Thứ Hai, 31 tháng 10, 2016

Alternative Energy Investor Discussions part 32

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My belief is that utilities will shift to a different charging structure, with lower marginal prices for power (reflecting only the wholesale cost of power, typically about 4-5 cents/kWh) and large fixed charges for grid interconnection, based on designed delivery capacity (amps of service). While many people are willing to put up panels, many fewer are willing to go off-grid completely. Note that this tariff structure makes net metering moot: there would be no difference in your net bill between net metering and having a separately metered usage and generation (assuming time-of-use rates).

    This tariff structure is economically efficient, but it would undermine SCTY's business model sharply. By contrast, the dealer model undermines TSLA's approach, but dealers aren't economically efficient.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I added to my long JASO position on Friday -- the price seemed badly out of step with reality.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just before CSIQ reported I sood all of my short term (i.e. Before 2016) options of it and moved the money to JASO stock at 9.5 and to some 2015 $8 calls. I'm keeping the CSIQ stock and 2016 $25 calls as I do expect it to recover at some point in the next 6-12 months.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think this will take decades to happen on a large scale and by that time storage will be cost competitive with the grid. If not, somebody will come up with a solar+storage solution to only tap the grid when required resulting in only using on site power on site and when that runs out, tap the grid. This will be a lose lose situation for the grid because they will lose the excess power provided by consumers and have heavily reduced consumer usage of grid power.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is still not a good solution to the consumer, because as Robert.Boston said, the utilities will start charging a high monthly fixed fee for transmission and distribution services. So even if you only tap the grid for a couple of emergency kWh's per month, then you may still be faced with $30 - $50 fixed monthly fees from the utility.

    I think that going off the grid is the only solution. I for one can't wait to go off the grid, because the utilities can always find ways to make you pay more. If you are relying on the grid for backup (even if you don't use it hardly at all) then the grid is of great value and benefit to you, so a high $30+ fixed fee is reasonable and you are going to end up paying it.

    Living off the grid is the best solution. Not many people would want to go that route today, but I have a feeling that there will be a lot of interested people in the future if battery storage ever becomes cheap.

    You will have to put in a bigger than necessary solar system to live off the grid, so in the best case you can simply sell excess electricity to the grid with a one-way connection where you can't buy back. This way the utilities can't charge you anything for backup since you don't need it; while they will gladly buy your excess generation.

    Once batteries are installed at homes for under $200/kWh, living off the grid becomes a reality for many. We have a long way to go, but Elon said that the cost should fall to $100 within 8 years (said 10 years, 2 years ago). So I would imagine that they can package and install these things for $200 eventually.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I don't know what the solar situation is in Illinois, but SCTY doesn't go where electricity rates are high. SCTY enters markets where there is net metering and HIGH rebates.

    I live in Texas and utility rates are really cheap here. But SCTY still does business in my TDSP area, because the transmission services provider offers a generous rebate and SCTY gets to pocket that rebate. There are a few retail providers that offer net metering as well.

    Both boxes are checked, so SCTY does business here. If you go across the street from where I live, then SCTY will not install a system for you because their TDSP does not offer any rebates.

    SCTY goes only where it can make the most money for itself, and that is where the rebates are highest. Net metering is necessary, because customers will not sign up without net metering.

    If SCTY is doing business in your area, then there is a 99%+ chance that you are better off buying a system outright from a local installer. Because if you SCTY does business in your area, then there is more than likely some kind of generous rebate, SREC, etc. that SCTY is pocketing at your loss.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'd like to go off grid too but that would require a bigger solar array than my roof can accommodate. And at maybe 100kWh of batteries or more. And that would be the situation for most people. Electricity needs to cost at least 35c/kWh (from rough calcs) with batteries costing $200/kWh installed for that to work and battery life needs to be as long as panel life.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is not true.

    10 years from now solar systems should be installed for $2/W without any tax credits (since Germany does $2.20 today) and you can get a system in the US today for under $3/W from local installers, which equals $2/W after tax credit.

    10kW solar system at $2/W = $20k
    100kWh battery @$200/kWh = $20k

    Total $40k

    Your solar system will produce 15,000kWh/year =/- depending on where you live. Lets say that you use 12,000kWh/year.

    System life = 25 years.

    375,000kWh produced over 25 years, o/w 300,000kWh is used by the homeowner
    @$40k initial investment
    = $0.13/kWh

    So using your assumptions (obviously batteries might not last a full 25-years, but solar systems may last longer than 25-years), electricity would need to cost more than $0.13/kWh (which it does already today) and not $0.35/kWh as you claim to make going off-grid economical. This does not factor in that the system owner could then sell 3,000 kWh per year back into the grid.

    I really recommend doing analysis instead of just throwing random numbers around...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Many things assumed here.
    1. I can't fit 10kW on my roof nor can most people. At 7kW my roof is fully occupied.
    2. Inverter replacements every 10-15 years.
    3. 25 year warranty doesn't mean nothing will fail, so labor for any failed parts. Lets' say battery lasts 10 years. Now you need to add in another battery or two. Even if you assume the two battery replacements in 25 years are half the cost of the original battery, that 13c is unrealistic.
    4. Doesn't account for panel degradation.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Now you are making up different assumptions. Previously you wrote:

    Electricity needs to cost at least 35c/kWh (from rough calcs) with batteries costing $200/kWh installed for that to work and battery life needs to be as long as panel life.


    This discussion is pointless, since there are too many variables and unknowns to think about, and you keep changing your assumptions.


    1. Nobody cares about your roof size. And that is why I said "many" will be able to go off the grid. I did not say "all" or even "most". Also 10-20 years from now solar technology will be different and you might easily be able to fit 15kW with more efficient solar technology.
    2. Inverters are cheap and will get cheaper. Inverter replacement would add only a fraction of a penny to the estimated cost per kWh.
    3. My solar panels have a 25-year warranty, so no repair costs need to be budgeted. I expect my panels to last 40+ years, but did not factor this into calculations.
    4. I did account for degradation. Geography plays a lot bigger role than panel degradation in this exercise.

    Once again, these calculations are pointless because there is too many moving parts and we are still a decade or two before this becomes economically feasible.

    I used your assumptions in my calculations to point out that your $0.35/kWh is not even close. Even when you apply your new assumptions, then you are still not getting anywhere close to $0.35/kWh and would be closer to half that number.

    In any case, you just made up a random $0.35/kWh, and it is way off.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    "My solar panels have a 25-year warranty" - They cover labor and materials? My panels have a 25 year output warranty and they will send a panel replacement (or additional panels to cover output at their discretion - which I can't fit anyway) but not cover labor. The everything covered warranty is only 10 years.

    P.S. My bad for putting both battery cost at 200 and assuming life = life of panels at the same time :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That is your loss, because mine are covered for "everthing" for 25 years. Another reason to get SPWR panels on your roof. BTW, I paid out of pocket (after rebates and tax credit) about $1.15/W.

