Thứ Hai, 31 tháng 10, 2016

Alternative Energy Investor Discussions part 20

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    YGE and HSOL took big hits but most of the other solars aren't affected too much by the earnings announcements. The NASDAQ was down market open so thats probably why the solars were red. Although nows probably a good time for some SOL since it took the biggest hit that I saw outside of YGE and HSOL. I personally picked up some more JASO at $11.73.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Glad I dumped all my Nov options yesterday! Guess I'll wait and see how the day develops as I figure out how I want to apportion purchases, much as I can given actual job duties anyway. Might be able to grab some CSIQ stock at a slight discount.

    Not sure what to think with SOL. Since mid-July, it's under performed most every other solar we talk about. Just sort of run flat, not really following the herd one way or another.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Its mainly because there hasn't been any news from them recently. As sleepy has said previously, these stocks tend to flatline and flutter out if there isn't a news coming in.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What do folks think of CSIQ at current level ($28-$29) after the run up over the last month. Earnings is tomorrow, I believe the company has strong long term fundamentals but caught up whether to take a position today (2-3% down pre ER) or post earnings. Any insights into how this quarter will fare ?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SOL ran to $6 after Q2 ER. Then they announced a secondary stock offering, which diluted shares and showed investors they were still in need of cash to get off the bottom. When this happened it tanked the stock and its been trying to crawl back ever since.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Accidentally posted this in Sleepy's megaposts thread, but here too: Any thoughts on STRI earnigns report? The stock itself is getting hammered somewhat with -11.6% and it has tripped the short sale circuit breaker.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    STRI and CSUN are not investments, they are highly speculatvie vehicles. Nothing worth researching at all. It is a waste of time.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Lacking a clear plan of what to do with the funds from selling my Novs, I put it into CSIQ stock for the time being. I'll almost certainly be holding some of it very long term anyway and today seemed a good day to buy given the dip and the upcoming, hopefully good, ER.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Do you think CSIQ is a good buy Pre ER today ? I read your megapost on CSIQ a bit too late, new to solar.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think it is, but I also thought TSLA was a good buy prior to Q3 ER. I am a lot more confident in CSIQ though. I think it is a great buy, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the stock tank 10% tomorrow. I don't think it will, but you never know.

    I am expecting a 30% move for CSIQ by the end of the week. But nothing will surprise me.

    Solar companies are not ER plays. They are buy and hold investments. If you want to hold long term then buy today and forget about ER tomorrow.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Anyone here have access to Capital IQ? I am seeing CSIQ analyst consensus of $0.36 EPS on yahoo and marketwatch. If this is the true consensus then CSIQ will blow that number out of the water.

    CSIQ is the only ER play that I really felt confident about going into Q3 ER. All of the other ones I was hopeful, but CSIQ I knew would have a great ER. I think this ER will be the beginning of something big for the company.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm not sure how accurate this site is but Earnings Whispers is showing $.60 consensus estimate.
    http://www.earningswhispers.com/stocks.asp?symbol=CSIQ
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Appreciate your valuable insights, picked up some CSIQ. Did get burnt by TSLA for a bit, but then made some as well earlier = zero game.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I hope you are right. That would be fantastic. I rolled half my nov calls out and up to J16 earlier this week because I felt a little over exposed after the week we had with TSLA. Your 30% would also put a small speculative play I made a month ago itm.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just due to the fact that CSIQ is in the minorty of Chinese Solars to be profitable this quarter, I am expecting there to be less downside and more upside potential, unless they miss bad. Also due to the variety of consensus estimates out there not sure which number the market will use to make buy/sell decisions. I am optimistic in the medium term ( 2 to 3 months).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The market will use Capital IQ consensus number. That is why I asked if anyone had access?

    Anyone?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    looks to me like roth capital partners is the only analyst picked up by Capital IQ (and their current estimate is $0.60 for Q3 -- see history of their estimates below):

    Roth Capital Partners, LLC - EPS (GAAP) (FQ3 2013) - Consolidated
    [TR="bgcolor: #F5F5F5"][/TR][TR="bgcolor: #F5F5F5"][/TR]
    Nov-04-2013 9:03 PMRevisionShen, PhilipUSDUS GAAP ico_value_arwup.gif 0.60
    Aug-08-2013 11:58 AMRevisionShen, PhilipUSDUS GAAP ico_value_arwdn.gif 0.22
    Aug-05-2013 1:18 PMConfirmationShen, PhilipUSDUS GAAP check_graybg.gif 0.35
    Aug-05-2013 6:04 AMOriginalShen, PhilipUSDUS GAAP event_rating.gif 0.35
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    Thanks.

