Thứ Hai, 31 tháng 10, 2016

Alternative Energy Investor Discussions part 19

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sleepyhead, how do you decide on what strike price to get? Buying CSIQ $29 when it's at $19 is obviously expecting huge movement in a pretty small time frame.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Lots and lots of research. And then some more research. Experience working as an analyst in investment banking on different continents. Financial training and certifications. Education, MBA courses in running a hedge fund, investment theory and practice, etc. Bachelors and masters degree in accounting to be able to read financial statements and to interpret data. Very good math skills are a must as well; most importantly the ability to perform complex math equations in your head instantly without making any errors (that can cost you a lot of money); probably most important skill to have if you want to take advantage of of very short but irrational market movements.

    And then do a lot more research. Find out what Wall St. knows, and then figure out how long it will take them to figure out the truth (in this case on solar). What will be the catalyst or catalysts? Why now? Why haven't they figured it out last month, what makes you so sure they will figure it out this time around?

    Understand the global economy, politics (ugh), and know where the markets are going to go in the near future. Why does Nikkei tank when Bernanke farts? You have to have a grasp on global markets. Read, read, read. Analyze data. Why did x cause y?

    You have to come up with a solid investment thesis based on your research with iron clad evidence, believe in your story and then develop an investment strategy; one that is flexible that allows you to react to changing market conditions. Know your exit strategies. And then stick to your strategy no matter what.

    Be prepared to have an exit if it turns out you are wrong. What to do if it is taking Wall St. a lot longer to figure it out than you thought it would take? How to stay rational when markets are irrational? Live to fight another day if you are wrong. Re-group and then remind yourself of your strategy and stick to it. Continue executing no matter how hard it may seem. The moment you abandon your strategy you will lose.

    And then you will need a ton of luck when playing options. No matter how much you know, the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. You will need a ton of luck when playing options. Market timing skills are critical (but allegedly nobody has such skills).

    CSIQ can still go down 5% by the end of next week and I will lose all of the money invested in those options. I took enough profits that I made a big return already, but my other huge paper profits can get wiped out by a measly 5% move over the next 2 weeks. You need a lot of luck.

    I can't tell you which options to buy, what strike price or what expiration month. Everybody's investment strategy and style is different and everybody should be buying different options based on their style.

    You have to come up with an investment style that matches your personality. Otherwise you will fail. If you buy the same options that I do, we will have completely different results since your strategy is completely different than mine. That even happened two weeks ago. I bought some TSLA weeklies and someone on TMC followed me into the trade. I made a 50% return in an hour and cashed out (very luckily at the top) and the other person lost all of his investment at market close (it was expiration day).

    Read, read, read. Look at DaveT and how much he reads. He reads books on investing. I read articles on companies, blogs, Chinese websites, forums, etc. We both read company press releases and official documents. He reads prospectuses, and other boring documents which would put me to sleep. I look at charts and examine the past. But we both read a lot, and have our own investment styles based on our personalities.

    I look at a lot of charts and use technical analysis. I don't know what a MACD is and can't be bothered to find out. I don't use SMA's or bollinger bands hardly at all. I don't use any technical indicators, but still read charts my own way that I developed myself with experience. I experiment a lot in the markets. And treat my brokerage account balance like monopoly money in order to make correct investment decisions no matter how hard they are.

    Sell when others are greedy and buy when everyone is fearful; especially when you have a really, really bad feeling you should be buying and taking on a lot of risk when things are looking really ugly. Have a plan to buy more when things get uglier; be able to raise capital quickly. Plan for these things in advance. Don't be afraid to take profits.

    And then you still need a lot of luck.

    Nobody can tell you what options to buy. You have to determine that on your own based on your investment strategy.

    Sorry if this wasn't helpful. But my point is that you have to treat it like a full-time job if you want to be successful. I am still learning and nowhere near successful yet. I have had a lot of luck recently, but that streak will reverse in the future; and you have to be prepared for that mentally. But if I stick to my strategy, I should be ok. As long as the brokerage balance is trending in the right direction, you are doing something right.

    It really requires a lot of luck assuming that you know the company, industry, and global economy inside and out. If you don't have a good grasp on all three things then you shouldn't be buying options because you are just gambling.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I got in JASO along with JKS last week after reading sleepyhead's blog (thanks for all the informative posts and knowledge/experience sharing). Sold JKS today at 18%, still holding JASO and up 8% over the week. I have an relatively small amount in JASO and not eyeing a long term position for now, if I get ~20% upside, I am out
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If you get 20% upside then you are looking at a ~$12.20 stock price and will probably turn out to be the worst time to sell as the stock takes off from there. But 20% in the bank is better than hoping for more that might never materialize.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks sleepyhead. Sounds sort of like the equivalent of the answer I gave a junior engineer when he asked how I decide to breakdown a software design. Experience, education, and tons of time studying the domain.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Use your engineering knowledge to gain an edge in the markets. Find some engineering companies, ideas, solutions, products, etc. that will transform the world. Be an early visionary and then invest in the company and stick to your strategy. Continually evaluate that company to make sure that your fundamental thesis hasn't changed and stick to it until the market finally figures it out.

    That is how I started with solar. In spring 2012 I started studying solar and SPWR significantly. I quickly realized the huge opportunity so I bought SPWR. For the next 6 months I kept buying on the way down as SPWR went from $7 to $3.90. I kept buying, because I knew I would be right and didn't care how long it would take before proven correct, because I knew the stock was so cheap that I will get rewarded handsomely eventually (this is the case with JASO right now imo). My 401k was down in 2012 by 18% because of this, while the S&P 500 had a stellar year. I didn't care because I was getting a lot of SPWR shares really cheap. This year my 401k is up 400%, because I was patient and stuck to my strategy.

