Chủ Nhật, 30 tháng 10, 2016

Alternative Energy Investor Discussions part 11

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SPWR is not an earnings play type stock. I would hold those J15 LEAPS until expiration if I were you. I will take them off your hands if you want to sell them. IIRC, you bought some J15 $40s for $1.xx?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am not saying I would dump the LEAPS. I would dump the JAN14 calls. I said I would hold the LEAPS or buy more if the stock falls after Q3.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sleepyhead, I appreciate all your feedback.
    I must say when I purchased those Nov strikes I was more in the gambling mood. Now, not so much... I'm human that way. :smile:
    I don't need people to tell me exactly what to buy. I simply believe there is value when people share their investment strategy / rationale for picking a particular option. Obviously LEAPs are safer but some people might prefer the 15's vs 16s or even feel comfortable with options 6 months out. I'd like to hear that and know why.

    Also, I think you might be surprised how many people put a level of trust in what you say on these forums. A trust I think you've earned although maybe you don't want it. You are not 'some random guy on the internet' here on TMC. I've been reading for long enough - months - to know this.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I invest in these companies exactly the opposite way of what I recommend other people to do and that is why I don't like disclosing my options positions; so that others don't try to copy me and lose money because of the extreme risks that I take.

    Using CSIQ as an example, I have a whole assortment of options and bull call spreads from $11 all the way up to $36 with expiration months in Nov, Dec, Jan, April, but no LEAPS.

    I recommend people to do the exact opposite and buy shares and LEAPS, because that is the safest way to make money and it will be very hard to lose money on CSIQ with this strategy (unless there is a black swan event or a major global recession).

    I have a very specific strategy though and I don't want people buying an option that I bought, because I may have purchased it as part of my bigger strategy. I also do tons of trades per month and quickly move in and out of positions.

    Buying CSIQ shares is easy money, options not so much but do offer a higher payout if timing is right. You can still make a ton of money with LEAPS, so you don't have to be buying front month options.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    For sure. I just only bought my LEAPS a month ago and they are are at 40% gain. This was a DOTM LEAP at the time, and still is. I can only imagine the return if we start getting close to that price here by the new year.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Im kind of in the middle, I play all kinds of options. Maybe abit to eager :). However lets not forget SOL. If demands still goes strong the polysilicon prices will go up. This will obv be good for SOL(and DQ). Zacks just upgraded SOL to strong buy, they are pretty bullish on solar, but they have a HOLD rating on CSIQ. http://www.nasdaq.com/article/renesola-upped-to-strong-buy-analyst-blog-cm284368
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I like your advice and prefer the riskier option, personally. Please don't stop giving us this invaluable info! :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    A forum contributor had brought up the thought of impact the need for lithium for increased battery production would have on lithium mining company stocks. Got me to start reading about these companies. There a bunch of them valued at less than $.10/share and a couple larger players. Not sure if this is a good route to go. Anyone else looked at them?

    SQM (Chile) FMC (US) CLQ (Canada)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Zacks research is completely useless and they have no idea what they are talking about. They just downgraded CSIQ to sell: "This suggests that investors may better off exiting this stock before it falls back to Earth."

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/top-canadian-solar-inc-csiq-103416452.html

    It might have a little pullback, or maybe even a big pullback if the whole markets start tanking, but in the end it is extremely undervalued and eventually the share price will have to go up a lot.

    - - - Updated - - -

    How do I know Zacks Equity Research is useless? Because CSIQ is up 3% pre-market just two hours after they downgraded to sell.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah I just saw that. Its up premarket tho, propbably thanks to Northland
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What do you think of American Vanadium, AVCVF? They allegedly have the best vanadium reserves in the US to develop battery storage technology.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm not that familiar with AVCVF, I'll have to take a closer look.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Whoa, what's up with SOL, it's up 13% :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Really good day, lets hope JASO can join the party!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    They are probably going to preannounce earnings on Thursday and now people are trading on inside information.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I didn't hear about this. So it sounds like if I'm currently holding a call position, I should sell it today to minimize risk?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Why would that be a good idea? If the stock is up 14% on insider information on upcoming earnings release, then it's likely the actual release will send the stock even higher.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Guys, I am just speculating. No reason for SOL to be up this much. I am sure that there is insider trading going on in these Chinese stocks. The major stock price movements before major announcements leads me to believe that SOL will announce something soon.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hey! CSIQ just hit $20. woot!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It has a concrete steady angle up and keeps going since about 20 min after market open at the same slope ;) Not that I'm complaining, my Apr '14 calls are now ITM :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    CSIQ just broke the big 20$. Congrats Sleepy, you called 20$ ages ago.... now onwards to 40$!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    At the rate it's going I will be retired as precisely 2:32pm EST - Just kidding. On a serious note though I have some extra cash coming in tomorrow and I was going to buy some SOL options; probably too late now.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yawza, just looked at SOL volume. The market has been open for only 1h and it's daily volume already exceeds daily average by 50% :p
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Always nice to look at one's account and see green! I know there will be some red days also....but...two thoughts

