Chủ Nhật, 30 tháng 10, 2016

Alternative Energy Investor Discussions part 13

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    How is that possible? What stocks have even moved +67% since the shutdown started?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Who said anything about stock?

    I also manage 3 of my own retirement accounts that are 100% stock, long only, no margin accounts. Since the start of the government shutdown those 3 portfolios, which are buy and hold type accounts (minimal trading and virtually none since gov. shutdown), are up 18%, 20% and 23%.

    The point I am trying to make is:

    Buy and hold.

    Stop trying to time the market, figure out what the politicians are going to do, or figure out what the market is going to do while the politicians are trying to figure out what they are going to do. As far as I know the day that the politicians find a solution, pass a funding bill, and increase the debt limit could be the day that my portfolio loses 5%. That's why I...

    ...buy and hold.

    When I buy and hold, I don't care what the politicians do tomorrow or how the market reacts, because I know that I have done the research and my portfolios are going to be up 100%, and probably a lot more, in 12 months time.

    The one 401k that I managed all year had some trades in it, but that was to move from one position to another and not to time the market. I had virtually 100% of cash invested at all times and never held some cash on the sidelines to take advantage of market movements. I never tried to sell at what I thought was a peak, only to hold cash to buy it back later for cheaper. I never "took profits" because of Cyprus concerns, because of Syria, because of shutdown, because of debt ceiling, because I thought we were heading for correction.

    That portfolio is up 348% year to date, because I never tried to time the market. I simply bought and held, because I knew the stocks were incorrectly valued and that they had to go up. The worst thing you can do is to watch the stock skyrocket while you were sitting on the sidelines waiting for pullback.

    If you know a stock is cheap and you want to invest in it then:

    Buy and hold.

    If you are afraid the politicians will screw this up, then sell everything you have and sit in cash (not money market) and wait it out. Just don't be surprised to pay a 10% premium after the dust settles.

    Good luck to all. I am just trying to help you guys make money and not lose it. What I do is completely different and would not recommend it to anyone. Well, except for the part where I...

    ...buy and hold.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think if you are long and are afraid of short term crap, then sell calls to hedge. If the market tanks you take the profit from the calls, if it doesn't you buy the calls back at a slight loss. Worst case you'll miss out on some gains. Selling all the shares to re-enter at a possible lower price point is catching the proverbial knife.

    And ckessel: I think he's buying stock and options. With options it's easy to gain 67%. My portfolio was down -30% the first day the crap hit the fan, but through buying back some hedges and buying long calls during the dips I was up +30% on the portfolio yesterday. A nice 60% gain in approximately 1-2 weeks. And I think about a third of that gain is realized, not paper profit. If the market tanks tomorrow or on Friday, then I'll buy more options so that when the market recovers in a few weeks I'll be even better positioned and riding it back to current price I will be +50% or more :) Now I might buy some insurance for the short term (i.e. weekly puts) to possibly offset a serious crash and burn coming with the talks breaking down in DC, but I'll keep loading up on Nov/Dec options for TSLA and Mar or 2015 options in solars.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I do actually consider myself to be a buy and hold investor, especially when it comes to TSLA, I wasn't planning on selling even one share for many years to come. However, all the doom and gloom that the media is portraying regarding the debt ceiling and another 2008 scenario all over again, but worse this time, has made me insecure. Since I'm not that knowledgable on American politics or world economics I have a hard time judging how much is FUD and what scenario is realistic. But thanks for keeping things in perspective!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I wasn't referring to you specifically. I was recommending CSIQ a couple of months ago when it was at $10. Buy and hold would have been the answer. But now that it is at $20, everyone is looking to buy short term options (should have been buying back when they were cheap). They might even payoff big, but the most likely outcome is that you will lose money.

    If you want to buy options that is your prerogative, but please do not do it based off what I post here; do your own research before making such decisions. I can highly recommend buying the stock and holding, but options are all on you.

    The problem I see is that a lot of people are buying options, who should not be doing it. To make it worse, they are looking at the shortest term options possible. E.g. one poster here bought a Nov $21 call on CSIQ a couple of weeks ago when it was at $16.50. The next day there was a small pullback to $16, and that same person is posting I hope CSIQ gets to $16.85 today so I can sell the Nov. calls I bought yesterday and break even.

    Had he just held on to the options (I think he might have; I gave him hints to do so), they probably tripled by now. But more importantly it shows me that he should not be buying short term options with that kind of investment mindset. If you are worried about at least breaking even on options then don't buy them. When you buy options kiss your money goodbye and don't expect to see it again, i.e. only invest an amount that you are comfortable losing. In your assumptions, the base case should be a complete loss and then go from there to decide how much to invest in options.

    Now that CSIQ is up 30% in the last two weeks and 100% in the last two months, everybody is getting on board and wants to buy short-term options. Maybe they will pay off, and maybe even pay off big. But your chances of making money are much smaller than the guy who bought his Nov $21 call two weeks ago. Your chances of losing money is a lot bigger now that the stock has gone up so much.

    I still think that CSIQ is undervalued and will go up, but I am not sure on what the short term will bring. If their earnings disappoint then the stock may go down 50% and even your deep ITM options will expire worthless and you will lose a lot of money. That is why I recommend buying stock and holding on; eventually I think you will triple your investment and at least double it barring any recession.

    If you want to buy options then you should be getting greedy when everyone else is fearful. Now that everybody wants a piece of CSIQ, options are super expensive and will not net you the great returns had you bought last week or two weeks ago or last month. You can still buy stock and sit on it though. Just know that as every day passes by, the risk/reward on CSIQ options is getting significantly worse.

    There are a lot of people who made a lot of easy money on TSLA playing options for Q1 earnings, and now I feel like all those who missed out are trying to make up for it by buying extremely risky options on solar. Solar is not a sure-fire bet like TSLA was in Q1, so you can lose big if things don't work out.

    Happy investing.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Perhaps it's semantics, but if it's not stock, then what are you buying and holding? All options have a definitive lifetime and thus some intent to time the market. Unless by hold you mean hold for longer than X weeks, which is fine, it just wasn't clear to me from the original context.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You can buy and hold options as well.

