Thứ Bảy, 29 tháng 10, 2016

TSLA Investor Discussions part 35

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Could this boost in stock price tomorrow be the catalyst for a short squeeze? Small issue but does remove some uncertainty
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Still no jump in volume. I'd imagine there must be a bump in volume to begin the squeeze.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Fallout from the Massachusettes dealers lawsuit being eviscerated a few weeks ago, IMHO. The application was being slow-walked to give the dealers time to fight it out in court. That litigation has now been reduced to zombie status, and once dismissed Tesla would be free to put legal pressure on Natick for holding up an application for reasons already dismissed by the courts. So this is just them recognizing reality.

    Natick selectmen grant license to Tesla cars - Framingham, MA - The MetroWest Daily News

    Presumably, the next move for the dealers will be to tap friendly legislaters to move a bill modeled on the one passed in Colorado. But that is a year away, assuming it can even succeed.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Or you could just move to NJ where there is no sales, use, or luxury tax on zero-emission vehicles ;)

    I am hoping this win in MA pushes any investors with doubts that are still holding out over the edge and finally realize that Tesla is the way of the future and to get in now before the short squeeze explodes the stock.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Up to 35.15$ now...

    Darn, to sell or not to sell???

    I'll resist my urges and stick to my plan - long TSLA.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Quiet boards this AM. I'm surprised there's not more chatter, given the solid rise in TSLA this morning. Nice to see the stock >$35.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am holding out for it to go below 33 dollars. I was waiting for a sub 31 price but I feel like that may not happen. Though I am not well versed in investing so who knows! I don't have any limits so I will play this by ear. Definitely glad its going up, but I wish I had more in. :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    its a good breakout morning on volume.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Definitely good morning (currently at 35.12). Market cap over $4b now. I'm glad I bought my full position last month. If I was in the market to buy, I'd think a $33-34 range would be a good deal now. Of course the market can always change (ie., TSLA goes down) but I think probability has it that TSLA is on the way up (especially with increased production).

    Btw, do you guys think whether or not there's a fiscal cliff resolution will affect TLSA's stock price at all?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No thanks, I'll stick to MA. You have enough issues in NJ, don't count on no sales tax forever.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If we go off the "Cliff" the whole market will go down and TSLA with a higher beta (more volatile) will go down more and visa versa. However, I do not see it going much below 29 unless fundamentals change.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Does anyone think the $7500 tax credit might go on the chopping block as a cost-cutting measure? I haven't heard one way or the other, but it seems that some politicians love to knock anything "green" (except money). Do we know how much the credit adds up to per year on a national basis? Obviously losing the credit would take a bite out of the stock price.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think the volotility will remain. My plan is to sell around $40 (not all - Thanks Cit-T) during peaks, and buy more on the downs (around 30-33). I'm guessing we won't go much below upper 20's now. I think sub-25 is pretty much extinguished for the most part, unless something changes.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I haven't heard any proposal to that effect (and I've been keeping my ears open for one), but it's the sort of credit that you could imagine gets cut in some last-minute, back-room negotiation as part of a big package. I'm certain that somewhere on Capitol Hill there's a long list of deductions and credits, along with projections for how much they impact revenues. I guess the good news is that there haven't been a lot of takers for the EV credit so far.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'll keep preaching it.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    if they cut Ev taxcredit, I hope they cut also petrol taxcredit

    they will be in the black in no time then
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    hedged out 1/4 of postion by selling dec 35 calls this morning for 1.00.

    edit:
    nice volume today
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just curious: Can you explain your thinking?

    As I see it, you're committing to selling 1/4 of your TSLA shares for an effective $36 within a week and change, but the stock was trading above $35.50 when you made this trade. If the stock doesn't stay above $34 in the next week, you're down versus selling right now, but if the stock goes above $36 you're down versus waiting. What am I missing?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The fiscal cliff has a couple of different effects that need to be considered.

    First, the capital gains tax rate will be going up to ~21.2% in 2013 (see note). Second, my current take is that Republicans are going to pass the Senate bill to immunize the middle class from the scheduled tax increases. Then we will roll over the cliff with all the scheduled cuts from the sequester, as well as the other cuts which both parties agreed to during the last fight over the debt limit.

    The tax increases that will pass through probably (IMHO) wont affect the economy directly in the near term, but might put a downward drag on the market. However, the scheduled austerity is enough to push us into recession, in very much the same way that austerity has thrown the EU into recession in the last year. That is not an immediate issue, and a deal in January or February can probably avoid it altogether, as Obama will likely front load agency spending to smooth things out.

    The critical issue is that Republicans appear to be taking this tack (passing the Senate bill, allowing >$250k tax rates to rise) in an effort to gain leverage by shifting the debate past the fiscal cliff and onto the debt ceiling, which is going to be reached sometime between January and March. This increases the potential damage from the cliff as the parties extend the bargaining period, and opens the country up to the possibility of an unprecedented government shutdown and potential default on U.S. debt obligations.

    Just the possibility of this tanked the economy in mid 2011, and the same will happen this time, only it will happen in the context of a major (and increasing) fiscal drag from having gone over the cliff.

    Worse, if we actually do move past the cliff and turn the debt ceiling into an issue, there is every indication that the Democrats will refuse to even negotiate this time around. Unlike last time they appear to have an economic and political strategy in place in the event that we hit the borrowing limit. It is unclear to me whether their strategy involves Hail Mary efforts to bypass the limit (via platinum coins or the 14th amendment option), or just a really granular plan to shut down most of the government in a way that most limits damage to their constituencies.

