Thứ Hai, 31 tháng 10, 2016

Alternative Energy Investor Discussions part 18

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Diluted the cost on my SOL and JASO options today. Hopefully we start to see things pick back up now that earnings are around the corner. Maybe if people see companies like SPWR do well this week they will start to load up on other Chinese solars in anticipation of their respective earnings reports.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good call on stock and LEAPS. Solar stocks have been going up and down in huge swings and nothing will change in the near future. The trend though has been up, and I expect it to continue and so does DB.

    I lost 30% of my portfolio over the last two days, but I don't care because I knew this would happen. And my portfolio is still higher than it was last week even after those losses. I am sticking to my strategy to buy and hold and hope for the best. No reason to trade in and out, because you will never time the market right with these solar stocks.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I picked up some JASO last friday only to see another big drop today. I am tempted to pick up more solar stocks like HSOL, CSIQ, JKS, SOL given that I really don't see any sensible news/reasons for the global slowdown on Solar stocks. Anyone care to educate me why the sudden drop and which ones of the solar players do you recommend for a short term ride up (profit from the senseless dip, not planning long term holding).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have posted the reason for the drop a few pages back. Hint because of NQ and Muddy Waters.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I see. I plan to watch out how the solar stocks fare tomorrow and possibly load up some more if I see weakness. Did you have any favorites amongst HSOL, CSIQ, JKS, SOL? HSOL for instance took a pretty hard beating in the last week.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just make sure you are a buy and hold investor. If you are talking about stock, then my favorites are CSIQ and SPWR, since these are the two best companies.

    JKS is probably a little oversold, but I think some Bloomberg "expert" (who has been talking solars down for a while) claimed that JKS sells panels to itself and that's why it tanked. I have not researched JKS enough to comment on this, but that is the reason for the huge JKS sell-off. Probably a great buying opportunity but I am not sure how seriously people are taking this guy or if the accusations have any merit (my limited understanding on the topic is that they don't have merit, but please research yourself).

    JASO and SOL are my two favorite value picks, they only need a hint of good news to take off. But as you can see no news could be detrimental. These are long-term buy and hold investments that can pay-off quickly or slowly (or never, but then the whole sector would have to tank unless there is some fraud or force majeure event).

    I don't know much about HSOL, but the solar investors I do know prefer SOL over HSOL since they both have the same market cap.


    And lastly, people only focus on how much money they lost and you can't do that if you want to make sound investment decisions. I lost a lot of (paper profits) money too over the past two days, but I still have more than I had last week. Stocks go up and down, solar stocks go up a lot more and down a lot more. If you invest in solar you have to understand this concept. So if you are getting in then do it now and plan to hold for a long time. All of these stocks are down 15%-30% from their peaks on Thursday. They may go down more today, but I am not sure if they have much further to go. Even if they do go down more, you still bought at a 30% discount compared to others who bought on Thursday.

    As much as you can't get greedy when cashing out gains on the way up, you also can't get greedy on the way down looking for an entry point. You had the right idea: buy some on pullback on Friday, then buy some more on another pullback on Monday. If they pullback again 5%-10% today, I would probably put in the rest of my money to work because they can't go down forever unless you think these stocks are worthless. This is just my investment strategy, but everyone has a different risk tolerance and financial goal, so please make your own investment decisions accordingly.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    JASO back above 10$. I have but a small position in JASO but I'm glad it's recovering a little.

    CSIQ also going up nicely.

    Solar stocks are displaying their usual "upwards ramp" behavior: a slow and steady raise throughout the day. Might be a good sign that the good times are back.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ya JKS back up 10%. man i shouldnt of limped so weak on JKS yesterday, haha.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I shifted some SPWR money over to SOL. I got SOL at $4.16 so was able to see all 10% it went up today while SPWR "only" went up 4% today so it ended up being "smart" for today. I did this I've been real heavy in SPWR and wanted to shift some of it somewhere else. I wanted to move it to JASO or SOL. After some research last night and the fact I'm already as heavy as I wanted to be in JASO I picked SOL.

    Here's to hoping SPWR has a good ER tomorrow and it brings everybody up.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have a tiny amount of money I was considering throwing at the weekly, but I really have no idea what to expect so that feels akin to spinning the roulette wheel.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SPWR getting a pop is purely going to be on guidance. they have been at full capacity for some time now so they cant grow (Q2 took a massive hit because of that) If they havent expanded their capacity or at least tell us they have more coming online in Q4 then they are probably going to take a beating again. I looked and cant find any proof that their will be new capacity. Best info I found was a possible partnership with another company in 2014. I dont know if that is going to be enough.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    ckessel,

    with solar stocks being so volatile and the uncertainty associated with earnings, I would recommend spending the money on a LEAP rather than weekly options. If spwr disappoints in any way, there is time to recover with the LEAP. The weekly would be worthless.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Or even stock, lol. I learned this the hard way last ER. SPWR was supposed to have an awesome quarter, and they did, but guidance wasn't what the street wanted so down the stock went! My stock came back with a vengeance but the monthly options **poof** tax write-off.