    What I am saying is that I do not try to time the market by selling today to buy back cheaper tomorrow. This has been the prevailing trend here on the forum and it makes me cringe.

    Everyone thought the markets would be down today, but the futures are up almost 1%. That is why I don't play the game of buying and selling to time the market on a daily basis.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    rumour out that BoAML has raised PT on TSL from 12$ to 22$!! note RUMOUR!

    Anyone with a Merill Lynch account that could verify this please?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well I bought CSIQ January $14 when it was around the breakout region of $16.5 and have loaded up on more and more during pullbacks. Right now they are nicely deep in the money and I'm contemplating if I should hedge some of them. I've had SCTY January ones as well that have run up nicely and am hedging them for various profit levels that make risk free spreads (35-47.5, 35-52.5). So the buy and hold works quite well for options as well, one just capitalizes partially on hedges that make them risk free. Or you buy 2015/2016 options which are longer term buy and hold strategies. And if the stock moves up significantly the hedging will provide low cost and if there's a pullback due to volatility you can always buy back the hedge making profit from the swings (i.e. re-hedging on the next up swing without losing your core long position).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, exactly this. But I noticed most people here buy the options when the stock is running up 4%, 5%, etc. trying to chase the price. This is a losing strategy for options. This is when you should be selling or hedging them.

    Mario - once I create a risk-free spread I let it run. Use the capital to start new option positions that will eventually turn into risk-free spreads hopefully. Keep creating these over and over. Cash out the entire spread when it hits 80% or 90% of max payout.

    I do not buy back my hedges, because if you do this then your spread is not risk free anymore.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Market is happy today but it appears all the solars are lacking. CSIQ is the only one with any real gain or not in the red. (of all the solars i watch)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Would you mind to elaborate a little on this sort of "risk-free spread"? How exactly to build such a spread? With an example would be very helpful. Thanks!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well in many cases the hedge I do is because there's some uncertainty in the short term or the stock has run up "too fast". It's taking the risk off the table for the duration of the uncertainty and if there's a serious pullback I buy the hedge back because if the fundamentals have not changed, then I am back in the initial position where I bought the long position and I'll want to add more long term exposure. So I buy the hedge back at profit and possibly even add more to the initial long position. However to do that the position has to come profitable enough. That's what I did with Tesla where I had hedged my november, december and march calls and when the whole crap started and Tesla dropped to $168 region I bought back the hedges and loaded up on the november calls. Then when the stock bounced back I rode up 4x as fast as I rode down. Now that it's been leveling a bit I hedged some of those new pickups.

    For solars I've mostly opened smaller positions (about 10% of my portfolio) and mostly kept them pure longs, but CSIQ has had a nice run up so I was considering heding 40% of my position to lock in some profit.

    Also, sometimes during the pullbacks the hedge calls are the ones I'd like to buy for the base long calls :) In those cases things just balance out that the first N will actually remove the prior hedge with profit. I could buy the next strike, but that's artificially keeping it separate if I do look at the same expiration.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Example from my spreadsheet:

    09.10.13CALLTSLA25.10.13 $175,00 $6,651
    09.10.13CALLTSLA25.10.13 $175,00 $4,661
    11.10.13CALLTSLA25.10.13 $180,00 $6,10-1
    14.10.13CALLTSLA25.10.13 $185,00 $5,70-1
    The average purchase price of the first two $175 calls is $5.66. Selling 2 days and 5 days later higher strike calls for the same price (or higher in this case) I opened fully risk free call spreads of $175-$180 and $175-$185. Probably should have bought more $175's down there and had some to sell yesterday when TSLA hit $189, could have probably made a third risk free spread of $175-$190 as well :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Oh it's bull call spread. I thought you were using put to hedge. Very clear! Thanks! Just unfortunately my brokerage doesn't allow me to sell call, except covered call.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well it depends on how they count it, but if you have two $175 calls that expire on the same day, then selling $180 and $185 calls is covered by the $175 ones :) Then again I do remember having to scream at my broker that they are idiots at my previous bank. Moving to the new one that uses IB as backend with for me unknown level of access (but I do get all possible transaction capabilities with margin and all that so quite deep) was the best move I could have made. I've been making tons more profit now that I have full market access and can use any strategy I want to make money.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    In order to make money in options you need the highest level of clearance (be able to sell naked puts). If you don't have that, then you are doomed to lose money. All of the best and safest options strategies require highest level of clearance.

    These levels of clearance make absolutely no sense at all either. You can do covered calls with level 1 clearance, but you need level 3 clearance to sell naked puts.

    Naked put is the exact same thing as a covered call. :rolleyes:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not necessarily. You take the obligation to buy the stock at price X. Covered call is obligation to sell stock at price X. With a naked put on TSLA your max loss is when the stock bankrupts and can incur hundreds of times bigger loss than the put value itself was. I guess that's why there's a higher level requirement. But I agree, you need maximum flexibility to make money. I still remember how handicapped I was when I was limited to 3 day trades in 5 trading days. Running out of them JUST when something interesting happened and being unable to create new positions was a pain. Also closing a losing deal and being unable to buy back when the trend turns... Argh... I quickly just pulled enough of other reserves together to have the net liquidation above $25k so that I wouldn't have to worry about day trades and that improved a lot even if I wasn't using the money. By now it's all game money anyway and I'm far enough away from 25k that I don't need to worry about hitting that even during a slump with large delta :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SCTY just broke 50$...... this was when I was supposed to re hedge my bull call spread but suddenly I'm not feeling so disciplined (that NEVER happens.... I swear!). The problem is I would be limiting my upside completely as I don't have any more shares in SCTY. Damn Margin calls....;-)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Naked put is a synthetic covered call.

    Covered call is a synthetic naked put.

    Essentially the same thing.

    If the stock price goes up then the naked put expires worthless and you have no security left in your portfolio. In case of covered call, your stock gets called away and you have nothing left either. Same result.

    If price goes down then you will be put TSLA stock and now own TSLA stock. In case of covered call, your short call expires worthless and you are left with TSLA stock. Once again, exact same result.

    Depending on what strike prices you buy, a naked put is virtually the exact same thing as a covered call.