    1. Thanks sleepy for solar tip in general and CSIQ specifically

    2. Only regret: Wish I had bought more :wink:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    TSL also broke out and is forming the Cup i mentioned. TSL will probably run close to $20 and then stop dead there. (pending any positive or negative events)

    The NASDAQ needs to get its S together today..... Tanking hard
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    TSL already broke out of its rounded bottom pattern at ~$12 which I pointed out in the article in my sig. I kind of the see the cup you are talking about and there is a good chance that some technical traders will think the same and TSL will drift sideways around $19. But the bigger cup will be formend once TSL hits $30, and if it breaks through that cup then it is off to the races. This is still a few months away so don't get too excited :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agreed 100%.
    TSL has resistance points around ever $5 increment, so it was nice to see it break through the $16 mark after being flat there for a week. The $30 break out would be huge if it gets there.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, bet im not the only one thinking that. Im currently changing accounts to IB. I was also gonna set ALOT of my stocks into CSIQ and SOL options. Obv abit pissed today. Only oct calls I have is JASO.
    Btw, you know Zacks.com raised SOL sleepy?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SOL and HSOL are doing particularly well today among the solar stocks.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I know, here it is:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/renesola-upped-strong-buy-193002516.html

    "Zacks Investment Research upgraded ReneSola Ltd. (SOL) to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) on Oct 5, 2013."

    I didn't see the stock going up 16% yesterday.

    When they raised SPWR to Rank #1 (Strong Buy) it started tanking instead.

    I don't know what Zacks does, but I think their research is very bad based on the CSIQ downgrade today to sell:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/top-canadian-solar-inc-csiq-103416452.html

    I think they do more technical type research but they also have fundamental analysis in their research so I am not sure. I know that their fundamental research is really bad. Maybe they are good at technical research, I really don't know.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    well. This is pretty ****ed up. Really hope the US can come to an agreement soon, so the party can start again.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was rich this morning. Was thinking of selling off because of government crap, but figured that when this passes, all the solar stocks will rally even harder. Now I'm back to what I was at Friday :mad:

    I have a bunch of CSIQ, JASO, SOL, SPWR, and TSLA calls with Januaryish expiration. :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    On the bright side, this is a good entry point for more CSIQ stocks.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, im allin tho. Plan was to sell stock and buy more options. Not sure atm. BIG swings in the account today.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow what happened to SCTY today? I had a bull spread I setup yesterday. Today it goes up to $40 so I have to take loss on the OTM short call and move up. Now it drop below $38 and I suffered double loss?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Man...I hope I did not jinx us with my 'in the green' comment. Amazing what a couple hours and an 'f'd up' government can do.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    LOL, Short-article on CSIQ coming out now. Didnt even read it. Would love to get some shorters in before Earnings.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I looked into lithium a little while ago and this is what I found:

    The thing about Lithium stocks is many of these companies are heavily diversified chemical companies. So for example, SQM, the world's largest lithium producer, does a lot of it's business in potash, not just lithium. Look a few months back and you'll see a day where every potash stock took a 30% hit because a cartel in Eastern Europe which was fixing potash prices got broken up. So, SQM, the most popular lithium play, and not a very volatile stock, lost a huge amount of value in a single day. (edit: and I meant to point out that that loss wasn't even on anything lithium-related)

    I haven't found a company which just deals with lithium, and I don't know a lot about LIT but if it tracks companies like SQM then it might also be affected by something like that (in fact it looks like it dropped at around the same time as SQM, just not as much).