    You can still make good money in solar with stock!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I also feel like working with options is different for each company and you have to be tracking it for a while to get a good grasp of how it moves. I've watched TSLA enough to understand it but these solar companies are pretty different (IV, volume, etc). Having said that, with a lot of these stocks going pretty high pretty fast you can still make money but there is more risk obviously. I've gotten some options but recently have been focusing on shares. Got some SOL, CSIQ and SPWR yesterday and don't regret it so far :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hmm, so riddle me this, sort of the same question in reverse. I've got a block of November 16th options on SPWR I bought a few weeks ago. If you already had the options, would you sell and buy stock/LEAPS?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Depends on your tolerance to lose that cash. If you willing to gamble it, hold them. If not change over to LEAPS at the minimum. I really have no way to know which way SPWR is going to go as there is no information on expanding its production line, which is what hurt them last ER. Is this no information meaning they dont have anything? or are they hiding it? and even if they have something, is it enough to make the market happy?

    I am slightly bearish on their ER report due to the lack of knowledge on increased production (Disclaimer i am no expert so dont blame me for a bad trade) which is why i am only limping in for the ER. That is my opinion and i am trading accordingly. If someone can show me some hard data they have expanded then i would be on board.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Which solar is reporting Q3 earnings first? I am focused on earnings on the ones in my portfolio, which are basically the ones most discussed here. I am planning to sell a portion of my calls before earnings and don't want to miss the boat because some bellwether solar that is not on my radar reports early.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SPWR tomorrow is first
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SPWR FSLR and SCTY in that order. The Chinese have not announced dates yet.

    Btw, CSIQ did not follow SPWR down after earnings last time..
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    FWIW, I am extremely bullish on SPWR and all solar stocks going into ER (no, this is not an invitation to start buying Nov. call options like crazy). I have done a ton of qualitative research and this quarter has to be really good for everyone.

    The only way SPWR goes down after earnings is if they have incompetent management.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SPWR Earnings Today after Market Close

    SPWR is announcing earnings today after market close. The stock is up 100% since I started recommending it here in June. I know that a lot of people here have been spoiled by TSLA, but just wanted to remind you guys that stocks don't normally double in a few short months. The average time it takes a stock to double is 7-10 years.

    I am very excited to learn what kind of growth strategy they have come up with. I have posted my Q3 earnings preview article this morning with link below.

    I can't imagine another Q2 happening. For those with short memories, Q1 was the exact opposite and SPWR doubled in a month after Q1 earnings. The stock has also rebounded 70% after the 25% post Q2 decline.

    This is a testament to how irrational the markets can be. That is why I always recommend to buy and hold solar stocks if you are interested in investing in the sector.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks for the preview, sleepyhead.

    Some news out of CSIQ this am:

    http://investors.canadiansolar.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=196781&p=irol-newsArticle_print&ID=1870012

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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I totally agree. If they didn't get the message after the last earnings they never will. However I don't know enough about panel manufacturing and I worry that increasing capacity might be a harder problem than we think it is. They might need more time to put the pieces all together. Wouldn't they have announced any major expansion plan before the earnings call? Does it make any sense to wait until now with any major announcement?

    Still I would be shocked if they won't at least announce some future roadmap or something similar (at that point the market would be justified to just kill the stock). Of course even if they announce something the market might still not like the timeframe of their plan and tank anyway.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is all true, but they said on last CC that they might have an answer on this CC.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    price action on SPWR is looking very weak.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I wouldn't read too much into it (unless somehow, there is an earnings leak). The markets, for the most part, are down today, along with most of the high fliers and all of the solar sector. Let's see what earnings and guidance look like later today.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Once again, every solar is getting crushed pretty heavily. Every solar stock of the 6 or so I checked is lower than it was a month ago, except CSIQ despite also being down lately. My December SOL 6's actually have zero value now :(, no bids in a while and the ask is a shiny nickel.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't know what chart you are looking at but on the 1-month chart SPWR is up 25% and CSIQ is up 35%. JASO, SOL, and JKS almost at break even, only down 5% - 10%.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I wouldn't read into it either.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That is because everyone else knows its junk. i hope you paid very little for it and are a lucky SOB when it comes to earnings.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    ckessel,

    volatility is is the norm in the solar sector, so it is expected to fluctuate greatly. I would strongly take sleepy's advice when it comes to investing in solar: either buy shares or LEAPS. The closest expiration I have in solar is march 2014 for jks (which I bought recently before the June expiration became available) and I am nervous holding them, as I would like to roll to June as soon as possible.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    ckessel, I am sorry for all of your paper losses. I still think there is a tiny chance for you to recover on some of your options. It will require a blowout from SPWR to begin with.

    If you don't recover, then I am going to use you as a case study why it is a bad idea to buy options in solar. That is why I have been recommending shares, or LEAPS if you really want to go the options route. Unfortunately, hardly any of the solars offer LEAPS, or are prohibitively expensive.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Didn't look at SPWR, yea it's up.

    Otherwise, all down from 30 days ago. Some down by not much as you noted, but negative.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Well, recover or not, probably still a good example.