    Regarding your 100x bigger loss, well that is not possible because your brokerage restricts capital after you sell a naked put to limit your losses.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My brokerage is different. I'm allowed to buy calls/puts, sell covered calls (must be covered by stocks but not long calls), sell naked puts (needs to be secured I think), but just no naked calls. They said they didn't support option strategies, therefore I can't do something like call spreads.

    And they charges $9.95+nX$1.25 for option trading. I'm trying to open an IB account now.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Merrill Lynch Bank of America Raising PO�s for Buy rated TSL, YGE... TSL 12 => 22 and YGE 7 => 11

    Merrill Edge Login
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What is going on with SCTY? It's flying now.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yawza, I had a standing sell order on Jan 52.5 for 5.3 to hedge and it went through at some point while I was monitoring TSLA. Now the call's already worth $7 and I could have sold $57.5 for $5.3 ;) Oh well. And I'm all out of cheaply bought SCTY calls as well so I guess I'll have to be satisfied with 300% gains on initial expenditure if the risk free spreads mature fully in the money.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wednesday, Oct 16
    10:18 AM

    SolarCity prices stock, convertible debt offerings


    • SolarCity (SCTY +2.9%) is selling 3.4M shares at $46.54 (3% below current levels), and $200M worth of convertible senior notes due 2018. The debt offering was upsized from $125M yesterday. Net proceeds from the offerings are expected to total $344.8M-$396.6M, depending on the extent to which underwriter options are exercised. (PR)
    • The convertible notes carry an interest rate of 2.75%, and a conversion price of $61.67 (30% above current levels).
    • The offerings are the latest in a string of financing moves (I, II, III) carried out by SolarCity, as the company makes an all-out push to ramp its solar installations.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I bought some SCTY leaps for 2015 (already up BTW). I'm betting we will solve the debt crisis and go up even more today. So I would like to close my Bull Call spreads (they would be risk free even now) a bit later today. Basically I will have substituted my shares with leaps (should give me some good leverage going forward) and removed my risk with my BC spreads.

    It feels so easy when the underlying goes up....
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I disagree.

    1. Buy Call @ stock low, Sell Call @ stock high
    2. Buy Put @ stock high, Sell Put @ stock low

    To do either of these activities in reverse order requires "naked" option writing, and gives you more tools in your toolbox. But doing them in the displayed order can make money as well -- with zero investment in the actual stock.

    Edits in blue.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think you meant 2. Sell Put @ high, buy Put @ low :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good luck with that. It will not work in the long run (well it might with TSLA).

    In order to be able to use the really great options strategies that minimize risk and make you money you need the highest level of clearance. There are very complex options strategies out there that do a great job in risk management, but you need the highest level of clearance (and of course the knowledge how to set these strategies up).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What a ride with SCTY.............
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think you misunderstood my post.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Again, no. You spoke (and continue to speak) in absolutes that are incorrect. If you'd like to qualify them so that they are not absolutes, then we might agree.

    Yes, if you're willing to ask for more tools and take on the associated risk of them you have additional ways to make money but saying those additional tools are the only way to make money with options is patently incorrect.

    I did over 200 transactions in a single year a few years ago on a single stock dealing only with covered calls (not even puts) and made some nice money off of it. Currently, I'm "dabbling" with covered calls and puts in TSLA and making some nice gains with it. Can I make more with uncovered? Probably, and I might move to that. But saying it's the only way to make money with options is quite incorrect and, frankly, makes me question your perspective generally.

    Sorry mods: I probably created more "pull this into a new thread" work by continuing the off-topic, but I think it's important to address comments that are asserted as truisms when we have a lot of people of different stock experience levels that are reading these threads.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ah indeed I thought the low and high were the call/put values, now I understand you meant the underlying. Yes, buying calls and puts to ride the ups and downs can work, but it has to be relatively short term options. I've used weeklies to get nice exposure to such moves. Doing it with long term options is going to be harder, but yes means no need for any actual stock (I in fact have only money and options, no stocks at all).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Has anyone tried selling puts for CSIQ or SPWR? I'm looking to sell deep ITM puts and hoping they'll be exercised and I'll be assigned the shares. Doing this as a way to buy shares of CSIQ and SPWR (essentially at todays prices) in a few months when I have more cash on hand. If puts expire worthless then at least I'll have made profit from the premium. But the volume for puts is so low for both CSIQ and SPWR and it's hard to find a good deep ITM strike. So just wondering if others have done this before?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just sold some SPWR March 22 $39 puts for $10.90. So I'll only have a loss if SPWR is below 28.10 come March. Otherwise, if it's under $39, I'll be happy to purchase the shares and if it's over $39 I'll just keep the premium. Biggest risk is the economy tanking and causing SPWR to tank which I think is unlikely.

    Actually fairly happy with this trade. If I see some intra-day pullbacks on CSIQ or SPWR I might continue to do this.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nice to see CSIQ break the 21.50 and head straight for $22. Working on it now.
    Lets see if SPWR can fallow suit and break 31.50
    More 52 week highs!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I like this trade. I would do a lot more of these if I had a ton of money. Since I don't, I buy calls. I just don't like selling puts because it ties up a lot of capital.

    Maybe I get carried away sometimes speaking in absolutes, but I noticed a lot of new investors coming in here seeing people make small fortunes on options so they want to buy as well. I am trying to discourage people from doing this if they do not understand options extremely well.

    I am just passing along some knowledge from a very smart MBA professor who had experience working for hedge funds, etc. He says that you need max level clearance in options and that the other levels will only lose you money. Buying calls is not going to work in the long run, because it is like gambling against the casino. If you do your homework on a stock, know that it is going to go up a lot very quickly, and you understand options extremely well then you can beat the system and consistently make money (even with straight calls and lowest level of clearance), so I will give you that. But there are a lot of newbies here that are going to get crushed with options.

    No one ever got wiped out from buying AAPL stock. But I have read about a lot of people who got wiped out in 2008 from buying options in AAPL. Same thing is going to happen to TSLA eventually.

    In your example, one year time frame is not long-term. Even if TSLA goes up for the next 10 years, then there will definitely be periods where people will lose lots of money on call options and some will even get wiped out. If you have highest level of clearance and use sophisticated strategies then you can avoid getting wiped out in the worst of times and fight to live another day, while maintaining most if not all of the upside.

