Chủ Nhật, 30 tháng 10, 2016

Alternative Energy Investor Discussions part 14

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I bought the TAN ETF awhile back at around 17. Nice thing as it's about as diversified as you can get.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I added some sol today. I couldn't find any reason for the pull back. I also am seeing their name more and more and I feel this is a good thing. Csiq is by far my largest solar position. I'd like to get some more tsl.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I hold SCTY and SPWR as tops also; I added a third recently CSIQ; reasons were 1) pedigree of management and company 2) a good blend to the other 2 as they have similar SCTY model, but make their own panels in China. So this 3-some invests in best business model for systems deployment (SCTY), best R&D and panel technology leader (SPWR) and one that successfully straddles that with excellent China exposure but not a Chinese company; Then i have a small Chinese play in JKS along with a base investment in TAN for the industry at large
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The order if my solar positions are.

    1 csiq
    2 tsl
    3 sol
    4 yge
    5 jaso

    Sol was fourth going into today but with the pullback I bought some more.

    I'd like to add some more tsl and reestablish a position in SPWR. I'm hoping for a pullback in SPWR but may not get it.

    My csiq position is much heavier than I wanted but I think they are the strongest tier 1 china company so I am ok with it. I didn't put any more capital into it than the others, I just had better timing and option strategy. I lost out big by selling my sol October calls I had bought 3 months ago the day before the run up last week. I still made a little in them but I could have made 3x more. Had I not done that sol would be #2 because I would have rolled half of them to apr 14. (Which is what I bought today)

    As installers we have installed tsl the most, csiq, et solar, SPWR, then schott panels(when USA made was requested). Schott is no longer making crystalline panels.

    I was getting killer deals on tsl panels for over a year which is why they are at the top. Now that their price is the same as the others again We have been installing csiq the most.

    Keep your eyes on the news feeds next week for new solar product announcements. There is a huge conference in Chicago.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The problem with TAN is like I said, you get the good with the bad. I didn't study the ETF, because I don't plan on investing in it ever again, but my understanding is that you have all solar exposure, i.e. installers, panel makers, microbinverters, poly producers, equipment makers, etc. And even though there is a bull market in solar, there is a bear market in some solar sub-categories. So you are getting the bad with the good.

    I haven't researched these topics as extensively, so please do your own due diligence, but solar equipment makers such as GTAT are struggling mightily because nobody is expanding new capacity and there is no need to buy new equipment. '

    I also have a feeling that the microbinverter market (SMA, PowerOne, etc.) are going to get squeezed hard. They are now enjoying really high margins, but soon there will be cheap Chinese competitors like Renesola's Micro RePlus.

    Therefore if my companies, such as CSIQ, JASO, SPWR, SOL, JKS, TSL, etc. go up 300%, then TAN might go up 100%. But if my companies go down 50%, TAN will probably go down 50% or maybe even more, but most likely it will not lose a lot less than those guys.

    There is really no upside in investing in TAN in my opinion. Diversification is not all that it is cracked out to be.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    sleepy- for your trading category of investment I agree; but for other categories of investing I disagree. TAN doesn't replace the individual company investments. Your criteria for TAN (too diversified) is the same as all diversified ETFs and so would eliminate investments in any diversified fund. TAN is very appropriate for monies not allocated to individual companies - IRAs, monies not wanting exposure to high risk, monies that seek quarterly interest (TAN currently yields 4.2%), monies in trust funds that inactively managed. etc. These investments are in addition to the category of your discussion- not in replacement. In addition, for those that want exposure to Solar without managing issues that change over time- such as micro-inversion being hit hard (a situation that will flux over the months and years). Some like a set of investment dollars applied to a decade without management of changing companies and trends. TAN portfolio mix is continuously modified by the fund management - 5 years from now the companies your invested in may not even exist and non-self managed funds will still want Solar exposure.

    current TAN holdings and % -
    ETFs | Guggenheim Investments
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    kenliles - I just gave my honest opinion on TAN. Now, if you have an IRA that only allows you to trade mutual funds or ETF's then TAN is better than nothing if you want pure solar exposure. But I would never open such an IRA myself that doesn't allow trading in individual stocks, unless my company forced me to have one or had a 401k that only allowed to trade those instruments.

    My company actually had a 401k plan that only allowed me to buy mutual funds and I lobbied hard to give us an option for a self-directed brokerage account and it is the best move I ever made. My account is up triple digits YTD and not by a trivial amount. I am hoping to hit quadruple digits by the end of the year.

    You wrote:

    And this is where I disagree. I think that TAN is a riskier investment in solar than simply picking a couple of companies amongst SCTY, SPWR, CSIQ, JKS, JASO, TSL, etc.

    Solar imo is binary, i.e. either the stocks will have to go up a lot or they will have to go down a lot (I side with the former, but I think everyone knows that by now). So if you want to play the solar game then buy a panel manufacturer (including total solutions businesses, etc.), panel installer (scty), or a polysilicon producer. If you this and solar does take off then you will make it big and will be properly rewarded for the risk you took. Lets say that you make 200% by choosing CSIQ. If you had gone with TAN instead then you might make 50%.