    Use your skills to find opportunities in the market. With your engineering skills you have an opportunity to exploit industries that I could only dream of understanding (and that is why I ignore them).

    Use your strengths to gain an edge in the market.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks Sleepy...always love the rational/solvent quote and the Buffett fear/greed. I also appreciate that you encourage people to go to the beach and enjoy the same sun that shone on their portfolios today. Take in a show...don't check stock quotes for hours....or minutes....or days.

    October was my reversal....went into it up 1500% since May all in Tesla....exited up 1000%..finally discovered this alternative energy thread - and CSIQ & SPWR & JKS (and SCTY :wink:). Followed your leads and dove deep. Bought JKS shares at 25.1, rode down 20% then bought June 2014 options and rode back up. Bought SPWR options pre-earnings, rode down, read the report and listened to the conference call then doubled down on my Jan 2015 calls at the bottom. I appreciate your thoughtful greed and your educated disdain for "analysts". I am beginning to suss out my own rules...weeklies are for rubes and a quick way to offset large short-term capital gains...investments that make you money that you can believe in are the best revenge...there are advantages to independent research and crowd sourcing thoughts and ideas.

    In addition to my core shares I bought a small 10 contract Jan 15 Tesla option today around 10am. I'm not as sanguine as you about Q3 earnings, mainly because of the ZEV credits Tesla carried over in the October report....but watch out for Q4.

    Thanks for your posts, your thoughts and your observations that go beyond....should I buy a_____call @ ______ for ____. I hope you have a great vacation and may the sun continue to shine on your efforts...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    CSIQ did $29.5 pre-market and is now back to $29. Would be interesting to see if it can get past that resistance during market hours. All other solars are ~2-3% up as well.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Any thoughts on SCTY entry. These guys (Kimbal and Co.) have been on a role with deals lately. My one worry though is that the price is already factored in because they released all these things early. I'm out of cash to get in for now, but I hope to get in next week when I have funds.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    looks to be another solar blood bath day.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    More like the whole market is getting creamed. Nasdaq etc are down 0.4%...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    ya and it seems like Solars are actually holding their ground at this point.
    Yesterday was ridiculous so i expected some profit taking today. just hope not all of it haha
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    From what I have seen solars tend to be a 2 steps forward, 1 step back type of stock. I have played this 3 times and two if the times I was wrong and the stock continued to go up the next few days. The second time it didn't work it was another massive run up day. For that reason I didn't play it this time.

    I have some ditm nov csiq's I want to roll soon. I'm thinking about rolling half of them to a higher strike with a delta of 70-80 and the other half will go to sometime next year, I'll look towards the end of this week after tsla ER dust has settled a bit.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SCTY earnings play?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    probably going to pop but i am not touching it. I am 0-7 this ER season haha.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Would recommend shares or LEAPS if you are planning to play earnings.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SCTY down in sympathy to TSLA most likley.

    SCUN is still on a run. i still dont own any, but i dont see why this stock continues to climb, nearly no news. anyone with insight?
    Chat wise it looks like it could still run to $14
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Man, when it rains it pours. Since my TSLA options went completely worthless, I'll need to sell some stuff to get rid of my margin (originally, even at about 60% loss, my TSLA options would have negated my margin). Which means selling solar...which are all taking a beating today. And my favorite solar child, that's been the best of the flock even when the group is down, CSIQ? Yea, it's chosen today to be the worst of the group rather than the best, leading the decline at about -7% (along with SPWR).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Very tempting to buy a few SCTY Nov calls just to see the pop hopefully recover some of the lost money in TSLA today. :(
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My sentiments exactly... but I'm not sure I feel like all of it is priced in
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My play for SCTY is in there's got to be a reason why they released metrics early.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My understanding is they did that to prop up the stock price in order to get more money from secondary offering; and they got a 30% higher offering price. I could be wrong though.

    I thought it was very unethical. If they don't meet those targets next year then Solar City will get sued over this and it could be costly.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If that is the case... it kind of sucks that I just bought some calls.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    looks like SCTY was a Meh..
    Been a really tough earnings season for just about every stock i watch this year. Not a single one has been positive this quarter. that is 0-15 so far.
    Making me question all my solar holdings as they start to report.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    depends on how short term your trades/options are. I am going to hold my options positions in csiq, jaso, and jks through earnings, but giving them plenty of time (with expirations in June 14 and jan 15) to recover in case earnings are not up to the street's expectations.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    most of mine are long term.
    Only Jans i hold are SOL and YGE which were purely a couple bucks in lotto tickets. I am just saying this because earnings had been a slaughter house for me at 0-15 my entire account is almost back to even for the year. (not all were short term earning plays, just that i lost alot due to the falls but i can still recover) Short term plays were (FB, MU, TSLA, and SPWR) lost them and what turned my large portfolio back to even. CREE took out all my gains and put me back to even on them, for the second time this year. AMD was another disappointment as well. Profitable again after years underwater and yet still wasent enough for the market. OK sorry i am done venting lol.

    Oh i forgot i have a few CSIQ Jan $20s from a long time ago that were up 500% before today. So that is the only one i am actually going to really have to contemplate dumping and just hold my LEAPS through the ER.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Looks like SCTY continues to slip through the CC.
    (I do not own any SCTY)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    well... that was a bad play on my part. I bought Decs...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SCTY Q3 ER thoughts

    SolarCity reported Q3 earnings today:
    Press release
    Presentation
    Earnings call

    My take: Overall SCTY Q3 earnings are very strong. They continue to bring down costs and expand rapidly. And they�re on track to be cash flow positive in Q4 and stay cash flow positive.

    SCTY as a momentum stock: Recently momentum traders have gotten behind SCTY (even Cramer mentions SCTY as a cult stock now together with AMZN, TSLA and NFLX). I personally don�t think SCTY has a sexy enough of a business model to be group with those momentum players. SCTY�s business model is a super long-term model that probably won�t be able to sustain the hungry appetites of traders who want the stock to continue to go up or else they�ll dump it (and short it).

