Chủ Nhật, 30 tháng 10, 2016

Alternative Energy Investor Discussions part 8

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Anyone else here like CSIQ as much as I do?

    I am extremely overweight CSIQ in my portfolios, e.g. 60% of my 401k is now in CSIQ (after selling off a little bit of my SOL after the nice run-up).

    It looks to me like this stock is forming a beautiful rounded bottom technical pattern. If this thing breaks above ~$16.50 on high volume, then it will be off to the races. Mid 20's will be my price target if this works out.

    You can wait till the breakout trade happens before getting in, but it looks very plausible to me. My fundamental analysis supports a $20+ price target as well.

    The risk here once again is a global recession, which I don't see likely in the next 12 months.

    edit: The rounded bottom pattern is two and a half years in the making.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sounds tempting to increase my holdings. I have a little bit of it. I haven't done enough of my own research to put a lot of money into it. TSLA takes up most of my time...

    Edit: Thank you for your insight!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have a half-weight position in CSIQ. It certainly has held up better over the past two(??) months than some of the other high-profile names in the sector, although cherry-picking data points can be a way to fool no one but oneself.....
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hey sleepy, I like CSIQ as well (but don't have any position as of yet), and I agree with you on the possible breakout point. My favorite Chinese solars are TSL, SOL and CSIQ (I'm currently still riding SOL with options).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
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    guest
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    guest
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    guest
    I just woke up... dangggg! SCTY! What's going on there?
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    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm kicking myself. I forgot I created a GTC order yesterday to sell half my SCTY sept calls when they doubled in value from my cost. So when that actually happened this am I sold half my calls. So 1/2 + 1/2 = sadness today. Oh we'll live and learn.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No worries, you did the right thing. You sold half, got your capital back in less than a week, and now you can ride the other half of your options risk free!

    I wrote that last Wednesday, when SCTY bottomed. It is up already 20% from Wednesday's low. They say not to try to catch a falling knife, but it is so rewarding when you time it right. The flip side of not trying to catch a falling knife is that you would have missed out on the first 20% move up.

    I always try to catch falling knives. That is my style of investing. The key to using this strategy is to do it only when you know that the down move doesn't make much sense. E.g. TSLA is going down like crazy because the entire market is correcting (I know that TSLA is actually a very low beta stock and doesn't move with the market, but this is just for illustrative purposes). But you know that we are still in a bull market because the economic indicators are telling you exactly that. So you try to catch TSLA on the way down, and be prepared to buy more if it keeps falling. In the end it will bounce back for sure, because the markets will recover shortly.

    On the other hand if Tesla announces that it has to halt production for an indefinite amount of time for some serious reason, then I would not try to catch that falling knife.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    One of my biggest blunders. Yesterday I set a bracket order to sell SCTY that was acquired when my naked put went under water. Somehow in the last 20 minutes it touch the $29.80 bottom price and my 10,000 shares were all sold in a hurry! The primary goal of selling it is getting the buying power back.

    Now I am looking at $40k difference just in 2 trading hours??:confused: The only consolation I have is some Nov calls I left. Those I don't need to bother as they don't take much buying power. What a flop! Good that my TSLA ship is doing well.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have a sept 21 call @ 34. I can't read where the top on this thing will be. I'm at the point of thinking about taking my profits (don't get greedy strategy) but hate jumping off the rocketship when it is still under power. Any ideas on where the best exit point on this call would be???
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Holy Hell, SCTY.

    ...

    That's all.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looks like my estimation about SCTY bottoming out at ~$29 was dead on. And some profit was taken (I'm still learning the game, though ;) ).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Oh Lordy, Lordy,
    Here comes $40

    !!!

    Way to go SCTY. Wow.

    My understanding - very vague - is that Direct Energy is among the largest of the utility "brokers" that have transformed the traditional concept of a captive market for a local utility monopoly. Regardless of how they do in fact operate, the take-away importance of this, I believe, is that it shows how an entity like Solar City has alternative channels for funding than the $500mm GS financing (which also is a good thing).


    Not a bad morning for my second-largest position (after TSLA)!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My gain today beats any of the single day gains I've got with Tesla in the last two years.............a large chunk of it was just recovering from what we had lost in the last month but I'm not complaining.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My scty options up 2000% shame I only had 4 :p

    Wasnt there a guy with alot of sep Calls that we adviced not to sell? Hope he didnt.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SCTY=wow today. I wish I had calls in SCTY, even if it were only 4! I'm actually just glad I didn't sell my stock. I was thinking of selling at 30 just to ease the bleeding but am so glad I held on. Still overall red, I originally bought in around $39, haha.

    SOL got hit hard today all thing considered...looks like it really tried to break $6 and when it didn't it sold off the rest of the day?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Was there a squeeze effect today for SCTY? Sure the news were good but 22%? I did not think the news were good enough to validate that kind of gain, or am I missing something?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wasnt the News, it was just a quick bounce back. SCTY was 52 in June and and 45 only a month ago. I think sleepy called the quick bounce.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SCTY just ripped it up today!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ouch Kevin, I've made the same sorts of mistakes. I don't even want to do your math at the closing price. Seems everytime I make a stop loss order or sell limit order, I regret it.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nice gain on SCTY. I didnt get in because i wanted to keep a small pile of cash in case of market pull back with taper and Syria. Looks like i made the wrong call :(

    Looks like SOL did the stop loss bounce down today. I would expect it to see if slowly recover over the next few days.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Same here mainly. I got greedy and wanted 28 to get in big. Something told me to dump a load of cash standing by into it yesterday but hey, if we could predict the future we'd be trillionaires.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree, I have only 20% of my sep calls left, but im riding them into next week.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, sadly I was talked out of doing this play by my broker. I would have been a very happy camper today... oh well, such is life!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Oh man, you can't ask for second opinion on these kinds of trades. It's really mainly gambling unless you really are that ahead of the market like many of us here on TSLA were months ago. You know this asset better than a broker does - you need to act on your own and be true to yourself on it.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sorry, kevin, can you just quickly explain what happened? You sold a put when the price was higher, the price fell and you got assigned the shares, you sold the shares using at stop loss order, and now the price is high again? Is that what happened?