    Either way, I expect to see chaos in the market as the government at all levels of the country (state and local as well) are forced to shut down or curtail operations. A huge portion of our GDP will just cease until we see a resolution, and the knock on effects are likely to be even worse.

    Regardless, unless we get an agreement by the end of this year, or very early in January, we are likely to see a massive increase in risk for stocks in general. In the worst (or even not so worst) case scenarios there will be real economic impacts that could result in reduced sales for Tesla. And if Republicans decide to pull the trigger on the debt limit, I really believe Democrats will let them this time. We literally do not have a precedent for the potential chaos and damage to the global economy that could result.

    For my part, I've made a lot of money in TSLA in the last couple of months. I expect to lock in my 15% rate on most of those gains over the next couple of weeks as I finish closing out my position by the end of the year. TSLA is a beautiful stock, and it will still be beautiful in a few months when we have some clarity about these issues. It's entirely reasonable to just ignore these issues and stick with the stock, hoping that Washington will sort things out. But I'm not a sophisticated investor. I bought low, and now its time to sell high.

    Note: The Bush rate of 15% expires, pushing the rate up to the 20% level set by Clinton in '98. Also (albeit with less certainty on my part) there is a surcharge of (I think) 1.2% that is being implemented as a result of the ACA. The last part might only be affecting folks with incomes over $250,000, but I haven't verified that with my accountant.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I believe republicans will cave. Once Obama gets what he wants he also assumes full blame for results. So far he has Teflon coat but can't blame another recession on bush. If we go over cliff to easy to blame republican house. If they continue to fight him they actually will be giving excuse. He is not running but of course as most politicians he is unable to stop and his ratins will affect next democratic candidate. Cliff will hurt all companies but tesla with low volume cars to affluent will not be hurt as much and it may present interesting buying opportunity. If you get out you might miss short squeeze that could occur with a run up with deal. Difficult decisions for difficult times
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    at support here.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agree that the company would probably be fine, but that doesn't mean the stock will. It will get crushed, more so than the rest of the market, in all likelihood.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    profit takers today.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Seems like a big and sudden drop.

    Edit: seems like something must be up. This is the biggest one day drop in quite some time. The stock hovered around the same price all day yesterday, so it seems odd suddenly this morning everyone would take profit and drive the stock down.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Could be some investors splitting their investment and taking some of it over to SCTY. If they want shares there and don't want to be over-exposed to Elon.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Crammer tried as best as he could to get more info out of Elon this morning on TSLA's future. Small note if you choose not to watch the video. Crammer said he *almost* bought a Model S.

    Too Much Nonsense About : Tesla CEO
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Probably playing up Solarcity IPO I totally forgot about that.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This what I tried to do. Put in the buy order of SCTY at $8.90 but never got any! This sucks seeing SCTY is at $12+ now! Oh well, I can buy back in to TSLA at a lower price.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Elon said he'd love to give numbers about model s production.

    Got into solar city at 10 this morning.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    On the way down already? Time to think about buying. Anyone have an opinion on how much farther we have to fall? I'm not sure yet.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I suck at timing. I should have exited yesterday. I was doing so good but held on too long and got killed today. I took my losses and exited everything before it got any worse.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    given the average volume, I do think it is possible there is nothing substantial up. my gut says a little better than 50/50 nothing really material is going on (perhaps a brokerage report painting doom and gloom about fiscal cliff and EV credit, or something like that, but not an actual event today).

    (source: 12 years owning a volatile biotech stock)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think it might be related to the SolarCity IPO - people selling Tesla shares to take advantage of the low price on SolarCity. As mentioned, volume isn't very high and the decline has been very gradual.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Do we have a thread for Solar City? I didn't see one at a quick glance.

    While I'm bullish on Tesla, I'm worried about Solar City:
    - Cost of their goods is increasing due to US import duties.
    - Cost to their consumers is increasing due to reduced gov incentives.
    - Cost of competition, like electricity produced from Natural Gas, is decreasing.

    I know a few people who work in the solar industry. None of them have solar installations, and when asked why, they all said because it doesn't yet make economic sense. Yes, not a scientific sampling, but still.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You didn't list my #1 concern: relatively low barriers to entry. What is to stop some multi-national corporation from buying up a bunch of local installers and partnering with a bank to do the same thing SolarCity is doing? I don't know.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I'm going to pick some some back up. This is just too good to pass on.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    *sigh*, biggest one day drop since when? That fluke "executives are leaving" thing?

    I had actually planned to take the "sell some on the way up" advice this morning, but by the time I got to my desk and looked the stock had dropped significantly. Guess I should have still sold as it just kept dropping. There's no point in selling now though, I'm almost underwater.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Order filled at $33.05. I think that's a good day at the office. Sorry for you guys that had a rough day. I hope tomorrow is better.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nice move Citizen-T. You got in just before it shot back up. Or maybe you bought enough to skew the number? :wink:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The world may never know...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I imagine you set a buy order at $33 and it executed at $33.05? Did you SWAG that number? I was looking for $32 based on 200 day moving average.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I just picked up a little bit more at $32.86. I'm happy :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I set a buy order at $33.05, the market price was $33.04 at the time. I effectively wanted it for market price but never ever ever do market orders. And yes, it was an impulse buy. I didn't have a number in mind, it just felt right.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If you're talking about TSLA volume, a lot must have happened in the last two hours. Over 2.1 M volume for the day.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    LOL.. well that was fast. Triggered every sell order I set on Tuesday and took my TSLA position to zero. I had planned on a gradual sell off into what I hoped would be a continued updraft over the next couple of weeks. Instead, my triggers ended up selling off everything over about 8 minutes at around 9:40am ET.