    Stock reaction to Q3 ER: Expectations going into Q3 ER were really high because of the recent SCTY run-up from under $30 to over $60 in the past several weeks. The earnings report was great from a long-term perspective but from a short-term perspective you could poke enough holes in it (weak Q4 revenue numbers) to make an excuse to exit this �momentum� player. We�ll see what happens in the coming weeks. But I see the recent offering price of $46.40 as a sort of near-term floor/support and I wouldn�t be surprised if SCTY recovers quite nicely in coming weeks.

    Residential market share: SCTY�s market share is growing at a very rapid share in the residential solar install/leasing market. In Q2 it was already 26% of the market and larger than the next 8 competitors combined. With SolarCity�s relentless focus on cost-cutting, I don�t see what will stop SCTY from taking over 50% of the U.S. solar residential install/leasing market within the next 1-2 years.

    ZEP acquisition: On the conference call management noted that their acquisition of Zep Solar has doubled the productivity of their crews. That�s amazing. Here�s a video overview of ZEP�s mounting solution that SCTY�s is now using and owns.

    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have trouble getting behind solar city. It's a great model but there is no protection from other deeper pockets replicating it. I suspect this is just my mistake in not jumping on board but what is the barrier to a utility company doing the same model?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Their main competitive advantage is their relentless focus to drive down costs of install/leasing/maintenance through the "Musk optimization method" (just coined it now). By the "Musk optimization method" I mean you look at every single part of the process/system and optimize incrementally like a mad man. An example of this is SpaceX where they've taken every part of the rocket/launch system and have optimized and cut costs to ultimately create a rocket/launch system that no other company can compete with (and especially so when they achieve a breakthrough with relaunchable rockets). Tesla is also following this "Musk optimization method" by religiously driving down costs to create an impressive 25% GM in the coming Q4.

    It might sound easy to focus on all part of a system/product, optimize and drive down costs. But it's actually a lot harder than it seems. The biggest challenge is to have the focus to do so. That's what other solar companies lack. No other solar company that I know of is attacking the integration of residential solar install/leasing/maintaining with the same religious fervor to drive down costs as SolarCity is. Nobody is even close IMO. That's why their current market share is greater than the next 8 competitors in the residential solar install/leasing market. And this will only likely grow a lot bigger.

    The challenge with panel manufacturers that I think as an investor you should have confidence with is whether the panel manufacturer has a long-term business model that is scalable. For example, if a company manufactures panels and that's their business model then what ensures a high gross margin? What's the competitive advantage over other panel manufacturers when there's a lot of them? Also, more importantly what's stopping them from becoming a low-margin component supply company that is stuck with shrinking growth after solar ends its hyper-growth period (eventually). Meaning, solar sounds sexy right now (ie., new, growing industry) but what's so special about panel manufacturers that they can become enduring, scalable companies that grow for 50+ years into world-class companies. I think it's possible and a few will likely emerge into those world-class level companies and evolve their business models as well. But for now, the solar stock boom is largely a rebound from an overcorrection that started last year when global demand for panels shrank and the market was flood with over supply. Chinese solars were on brink of bankruptcy, and now they're recovering and you're seeing a return to normal valuations (even though it's probably got a while to run still, but there might be some bumps along the way). So after it returns to normal valuation on fundamentals, then what besides the general solar industry growth pattern, will separate these companies as attractive high-growth companies?

    The reason why I think SCTY is special (apart from other solar companies) is because not only are they riding the solar wave but they've created a business model that is actually enduring and will last 100+ years even after solar growth tapers.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks Dave. Did you play calls on this ER? And are you not afraid that SCTYs partners might become their competetion? Or just a general shortage of panels in the next years as China ramps up local plants.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hey Norse, didn't play calls on this ER. SCTY is too volatile for me to play it short-term.

    I don't have much concern about SolarCity's partners becoming their competition. Expiring tax subsidies and changing net metering policies are probably my two biggest concerns, though I think both can and will be overcome via the cost reduction goals SolarCity has. Also, I don't think a shortage of panels will affect SolarCity much. They'll pay market rate (or a bit cheaper because of the scale of their purchases) and they can afford to do so because they're way ahead of their cost reduction goals, meaning even with higher panel costs they can still provide panel systems for cheap enough to make financial sense for the customer, fund investor and Solarcity.

    By the way, thanks for the link to the China auto quota article this morning. It was a good read. For those who haven't read it, it's here: China, choking on auto fumes, cuts new car sales quotas - NBC News.com
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I did not play it eighter but I think today might be a good day to get it. If Tesla falls deep the next days it might take SCTY with them, and we could get em both pretty cheap on Monday, but thats just a wild guess.

    Regarding the news from China I think its a strong signal to buy KNDI and TSLA again, if it wasnt for the downward momentum I think this should have boosted TSLA 5% alone. It also shows how important politicians are for helping the renewable revolution.
    Long-term I think SCTY and TSLA will do fine without politicians. And remember that the oil-industry is heavy subsidized, and that will not last much longer.

    - - - Updated - - -

    That did not take long: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/greenchina/2013-11/07/content_17087263.htm?
    China plans to raise its whole-year target of installed solar capacity to 12 gigawatts in 2014, up by 20 percent from the original target, becoming the latest stimulus for the country's sluggish solar industry.
    The new installation target for 2014 will include distributed solar capacity to 8 GW, and solar power stations with a capacity of 4 GW, according to a newly released document by the nation's energy authority.