    So at $1.15/W all of a sudden going off the grid becomes a lot cheaper. And note that I used $2/W in my calculations above.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hard to believe I am now in the red with CSIQ after being up nearly 96%! I plan on hanging in there for now since nothing fundamentally has changed with the company and the big post ER sell off was unwarranted (IMO).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Under the heading 'A Fool and His Money are Soon Parted'......Bought more JASO at sub $9/share.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have a feeling that heading is going to apply more to the Wall Street boys next year when you sell it for double or triple that
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Great contrarian buy signal :scared:


    The good news is that the stock can't go lower than $0.00 :rolleyes:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm certainly hoping JASO spikes back up. The $9 calls I bought for $2 back in January, which comprise almost my entire JASO portfolio at the moment, are almost worthless after this latest dive. I certainly didn't expect that to happen when I got them in January. A month or so ago I'd planned on rolling them into stock (given sleepy's statements on stock vs options) on the next spike, but missed the late April spike due to being out of the country. Missing that brief spike may cause my JASO to be a total loss.

    I really regret dropping any TSLA for solar (aggravated by buying options). There's basically no point in the past where TSLA would have done worse over a 6 month span than almost any of the solars, with CSIQ being a notable exception.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Completely disagree with last paragraph. There were several solar stocks that did better than TSLA for all of 2013: off the top of my head CSIQ, JKS, SPWR to name a few.

    I warned over and over against playing solar with options. Not just recently when times got bad. I warned especially when times were good. Most ignored those warnings, so don't feel too bad because you are not the only one losing on options.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    True. I put all those stocks in Google Finance and scrolled windows back and forth through history. TSLA has beat them pretty handily the last 6 months, but for the calendar year of 2013 it didn't. Though if you include Jan 2013 to today, the only one that wins is CSIQ. If you take the comparison back to Jan 2012, TSLA beats even CSIQ.

    The most notable windows where those noted solars crushed TSLA was the last 6 months of 2013, where TSLA dropped heavily off its high after Q3 ER.

    I suppose the problem is the solars I had (SOL, JASO, and SPWR) had, as a group, fairly poor results. SPWR being the exception, but that's been more than smacked down by JASO's flatness and SOL's...well, we know how SOL's done :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    But if you go back and use Nov 2012 as a start date, then a lot of solar stocks are outperforming TSLA to date.

    Start dates are all arbitrary and that is market timing. They way I encourage people to invest is to come up with a future PT that you think the stock will hit. If the price today is good enough to yield a return that you will be happy with once your PT is met, then buy and hold. Sell only when your PT is met or investment thesis has changed. Your PT can be 1 year out or 5 years out. There is no set timeline, but you have to have the ability to hold the whole time.

    I discourage using DC F'S and other metrics to try to prove how much a stock is worth today. You have to be forward thinking in this business.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well TSL sure is having a party today.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And who do you think was the idiot who realized his losses on TSL LEAP's and moved the money to JASO about 1 week ago? ;) Oh well, I still think JASO will outperform them, but my timing sucks ;)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ouch.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So at $1.15/W assuming $0.115/kWh you are looking at ten thousand hours to break even. About 3 years? That's pretty darn good. Where do I sign up?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not exactly. It is $1.15/Watt Peak installed. My system is 7.7kW, so about $9,000 out of pocket.

    Total system cost @$2.50/W or $21,000.
    TDSP rebate over $8,000
    30% tax credit (must have tax liability to take advantage of this since it is non-refundable just like when you buy a Tesla Model S) out of $13k (you get tax credit based on cost $21k minus rebate $8k = $13k eligible for credit). $4k tax credit
    Out of pocket cost = $9k.

    I am on pace to generate well over 12,000kWh/year and the rates here are about $0.11 - $0.16/kWh (avg. 0.12 - 0.13). That will save me $1,500 per year, so about 6 year payback period. I was paying $0.16/kWh until I switched to Green Mountain Energy who offers net metering here in Texas and they get 100% of electricity from renewables (mostly wind).

    My system should generate about 360,000kWh of electricity over 30 years, so that is $0.025/kWh production cost for me. Even without rebates and tax credits, my production cost would be $0.06/kWh without any subsidies. Even if I have to replace inverter once and roof once, it will only cost about $1k each, so that raises my production cost to $0.03/kWh over 30 years.

    Now I did get a smoking deal on a SunPower system that used scratch and dent panels (still get full 25-year product and linear output warranty; I inspected them and you wouldn't have noticed they are scratch and dent unless you knew to look for it) at $2.50/W. The good news is that even if you pay $4.40/W you are still saving a ton of money on electricity with a SunPower system.

    But even better knews is that you can buy a solar system from a reputable local installer that will install it for under $3/W in some areas (based on Theshadow's information as a solar installer). You will still get high quality Chinese panels that will produce probably 80%-90% of what the SunPower system would, with a slightly was warranty term. I went with a SPWR system, because of the great deal. But even at $4.40/W I would have gone SPWR, because higher price means higher tax credit, so out of pocket cost does not grow proportionally to increase in price per watt installed. Also, you have to factor in LCOE and not cost per watt installed. I like SPWR panels, because I bought instead of leasing, and I want my system to run 40 years, and have an iron clad warranty that will last 25 years. If you get Yingli panels, then they might go out of business in the next couple of years if they don't get their financials in order.

    You save some up front costs with Chinese panels, and if the system runs without hiccups for 30 years then Chinese is the way to go if you can get it much cheaper. I would rather pay a little extra for quality and peace of mind, but everyone is different.


    One thing I know for sure is that if you can take advantage of full 30% tax credit then buying is a significantly better option than leasing. If you don't have any cash and can't get a loan (a lot of credit unions now offer very low interest solar loans, I paid 3% on mine) then leasing is a good option as long as you get a good rate that will save you a lot of money. SCTY claims that their avg. rate is $0.141/kWh while my rate is $0.025. Some people here claimed that SCTY was offering $0.08/kWh for leases or even $0.03/kWh if you prepay, but I doubt those deals still exist (doesn't hurt to try to find out). Last year SCTY and SPWR were offering leases at below cost in order to grab market share and utilize idle capacity. With the solar industry booming now, you will not find such great deals on leases anymore.

    Now is the time to get a solar system before the 30% tax credit expires in 2.5 years, and states start scaling back rebates, and possible new tariffs on solar panels from Taiwan/China. Solar will get a lot cheaper over time, but when subsidies go away, you will be paying a lot more out of pocket than my $1.15/W.

    - - - Updated - - -

    BTW, if you are going with Chinese panels I would recommend using JA Solar panels. JA makes everything in house, because they are paranoid about quality and want to be known for panels that perform over the life of the system. They are the Chinese technological leader. I invest in SPWR and JASO, in part because of their focus on quality and efficiency, which means one less risk to worry about. The solar industry is brand new and some companies like JASO, TSL, and basically all Chinese have been around for only a decade. There is no telling if the panels will hold up 25 years. It may turn out that JASO's panels fail more than others, but odds are very unlikely for this to happen with their attention to detail.

    TSL is investing a lot to improve product quality and they will have great panels in the future too. Their older panels are hit or miss, because I have read on-line about defective batches.

    YGE is too risky, because it might go bankrupt; I don't think it will, but the risk is real.

    CSIQ, TSL, SOL, JKS are all very good options. But for peace of mind, and virtually exactly the same price, I would recommend JASO panels for your own roofs.

    - - - Updated - - -

    One last thing:

    Going with more efficient SPWR panels allows you to fit a much bigger system on your roof if it is constrained (and most are). I have a rather big house, but could only fit 2/3 on southern facing roof and 1/3 on western facing. If I went with Chinese solar panels I would have to do 50/50 and that would be a lot less generation out of the same size system due to orientation.