    I have no opinion on how far it'll fall. I always felt that the ~$28 I paid was a fair price, and thats what the big money on WS priced the stock at 2 months ago. In terms of potential it should be much higher, but the price becomes speculative and volatile once you move beyond the near term value of the company.

    I am less concerned ATM about where it'll fall to in the next couple of weeks. TSLA was my mad money that I speculate with. At this point I am concerned with making prudent changes to the 2/3rds of my investments that I normally dont mess with because they are what I am counting on for retirement.

    The potential for Republican brinkmanship and Democratic pushback on the debt ceiling has me feeling that the entire market is looking over exposed at this point. Plus, while Cap Gains are going to 21.2%, taxes on dividends are scheduled to go to the new top rate of 39.2%(!!). I support that (sorta), but it makes me think my big safe investments are about to be overvalued.

    So at this point, I'm dusting off my matress and installing a nice, safe looking, comforter on it because I'm fixin to stuff a lot of money under it until I get clarity on tax policy and some resolution to the potential debt ceiling standoff.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think there are two. Here's one: Solar City IPO - Page 3
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Personally, I think thats a great price 3-6 months from now, which in a rational world means it should be a great price right now.

    My issue is that I am a survivalist type, who literally drives around with a fair sized tool box and 2 cases of water, high density ration bricks and assorted other gear in the truck of my car. Just in case. I'll take a peek outta my bunker in a month or two and if the world still exists I'd probably be happy to pick up TSLA @ ~$33.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I wonder if a lot of people had limit buy orders at $33 that got executed today, like mine did. Looks like the downward trend stopped right at about $33, with the high volume right around that time. As long as it goes back up tomorrow, I'm happy. :biggrin:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sept 25, 2012 - not even 3 months ago: down 9.78%. Today down only 4.68%

    That was when they announced they weren't going to 5000 cars this year. Remember now? :eek:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ah, yea, I actually flipped back to that area in the Google finance stuff, but the resolution of the stats gets poor as you go back so I couldn't tell if that was in one day.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think if you believe in TSLA long term, trading in and out of the stock doesn't buy you much.
    If your buying and selling on small movements, long term you're more likely to be out than in, as you'll probably miss the small upward movements, and it will probably get away from you, longterm.

    If there is a real short squeeze, and it moves $5-10 (or more) in a day or two, you might miss that selling opportunity and really kick yourself for being so shortsighted.

    If TSLA is the next Google or Apple, I'd rather stay in it and it not sweat the smaller daily market movements (%5 is small for TSLA), it's just not worthwhile.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is sort of the holy grail, sought, but not yet found :). Were it to happen, how fast will things move? I've read up on the VW squeeze, but I had a hard time finding detailed info on how the stock moved over the squeeze period.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Here's a pretty good summary, written just a few days after the squeeze: http://www.economist.com/node/12523898
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    W VW short squeeze will not happen with TSLA IMO. That was unique because of the massive single ownership of stock relative to short. With TSLA he short position is a large but less than VW % of e public owned float. As soon as the stock rises during a squeeze the selling will begin to accommodate. It already is Just read the sellers on this board selling at 35 levels. If it gets to 40 many will sell filling the short positions. Short will squeeze and bring the price higher, but no where near the VW example. It's only being used as an template for TSLa because both make cars - that's a mistake, they have no relation to each other. I too believe the squeeze will happen, but not at the VW levels. My guess is it may push and extra 20% out of the stock price. Remember the 'long short' will stay short and not cover believing that EV will simply not survive long term (starkly opposite of anything producing the VW short)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Unless TSLA continues upwards at a slow and steady pace, reservations keep increasing, they must increase production, run a 2nd shift, etc. The shorts are paying interest on the money they are borrowing, eventually they MUST cover. Only a fool would let this get away from them. you see, TSLA might actually be successful, shocker, what would they do with a $40 TSLA, how about $50? How about they announce a dividend, or a split, stranger things have happened.. It will likely not happen until the lower cost 3rd gen model, but it could happen sooner. only a fool would bet against Elon & company long term.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    While Tesla paying a dividend is more than a long way off (I hold out no hope), I also agree that a VW-like short squeeze isn't going to happen. I think there are a number of high-conviction short sellers here that may even try to double down via options should Tesla get to $40 in the next 6 months (which, btw, I personally think is likely). It may take a run above $45 or $50 for the majority of shorts to cover - but some may wait until their brokerage forces them. The two ways to track this are:

    1) Short interest as reported by NASDAQ twice a month.
    2) Price of equivalently priced and dated Puts and Calls. Right now for a given strike price and date, Puts are more expensive than Calls. That's because there are more willing Put buyers than sellers. For instance, today a Jan 2014 Put cost $9.60 while a Jan 2014 Call cost only $5.36. Even at $32 (almost $2 less than the current stock price), the Put costs $1 more than the Call. (Chart here). That's an amazing indication of huge short interest.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ok so I present tesla With fib extensions/retracements since earnings. Key Price levels. It's really been a textbook bull since earnings in terms of pullbacks/advancements.

