Thứ Hai, 31 tháng 10, 2016

Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA) part 7

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    I saw a commercial from Big Oil today comparing electric batteries to gasoline's energy density. Why would they do that? Because they're already concerned.......
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    The specific video that you link to is the very reason I am buying a Tesla in a few months. "Almost 100 percent of plastics in the medical field is made from oil/natural gas".

    Well holy crap, what if we run out? Lets not waste what we make most of our plastics/lubricants/etc and a lot of modern conveniences and needs on fueling our vehicles! It's so clear to see, its ridiculous.

    Anyway, sorry that is a bit off topic, but if we are speaking longevity here. Whether it is batteries or some other source, we will need to find something else in the next fifty years to propel our transportation.
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    Tesla getting free Publicity because of the trademark issue. Tesla gotta love it. http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx?from=&to=en&a=http%3A%2F%2Fauto.hexun.com%2F2013-12-25%2F160874448_2.html

    Note there are 7 pages there, you can actually look at their competition as well.
    It also says shipping is starting in January, arriving in February. As a Norwegian I know shipment dates cannot be trusted as people here have encountered countless delays.
    That also happened just a month ago when what seemed to be everyone with an order for a model S got at least a month delay, and some even two!

    I think this means they have done, or are close to a deal with China regarding price, and that we can expect some catalyst in Jan/Feb once again.

    What was that short interest again?
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    Likewise. A healthy, happy, and financially rewarding 2014 to all of you.

    Personally, I'm pleased that TSLA didn't go up very much near the end of 2013. I'm retired and have a minimum distribution for my IRA. I didn't want to have too big of a holding at the end of the year. I expect it to go up next near, especially after the 1st Quarter report.
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    For the Forbes article about adding GS and TSLA. Where do they get their numbers from? Institutions issue 13-F statements after the end of the quarter. How does the author know the trading patterns of institutions without either working for a custodial brokerage or know someone (insider info) at all the funds who do the trading? Or, is he referring to 13-F statements from Q3 during the run-up?
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    One could check institutional holding percentage on NASDAQ page, it updates at least once a week. Last time I checked(couple months ago) TSLA had 58%, now it is 60%.

    http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/institutional-holdings
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    The updates there are based on institutional holdings as of the end of Q3 being 9-30. Nothing new there since. This is why I asked how someone would know Q4 institutional holding movement. Inside a trading house might know their own trading and holdings or perhaps a partner but no way to know across brokers and funds. These institutions range from very large to some holding only a few hundred shares to some that closed out positions. One interesting one is Baillie out of Scotland and a large buy during the Q3 period. Another is BNP Paribas which is HQ in France but this fund is in the US. Shares bought in earnest by funds outside the country during Q3 is interesting. This BNP position was new and is 7.1M shares during and at the end of Q3. They would have taken a hit with the activities in October thru ER and the dip to 120 unless they were selling and hedging. If it wasn't for BNP Paribas, the institutional net shares would have gone down 4%.
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    ??? The hard fact is that NASDAQ updates institutional ownership percentage AT LEAST ONCE A WEEK. Plain and simple.

    That is why I answered you. Read mine post above.

    There are no need for conspiracy theories.
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    Show me there or other tracking sites that indicate any institutional reporting since 9/30. Of course they update daily or weekly as 13-F or 13-G/D forms come out in a steady flow but need to be out by six weeks after a quarter ends. Some came out as late as mid November after the Tesla ER. But I cannot see anything in Nasdaq or Whalewisdom that has anything for Tesla since 9/30 reporting requirements. Can you give explicit details of public info regarding what was stated in that Forbes article?
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    Zzzz - the link you provided; all of the listed institutions and their holdings and related information that I saw were dated 9/30/2013. I believe this is Bonaire's question - do you have a different source with more recent dates on institutional ownership?

    NASDAQ might be getting weekly updates to institutional holdings, but are those published?
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    Thanks adiggs - I am not trying to stir up a bee's nest but the Forbes article bothers me. Since I cannot track institutional buying other than through the SEC filings, I just don't know how these guys would know "something" about institutional advances or declines in shares. I personally have friends in the industry who won't tell me anything about what their trading desk does - they would lose jobs or at least be written up as a compliance issue. SoX and compliance laws have become a bit more stringent. Bernie Madoff and all....

    Here: Whale Wisdom: Track Hedge Funds Using 13F Filings

    That is the only mid-stream mild-correction (by Fidelity) I've seen since all the 13-F filings came out for Q3 compliance.

    I'd like to know what kind of trouble someone would get into with the SEC for the Forbes authors who "imply" institutions are buying GS and TSLA (now) without actually knowing it. Perhaps they simply are "extending" the knowledge of the institutional deltas coming off the Q3 13-F filings. But that is 3-months ago.