    I really recommend looking at solar eneregy in terms of LCOE and not cost per Watt peak!

    This is all based on my extensive research and not based on actual experience, so please take the panel recommendations with a grain of salt. Although SunPower has been in business for 30 years and they are known for quality, low degradation, and longevity.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
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    guest
    This is not always the case, because of the shape and size of the roof. The SPWR panels are wider than standard panels and this sometimes impacts how many you can fit. It is most likely true when dealing with smaller hip to hip roofs. (The face of the roof looks like a trapezoid and not a rectangle.)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Of course you are correct. But in general, more efficient panels mean less roof space required. There might be some rare instances where this is not the case due to shape or size, but those would be exceptions.

    If you lay down 5kW of SPWR panels next to 5kW of average Chinese panels, then the Chinese panels will take up an area that is 30% bigger vs. SPWR.

    But even in extreme cases, I highly doubt that you will ever find a roof where an average Chinese panel would fit a larger system than a high efficiency panel from SPWR. Unless you look hard for a roof that would fit only 1 SPWR panel, but 2 Chinese panels.

    It is pretty much given that a 30% more efficient panel will allow you to fit a larger size system on your roof.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sleepy, or anyone else - could you please stretch a tape measure over some SPWR panels? I was unsuccessful going through normal channels to find their dimensions, and am looking to make use of some rooftop real estate that may be opening up.....
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Isn't it right on the data sheet?

    X-Series X21 panels are 41.2 in x 61.4 in for example, right off the PDF on the second page, bottom right.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looks like their E-series are same size. They have all info on their website:

    http://us.sunpower.com/homes/products-services/solar-panels/e-series/

    41.2" x 61.4" for SunPower with a total area of 2,530 square inches

    by comparison a typical 60 cell Chinese module http://jinkosolar.com/product_detail_36.html

    39" x 65" for Jinko's 60 cell module (I believe that all Chinese have same dimensions for 60-cell) for a total area of 2,537 square inches.

    You can see that the Chinese modules are slighly narrower, but taller than SunPower. Sunpower's total module area size is smaller, but only by a hair. So essentially the same size.

    On SunPower's website, they claim that x-series panels will generate over 75% more electricity over the 25-year life of the system compared to standard panels. Their assumptions are a little agressive, because they use 0.25% degradation for themselves vs. 1.0% for the panels they used to compare. In reality SunPower has averaged 0.13% degradation, but Chinese solar panels guarantee no more than 0.5% degradation. So, overall I would say that a SunPower system might do 50% more electricity per square inch and not 75% as they claim.

    They also claim that a SunPower panel will generate 8-10% more electricity per rated watt, and I can believe it because my panels get excellent low light generation and perform well in the rain. This is a big reason why using "cost per watt installed" doesn't make much sense. With regular solar panels you get about 2%-4% initial degradation straight out of the box due to LID (light induced degradation); SPWR claims 0% initial degradation.

    Overall, SPWR panels really do produce more electricity and do perform a lot better. But I would caution against some of their claims that might be a little too aggressive. They did a comparison study against some panels that they owned after buying out some manufacturers in South Africa. I would imagine that those panels were of inferior quality to the quality tier 1 Chinese panels you can buy. I am not a big fan of "stretching" the truth like this with fuzzy math or using weaker comps, but I guess that all companies do it, and even Elon Musk isn't much different in this regard.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I just came across a very intriguing article in the WaPo about solar roadways. It's about Scott and Julie Brusaw, an electrical engineer and his psychotherapist wife, who have been developing solar cells expressly designed for paving the roads. They estimate that covering all the roads, highways, and parking lots in the U.S. would cover the energy needs of the whole country 3 times over. According to the article, that means 3 times more than what could be accomplished by merely covering all the roofs of every home in America.

    As a bonus, the roads would also be able to light up in the dark and de-ice their own surface.

    Forget roofs, are solar roads the next big thing?

    At 2010 prices, the whole thing can be built for the low, low price of $56 trillion. Be that as it may, they've started an Indiegogo campaign, already raising $500k out of a $1mil target.

    I'd love to invest in the company that starts doing this. Here's to driving Tesla on a solar road.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Techmaven and I looked into this a few months ago when it was written up on another green energy site, I forget which.

    To me this is a great idea in theory that in practice would be rather impractical. Also, rather unnecessary given the more than adequate rooftop surface area that is still vastly underutilized in most US areas, ready for solar panels. Also, roads get decimated where I am regularly, and shattered glass and circuitboards littered all over the street would be a hazard that I'm not sure citizens would tolerate vs. the old familiar gravel and potholes.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not saying you're wrong, since I don't have any more information than what they said in the article, but FWIW they address this, saying the surface material is stronger and more durable than asphalt, and also easier to replace.

    Yeah, maybe it sounds too good to be true, and a closer look may reveal a thousand little things that are wrong with it. But at least it's a bold vision, and they are seriously trying to do it, so they have my unreserved admiration (and a few of my $ for their campaign.) I think the world has too many "sensible" people and too few Don Quixotes. Such wide-eyed visionaries are absolutely necessary to help us claw our way out of the many insurmountable messes we've been digging ourselves into. Even if they fail, they are inspiring.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Techmv and Sleepy-

    Remember not to lean on me when you need data.....:redface:

    Thanks, guys:smile:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Oh I think it would be cool, and I'm all for big dreaming. Just thought this idea was a little worse off than it might be if they considered the practical realities of American roadways and/or thought about other places solar panels might go if they truly care about the environment. So much time and energy spent on this, which I feel is sadly doomed to failure...I just like the Elon Musk style better -- make something better than existing solutions by attacking known pain points, not creating more.

    Edit: Robert, feel free to move this and above post if desired.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I don't think it's doomed to failure.

    To be sure, I also don't see this covering all roads (or even a single road) any time soon. But they don't have to do that to succeed; they can start small. For instance, for the right price, I'd buy a driveway made of that stuff. I'm not a fan of shovelling all that snow we get up here all the freaking time. I could see sidewalks and parking lots built that way, too, both of which they talk about in the video I linked to. Of course the idea is crazy, and we all have this reflex of enumerating all the reasons why it cannot possibly work. But that's exactly why I root for people like them; it is unbelievably hard to keep working on stuff like this, when it's clear for everybody that it's just not gonna work. To borrow a famous phrase from a guy I trust, you could say it's like eating a glass sandwich.

    That same guy also said that if something is truly important you should try it even if there is a high probability of failure. So, I disagree that their energy is better spent elsewhere. In fact, I think they're doing exactly what they should be doing: working on something completely outrageous that might actually just work. Fortunately, it seems quite a few people think their ideas have merit (including the Department of Transportation.)

    We should celebrate them. Here's to the crazy ones.

    --
    Edit: Moderator, sorry I didn't see your post. Please feel free to move mine as appropriate. Also, thanks for the link, I wasn't aware of that thread.
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    SolarCity COO said in the Q1 earning call that tariff issues is hedged.