    Little current twitter chatter thrown in too.

    Hourly Since Earings:
    https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/Screen%20Shot%202012-12-15%20at%202.20.19%20AM.png

    30m Recent:
    https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/Screen%20Shot%202012-12-15%20at%202.20.49%20AM.png

    5m:
    https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/Screen%20Shot%202012-12-15%20at%202.36.25%20AM.png

    Sorry if the volume subgraph is imposing, personal preference.

    Lemme know if there's anything else that anyone thinks is worth tracking down.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    Yup Tesla violates put-call parity. Alot.

    So much so that at a terrible afterhours bid/ask, I can still make an arbitrage trade at market prices.

    https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/Screen%20Shot%202012-12-15%20at%203.11.07%20AM.png

    problem is that put-call parity assumes that the stock can be borrowed for the same interest rate as the risk free rate. and brokers charge alot more then .01% to short tesla shares.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Your comments tell me that you don't actually understand how this strategy works. I wouldn't miss such a move, and in fact I would be even more exposed to it than had I just bought and forgot. That's the whole point.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Few Videos of Elon from the Solar City IPO Day. Mentions Tesla a bit. Can get his fiscal Cliff opinion too.

    So much respect for him, need to find more ways to get Elon capital. Can't wait for Spacex.

    Musk: SolarCity IPO Price Sought Wasn't Aggressive: Video - Bloomberg

    http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000135144

    He steps up in the CNBC one when Rive 'can't hear'.


    Trailing stops work wonders. Limit Trailing Stops are the absolute solution to this problem though.

    Basically a trailing stop is a stop order that adjusts based on the market price. So you could buy the stock here and put a trailing stop in for a 10% decline. Right now, your stop would be about 30.7 If Tesla rose to 40, your stop order would be at 36. Stop orders don't adjust down, only up. If we see some serious spiky action then they can be very useful, but don't normally let you 'time the top'.

    Limit Trailing Stops would solve this problem completely though. The only difference between a limit tailing stop and a trailing stop is a limit trailing stop only gets activated at a certain price. So you set a limit price, once tesla stock reaches it, the trailing stop is activated.

    So this is incredibly useful in capturing the entire 5-10$ move up. So, if you wanted to capture a quick >5 dollar move up, selling out at the top, you can actually place your orders. Buy the stock here, put in a limit trailing stop. Limit price at 40, trailing stop at 2% (will sell 2% from the top). If stock breakouts to 42, your stop price is 41.16. It could collapse back into the 30s, but you'd have sold off at that point. It could peak to 42 then pullback to 41 then move up to 100, but, if we get a move like that, it's generally fairly straight up and straight down. Most effective way of capturing tops i know.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I guess a short squeeze requires two things: that the share price goes up to the point where shorts want/need to cover, and that there are very few who sell at those prices.

    The short squeeze drives the price up only until there are as many sellers as the shorts need to cover.

    It would seem that if there are a lot of day traders who sell at modest price increases, then this will dampen the short squeeze a lot, or even keep it from happening. Plus, the day traders will only make modest gains compared to what they could. Effectively, the day traders will cover for the shorts.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hmm, interesting. So I could set something up where I had limit trailing stops at say, $40, $50, $65, and $80? The theory being if there was a constant rise only the $80 would get hit, but if we had little peaks and valleys on the way up I'd do partial sells at one or more of those intermediate points?

    I'm not sure if I've explained that very well...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agree. This line of reasoning has also caused me to be a little more skeptical about a short squeeze. However I would not rule one out. In the VW scenario about 70% of outstanding shares were directly controlled by porsche which wouldn't sell causing prices to rocket. In the case of TSLA I think its safe to say Elon Musk, Fidelity, Vanguard and Capital Group would be very reluctant to sell as the price goes up in the case of increased demand. They would likely extract their pound of flesh before (if) doing so. These folks account for about 50% of outstanding shares - less than VW but comparable. If a small fraction of retail investors become reluctant to sell it could cause a similar squeeze.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good Action today. Some Resistance at the 38.2% Fib extension but stock closed above it. Target is 34.89, 35.4 short term. Sells are at 36.12 and 37 (78.6 and 100% fib extensions). May see +36 before Friday, only 2 resistances left to go.

    https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/Screen%20Shot%202012-12-17%20at%207.09.40%20PM.png

    Yes. You pick how big a valley has to be for you to sell.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This makes no sense to me. Day traders don't buy and hold. They exit their position at the end of the day. Or at most in a few days.

    So typically day traders have bought the shares they are selling sometime in the past few hours or days.