    I think they can still beat $0.60, but on a GAAP basis there might be some one-off items that can through off EPS in either direction. One analyst is not really considered consensus.

    I wonder why CapIQ does not have Nomura or Lazard who also follow CSIQ. GAAP doesn't really matter. Are the non-GAAP numbers different?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    not sure either -- they show nomura and lazard as analysts that follow CSIQ, but don't have information re: their 3Q estimates.

    as for non-GAAP, they don't have any info.

    surfside
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Fly on the wall says consensus 0.36
    NASDAQ site says - According to Zacks Investment Research, based on 1 analysts' forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.6.

    ?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What is your EPS estimate? What I have come up with is in the $.88-$1 does that sound right?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just a back of the napkin calcuation:

    $485m rev
    $95m gross profit

    $40m Opex
    $10m interest expense
    ($5m) forex gain

    $45m Total Expenses

    $50m Operating Income

    $5m Net Income Tax
    $5m Minority Interest (not sure about this item, but I am using Q2 number here).

    $40m Net Income

    46m diluted shares

    $0.87 EPS

    If you take away that $5m minority interest then you are talking about $0.99 EPS.

    It is impossible to tell since Tax expense is hard to predict as well as other items.

    I think that the $0.87 EPS number should be a close estimate. I would not be surprised to see a lower number, because sometimes when companies see that they are going to blow out the consensus, they might want to accelerate some expenses in order to make meeting next quarter's (or some quarter far in the future) numbers a lot easier.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks for that! I understand and I like you point below. That's exactly what I came up with. Another scenerio is: They blow out earnings and stock goes to
    $37 and they do a secondary offering to take advantage of the gain. I will expect $.65-$.75 just so it will be either inline or beat my expectations. I've made a cool 300% profit since I found your article on Investnaire! Your awesome! Keep up the posts, and I'll keep making money!!!! ;)

    Would be any reason they have more than the guided revenue or margin? Tesla in April said 4,750 and it was actually 4,900 etc. any ideas?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SOL pre-announced in Q2 and they raised GM from 3%-5% to 5%-6% (on July 16, a full two weeks after Q2 was finished). Then actual results came in at 7.3%, which they had to have some clue that it would be higher than 6%.

    When you pre-announce bad results, you give all the bad news in it. When you pre-announce good results, you only give half the news. We will find out what the other half is tomorrow. I would not be surprised to see 20.X% gross margin even though they guided 18%-20%. $500m revenue is not out of the question either.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    wait... they announce before market open?! DARNIT
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, 8:00am eastern time.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    lame looks like I need to do a premarket order. It's saying results posted at 6:21 AM and then 8:00 AM is the CC. My play is looking like a premarket order and taking whatever comes out of guidance.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I like the premarket announce, I don't have to listen to the CC and wait until the next morning to see how the market reacts, aka I don't have to lose sleep at night due to giddy anticipation or dread of what is to come, haha. Instead I get to lose sleep the night before having no idea what to expect ;) Kidding, things are a lot less stressful now than when I was 100% in TSLA. You can't put a cost benefit on that.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was hoping to get in tomorrow during the day I totally overlooked the time on the ER call. I suppose it's good as I will be using margin on this bad boy if it pops. We can all chat tomorrow morning I suppose.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks to all, especially Sleepy on the advice/guidance given on solar in general and CSIQ in particular. Hope all goes well in the AM. Good luck to all.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I need a pop on CSIQ so I can eventually pick up some more Tesla before it runs away upward :) But have a feeling CSIQ will outrun Tesla medium term if earnings is great. I am hopeful this puppy will run another 50% mid term. That would bring them close to a $2 Billion market cap. Am cautiously optimistic.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agreed. I am a little 'gun shy' with ER reports as most recently have led to decrease in stock values.....Hopefully CSIQ will be different. I know that you, like me, got out of most of your TSLA position with the announcement of the third fire. I bought back in a little today and will watch closely for other opportunities to add more. I feel that solar does have better short/medium term potential for gains than TSLA.

