Thứ Năm, 27 tháng 10, 2016

Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements part 10

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Beautiful, Curt. I mean don't quit your day job to start rappin', but beautiful. :-D
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    A rappin Curt......
    A well executed technical chart from Flux....
    A big green day.......

    Who could ask for a better TSLA day!

    Good fortunes everyone.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I confess to closing out some open calls when the stock was above $198. They were deep in the money, and liquidity was getting me worried down at the bottom of the stack. I'll look for a reentry point to get those dollars working again.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    we just tipped over $199 again, perhaps if we all sing together, it will top $200, LOL! I like the grateful dead's version better though, this one from 03/22/73
    Utica Memorial Auditorium - Utica, NY:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2M_qYs7T7hY&feature=kp
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What I dislike about spreads is that you essentially have to keep them till close to expiration to get close to max payout (or the stock price has to go way about the calls strike). I've thought about creating a spread also with my LEAPS but I have to be sure I want to keep it fairly close to expiration (which I might actually want to do for tax purposes in this case).

    Actually if you think about it this is probably an easy way to make a little money. You can buy 180/185 weekly spread right now for a little under $4 if you're sure the stock price will stay above $185 by the end of the week. Then you can cash that $1 as profit. Haven't done this but was just thinking about it.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I picked the strikes to make it risk free at almost zero cost erring on the side of taking profit. The 225 strikes are realistic if we get nhtsa, good guidance and excellent plan for battery. Remember that they are only ~10% above current price ;) and in any case I get the full profit on anything that's above the lower leg.

    fluxCap: likely will hold the leaps or hedge a portion. I don't really think the LEAPS playing is worthwhile for pre-post-ER, for that I use March options. But unlike the Q3 where I was burned I think I might secure some of my LEAPs pre-ER with high strike calls. But will decide then.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I watched it pass $200 premarket! It feels like the old days back when it passed $100 for the first time.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looks like some profit taking as well, which i understand and i am contemplating this as well. It's hard to be a strong long these days. Personally i am hoping for the SP to stay steady between the high 180 and under 200, just for my nerves sake. My gut feeling is that we might relive a runup before earnings and a selloff after earnings because some analysts forecast were missed. i hate that. what do you think ?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have a number of different thoughts I would like other opinions on (just please bear in mind that I'm a complete hack so my opinions are worth what you paid for them):

    - The quarterly report has a mystique about it dating back to Q1 2013, when alot of people made a ton of money when TSLA leaped upward and didn't look back, but that scenario is obviously not happening again.
    - Q2 2013 had a drop of 10 points two days before the report, then a 19 point rise which lasted for two days and then a drop of 8 points before TSLA resumed its steady climb.
    - Q3 2013 had a sharp rise leading into it and then a precipitous drop afterwards

    So, I'm not that excited about the report coming out. I think it will be a great report in terms of production, projected production, and margins but after the recent run-up I think a great report is expected. We also know that a gigafactory will be announced. While that could be great for the long-term, will the market instead react negatively if that means earnings will be diminished over the next three years because of investment in that factory?

    After the experience of the last two quarterly reports, I think alot of investors (me included) are going to want to take profits from the run-up and minimize risk from the report. If that is the case, we should see a peak sometime between today and Thursday with a downward correction leading into the report. I haven't a clue what will happen after the report comes out. What do you all think?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I so wish I could understand what causes the stock to shoot straight up like it is right now? I've never paid so much attention to a stock and never been aware of just how volatile things can be over a matter of a few moments with no apparent cause.

    I expected a much bigger down trend after touching $200 from profit taking... now we are knocking on $200 again. "the force is strong with this one"
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think that is a reasonable prediction. Of course anything can happen. If that does happen, though, I will probably buy options for the report. Right now I only have common stock. If the run up continues and we are still above 185 on earnings report day I will probably just keep my stock and not buy any options.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think that what is key is that countries and cities follow Norway and the US regarding the incentives. There has been a lot of development the last couple of months with renewable targets from EU, free duties on EVs in Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. China are also supporting EV, while the US and Europe are setting up their free trade deal. There is also only 6 days before ER, and a I think that a good NHTSA verdict is about to get priced in.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Glad to see TSLA back up. However, I have to admit that a part of me would prefer it if TSLA didn't finish above or anywhere near 200 today and resembling a hanging man candlestick. I'll even settle with finishing flat or even down a couple of points. The biggest reason is with earnings next week, I don't want to see the stock price run up into earnings with any kind of price baked in and expectations so high.

