Thứ Hai, 31 tháng 10, 2016

Alternative Energy Investor Discussions part 29

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    "Well your honor, I bought SCTY at the IPO price of $8 and had a cool 1000% gain going when it hit $88, but now because of the accounting hiccup I am up only 900%. So, that is why I am suing SCTY."
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Judge.... Listen, Judge.... It's just not fair, Judge....
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Haha. I must confess, I invested in SCTY for the first time two weeks ago. I bought one march call contract and sold it today for a 50% gain. I bought it for a gifafactory play. However partners were not announced so I sold it today.

    I feel like I am spoiled because 50% gains in two weeks "almost" seem disappointing. I was talking with a friend the other week and I said one of our options only got a 200% gain and he gasped and said "ONLY??? What kinda of returns have you been getting to say only to a 200% gain?".
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    For those interested in this angle, there is a new article in today's WSJ about grid security: Transformers Expose Limits in Securing Power Grid. They talk at length about how hard it is to replace transformers and how long it takes. They point out that the biggest of the transformers in use can be built by only one manufacturer in the U.S., and only three or four are capable of making the large sizes that experts see as likely sabotage targets.

    This issue seems to be getting more visibility in the mainstream press, and I think Solar manufacturers should really give it a more prominent place in their marketing efforts. I'm not one for fear mongering to increase sales (or for any reason), but the current state of complacency isn't warranted either. Solar + battery storage buys you so much more than lower electricity bills, and I suspect many people who don't think of themselves as "green" would seriously consider such a system for peace of mind.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Adding an EV to the solar + battery mix takes you up the next level in security, too -- gasoline pumps don't work with no electricity, as residents of New Jersey and Long Island discovered after Hurricane Sandy.

    The high-voltage transmission network is highly vulnerable. One could (arguably) lock down the transformer stations at fairly low cost, but the towers? No way. Of course those are easier to replace than transformers, but you could wreak havoc easily enough. There's also a lot of concern about hacking into the software that controls power plants and/or power grids -- the easiest way to blow up transformers or take down power lines is to overload them seriously, which could all be done by software.

    The good news is that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and other agencies are taking this threat seriously. I'm sure it creates some investment opportunities, though I don't know where.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    According to my salesman from SCTY, there are future plans for Tesla owners to use the car batteries as backup with their SCTY systems. Meaning the current could flow in and back out of the car, either way. I have had my SCTY system in for 8 months, I was offered the back-up battery, but then he said, "you don't really need it, there will be a way to use your car at some point".
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Elon is on record saying they will not be doing this. It was in one of the videos from his European tour last month.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yup, and unfortunately I understand why. Sending power from the car back to your home, and potentially the grid, can open up a nightmare of liability exposure. Some sort of legislation would have to be in place protecting the vehicle manufacturer.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think it could technically be done with an external inverter that would disconnect from the grid in the event of a power outage just like the sma sunny island does now. I think there is a direct connection from the charge port to the battery for the superchargers, those same pins could be used to feed the battery side of the inverter. Having it coupled with the charge controller would be awesome too, then you could charge your car with straight DC at whatever the max system size was that the system was installed to handle. It would be awesome to recharge at 38kw for a standard 200a service feed and have your house on the emergency backup side for when you car is hooked up at home.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sure, the technology is relatively easy, but I can see how at this point Tesla wouldn't even want a hint of risk of the car causing issues in a house.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    dang. should've got some CSIQ.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The obvious play was to buy some JKS yesterday.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    I bought some yesterday at $31.40, and it was not looking so good, today it looks like a much better decision.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Bought JKS Sep14 $35 calls yesterday, as oppsosed to adding JKS stock. Looks good, up 30% so far today. Also been wanting to get in JASO eyfor a while now (no stock yet) and decided to get LEAPs yesterday, Jan15 $15 calls, low volume on those so not obvious what they would sell for but stock is up 7% right now. Any pullback in solar is a buying opportunity.