    But if solar doesn't take off as I expect or new capacity gets built out that compresses margins, then CSIQ might lose 50%. In this scenario I am fairly certain that TAN will also lose 50% give or take, because all solar will go down and no diversification in TAN is going to help from minimizing losses.

    So what I am trying to say is that in my opinion TAN, because of its diversification, is actually a lot more risky of an investment than selecting a couple of individual (best of breed) solar companies. Or in other words is has the same downside risk but limited upside potential, i.e. a lot worse risk/reward trade-off.

    Where we disagree is that you say that TAN is less risky because of its diversification, whereas I think that TAN is actually (a lot) more risky because of its diversification.

    People ask for my opinion, so this is my honest opinion based on my experience of investing in TAN as well as my understanding of the solar industry. I know it sounds counter-intuitive, but that is how I feel.

    If you look at TAN, then it also lost 90% of its value from 2010 to 2012 just like any other solar company, so it did not provide any downside protection via diversification. Since it hit bottom it only recovered to a 200% gain and is still 70% below its 2010 price. While all of the panel makers have recovered more than 200% and I would say on average 800% and some are already reaching their 2010 price.

    Just my opinion and observations. I would stay away from TAN and instead invest in panel makers/power plant builders/total solutions providers, or panel installers (I don't really do this, because I am still not convinced in this sector), or poly makers (I don't do these either, but more from lack of selection but I do invest in SOL for this reason).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Appreciate the input and discussion :)

    I put about 25% of my TSLA into solar and so far it has outperformed Tesla, though it's just a couple months. What's probably going to kill that though is taxes. As it stands, I sold about 60% of my TSLA to finance TSLA LEAPS and solar, but the tax hit on that TSLA sale is probably going to crush any profits I make on the solar.

    I'm regretting it, I think. If I'd let TSLA ride and just traded solar on margin, the only tax hit would be on the solar profit. If I'd lost money and had to pay off margin, I could sell just enough to have the losses equal the gains on the sold TSLA and have no tax hit. Granted, I'd have paid some margin, but I think that would have been the lesser of evils.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes those are good points sleepy and thanks for sharing your honest opinion about them. I can understand your perspective given where Solar (industry has been). You're right, that's the focus of the opinion difference we have. I believe Solar has just (over the last year) graduated from the pure stock picker field to a viable industry with clear leaders (who may be different in the end, but are proving to be the leaders going to next step). In a trading scenario and comparing the 2, correct picking those individual stocks will outperform no question (I'm heavily in the first 4 of your list for example).

    Concurrently, I believe the industry at large has crossed a viability threshold of lock-in no turning back (the financial numbers now make it inevitable as Solar is now cheaper to deploy in Power Plant form than fossil). Those creates a stability we didn't have before allowing for an ETF to provide the downside protection in diversity if managed well (notice TAN holdings a heavily weighted to the very stocks you and I like).

    It's something of a close call I guess in timing - I would not have put $ into TAN 2 years ago and barely a year ago. But now I think the Solar roll is in and is a relative good (albeit careful) bet on the industry at large. So yeah, we disagree on that (not much else though)

    thanks for sharing those opinions -- and don't ever pull back from that. They are invaluable given the research, time and experience you've put in.
    cheers
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, Asia is doing good today. Good luck in the coming week guys.

    http://www.nbc29.com/story/23741399/heavy-smog-hits-north-china-city-flights-canceled Smog is so intence in China that flights get canceled.

    Austin's management team said the 63-year-old singer had been treated in hospital Friday morning for the asthma attack in combination with respiratory infection. She returned to her hotel later Friday to rest, but she was unable to physically perform at her concert scheduled for Beijing on Friday evening. Her Saturday night concert in Shanghai went ahead.
    Her manager, Barry Orms, said Monday that Austin, as an asthma sufferer, would have been "affected by the amount of pollution." He said that it wasn't their goal to place blame, and that "Patti has expressed our belief that the Chinese government can be a leader in this very important issue."
    On the morning ahead of her concert Friday, Beijing's air was visibly polluted, with the city's environmental monitoring center warning children, the elderly and those with respiratory illnesses to reduce outdoor activity.
    China's major cities have some of the world's worst smog. The government was long indifferent to the environment as it pursued economic development, but has begun launching some anti-pollution initiatives after mounting public frustration.
    Last month, China's Cabinet released an action plan that aims to make a small reduction in the country's heavy reliance on coal to below 65 percent of total energy usage by 2017. According to Chinese government statistics, coal consumption accounted for 68.4 percent of total energy use in 2011.

    There is no going back here.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-solar-supply-modules-saudi-120000322.html

    Canadian Solar to Supply Modules to Saudi Aramco's KAPSARC Solar Power Project.

    SCTY 5.60%, CSIQ 3.72%, RSOL 9.92%, FSLR 3.26% and most of the other up aout 2% premarket. Well Except JASO who wants to wait abit.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Some CSIQ news out of Saudi Arabia this morning...

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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    JASO is up almost 5% now. SOL is still sleeping so I added more of it.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow, solar is on fire today again. I have so many options that I want to hedge to raise capital to buy back more options during a correction but it seems like solar is just going up every single day. I know that this can't last forever and a pullback is inevitable, but at the same time I don't want to miss out on the 5%-20% days.