    Perhaps I'm still snake bit from Q3 earnings along with all those times I saw stocks like AAPL experience a run up like this before earnings only to see all of last month's gains disappear over night.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Anyone think we will stay above 200 longer this time?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    30 seconds? ;-)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There are less and less sellers at the $200 level.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What can be better then witnessing TSLA hit $200.00 exactly while listening to music in the Model S.

    We Go On from here :biggrin:

    image.jpg
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yea it looks like it's really pressing to get through.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Whoa, you can get live streaming quotes from google? So much for the rear camera being on the screen now :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think Tesla is disrupting Wall Street as much as the auto industry right now!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looks like there are some opportunists waiting until the last moment to sell their stock.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sensible strategy to delay. It wasn't clear at all whether TSLA was going to break out above $200 and do some serious open-field running.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thank you, Norse. Right, never sold a single share, but I believe I have company of several others here at TMC.
    Well, I thought I made the Model S and the Model X, but I completely forgot about the taxes ;) I will try to gain some more, by joining the lottery.
    By the way, I sold my 2nd week2 180 call for $19 today, nice gain for less than a week. Didn't have the stomach to let it run further. Sold the 1st week4 190 for $14,50, will let the 2nd run some time ...
    Good luck to you too :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    TMC is full of people that made one correct gutsy call and got set for life. ;)

    It still amazes me every time I watch these analysts videos. My thoughts are always the same "they just don't get it".

    Remember the first iPod? They said it didn't have enough battery life and couldn't go "the distance".

    I just got another email yesterday from a friend, "Do you think it's too late to buy the stock?". I should forward him the one I got from a friend last year asking the same question saying "$32 is just too expensive." He didn't buy.

    I can't believe the dude in the video said it could stay here or go back to $100.

    And the guy in the other video shouting short it, it's crazy, they can't make that much profit."

    Will they still say things like this 5 years from now?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    How about witnessing TSLA hit $200.00 exactly while listening to music in the Model S, while taking a picture and NOT getting into an accident :tongue:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was parked :wink:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I've been asking around. The ones on TMC are mostly on their 4th or 6th black swan event that they got right. It just seems like thye rose to fame in one shot. But to be a comfortable millionaire, you still need ag least a $100 000 investment at Tesla's ipo which is not trivial for middle class. Now imagine a conservative allocation for a risk asset like tesla, most ppl would put no more than 10% of their net worth in it. Which means that most of those who made 1 million + on tesla were Already millionaires.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So was I. In the kitchen. Screen Shot 2014-02-11 at 8.31.09 AM.png
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Made an excellent discovery last night :D I had at some point bought $200 Feb 21st calls as pre-ER play. Now that TSLA has had a run up I've been making most of my ER plays risk free or taken profit, but somehow I had deleted those calls from my watchlist meaning that over the last week I never saw them progress. Last night while going over my positions I discovered them to my great surprise and was happy to see that my initial investment of $4.2 / contract had turned into $13 / contract :D Had I remembered them earlier I'd have probably closed them on Friday for profit, but because I forgot I enjoyed selling them when TSLA hit $200 :D Well I sold half and made the other half 200..225 risk free with pocketing ca 25% of the initial investment as cash.

    Yay for forgetfulness. I'm now 30% cash on my portfolio and about 40% TSLA with majority of it being LEAPs. I also consolidated my 2015 LEAPs from 140,180,210 strikes to 300. Will have to think if that's a good idea or not ;) If the ER is positive it should be. But maybe instead of N at 300 I should have N/2 at a lower strike...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Congrates on forgetfulness! And welcome to the J15 $300 party. I've had a bunch of these for a long while along with another set of J15 $250s. Those expire right around the potential GENIII reveal at the NA Auto show. Just sayin
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Maybe somewhat off topic - Tuesday night was a presidential dinner with Pres. Hollande of France at the White House, guess who was on the guest list?

    Mr. Elon Musk, Los Angeles, CA
    Mrs. Talulah Musk
    Hollandes State Dinner: The Guest List - Washington Wire - WSJ

    Didn�t they divorce in 2012? Has this something to do with "Everyhting is awesome?" :)?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Toyota announces a recall of 1.9million Priuses for a software update. It would be nice if someone could think of a way to send out software updates in a non-physical manner, is anyone working on a technology like that? You know, some sort of inter-device network. What could we call it...