    Oh yeah CSIQ Jan15 $30 calls will be rolled up on next pullback I think.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Its better to roll them up at the peak and not during a pullback.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I bought a bunch of Mar22 JKS calls before close yesterday - just seemed inevitable that the market would eventually reward them for the blow-out ER. Maybe JKS is the best bet for the multi-bagger this year as it used to trade with CSIQ but has been left behind and has a market cap 2.5x less than CSIQ. Probably should be closer in value.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Really? If I keep the same $-ammount invested and roll to further OTM calls I'd think the one's I roll to will drop more in price (on a pullback), relatively speaking, than the ITM one's I'm holding, thereby increasing my exposure if I roll on a dip rather than a peak?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Closer in share price yes, but not close in market cap. CSIQ is still worth a lot more than JKS.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree but 2.5x more? How much difference do you think is realistic?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    kenliles just posted a tutorial on doing this in the advanced options trading thread.

    What you say is correct (maybe), but the further out options have lower delta. Also it is about rolling to get the most bang for your buck. If you roll now the $30s into 40$ you might get 2 $40s for every $30. But if the stock goes up another 20%, you might get 2.5 $40s for every $30. Numbers are completely made up and not even wild guesses, but I think you get the point.

    kenliles - correct me if I am wrong, because I never really use this strategy. I only roll up my short calls, and those I always do on a pullback, so the long calls have to be the opposite to make sense.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I guess it also depends on if the "rolling up" happens mostly with regard to strike or expiration (usually it's a combination of both).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    yeah (as sleepy noted) you'll do better rolling at local peaks (we're talking LEAPS or longer term options here of course). For the same $s you're more highly leveraged and the advantage is the distance your strike is now from the current price (further away). If the underlying price goes down (as expected when rolling at a local peak), the Delta tracking of the higher strike will accelerate lower (reducing the loss) MORE than it would with the lower strike. On balance that's a better time, given all else equal. That's especially true if rolling up at the same expiration; if rolling up and out, it's less so, but still better than a trough time. The other point I'll make is this is usually a good time to hedge that roll and maintain your Delta tracking on the stock, by precipitating some cash. If you roll out, then you should be able to go up in strike enough to minimally drop your Delta while taking some cash (acceptable because your Delta will easily recover that). That way the cash can be ready for an unexpectedly sever downturn from the current peak, providing great use of the cash to average down and build the Delta.

    The basic technique is to maintain a Delta range as if you own the stock at that level, precipitating cash at the high end of the range to use if the underlying drives you under the low end. Unless there's some mitigating circumstance like a pending ER or similar (sometimes extreme IVs will mitigate this timing)- better to roll up(and up/out) at local peaks rather than troughs.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks, makes a lot of sense. I also read through you post in the Advaced options thread and I think I get your points. Using LEAPs as a form of leveraged stock replacement is quite new to me but I think I will try this strategy with some of the solars where I felt I didn't get in with common stock "early enough". Your point about maintaining exposure roughly the same but with every roll taking some off the table (cash) and keep that for "a rainy day" or as you say "severe downturn" is also wise, since so far all of these have turned out to be buying opportunities in retrospect.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Johan. I followed this strategy with TSLA on Monday morning. While the stock is up 5+% my 4 LEAPS (2 Jan 15 and 2 Jan 16) are up 20%. I may also do this with SCTY and/or CSIQ
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I would like to hear your strategies for when this particular set up fails- how do you recover. It seems like this strategy fails if the momentum of the stock doesn't remain- if it doesn't continue to accelerate.
    -If the stock drops like crazy, you've done well because you've banked money and your current options expire worthless but you can buy more options for the future. So it's a win.
    -If the stock continues to rise at the same rate or faster, you've got the same or better delta as it rises. So it's a win.

    -If the stock slows slightly in growth or plateaus for a while, you're going to lose via theta. I guess you probably roll before theta loss becomes serious... but let's say that the stock doesn't move much after you've rolled up, and it looks like it's plateaud. What is your move then? Do you let the options expire?

