Chủ Nhật, 30 tháng 10, 2016

Alternative Energy Investor Discussions part 4

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That is correct. I wanted to concentrate on Spwr earnings tomorrow since sol does not report till aug 15 and csiq has not announced its earnings date as far as I know.
    �
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    guest
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    guest
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    guest
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    guest
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    guest
    Finally, SPWR is making some good moves upward. I've been holding it since the 3rd week of May.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Mod Note: Updated thread title to reflect actual content/direction.

    Popular opinion seems to be to keep this thread in the Investor sub-forum, the original connection between Solar City and Tesla was pretty clear and I guess that other alternative energy stocks were destined to slide in here. However, let's please not turn this into a completely open area where all and sundry is discussed. Thanks.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hi NigelM - just a quick comment. "Alternative Energy" is quite broad (ie., wind, hydro, algae, nuclear, natural gas, etc). I'd rather have the thread named, "Solar Investor Discussions" to keep it focused on solar stocks.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    @DaveT, it's kinda up to you guys to keep it focussed. Mods will still consider it....
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SPWR now down $0.25 after hours... ouch
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Completely forgot I got some SUNE Stocks, they have Q2 report on the 7th of August, same day as Tesla and SCTY. If they provide good results then (With the already great News from SPWR:) that might spike a rally before SOL`s earnings on the 15th
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Since when after hours count for anything ? also 0.25 down is nothing compared to how much it jumped today...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    tmrw after hours will Count for alot!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This. Around earnings after hours volatility with volume can mean alot. But yes it came back up, crisis averted.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looks like the shorts are really piling into SPWR today. Might make for a very interesting day tomorrow. I checked my brokers website and it looks like they don't have any shares available to short (said you would have to borrow from external sources or something like that).

    - - - Updated - - -

    'Short' Checklist for SPWR:

    Steady Revenue Growth - check
    Positive margin expansion - check
    Fast EPS growth - check
    One of the fastest growing companies - check
    In the fastest growing industry in the world - check
    Has a knack for crushing analyst estimates - check
    Stabilizing Average Selling Prices around the world - check
    Eu-China negotiated deal will make SPWR more competitive in EU - check
    Analyst just upgraded SPWR yesterday - check
    "Huge" second half financially coming up - check
    CEO says "demand in America has been phenomenally good" - check
    North America makes up over 70% of SPWR business - check
    30% of Public float already shorted - check
    Set up for a huge short squeeze - check


    Looks like the "perfect" short candidate to me:wink:


    Edit: I am going to go on record and make a prediction here: Shorts are going to get crushed tomorrow and throughout the next week.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ya i am really debating putting my last pennies in on the SPWR dip today.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    just got 400 at 27.38
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sleepy,

    Agree with your checklist wholeheartedly..let's hope the market see its that way as well. BTW, have you done any more research on sunedision (SUNE), which reports on August 7 before the market opens...it looks promising based on several articles I have read, although I have not done extensive leg work on it.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If SPWR stays stable and hums along around this level, I am going to wait until after 2pm EST when the FED report comes out as i think its bound to drive the market lower.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have not done much research on SUNE. I have also read a few articles about it and they were all positive. It sounds like a sleeper pick to me; nobobdy is talking about it, yet it is growing nicely. I have not done enough research to buy it though.
    �
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    guest

    After the run up is over, I hope to be getting a big - cheque.
    �
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    guest
    I am thinking of adding a few more dollars to SPWR after 2pm. ...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looks like the Fed pulled the ole we dont want you mad at us so we are just going to let things ride. Bad news for me since i pulled some of my stock form other company's yesterday expecting a market pull back today. However, this is good news going into SPWR earnings since there no bear market holding back what should be a fun ride.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just like I said a couple of days ago; it was pretty predictable. The Fed finally realized that it has to underpromise (lowered economy growth outlook) and overdeliver (economy will pick up).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Any details of where I can find the report or when its gonna be out? Working 13 hours shift so cant follow to much, I even probably gotta og to sleep in two hours, so I cant follow the after-market fun!

    Cheers and lets og boys! Im allin!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I've had a little money out of the market the last couple days. I used it to pick up some SPWR calls last hour. I thought about selling some stuff for the ER but didn't want to go in too much.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What calls did you buy if you don't mind me asking.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I noticed extremely heavy inflation on the Premiums today. My Aug $30 calls are up 26% yet the stock has been down all day.
    I guess alot of people betting on good Q2 ER
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I bought some calls this morning when SPWR was cratering and they almost doubled by now. IV goes up big time before earnings.