    One note, FMC did bid on a huge lithium deposit which was just found in Wyoming. Apparently this deposit is good because a) it's in the USA, b) it's enormous, c) it's near some other sort of salt product which is used in refining lithium (I don't know the specifics). There's another company bidding on it as well, I forget their ticker, but it's some tiny market cap company which is run by Wyoming state legislator. But basically whichever company gets it will probly see a bit of a bump, and/or have some good growth as the resources get exploited. That said, nobody knows how long it will take for this process to happen.

    Here's (old) news on the FMC/Wyoming stuff: Wyoming lithium deposits much bigger than originally expected
    FMC Corporation applies for southwest Wyoming lithium leases

    I'm not an expert on this stuff, but it seems to me like solar/TSLA will see more growth (or more volatility in general) than these mineral companies, and to me mineral companies are sort of boring. But if you're looking for boring long term investments which won't grow that much, maybe this is a good play. That's not what I'm looking for, though. That said, some of these companies (like the FMC competitor?) are penny stocks and might fail, so you might have just as much risk as you would with TSLA/solars.

    I just don't see much there, but that's just my opinion.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is helpful. Thanks!

    I also like to understand how increased demand on Lithium ion battery impact the demand of raw lithium. Quantity analysis will be best. Then of course, how different positions and relevant these mining players are in the market. e.g., here is one story on CBAK:

    China BAK to Supply Lithium-ion Batteries to FAW-Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd. -- SHENZHEN, China , Aug. 23, 2012 /PRNewswire-Asia/ --

    Obviously it is not closely related to TSLA, but it gives some visibility about CBAK's relevancy.


    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    LOL I just got CBAK yesterday. Market cap of 26million$, Dont have a clue about it, pure gamble, like KNDI and STRI

    CSIQ JAN14 20$calls are at 2.25$ now. Just saying.

    Im pretty sure you are right that some news will come out regarding SOL sleepy. That strenght is insane compared to the rest. selling stuff and buying SOL and DQ atm
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What's going on with JKS in particular today? Is it because it's time for a correction?

    My time is bad again this morning. I know on most days **** hits the fan around 10-11AM ET, but today it did at 9:30AM. Hopefully, the whole market is going to come back up a little with 20 minutes before closing bell. My 401k mutual fund exchange should be done tonight and will have fund in the brokerage option to invest tax free in sola tomorrow.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well I guess its all timing now. We know these stocks will go up. And we know there are alot of money waiting to get into the markets. We also know more analysts are following solar. The bears are also shorting. This builds up in my book to be a perfect storm. I have sold Alot of stock today to put it into my options portofolio. The smart thing to do would probably be to have stocks. However this is a risk I am willing to take. I am only playing profit from Tesla since I got in early there. I feel like we are where Tesla was 9 months ago. The obly thing we need is for your goverment to agree, then I do belive the perfect storm is coming.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    These storms make me sick in the stomach, Norse. Luckily, my solar options are all April contracts so I should have to enough time to make some profit and break even on a few. After this, I'm just going to do common stock and LEAPS until my timing ability improves by six-fold.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sorry to hear. Scares me off from options. I have not done them but have been studying/trying to perfect some strategies without committing funds. Your comments definitely gives me cause for concern.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, just have to wait out the government stuff before getting in. That is why I was cautioning people who thought they were buying TSLA at the low after it went back up above $180. I am still waiting on the sidelines until we get a sign that they are getting close to a deal. Right now it doesn't sound that way, and they are playing the blame game.

    It's not that the market wants to go down. Its that the market has to go down. It has to tell the congressmen that they are about to unleash financial Armageddon on the world.

    The whole global financial system as well as global economic system is based on the fact that the US Treasury is THE safe haven security. Once the politicians start messing with that the whole global financial system can collapse.

    This is the second time that congress has played this game. The rest of the world is starting to get very irritated. Markets around the world are tanking because 500 people, give or take, are playing a high-stake game of poker with the 7 billion people's chips.

    The market is the referee here and it has to send congress a message. If tomorrow we have a "relief" rally, then it will only prolong the time it takes to get a deal done.

    If the markets tank again tomorrow and the day after, I guarantee that congress will have a solution done over the weekend. But if they rally tomorrow and hold flat on Thursday then congress will not have any incentive to get anything done until Oct. 17.

    What this means is that if the market finishes this week strong then it will have to tank hard next week. This is a bad scenario in my opinion, because we need a deal done ASAP. The longer we wait the more long term damage this political debacle will inflict on the US. They are playing with the reputation of our "risk-free" security.

