Thứ Hai, 31 tháng 10, 2016

Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA) part 2

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Why would you not just charge in centralia for 5 or 10 minutes if you were round tripping from Seattle to Portland?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    A rising tide lifts all ships.

    Getting others to take up the EV banner will only help Tesla for a very long time.

    Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk 4
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    May not be enough for my Portland travel. Anyway, that is an example.

    Essentially you go to a particular destination and want a quick charge in the city before heading out. May be they can install a supercharger close to the city instead of in the city. But, competition can install dozens of chargers in the city (as well as in between).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    But there is a supercharger midday from Seattle to Vancouver BC. Ditto for Portland. Pausing 20 minutes each time through Centralia and Burlington should solve your problem. What am I missing?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I might want to hit a number of spots in Portland or Vancouver (or San Francisco or LA). So, charging at the nearest charger on the freeway might not be enough (or convenient enough).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Oh no, i do know Infinity. But some people (analysts, and sometimes even here on these forums) talk about the Leaf being a competitor and abot how more advanced it will be by the time Gen3 is out. Now when (not if) Nissan put that technology into an Infinity, that will be real comeptition, I agree. But not as a Nissan, as that brand has different customers. That's all I'm saying.

    BTW, while Infinity is sold in Europe as well, I think a Tesla Model S will much sooner become an alternative to the German premium brands in the eye of the welathy consumers. The green aspect, the cool touchscreen interface, the whole coolness factor associated with the brand will really sell it. I think when it comes to premium brands (of any industry), perception, "being seen in it" is equally as important as the actual quality and specs. What brand you choose tells the wo0lrd who you are, I guess.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I think you made a really good list there, there is just 1 thing I'm missing: chargers.

    With a 100k car you can get away with limtied public charging. Just my 2 cents, but i think those who buy a 100k car usually have a garage they can charge in, plus they may have more than 1 car so if they need to take a trip outside the current Supercharger network, they can drive something else. But for people buying a 35k car, that might be their only vehicle, and most of them may not have a garage. Especially in Europe, some may live in a city and park on the street.

    Building out the Supercharger network world wide (at least their main markets) may be the most important part of the preparation for Gen3. E.g. there is currently no Supercharger built or planned in the Czech Republic, Slovakia or Hungary. Do you know how many Germans, Austrians and even Dutch do business in our region? It is not unlikely for them to drive here on a regular basys. So even if sales of premium brands is less then in Western Europe, for their main markets it may be of high importance to quickly charge their cars over here for the return trip, or to travel further to their factories in the countriside in these countries.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm not sure Tesla could build out a supercharger network that can realistically cover the volume of cars that Gen3 could represent. We are already seeing bottle necks at some superchargers with 15K Models S's, what happens when there are 150K+ Gen3's plus a few more years of S and X production. There will need to be other fast charge options built out by someone other than Tesla. Supercharging may be free for life but Tesla doesn't guarantee that you won't have to wait a long time to use it, and it might be worth your time to seek other charging at other locations, even if you have to pay for it.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Exactly.

    SC is free as far as $$$ are involved.

    the cost will be time spent

    a) waiting for a charge spot to become available
    b) charging time

    TESLA is adressing b) by faster chargers; this potentially reduces waiting time as well

    Battery swap if time is precious.

    i'm not sure if SC is for GenIII, and if so will it be free?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It may be a more expensive option for the Gen3, since the "free" charging is actually paid for upfront in the purchase price of the 85, and is an extra $2-$2.5K option in the 60. Might be a $3-$4K option in the G3, which would somewhat lower demand and pay for extra chargers. Personally I'd be fine with a pay per use supercharger model for the G3 since I'd rarely use it but would like the option occasionally.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree that continuing to expand public charging options is important, but more and more of these are becoming available now and that will continue to grow over the 3 years until Gen III deliveries begin. I don't agree that most people buying a 35K car won't have a garage to charge overnight. There are scads of people in small towns and suburbs and even cities who have garages. Even if Tesla has a good competitor in 3 years in that 35K price point, they and the competitor won't be able to produce enough EVs to meet the demand which will be in the millions, even if folks without garages have few local charging options.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think this sort of mental calculus is a real barrier to MS style EV adoption, but that barrier is phisically overcome by the supercharger network as currently designed. The psychological barrier, however, will take some longer period to overcome. probably once folks like EVNow see a handful of colleagues or friends using the infrastructure successfully they'll be more willing to internalize the value proposition.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think he was talking from the european perspective. For the US market I agree with you.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    LOL. We haven't used anything other than Leaf for over 2 years. Your comment just shows lack of appreciation of various scenarios.

    I suggest you read threads here where people are complaining about lack of destination chargers.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You are right, I was pointing out the lack of charging infrastructure in Europe, and especially Central and Eastern Europe. I also noted, that even if you consider Western Europe as the current target for Tesla, you have to remember how closly the EU economy is integrated and that there is significant business travel between Western and Eastern Europe, which often involves driving as planes only get you as far as the capital of the smaller countries. (Just trying to add some perspective... I always smile when a US company talks abou doing business in "Europe". What they usually mean is delivering to the UK, Germany, France, and maybe the richer Benelux or Northern states. Of course, the EU alone has 28 countries, with over 500 million people...).

    Nevertheless I still think, that for Gen3 we would need many more chargers in the US as well and in cities too. I was watching a "What if..." documentary on Nat Geo the other day about oil disappearing form Earth by tomorrow morning. In that they said abou 50% of the US population lives un the suburbs. So turning that upside down, would you want to exclude the other 50% (in the cities) from Tesla's potential market? Even if you assume, Tesla's Gen3 customers will be the middle class who are more likely to live in the suburbs, that's excluding a lot of people. And even if, as some of you corretly pointed out, Tesla alone could never replace all car manufacturers, you still probably don't want to limit the company's reach to home owners only. (Enter Europe, where living in an apartment and parking on the street is even more common.)