    @Norse - the results come out in 33 minutes.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Shame we cratered right here at the end. would of been nice going into ER with a 28.00 on the board
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    wtf! thoose options are really cheap
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sleepy this better be good :cursing:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    +1...spent the last of my available funds on several additional Spwr calls during the temporary dip...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    AUG $25s. Probably stupid as if it drops I lose a bunch of money, but I'm mostly protected if it drops only a little or stays the same. I only bought 4 of them so I'm not sweating it :D
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    All I can say is that if I am wrong then I will lose a lot more money (relatively speaking) than all of you guys.

    This is still a great long-term investment, but in the short run it is hard to tell. Buying options before earnings is just gambling, so there is a lot more risk. That said, I was confident enough to buy plenty.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I just paid 1.55 for 15 contracts @ $30 Aug for SPWR. I realize I am paying a premium because I waited till the last minute.... We'll see how this turns out.

    This is a pure gamble for me with some of my SCTY earnings (I got in on the day of the IPO at $11, sold half at $24 and still hold the other half). Either way, thank you all for your insights into this discussion. I got burned with TSL, CSIQ and the like in the past and have been very hesitant to play in the field (until the EM effect pulled me into SCTY). The quality of the research on this board gives me more confidence to invest in solar again.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    They are just saying that as a caution to you in case you dont know what your doing. Probably an automated email. They have no idea what is actually going to happen in the ER.
    I would trust Sleepy alot more on that then your broker.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Im in the same boat as u sleepy. I`ll rather lose Money than see all what I coulda gain With a push of a button. If I loose it all it`s all good! If I win, im sending you a bottle of myfavourite Norwegian beer!

    GL boys!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Is it just me or am I the only one that has the same kinda happy butterflies that I had before TSLA Q1, haha.
    This is basically like walking into Vegas and putting 5K on black. (only with a bit extra confidence)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was allin on TSLA Q1, still im in With alot more this time!
    �
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    guest
    anyone got a link to the audio feed of the call (if there is even one?)
    �
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    guest
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    guest
    wow Down 5%, bad News out?

    up again, wtf was that
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You managed to convince everyone on this thread. If you're wrong, you're taking many others with you. :smile:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    ummm down 1.05...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    IDK man, they reported EPS of $0.48 vs. $0.11 analyst expectations. That should be good right?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    THis after hours is nuts
    But didnt TSLA do that too on Q1. sharp down for a quick second then up up and away?
    �
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    guest
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    guest
    Yup there is goes :)
    �
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    guest
    They reported eps of 0.15 (gaap) beating avg analyst estimates of 0.11, and right at the top of their guidance range for the qtr.
    �
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    guest
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No. Their GAAP guidance was negative for this quarter. the $0.11 analyst average was for non-GAAP. They guided toward $0.05 - $0.15 non-GAAP and delivered $0.48.

    SPWR also raised FY guidance to $1 - $1.30 from a previous $0.60 - $0.80 just two and a half months ago!!! So that stock is basically trading at a 20x PE ratio for this year's earnings; give me a break!

    Tough Market! Don't people see the growth? Maybe they are waiting for the conference call which starts in 15 minutes. I guess it's up 3%, but I was expecting more with these kind of earnings.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    :biggrin:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Damn! Was hoping for a massive jump :(
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was expecting more as well. We might have to see what kind of short squeeze plays into tomorrow's trading because i bet some shorts are going to bail out seeing those numbers.
    At least i hope... only 1.5% gain now...
    Maybe to much was baked in with yesterday's 7% run up?

    - - - Updated - - -

    ok Negative, now..... WTF?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You dont sell on News With a 30% short of the float. Then they shoulda sold 2 minutes before Close. Who the hell sells now? WTF?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Without significant stock movement, the options will get hammered due to volatility crush.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am dumbfounded right now... Stock is falling like a rock.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20130731-718493.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-31/sunpower-reports-second-quarter-profit-on-higher-demand.html

    "The company reported net income of $19.6 million, or 15 cents a share, compared
    with a net loss of $84.2 million, or 71 cents, a year earlier, San Jose,
    California-based SunPower said today in a statement. The company, which hasn�t
    reported a profit since the fourth quarter of 2010, was expected to lose 17
    cents a share"

    "SunPower is benefiting from higher prices in Europe and surging demand in Japan, Ben Kallo,
    analyst at Robert W Baird & Co. in San Francisco, said today in an interview
    before the earnings were released. He raised his price target to $34 a share
    from $24 in a research note yesterday"