    edit, maybe i've missed the answer to this, but i've looked through advanced options too and it looks like this discussion is now seeping into all the threads.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You may want to go over to advanced options strategy thread where Kenlilies has posted the strategy he employs in more detail. I am new to it but it works for high growth stocks. So, TSLA and the solars may be good choices. You are correct that if you have a slow growing, stagnant or dropping period you are gambling that the strike date being so far out allows you to recover.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That's about right. On average, assuming the stock is indeed the growth stock you bet on, you're return (for lower risk due to less capital outlay) will exceed 2:1 (I was hitting more like 4:1 during some years with APPL and of course TSLAs big year yielded better than that)-
    Keep in mind when SCTY drops 5% those 20% drops seem scary. It's important to stay disciplined, long in view, and not to over leverage- this is a stock replacement (rather than a trade investment) -
    That's easy to do if you simply correlate the net Delta to your desired stock position (it's tempting to over leverage).
    That said, I use this approach successfully currently with TSLA, SCTY, SPWR, CSIQ (and a little JASO, JKS)- The solars are particularly wild in swing (reminds me of the earlier TSLA days and APPL way back), so try not to despair when days don't look like today. Assuming they grow as expected, the up days vastly out number the down---
    Stay Frosty! :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The rolling LEAP strategy and the solars seem like a great match at this time in history.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    @mershaw2001
    You're instincts are well placed. The candidate stock is one that you determine has years of high growth ahead of it. Those that are making fundamental changes to the marketplace. Apple was great example because it's now in hind-sight. But that growth for Apple has now mitigated, so this approach is less effective. Currently I carry AAPL stock instead (and some small simple LEAPS positions) for that reason. These candidate companies in fact must grow fast and for years, because it takes that long to form the disruption. Once they start the disruptive lead, though and the management proves to be up to it, that growth is a relative lock for several years. Judgement does come in later when that will slow and you back out of this method to a more traditional stock hold, but that type of growth change happens over time.

    So in answer- it would fail if the underlying doesn't grow or grows slowly. It also doesn't work well for fast, but short growth. those that have a single play and will fall off rapidly. I believe today's candidates are Tesla and the Solars who have clearly won the survival battle. I did not use this for early Solars for example as they were moving in and out of survival mode. Remember by maintaining the discipline of keeping the Delta at your stock level and knowing long term (years in view), you do need to be beyond the point that complete collapse is not an inherent risk, coupled with the industry disruption leadership role. In fact, they will grow (via the new market created) or merge or die suddenly(in which case the downside is the same as losing the stock position you were going to hold anyway).

    In addition, to address some of your last question; I will balance the position with a holding of underlying stock. The proportion of that is relative to the company's position. By example currently my TSLA stock position is very low in comparison to the LEAPS because I'm confident they have reached a critical scale with any downturn correctable. Less so with some of the Solars- I keep a higher proportion of stock that allowed me to convert it to LEAPS on a major downturn, then return it to stock on major upswings. This provides a dampening mechanism for those companies on the verge of reaching a critical position in the growth and industry.

    In summary, for the company you determine is to grow strongly with disruption for several years (TSLA out past GENIII for my current mindset), my experience using this method provides significantly greater return than equivalent stock hold(by Delta, not $s), with less capital risked. The key as you've rightly noted is correct determination of the company in this position. My suggestion is to hold stock and try this with small additional position for a while to become familiar with it's dynamic and build into it - took me years to get to that point myself.

    edit- these posts might fit better over in Advanced Options thread with the others- mods feel free if you agree
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Any particular reason why the solar herd had a big jump today? Certain stocks, like JKS, had specific reasons, but it was up mostly across the board.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Everything i watch was up as a rebound from yesterday, solar tends to trade as a pack if one of them does really well you'll see sympathy from the others and vice versa. That's what I figured anyway. Possibly also some people realizing energy independence is a good thing in light of recent events.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This, and it is ER seasons for all he big Chinese ones. TSL, JKS and CSIQ all in a row.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    CSIQ dropping hard on ER. Haven't heard/read it yet as I have to run and have been in meetings, would love a recap by someone.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Ok, couldn't resist. Looked it up from the first source I found: http://247wallst.com/technology-3/2014/03/05/canadian-solar-earnings-falter-outlook-also-soft/