    Good luck.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yea, +1. I do look into the companies he posts and take full responsibility for my choices on where I put money, but I very much appreciate his efforts. When someone that's clearly put in as much work as he does and takes the time to post as regularly as he does to share, then I'm sure as heck listening!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good luck to you too. Am gonna have a glass of wine now. Last time it brought us good luck with TSLA, remember?? ;-)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Revenue 490.9M $; Q3 EPS 0.56
    The backlog utility-scale backlog looks impressive! future looks very bright. thanks sleepy for the amazing tip on CSIQ!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Premarket looking good. Hope it holds up and the 'pop' is not ANTZ buying in at $30 (hopefully you got in lower Antz)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Great results and they raised a lot of cash in the quarter.

    EPS came in at 0.56 because they had written off bad debt allowance and then increased allowance for doubtful accounts for a combined $7.7m or $0.17/share, which I expected that they might accelerate losses to take advantage of great quarter. Also tax expense came in a little higher than what I used by another $7.

    Very impressive results, especially the $152m in operating cash flow (equal to SPWR's goal for entire year, which was exceeded) in Q3 alone.

    They lowered net debt by $200m or 40% to only $310m, and increased cash by $140m to $680m.

    Very strong financial position compared to peers, and project pipeline is expanding. Looks like another long term winner.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Based on these results what would be the realistic future target price you can think of Sleepy..? Are you loading up any more positions?

    What is your take on from this point?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks sleepy for all your research and sharing it. You were spot on.

    And thanks Dr. Qu (even though you probably don't know of us) for the remarkable vision and team you have put together.

    Reading over the report seeing the truly amazing growth, I can't imagine how the market could have any thing less than a stellar reaction. They really hit a grand slam.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm guessing majority of the CSIQ trading only happens during market hours because right now the pre-market is very very muted. It jumped to ~$29.5-$30 range after the ER, but the volume so far total is 50k shares. And it's sticking around there. Then again right now we are in the pre-pre market, standard pre-market starts in 15 minutes, we'll see if there's more interest there.

    Slightly off topic, but why aren't everyone trading in pre-market and after-hours? Are there regulations that forbid institutions in trading at those times or why is it that this time is only accessible to some. As I understand most private investors can gain quite easy access to pre- and after market so why not bigger institutions? And they seem to have some access because post-earnings AH action is huge in some cases as well as pre-market, but not on ordinary trading days, they fight for nanosecond speeds and then ignore a full 8h or so of trading time outside the normal market hours.

    - - - Updated - - -

    So if I remember right the earnings were posted 6:20AM and conf call at 8AM and just as it got to 8 AM the stock dropped to $28.5 region and is hovering there now. Any particular reason (can't imagine how the first minute of CC could pull the stock back 5%). It's still up, but now it's just 1.4%
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You can listen to it by going to their website -investors-events-webcast.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Cause pre-market really opens at 8 am. SA and Zacks says that CSIQ missed..
    i am at work so please report back from cc :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It seems CSIQ lost audio feed and now they are a bit confused where they were ;) I just hope their panels work better than the audio conference system ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    CSIQ CC just crashed halfway through :biggrin:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The CFO is resigning as requested by shareholders to enhance independence. Not familiar with this topic, but I guess this was expected?

    - - - Updated - - -

    There was discussion about future China sales and various projects. Shaun mentioned that all of them are past MoU signings with local governments and some are even beyond that. The total amount is 3GW, but as they don't know the timelines they don't put any of this in guidance right now as they don't know in which quarters/years they will enter construction phase.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Japan will have some in 2014, but majority of the Japanese projects are in 2015 and 2016.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Module margins were a tick over 13% and guidance is without any project sales included therefore the 13-15% margin is purely panel production GM.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Even if we don't see a pop today from CSIQ, I'm still excited for the long term of this company. Looks like demand is great and is only going to get better in the next couple years!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Totally agree!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Module capacity 2.1GW, they can get it to 2.2-2.3GW. In Canada ~200(300?)MW and plan to go to 400MW next year. That's about the capacity that they and can go to. For cells 1.4-1.5GW, typically purchase 400-500MW in Taiwan to fulfill the US shipment requirements. For solar wafer 200MW, remaining is bought from strategic suppliers. Moving into 2014 they see strong demand for module products and see strong growth in module and their own project and epc(?) business. They are looking for different options including limited expansion of own capacity as well as OEM partnerships(?). They want to balance cap growth and be conservative on capex spending. *sorry for live typing, not sure I caught all as it was said*

    - - - Updated - - -

    They are running at full capacity. The two canadian projects are already recognized as assets on balance sheet, weren't recognized in Q3 as sales, but are basically that.