    Now how the hell do you sell under 28 now, if u didnt earlier today? HOW?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    -1.5% = rock ? in what world do you live in ?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    i saw -1% to -2.5% in a minute. Speaking that is was just +5% 30min ago, that is still pretty damn fast.
    Either way an earnings beat like this shouldnt be negative in the least bit.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    lets wait for the entire conf call to finish and see what the open looks like tomorrow....
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Tough market. After Q4 earnings were released this Feb. SPWR went down like 7% the next day. The day after that it went up 20% and about 60%-70% for the week. Not saying it will happen again, but sometimes things don't always go how you think they will. I am glad that they didn't simply meet expectations; that apparently would have hurt.

    I don't know how the stock can go down after earnings like this. It is hard to understand. Maybe people were looking for stronger revenue growth, which didn't happen.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yup, you were right thou, in every way. They did good, but the market is hard to understand sometimes :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Q3 revenue guidance below consensus. That is killing it.

    4:16PM SunPower beats by $0.37, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 revs below consensus; guides FY13 revs in-line (SPWR) 27.65 -0.45 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.48 per share, $0.37 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.11; revenues fell 3.3% year/year to $576.5 mln vs the $576.99 mln consensus.

    Co issues downside guidance for Q3, sees Q3 revs of $575-625 mln vs. $687.41 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. The company's third quarter 2013 consolidated non-GAAP guidance is as follows: revenue of $550 million to $600 million, gross margin of 17 percent to 19 percent, net income per diluted share of $0.15 to $0.35 and megawatts (MW) recognized in the range of 240 MW to 260 MW. On a GAAP basis, the company expects revenue of $575 million to $625 million, gross margin of 20 percent to 22 percent and net income per diluted share of $0.10 to $0.30.

    Co issues in-line guidance for FY13, sees FY13 revs of $2.5-2.6 bln vs. $2.58 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. For fiscal year 2013, the company expects non-GAAP revenue of $2.5 billion to $2.6 billion, gross margin of 18 percent to 20 percent, net income per diluted share of $1.00 to $1.30, capital expenditures of $60 million to $80 million and gigawatts (GW) recognized in the range of 1.0 GW to 1.1 GW. On a GAAP basis, the company expects revenue of $2.45 billion to $2.55 billion, gross margin of 17 percent to 19 percent and net income (loss) per diluted share of ($0.05) to $0.20.

    SunPower remains on track to reduce its operational expenses by 10 percent compared to 2012 and expects to generate free cash flow, including lease financings, in the range of $100 million to $200 million while continuing to invest in its technology roadmap and manufacturing cost reduction initiatives.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes. Even the day after that.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Man, market is so weird. The call was awesome, amazing numbers, and great forward guidance. I bought some Aug 35 calls today and thought that was a good move after initially seeing the news. I guess we will see tomorrow, or soon, if the market will grant them a bump. Hopefully the bump is delayed as Sleepy described from Q4
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yup, the media is positive, so I think we`re allright. New targets will come on and it will rise. T
    he EU-China deal is also good as the chinese panels, which are not as good as SPWRs, have to sell at the same price as SPWR.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Here is a link to an article in IBD: SunPower Earnings Clobber Views As Solar Stocks Shine - Investors.com


    hopefully, in a day or two, the market will see this in a different light, especially if the analysts spin it in a positive way. Regardless, many thanks to sleepy for all of his hard work!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    First of all: These results for SPWR are fantastic!

    Looks like wall street's problem is due to revenue guidance for Q3. Analysts had a consensus of $680m and the company guided towards $550m - $600m. This is really dumb, since the company's revenue guidance has not changed for the full year, which is in-line with analyst expectations. All this means is that the analysts got the timing of the revenue recognition incorrect. Q4 revenue number will be a lot higher than analysts expected and Q3 will be lower. Please figure this one out by tomorrow morning Wall Street!

    Overall, SunPower beat or crushed every guidance it gave for the quarter and met revenue expectations. It doubled it's EPS guidance for FY13 (from two and half months ago) on significantly higher gross margins. Revenue isn't going to go up that easily, because the cost to produce the panels is falling quickly. This means that SPWR can sell them a lot cheaper, hence lower revenues, and still make a big profit; which is all that matters at the end of the day.