    "At our scale, purchasing has not been a problem. We have not seen any increase in module costs. Again, we have a scale, which makes a big, big difference to buyers. We have got a number of very active conversations with Chinese and non-Chinese suppliers for long-term volume equipments in the low $0.70 per watt for modules, which headed us very against any tariff issues. So we feel good about that. And as I said, the operating cost on a like-for-like base will be continuing to decline quarter-on-quarter and we expect that to continue. As Lyndon said, we continue driving more volume to our fixed infrastructure or dollars per watt continue coming down."
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  • 1/1/2015
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    And July it gets worse when we add anti dumping penalties, effectively shutting down our market even more.
    FUBAR

    One Flew Over The Cuckoos Nest
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    "SolarCity and REC Group Sign 100 Megawatt OEM Supply Agreement With Option to Increase to 240 MW"

    installers are moving away from Chinese solar panels?
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  • 1/1/2015
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    in fact, tariff on Chinese panels will kill all the small solar installers, which is good for long term SolarCity's business, because SolarCity has economies of scale, and will get good pricing on non-Chinese made panels.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    although true from a micro-SCTY standpoint. A macro SCTY business would do much better long term if the Solar market expanded very rapidly in the US for all players (similar to Tesla for EVs)- the tariffs hurt that; and another big one coming in July- all we're doing is hurting SCTY potential by slowing the market expansion imho
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    agree, I think this solar tariff is political, same with the hacking charges, a retaliation on Chinese buying Russian natural gas.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    yep- it's a political hack job all around by all parties;
    the good side is that it signifies a innate belief Solar is going to take over power production and everybody wants a piece of it - so we all fight for the desert before the main course is served
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This sentence could not be further from the truth. Can we stop with this SCTY cheerleading nonsense here on TMC already? As soon as 1 SCTY chearleder gets banned a new one pops up spewing the same nonsense as the one before. It is getting quite annoying already.

    Nobody is going out of business, and let's not use words such as "fact". Let's stop pretending that these tariffs benefit SCTY, since they are hurt this most by tariffs, as evidenced by their 50% stock slide.
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    guest

    all you small cap Chinese solar stocks pumpers should be banned instead.
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    This debate will land in 'snippiness' sooner than later guys if it becomes personal.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    How long are we going to allow the same person to create multiple identities on TMC and continue spewing the same false information on SCTY?

    It is pretty obvious that we are dealing with the same person here. You can tell by the tone of the posts, the exact same style, and the exact same SCTY can do no wrong attitude. Everything that happens in the world is a benefit to SCTY:

    - A recession will benefit SCTY immensely
    - New tariffs on SCTY's raw material is a huge benefit to them.
    - More competition is a benefit to them
    - Less competition is a benefit to them
    - If the wind blows from the southeast in northeast corner of Tanzania, it is obviously a huge benefit to SCTY.

    None of this irresponsible SCTY stock pumping is doing anyone here any favors. People on TMC are interested in finding good investment opportunities and like to know the downside as well. But if we keep pretending like every SCTY negative is a positive and every SCTY risk is a complete non-issue, then that is setting up a lot of people for failure and a lot of people will lose money on SCTY when things go wrong.

    DaveH right of the bat started bashing Chinese solar stocks with his second post; first post was about praising SCTY of course. Then the trend is exactly the same as with the other SCTY trolls who all created an account one after another, as one would dissappear (probably after getting banned or wearing out his/her welcome) a new member pops right up with the exact same posting style and in some cases with a very similar looking name.

    It is all the same person trolling here.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    How about we look at some facts instead of making stuff up and calling it a "fact":

    Fact 1 - SCTY can sell you a system for about $4-$4.50/W. A local installer can sell you that exact same system for $2.70-$3.00/W

    Fact 2 - A solar tariff means that SCTY will have to pay $0.10 - $0.20 more for panels and local installers will pay that much more as well (both compared to how much they were paying before).

    Fact 3 - Post tariffs a local installer will sell a system for $3/W instead of $2.85/W, which is still significantly lower than what SCTY can offer. Why is that? Hmm, maybe fact 4 has an answer for that:

    Fact 4 - SCTY DOES NOT HAVE ECONOMIES OF SCALE! It has a bloated corporate structure. Maybe one day it will have economies of scale; I really don't know, but I am extremely doubtful that it will. It does get to save maybe $0.05-$0.10/W on panel costs and maybe $0.01-$0.02/W on inverters, and maybe a few pennies on racking and other materials. But it has a huge bloated corporate structure that more than offsets those savings by half an order of magnitude. It's SG&A and Interest Expense was $88m last quarter and they delivered a little over 100MW. That is $0.80/W of unnecessary bulls*** costs that local installers do not have to pay for. This bloated corporate structure will make it impossible for SCTY to be competitive in the future. Also, it is not like the SG&A cost per watt is declining with scale. It is growing out of control and just by eyeballing it, the ratio is pretty constant over the past several quarters even though installations have grown significantly (I will run numbers later when I have time).

    Fact 5 - The Sunshot Scenario is envisioning solar installed at $1/W by 2020 and $1.50/W for residential. If SCTY is still paying $0.80/W for SG&A costs, then the company is royally screwed and will go bankrupt with its current business model

    My opinion is that SCTY will be fine and prosper, but they are going to have to adapt and change their business model several more times in the future to stay relevant. They can prosper for now, while taking away tax credits and other rebates from customers, but this will not last too long unless they change their business model drastically or they cut down on their bloated corporate structure. If they don't do that, then a bunch of shareholders will be left holding the bag and a few SCTY executives will be laughing their ass off all the way to the bank.

    The road that SCTY is on right now is in no way sustainable and they will fail miserably if their SG&A costs don't fall and I don't think they will. Excerpt from 10k:

    We expect sales and marketing costs to increase significantly in absolute dollars in future periods as we continue to grow our sales headcount and expand our marketing efforts to continue to grow our business.

    We anticipate that we will incur additional administrative headcount costs to support the growth in our business, our financing fund arrangements and the additional costs of being a public filer.?


    Good luck to all SCTY investors, you will need it.

    BTW, I am long SCTY but only have a few thousand dollars in it, so not much exposure.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow just looked at my solar stocks and I am taking a beating. Canadian solar down 31%, SolarCity down 27% and SunPower down 4%. Fortunately my Tesla stock has made up for it but not by much. I just hope the slump does not last much longer.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Man....I have been watching mine daily. Paper profits don't seem real but paper losses.....:cursing:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just be glad you are looking at solar stocks and not solar options. My solar stocks are hurting but my solar options are on life support.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Last year I did a pre-paid lease with SCTY for $1.09/W. No escalator clause, the power is mine to use for 20 years. They even offered me the MA SRECs at twice that price, if I wanted them.

    They don't want to SELL the systems, they want to LEASE them. Thus they do quote higher prices on a sale, so yes, if you are buying you can do better than SCTY.

    But watt for watt, the SCTY lease was the least expensive (by far) of the 4 quotes I received (2 were PPA lease, 2 were outright buy). They were also the most professional and nicest to deal with, AND they designed a larger wattage system than the other guys with a very slick roof placement algorithm. I'm very pleased with the results one year on, even if I don't own it.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sound like a broken record but consider solar power, very happy with my options
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks for the information, but by quoting my numbers out of context you are misleading by making an apples to oranges comparison. I am talking pre-tax, pre-rebates, pre-SRECs numbers, while you are using post numbers:

    Apples to Apples: I paid virtually that same amount per watt as you did to outright buy my SPWR solar system, and this is in Texas where we don't have any generous state incentives or SREC's program like Massachusetts. My system will probably produce 20%+ more electricity over the first 20 years due to better low light performance, degradation, LID, etc. It will also probably last twice as long as your 20 year lease, when you have to give yours back or sign a new deal. So apples to apples you probably paid more than double of what I did for the same electrons. Anyway, comparing what two individuals got does not make a market.

