Chủ Nhật, 30 tháng 10, 2016

Alternative Energy Investor Discussions part 9

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Geesh, solars are doing great. Only an hour into trading but things are looking good. Sleepy, I should have got some SOL in my non retirement account. All I have is shares in my Roth. Good call again on your part.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    "The company said that the upgrades enabled production costs to decline to US$18/kg, compared to the US$24/kg it was achieving in the third quarter of 2012, before its plants were shut down. ReneSola's production costs had been over US$30/kg in the first half of 2012."

    Remember they closed Down their Polysilicon Production in 2012, so they were buying Polysilicon in Q1 and Q2. Maybe from REC? They could produce at 15$ or something before the penalty tax came this summer.
    Which means their cost might have increased even tho got their own prices Down.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ok, I just looked over Renesola's (SOL) ER CC transcript and it says that they are only producing 20 metric tons per day or about 5000 MT per year. The article said that their plant has annual capacity of 10,000 MT.

    They said that costs are running above $20 right now after re-opening the plant (not $25 like I stated above, that was a different number), and that they will evaluate next month or so and possible give out better guidance for the future. They said that costs are running high right now, so it sounded like they would expect some cost reduction. They said that Poly prices will reach $25 next year, because of the increased demand.

    They also said that for SOL the "ASP will definitely go up to $0.70 per watt" next year. It is currently at $0.63 in Q2, so that is more than a 10% increase and all of that will go into gross margin, i.e. gross margin of 17% instead of 7% if costs stay the same.

    If poly prices do go up and Renesola can make their own cheaply then this will be a huge winner. Remember that this is still a Chinese company and I don't know much about their business culture. Do they tend to over exaggerate things? Stretch the truth? or are they usually too conservative? I have no idea. They also use a translator so maybe some things got lost in translation?

    If you can trust management then this will turn out to be a great buy. A lot of people have gotten badly burned by Chinese stocks in the past, so be careful.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Any reason why Scty is not participating in the solar rally today? Btw, spwr looking good, although I wish the volume was higher. Sleepy, what strikes and expirations did you recently buy on spwr? Thanks.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I bought a bunch. I started buying the J15's then March 14's and most recently the Dec13s. I got a whole assortment of options from $20 up to $30. I have been buying a lot since it went down to $21 and have been buying on the way up with every little pullback. I just buy something that is pretty much ATM and then hedge once I can get risk-free delayed construct bull call spread. Most recent purchase was Dec $24 and I will hedge it once SPWR goes up another $1 or so from here.

    Here is a very interesting article on solar:

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2013/09/25/welcome-to-the-residential-solar-revolution/?partner=yahootix

    The Bernstein analyst says that solar installations will be at 300 GW/year by 2020! That compares to 31 GW last year. If this is true then all of these solar companies will have to start expanding capacity like there is no tomorrow and you might see all of these single digit stocks trading in the hundreds by 2020. I don't know where he got 300 GW from but I can see it happening (not saying that it will, only that I can see it as a possible outcome), because solar is the obvious solution.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks for the article sleepy! Will look at spwr and/or csiq when I have cash avail. Still waiting patiently to hedge my tsla march calls.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Great call sleepy. Was tempted to dip my feet into solar yesterday when I saw SOL was down but TSLA has been taking up most of my time and money. Hoping to get into SOL, CISQ, and SPWR sometime soon. The IV for SOL and CSIQ make TSLA look cheap! :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Almost all trades I've followed Sleepy in have gone seriously green all the time ;) It's gotten to the point that if I feel like I want to buy something today I just look at what Sleepy is talking about at the time, buy it and then later research what I got ;) The stakes are always small and I know that until I research them they are high risk ones, but so far so good ;)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Alright I bought some call options on STRI. I read over there latest earning conference call and it sounds like they have a bunch of new customers (Chinese) and they are in the process of working out all of the bugs in mass production. They say that the failure rate is at 0.25% or 1 in 400, so they need to get that resolved. No timetable on resolution, but if they can get it done then the company should get some good business and the stock should start taking off. If they do not resolve these issues then the stock will plummet and the company may eventually go bankrupt.

    I just bought these calls as a lottery ticket. The furthest out calls they had were March, so that might not be enough time for this company to start making money. It is complete gambling and purely speculative. I only bought it so that Norse will have someone to drink a virtual beer with once this stock explodes.