    This looks like the EPS came in about in line and the full year beat. The guidance revenue is soft and that is causing the selloff? Then again they mention that it's mostly shipping and new year and will be recognized in Q2. Sounds like a buying opportunity or does someone disagree?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    check out chief sleeping head and others on TCI, they are discussing heavily.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What's TCI?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    ok, i have become a believer. my home is 10K sq ft, all propane house (dryer, stove, heat, hot water). looking to down size and just saw a 8000K, all electric house with 6kw solar system, solar hot water system, special insulation, special heating units ( all electric). electric per month costs 7.43 dollars (the connection charge only). my current home even with LED and gas appliances runs an electric bill of 500 per month. i have seen the future in homes
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It seems like a big move down on high volume, I'm tempted to see if it follows through tomorrow w/ another drop before adding to my position. What do you think? I have a pretty small position in CSIQ at the moment, and wouldn't mind increasing my exposure to the stock. I cut down my position in half sometime last week when it went above $43.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I reduced my leaps in half a week or two ago when it was nicely up. Then I earned ****loads on TSLA with the MS upgrade and now as my portfolio is bigger in total I'm reallocating some to solar so it's a nice buying opportunity. Keep adding contract by contract as it drops :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I honestly wouldn't mind a 15% drop in TSLA right now. My exposure to TSLA became very small once we crossed $250. I want to buy more but I just can't justify the purchase right now, espeically with taxes being due so soon.

    Okay just bought some CSIQ Jan '15 $35s.. Couldn't resist w/ CSIQ being at $37!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Glad I let my CSIQ go last week around $40. Initially it hurt to see it go to 43+ but now I can buy back at a discount, though i'm not sure i'm going to at the moment. Plan was/is to always buy back in.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This CSIQ drop is a gift in my opinion -- revenues weren't cancelled they were just delayed due to harsher than expected winter causing construction delays. New analyst coverage coming out from JP Morgan on CSIQ sometime soon as well.

    Just added some medium-term calls to my CSIQ LEAPS and stock holdings.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agree that this drop in CSIQ today was exaggerated and unwarranted. I still have one Jan15$30 call that I bought a few weeks back, all other calls both LEAPs and shorter term were sold in the last two weeks gradually, for nice profits. Those profits went back in today partly in new LEAPS (Ja15$50) and also a bunch of pretty speculative Mar$42 calls (timed the bottom pretty well with those). The next 14 days will be exciting with CSIQ and as far as I'm concerned nothing has changed in the long run.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I offloaded some shares @ $44 last week and bought them back + 50% more at high $39's today. My ACB is still only like $25. I'm all about the dollar cost averaging.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think that both you guys are exactly correct. I also went on a March OTM call option buying spree today with CSIQ at $37-$39. I am still worried that the market can act irrationally in the short run, but that would just become a great buying opportunity IMO. They gave guidance for 2014, so there is no more guessing involved. Almost $3b in revenue and $4-$5 EPS seems very reasonable if they merely meet expectations.

    I hope that it goes up tomorrow so I can cash out my March calls, but if it keeps going down then I am ready to buy more.

    Nothing fundamentally has changed, in the last three quarters of 2014 CSIQ will have to average $800m in revenue to meet guidance. Sounds like the stock is going to go crazy by the end of this year. When it will start, I don't know, and that is why it is better to get in early and stay patient. I am not worried one bit about CSIQ.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes no problem in keeping in the refrigerator running. I think my refrigerator only uses about 800 watts however.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks, Sleepy. I confess I "cheated" today by checking out your thread over on TCI to get the scoop! But yeah, this was just an obvious overreaction on revenue delays due to seasonality that is to be expected. This year feels like a slow-building but inevitable march towards broader market understanding of the cash machine these solar companies are becoming, with CSIQ leading the pack. To be honest, the revenue delay will probably mean a huge revenue beat next quarter when they report, which we here would expect but the market might not. Might be a nice pop when it happens. Here's hoping!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The low of the day was 36.95. Getting a OTM $37 by the hair your chin there :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The revenue beat may not occur till Q2 or beyond. The analysts may understand this or choose not to.... I will be placing my bets (I mean options) accordingly.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, I was buying options so I don't know exactly when they got struck. But I started placing wholesale orders once the stock started falling below $39. I made most of my purchases one or two strike prices away from the daily low. They are up 30% already, but that can disappear if the stock opens weak tomorrow.