    More Apples to Apples: SCTY's avg. lease per most recent presentation is 14.1c/kWh, while my system is 2.5c/kWh. Therefore if I went with SCTY, I would probably be paying 6 times (500%-600%) more.

    SCTY still charged you over $4/W for your system, but for 20 years instead of owning it. They pocketed $1/W for Tax credit, $1/W for SRECs and MA rebates, $1/W for MACRS. Also last year SCTY, SPWR, and others were leasing out systems at a loss just to gain market share. You could have gotten some really sweet deals 12 months ago. I am not sure if you fall into that category, but if you do then you were probably better off leasing than buying. But those deals do not exist today, and buying is a lot better option under 95%+ circumstances

    This lease strategy works well for SCTY today, because they are able to charge $4-$5 for the system (even when leasing), which gives them huge tax credits, MACRS depr. for tax equity partners, and a lot of generous local rebates on the table in many states and cities.

    5 years from now, systems will be installed at $1.50/W with no rebates or tax credits (although a 10% tax credit might be available post 2016), and minimal MACRS depreciation as the system is worth a lot less than today. So MACRS might save them $0.30/W if they lease (who would want to lease a system when you can buy for such a cheap price?), but their bloated corporate structure is costing them $0.80/W if they don't bring that down.

    SCTY is on a path to insolvency in its solar business. I have very high hopes for their battery storage business thanks to Tesla. But IMO battery storage will have to be their saving grace. If this battery storage does not materialize fast enough then SCTY is going to hit a downward spiral with no bottom in sight.

    If I signed a SCTY lease today at 14.1c/kWh and 5-years from now, it only costs $1.50/W to install a system outright. Then I would most likely break that deal with SCTY, tell them to take the panels off my roof, and go buy a system elsewhere. Either that or I would force SCTY to renegotiate the terms of our lease deal. I fear that many people in the future will at least consider this option, while some will move forward with it if solar really does get as cheap as it should be.

    SCTY's bloated corporate structure is going to become a huge liability once the cost of solar falls below $2/W installed. Quite frankly, we are already at $2/W in Germany today, so there is no reason why the US won't get there within a couple of years. It is all low hanging fruit that is left to get the costs down, since panels are already cheap enough.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    now you just sound like a desperate short.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    How about you stop taking my quotes out of context and read the whole thing? I also noted that I am not short (and if I was, I would not be desperate, since it has been easy money shorting SCTY over the past 3 months) and in fact am long via risk-free delayed construct deep in the money J15 bull call spreads $30/$40 that I set up a while back. Maybe you can add something of value to the discussion some time instead of bashing...

    Here is what I wrote and I stand by it (until SCTY can prove otherwise):

    Fact 4 - SCTY DOES NOT HAVE ECONOMIES OF SCALE! It has a bloated corporate structure. Maybe one day it will have economies of scale; I really don't know, but I am extremely doubtful that it will. It does get to save maybe $0.05-$0.10/W on panel costs and maybe $0.01-$0.02/W on inverters, and maybe a few pennies on racking and other materials. But it has a huge bloated corporate structure that more than offsets those savings by half an order of magnitude. It's SG&A and Interest Expense was $88m last quarter and they delivered a little over 100MW. That is $0.80/W of unnecessary bulls*** costs that local installers do not have to pay for. This bloated corporate structure will make it impossible for SCTY to be competitive in the future. Also, it is not like the SG&A cost per watt is declining with scale. It is growing out of control and just by eyeballing it, the ratio is pretty constant over the past several quarters even though installations have grown significantly (I will run numbers later when I have time).

    Fact 5 - The Sunshot Scenario is envisioning solar installed at $1/W by 2020 and $1.50/W for residential. If SCTY is still paying $0.80/W for SG&A costs, then the company is royally screwed and will go bankrupt with its current business model
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's getting pretty snippy in here.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    "$0.80/W for SG&A" - I'm not sure a mom and pop installer could be much less until we reach a point where everyone is aware that solar is a no brainer decision.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    A mom and pop shop does not spend anywhere near close to $0.80/W on SG&A and Interest Exp. Their interest expense is most likely $0, unless they had to take out loans to start a business. But installing solar systems is a low capital business to enter, such as landscaping. You need a few tools upfront, but then purchase inventory as you need it.

    I highly doubt that a local installer spends a lot of money on marketing either. They might do some flyers, on-line ads, etc. but nobody spends a lot on advertising as SCTY does.

    Let me just iterate that the SG&A costs are for sales and marketing expenses as well as general and administratitive expenses. This is back office unnecessary stuff that a mom and pop shop does not have to incur at all. These costs do not include costs for actually installing the panels or salaries of those who install them. Those costs get lumped into COGS, and mom and pop shops incur these as well.

    SCTY SG&A+interest Exp = ~$0.80/W
    Mom and Pop SG&A Exp = <$0.10/W if I had to guess.

    Running a lean and mean mom and pop operation gives you a huge advantage in this business, because you don't have a bloated corporate structure that eats away all of the profits.

    SCTY can prosper greatly under today's conditions, where it sells systems for $4+/W, but when 5 years from now systems will be installed at $1.50/W, SCTY is going to go bankrupt. The only way it doesn't go bankrupt is if:

    1. It truly does achieve economies of scale, such that it installs 5GW - 10GW per year, and keeps SG&A at ~$1b/year so that the SG&A/W cost goes down to about $0.10 - $0.20/W. I really don't think that this is possible, but I may be wrong. They are already running at $0.5b in SG&A doing on 0.5GW/year. I doubt they could increase installations 10 or 20-fold while only increasing SG&A 2-fold.

    2. Battery technolody becomes a wildly profitable business for them.

    I think that SCTY's only chance for long term prosperity lies with the latter option. I think that it will enjoy huge benefits of battery storage at least initially. But it will only last 5-years too as others begin making cheap batteries as well.

    The problem with the solar industry is that costs are declining fast (like 50% every 2 years), so if you have a bloated corporate structure then you are going to get left behind. You have to run lean and mean and that is why mom and pop shops are so much better options today than SCTY, RGSE, Vivint, etc. The big boys charge more than $4/W while mom and pop can do it for less than $3/W in many areas.

    Not to mention that it always feels nice to support local business instead of filling up the coffers for some conglomerate that is going to repatriate that cash right back into its home state.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The storage is why I'm invested (very little) in scty but might buy some LEAPS. But 10c/W is too little, especially for solar. A business might spend 5-10 hours at 5-10 houses before landing one customer. That would already be 20c/W in just time.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Things getting a little heated in the solar camp lately. Let's keep the temperature cool please guys.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am not sure what the customer acquisition costs are for mom and pop shops, but I do run a small business from home and have seen the books of a lot of different small business by doing their financial statement preparation. For our business, we went door to door with fliers that were really cheap, advertised for free on Craigslist, and then grew our business for free from word of mouth and referral bonuses. Other businesses grow the same with minimal marketing budgets.