    I still don't know what their product is for, but lets hope it works properly.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What did you buy? I put an order out for 10 March 2.5 calls inside the bracket, but before my trading app crashed it hadn't completed. Also, for the first time I got a warning that max limit was 5 calls which kind of was puzzling for me. Going to try to get in again to see if the order completed.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I put in a limit order for 20 March $2.50 calls at $0.40 and got executed at $0.39. The bid ask is 0.35/0.40 and the bid/ask volume is 11/5. That is why you got that message.

    I first put in an order for 20 "all or none" and it didn't get executed, so I change to simple limit order and all 20 got executed immediately (and cheaper than I was willing to pay).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Lucky bastard, got my 5 traded finally at $0.40 even though I was waiting for a long while for $0.35 ;) Anyway so we both thought out the same trade (pretty much the only reasonable one) except for the magnitude. I thought on starting very small until I get a chance to read a bit more about it and the network here sucks utterly so didn't want to go in more.

    - - - Updated - - -

    However I did complement my SOL stocks holding with two $5 April '14 calls to further extend the SOL coverage.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hell you guys got in cheaper than me :D Anyway a good day for alt energy, lets not hope we get more secondary offerings!

    Five Stocks Trading Below Cash That Hedge Funds Love - Forbes

    As said earlier. They have the same amout of cash as their market cap. And their 85% inst. Owned.

    Look at this one. Some truth, but theyre using Q1 GM for TSL and YGE: http://www.dailyfinance.com/2013/09/25/follow-the-shorts-invest-in-solar/

    And another one from the G20 Meeting: http://cleantechnica.com/2013/09/25/g20-leaders-agree-phase-inefficient-fossil-fuel-subsidies/?

    Im sorry for all the post, but since I have some time off and the possibility to lose my job Im gonna do alot of Research in the times Ahead.
    If you dont want it, just ignore me.

    Btw I found out how to turn off my auto-correct! :D
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks for sharing your research. Anything you contribute is appreciated. Hope the job situation works out for you!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Okey, JAN16 calls are between 6.30 and 7.20 now.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Norse - I hope things work out well on the job front and your research is greatly appreciated so keep it coming.

    Those CSIQ LEAPS are way too expensive, if you are going to buy them I would do it as stock replacement and simply buy and hold. If you are doing delayed construct BCS's then make sure that you set them up for risk free or better yet negative risk.

    Overall CSIQ is way undervalued. If the economy expands (I think it will since jobless claims are getting better every week) and solar does well (its seems like a solar revolution is just beginning) then CSIQ will at least triple within 12 -18 months. Recession is the only real risk I see for this company; of course there are always unforeseen risks.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree, However the last JAN16, not JAN15, 15$Call was sold at 6.40, I guess thats way better then a 5$ JAN15 call. I think I could live with that call, tho I hope there will be higher calls coming soon.
    Loading up with stocks now, and CSIQ will be the second biggest in my portofolio after TSLA.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I sold my JKS I bought a couple of days ago; decided to book an easy 20% profit and bought some more CSIQ. Now my 401k is more than 80% CSIQ :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was just going to thank you for the JKS advice as I got in sub $17. You think CSIQ has more upside?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    CSIQ is only getting started, it might take a couple of quarters, but it is going up a lot if the economy expands.

    - - - Updated - - -

    In the short run CSIQ might correct, but that will only make it an even better buy.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Trina is having yet another Massive day, SPWR is holding strong, and SOL continues to run.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I sold my spwr at 26.1 and 1/5 of my scty at 34.80. I've still got a lot of scty, but I think I'll be sitting out of the next round.

    Ok screw that, I'm back in to SPWR, i don't like to be in and out so much but it looks like it just bounced twice off the 25.3 range, so I picked up my shares at 25.26.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Man solars crashed out pretty hard today.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    YGE and TSL raised PT from DB to 8$ and 18$!!

    http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Deutsche+Bank+Upgrades+Trina+Solar+(TSL),+Yingli+Green+Energy+(YGE)+to+Buy+on+Accelerating+China+Demand/8726599.html

    The report on climate change will probably boost solar in the long run: http://www.ipcc.ch/news_and_events/docs/ar5/press_release_ar5_wgi_en.pdf
    The report says that scientist are 95% certain that humans are the cause of global warming.

    The UK aims to cover 15 percent of its domestic electricity demand with renewables by 2020
    http://www.photon-international.com/news_archiv/details.aspx?cat=News_PI&sub=europe&pub=4&parent=7029

    Utah are also in: http://cleantechnica.com/2013/09/26/300-mw-solar-project-planned-utah/?