    - - - Updated - - -

    $0.51-0.53 target for internal cost by end of year (they exited Q3 at $0.53)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks for all the updates Mario.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't think it was expected but he is just resigning from the board so that a new board member can come in which doesn't belong to the management team.

    - - - Updated - - -

    1.31$ in Q2 2011

    0.57$ in Q1 2013
    0.55$ in Q2 2013
    0.53$ end of Q3 2013

    If they reach 51cents at the end of 2013 that would mean a >10% reduction for the year, >60% reduction since 2011. Not bad.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    stock market looks to open solid in the red. DOW down nearly 100 points.
    so that is not going to help things.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Is it finished?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Solar sector is looking decent even with the overall market down.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    For about an hour :) It finished maybe 10 min after I posted my last update.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Is it just me or the CSIQ price action is kinda weak compared to when they pre-announced a week or so ago?

    Also what are the chances that they will do a secondary? probably low since they are generating more cash now?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's a great move from yesterday. I didn't have the cajones to get in this morning because I know markets are irrational.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Up over 10%! Rock and roll! Congrats everyone.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well I added to my Jan '15 $22 and am happy I did :) it's pulled back already some, but CSIQ did hit $31.2 after lulling for 20 minutes :) I think it'll continue to go up as the general report was very positive. The only part that I'd be worried is the ability to extend their growth and be able to really produce more GW per year.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Great ER, the company looks to be in good shape. As for the stock, 9% is nothing to sneeze at though the various solars move around that much on a regular basis with very little news, so I'm not sure its that big a breakout. Other solars are at 5% today as well.

    Aside from buying a bunch of stock yesterday, I bought a small amount $32 weeklies as lottery tickets. Almost there....but it looks like it hit a wall at $31.50 and dropped back. It's early though.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well you have to remember that part of the ER is already priced in since they pre-announced. So between the two days its close to 20%.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks for the recap Mario! 5am conference calls are a killer out here on the west coast :smile:

    These two points all seem like big ones to me but I haven't seen any discussion over them. Was it known that they have about 3GW in the pipeline for China?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Guys I got in big with CSIQ Jan15 $30 calls a couple of weeks back. They are already up 55%. I'm thinking of rolling them in to Jan16 $35 calls instead, trading at more or less the same premium. Seems like a good deal to me? Also, could the stock be a bit overbought at the moment - I'm thinking sell my current LEAPs and sit on the cash for a week or two and then get back in for the Jan16s (I know I will always be risking it getting away from me).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'd probably sell the Jan '15 and go in with half of them into the Jan '16 ones. This way if it runs away you took 50% off as profit and still have exposure. If it corrects down you can get in with the other 50%. Just my $0.02. I myself rolled from Jan '14 $14 to Jan '15 and Jan '16 ones pocketing part of the profit (a good 200+%).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Mario and Johan.....Do you both do options are do you hold stock in csiq as well? I only have stock but considering LEAPs
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I almost exclusively trade options, but in solar stock have decided to only touch LEAPs. The CSIQ Jan '14 ones were a bit riskier, but I bought them when Sleepy was indicating the long cup breakout at $16.5 so decided to put some gamble money in it :) Did quite nicely from there effectively doubling until today, but now I decided to move to minimum Jan '15 LEAPs that I might roll into Jan '16's around mid-2014.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Need to go to bed so I just unloaded all of my CSIQ (except JAN 15), JKS and SPWR calls and loaded up on SOL. Hopefully this laggard will pop soon. Now I'm about 50/25/25 for CSIQ/JASO/SOL. Good luck for the rest of the day and hopefully CSIQ hits $36 :p
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks for continuing to help us with solars analysis, Sleepy. All my CSIQ options are in the green by a respectable amount today. Do you think the market is still largely underpricing the sector or are more investors starting to take notice? I found this front-page mention on Yahoo Finance of FSLR interesting, for example.