    I also like to at least estimate numbers (even though they can be wildly inaccurate) instead of guessing. So lets go back to your example of using 5-10 hours at 5-10 houses to generate one lead:

    Value of your time or hiring someone to do it = ~$20-$30/h (you can probably hire someone for a lot less)
    5-10 hours = ~$200
    Average system size = 6,000W
    Customer acquisition cost = $200/6000W = $0.03/W (and not $0.20/W as you wrote).

    In reality though most small business owners will spend their own time for business leads and not charge anything for it (other than a salary for tax write-off purposes, but that salary is paid no matter how much time you spend on marketing so no incremental cost).

    Alternatively you can grow your business from word of mouth and offer your customers a $200 referral bonus for everyone who puts a solar system on their roof. This is also $0.03/W.

    You can do cheap fliers, social media marketing (which is very effective) for free, and other tactics that don't cost a lot of money.

    Other than customer acquisition costs, a mom and pop shop has virtually no SG&A expenses other than accounting fees. Most of your accounting can get done for around $1000/year, so that is just a drop in the bucket.

    SCTY and others such as RGSE have to meet all public company compliance standards, Sarbanes Oxley, 10k's, 10q's, conflict mineral disclosures, proxy statements, GAAP compliance, IFRS accounting, external audits, internal audits, etc. Because of the huge corporate structure you have to hire thousands of people to do A/P, A/R, Tax, general accounting, finance, projections, market research, sales staff, marketing staff, HR, legal, pay outrageous executive compensation, etc. None of these expenses are necessary to put a freaking solar system on a roof.

    There is a reason why you don't see many successful nationwide landscaping companies (I actually can't even name one such company). There is no way that you can build up a conglomerate with all of these unnecessary back office expenses and compete on price and quality with the local mom and pop landscaping companies.

    Solar installation is exactly the same way. You simply cannot compete with mom and pop shops because of your huge bloated corporate structure.

    Maybe SCTY has some master plan to stay relevant here in the future, but I just don't see it happening once installation costs fall below $2/W and all of the tax credits and state rebates are taken away. It might happen, but there is just way too much risk involved for my liking. Which leads to me the conclusion that I have come to several times before:

    Why own SCTY when you can buy TSLA instead? Both stocks are highly correlated to each other, both are pricing in several years of future growth, both are in the renewable energy/technology arena, both have Elon Musk (although one more than the other), and both will benefit from battery technology.

    The difference though is that TSLA is operating in a market with fast declining costs, but with growing ASP's (as cars get more expensive every year). Whereas, SCTY operates in a market with fast declining costs, but with significantly declining ASP's (such as 40%-60% decrease every 2-3 years).

    The only thing that excites me about SCTY is their potential for battery storage leadership, but that is still a big unknown. If they can find a way to incorporate battery technology to tap into a demand response program offered by Independent System Operators (ISO's), and assuming that it is wildly profitable, then it could be something to get excited about. But that is still like 3+ years away and not a sure thing.

    Like I said before, I think that we will hit a recession in about 3 years, which is when I expect SCTY to begin ramping up battery installations. If the market punished SCTY heavily, then I will be looking to get in then at around $30/share. On the other hand if SCTY is at $100 - $200/share before said recession 3 years from now, then I will be looking to short it heavily as a hedge against my other long solar positions or as a straight directional bet.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I own a small solar company and my advertising budget is extremely small. I consider my web presence advertising. I have the server fees, I was in IT for 14 years so I run my own server, built the website with the help of a SCORE counselor that was a retired exec from Ketchum advertising. I pay an SEO guy, a few top quality yard signs, branding for our vehicles, one brochure, and business cards. We also exhibit a few trade shows, branded some shirts, coats, and 500 outdoor brand stickers for hard hats and the equipment we install. Which gets us leads when our customers show their friends their system and they snap a pic of the sticker and call us.

    My best roi on advertising was those 500 stickers I bought.

    My advertising expenses last year for all of the above was 1.3% of gross sales.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest


    5-10 hrs * 5-10 houses = 25 - 100 hours, lets take 50 hrs (7 * 7 approx) * $25/hr = $1250. 1250/6000 = ~20c

    You are also assuming that the mom and pop shop has no interest in growing. Otherwise they need office space, someone to answer phones etc. Cheap fliers etc. works but when you want someone to spend 15-20k it needs a lot more. Some minimum wage jockey coming over to my house to educate me about solar is not going to cut it. Even if an installer offers a 200$ referral bonus, that is an additional 3c/W on top of the existing 20c unless there is some way to guarantee the business.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Hmm what would you calculate your selling expenses to be /W sold?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    New 52-week high for SPWR. Though we have a long way to go to hit the ATH.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'd bought June JASO options about 5 months ago. When JASO poked its nose up over 10.50, I got out since that's around the best it'd been in at least a month and I had to get out by the end of the week. I'd set another limit order to buy stock after...which never got hit because things just kept going up. I managed to almost completely miss today's gains.

    The stock has inevitably dropped every time after one of these spikes, so we'll see if now that I don't have a position this is the one time it takes off and never comes back.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just sold some JASO july $12 calls for $0.50. It's only 20% of my JASO position, if it keeps going up I wills ell some more at a higher spot etc, but I'll keep 40% or so untouched to let them run :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow, JASO managed to close at nearly exactly $11...taking a nice little bump near the end to get there. Perfectly screwing most folks with $11 strikes on put/call. I'm not normally one to put much credence in market manipulation, but having the week's action finish out that way strains credulity to the utmost.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well I rolled today my SPWR LEAPs to higher strikes to the same delta and pocketing a few grand in the process. Went from $22 strike for Jan '15 to $33 and from $25 Jan '16 to $35. So far so good :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Actually the worst part was that it finished at 11.01. I had to buy back my short calls (covered calls) instead of just letting them expire, and rolled them up to 12's for next month. Same with SPWR, rolled my 39 short calls (covered calls) up to short-42's for 3 months out.

    I still think that the SCTY movement is mostly shorts covering and we'll see some pullback. Thoroughly enjoyed the conversation in the other thread about scty, but my simplistic view is that solar city is burning a ton of cash, issuing stock, and in a field that is getting more and more crowded (granted, they have an overabundance of clients and they have brand name recognition), but in order to bring a factory up to speed i think they will be burning more in the next 3 years than wall street likes to see, and wallstreet only looks 3 years out at the farthest (IMO). I think that's why the short interest is so high. Many retailers take a longer view and don't mind a <7% return each year as long as there's progress, and wall street calculates the present day value discounting 7%, finds it overvalued, and takes a short view, so you get 35% of the float short and then some good news sparks a 25% rally and wallstreet gets the screw this time- the last 15% on top of that 20% rise is just pure short covering. I saw the numbers at short analytics and if i recall correctly, it went from ~50-60% daily short to 30-35% over the past 3 days. That says "massive cover" to me.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not sure I understand your choice of strike price. Your buying calls because you believe stock is going up and your still trailing the actual price. Your best investment would lead the price not trail it
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    mario, did you go $ for $ (i'm assuming not, since you pocketed money) or did you #of contracts for #of contracts?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    are you shorting tsla, z, amzn, nflx too?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I had both short $11 calls and short $11 puts, so it worked out perfectly for me :)

    Screw the MM! If you can't beat them, join them. I took a play right out of their book and shoved those calls down the MM's throat, so that they can get a taste of their own medicine.