    That can be considered some type of market manipulation and, if not, should be, illegal without identifying when the action they are seeing was.

    When I read many of the wide-variety of Motley Fool articles - I think "shouldn't these guys be considered illegal stock pumpers"? Since insider trading is illegal - the way they do it these days is by just making stuff up or using really impossible to pin-down phrases. And, I heard something recently by SCTY CEO Lydon Rive. He said "In eight years, solar pv arrays may not even be allowed to be installed without a battery standby system". Stuff like that makes me nuts because it simply is "marketing by speculation porn". It would be like the CEO of Chrysler saying "now that Fiat owns us, every American will probably buy a Chrysler product within the next 10 years".

    Our market purchases and sales need factual guidance and folks like Motley Fool have taken stock speculation way too far and help create a frenzy for a wide variety of stocks. I guess the Forbes article triggered my "hey, wait a minute..." genes and that's why I made the comments on this page. When the market in general is anonymous and our choices are supposed to be "smart" then writers do us a disservice if they are writing in a manner meant to spread speculation and not facts.

    i wrote a note to Forbes editors to ask what information the author uses for his statements.
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    Institutional Investors And Fundamentals: What's The Link?

    I am a novice, am I missing something?
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    Imitation is the sincerest form of competitor worry

    From Forbes:
    BMW Asks, Does It Take a Genius to Sell a Car? - Forbes

    ...unless the consumer runs into one of the three-quarters of salesmen who are still on commission.

    Oops.

    What about the other 62% of dealers who don't agree? Better hope your luck is better than average when you go shopping for a BMW.
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    Good lord.
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    Crap, I did not convert it. I just saw the $111k. However $180k for the P85 is not to bad or what?
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    S85 base model 750k Yuan, about $121k
    S85 fully equipped 1.08 million Yuan, about $174k
    P85 base model 870k Yuan, about $140k
    P85 fully equipped 1.11 million Yuan, about $179k
    tax is included for above price

    - - - Updated - - -

    That's indeed a very good price in China. Most of the import car prices are more than doubled compare to US because of the import tax. Base model BMW 740Li is selling for $78k in US. But it's selling for $177k in China. You basiclly get a fully equipped P85 for the price of base 740Li in China. Model S must got import tax break from China.
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    Yeah, remember it is $130k in Norway, and rated super cheap here. I think this is great, and I believe the tax break might increase since China needs EV, and I expect Tesla to engage a partnership in China.

    I guess we could see a PR on this soon?
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    What type of BMW or Audi do you get in china for 750k Yuan?
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    You get BMW 535Li or Audi A7.
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    Do you speak chinese Macman? Do you know if we can trust this site?
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    Yes, I do. This is a very reputable company and site. They have a few channels of their own on cable/satellite TV.
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    Actually lots of luxury car makers raise their price in China because they can and not because of the import tariff. Daimler and others are already making their cars in China and thus are able to avoid the import tariff. But they charge a lot to make more money.

    It doesn't look like Tesla is getting much import tariff break, if any. It's probably about 30% import tariff and some other taxes and shipping costs.

    Now if Tesla could make their cars in China (though it would have to be via a joint venture), then Tesla could avoid the import tariff and would open the Model S to a lot more buyers in China and China would likely be the top market for Tesla.
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    based on the price comparisons - that a S85 is the equivalent of a 5-series or A7, I suspect that China will be the #2 market anyways. Plus no need for JV (i.e., IP loss) risk.
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    Import tariff is just small part of the total tax. See this article that explains how the tax is charged for imported car in China. http://www.theworldofchinese.com/2013/08/car-manufacturers-and-distributors-on-the-make/ . Tax is charged base on engin capacity. Even if it's not tax break, I guess Tesla took advantage of their zero liter engine. So the total tax is 66%. 75kx166%=124k. It's very close to the price they set in China for the base S85. Most of the import cars in China sell for 2 to 3 times the US price. Combining tax advantage and their direct sales model, Model S has big price advantage in China. In relative term, US cusotmer is paying more than Chinese customer for Model S. In US, the same amount of money buying base model BMW 740Li can buy a base model S85. In China, the same amount of money buying base 740Li can buy a fully loaded P85.
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    Thank you Macman, and the same thing goes for Norway. A BMW M5 starts at 1.5 million NOK, while the model S starts at 460k.
    Do you have any prediction for Chinese sales now that you have the numbers?
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    Another article on the subject: http://www.carnewschina.com/2014/01/22/tesla-model-s-will-cost-198-000-usd-in-china/
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    related to Teslas longterm prospects:

    I have it from a very good source that BMW i3 is sold out for 2014!
    Stop panicing now