    What hurts is it's nearly everything that's been hit and it all went south at almost exactly the same time starting ~3-4 weeks ago, which is precisely when I tried to diversify out of just TSLA stock. It's the conjunction of all stocks dropping and all doing it at the same time that's been the killer. Even if they'd all dropped, if it'd been more staggered some options would have been ok, some bad, some I could have reallocated. I'd still have losses, but the conjunction of the timing really magnifies it.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    With a few bad treads and the solar hit i am only a few ks above where i started 6 months ago. My only Green right now is solars though. (options portfolio)

    - - - Updated - - -

    SPWR beats, very little AH action, people might be waiting for the CC to make any major moves. (talking about volume)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sunpower (NASDAQ: SPWR) reported Q3 EPS of $0.44, $0.19 better than the analyst estimate of $0.25. Revenue for the quarter came in at $657 million versus the consensus estimate of $583.24 million.

    Sunpower sees Q4 2013 EPS of $0.15-$0.35, versus the consensus of $0.28. Sunpower sees Q4 2013 revenue of $675-725 million, versus the consensus of $723.3 million.

    That to me is a nice beat, but weak guidance... So the result might be mixed and probably means indeed everyone is waiting for the CC.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ya lets hope. Its not even back over how much it lost today.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The way I understand it is it sounds like SPWRs biggest issue is this fab plant won't be fully online for a while. They will be able to increase capacity some but are mostly going to be production constrained most of 2014.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yup, which is exactly what i said i saw happening. I dumped most of my options mid day today, kept my Jan 15 LEAPS.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Alright guys, here's SPWR's Q3 earning call transcript:
    SunPower Corporation (SPWR): SunPower Management Discusses Q3 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript - Seeking Alpha

    SPWR Q3 earnings slides: http://investors.sunpowercorp.com/common/download/download.cfm?companyid=SPWR&fileid=701503&filekey=95e5eaa2-7ee0-4873-a9f8-61c14ad3f68d&filename=Q3%202013%20Supplementary%20Slides%20Final.pdf

    SPWR Q3 supplemental data: http://investors.sunpowercorp.com/common/download/download.cfm?companyid=SPWR&fileid=701504&filekey=1e1a2208-5507-4557-82db-f324cc96c548&filename=Q3%202013%20Supplementary%20Metric%20Sheet%20Final.pdf

    Here's my quick take. I thought it was okay to pretty good. Their Q3 results were impressive and their FY 2013 non-GAAP estimates of $1.30-1.50 eps is impressive. The challenge with SPWR (and other manufacturers) is that it's difficult to ramp production quickly. It's going to take them 3 years to ramp for 1.2 GW capacity to 1.6 GW capacity. The growth investor will likely want to see more aggressive ramping than that since their revenues will likely track their capacity. 2014 guidance seems very similar to this year. So, again the exciting ramping of growth is missing. Overall though, SPWR is positioning themselves as a very strong player in the U.S. and global solar market. They have a strong pipeline and have lots of cash on hand to fund their growth. The challenge is with limited capacity ramping ability it's difficult to give them a high growth P/E multiple.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So it looks like SPWR is a year or two away from any real stock growth.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I wouldn't say that because they could surprise in coming quarters with higher-than-expected gross margin, higher earnings, or even a bigger pipeline of projects. They also have a high short interest. So, the stock could move (in either direction) based off of sentiment and momentum.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Any reason for the short interest? They're making money and even if they don't have big growth, they don't look in danger of dying.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm not sure. But there was a time not too long ago where it seemed solar was stagnant and lots of solar companies would go bankrupt because of debt and oversupply. It's likely shorts aren't impressed by solar's future (ie, they're loyal to coal and natural gas).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The stock will not stay flat and then start to grow quickly. The market prices these things in gradually, so I expect a steady climb for SPWR to the $40-$50 range next year and then $60 two years from now if they execute on their strategy. If you wait till next year to buy SPWR then you will probably have to pay more for the stock, and it is not likely that the stock will start going crazy next year. SPWR is becoming a more mature company and the easy money was to be made this year.

    If SPWR does reach $60 in 2 years, that is still an awesome result because stocks don't normally double every two years.

    In the short run there might be a big pullback in SPWR, but I am not sure that is actually going to happen. I liked the results a lot, the only thing I am disappointed in is that the growth will not come super fast, so the stock probably won't double in the next few months. The company will grow gradually and so will the stock price.

    People dismissed a lot of other important factors they mentioned on the CC. E.g. someone asked why residential leases are slowing down and SPWR answered that basically they can pick and choose where to send the panels, and they want to be geographically diversified. So you have to remember that there are positive sides of being sold out, such as charging more, and having the opportunity to decide whom to sell the panels and/or systems.

    They also mentioned on the call that they will be doing more C7's next year; and this makes a lot of sense to me. Even though they have 1.2GW of capacity, they could hypothetically get close to 5GW thanks to their concentrated product. Since they are maxed out, why not push for more C7 sales. If only 10% of their panels go into C7 next year, then instead of 1.3GW's, you will get 1.7GW's. Don't know if 10% is doable (for 500MW after concentration), probably not next year, but if they really push the product there is still a lot of high growth that can happen in a short period of time.