    India sets 10 GW solar target by 2017
    Read more: http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/india-sets-10-gw-solar-target-by-2017-_100012849/#ixzz2g65B1hib

    Now.. where do I put my money? :D
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Norse, good job with your research and it is greatly appreciated. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that solar is about to explode. Those who figured this out last year are the ones who have gotten rewarded the most. I figured this out last year, but have only bought stock and not options. It is not too late, because the solar revolution is just beginning.

    You want to put your money into CSIQ, because today it is the best Chinese solar company and it only has a $700m market cap while TSL has $1b and YGE the same. CSIQ is much better because they made all of the smart business decisions over the past two years; i.e. first mover to Japan, good US exposure, and a big downstream business, EPC, power plants, etc.

    There is a small probability that CSIQ announces next week 1,2, or 3 power plant sales that are on a cash basis and will greatly boost Q3 earnings. They have to announce this next week because Q3 is ending this Monday, so if they don't close the deal then all of the revenue will be pushed back to Q4. In this case though CSIQ would have a blowout Q4 and you will reap the benefits sooner or later. Buying stock is the best way to play CSIQ, because timing is a big unknown. The stock may double by the end of this year or it may stay stagnant until the spring. I would bet on the former, but it is to risky with these very expensive options. Stock will give you enough time to reap the benefits. Alternatively you can buy some Deep ITM LEAPS 2016 even as stock replacement to get some leverage. Deep OTM LEAPS are still too expensive.

    Since Q3 is ending on Monday it seems like there is a small probability that they will close the deal on any of the plant sales, so there is your risk with CSIQ. Then Q3 will be all about ASP's, margins, etc. which should be improving. The silver lining though is that the Q4 numbers will have to be revised to show $1 EPS or more. There is also the risk that something went wrong with the power plants and the sales won't happen this year and the stock could tank - unlikely since they sold a plant 3 months ago to same Trans Canada company and seems to be working fine.

    They have 18 power plants to sell next year and most are on cash basis, and some on accrual basis. All this means is that CSIQ will be extremely profitable for the entire year of 2014. Watch out if you see them signing new power plant deals for 2015.

    TSL, YGE, and JKS have been the hot solar stocks so I would not be buying these right now. If I had to choose, I would buy TSL out of the three. I think that you have to go with the "laggards" right now and buy CSIQ. Maybe some SOL too. JASO has kind of been a laggard, so it might be a great buy but I don't know anything about the company so I can't recommend it.

    TSL and YGE will probably hit the secondary market for another capital raise soon, so be careful buying these stocks now. CSIQ registered a $200m mixed shelf offering, and so far only raised $50 million. I hope they don't intend to continue raising money, because it could hit the stock hard again.

    On a final note: CSIQ is coming up against resistance again so the stock needs a good catalyst (hello: plant sales please?) to break through the $16.50 barrier on high volume to break out of its 2.5 year rounded bottom technical pattern. If this happens then the stock will cross $20 before you can hit confirm order (to buy) at your on-line brokerage account.

    Feel free to wait for the break out trade, because there is a lot of risk now that we are banging against resistance. If CSIQ doesn't get a catalyst, which is the most likely outcome, then the stock might start pulling back.

    That is why I bought a bunch of shares (80% of my 401k is in CSIQ), because I can wait until I am proven correct. And unless we hit a global recession (or US default) then I will be correct on CSIQ. It simply can't have such a low market cap; it is impossible for it to stay this low.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Im going with CSIQ aswell. Btw I do you know what happens with LEAPS if TSL is getting merged or taken over by Solarcity or something?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just a quick post in thanks to sleepyhead and the rest of you sharing your research and thought processes. As with the options threads, it is immensely helpful to those of us less well-versed in the market.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't know this for sure, but I think you kind of get prorated. So if SCTY bought TSL and you had TSL options it would depend on the buyout price. E.g. if you had TSL $10 strike price and SCTY bought TSL; let's say you receive 1 share of SCTY for every share of TSL. So if TSL is trading at $13 and SCTY at $39, then you will now get SCTY options with a $30 strike price.

    I am just guessing, I do not know how it works exactly. That is a good question to ask a professional options trader. I think you kind of get prorated like this but I am not sure.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I would doubt that SCTY would buy a panel manufacturing company. They currently buy from multiple tier 1 manufactures. The panels are like a commodity. It's like the batteries in the cars, a commodity. If SCTY were to become panel agnostic it would severely limit their flexibility and speed of service.