    For me, I swapped 1000 shares out for 5 call options at 29.70 to meet a margin call. I thought I'd have a chance to open a larger position around 27. Live and learn. Maybe now that I'm getting some more money I'll back off my margin so that I can hold a position like this without getting a call so quickly.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    When dealing with high speculation assets it's always best to leave some margin cushion. Granted SCTY fell big, quickly. But always leave some decent padding to absorb an instant 20% drop. More if options are in play.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is the third time I have bought options in SCTY the day before a 20%+ increase. My odds must be a million to one. I bought options that expired about 6 weeks out the day before goldman sachs signed that 500m funding and the price did 25% or 26%. Incredible. This time they were November options, but still good for 110% and I bought a small amount of September 21st calls around 830 PST that went up 150% (I sold 40% by EOD). I also have shares in my trade account and IRA around 29 and 34 that I won't be touching for years. I expect the other solars to run up over the next 3 weeks too I specifically bet on CSIQ and SPWR.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think I am still down overall but SCTY erased most of my losses for the year. Wish I would of doubled down on my original 25 call contracts. I decided on 10 33 March leaps to go with the Jan leaps I was holding that were down about 80 percent. I am still down(In SCTY) but erased most of the losses today.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hey guys, got a question:

    I live in an HOA and our bylaws for solar panels are basically taken from the state laws. Ive been told the south side of the roof is the best, but thats not allowed if its the front of your house, which it is for me. So i wouldnt be able to get them. can our HOA change it? It doesnt seem right that the state would control how I should put panels on my roof.....
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes you got it right. That is exactly what happened.

    I usually have the discipline to make sure things like this does not happen. I touch SPWR and SCTY in the last month without much knowledge. It was the trading discipline save me from losing big. I did bought equivalent amount of calls of SCTY before exiting in shares so not all is lost. Still missing a day in the entire month makes me feel like a fool.

    Lately I trade mostly in options so I am pretty rusty with shares. the fact I concentrated so much on TSLA does not help me either to read the price movement of SCTY. I put in the bracket order just to get the hell out of it to reclaim the buying power. Too careless.

    - - - Updated - - -

    By comparison, I think option trading is a bit simpler, as one end of trade usually either expire worthless or the time clock dictates the trade. Direct Shares seems simple, but the lack of structure gives too much room for improvisations and mistakes.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SOL is taking a beating today. down 17% at open.
    Purely because of the stock offering?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SOL trading was halted apparently? can someone explain in easy term why the price would drop so bad with an offering ?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    wow, someone bought my remaining sol sep Calls for 0.25. theyre Worth 0 now :p
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well I'm now into SOL. That capital raise looks good and should improve their position, unless I'm missing something?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Arghh, I woke up 30 minutes after market was already open and my Sep13 calls were worth nothing already. Pain. Man, if I would have woken up earlier and read the press release, I definitely would have tried to exit my Sep and Oct calls at market open.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It is not the worst idea to buy at these prices because the market cap of the company after dilution is still about the same (or slightly lower) than it was yesterday. But now you are getting a better capitalized company. A good deal for those who buy today.

    CSIQ did an offering last month and the stock tanked from $14-$16 down to $10.66, before recovering back to the $14 level. It will take SOL a little longer to recover though.

    Let's hope these companies don't need another offering in the near future.

    Next in line to do an offering are YGE and TSL.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The SOL offering sucks (IMO).

    Their stock was worth $5.50 but they rose $70 million at a share price of $4.67. This shows desperation. Why couldn't they raise money at a higher price? Also, instead of raising a secondary which will dilute the shares, especially so because SOL's market cap is low... why not find a loan? SOL doing a secondary suggests that they couldn't find anywhere they could take out a loan. Does this mean that loans for Chinese solars are no longer available or are going to be extremely difficult to get? Is the only way to survive and get cash to raise a secondary and dilute shares like crazy? Anyway, it sends a bad message... not only for SOL but potentially for other Chinese solars in need of cash.

    And in addition they sell warrants with a strike price of $6.04 with an expiry date in 2017. This is another move of desperation, so it seems. SOL basically sells a 2017 option call with a $6 strike price. This is to raise more capital. But this just dilutes the common share pool more, eventually. And $6 strike price is very low, and the expiry is 4 years out.

    Overall, it seems like SOL is doing a desperation secondary at low prices that is going to dilute their share pool more than necessary. Why not just wait a couple months when your stock price is at $7-8? Why did they need to raise so much at such low prices? Why couldn't they find a short-term loan to meet their cash needs?

