teslamotorclub: TSLA Investor Discussions part 36

ppl said: ?

Actually watch out with that strategy I cannot remember the exact period of time but you have to wait 30 or 60 days to buy back to have it count for taxes. Of course during that time you will miss the 4th qtr report
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The wash rule only applies to sales at a loss, and the waiting time is 31 days. If you are selling at a profit, there is no waiting period.
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Lloyd said: ?

Our government is going to totally mess up our stock market.
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They already have.
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New number: As of 12/14/2012, short interest was still 29,091,311, not very far from its peak.

In hindsight, this is always good to know, as it means the share price remained at its current level *in spite of* that many shorts.
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Lloyd said: ?

Our government is going to totally mess up our stock market. Due to the potential of tax increase on capital gains, investors are better off selling holdings this year, taking gains at the lower rate, and then buying them back, extablishing a new cost basis for thier stocks. Stocks that would normally be strong will be sold to save a few dollars in taxes. This is in addition to the normal year end tax loss selling.
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That was essentially the basis for my cashing out of TSLA @$35. Heck, I did a major rebalance of everything I own.

Except for the Republicans failing to pass their middle class tax cut (and thus confirming that their conference is even more FUBAR than I feared) everything seems to be playing out as expected. We are now flirting with 90% probabilities that we are going over the cliff with no mitigation. But its also clear that whatever (if any) small fixes are attempted, whether its the middle class tax cut, a modification of the sequester, or both, it is now almost inevitable that we are facing a debt ceiling fight in February or March just like the one we saw in July 2011.

Only this time I *think* I believe Obama when he says he wont negotiate. I don't know what will happen with those discussions, or whether someone will back away from the brink, but even talking about it tanked the economy last time around, and this time it will happen while the economy is experiencing a severe fiscal drag. If we breach the debt ceiling we will be deep in La La Land and facing a self imposed crisis that has the potential to make 2008 look like a minor blip.

It is beyond bizarre to me that the only credible path forward that I see, other than a balanced agreement like the ones that have already failed to come together, or total capitulation by one side or the other, is to mint trillion dollar platinum coins and purchase debt back from the Fed to allow the government to issue new debt without breaching the debt ceiling.

That is just silly. But I can easily see that happening in March if a deal doesn't come together which causes the Republicans to withdraw their debt ceiling threat. And as of right now, the demands that they are making have united the Dems in opposition even, apparently, in the face of a potential default.
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Norbert said: ?

I created a spreadsheet to see what the difference is. It seems to depend on the situation if that maneuver actually saves you money. I understand the idea of thinking you will save tax for the gains which have occurred up to the tax increase. But actually, when buying back, you will have less money to invest (after paying the taxes), and then for the gains in the second time period, you still have to pay taxes. So even if you always pay less taxes, you might sometimes also have less money at the end.

It is easy to create a small spreadsheet and run the numbers for various scenarios, easier than to explain in detail.

What I found so far (I might have made a mistake, I just spent 15 min on it) is that if the tax% is the same or larger in the second time period, then you save money if the share price increase is relatively small, but you lose money if the share price increase is relatively large. Would be good if someone could double-check this calculation, or already knows the answer.

EDIT: Example: Let's say you bought shares at $25, and you sell and re-buy at $34 while the tax is 15%. The tax increases to 20% when you sell the second time. According to my current quick version 0.1 spreadsheet, if you finally sell at $56, this maneuver will have improved your profits by a small amount. But if you finally sell at $57 (or above), you will actually lose money, and it is better to just keep the shares for the whole time.
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In my case I bought at ~$28, sold at $35 and have not repurchased because I am making a bet that the market potentially faces a period of tremendous turmoil in the context of congressional dysfunction and a fiscally induced recession and potential for a politically induced default on U.S. obligations.

Under current law, capital gains in 2013 will be 20% + a 3.8% surtax for a total rate of 23.8%.

I'm not expecting my strategy to be a money maker for me unless these risks manifest themselves, but I think that I am ahead at current prices even if capital gains stay at 15% ie. (35-28)*0.15=1.05tax which should mean I can repurchase at ~$34 and be fine.

TSLA seems to have established a nice floor for itself in that range but I am skeptical that it will rise much in the face of politically driven uncertainty that is starting to put downward pressure on the market as a whole. I'm hopeful that this limits my potential losses when I buy back in while leaving me in a position to bargain hunt if there is a sharp move downwards.

Frankly, Tesla is an awesome company and IMHO folks who are actively shorting it are foolish. It would not surprise me in the least if it rises to $40 next week. But the situation in Washington has me seriously concerned to the point that I am ignoring the fundamentals of the company and instead am looking hard at what the latest word is from the Washington Post.
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We will go over cliff. Too many see benefit, at least for some goals in doing so. Only way for republicans to get spending cuts and to broaden tax base. I personally don't mind paying more if everyone else does too. Dems see immediate political benefit of assessing blame, and have republicans vote against tax cut for those making less than 250k. They also get defense cuts and again watch the other side have to approve or go on record voting against social programs.

Funny that this was all created by congress that now can't deal with it. Truth is that all will get hurt. We should get innovative and do a value added tax. Consumption based, hidden to consumer, broadens base. Claims that it is regressive not true. Those with less buy less and therefore pay less. Don't like paying tax dont consume as much
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Half of me says to exit the market because of the cliff. The other half says stay because of TSLA. Oh boy.
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The Bear Case Against Tesla

Thought it would be a good exercise to try to argue the Bear case against TSLA:

1) Model S reservations are growing nicely, but there's no telling when pent-up demand will be satisfied. The Leaf, for instance, also had reservations and pent-up demand, but that pretty quickly dissipated. With Model S, that's obviously going to take a longer time, but you can't prove that there's a sustainable 25K/year demand for Model S over multiple years.

2) Model X reservations suck. Something like 2K at this point in time I think. Yeah, we don't have real specs nor pricing and they're not pushing it in the stores, but considering the additional base model complexity (eg, falcon doors), added items (3rd row seat), increased weight, increased use of materials (it's a lot taller), it's hard to see the base model not costing $10K-$15K more than Model S's new pricing. That means it starts at $70K. So, it's a high-end premium SUV, which means it doesn't compete with X3 or Q5, etc. It ain't gonna capture any mini-Van sales unless people are willing to spend more. A lot more.

3) Gen-3 is a tall order. The highest price it can come in at is $47,400 which the Fed rebate brings to $39,900. This isn't a mainstream car. Even so, it's $20K cheaper than the base Model S, yet I don't see how they get there. It needs a 150 mile range minimum, and needs to compete performance-wise and luxury-wise with BMW 3-series and Audi A4, etc. Luxury-wise, Model S is about there (little better in some things, little worse in others), but they're not going save that much money just shrinking things down size-wise. For 150 mile range, they'll need a 45-50kWh battery, which at today's prices is something like $22K. Let's say battery technology improves 25% in 3 years, that means the battery will save about $5500, which means they need another $14,500 in car itself savings. Motor can be smaller, but getting that kind of savings from the mundane car aspects is impossible. Even a 50% battery price per kWh savings saves $11K, which means there's still $9K in savings due to size and quality needed. Pretty steep. Gross margins are going to suffer, and the car is going to need a cheaper to build design, while at the same time compete with the best in the world in terms of appointments/comfort, etc.

4) If battery technology does vastly improve to make Gen-3 a reality, then BMW and Audi and Lexus could arguably more easily throw it into their best in class cars than Tesla can build a best in class car to surround its drivetrain. The Model S's borderline OK interior shows us just how hard it is to compete with the established car companies in those areas.

5) Model X production line will probably require an additional capital raise. Gen-3 will definitely require a large capital raise. Those are going to impact the stock price. Other companies can do what Ford does and build different powertrain versions of the same car on the same assembly line, thus reducing their start-up investment costs, and keep risk down. Tesla doesn't have that cost nor risk reduction. And, they still have to pay off their existing loans, which is money they can't invest in new assembly lines.

6) At today's price (around $34), Tesla needs a lot of profit to get to a reasonable P/E ratio - more profit than they can get from Model S alone. Despite super high short interest, the stock price has already priced in Model S success and Model X successful kickoff at least.Compare Tesla's numbers with a full 20K/year Model S delivery in 2013 to any other successful car company and you'll see that Model S success is already priced in. There's a limit as to how much future potential the stock market will support and Tesla is already testing it.

7) If the Fed tax rebate goes away, the high end Model S/X sales won't be much impacted, but Gen-3 sales would likely be heavily impacted. That's an uncontrollable future risk for Tesla.

Again, I'm bullish on Tesla, but I'm trying to build rational bear arguments. What have I missed? Please do not give me grid constraints, coal-power, or other such Petersen-esque items, I want to keep this reasonable as a check against overlooking the real risks and concerns.
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smorgasbord said: ?

Thought it would be a good exercise to try to argue the Bear case against TSLA:

1) Model S reservations are growing nicely, but there's no telling when pent-up demand will be satisfied. The Leaf, for instance, also had reservations and pent-up demand, but that pretty quickly dissipated. With Model S, that's obviously going to take a longer time, but you can't prove that there's a sustainable 25K/year demand for Model S over multiple years.

2) Model X reservations suck. Something like 2K at this point in time I think. Yeah, we don't have real specs nor pricing and they're not pushing it in the stores, but considering the additional base model complexity (eg, falcon doors), added items (3rd row seat), increased weight, increased use of materials (it's a lot taller), it's hard to see the base model not costing $10K-$15K more than Model S's new pricing. That means it starts at $70K. So, it's a high-end premium SUV, which means it doesn't compete with X3 or Q5, etc. It ain't gonna capture any mini-Van sales unless people are willing to spend more. A lot more.

3) Gen-3 is a tall order. The highest price it can come in at is $47,400 which the Fed rebate brings to $39,900. This isn't a mainstream car. Even so, it's $20K cheaper than the base Model S, yet I don't see how they get there. It needs a 150 mile range minimum, and needs to compete performance-wise and luxury-wise with BMW 3-series and Audi A4, etc. Luxury-wise, Model S is about there (little better in some things, little worse in others), but they're not going save that much money just shrinking things down size-wise. For 150 mile range, they'll need a 45-50kWh battery, which at today's prices is something like $22K. Let's say battery technology improves 25% in 3 years, that means the battery will save about $5500, which means they need another $14,500 in car itself savings. Motor can be smaller, but getting that kind of savings from the mundane car aspects is impossible. Even a 50% battery price per kWh savings saves $11K, which means there's still $9K in savings due to size and quality needed. Pretty steep. Gross margins are going to suffer, and the car is going to need a cheaper to build design, while at the same time compete with the best in the world in terms of appointments/comfort, etc.