    I have only been investing for a little less than a decade and never invested in a stock or industry with so much upward pressure. Has anybody ever experienced a stock that has been going up every single day? Is this even possible?

    Anybody here with experience investing in the tech bubble days? Would those stocks go up every day or did they also have big 10% - 20% pullbacks in between?

    Any info would be greatly appreciated. Right now I feel like these stocks will continue going up every day. Normally this would not be possible, but some of these companies are still so undervalued that I don't want to miss out on a potentially huge day.

    For the shares that I own it is a no-brainer: buy and hold and never let go. Absolutely no reason to trade in and out of these positions to time the market. But with options, I am at a complete loss, I already have some big gains, but feel like the biggest gains are still yet to come.

    I guess it is a good problem to have, but at the same time I can lose all of my paper gains in a matter of days if not hours.

    So, my question is: Can stocks go up every day with only minor (5% or less) pullbacks in between, and how long can it last?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ths has been my dilemma for the last week... Ever since SCTY started blowing up.....every day I expect it to go down but it just keeps powering up.... At this point maybe the smartest thing to do is to wait for the trend to end before hedging the position? Don't catch a falling knife -> don't eject from a rocket taking off?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I would also add that there is a huge solar convention this week, it's earning season, and the entire market is setting new record highs. It could be a combination of all of these things that's causing these awesome daily ATH's
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes Zaxxon its great for CSIQ to get into that market, even tho their first deal wasnt that big

    I feel kind of spoiled here as I only started investing because of Tesla and Solar. My first stocks was Tesla, REC and SCTY.
    I guess I have been extremly lucky, and I know I can not expect this in the future in regards to other stocks.

    I will not sell these stock for ages tho, as I really feel there will be an electrical revolution the next years, and we are only in the beginning.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Heh, SOL has ended up being my largest solar component because it keeps sinking, so I keep adding a little more. If it doesn't turn around eventually, that's going to hurt.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SOL is a good one and I have been adding some as well. You will be rewarded eventually.

    Next year there might be a poly shortage which will benefit SOL immensely. SOL will go up sooner or later, it is just a matter of time. If they meet their Q3 guidance of ASP at $0.66 and flat costs, then their guidance of 7%-9% gross margin doesn't add up and GM will have to be a lot higher, above 10%, which will mean that they are profitable. This would be enough to beat analyst estimates and spark a huge rally.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ugh, seems I mixed something up with CSUN options and instead of January call had bought an Oct 19th call. Way I found out was seeing the shares on my account today ;) Then again CSUN went up 11% today (some pullback now) so not complaining ;)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Anyone besides me still holding STRI? Up 7.50% on high volume.
    Also some big buys on 17th October.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not stock itself, but I do have March 2.5 calls and am happy to see them ITM :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    yeah thoose were pretty cheap at the time. I am looking forward to listen to their conference call.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm thinking of hedging my SCTY medium term positions. I just checked the premiums for my JAN14 calls and I can set up better than risk free BCS with the 70$ options (for >7$ when I paid 7$ for the first leg) and slightly less covered with the 75$ option which still sells for almost 6$.

    SCTY at 80$ by january would be crazy in my mind.... but could we be entering such an irrational "bubble" scenario?

    The rational thing to do would still be to just hedge those shorter term options and leave the long terms options free to run to infinity and beyond. I need some of the cash anyway to prepare for the TSLA earnings.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    JASO up 6%..
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    On no news. I was accumulating JASO over the past two weeks when it was cheap, and that is why I was recommending this stock. It is still cheap at $11. Once it breaks out above $11.50, this thing might take off really quick.

    I have my position built up and now I am waiting for JASO to go up.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was accumulating JASO as well, its my #3 behind SPWR and CSIQ

    dont forget about my good friend TSL.
    It was at this point before the Government shut down beat it back down. I am looking for a break out above 17.50 and hopefully run to $20 by week's end.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    just sold my scty jan 14 calls with a strike of 50. i sold half of these a month ago for 80% loss...and now sold these for 70% gain. gotta say happy to be out down 10%. with most of my tesla options underwater as well, i am seriously considering moving back to just trading stock. i have long term belief in both these companies, yet just learning how right your timing has to be with options. (deep down though i like rolling dice, so probably will keep buying options).

    it really amazes me just how much scty has shot up, and while not based on any intrinsic number crunching, feel it will pull back a bit in the next few weeks.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    +1
    I have as much JASO as CSIQ now, great for all portofolios to be up 10-15% when Tesla is in the red.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    NFLX was a good buy during govt BS time.. after earnings today after market close it will prob pop nicely again
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    not how this relates to solar? :p

    - - - Updated - - -

    DING!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    JASO is a beast! 11.54 and 10% gain!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    JASO's has finally arrived! Call my MAR calls are in ITM now. Too bad I didn't sell TSLA in my 401k portfolio this morning and moved the money into JASO long. I also decided to apply remaining capital towards SOL instead of JASO. I guess I'll sit and wait for SOL's turn.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    People taking profits on JASO, when they should be buying more. That's ok, resistance won't hold for too long. It is only a matter or time...

