Chủ Nhật, 30 tháng 10, 2016

Alternative Energy Investor Discussions part 16

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I wouldn't say that because they could surprise in coming quarters with higher-than-expected gross margin, higher earnings, or even a bigger pipeline of projects. They also have a high short interest. So, the stock could move (in either direction) based off of sentiment and momentum.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Any reason for the short interest? They're making money and even if they don't have big growth, they don't look in danger of dying.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm not sure. But there was a time not too long ago where it seemed solar was stagnant and lots of solar companies would go bankrupt because of debt and oversupply. It's likely shorts aren't impressed by solar's future (ie, they're loyal to coal and natural gas).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The stock will not stay flat and then start to grow quickly. The market prices these things in gradually, so I expect a steady climb for SPWR to the $40-$50 range next year and then $60 two years from now if they execute on their strategy. If you wait till next year to buy SPWR then you will probably have to pay more for the stock, and it is not likely that the stock will start going crazy next year. SPWR is becoming a more mature company and the easy money was to be made this year.

    If SPWR does reach $60 in 2 years, that is still an awesome result because stocks don't normally double every two years.

    In the short run there might be a big pullback in SPWR, but I am not sure that is actually going to happen. I liked the results a lot, the only thing I am disappointed in is that the growth will not come super fast, so the stock probably won't double in the next few months. The company will grow gradually and so will the stock price.

    People dismissed a lot of other important factors they mentioned on the CC. E.g. someone asked why residential leases are slowing down and SPWR answered that basically they can pick and choose where to send the panels, and they want to be geographically diversified. So you have to remember that there are positive sides of being sold out, such as charging more, and having the opportunity to decide whom to sell the panels and/or systems.

    They also mentioned on the call that they will be doing more C7's next year; and this makes a lot of sense to me. Even though they have 1.2GW of capacity, they could hypothetically get close to 5GW thanks to their concentrated product. Since they are maxed out, why not push for more C7 sales. If only 10% of their panels go into C7 next year, then instead of 1.3GW's, you will get 1.7GW's. Don't know if 10% is doable (for 500MW after concentration), probably not next year, but if they really push the product there is still a lot of high growth that can happen in a short period of time.

    Overall, I see this CC as very positive for the buy and hold investor. SPWR is profitable at $1.5/share this year. Unfortunately, they gave low guidance for 2014 of "at least $1/share". Since they are sold out and made $1.50 this year, I would hope that they can do at least $2 next year. Sandbagging will not help the stock price in the near future, but does prevent bubble-like pricing, so that is a good thing for shareholders.

    They also had (on their May analyst day presentation) a goal to reduce x-series panel costs by 35% by 2015 and to make them 5%-10% more efficient. That should give them a good GM boost especially since ASP's have stopped going down worldwide. Cost cutting alone should help the bottom line next year, since they even said that they exceeded their cost cutting targets for Q3; as they always do.

    It is still a growth stock in a growth industry. They said that they reached over $200m of positive cash flow in the first 9 months of this year, with a weaker Q1. So they can probably do $300m - $400m free cash flow in 2014. The new fab4 will only cost them $200m, so they could build two new ones with the cash they make next if they needed to (of course this won't happen, but just shows how easy it is for them to grow with internally generated cash).

    One thing is for sure, and that is: solar is the future. I like SPWR a lot and I think it is a great buy for the buy and hold investor. SPWR was able to achieve all this in a year where global demand will be ~37GW, and the first half had soft industry conditions. Next year demand estimates are showing 45GW - 55GW, and these are based on what individual countries have targets for. The demand estimate for 2013 was as little as 31GW just 6 months ago, now it is up to 37GW. No telling what next year's demand will actually turn out to be, but as long as the global economy continues to expand, I think that 45GW will turn out to be too low.

    - - - Updated - - -

    The difference between SPWR and TSLA is that TSLA is expected to grow at 100% per year and is priced for that growth rate. If TSLA only grows 80% per year, the stock might go down a lot. Whereas SPWR is priced to grow 15%-20% per year. If they can deliver 30% growth, the stock might double in a short period of time.

    Numbers are only for illustrative purposes, but my point is that many people here got spoiled by TSLA the stock and the company's growth rates, that they are quick to dismiss any company that isn't growing at a 50%+ annual rate.

    All growth stocks are priced according to the markets expectations of that growth. If you think that a company can exceed the market's growth assumption then you should invest in that company. I think that SPWR has a better chance of exceeding the market's growth assumption than TSLA does. And I like TSLA a lot, so I like SPWR a little more.

    SPWR is trading on 20X this years earnings. The S&P is now around 16x this years earnings. TSLA is still trading on 100x next year's earnings (will probably turn out to be a little less in reality, but that is analyst consensus). So even though SPWR has a slight growth premium built into the stock price, it really isn't that big of a premium. As long as they execute there will be a floor on the stock price. I am still very bullish on the company and the industry.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks sleepyhead. Sounds good. My Nov16th options are going to hurt since SPWR is down heavily premarket. I bought the options a few weeks ago and without looking at when the earnings call was at the time, so they purchased weren't with that purpose. At the time I was under the confusion that a "short term" option meant weeklies, so I bought a "longer term" option at about 5-6 weeks out. Not nearly long enough, but I didn't realize what people meant by short and long term when it comes to options at that point.