    I don't see how this helps cover the shorts. Sure, they're selling which helps keep the price down. But they bought very recently which helped drive the price up. Averaged out over say a week, the impact of day traders on pricing should be a wash.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Your response doesn't make sense to me either. It doesn't matter when they bought the stock; a day, a week, or a month ago. The point is that they sell at the time the stock goes up some modest amount, allowing the shorts to buy those stocks at that time (without driving the price up very much, which they would otherwise do, since they are forced to buy, more or less regardless of price).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There is still over 29 million shorts out there (as of 11/30), so in total there wasn't much covering yet. I don't know when they give up, and if they'll give up at about the same time, but I guess a complete profitable quarter would be one of the factors.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The huge difference here is ALL shorts are covered and then some without these entities selling a single share. That was not the case with VW. There is no relationship between TSLA and VW stock short situation. NONE. It's being improperly related because they are both car companies. TSLA may in fact have some short squeeze but it will NEVER match the VW case, has nothing in common with it, should not be used as a comparison. Hundreds of short squeezes occur every day, they are all different in character and severity. My advice is to stay on facts for the TSLA case and stop trying to template against a total unrelated situation.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was just catching up on some bearish articles that have been written lately. There's still plenty of negativity out there on TSLA. At this point it really sounds like they are grasping at straws to me, but the sentiment is as strong as ever (though there are more bulls showing up now).

    This is good, we need someone to take the other side with as much conviction as we have to ensure that the stock keeps rising.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I haven't seen many articles by Peterson lately, though frankly I haven't been looking.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    He's still taking shots at EV's and Tesla, but not a direct assault in the title.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What do you guys think the chances of Tesla being taken over by one of the bigger auto makers after the Gen III vehicle is released? I've been thinking about this and I could see this happening. Elon has stated over and over again that his goal to be the catalyst that makes EVs mainstream and accepted. By the time the Gen II vehicle is out for a couple of years do you think Elon will consider his goal achieved and let somebody else take over the company? Elon doesnt strike me as the type of guy that will stick with something after he's already achieved his goal. I see him selling and moving on to new projects.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    But he also said: "We will not stop until every car on the road is electric."
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ok, I think I see the confusion.

    It's a matter of scale. Day traders can damp the effect of a reasonable number of extra sales. But a not a whole lot of extra sales.

    Now look at the data on short interest. Short interest in TSLA is huge. Almost 30 milion shares. That's 58.9% of the total number of shares available for day-to-day trading (the float). These are ridiculous numbers.

    TSLA trading volume is about 1.5M shares per day. That means that if 10% of the shorts bailed out, the trading volume would be almost 3x normal with 2/3 of the volume being short sellers that are buying. That will move the price up a lot.

    The float on TSLA is about 76 million shares. That's the total number of shares available for day-to-day trading. The rest are locked up. So if the shorts all bailed on the same day and bought shares, 58.9% (according to Yahoo) of the shares that could be sold would have to be sold to meet that demand. That would drive the price through the roof and is why they won't all bail on the same day. Some will close out their positions early, some later and some will hang on to the bitter end.

    I don't know much about the VW short squeeze so I can't compare the two situations. But if Tesla executes well, there will be a short squeeze because the stock will go up as as Tesla demonstrates that:

    - they can sustain manufacturing rates that make the company profitable
    - they can deliver cars at that volume without crippling quality defects
    - there's enough demand to buy as many cars as Tesla plans on making

    Tesla's going to have to demonstrate this over time. Assuming they do it, I don't know that there will be a day or a week that you can point to and say "there was the short squeeze". But the short position in TSLA is so big that unwinding it *will* move the stock price up a fair bit.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I just saw on my browser "TSLA Investor Discussions - Page 404". For a moment there I thought it was indicating an error 404!

    This thread is unbelievably huge.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It seems that TM has built and now delivered north of VIN 3000 so it would seem as if they are either on target or surpassing. Wonder if that is priced into the stock currently?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It is worth noting however that the only VINs in the 2000 range have gone to Canadian cars and these have not been delivered yet and will probably only deliver to the Canadian Sigs this year. Have any US cars been give a VIN in the 2000 range?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    lots have. my guess would be they just reserved enough VINs to get through the canadian signatures and went back to the GP cars after that.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm not sure which "confusion" you believe to be addressing, as I agree with very much of what you are saying, in the first place. When I say "day trader", I include "week trader" and "month trader", anyone who is trying to take advantage of fluctuations around a some (perhaps rising) price level, as opposed to a long term investor who is waiting for either a longer time, or a larger price move to some higher level. The long term investor usually does not expect to buy again, after selling.

    With TSLA, the opinions about whether a short squeeze (of some magnitude which would be worth the name) can occur, seem to be split. And if that is on the edge, then a number of day traders can make the difference.

    I'm not a stock market expert in even a "hobby" way, but if I am looking for a criteria where our views differ, it is probably that I don't see "trading volume" as a constant number. The short squeeze is likely to happen if there will be a development that causes the number of sellers to drastically reduce, while on the buyer side, the shorts will not only want to cover because of that development, but additionally the price increase will be large enough to *force* them to cover, since they cannot afford to take a larger risk.

    In the case of VW (which apparently is an extreme example), the situation occurred because Porsche, by itself, was enough in control of the seller side to keep the shorts from "escaping" through some "leak".
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I went and checked the delivery data spreadsheet to find that you are correct. Didn't notice them being reported. I guess I should have done my research before posting.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The real issue is whether the short interest in the stock is large enough that the extra buying that happens when short sellers unwind can be absorbed by "normal" trading. If the percentage of short-driven buying gets too large, that results in a noticeable increase in demand relative to available supply which causes supply/demand pressure which increases the price.

    This is where stats like the short % of float matters. The larger the number, the harder it is for all the short sellers to unwind their positions without creating supply/demand pressures that will increase the price. You have to unwind the position slowly and gradually otherwise the unwind will drive the price up. Easy to do if it's coordinated and you have the time. Hard to do otherwise.