    Great news for the chinese stocks.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Awesome news indeed Norse! Hopefully the NASDAQ cooperates today and lets these stocks shine :) .
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    All solars are down around 2% in premarkt. Maybe being drug into the mud due to Solar City.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm reducing my TSLA long position today and diversifying in more solar. It's too bad TSLA can't catch a break.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That and CSUN posted (apparently to the market) lackluster earnings this morning. They beat estimates but apparently not well enough to keep the stock from dipping ~12%.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    looks like another big down day in my portfolio.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Great timing for me to add more CSIQ. I'd also like to add more JASO but I don't like that there has been zero news from the company in the past two months if I recall correctly.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looks like NASDAQ is taking yet another early morning beating....
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Start of a pullback? Personally I'm holding off on any purchases until I see the next NASDAQ pullback. We're flying really high right now and I'd hate to purchase shares right before a significant drop in the market.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well if the Market keeps tanking i dont know how well we are all going to be looking coming into the next week's earnings run. A few more Solars on the table. We need a win in a big way.

    I still have money sitting on the side, not sure if i should hedge way i have or wait for this beat down to stop and average down some of my LEAPS
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000215542 Listen to this! This guy has begged people to sell chinese solar for ages. Now he don`t. I do not belive the chinese government will "help" the companies short term, I think they want to have a solar grid permanently.

    I was supposed to roll my shorter term call options over to LEAPS today, but I guess I will do that after a green day instead.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Mr. Market is mad at the job numbers. Down goes the ship some more today. I hope you have your life rings handy!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well then this is the pullback I was waiting for. Just need to see a sign of a bottom and I'm going to be making some purchases.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    http://www.streetinsider.com/Hot+Comments/Canadian+Solar+%28CSIQ%29+Likely+Won+500MW+Project+in+Punjab%2C+Pakistan+-+Analyst/8864110.html?si_client=intbro

    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I bought yesterday afternoon, seems I got in close to the bottom. Solars are all up today, too bad my TSLA is still headed the other way....dragging SCTY along with it.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I rolled half of my nov csiq call options to jan 16 37's today. I still want good exposure to the ER but I don't want as much risk as I had with tsla. I feel that this still leaves me some nice upside potential but if the market doesn't react like I think it should my leaps will soften the blow.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yea you timed it well. I was waiting for a sign that we wouldn't have any other huge down days, and looks like I got just that. Only problem is I missed out on roughly 4% of gains :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sold off most of my hedges in SCTY at 48.50$. Let's see what happens now.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    This is what I did today. With some solar earnings coming up, which one do you guys think is the next medium term 2-bagger? CSIQ, JKS, JASO?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    Well CSIQ already preannounced most of their earnings info and that can be attributed to their climb to $28. From what sleepy says about JASO, theres no definite proof that they will kill it during earnings this season. I'm not sure about JKS.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is only tangentially related, I suppose, but I figured you solar investors would find it interesting information. I'm a part of a survey group for Xcel Energy, my home electric/gas utility. They have recently been in the news for challenging current net metering policies, arguing that residential customers are currently paid retail rates for excess solar power and that they should be paid a rate closer to wholesale.. The survey I received today concerned a future ad campaign centered around residential vs larger-scale solar initiatives. In it, I was asked to gauge sentiment toward and effectiveness of various potential ads with messages along the lines of 'solar should benefit everyone, not just the few who can install panels.' Not sure that any potential campaign they launch would have a significant impact, but they are in 8 US states.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    I like CSIQ, JKS, JASO- in that order from putting in more money to less. Feel a bit better for JKS than JASO because they are supposed to be profitable this quarter. However if JASO surprises and becomes profitable (not expected to) then that's the biggest popper.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    agreed.
    JKS is expected to do well ever since their last ER and was named first profitable China solar. So we will need to see that growth and guidance.
    CSIQ should do well, but once again guidance towards more growth is key.
    JASO - There is not much of any data out there, so yes if they beat and dont sandbag guidance then they will pop, break out of the rounded bottom, and pop some more. (If they dont pop from the rounded bottom before ER)

    But as well all know the market is very irrational and as much as these solars have run up, there are alot of expectations on the table. So there is a chance they could fall short of these huge expectations and fall like rocks.

    Looks like i was wrong about my market beat down today. (I was on a plane home, jut landed) Before we took off i checked the futures when the jobs report came out this morning and saw the NASDAQ go from green by 0.5% to negative 0.15%, so i thought the bloodbath was on. Nice to turn on my phone and see everything green again. :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    +1. With such low PEs for a lot of these solars and the fact that these stocks have performed so well, if 2014 outlook remains bright we should see the run continue. But I am too chicken to put in too much money on solars that have no near term profit projections (JASO)...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Going into earnings all I have in solars like JASO and SOL are some Apr/June calls. I'm now waiting to buy stock until after the ER (just in case there is a large dip in share price). I was going to buy today but they shot up too quickly so I held off (should have purchased on the dip yesterday). This way I have some upside potential in the event the price shoots up after earnings, and the ability to buy on a large dip if necessary. If they don't dip after ER and shoot up then I can buy in at the start of a rally even if I missed out on a ~10% jump or so.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The first to Chinas I see next week are YGE and HSOL, both on Tuesday before market open. We will see if they are able to kick start a China solar rally and make up for the CSUN miss

    (I have a very small amount on both that i bough some time ago in case of a rounded bottom jump start from some kind of news that never happened. So now i am just going to see what happens)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hi Dave, if you don't mind me asking. what is you opinion about the recent chatter about Solar City being investigated for some accounting issues. this was posted on the yahoo message board: The Internal Revenue Service is also auditing two of SolarCity�s investment funds to examine the fair market value of the solar systems that received grants, says SolarCity�s filing.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Any thoughts on CSIQs earnings? They announced a lot of need leading up to it (kind of like SCTY, but with no secondary).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am really curious about the pre-announce. Tin foil hat me kind of thinks maybe they preannounced to drive up the share price because a secondary is coming?