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/12/toyota-recall-idUST9N0KP02J20140212

    Here we are with the car which was supposedly the most high-tech car of the last decade, and it doesn't even know how to use the internet for software. Does anyone doubt how slow the rest of the auto industry is to learn new things?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Elon needs Talulah to keep him from going king crazy. However as a shareholder. Some of the most insane growths in stock prices are from when Elon is not married. So I am torn. On one side, I want Elon to be happy, on the other I want him to make mi richer.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not to pry on their marital situation, but, I think both Talulah and Elon have figured out what works. I think she's indeed helping him not go king crazy while giving him the room he needs (i.e. work 80-hour weeks). He must be happy to have her presence in the boys' lives as well. So, in balance, I think she's helping Tesla's (and SpaceX's) cause.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    First world problem: If TSLA keeps going up now, the Norwegian government will stop giving me scholarship for my studies... :confused:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    While I generally agree with your point, a lucky options strategy could have yielded a huge return. As I recall, someone posted that he had achieved a 7000% return on a very small starting wager. Such a strategy isn't always scalable, though, because TSLA options don't have the liquidity to absorb really large investments. We already see very wide bid-ask spreads in OTM call options.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Within Wall Street the title VP isn't very far up the food chain. Still, a nice promotion.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow didn't know that. Are traders higher than vp? Googling doesn't show me the real food chain.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    2015 $200. I think I saw that post as well. I faintly remember that the premium of those far otm options didn't reflect the volatility of the stock and the stock was hovering around $100 at the time. The premiums were like $10 or something. I suspect the person and his brother were experienced options traders though.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Was thinking about tesla poaching a lot of talent from aapl. It'd not be possible if jobs is still with us. Do you guys think there are consequences of this?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Relative to poaching from Apple, I think Tesla will continue to brain-drain from other companies and attract the very best minds for some time now. This is especially true of engineering talent at old ICE companies. If you are a highly talented person and see that your company is only half interested in compliance vehicles, you will be eager to get to where the innovative action is. This will continue to be to Tesla's good well into the future.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Have you not heard the saying, 'Behind every great man is a great woman'?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Employees at investment banks/broker dealers typically have a role and a level. VP is a level within a hierarchy (usually analyst, associate, AVP, VP, Director, Managing Director, or similar). Trader would be someone's role. You could be a trader at a VP level etc.

    In a vain attempt to stay on topic, looks like we are going sideways-ish after a few days of excitement.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think Justine probably deserves that position, since I expect she is doing 95% of the child rearing of those 5 boys. Maybe Justine is mother-in-chief and Talulah is also helping in his personal life. Good arrangement if you can get it...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agreed. Tesla's continued ability to draw away talented staff is a great retort to shorts. You and I are just investing money; these hires are investing their careers and are undoubtedly receiving a non-trivial part of their comp in at-the-money options. If these new hires didn't see big upside from shifting to Tesla, why would they leave their current jobs with great employers?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, my guess is that we need good q4 to pierce the $200. The other good piece of news that can do it is NHTSA. I think a good china reservation number surprise will shoot the stock up to $300. By that I mean if they have 20k reservations in china. Which is unlikely.

    back to my interest. In a normal corp, vp are officers and usually shareholders. Managing directors and directors usually sits on the board. I am guessing it is not the same on wall street and none of them holds significant shares?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I might have made a mistake selling at 199....

    I have bought a lot of shares over the last 9 months. The last round of purchases I had made were 250 shares at 172 several months ago. I panicked when the stock fell after that, but held on. Yesterday when it hit 199.70 I sold those 250 shares and took my profits. Then I placed a buy order for 250 shares at 180, thinking I will make another 10% when it drops back down to 180 and then rebounds in a few months. However, I'm worried now that it won't come back down to 180, and I will have lost the future growth of 250 shares of stock. :redface: I don't know how you day traders do it! My one trade trying to time the market is killing me.... :eek: It will come back down to 180 at some point..., right???? :confused:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    Yes, VP's are different on Wall St in most large companies at least. There are large numbers of people at the VP level across a firm and they would not be the most senior in the department. They may participate in the company share plan but would not be a significant shareholder. VP on Wall St. is less senior, and more abundant than in a start-up for example.