    The short interest relative to the float is really really high: higher than the 10-15 most highly shorted stocks in the S&P 500. More than 1/2 of the shares that have been sold on the open market are "borrowed" shares: shares sold by short-sellers who didn't own the stock they sold.

    Similarly the daily trading volume is interesting because it gives you an idea of how much stock changes hands on a normal day. Days with much higher than normal trading volumes tend to result in a non-trivial change in price -- the higher volume is usually due to a lot of people interested in getting in or bailing out of the stock. Which results in a supply/demand pressures which moves the stock price.

    If you've got a few minutes, go to Yahoo Finance and get quotes on some of your favorite companies that you think are in real trouble. They click on key statistics and look at the float % and average daily (trading) volume. Unless your losers are a lot worse than my losers :), TSLA's short situation is worse than those.

    Just my opinion but if Tesla continues to execute, the shorts are going to have to bail and they'll move the stock price some non-trivial amount in the process.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes. It will get to 4004.

    Bought 50 of the Jan 38 Calls today for .40 each. Stock's been holding up well since the last pullback and is again testing its uptrend. Going to sell 37 Calls into Strength for >1.00.

    https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/Screen%20Shot%202012-12-19%20at%209.08.37%20PM.png

    I'm a over exposed now but I think that there is enough strength for one more run-up pre-earnings. Then it's all on Elon.

    Sold out my solar city at 11.50 too.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, yes, however this also applies when shorts are simply covering in a normal way.

    My understanding of a "short squeeze" is that this expression refers to what happens when the first, normal, shorts covering causes the price to go up sufficiently to force other shorts to cover as well. This causes the price to go even higher, which forces even more shorts to cover. This spiral leads to a situation where lots of shorts have to cover at the same time.

    So what you describe is a pre-condition, but then additionally it is necessary that modest price increases do not cause immediate profit taking by lots of day traders. The number of those, who will sell when the price increases only modestly, has to be small, as only then will the price increase sufficiently to force the other shorts to cover as well.

    I'd agree that the high percentage of short interest is what makes TSLA a candidate for a short squeeze, in the first place. My understanding is that TSLA is one of the stocks with the highest short interest. But then, for the squeeze to actually happen, there must be an absence of people selling at modest increases already.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Without the fiscal cliff drag (plus jan option expire before earnings call) I'd agree. More money, but march might be worth the price to clear both of those events. Plus market downdraft pressure over next days might provide a lower cost cost for these. That's my watch plan currently
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Do you men in the 2000-2999 range? Or the 2000-2099 range?

    I'm 2301 and will be picking up at the factory on Sunday.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    three negative press releases. question coordinated attack? sounds paranoid but amazing that they all decided today was the day to release this information without new news. i hope tesla released production number and cars produced per week rate at the new year. it will end speculation that helps no one. it will not end negative bashing, too much at stake for that
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was just telling my Dad yesterday to brace for bad press today since we hit a new short-term high. These bears are predictably ruthless.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just read through the articles by JP and Marketwatch. It's really a shame how people get swayed by these articles. These guys seem hellbent on hating the company. I would've commented but there's no point.

    1. First thing that irks me is, they proceed to tell people not to invest but don't hold any positions. Well... Put your money where your mouth is. One can argue that it would present conflict of interest, but I see it as proof of conviction.

    2. Although some of the financials JP pulls are true, they are extremely outdated or are based on ESTIMATES from research reports. The inaccuracies speak for themselves.

    3. A lot of commentators continue to hammer at the point that EV's proposition as clean energy is a smokescreen. It really isn't. Once netted out, it's still cheaper and releases less emissions than your standard ICE.

    4. Many continue to point out that Tesla is the next Fisker or Solyndra. It is not. It has the product and it has the customer. From what I read on threads, the customer service is also there. This is basically where apple was when Steve jobs returned.

    5. They also say that they failed to deliver cars to customers. Last I checked we are on VIN3000? The S curve got delayed by two weeks.

    6. Historically, has the company defied all the naysayers? Yes. I think George B put it best: everything Tesla is doing was at one point impossible. That's why it's so hard.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'd like to hear from our resident accountants.