    I am really hoping for the analysts to step up and do their job and tell the CSIQ story. It is a great company and an undervalued stock. The problem is that there are not a lot of analysts following CSIQ. The big one now is JP Morgan who picked up coverage on Feb 24 with a buy and $50 PT calling CSIQ "best of breed". I hope that he comes out tomorrow and raises his PT to $55, now that there is confirmation of the great year that lies ahead.

    The Q1 slow down due to weather has absolutely no fundamental impact on the company. It is not like they were counting on that cash flow, because they just raised $250m+ so they have plenty of working capital.

    It is going to be a very strong year for CSIQ.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yessss there is still time for me to get in!!! Waiting for TSLA holdings to appreciate a bit more and get in some CSIQ :D
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What's driving JASO parabolic?

    I bought shares 2 days ago with near zero research on Sleepy's writeups here... 2 days in and it looks like good timing.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Appears it's something going on with every China solar. JASO's actually under performing most of it's friends today (YGE, SOL, TSL, CSUN).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Had to take profits on my Mar 21 CSIQ calls after they were up >150% from yesterday. Could be a mistake, but I'll be looking to get back in on any weakness.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm so glad my SOL and JASO calls are finally moving. :smile: Bought them in December ITM. They've been doing poorly since and I prepared myself for a loss as they are approaching expiration soon. I have SOL $4.50 Apr 19 and JASO $10 Mar 22 calls.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think what is happening is that some of the underperformers of 2013 that had bad balance sheets last year are seeing their balance sheets improve with strong 2014 outlooks as earnings season in full swing ATM and hence those solars are rallying more than the traditional leaders (CSIQ, JKS, etc). 2014 could very well be better for these than 2013.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I saw this too. Ultimately, I think this is a healthy thing for the Chinese economy as it demonstrates that there is no guaranteed "bailout" backstopping corporate debt.

    As of this writing, for the Chinese solars I track, CSIQ is down slightly but JASO and SOL are significantly up. Interesting.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Roth Capital Starts JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (JASO) at Buy $15 PT:

    http://www.streetinsider.com/New+Coverage/Roth+Capital+Starts+JA+Solar+Holdings+Co.%2C+Ltd.+%28JASO%29+at+Buy/9258785.html

    This is new coverage picked up by Roth today. There are virtually no analysts following JASO; maybe 1 or 2 that I haven't heard from in months.

    That is a good thing you guys have sleepyhead to keep you updated :redface:

    Now that cat is slowly coming out of the bag, lets hope for a big ER 3/17 and great guidance going forward.

    Like I said, sooner or later Wall St. figures these things out and that is why I like to get in early and be patient. I was buying at $8 - $10, and now Wall St. can start their own bidding process at $11.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The JASO Jan15 $15 LEAPs I bought last year are kicking ass this morning. You are awesome, Sleepy. :)

    Edit: Looking at the intraday charts so far today, I see some interesting trends:

    JASO and SOL are moving in lock-step.

    CSIQ, SPWR and ... TSLA are tracking extremely closely.

    Wonder what explains this, or if I'm reading too much into intraday movments after only an hour...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Anybody here with access to the Roth Capital report on JASO? Please pm me if you have it.

    I would like to take a look at it to see what they are using for estimates. It is very possible that they are using lowball figures and will have to update numbers post Q4 ER and up their PT. It is good to know these things in advance.

    On the other hand if I think that their numbers are too optimistic, then it might create a good selling opportunity. I doubt this is the case though, because I have a much higher PT for JASO (closer to $30 by the end of the year in a good economy and continuation of bull market).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm guessing the report must have something favorable since JASO is up significantly and all it's brethren are down or flat today. It's been really rare when JASO deviates that far from the herd.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Obviously its positive if you put a PT that is 42% above yesterday's closing price.

    I wanted access to the report, so that I can see what modeling assumptions he used for his 2014 and 2015 estimates. I suspect that his numbers are very conservative, and that there could be room for future adjustments that will lead to higher PT's.