    I've got til the 16th, so hopefully SPWR will rise when solar in general spikes and I can get out with enough to make it worth reevaluating for a stock/LEAP purchase. Doing that for all my options I suppose.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    In reading the CC, the CEO mentioned several times they prefer markets with few subsides and no favorable policy. It seems the US is slower to catch on to solar than the rest of the world. I'm guessing this is due in part to having cheaper coal and in part solar has a stigma of being expensive and for greenies. It will be interesting to see when that perception changes in the US.

    Thanks for the great insight, Sleepy.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well thanks to SPWR report and mixed feelings by Wall str, the whole solar sector is suffering today :) Stocks are down -2..-10% across the board.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yea, disappointing. Timing is everything. If I'd gotten in 6 weeks ago around 9/20 then the last couple weeks of steady decline would just be unfortunate, but options would all be well in the green. I got in just 10 days later and given the premiums it's a very different picture. Unless you've got some sort of inside info, it really highlights how pointless it is to time the market.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well I used many of Sleepys good entry ideas where we had confirmation of breakout about to happen (got in CSIQ just as the $16.5 was broken). So I do have some like SCTY and CSIQ that are still nicely in the green as well as some that are relatively flat (SOL, STRI) and some of course where I could have entered earlier (JASO, JKS) and now got some small loss in SPWR, but overall my solar holdings (all options, all LEAPs or March 2014) are in the green because SCTY and CSIQ are my biggest holdings and third biggest SPWR is right now only slightly in the red (got in early enough).

    I'm far far more in the red with TSLA various options and have to just hope that we get to $190 post ER to get into green.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    TSLA options are about 1/2 of my short term investment money. Amusingly enough, part of why I diversified into multiple solar options (and KNDI) rather than just Tesla was to diversify so that I wouldn't lose all my short term investment money if TSLA turned south. Yes, that was a cunning plan :rolleyes:

    JKS seems to be bucking the solar trend today.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    i bought some more JASO this morning with the cash i pulled out of SPWR yesterday.

    playing with the idea of dropping a large chunk of capitol (for me)on SOL stock. it should at least double in a year's time. Then i can play with covered options on the side
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So my 50/50 goal was reached a few days ago but not in the way I had intended it to happen. Tsla has dropped more than my solar holdings so now I have more solar than tesla.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That is the beauty of diversification. Keep us updated on how the proportions change over time.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    I am very positive on SPWR after skimming the earnings. I sold in the money puts out a few months- i think it will recover what it has lost, i think it will be trading around 34 until the next earnings. (dec 33 puts for 4.85 if anyone cares)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I liked the earnings too. Everybody is focusing on the "soft" guidance. Whoopydoo! They always give soft guidance:

    Q2 guided towards $0.05-0.20 EPS. Actual $0.48

    Q3 guided towards $0.15-0.35 EPS. Actual $0.44

    Q4 guided towards $0.15-0.35 EPS. Actual...

    I think you get the drift.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Massive strengt here, SPWR might end up in the green today if this continues..
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree with most of what the author writes. I think SPWR is one of the strongest solar players out there and will likely continue to grow as solar grows. The two items of concern for me long-term for SPWR that might limit their growth is:
    1. Lack of market focus - as the author points out, they're in utility, commercial and residential. I'd say that it's tough to do all those markets well. On the flip side, they could pull resources toward the markets that do well.
    2. Lack of super high-growth - capacity limits them and while expanding to Fab4 helps increase capacity by 35%, it still won't be realized until 3 years from now. It's tough to give a very high multiple to a company that's restrained in growth.

    These two reasons are why I'm more bullish on SCTY long-term. SCTY is one of the most focused solar companies out there. They're focused on the residential market in the U.S. in the states where it makes the most economical sense to go solar right now (and they're expanding as the value proposition for solar grows with reduced costs). Eventually, they'll go international IMO but to scale a company I prefer the initial laser focus approach that SCTY has. It shows a lot of promise. Also, SCTY is growing installs at a 100% YOY rate and will likely continue this growth rate over the next few years. This is truly amazing. And they claim they're on a path to get 1 million customers within 5 years. SPWR, FSLR, Tier 1 Chinese solars - nobody can match the growth rate of SCTY, or even come close. In the short and mid-term, who knows where SCTY will trade because it'll be volatile as the whole solar industry tends to be. But I'm bullish long-term on solar and while I think SPWR and others will do well, I just think SCTY is in a different league.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    i feel dumb for selling my FSLR at loss this morning thinking it would tank with tonight earnings, bought an extra 200 shares after hours, tomorrow (and the following weeks) are looking green for solar again. SPWR up 2% AH too!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nice win for FSLR
    Sleepy i know we dont fallow FSLR much due to their tech and larger market cap, but do you think this push above 50 might start a cup break out?
    Options are priced pretty high for big run this coming year
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I find it funny that we think almost exactly alike on TSLA but have opposite views on solar; that is the great thing about the stock market, it keeps score to see who was right. Where you see weakness, I see strength and vice versa:

    1. You say "lack of market focus", I say "diverse strategy that allows flexibility to take advantage of market economics." As you heard on the SPWR CC, when CEO was asked why residential leases went down QoQ, he said because they chose to go elsewhere with their panels. They are able to decide what market gives them the best economics and quickly shift focus to take advantage of short-term market conditions. They can go from country to country, or they can go from residential to commercial to utility scale. Look at Renesola: they had 13% of sales from the US in Q2 and are projecting 33% from US in Q3, that is how quickly they were able to shift to take advantage of higher ASP's in the US.

    2. Growth for SCTY is already priced in. They are going to deploy under 300MW's this year and 450 next year, but they have a higher market cap than SPWR of 4.5b (plus whatever dilution the recent secondary will bring). Jinko Solar has a market cap that is 8x smaller, yet will deploy 3x as much MW's. Same goes for all other Chinese solars.

    You also tend to ignore the big risks for SCTY, such:

    -Net metering going away
    -30% federal tax credit going away beginning 2016
    -Their need to borrow $billions to finance their operations if not tens of $billions per year as they grow.
    -Panel shortage coming up in 2014, which will lead to higher ASP's. SCTY will either have to pay more or buy from less reputable sources.
    -How long will these Chinese panels really last? SCTY is banking that they will last more than 20 years, but it is unproven technology that has only been out a few years. If all of these panels start to fall apart after 10 years then the company will go bankrupt. They are putting a lot of faith into Chinese manufacturing. SPWR panels on the other hand are of highest quality and will last the longest with least amount of degradation.
    -Companies are coming out with $0 down solar purchases instead of leases. Why somebody would want to lease a system is beyond my comprehension. Not only do you give all of the financial benefit to SCTY, but it also becomes a huge liability when you sell your house.

    I have read an article just the other day that says that the Chinese manufacturers are deciding not to send panels to the US in current Q4, because there is so much demand for solar in China that they are shipping everything locally. Projects have to be completed by year end to take advantage of FIT. Chinese demand will be high enough in 2014 to soak up 50% of tier 1 panel supply. What if China decides to install more PV? There will be nothing left for SCTY.

    And last of all, I still can't get around SCTY's valuation. It is already pricing in 2017 or 2020 installations, but there is no certainty that the company will be able to grow that fast. It is kind of like TSLA, but with TSLA there is much less uncertainty.

    I just don't see SCTY as a great risk/reward play. There is a good chance that you will turn out to be right on SCTY, but there is just way too much risk in my opinion. There are many smart people that think SCTY's business model will not thrive in 5 years. I know that SPWR is a lot lower risk and still has potential for great return. In my opinion SPWR is the best risk/reward play in the solar sector. The Chinese stocks are good if you want to make a quick buck, but don't mind losing 30% in a few days every now and then. SCTY, might just turn out to be a $20bn market cap in 2020, but it might go to $0 as well. SPWR might get to $10b - $15b in 2020, but it will not go to $0; and I am fairly certain it will be above today's price unless their is a technological advancement that makes them obsolete; but by that time they will have enough cash to take advantage of new technologies.

    I just see SPWR as a much safer play that could still yield very high rewards over the next few years.

    I can kind of see the cup with handle that you are talking about, but FSLR needs to go up 15% to break out of it, and as much as I would like to see that happen tomorrow, it probably won't. But if we have a strong follow-up week next week then it can happen. FSLR is up 7.5% AH, but tomorrow is a whole new day; I actually wouldn't be surprised to see this stock go up 15%-20% tomorrow. I would be a buyer if I were sitting on the sidelines. Icahn must be happy.

    But with great results from SPWR and great results from FSLR, I feel like this might be the start of another solar rally. I just hope that the general market doesn't decide to correct after this rally we had. I think that when you combine FSLR's and SPWR's earnings the market will definitely take notice and I wouldn't be surprised to see some institutional money start pouring in to this sector over the next few days. I am hopeful that CSIQ decides to announce earnings next week, because they are going to be great as well; that would really light a fire under these solar stocks.

    I would like to hear what the analysts have to say on SPWR and FSLR earnings. Can someone please post some of the analyst comments here if you have access to them?

    I am bullish all the way on solar, and it is only getting started.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hey sleepyhead, would love to ask you some more in-depth questions via video chat (ie., Google hangout). Would you be available this weekend (maybe Sun evening?)? We could share the hangout url with folks here as well so they can join in.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Please do share!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    indeed, it would be great.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Definitely :)

    I would be interested in this as well.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    +1 i am am not busy
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    CSIQ touched $25.5 premarket because of the 100MW plant announcement?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    All solars up, and the only catalyst I can see was FSLR's ER. CSIQ is riding higher than the rest though.