    Also, even if they needed/wanted to raise money now, why couldn't they just price their offering at $5.50/share and raise maybe $30-40 million? Forget the warrants. Raising at $5.50 wouldn't have damaged the stock that much. But raising at $4.67 and a large amount (their total market cap is under $400m, so $70m raise is a large % of their market cap), and then selling a bunch of low strike 2017 warrants... that's why SOL tanked this morning.

    As you can tell I'm not happy about this secondary offering by SOL.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I hope SOL recovers, but I agree it might take some time.

    CSIQ's offering was noticeably stronger (Canadian Solar | Investor Relations | News Release). They did at-the-market pricing for $50m to be purchased from "time to time." The stock didn't dip that much when it was announced (CSIQ Historical Prices | Canadian Solar Inc. Stock - Yahoo! Finance). It went from $12 the day before (8/14) to $10.64 on 8/15 and then to $11.47 the next day (8/16).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What you are missing in your analysis is that Canadian Solar first announced that it filed the paperwork to the SEC for a "mixed shelf offering" up to $200m, which includes sale of common stock, bonds, etc. For some reason, I can't find the press release (didn't look too hard either).

    The stock first went down after that announcement (can't remember how much, but about 10% I think). Then a few weeks later they announced the common stock sale and it dipped again.

    What worries me is that these companies have $500m of cash on their balance sheets and they are significantly diluting shareholders in order to raise $50m - $70m. I think that a lot of the cash is restricted and their real operating cash reserves are a lot smaller.

    When you are on the brink of bankrupcy you have to raise cash whenever feasible. These companies probably don't need the cash, but in case of a downturn in the economy it will come in very handy and could be save these companies from going under.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Btw really strong comeback on scty today!!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Oh Man Oh man... I was catching SCTY knifes but it payed off faster than what I expected. I hope other utility companies follow suite with Centrica Plc�s Direct Energy unit. it is a good sign.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    @Shortslaver:
    Good thing I got in at $29 then, hehe ;) .
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    that is exactly when I doubled my position.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
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    guest
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    guest
    The only thing that really bothers me about the SOL capital raise is that some (a lot of?) people already knew about this yesterday and that is why SOL was down 5% yesterday on heavy volume when all of the other solar stocks were going up.

    A lot of trading going on with insider information. Those people should be investigated by the SEC and thrown in to jail.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, I noticed that yesterday as well. It seemed odd at the time.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, I wrote this yesterday ^^. I guess I was wrong on why there was some sell off, haha... :(
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Anyone know why trade stopped between 9.31 and 9.40 on SOL?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Trading halt following a 10% or 15% decrease. Lets the market sort things out. There's also a clause that short selling can't happen the day after a circuit breaker trip, but I haven't seen that one hold true.
    http://www.sec.gov/rules/final/2010/34-61595.pdf

    Specifically, the Rule requires that a trading center establish, maintain, and enforce written policies and procedures reasonably designed to prevent the execution or display of a short sale order of a covered security at a price that is less than or equal to the current national best bid if the price of that covered security decreases by 10% or more from the covered security�s closing price as determined by the listing market for the covered security as of the end of regular trading hours on the prior day.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    looks like the SOL secondary offer has shot the horse in the face. I am still holding my Jan options until Q3 earnings.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And this is exactly what would happen to TSLA if they did another secondary stock offering in a matter of months; like some people suggest.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    i dont see it being this bad. this thread has pointed out why SOLs offering wasent the best of ideas.
    Just wish i would of taken profits, now i am back to square one. Yay for the stock market roller coaster. I just never get the timing right :p
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It is unfortunate, but these solar companies have been beaten down over the past two years and are in need of cash. That is probably one of the reasons the market is so heavily discounting their stock prices. I think that the market is already pricing in the need for a capital raise, so when these companies actually announce a capital raise these stocks should not go down as much as they had. E.g. SOL is off almost 30% from its peak a few days ago, while the capital raise only dilutes shareholders by less than 20% including warrants.

    A couple of days ago people were willing to buy this company at a $500m market cap. And now the market cap is under $450m (after dilution), while the company has an extra $70m of cash on their balance sheet to their disposal. So if you were buying then, you should be rushing to buy now.

    This is not how the market works in real life though, so the stock may go down even further. Buying options may not be the best play on these solar companies. I have bought options myself, but feel like I could have done just as well if not better simply buying shares. There will be plenty of ups and downs along the way.

    There is a lot of manipulation going on in these stocks and the only way to beat these "profession" investors is to buy and hold.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thats exactly what I did, added 4x to my leap position. There is no doubt in my mind that its going to be a huge payoff. I bought my first set of leaps before the last run up. Well not leaps but as far out as I could go, apr 14.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Me too. I bought some J14 calls as well, and bought back my J14 $7.50s for $0.20 that I sold for $0.60 last week.

    I have mostly been scooping up some CSIQ A14's over the past week. I will continue to do so if the stock goes down. E.g. I bought some A14 $17 today at the bottom and already got a ~10% increase in value. I have been taking advantage of these kinds of weaknesses in the last few days to increase my position.

    The reason I like CSIQ so much is because they have a robust (high margin) power plant business, and that is what differenciates them from the other Chinese solar companies. I don't know if I want this stock to go up (because of my exposure) or to go down (so I could buy more). As long as the economy improves this will be a sure winner.

    CSIQ also had some capacity underutilization in the past quarter, and if SOL is a sign of things to come, their financials and margins will get better once they hit full production (capacity underutilization also lowers gross margins).