    Overall, I see this CC as very positive for the buy and hold investor. SPWR is profitable at $1.5/share this year. Unfortunately, they gave low guidance for 2014 of "at least $1/share". Since they are sold out and made $1.50 this year, I would hope that they can do at least $2 next year. Sandbagging will not help the stock price in the near future, but does prevent bubble-like pricing, so that is a good thing for shareholders.

    They also had (on their May analyst day presentation) a goal to reduce x-series panel costs by 35% by 2015 and to make them 5%-10% more efficient. That should give them a good GM boost especially since ASP's have stopped going down worldwide. Cost cutting alone should help the bottom line next year, since they even said that they exceeded their cost cutting targets for Q3; as they always do.

    It is still a growth stock in a growth industry. They said that they reached over $200m of positive cash flow in the first 9 months of this year, with a weaker Q1. So they can probably do $300m - $400m free cash flow in 2014. The new fab4 will only cost them $200m, so they could build two new ones with the cash they make next if they needed to (of course this won't happen, but just shows how easy it is for them to grow with internally generated cash).

    One thing is for sure, and that is: solar is the future. I like SPWR a lot and I think it is a great buy for the buy and hold investor. SPWR was able to achieve all this in a year where global demand will be ~37GW, and the first half had soft industry conditions. Next year demand estimates are showing 45GW - 55GW, and these are based on what individual countries have targets for. The demand estimate for 2013 was as little as 31GW just 6 months ago, now it is up to 37GW. No telling what next year's demand will actually turn out to be, but as long as the global economy continues to expand, I think that 45GW will turn out to be too low.

    - - - Updated - - -

    The difference between SPWR and TSLA is that TSLA is expected to grow at 100% per year and is priced for that growth rate. If TSLA only grows 80% per year, the stock might go down a lot. Whereas SPWR is priced to grow 15%-20% per year. If they can deliver 30% growth, the stock might double in a short period of time.

    Numbers are only for illustrative purposes, but my point is that many people here got spoiled by TSLA the stock and the company's growth rates, that they are quick to dismiss any company that isn't growing at a 50%+ annual rate.

    All growth stocks are priced according to the markets expectations of that growth. If you think that a company can exceed the market's growth assumption then you should invest in that company. I think that SPWR has a better chance of exceeding the market's growth assumption than TSLA does. And I like TSLA a lot, so I like SPWR a little more.

    SPWR is trading on 20X this years earnings. The S&P is now around 16x this years earnings. TSLA is still trading on 100x next year's earnings (will probably turn out to be a little less in reality, but that is analyst consensus). So even though SPWR has a slight growth premium built into the stock price, it really isn't that big of a premium. As long as they execute there will be a floor on the stock price. I am still very bullish on the company and the industry.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks sleepyhead. Sounds good. My Nov16th options are going to hurt since SPWR is down heavily premarket. I bought the options a few weeks ago and without looking at when the earnings call was at the time, so they purchased weren't with that purpose. At the time I was under the confusion that a "short term" option meant weeklies, so I bought a "longer term" option at about 5-6 weeks out. Not nearly long enough, but I didn't realize what people meant by short and long term when it comes to options at that point.

    I've got til the 16th, so hopefully SPWR will rise when solar in general spikes and I can get out with enough to make it worth reevaluating for a stock/LEAP purchase. Doing that for all my options I suppose.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    In reading the CC, the CEO mentioned several times they prefer markets with few subsides and no favorable policy. It seems the US is slower to catch on to solar than the rest of the world. I'm guessing this is due in part to having cheaper coal and in part solar has a stigma of being expensive and for greenies. It will be interesting to see when that perception changes in the US.

    Thanks for the great insight, Sleepy.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well thanks to SPWR report and mixed feelings by Wall str, the whole solar sector is suffering today :) Stocks are down -2..-10% across the board.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yea, disappointing. Timing is everything. If I'd gotten in 6 weeks ago around 9/20 then the last couple weeks of steady decline would just be unfortunate, but options would all be well in the green. I got in just 10 days later and given the premiums it's a very different picture. Unless you've got some sort of inside info, it really highlights how pointless it is to time the market.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well I used many of Sleepys good entry ideas where we had confirmation of breakout about to happen (got in CSIQ just as the $16.5 was broken). So I do have some like SCTY and CSIQ that are still nicely in the green as well as some that are relatively flat (SOL, STRI) and some of course where I could have entered earlier (JASO, JKS) and now got some small loss in SPWR, but overall my solar holdings (all options, all LEAPs or March 2014) are in the green because SCTY and CSIQ are my biggest holdings and third biggest SPWR is right now only slightly in the red (got in early enough).