    We have to get a deal done soon, but if we don't then I would think that the markets have to continue to tank because that is the only way the congress will get its act together.

    That is my opinion and I don't see any upside in getting in tomorrow unless you are playing a day trade. If the market goes up tomorrow then we will most definitely see a down day on Thursday unless you believe that congress will be close to a solution on Thursday.

    The risk is to the downside in my opinion. I am waiting at least two more days before getting in, although I did get in a little today. I won't get money for two days so I think it will be perfect timing. If I had cash now I would be very tempted to buy in right now, but logically thinking I think it is a bad idea. So the fact that I won't have the cash transferred until the end of the week will probably turn out to be a blessing in disguise.

    If the markets do rally over the next several days then I will be very happy too because I already have a huge (relatively speaking) long exposure to the market right now.

    I set myself up in what I think is a win-win situation. The only way I lose is if congress completely screws up and we default, in which case I will lose it all; like most people in the markets. Prolonging a resolution could potentially lead to a global recession. Every day longer it takes to get this done is an additional day of significant economic damage to the US and global economy.

    So logically thinking the markets have to continue to go down every single day until congress gets this done.

    Also, it would definitely be better for the US economy in the long run if tomorrow they passed a continuing resolution and completely eliminated the debt limit, and then flipped a coin on Obamacare; than to continue going down this path of government shutdown and default scare tactics.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Listen to sleepy. :)

    I was up big time this morning, but then 10:30AM everything went kaboom. I couldn't sell my calls when CSIQ was above $20. Then it went down so fast I just stepped back and told myself to be patient and wait like what happened to TSLA last week. Hopefully, what happened today will make the republicans rethink and do what's right for the country. A man can hope.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Speaking from a politically neutral perspective the republicans kind of have to do what they are doing. The democrats were in charge of all chambers and the people quickly voted republicans into the house to lower our spending which was out of control. The republicans have to fight to curb spending, because that is the vote of the people. Democrats in senate are sticking to their beliefs because that is why the people voted them in initially. It is a flawed system, but we have to understand that flaw and continue negotiating all the time and working together.

    I think democrats and republicans should sit together and work together on every issue. E.g. both parties negotiate a deal in the house and send it to the senate where both parties make changes to the deal together and send it back and forth until they get a resolution.

    I just don't think that the politicians understand what kind of damage every day of shutdown causes, and probably nobody does. We will only know after the fact, which will be too late. It is kind of like pollution and global warming; we will only find out what kind of damage we caused after the fact. Maybe if somebody could quantify to the politicians that we are hemorrhaging, for example, $5b or $50b of economic damage daily then they would get their act together.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    When I said Republicans, I really meant both sides need to work the issues out together. And because this won't be an overnight process, both should agree to fund the gov and raise the debt ceiling with a contingency that they will negotiate and come to a resolution within a reasonable amount period of time. I just don't get why DC has to hold back the entire county and probably the world to fix its own issues.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I should've listened to Sleepy! However, as long as they work a deal out everything will be ok. If not, we are all kind of done for, anyway. That was my thought process when I got in, haha. I had sold some covered calls on SPWR as a hedge and bought them back yesterday for a profit. maybe i should've waited.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What do you mean by this? If an agreement on the debt ceiling is not reached, that the whole financial market will tank big time and we're entering a recession? Is this the only logical outcome if they don't reach an agreement? Because if so, the logical thing would be to completely exit all the positions one has and wait till after the 17th I would guess?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That is exactly correct.

    The problem with exiting positions is that some stocks might actually go up during this period. I can see the solar stocks going up today as well as TSLA (I can also see them tanking hard again), but probably a little less than yesterday). Then by Thursday you might see congress making progress and the market rally continues. Then if they strike a deal and the market opens up 2% on Monday.

    In this scenario, if you cashed out now (at the bottom) you would have missed a good 10%+ rally in your stocks.

    Timing the market is always difficult to do. And if you already held through the first 10% loss on TSLA, then it is kind of hard to sell now even though there is a chance it goes down further.

    - - - Updated - - -

    You might be alright with solar, it just all depends on the market sentiment. It is very hard to tell which industry gets sold off next. Solar had a big sell-off yesterday, so if there is another sell-off maybe solar doesn't get hit hard again. Or maybe there is a rally and the sector rebounds.