4) If battery technology does vastly improve to make Gen-3 a reality, then BMW and Audi and Lexus could arguably more easily throw it into their best in class cars than Tesla can build a best in class car to surround its drivetrain. The Model S's borderline OK interior shows us just how hard it is to compete with the established car companies in those areas.

5) Model X production line will probably require an additional capital raise. Gen-3 will definitely require a large capital raise. Those are going to impact the stock price. Other companies can do what Ford does and build different powertrain versions of the same car on the same assembly line, thus reducing their start-up investment costs, and keep risk down. Tesla doesn't have that cost nor risk reduction. And, they still have to pay off their existing loans, which is money they can't invest in new assembly lines.

6) At today's price (around $34), Tesla needs a lot of profit to get to a reasonable P/E ratio - more profit than they can get from Model S alone. Despite super high short interest, the stock price has already priced in Model S success and Model X successful kickoff at least.Compare Tesla's numbers with a full 20K/year Model S delivery in 2013 to any other successful car company and you'll see that Model S success is already priced in. There's a limit as to how much future potential the stock market will support and Tesla is already testing it.

7) If the Fed tax rebate goes away, the high end Model S/X sales won't be much impacted, but Gen-3 sales would likely be heavily impacted. That's an uncontrollable future risk for Tesla.

Again, I'm bullish on Tesla, but I'm trying to build rational bear arguments. What have I missed? Please do not give me grid constraints, coal-power, or other such Petersen-esque items, I want to keep this reasonable as a check against overlooking the real risks and concerns.
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The other bearish issue, in my mind, at least....

Trouble transitioning over to the European / World stage due to charging / battery issues (already having some US reports of excessive battery charge loss in the cold - would make it difficult if one lived in Norway, where we are seeing the greatest number of European reservations).
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smorgasbord said: ?

Thought it would be a good exercise to try to argue the Bear case against TSLA:
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Would any of the bug/defect or winter driving issues being noted have any impact on the stock or is that all sort of irrelevant relative to cars delivered?
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CapitalistOppressor said: ?

In my case I bought at ~$28, sold at $35 and have not repurchased because I am making a bet that the market potentially faces a period of tremendous turmoil in the context of congressional dysfunction and a fiscally induced recession and potential for a politically induced default on U.S. obligations.

Under current law, capital gains in 2013 will be 20% + a 3.8% surtax for a total rate of 23.8%.
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Missed the surtax. With your buy price, and a total rate 23.8%, the threshold moves up to about $71 (when re-buying at the same price). I do expect to sell above $70 eventually (perhaps in a few years), so I am better off keeping the shares until then.

CapitalistOppressor said: ?

I'm not expecting my strategy to be a money maker for me unless these risks manifest themselves, but I think that I am ahead at current prices even if capital gains stay at 15% ie. (35-28)*0.15=1.05tax which should mean I can repurchase at ~$34 and be fine.
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Yes, selling at $35 and re-buying at $34 seems fine even if capital gains stay at 15%. But the difference in share price between $35 and $34 has a large effect, compared to any potential tax-related savings from this sell/re-buy maneuver even when taxes go up to 23.8%. For example, if you have to buy back at $2 higher (at $37), you already lose all the tax-related savings regardless of the final selling price (unless it is somewhere below $30).

When re-buying at the same price, in your case, the threshold would be around $73.

In other words, if one expects to eventually sell (after a longer time of owning the shares, perhaps a few years) at around $70-75, or higher, then one should do this sell/re-buy maneuver only if one expects to be able to buy back at a lower price. (Depending on your original purchase price, though.)

CapitalistOppressor said: ?

TSLA seems to have established a nice floor for itself in that range but I am skeptical that it will rise much in the face of politically driven uncertainty that is starting to put downward pressure on the market as a whole. I'm hopeful that this limits my potential losses when I buy back in while leaving me in a position to bargain hunt if there is a sharp move downwards.

Frankly, Tesla is an awesome company and IMHO folks who are actively shorting it are foolish. It would not surprise me in the least if it rises to $40 next week. But the situation in Washington has me seriously concerned to the point that I am ignoring the fundamentals of the company and instead am looking hard at what the latest word is from the Washington Post.
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This is also the time when news from Tesla (about becoming profitable, reaching a high production rate, and continued reservations) may drive the price up. So I guess any "downward pressure on the market" will have to come at the right time, and you'd have to be sure not to miss that time.

- - - Updated - - -

ckessel said: ?

Would any of the bug/defect or winter driving issues being noted have any impact on the stock or is that all sort of irrelevant relative to cars delivered?
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Potentially, but in general, the Model S is doing far better than the naysayers predicted.
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Responses to "The bear case ..."

smorgasbord said: ?

Thought it would be a good exercise to try to argue the Bear case against TSLA:
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In general, I think, much of these arguments are existing skepticism, and they are already baked into the share price. But it might be an equally good exercise to respond to each.

smorgasbord said: ?

1) Model S reservations are growing nicely, but there's no telling when pent-up demand will be satisfied. The Leaf, for instance, also had reservations and pent-up demand, but that pretty quickly dissipated. With Model S, that's obviously going to take a longer time, but you can't prove that there's a sustainable 25K/year demand for Model S over multiple years.
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The bears predicted all kinds of problems and impossibilities, which Tesla has meanwhile resolved (assuming production rate will be good soon, or already is).
Continued demand is the last remaining major "question". Model S will improve, sinking battery prices will give Tesla the option to reduce the price, and variations of the platform will address additional market segments, and the SuperCharger network will be extended extensively within the next two years. But even without those, demand currently appears to continue in a healthy manner.

smorgasbord said: ?

2) Model X reservations suck. Something like 2K at this point in time I think. Yeah, we don't have real specs nor pricing and they're not pushing it in the stores, but considering the additional base model complexity (eg, falcon doors), added items (3rd row seat), increased weight, increased use of materials (it's a lot taller), it's hard to see the base model not costing $10K-$15K more than Model S's new pricing. That means it starts at $70K. So, it's a high-end premium SUV, which means it doesn't compete with X3 or Q5, etc. It ain't gonna capture any mini-Van sales unless people are willing to spend more. A lot more.
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I think Model X reservations are mostly impacted by it being far away, while the Model S is starting to be available (and having a large cargo room as well). The falcon doors are too new for people to trust them from the distance. If implemented solidly, they will turn into something attracting buyers who would otherwise not consider an EV. Not everyone will like them, but their functionality is (currently) not available on any other car, electric or not. And a top acceleration of 4.4 sec with electrically controlled AWD will of course be another selling point.

smorgasbord said: ?

3) Gen-3 is a tall order. The highest price it can come in at is $47,400 which the Fed rebate brings to $39,900. This isn't a mainstream car. Even so, it's $20K cheaper than the base Model S, yet I don't see how they get there. It needs a 150 mile range minimum, and needs to compete performance-wise and luxury-wise with BMW 3-series and Audi A4, etc. Luxury-wise, Model S is about there (little better in some things, little worse in others), but they're not going save that much money just shrinking things down size-wise. For 150 mile range, they'll need a 45-50kWh battery, which at today's prices is something like $22K. Let's say battery technology improves 25% in 3 years, that means the battery will save about $5500, which means they need another $14,500 in car itself savings. Motor can be smaller, but getting that kind of savings from the mundane car aspects is impossible. Even a 50% battery price per kWh savings saves $11K, which means there's still $9K in savings due to size and quality needed. Pretty steep. Gross margins are going to suffer, and the car is going to need a cheaper to build design, while at the same time compete with the best in the world in terms of appointments/comfort, etc.
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Compared to the Model S, aside from the smaller size and for example lower cost interior materials, significant savings will of course come from mass-production and lower high-volume prices from suppliers. It appears battery technology in the next 3 years may have a larger than average decline in costs. Also, with the Model S, Tesla will have gained relevant experience in reducing cost and efficiency in production. A major advantage should be that Tesla can easily offer great performance without much higher cost.

smorgasbord said: ?

4) If battery technology does vastly improve to make Gen-3 a reality, then BMW and Audi and Lexus could arguably more easily throw it into their best in class cars than Tesla can build a best in class car to surround its drivetrain. The Model S's borderline OK interior shows us just how hard it is to compete with the established car companies in those areas.
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The Gen III doesn't seem to need a better interior than Tesla already knows how to make, and in any case that is an expertise which should be available on the market.

However, building a cost-efficient first-class electric drive train, hardware and software, is non-trivial, involves lots of patents, and is an expertise that can't be bought easily on the market. Other companies have not shown that it would be easy to do something similar, on the contrary. Leaf and Volt each required many years of development, without really achieving the same 'wow' result for the electric drivetrain.

smorgasbord said: ?

5) Model X production line will probably require an additional capital raise. Gen-3 will definitely require a large capital raise. Those are going to impact the stock price. Other companies can do what Ford does and build different powertrain versions of the same car on the same assembly line, thus reducing their start-up investment costs, and keep risk down. Tesla doesn't have that cost nor risk reduction. And, they still have to pay off their existing loans, which is money they can't invest in new assembly lines.
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I don't think Model X will necessarily require an additional capital raise, and haven't seen anyone (who would be knowledgable enough) saying so. Once Tesla is profitable, the need for the recent capital raise as a "cushion" will go away, and since the Model X will be produced mostly on the same production line, the necessary investment won't be that high.

smorgasbord said: ?

6) At today's price (around $34), Tesla needs a lot of profit to get to a reasonable P/E ratio - more profit than they can get from Model S alone. Despite super high short interest, the stock price has already priced in Model S success and Model X successful kickoff at least.Compare Tesla's numbers with a full 20K/year Model S delivery in 2013 to any other successful car company and you'll see that Model S success is already priced in. There's a limit as to how much future potential the stock market will support and Tesla is already testing it.
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The skepticism of the bearish position is also already priced in, the existing short interest can't be put aside. So the argument goes both ways. In so far as Tesla will address many concerns about production and profitability in the next months, many risks which are in fact still baked into the share price, will fall away within a few months.

smorgasbord said: ?