    ...maybe today, maybe next week...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow solar seems to be down almost across the board on no news? CSIQ in the red, SPWR way off from daily highs, SCTY is in red...etc. Might be b/c of the overall market. Can't find another reason.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    the NASDAQ was tanking and drug everything with it.
    Might be Obama Speech that did it?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Tempted to buy, but TSLA being down is holding me back. There is supposed to be a jobs report tomorrow (the one that wasn't published due to the shutdown) and this could drag things down at least temporarily. This could be another reason for a slight sell off towards the end of the day?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    anyone find any news on why SPWR tanked? Or just a bunch of stop losses hitting.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Typical solar behavior. I was getting worried for a moment, but it looks like nothing has changed. Nothing to read into.

    Welcome to the world of investing in solar. It is still all controlled by momo traders and algo bots.

    This will inevitably change one day as the market learns more about solar fundamentals.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, but it's too bad a lot of solar turned south today. It was the only thing mitigating my TSLA losses this morning...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My lack of TSLA exposure and high JASO exposure allowed me to pretty much break even. CSUN also helped a little as well as some STRI.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well despite my feeling that solar is a better buy as a long term investment than TSLA, I did buy some more TSLA on the downturn. Never thought I would be able to grab a few more shares at $171, but I did. I may be crying about it tomorrow but I still believe in TM, Musk and the EV revolution. Revolutions are never clean and easy but this one is well worth it for our future and our children's future. OK, enough pontificating :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I really need to find out what STRI is all about, there are days with really small volume, but some weeks ago it rallyed with big volume, the same has happened the last week and today, and its up 17.5% since thursday.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Long term I like them both, but I think 2014 is the solar year. However I did buy some TSLA today aswell.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looks like the solar stocks are up in premarket again today. They always start the day exactly the same, i.e. up 2%-5% in the first minute, then correct down for the next 5 minutes, then go back up again, and then decide which way to go for the rest of the day. It is usually up, but then tail off at the end of the day (day traders taking profits).

    Norse and I started a new website. It is a work in progress, but I already have one article posted there, which explains why I have been accumulating JASO over the past two weeks; in large quantities (as a % of my portfolio) I might add. You can find the article here:

    http://thecontrarianinvestor.com/
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    i would urge that this board not be used to advertise websites. yes we should back statements with links but this just seems to be an advertisement for another site. this leads the way to spam posting to advertise other services. if allowed at least the board should get income for it
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If it's a non profit site then I don't see an issue. Right now all I get is a blank page, so...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    Are you serious? Some guys here spend endless hours working for the rest of the forum. If they in time made money off it, good for them. People are linking to all kind off **** on Seeking Alpha and all kind of lousy site, but when one of the biggest contributors wants to make a site he is not gonna be allowed?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree, I think Chickenlittle went overboard here, Sleepys comments and analysis have made tons of people loads of money here as have been Norse's insights into the Solar sector workings. If they want to have concise analysis on a separate website that they occasionally link to here and then discuss the analysis, then I see no problem from this. If they start to advertise daily that this is the greatest and best site and everyone should move there and pay them money, then I might take it cautiously, but I doubt that's the case here.

    I also don't remember Kevin99 getting pounded for the investnaire site where he had entries for his plays he made so why jump into sleepy's and Norse's throats now?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Even if we made money I do not see the problem. We are only trying to give people information about the emerging green markets.
    If the site went big and sleepy could quit his dayjob and instead work 100% in researcing for us that would be a good thing. We are also gonna link to TMC when we write about TSLA.

    btw site still blank?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    We are all very lucky that you guys are willing to share your research with us, whether its here or somewhere you link to. Good luck with the site. I will be reading.

    In a vain effort to keep on or around topic looks like we have taken a minor turn for the red. Anyone have any thoughts on RSOL? Had a huge jump last week following an earnings beat. Could they be solid in the future or just a ship being raised by the tide?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looks like there is a general risk-off trade in the markets and the solar stocks might be heading for a pullback. I am holding anyway to stay true to my buy and hold strategy. I am holding at least through earnings, but that is just me.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks for your input.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Whats causing the sell offs? I don't see any major market news.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think it's the jobs report
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Jobs report would of probably crashed the DOW too. Also the report came out this morning so we would of seen its effect at market open, not an hour after trading already began.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And technically the report wasn't negative, it was just neutral. We didn't decrease the overall unemployment percentage but there were more jobs last month.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The report was actually positive for the markets, because the jobs number came in below estimates. This means that tapering will be delayed and the party, i.e. bull market, will continue. You can tell by looking at the futures going up as soon as the report came out.