    Also, aside from short-term plays, would you recommend holding stock, leaps or a combination of the two for now?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    For me only LEAPs in mainly CSIQ and SPWR. I think the next few years will be amazing for the good solar companies and I want leverage, but not be exposed to potential huge short-term swings that we see in these stocks. Once this industry has grown perhaps 100-fold in like 10 years the good companies (still standing) will be high-yield dividend paying keepers. That's the time to convert to stock. My $0.02.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The whole sector is still undervalued, but you have to pick the right stocks: CSIQ, SPWR, JASO, SOL, JKS, and most likely TSL. And avoid the losers YGE (still might turn around but huge debt burden is hard to overcome), HSOL, LDK, STP.

    The problem is that they are not profitable YET, and it might take Q4 or Q1 for some of these companies to turn a profit. If they don't then they might go back down.

    But all signs are pointing to a huge 2014 for the solar sector and the market will figure it out eventually. You have to have a vision and get in early to make the big bucks. SOL is a great lag play right now, and so is JASO. JASO is starting to break out and it might take off soon. If ER disappionts it might lag for another few months and then take-off. I think the odds favor the former, so I am loaded up. SOL might pre-announce earnings tomorrow and it will be too late to buy then.

    You really have to be a visionary and buy in too early, and then wait patiently until the trade develops. I don't buy LEAPS in solar, because they are way too expensive. Stock is the best option unless you want deep ITM leaps as stock replacement with 2x leverage that is cheaper than buying on margin, albeit with similar risk.

    I wouldn't buy short term options unless there is a huge pullback, even then a stock might fall into an extended funk (like SOL) and you will lose it all. One month ago, when CSIQ was at $19, I loaded up on a ton of Nov. $27, $28, and $29 options all for $0.29 - $0.32. I cashed most of them out today at 1000% return. I am still holding some in case there is a run over the next two days, because CSIQ is still extremely cheap. I was able to buy those options and make money on them because I spent more time researching the industry and the company than 99.99% of people who invest in it. I also bought a lot of short term options that lost money even though I researched a ton; the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. You can still do very well with stock. Short term options are now very expensive due to high volatility and there aren't as many great opportunities anymore.

    Buy and hold. The sector is only starting to come out of the funk and if it does come out, there are still multi-baggers to be had.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks big guy. Really, really appreciate all your thoughtful analysis and sharing.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sleepy, I already bought CSIQ on your recommendation, thanks. Between SOL and JASO, do you like one better than the other, or is it better to buy both? Thanks.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    For CSIQ I went with deepish ITM leaps for 2015 (i.e. $22 strike when it was at $29, break even $34) and for 2016 I picked ATM ($30) because it's far enough out that I can leverage that (and in 2.1 year timeframe a break even at $42 isn't too bad especially if on 2014/2015 there is a run up that allows hedging).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Alternative Energy Investor Discussions (formerly SCTY thread)

    Sold my csiq nov 17's that I bought end of September for just under a 9x return. Wish I could do that every time. Doesn't equal what I lost in tsla last week though.

    Keeping my speculation play though, they expire jan 14. That's at a 5.5x right now.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    + 10. We think alike. Only thing with me was I got carried away with the TSLA run and should've sold in the $180 range. For solar I like CSIQ the best (risk-reward ratio- (potential 2-bagger medium term, 3 bagger in 2014 some time). JASO, JKS are probably 2 to 4 baggers in 2014 but higher risk. SPWR may be a two bagger in 2014, possibly a 3 bagger. If sunpower 3 bags in 2014, CSIQ will 5 bag, IMO.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Guess I should have waited. Thought there would be a small sell off the last hour from profit takers. (Like me)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Used todays upswing to sell some shorter term (spring-2014) options and convert them to LEAPs. If there is a pullback then the delta is smaller, if there is a continued upswing, then oh well I lost a bit on delta, but gained a lot on expiration time and safety margins. Also eliminated JKS options for now and didn't open LEAPs, holding CSIQ, JASO, SPWR, SOL (in that order in $ weight). Need to understand JKS a bit better before I go back in, it was a purely speculative play following Sleepy in (and rightly so, got a nice profit), but I'd need to do some more homework and I had decided today that I won't stand 2014 options in solar unless that's the furthest it goes (SOL for example has only April '14 options, no LEAPs).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I only use LEAPS (and stock); but did the same effective move. Moved about 1/2 Jan15 LEAPS to Jan16 - My order currently is SCTY, SPWR, CSIQ (all very close though)- then trailing stock only positions in JKS, JASO, TSL, SOL in that order
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hmm the huge finish for the NASDAQ has me a little worried there is going to be some profit taking tomorrow...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agreed, NASDAQ setting another high is tough to see. You never know what the market will do though. I am hoping for a small pull back to move my profits into some more JASO LEAPS
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    kenliles and mario,