    I rolled the short puts to July $12's and pocketed $1.28, and bought back the short $11's for 0.03 about 10 seconds before close.

    BTW, one time I had short TSLA let's call it $230's and the stock closed at $230.01. But I never got called to deliver stock. If you are long calls that expire ITM, then you can call your broker up to 5:30 EST on Friday to not take delivery of stock and let them expire worthless. I assume this happens a lot when they finish 0.01 ITM, but I am just guessing.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looking at SCTY from purely a short-term trading view, here are some thoughts:
    1. Next 5 days - difficult to say. Usually after a big squeeze like this, you usually get some profit-taking but SCTY held strong into the end of week. Shows that there was still buyers. Also, completely possible that the Silevo acquisition changes the equation for fund managers (adds additional value). It's possible we see funds acquiring SCTY and that pushes the stock even further.

    2. Next several weeks - technicals look very, very good. SCTY had formed a base in recent months and this gives the foundation for a move up if there's a catalyst (which the Silevo acquisition was). The breakout move was on high volume. It's possible that this past week's breakout was a pocket pivot and in the next few weeks we see SCTY in the 70s and higher. Once it gets to the mid-70s, people will be talking about ATHs being in reach (88.35).

    Currently the markets are in an uptrend. Momentum/growth stocks are in an uptrend. This really isn't a market to short these stocks. Rather, the higher probability move for the short-term trader is to buy on pullbacks and sell when it's extended. Follow the trend, not fight it... until the trend is over.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Presumably at different times? Are you typically selling puts when the stock is low and calls when it's high (relative to highs/lows the last few months)?

    JASO hasn't worked out too well for me. Being completely flat for 6 months has definitely hurt. Lost maybe 35% I guess on what I thought were far enough out options at the time that it'd move at least a little. I'll be buying back on what seems to be regular dips towards 9ish...or more likely I'll miss out completely as it goes roaring off never to be seen again.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Most solar options have huge premiums so buying OTM contracts makes the break even point at a terribly high price so it'll be hard to break even. Therefore I prefer slightly ITM options. However my SPWR LEAPs had gotten deep ITM and were basically tracking with a delta on 1 so I preferred to get the same leverage with higher strikes, but with slightly more contracts, but with the same delta. If SPWR moves up some more (i.e. 45 or so) I'll move up again cashing out some profit in between.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I went delta for delta :) So I got 33% more contracts on the 2015 and 25% more contracts on 2016 LEAPs. At the same time I pocketed ca 20% of the cash.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No, he's short a straddle at 11. Given sleepy's style, I'd guess he legged into it, opening up the short puts about a month or two ago and recently opening up the short calls this past week. The play is all about option decay, and sleepyhead- nicely done! In response to your story about 0.01 -in the money short calls not being assigned, let me tell you another story that I think makes the opposite argument:

    There was a failed lawsuit against a brokerage house because the guy bringing the lawsuit, the client, had bought far out of the money GOOG calls cheaply, I think 10 of them. It's early on friday and he sees that google is 40 dollars out of the money, so he goes on vacation. Well, google spikes 40.38 in the last hour of the day, putting him 0.38 in the money and he didn't bother to check his account that weekend because he was on vacation so he gets automatically exercised.

    So he gets 1000 shares of google, like $600,000 purchased in his account (price was like 600 at the time), gets a margin call and on monday google opens back where it was-40 dollars lower, so they sell him out at a loss of 40*1000=40,000. So he sued, and lost I think. I'm pretty sure it's a true story.

    So I don't want to be short a call that's 1 penny in, get the short stock position when it gets assigned, and then wake up another solar pop.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Last week I sold some JASO June 11 covered calls (terrible timing). I bought back most of them, but let a few run because I am overweight on JASO anyway and did not mind if some shares would have been called away. As JASO finished on 11.01, 1k shares have now been called away. I really do hope there is no pop on monday ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That is exactly correct on the timing. I sold the JASO $11 puts initially for May expiration and rolled them to June $11; on Friday, I rolled them to July $12's (although I probably should have just let them expire). I then sold some $11 June calls a couple weeks back for $0.20 and then sold some more on Tuesday or Wednesday for $0.46 when JASO was at $11.29. I knew that the MM would bring it back down below $11 for OE.

    I don't really recommend selling puts because it ties up a lot of capital. I sold them thinking that they will expire worthless in May and that if I was wrong and JASO went down, then the capital I preserved (that is restricted due to short puts) will be available to go long JASO on weakness. Unfortunately it doesn't work this way, since as JASO goes down, the margin requirement goes up and more capital gets tied up. Selling puts is only good if you really want to buy stock, but don't like the current price it is trading at.

    I can believe the Google call option story, and quite frankly that guy was a dumbass for suing, because it was a slam dunk case for the brokerage and there was no way that this guy was going to win the lawsuit. You have to be really careful when dealing with options on OE day. Even if your short options expire worthless, someone can still exercise them against you if there is some big after hours movement. E.g. you are short $11 JASO put options, and JASO finishes $11.01. Your options expire worthless and all is good; but the option holder has up to 5:30pm EST on Friday to call his brokerage to exercise if something were to happen. Let's say that some news broke out and JASO tanks to $9 in after hours. The person who bought your puts could call his brokerage on Friday and exercise his $11 puts while simultaneously buying the stock for $9 in AH; to capture the $2 spread. Since you are short puts, you will have to buy the stock for $11, even though it is only worth $9 right now. Have to be very careful, and this is a very real risk.

    Going back to my situation, I would not want to risk holding my $11 short JASO call, but wouldn't mind risking holding my short $11 JASO puts. I don't mind buying the stock at $11, but would not want to short it at $11. So closing out or rolling the short calls was a must for me, but holding the short puts would not have been a risk to me at all (since I had cash to buy the stock if necessary, and wouldn't mind buying it for $11 anyway).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I guess whether you hold the calls or the puts short is all dependent on whether you believe in the "long term story" of the company. I have been tossing over in my head whether the solar pop will be faded over the next few months, or if the Iraq issues were just a catalyst that was needed to bring solar back in line with a more fair value, not oversold.

    In regard to your 5:30 pm comment- is that brokerage specific, and is that Option-expiration-date specific? In talking to a fidelity representative, i had the impression that weekly (not monthly) options have a different time for the last chance phone-call to exercise. I thought that weeklies had till 4:30, and monthlies had until much later, but the discrepancy could be that we are at different brokerages. I also was wondering if it's possible to choose to exercise all the way until saturday at noon. i have only read some of the CBOE booklet and haven't come across a hard and fixed time yet.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SunPower is piloting home battery storage with KB Home:

    SunPower and KB Home Partner on Home Energy Storage Solutions - Jun 24, 2014

    View attachment 52224
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    How on earth are they going to save the homeowner $216/mo with a 1.4kW system? The sun must shine 24 hrs a day in Irvine.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You clearly don't pay CA electric rates. We only need 8 hours of sun since our rates are 3x the rest of the country.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    We pay about .16 /kWh 24/7 in VT. If you install solar with net metering you are not allowed to have TOU rates. Are you saying the hrs that the sun is shining you pay about .48/kWh? That would be highway robbery.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Top rate with SCE I think is somewhere in the 35-40 cent range? It's on a tier scale depending on your usage but almost every home is in tier five...even with no A/C as is the case in my home.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    $216/mo is outrageous as a power bill for a 3600 sq ft house anyway. What are they made of, black paper?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There is an EV in the garage.