    They have 5 power plants to sell this year and 18 next year. Most of these revenues are recognized on a completed contract method, which means full revenue recognition at time of sale. This means that as they were building out these plants over the past year or two, nothing would show up in the financials (maybe some indirect costs would show up). Therefore, the shareholders of last year were the ones holding the bag while the shareholders of next year will be the ones who benefit from all of these sales. Wall St. is too short-term oriented to price in these kinds of things into CSIQ's stock price. It doesn't help when you only had like one or two analysts following the company either.

    As a final note: Nomura says that you must own CSIQ and TSL in your portfolio. Heck TSL might end up being the better buy, but I haven't researched that company as much as CSIQ, and it does not have a robust downstream business like CSIQ does:

    We continue to see both these names as must-own stocks in this sector given cleaner balance sheets, strong management and strong cash flow outlook. We reiterate our Buy on Canadian Solar and Trina Solar. On our existing numbers, both Trina and Canadian Solar trade at 1x 2014F P/BV and are very attractive for long-term growth story

    http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2013/09/12/china-solar-market-stable-nomura-reiterates-buy-on-canadian-solar-trina-solar/?mod=yahoobarrons

    - - - Updated - - -

    In case anyone was wondering, I still love SPWR and have bought some more LEAPS when it was at $21. The only reason I haven't bought more SPWR is because these Chinese companies have ridiculously low valuations. Whereas SPWR were to double in value, these Chinese players would probably quadruple. Unfortunately the same holds true for downside risk.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Any ideas on why SCTY is dropping so hard?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Typical solar stock behavior. SCTY went up over 30% in 5 days and now it is pulling back a little. I wouldn't worry about it since it is on low volume. Typical profit taking.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Let's hope so. Haven't sold anything after the run up....! Seemed like a really big drop though, especially considering the market as a whole was up.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There is always the real possibility that SCTY is in a long term decline and this latest news was just a bump in the road. Now the stock will continue its downward spiral.

    Not saying that this is the case, but it is a realistic possibility and I have not excluded the scenario yet. SCTY may need another catalyst to get itself out of this funk.

    That is why SCTY is way too speculative of a stock to play with short term options. I think that you really have to buy and hold for a very long time if you believe in the business model, but that is not something I am willing to do yet. There are so many other short term plays out there for me.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I kind of agree....and so far I don't really feel like SCTY is out of the funk...monday will be an important day to determine that: if the decline doesn't stop that would be bad news for SCTY.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good day for solars. Hopefully it continues tomorrow.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I've gotten a few SEC filings from SCTY. It looks like they are trying to finalize an offering for convertible bonds, and also potentially a secondary stock offering.

    Anyone have any predictions/analysis as to the affect the convertible bonds might have on the stock value? Also, are these something that only institutional investors can purchase, or will they be available to the little guys (or little gals, like me)?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think they already announced this two weeks ago and it is already priced into the stock. FYI, the stock tanked from about $33.69 to $28 in the days following the announcement.

    I was also wondering why JKS started the day off so well before tanking in the second half of the day. Your answer is here:

    JinkoSolar Announces the Offering of 3,500,000 American Depositary Shares - Yahoo Finance

    Once again some people knew about this and started selling off their shares. This insider information, aka illegal trading is really annoying and the SEC should put people in jail for this.

    TSL and YGE have not yet done any secondary offerings, so they are next on the chopping block. CSIQ and SOL have already done theirs, so I hope that they don't go back in for another round. I am assuming they won't and find them once again investible.

    US solars had a good day because California passed a bill that among other things will remove a cap on the total number of solar owners who are eligible for net metering payments. This is a very good thing for SCTY and SPWR. The bill is called the Perea Bill if you are interested in reading about it. The bill would also allow utilities to charge a flat fee of up to $10 to cover system maintenance costs (transmission lines, etc.). This is a negative for solar, because that means that SCTY becomes a little less profitable, but at the same time it evens the playing field. Without this fee normal customers were essentially subsidizing those with solar panels on their roofs. I think that this is a good compromise for everyone: utilities, customers, and solar companies. Everybody wins some and loses some.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I totally agree. Seems like a fair compromise. Not really sure how the grid maintenance cost is calculated though.....where do those 10$ come from?

    But apart from that....SCTY went up nicely but since we had this little catalyst I wouldn't consider it out of the funk yet....I guess we'll know for sure by the end of the week. Would be nice to see it go back above 40$. But some consolidation at the 35-37 range would also be a pretty good sign of strength.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The Public Utilities Commission will conduct a study to decide how much to charge. The congressman who sponsored the bill said that it will initially be a $2 or $3 charge, but the PUC will decide. Here is the article where I got my information from, so I cannot attest to the accuracy of it:

    Impacts Of California's New Bill On The Solar Industry [First Solar, Inc., SolarCity Corp, SunPower Corporation] - Seeking Alpha
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    wow....my broker just informed me that trading of SCTY been halted!? Is it true or just some kind of glitch on my side?

    - - - Updated - - -

    never mind.....it's trading again....weird.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have mentioned Renewable energy coorporation earlier, then as a looser because of the 57% polysilicion tax. But look here: http://www.solarserver.com/solar-magazine/solar-news/current/2013/kw38/china-imposes-anti-subsidy-duties-on-us-polysilicon.html

    This might be a really interesting Stock now, I know there is a heck of alot of inside buying. I`ll try to do some Research on em, but busy days atm.