    Overall the investment thesis in SPWR is stronger than ever. The company guided towards $1.20/share or so for FY13. If you put a modest (for a growth company) PE ratio of 20x, that gives a $24 stock price. This imo is the floor as far as stock price goes. If you see SPWR fall below $24, then it is time to buy. If the company is earning $1.20 (probably a lot more since these guys always low-ball) this year, then it is earning a lot more next year. Growth story is still alive and shares will continue a steady climb. This is still a great investment opportunity.

    They are at full capacity at all manufacturing facilities. This is good, because it means that they can raise their prices, since they are selling out anyway. Also, they are opening a new Fab 4 plant in a year or two which will raise capacity by 50%. So imagine 50% higher revenues in 2015.

    SPWR is still set to double in price within the next couple of years. Those who bought in at $18 a month ago are still enjoying 50% gains. For those of us who bought short-term OTM options, my self included, hopefully this will serve as a lesson that there is huge risks by trying to "get rich quick." Your timing has to be impeccable with option purchases and a lot of luck is involved. Buying shares or LEAPS is still the safest way to make money.

    I still think the share price will be in the 30's in the near future and it probably should (not saying that it will) be around $50 by the end of 2013.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Great analysis. Thanks. ! How much are you down? At what point do you attempt to sell the options?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was accidentally looking at the GAAP revenue number and actually just realized that they crushed Revenue estimates as well (and not simply met as I previously wrote).

    The reason they beat on revenue is because they were 3 months ahead on the CVSR project (this is a good thing right?). That is another reason why revenue guidance was lower for Q3 than analysts expectations - they accelerated revenues into Q2. I don't see this as a negative though like the market did; imagine if the market penalized Tesla for rolling out their supercharger network too fast because it raise expenses for next quarter's results.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I don't know, because I don't know how much my options will be worth tomorrow morning. IV will go down significantly tomorrow. I bought my deep OTM Aug and J14 options a couple of weeks ago and they have gone up in value, so I might be close to break even if I sell tomorrow morning; sucks to lose all those gains though. I had close to $20k in SPWR options today, so tomorrow they might be worth $10k. I made a lot of money on SPWR, since I have been buying it at $7, then $5, and more at $4; then even more on the way up. You can't win them all I guess.

    I still think that SPWR should go up by the end of the week; these results are too good for the stock to go down. What kind of earnings did people expect? After the company raised EPS guidance to $1.20+, how can you still be short this company? There is no reason that you should be short SPWR. Short interest is still at 30%, and the shorts should be running for the hills after this earnings release.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    sleepyhead, Thanks for all your great analysis to this point and for giving a lot of us a crash course in solar stocks. As far as I can tell you nailed the earnings beat, and long-term forward guidance looks good as well even if Q3 is somewhat below expectations. I bought in a couple days ago (just stock, not options) and I think this is a great mid-long term play and don't plan to sell any time soon. I do hope the market wakes up in the next few days so everyone who is playing the options game can cash in too though.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have to agree with StapleGun, your analysis was great. We can tell you put a lot of time and effort in it. It was logical and concise.

    Don't second guess yourself. Now is the time to sit back and watch everybody else figure out what we already know.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, I'm buying tomorrow. I have a very small position and was waiting for a pull back to add.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
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    guest
    Sleepy what about getting an article published in SA? Still alot of time before our options runs out. If anyone can write a good o e. Its u!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agreed sleepy. They crushed earnings for the qtr and raised full year guidance. Would be a shame if the street were to focus only on the q3 guidance. Hoping for a similar move to what occurred in feb.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Looks like Northland Capital has raised price target to 38 from 33 on strong q2 earnings. Looking for a link to the upgrade.

    - - - Updated - - -

    The stock is very quiet this morning with almost no movement at all...looks like it wants to take its time to digest the news as the participants wait for a trend to buy or dump...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hope it rises.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Pre-market has it down 2.7%...
    �
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    guest
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    guest
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    guest
    We needed this! Anyhow, im not selling, and if it drops, im gonna buy some Jan14 and 15 calls. This stock will not look back again. I think they will dominate North-America, and be big in Europe and Japanwhat about u sleepy? Selling anything?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    looks like Zacks has reaffirmed strong buy on spwr. Can't speak for sleepy, but I am planning to close my position in spwr by next weds pm in order to raise capital for tsla earnings. Afterwards, will reinitiate position, assuming I am not broke :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Zacks is welcome aswell :) cant sell now!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am not selling and I don't see how you can sell. After this earnings report, I see no reason why you would want to be short this stock; SPWR will be running production at full capacity for at least the next 18 months (probably indefinitely, since the solar revolution is only in its very early stages) and they are slowly becoming very profitable. If I was a short I would be quietly closing out my position today before it is too late. Costs (both operating and COGS) will continue to go down and paired with stabilizing ASP's will make this company even more profitable.