    But I don't know that for sure, so I would love to see the report.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This isn't the report but it contains extracted details: http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Roth+Starts+JA+Solar+%28JASO%29+at+Buy%3B+Undervalued+Name+has+Robust+Balance+Sheet,+Strong+Pipeline/9259609.html
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    After playing the bounce in CSIQ (buy at 37.5, sell at 41.09) I went on a csiq buying spree today. Shares in the mid 36 range, then april 34 strike options when the stock hit 36.00, and then more shares at 35.80. It dropped to 35.3, but seems to be going up.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was patiently waiting for this dip too. Added to CSIQ stock position. Let's see where things go in the next couple of days.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Everyone has been talking about PLUG. Are any of you playing this? It seems super risky to me, fuel cell tech isn't exactly fully sustainable and the CEO is too vague when he says we'll make money this year...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Kind of wish I had taken a small gamble and bought some when it was <$3 recently, but I'm not planning to take a position either way in PLUG now. Maybe some small $ amount into puts if you think it will go down sharply.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I bought some Jan15 $7 LEAPS last week - up 117% already (should have bought shorter-term). It is small position and will probably sell half to run risk-free through ER. It looks like a blow-off top but I think it could run until just before or after ER, or maybe it is THE new technology and things are just starting. I bought in after doing a little research and seeing the huge momentum and positive sentiment. I also bought some BLDP calls for the same reason on Friday.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What a crap day for solar. For all speculative biotech or tech for that matter. I am just hoping this doesn't portent a deeper decline in the next day or two.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Glad I half of my PLUG and BLDP calls at open today to run the rest of them risk free. Yikes, PLUG down 40% and BLDP down 23% - was a blow-off top after all.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SCTY partnership with Best Buy is genius. GREAT move by Best Buy in order to stay relevant in the brick and mortar electronic space. Now when people go and buy their washer/dryer/fridge, they'll be able to buy solar panels and storage.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    They are also inside every Home Depot around here.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Guys, SCTY is a beast.

    On other news: what do you all think about CSIQ? I've been buying a little but I'm trying to understand if we have some positive catalysts coming up that could initiate the comeback.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think it is a case of when not if. A couple interesting things about their Q4, year end and 2014 forecast:

    1. Pipeline - They identified the 2014 pipeline by source, size and potential timing. If you look at Q1 you have:

    - 13.9 MW from William Rutley in Canada (supposed to be Q4) and 11.9 KW from Little Creek. Either or both may be delayed to Q2, but from previous sales (Demorestville, Taylor Kidd) - these have the potential for $60-100 million CD in revenue at 20-25% margin. If these sell, they will announce it at the end of Q1 or in early April.
    - 12.7 MW from the US (Roxboro at 6.2 MW and CSI P1 at 6.5)
    - 40 MW from W. China and Jiangsu Province that are already connected to the grid with a potential RMB 1.0 -1.2/kWh FIT (see recent note on Yingli and analyst upgrade for comparison).

    My guestimate puts these at about 60-80 cents/share, with Q2 seeing a much larger ramp up to potentially a $2.0/share EPS for the quarter (and possible movement of payment from Q1 because of weather) and additional revenue from insurance on the factory fire. Q2 is the sweet spot, and Japan revenue (mostly in 2015, but some in 2014 is a wildcard) but at what point does the stock start ramping up.

    2. New Analysts - you now have 5-6 analysts covering CSIQ, including J.P. Morgan and Goldman - up from 2 less than a year ago. This should help institutions (currently at 14.9% ownership) become more comfortable in owning the stock.

    3. Estimates - those existing and new analysts have increased their current year average estimates from $2.32/share 60 days ago to $3.78/share for 2014 today...or over 50% increase in current year estimates, while the stock has dropped 20% since earnings. A forward P/E of 7.2???? Something has to give.

    4. Shorts - I wouldn't be surprised if the short interest has gone up significantly after the Q1 miss.

    I'm accumulating LEAPS and shares and will play a short-term option strategy for Q2....those are my thoughts.