    I'm far far more in the red with TSLA various options and have to just hope that we get to $190 post ER to get into green.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    TSLA options are about 1/2 of my short term investment money. Amusingly enough, part of why I diversified into multiple solar options (and KNDI) rather than just Tesla was to diversify so that I wouldn't lose all my short term investment money if TSLA turned south. Yes, that was a cunning plan :rolleyes:

    JKS seems to be bucking the solar trend today.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    i bought some more JASO this morning with the cash i pulled out of SPWR yesterday.

    playing with the idea of dropping a large chunk of capitol (for me)on SOL stock. it should at least double in a year's time. Then i can play with covered options on the side
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So my 50/50 goal was reached a few days ago but not in the way I had intended it to happen. Tsla has dropped more than my solar holdings so now I have more solar than tesla.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That is the beauty of diversification. Keep us updated on how the proportions change over time.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    I am very positive on SPWR after skimming the earnings. I sold in the money puts out a few months- i think it will recover what it has lost, i think it will be trading around 34 until the next earnings. (dec 33 puts for 4.85 if anyone cares)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I liked the earnings too. Everybody is focusing on the "soft" guidance. Whoopydoo! They always give soft guidance:

    Q2 guided towards $0.05-0.20 EPS. Actual $0.48

    Q3 guided towards $0.15-0.35 EPS. Actual $0.44

    Q4 guided towards $0.15-0.35 EPS. Actual...

    I think you get the drift.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Massive strengt here, SPWR might end up in the green today if this continues..
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree with most of what the author writes. I think SPWR is one of the strongest solar players out there and will likely continue to grow as solar grows. The two items of concern for me long-term for SPWR that might limit their growth is:
    1. Lack of market focus - as the author points out, they're in utility, commercial and residential. I'd say that it's tough to do all those markets well. On the flip side, they could pull resources toward the markets that do well.
    2. Lack of super high-growth - capacity limits them and while expanding to Fab4 helps increase capacity by 35%, it still won't be realized until 3 years from now. It's tough to give a very high multiple to a company that's restrained in growth.

    These two reasons are why I'm more bullish on SCTY long-term. SCTY is one of the most focused solar companies out there. They're focused on the residential market in the U.S. in the states where it makes the most economical sense to go solar right now (and they're expanding as the value proposition for solar grows with reduced costs). Eventually, they'll go international IMO but to scale a company I prefer the initial laser focus approach that SCTY has. It shows a lot of promise. Also, SCTY is growing installs at a 100% YOY rate and will likely continue this growth rate over the next few years. This is truly amazing. And they claim they're on a path to get 1 million customers within 5 years. SPWR, FSLR, Tier 1 Chinese solars - nobody can match the growth rate of SCTY, or even come close. In the short and mid-term, who knows where SCTY will trade because it'll be volatile as the whole solar industry tends to be. But I'm bullish long-term on solar and while I think SPWR and others will do well, I just think SCTY is in a different league.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    i feel dumb for selling my FSLR at loss this morning thinking it would tank with tonight earnings, bought an extra 200 shares after hours, tomorrow (and the following weeks) are looking green for solar again. SPWR up 2% AH too!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nice win for FSLR
    Sleepy i know we dont fallow FSLR much due to their tech and larger market cap, but do you think this push above 50 might start a cup break out?
    Options are priced pretty high for big run this coming year
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I find it funny that we think almost exactly alike on TSLA but have opposite views on solar; that is the great thing about the stock market, it keeps score to see who was right. Where you see weakness, I see strength and vice versa:

    1. You say "lack of market focus", I say "diverse strategy that allows flexibility to take advantage of market economics." As you heard on the SPWR CC, when CEO was asked why residential leases went down QoQ, he said because they chose to go elsewhere with their panels. They are able to decide what market gives them the best economics and quickly shift focus to take advantage of short-term market conditions. They can go from country to country, or they can go from residential to commercial to utility scale. Look at Renesola: they had 13% of sales from the US in Q2 and are projecting 33% from US in Q3, that is how quickly they were able to shift to take advantage of higher ASP's in the US.

    2. Growth for SCTY is already priced in. They are going to deploy under 300MW's this year and 450 next year, but they have a higher market cap than SPWR of 4.5b (plus whatever dilution the recent secondary will bring). Jinko Solar has a market cap that is 8x smaller, yet will deploy 3x as much MW's. Same goes for all other Chinese solars.

    You also tend to ignore the big risks for SCTY, such:

    -Net metering going away
    -30% federal tax credit going away beginning 2016
    -Their need to borrow $billions to finance their operations if not tens of $billions per year as they grow.
    -Panel shortage coming up in 2014, which will lead to higher ASP's. SCTY will either have to pay more or buy from less reputable sources.
    -How long will these Chinese panels really last? SCTY is banking that they will last more than 20 years, but it is unproven technology that has only been out a few years. If all of these panels start to fall apart after 10 years then the company will go bankrupt. They are putting a lot of faith into Chinese manufacturing. SPWR panels on the other hand are of highest quality and will last the longest with least amount of degradation.
    -Companies are coming out with $0 down solar purchases instead of leases. Why somebody would want to lease a system is beyond my comprehension. Not only do you give all of the financial benefit to SCTY, but it also becomes a huge liability when you sell your house.

    I have read an article just the other day that says that the Chinese manufacturers are deciding not to send panels to the US in current Q4, because there is so much demand for solar in China that they are shipping everything locally. Projects have to be completed by year end to take advantage of FIT. Chinese demand will be high enough in 2014 to soak up 50% of tier 1 panel supply. What if China decides to install more PV? There will be nothing left for SCTY.