    The only time I sell a customer on a panel brand is when it's SunPower. Pricing and availability change on almost a weekly basis. If you are limiting yourself to one panel brand you will be limiting your flexibility to deliver the best product to fit your customers need in the shortest amount of time.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Next question is when will Trina take a pull back. It has been on fire since its last quarter earnings. I see it hard to believe it can continue this run.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Here is some very big news for SPWR (and solar in general) that came out yesterday morning:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-26/total-plans-biggest-solar-farm-in-chile-that-won-t-rely-on-aid.html?cmpid=yhoo

    Sunpower is building a 70MW plant in Chile for $200m that will:

    1. Be in part financed by its parent Total S.A.
    2. Be built without any aid, and without any power purchase agreement. It will basically sell power in the spot market.
    3. SPWR signed long term maintenance agreement on this plant.
    4. It will compete with conventional energy head to head.


    This proves that the economics already work out for solar power in Chile and that it is cheaper than conventional sources of energy.

    SPWR also expects 20% of revenues to come from Latin America by 2020 and it is currently less than 1%.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good news.

    Sleepy, what do you make of CSIQ being over 16 at the moment?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sleepyhead and Norse, thanks for the great research and insights. My moneys tied up in TSLA right now, but I convinced my fiancee to let me dabble with her IRA. I put 50% in CSIQ this morning and it's up about 6% from there already, I think she'll be happy when she finally wakes up :biggrin:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow, CSIQ is at $16.57. This is the breakout level that I was talking about ($16.50). It hasn't broken out yet, and it isn't on high volume so I don't know what to think about it. Most likely it will hit resistance here and start pulling back. If it does pullback it will only be short-lived and will create a good buying opportunity.

    As I type this, CSIQ is up above $16.60. Looks like volume is picking up above my buy point. if CSIQ ends the day above $16.50 on high volume, then we are seeing the break through I have been talking about and it is off to the races. If it closes below $16.40 then we will need a high volume break through next week.

    Once we past this resistance, I think that CSIQ will be in the mid 20s very, very shortly. Need some high volume follow through. This would be my entry point if I wasn't already all in :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    CSIQ. Sleepy, what do you think of some April $20 at their levels right now?
    Jan 15 $25s seem a bit hard to grab
    I know you talk about common stock but i dont have the cash level to buy any substantial amount of common.

    Still currently holding Jan14 $20s from a before the pull back (back to break even today)

    Side note, Trina just broke through $15

    Holly crap and SOL just broke out too.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I really don't know what to tell you. If you buy the April $20's for $2.5, then you need the stock to go to $25 just to double your money. That is a lot of risk, and you can nearly double your money by simply buying stock at $16.

    It all depends on your strategy, but if you do buy the April $20, then wait for CSIQ to go up and then hedge by selling the April $22 or $23 to create risk free bull call spread. That is the only way to play options with these stocks because IV is so high that you have to do spreads.

    I still recommend stock, even though I am guilty of buying options, but I have an extremely high risk tolerance and understand I can lose a lot of money this way.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Another option would be to buy deep ITM calls. This would be higher risk than common stock but much lower risk than deep OTM calls.

    For CSIQ, one could get the Apr14 $12 calls for $6. It would still need to $24 in April 2014 to double your $6 investment. But at least you have less risk of the options expiring worthless compared to if you bought Apr14 $20 calls. Nevertheless, the Apr14 $12 calls still could expire worthless if the stock went under $12 in April.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    After losing out big on CSIQ and SOL and whatnot around earnings, and then losing the taste for them because I had lost quite a lot already (thus I didn't get anything during the dip), I just got back into CSIQ with the jan '14s $14 at $4.10. I picked the $14s since they look most liquid, and in the money + time premium means at least I get to keep a little bit of my cash hopefully even if it corrects 10%. Probably just buying high selling low once again, but looks promising so far. Not planning to hold until expiration.

    Also holding onto a 50% loss on jan '14 SCTY $35 strike for the last month or so, probly going to end up selling those at a loss if we can get another up day or two.

    I still have a couple thousand TSLA shares in the 20s so this is all play money to me.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ok, I'm in with 20% of my avail cash into CSIQ Jan '15 17 at $5.70. Here goes nothing!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Heh, I made my CSIQ Jan '15 into a negative risk play (had bought the 15 call for 5 and sold 17 call for 5.30 today) and opened a jan '14 play with 14 strike at $4 hoping to make it a delayed construct spread over the next weeks if it were to continue the run up. The fact that it closed at $16.7 is very nice indicator that it may indeed go up now.