    I held through all of my solar position since this mess started and I did very well. Even yesterday my portfolio was only down a little, because of my high exposure to SOL. You just never really know what the market will bring you.

    My portfolio has performed the best during the Syria debacle and now during the shutdown. I am glad I did not sell going into these events even though I thought holding on will be a bad idea.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    I guess what I am trying to gauge from you more experience investors is, HOW much it "might" tank. I know theoretically it can tank 100% but are we talking about a possible tanking of TSLA stock as much as 50-60% or is this very unlikley? Because if a tanking of +60% of a TSLA is possible or even probably if the debt ceiling isn't raised before the 17th, I would be happy to exit positions and risk missing out on a 10% rally, but protecting me from a massive downfall.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think Larken's point is that the downside of default is so much greater than the upside of no default the sensible move would be to assume default and get out now. The potential to miss out on a few percentage points of gain doesn't outweigh the benefit of protecting from the huge hit you'd take on default. I'm not there yet, but I have been considering it.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Exactly what I was trying to say :smile:, I know it's difficult to predict and that's why I am trying to gauge how big of a drop is probable. The TSLA stock I have I don't plan to sell for many years, but if there's a risk of a 50% drop then of course selling now is something to be considered.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Or you can buy deep otm put options to protect your TSLA if you are afraid it might tank big time.

    When I say tank, I mean a one or two day tank like we had over the past week or so. I don't think that stocks will go down too much unless we do default in which case we are all doomed anyway (except for those who bought deep otm put options).

    I haven't bought deep otm put options. I considered doing it on the S&P a week ago but I have faith in politicians and they will get it done soon.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Let's think about that for a minute :wink:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Another painful day.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just bought more common CSIQ shares @ 17.15. So frustrated because I had to do it over the phone with Vanguard and saw the price went from 16.80 to 17.30 and luckily came back down bit. Will buy more tomorrow if price is still in this range.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Glad I had to sell yesterday, now lets hope I get them back in before Obama does something. I hope China adds pressure to the US soon.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Some of this depends on how really, really bad you think things might get. On my "really bad" scale's deep end, I'm not sure which currency or commodity I'd want to "cash out" into.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Had to sell all of my SCTY stock this morning to cover some of the Tesla losses. Ended up being a good move. Still have some bull call spreads in SCTY though. Only solar plays left at the moment.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well I guess this wont have any effect on the politicians, as its only "our" stocks that are going down.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That's why I recommended buying shares and not options. Shares will recover in no time, options might not recover in time.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What's with JASO yesterday and today? I thought it was undervalued and we wouldn't a big drop or correction so soon.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My IB alarm just popped up that trading on SCTY has been halted and I see CSUN, JASO with the 5x marker. Da**** happened?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Well the CSUN and JASO have short selling restriction. For CSUN it's until Oct 10th 3 EET for CSUN it's until Oct 11th 3EET.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    the government is what happened. market is unsure and you are probably seeing alot of profit taking right now in solars.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And I am scraping together what I can to buy more solar IF it continues to tank because of our indecisive (or overly stubborn) elected officials.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What do you mean by the 5x marker?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The 5x marker shows up when short selling is restricted. Not quite sure why it's 5x and what precisely it means, but I've also seen it on TSLA during the runup where shorting it was somehow strongly restricted. What I'm more curious about though is really what happened to SCTY that caused a regulatory trading halt on it. It's stuck at $37.34 for quite a while now and options show a red H0.00 with an alert icon next to their name that says:

    "Trading is halted (regulatory halt)."

    - - - Updated - - -

    Also there's no news on the news section on SCTY since ca 1h after market open so that doesn't give any hints either...

    - - - Updated - - -

    Standard reasons for trading halts are circuit breakers (sudden down or up swing that is considered odd in such a short timeframe, shouldn't be the case here as it was flat before the halt) or news:

    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SCTY announced they bought ZEP Solar...Could that be the reason for trading halt?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    A bit late wouldn't you say? Wasn't that announced relatively early in the trading day, the halt came less than an hour before market close. It seemed to have restarted before close though and when I look at the graph it seems to have traded throughout so I'm a bit puzzled. The trading halt was on the options so maybe the options for SCTY were halted only? That'd be a first for me...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, we both know its hard to not buying them anyways. Im getting some money in tomorrow or friday. Will probably spend 50% if the price is right tomorrow, and the rest when the politicians agrees.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    CSIQ is up 7% in pre market trading.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    yes, but volume only 400. However I will not be surprised if it happens anyways.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I also wouldn't be surprised if we see a big drop again after o opening. *fingers crossed*