    Now, in the same documentary, they also said the US alone has more than 100k petrol stations. Even if we agree that EVs would never need that many as some do charge at home, Tesla could never build a full replacement network on their own. That's why (in another thread) I was arguing for Tesla partnering up with someone or more "someones", large retail or fast food chains. Now they may only provide the IP, blueprints for the SCs, not actual money, but they have to be on top of this. We can't really expect Exxon or Shell knocking on Elon's door, begging him to allow installing SCs on their existing petrol stations, can we?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I find the hardest things about technology is understanding what are linear vs non linear effects and understanding the compounding effect of networks. When I consider gen 3, I don't worry to much about launch - not the likely $45k+ price, the guesstimate of 200 mile range or the charging infrastructure in the us or eu in 2017/2018.

    What interests me much, much, much more is the effective price, range and infrastructure in 2023/2024. I think tesla has demonstrated that they know how ride this curve - remember the model S was supposed to do this for 50k, but the lack of complaints is indicative of their success regardless of hitting the bullseye right away. My bet is long pure EV.

    Think back 20 years ago. No Internet (hey I had email in '89, so no semantics on web vs Internet please), mobile computing basically non existent (I also had the early compaq "portable" computer to use in 88/89), no widespread use of advanced materials, almost zero recombinant protein therapeutics, no patient level DNA diagnostics... Get the picture?

    this is as much of a bet on management teams around a major disruption as anything else.

    Who do you think will win? Who is thinking ahead? Who understands this the best? Who can move past their own sacred cows? Who is subject to internal inertia?

    Who gets the best talent? Where does that talent have the biggest impact? If you were/ are a hotshot battery or automotive engineer that REALLY believed in EV where would you want to work.?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    exactly.

    i think hotel charging is nearly as important as supercharger rollout. But intra-day charging at destinations, not so much.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This +1000!

    Very few people understand that Tesla is ahead of the game now and with JB and Elon at the helm they will still be ahead of the game 10 years from now because TM is attracting the best talent in the technology and car business.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
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    guest
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    guest
    Hotels aren't useful for day trips. Superchargers close to cities might work - but we would want chargers in the city eventually. Competition will have that.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I need zero charging infrastructure for day trips. If I'm taking a day trip I don't like to spend the whole day driving, and the Model S has more than enough range for anywhere I'd want to go for a day trip.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I saw someone suggested Tesla can strike again to raise a new round of capital. Not a bad idea considering it could allow them to scale up the production more rapidly than previously planned, not to mention the possibility of building a battery plant. These are fairly new developments that were not in the picture when Elon said no plan for additional funding.

    CitizenT, like to do another speculation on that? I enjoyed your thriller last time. :smile:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't see any good reason to do a capital raise right now. Money isn't a limiting factor, so throwing more money at their problems won't do any good. They need to keep their heads down and focused on executing right now. They already have a huge task at hand. I am very wary of companies that try to grow too fast (see Starbucks). It often doesn't end well.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    +100
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    guest
    +200
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    guest
    Though I agree, I still like to be surprised!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    +300
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think it totally depends on their progress on battery cell production. As we deduced in the battery thread (and later confirmed by Elon), they have a huge challenge with production ramp-up, as they are on their way to consume the entire global production of 18650 cells. If they have to make an acquisition, build a battery fab or contribute to financing someone else's plant, they might need a good chunk of extra cash.

    If I were Elon and saw a 50/50 probability of needing, say, $500m for this purpose, I would raise it now. The financial market may close next week and make it impossible to raise anything for the next 1-3 years, and in any case this is a very good valuation to raise money on.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Then again if, as reported, Panasonic is investing 200 million into reopening closed lines, Samsung SDI and BYD are coming in as suppliers, they don't need to invest themselves. I look at the basic cell they buy as any other raw material. They don't build a foundry to produce aluminium rolls either or start their on fabric production line for carpets.

    Having said that, their own internal wizard department turning those cells into these state of the art battery packs will need to be expanded, much like the rest of the production lines.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Tesla would be very foolish to dismiss this issue in such a cavalier way. Luckily they are not.

    I think a key strategic skill is to recognize what is commodity and what is strategic sourcing. Aluminum is clearly a commodity - you order a certain amount and pay the going rate. Tesla can grow 100-fold without making a huge dent in the global supply.

    On the other hand, battery cells are not a commodity for Tesla. On the one hand, you are right that, ideally, Tesla should not invest in capacity. On the other hand, the cell suppliers are almost certain to under-invest in capacity in the current scenario. If they build as much capacity as Tesla needs to grow according to the most optimistic projections, they are almost certain to be stuck with excess capacity. They are much more likely to invest just enough to meet conservative demand scenarios. Which means that Tesla's growth rate gets restricted to those scenarios.

    "But", you may object, "the recent announcements are proof that this is not a problem!". However, I am not sure $200 million will buy anywhere near the capacity that is needed - that is more likely to be in the billions (again, ref the battery thread).

    I think Tesla will need to be closely involved in building the capacity they need for fast growth. This may take many forms - they can guarantee volumes, they can buy options on production capacity, they can provide loans or equity, and so forth. Elon said that a giga-factory needs to be built, and when asked said that they would consider building it themselves if suppliers didn't.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The combination of those two beliefs will likely form the investment thesis for many TSLA investors over the next few years.

    I'm thinking that the main investment thesis for TSLA investors in the next few years will likely be centered around these two main train of thoughts:
    1. Belief that majority of new cars sold will be electric by 2030.
    2. Belief that Model E (Gen III) will outperform its competitors (ie., BMW 3 series, Audi A4, Lexus IS, etc) and eventually outsell them.
    (as #2 is fulfilled, people will start envisioning how Tesla can conquer the Camry market)

    #1 focuses on the huge disruption coming to the ICE vehicle market. While #2 focuses on Tesla's ability to design and execute a mind-blowing car at the $35k price point.