    I am just trying to help people not lose money in these stocks. Those who are more sophisticated in options can simply ignore what I write. I write in absolutes sometimes in order to scare away newbie investors who don't know anything about options, but think it is a guaranteed way to make big returns on TSLA when it goes up.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I will admit that options have been kicking my ass a bit the past few weeks. I don't have a lot of capital compared to most on this board so I liked the idea of tying up less money with more potential upside. Definitely been a learning process, and I think after I gain some of my losses back I'm going to stick to LEAPS and normal stock. I find myself way too stressed out with shorter term options...

    My take away is that you definitely need a larger portfolio to benefit from dealing with options. I don't have enough cash laying around to hedge myself at every little bump and its been chipping away at me throughout this whole government shutdown process. I'm currently sitting at a 35% overall loss, and it was closer to 50% at its worst.

    So I appreciate Sleepy's honesty. While its discouraging for me to read it, its also showing to be true. Just glad I'm young and can afford a loss like this.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Actually, the reason I'm doing this is because it doesn't require money up front. I would like to buy calls, but don't have the cash now and IV is really high so selling puts just seems like a better strategy. You're right, it does tie up my margin capital, but I'm okay with that b/c I avoid margin anyways.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    yep and I agree pretty much with sleepy. except on rare occasions (and in small amounts)- I stick with stock and LEAPS. and the LEAPS get rolled up and out as they build (usually converting back to stock)- I used the LEAPS generally as a stock replacement to accelerate gains for growth stocks like TSLA watching them constantly - rarely less than 6 months from expiration before moving them out. That's worked well for me and actually reduces the $ at risk if you equate it to stock shares instead of $s in.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    When i first started learning i ran into much of the same Clemsons. I too was down some 50% at one point, lucky at that time have very little in my options account because i knew i was just learning. the final straw of that hit came on the GS "upgrade" of Tesla. Since then i have played longer options and safer ones. I still play some short term earnings here and there and seem to get bit every time. But i play with small amount of house money that i am ok with gambling. I have listened to sleepy and i take my time with any options i purchase if the sum of money is over $500. I still play some feeler options with small capital (Under $500) Only one has really paid off (Thanks FB!)

    If your just getting into options due to the lore of high reward on small amount of cash. be smart and play options like stock. Stick with long term, ITM or Close OTM calls. The % gain might not be as big as many other plays, but that is because they are much safer.

    Dont blindly fallow like sheep. Make your own informed choices. Dont go play every solar cuz solar is the "it" thing to do. Some of these solars are still in real danger of going under.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yea I think my problem was that I got greedy. I tend to dislike delayed gratification so I saw numbers like "300% in a month" and my ears perked right up, haha. The whole waiting thing is my biggest work in progress ;)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    To regularly get big gains you have to have a strong stomach and buy instead of sell in some downturns. Also, trying to hope for recovery is a bad strategy, you should define what your exit strategy is or action on what you are playing the options game. If the game's going in a different direction than you planned then exercise your exit strategy taking the loss. Hoping and keeping going will most of the times give you worse losses than you had originally (learned through tough situations over the years). Then again if the market is evaluating the options cheaper and cheaper while your crucial event (i.e. ER or similar) hasn't happened yet, then this is a good buying opportunity to reduce your entry price, it's also good to be disciplined and sell the excess contracts once they reach profitability because they're outside your original strategy.

    Also trying to keep the investment small (a few hundred bucks) is going to be tough and set an artificial limit that will make you cramp up and therefore miss opportunities and set you up for more likely failure. You'll choose further OTM options to get them cheaper and you will not buy additional ones therefore not being able to leverage. Also, being able to get maximum clearance to the market is essential so that you can hedge etc. If happiness comes fast don't keep hoping, hedge locking in the profit :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Great advice. And I would like to add that the solar companies are in real danger of going bankrupt. I don't see it happening at all (at least the companies I like), but that is just my personal opinion and I could be dead wrong.

    CSIQ closed above $22. It just keeps going up. Good luck to those who are waiting for a pullback to get in. Honestly, I hope you guys never get your pullback, but we all know that there will be one eventually. CSIQ is going to become the gold standard of Chinese solar companies and dethrone TSL. They are copying SPWR's business model and it is a very smart thing to do. Q3 should be really, really good. Now that it looks like congress will settle this mess tonight, look out for a potential earnings preannouncement (speculation on my part).

    SCTY went up really strong today +12%. I really wanted to buy some weekly options on SCTY the day after the huge run up. But then I looked at the Oct $50 calls on Tuesday when SCTY was just above $45 and they were going for something crazy like $1. Even though I knew SCTY would continue its run (you don't announce huge news like that only to have a one day run up followed by pullback and/or consolidation) there was no risk reward in buying options since IV was so high.

    SPWR has been going really strong on no news. This can only mean one thing: the market is finally starting to realize that solar is about to explode. Yes/no/maybe so?

    SOL and JASO have been lagging big time. If you are looking for a longer term investment that has potential to double or triple at any time then look no further. These stocks are really cheap right now and might have the best risk reward profile.

    JKS as I expected hit the $25 resistance and is now consolidating. Don't be fooled by this, because it is a very strong company that might post some really good earnings this quarter and basically every quarter in the foreseeable future; just like CSIQ.

    TSL and YGE - I don't follow these stocks, because there are too many analysts following them. They will probably continue going up, but they already have the highest market caps and IMO do not deserve it compared to CSIQ. Yes, TSL is still undervalued (can't say that for YGE with its huge debt load), but IMO CSIQ should have a higher market cap than TSL. CSIQ will have more revenune, more profit, has power plant experience, is now entering residential in US. TSL has none of this.

    Right now I like CSIQ, JASO, and JKS/SOL in that order.

    Good luck to all and please do some research before blindly following my opinions. I could be extremely wrong in my assumptions.

    Happy Investing!