7) If the Fed tax rebate goes away, the high end Model S/X sales won't be much impacted, but Gen-3 sales would likely be heavily impacted. That's an uncontrollable future risk for Tesla.
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I don't see that happening. Tesla is in the midst of proving that electric cars are *the* technology worth supporting, that a valid business model for them exists, and that they contribute to a working economy. This will increase a very positive context for government support. Also, for example, one city recently decided to have most of their fleet be electric.
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I have been watching the reservation numbers closely. The Model S been running at about 70 a day 25,550 a year. Model X been running about 10 a day 3,650 a year similar to what the Model S was at this stage of the X. Once they start releasing more info on the X reservations will increase. They are taking in roughly $400,000 daily in reservations. I have been thinking of selling my profit alone but have not done so yet instead I keep buying on a weekly basis (You read correctly "buying on a weekly basis")
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I think we are past the danger phase. Production has ramped up nicely. Tesla has shown all of us that they can make these cars. In September, when there was a danger that production would not ramp up at the proper pace was when Elon said they were in the critical phase. They did a secondary offering to bring in enough cash to get them over the hump. Elon is not a man to pull punches and we all saw the stress and nervousness when he spoke of the six month pitfall. There is plenty of evidence of his not holding back and everyone might remember the moment on 60 Minutes when they mentioned how astronauts thought SpaceX was reckless and dangerous. Elon was very choked up that his heroes didn't believe in him. Elon is now confident that Tesla will succeed.

So that is my reasoning for why Tesla is going to seriously kick @ss. If Elon is confident, then I am confident.
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The idea here is not to defend against the bear arguments, but to find the best bear arguments you can.

Then you can decide if you're being overly optimistic.
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smorgasbord said: ?

The idea here is not to defend against the bear arguments, but to find the best bear arguments you can.

Then you can decide if you're being overly optimistic.
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To me it seems to make more sense to put any arguments in their proper context, *before* using them to check your optimism.

BTW, if you are looking for more risks, you could also check Tesla's own SEC filings, usually at the end they contain a (somewhat) scary risk section. It is actually quite easy to come up with negative what-if scenarios.

There is actually a bunch of arguments that I can think of, which raise the question of whether I should be even more optimistic, long-term. But I think it would be 2-3 months too early for that discussion.

Right now, the question for me is if Tesla will use the first profits to cover areas that have been perhaps underfunded so far, and hire staff to get on top of things. However this point in time hasn't really come yet.
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Grendal said: ?

I think we are past the danger phase. Production has ramped up nicely. Tesla has shown all of us that they can make these cars. In September, when there was a danger that production would not ramp up at the proper pace was when Elon said they were in the critical phase. They did a secondary offering to bring in enough cash to get them over the hump. Elon is not a man to pull punches and we all saw the stress and nervousness when he spoke of the six month pitfall. There is plenty of evidence of his not holding back and everyone might remember the moment on 60 Minutes when they mentioned how astronauts thought SpaceX was reckless and dangerous. Elon was very choked up that his heroes didn't believe in him. Elon is now confident that Tesla will succeed.

So that is my reasoning for why Tesla is going to seriously kick @ss. If Elon is confident, then I am confident.
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Huh, you know the production rate? Can you tell me and what your source is? Company very quiet. Getting me scared. There would seem no reason to keep it a secret. I am long on company but have to wonder if I can continue that if they are not willing to announce production rate after new year. Unless lower than expected no reason to keep secret until conference call. Remember this is CEO who broadcast cash positive as soon as it happened. Criticism was only in his choice of media he chose to announce it in.
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I would be shocked if Tesla doesn't talk about the production rate at their next quarterly earnings call / announcement.

I would be equally shocked if Tesla says anything official and public about the production rate before the next quarterly earnings call / announcement. Between now and that quarterly earnings call / announcement, we'll be speculating about the production rate because its such an important indicator of Tesla's financial status, but again - I would be shocked if we have anything but speculation.
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ppl said: ?

Huh, you know the production rate? Can you tell me and what your source is? Company very quiet. Getting me scared. There would seem no reason to keep it a secret. I am long on company but have to wonder if I can continue that if they are not willing to announce production rate after new year. Unless lower than expected no reason to keep secret until conference call. Remember this is CEO who broadcast cash positive as soon as it happened. Criticism was only in his choice of media he chose to announce it in.
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I don't find this odd at all. We'll here soon enough. Can't expect up to the minute updates on the state of the business.

Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2
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Citizen-T said: ?

I don't find this odd at all. We'll here soon enough. Can't expect up to the minute updates on the state of the business.

Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2
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I do find it odd. He can't wait to tweet cash positive but suddenly develops restraint not to tell of another milestone. I know we will hear at cc but what about next week. Not asking minute to minute mundane updates but production rate was huge miss last qtr. by the way it's hear not here or hair
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ppl said: ?

I do find it odd. He can't wait to tweet cash positive but suddenly develops restraint not to tell of another milestone. I know we will hear at cc but what about next week. Not asking minute to minute mundane updates but production rate was huge miss last qtr. by the way it's hear not here or hair
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He probably 'got yelled at' for doing that. I believe it is illegal to do that sort of 'selective distribution of information' which is why the SEC just went after the Netflix CEO for tweeting that they reached a billion views. There are SEC social media rules in place. Elon probably learned his lesson and I wouldn't expect any other updates like that except for him posting stuff like links to articles published by other people talking about something positive for the company.
http://betabeat.com/2012/12/elon-musk-is-the-latest-tech-ceo-who-cant-be-bothered-by-secs-social-media-restrictions/
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ppl said: ?

I do find it odd. He can't wait to tweet cash positive but suddenly develops restraint not to tell of another milestone. I know we will hear at cc but what about next week. Not asking minute to minute mundane updates but production rate was huge miss last qtr. by the way it's hear not here or hair
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Thanks for the English lesson, but that was just auto-complete acting up. I should have proofed it before posting, but usually when I'm mobile, I'm rushed.

In the future you might want to make sure you have all your prepositions in your post where you criticize someone else's grammar.

"not asking minute to minute updates"

Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2
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There were a 'ton' of cars sitting outside on Christmas Day when we drove past the Fremont plant.
I had a feeling that they were getting close to the target as of the 1st of December when I picked up my car but they were near 300 / week at that time
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Zextraterrestrial said: ?

There were a 'ton' of cars sitting outside on Christmas Day when we drove past the Fremont plant.
I had a feeling that they were getting close to the target as of the 1st of December when I picked up my car but they were near 300 / week at that time
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How do you know they were at 300/week on 12/1 when you picked up car? More than one person told you hopefully... Thanks!
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FredTMC said: ?

How do you know they were at 300/week on 12/1 when you picked up car? More than one person told you hopefully... Thanks!
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close to 300, just under, from what I heard it was around 260 the week before december). We were also told to forget #'s (when a group of us was watching the station/employee times & looking at vins and sequence #'s)

I'd love to take another factory tour. Maybe someone can update from a more recent tour like last week/this week
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Zextraterrestrial said: ?

close to 300, just under, from what I heard it was around 260 the week before december). We were also told to forget #'s (when a group of us was watching the station/employee times & looking at vins and sequence #'s)

I'd love to take another factory tour. Maybe someone can update from a more recent tour like last week/this week
Click to expand...

260 a week isn't close to 300.

Who told you it was 260? You overheard someone in your tour group say it or did a Tesla employee tell you?
On Dec 24 I read they are producing about 200 a week and by the end of the year, 400.
http://www.jconline.com/article/20121223/NEWS/312230027/Tesla-owner-s-electric-cars-a-gas
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Zextraterrestrial said: ?

close to 300, just under, from what I heard it was around 260 the week before december). We were also told to forget #'s (when a group of us was watching the station/employee times & looking at vins and sequence #'s)

I'd love to take another factory tour. Maybe someone can update from a more recent tour like last week/this week
Click to expand...

Hopefully musk doesn't say forget numbers in cc
�

Perhaps production rate is already high on average (ie sometimes even higher), but still fluctuating...
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Zextraterrestrial said: ?

There were a 'ton' of cars sitting outside on Christmas Day when we drove past the Fremont plant.
I had a feeling that they were getting close to the target as of the 1st of December when I picked up my car but they were near 300 / week at that time
Click to expand...

Just spoke to a source in the minority whip operation in the House (ie a Dem) and they've been told to prepare to whip Democratic votes for a small package that addresses taxes and defers at least some of the sequester. McConal and Reid are working the details as we speak and it's not certain exactly what will come out of the Senate, but right now she thinks its based on the original Senate bill that lets taxes rise on income over 250k. Cap gains rise as scheduled and dividends get rolled back to the new cap gain rate instead of being taxed as normal income.

She isn't really sure yet though, except that the package is expected to rely on Dem votes to pass the House and that probably doesn't happen unless its close to the original senate bill.

I'm thinking I'll dip my toes back into TSLA tonight and put some orders in. Debt Ceiling isn't a crisis for 2 months, and by this evening we should have more info about the proposed package, which I expect to boost the market and create (potentially ilfounded) confidence in Washingtons ability to get a deal done on the debt ceiling.
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Norbert said: ?

To me it seems to make more sense to put any arguments in their proper context, *before* using them to check your optimism.
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Um, that's what I'm doing. Finding the best bear arguments and then see if they are good enough to make me more cautious. Got any really good ones I haven't yet covered?
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smorgasbord said: ?

Um, that's what I'm doing. Finding the best bear arguments and then see if they are good enough to make me more cautious. Got any really good ones I haven't yet covered?
Click to expand...

Honestly, I don't. (Except maybe something like: EV enthusiasts might lose their enthusiasm after a few years of working electric cars. However I think the opposite will happen, so that doesn't count.)
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Re: Production Rate. I was given VIN 2383 and told it was finishing the line on 12/16. Contributor Mark on the Sequencing thread was told his VIN 3229 was "finishing the line" now. If we take "now" as tomorrow and do the math, that is 846 in 14 days or 423/week. This should be pretty close.
�

Nice to see this channel of more reasonable analysis after spending way too much time defending Tesla against JP's latest attack.

I believe that Tesla is out of the woods and pretty much a sure thing.

Elon Musk has done it. He came up with a formula for how to make it work and then executed it well.

He created a car that is priced equal to or less than equivalent ICE cars in the same luxury class, and that operates at 20% or less of the cost of those cars, while out performing them on the road and with zero emissions.

He got the factory up to speed and operational, a little late, but it's done! He is shipping cars left and right.
The cars are winning awards left and right. There is a tremendous amount of excitement around the car!