    For what other reason does a company pre-announce part of its earnings, and it all be good news? Does that mean the bad news is coming in the call? I believe in them in the long term, but I have some November and january calls that have made me a lot of money and I am unsure if I should hold any of them through earnings.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yea, same here and no idea what to think about holding or selling pre-earnings. TSLA ran so bad I'd love to make up a little on a CSIQ earnings pop, but an earnings drop like TSLA and I'll lost most of the gains.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well it can be done to "spread out" the news and have a more gradual movement of the stock.... drives volatility down a bit and makes the stock look more solid (maybe?). There is no law which regulates the way a company gives guidance about earnings or future quarters so each company can do as they wish. I think usually companies pre announce earnings when they differ significantly from the previous guidance (either positively or negatively) as there IS a law which dictates that forward looking statements must NOT be MISLEADING. If guidance turned out to be MISLEADINGLY different from the actual results the company could be liable....

    This is an interesting read on the subject: http://www.skadden.com/sites/default/files/publications/Corporate_Finance_Alert_Earnings_Guidance.pdf
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, I've been thinking the same. I'm 0 and whatever on ERs this season so I feel inclined to want to sell some stuff before the ER, but I also am fairly confident that CSIQ should still be worth more NOW. It's just hard to know what to do when you have your own idea what a company should be worth and wall street doesn't agree.

    This is when sleepy jumps in and tells us all to buy and hold :p
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Would it be wise to buy OTM puts to soften the blow in case of a negative reaction? Has anyone ever tried that strategy (or similar ones) before earnings of a company they were long in? (would have worked nicely with TSLA this time around......)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What I think I will do (I am pretty new to options, with small amounts of money that I don't care if I lose), is selling my calls if there is a run up into earnings, and buying stock. This way, the volatility crush doesn't affect me, and if it's bad I can just keep going long and not worry about losing it all on my short term calls. I did this with Tesla and am pretty happy I did(I'm only down 23%ish instead of 80 or 90). On the flip side, if it runs up after earnings because of good news, an additional 10-15% isn't bad, right?

    I'm unsure if this strategy is any better than just buying OTM puts, but I believe in CSIQ in the longer term.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think that's a decent idea, another thing to do is to make spreads out of your calls. Sell higher strike calls to your lower strike ones. I'm going to do this for some. Making spreads is "never the worst" move to make when you're trying to decide to sell, spread, or do nothing, however it's not always the best choice either.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SOL pre announced last quarter and killed it, then they did a secondary which is why they are back where they started (from $3.25 up to $6 and then back down again) and are really putting all my JAN calls on edge which were up massive after Q2, back to even now after the secondary. (God i hope for another awesome quarter out of SOL haha)

    CSIQ is pushing to be profitable again, so i see no reason to dilute their shares if they are bringing in their own cash now. Also they are still not at max capacity (like SPWR) so i dont see why they even need the cash for any big CAPEX. Maybe pay down debt, but they can use their incoming cash flow to do it, so once again i dont see why they would.
    If they do pull a SCTY and do a secondary before earnings then yes be suspicious, but i see no need for them to do so, so i wouldnt worry about it.

    Buying a few puts is a great way to hedge shares going into a ER.

    Dont worry about CSIQ pulling a SCTY for one very simple reason.
    CSIQ put out statements which prove a good positive quarter, GM up huge. There is no way at all their EPS this quarter is going to disappoint when you literally double your GM from guided. NONE. CSIQ announcement was about how "we just killed this quarter, look for good numbers!"
    Where;
    SCTY did not give any real concrete statements about their current quarter (which is why their EPS did not beat). Their "per-announcement" was more about future and how 2014 looks awesome.

    So my only concern going into ER is future guidance, plan and simple. If they sandbag the hell out of guidance, which appears to be a commonality in the Solar industry, then they will bomb like they did last ER.

    The difference i see between CSIQ and SPWR going into ER, which is why i dumped my SPWR short term calls before the ER, SPWR was not going to have any expansion in Q4 and for a little while until the new facility is up. CSIQ still has room to grow in the short term which is really what half an ER pop or drop is about (other half being a "beat"). So i am going to keep my Jan CSIQ because i think A) CSIQ still has room to grow in the short term and B) They arent going to overly sandbag that ability in the short term to improve in Q4 and 2014 Q1. They very well could sandbag guidance as we saw in Q2 ER and why they doubled the GM this quarter over that sandbagged guidance... So its still highly possible of a sandbag, i am just not betting on it

    ONCE AGAIN do your own research and dont blame me for any trade you made on what i have said.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Heh. Lessee, just where have we heard From each according to his ability, to each according to his need before....??????? :(
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Man it's so hard to read CSIQ. I totally get your points about bumping up Q3 guidance... the big question is how much their EPS is.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    For Q3? How? They doubled GM, how could they not beat?
    Mine is future guidance for Q4 and 2014. They need to guide for more GM growth and sales.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The news I've seen on the pre-earnings annoucement doesn't seem to beat estimates:

    If anything, it seems like they might fall short of the analyst expectations after the pre-announcement, meaning any beat of prior guidance would be baked in already, right?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I believe you're referring to the accounting issues that have been under investigation for a while (past few months). It has to do with the value they assign their solar systems when leased. When I looked into it briefly by reading their quarterly reports, I didn't think of it as a major issue. If the IRS finds discrepancies or inaccurate values assigned by SolarCity, then SolarCity would likely have to pay a fine. But I don't think it would amount to much in the bigger scheme of things. That's just my opinion.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    it looks like they were upgraded within the last few days 30 day EPS was much lower then doubled in the last 7, according got Yahoo.
    So they got upgraded on EPS as the pre-announcment came out. So yes a beat might be tough now they spilled the beans. Going to make me re-think holding the JAN calls now.