    - - - Updated - - -

    This is great advice as well. You really need maximum clearance to play options to create spreads at will.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was doing great up until when the market pulled back because of the delayed Washington dealing last week. I would have been set for earnings month and made a nice profit but I just kept catching the proverbial falling knives the last week. I made a couple wrong decisions that cost me a good chunk of money. I sold calls at a loss to hedge with puts (did have any spare capital laying around to buy the puts outright which goes back to the needing more money part I stated earlier), and then the stock never went down again. I should have just held onto the calls and they would be in the green (barely) right now and I'd have a much smaller percentage loss. Just didn't want to lock in losses by exiting all my positions or be uncovered for a market tank due to the looming default deadline.

    Chock it up as payment for schooling I guess :rolleyes:

    Anyways, sorry for the offtopic just feels good to get it off my chest haha.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Quick question - why is "Canadian Solar" a Chinese company?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nah, I managed to get my entire portfolio down ca 30-40% in the first year of options trading which was mostly due to two factors:

    1) I was using a broker where I called them to make trades and that meant missing out on crucial steps because I couldn't always reach them fast enough and had to contemplate always if it's worth the call or not. Moving to IB platform this February has netted me tons of gains bringing the whole portfolio to green and beyond. Mostly because of pre-defined exit strategies that execute stop losses

    2) A couple of extremely stupid hoping for losses. I had defined a strategy post-earnings for Apple and the stock kept going the wrong way. When it then recovered for a moment I could have exited my position with minor profit (or at least exited most of it) I kept going hoping that it'll now recover. It didn't. Same thing happened not too long ago with Netflix where I made the wrong call and instead of exiting kept leveraging even though I knew the original ad-hoc plan had been wrong. That multiplied my loss by a factor of 5.

    So now I try to avoid such situations by having to just clench the teeth and take the loss. For example I closed my $195 dec put the moment it touched $31.95 because this way I exited it with 0 loss for the last trade I had made on it reducing my margin requirement by 30% and making me breathe more easily. Of course had I not done that I'd have netted a nice profit by today, but that's not the point I stuck to my strategy.

    Today I planned to buy 4 contracts of $185 weeklies to leverage the deal on which I'm expecting a recovery at least to the levels we saw earlier today. As the stock kept slowly going down I bought it up one by one at lower and lower prices (started at $2.8). I had mentally reserved twice the amount for temporary leverage so I kept buying the calls at lower and lower prices when it dropped lowering the total average finally to $2.35. I had planned for sure to sell the extra 4 contracts as soon as the option passed $2.35, but that just barely didn't happen so I planned to take the loss and close out those 4 before market close, but managed to miss it by a few seconds somehow so now I'm sitting on 8 contracts which is not what I had planned originally, but this time it's not my strategic failure, but just technical hiccup that my order didn't materialize on the market before it closed. Oh well at worst I'll be paying some schooling money tomorrow for not closing it earlier than last seconds of the market :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Factories are in China, tho I think they have a factory in Canada.

    However my wish list is for tomorrow is: TSL and JASO, get up! And for CSIQ to pre-announce earning. I bet some companies have been waiting for the debt ceiling and all that to announce.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Let's get SOL on the team as well.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    yeah, higher poly prices benefit them. But Im not sure if its high enough for them to go DAQO.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So it's a Canadian company with factories in China, right? E.g., Apple has factories in China, too, but isn't considered a Chinese company (although I guess FoxConn is a separate company).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I wasn't suggesting it was long term. In fact, if anything, I was suggesting it is a very short term. My point in that piece of data was frequency of activity.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Good point. I'll do some editing to make it clearer in the original post.

    I find the "headroom" for weeklies to be too tight for my liking. When I buy monthlies "too close" (like, say only 2 weeks remaining) I find that I get more anxious and tend to feel pressure to "seal a small loss" rather than "wait a bit longer for a break even or small gain" when my original instincts mismatched the eventual market activity.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hi Sleepy,
    Quick question. Is it too late to get into SCTY, CSIQ, SPWR and the other solar stocks? They have all head great runs this year so far, but I have been afraid of investing in such small compaines because the stock prices can so easily be manipulated.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    They can be manipulated in the short run, but in the long run they cannot. Plus volume is picking up quickly which means less manipulation.

    I can't say anything about SCTY, but I think CSIQ is still a fantastic long-term buy. It has been running hot and could pull back any day. It could also make a positive announcement that will shoot the stock even higher.

    SPWR is a hit or miss with the markets, but I am a big believer in their huge long-term potential.

    I would definitely buy the solars before Q3. I have no idea what SPWR will do, but I am very confident in CSIQ Q3 results.

    The solar industry is only getting started and these might be life changing investments, kind of like TSLA. I have done a lot of research and I like everything I see, it is only a matter of time before these stocks go higher.

    When fundamentals start changing in the industry I will definitely let you guys know. But right now everything is getting better for these companies. I would also add some JASO and SOL as well as JKS into your consideration.

    Make sure to do some research before investing though.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am stealing this from the Short-Term TSLA Price Movements Thread:

    Please help me understand, something does not check out here - why have the solar panel prices have bottomed in q4 2012, given that there are so many manufacturers and their costs still go down? Everything seems to confirm that prices are still getting lower, what is your source?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What he means is that prices to manufacture panels are getting lower, but that selling prices of completed panels are going up. This is because demand is extremely high. Such that even if you increase supply, you can still raise prices, because demand increases are outstripping supply increases. This also means higher margins for manufacturers, which means more money, which means more EPS, which means higher stock prices.

    Think of it like Model S price increases. Tesla has been able to increase the price of the Model S because demand is so high for the car and even though they're increasing production, there are still enough people to buy the cars that even after raising prices they can still max out the factory. There's no guarantee that this will continue forever, but that is similar to the situation in solar right now, I believe, according to theshadows.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Oh, hi there, FANGO

    Now, I can't speak for TheShadows, but it seems they are in the business of buying panels and state they have seen a steady increase in prices, which have already left the bottom. Why? Maybe increased demand, maybe manufacture consolidation to some degree (?), maybe international tariffs agreements?

    Just a wild guess on my part.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks for the explanation, FANGO! I actually had no idea that the demand is already bigger than supply. While this is great for manufacturers and for the industry in general, this means that we are not approaching grid parity while prices stay high - but of course this is just a temporary thing until capacity increases or markets get saturated (and we are very far from it).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Grid parity may not actually be all that important in the short-term. If what theshadows is saying (and my interpretation of it) is correct, what this tells us is that consumers are willing to pay "more" for solar than for other energy types, even if we are not at grid parity, because they see long-term benefits from cut costs or independence from the grid or environmental benefits, or because they're taking advantage of subsidies, or because they see social or marketing benefits of being involved in "green" energy, or any number of other reasons.