Now we are entering a phase where momentum is building around the car as they are hitting the streets and more and more people are becoming aware of the advantages of this car, how cool it is, and how well it performs.

I wasn't that excited about the Leaf, or the Volt. I have never been this excited about any car as I am the Model S, and I am not alone, and that is by design- this is not supposed to be just another EV, it's designed to be the best best car, ever.

Most people don't realize that there is basically already a charging station at every house (120VAC outlet worst case) and because of that, with a little planning, an EV is MORE convenient than an ICE car for 99% of trips, not less convenient. There is no stop at the gas station anymore-- not to mention changing of oil and many other routine maintenance rituals embedded in ICE cars.

The supercharger stations turn this into a slam dunk.

The supercharger stations eliminate the very last adoption hurdle - the ability to take long trips. Sure it will take a couple of years to roll out, but people in the target demographic of the Model S can afford to wait and Tesla's business model at this phase is designed to survive and prosper on that relatively low volume of sales.

So maybe the best course of action we can take is to just buy long as much as we can, and hold. The more people shorting the stock, the bigger the short squeeze will be down the road.
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Alpha said: ?

Nice to see this channel of more reasonable analysis after spending way too much time defending Tesla against JP's latest attack.

I believe that Tesla is out of the woods and pretty much a sure thing.

Elon Musk has done it. He came up with a formula for how to make it work and then executed it well.

He created a car that is priced equal to or less than equivalent ICE cars in the same luxury class, and that operates at 20% or less of the cost of those cars, while out performing them on the road and with zero emissions.

He got the factory up to speed and operational, a little late, but it's done! He is shipping cars left and right.
The cars are winning awards left and right. There is a tremendous amount of excitement around the car!

Now we are entering a phase where momentum is building around the car as they are hitting the streets and more and more people are becoming aware of the advantages of this car, how cool it is, and how well it performs.

I wasn't that excited about the Leaf, or the Volt. I have never been this excited about any car as I am the Model S, and I am not alone, and that is by design- this is not supposed to be just another EV, it's designed to be the best best car, ever.

Most people don't realize that there is basically already a charging station at every house (120VAC outlet worst case) and because of that, with a little planning, an EV is MORE convenient than an ICE car for 99% of trips, not less convenient. There is no stop at the gas station anymore-- not to mention changing of oil and many other routine maintenance rituals embedded in ICE cars.

The supercharger stations turn this into a slam dunk.

The supercharger stations eliminate the very last adoption hurdle - the ability to take long trips. Sure it will take a couple of years to roll out, but people in the target demographic of the Model S can afford to wait and Tesla's business model at this phase is designed to survive and prosper on that relatively low volume of sales.

So maybe the best course of action we can take is to just buy long as much as we can, and hold. The more people shorting the stock, the bigger the short squeeze will be down the road.
Click to expand...

I agree with everything you said above and I'm a long term investor.
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Thumper said: ?

Re: Production Rate. I was given VIN 2383 and told it was finishing the line on 12/16. Contributor Mark on the Sequencing thread was told his VIN 3229 was "finishing the line" now. If we take "now" as tomorrow and do the math, that is 846 in 14 days or 423/week. This should be pretty close.
Click to expand...

VERY good news!!!

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Thumper said: ?

Re: Production Rate. I was given VIN 2383 and told it was finishing the line on 12/16. Contributor Mark on the Sequencing thread was told his VIN 3229 was "finishing the line" now. If we take "now" as tomorrow and do the math, that is 846 in 14 days or 423/week. This should be pretty close.
Click to expand...

VERY good news!!!
�

I'm looking to schedule my tour around mid-January
�

I had a nightmare last night that the short squeeze hit, and Tesla hit 400 dollars a share. However, for some reason I went to sell and all my TSLA shares were gone. They were in Microsoft for some reason.

Anyways, just a heads up in case I am dreaming of the future!
�

TESLA the nex DELOREAN? NO WAY JOSE!

TESLA the nex DELOREAN? NO WAY JOSE!

From the inception of TESLA motor�s IPO, many doubters have been comparing this company to the failures of other automotive companies such as Tucker and most notoriously, Delorean. Ever since the successful launch of Ford�s IPO over 60 years ago, approximately 5 other automotive companies have attempted to become the next big 4 of the American automotive industry�all have failed. It was from this premise that led many doubters to short TESLA stocks, betting that this new startup company would also meet the same fate as Delorean. However, as a historian and independent stock analyst, I am betting that TESLA will NOT meet the same fate as Delorean, but on the contrary, TESLA will be the next big 4. However, to understand why TESLA will succeed, we must first analyze why Delorean failed.

First let�s examine the company CEO

Delorean�s CEO was John Delorean. John Delorean quickly rose above the ranks in the automotive world and was making approximately $600,000 a year after bonuses at his peak (about $1.5 million in today�s money). Although Delorean had immense success while working with GM, we cannot compare his intellectual capability to that of ELon Musk, who is a certified Genius. By age 10, Musk was a self taught computer programmer and by age 12, had invented his first video game and sold it for $500. By the age of 28, Musk was a self made millionaire after selling his internet software publishing company known as Zip2 to Compaq for approximately $340 million in cash and stock options. If this isn�t enough to persuade you that Musk was destined for great accomplishments, his next big invention was PayPal, which sold to Ebay in 2002 for $1.5 BILLION.

Aside from being a brilliant entrepreneur and computer programmer, Musk is also a genius physicist who owns another business--a rocket company known as SpaceX. Currently Musk�s rocket company has billions of dollars in contracts from NASA, private satellite launches and the U.S military. SpaceX is the only private rocket company in the world that has successfully demonstrated its ability to dock with International Space Station. SpaceX has been so successful in building rockets, that it is capable of building its product efficiently enough to be less expensive than the entire Chinese government can; therefore, proving another of Musk strengths�his ability to innovate and invent. SpaceX currently owns the only known equipment in the world to build rockets so efficient that it will cost less if you contract with them rather than the Chinese.
It is through Musk�s genius that led him to create the TESLA Roadster, an electric car capable of zooming from the speed of 0-60 in 3.9 seconds, comparatively; Musk�s Roadster is faster than the Ferrari Modena Spider and F430 which clocks at 0-60 time of about 4 seconds. Imagine that! An electric car that�s faster than a Ferrari. Therefore, it�s through Elon�s genius and entrepreneur background that makes him a much more qualified engineer and CEO than John Delorean.
Delorean on the other hand was in financial trouble, he was indicted for being in a drug smuggling scheme to help finance his car company, this ultimately led to his company�s downfall as the company was in financial troubles. Delorean�s net worth was very minor compared to Musk, although a $600,000 annual salary was impressive, its nowhere comparable to Musk�s net worth which is somewhere in the billions. Another characteristic that sets Musk leagues apart from Delorean is Musk�s pulling power. When Musk talks, Washington listens, he is one of the best lobbyist and salesman to date, his presence commands attention. This was very much evident when SpaceX, a new startup company won contracts from NASA and U.S military when it competed in the ranks of Lockheed and Boeing. Even the state of California bent over backwards to lobby for Musk�s TESLA Motors to be stationed in the golden state. Presently if you buy a MODEL S in California, you will receive a $2,500 rebate check from the state and a HOV carpool pass. California also awarded TESLA $10,000,000 with incentive towards the production of it�s next vehicle�the model X. By the time Delorean had produce his first vehicle, the DMC-12, he was already in financial trouble. This is where we really draw the line between TESLA and Delorean. Despite being in financial trouble early on, Musk�s aggressive style investment in SpaceX, Solarcity and TESLA simultaneously proved to be a huge success. Clearly out of the woods in terms financial hardship, Musk led TESLA into the production of its 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] vehicle the MODEL S, and by next year the MODEL X, within 3 years the mass market 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] generation rumored to be known as �bluestar� will be available to the market around 30-40k. Presently, as of December 31, 2012, the MODEL S is virtually sold out with 19,983 anxious buyers.

Second, lets examine the Delorean DMC-12 to the TESLA Model S as both vehicles have comparable prices.

A Delorean DMC-12 would have cost you about $25,000 (which equates to about $63,000 in today�s money). However, take a closer look at a Delorean, and you will understand why this car was overpriced. First the Delorean 0-60 time clocked in at about 10.5 seconds by the Road&Track Magazine. While the TESLA Model S costing $52,000 base price (after rebates) has a 0-60 time of 6.5 seconds. Thus, the Delorean is a slow sports car at best, for the asking price Delorean was competing in the same market with faster sports cars such as Corvettes. The Model S, however, is in a class of its own, where else can you find a sleek sports luxury sedan capable of seating up to 7 passengers with sleek styling that runs on electric? Arguably, the Delorean DMC-12 was indeed a very stylish and sleek car during its time; however, asking 63k for a gas guzzling slow sports car is by the far not the right way of approaching the automotive market. The slow Delorean reportedly gets only 20MPG, thus further contributing it to failure. Why would anyone pay more for a slower vehicle that demands more Gas per miles of travel? This explains why Delorean reservations were extremely slow compared to that of the MODEL S. On the other hand, TESLA approached the automotive business by tapping into a new market. This market is one where the consumer would rather pay much less for MPG, instead of pumping gas into their cars, customers can fill up their battery with electricity�at a much cheaper cost. Furthermore, TESLA�s genius is that it ultimately was able to break the notion that electric cars are ugly, small and un-cool. By making the MODEL S fast, stylish, and roomy they are able to command higher prices for the vehicle. With a goal of only selling 20,000 Model S for 2013, TESLA is virtually sold out and the New Year has barely started TODAY.
Besides the cool, electric, stylish, spacious, luxury, and speed factor; the MODEL S has one more quality to it that the Delorean lacked�advance technology. The model S is the only car where it�s command center is a 17inch LCD touch screen. Not only is the touch screen an automotive marvel, it�s instantaneously responsive, smooth and more powerful than your IPAD. Additional tech such as regenerative GASING is available on the car; this means that the moment you release the gas pedal, the MODEL S immediately uses the kinetic energy to regenerate power into its batteries. The MODEL S also has better handling as the vehicle has a lower center of gravity, which gives the driver better control and less �roll� when the vehicle makes sharp turns.
Clearly, the MODEL S is worth the money for what the consumer is getting in return. Although only a small fraction of Americans can afford this car, TESLA claims that it would be profitable if 10,000 Model S are sold per year, a goal that appears within reach as production ramps up to 400 vehicles per week.