    SCTY indeed isn't cutting me slack, but I've lowered my buy in average now for the 35 strike Jan '15 call. If it goes down further I'll lower it more.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Do people around here expect an earnings beat for SCTY? I am holding calls I bought near the bottom, but with all of Solar up today and SCTY not following, I kind of am thinking of going elsewhere for my money.


    That said, I have no clue what to expect for earnings.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SCTY is not the same as csiq, tsl, yge, etc. the panel manufactures had big gains today, probably in part to the possibility that the trade war will be ended. SCTY is an integrator, leasing company. Totally different locations in the supply chain. SWPR is its own beast too because it is more vertically integrated.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Anyone know anything about CSUN? Only a 64m market cap. Went up 30% yesterday on high volume. Will try to do some research and possibly buy on monday.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
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    guest
    Tax credits back to them means they get to keep profits, i.e. their profit margin will improve. Could only mean a good thing for them as i see it.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Is now still a good time to get into CSIQ, SOL. Etc?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I would sit and wait for a day or two to see how the Government shut down goes down Monday night. If there is a shut down the stock market could take a huge hit, then that would the time to get in.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    borat99 - It is actually the perfect time to buy CSIQ. If you are in it for the long haul then you can probably buy just about any solar stock and you will do well. In the short run we may always see 10%-30% corrections, so you have to be ready for that. If you are nervous about the whole US government shutdown and debt ceiling debacle then feel free to wait a few days. Just don't come back next week asking if its too late to get into CSIQ at $20. :wink:


    Here is an article I wrote just yesterday evening on CSIQ. This will give you an answer to your question on investing in CSIQ:

    Technically Speaking, it is a Great Time to Buy CSIQ | Investnaire: Focused Investing to Millionaire

    It is a detailed post about CSIQ breaking out of its 2.5 year rounded bottom technical chart pattern. It looks to me like a perfect time to get into CSIQ, if there ever was one.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Great article, but don`t you think CSIQ could more then double in 2014?

    Btw JKS: JinkoSolar to Provide 20 MW to State Grid Corporation of China for the National Wind/PV/Energy Storage and Transmission Project.

    http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/jinkosolar-to-provide-20-mw-to-state-grid-corporation-of-china-for-the-national-windpvenergy-storage-and-transmission-project-225778281.html?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Honestly, I think that CSIQ will do better than double and I wrote that "I would be shocked if it doesn't double" meaning that it is my worst case scenario (assuming no global recession). I can see it closing 2014 anywhere between $40-$100.

    Here is some more good SPWR news:

    SPWR supplying panels for a Japanese Mega Project

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/sunpower-corporation-supply-shimizu-69-010000704.html

    and

    SPWR signs $100m financing deal with Digital Credit Union to finance residential solar systems

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/digital-federal-credit-union-offer-120000539.html


    It looks like markets are in a "risk-off" mood at least in the pre-market and solars are about to get hit pretty hard. Buying opportunity or will this decline last for a couple of weeks?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    "French oil giant Total and Canadian listed power developer Etrion are planning to build a 70 MW solar PV farm in Chile that they say will be the largest in the world that will be financed only by revenues from the spot price of electricity.
    Read more at http://cleantechnica.com/2013/09/30/worlds-biggest-solar-plant-financed-spot-market/#1PYTgkrMOS4LkWtC.99"

    "The equity will be shared by Etrion (70 per cent), Total and Chilean firm Solventus. The project will use technology manufactured by US-based SunPower, whose biggest shareholder is Total"

    Well it sux if Total is taking the money directly.

    Also CSIQ: http://www.pv-tech.org/news/kenya_signs_mou_for_50mw_with_canadian_consortium?utm_source=pvtech-feeds&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=news-rss-feed
    A consortium of companies that includes tier one manufacturer Canadian Solar has signed a memorandum of understanding with local Kenyan authorities to develop a 50MW PV in western Kenya.

    And Greenpeace says the worlds biggest coal miners, which is India will run out of their reserves in 17 ears. What the hell do we do then? :D
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks Norse and Sleepy. It looks like the global market is hit pretty hard this morning. I'll probably wait a day or two before I get it.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You might call it ignorance or luck, but I bought CSUN when they were 4% in the red, now they are up 14%
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I call it Eagle Eye. I decided to buy CSIQ when it was 4% down earlier as well.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's times like these when you should be buying. I bought some CSIQ options for $1.29 15 minutes ago and they are already worth $1.60; 25% gain in 15 minutes.