    Indeed, still some catalysts on deck.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I hope not, as I still have my shares, but if there is anything I can guarantee, its that nobody knows what the market will do in the future.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    when we crossed 100 it never really came back down. Check the short term thread for 2013 for approximately 7000 posts saying "dang, I hope the stock goes down a bit so I can get back in".
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    not to be too caustic but i suspect any speculation on his private life should be off bounds and would encourage the moderators to enforce that. its not much different when the shorts tried to make case about his private life. private life is ...well private.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    rd, I understand how those swings may look tempting. Tesla is the second stock I've taken a large position in with the intent to hold on for long term upside as you alluded to.

    here's my approach... core shares, I don't sell. what do I do? on big drops, I load up on some extra shares for trading. if you have the buying power to do this, your core shares are always in the stock, but you can take advantage of silly selloffs by buying and selling on a quick rebound, sometimes as little as hours, sometimes months for me. silly selloffs being ones based on irrational behavior (think zooming in on 5 weeks of fire frequency rather than a year plus of data...). of course, it takes work to understand a company's value well enough to recognize the difference between a silly selloff and a right sized sell offs based on news that will really effect long term picture.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I would place a buy order for 150 shrs @ $190 (good chance of hitting hit this week) then 30 minutes after the market opens on the Feb 20th buy 150 shrs at market.

    Having a game plan will be more profitable then emotional day trading for most.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    We toyed with the idea of stock playing over the past year. My original purpose for buying shares was to take the profit after a few years and buy a Model S, or a Model E whichever came first (enough profit, or 2017), plus, support the company in actually getting to a Model E. We're very conservative and generally protect our initial investments (by cashing in our initial stake and continuing investment on the profits). The volatility has given us some tense moments, but in the end our decision was/is to hold long in support of the company's vision, including our original stake. I have no idea why the stock is bouncing around so much... but I'm a firm believer in "never assume a conspiracy when mere stupidity would explain it". Besides supporting Tesla's vision, I wouldn't be able to mentally take the wild swings short term if I was buying and selling on downs/ups. I understand your pain.

    [subnote: I threw out my "wait" plan last month and grabbed a Model S, purely in further support of Tesla's vision to the Model E of course :)]
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Short Term TSLA Investor Social Chat

    What the first stock?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You have my sympathy. I sweated selling (at least some) near the new ATH but in the end didn�t. Why would it go much above 200 when the CEO says it�s overvalued? Why won�t it just keep going up as production continues to increase? In the end I convince myself that these �small movements� since the 10th are just that and my pot is just not big enough be worth trading on them. 180? 200? in the end will it be enough to matter?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
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    guest
    Cheeky, carrying a Union Jack purse to a State Dinner honoring the President of France.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I would say that a VP in a bank is the equivalent to a Director title in a more normal operating company. Bank VPs do not lead departments and do not sit on any sort of management committee. In fact you can have several VPs in the same department reporting to one or two "Managing Directors." A Managing Director title is more equivalent to an operating company VP title as they would be responsible for a given department, including budgets, P&Ls, strategy & then also sit on the more broad corporate committees.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Someone could have bought just a few 35 or 40 strike LEAPs over a year ago(which I know many people were dong with TSLA), then at the start of the short squeeze about a year ago converted them all to a lot of cheap 6-month out 75 call options and made a fortune just from those two option trades alone. I know someone who made about a 10,000% return on their 4k IRA acct from doing this trade-up, it's a gamble but can pay off. They also say they bought a bunch of Jan 2016 250 LEAPs for about $15 each in Nov.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    "Mr. President, mind if I plug my car in? I need a charge!" :wink:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Did you notice that Elon is carrying what looks like a billet d'amour - wonder who for? :rolleyes:

    Edited: Of course, it's a charge card. D'uh. :redface:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Dave, the first stock was Celgene. I don't own it anymore, but it would have huge swings like Tesla. After a couple of years of getting annoyed at baseless drops, I developed that strategy of buying extra shares whenever I thought it entered silly undervalued territory, and I had many years of some nice trading gains on top of core share appreciation. I do this less with Tesla to try to let me focus on life outside of the stock market (which can be a challenge with such a compelling company as Tesla).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I said this yesterday:



    With TSLA trading flat today, I'm feeling a little more comfortable going into earnings next week.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    We sure could use some NHTSA good news soon.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't know if there is alot of upside since I think good news is the expectation, but it would probably be best if it came out after the quarterly report, since that is the 800 pound gorilla in the room right now.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    +1!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    On Wall St. it goes from Analyst to Associate to VP to Director to Managing Director. And then you have to higher up positions after that.