    Still have my eyes on YGE and HSOL first though.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    Lazard Capital has a price target of $35 for CSIQ. Also Canadian Solar just signed an MOU for a 500MW deal in Pakistan (not sure if it was officially announced after close on Friday):

    Canadian Solar Price Target Raised to $35.00 at Lazard Capital Markets (CSIQ) - Zolmax

    Solar energy: Agreement signed with Canadian company The Express Tribune
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I would not trust zolmax if it was the only source of that PT, unless you know that we can trust them.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looking for some advice on SPWR. I have Nov16th options (this week) at a 32 strike price. They're in the red at this point since I paid $2.25 for them some time ago, but the question now is about maximizing what value they're worth.

    Given SPWR's Q3 report, I don't think there's much reason for the stock to move up or down other than a general following of the solar herd. However, it has tons of volatility since in less than 2 weeks it went from 34 to 29, back to 34, down to 30, back to 32. Whee, roller coaster :)

    The question right now seems to boil down to sell before the time value completely plummets later this week or see if the roller coaster has more upward left in the next few days.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well basically your using the rest of the solar ERs to hope they boost SPWR.
    YGE and HSOL are tomorrow morning, then you have CSIQ on Wednesday, So i dont see any point holding past CSIQ's ER because there will not be anymore known news events to help you.
    You need to figure out if you want to wait for all 3 ERs to happen and hope for the best out of them. Or wait until tomorrow morning and hope YGE and HSOL help you at all and ditch before CSIQ.
    Or dump now if you think all three are going to hurt you.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    @ckessel do you feel like gambling? How about dump it now and pick up CSIQ NOV 13 call and sell it before market close tomorrow? Although it Mar already be too late since CSIQ is already up 3% today...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Real Interesting watching JASO's action. Twice is ran through $12 and then hit heavy sell pressure and fell back fast. Lets see how this plays out. :)

    JKS And CSIQ making new 52w Highs!

    - - - Updated - - -

    This CSIQ run is making me think about dumping my Jan14s calls to lock in these gains. Maybe to much run up before ER will lead to a drop, the ER would have to be stellar. And if it does i can roll this cash into Jan 15s
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yea I'm trying to figure out what to do too. I'm thinking about selling half my nov calls tomorrow. The thing is if tsl has a less than stellar report then it will likely effect csiq too.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    TSL doesnt report until the 19th
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Oops sorry ment yge.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ya I figured. haha.
    Well I dumped my Jan14s. I have taken to many hits this ER season and I couldn't risk another.

    EDIT:
    I actually moved some of that CSIQ into some SOL shares.
    IF CSIQ takes a hit form ER on a sandbag or a miss due to the pre-announcement hype I will roll the rest of that cash into some LEAPS.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sell, SPWR decided to drop after I asked which I think makes the decision to let it ride some. Low enough that the potential upside is greater than the downside at this point.

    Conversely, with others (like CSIQ) doing so well I think it might be worth dumping before the series of ER's this week and rebuying long term options, LEAPS, or actual stock :) afterwards. If the stock movements of the solars are all as entangled as they seem, I'm not sure it makes sense to wait before each individual ER to choose to sell.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Do folks here recommend holding JASO long ? I am 18% up and wondering if I should exit pre ER, did that with JKS for a quick ~18%.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Make your own decision. But I invested in JASO just to see if sleepyhead's thesis was right that the stock might pop once above 12$.....

    - - - Updated - - -

    And here we go? Volume is pretty good.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    May be breaking out of the bottom OR this http://www.cnbc.com/id/101187764
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You're holding stock, correct? If you have stock Hold it, It is only going to become worth more over time.
    Solar are long term buy and holds. The industry is just getting out of the bottom of the barrel and charging back. The big Solar players all still have the ability to double over the next year. The smaller ones could triple or more if they get back their feet.
    It might fall after ER but by the end of 2014 it might have doubled over all.

    that helped spur the breakout.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks, yes I'm holding stocks. I firmly believe in the solar segment hence investing, but when it comes to Chinese companies I am not too sure, mostly due to transparency and lack of information (perhaps lacking due diligence on that front). Therefore, I have been investing small amounts in players like JKS, JASO.. any recommendations on a strong stable solar player for long term would be most welcome... CSIQ for instance ?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SPWR, JKS, CSIQ are all industry leaders. TSL is coming in as strong 4th IMO
    FirstSolar is a popular pick but due to their tech and business plan most here tend to ignore them.

    SPWR has some new tech coming that will reduce material by 20% needs by as well as increase efficacy putting them well into the lead on technology. Which makes them a lifetime type of holding until they make some major business blunder

    - - - Updated - - -

    not gonna lie, JASO is making me look like a god today :)
    (I have June Options and spreads)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't know that I'll have time this afternoon or tomorrow to watch the stocks I have Nov16th's on. I'm thinking I might set a trailing stop with a very small percentage. The goal is that if the stock keeps rising steadily, I'm good, but it'll sell fairly quickly should it turn south. The problem of course is it can easily trigger an sale on a minor dip, but since I'm considering getting out pre-earnings anyway on a few of the solars, that wouldn't be a horrible thing.

    Stupid idea? Reasonable?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    are you talking about your SPWR Nov 16?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, though not exclusively. I was planning on selling my CSIQ and JKS Nov16th options too.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Once again sleepy was spot on.... very impressive record so far. I've followed him on CSIQ and JASO and didn't follow with SCTY. So far so good.