    I also bought some CSUN today at $4.24; I could of got if for $4.14, but I decided to put in a limit order and I missed. I replaced it again with a higher value and misse again. Finally I changed it to $4.24 and got struck luckily. It went up to $4.80 but now is back down to $4.60. I hate limit orders on stocks, but must use them on options.

    CSIQ was trading $15.94 15 minutes ago and now is already at $17.15. You may have missed your buying opportunity today. SOL also went from $4.60 to above $5.

    Maybe tomorrow will provide another buying opportunity but there is just too much good solar news out there for these stocks to go in any direction buy up.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I would have bought that cheap as well, but I messed with limit orders and missed :p

    - - - Updated - - -

    So you did buy afterall, that is great.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    CSUN might rally more, im buying options atm
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, bought CSIQ and CSUN as well what the heck.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    CSUN CSUN on a run
    CSUN CSUN full of fun
    I bought CSUN and I won
    Please CSUN go up a ton

    Sorry, couldn't help myself. You are a genius Norse with your CSUN pick. I have a feeling it won't last very long so I will enjoy it while I can.

    Up 25% :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am probably late to the game but I bought a few march $5calls for CSUN

    sleepy, CSIQ at $20 by Friday? Haha
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I found the information here: http://solarpvinvestor.com Great site, and with a forum with alot of info. It costs money, but you make it back in notime.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Market improving but solars pulling back? Odd price action. Taking profits? SPWR Negative?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Here is a stupid question. How do you evaluate which OTM call option contract to buy? I bought CSIQ NOV 13 21 calls but don't think it was a good choice. Should have gone for Jan or Apr 14. Any advice appreciated.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    more of an art rather than a science, but I look at implied volatility vs historic volatility, as well as open interest. For most of my trades, I like at least 6 months to give the trade time to succeed (esp true with the solar stocks). My last two buys were jan 15 csiq 17 strike calls on Friday and today, I bought April 14 17 strike calls. I usually stay at the money or slightly otm so I can hopefully form risk free bull call spreads as the stock moves up.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If the stock is in the red, and I am buying calls, I always just buy whatever dropped the most in the range I want. Probably not the best method, but whatever.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Listen to sleepy. You want April calls on CSIQ, cause they will probably sell more power plants in Q4. Q3 is over now.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    thanks for the link Norse! Seems like a great solar site. Is the forum as good as what we have here?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes it is, the HOT stock they are talking about now is JASO. One guy says it could be up 700%
    Im buying JASO atm.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    atm=at the moment or at the money? Also what expiration? Thanks!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    MAR14 Calls 12$ for 1.20 each.

    CSUN is going now guys!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    WTF CSUN?? will there be a correction later this week? Are you going long with your core position?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No, small one, got over 40 calls tho, 200% now.

    Might be more. Stock is up 50% now.

    300% :D

    what sux is, I cant sell since I resetted my buying power today. Fingers crossed it wont go down tomorrow.

    Remeber, the same guys giving me this tips, says JASO is next, do not know timeframe tho.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Do you have a long position that you are going to hold through 2014 or are you playing to sell all CSUN tomorrow when you can?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Csun=wow! Congrats to those that got in!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    CSUN keeps going on! 60%

    I sold 11% of my 401k and loaded up with CSUN today

    It now makes up 18% of my 401k :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Im gonna load some options tomorrow I guess. Suddenly 30% in my options portoflio are CSUN october calls. Perhaps I will load em over to CSIQ and JASO.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I bot another 20% of csiq this morning, this time, April '14 17 strike calls. Sleepy, Norse, do you think there is further upside in csun? I look at the chart, and it screams "wait for a pullback".
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Seriously.

    I was looking at CSun Friday. Was thinking of buying like a hundred contracts. This morning, it was up like 30% and I was looking thinking "Man, that really sucks, well too late now". Now it's at 60%!

    Luckily my other solar investments (CSIQ, JASO, SOL) are up to make me feel better.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The guy that tipped me off says 10$, maybe even this week. I have no idea, would probably buy tomorrow!