    I am not "selling" my SPWR stock, but I will have to trim a little bit so that I can load up on Tesla before earnings. I basically put a vast majority of my money in SPWR prior to earnings, so I have to redistribute a little to TSLA; I will still hold a very significant position in SPWR though. I am not selling today either, I am going to give it a few days for the stock to cross $30. I will wait for all of the weak longs to exit first.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I got in yesterday with August (strike 35, 24, 23) option calls and sold them at the open of market today.

    I don't think it's going to be a pretty day for SPWR today.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't know anything about this company but they just announced a low cost tracking system for solar panels, which should improve the output of any panel.
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mass-megawatts-wind-power-inc-112400582.html

    - - - Updated - - -

    Certainly ugly at the open :scared:
    �
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    guest
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    guest
    Ouch. Afraid to even look at my AUG calls
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    2 mill shorts out. still atleast 10 to go. It was 30% of the float, this is the time to buy.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, this was a unpleasant surprise... but it gives opportunity for new investors to get in on the drop. I only got in yesterday at 27.38 and just doubled my position today at $25.50 just lowered my average.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Where did you get this information from? Link please?

    I bought some more Aug $29 calls when the price of SPWR was around $25.50, lets hope this works out. So far they are up about 30%, but I never know when to sell.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Me too, what's another 1k, right? :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    http://247wallst.com/energy-business/2013/07/25/short-interest-in-solar-energy-companies-takes-a-breather/

    I was thinking about the 2 mill traded after Q2 announcement. Might be off thou. I wish I had money to buy AUG calls now, they are INSANE cheap. But Im already allin.

    also read this: http://www.thestreet.com/story/11992312/4/5-earnings-short-squeeze-plays.html

    If it goes back up again on high volume, then it`l break out?
    Cant trust everything u read thou.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    You said the same happened last earnings? Down 7% the following day and up 10% the day after? Cant find where i read that, who is doing that?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    sleepy,

    One way to play options that has been very profitable for traders (as no one really knows when to sell) is a delayed construct bull call spread. Say you bought the aug 29 call for $1. As spwr goes up in price, you wait to sell a higher strike call for the price you paid for your aug 29 call. Lets say spwr repeats the same move it made in feb and gets to a point where you can sell the aug 34 call for $1. By doing this, you have created a bull call spread which is risk free in that you have gotten your initial $1 back and now have a $5 width bull call spread prob trading for around $3-4 with $1-2 additional profit. You can now ride spwr for additional gains, with your initial capital back in your pocket to deploy if spwr drops or to deploy in other stocks such as tsla. Best of both worlds IMHO.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I had hope for a bit there then we dove back off the deep end :(
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Can't understand the market movement this morning. Why is SPWR down 6-8% just after such a great conference call? What am I missing?
    Just because of low-balling Q3 total revenue?
    Even with all the great news from the company?
    Cause for worry, or time to buy?
    Dave T: Why do you think its going to be so ugly for SPWR today? And why are you selling on the good news?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No, last quarter it went up about 20%, it was the quarter before that this happened. It doesn't mean that it will happen again though. Long term, this is a good buying opportunity. Playing short-term options is just too risk, I had to find out the hard way though.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    As have I :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ya i had some Jan options that should hopefully come to bear fruit. I will probably buy a few more Jan options on this dip. We know they are a good company and the stock will recover.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Here's why I sold at market open today... (note: I bought August calls at various strikes yesterday because I thought we had a decent chance of a short squeeze).
    - after listening to the earnings call, it was evident there was no short squeeze possible.
    - revenue guidance concerning because already production capped, so limited revenue growth over next several months at least. In other words, we're not going to see huge revenue growth over the next several months from SPWR, thus in my investment paradigm it moves from a high-growth stock to a moderate-growth stock in the near-term. Thus, stock price gets hit.
    - $100m pull-forward from second half. If you listened to the earnings call, they pulled forward revenue from second half. This is concerning to me because why did they have to pull forward $100m? Sure, there are different views on this, but it's still concerning because if they hadn't pulled forward $100m then they would Q2 would be a $80m loss and a huge earnings disappointment. I personally didn't like how the management tried to spin the quarter as a huge success when the analysts are on the call were clearly doubtful.
    - in general, the stock market offers other high-growth stock opportunities, and when SPWR shows some weakness (this is what they showed in the earnings call IMO) w/revenue, pull-forward, production caps, etc., then I think it can signal to funds/institutions to pull money out of the stock into other high-growth opportunities (ie., other stock). (note: don't get me wrong, they also showed strength as well with high gross margins, raising eps guidance, etc. But the points of weakness they showed still show an adjustment of their growth trajectory IMO.)
    - overall, I don't doubt SPWR is a good company or that it has a good mid or long term future as a stock. Just in the short term, I think the stock could get hit w/funds and institutions not impressed by Q2 results and potential of revenue growth, thus moving money out.
    - lastly, though I don't doubt SPWR is a good company (their panels are very, very good and they have lots of fans), I do doubt that they're a stellar company. In the long-term, I believe in SCTY's model more and thus I'm not willing to risk more loss in SPWR considering I see significant downside risk.
    - i sold my august calls at market open because i thought the stock was going to stabilize in the coming weeks at $20-25 (this is just my opinion) as funds pull money but the stock/company gives little incentive for new investors to come on board.