    Of course, as breathers of air and living beings of a moderate-temperature planet, we all want adoption to come at the maximum rate possible, and maybe grid parity would increase that rate. But you're never going to have more solar panels than you can manufacture, and as long as we're working in a capitalist framework manufacturers are motivated by money, so higher margins can do nothing but good.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Damn, planned to contribute to the solar panels profits by installing some and was looking at the incentives that listed that they cover 70% of the installation costs which got me very happy until I found out that the program has ended because they ran out of support money. Damn... need to invest in solar companies more now to earn enough profit to install a solar system ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I wanted to put SCTY on my 'small business'....electric bill is $1,500/mo. They are so busy with residential and large businesses that they are not even starting a waiting list for my size business. Must be nice to be too busy!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    JinkoSolar upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse

    Credit Suisse just upgraded Jinko Solar (JKS) to outperform and raised PT from $22 to $32

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/jinkosolar-upgraded-outperform-neutral-credit-101402107.html

    Looks like the bigger banks are finally catching on. That is 40% upside.

    For those of you who think that there will be one winner in solar are going to be disappointed. There are ~150 solar companies in China, but only ~11 of those are considered tier 1. Almost all, if not all, of the tier 1 companies will be winners. Some will win more than others.

    That's why I recommend CSIQ as a long term winner. JKS is at least a short term winner. JASO and SOL are so undervalued that they could potentially reap the biggest short term gains. TSL and YGE are the most known and most covered companies and might get the nod from analysts first, before they figure out that the other companies are more undervalued.

    It is all a guessing game regarding which one will go up first so you might as well buy them all. That is what I am doing.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Just after I posted this I stumbled upon this article:

    http://www.solarserver.com/solar-magazine/solar-news/current/2013/kw42/npd-solarbuzz-chinese-top-tier-solar-pv-module-makers-undermining-prices-for-western-companies.html

    NPD Solarbuzz Inc. (Santa Clara, California, U.S.) reports that top-tier Chinese solar photovoltaic (PV) producers continue to gain market share, and are undermining �premium� module brands from the United States and Europe with lower prices, and setting the pace for global prices due to their dominant market position.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks sleepy! I was just wondering why JKS was up more than usual in pre-market. I share your view that JKS is a good short term investment. Ideally, I'd like to have a good run up with JKS and then move my position into more JASO.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow.....so glad I bought more calls in SCTY.....this movement is really surprising though.....we might be going overboard a little bit too fast.....

    - - - Updated - - -

    P.s. SCTY is at ATH......
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Damn it - now I really regret selling my OCT 32.50 calls I bought @ $1.50. They were set to expire tomorrow. However, this sort of movement is very hard to predict. My common SCTY bought at ~$28 is definitely enjoying this ride though :D
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The solar bull market is going strong. Good thing this is only the beginning.

    BTW, Credit Suisse also updated its 2013 solard demand forecast to 37 GW's from 35 GW's.

    Interesting to note the Solarbuzz had a demand forecast for 2013 of 31 GW's just 6 months ago. I think they have raised it to 37 GW's since then as well.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I sold JKS to finance the IPO of REC Solar, I mixed up the dates as I can not buy REC before tomorrow.

    #timing
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What are good sources for research on these companies? I think its easy to identify TMC as the best research tool out there for Tesla, but I doubt there is anything similar for these companies.
    Can you contribute more of your research on these fourms (links, papers etc.) as I think it would really help some of us who aren't as familiar with the industry get to know it better.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That is my goal. Norse and I might set up a website to get the information out there.

    We post a lot of the info here, but it gets lost very quickly.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    As another relative n00b to solar investing, I would appreciate this very much.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looks like solar is having a run up for Q3 ER. Does anyone see any reason why there should be a pull back anytime soon? It feels like it's just better to get in now rather than wait for a small pull back and instead possibly miss on the run up.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    +1. Even though solar was one of my first investments back in 2009-2011 (I guess it speaks about my research skills, but at the time I was sure that the recession is over and it's time to get in), it ended badly and I didn't look back until I started reading TMC's investor forums regularly. It's a bummer that I missed on a nice run this year, but it looks like this is only the beginning.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I guess with those stocks one must "just do it"............ (sorry couldn't resist :-D)

    So far I just went in with CSIQ and SCTY. I don't have the mental resources to keep all of those stocks under control as much as I need to invest without just gambling blindly. I'm considering getting into JUST one more stock though....just because the chinese solar story is too good to miss out on.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think you have to look for mid day pullbacks and not chase them on the way up. That said they will probably correct at least once before Q3 10%-15%. They can also go up 30% before correcting.

    You just never know. That is why I advocate to buy and hold. If you commit to hold CSIQ for 1 year then I think you will be happy with the return.

    I remember recommending SPWR to my friend about 6 months ago. He kept watching it go up and finally got in at $13 at the top. Then it slowly started going down and reached $9 at one point. I felt really bad, but now it is at $32 and he is very greatful for the advice.

    I told him that it will go to $50 in 4 years. He said, wow if that happens I will take you out to dinner. Looks like I might be having that dinner 3 years early. Just shows how fast undervalued stocks can move.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Haha :) I actually just did :) Continuing my strategy of selling DITM puts a few months out and hoping I can be assigned the shares.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Yea, I also just don't think it's worth it to try to time it perfectly. So what if I miss out on a few percentage points, I'm in it for the long haul and believe it will pay off. Don't want to get too greedy. :)

    Once I do have more capital in the future then I'll just use any drop to accumulate more shares.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Canadian Solar (CSIQ) CEO Dr. Shawn Qu owns 30% of shares outstanding. Sound familiar?

    I can easily get behind a company that the CEO truly believes in.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SCTY just wont quit and RSOL is getting a 40% jump today.

    anyone else feeling a SCTY pull back at all?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't remember the exact number but CSIQ also has a fairly high short interest. Not what it was a year ago, but still fairly high. I think around 3M shares and a little over a day to cover.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If anyone was waiting to get in on JKS, this might be the time. Credit Suisse analyst just upgraded to $32, and the stock is 6% off it's intraday high an is sitting now at $24.66.