    They plan to produce only 6000 in 2014
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    That is true. You will have to wait for over a year now.
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    I think the sales in China could eventually close to US sales. But they need to open more stores and have more super chargers before that happens.
    According to the China price information Tesla released, they pay 36.7/81=45% total tax. That's a lot less than other ICE car. They decide to pass on the saving to the consumer. I think that's good move. It will help to reach more poeple.
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    Another consideration with this pricing is how many order in China will come from buyers who now clearly have a luxury alternative from a company not trying to f*** them over. This pricing really puts pressure on the other companies to reduce prices. I'm not worried at all about brand cachet. Enough Chinese buyers spend time in HK, Cali, Europe to already be convinced. And I'm sure the enthusiasm will spread once their colleagues experience the touch screen, the instant and quite acceleration, the loads of cargo and seating room.

    Plus the no direct emissions is a real bonus. Of course right now China's electric production isn't very clean, however it is changing fast with all the new solar and hydroelectric developments.

    Longer term this pricing may have just locked in 50,000+ WW demand levels for the Model S through 2017.
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    The Chinese pricing is the perfect argument for those FUD creators that try to convince others that Tesla doesn't make any money. If Tesla was hurting for money, then why would they dodge this opportunity to make a little extra? No one would fault them for doing so since all the other major manufacturers already gouge China because they can. Tesla chose to stick to their pricing strategy even though they really didn't have to.
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    They chose this pricing strategy many months/years ago and they had to stick to it. Elon said last year that they will charge the same price globally. If they price gauged China, then I would have dumped all of my TSLA and left the company for good. Elon simply stayed true to his word, so the China price reveal isn't actually news, and in my mind is a non-event.

    Also, the CNY will naturally appreciate against the USD and pretty soon the margins in China will be huge. I am actually stunned that nobody has mentioned this yet, here or in the media.

    This is sheer genius, absolutely brilliant!
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    A small caveat, Sleepy. As you surely are aware, most times in international trade the perceived price to the consumer changes as a function of the change in the appropriate exchange rates. So a Tesla in China that costs X yuan today could cost (0.9)X were the yuan to appreciate that much against the dollar. Tesla's $-based income statement, in this example, would be unchanged (other than for whatever price elasticity of demand there is in China....)

    I'm not saying that will occur, nor that there is the possibility of price stickiness. But neither is it necessarily cast in stone either way.
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    I am not sure I understand what you are saying, but once the price is set in Yuan using the 6.05 exchange rate Tesla is not going to go back and lower that price.

    If the price is 734k (or whatever it is) CNY today then Tesla gets $121k per car. But if the Yuan strengthens to 5.80 next year, then Tesla WILL NOT lower the price of the car in Yuan. Instead Tesla will now receive $126k per car, and that additional $5k goes straight into gross margin, and feeds in straight into EPS after taxes.

    There is no way that Tesla is going to lower the price in Yuan once it strengthens against the dollar. And there is virtually no chance that the Yuan weakens against the dollar either.

    Elon knows exactly what he is doing and the margins will be huge in China.
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    Let's hold on to that and revisit it in eighteen months. As a gedankenexperiment, however, riddle me this: suppose the currency of another country (why don't we call it "China") pulls an Argentina and depreciates against the dollar by, oh, 90%. If you think under those circumstances the overseas vendor is not going to adjust the price of its product in that country, then would you please take a look at this bridge I've got for sale?
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    Like every manufacturer they are hedged against currency risk.
    Elon even mentioned it in a Qx Call, how they are hedged against � risk.
    So TM doesn't care to much how the CNY will perform.
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    There is no such thing as perfect hedging and there will always be Forex Gains/Losses. Tesla has had rather substantial Forex movements in Q1 for example just from buying cells from Japan, and this is even before they started shipping cars to Europe.

    Everybody knows that the Yuan is only going up. So I am not sure that there is a need to hedge against the Yuan. It is not a currency that trades on the open market so hedging in China is a lot harder. If Tesla does hedge, hopefully they only hedge in one direction to the downside; I am sure that there is somebody out there willing to sell a few CNY puts since they will most likely go worthless.
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    The most brilliant thing is how they score a lot of publicity and goodwill with the announcement that they are sticking to the same pricing policy as before. :)
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    Agreed. That part was meant to be implied in my post, but I probably should have added it. Thanks.

    Here is the CNYUSD chart:

    CNY/USD Currency Conversion Chart - Yahoo! Finance

    You can see that it only goes up. The Yuan is pegged to the dollar and kept artificially weak. This allows China to be more competitive in exports and does not devalue their huge US Treasury holdings. It has been gradually strengthening over time to get back towards fair value, and it has a looooooong way to go.
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    I don't think that there is any investment / currency that "only goes up." If it was that easy just sell all your US holdings (including your house), invest in chinese currency futures and reap profit.