    For #2, when I test first test drove the Model S in late 2012, I immediately thought "Tesla just needs to shrink the Model S and make it cheaper, and they'll rule the auto world." That's the dream/vision of the Model E (Gen III) vehicle, and it's a very powerful vision especially since Tesla has already delivered a stellar Model S vehicle that outperforms its competitors.

    For #1, I think it's helpful to use the tech adoption curve to see where we might be in the bigger picture. Elon mentioned he's made a bet with someone that the majority of new cars sold by 2030 will be electric. So, I'm using that to signal the 50% transition point (from early majority to late majority). From that I'm tracking backward to estimate 2022 as the beginning of the early majority (34% of total), and then tracking back to 2017 as the beginning of the early adopters (13.5%). Many of us think we might be further along than the "innovators" phase since Tesla's been around for a while with the Roadster and the Model S is the second generation vehicle. But we're still talking about miniscule numbers compared to the total # of vehicles sold every year (ie., 35mm+ vehicles sold in just China and U.S.). So, we're well within the first 2.5% of the eventual EV market (which should be as large as the current new ICE car market eventually).

    The biggest challenges IMO will be scaling production for Gen III (ie., 2017-2022) and also NOT underestimating demand for the 2022-2029 period, which should be off the charts (2022-2029 Gen III demand could be an order of magnitude greater than 2017-2022 demand). The pace of adoption of EVs will be so fast (ie., growth trajectory) in the 2022-2029 period that I don't think there's really any way Tesla can meet all the demand (even Tesla producing 5mm+ vehicles/yr wouldn't be enough). They'll need other auto manufacturers to make compelling EVs as well.

    By 2029, if 50% of new car and commercial vehicles sold in the world are electric, then that would be approximately 65 million EVs per year (world car and commercial vehicles grew 54% from 1997 (54 million) to 2012 (84 million). If we assume another 54% growth from 2012 to 2029, then we'll have 130 million new cars & commercial vehicles sold in 2029. Automotive industry - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia).

    ps., I shared these thoughts a few weeks ago in the short-term thread but though I'd expand them here on the long-term fundamental thread.

    diffusion3.png
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If TSLA can produce the same WOW among GenIII customers as they do with MS customers, then these projections are likely too conservative. Ray Kurzweil speaks about how linear progress doesn't apply to tech-driven innovations, which tend to be more exponential. The more an innovator innovates, the more they can innovate on top of their innovations. If TSLA can crack the production nut, Elon will beat his 2030 target by 5-10 years. Here's Kurweil speaking about the law of accelerating returns:
    Ray Kurzweil: The Law of Accelerating Returns - YouTube
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ray's law is for information technologies (auto manufacturing isn't there yet and neither are batteries), and speaks to price/performance improvement per unit time, not adoption.

    Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk 4
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Having worked for an auto major for 5 years (Cadillac Programs) I see how different Tesla is, both in terms of what the car is made of and how it is made. However I know very little about the battery manufacturing process so can't comment on that specifically. The shear amount of complex hardware that is in a typical car is not there in a Tesla. I believe Elon is right in calling it a semi-tech company and I think it's future growth will track closer (although not exactly) to a tech company rather than a traditional auto manufacturer.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks DaveT for the great thoughts.

    I was looking up a little more information about the Technology Adoption curve and it mentions that adoption over time fits a normal distribution. So if 2030 is the mean, or start of "Late Majority", then the start of "Early Majority" will be one standard deviation out and the start of "Early Adopters" will be 2 standard deviations out. How many years are you using as the standard deviation? I got a little confused with your model using 2022 and 2017 because those time frames don't follow a standard deviation.

    If we assume 16% of new vehicles sold will be EV at the start of the "Early Majority" phase (2.5% innovators + 13.5% early adopters) we will be looking at a figure of roughly 14 million vehicles. 14 million EV cars will translate into a whole lot of batteries; assuming 18650 format at ~5250 cells per car (~ 75% of MS) that would be on the order of more than 70 billion cells. The question to ask then is what is the pathway to building this kind of infrastructure? What is current worldwide battery capacity at? When there is a clear pathway to building that kind of infrastructure it might be easier to estimate where we are on the adoption curve.

    I do not doubt Elon that we can reach 50% by 2030, but the battery piece of the equation has been keeping me up at night.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Originally, I was just working backward from a 2029 target where 50% of new vehicles sold would be electric. Someone earlier had mentioned that we're currently in the Early Adopter phase of the tech adoption curve, but when I looked at it it seemed like we're still in the Innovator phase.

    If we used 6 years as a standard deviation, then Early Majority could start in 2023 (Early Adopter starts in 2017 and Late Majority in 2029). However, as you point out 16% of new vehicles sold would need to be electric in 2023 for that to happen. And the major constraint seems to be battery production. Another scenario is we could push out the 50% mark to 2030 and still use a 6 year standard deviation. Early Majority would start in 2024 and Early Adopter would start in 2018. Innovator would start at 2012 (0.1% of 84m vehicles is 84,000 EV/year. Estimates have it at 53k EVs actually sold in 2012) and pre-Innovator would start in 2006.

    Even reaching 2.5% of new vehicles sales (ie., 2.5% of 84 million new vehicles sold in 2012 would be 2.1 million EVs per year) by 2018 would be very challenging with current global battery production constraints (unless some major investment in new factories happened very soon).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Can we invest in any of these battery companies? I looked for Panasonic but couldn't find it on the US market. Are any of the others?
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    guest
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    guest
    Panasonic to build new $366 million lithium-ion plant in China : zero emission motoring
    Panasonic Inaugurates New Lithium-ion Battery Plant in China to Respond to Global Demand | Headquarters News | Panasonic Global

    Yes, it was built on an existing site, but it took them 15 months to go from announcement to starting production. I think that suggests it shouldn't be that big a deal to ramp up production. The cell factories are automated so expansion should be a logistical issue rather than a major problem.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That may be true, but that doesn't make it an information technology. Tesla may grow like a tech company more than an auto company, but you can't use last year's cars to build better cars this year, so I don't see the exponential improvement in price/performance like you get with the tech that Ray talks about.