    VP is like a middle of the road position, but it is a lot more lucrative than being a very high up person in a normal company. Some VP's can still make over a million dollars per year, and virtually all of them make more than $250k.

    Banks pay a lot, because you work extremely long hours, such as 100h/week sometimes and a minimum of 70 hours per week, and some positions a minimum of 80 hours per week.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm thinking Elon has the results already and is going to release them during earnings, and because he's waiting till earnings they must be something special. Something more than just "no recall" but also a comment from the NHTSA that because of the batteries the metal objects were not able to penetrate the underbody thus saving the drivers lives, and they intend on implementing new laws that require all cars to have batteries on the bottom and be electric ..

    ..okay so maybe I got a little carried away :smile: I do think Elon will release them during earnings though.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I looked back and investigation started or at least announced nov 19. Funny coincidence that report is exactly three months after that.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yep, and for junior analysts / associates those hours can mean working the equivalent of two $40k a year jobs every week, which you could also do working at, you know, Kinko's or something. Had many friends in b-school who told me of the meat grinder on the Street. Can be lucrative, but not before you put your time in I guess.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think that at this point NHTSA announcement most likely will come after ER, it is unlikely to be released just three business days before the call. The release week or so after the ER might be very beneficial in sustaining the rally...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agreed. At this point it'll happen after ER. Yep, this can help sustain TSLA post ER.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Unless there is some news of which I am unaware, it looks like TSLA's antics this morning are just exaggerated tracking of NASDAQ.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    thats my view. There seems to be a rotation back into previous momentum stocks (FB, NFLX, PCLN, TSLA...)
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    guest
    Whoa� holding steady over 200 now.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Fun read, Curt. Thanks.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm feeling lucky -- trimmed some speculative shares (i.e., non-core holdings) at $202.50. Not quite the tippy-top, but close enough. Now, just need to time redeploying that capital back in.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Are you thinking of options or common?

    After i rearranged my deep itm feb and march options first thing this am I almost bought 195 strike weeklies this am when the stock was in the 193's but didn't. I had some work I had to get done and figured I wouldn't be missing out on much because I didn't think it would get above 198 (which was break even) today. I haven't even looked to see what they are worth now. IMO when I don't buy something I was thinking of buying and it runs up like this it's just better to put my head in the sand and not look.

    I'm glad I rearranged this am though. Going from deep itm to slightly otm on a no reason pullback is great.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Probably long-dated call / LEAPS, and probably not until after the earnings call. The IV is placing a huge premium on calls right now that I expect will moderate after the ER. Of course, I may be missing out on some big upside after the ER, but I still have a substantial long position. I'm happy to hear clever ideas from others, though.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Scream "Tesla f*re" outside CNBC's studios within earshot of Rick Santelli, give him a case of 5-hour energy drinks, pick up some calls before he knows what happened? :)

    Other than that, IV's going to crush any potential bargains in call options before ER, I think. I've been hunting but not finding anything attractive.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I haven't done anything further out than march lately the iv is way too high right now. I'm planning on selling half my near term before the ER if we go much higher than this. If we don't then just selling 1/4. Then after the iv collapses the next day I want to move most of my short term to long term. I hope that's a good strategy. I'm still a noob at options so we shall see.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I sold 1/3 of my Feb22 165s and 170s today when we topped $202. That was my break even point. I will be watching pre ER, if we spike up to over 206 (arbitrary number) before ER 1/3 more will go. I have no basis for this plan. But I am someone that has to have a plan.

    I have several deep ITM Jan15 LEAPS and my core stock holding that I plan on keeping unless a very negative catalyst occurs.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That's pretty funny. I am very goal oriented but I force myself to not set hard number goals with my stock investments. I only have one goal and that is to keep the trend going up. If I set a hard number goal and start to fall short of it I'm afraid I would get too aggressive (I'm already extremely aggressive) to try and obtain it and start taking unnecessary risk to get there.