    It is a stupid market that we are dealing with but you have to understand this in order to make money in the stock market. If the jobs report came out great, i.e. 250k jobs created or more, than the markets would have probably tanked on taper expectations.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    CSUN went from 6-7% in the red to 10% in the green on high volume, i wonder whats going on.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Also didn't notice this before, but again CSUN has short sale restriction in place from Oct 22 to Oct 24th. Don't think it was there at start and if I read it right the restriction went into place ca 1.5h after market open.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Actually I don't either, I was just trying to be balanced since some people seem to object to promotion of for profit sites.
    For some reason it's blank for me in Firefox but not in Chrome.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks a lot for sharing that site. Have been looking forward to it!

    ps. It works for me on Safari
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks, will try to get it fixed. Btw I looked at options when CSUN was up 6-7% today, decided they were to expensive. Got some stocks tho :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I just opened a small put position in CSUN to test my gut feel. I can't go up crazy like this so fast. Isn't this the 2nd or 3rd time spike this week?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Amazing run by SPWR today. Nice to see it gain late in the day unlike its usual fall off in recent trading days.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I actually sold of some of my CSIQ options yesterday (a very small portion to raise capital) in order to buy some CSUN options (CSUN was actually up 10% yesterday when I was buying options, so that goes against my strategy of buying on dips). The options were up 50% earlier today, so probably up 75% by now. The sad thing is that I saw CSUN down 6% today and thinking, I should probably raise some more capital to buy more CSUN, but I never did because I got busy at work; and the stock turned around quickly.

    Note on CSUN - This is a highly speculative stock that I have done no research on at all. It will probably go to $0 and I don't recommend investing in it. If it doesn't go to $0 or back to $2, then it might go to $10 or $20. I figured it doesn't hurt to buy a few lottery tickets, but don't recommend putting any serious money into this stock before you do extensive research on it.

    Buy and hold wins again. No need to try to time the market with these stocks. In order to come out ahead, You would have had to sold at 09:42am EST, then bought back at 10:54am. So there is no way you will get that lucky timing the market on a consistent basis.

    Buy and hold is still the best way to play solar. Those looking for a pullback to get in, had their chance today. Like I wrote a few days ago, it looks like everybody wants solar and the pullbacks are intraday only and last for an hour. Have to be ready to pull the trigger.

    Sooner or later we might get a 2-3 day pullback or even 1-2 week pullback, but I don't see that happening before earnings season. And after earnings season it might be too late to get a great bargain.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Forgot to add that at one point today my options portfolio was down about 15%; at least that was my guess because I couldn't stand to look and never logged in to find out. After the turn around I might be up 15%; for a 30% turnaround in just a few short hours. This is my entire portfolio I am talking about and not just one position. How many people have that kind of risk tolerance? That's why I don't recommend following my strategies and don't like disclosing my positions.

    The positions I enter make sense for me, because I am able to execute my strategy. Most people on the other hand would be selling to cut their losses short, only to find out that it was a bad move just hours later.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I went short SCTY against a small long position via an excessive number of weekly 65 strike calls SCTY between friday and monday. As the price climbed up I kept on doubling down on that one strike, which worked well when there was a pullback but could have been a disaster. As for now, I could see the price popping back up to 65 in the next few days but I feel that's unlikely and I'm going to hold till thursday to get a little more time decay out of these short weekly contracts.

    In regard to your last question: I see that fluctuation of 10% or more on a weekly basis, i've got 110% of my margin used all the time. I do like your strategy, I entered Spwr after you suggested taking a look. Thanks for the advice.
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    I do *raising hand* :) Have had at least a couple of times where my entire portfolio was down 15-20%! Hurts really bad to see that but just gotta let things work themselves out (and hope they do!). And it doesn't help to keep checking it.

    Slowing getting some JASO shares and options. Tried to execute an option order to buy calls and was wondering why it wasn't executing... looked at the time and it just turned 1pm (PST)! Either I'm going to really be mad at myself tomorrow b/c JASO is going to shoot up (with my luck this will most likely happen) or will be happy to find a decent dip to buy.

    I've noticed that buying options with these stocks you have to kind of be aggressive and go for the ask price sometimes. Sucks b/c as soon as you buy you're already down 5-15%. But these things turn around pretty fast so just have to stick with it (this is why buying longer term helps).

    I know @sleepy and others have been buying a ton of different companies but personally I'm not going to try to catch every 20% rise (wow CSUN!) b/c I'll probably miss it and catch the downside. I'm just trying to stick to a few that I have the time to read about and do some research and can follow.
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    I think I saw my portfolio hit -20% soon after the shutdown crap and Model S fire occurred just a day or two after it had been +30%. Then when the recovery occurred I ran back to+30% in half a day only to see -10% again this week :) So I'm getting used to it and I know that Tesla exposure alone can move my stock 30% per 10 usd move on TSLA.... Bit as the fundamental parts are there I just keep cool and buy the dips. Though now I'm out of free cash after todays dips so now if I want to buy more I need to oiquidate some solar wins ;)
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    China smog emergency shuts city of 11 million people | GlobalPost

    I think someone posted this before. It seems like the smog situation has been affecting China in my metro cities. Does anyone know whether smog also affect in rural areas as well? I'm trying to understand how (and if) the problem affects existing and new solar power plants.
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    I have money in JASO, CSIQ, and SOL at the moment. Common for CSIQ and April/June '14 calls for the other two. CSIQ is paying off and I'm hoping the other two will follow suit soon.
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    This is the opposite of me. I am waiting for a slight recovery in TSLA so I can raise some cash for solar. I'm hoping to create a delayed bull spread, it's been a while waiting though.
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    I would not be conserned about that atm. I posted the same news earlier as a reason for building more solar :)
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    I bought 20 of the $36 CSIQ APR 14s at $1.00 using money at I was willing to kiss goodbye as it is a pretty small portion of my portfolio. My plan was to hopefully be able to sell enough of them the week of earnings to hopefully pay for the other ones and ride the ones left through earnings.