    This needs to stabilize in time for the Q3 earnings season.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Im pretty bullish today. Im probably allin when it starts.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The signals for a deal in DC aren't all that clear yet. I personally would wait and see what happens this morning.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    not good for SOL, good for the others I guess. Loading up with CSIQ APR14 36$ calls atm. Looks cheap, safe and could be great reward.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I loaded up on solar today with some TSLA as well. These stocks are just not trading on fundamentals and I think that the market will shortly catch up to these stocks.

    I threw everything I had and the kitchen sink. I am fairly confident in solar and it has to go up. The only question is when will the market finally figure this out? It is hard to say and that is why stock is still the best bet. Options are very risky here.

    Do your own due diligence before investing. I invested based on my own due diligence and not based on anyone else's opinion. Since my research on the solar industry is limited to only the spare time that I get between work, family, kids, golf, yoga, gym, and watching TV; I might have missed some very important things about the solar industry.

    Happy investing.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    Considering current IV of tsla and solar, did you go with Straight calls or bull call spreads?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Straight calls.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Once earnings season starts for these companies, there will be VOL...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, great day today guys. Not happy until the politicians have agreed.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Something is up with CSIQ today. I usually dont care about pre-market but 2k volume already at 19.90? Usually no trades that early on CSIQ. It also seems like China has bigger growth then what we think. If there is news today, I do hope the politicians agree soon, so this party can begin.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-central-bank-says-2013-043902329.html

    I think for this year we're going to have certainly above 7.5 percent growth rate," Yi was reported by Xinhua to have said in Washington. "Maybe 7.6 percent (or) something like that."
    "After cooling in 12 of the past 14 quarters, China's economy is finally showing signs of stabilization, helped in part by government measures to shore up growth, including lowering taxes for small firms and quickening infrastructure spending.
    Growth in exports, which had slumped last year, is also picking up on a firmer U.S. economy."
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SCTY is up 11% in pre market with a lot of news.........so glad I sold all of my stock at 39$... !!! Argh
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have Oct 32.50 calls that I bought back halfway through September. Obviously I'm very happy right now :) thing is, should I hold for another week or so, or take profits and run?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Because of the political climate I would sell on opening. Im holding the chinese because of the good news from china today. Offcourse the politicians could come to an agreement today or this weekend, I think they know they should
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is the kind of news that usually sparks a longer term rally. You can still get back in at $41, you did not miss out on much - only 5%.



    SPWR buy point at $28.25 on high volume. Looks like SPWR formed a 10 week cup with handle pattern and is poised for another breakout as soon as today:

    SunPower's Shares Breakout Fails, But Stock Trying Again SPWR - Investors.com
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is old news. All they did is upped the number of shares. Probably an over allotment option.

    I am not recommending SCTY, because it is a black box and I have no idea what it is worth. But if I really liked SCTY, I would be getting in today after they announced 2014 installations at 500MW.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agree, I just bought in at $41.80
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good job. Easy money so far.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Unsure if I shoud close the upper legs of my bull call spreads? They are for 40$ Nov/Jan. Probably too late now....but if it keeps going up like this.....

    - - - Updated - - -

    If it breaks 45.....................
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Solar stocks look like they are poised for take-off.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see some preannouncements coming before the actual earnings results. Some companies are going to crush earnings.

    Excited to see what Wall St. will think about these earnings. I think that they will be an eye opener for the market.

    Solar is becoming a profitable industry and there are some companies that are going to be very profitable. I think that CSIQ and JKS may get close to $1 EPS in Q3 if everything goes right. My worst case is around $0.50 EPS, which is still miles ahead of the few analysts that cover these stocks.

    SPWR looks like it is breaking out of that cup with handle technical pattern and is about to take off.



    Congress shook out all of the week longs out of solar and now they are ready to go even higher. Looking good so far, but congress giveth and congress taketh away. Let's hope they get a deal done soon.

    I am really looking forward to Q3 earnings season. Glad I went all in yesterday.