    And last of all, I still can't get around SCTY's valuation. It is already pricing in 2017 or 2020 installations, but there is no certainty that the company will be able to grow that fast. It is kind of like TSLA, but with TSLA there is much less uncertainty.

    I just don't see SCTY as a great risk/reward play. There is a good chance that you will turn out to be right on SCTY, but there is just way too much risk in my opinion. There are many smart people that think SCTY's business model will not thrive in 5 years. I know that SPWR is a lot lower risk and still has potential for great return. In my opinion SPWR is the best risk/reward play in the solar sector. The Chinese stocks are good if you want to make a quick buck, but don't mind losing 30% in a few days every now and then. SCTY, might just turn out to be a $20bn market cap in 2020, but it might go to $0 as well. SPWR might get to $10b - $15b in 2020, but it will not go to $0; and I am fairly certain it will be above today's price unless their is a technological advancement that makes them obsolete; but by that time they will have enough cash to take advantage of new technologies.

    I just see SPWR as a much safer play that could still yield very high rewards over the next few years.

    I can kind of see the cup with handle that you are talking about, but FSLR needs to go up 15% to break out of it, and as much as I would like to see that happen tomorrow, it probably won't. But if we have a strong follow-up week next week then it can happen. FSLR is up 7.5% AH, but tomorrow is a whole new day; I actually wouldn't be surprised to see this stock go up 15%-20% tomorrow. I would be a buyer if I were sitting on the sidelines. Icahn must be happy.

    But with great results from SPWR and great results from FSLR, I feel like this might be the start of another solar rally. I just hope that the general market doesn't decide to correct after this rally we had. I think that when you combine FSLR's and SPWR's earnings the market will definitely take notice and I wouldn't be surprised to see some institutional money start pouring in to this sector over the next few days. I am hopeful that CSIQ decides to announce earnings next week, because they are going to be great as well; that would really light a fire under these solar stocks.

    I would like to hear what the analysts have to say on SPWR and FSLR earnings. Can someone please post some of the analyst comments here if you have access to them?

    I am bullish all the way on solar, and it is only getting started.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hey sleepyhead, would love to ask you some more in-depth questions via video chat (ie., Google hangout). Would you be available this weekend (maybe Sun evening?)? We could share the hangout url with folks here as well so they can join in.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Please do share!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    indeed, it would be great.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Definitely :)

    I would be interested in this as well.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    +1 i am am not busy
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    CSIQ touched $25.5 premarket because of the 100MW plant announcement?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    All solars up, and the only catalyst I can see was FSLR's ER. CSIQ is riding higher than the rest though.

    +1 for an evening with DaveT and Sleepyhead, I'll be busy carving a pumpkin.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The solars seem to move in a herd (school? pack?). Big hugs to the CSIQ in my portfolio as it typically drops the least and rises the most. It's my favorite of my solar children. Don't tell the others.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Fixed it for you. Glad I stuck to shares for CSIQ and SPWR. My soon to expire JASO calls are being put up for adoption.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    CSIQ is a monster
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Alternative Energy Investor Discussions (formerly SCTY thread)

    Got CSIQ Jan 15 $35 calls two days ago. On that day it was down 9% when I bought in. No-brainer.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Why is Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ) considered a Chinese company?

    I have been researching it and although it does have the bulk of its manufacturing done in China, its head office is in Guelph, Ontario and it was founded in Toronto, Ontario. Even on its own website (Overview) it says "Canadian Solar is a Canadian Company with Global Reach". The site of manufacturing doesn't equate to the country of origin of a company (ie. Nike is not considered a Chinese company). Maybe it doesn't really matter much, but I am Canadian and grew up in Guelph so there is an element of pride for me! :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I asked this same question recently but didn't see an answer. I'd be interested to hear from sleepy on this one.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    DaveT - send me a pm with your gmail, so that we can exchange info.

    I am actually going to Miami tomorrow for the whole week, so I am not sure if I will be able to sit down and chat. We can try to do it this Sunday, but I can't commit yet.

    Next Sunday would be better, but if you wanted to talk TSLA as well then it will be better to do it now obviously. I might be able to work something out, will see once I get there tomorrow.

    As far as SCTY goes, I am not saying that it will fail. I never really researched the company in depth, because I think it is too risky, volatile, unpredictable, and impossible to value. You know a lot more about SCTY than anyone here, so I am sure that you have a great grasp on their opportunities.

    I only have a limited amount of time to devote my research to, so I made a conscious choice to stay away from SCTY (for the reasons I mentioned) and from FSLR, since I am not a fan of their technology. To be honest both of these companies are one-trick ponies and I prefer the more diverse crystalline module producers, power plant builders, residential and commercial suppliers, etc.

    I made a conscious choice because that is where I think the future will be. SCTY may still turn out to be the biggest winner, but I feel that the other stocks are a lot safer. Ben Kallo from Baird also thinks that SPWR is the best choice. So does Travis Hoium from Motley Fool, who has been on top of solar this whole year.