    Also, take a look at this:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-17/china-to-strictly-limit-building-of-more-photovoltaic-capacity.html
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Norse - China imposed anti-dumping duties up to 57% and then another 6.5% anti-subsidy duties last week. REC still has to pay the 53%-57% tax, but is exempt from the additional 6.5%.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Okey, my bad. Still the Stock is up abit lately. They are gonna separate REC poly and REC solar. I think REC Solar, which has factories in Singapore, might be a good buy even tho. And the 57% cant last forever.

    And sleepy, what did you think about the Bloomberg link?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sorry to dig up an old post, but I saw something today about First Solar that piqued my interest -- out of curiosity, is the outdated technology you are referring to Cadmium Telluride? I know this is an amateur question, but can you summarize what makes First Solar's technology outdated relative to the other panel manufacturers?

    Thanks in advance,
    Surfside
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It is good overall for the Chinese companies, but there is some risk for the tier 1 companies. You might see TSL, YGE, or CSIQ issuing stock to buy up some small Chinese tier 2 or 3 companies to scoop up their capacity. In the short run this may cause the acquirer's stock price to go down, while the acquiree's stock to go up. In the long run it should be good, but be ready for some 5% down moves potentially. The market may also react positively; it all depends on the deal.

    I really don't know that much about technology. Theshadows knows a lot, since he installs this stuff. I just try guess what the world will look like next year, 5 years from now, etc.

    First Solar outdated technology because they use thin film, which is not very efficient, so they can only build power plants. They can't do rooftop installations unless their purchase of Tetrasun (and their unproven technology) pans out.

    They used to be the leader, because they made panels a lot cheaper than the other multicrystalline; think under $1 vs. over $2 or so. Now they are not much cheaper and at the same time a lot less efficient. They are still competitive in the power plant business if the price of land is really cheap. This may not last forever.

    I just don't like it. There are a lot better options to invest in.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks -- this is helpful. The thing I saw was about the continued success of their power plant business, which now makes more sense.

    As for me, I'm still long CSIQ, SOL and SPWR (oh and SCTY), although my CSIQ 16 1/14 options are still underwater (I'm hoping they will turn back to green -- at one point they were up 40%).

    Surfside
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Here is a rebuttal that someone did to one of Seeking Alpha: Dark Clouds over Solar City.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/1700112-dark-clouds-ahead-for-solarcity


    this is what he add to say:

    kbaran

    1) The 30% tax credit going down to 10% will have little or no effect on solar being at grid parity or on general demand for solar. Today solar makes economic sense for more than 25% of residential electric consumed in the US. And that number is increasing rapidly as solar costs continue to come down. Solar installation costs have been going down on average at 7% per year for the past decade, even faster than that in the last few years. And electricity costs are going up at least 2-3% per year. That translates as ~10% improvement on general economics of a solar investment each year. By 2017, those two trends will more than make up for the 20% decrease in tax credits.

    2) You are comparing apples to oranges. You clearly don�t fully understand the differences between business models of SCTY, FSLR and RSOL. SCTY is a vertically integrated builder and asset manager of solar systems. FSLR is a tech play on a specific type of solar technology. They also build and sell solar systems. But they do not hold solar assets as an asset manager would. RSOL is also a builder and seller of solar systems. And they do not hold solar assets for the long term. SCTY builds, holds, and operates the solar assets. SCTY is similar to a homebuilder and a real estate management in one. The other two are similar to homebuilders. As a side note, just the future cash flows of the assets that SCTY owns today is equal to about 50% its market cap.


    and:

    Sigh. Sigh. SeekingAlpha should not let unqualified people contribute articles.

    RSOL does not take ownership of the solar system. Just look at their 2012 Balance Sheet and compare it to SCTY's. SCTY has this line called "other Assets" for $1.3B. RSOL has no such asset.

    In the case of SCTY, they partially own the "Lease Fund" which they co-create with Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, etc.

    In the case of RSOL, they build a solar system and sell that system to a "Lease Fund". Companies like Clean Power FInance facilitate that back-end financing. But none of the future recurring "financing" cash flows end up with RSOL. In the case of SCTY, they end up with a huge recurring revenue.

    and:

    What I don't understand is - how can you compare an asset managers lease revenue to a builder's revenue. And than compare their P/S ratios?

    Furthermore you then say, "At the end of the day these companies all sell solar..." and impling they are all of the same cloth. It is like saying a mortgage security business is the same as a local or regional home building contractor or a large engineering firm like Bechtel...

    Do you know how much more goes into seting up and managing the financing funds? Anyway... more sigh.

    And what are those headwinds again? That the ITC is going down from 30% to 10%? I thought we covered that already... sigh. sigh. If you are so sure of such headwinds, why don't you short SCTY. I will be long myself. And let's talk in another year or two.

    Btw, let's continue your education. You say "They are all exposed to demand of their respective solar panels." SCTY does not produce or sell "their own solar panels". They buy and install mostly Chinese panels (from companies like TSL, YGE, etc...). I think a statement like this would have been correct: "They are all exposed to the demand of their respective solar systems."


    he makes a lot of sense. what you guys think?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sigh. Sigh. SeekingAlpha should not let unqualified people contribute articles.

    ...that is the point of SeekingAlpha.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    NOT a good day for solar so far...Sigh. Shall I buy more solar or tesla? ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I actually sold some TSLA today to buy some JKS. I still think that the run for TSLA is not over, but I never invested in JKS and thought today would be a good day with the stock below $17. Credit Suisse came out with what seems like a good report for JKS and a $22 PT. For some reason they gave it a hold rating even though their PT represents 30% upside.