    I think the volume today is pretty awesome aswell.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I honestly don't know anything about the company. I bought it because of its bargain basement market cap. I will hold on for now, since they might have their Q2 results in October, but I don't know for sure.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sleepy, Norse,

    thanks. I decided against csun and went with jaso, as shall I say, the chart appears less "intimidating" :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Might be an entry point here.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Bought some JASO and CSIQ earlier today, shares. Damn, I am starving, still 30 minutes to lunch!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Finally got some CSIQ today thanks to @sleepy's blog post. Looking for an entry point for a few more solar stocks. CSUN would have been nice :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    KNDI kind of floundered today. I took a loss and got out of it but I wasn't really deeply invested in it anyway and went against my gut and bought too high. Oh well. I am looking CSUN and JASO now just simply because you guys seem very enthused about it from all the pages I am reading. We'll see if it does better.

    I usually stick with stocks a lot longer then a few days... but I have a feeling KNDI is going to continue to fall :(

    Of course I have no evidence to this claim and even less experience in stocks to say so :) grain of salt people.

    EDIT: What are your guys feelings about holding past Q3 results with SCTY? I got in around 11 dollars so I am not sweating but do you guys feel its over valued at this point? I have ready pretty much most of this thread and maybe I missed the conversation on it specifically for the Q3 results.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Im almost all out of SCTY. I see JKS, JASO, CSUN and CSIQ as my picks ahead in solar. SPWR, SCTY and some others are still under my radar tho.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Bought some CSIQ APR 14 17 calls just before market closed. Hopefully it'll continue to go up tomorrow so I can at least break even on my not-so-smart NOV 13 calls I bought earlier in the day.

    Who will be supplying panels to IKEA? IKEA starts selling solar panels for homes
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The company started selling solar panels made by China's Hanergy in its store in Southampton on Monday.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    thanks! Just found articles too.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Question apparently already answered.
    But hold your horses, this was announced five years ago and took on some actuality one year ago, via a quick goog. (Haven't read through, though.) Maybe this is where rubber hits roof, as it were? Articles in Swedish, but probably intelligible via Translate:

    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I could come up with 10 similar articles from today and 50 from the last week. Solar is booming. My best tip now is to buy Mar14 calls on JASO
    I might be wrong tho. But its the same guys that got on on CSUNE on thursday when it was at 3.30. It was at 6.95 today.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    CSUN went up for no reason at all. I feel that some people (including us) started buying it which started intriguing the traders who saw high volume. Therefore traders started buying in just in case, which eventually led to a self-fulfilling prophecy and the stock went up.

    Here is a Barron's article on solar, saying that the technicals support another 100% rally. I find it eerily similar to the article that I wrote just yesterday (which you can find in my signature right now). Coincidence?

    Solar Stocks Are Headed Higher - Barrons.com

    It is a paid link, so in order to read it you might have to Google the title "Solar Stocks are Headed Higher" and open it that way to be able to read it.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Look at the volume, its crazy. Also LDK 30% and 25% are up tho we all hate it. Noone at the other forum likes it aswell. JASO and CSIQ which we might think will go up 4-500% got only 3% and 1.5%.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hopefully this is okay for me to ask this in here as I don't think it merits its own thread.

    I am a relative newbie when it comes to stock ownership. I have only been doing it for two years with both Tesla and SCTY early on in their IPO's. I don't really leverage a crazy amount of money in these accounts, but lets just say I have been very pleased with the outcome. :)

    To my question, I have been investigating covered calls. I understand the idea of buying a call and agreeing to a "strike price" but I am not entirely sure when people mention stuff like "buy Mar14 calls" is this the date that you have to make good on the call? Meaning the person you agreed to buy it from, you have until that date to basically say "Ok I want my shares now, I'm all in lets do this transaction". So for instance you can agree to buy a stock at its strike price of 10 dollars but it goes up 12 dollars and you make a profit (minus the commission spent to get the call option). So I guess I am unsure how the date thing works. Can you just make good on the contract whenever you want or do you have to wait until that date before you can "seal the deal" so to speak.

    Any info would be helpful. I have searched numerous sites and maybe I am just not "getting it". :)

    EDIT: What brought this to mind is I am thinking of selling all my SCTY stock and doing covered calls for less risk of losing all that money I gained. Does that makes sense as a strategy? For reference I bought it at 11 dollars roughly.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You can make good on the contract whenever you want but that doesn't make any sense. It is better to sell the options in the open market and you'll get more money than exercising options early.

    Honestly, if you are asking these questions I would stay away from options for now and do some more research before you start buying.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Maybe tomorrow will be the day of JASO and CSIQ. All the one we have been discussing were also up after hours.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/16057-Newbie-Options-Trading Here you would learn alot. Remember to use limit orders aswell. Pretend u have invested and follow the options for a while. Then you will learn alot.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Certainly, this is part of my research. Thanks for the info, your advice is well appreciated as is everyone's here.