    Probably they put in hedges based around quarterly anticipated sales, maybe half a year. If the yuan continues to appreciate then sure, their margins will improve over a longer time horizon, but I seriously doubt any CFO/ Audit committee will allow the company to remain unhedged for committed orders. They can still adjust prices on yearly basis and be somewhat protected against short term swings.
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    The Yuan is not freely traded, so you can't invest in it. And if there are futures (I am not sure if there are) then they already have a higher price than today's price due to this expectations.

    The only thing you can do is convert all of your dollars into Yuan and then back into dollars in the future, but you will get eaten alive on the bid/ask spread by the banks.

    I showed you the chart and the currency is moving in one direction and everyone knew it would move in that direction. But there is no easy way to profit off of this movement, especially because it is only a couple percentage points per year.

    Not that easy.
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    Agree with this statement. Currency movements are a risk for any import/export business. Most businesses that I was involved with hedged to protect the core business from currency fluctuations. Businesses, especially manufacturing, are not set up to make profit out of currency movements, they attempt to make profit on their core activities.
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    I have the stock and Jan 16 LEAPs now. I follow the short term thread bc I'm always curious about the most current news and impactful events. However, the more I think about it, the more I think it is a sure thing to just hold TSLA long term instead of trying to time ups and downs. I will still follow the stock daily, but will stay disciplined enough not to sell on any potential short term catalyst that could drive the price down. Here's my simple thesis on holding the stock long term:

    a)i will hold the stock until a BEV comes out with greater than 200 miles of range that I test drive and think is comparable or better than the newest Tesla (also at least at a comparable price). My opinion is that this will happen one day, but may not be for 5-20 years from now (probably long after Elon moves onto SpaceX full time).

    b)I trust mgmt of Tesla to continue to work out margins and supply/manufacturing constraint issues in the meantime.

    c)as deliveries go up over time, especially the S and X over the next couple years , more wealthy people globally will own the car and be as amazed by it as all of us owners. At least half of them will want a piece of the stock long term like us, perhaps just 100 shares or perhaps tens of thousands of shares each. This will continue to help drive the price up and keep TSLA stock with a very expensive valuation that shorts will hate for many years and frustrate the shorts for many years with lots of volatility and more short squeezes.



    For these three simple reasons, I am projecting the stock, conservatively, to be over 1000 within 5-7 years...perhaps as little as 2-3 years from now when the E is about to come out if the general stock market stays a strong bull market until then.


    Again, this is just my own hypothesis for my own decisions, and everyone should do their own research.
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    I like the list of things you're looking for TSLAopt, as an early hint that the long investment thesis is changing. I have two additional that I suspect you are also kind of looking for anyway:
    d) Change in leadership from Elon to somebody else. I believe that this is inevitable, but to facilitate a good changeover, I'm looking for two things: 1) a COO or hand picked successor that we hear from in the news regularly, and where I hear the same commitment to revolutionizing the car business (I don't want to hear an MBA talking about cost cutting and efficiencies - this is a mission, not a recipe). 2) Gen 3 is out and past the initial volume ramp (so a broad swath of the world starts having clearer line of sight to an electric transportation future)

    e) People with a short thesis, who DO get the Model S and electric transportation more generally. Realist in the one thread is the closest so far that I know of - I listen to what they (he) have to say very carefully and consider whether the fundamental investment thesis has changed. I think this is another way of thinking about your (a) above.
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    regarding change of the Leadership:

    I think this will not happen for a very long time.
    Even if Elon won't have as much time for Tesla anymore like a real CEO should have, he will still keep his position. He understand very well that it adds to the Brand if he is the CEO.
    He might give away a lot of his daily work to somebody else, but continue to be the face of the company.

    But Elon is like Steve Jobs and replacing him with another Tim Cook, won't be good for the Brand.
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    I'm in exactly same investment strategy. In terms of Elon leaving - I think he stays until either Model E has successful launch or big auto companies show real and large commitment to electrical transport (like having multiple ground designs available for sale). This is based on his stated goals behind tesla. In any case we are probably talking 2017 at the earliest.