    :wink:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I decided to cash out half my holdings in CSIQ, luckily at 37+ and turned around and bought 2015 AND 2016 LEAPS which are all 'red' right now (not so lucky)

    ****I was looking at short interest for JASO with the ER coming up. Short interest has DOUBLED from end of January to Feb 28th (last reported date) and now stands at 8 million shares.......
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ouchies on the Chinese solars today, eh? Double whammy of Chinese news and Ukraine instability seem to be pressing down hard. I'm considering adding to long positions, but wondering what might transpire short-term for CSIQ and others. Anyone make any moves today?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I grabbed two march lottery tickets for jaso. $12 and $13 strikes for .15 and .10 respectively.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    May the force be with you on those! My $15 leaps would thank you. :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If the force is with me, they will end up being leaps ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The ER is on Monday apparently (first time I've seen it listed in my Google Finance calendar), so who knows. I've got June $9 calls I bought for $2 back in January. Hopefully they'll do something good. I think the last articles I found said they were capacity constrained and it wasn't going to be until in the 2nd quarter when new production capacity came online in South Africa (reading their announcement in JASO's investor section). Consequently, I'm not sure I'm expecting any big revenue surprise for Q1.

    Sleepy, of course, probably knows 10x the detail :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have both April $11 and Jan 2015 $15s. Looks like we've been working off the same crib sheet. Also have a bunch of shares. Regardless of the market headwinds, I expect JASO to execute better than HSOL, which did well...but JASO is more mature and has greater upside. Monday should be fun, more fun if this dip gets bought like all the others for the last 18 months. Remember, the fear in January was emerging markets and Turkey.....Turkey? Really? The most hated rally in the history of the market will end sometime, but this isn't 2000-2002 or 2008.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hopefully it is a "sell the rumor, buy the news" (on Monday) type of deal.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hope you are correct as I have a sizeable JASO position. I am worried though that geopolitical situation may get more worrisome and cloud any good news from JASO.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Great day for JASO, but it's done this a few times in the last month alone. Spiking near 11 and then sagging back down near 10. Each time seems to spike slightly higher and trough slightly shallower.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Is JASO earning announcement on Monday before the open or after the close?

    I'm considering closing half of my position before earnings, just in case...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Before! So you have 15 minutes.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    HUUUUUUGE volume spike in JASO right now. Got my $12 weeklies earlier this morning on the short dip and I have a hunch it's going to be a good JASO Tuesday, as long as Putin doesn't start annexing things violently.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks! Order just filled :) Closed 1/3 of my position to lock in some gain. Now let the remaining 2/3 run on Monday!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You and I both. But closed only 25%. Still hold some April Jaso $11 calls. We could use a good solar Monday. Fingers crossed!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No way was I closing anything jaso related. I want full exposure to this ER. If it goes bad, well the good news is I'll have two tax reducing days in a row. I'm expecting jaso to recover all I lost on tsla weeklies today. My intrinsic value only spreadsheet says I need 12.32 to break even.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    For my portfolio to go back to where it was 10 days ago I think JASO needs to hit at least $25:biggrin:.....................But I will gladly take 12.32
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I did not take any profits either. I was actually increasing my (already super high) JASO exposure every day this week. I used my J16 TSLA LEAPS as my ATM by selling some calls against them to raise cash.

    I am very optimistic on JASO's long term prospects, but don't know what will happen on Monday. I think that they will have a great ER and give really good guidance for 2014.

    The only thing that worries me is that short interest (which was already high to begin with) doubled over the past 4 weeks. I am wondering if someone knows something; there is still a remote possibility that JASO is responsible for the Wacker Euro115m windfall from backing out of a supply agreement. Normally, I wouldn't think this but JASO is a customer of Wacker and the short interest has grown alarmingly quickly.

    Even if they do take an impairment, the market might shrug it off if ER is really great, or it will create a huge buying opportunity if the stock goes down and everything else in the ER is good/great. In SOL's case, that $200m impairment really hurt them badly and their balance sheet has deteriorated in a hurry. JASO could easily absorb such an impairment without any problems. It would be a drag on them but not that big and will be easily forgotten a couple of months from now.