    All the technology that Ray talks about follows this pattern. Faster computers are used to solve complicated problems that allow the next generation of computers to get faster. 3d printers can print 60% of the parts for a new 3d printer. Nano tools can be used to build the next generation of nano tools. I just don't see this characteristic in auto manufacturing, Tesla or otherwise.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    One area where this frame of reference fits with Model S is its ability to improve via software updates, thereby iterating at a much faster pace than traditional auto platforms.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Again, that's true, but doesn't get you a compounding effect.

    Look I totally agree that Tesla has a lot of tech company DNA and therefore it should be able to grow much faster and in a more lean way than traditional auto-makers. I'm totally on board with that. I'm just saying that invoking The Law of Accelerating Returns is taking it a little too far.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's possible that better and faster computer modeling may lead to faster improvements in battery chemistry, so Tesla might benefit somewhat from the effect.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Lots of universities are already doing that - and from many years.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ah sorry, you are correct. I believe Tesla has attributes of tech company in it's ability to iterate quickly through more software and less hardware in their product, and in the culture of the company's leadership and employees. In terms of accelerating return a la kurzweil, i guess we are probably on that path for auto-makers due to CAD and eventually 3D-printing for R&D and eventually manufacturing as well. but I admittedly have a hard time applying Kurzweil to the question, I'm not even sure what we'd want to see as evidence of accelerating returns in auto manufacturing. certainly not cars that are 1000x faster and 1000x smaller for the same constant-$ cost, LOL.

    To bring this back to investing question, I think the comparison to tech vs industrial co is relevant not in the degree Tesla products follow the Law of Accelerating return, but in the degree that tesla can drive much more rapid development, the degree that software and software-enabled R&D (read: cheaper) overshadows (more expensive) hard-asset CapX investment, and as a result, the ability to produce very high margins and high ROIC once development is complete and products can be produced and sold. These are the attributes that I believe lead to a growing tech firms seemingly unjustifiable valuations that turn out in retrospect to be much more reasonable than they seemed at time=0.

    cheers.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Will Tesla Alone Double Global Demand For Its Battery Cells? (Page 3)

    I'd waved off some earlier statements about Tesla creating a battery plant as outside their core mission, but after a rumor mentioned in the short term forum about another offering and reading this article about how Tesla alone is going to swamp the current worldwide 18650 production, I have to wonder if it would be in Tesla's interest to grab a billion or two and create it's own battery plant. Perhaps in partnership with Panasonic or some such so Tesla isn't reinventing the necessary research.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Today there was an article in the WSJ: Tesla's Fair Market Value: $67.12, NYU Prof Says - MoneyBeat - WSJ

    The NYU professor states: "I am assuming that the technological and innovative component that sets Tesla apart will allow it to deliver a pre-tax operating margin of 12.50% in steady state, putting it in the 95th percentile of auto companies (and closer to the margin for technology companies).�

    Elon has stated a goal a gross margin of 25% without ZEV credits if I recall correctly. That is double what this author states. What am I missing?
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Elon's number only applies to Model S, as far as I know. There's been no guidance for Gen III that I know of, so people can guess whatever they want, haha.
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    guest
    There is a difference in operating margin and gross margin. That is where the difference comes from. A 12.5% operating margin is still pretty generous for a 25% gross margin.
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    guest
    I noticed that the analyst compared Tesla to Porsche and other traditional car companies. Tesla is operating like a manufacturer and direct retailer of cars while the author compares Tesla to other auto manufacturers that are more like wholesale manufacturers. I didn't see that addressed in the comparison.
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    Looks and sounds interesting. Is it possible to get an English translation somehow?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Do you have a translate button? I have Chrome as my browser and a button pops up on the top that asks me if I want to translate the article. It is still not a great translation but you get the gist of it.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm bored, I'll translate it for you. Stand by.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Here's the country's first electric super-cab

    -Saves NOK 100,000/year in fuel, road toll and parking fees

    This morning, driver and owner Trond S�mme could proudly offer his customers rides in Tesla's first electric super-car.

    A number of celebrities have bought the car - among others, Norwegian crown prince Haakon, the Danish crown prince and the Right party's Nikolai Astrup. Now the celebrated car has also become a cab.

    Electric joy

    "I've only had good feedback from the customers yet. Finally I've got a full-blooded electric car, where I don't have to be scared that I won't have any power left", says cab owner Trond Gustav S�mme.

    Was laughed at

    He has been a pioneer in electric cars.

    "I've driven the Leaf for a long time. My colleagues have been laughing for a year, but now more of them are switching to the Leaf. It's an excellent cab. But this one has much better battery capacity", he says as he pets his Tesla:

    "It has a battery capacity of 50 [metric] miles, but for city driving the capacity is 40 [metric] miles. In one shift we drive around 25 on average, so this is more than enough for a day. The Leaf doesn't have the same capacity."

    Saves 100,000 a year

    To get one of the first Tesla Model S delivered, he had to order the biggest model, with the greatest battery capacity.

    "It cost NOK 707,000. But the math looks great: Compared with a diesel car, I now have 100,000 less in annual expenses for diesel, toll roads and parking."

    He hasn't even finished these words before parking enforcer Ijaz A. Khusi comes over and threatens with a parking ticket, because we are illegally parked. But when he sees it's a Tesla, he laughs and says: "It's okay. You're good for now". Laughing, he reveals that he himself has also ordered one.