Third let�s examine the factories.

DeLorean�s factory was approximately 600,000 Square Foot set in Northern Ireland. It cannot possibly compare to TESLA�s NUMMI 5.3 million square foot plant set in America where it�s main customer base is located. The NUMMI plant is capable of producing up to 600,000 vehicles per year. TESLA bought the Nummi from a joint adventure of Toyota and GM. After buying the NUMMI plant, Tesla went to work and immediately sought after Detroit�s manufacturing tools and equipment during the downturn of the automotive industry and acquired those equipments for pennies on the dollar, saving TESLA billions of dollars in cash. Today, Tesla owns some of the world�s biggest aluminum stamping machines capable of producing hundreds of Model S per week at NUMMI. If you are curious about the NUMMI plant, I recommend you visit Youtube and type in the word �TESLA NATIONAL GEOGRAPHICS� and you will get a clearer understanding of production. No word or writing can convey what you will learn from watching this video, enjoy. I AM LONG TESLA
�

I am guessing it is not firm or at least not announced since I can not find the info anywhere .... but does anyone know when they will release q4 data? From looking at past releases it looks like maybe a couple weeks into January? any knowledge on this would be appreciated
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smorgasbord said: ?

Um, that's what I'm doing. Finding the best bear arguments and then see if they are good enough to make me more cautious. Got any really good ones I haven't yet covered?
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Domestic oil prices are dropping compared to world prices as North American demand drops and production rises and the infrastructure to export the excess isn't developed. This could reduce the demand for people to switch to electric in the medium term until that gets corrected.
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blakegallagher said: ?

I am guessing it is not firm or at least not announced since I can not find the info anywhere .... but does anyone know when they will release q4 data? From looking at past releases it looks like maybe a couple weeks into January? any knowledge on this would be appreciated
Click to expand...

Next quarterly call is on Feb 11th
TSLA: Summary for Tesla Motors, Inc.- Yahoo! Finance
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firstinflite said: ?

TESLA the nex DELOREAN? NO WAY JOSE!

...
Click to expand...

Nice first post. You should try write for SeekingAlpha or Fool (.com)

I'm attaching file for those who prefer to listen instead of reading big chunks of text. firstinflite.mp3
�

It's bad luck to spike the ball in the middle of a trading day. But I'm pretty sure that there's nothing wrong with planning which elements to include in the end of day happy dance..
�

Heh, put in an order before the market at $34 for about 1/7th of my position since I need the cash for some house repairs and the stock goes wild this morning.
�

I bet it's investors re-buying what they sold last year for tax reasons
�

Jhall118 said: ?

I had a nightmare last night that the short squeeze hit, and Tesla hit 400 dollars a share. However, for some reason I went to sell and all my TSLA shares were gone. They were in Microsoft for some reason.

Anyways, just a heads up in case I am dreaming of the future!
Click to expand...

Hopefully you are, but not in terms of your stock put into Microsoft.

However, there is another potential problem (at least with my IRA brokerage account). Good til cancelled doesn't mean what it says. There's a time limit. I have to check every month or two just to see that it hasn't been cancelled.
�

One possible hiccup that the bears may point at after this quarter's results is that of cancellations. I'm hoping for someone to step in and offer a counter.

Back in the July/August timeframe the estimate for my delivery (based on my reservation number) was May/June. Now it's Feb/Mar - which is great, but what explanation can there be for the much earlier delivery? It could be that the factory is working faster than predicted - yet the ramp up was delayed, so it would have to be working really faster to make up. Or it's due to a larger number of cancellations than anticipated. Delivery moved up by about 3 months, or 12 weeks; at 400 cars we week that's 12x400= 4800 places I've moved up in line; about 5000 cancellations. Given my reservation number in the low 11,000s that's over a third, nearly a half, of those orders ahead of me that cancelled.

I'm thrilled with the recent reservation rate, but can someone point out a flaw in my estimation of the cancellation rate?

I believe cancellations will decline over time, as the window between reservation and delivery shortens; less time to change minds or circumstances. This potential bear argument will weaken with that. This quarter could show particularly high cancellation numbers.
�

Originally Posted by firstinflite

TESLA the nex DELOREAN? NO WAY JOSE!

...
Nice first post. You should try write for SeekingAlpha or Fool (.com)

I'm attaching file for those who prefer to listen instead of reading big chunks of text. firstinflite.mp3
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Thanks bud, the Delorean issue has been on my mind for awhile, so I decided to compare the two companies and made pretty good findings, enjoy.
�

DriverOne said: ?

One possible hiccup that the bears may point at after this quarter's results is that of cancellations. I'm hoping for someone to step in and offer a counter.

Back in the July/August timeframe the estimate for my delivery (based on my reservation number) was May/June. Now it's Feb/Mar - which is great, but what explanation can there be for the much earlier delivery? It could be that the factory is working faster than predicted - yet the ramp up was delayed, so it would have to be working really faster to make up. Or it's due to a larger number of cancellations than anticipated. Delivery moved up by about 3 months, or 12 weeks; at 400 cars we week that's 12x400= 4800 places I've moved up in line; about 5000 cancellations. Given my reservation number in the low 11,000s that's over a third, nearly a half, of those orders ahead of me that cancelled.

I'm thrilled with the recent reservation rate, but can someone point out a flaw in my estimation of the cancellation rate?

I believe cancellations will decline over time, as the window between reservation and delivery shortens; less time to change minds or circumstances. This potential bear argument will weaken with that. This quarter could show particularly high cancellation numbers.
Click to expand...

You assume that they are capping the ramp at 400 cars per week. Elon has hinted in previous conference calls that he sees 20k a year as the minimum for 2013. With the current reservation trends, I'm sure they have the confidence to actually plan on a number well in excess of that. I would not be surprised to hear that they are already above 400 cars/week and intend to go to 600 cars/week by end of year.

Also, you over-estimate the effect of the production delay. The delay happened very early on when they were building very few cars. As they move up the exponential curve, those lost weeks early on become insignificant.
�

Originally Posted by DriverOne One possible hiccup that the bears may point at after this quarter's results is that of cancellations. I'm hoping for someone to step in and offer a counter.

Back in the July/August timeframe the estimate for my delivery (based on my reservation number) was May/June. Now it's Feb/Mar - which is great, but what explanation can there be for the much earlier delivery? It could be that the factory is working faster than predicted - yet the ramp up was delayed, so it would have to be working really faster to make up. Or it's due to a larger number of cancellations than anticipated. Delivery moved up by about 3 months, or 12 weeks; at 400 cars we week that's 12x400= 4800 places I've moved up in line; about 5000 cancellations. Given my reservation number in the low 11,000s that's over a third, nearly a half, of those orders ahead of me that cancelled.

I'm thrilled with the recent reservation rate, but can someone point out a flaw in my estimation of the cancellation rate?

I believe cancellations will decline over time, as the window between reservation and delivery shortens; less time to change minds or circumstances. This potential bear argument will weaken with that. This quarter could show particularly high cancellation numbers.
Click to expand...

You jumped ahead in line because you finalized your orders/configuration regarding color, interior choice, tech. packages, rim size, etc. before the others ahead of you which equated to you receiving your car ahead of those who are slower in choosing their configurations.
�

DriverOne said: ?

One possible hiccup that the bears may point at after this quarter's results is that of cancellations. I'm hoping for someone to step in and offer a counter.

Back in the July/August timeframe the estimate for my delivery (based on my reservation number) was May/June. Now it's Feb/Mar - which is great, but what explanation can there be for the much earlier delivery? It could be that the factory is working faster than predicted - yet the ramp up was delayed, so it would have to be working really faster to make up. Or it's due to a larger number of cancellations than anticipated. Delivery moved up by about 3 months, or 12 weeks; at 400 cars we week that's 12x400= 4800 places I've moved up in line; about 5000 cancellations. Given my reservation number in the low 11,000s that's over a third, nearly a half, of those orders ahead of me that cancelled.

I'm thrilled with the recent reservation rate, but can someone point out a flaw in my estimation of the cancellation rate?

I believe cancellations will decline over time, as the window between reservation and delivery shortens; less time to change minds or circumstances. This potential bear argument will weaken with that. This quarter could show particularly high cancellation numbers.
Click to expand...

My only thought regarding your accelerated delivery timeframe: I don't know your config, but have you factored in the possibility that there are a good number of those 5,xxx reservations that are configs which include either the 40 or 60 kwh batteries as well as the new multi-coat red which will not begin production until this year? I prefer to be more optimistic regarding cancellations and hope that many of that number are just different configs with expected later production start dates.
�

efxjim said: ?

I bet it's investors re-buying what they sold last year for tax reasons
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No, my guess is that it's related to the fiscal cliff resolution being passed. Off hand I can't think of a tax basis to wait till the 2nd to buy. AFAIK the cost basis is established when you buy the stock, but the tax rate is locked in based on when you sell.

I sold in early December because I expected tax rates to rise and because I was worried about the fiscal cliff affecting the market. If I had only been concerned about taxes I could have repurchased immediately and locked in a new cost basis.

Instead, I waited till this last weekend when it became clear how the cliff was being resolved and bought my shares back Monday morning. The rally was waiting on the bill being passed IMHO, though I must say I had some tense moments when Cantor publically started whipping against the bill. I was worried that there had been a double cross and the Republicans weren't going to allow a straight vote on the Senate bill.
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Citizen-T said: ?

You assume that they are capping the ramp at 400 cars per week. Elon has hinted in previous conference calls that he sees 20k a year as the minimum for 2013.
Click to expand...

In investor Q&A conference call Mask said that if demand would be there TM could produce 30 000 cars in 2013.

In separate interviews Musk said that TM is aiming at getting production rate as high as 500 cars a week by end of 2012, and in another one he said he would expect production rate to be higher then 400 by the end of 2012. Statements were made more then half a year ago, before TM slashed down production forecasts for 2012 and before TM ran into problems with suppliers etc. Now that problems seems to be behind them they might feel more confident about higher rates of production and thus adjusted estimated delivery dates to customers.
�

bluefuego and firstinflite, good points. I ordered a 60kWh pack and waited until 1 week left on my "finalize before then" date (I finalized just a couple of days ago). Even so, you're entirely right, those 4,800 or whatever I jumped over might not be cancellations at all, some portion of them will simply be delays in finalization, colors, or battery pack.