    I've only invested a tiny amount on JASO though....and just because they were lagging behind. I don't usually invest in companies without believing in their fundamentals.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    GTOFFO - I limped in behind Sleepy for the past 6 months and today i sold my CSIQ JAN14s at a 500+% profit. If only i have the knowldge i do know that i did back then i would of put more then a few contracts on the line. This is why i jumped behind JASO with sleepy, heavily. Mine are JUNEs so i can hold them for a bit and see where this ride goes. I could make more or JASO could post a bad ER or two and i be back where i started. But if i learned anything from CSIQ, its to hold on when you have the time and let it play out. I could of made far more then i could of imagined if i would of stepped up behind CSIQ when i had the chance 3 months ago after the dip. (Jan $20s were going for $0.70, i just sold mine for $10.10, i should of doubled down at that point) I was ignorant back then and scared because i was in new territory with both learning options and learning about solar.

    ckessel - Trailing stops are not going to help you. When solars move, they move fast. Now i dont know how much influence YGE and HSOL are going to have on SPWR and JKS, but if they both bomb tomorrow then i see this beautiful day we are having today get knocked back alot tomorrow. (Assuming the adage that solars trade together, although HSOL is not today, street already knows they are going to bomb tomorrow?) You could also see profit taking or a bad market day tomorrow as well.

    Your NOV16 were a gamble when you bought them and they are a gamble now. Its going to be pure BS luck to get any major capitol back now. You need CSIQ, YGE and HSOL to all score big in the next two days. I just dont see that happening. No one here can tell you what tomorrow will bring. Its up to what you want to do and how you want to gamble the rest of it away.

    EVERYONE -
    Solar is going to be the leading Green Energy in this country and many others. Japan, US and Germany all exited Nuke power, and until they learn that its unsustainable to ignore nuke, they are going to toss money at solar like a rich, fat, ugly, drunk guy tossing $1s at a strip club. China is the biggest economy in the world now, and they are only continuing to get behind solar. Buy LEAPS, buy Stock, you will thank yourself in 10 years. They day Nuke power is back on the table for all these world powers, is the day i might start to maybe, possibly, think about pulling out of solar. Until then i am all in and will buy more on dips.

    This is my Opinion, do your own research and due diligence.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks fjm9898.

    Just a curiosity question, does anyone know why JKS and JASO went bonkers today? Not that I'm complaining, but it's sure hard to find news (well, unless perhaps you read Chinese boards?). Hell, KNDI is up about the same double digit as well.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I see it as a combination of things. There were a few positive press releases about the Chinese solar industry over the weekend. Couple that with breakouts and off to the races they went.
    Like i said, i would almost expect some profit taking tomorrow pending YGE's ER.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Looks like the profit taking already started
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If Solar become mainstream I see no reason for using nuclear power.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Solar will never be able to produce enough energy until the efficiencies go way up. That is the problem. Energy usage is growing extremely fast as the world dives deeper into electronics. Yes these things will get more efficient as well, but the amount in use will go up faster then the efficiencies of the items improving.
    It will be a long time until solar can sustain our energy needs. Not saying its impossible, its just not for a very long time, current tech is just not good enough yet.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There is also the problem of circadial cycles.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Without cheap storage solar can't do the job on it's own. Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors, LFTRs, are a potential safe type of nuclear reactor.
    http://energyfromthorium.com/
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is ture which is why you have to watch it.
    Cycles will happen if they can not regulate themselves and not create more supply then demand. (See memory sector, now down to 3 players)
    But a cycle can be your friend. We can trade the cycles and make alot of money on them.

    Even the EBR reactor designed in the 60s would be what we would need. EBR-II was shut down by the federal Government in 1994. It can reuse its own nuclear material over and over again putting an end to nuclear waste and making the green peace people happy. But those green peace people are the ones that got the program shut down. Because of these accidents, which have directly killed and proven to have killed the 70 some people around the cleanup efforts of Chernobyl, Nuclear has been portrayed as the devils energy source. Nuclear is very safe, not as safe as solar, that is a given, but it can meet our demands now and end reliance on coal, gas and oil for energy. Its not going to happen until the energy crisis is so dire they have no choice.

    Until then, I am behind solar 100%. Who knows maybe solar will catch up enough, maybe they wont.

    One only needs to look at France where 80% of their energy is nuke. Safe and clean. And then an EBR reactor would use up France's nuke waste making it 99% efficient. Those guys in the 60s had something with the EBR, sadly government shut them down on fear, not merit, physics does not lie.

    Sorry for the tangent. Solar is awesome and i hope it becomes a leader, why i am investing in it. Just right now i see no proof to it being able to handle the world's needs any time soon, although i hope to see it in my lifetime!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    fjm, I may have misspelt (?) a word there. What I meant was to reference the regular rhythm of day and night, as alluded to (I think) in Hamlet or maybe it was another Book. Solar is not much use in the dark. So, you need another reliable source of energy to fill in the big gaps.

    Look into Lawrenceville Plasma Physics -- still in research stage but looks promising: 5MW electricity from very cheap fuel and no radioactivity, just some X-ray energy which could be harnessed as well (or pointed into the ground (unless it's above a Subway) :) ), all in the form factor of a commercial cargo container costing ~$300k. Perfect companion to Solar during dark times. Remember, it's the stray neutrons which spread radioactivity and brittleness to traditional reactors.