    Customers can order the electric cab

    S�mme says the the price per ride is the same as all the other cabs from Oslo Taxy.

    "And if people want to have a ride, they can simply order the Tesla when they call. I'll be there. Or they can call me directly", he says.

    Since the electric car doesn't have an engine, there is lots of space for luggage under the hood. And the Tesla is a 7-seater, with two child seats in the back.

    "Do you think you'll be equally happy in winter, in -20 (celcius, ~ -4F) degrees?"

    "In that regard, I'm a test pilot. The important thing is that the logistics work out. If there are going to be many cabs like this in Oslo, Tesla has to set up a charging hub in the city.

    Happy customer

    He says he's considering to buy a charger/converter for NOK 20,000 to keep in his garage.

    "The city probably supports this and covers half the expense", he says.

    "It looks good. It's great to have the option of being driven around in an electric car like this when you need a cab", customer Hans Petter Dramstad says before he gets in the back.

    In Oslo taxi, people are happy about S�mme's purchase.

    "It looks like a fully capable alternative to fossil fuels. I have great belief in it as a future cab".
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    guest
    Battery capacity of 50 metric miles?
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    guest
    MarvinatOrz, thanks for taking the time translate. If you are still bored perhaps you can tackle some of the comments of the article (or even approx. response of either pro or con Tesla). Most interesting in the article is that the Model S is purchased by Princes and Cab Drivers and Parking Enforcers alike. This debunks the myth the Model S is only for the 1%ers. People that would not normally purchase such an expensive car are finding ways to justify the expense (i.e saving gas, oil and maintenance charges, saving time in Green HOV lanes, saving the environment, cool factor, etc.).
    We seem to be stuck in the $160 - $170/sp for now until another major positive catalyst drives higher. Events would include next quarterly meeting and final design of the Model X (should be by February 2014 to make it to the major auto shows and allow production for the Fall '14. Avoid the daily noise. Steady stays the course. Enjoy the ride into our future. Best.
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    What's a metric mile? Is that like 5 miles?
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    Much of the media discussion is about wether to see Tesla as a auto company or a tech company. Implying that the rest would be "momentum" and/or hype by Tesla fans.

    However, Tesla's primary objective is to provide one of the key elements to the transition to sustainable energy. (I'm not talking about evaluating TSLA as an energy company, though.) I'm not sure how to quantify Tesla's value in this regard, however I do think that TSLA current share price reflects this value to a certain degree. Obviously, a number of people would not be willing to acknowledge such a value, still that doesn't change the fact that many people do. Probably more than enough to buy all the shares.

    Furthermore such evaluations also tend to ignore that Tesla has built a car (its first one, in a sense, though not its first electric drive) that is among the very best. It's not just another auto company. In several regards, not just the electric one, Tesla is already advancing the state of the art. Given Elon's goal of not stopping until there is a global transition to electric cars, one of the possible outcomes seems to be that Tesla may become a market leader.

    Personally, I'd like Tesla to (partly later-on) also build batteries, electric planes and what-not (super capacitors). :)

    Maybe even drive trains for ships and things like that. In other words, a really large company.

    However, coming back to sustainable energy: to help enable or catalyze such a transition is a huge value, and not just an academic one.
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    Ha! I thought I was being humorous, but it's an actual thing. Thanks for the link!

    - - - Updated - - -

    A symptom of narrow-minded thinking. It's both. Deal with what that means, media. :)
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    Why my friends havent got the Tesla is cause they dont have a garage. All ppl With work and who drives alot can afford a model S.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Also: http://www.solarroadways.com/intro.shtml This is somewhat OT, but imagen what this can do to EV. If you have roads runnings the grid on renewable Power, than everybody can have a car! Also the charging issiue is gone. The roads are even smart, and might be the way to og for driverless cars. Look thru thoose videoes!
    �
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    You have a point. But just as a word of caution, I'd be very careful using experiences from Norway to generalize towards the expected response to Tesla in the rest of the world. Norway is an outlier because the average income is high and income inequality is a lot smaller than any other rich nation in the world. A parking enforcer can actually make enough money to relatively comfortably buy a Model S on credit. This will not be the case in e.g. Germany, so we should look how Tesla is received there before generalizing too much. The difference in price between a Model S and a sedan that's expensive but not extravagant is also much smaller in Norway, since it literally has no taxes. Whereas the tax portion of the price of a mid-to-high-end gasoline car will usually be around 50% of the purchase price. My prediction is that Norway will be the country with the highest portion of "regular" people that decide to buy a Model S. Results from here will not directly generalize to other countries, although the opportunities you pointed out will be present to some degree.


    I can't see a comment field on the story right now, but Tesla's reception in Norway has been very good. People are drooling over the car. Electrics are very popular, and most people are surprised to see an electric car that is feature-competitive with gasoline cars. Same as in the US.
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    I believe your points present excellent reasons as to why TM chose Norway as its beachhead to the European market. Very interesting!
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    I agree, and I'm very impressed with Tesla's market research here. I could probably have told them this, but I'm a Norwegian and I've never been to California.
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    Ah, the wonders of Norway, with high equality of income and massive taxes on gas cars.

    Interesting to see that the barrier to adoption there is lack of garages (and presumably lack of private driveways too?). The problem of getting electrical outlets for the parking spaces used by apartment-dwellers is an interesting one and I'm not quite sure how it's going to be solved; it seems that it would mostly be a bureaucratic problem, which should be solvable.
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    Tesla is getting lots of attention in Norway. Front page of two of the biggest online newspapers today. Don't have time to translate this time. Aftenposten points out that the car is half the price of comparable ICE cars. Many car enthusiasts buying, but also families.

    http://bil.aftenposten.no/bil/--Du-far-en-sportsbil-til-halv-pris-50741.html

    Reportedly, test drives are fully booked for three weeks at the Bergen store. A "three-digit" number of cars were sold before the store opened, although many of these are probably already shipped and counted in the known order queue.