    I know the numbers that Peterson ended up with don't make sense, but I'm sure I'm not thinking about everything I need to think about to get to the right numbers. Mostly I'm interested in disproving his comment (yet again) that they are going to have to qualify their quarterly report with the "going concern" statement.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's possible. There's a pretty nasty looking head and shoulders pattern forming on both Tesla's short term and longer term charts. Generally a really bad sign, but its happened to Tesla before without disaster.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This might sound crass, but while I actually agree with John on a number of issues related to Tesla (particularly that they were very close to a liquidity problem---previous to the follow-on), at this point I think it is safe to say that he either has a direct or indirect short position, or that he has just latched on and won't let go. This is not to say that TSLA is not hugely overvalued, it's hard to say if they will come close to their current market cap in a year or five years (the important thing is that they prove profits are possible), just that at least in the foreseeable future that things look quite good. I was planning to short Tesla before they did the cap raise, but now that they have cash, demand is strong and growing, and production is moving as planned, the only real concern left on the table that could arise is a debacle of some kind (spontaneously combusting cars etc.). Using the reservation cash as capital is not a great business or accounting practice, but in this situation I think it was probably appropriate and not quite as risky as John argues. Moreover, in terms of the accounting, John seemed to be suggesting that because the reservations are already on the books that revenues will be lower. To clarify, revenues will reflect the full sales prices of the cars including the deposits. So in effect, the deposits will transfer from assets to revenues as the cars are delivered (debit assets credit revenues). Now somebody buy me a drink, all bean counting and no fun makes me a dull boy.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    there is a total disconnect here. running out of cash etc... this company is sure not acting like it. if short of cash and large backlog here in usa, why open up european facility in hopes of selling more there, does that make sense to anyone? have to hire staff etc. they didnt need facility to sell roadsters there, they could have just shipped there while building up cash. i believe situation as stated from outsider without inside information makes no sense. he has understated production number (including the 3rd qtr production number) in the 4th qtr cars production and still understated it. i do not believe the execs are suicidal. they are now bringing in receipts and taking advantage of the situation. have considered why they dont silence people by announcing production number but then they will just pick up and run with other misrepresentations. i believe the numbers will be there, just hope we dont have to wait till feb to hear the production rate.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Is it reasonable to believe that JP is correct in that they have already burned through the last offering of $200+ million and will need another in 2013? Where is his error? Can someone make sense of this? Can we say with confidence that, with any sort of major event or issue withstanding, they wont need to raise more capital?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    While Tesla did decide to make another capital raise, they did so under much better conditions, in the context of much better numbers, and later, than JP predicted some time ago as inevitable.

    In so far as I remember from NigelM's posts, JP's comments about reservation payments don't correctly reflect that they are accounted for as "liabilities", before delivery. Perhaps you understand better than me what this actually means. ;)

    The reservation payments are handled according or each state's laws/regulations (which means, I think, differently in some states). His talk about himself having to go to jail seems smear level.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    He has no more information than you do. Don't believe everything people speculate about. His credential and bias well known. He has disputed the value of lithium batteries (self serving then given his affiliation at the time). If its in his interest now why would you believe he won't distort to his advantage
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm especially confused by how he can say they will have an operating loss of 85 million for Q4, but they will have "burned through" over 200 million. You will notice in the article he just states that the 2.9 million number comes from the JP Morgen report, but this is the same report that gave a price target of $37, so something (as usual with Peterson) is fishy.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    One thing I find interesting reading the extreme bear articles is the inability to recognize the concept of rate of change, or how today's state at Tesla is precisely what every startup transitioning into a going concern goes through. It's as if the analysis amounts to "the state on <date> is <x>; extended for a very short time, and assuming nothing changes, Tesla is out of business any second now". Of course, Tesla is changing at an astounding rate right now.

    When you look at the rate of manufacturing, that began accelerating early this quarter in a major way, and to a level that will produce profitability when extended into the future (though of course, manufacturing level was at a very unprofitable level until recently, so there's still risk around maintaining the rate).

    Similar observation about deliveries (and revenue recognition!). It's been accelerating right along with the manufacturing (maybe a week or 3 lag). Can Tesla successfully deliver 20k+ cars a year, to go along with the manufacturing rate? Clearly they will need to prove they can, but really - if that's the only problem (they make 'em, but can't deliver?) - they'll figure that out.

    Reservation rate - same kind of story, though here, the reservation rate in the US has been outstanding all on its own for more than a month. I use the reservation rate as a leading indicator, and a month or more at this 60's / 70's daily rate for the US is outstanding. That suggests to me that manufacturing 20k/year won't do it, and its not hard to see a need for more like 30-40k/year in the next 1-2 quarters (effectively immediately) as Europe gets seriously opened. It will also be an early indicator that a particular Tesla model is achieving saturation or otherwise losing its appeal.


    The business today is effectively unrecognizable from the business of 3 or 6 months ago. Three or 6 months ago, Tesla was an R&D concern. Today, Tesla is a manufacturer. Will they be profitable in Q4? Of course not, and nobody in or out of the company has suggested that they will.

    Will they have ~50M of net revenue to report in Q4 (taking the past, and extending it into the future as if nothing has changed)? So clearly NO, it's silly. Admittedly a high estimate, but 2,000 cars at $75,000 per car is $150,000,000 of revenue. That's a tripling in QoQ revenue. That won't happen again in Q1, but zowie - triple QoQ revenue is different at least!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's well known that SpaceX is Mr. Musk's 'baby'. That's the one he'll go to his grave looking after. It's also well known that he's not in it for the money. At some point he will no longer 'run' Tesla; definitely not before Gen III. How long after Gen III probably depends on where SpaceX is at with their mission to Mars, as well how well Gen III is received by the market and what else is on the drawing board for Tesla at that time. I think it's a safe guess that we'll have Mr. Musk at the helm for at least 5 more years.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    It's (probably) due to lower reservation payments per car on non signature orders. And the delivered most of the signatures this quarter.

    This has made news before.

    "Bank of America/Merrill Lynch forecast 2012 Model S deliveries of 5,000 units. Reservation deposits for the first 2,000 Model S Signature editions were $40,000 each for a total of $80 million. Reservation deposits for the next 3,000 standard Model S versions were $5,000 each for a total of $15 million more. Overall, the total Merrill Lynch error was $95 million. Morgan Stanley was more conservative at 2,230 Model S deliveries. So its error was $81 million."
    Why Analysts Are Wrong About Tesla: Pro

    Not a sign of weakness.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Peterson makes some dubious calculations using made up numbers. The 2000 signatures in the cnbc article, or 1500 signatures in his most recent article. Foolishly, someone like me will point out his false figures and shoddy math, to have him respond "it doesn't matter Tesla is still burning cash!" Rinse and repeat. He has proclaimed Tesla wouldn't exist after September, then he pushed it back to the end of the year. He will always be a naysayer just because of his previous interest in lead-acid batteries.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    maybe he uses the Mayan calendar ;-)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Please correct me if I`m wrong, but there`s about 1200 US and Canadian sigs? And they probably pay somewhere between 90-110.000 for their cars?