    Is this the forum where I found the clue? I honestly cannot remember. Just hoping to make enough off TSLA/Solar to be able to invest in aneutronic fusion once opportunity finally knocks on my door. :-D
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's possible to invest in LPP as a private investor but there are some special rules in the US where basically you have to prove that you are rich to be eligible to invest. "Accredited US and/or foreign investors can purchase Class B, non-voting shares. - See more here "

    (I looked in to this and I'm not nearly rich enough) :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ahh I thought you were talking about how solar stocks are cyclical.
    I get what your talking about now. Yes daylight cycles mean we require some type of storage, as JRP3 pointed out. That is something that can be solved.
    I just dont see how solar with current tech can produce the amount of energy we currently demand and demand in the future.
    This is why we need Nuke or similar future less demanding tech. I am just sad the EBR-II never got its chance to shine. 99% waste efficiency and physics is what prevents a meltdown, not some guy half asleep at the controls. If the EBR-II went though we would nearly be off of consumables for energy right now. Politics win out over science and big oil/coal still find ways to win the battles.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks, Johan - was it perhaps you who showed me this way? Thanks again in that case:) Anyhow, that means I'm not (yet) rich enough either. Pity, because it certainly looks like a great opportunity. Let me ponder who I can lure into investing ;-))

    -------------
    Actually, it occurs to me that those circadial cycles refer to biological entities, depending on the rhythm of day and night even on a molecular scale. Sorry for any confusion of mine I may have spread around.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I too am thinking about what to do with CSIQ... Was planning to hold for 3 months hoping 2014 will look rosy for Solar. Trying to make up some losses from TSLA. Let's see what YGE reports tmrw. Will affect behavior of other solars too..
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ok, I dumped almost all my November calls, most made money (yay, since TSLA ate my hat).

    I've got handful of December and January calls already (JASO, JKS, SOL). I'm leaving those for the time being.

    I'm looking to take the funds freed up from the Nov's, correct my previous mistake of going too short with options, and buy at least March 2014 if not substantially later. So, the question is, what's the best stock to put money back into at this point? I spent about an hour going over old posts and the recommendations were all the names we hear a lot here: SOl, JASO, JKS, CSIQ, SPWR, a couple others.

    Solar seems to have moved fast though, so I figured I'd ask if anything has changed much on what's a good place to invest.
    • CSIQ has gone gang busters since the original recommendation so it's less clear if it's the best choice anymore (I suppose the ER tomorrow will say a lot about that).
    • SPWR was lackluster, but should be strong eventually if they ramp up production.
    • JASO had a great day today, but hasn't grown like CSIQ so maybe it has more upside available over the next year.
    • SOL...I can never figure out what's going on with SOL.
    • JKS has had big growth and some good news, but otherwise there's not a ton of press.
    Maybe take a scatter shot on all of them, plus whatever other recommendations folks might have? Probably many after ER to wait for the implied volatility to drop, though IV is wildly different on them so that's not necessarily a deciding factor on when to buy. CSIQ has crazy high IV right now, but SPWR is very low since it had it's ER already.

    I'm trying not to beg on the kindness of our forum and have been researching as best I know how at this point in my learning process, but I'm also sort of thinking out loud and hoping to use you guys as a sounding board. I screwed up some of my first shots with options and TSLA punished me for it. Solar was kinder and I'm trying to be a bit smarter this time around.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am going to try and nutshell this for you.

    Big players already made their moves and they are the safer bets: SPWR, CSIQ, JKS and First Solar.
    Mid runners that could still gain some are but arent as established are TSL, and JASO, CSUN
    lagers that could still run alot are HSOL, YGE, SOL, STRI However they might never run. Earnings will tell on YGE and HSOL tomorrow. If i like earnings i might buy some YGE LEAPS. And i am still waiting on options longer the April for SOL, but will wait for their earning to know how i am going to play them for the long run.

    this is my personal option, dont take it as gospel.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My remarks should be considered relative only to a long term, multi-year perspective so they may not apply to your desired treatment. For example I only use LEAPS (Jan15 and Jan16). I do move strike points and other watching for IV and ER timings for those however. Based on my research, following closely the research of others like sleepy, etc., Based on strength of the company, management, business model, and area of focus, I've determined that three companies meet my criteria for large long term positions. SCTY, SPWR, CSIQ. I hold a slightly larger position in SCTY, then SPWR, then CSIQ , but they are all within 20% of each other.

    I then hold a small position (stock, no LEAPS) in a small cadre of higher risk but well positioned companies as follows in order of position amount
    JKS, JASO, TSL, SOL

    Also with a position in solar ETF- TAN
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think we are all similar thinkers here. Out of the SPWR, SCTY, and CSIQ list, I like CSIQ still the best- high quality company, high margins, growing fast, and smallest market cap out of the big players. Also, I found this forecast from Bloomberg posted today for Canadian Solar for 2013 and 2014 projected revenue consensus of $1.8 Billion and $2.5 Billion respectively, which is 50% growth from 2013:

    CANADIAN SOLAR INC (CSIQ:NASDAQ GS): Earnings Estimates - Businessweek
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I bought CSIQ due to Sleepyheads persuasive case for it. I am, however, very nervous about owning a foreign company doing business in China. A few years ago I bought an American wind company, AMSC, that had most its business with one customer in China. Less than a week after I bought it, the Chinese company broke its contract, refused payment on millions of dollars worth of product already received, then it turned out they also stole proprietary software by bribing some IT guy. Now AMSC is two to three quarters from bankruptcy. There only chance is a win in Chinese courts before they go under. No doubt the the courts are as corrupt as the companies and they will stall the proceedings until AMSC is bankrupt and can't pay counsel anymore.

    Doing business with the Chinese is very dangerous.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks (to all of you). While I sold my CSIQ options, they were Nov16th and I didn't want to risk an ER with options again. I may buy CSIQ stock tomorrow though as part of a long term position (no IV to worry about).

    I'll chew on it overnight.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well I sold my January $14's in CSIQ that I got when Sleepy was mentioning that it might break out at $16.5 for a nice 200+% profit today, pocketed some of it and bought Jan '15 and Jan '16 calls to have a longer LEAP based exposure to CSIQ. I still have about similar size couple of SCTY January call spreads that I made risk free at some point and a bunch of JASO and SPWR calls that are nicely in the green. Might trim the JASO position slightly or not just before earnings or hedge some of it if the IV spikes high enough.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    yup, both HSOL and YGE missed. so they are going to drag down solars today.
    Buying Opportunity :)
    �
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