    Not sure of c as main driver of stock value, but I do expect significant appreciation. I don't think 100% revenue growth (all on Model S no less) between 2013 and 2014 is baked into street expectations. Solving supply constraints, doubling Model S production and setting up next leg of growth in 2015 with Model X and WW supercharger availability are going to make this a very very exciting year.

    plus there is nothing competitors will launch in 2015 that will be seen as a viable option.
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    Might Elon remain CEO mostly in name with limited actual daily involvement? Just for big announcements and big decisions? He might get bored being CEO of only one company :wink:
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    That would be my theory. He is hiring/surrounding himself with good upper management people that can carry on the TM vision now. While he may be the real 'ironman' he can not keep up this pace forever and I think/hope he is smart enough to be the 'upfront' person moving forward and letting his upper management people do the day/day;week/week;month/month duties.
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    I don't mind Elon stepping down as CEO after Gen3 has ramped production (ie, 2018 or so) since he'll remain Chairman of the Board and largest shareholder by far. Significant major decisions that affect Tesla's long term future will likely need to be passed in front of him and he would still be involved giving feedback on products and long term strategic issues.
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    Mod Note: one post and associated replies went to snippiness. There's no need for sarcastic personal digs.
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    Thanks Norse! Boggles the mind!

    "The 85 KWh battery pack for a Tesla S would go from $20,000 to $40,000 down to about $11,000.

    Lithium ion could get even cheaper (if only from economies of scale from factories that are ten times larger in China).
    Lithium Sulfur batteries are getting close to commercialization. They have the potential to drive costs to about $60 per KWh. This would be about $5000 for a Tesla S battery pack.

    The Tesla model S was picked as the Car and Driver car of the year. If it could be made three times cheaper and the follow on generation 3 is planned to be half the price of the model S.

    The Battery singularity would be the electric car singularity.

    Batteries that replace gasoline but at lower lifetime costs have the potential to completely replace combustion engines. I believe the costs will be brought down and the factory construction and scaling of the supply chain will take until about 2025. We could get to 10 million electric cars per year by about 2020 and then to 100 million by 2025.

    This would likely mean that Tesla with its large lead in electric cars would likely be selling as many cars as Toyota now and possibly 2 to 3 times as many. This would be 10 to 30 million cars. Tesla would be worth $300 billion to $2 trillion depending upon the price earnings multiple. Elon Musk has about 27-28% of Tesla. He would be worth $100 billion to $600 billion depending upon exactly how big and profitable Tesla becomes."
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    This is just awesome. I love both this article and the article it references, and the article THAT article references:

    The future of transportation -- as seen by a sci-fi author | VentureBeat | Gadgets | by William Hertling/FeldThoughts

    Energy Storage Gets Exponentially Cheaper Too | Ramez Naam

    The chart tracking how much Li-Ion battery capacity $100 buys over time is just so exciting, especially extrapolated into our near future:

    NaamUnlimitedEnergyFigure03-1024x679.jpg


    Hmm, I wonder which tech visionary will bring us cheap, renewable, automated, safe and fun electric cars, trains and even aircraft by 2030? Oh, I know which one! ;-)

    [?IMG]
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    But John Petersen keeps saying lithium batteries aren't getting cheaper.
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    Poor John, trying to stay relevant to his corporate masters. :)
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    The chart ends in 2005 - what has the trajectory been over the last 8 - 9 years?
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    Very cool Elon poster, did you do the graphics? Or have I had my head in the sand the last few months?
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    Thanks, I just found it floating around the interwebs and liked it as well. :)

    I'm not sure, because the study referenced was done in 2009 at Duke University, so I'm not sure whether they have updated their data sets. It is a very interesting to see the historical trend plotted out like that though, isn't it? Bodes well for the future, I would say.

    Did you see the other study referenced in the article? Graphic here:
    Lithium-ion-battery-experience-curve1.jpg

    For reference, here was the Duke study:
    AN EVALUATION OF CURRENT AND FUTURE COSTS FOR LITHIUM-ION BATTERIES FOR USE IN ELECTRIFIED VEHICLE POWERTRAINS
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    Saw that; looks like EV projection is ultra conservative as the actual data points are converging on the consumer battery- As consumer batteries are used in EV packs I would expect this to accelerate further;
    thanks for the Duke study link
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    And the award to the most backward US state goes to...

    So that means there was a Model S in Latvia, Morocco, and Estonia, before someone in Mississippi got one.

    (I figure, at most, I'm only offending one person on this board.)
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    Interesting to note that Texas has a good number of Tesla's considering Tesla cannot sell direct in that state, right?
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    They just can't talk prices or take orders in the stores, and you have to wire the money to California. And remember, a large minority of us Texans are normal.
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    Hey, we've got the most advanced charging infrastructure of all countries ;) Now your count is hit so hope the guys from Latvia and Marocco don't read it ;)
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    Thanks austinEV - I lol'd :)
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    And I am a Latviamoroccestonian American too, so everyone is picking on me suddenly.
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    Not really. In Texas you order your Model S online just like in any other state, then you pick it up at one of the Service Centres. The only hassle is that you have to go to the tax office with the paperwork to pay sales tax and pick up your plates. Takes about 30 minutes, most of which is standing in line.