    Now these calls are already at $2.00 just 11 days later. I feel like I'm greedy if I stick to my original plan but it's a small portion and if I were to end up losing all of my current gains due to **insert bad event here** I wouldn't be that sad. I know others posted that they got some of these calls so just wanted to see if anyone else is in a similar (nice to have) dilemma.

    Oh and Sleepy, nice website :)
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    Hey I know it's been discussed here before but I am having trouble remembering off hand who SolarCity buys their panels from. I am about to look it up myself but figured I would probably get a faster response here. Let's start the clock to see who is first.
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    $1 for the April 36, come on now you overpaid :tongue: If you look at the all-time high and all-time low price for that option, the all-time low was set by me 14 days ago at $0.69 :biggrin: I am holding on to these until expiration.

    I had nothing to do with the website design, but I did come up with the name for it and was shocked to find out that the domain was available and nobody claimed it. Norse' friend Boris set up the website and Norse has contributed a little as well. It is a work in progress.

    Solar stocks finished really strong today, something is up. Maybe some big fund started buying them and algo's caught on and started buying as well. There was a monster rally from the bottom today. It's like the market mood did a complete 180 from "risk-off" on solar to "risk-on" big-time in a manner of minutes. I have no idea what caused it.

    My guess is that the word is getting out on solar and the big institutional funds are starting to buy into it. The great news is that these stocks are so cheap that if a big fund decided to put 1% of its funds in one of the solar companies, it would have to buy the whole company :)

    If institutions start buying solar, because Q3 might just show that solar is investible, then these stocks may go up a lot higher.
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    Yeah...I know I did! When I was buying I think bid was .80 and ask was $1.00. I was really trying to get $.90 but was afraid it was going to get away and wanted all 20 so I increased my bid to $1.00. Silly me! That .20 bid ask spread kills when the price is $.80-$1.00 but I'm not complaining. Glad to hear you're holding to expiration, I was guessing you would! I think I would be surprised if they don't end ITM. Assuming CSIQ keeps going up I might sell 5 of the 20 right before earnings and hold the rest until expiration.
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    Yea, pretty much the same here. I'm completely tapped out and not much reason to sell anything for about 3 weeks until after various earnings calls (most of my options are mid-Nov, Dec, and a couple Jan). I'd like to get rid of my margin use, but again, seems better to eat 3 weeks of interest and then pare down. I never really wanted to use margin at all, but I guess I got greedy when I could pick up new options for less than my previous ones.
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    Trina TSL
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    Geesh sleepy! After I read your article I was looking through the JASO OTM options and a lightbulb went off in my head. There is a small potential to get stupid rich here with playing 2014 OTM options without even betting the farm and a decent chance of making good money. There's also a decent chance to lose most if not all money spent on OTM calls but when you don't have to bet the farm who cares. Now I feel silly that I was thinking about selling any of my sparse 20 CSIQ contracts that I only paid $100 a pop for. I think I finally get why you aren't so much in TSLA anymore.

    I'm going to have to reallocate some more TSLA funds over for a few JASO March and/or June calls tomorrow if it's not too late. Worst case I already have a decent number of shares. Don't worry, I'm not going to bet the farm!
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    Don't feel bad, I always buy at full asking price. I try to get cheaper deal but it never happens anyway unless the stock goes down. I don't care if it goes down, because that is when I buy at full ask. When I think it is cheap I buy. I don't want to miss a huge run up by trying to scalp a nickel off the ask price.

    I was waiting a week for my funds to flow into my new account. And as soon as I got the funds (one day too late, because the day before was absolute bottom), and while all of the stocks were about 8% up that day, I loaded up on options at full ask price not to miss the next big move.

    This post actually made me happy; I am glad that I am not the only one who thinks this way. If you look at those JASO March calls you are going to buy compare the price you pay tomorrow to the all-time lows. You will probably find a few of my transactions there as well. :smile:

    - - - Updated - - -

    Solar City buys from many sources including TSL, YGE, and CSIQ that I know of. I am sure that there is at least a few others as well.
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    Jon and Sleepy: Decided to join the party and purchased my first options contract (or at least placed the buy order for tomorrow) for JASO. Small amount just to try my hand at it.
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    How far OTM are you looking? You could pick up Mar2014's 17s for around .75, but you'd need a ~70% runup in 5 months to break even. The 14s seem, I guess at a gut level, to have a better reward/risk ratio, but I don't have much to back that up.
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    I have an order in for the Mar2014's 14. even though I am brand new to this it did seem like a good risk/reward ratio
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    Remember to treat it as an all or nothing bet. If you put 1% of your portfolio in options, the most you can lose is 1%. It doesn't hurt to try 1% or less of your portfolio to learn how to play options.
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    In a similar boat as you @Jonathan. I have some CSIQ Jan $20 and $25 that are already doubled (bought them less than 3 weeks ago). I've increased my position in CSIQ and SPWR b/c they're my two best performing so far. No plans to hedge right now but at some point might create risk free bull call spreads and use that cash to buy more. So I'd say just hold tight and let it run :)

    Also, after reading @sleepy's JASO post I bought some shares and March $13 strike for $1.55. I too am aggressive and just end up buying at the ask since I don't think it's worth it to fight for a nickel. Tried to place an order for Dec $12 strike but market closed before I was able to complete the transaction! Hopefully I can get them tomorrow. I really think ATM and a bit longer term (couple of months) calls are the best value. Mainly b/c these stocks seem to continue to go up so I want to give it time to make it's run :) Thanks again @sleepy. But don't think I"ll put too much into JASO b/c I've been reading that their Q3 ER might not be that great. Still reading more.