    EDIT: Thanks for the link Norse!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/russia-offers-first-ever-subsidies-for-renewable-energy_100012889/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter#axzz2gJZemqBn

    When even Russia starts with solar, im 100% convinced we are on the right track here.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ja-solar-supplies-5-mw-100000231.html

    The whole business starts in the green today, Hopefully its JASO`s time to shine!

    Polyprices going up. Very good for SOL and DQ.

    I think this will be a good day, thoose who are selling, sold at top yesterday.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I snagged some JASO Mar $13 calls this morning on the small dip it took down to $10.35

    Everything looks peachy today.
    Soon as i say that CSIQ and TSL nose dove $0.30

    TSL now negative? Wow did not see that coming.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So it was you. :tongue: I really need CSIQ to go up above $17.75 today so I can get rid of my NOV contracts. JASO looking good.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    sold 75% of my CSUN options at 1.65. Got them yesterday for 0.30 and 0.40.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    4-5 bagger is very nice Norse! Also, big thanks for the link to the solar forum. Joined last night and my initial impressions are very positive.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just be careful. Even though they are very knowledgeable about the solar industry, I would say that there knowledge on the stock market is very limited compared to some of the folks here on TMC. I would not take their investment advice too seriously, but rather use the forum to gather information and come up with your own decisions. Understanding the market is key to making money with options.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Why would you get rid of your Nov contracts? If thought it was a good idea to buy them yesterday then what changed your mind today?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    yeah, im loading up with CSIQ, SOL, JKS. I might have to much JASO.
    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/energy/power/renesola-plans-product-portfolio-branch-expansion-in-india/articleshow/23345002.cms
    With increasing poly prices SOL is the pick of the day IMO. I really like that they are going into the big market of India. They will sell alot here.

    When Shell says it will be the biggest, who knows how long it will be before other oil companies follows Total and gets into the industry?

    SHELL: Solar Will Be The World's No. 1 Source Of Energy By The End Of The Century

    Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/shell-says-solar-leads-world-by-2100-2013-10#ixzz2gTum3WbE
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I bought NOV 13 21 calls and now want to get rid of them to load up on APR 14 calls unless you think CSIQ is going to shoot up to 20 later this week or next week.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks for the heads up. Will proceed cautiously until I find members who are knowledgeable and reliable as those on this forum.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    looks like i missed the profit taking boat on CSUN
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I sold off 60% of my position in three steps for $6.62, $6.34, and $6.27. I regained my initial capital when I bought CSUN yesterday at $4.24. So I am riding 40% of my position risk free :)

    I will keep it for now, even though I don't know much about the company.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Profit taking is normal after such a quick run up. Now we have to wait and see if it continues to rise or not.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    CSUN has been taking a nose dive today. I sold all mine earlier today. Looks its earnings is on Thursday. Should we expect a good surprise?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Man Raymond James is a bear for sure. Bear in this article on Solar and Bear on Cree. Cree upgraded today and had a big run and then Raymond James comes out and says its an underperform and expect it to crash. Raymond James has nothing to good to say on anyone do they? Raymond James must have alot of old school energy in portfolio since its all about hate on green energy today.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I dont mind some shorters coming in :) Im am tho still long JASO.

    Washington, D.C. Unanimously Passes Community Solar Legislation
    http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/blog/post/2013/10/washington-d-c-becomes-10th-state-to-pass-community-solar-legislation?
    Now I guess this is how SunPower will conquer the US. Keep it up!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Huh Sleepy? I think i might get my $20 by Friday. Looks like your on track for you big call. If we blow through $20 before Friday then me might have a blast off on our hands.

    I dropped my CSUN today as well. i think i made a 5% because i got in late and got out late. But I did not know about earnings coming up. I dont think anyone here has done that research yet so i am going to sit on the sidelines for CSUN unless some one has some solid data to go off of.

    Also nice to see SPWR getting close to its Pre Q2 levels. I still have my 15 wacky Jan14 $39 calls from before Q2 that I was down 90% on. Would be fun to see if i can get at least 50% of that back still. (unoffically got 10% back on them in the last two days, only down 80% now! lol )
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    i thought the following line from the shell report was an interesting tidbit i hadn't considered re: solar:

    any thoughts on this? while it is an obvious point, i hadn't thought about the impact of seasons on solar PV...

    surfside
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    After hours CSIQ, JASO and others down. Any ideas why?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    no volume there so nothing to worry about.
    �
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