    If I wanted more JKS, I would be buying here. The odds are in the long's favor. Plus they are going to have a very profitable Q3, Q4, FY14, etc.

    That is all you can do is play the odds.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Anyone one else find it interesting that csiq is the only chinese solar company with jan 16 options. In fact, the only other solar company I can find that has jan 16 options is solar city. Furthermore, only a handful of companies have jan 15 options, with the majority of Chinese companies having only march or April as the furthest expiration date. I am heavily invested in csiq and would like additional exposure to jaso and jks, but it looks like the only choices are march, April 14 options vs. shares.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks for the tip sleepyhead, I went ahead and bought some more when the price was around $24.60.

    - - - Updated - - -

    CSIQ only had Apr14's, but a month ago they added the J15's and J16's. I don't know who decides to add these, but usually the "better" companies get these first.

    - - - Updated - - -

    After writing down my JKS comment, I quickly realized that it really is a good idea to buy some. So I found a way to get some capital and quickly bought in.

    I noticed that I have been giving good tips on this board and not always following them myself; almost always because I am already 100% invested and never have capital lying around.

    This time I couldn't pass up on the unwarranted mid-day pullback in JKS and capitalized on it.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm somewhat bothered that CSIQ has as max strike $22 for the Jan 2016, that's ATM and I'd rather buy some OTM calls. Also if it went up even more there's nothing to hedge with...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Tell me this was a joke :) Or at least serious level of irony for finally following your own advice ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It was a joke. I actually wrote the tip so that whoever was thinking about buying JKS at some point could now get in.

    Then I thought about it for a second and realized it really was a good time to buy JKS. So I bought some JKS about a minute after I posted the tip.

    Therefore, I took advantage of my own tip that I posted here. So I thanked myself :wink:

    Sorry, lack of sleep :tongue:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agree. For that very reason, I went with jan '15 30 strike leaps which I can hedge with 35 strikes if needed.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was looking at JKS sleepy and i just couldnt jump on it. I used the rest of my capital on JASO a couple days back when it was on the $9s. Sadly this upgrade came a day to early as my AMD money will be coming to me tomorrow and i could of hopped in JKS with it, like i was planning.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I know a lot of people on this board like the risk free delayed construct bull call spread strategy. With solar being so volatile, I wonder if a delayed construct straddle/strangle with LEAPS would be a successful strategy. Take csiq for example. Buy 1 jan 15 call at strike 30 and 1 jan 15 put at strike 15. Since solar and csiq are so volatile, one should be able to hedge both options for risk free, hence guaranteeing a profit as opposed to just breaking even. Thoughts?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Anyone buying/holding Mutual Funds who focus on Solar industry?
    I found Guggenheim Solar ETF (Symbol TAN) which holds 30 Solar stocks.

    Top Holdings has a few familiar names:
    1) HANERGY SOLAR GROUP LTD 6.8%
    2) SOLARCITY CORP 5.6%
    3) FIRST SOLAR INC 5.5%
    4) TRINA SOLAR LTD 5.2%
    5) GCL-POLY ENERGY HOLDINGS LTD 5.18%
    6) SUNPOWER CORP 4.9%
    7) CANADIAN SOLAR INC 4.88%

    I like the ability to gain exposure to so many individual companies in the sector.

    Thoughts?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, when I looked at my account this evening I realize that I have almost an equal amount of $ in solar (CSIQ, SCTY, and JKS) as in TSLA. I want to thank everyone on this thread for sharing their knowledge so freely. I am not 'all in' as I am saving a little buying power for a 10% TSLA pullback or 20% solar pullback.....neither of which may come.

    Al
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I got some at $24.60 also! I didn't even read your post as I was at work and I was too busy to read the forums. I was sneaking a peak at JKS all day and was sad I hadn't gotten in earlier but right when it was at that low point around $24.50 I decided that it was good as any other time to buy in (it was at where it gapped up to beginning of day). By the time I logged in to my brokerage the order executed at $24.60.

    I can't thank you for your post as I didn't see it! I wish I saw your post, because I would've bought 1000 shares instead of 500! I wasn't sure of myself but am quite pleased with how the rest of the day went!

    I will thank you though for all the research you share with us and your posts and everything else. My wife makes fun of me because I'm mentioning your posts all the time. I've learned a ton since I bought my first ever stock (TSLA) back in January. I'm even making the same trades as you now! ;) I know everyone else has been thanking you but I wanted to as well.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Haha. Same here. Have been looking at JKS all day and trying to find the right moment to buy in. Was away when I checked my phone (like I do a million times) and saw JKS down but just don't have the capital (or time) to buy some! I was actually thinking that if I was at my desk I'd probably post here and see if others also thought it was a good time to buy or if there was a reason for the pull back. Reading this now and seeing sleepy's advice makes me wish there was a better mobile version of this site so I could check it non stop even when I'm not at my desk :)

    Thanks for your posts sleepy. Really motivating me to spend more time and research solar.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Whew, I thought you were having a psychotic break.
    "This guy on TMC seems to have a good handle on solar stocks, but now he's talking to himself..." :biggrin:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    getting too much sun...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That joke I get! I was also worried about Sleepy...I almost sold all my solar thinking he had gone over to the 'dark side'
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If anyone cares I thought it was hilarious. Mostly because I feel like only a few of us take sleepy's advice and he's been driven crazy by newbies not buying when he recommends it and asking 50% gain later "is it too late now to buy?"

    I am such a newbie but I think I learned my lesson.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So true, thanks.

    I actually wrote the tip for someone to take advantage. Only after I wrote it did I realize that it is an excellent idea so I quickly bought myself on my own tip (if that makes sense).

    Therefore, the only reason I ended up buying JKS was because I put it in writing first. This made me realize that it was indeed a great idea.

    That is not to say that JKS will continue going up tomorrow and next week, but now the odds are significantly in the favor of the longs. And if you bought at $24.60 you already have a 6% cushion, which makes your odds exponentially better.