    I actually sold some TSLA options at a slight loss b/c I think I'll be able to regain that loss faster in solar than TSLA.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Personally, I wouldn't go that far OTM. I know in theory the further out the strike the higher the risk/reward but in practice that hasn't always turned out to be true for me. It seems like the ATM or slightly OTM options perform the best for me for these stocks that have high IV. It just seems like the really far OTM calls are just too expensive. For example, why get March 17's for .75 when you can get March 13's for 1.5? What if it doesn't go up fast enough then those 17's will lose value pretty fast, especially as IV drops. Get the closer ATM options and just hedge them with bull call spreads as the stock goes up and repeat.

    Just my 2 cents.
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    Thanks. Yes..very small amount, less than 0.1%. Just want to watch price swings to get a feel for options. It is 'learner's permit' money.
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    My source there tells me that they use csiq, tsl, and yge.
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    Glad you agree to hold tight on CSIQ. I've decided that is what I'm going to do! As far as super OTM, what sleepy is trying to say here is that if it's 1% or less of your portfolio you may as well take the moonshot. The way I see it, JASO (and the other solars) are likely to keep on shooting up, doubling and tripling in value or more over the next year or so, OR we will see what happened last ER season (or worse) happen again the next few quarters. There were nice runups before the last ER season giving very nice gains only for them to mostly all go away. I had bought some slightly in the money front month options on CSIQ and SPWR. The SPWR ones expired worthless but I got lucky selling my CSIQ ones early so my gains on those canceled out my losses on the SPWR ones. So I can go way OTM and have a chance for thousands of percent profit or lose it all, or I can go slightly out of the money and have chance for hundreds of percent gain or lose it all. When running the mental math it seems the farthest out gives best risk reward when thinking of it that way. My gut was against this until I thought about it this way.

    There of course is the chance that the stock just mildly appreciates thus making the near the money or slightly OTM the best play. Or, if you do what you're doing by creating bull call spreads that takes out a lot of the "lose it all" factor but also takes a lot of the gain a ton factor, thus making it a lot less binary. Taking that approach is probably the best strategy to ensure some sort of nice gains with only a moderately higher risk than owning stock. For % allocations greater than 1% I think what you're doing is a great strategy and I should probably do that too for more of my cash but for now I'm going to let stock be the main portion of my solar portfolio as I don't have enough time to keep up with this many solar companies and TSLA.

    I'm glad we can have these types of discussions, it really helps me out!
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    Alright all of this talk about JASO has made me realize I dont wanna miss out on this, even though i do not really know anything about the company... Im going to take all of my profits from SCTY these last couple of weeks (leaving the original investment intact so I consider it "risk free") and put into JASO stock (dont have access to options). Dont worry sleepy im just a recent college grad so im only talking about 1000 bucks or so, even though thats quite alot of money for me it is money I can live without and that I dont consider "real", its supposed to stay on my trading account for decades to come! Thank you for the great research and everyone elses comments and thoughts!
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    I like your reason for buying deep OTM options. I think of options in solar stocks the same way. They will either go up a lot or go down a lot, and there is only a small probability that they go up gradually in slow but controlled manner. I don't buy options to play small probabilities.

    JASO might go up quickly as I am hoping for or it might take a while. They are sitting with a lot of excess capacity (at least they were), so that is why Wall St. is not giving them any love.

    I am a contrarian investor and see this as an opportunity. As solar demand continues picking up, supply will start getting exhausted. Sooner or later JASO is going to run at full capacity, and the market will price this in a lot quicker than you expect. Therefore, it is good to be in early on JASO. There is really no reason to read their financials. You are betting on my scenario to come true.

    They also make high quality panels and have a lot more of the high efficiency mono-crystalline instead of less efficient multi-crystalline.

    I think it is only a matter of time before JASO goes up. If for some reason they have a bad ER as justdoit said he has been reading (Can you please explain what you meant by this?), and the stock goes down, I will be buying a lot more JASO.
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    JASO and CSIQ are going against the pre-market and is both up 1%. I like the volume, especially for JASO.
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    Thank you for this!

    When can we start expecting Q3 earnings from these companies? im getting anxious and tired of waiting haha... exciting stuff
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    Solar down across the board. Bought a little JASO just in case. I wonder if we'll se the usual solar rebound as the day progresses.
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    Nomura target to $42from $25. Thats for CSIQ.