    when you roll your leaps from jan 15 to jan 16, are you rolling for even money? For example, i have jan 2015 csiq 17 strike calls. To roll to jan 2016 for no additional money, i would have to go with the 25 strike, which is $8 higher than my current strike.

    thanks!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I only hold one solar option...March 2014 JASO. I did sell off some CSIQ aftermarket (about 35% of my position) that represents most of my original investment. I will put it right back in...if...there is a dip. If not, the rest can ride. These are all in retirement accounts so no tax implication. If they were not in retirement then I would be totally 'buy and hold'.

    A green day today

    Thanks for everyone's input.

    A question: I know this is 'alternative energy'....but....any of you research 3D (DDD)? Family members are really excited about this but I think solar represents a better return in a 'green industry'
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Aside from the stock I bought, I grabbed weekly $32 lottery tickets yesterday. CSIQ teases me by hitting $32 on the nose. Given I paid .60 for each option, it's right at the inflection point. If the stock rises 2-3% tomorrow, I'll make out like a bandit. If it drops then, well, I still made decent money with my stock holdings and that's only partially negated by the options.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Congrats to everyone on CSIQ, especially sleepyhead. To myself it feels really good to walk away with 494% gain!!! jumped on Nov. 16th $23 options when it was at $22.50, extremely cheap ($1.60) !!!

    On another note, to keep the gains going, how is everyone playing JASO and SOL into earnings? Any stock recommendations Sleepy? I'd love another investaire article!;) I'm going to let CSIQ option prices drop a little before I make another move, does that sound right?
    �
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    guest
    On a steady state basis, the answer for me is yes. I'll move up in strike to balance the time value. If I want to reduce my position, then I'll reduce contracts or increase strike even further. If I want to increase my position, I'll add contracts or lower strike. But nominally, yes I'll maintain same contracts quantity, moving up in strike with the rate of growth assumption in-tacked.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Congrats to all who played CSIQ. I couldn't get myself to do it today for some reason. We all know how fickle the market is. That and I couldn't bring myself to take on margin for a "buy and hold." But something tells me that I can still get in later :)

    I'm going to be shameless and ask how you would play this going forward for the short and the medium term. I placed speculative plays on SCTY and TSLA at the wrong times and got burned. I need to understand the methodology and framework of the options plays (of people who profited here).
    �
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    guest
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    guest
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    guest
    But he was also long CSIQ, sleepy.
    �
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    guest
    Did JASO announce their ER date yet? I couldn't find it in their website.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's due on Nov 25th
    �
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    guest
    I think he is right to say be careful on the Chinese ones just because accountability risks are larger, but I'd put smallish amounts in them without hesitation and more and more money as I see signs of maturity. First profit, to start with. Since it's a crowded field, before putting big $ it's important to identify the leaders and their business models, the next potential leader and the ones that may not make it. It's all about risk-reward. After CSIQ, I'd put my $ on JKS and SPWR, and then maybe JASO and TSL.
    �
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    guest
    Have you studied SOL?
    �
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    guest
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    guest
    Looking at the history of solar stock performance for the past 5 years, it shows it has been very cyclical, very quick to climb, and very quick to crash. The bottom to peak cycles have lasted about a year for the first cycle, and less of a powerful cycle for the 2nd one but it lasted slightly longer (for the larger players). Now we are well into the third cycle and have climbed very quickly. Anyone convinced this cycle will outlast/out-peak the prior ones? Global warming is definitely more of an urgency today than a few years ago. Will the cycle end if legacy energy prices drop all of a sudden and solar price drops/ efficencies cannot compete? Thoughts?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Definitely would affect companies doing business in the US for residential installations. Is this ruling for only residential or also for businesses using solar power that are on the grid? CSIQ primarily has business customers as it builds power plants so it may not affect them as much vs. panel makers for residences on the grid.
    �
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    guest
    This is incorrect.