    Quite frankly if I wanted to win our bet, I would have chosen CSIQ or JKS. I am 90% sure that those two stocks will have a greater return than SCTY. I am only 70% sure that SPWR will, but SPWR vs. SCTY is more fair and can go either way.

    - - - Updated - - -

    FSLR finished up 17.5%, and that is what I thought it deserved; the ER was good for a 5% gain, but the 250 MW power plant sale is what really mattered and that accounted for at least 10%, since it shows that FSLR can sign new big power plant deals. I actually didn't think that the market would take it that far, but I am glad it did (even though I don't have any FSLR exposure). It deserves a much higher valuation than it currently has.

    The media got this one completely wrong imo, since they focused on the ER results instead of what really matters. The market was giving FSLR a low PE of 10x, because it didn't believe that FSLR can get competitive deals in the future. That it was clearing out its backlog and would run out of projects eventually. It will probably now go to a more respectable PE of 16x - 20x within the next year; especially if it can sign more deals.

    Let's hope that SCTY has great results next week.

    Great times ahead for solar. I am really excited about the future. Feels a lot better than investing in XOM (a company in a dying industry), PM (a company that helps people die), FB (a company with a dying share price), or BBY (a dying company). The outsized returns just make you feel even better.

    The solar train is about to leave the station.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    CSIQ = awesomeness

    Then I looked at JASO. What happened here? Did somebody fat finger? nezyhu4y.jpg
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Alternative Energy Investor Discussions (formerly SCTY thread)

    Wow. Csiq's preliminary report is fantastic! They doubled their gross margins!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    lets how for good guidance during the report. just because results are good doesnt mean they wont mess up guidance and still tank the stock during the ER
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    JASO seems to have pretty good momentum as well. Now if only SOL would wake up.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Pre-market:

    CSIQ: +5.6%
    JASO: +3%
    JKS: +4.3%
    SCTY: +2.8%
    SOL: +4%
    SPWR: +3.3%
    FSLR: +1%

    At least the pre-market is looking nice and green ;) That's the list of stocks I hold my eye on and most have some stake in them as well.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Pre-earnings report? Are you joking?

    I sold half my CSIQ on Friday to strengthen my TSLA earnings play, so of course on Monday they would announce pre-earnings haha. At least I still have half :)

    But seriously, who does that? Pre-earnings?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Man... why am I missing out on the CSIQ train... oh right tomorrow is Nov. 5
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And BOOM.

    Good day to be long SCTY and CSIQ......
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good day to be long in any Solar pretty much ;) Half of my portfolios gains today are from Solar sector where I have only one third of my initial portfolio invested. The other half is TSLA recovery ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Feeling good about that lot of CSIQ Jan14 25's I bought at $1.45 :biggrin: Thanks Sleepy et. al.

    Since they released a preliminary report that looks very positive, is the good report already baked into the price? Or should we still see another jump after the report?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SCTY is up on the financing deal they just announced. I don't think the market understands just how well the Musk family can get creative about financing. Or maybe it's all Elon, but in any case, it's like the third or fourth string to his bow, after creativity, engineering and execution.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SCTY just needs to secure a good stream of financing deals and supplies.......... demand doesn't sound like much of a problem right now so everytime one of those barriers fall a little the stock soars.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Solar City can be hurt by one thing, and it shouldn't be glossed over: Net-Metering Policy reform.

    I havent seen it discussed much as one of the risks as investing in Solar City.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Man... at what point would I get in.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    At this point all I can say is "thanks Sleepy!"

    I have always been a bull in solar but because of your fantastic in depth analysis I became a huge bull.

    If zoning would let me (I'm already maxed out with what they allow on the ground) I could put in enough solar to power our Tesla 100% from today's paper gains. :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Absolutely.....but will it really be a factor in the long run? Also I don't see it happening any time soon.... some lobbies might push for it....but any change would face strong opposition from the public (I think/hope).
    I think the worst case scenario is that the prices for reselling the energy are lowered a bit (probably is fair after all)... but nothing more than that. Would you agree?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    I think it's also worth mentioning that with the acquisition of Zep Solar, it looks like as SCTY grows they will be trying to diversify away some of their risk. I wouldn't be surprised to see more strategic moves in the near future that will diversify away risk associated with residential leasing.

    Thanks again, Sleepy.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't think the pre-earnings report is "baked in" the stock price. I think CSIQ will go up on the earnings annoucement on the 13th.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree if they get guidance correct.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looks like CSIQ is stuck at $29... Made several attempts to break it
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Does anyone hold JKS ? I got in when all solar stocks tanked 20-25% last week and looking at 18% profit now, wondering if I should take the money and exit. @ 26
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    wow.....my portfolio is up 30%......and I still see some upside as all the ERs come in......thanks to all the contributors to this section (especially you, sleepy....as always).... and congrats to all who have had the courage to pull the trigger during difficult times.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have some- bought at $24.85 just before the dip unfortunately. I'm holding long term along with all solar positions- but in fairness this is just a small stock position; can't advise well on the exit strategies for cycle plays
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I just sold at 25.85, it may go higher pre ER but I thought 18% was good enough for me for my first play in solar.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You were holding stock? That was a bad move. Buy and hold would of netted out alot more in a year in the long run.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I picked up some last week on the unexplainable dip and sold today for 18% over the week, new to solar, and I don't trade options(yet, limited understanding but learning slowly). Could have held long but my limited understanding of the chinese solar stocks made me decide otherwise..
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Can't complain about taking profits. That's 18% more than you had before and it's solid. Awesome job!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    @Sleepy,
    Do you think CSIQ will break $30 on earnings.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SCTY is almost up 20%.....this recent run up has been great....but this is a bit too fast for my taste.....could this be driven by a short squeeze?