    What Tesla employees can't do is talk about price or financing, and give test drives immediately. This is a hassle for Tesla, but it's not really a big deal for the customer.
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    guest
    I went to the rally in NYC today and got a chance for some questions to be answered by JB after his speech. Couldn't get anything new out of him about Tesla but one interesting question I asked him was which competitor he thinks has the best chance to compete with Tesla in the future for BEVs. He thinks Nissan is most likely because they are the only automaker serious about EVs but noted they still have a ways to go.


    i also asked him if it crossed his mind if he would be Elon's eventual successor considering that Elon is bringing him for this world tour of speeches/events with him.


    anyone else think JB would be the successor? Or anyone else perhaps?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Interesting article on JB from 2008:
    Innovator Under 35: JB Straubel, 32 - MIT Technology Review

    I can't think of a better person than JB. He could continue to drive innovation. In any event it won't happen until the Model E is out.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I had a chance to speak to JB last year at a Tesla event and I was very impressed. Seemed down-to-earth, very knowledgable and focused. I left the conversation thinking that he'd be a good successor as CEO when/if Elon steps down in several years. In fact, it's given me confidence to plan to hold the vast majority of my TSLA shares for a very, very long time (of course assuming Elon would remain as Chairman of the Board and largest shareholder and would input into the LT strategy and some product design).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    whistling past the graveyard

    Not sure where to post this but...

    Every ICE car commercial that I can't avoid seeing increases my confidence that Tesla is gonna eat ICE lunch, dinner, and bedtime snacks. I just saw an online commercial for a car I can't remember (only seconds later) and what three features were emphasized? Sorry, I can't remember. Except one of them was "sporty alloy pedals" (or something like that).

    So you've got 15 seconds to convince your captive audience (who is pissed off at being captive) that your car is hot and sporty. So what do you show them? Shiny pedals?

    Sorry, Mr. Car-I-can't-remember. You are done.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    LOL. Love it. I feel the same, if it's not an EV it's just old technology, and just not that interesting.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    i think this relates to long term fundamentals...when you fundamentally have a better product. i would like to echo with my experience buying an aftermarket stereo this month for my audi. cost-2100 (no speaker changes), and it sucks. you figure an aftermarket stereo would be amazing, I mean that's the companies focus, no? it literally feels so antiquated compared to the model s interface. its like i bought it in 1999. pioneer/kenwood/ alpine as for interfaces go are stuck years behind, and that goes with all overall dash layouts/control systems of all 2014 model cars. soon buttons, knobs, and touchscreen lagginess will be relics of a bygone era. the future (Tesla) is now. At the backbone of all financial matters- having a fundamentally better product, to me is the most important base for the long term success of Tesla. As when you have that, everything else (cars produced per quarter, sales in China etc) follows.

    Edit: This to me is also why Apple is waffling and personally I am not investing. The competitors have caught up. The time to invest is now.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Peter JA "So you've got 15 seconds to convince your captive audience (who is pissed off at being captive) that your car is hot and sporty. So what do you show them? Shiny pedals?"


    +1

    Added to long term fundamentals, NFLX worth $Billions in market cap on the back of a business model that involves consumers actively signing up and paying in droves to not to have to be repeatedly pissed of by commercial breaks in whatever it is they are trying to watch for entertainment.

    Heaven help the ICE boys on a trend of declining consumer numbers that can be accessed by forced-messaging. Tesla has a considerable advantage in a world in which actually making outstanding cars with an outstanding value proposition and delivering outstanding service becomes an increasingly important marketing asset.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Accessed and influenced. Contact with my retina does not mean favorable contact with my brain.

    YouTube has three types of ads. The most irritating is a banner ad that overlays the video you are trying to watch, which requires you to click to close it and back up the video to see what you missed. This is so idiotic that I can't understand how it has lasted this long. I never read the ad before I close it. If I did, the product would be associated in my brain with irritation. Note to advertisers: If you want your audience to hate your product, buy this type of ad.

    The second type is a television-like commercial before the video starts. Years of conditioning by TV make me less irritated at these, but I simply zone out for the 15 seconds and remember nothing (unless something especially idiotic catches my attention like shiny alloy pedals). Other video sites use 30-second commercials, which always irritate me because they are longer than the YouTube ones.

    The third type on YouTube is a long (multi-minute) commercial that you can skip after 5 seconds. I actually don't mind these, maybe because I still enjoy saying **** you to the advertiser by clicking the Skip button. Sometimes I watch the whole 2 minutes when the ad agency has worked hard to present something beautiful or funny or visually arresting. But then they have to somehow tie that entertainment to the product. Volkswagen ads have made me laugh, but did they make me buy a Volkswagen? Not yet.