    I see average $200 electric bills in our area all the time for homes with much less than 2200 sqft. Heating season has much more of an impact in my area than ac does.

    Plus you get people with 5 tv's a few cable boxes, video game systems, computers, routers, iPads, cell phones, an old beer fridge in the garage and it all adds up really quickly. Oh yea, can't forget the pool and hot tub.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    add two reef aquarium systems and high ceilings and you are desribing my home. Ashamed to admit my electric bill in the sumners can be $350 easily
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My monthly average over the whole year is about $600. More in the winter. That's about 50k kWh per year. An electritiy is dirt cheap in Norway compared with most other things.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Isn't the house in question new construction in CA? Also before solar, you would hope that new construction would use better insulation, good windows, make sure everything is sealed right etc. I guess I can't compare with mine easily with only three people, 2300 sq ft in VA with a Leaf at marginally over half that. This is Irvine - http://www.weather.com/weather/wxclimatology/monthly/graph/USCA0517 - they wouldn't need much heating/cooling at all for a well insulated house.

    Oh and no pool
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Also no pool. 5 year old house, triple glazing, electric heat pump, heat exchanger on ventilation, large windows letting in much sun even in winter. We use about 8 GW a year. Although we bathe sparingly, but that's OK because it's always windy here on the Swedish west coast. Partake most meals in the glazed veranda Feb - Nov.

    Also, no EV - yet. Still saving up.

    EDIT: Almost forgot, thinking about putting some solar on part of the roof, like 5 kW.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    They weren't talking about your total electric bill, just the "savings" of $216/mo. Regardless, it's a crock of BS. Unless the sun shines 24/7 for 365 days a year, or the rates are .45/kWh or more the entire time the sun is shining, you can't save that much with a 1.4kW system.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    They may be talking about using the batteries to offset the time of use charges. Which are the most expensive rates. That's the big draw for commercial to use batteries.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hey guys, I misread this one initially as well. What they are saying is that their ENERGY SAVING home with a 1.4kW solar system will save you $216/month on electricity when compare to typical used/resale home without the energy saving installation and without a solar system.

    They are not claiming that the solar system will save $216, but rather that the entire home will save $216/month vs. typical resale home. They probably used some aggressive assumptions, but they did talk about a 3600 sq. ft. home, so it is somewhat believable to me.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I could be mistaken on the 5:30 timeframe, but everything that I have read points to this being the cutoff time, at least for normal monthly options. I am not sure if this applies to weeklies as well. I have also read some brokerage scams where guys would exercise their options as late as Monday morning when good news came out.

    Also here is a link that shows how one JASO shareholder sold short $11's, and the stock finished last week on OE at $11.01. He did not get his shares called away:

    https://finance.yahoo.com/mbview/threadview/?&bn=dec6acdc-3905-391e-bef9-655bd6a43148&tid=1403639513225-3d06ec6e-2154-47df-b122-556d11c61cfa&tls=la%2Cd%2C0%2C3#mbt=Options%2520Expire%25u2026&mbl=https%253A%2F%2Ffinance.yahoo.com%2Fmbview%2Fthreadview%2F%253B_ylt%253DAoE_ZFPzffK.4iNfsZdkHj7eAohG%253B_ylu%253DX3oDMTB2NDQ5Z3ZiBHBvcwM0MwRzZWMDTWVkaWFNc2dCb2FyZHNYSFJVbHQ-%253B_ylg%253DX3oDMTBhYWM1a2sxBGxhbmcDZW4tVVM-%253B_ylv%253D3%253F%2526bn%253Ddec6acdc-3905-391e-bef9-655bd6a43148%2526tid%253D1403185593235-51cab05a-a84b-43fb-9f50-9b5d98ab5698%2526tls%253Dla%25252Cd%25252C8%25252C3&mbtc=mb-tab-topic
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    MBLY started trading, anybody got some?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Where is sleepyhead when we need him the most. SPWR and JASO both tanking. Wonder, why?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SPWR because of guidance - I might add more in the next few days. JASO and JKS in sympathy? jaso reports 9/4 and JKS 8/13. I'm hoping that will drive them higher. I just added to my JASO position after market yesterday and today it is down even more. I added to my JKS a few days ago when it went to 25. I'm underwater on both JASO and JKS now (not counting options).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sleepy has a newborn baby and is really busy but I'm sure he'll be back around. If you want to check out his comments on solar immediately, he sometimes posts more frequently on his other site, The Contrarian Investor.

    As for my take, prices of Chinese solars are being heavily suppressed by someone with deep pockets because it is easy to do so given low market caps, and the protectionism from US regulators has people spooked some as well.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Outside of a blip last August, JASO looks to be lower than it's been for a year. I'd buy...if i hadn't exhausted my funds from buying it 2 days ago :). Still, it seemed a pretty good price then and I suppose it will look good again in a few months.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Canadian Solar beats by $0.37, beats on revs; guides Q3 revs in-line (CSIQ) : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.95 per share, $0.37 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.58; revenues rose 64.0% year/year to $623.8 mln vs the $577.65 mln consensus.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    After their dismal Q1 ER it is nice to see. Premarket they are up 8+%......
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Up over 20% now.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am glad I own some. Today I wish I owned a LOT.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    CSIQ is my second largest holding after TSLA. 15 million traded vs. normally 3 million. Up 24% as of now. Sweet. We're back on trajectory I guess. The market is really quarter to quarter with these solars.

    Sleepyhead said it a thousand times: the solars are buy and hold, not for Q2Q trading.

    I'm just glad to be solidly back in green with my CSIQ position which has been red for quite some time. Never even contemplated selling. I shouldha bought more though when we dipped this low yesterday. Now if I only had a time machine...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have hung in there with CSIQ also (stock and LEAPS). One of my LEAPS today is up 125%, needless to say it was down 60% at one time so I still have a lot of work to do to get to even.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm also nearly green after today, which is awesome as I've been accumulating on the ride down, in my tax free account! Very happy I decided to go Stock vs. Options.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This article Solar Boom Driving First Global Panel Shortage Since 2006 - Bloomberg from Bloomberg out last night US time (18 Aug), albeit fairly sloppily written, provides a bit of color into the global SS/DD for PV panels coming more into balance than it has been for some while. AND...because of a very heavy increase in demand, rather than because of more diminution of supply.

    To the extent this is and remains the situation, then Washington's re-application of punitive tariffs against the Chinese suppliers will be more and more irrelevant.

    The article's sloppiness makes it easy to pick what you want: Prices going up! Production cap at X! or X-20%! and so on, but there appears to be enough color from industry leaders to suggest its not all whistling past the graveyard; rather, that the recent bottom is well and truly past us.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Does Jinkos South African production help it get around US tariffs? The stock reaction to earnings was not at all what I expected. With stock + options, Jinko is nearing my third largest investment after Tesla and Apple and I'm not sure how to take this kind of under-reaction - opportunity to add is not lost or that this is a losing game against bigger players?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There used to be quite a bit off enthusiasm about JASO on this thread. Today they reported earnings. No one is talking about it. Any insights from the report? The report may not be great but did anything change in terms of the story/reasoning?

    I didn't look at it closely, but felt like it can be a great value stock for a while. Not sure if the reasoning is in-tact.
    �
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