    +1 for an evening with DaveT and Sleepyhead, I'll be busy carving a pumpkin.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The solars seem to move in a herd (school? pack?). Big hugs to the CSIQ in my portfolio as it typically drops the least and rises the most. It's my favorite of my solar children. Don't tell the others.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Fixed it for you. Glad I stuck to shares for CSIQ and SPWR. My soon to expire JASO calls are being put up for adoption.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    CSIQ is a monster
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Alternative Energy Investor Discussions (formerly SCTY thread)

    Got CSIQ Jan 15 $35 calls two days ago. On that day it was down 9% when I bought in. No-brainer.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Why is Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ) considered a Chinese company?

    I have been researching it and although it does have the bulk of its manufacturing done in China, its head office is in Guelph, Ontario and it was founded in Toronto, Ontario. Even on its own website (Overview) it says "Canadian Solar is a Canadian Company with Global Reach". The site of manufacturing doesn't equate to the country of origin of a company (ie. Nike is not considered a Chinese company). Maybe it doesn't really matter much, but I am Canadian and grew up in Guelph so there is an element of pride for me! :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I asked this same question recently but didn't see an answer. I'd be interested to hear from sleepy on this one.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    DaveT - send me a pm with your gmail, so that we can exchange info.

    I am actually going to Miami tomorrow for the whole week, so I am not sure if I will be able to sit down and chat. We can try to do it this Sunday, but I can't commit yet.

    Next Sunday would be better, but if you wanted to talk TSLA as well then it will be better to do it now obviously. I might be able to work something out, will see once I get there tomorrow.

    As far as SCTY goes, I am not saying that it will fail. I never really researched the company in depth, because I think it is too risky, volatile, unpredictable, and impossible to value. You know a lot more about SCTY than anyone here, so I am sure that you have a great grasp on their opportunities.

    I only have a limited amount of time to devote my research to, so I made a conscious choice to stay away from SCTY (for the reasons I mentioned) and from FSLR, since I am not a fan of their technology. To be honest both of these companies are one-trick ponies and I prefer the more diverse crystalline module producers, power plant builders, residential and commercial suppliers, etc.

    I made a conscious choice because that is where I think the future will be. SCTY may still turn out to be the biggest winner, but I feel that the other stocks are a lot safer. Ben Kallo from Baird also thinks that SPWR is the best choice. So does Travis Hoium from Motley Fool, who has been on top of solar this whole year.

    Quite frankly if I wanted to win our bet, I would have chosen CSIQ or JKS. I am 90% sure that those two stocks will have a greater return than SCTY. I am only 70% sure that SPWR will, but SPWR vs. SCTY is more fair and can go either way.

    - - - Updated - - -

    FSLR finished up 17.5%, and that is what I thought it deserved; the ER was good for a 5% gain, but the 250 MW power plant sale is what really mattered and that accounted for at least 10%, since it shows that FSLR can sign new big power plant deals. I actually didn't think that the market would take it that far, but I am glad it did (even though I don't have any FSLR exposure). It deserves a much higher valuation than it currently has.

    The media got this one completely wrong imo, since they focused on the ER results instead of what really matters. The market was giving FSLR a low PE of 10x, because it didn't believe that FSLR can get competitive deals in the future. That it was clearing out its backlog and would run out of projects eventually. It will probably now go to a more respectable PE of 16x - 20x within the next year; especially if it can sign more deals.

    Let's hope that SCTY has great results next week.

    Great times ahead for solar. I am really excited about the future. Feels a lot better than investing in XOM (a company in a dying industry), PM (a company that helps people die), FB (a company with a dying share price), or BBY (a dying company). The outsized returns just make you feel even better.

    The solar train is about to leave the station.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    CSIQ = awesomeness

    Then I looked at JASO. What happened here? Did somebody fat finger? nezyhu4y.jpg
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Alternative Energy Investor Discussions (formerly SCTY thread)

    Wow. Csiq's preliminary report is fantastic! They doubled their gross margins!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    lets how for good guidance during the report. just because results are good doesnt mean they wont mess up guidance and still tank the stock during the ER
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    JASO seems to have pretty good momentum as well. Now if only SOL would wake up.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Pre-market:

    CSIQ: +5.6%
    JASO: +3%
    JKS: +4.3%
    SCTY: +2.8%
    SOL: +4%
    SPWR: +3.3%
    FSLR: +1%

    At least the pre-market is looking nice and green ;) That's the list of stocks I hold my eye on and most have some stake in them as well.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Pre-earnings report? Are you joking?

    I sold half my CSIQ on Friday to strengthen my TSLA earnings play, so of course on Monday they would announce pre-earnings haha. At least I still have half :)

    But seriously, who does that? Pre-earnings?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Man... why am I missing out on the CSIQ train... oh right tomorrow is Nov. 5
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And BOOM.