    I assume all of them will have their cars in 2012. So that`s about 120 million in revenue?
    And then there`s about 1800 ordinary cars delivered in 2012, at an average of about 85,000?
    That`s another 153 million in revenues. And except from 250 delivered in Q3, all the revenue comes from Q4?

    So let`s say Tesla will make about 270 million in revenue from the Model S in Q4, maybe 10-20 from Rav4, Merc B, Roadsters and other development? So Tesla will probably have somewhere between 250-300 million in revenues in Q4, but definitively still no profits until Q1 2013. Either way, maybe John Petersen should take into account that revenues are almost 8 times higher in Q4 2012 than Q4 2011. Love playing these numbers games :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Today shinal claims investing in tesla is the same as buying fraudulent mortgages. I agree with the revenue issue but he also left out the model x reservations. Over 2000 a month ago and over 200 signatures. That would be additional 18 million revenue. We all need to book mark his articles and when he posts in future point out his past record
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And please, comparing TSLA to Groupon! Both in the red yes. But while Groupon had an idea and a website (and some servers), Tesla has a fully tooled factory (hughe) AND is the world leader in EV tech - ideas and tech that's patented and owned (Groupon's concept has been extensively copied) AND Tesla has customers lined up!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ok, I see what you're saying. You're going by the really strict definition of a short squeeze. Mine is looser. Both are in common use.

    I agree that we are not likely to see an extreme short squeeze where a large % of the existing short-sellers are forced to bail out right away. I think for that to happen, the stock would have to jump a lot (probably >30% or even >50% in a few days).

    But I do think that as the stock price continues to climb, we'll see people closing out their short positions. The short interest is so high that I think that will move the price up some (5-15%?) especially since I suspect most of the short-sellers are hedge funds and other institutions that take larger positions than individual investors. It will also reduce the supply of stock available in the open market by a non-trivial amount as well. Not sure what that'll do (probably increase volatility but who knows?).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It`s just like John Petersens consistent bashing of Teslas reservation numbers. He repetedly states that it took Tesla three years to build a reservation base of 13.000 people, and continues by stating that the queue will be emptied after a couple of quarters.
    He ignores the fact that reservations have been steadily increasing from about 30 a day in june, to 60-70 now (peaking at about 86 in beginning of december, but at the moment it seems as if people are getting ready to celebrate christmas instead of ordering a Model S :)

    Furthermore he ignores that a continous reservation flow well above manufacturing pace actually results in the queue increasing, not decreasing. Why Tesla would run out of orders in 6 months is beyond me, but seems logical to John Petersen.....
    It`s a bit irritating that he is so smart, while at the same time acts so dumb just to bash Tesla.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    premarket is down $1, should be an interesting day
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    On 100 vol...-_-
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    ha! how is that possible?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What are you looking at? Google finance? Google seemed messed up this morning - at 9:37 it was still showing market closed for me. My brokerage account shows correct volume though.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looks down about .25 at 6:51 against a falling general market.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Our government is going to totally mess up our stock market. Due to the potential of tax increase on capital gains, investors are better off selling holdings this year, taking gains at the lower rate, and then buying them back, extablishing a new cost basis for thier stocks. Stocks that would normally be strong will be sold to save a few dollars in taxes. This is in addition to the normal year end tax loss selling.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, now it's back up to $34.05 (Nasdaq's site).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Actually watch out with that strategy I cannot remember the exact period of time but you have to wait 30 or 60 days to buy back to have it count for taxes. Of course during that time you will miss the 4th qtr report
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is what they agreed upon a year ago. Not very well thought out? No surprise, is there? The next deal they make will also be poorly thought out.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I believe it is different for long term and short term on the buy back. Not sure on the specifics though.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I created a spreadsheet to see what the difference is. It seems to depend on the situation if that maneuver actually saves you money. I understand the idea of thinking you will save tax for the gains which have occurred up to the tax increase. But actually, when buying back, you will have less money to invest (after paying the taxes), and then for the gains in the second time period, you still have to pay taxes. So even if you always pay less taxes, you might sometimes also have less money at the end.

    It is easy to create a small spreadsheet and run the numbers for various scenarios, easier than to explain in detail.

    What I found so far (I might have made a mistake, I just spent 15 min on it) is that if the tax% is the same or larger in the second time period, then you save money if the share price increase is relatively small, but you lose money if the share price increase is relatively large. Would be good if someone could double-check this calculation, or already knows the answer.

    EDIT: Example: Let's say you bought shares at $25, and you sell and re-buy at $34 while the tax is 15%. The tax increases to 20% when you sell the second time. According to my current quick version 0.1 spreadsheet, if you finally sell at $56, this maneuver will have improved your profits by a small amount. But if you finally sell at $57 (or above), you will actually lose money, and it is better to just keep the shares for the whole time.
    �
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