    Note: I don't want this to be a post to scare people to sell SPWR. If you researched SPWR and solar thoroughly I would stick with what you know. These are just comments on why I sold this morning. I'm willing to expand on any of the thoughts if anyone wishes.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Dave: Thank you so much for posting your perspectives on this.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    -9% this is getting serious, my margin call will kick in when we get to 11%, hoping for a change

    Already 5k in the red :(
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Excellent analysis indeed. I'm holding my SPWR stock and Jan '15 options for the long term but not adding anything right now. I'll revisit SPWR come next earnings.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    try to hang in there until the selling subsides and perhaps, next week, good earnings reports from Sune, fslr, and scty could lift spwr.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    indeed, I'm down 1k. going to hand in there. once they realize that the reason they low balled the 3rd quarter is because their factories are at 100% and their objective to continue to lower expenses that in turn will end up with higher profits. we should get up pressure... at least that is my hope.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I guess I don't know SPWR enough to take the risk so I did the safest thing possible, I opened a naked put position yesterday for Aug Put @25. Even with the selling today, I am breaking even. I might roll into further OTM put. This is the first of 2 trades that I touch the Solar stocks in a long time after getting burned by FSLR last year. I did the same with SCTY and it is pretty safe.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If the support level holds at $25 then we could see a slow increase the next few days from Longs adding to their positions.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    "SPWR still has plenty of fans on Wall Street, as well, as Credit Suisse, Baird, and Northland all upped their respective 12-month price targets on the shares earlier today. What's more, further price-target hikes could be in the cards; the current consensus view of $22.99 sits below the stock's current price, even following today's decline."

    Havent seen that credit suisse one, but I know they have been sceptical before.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    i'm losing my head here, wtf is going on... :(

    almost 12%, im finnished if this doesnt bounceback tomorrow...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    i think he market just read it too. Dive Bomb!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    I didn't think the GS report was that bad....price target was raised from $20 to $22...seems to remind me of the GS "downgrade" of tsla several weeks ago and look how that turned out.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Summary from Barron's of all the analysts commentary on spwr's recent qtr:

    SunPower Drops 13% Even as Estimates, Targets Rise - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com

    and IBDs recent article:

    SunPower Dives - Solar Stocks' Dangerfield Moment? SPWR - Investors.com

    and motley fool calling it a flawless qtr:

    SunPower Shows Its Dominance in Solar (SPWR)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If it makes anybody feel better, I'm going down with the Sep 30 Calls ship. I did however install a stop on my stock to lock in gains, that was tripped fairly early this morning. I'm down overall but that help the bleeding. Hopefully there's a turnaround before theta does any damage.

    Shoulda coulda woulda bought puts.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I almost bought a PUT last night to hedge - am so regretting not having done it.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So can someone explain the diving today ?

    Quoted from a diff website, is that a good explanation?

    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Even my safest play - the naked Aug put @25 got stopped out. I took a loss.

    However I set the exit as one trigger another trade. So I sold the Aug put @23. Seems fine to to me. Should be able to recoup the lost on the Aug put @25.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's been very quiet over here all of a sudden. People licking their wounds? Perhaps it's helpful to post your today's losses so we sympathize. Mine is not too bad, my SPWR stocks lost 12.48%, my Jan '15 calls 22.95%. It's all on paper though so no real money lost yet. Also, TSLA had a good day today, and most here probably hold TSLA as well. So you lose some, you win some. :smile:
    �
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