    One very interesting takeaway: The newspaper interviewed two dealership owners (Land Rover, BMW, Audi, Mercedes). The dealership owners were dismissive, but noted that the number of people asking about Tesla was very large. However, it didn't make sense for them to actually import and sell Tesla due to Tesla's pricing philosophy. Apparently, there are some back-channel negotiations affecting all the other big brands, which make those brands a lot more lucrative for dealerships to sell. The conclusion here is that Tesla has made a very good choice by selling directly from their own stores. If you read between the lines you'll see that they have cut out the middleman, and the reason dealership owners are dismissive is that they won't get a cut they're happy with. This means greater margins for Tesla, which is a Good Thing.

    He also expected the sale of electrics to "take off" (even compared with Norway's existing situation in electrics)? and that the government would change its import regulations. The current tax regulations are expected to remain until at least 2018, though. After that, things are more uncertain. The result could be greater taxes on Tesla in the long run, but hopefully by then cheaper models will be available.

    The comments are thus far overwhelmingly positive, criticizing the dealership owners for dismissive comments and saying that the car is excellent.
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    We live in the mountains and the fjords you know. People in the cities often got maximum one garage, but very often none.
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    The August EV Sales in Norway:

    Total: 700 units (6% of the market)
    Leaf: 448 units
    MS: 185 units

    Best Selling ICE: VW Golf 514 Units

    Given the Norway's 6 operating Super Chargers, it seems that MS has a real chance to match Leaf's sales i.e around 5,000 cars/year.

    Just to give an additional perspective on the relative cost of MS, I was told that 60KWh is about the price of VW Passat TDI, while providing (much) better performance, (much) lower operating costs, (much) better technology content. Forget luxury brands (M5 is 3x more expensive than comparable MS), the only reason why anybody would choose VW Passat over MS 60 is lack of information.

    http://insideevs.com/august-sets-electric-vehicle-sales-record-for-norway-6-of-market-grabbed-by-evs/
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    I immediately imagined a house tucked into the back of a fjord, only wide enough for a single car garage. Slartibartfast would be proud.
    �
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    Except his planet is closed for business and in hibernation, awaiting the end of the galactic recession.
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    I was wondering if anyone can shed light on the consequences of the election victory of the 'conservative' party in Norway. Will the fiscal treatment of electric cars, which has been so beneficial for Model S-sales, change under a new government?
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    They will not do to much With the benefits until 2017. All parties in Norway have agreed. However they might set the price Down on hybrids or gas cars. It`s 4 parties that wants to get together in goverment so we wont know what they will do yet.

    BUT: You heard it on TMC first. Tesla Model S was the most sold(registered) car last week in Norway.
    Tesla Model S nr. 1 i Norge! - Motor - Hegnar Online

    You now have to wait about half a year for your car, even thou Tesla makes 250 cars for Europe each week. In Bergen, the waiting list for a testdrive is 3-4 weeks now.

    The Norwegian Krone has also strengthened against dollar lately. 1.5% just today. This will obviously give Tesla more dollars in since we pay fixed in the Norwegian Krone.
    �
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    ...and, as an encore, we've alerted the world to such existential mysteries as the sound of the fox and the meaning of Stonehenge.
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    hahaha i freaking love ylvis!!
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    Thanks for the information Norse. Keep it coming.

    How does a currency go up 1.5% in a day?
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    Speculators are trying to predict the future direction of Norway's central bank. There is a large amount of uncertainty regarding interest rates for the next few years, since there are strong forces pulling in both directions. (Down: Export companies are struggling. Inflation is too low. Up: Real estate prices are high, salaries are growing very fast, oil sector investments are massive). And new numbers just came out indicating that interest rates might increase sooner than expected.

    In addition, there has been very strong demand for the NOK the last few years, due to the financial crisis and the "flight to safety". Hence the amount of NOK available to trade is small. Norway's currency is obviously orders of magnitude smaller in volume than the USD.
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    Been thinking. Will street parking issues slow adoption rate for gen3? Assuming ppl who buy gen 3 usually don't have garages. Building out a charge port on every street parking spot will cost too much money. Has this analysis been done before?
    �
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    Not neccesarily. Every street lamp has electricity. Would not be too expensive to include an outlet. Metering and payment are another subject.
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    Your assumption is incorrect, people who buy gen 3 will have garages. And there is more than enough demand from those who have garages to make gen 3 a success. Demand will outpace supply for years to come.
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    I have several friends that are not buying the model S cause they dont have a garage, its pretty common all over europe to park on the street.
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    Out of 132 million housing units, about 82 million are houses, and another 18 million are 4 units or less which would usually have some access to charging. A quick glance at this chart shows that in more developed European nations, somewhere around 70% of the population lives in either an attached, or detached home. So even if no apartments or streets build any parking infrastructure, about 70% of people in the US will not have an issue charging.

    Apartment charging (non-street parking) is actually pretty easy to solve. Residents will begin to ask about charging and some apartments will start to provide it in special spots, probably at a monthly fee just like carports. EV charging will be listed with other amenities, and the amount of spots should grow pretty consistently with demand.

    Street parking is a tougher problem. I think progressive cities will lead the way by building out public stations similar to free public wifi many cities offer. It's harder to make the economics work for this scenario though so I'm not sure what the long-term solution will look like. Battery swapping could be a more feasible approach for a large city, and perhaps a higher demand and lower area to cover would work better for swapping stations anyways.

    Lastly, charging at work could solve this for a big chunk of people. It will never be the end-all solution though because people simply won't choose their job based on whether the employer offers charging stations. And there will always be jobs that cannot offer charging.
    �
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    I understand that this is limiting demand, but my point was that the demand from those that do have garages is already going to outpace the supply for years to come. Those without garages are irrelevant until Tesla becomes demand constrained, which imo may take a decade or longer.