    Good day to be long SCTY and CSIQ......
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good day to be long in any Solar pretty much ;) Half of my portfolios gains today are from Solar sector where I have only one third of my initial portfolio invested. The other half is TSLA recovery ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Feeling good about that lot of CSIQ Jan14 25's I bought at $1.45 :biggrin: Thanks Sleepy et. al.

    Since they released a preliminary report that looks very positive, is the good report already baked into the price? Or should we still see another jump after the report?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SCTY is up on the financing deal they just announced. I don't think the market understands just how well the Musk family can get creative about financing. Or maybe it's all Elon, but in any case, it's like the third or fourth string to his bow, after creativity, engineering and execution.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SCTY just needs to secure a good stream of financing deals and supplies.......... demand doesn't sound like much of a problem right now so everytime one of those barriers fall a little the stock soars.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Solar City can be hurt by one thing, and it shouldn't be glossed over: Net-Metering Policy reform.

    I havent seen it discussed much as one of the risks as investing in Solar City.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Man... at what point would I get in.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    At this point all I can say is "thanks Sleepy!"

    I have always been a bull in solar but because of your fantastic in depth analysis I became a huge bull.

    If zoning would let me (I'm already maxed out with what they allow on the ground) I could put in enough solar to power our Tesla 100% from today's paper gains. :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Absolutely.....but will it really be a factor in the long run? Also I don't see it happening any time soon.... some lobbies might push for it....but any change would face strong opposition from the public (I think/hope).
    I think the worst case scenario is that the prices for reselling the energy are lowered a bit (probably is fair after all)... but nothing more than that. Would you agree?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    I think it's also worth mentioning that with the acquisition of Zep Solar, it looks like as SCTY grows they will be trying to diversify away some of their risk. I wouldn't be surprised to see more strategic moves in the near future that will diversify away risk associated with residential leasing.

    Thanks again, Sleepy.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't think the pre-earnings report is "baked in" the stock price. I think CSIQ will go up on the earnings annoucement on the 13th.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree if they get guidance correct.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looks like CSIQ is stuck at $29... Made several attempts to break it
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Does anyone hold JKS ? I got in when all solar stocks tanked 20-25% last week and looking at 18% profit now, wondering if I should take the money and exit. @ 26
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    wow.....my portfolio is up 30%......and I still see some upside as all the ERs come in......thanks to all the contributors to this section (especially you, sleepy....as always).... and congrats to all who have had the courage to pull the trigger during difficult times.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have some- bought at $24.85 just before the dip unfortunately. I'm holding long term along with all solar positions- but in fairness this is just a small stock position; can't advise well on the exit strategies for cycle plays
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I just sold at 25.85, it may go higher pre ER but I thought 18% was good enough for me for my first play in solar.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You were holding stock? That was a bad move. Buy and hold would of netted out alot more in a year in the long run.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I picked up some last week on the unexplainable dip and sold today for 18% over the week, new to solar, and I don't trade options(yet, limited understanding but learning slowly). Could have held long but my limited understanding of the chinese solar stocks made me decide otherwise..
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Can't complain about taking profits. That's 18% more than you had before and it's solid. Awesome job!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    @Sleepy,
    Do you think CSIQ will break $30 on earnings.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SCTY is almost up 20%.....this recent run up has been great....but this is a bit too fast for my taste.....could this be driven by a short squeeze?

    The company should have less than 10% of short interest...7,329,674 shares are sold short vs "Shares Outstanding (M) 82.19" (source nasdaq & yahoo). I'm not sure how much of it is owned by the Musks and other insiders who are presumably in it for the long run and reduce the float.

    Earnings are in 2 days... and SCTY will probably feel the effects of TSLA's ER.... a lot of volatility ahead.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SPWR down 10% in after hours, completely erasing today's gains. Anyone have any clue why?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not sure what you're smoking, must be good, haha. Yahoo still has it green, up 14cents. Probably a glitch on your site.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Google finance earlier showerd -10%
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yup, just looked at NASDAQ's site.

    Some poor sap sold 600 shares at $30.87
    Sucks to be him. Its back to where it should be now.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Probably a late trade from earlier in the day, right?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I dont know how many of you are still in JASO but after looking at today's chart, tomorrow could get ridiculous. Sleepy's $11 breakout level is looking like a heavy one. That is all.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I've got some whimsical calls I've been trying to offload to no avail. I'm no chartist though, can you explain why JASO at the $11 breakout level is so significant? I'll check some of sleepy's posts/blog in the meantime.

    For the record, these calls are an insignificant amount of my portfolio. I went heavy on shares for CSIQ and SPWR for my solar plays.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Read up on Sleepy's blog for the full story.

    Nutshell: $11 is the rounded breakout point. It gets through $11 on high volume and moves up convincingly from the $11 point it will signal a breakout and the algros might jump in on the stock like mad.