    The company should have less than 10% of short interest...7,329,674 shares are sold short vs "Shares Outstanding (M) 82.19" (source nasdaq & yahoo). I'm not sure how much of it is owned by the Musks and other insiders who are presumably in it for the long run and reduce the float.

    Earnings are in 2 days... and SCTY will probably feel the effects of TSLA's ER.... a lot of volatility ahead.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SPWR down 10% in after hours, completely erasing today's gains. Anyone have any clue why?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not sure what you're smoking, must be good, haha. Yahoo still has it green, up 14cents. Probably a glitch on your site.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Google finance earlier showerd -10%
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yup, just looked at NASDAQ's site.

    Some poor sap sold 600 shares at $30.87
    Sucks to be him. Its back to where it should be now.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Probably a late trade from earlier in the day, right?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I dont know how many of you are still in JASO but after looking at today's chart, tomorrow could get ridiculous. Sleepy's $11 breakout level is looking like a heavy one. That is all.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I've got some whimsical calls I've been trying to offload to no avail. I'm no chartist though, can you explain why JASO at the $11 breakout level is so significant? I'll check some of sleepy's posts/blog in the meantime.

    For the record, these calls are an insignificant amount of my portfolio. I went heavy on shares for CSIQ and SPWR for my solar plays.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Read up on Sleepy's blog for the full story.

    Nutshell: $11 is the rounded breakout point. It gets through $11 on high volume and moves up convincingly from the $11 point it will signal a breakout and the algros might jump in on the stock like mad.

    It broke it a few weeks back the day before the solar sector took a multi day hit, so it never had a chance to fully materialize.
    With the above average volume today and the $11 holding very strong, a break out through it should be a pretty large move upwards since the resistance is so strong.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    While I am mostly long on SCTY, JKS, and CSIQ...I do have March $14 call options on JASO..and am looking forward to a potential breakout. Those calls were cheap but are still slightly 'in the red'.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Probably a newbie placing a market order after hours.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I talked about this several times (most recently on Friday, just about 4 pages back in a "megapost"), but everyone always ignores the topic. For this reason (as well as other risks) I ignore SCTY. Whether I am right or wrong, I really don't care (other than I want the $1 from DaveT) because there are a lot of safer plays in solar imo.

    I think so too. When you pre-announce bad news you spill all the beans. When you pre-announce good earnings, you only give half the story.

    Guidance should be really, really good. The only potential negative might be if they guide towards slightly lower gross margin than what they achieved in Q3. But that is no reason for a sell-off; the market isn't that stupid. They went from 12% to 20%, so if they guide towards 18% then the market should be extremely happy. There is no fast rule that you have to grow every quarter. They will grow MW's shipped significantly in Q4.

    Great job on your short term trade. I would have held on. Their Q3 will be really good: 20%+ gross margin and $0.50 EPS. Stock is cheap, but Wall St. has no clue.

    Considering that on Oct. 3 I put 5% of my portfolio into the Nov. $28 calls at $0.31 when CSIQ was at $19, and the next day I put 10% of my portfolio into Nov. $29 calls at $0.29. Then a week later I opened a new portfolio (after taking out a loan against my 401k) and immediately put 15% of it into CSIQ Nov. $27 calls at $0.32 with CSIQ still at $19. I sold a little bit of those positions (but only to buy some TSLA options today and yesterday) but still have a good majority and plan on holding till next week.

    So I would say that my investment thesis hasn't changed since last month. CSIQ is still undervalued. It might cross $30 tomorrow. It might also go back to $26, but that will only create a buying opportunity for those who missed.

    I am not a fan of discussing after hour trades at all (cause for unwarranted panic or euphoria) unless it is based on a news story or event and has very high volume. Other than than pre-market a few minutes before market open has some value.

    The new breakout target is $11.60, so it has to go above $11.70 on high volume. JASO will not double just because the chart says so. It will need some kind of great news, such as a pre-announcement or great ER. Breakout plays need catalysts and JASO has been sitting too quiet. This is the time to be accumulating and wait patiently. It might not happen until early 2014, but it might happen tomorrow. I would rather be in early and have a huge exposure to JASO; about 25% of my portfolios. It's day will come and I am very patient.

    Because it worked for every other solar stock this year. It will work for JASO as well unless their is some kind of black swan, extreme bad luck or mgmt. incompetence.

    If you have Dec or better yet March or June calls then hang on tight. If they are Nov. calls then you are gambling by buying them (even Dec is gambling, but gives you one ER to play with).

    This.
    �
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