    Remember that Elon said that initially Gen 3 production will be relatively small and only get up to 400k with time. If they produce 100k units in year 1, the demand will probably be a few times larger.
    �
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    I think there are some things that are cultural and simply isn't going to be able to address. Some places are predominantly street parking or parking structure and it's going to change a cultural level push from those types of places to bring about support for EV charging. As StapleGun said, residents will start to demand it, either at the apartment level or something at a city/county/state level with passing a levy to fund such things.

    The sad reality is that portion of the market will be largely unavailable until then. Tesla needs the other manufacturers to jump on board and make EVs common place and that's going to just take time.
    �
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    I think we have very different target markets in mind. What is the target audience that will satisfy 100k demand per year and have a house to call their own? When I began this exercise, I had a specific image in my mind on who will buy Gen 3. Mainly younger than 30 yr olds who lives in some type of shared living arrangement that cannot justify a Model S either because of its size or cost. Young graduates on Gen 3 release date and graduates after the 2008 recession. We have observed a trend of this generation staying home with parents more because of the scarcity of stable jobs. You can live in a house with a garage, but have no access to the garage. The house owners are the target market of Model S, the tenants inside are target market of Gen 3 mostly. Who gets to charge? I know I'd never let my tenant priority of the garage over me.

    In LA, what I am seeing is that houses are rented out to about 5~6 people at a time. Condo parking is costly and good luck getting them to install a charger unless you sit on the board. So street parking will most likely be the answer. Or some type of designated parking space at the back of smaller condos. These are the type of people that I think is the target market for Gen 3. Is this what you guys have in mind as well?

    Converting the street lamps to chargeport outlets still requires money and build out. But it'll be interesting to explore how much this will cost for feasibility reasons.

    I want to buy a Gen 3 as soon as it is announced, but the first thing that comes to mind is, I park on the street of a big sprawling city, where do I charge? Why not remove this worry even before the release.
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    Norse and you other Norwegians:

    Do you know of a way to determine whether the Norwegian Permanent Fund (that's what we call ours here in Alaska, anyway) is invested in Tesla, and if so, how many shares are they reporting owning?
    �
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    Speaking of long-term, Elon Musk already has mentioned that "All future cars will have Supercharger Capability", but does that mean that these "All future cars with Supercharger Capability" will also be allowed to charge for free forever at the Supercharger stations (just like the owners of a Model S and a Model X)?

    Two more quotes from Elon Musk are:
    "Something that's unique about the Supercharger is that it's free, it's not just free now, it's free forever.""By buying a Tesla you essentially have free long distance travel throughout the country for ever."

    I think that the answer to this question is pretty important for the sale of all future Tesla EV models.

    Anybody who would like to share his/her thoughts on this matter?
    �
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    Our oilfund have invested. I can see if I can find some info on it.
    ----
    Norway owned 0.44% in Tesla at 31th December 2012. http://www.nbim.no/no/Investeringer/beholdninger/beholdninger-flash/
    However I could not find em here. http://whalewisdom.com/stock/tsla

    - - - Updated - - -

    Not all model S can use the supercharger for free. But if you pay 2000$ then you can use it unlimited, if you buy a P85 its priced in. I Guess this will work out well in the future aswell. Cause for every 1000 car they sell, they have 2 million $ to create superchargers from. So this will create more profit for them.

    ----
    When it comes to streetcharging. Look at this: http://www.miljo.oslo.kommune.no/luftkvalitet/prosjekter_og_tiltak/article142778-39102.html
    I Guess you cant read it but you can see the Pictures and use Google translate. Anyways this was from 2011, And Oslo had 400 free chargers out in Public parking lots. Yes the parking in it self is free aswell.

    Some People are shouting out the model S is getting to good benefits, but in my town the pollution in the Winter is so high that it is a serious issue, and they have talked about only letting People drive gas cars every other day. Recently a big study showed that the chances of getting cancer from gas and diesel car are higher than what we have thought. http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanonc/article/PIIS1470-2045%2813%2970279-1/fulltext

    A state secretary defended Tesla, saying that they want to give Tesla the benefit cause that will strengthen Tesla in making cheaper car for the masses: http://www.vg.no/bil-og-motor/artikkel.php?artid=10126186
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    The target market is anyone who wants a real EV but doesn't want the expense or larger size of the S/X. There are millions of those people with garages, or at least access to charging. I don't have a garage but I did stick an outlet on the side of my house. I think you're too narrow focused on what you see around you.
    Because they will have enough demand without solving all charging issues ahead of time.

    I hope not, I think it will be too much of a burden on the company if the volume of free charging increases too much. Free encourages people who may not really need it to use it anyway.

    If Tesla did not offer free charging, would that cause you to not buy the car? It wouldn't matter to me one bit.
    �
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    JRP I thought you have a Model S.
    �
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    No, I'm waiting for a G3, driving my own conversion in the meantime.
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    oh wow. I had you completely pictured as a Model S target market. Could you shed light on why you choose Gen 3 over Model S?
    �
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    I see Gen3's initial target market in the U.S. as folks in houses w/garages (or condos/apts with covered parking/charging). Those who can only park on the streets in urban settings will likely be laggards in adopting EVs.