    Good luck everyone. No matter what happens on Monday, I still like JASO a lot over the long term; unless of course there is some huge negative surprise that will have a lasting impact on the fundamentals of the company (something a lot more significant than a potential impairment).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If the geopolitics (referendum) involving Ukraine, Crimea and Russia works out in a positive way and JASO has even a decent ER/guidance it will rock Monday. If it does not, I think we will have a very muted JASO response short term. I have a crap load (very scientific measure) of JASO even with selling off 25% at close today that includes stock, March/April calls and LEAPS so I am hoping for good news. Good luck all.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yep, this rise in short has me a bit paranoid. I got bit hard on SOL's hidden stuff and it'd suck to have that happen twice in a row. Everything JASO has published looks like they're on solid footing going into the rest of 2014 though.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    JASO has always been a long term play for me. You never know when the day comes that JASO turns the corner.

    It might be Monday or it may be in a few months. I thought JASO was due 3 months ago and it is taking longer than expected.

    You never know when the time will come, but it eventually comes for undervalued companies - sooner or later.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good luck to all who invested in JASO. Hopefully the ER/guidance will be good and start an upward tread for the solars which seem to live and die together.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Fingers crossed, I am well invested, hoping for the best.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Great call again. Solar continues its move. Lots of room to go, and that room expands even more if there are viable storage systems available for all that increasing capacity making solar a 24-hour power solution in the future. Hmmm...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    We can get really sappy here. Thanks Sleepy!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nice sympathetic rise in other solars this AM, too, presumably thanks to JASO.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Somebody dumped 336k shares of JASO right at the open, but buying has been steady since then.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I recall some analyst started following JASO recently. Wonder how long before they upgrade their price target?

    Edit: I was going to ask if this is a case where the stock never retraces to "fill the gap", but it looks like it's trying really hard to do it right now. Already lost over 1/2 the opening gain.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Back from lunch and JASO looks to end the day with a whimper. Not even outperforming some of it's siblings for the day (like JKS).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    you mean selling has been steady : )
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That was Sleepy, right? Another cool $4 million in his pocket.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Haha, I did not dump any JASO shares at all today. I rolled out some of my March call options, but overall did not sell JASO.

    I actually just bought back in right now on this weakness at the end of the day.

    Tomorrow should be an exciting day.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Interesting, why do you think tomorrow will reverse the mostly downwards trend today? Expecting any analyst opinions/PT upgrades tomorrow?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That is what I am betting on. I think that the company is worth a lot more than $12, especially after this great ER and guidance they just gave.

    I would like to hear what the analysts have to say, and I am sure that most of it will be positive
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    JASO's price action the past 2 days has been fishy. On Friday it seems like the ER results were leaked as the stock spiked a lot while the rest of the chinese solars were down. Then today with great earnings there is a sell-off during the day and closing almost where it was on Monday. Could be normal profit-taking. Or could be another leak, maybe an offering being planned?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I confess that I was surprised at the HUGE volume spike near the Friday close, and then when I saw a single order to sell 336,000 shares at opening bell this morning, I did raise an eyebrow.

    Hopefully JASO continues a healthy upward trend.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The solar stocks move in mysterious ways, but this time there was a perfect explanation for this:

    On Friday Gordon Johnson from Axiom Capital went from a sell rating on JASO and a $1.70 PT to a buy rating and a $16 PT. This guy is one of the biggest bears on solar, so this was the reason for the JASO strength on Friday.

    I wouldn't worry about the 336k shares, it is just smart money taking profit at the top. I think there were many 1-minute intervals where hundreds of thousand of shares were bought which is a sign of accumulation.

    Solar stocks are very easily manipulated, even on high volume days like today because the market cap is so low. I think that max pain is at $11, so the market makers have an incentive to push the stock down. This also allows them to accumulate more shares on the cheap for their clients.

    I don't recommend trying to time solar stocks based on events. They are strictly buy and hold investments for most people. The overall trend is up and as long as the economic conditions don't deteriorate, there is plenty of upside in solar stocks.

    I like JASO even more after this ER and I am not letting go. This stock will reach $20 by the end of the year. I don't let the market manipulators knock me off track on my solar investments.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks, sleepy. Didn't know about that upgrade.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm considering moving 75% of my holdings to jaso itm leaps and common. The fact that it hasn't moved up at all from this ER just shows that people don't get it.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It is an interesting time for solar, to be sure. Feels like growing realization that the non-combustion future is coming faster than expected by necessity, but the market still has not priced that in yet.

    Incidentally, anyone have an SCTY earnings play today?
    �
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