    We just watched a movie on netflix last night called "the brass teapot", the psychological progression that takes over the couple is interesting and could easily apply to stock market trading.

    I'm not selling any leaps either, they too are my core tsla holding, especially the deep in the money ones. I'm hoping to significantly increase my leap position in the next two weeks.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I offloaded my Feb 28 192.50's end of day today. Still holding multi strike ITM LEAPS and Mar 22 175's in the tax-free account. My justification today? I could walk away with nearly 100% now, or hang for 200% ...or 0% in a week. I just have no idea how things are going to play up to earnings, but I'll at least have some capital to deploy on a dip.

    Besides, I need to do my taxes and I think the government is going to be looking for some money from me :(
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That's why I installed more solar last year and bought the best car in the world. Well that was one of the reasons. The main reason is because both are the right thing to do. :D
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I've sold all my options and instead bought some long term shares for my core position. If earnings is a blowout I think it's possible we could never be less then 200 again so I wanted to take advantage of getting shares at this price. I'm going to wait to buy calls till after earnings because as everyone has noticed they are just really expensive. I made a killing this past week so I am in no rush to gamble it all away on an earnings that could really go either way. I am going into earnings fairly conservatively, though I would like to see a blowout report or else we may be stuck below 200 for a while.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So is anyone else thinking we might get a massive dip and rebound tomorrow? I might try and time the bottom for a day trade if it looks that way. If I was more experienced I might try to buy a put to catch the drop.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I honestly don't think there will be much of a drop due to this story... the shorts are running out of ammo. Remember the adapter "recall" news that came out after the stock jumped ~$15 after NAIAS? It did basically nothing... if anything it reinforced the superiority of Tesla over how other manufacturers do recalls. This fire didn't have anything to do with the Tesla since it was apparently untouched by the fire (the electrical parts and battery anyway)... it could have been faulty wiring, arson, or maybe the ICE that was parked next to it.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My first profit taking in TSLA: this morning I sold covered calls on all of my TSLA shares acquired in March 2013, that is about half of my TSLA shares.

    The calls are Mar21st 2014, strike 250. I picked the call date that takes me out of short term capital gains in case I have to surrender the shares and strike that will likely leave me with intact TSLA share ownership post March 2014, as I am still very bullish TSLA for 2014.

    It felt much riskier becoming TSLA long one year ago than it feels now. I guess the reward is commensurate with the risk.

    Ah, I should say thanks, so thank you TMC contributors, Elon and John Broder!:tongue:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The fact that Tesla offered to cover costs, and that the owner refused are both a little puzzling. The former implies either a ridiculous level of customer service... or some sense of possibly contributing to the problem. The latter could be any of. "No, don't be silly, it's my fault. No, you've already done enough for me, and by the way, the car is awesome. No, there was minimal damage. Or, more ominously, No way, Jose, I'll see you in court. Or: No way, I'm not going to be bought off, I'm going to the media with this."

    Would love to know the full story. Until there's a little more clarity, I'm guessing we'll be off $10+ tomorrow. (and I hereby rename myself Irrational Pessimist.)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The thing is though, it has already been repeated once and the general public is not going to call to confirm it like people here have. And people tend to panic quickly. I do agree with you though and it's obvious that the article is very poorly written. It's just that some people might panic and cascading through some tight stops could happen.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm expecting a small dive tomorrow, but this could go either way, since the news articles state that the battery and charging systems were not touched by the flre.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's possible... but the nice thing about the timing of this is that investors can read the details of the story for themselves and make their own conclusions, whereas if it were in the middle of the day, they might just stop at the headlines.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Elon guaranteed Tesla would cover "fire damage".
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's entirely possible that we have here a case of a decent, intelligent human being (shocking!) who has refused to request damages for an incident he is certain had nothing to do with the awesome Tesla Model S in his garage, and therefore doesn't want to take unfair advantage of the generosity of Elon, Jerome and crew. Just my current theory.

    Don't get me wrong, I'll be more than happy to snap up some cheap calls tomorrow if I get the chance, but so far in AH trading this looks like the non-event it is.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I've never done puts either. However, I expect a small drop but remember that the 'shorts' are going to give the stock support because they see that 200 is not far off and they know that the ER and Guidance will be positive. In addition, there are many TSLA longs that will stay the course and buy more as the shorts and TM has put more cash in our pockets to buy more shares. I sold 1/3 of my shares with the first 'problem' and all shares with the 'third'. Bought back near the bottom. I will not sell shares this time. I am confident that merely putting the words Tesla and fire in the same article will not result in a big dip...and if it does I will be buying this time, not selling. I believe this is the sentiment of many here.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I wonder how the bots will react though� if they are programmed to simply read headlines and react, they might dump shares regardless of context or merit.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I say TSLA closes above $200 tomorrow.