    The longterm trend caused by diverse communication devices is higher quality information in ads (targeted and/or entertaining) and higher quality products. The smartest companies will do both.
    Tesla Model S - Winter Driving Redefined - YouTube
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There's a bit of discussion on the short-term thread about Jeremy Grantham's reaction to being driven in a Model S. The following snip from the full Barron's interview is, in my opinion, worthy of this L-T thread and quite something coming from a man who knows about the oil business and resources in general:

    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Get Adblockplus, it removes ALL the adds on YouTube and pop-ups on your computer. It's soooooo good, Wish I'd found out about it years ago. Adblock Plus - Surf the web without annoying ads!, it's just a add-on script to your browser.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Actually i can second that on adblock plus, it's about the best thing I've discovered. Free, and it takes about 30 sec to add to your browser.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Don't know where to put this, but Ashton Kutcher has a great mentality that works for moving things forward, ex. EV movement. "The people are going to have what the people want."

    Starts around the 3 minute mark about how Uber was first not allowed in certain cities:

    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EU about to sign a transatlantic trade deal with the US, which would eliminate all the import tax on Tesla Cars.
    This is huge!
    Im not sure what the import tax rate was but afaik it was 15-20%
    That would put TM in a much better position.

    So I guess Teslas second factory will be definitely in China and not the EU.
    This deal makes it much easier for Tesla to scale up and go mass-market.
    Especially in the low-cost class of Model-E the importax would have been a big hurdle, and building a factory in Europe would have been necessary but now thats not longer the case.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/06/us-eu-usa-trade-idUSBREA1519S20140206
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The article mentions the EU import tariff for US cars is 10% (while the US charges a 2% tariff for EU-made cars). This would definitely help Tesla. As for the gain today, that article seems to have been released yesterday morning. Maybe a delayed reaction, but I'm more likely to say it was just the overall market momentum.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agreed. The general positive market combined with money flowing out of LNKD, TWTR, other 'momos' to get into TM before earnings.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Are we completely sure Tesla didn't already avoid this Tariff with their facility in Tilburg?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You have a point there mister. The reason why Norwegian cars does not go thru Tilburg is because we do not tax the Teslas. So I guess they save some taxes because they are doing this.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good point, I'm honestly not sure. Did Tesla ever give a breakdown of EU pricing like they did for China? I'm just going through pricing on a few of the EU sites and this is what I'm finding:

    The US prices are $71,070/$81,070/$94,570 for S60/S85/P85 base models without the $7500 tax credit.

    Germany


    		S60S85P85
    Base price65,74075,34088,040
    VAT10,50012,50014,000
    Price - VAT55,24062,84074,040
    Price in USD75,28185,638100,901
    Premium over US price5.93%5.63%6.69%
    France (would appreciate someone explaining the reason for much lower prices - does Tesla the company get some incentive in France?)


    		S60S85P85
    Base Price59,44069,04081,840
    VAT11,00012,50014,500
    Price - VAT48,44056,54067,340
    Price in USD66,01477,05291,771
    Premium over US price-7.12%-4.96%-2.96%
    Netherlands


    		S60S85P85
    Base Price66,64076,24088,700
    VAT11,50013,00015,500
    Price - VAT55,14063,24073,200
    Price in USD75,14586,18399,757
    Premium over US price5.73%6.31%5.48%
    Norway (converted to USD)

    $75,032/$85,062/$98,780 (5.57%/4.92%/4.45%)

    This is a bit lower than pricing in Germany and the Netherlands, but not by that much (obviously not including other incentives). If Norway has no import tax on the Model S, then I'm guessing Germany and the Netherlands don't either. The premium probably just accounts for the cost of transatlantic shipping and final assembly to EU specs. Still wondering about that pricing in France... is it accurate? :confused:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Crude math observation about the reservation rate of Model X compared to Model S at this point in their early life:

    Model X Tally - Page 74
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, I don't know if your math is correct, but I can't argue with the trend you are seeing. I've been saying for a while now, people underestimate the Model X. Most analysys I've read puts its potential (well) below Model S sales figures. But it is an SUV, and SUVs are all the rage these days, especially in the US. Add to that the stunning looks (i swear Franz can make a pig look like Angelina Jolie), the performance, the range and the Tesla reputation and "coolness factor" the Model S created. We just passed 10k preorders in January by the TMC guesstimate, and we are almost at 11k now. This thing is going to be a huge hit. If Elon decides to reveal or even hint at preorder figures during the 2014 outlook call, or the X production version reveal, TSLA will explode.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    When did Tesla removed the Model X single motor option?
    Am I mistaken or did tesla offered initially the option of Single Moter, Dual Motor, Dual Motor Performance.
    If they removed the single motor option, that could be a sign that TM is expecting that the Model X will be supply restricted for years to come.
    Also the fact that there are already 10000 Reservation of the Model x of which 1200 are Signature Edition.
    Thats 1200x40000$= 48Mio in down payments.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You are correct that single and dual motor drives were initially offered. If memory serves me correctly, the single (RWD) motor version option was removed a couple months ago.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There is a �7000,= subsidy on all EV's in France. This explains why dealer demo's are so cheap. Renault Zoe's are offered �9/10k less than MRSP with 500-4000km on the odometer.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks... they actually mentioned this on the website too, I just missed it :redface: Looks like the 7,000 was recently reduced to 6,300.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The easiest and unbiased method would be to check Other EU as region. It's a blanket covering all other countries and includes no local taxes (i.e. VAT) or incentives. So pure EU specifics with no local bias.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Tesla ships the Model S disassembled with motor, inverter and battery as "car parts". They pay 10% import tax for the "car" and 5% for "car parts" so they save 5% on the price of "car parts" whatever it is. But the sum seems big enough to go thru that hassle.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks Volker! This means its good news!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    would be intresting to know how much of the endprice is shipped as carpartsto europe, and to know if the battery is also shipped as a carpart, my guess is it is.
    But I cant imagine that they manage to get on an overall rate of under 6.5% tax rate + the extra assemblyline in the netherlands.
    The tradedeal would eliminate all that.
    So it is infact very good news, and I surprised that all the hastle with the assembly line in netherlands so so proftable to worth doing it. Esp. Now when tesla has relativly low delivery volumes to europe excluding Norway.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Makes me wonder if this deal will result in Tesla shuttering their Netherlands assembly facility. Surely (aside from tax considerations) it's more costly to ship a partially assembled vehicle and parts than to ship a complete vehicle. Unlike Ikea furniture, the pieces are more voluminous than the finished product. Moreover, one nice thing about shipping completed cars is that you can move them by driving them. (There's a huge car import facility about 1/4 mile from my home.)

    OTOH, Tesla would generate unwelcome publicity if it closed down the facility and laid off a bunch of workers. So my guess is that they'll continue as they have been.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, if they need European tweaks and a distribution center anyway, it probably won't hurt them much. Besides, they are looking to expand in the future. As long as it's not a huge burden, probably better to keep the trained workforce.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Point of clarification:
    Do you think they ship the motor and inverter separately or together? I presumed they would ship the drive unit as one piece.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    IIRC the inverter is an integral part of the motor unit. Wouldn't make sense to ship separately. (Feel free to start a discussion in the Model S section though)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Meanwhile, in the world of journalism . . .

    teslagas.jpg
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    OMFG
    At first I thought its an the Onion article.

    but here is that beauty
    The Case for Tesla Making a Gasoline Car - TheStreet

    Its even 3 pages long, not sure I will read it.



    Next the will write an article how Apple should introduce a CD walkmans, showing stunning sales numbers from the 90s.
    Actually I think Tesla really should use that opportunity and offer Horse buggies in there Tesla stores, I will email "The Street" with this brilliant idea.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

    That's so wierd. I know it's not politically correct but man, this guy must be mentally retarded.

    "What if Tesla made a gasoline car? At the moment, it's as unlikely as it gets, but imagine the value created if Tesla did it!"

    Uhm, no.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow. That's hilarious. Next he will suggest that PETA start selling Hamburgers. :D
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That was a painful read.

    Tesla making gas cars is about as likely as Rolex making luminous sundials.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Amazing... you should tweet that to Elon. Wonder if it has ever crossed his mind?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thats really not a nice thing to say Johan, that puts mentally retarded people in a very bad light.
    This guy must be on some newage drugs or something.

    Its just beyond my wildest imaginations how such people get to write article about Companies.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sorry if someone took offence. Smoking something or maybe just plain stupid would be better to say. Anyway that montage made me giggle. True facepalm.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My reply to the article:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Now you guys are offending those of us that are new age druggies who smoke things. Remember, if it wasn't for stupid people like the author of that article, we wouldn't have made so much money off TSLA so far.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree. I think it is sensible to say " As a thought experiment, suppose Tesla Model S cars were always just gasoline powered cars. Now imagine they used the showroom/direct model as they do now to sell these cars. Would we not perceive that as a remarkable, futuristic, customer-friendly innovation in and of itself? Isn't it all the more remarkable that people tend to undervalue that as a strategic asset of Tesla motors"
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Was thinking about the article and this article is actually a "long" article.
    The article states that the direct sales model is a key advantage Tesla has over its competitors.
    That debunks the argument that Tesla is screwed if the other big manufacturer just start producing EVs and cut right into Teslas Margin.
    So in a EV future Tesla will be the only one Car manufacturer in the US who can sell directly to customers.

    I already knew that, but just funny that he points it out indirectly.
    �
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