    I haven't done too much research on JKS, but know that they are a low cost producer, have relatively low debt, and are the first US listed Chinese solar company to return to profitability. They have very high gross margins due to their downstream business, which is key (that's why I like CSIQ and SPWR as well. I like SOL but they don't have a downstream business which will limit its upside). I think it will be a good buy, but should have probably done some more research.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I also bought some more calls on CSIQ and SOL.

    CSIQ is still my favorite play for now.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not as good as a deal on TSLA anymore, I didn't react fast enough so that made the decision to buy solar an easy one.

    I decided to buy some more shares of CSIQ and closed out some October monthly covered calls on SPWR that were nicely ITM.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    With CSIQ you might need some patience, because they have 3 power plants that are virtually sold, but still waiting for official sale process to complete. These power plants will be recognized 100% at time of sale, so if they don't close them by the end of this month (it could be 0,1,2,or 3) then all of the revenue, gross margin, etc. will not get recorded until Q4. So Q4 will look like a blowout quarter. They have a lot more power plants that will close in 2014 (about 18 of them).

    Q3 might look just ok without these sales, but for FY14 there is an analyst that has CSIQ EPS above $3, and similar numbers in 2015 from what I saw somewhere. Even at 10x PE ratio you are looking at a $30 stock, but if it continues to grow then you might see 15x - 25x PE ratios. Note that it might be hard for them to grow rapidly due to lack of capital, but there is a lot of distressed assets (read: capacity) that can be purchased fairly cheaply.

    Risk is that CSIQ further dilutes its shareholder base to have capital to grow.

    Bought JKS today at $16.95 and it is already at $17.90. This was a pretty easy buy, since the Credit Suisse report seemed very bullish (even though they had a hold rating on it); and the drop in price early today was not warranted, but JKS followed the rest of the solar sector down. There are many opportunities to make easy money in the market like this one; other examples include DB upgrade (could have bought TSLA at market open for $169) or SCTY deal last week (when it opened around $30 and then climbed up 22% that day). You just have to spot them and take a quick contrarian bet against the market to profit from this, which can be hard to do.

    - - - Updated - - -

    SOL is getting no love because of its recent secondary offering that turned out to be very dilutive. This offering doesn't make any sense to me, unless they are planning to buy some more capacity. They already sold out all of their product through the end of the year and are taking offers for 2014. I would hope that they raised the money for something more than just general corporate purposes. On the other hand $70m won't really buy you too much.

    SOL is also investing heavily in R&D, so if they use money to come out with great products (such as their microinverter) then it could be money well spent.

    The market is in a wait and see approach with SOL, but I have high hopes only because mgmt. said during last ER that ASP's are projected to be at $0.66 in Q3 vs. $0.61 in Q1 or $0.63 in Q2 (also projected $0.68 in Q4 and said they will be above $0.70 in 2014). Every $0.01 increase in ASP is essentially a 1.7% in gross margin, which is huge when all these pennies add up.

    SOL doesn't have a downstream business, so that can limit their upside, but it seems like their business model is set up perfectly to profit from SOL in the short to medium term.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    btw CSIQ has got JAN16 options now.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It appears that the US is going to attempt to abolish the trade war it started with China. See this article. If the dispute is abolished it will be tremendously huge for all solar companies. The current import taxes imposed by both countries is massive. This will mean more profit for panel producers and lower product costs for the installation companies. Which will result in lower end consumer cost to install solar. :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Would this greatly help SCTY's business model?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm not sure how they will apply it, it should though. I don't do leases so for our customers it will result in more cost effective systems because I will be able to lower prices. This will result in more sales, increasing our sales as well as word of mouth on how affordable solar is. This trade war never should have happened in the first place. :cursing:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hi Theshadows, may I ask what is the average $ per Watt installed? I just priced a 6KWh for a house in Europe and it goes for 10k euros = $12500 installed including the tax credit. I think that is dirt cheap.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is just one analysts opinion, just like the BofA analyst thinks that TSLA is worth $45 (raised PT from $39). They both may end up being correct, but they are both outliers and will most likely end up being wrong.

    In this case it is Axiom Capital (never really heard of them and I worked on Wall St.) analyst saying that Chinese solar companies are worthless. He lumps CSIQ with LDK in the same category, which shows how little he knows about the industry.

    When you work on the street, you either work for the well respected big research houses, such as BofA, Goldman, MS, JPM, etc. or you work for a "no-name" shop such as Axiom Capital and you have to be an outlier in order to make a name if you turn out to be correct (can't be middle of the road and correct in a small research shop, because nobody will care).

    This is how Meredith Whitney made a name for herself in some no name research shop (Oppenheimer? I can't remember), she was the most bearish analyst on the banks pre crisis and turned out to be correct.

    This is also why you see the most bullish analysts (Andrea James and Northland Capital) on TSLA are from no-name shops and they are trying to make a name for themselves. This is also why TSLA doesn't move much when Andrea James raises her price target, but moves a lot when DB raises its PT.

    In the end this article is the same old oversupply, yada, yada, yada... And I think that the analyst is banking on a global recession in which case solar stocks will plummet and he will look like a genius.