    It broke it a few weeks back the day before the solar sector took a multi day hit, so it never had a chance to fully materialize.
    With the above average volume today and the $11 holding very strong, a break out through it should be a pretty large move upwards since the resistance is so strong.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    While I am mostly long on SCTY, JKS, and CSIQ...I do have March $14 call options on JASO..and am looking forward to a potential breakout. Those calls were cheap but are still slightly 'in the red'.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Probably a newbie placing a market order after hours.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I talked about this several times (most recently on Friday, just about 4 pages back in a "megapost"), but everyone always ignores the topic. For this reason (as well as other risks) I ignore SCTY. Whether I am right or wrong, I really don't care (other than I want the $1 from DaveT) because there are a lot of safer plays in solar imo.

    I think so too. When you pre-announce bad news you spill all the beans. When you pre-announce good earnings, you only give half the story.

    Guidance should be really, really good. The only potential negative might be if they guide towards slightly lower gross margin than what they achieved in Q3. But that is no reason for a sell-off; the market isn't that stupid. They went from 12% to 20%, so if they guide towards 18% then the market should be extremely happy. There is no fast rule that you have to grow every quarter. They will grow MW's shipped significantly in Q4.

    Great job on your short term trade. I would have held on. Their Q3 will be really good: 20%+ gross margin and $0.50 EPS. Stock is cheap, but Wall St. has no clue.

    Considering that on Oct. 3 I put 5% of my portfolio into the Nov. $28 calls at $0.31 when CSIQ was at $19, and the next day I put 10% of my portfolio into Nov. $29 calls at $0.29. Then a week later I opened a new portfolio (after taking out a loan against my 401k) and immediately put 15% of it into CSIQ Nov. $27 calls at $0.32 with CSIQ still at $19. I sold a little bit of those positions (but only to buy some TSLA options today and yesterday) but still have a good majority and plan on holding till next week.

    So I would say that my investment thesis hasn't changed since last month. CSIQ is still undervalued. It might cross $30 tomorrow. It might also go back to $26, but that will only create a buying opportunity for those who missed.

    I am not a fan of discussing after hour trades at all (cause for unwarranted panic or euphoria) unless it is based on a news story or event and has very high volume. Other than than pre-market a few minutes before market open has some value.

    The new breakout target is $11.60, so it has to go above $11.70 on high volume. JASO will not double just because the chart says so. It will need some kind of great news, such as a pre-announcement or great ER. Breakout plays need catalysts and JASO has been sitting too quiet. This is the time to be accumulating and wait patiently. It might not happen until early 2014, but it might happen tomorrow. I would rather be in early and have a huge exposure to JASO; about 25% of my portfolios. It's day will come and I am very patient.

    Because it worked for every other solar stock this year. It will work for JASO as well unless their is some kind of black swan, extreme bad luck or mgmt. incompetence.

    If you have Dec or better yet March or June calls then hang on tight. If they are Nov. calls then you are gambling by buying them (even Dec is gambling, but gives you one ER to play with).

    This.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sleepyhead, how do you decide on what strike price to get? Buying CSIQ $29 when it's at $19 is obviously expecting huge movement in a pretty small time frame.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Lots and lots of research. And then some more research. Experience working as an analyst in investment banking on different continents. Financial training and certifications. Education, MBA courses in running a hedge fund, investment theory and practice, etc. Bachelors and masters degree in accounting to be able to read financial statements and to interpret data. Very good math skills are a must as well; most importantly the ability to perform complex math equations in your head instantly without making any errors (that can cost you a lot of money); probably most important skill to have if you want to take advantage of of very short but irrational market movements.

    And then do a lot more research. Find out what Wall St. knows, and then figure out how long it will take them to figure out the truth (in this case on solar). What will be the catalyst or catalysts? Why now? Why haven't they figured it out last month, what makes you so sure they will figure it out this time around?

    Understand the global economy, politics (ugh), and know where the markets are going to go in the near future. Why does Nikkei tank when Bernanke farts? You have to have a grasp on global markets. Read, read, read. Analyze data. Why did x cause y?

    You have to come up with a solid investment thesis based on your research with iron clad evidence, believe in your story and then develop an investment strategy; one that is flexible that allows you to react to changing market conditions. Know your exit strategies. And then stick to your strategy no matter what.

    Be prepared to have an exit if it turns out you are wrong. What to do if it is taking Wall St. a lot longer to figure it out than you thought it would take? How to stay rational when markets are irrational? Live to fight another day if you are wrong. Re-group and then remind yourself of your strategy and stick to it. Continue executing no matter how hard it may seem. The moment you abandon your strategy you will lose.

    And then you will need a ton of luck when playing options. No matter how much you know, the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. You will need a ton of luck when playing options. Market timing skills are critical (but allegedly nobody has such skills).

    CSIQ can still go down 5% by the end of next week and I will lose all of the money invested in those options. I took enough profits that I made a big return already, but my other huge paper profits can get wiped out by a measly 5% move over the next 2 weeks. You need a lot of luck.

    I can't tell you which options to buy, what strike price or what expiration month. Everybody's investment strategy and style is different and everybody should be buying different options based on their style.