    Technically speaking, it is a buy as well. High volume breakout above $25 resistance, new 52-week high, analyst upgrade, higher highs, and lower lows.

    I hear that they might have a very good ER as well.

    I think this is the beginning of another mini run up for JKS before Q3.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sleepy,

    I am new to options and will be doing a lot of reading. In the mean while, I am looking to start positions in a number of solar stocks you had mentioned, specifically CSIQ, JASO and JKS. Could you give me an example options trade you would make with those companies or should I be buying the shares at today's prices and hold for the long run?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Check out tapatalk app - it is awesome (actually typing this message on it). Makes it following forums on the go super convenient.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I actually was thinking about looking for a similar ETF earlier....as I said before, I don't have the resources to follow every one of those stocks but I want to be exposed to the upside of the general "(chinese) solar" trend. This might be a lower risk strategy than trying to pick the winners in the sector and risking being affected by a single negative event.

    TAN looks pretty good. Any other options? I've never actually invested in an ETF. Do derivatives on ETFs have "different" rules than normal derivatives? Would love to hear some of the other guys commenting on this. Solar Master Sleepy's opinion?

    I believe in the commoditization of panels in the long run, that's why I like SCTY's story. But in the next 1-2 years at least, most of those producers will see big gains as demand goes up and supply grows at a slower pace.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow! Wasn't expecting that..... can't wait to hear the reason behind the NO.

    P.s. SCTY still on fire. Haven't placed my hedges back yet......
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    With TAN you get the good with the bad.

    I bought SPWR a while ago as well as TAN

    SPWR went down 30%, while TAN went down 50%.

    SPWR Recovered and went up 100%, while TAN still at a loss.

    Buy the Chinese Tier 1 companies if you want exposure. Buy the polysilicon companies, buy SCTY, buy SPWR.

    Do not buy microinverter companies.

    TAN gives you everything, so your panel manufacturer gains will be offset by microinverter losses.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I didn't read the article yet. The degradation calculation that we are trained to use is .5% (not 5%, that's a typo somewhere). There are rumors that they will be changing our calculation methods because most of what the field is seeing from modern panels is really closer to a .3% degradation. A .5% loss over 25 years means a 200w panel will be making 176w of power per hour. .3% = 185w, .2 = 190w.

    That being said, there is no doubt in my mind that SPWR panels are the best in the world. Are they worth the premium to the end consumer? For some yes, for others no.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sleepy what your take on SPWR action today. I was looking at the charts and as far as the "cup" goes, 25-32 was the highs and lows of the support level on the way down in 09. So are we looking at a break out to $40? (pending what impact earnings has)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    sleepy -
    TAN is up over 100% this year and at an all time high. Confusing that you say it has not recoverd.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    In the solar realm 100% gain this year is extremely poor. Csiq was $2 11 months ago. That's a 1000% gain in less than a year. Tsl 650% gain. I would be really disappointed in a 100% solar stock gain this year. Besides, don't managed funds charge administration fees?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's an ETF- management fees are relatively small (compared to mutual funds), but to your point still a consideration. I have a little TAN carried in a mix of Industry ETFs (I used it as a replacement for the Energy ETF category). In my opinion it should be viewed as a long term baseline belief in Solar that carries less risk (and reward) than individual names. To sleepy's point, I don't use it as a replacement for investment in these names- I'm currently heavy long in stock and LEAPS for SCTY, SPWR (equal), CSIQ (half of those), and a little JKS for pure Chinese exposure. These are different investments than TAN with different goals, risks, and belief systems.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Any info on what hit SOL today? I'm not seeing any news that looks particularly negative.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    Careful how you read comments. He said that SPWR recovered and then doubled and that TAN was still at a loss. That does not mean that the time period ended today. Clearly since that time, TAN has done well to reach an all time high, but perhaps SPWR has done even better. Why not plot SPWR against TAN to see for yourself how they have fared.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It is my fault... I bought some today... my kind of luck..

    I also was not able to find any news.

    just found something on yahoo board

    "Earning estimate for this Q has been revised down to -20c vs -14c, while next Q
    is -4c vs +1c.
    Full year 2014 is also down vs last estimated."

    trying to validate it.

    - - - Updated - - -

    apparently this some analyst estimate on yahoo finance.

    Sleepy, your feedback on this will be appreciated.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Dq 25% scty 10% spwr and csiq 5% holy **** its taking off
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    FSLR also up about 8%. I believe it's on news that Icahn will announce he's a stake holder. Not sure why the pop for the others. But am slowing increasing my exposure to SPWR and CSIQ mainly.

    The more I read about solar the more excited I get. It really is an industry waiting to boom. This makes me feel not so bad about chasing some of these players b/c I think a couple percentage points here and there won't make a difference in the long run. Also, any options plays I'm making is also at least a couple of months out. It's just tough figuring out where to best allocate capital b/c there are at least a handful of solid companies.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I know most of you are doing short positions. But would anyone say doing a long term stock purchase on CSIQ be a bad idea?

    (I realize no one has crystal balls and can see the future)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SCTY is up almost 10% and flirting with 60$..... I was wondering if today's growth could be driven by shorts closing their positions before the weekend to limit their losses. On 9/30/2013 there were 6,843,688 shares sold short requiring 1.882569 days to cover. However that was assuming a daily volume of less than 4mil shares....well below the number of shares traded in the last few days.... so those are actually a lot of new investors getting into SCTY at high 50$. That should form a nice solid base for the stock going forward and limit the profit taking pullback.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not sure why you think most people are doing short positions. I think several people here have mentioned, and I agree, that the best strategy is buy and hold/long term. Short term there are risks and volatility, but there is huge long term potential as long as the economy is ok (ie. no recession).

    I've been buying CSIQ as a long term investment (at least 1 year).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Fair enough, I may have gotten the wrong idea. I have been thinking about picking up CSIQ and JKS because they seem to be performing well. And like many of you I agree that the solar industry is going to grow in the future.

    Thanks for the input!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I sold about a quarter of my position in SCTY today. It was getting too large and I want to redeploy some of my gains there into other solar stocks to get a little more diversified. Right now I'm holding just SCTY and SPWR. If you could only have one more solar stock to round things out, which one would you choose and why?
    �
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