    You have to be careful because all websites give estimated dates that can be wildly inaccurate.

    There is no official date until a company announces it and you can never guess these ( some companies are more consistent). That's one of the reasons we started our website to give accurate information.

    JASO announced its ER date just 2 hours ago and it will be Nov. 26. In this case that estimate was close but for others it was way off, such as hsol or yge.

    Edit: most websites do not distinguish between official dates and there own estimated dates, which is really frustrating, especially if you play options.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It would likely effect residential and small to medium commercial. Once you get to a certain size you become an independent power plant (IPP) as far as the utilities are concerned and no longer fall under net metering rules.

    If the net metering laws are overturned battery storage will end up being an option, however it is still quite costly. With over half the total costs being batteries.

    This is where I see huge potential for Tesla to allow the cars to double as a battery bank for a solar system and also to be used the other direction as a battery back up system in the event of a power outage. With a few modifications the hpwc could easily be turned into a backup compliant inverter. Add $5000 to the price tag for a backup compliant one and it is a no brainer.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The monster that is SCTY is back! Didn't see that coming so soon.
    �
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    guest
    Woah......opened my trading account expecting SCTY to be going down today....
    Instead:
    CSIQ also gets some love:
    �
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    guest
    Nice on the CSIQ price bump!

    I don't know why but I feel really good about JASO going into Nov 26th. SOL I'm still not sure on. They are either sandbagging by not putting out any news, or they just don't have anything especially good to report going into earnings.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have some SCTY options expiring tomorrow.....they are deep in the money (33$)......10+ baggers so far... and they started out as a bull call spread which I have closed and reopened successfully several times as the stock fluctuated.....a lot of lucky trades.
    So here's the dilemma: I'm considering exercising them to get back some stock (I had to convert all my SCTY stock to options during the TSLA meltdown) or rolling them into LEAPS. My goal is to create a nice and solid core position but if possible still get some good leverage.

    Any ideas/advice?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So what's everyone's prediction on ER for SOL and JASO?
    �
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    guest
    Be nice if the market shared the same opinion. The stock started out high and has been sinking extremely quickly since the bell.

    Edit: something of an odd start for solar today. The stocks are all over the board, some well green (SPWR), some negative (CSIQ/JASO). Defying their usual herd behavior.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    NASDAQ sell off like I expected. CSIQ and JASO should rebound, theres no reason why they wouldn't. Nothing but good news coming from both of them. Now we just need to get confirmation of SOL's ER date and I'll be a happy camper :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think some profit taking had to come....the stock has been flying high and needed a breather eventually. Plus this wasn't an upgrade but just a reiteration of a previous buy rating. It probably dampened a more severe sell-off we were going to see today. The same applies to JASO which has also risen significantly.

    Most of the others are in the green.

    Well the nasdaq started slightly in the red but is flat at the moment actually.... the real sell off might still have to come if you were waiting for one.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I probably should be stated it differently: NASDAQ profit taking from yesterday. I don't think its going to correct in the next few days but one never knows.
    �
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    guest
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    guest
    Didn't see that one coming.

    Also:

    �
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    guest
    The press release states: "As part of the partnership, BMW i owners will receive a 10-percent discount on SolarCity's home solar offer with flexible financing options, including options with no upfront installation cost and 20 years of locked-in solar energy rates. The discount will be available with the purchase of any BMW i vehicle at all participating BMW i Centers in SolarCity's 14-state service territory."

    I'm considering having SolarCity do a PV install for my home and soon-to-be-delivered Model S. Looks like I should ask for a 10% discount to see if they will match the BMWi deal.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sleepy, is it just me or is next week looking like a grand slam?
    JKS and TSL both post earnings early in the Week.
    JKS being profitable and then TSL pre-announcing a guidance for an extra 100MW installed and their GM nearly doubled what they guided for.