Citizen-T, it will be wonderful if they report they are building 5-600 cars a week!
�

DriverOne said: ?

Citizen-T, it will be wonderful if they report they are building 5-600 cars a week!
Click to expand...

That's a "when", not an "if"...
�

TSLA perhaps not sooo short?

Jhall118 said: ?

I had a nightmare last night that the short squeeze hit
Click to expand...

A stock broker friend of mine suggested that the huge number of reported shorts could also include shares by long-term stake holders that have been lent out. He told me that this is not something private share holders can do, but institutional (or very large private stack holders such as Elon) share holders might lend out there stock for a premium of, say, 6% per year.

The reason to borrow stock (and pay this premium) is to be eligible for stock at new emissions; the reason for lending stock is to earn that premium at the risk of not being able to sell the stock when it tanks.

I have never heard of this before. Does it make sense to any of you?
�

raymond said: ?

A stock broker friend of mine suggested that the huge number of reported shorts could also include shares by long-term stake holders that have been lent out. He told me that this is not something private share holders can do, but institutional (or very large private stack holders such as Elon) share holders might lend out there stock for a premium of, say, 6% per year.

The reason to borrow stock (and pay this premium) is to be eligible for stock at new emissions; the reason for lending stock is to earn that premium at the risk of not being able to sell the stock when it tanks.

I have never heard of this before. Does it make sense to any of you?
Click to expand...

I've never heard of that, and I'm not sure I see how it makes any sense. 6% is a LOT of money to pay for an investment, and I don't see where the returns are. But then again, I don't work on Wall Street.
�

Sounds a lot like plain old shorting. Perhaps the "premium" you are referring to is the fact that if you are shorting a stock that pays a 6% dividend then you will need to pay that dividend to your donor out of your own pocket.

This is one reason that high yield stocks tend to have fewer short sellers than those without this sort of "dividend protection".

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk HD
�

For you options gurus out there, I have a question on Bull Call Spreads vs Bull Put Spreads:

Does the pricing on TSLA Puts and Calls being non-aligned (Puts more expensive than Calls) make a Bull Put Spread potentially more profitable than a Bull Call Spread, for those looking for a low-risk short-term bullish play on TSLA?

TIA
�

Not an answer to your direct question, but I tried a bull call spread with poor results. The problem with TSLA options is the bid-ask spread controlled by the market maker is huge. This makes trading in and out of them difficult (a buy of a call and an immediate sell for example results in a large loss). This makes a spread less valuable as a tool. I stick with straight calls. Notice when TSLA moves higher into the strike, the ask price barely moves higher, but the market maker raises the bid price to simply squeeze the range.

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Citizen-T said: ?

Sounds a lot like plain old shorting. Perhaps the "premium" you are referring to is the fact that if you are shorting a stock that pays a 6% dividend then you will need to pay that dividend to your donor out of your own pocket.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk HD
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It's not dividend related and private holders can do this as well as institutional. When I held a large stock position (now replaced with call options), my broker organization asked me if I would lend my shares for a 6% annual interest rate. The lending is to allow shorts to short and in fact the only way shorts can short - every short share must be lent as an existing share. Once lent you can still sell your lent shares (forfeiting the interest of course). So the pool against short positions is continually dynamic. When everyone stops selling shares due to an event, the stock price rise causes shorts to cover but in addition the pool of available loaned shares reduces causing acceleration of the short squeeze. This is pronounced if most of the shares held are institutional or insiders as these are not often lent for shorts (some institutions don't allow it as I understand it). raymon's post of what a broker told him I believe is misleading as it suggests short positions are double counted as loaned. I don't think this is correct, the loaned pool is not added to short positions that are officially reported as short positions held. I'm no expert, but this is my experience and understanding. Happily corrected if others know differently
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kenliles said: ?

The problem with TSLA options is the bid-ask spread controlled by the market maker is huge.
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Isn't the real problem the low volumes for non-near-term options? If there was sufficient volume, the market maker wouldn't have the power.

kenliles said: ?

I stick with straight calls. Notice when TSLA moves higher into the strike, the ask price barely moves higher, but the market maker raises the bid price to simply squeeze the range.
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There's not much demand for Calls. Puts are where the action is, I think because that's what the Shorters have available. There are no more shares to borrow, so they buy Puts to accomplish much the same thing. They're expecting TSLA to drop, which would make their Puts worth more. I'm happy to sell Puts to them and either take their money outright, or end up buying more TSLA at cheap prices. And, I've been using the money from the Puts to pay for the Calls I'm buying, which means I get free Synthetic Longs.

With Puts paying so well it makes sense for me to do Syn Longs - selling Puts to pay for the Calls. I was just wondering if the more risk-adverse BCS/BPS might be another way to play an advance in Tesla. I know people using BCS (Bull Call Spreads) in AAPL right now, for instance.

On the Syn Longs, I'm currently thinking of doing a Jan 2015 $35 Put/$28 Call. I can get into that and get paid about $2/share, and should TSLA be $40 in 2 years, I'll be making about $14/share total. That's twice the profit compared to buying today at $33, and requires no money up front. I wouldn't start losing money until TSLA drops below $30.50. At $28 I'd be down $5/share, which is about what you'd be down if you bought the stock today and held.

A more risk-adverse Syn Long is the $28 Put/$35 Call, which is free to start and has no loses above $28 but doesn't start making money until TSLA is above $35. BTW, if Tesla skyrockets and you want to stay along for the ride, you simply exercise the Call and buy the stock at $28 2 years from now.

However, I don't want to over-expose myself on a potential drop in Tesla, which is why I was thinking some low-risk BCSs might also be a good strategy. I guess I just need to find a good BCS/BPS analysis tool.
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smorgasbord said: ?

Isn't the real problem the low volumes for non-near-term options? If there was sufficient volume, the market maker wouldn't have the power.
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Well yes that's the real problem (note the spreads are huge even for the highest volume LEAPS). In the end, I agree more volume would cut the power of the m-maker but waiting for that to happen means waiting for the stock price to go up and/or shorts to clear which defeats the purpose of today's purchased bull spread since it will have to absorb that before making profit (even more than the straight call since the spread forces a ceiling on e eventual profit)

smorgasbord said: ?

There's not much demand for Calls. Puts are where the action is, I think because that's what the Shorters have available. There are no more shares to borrow, so they buy Puts to accomplish much the same thing.
With Puts paying so well it makes sense for me to do Syn Longs - selling Puts to pay for the Calls.
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Yes generally I really like your synthetic long strategy. For some maybe just a Put sell works better (with appropriate margin coverage)

smorgasbord said: ?

I was just wondering if the more risk-adverse BCS/BPS might be another way to play an advance in Tesla. I know people using BCS (Bull Call Spreads) in AAPL right now, for instance.
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Yes true, but again the huge difference is the spreads in APPL for both calls are tight due to volume, even when apple is being sold. That strategy works well for Apple or QQQ or other tight spread stock. There's also a well established history and short position with a stock like apple making limits to upside manageable (vs straight calls). With Tesla, the upside is especially unknown, given the short squeezing potential

smorgasbord said: ?

On the Syn Longs, I'm currently thinking of doing a Jan 2015 $35 Put/$28 Call. I can get into that and get paid about $2/share, and should TSLA be $40 in 2 years, I'll be making about $14/share total. That's twice the profit compared to buying today at $33, and requires no money up front. I wouldn't start losing money until TSLA drops below $30.50. At $28 I'd be down $5/share, which is about what you'd be down if you bought the stock today and held.

A more risk-adverse Syn Long is the $28 Put/$35 Call, which is free to start and has no loses above $28 but doesn't start making money until TSLA is above $35. BTW, if Tesla skyrockets and you want to stay along for the ride, you simply exercise the Call and buy the stock at $28 2 years from now.

However, I don't want to over-expose myself on a potential drop in Tesla, which is why I was thinking some low-risk BCSs might also be a good strategy. I guess I just need to find a good BCS/BPS analysis tool.
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Yep, I like those plays a lot from my perspective and for those that already own straight calls, you can put this on even now by just selling some puts against them
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One other thought I'll throw out there. There's arguably a severe downdraft potential for the entire market mid feb hru mar with debt ceiling default that Amy induce a swing down below the put that normally wouldn't occur, potentially with an unexpected put to you. Makes the long term put strategy unusually vulnerable for what might be even a short time, but still there. For those that have intentions of pulling back or shorting the entire market during that time, might consider it.

One potential would be to sell Feb puts for the anticipated report upswing. Then hold LEAP calls through the cliff downdraft, during which you sell puts. Tough timing but if that's what you believe is likely to happen (my current thinking), might be a consideration
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kenliles said: ?

There's arguably a severe downdraft potential for the entire market mid feb hru mar with debt ceiling default ...
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Your strategy makes sense, but I prefer to keep things simple. Rather than trying to time individual Puts and Calls, I just have some dry powder reserved to snap up bargains if/when they appear. Knowing that a good company's stock is down only because of some basically unrelated event is, I think, a good way to invest. As Buffet said: If you do want to time the market, be greedy when others are fearful. It does take fortitude, though. I may sell some volatile high flyers this month to have some more cash available when the sale starts.
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smorgasbord said: ?

Your strategy makes sense, but I prefer to keep things simple. Rather than trying to time individual Puts and Calls, I just have some dry powder reserved to snap up bargains if/when they appear.
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That works too. Good advice. Just be a little more careful on the puts strike. It may get caught in the downdraft and get put to you before you're ready. The good news there is that we just experienced some of it and TSLA actually held up pretty well. I'd guess with a good report coming, it would again
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kenliles said: ?

That works too. Good advice. Just be a little more careful on the puts strike.
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I keep double-daring TSLA to really drop by selling Puts on dips, but it almost always flinches first. I figure if it does double-drop, I end up with shares at a good basis. Right now I'm in for Mar $20 Puts at $2.45 and Jun $32 Puts at $5.68 that got me some matching Calls and cash. There's some risk in the Jun $32s, but I've got two quarterly reports in which to make money on the corresponding Calls.

If I wanted to go out on a limb, from the latest down drift, I might guess that people are scouring TMC and figuring that Tesla is at the low end of their 2012 Q4 production promises.

Of course, just a week after June Option expiration, the stock price of Tesla and Axion will have crossed, at least according to stock seer John Petersen http://seekingalpha.com/article/296317-plug-in-vehicles-weighed-in-the-balance-and-found-wanting#comment-1942657
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Is Tesla a Buy, A Short Or a Stay away?