    Happy investing everyone.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Missed my chance to get SPWR at 28.15 by just a few seconds. Now I'm regretting big time. Is 29 still an good entry point? Or maybe I should buy more TSLA since the market hasn't figured that one out yet.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks for the advise Norse. Good thing I didn't listen to you thou :p

    I think with SCTY breaking the $45.50 resistance I feel pretty good about holding until it hits the ATH, which I think it could do before end of month.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good thing I closed those upper legs :-D If we touch 50 I'll maybe place them back at a higher strike.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Heh, had bought a while back $35 Jan calls and today hedged half with $47,5 calls for risk free. Now the $50 calls are already approaching risk free status :) I guess I'll ride on with this part of the calls naked to get maximum exposure until January :) They're deep enough in the money that they move nicely with the stock :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SCTY has broken its daily all time high volume within 1 hour of trading. Question is - how much farther can it go?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Very interesting Sleepy, I already hold CSIQ and SOL and I'm considering adding a few more solar companies. Are there any others besides JKS and SPWR that you would recommend?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    For Solar stocks, I am long on SCTY and STP.

    Huge gain today on SCTY for me. From a pure technical play, at $47, I switch from bull call spread to bear call spread. On top of it, I bought some weekly put expired today.

    The up and down of TSLA cause me to refine my trading approach. This is one outcome out of it. The first time ever I use a bear call spread, I think the scenario for SCTY fits well.

    I plan to take advantage of short term pull back, perhaps only for a couple of days.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah im glad you didnt. It really surprised me that we started so good today. Seems to me the markets also think there will be a deal during the weekend.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You pretty much covered them all. But you can probably buy any of the solar companies and do really well.

    I also have a really big exposure to JASO. Main reason is that it has been a big laggard and I like playing laggards in the industry. It has one of the best balance sheets and is only a few months behind its competitors in the income statement department. I think that this one has the most upside in the short run, because of its cheap valuation.

    It is also very close to breaking out of its two year reverse head and shoulders technical chart pattern and once it does it will go up to $20 in no time.

    I didn't do much research on JASO though, so I am not certain on all of their fundamentals. But JASO is priced so low, with such a good balance sheet, and an awesome technical chart that I loaded up the boat on JASO options without even looking at the fundamentals too closely. Because they are going to be beating analyst estimates in the near future anyway.

    Analysts are so far behind on these Chinese solar companies that it is not even funny. That is why all of these stocks are still cheap today.

    Q3 solar earnings will be an eye opener for Wall St. and the earnings will only be getting better, in some cases exponentially better.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    By the way, what thoughts do you guys have regarding YGE (Yingli Green Energy Holding)? If I remember correctly, it is the biggest solar player (manufacturer) in China. The stock has done well the last 6 months, almost trippled.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think they are up 1200% last 14 months actually.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Are you mostly taking Nov/Dec options and then seeing where things are going from there after Q3, or buying up longer term options/stock?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Goodness, I have far less invested in SCTY than I do TSLA, but all of a sudden I've made much more money on it! I believe I bought my SCTY shares about a week or two after I bought my TSLA shares.

    Now I just wish I bought more of both!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If SCTY breaks the 47.5 resistance then probably only 50$ will stop it... I think it will be hard to break through... looks like it will at least try. I would like to time the moment in which I place my upper legs back in....will be hard to get it right.
    Also should we start getting worried about a sharp pullback?

    Update: bouncing back off (despite market going up). Maybe one more try.... but we are up 21%....the momentum is broken and it would take something major to push it up significantly. At this point I would be happy if it settled around 47$ today without losing ground as people take profits.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Oh... Solar City....

    So funny story, I bought some lottery tickets last week before all the government shutdown crashes. Only spent 100 dollars, but still pretty funny.

    Untitled.png
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Jhall, congrats? Did you cash out your call?

    Are all the solar companies we are tracking here expected to release their Q3 earnings in November? It would be great to have a list of potential dates to help with timing and short-term strategy. For instance, JASO reported their Q3 2012 last year on November 28, 2012. Is it like to be around that date or could it be a totally different date, perhaps first week of Nov?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I sold mine.. last week :p
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I would have sold mine when they were crashing, but I didn't think it was really worth the money. Complete accident.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Go to the investor relations section on each of their websites and look at last years press releases to grt a feel for when they announce earnings.
    �
    • Người đăng: vào lúc

    Không có nhận xét nào:

    Đăng nhận xét

    Đăng ký: Đăng Nhận xét (Atom)