    You have to come up with an investment style that matches your personality. Otherwise you will fail. If you buy the same options that I do, we will have completely different results since your strategy is completely different than mine. That even happened two weeks ago. I bought some TSLA weeklies and someone on TMC followed me into the trade. I made a 50% return in an hour and cashed out (very luckily at the top) and the other person lost all of his investment at market close (it was expiration day).

    Read, read, read. Look at DaveT and how much he reads. He reads books on investing. I read articles on companies, blogs, Chinese websites, forums, etc. We both read company press releases and official documents. He reads prospectuses, and other boring documents which would put me to sleep. I look at charts and examine the past. But we both read a lot, and have our own investment styles based on our personalities.

    I look at a lot of charts and use technical analysis. I don't know what a MACD is and can't be bothered to find out. I don't use SMA's or bollinger bands hardly at all. I don't use any technical indicators, but still read charts my own way that I developed myself with experience. I experiment a lot in the markets. And treat my brokerage account balance like monopoly money in order to make correct investment decisions no matter how hard they are.

    Sell when others are greedy and buy when everyone is fearful; especially when you have a really, really bad feeling you should be buying and taking on a lot of risk when things are looking really ugly. Have a plan to buy more when things get uglier; be able to raise capital quickly. Plan for these things in advance. Don't be afraid to take profits.

    And then you still need a lot of luck.

    Nobody can tell you what options to buy. You have to determine that on your own based on your investment strategy.

    Sorry if this wasn't helpful. But my point is that you have to treat it like a full-time job if you want to be successful. I am still learning and nowhere near successful yet. I have had a lot of luck recently, but that streak will reverse in the future; and you have to be prepared for that mentally. But if I stick to my strategy, I should be ok. As long as the brokerage balance is trending in the right direction, you are doing something right.

    It really requires a lot of luck assuming that you know the company, industry, and global economy inside and out. If you don't have a good grasp on all three things then you shouldn't be buying options because you are just gambling.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I got in JASO along with JKS last week after reading sleepyhead's blog (thanks for all the informative posts and knowledge/experience sharing). Sold JKS today at 18%, still holding JASO and up 8% over the week. I have an relatively small amount in JASO and not eyeing a long term position for now, if I get ~20% upside, I am out
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If you get 20% upside then you are looking at a ~$12.20 stock price and will probably turn out to be the worst time to sell as the stock takes off from there. But 20% in the bank is better than hoping for more that might never materialize.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks sleepyhead. Sounds sort of like the equivalent of the answer I gave a junior engineer when he asked how I decide to breakdown a software design. Experience, education, and tons of time studying the domain.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Use your engineering knowledge to gain an edge in the markets. Find some engineering companies, ideas, solutions, products, etc. that will transform the world. Be an early visionary and then invest in the company and stick to your strategy. Continually evaluate that company to make sure that your fundamental thesis hasn't changed and stick to it until the market finally figures it out.

    That is how I started with solar. In spring 2012 I started studying solar and SPWR significantly. I quickly realized the huge opportunity so I bought SPWR. For the next 6 months I kept buying on the way down as SPWR went from $7 to $3.90. I kept buying, because I knew I would be right and didn't care how long it would take before proven correct, because I knew the stock was so cheap that I will get rewarded handsomely eventually (this is the case with JASO right now imo). My 401k was down in 2012 by 18% because of this, while the S&P 500 had a stellar year. I didn't care because I was getting a lot of SPWR shares really cheap. This year my 401k is up 400%, because I was patient and stuck to my strategy.

    Use your skills to find opportunities in the market. With your engineering skills you have an opportunity to exploit industries that I could only dream of understanding (and that is why I ignore them).

    Use your strengths to gain an edge in the market.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks Sleepy...always love the rational/solvent quote and the Buffett fear/greed. I also appreciate that you encourage people to go to the beach and enjoy the same sun that shone on their portfolios today. Take in a show...don't check stock quotes for hours....or minutes....or days.

    October was my reversal....went into it up 1500% since May all in Tesla....exited up 1000%..finally discovered this alternative energy thread - and CSIQ & SPWR & JKS (and SCTY :wink:). Followed your leads and dove deep. Bought JKS shares at 25.1, rode down 20% then bought June 2014 options and rode back up. Bought SPWR options pre-earnings, rode down, read the report and listened to the conference call then doubled down on my Jan 2015 calls at the bottom. I appreciate your thoughtful greed and your educated disdain for "analysts". I am beginning to suss out my own rules...weeklies are for rubes and a quick way to offset large short-term capital gains...investments that make you money that you can believe in are the best revenge...there are advantages to independent research and crowd sourcing thoughts and ideas.

    In addition to my core shares I bought a small 10 contract Jan 15 Tesla option today around 10am. I'm not as sanguine as you about Q3 earnings, mainly because of the ZEV credits Tesla carried over in the October report....but watch out for Q4.