    Didnt they just raise it to 25$?
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    just bought some more SOL on weakness.
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    I did that aswell, tho Im not holding a big position there at all, really not sure about their poly business.
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    As much as my portfolio is hating me today. (maybe largest single day hit) this pull back of roughly 4% across all my solars will pose as a nice footing to start the next run. TSL, JASO, SOL and a few others have been floating around this level for a while. Good spot to make a run from.
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    Just one stock in the green today, go CSIQ :). Hell, it's almost the only thing green in my portfolio period at this point besides the TSLA I bought 2 years ago.
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    I am right there with you. Except had my TSLA for only about 8 months.
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    I must admit I'm puzzled why solar is down across the board, sometimes heavily like JKS. I've gotten into the habit of scanning for news at night on each of them and it seemed decent, nothing to indicate something like JKS would be taking a heavier hit than the market in general.
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    Just the standard swings with solar. Market is green tomorrow. Solars will all be back up 4-5%. its just how it works.
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    Its because of Asia, some big banks have got issues with bad loans, so people are scared this might make the goverment become more strict on loans. This will not have any effect on Solar, atleast not the US listed at all.
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    This makes a lot of sense, thanks for clarifying @Jonathan. What was also keeping me out of the JASO deep OTM calls was that there is little volume and they're expensive so it is hard to get a "good" deal. Dec OTM calls ask didn't really move at all today even with the stock moving a couple percent. Decided to go ahead and bite the bullet a buy a little (which sucks b/c they're in the red as soon as you buy b/c the bid/ask spread is pretty large). Got some Dec and Jan OTM calls with a little money I'm willing to lose. Not sure if I'll slowly accumulate more or if I'll just sit tight.

    What did you end up doing?
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    I have some ATM Jan '14 and Jun '14 calls for CSIQ and JASO respectively.. I really don't like investing in JASO though, a 90M mkt cap is wayyy too small and the stock can have really wild swings making buying options the same as just throwing away money.
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    CSUN's IV is super high. Are they set to announce earnings tomorrow or something? I can't seem to find an official confirmation on that.
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    according to Yahoo, yes.
    I dont have CSUN, but anyone else on top of them? Would be nice for Solar earnings season to start off with a positive.
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    I'm guessing you're not driving the Model S yet then ;)
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    I got mostly the March 17s but also some June 18s. I way overpaid. I was busy at work this morning so wasn't going to be at the computer at market open so I put in a buy order premarket. I saw that it was up a bit premarket so I put in a pretty high limit because I didn't want to "miss out." When I went to check the market later I saw that JASO did not go up but in fact went way down. Sucks, but long term if the binary event occurs in my favor it won't matter what price I paid for them. I thought about buying more to average down but I think I am already at my max for "super high risk" options. I should've done what I did but with half of what I wanted, that way if I was wrong I could've bought the other half at much cheaper. That "mistake" combined with TSLA being awesome I didn't have a fun day. I'm actually surprised I don't care too much, everything should rebound at some point, if not tomorrow.

    At least CSIQ was a saving grace today. My CSIQ stock+LEAPS+April $36s shined like a bright star in a world of darkness. Thank you CSIQ.
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    Sounds exactly like my day haha.
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    @Jonathan, never ever do market orders. :smile: If I know I'm going to be busy, I always just do limit orders with previous day's bid price just to be safe. By the way, how much did you end up paying? I got a few of the same contracts for 0.60 and 0.65 I think.
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    It was a limit order but I put in a higher amount than I should have. I got what I put the order in for, .80 for the march ones and 1.10 for the Junes.
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    I also got into the game with some June '14 $13 @ 1.8... :)
    Also have CISQ Jan '14 $25 @ $2.50 (I wish I had bought some more of those, the 50% profit looks much better than the 60%+ losses I have in TSLA options right now... had bought Nov '13 $190s @$15)
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    One of my 'test the water' options bought earlier this month was that same CISQ Jan '14 $25 @ $1.72. Looking good so far at around a 100% gain. My plan was/is to hold through (or at least until) November earnings. Any thoughts from you more experienced folk on this? I know that I should expect the decay to accelerate in the last 60 days or so which is what led me to the current plan, but I'd be very interested to hear thoughts from others.
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    I've heard this advice before, but I've lost out on a few trades because I set limit orders @ the current price and the market moved just enough that they didn't execute. Also, some of the sites complain if you set limit orders below/within the market price.
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    Haha. Yea, not a great day here either. I also grabbed some of those March 17's. Talking about overpaying, decided to put a little in Dec 18's just to see what happens :) Definitely overpaid for those but we'll see what happens. Will be keeping a close eye on JASO.
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    I am relatively new to these forums (been lurking for a little while) and also relatively new to investing in solar (aside from a little trading on SCTY). I have been following the recent discussions on several of the companies like JASO, CSIQ, SOL. Before dipping my toe in a bit more with some stocks and calls, how much are these companies affected by the performance of some of the other bigger solar companies?

    For instance, I have heard FSLR is a bell weather company for solar and they have their ER on Oct 31st. More than just making moves based on their individual ERs, what are the other stocks we should be watching? If FSLR doesn't have a strong report, and if they take a hit, is that likely going to smack down a few of these others I mentioned? Thanks.
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    It's all about volume, and relative volume. If the stock is thinly traded (and almost all options count as thinly traded) a market order can be a total disaster. Even a highly traded stock can be moved by a moderately big order. But at volumes of about 10m/day (where TSLA is at) buying/selling up to about 10,000 shares probably won't move it enough to worry about, and a market order is probably OK.
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