From Seeking Alpha a more balanced article than most. Nice to see also see some really positive comments from Model S owners.

From analyst Sam Wong who says he is long on Tesla
"Recent Tesla (TSLA) stock analysis has been like a schizophrenia swinging between titles such as "History And Valuation Makes Cash Guzzling Tesla A Short" and "Buy This Apple of the Auto Industry". There is no shortage of strong opinions on both sides. The stock itself has lately been an enigma. While 49% of the outstanding shares are shorted, the share price has appreciated 20% in the last two months. If you feel torn on this one, you have plenty of company. Will Tesla succeed? There is no simple answer. I have collected 15 common arguments from both sides and listed them below in no particular order. I will give you my brief comments. You will be the judge."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1098721-is-tesla-a-buy-a-short-or-a-stay-away?source=email_rt_article_readmore
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smorgasbord said: ?

I keep double-daring TSLA to really drop by selling Puts on dips, but it almost always flinches first.

Of course, just a week after June Option expiration, the stock price of Tesla and Axion will have crossed, at least according to stock seer John Petersen http://seekingalpha.com/article/296317-plug-in-vehicles-weighed-in-the-balance-and-found-wanting#comment-1942657
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Know what you mean. Every drop gets bought. Those are decent bets, even if u have to take the $32 put in march (us default on debt ceiling). It will recover quickly and to your point 2 good reports likely coming.

JP will have a lot of explaining to do by the end of this year. None of which will actually happen, eliminating his and similar influence on stock price
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Any news causing the sharp falloff (-3% today)?
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I almost feel like hype drives this stock sometimes. No news means bad news or something to that extent.
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The market is down in general today. I think Tesla is feeling an enhanced effect of that.
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Wonder if we are sdown because of lithium ion battery issue in Boeing 787? Conjecture that they may have produced fire on plane. I would think we would know if issue in cars already with number on road
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I'm ready to buy back in at $32 as it meets resistance.
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ppl said: ?

Wonder if we are sdown because of lithium ion battery issue in Boeing 787? Conjecture that they may have produced fire on plane. I would think we would know if issue in cars already with number on road
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I thought of that as well. Fortunately it looks to be the wiring on the ground power unit battery, so no real effect
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kenliles said: ?

I thought of that as well. Fortunately it looks to be the wiring on the ground power unit battery, so no real effect
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Reality doesn't always reflect emotions. Just association of lithium battery and problem could have been responsible
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ppl said: ?

Reality doesn't always reflect emotions. Just association of lithium battery and problem could have been responsible
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So true
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Sold some options before the Holidays because I was worried about Congress and the "Fiscal Cliff" Just moved most of my position into June 34 call options. I am a very small investor ... my Total position is about 3500 dollars
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I guess I should have just held.
When it hit $30, I sold my small-ish position that I held since the IPO. Now, I'm trying to time a buy. Against what I expect to be good news for Model S sales and reservation rate in Q4, I think the debt ceiling gamesmanship could depress everything enough to be an opportunity. Also, I expect the good news on the Model S to be muted by a delay in the Model X. I just haven't heard much from Tesla with less than a year to go to believe they're on schedule. So, when they announce a 6-9 mo Model X slip in the midst of all the Beltway B.S.; perhaps that's an opportunity.
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Sparky said: ?

Also, I expect the good news on the Model S to be muted by a delay in the Model X. I just haven't heard much from Tesla with less than a year to go to believe they're on schedule. So, when they announce a 6-9 mo Model X slip in the midst of all the Beltway B.S.; perhaps that's an opportunity.
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Eh, they have said they aren't going to be giving us updates on future models the way they did on the Model S anymore. They want to play things closer to the chest moving forward. Makes sense, they needed to keep people interested with Model S for several years the (at times excessive) transparency in the development process achieved that. I don't think that silence on the X is any indication of where they are in the process. They just don't need to keep us occupied anymore. We've got Model S to do that now.

Now, that's not to say I necessarily expect X to be on time. But I think a 6-9 mo. slip is a bit much; if there is one at all. And I'd need to see some actual evidence to support that. The lack of evidence that they are making progress isn't convincing.
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Sparky said: ?

I guess I should have just held.
When it hit $30, I sold my small-ish position that I held since the IPO. Now, I'm trying to time a buy. Against what I expect to be good news for Model S sales and reservation rate in Q4, I think the debt ceiling gamesmanship could depress everything enough to be an opportunity. Also, I expect the good news on the Model S to be muted by a delay in the Model X. I just haven't heard much from Tesla with less than a year to go to believe they're on schedule. So, when they announce a 6-9 mo Model X slip in the midst of all the Beltway B.S.; perhaps that's an opportunity.
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I do not believe there will be deal until last second if there is a deal at all. Lesson learned from previous round is that markets will assume, like previous round, that last second deal will occur so don't rally expect response before. Even previous downgrade of credit rating resulted in drop in treasury rate, nobody but you and I care. I do not expect them to admit to delay in model x since delivery time frame left so open ended. I don't see that concern yet. I would like them to announce rate of production now, I don't understand delay in that why no news just makes stock drift. Curious if he sticks with 25% margin claim when most people use 15% in their calculation for this company
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ppl said: ?

Curious if he sticks with 25% margin claim when most people use 15% in their calculation for this company
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Related to that, I'm wondering how Tesla discusses the margins given I think most cars are coming with due bill parts and it's always more expensive to do those sorts or things after the fact. The parcel shelf is just a ship it, but I've got carbon fiber interior elements due and that'll take a Ranger visit. Plus, we've got the various physical issues being reported (gaps on some cars, paint mismatch issue one person just reported, my charge port door didn't work, etc). There aren't enough sample points to know if the defect rate is unusually high, but it seems reasonable to figure the initial run of cars will have more costs to diagnose/fix such things and roll those fixes back into the production line. Presumably the 25% margin is after those kinks are worked out.
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Well yeah. I think your last comment is it. The 25% number is once they hit their stride. I wouldn't expect to see that until at least summer if not EOY. I just want to see improvement in that direction in the short term.

Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2
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Citizen-T said: ?

Well yeah. I think your last comment is it. The 25% number is once they hit their stride. I wouldn't expect to see that until at least summer if not EOY. I just want to see improvement in that direction in the short term.

Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2
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I agree any anouncement that they are continuing to be positive with gross margins improving should move the stock. Of course if they announce that margins are not improving that might tank my options
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Citizen-T said: ?

Eh, they have said they aren't going to be giving us updates on future models the way they did on the Model S anymore. They want to play things closer to the chest moving forward.....
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Do you have a citation? This is counter to Elon's MO. He thrives on flashy announcements for marketing purposes. They are each strategically timed to hit before financial announcements of various kinds.
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vfx said: ?

Do you have a citation? This is counter to Elon's MO. He thrives on flashy announcements for marketing purposes. They are each strategically timed to hit before financial announcements of various kinds.
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Pretty sure it was said in a conference call some time ago. I don't really have a min to look it up right now, perhaps someone else knows off the top of their head.

Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2
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vfx said: ?

Do you have a citation? This is counter to Elon's MO. He thrives on flashy announcements for marketing purposes. They are each strategically timed to hit before financial announcements of various kinds.
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The two aren't incompatible. Steve Jobs was the master of both playing things close to the chest and making flashy announcements. The only question is the timing of the flashy announcement. The longer you go without any news at all on something, the greater the anticipation for the announcement.
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Short interest down 10% last two weeks.
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So what's up today? Pretty hard sell-off, followed by bounce back.
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Wondering the same thing my self... Low volume, possible Friday short attack? I haven't seen any news on the wire, have you?
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May be this.

Lawsuit Alleges Cronyism In Obama Administration Loans | Power Line
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I picked up some more on the dip.
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tslas said: ?

May be this.

Lawsuit Alleges Cronyism In Obama Administration Loans | Power Line
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Wow, that's unintentionally hilarious. You should have posted it in the Anti-Tesla Gibberish thread instead.
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With the current production rates I am buying on the dip as well. They need a lot of process improvement on their delivery and supply chain side. When they get those processes worked out sales will accellerate.
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tslas said: ?

May be this.

Lawsuit Alleges Cronyism In Obama Administration Loans | Power Line
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Doug_G said: ?

Wow, that's unintentionally hilarious. You should have posted it in the Anti-Tesla Gibberish thread instead.
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I can't even find a website for them. But I think their DOE loan refusal was probably due to some outrageous claims that could not ever be met. More humor below. Less expensive than the cheapest of electrical bicycles. Longer range than any EV (even an essentially perpetually flying Helios type aircraft). Faster than a Tesla. Able to charge off of USB!. Lower CTO than a golf cart.

XP Vehicles Inc. said:

Our design is:� Less expensive than ANY other EV � Longer range than ANY other EV � Safer than ANY other EV � Faster than a Tesla � More room than a Tesla � Less carcinogenic than ANY gasoline car. � Able to be charged in more places than ANY EV. � Able to be charged in more ways than ANY EV. � Lower cost to build than ANY EV. � Lower total cost of ownership than ANY EV. � Faster to install a factory for than ANY other EV. � Less expensive in factory roll-out than ANY other EV. � Less capital intensive than ANY other EV. � Lower in cost for energy storage than ANY other EV. ... and competitor-busting on many other metrics
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Found on this site Vator - XP Vehicles, Inc. company profile
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wow...xpv is just unbelievable. I certainly hope this gets immediately thrown out. Completely ridiculous.
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Their website is for sale. myxpcar.com: The Leading My XP Car Site on the Net (from their LinkedIn page).
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ElSupreme said: ?

I can't even find a website for them.
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I hate to post the link, but here it is: XP Vehicles, XP Vehicle

They were trying to build inflatable EV that could not be plugged in because it were supposedly get a fuel cells... You can see couple low res renders there but site now clearly about politics. And I suspect company always have been about politics, not about building cars.
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Discoducky said: ?

I picked up some more on the dip.
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Me too. In poker terms, I'm all in.

On November 30th, ABG did an article on XP vehicles and their suit against the DOE.

XP Technology sues DOE over advanced vehicle loan rejection
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I believe it's the Boeing battery fire again. FAA to look into lithium battery. Total nonsense it's not the battery but how it's set up. Remember exploding cell phone. Market just looking for any excuse and shorts jump on it. Wish they would release some production number
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JeanLuc said: ?