    Oversupply is not really that much of an issue right now as evidenced by rising ASP's. Tier 2/3 capacity is sitting idle, because nobody wants to buy that junk anymore. I still think that the tier 1 players are set up nicely to profit from the solar rebound. You can see here that the price of Chinese panels has increased 10% in Europe since January:

    http://www.pvxchange.com/priceindex/Default.aspx?langTag=de-DE

    There is a lot of idle capacity that you can't bring on-line, and won't be brought on-line unless they can run at a profit. Companies will not start up additional production lines to lose more money. Tier 1 companies are benefiting from all this, and they are the ones who will use the idle capacity to build additional panels. SOL already has sold out all of its capacity through 2013 and solar demand has been going up globally and will continue to do so.

    Everybody has access to the same information, it is just a matter of being able to see where the world is headed; and not many have this ability. The best indicator of what the market thinks about this report is its response; and I would say that Chinese solar stocks are overwhelmingly in the green today even in a flat market. JKS +5%, TSL +4%, YGE +3%. Only negative is SOL and it is pretty much flat on the day - 0.5%.

    If this guy turns out to be correct, it will be due to a recession and not current overcapacity.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Im so freckin pissed off, I have followed Daqo for a month now, and not pulled the trigger. Theyre up from 8 to 24. And they are a polysilicon manufacturer based in China!
    -------------------
    Edit: 26 now. Up 33% today!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I never looked at this company nor do I know anything about it, but I would like to guess that the buy point for this company would have been the day China announced import tariffs on US and Korean Poly, correct?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It was 9.53 on the 3rd of September. 27 now. Insane!!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Norse - There are plenty of opportunities like this one to make money. Let this be a lesson to you and next time be ready to pull the trigger. I have not followed any Chinese poly producers, but the tariff on poly imports was a clear buy signal and you could have made easy money on this one.

    There are many opportunities like this so don't worry too much about missing out and look for the next one.

    E.g. Just yesterday I bought some JKS for $16.95 and it is already up to $19.20, which like 14% gain in one day. The trigger for me was the glowing Credit Suisse report that came out on JKS. But for some reason they put a "hold" on the stock even with a PT of $22 representing 30% upside. The stock started the day down, because people weren't focusing on the important part of the report (that JKS has a lot of upside potential) and instead focused on the "hold" rating. Research firms sometimes give hold ratings because they have to. E.g. the company I worked for forced us to have at least 30% of our stocks under coverage as either hold or sell, and at least 10% as sell (or something like that).

    I don't know that much about JKS, but I knew that the market didn't price in Credit Suisse report on this stock properly and I made my bet (even sold TSLA to get capital to buy JKS) and it turned out to be the right move.

    Just keep plugging along and you will find plenty of opportunities like this one you just missed.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I also bought JKS yesterday. Got any feelings on target price in next 2-3 months? Or are you long?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I really don't know. This company has been running a little hot lately and that is because it has come out of a reverse head and shoulders pattern that was 1.5 years in the making. The actual buy point on this company was July 15th when it blew past the $11 resistance on high volume to close at $12 that day.

    I have no idea how long the run will last, but I might sell this at any time. I bought it in my 401k where I have long only positions in stocks. I trade a lot back and forth, but I fell like JKS is still the "hot" story out of Chinese solar industry and may still have some room to run.

    My favorite play is CSIQ and I am just waiting for it to explode. It might not happen for a while, but at the same time it might happen tomorrow. I don't want to miss out when it does happen, so I have a ton of exposure to CSIQ; an almost unhealthy amount. The only thing holding that stock back has been foreign currency exchange. Unfortunately the USD is strengthening and it might hurt them again this quarter. But once they figure out how to hedge (or the dollar weakens) then their financials will start to look really good.

    If CSIQ can blow past its $16.40 resistance on high volume then it will have effectively broken through a 2.5 year rounded bottom technical chart pattern, that will lead to explosive growth that may last for a long time.

    I still can't believe CSIQ is so cheap. I have to be missing something here, because it is trading on a forward P/E of 5x. Someone please let me know if I am missing something on Canadian Solar (CSIQ)?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Up 54% today! Wow! Do any of you guys utilize tools to track largest market gainers in real time?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    72% and no news. Insane! I dont know when to sell here. Guess I should get out now!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Norse, how many shares did you buy?!!! It's up 72%!! Crazy!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Norse, I know nothing of this company but there's sure to be a pullback tomorrow. I'd sell. Curious, how much might you profit?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Only 80. But I am buying some cheap chinese stuff, cause I think alot off them will be taken over and I think Q3 will be a good Q for some of them. When DQ was at 8 or 9 I tryed to buy LEAPS, they didnt have any options :( Imagen what only 20 contracts would give in Return...I will now use the profit from DQ and KNDI to buy some more chinese stuff for the fun off it.

    gene: only 800$, got in at 23,8 sold at 33.80. Woulda been 100 times more if they had options :(

    Guess we should find similar Companies, but take a look at this.

    "Volatile Daqo New Energy Corp(NYSE:DQ) has soared to new 52-week highs over the last 45 minutes of trading. No news has hit the wires to explain the move. Last week, Daqo soared after announcing polysilicon supply deals with three solar wafer manufacturers. Less than 4% of the float was shorted as of Aug. 30."

    http://www.nasdaq.com/article/daqo-new-energy-q2-loss-widens---quick-facts-20130911-00167

    Key stats and ratios for DQ


    2012
    -42.68%
    - - - Updated - - -

    Could this be the right thread for KNDI aswell? It`s alternative energy, and I Guess its the same kind of ppl has got KNDI as solar Stock. I got in at KNDI at 4-5, sold at 8. In at 5 again, but something tells me to hold this time.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This was how I interpreted the report as well, but I wanted to know what you real pros thought as well. Thanks for your comment sleepy, your input is invaluable!