    There tens of millions of people in the U.S. with garages or at least covered parking in condos/apts. Definitely no shortage of market size for the time being.
    �
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    I'm probably waiting for gen3 too. Size of S/X just not appealing to me. Plus I'm imagining what a P+ version would be like with substantially less weight.
    �
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    Yes, we definitely have different target markets in mind. I don't see the people you are talking about buying many 35-50k cars (remember that $35,000 will be the very base model, and most cars will be quite a bit more expensive than that). The Model S is targeted at a very high end audience, the vast majority of people who own houses can't afford it. The Gen III is aimed at middle class homeowners (although even then the more affluent ones), not the younger audience you describe.
    �
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    On a test drive a few weeks ago we discussed Superchargingwith the Tesla representative. He saidthe when you plug into the Supercharger your credentials are passed into theirsystem.
    This will be very useful because in future cars, when youplug into the Supercharger, your debit card will automatically be charged forwhatever amount it costs to charge the car.
    I have no idea if this is actually Tesla�s plan but it does makesome sense to me.
    �
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    Point taken. I think I might have overestimated the wealth of different classes of people.
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    Sure, a number of reasons, foremost is that though I could have afforded the 60kWh S, one of the reasons I could is because I'd never make such a purchase, it just wouldn't be a wise decision. It's also a larger vehicle than I want, and because of that not as efficient a vehicle as I would want, so even if it were much cheaper I probably wouldn't get it. I'm not really a normal consumer though, and I have a very specific set of criteria that an EV needs to meet before I buy one. I'm hoping the G3 will have the right combination of efficiency, looks, performance, and value, before I pull the trigger. Nissan could take my money if they build the ESFlow and it turned out to be a good car before Tesla releases the G3 but it doesn't appear as if that's going to happen.
    �
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    I would be really surprised if there is a performance Gen3 that is faster than the S. Even if it were possible for technical reasons, why would they make a car that competes with the model S, a performance sedan?
    �
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    Because Elon wants to make the best car possible and crush the competition. Gen3 is going to be a lighter, smaller car, so it's not unreasonable to think they can make a great performance version. As for competing with the S on performance, if the underlying tech is the same then the S could get an update around then as well to add in the updated tech. If the performance gain is largely due to lower weight, well, there's a reason sports cars are generally faster than sedans. :)
    �
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    You might want to refine your question...
    Next Gen Roadster should obliterate any performance bar set by Model S. If not, they've done the Roadster wrong.
    �
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    There are a lot of BMW 3s and Mercedes Cs street-parked here in Boston neighborhoods. Seems pretty solidly in the Gen3 target market. Still, I agree that Tesla will remain supply-constrained for the next decade, so not being able to address 100% of the market isn't important for a while.
    �
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    Sorry Robert, maybe that I missed something. Why Tesla will remain supply-constrained for the next decade?
    Is it because of lack of lithium?
    �
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    No, it will because demand will outstrip their factory production capacity for a while.
    �
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    I'd say Boston is unusual in that way (although there are probably parts of other big cities that fit the same profile, just not to the same extent as Boston). As you say, they don't need to address 100% of the market.
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    I would have been where JRP3 was, except that I was not willing to buy a new gasoline car while I waited, so I wasn't able to wait. And I had the cash. Most people are more patient about this -- and don't have the cash.

    I know quite a few people in this situation and they are loaded down with student loans so badly that they can't really afford cars at all. Those who have to have cars are getting the cheapest cars they can get, and still they can't really afford them. This is US-specific, obviously...

    The slightly more well-to-do people in shared living situations like this might *share* a Gen3 (among the 6 of them), but are unlikely to be buying one each.

    My personal view of the market for Gen3 starts with well-to-do Europeans for whom the Model S is physically too big to drive through the narrow streets and park in the constrained parking spaces. There's lots of them. The US market, I'm a little less clear on, since it depends on how low Tesla can make the price, which depends on the price of batteries at the time.
    �
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    I think it would be unwise to ignore Japan. This site has a Japanese member for whom parking the Model S will be an exercise in precision because of the space constraints of parking lots. Gen 3 will open up the Japanese market considerably. The Japanese are nationalistic, but (a) they like advanced technology and (b) Tesla's using Japanese cell technology at the core of their vehicle.
    �
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    Priceline is one of the best performing stock over 5-10 years

    I have been continuously surprised by how well PCLN has been performing over the years. Their "name your own price" sounds like a gimmick in the beginning. However it does seems the differentiator that is keeping their growth engine going.

    Top stocks of the past 10 years - investing winners - MSN Money

    Here I put together a few household names in the mix
    - AAPL, GOOG, CRM and our dear TSLA:

    PricelineBestPerforming.jpg


    I know it is hard to picture before such a epic run starts. But seeing how PCLN performs, I have to feel a bit optimistic about TSLA hitting the $1,000 mark before the end of decade 2020.

    Of course with the price target and time frame so far out, I am just day dreaming... That is what "Long term" is for, right?
    �
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    Single point datum:

    I received my order confirmation back in May, but needed to postpone Build until I knew to where to have the car sent. Got that taken care of in mid-August, with a delivery date around Oct 6-10.

    Just got off the phone with TM, and was told that because of production backlog, the earliest I would have delivery is Oct 11-16, and can expect it to be more toward the end part than earlier. I certainly can live with that, and to me it is another suggestion that the DD and SS ;) continue to shift ever outwards and upwards.... :) :) :)
    �
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    Today share price touched $180. I assume there are many of us who purchased at $18 near the IPO.
    Congrats to all who now have (nearly) 10X appreciation. :)
    �
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    I hit 5 bagger status today!
    �
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    Some of us were IN on the IPO. So, yeah... very happy!
    �
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    $17 IPO, right? Hope you got a boat load of shares!

    OT- Elon didn't have a job for you? I saw the video, you asked at Teslive, right?
    �
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    At a Norwegian Tesla Conference yesterday the Tesla spokesperson said that GEN3 definently will come in 2016.
    �
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    Hi Norse, do you have a link to that?
    �
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    I need to get to $190 to claim 1,000%.
    �
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    That is still only a 900% return for you if it reaches $190 :tongue:
    �
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    Haha. Yes, *only* a 900% gain.
    �
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    It was one of the bosses at Tesla in Norway, he said it out loud at a Tesla/Stock Conference. And he seemed to be well informed, he also recomended all to buy more Stock, and he said that he had loads himself :)
    �
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