Wondering the same thing my self... Low volume, possible Friday short attack? I haven't seen any news on the wire, have you?
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Maybe it's this article from yesterday on Green Car Reports:

How Many Tesla Model S Electric Cars Were Built In 2012? How Many Sold?

Perhaps people expected Tesla to beat there own estimate and this article makes them belief that's not going to happen. In my opinion the article is not helpful, it takes the surprise out of Tesla's Q4 and year end announcement.
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mulder1231 said: ?

Maybe it's this article from yesterday on Green Car Reports:

How Many Tesla Model S Electric Cars Were Built In 2012? How Many Sold?

Perhaps people expected Tesla to beat there own estimate and this article makes them belief that's not going to happen. In my opinion the article is not helpful, it takes the surprise out of Tesla's Q4 and year end announcement.
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I think that the GreenCarReports article is a response to other articles, for example the one on Plugincars.com, which in turn is based on a Dec 20th MarketWatch article. That article is based mostly on Q3 financials, and doesn't even mentioned that until and including Q3, Tesla was investing a lot in Model S production and ramp-up, whereas following Q3 it started producing Model S in earnest. It doesn't even mention Model S at all. (But strangely, shortly mentions Elon's positive cash flow tweet, yet withholds judgement about whether it is a reliable info). Most of the article tries to point out Tesla's need for additional cash, but mentions the post-Q3 $200 million capital raise only as an afterthought to be dealt with in the "next column". Reads like the author learned about that only after writing the rest of article.

The GreenCarReports article adds additional info (much more so than the Plugincars.com article), but still wonders if the current stock price could be based solely on the optimistic side, ignoring that TSLA is one of the most shorted stocks (I guess even after the shorts went down from 29,091,311 as of 12/14/2012, to 26,854,593 as of 12/31/2012). As everyone should know, there have been tons of articles expressing the bearish side, even if recently there has been a shift towards bullish views (for obvious reasons).
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Follow the Money boys and girls... The lawsuit was brought on by lawyers who work for Koch Foundation... ie Charles Koch 1/2 of the infamous Koch brothers, anti Obama right wing Republicans who are pro big oil and denounce everything to do with the green movement. Follow the money trail and it leads to these bowery boy millionaires...
Bottom line, more pressure by the Shorts buying puts.
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Or may be it is this. This news came out few days back and ever since TSLA has been dipping back slowly.
SanDisk Hires Former Tesla GC for Top Legal Spot

Erik Whitaker's LinkedIn Profile:Eric Whitaker | LinkedIn
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Sour grapes:

94.
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For example, Tesla, using taxpayer money to build a luxury vehicle aimed at rich actors, media personalities and businessmen, has repeatedly missed production targets, burned through cash and required DOE to repeatedly renegotiate loan terms to survive.
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Like XP would do something different if they were given the money.

- - - Updated - - -

Zzzz... said: ?

I hate to post the link, but here it is: XP Vehicles, XP Vehicle

....
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Here is the TMC thread on them. The site is dead but my comment is telling.

XP Electric Vehicle
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It also might be due to following news. Ever since this news came out few days back, Stock has been going down slowly.

Eric S. Whitaker Appointed as SanDisk's Chief Legal Officer - DailyFinance
SandDisk Hires Former Tesla GC For Top Legal Spot.

Eric Whitaker | LinkedIn
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Nothing but naysayers. Seriously, a lot of these articles don't seem to have solid backing behind such claims. I mean I don't consider myself an actor/media personality/business man. I work in IT.

Also... a 60k car while is a luxury car price, is not out of range for people... perhaps many, but its not a one percenter vehicle.
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tslas said: ?

It also might be due to following news. Ever since this news came out few days back, Stock has been going down slowly.
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That's old news from November Tesla's GC Hits the Brakes

Definitely no correlation.
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Quote from the book I just read:

Ray Kurzweil said:

We confabulate all the time in explaining the outcome of events. If you want a good example of this, just tune in to the daily commentary on the movement of financial markets. No matter how the markets perform, it�s always possible to come up with a good explanation for why it happened, and such after-the-fact commentary is plentiful. Of course, if these commentators really understood the markets, they wouldn�t have to waste their time doing commentary.
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I agree with Ray and do not think there was any "news" that affected price today. Just someone decided to dump $7M worth of shares at around 9:50... And reason for that decision was probably not based on anything that was posted on the Internet in recent hours, if not days. They might just needed some cash fast Or there could be gazillion other possible reasons.

And same was the case, you remember, after Musk's cash flow positive twit price gone down next morning. Twit was a positive news, and it affected stock price, but other forces made stock to actually go down.
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To change subject. Google earth tesla plant and count cars lined up. Over 400. Of course don't know date it was taken but must be fairly recent with that many cars
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ppl said: ?

To change subject. Google earth tesla plant and count cars lined up. Over 400. Of course don't know date it was taken but must be fairly recent with that many cars
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In Google Earth image is dated 28 Sep for me. And there is less then 30 S there.

In Google Maps image is the same as above under direct view, but 45% angled view showing this:

Is that what you counted? I do not think this is Model Ses...
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it is strange...the latest google earth image is VERY old. the front of the building says NUMMI again. It was more up to date 4-5 months ago when I looked and it was clearly a Tesla plant and all the paint and logos were current. Somebody at Google is playing games.
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Zoom in for Street View on Kato Rd and the sign says Tesla.
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Effect of Q4 Financials in Feb. on Tesla stock price?

After a recent Model S test drive, I'm confident that Tesla has a bright future and the time is about right to invest more substantially.

I've read that Tesla built and delivered approx. 3,000 cars by end of Dec., most of which would have been in Q4.
Does anyone on the forum who has been tracking quarterly results, stock market analysts 'expectations' etc. have any thoughts on
whether the likely Q4 results will temporarily hurt or help stock price when announced? Understood that any analysis is going to be very speculative at this point.
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The thread for that is here.
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There is a Investment stock thread here: TSLA Investor News

However, I am A) Very new to investing and B) Long term on TSLA so take my speculation like you would a crazy homeless man that sees dead people. I think the Q4 report will be a mix. There will be concerns about delivery screw ups, of which there has been a moderate amount. But there will also be positives of hitting deadlines and being able to get the product out to the customer. Ultimately though, I think anyone familiar with Tesla as a company that is investing expected the ramp up for delivery to have some bumps. You would be blind to think a newer company to the mass market field wouldn't have issues in the beginning. Compound that with dumb state laws (Texas, I am looking at you) and you have some obvious complications.

Ultimately, I think it will be positive, an air of "Going as planned" type of deal will be felt. In the news I see most if not all lawsuits for dealerships fighting Tesla have been batted down and dropped, thrown out of court. So I think it will be middle of the road, if not slightly positive.
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Bobfitz1 said: ?

I've read that Tesla built and delivered approx. 3,000 cars by end of Dec., most of which would have been in Q4.
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Tesla probably built around 3200 to 3300 cars last year.
But actual deliveries - they would be lucky to get them to around 2600 level.

Does anyone on the forum who has been tracking quarterly results, stock market analysts 'expectations' etc. have any thoughts on
whether the likely Q4 results will temporarily hurt or help stock price when announced? Understood that any analysis is going to be very speculative at this point.
Click to expand...

I think there would be two big news. First is a production rate of over 400 cars per week. Something in a range of 420 - 450 cars.
Second is a number of new reservations(check tally thread).

Together they make total number of cars produced and delivered largely irrelevant. Tesla is not limited by demand, and as long as TM is able to archive high production rate, how fast they got to that rate dose not really matter. Basically 400+ rate retire risk that Tesla's supply chain is incapable of keeping up and would require extra investments and restructuring.

Reservations numbers will help to mitigate question about long term demand for Model S. It would not totally retire the question, but will help to install some more confidence about continues demand.

The big question that will remain largely unanswered would be gross margins. To see dynamics on that one market would have to wait for next quarterly report.

But overall I think market reaction to Q4 results release would be on a positive side.
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yowser- I'm much more bullish than Bardlebee and Zzzz
Assuming the report 1) Announces full 400/week production, around 3000 delivered, reservations securing bulk of 2013 20,000+ production, and balance sheet showing all their cash was not in fact used as some speculative reports have surmised; this will produce a blow through 36 toward 40 and set off some shorts really squeezing out. Along with that the loss will turn in a positive direction (a significantly smaller number and moving positive for next quarter)- gonna be one of the best stock moving reports TSLA has seen in a long time IMO- buy before the announcement
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kenliles said: ?

balance sheet showing all their cash was not in fact used as some speculative reports have surmised;
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All big money know that TM got $222M from secondary offering. Add $86M cash and equivalents as of Sep 30 and TM got enough cash to survive whole year assuming they spend at rate they were spending in Q1-Q3 12. But their CAPEX probably dropped substantially now that TM fully equipped plant and supply chain.

Point is, this one largely priced into shares already, but yeah, some will need to see numbers with their own eyes.

BTW, TM have collected ~9000 new reservations for production Model S US and EU version and US X since end of September. That would translate into $45M cash that could be used as working capital.
Sure there were cancellations but there were Signatures reservations and reservations on other markets too..
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The Q4 results will be announced in February, and I'd guess by then Tesla will be able to say that everything actually happened which needs to happen for Tesla to become a profitable company. However I'm not sure in how far overall Q4 results will already show this in numbers. Perhaps it takes the Q1 2013 numbers for this to become completely clear.

Tesla will probably be able to reach their revised expectations, but not the original ones. So I think the results will not be even better than hoped for, but also not as bad as feared: the end-of-year results should already show that Tesla can make it easily through 2013/2014 at least. However in order to be convincing, they might have to add information about the latest January 2013 developments, and perhaps only the Q1 2013 results will prove it in numbers.

Recently the short interest went down from 29+ million to 26+ million, and I'd guess that after the February announcement of the Q4 results, it will have gone down even further. Yet some pessimism will remain until there is further proof of continued demand, and until it becomes clear that the established auto manufacturers will not as easily catch up as some might believe (and also not just "buy" Tesla).

While the financial numbers should show reduced risks, they don't necessarily show increased promises. However I'd think that the positive reviews of Model S are based on true potential (not only the best EV, but also one of the best cars), and that this potential is only partially reflected in the share price already. This may happen in the next few months.
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Reuters released this Elon news an hour ago... "Tesla CEO aims for profit in 2013"

google it.
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teslamotorclub

Thứ Bảy, 29 tháng 10, 2016

TSLA Investor Discussions part 36

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