    - - - Updated - - -

    Norse, theres a new thread for KNDI - http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/21864-KNDI-Investment-discussion/page2
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Anyone looked at STRI? Market cap of 94.60 million. 85% Institutional owned. Not much Revenue yet, and very unclear guidance.

    "The Company finished the quarter with $72.3 million of cash and no debt. As of June 30, 2013, the Company also had $9.3 million of income tax receivables, of which approximately $7.0 million relates to income tax returns filed in 2012. The Company recently learned that its 2011 and 2012 U.S. Federal income tax returns will be routinely audited by the I.R.S. As such, approximately $5.6 million of the income tax receivable will not be received by the Company until the audit is completed."

    http://www.strsolar.com/

    TheShadows, sleepy or anyone else got any idea if theyre Product is usefull? They are going into mass Production.
    Ty for the thread Bonken!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Here is an interesting one:

    Solexel | Company

    It is not publicly traded, but has been getting a lot of venture money lately. Sunpower has invested in this company, and might be a big beneficiary if this technology proves itself.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Woot! glad I bought back those SPWR covered calls yesterday.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    One of the reason why I didnt pull the trigger on DQ in the first Place, is that I do not belive that polysilicon is the way to invest in the solar-market as manufacturers need less polysilcion. Also in late 2012, 90% of the polysilicon Production in China stopped. However the tax on US polysilicon made em start up again. It`s obviuos that it wont be good for DQ if the trade war stops. But since DQ are one the newer Companies with Advanced Production Technology, they might be one of the few chinese polysilicon manufactures that make it.

    I should not have looked at their old numbers since I knew there was a trade war, lession learned!!!

    Time to buy other polysilicon producers for a short-term play as they will get contracts as DQ did? Maybe ;)

    - - - Updated - - -

    Thank you, since I listen to sleepyhead I allways got SPWR Stock and options :)

    Btw: SunPower currently holds a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). Other attractive stocks in the solar space include JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (JASO), JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. (JKS) and LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (LDK), all sporting a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

    Are we that sure LDK is a looser? theyre priced really low, they have lots of polysilicon and they have good guidance.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Do you know who their customers are? It looks like a manufacturing product.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have been quietly scooping up SPWR calls over the past month at a discount. The calls are so cheap because volatility is down and so is the stock.

    There has been no news from SPWR at all, so there hasn't been any stock movement. I don't think that the Zacks Research will make a difference, but I am not sure; do stocks move on Zacks upgrades? It says that they upgraded on Sep 19, so it won't make a difference tomorrow?

    Sunpower needs to announce that they are adding capacity and the stock will explode. But if they announce a secondary offering in order to build new fab manufacturing, then I am not sure how the market will respond. If it is not too dilutive then it might represent a good buying opportunity. As DaveT mentioned, the market penalized SPWR because their is no growth left with capacity sold out for next 18 months.

    I still like SPWR as the long term winner in the industry.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Have loaded up With STRI and btw, Daqo is producing polysilicon at US$16/kg, while LDK will not open they polysilicon factories until it reaches US$23/kg, Renesolar produces at US$18/kg

    The spot price is at a range of 16-20
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I did some initial research on STRI and it is a binary stock.

    What is their encapsulation technology needed for? Do all solar panels use some kind of encapsulation? What are their competitors? Or is this some kind of enhancement product that isn't necessary but increases production or longevity of the panels?


    As far as poly production goes where did you get your numbers from? Specifically the Renesola number? Are they producing at $18/kg right now? In their Q2 ER CC they said that they are producing at $25/kg in (they just put the plant back into service on July 1). This sounded high, but they had some excuse why and the plant flooded in July, so maybe that was a cause as well.

    Remember not all polysilicon is created equal and there is a difference in quality.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Any thoughts on SCTY? I have October 32.50 calls that are currently in the money. Thoughts on hold/sell?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    http://www.pv-tech.org/news/renesola_claims_us18_kg_polysilicon_cost_after_plant_upgrades here is the SOL numbers. I know about the difference in quality. The best polysilicon factory is 30 minutes from my home town here in Norway. They have not maybe Money the last years, it might change soon tho. Its owned by Elkem, which Norway sold to the chinese for some reason. STRI I am still doing Research on, but they have almost more Money than theyre market cap.

    farzyness: I would rather have leaps in SCTY.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I also bought some more SOL options yesterday, since the stock was beaten down and quite frankly cheap.

    I expected a quick rebound in SOL, and it looks like it is coming today already. You will not get many opportunities like this and it looks like it has already passed; I wish I had bought more but am happy that I got some.

    If your $18/kg number for SOL poly is correct then we might see some cost reductions; even though SOL didn't guide for lower costs (guided towards exact same costs as Q2). This doesn't make much sense to me since they re-opened their poly plant on July 1, and what is the point of making your own poly if it doesn't reduce costs? SANDBAGGERS! As evidenced by how much they sandbagged on their Q2 earnings preannouncement in mid July (already post Q2 closing date, so they shouldn't have been off by that much).

    They already guided towards a 5% increase in ASP's in Q3 vs. Q2. So if they can actually achieve 6%-7% increase in ASP and 1%-3% cost reduction, then you will see a lot higher gross margins and blowout earnings. I still have few thousand shares of SOL and a bunch of options. I still think that this will turn out to be a great buy.
    �
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