    If it falls to $194, I am buying. If it were to go to $186, I am going in very big.

    But I don't think it will get anywhere close to there. This fire story is just a great shake out of the weak longs. This is the perfect setup for ER. Need to shake out the weak ones...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Love it.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm not selling tsla either. I have some cash though that is waiting to go to work. If it's a huge drop then I will likely sell some solar.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Probably the same cash I have. Good weeklies from the Auto show!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, the bots do react to headlines, and that's why we saw the dip down to $193 in after-hours, before it recovered to $197. I have the same opinion as sleepy. We might see some selling from weak longs at the start, but should reverse quickly as investors realize what's really going on. That could cause shorts to start covering when they realize their "story" isn't gaining the traction they were hoping for.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So, we potentially have 3 trading days (prior to earnings after the bell on Wednesday) to watch the turbulence. I'm going to bet it goes down until insiders get the earnings pdf around 1pm Wednesday EST (assuming no other details emerge until then).

    Going to watch the call prices drop and find a nice happy place to buy ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think this story might have some legs. The problem being is that the owner states that car was not charging and he had just got done driving it. The problems I see is that people are going to start believe that this car is going to spontaneously combust. Similiar to the the fiasco that Fisker had. Now I'm not saying that is what happen but the public will interpret the story this way. This could be a big PR problem if it gains traction. The other fires where easily contributed to an outside force. Hopefully Tesla will clarify tomorrow. With all that being said I will be buying on the dip!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not sure what you mean by that.... Earnings are usually out after the closing bell at 4:00pm EST right? Are they announcing it in the middle of the day this time? I highly doubt that...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If you look at the intra-day trading on Wednesday, there will most likely be a sharp buy/sell/activity around 1pm. I've noticed this on several of the last earnings. I'm making a guess that some insiders either get an advanced copy of the earnings pdf or somehow get wind of the jist of the pdf.

    But you are right, the pdf is not 'published' on the ir.teslamotors.com site until after the bell.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No way stuff like this happens.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I started buying at 196 in after market trading. I think we've been in the 198 range for long enough that people who wanted to unload have (me included) and I see the emergence of another fire story as a reduction in risk. If each time a fire story breaks, the drop is a mere 5 dollars, it encourages me to buy more. I have been fearing a short attack at the 200 level and it looks like this is it. I would also be buying tons of options at the 185 range. I think the fact that we all speak of buying more indicates that there is appetite for shares, and the most risky of us will be the ones buying at as little as a 2 dollar dip.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    yes, tomorrow will be a real interesting day to see how much short vs. long balance as shifted. like many of you, I'll be looking for entry points tomorrow but i'm pretty happy with my long setup so if I don't see real bargains I don't feel the need to extend my current position.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You bought my shares then at 196. I have loads of exposure with calls still, but I expect an overreaction today as a dip down in the morning, correcting in the afternoon. a 5% dip wouldn't be an outlandish guess and from 199 that gets you to the 190ish range. I will be looking to rebuy there if Schwab will let me come out of the settled-funds-only doghouse.

    ...and its 198 in pre-market. I hope I am wrong and the market shrugs this off. THAT will be a very bullish sign indeed (as others have noted) since it indicates a certain "thick skin" for new incidents.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Going to try puts? Not for me. I may sell covered calls. Would be a first time for me.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yep, I bought 1 192.50, my first put ever. I think that might be $45 + fees I won't see again. I was really hoping for a sharp pull back then recovery, not for the put but for the calls I wanted to buy for today.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow, really strong. That is $45 I won't see again. Guess I should have bought some calls 1 strike out.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Can you explain the trading spikes? It is just a theory and I'm open to other theories.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Multiple fire stories showing in the summary in Yahoo Finance, and we have this strong opening. Would have liked a few more discount shares, but I like this more. We'll see if it holds...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    mershaw2001: I would like my shares back at 196, please sir. I will write you a check.
    �
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