    The only Negative i can see if that Gordon Johnson is right and the module prices are going back down to guidance for Q4 might be weak. But i see not proof of what he is saying. Maybe you have more info on module prices?
    �
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    I doubt module prices are going down. Suppliers have less available and each quarter this year I have had a price increase. I will get forecasting for next quarter in about a week or two.

    The only possible thing that would reduce module prices right now is if the trade dispute fees/duties are recinded.

    The manufactures are doing so well right now because the glut of panels is drying up and they can raise their prices.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Since you do planning and installation of solar systems how would you rate the quality/ease of installation differences of the panel producers that we follow here?

    CSIQ, JKS, JASO, SOL TSL, etc. Thanks
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hey Sleepy: What resources do you recommend for someone new to the solar party? What websites to track? Any "TMC investors forum" equivalent I should be reading, or is this in fact it? I have dipped my toe in in the last few weeks and of course things are going well so I need to do my research.

    That offer for a steak dinner downtown still stands. I feel you couldn't order enough that I wouldn't find the time profitable :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Of those listed that people are interested in we have installed SunPower, Canadian solar, and Trina. All of them are high quality sturdy panels. I have seen the others at trade shows and they all look to be high quality.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    "The Arizona Corporation Commission agreed in a 3 to 2 vote today that Arizona Public Service Co. may collect about $4.90 a month from new customers who provide excess power from solar panels to the utility. About 18,000 homes that are served by the company and already have solar systems won�t be affected."

    This look to be good new for Solar City. APS wanted $50-$100 fee per month, they get $4.90.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    We will go out for that dinner (or lunch) soon. I couldn't find any free websites on solar that are equivalent to TMC. Norse and I have created a website and that is our goal to get people researching and helping each other make money in the alternative energy sector; we can all learn from each other if we all do our own research and then share it. TMC is the best place to learn about Tesla, but is not a great place to talk solar or other alternative investments since most people come to this thread as an afterthought to Tesla related stuff. Our website is still a work in progress, but we hope to make it so that you can get all of your alternative energy information there, as a one stop shop. The best way to learn about the industry is to do research on your own. You just have to read the CC transcripts, follow news stories, look at all official company documents, financials, compare to peers, look at charts, etc. It is best to do the leg work on your own. I did all my research on solar on my own from primary source documents and no forums, and that was all I needed to know which companies are winners. If we all do our own research and then talk about it in a forum that is dedicated to this topic, then we can all learn from each other and make a lot better investment decisions in the future.


    As far as Gordon Johnson goes, I already told you guys not to listen to him and to do the opposite of what he says. He really has no clue what he is talking about and I am shocked that you can make it to managing partner in a research shop while being so clueless. Here are a few gems from Gordon:

    http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2013/09/24/china-polysilicon-solar-price-falling-chinese-solar-stocks-worthless-says-axiom-capital/

    "Mr. Johnson believes all Chinese solar companies except for Trina Solar (TSL) and Hanwha SolarOne (HSOL) are effectively bankrupt and their equities are worthless (for example, Yingli Green Energy (YGE), Canadian Solar (CSIQ), LDK Solar (LDK)). Trina Solar is 300% overvalued and SolarOne is 80% overvalued:"

    In the next five trading days TSL went up 50% and so did basically all solar stocks. Since he said this just less than 2 months ago, CSIQ has gone up 130%.

    Bonus video of Gordon from March 2013 and his clueless remarks:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0abAfVA_asM

    He really has no idea what he is talking about. Module prices are stabilizing, and if anything are going up. ASP's are going up very quickly in China, and none of the companies want to ship panels out of China anymore because the prices are so good there. IMO the module prices will increase in 2014, probably by a significant amount 5% - 10%. The only way that prices go down next year is if all the major players invest in new equipment and cut costs to produce panels significantly. But they will still keep margins, so it wouldn't matter.
    �
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    guest
    That sounds like a reasonable agreement as long as it is on an annual basis. Customers in our area that go for 100% have a lot of net excess generation in the summer months to offset the lower producing winter months.
    �
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    guest
    Yeah that's actually excellent news- essentially a non-issue, establishes a very low rate of collection, and puts a 'OK we gave you something' in the political bin, making the next one that much tougher. And that's in AZ where the differences in Am-PM are like day and night (ha)
    �
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    guest
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