    Thanks for your posts, your thoughts and your observations that go beyond....should I buy a_____call @ ______ for ____. I hope you have a great vacation and may the sun continue to shine on your efforts...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    CSIQ did $29.5 pre-market and is now back to $29. Would be interesting to see if it can get past that resistance during market hours. All other solars are ~2-3% up as well.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Any thoughts on SCTY entry. These guys (Kimbal and Co.) have been on a role with deals lately. My one worry though is that the price is already factored in because they released all these things early. I'm out of cash to get in for now, but I hope to get in next week when I have funds.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    looks to be another solar blood bath day.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    More like the whole market is getting creamed. Nasdaq etc are down 0.4%...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    ya and it seems like Solars are actually holding their ground at this point.
    Yesterday was ridiculous so i expected some profit taking today. just hope not all of it haha
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    From what I have seen solars tend to be a 2 steps forward, 1 step back type of stock. I have played this 3 times and two if the times I was wrong and the stock continued to go up the next few days. The second time it didn't work it was another massive run up day. For that reason I didn't play it this time.

    I have some ditm nov csiq's I want to roll soon. I'm thinking about rolling half of them to a higher strike with a delta of 70-80 and the other half will go to sometime next year, I'll look towards the end of this week after tsla ER dust has settled a bit.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SCTY earnings play?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    probably going to pop but i am not touching it. I am 0-7 this ER season haha.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Would recommend shares or LEAPS if you are planning to play earnings.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SCTY down in sympathy to TSLA most likley.

    SCUN is still on a run. i still dont own any, but i dont see why this stock continues to climb, nearly no news. anyone with insight?
    Chat wise it looks like it could still run to $14
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Man, when it rains it pours. Since my TSLA options went completely worthless, I'll need to sell some stuff to get rid of my margin (originally, even at about 60% loss, my TSLA options would have negated my margin). Which means selling solar...which are all taking a beating today. And my favorite solar child, that's been the best of the flock even when the group is down, CSIQ? Yea, it's chosen today to be the worst of the group rather than the best, leading the decline at about -7% (along with SPWR).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Very tempting to buy a few SCTY Nov calls just to see the pop hopefully recover some of the lost money in TSLA today. :(
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My sentiments exactly... but I'm not sure I feel like all of it is priced in
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My play for SCTY is in there's got to be a reason why they released metrics early.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My understanding is they did that to prop up the stock price in order to get more money from secondary offering; and they got a 30% higher offering price. I could be wrong though.

    I thought it was very unethical. If they don't meet those targets next year then Solar City will get sued over this and it could be costly.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If that is the case... it kind of sucks that I just bought some calls.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    looks like SCTY was a Meh..
    Been a really tough earnings season for just about every stock i watch this year. Not a single one has been positive this quarter. that is 0-15 so far.
    Making me question all my solar holdings as they start to report.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    depends on how short term your trades/options are. I am going to hold my options positions in csiq, jaso, and jks through earnings, but giving them plenty of time (with expirations in June 14 and jan 15) to recover in case earnings are not up to the street's expectations.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    most of mine are long term.
    Only Jans i hold are SOL and YGE which were purely a couple bucks in lotto tickets. I am just saying this because earnings had been a slaughter house for me at 0-15 my entire account is almost back to even for the year. (not all were short term earning plays, just that i lost alot due to the falls but i can still recover) Short term plays were (FB, MU, TSLA, and SPWR) lost them and what turned my large portfolio back to even. CREE took out all my gains and put me back to even on them, for the second time this year. AMD was another disappointment as well. Profitable again after years underwater and yet still wasent enough for the market. OK sorry i am done venting lol.

    Oh i forgot i have a few CSIQ Jan $20s from a long time ago that were up 500% before today. So that is the only one i am actually going to really have to contemplate dumping and just hold my LEAPS through the ER.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Looks like SCTY continues to slip through the CC.
    (I do not own any SCTY)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    well... that was a bad play on my part. I bought Decs...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SCTY Q3 ER thoughts

    SolarCity reported Q3 earnings today:
    Press release
    Presentation
    Earnings call

    My take: Overall SCTY Q3 earnings are very strong. They continue to bring down costs and expand rapidly. And they�re on track to be cash flow positive in Q4 and stay cash flow positive.

    SCTY as a momentum stock: Recently momentum traders have gotten behind SCTY (even Cramer mentions SCTY as a cult stock now together with AMZN, TSLA and NFLX). I personally don�t think SCTY has a sexy enough of a business model to be group with those momentum players. SCTY�s business model is a super long-term model that probably won�t be able to sustain the hungry appetites of traders who want the stock to continue to go up or else they�ll dump it (and short it).

    Stock reaction to Q3 ER: Expectations going into Q3 ER were really high because of the recent SCTY run-up from under $30 to over $60 in the past several weeks. The earnings report was great from a long-term perspective but from a short-term perspective you could poke enough holes in it (weak Q4 revenue numbers) to make an excuse to exit this �momentum� player. We�ll see what happens in the coming weeks. But I see the recent offering price of $46.40 as a sort of near-term floor/support and I wouldn�t be surprised if SCTY recovers quite nicely in coming weeks.

    Residential market share: SCTY�s market share is growing at a very rapid share in the residential solar install/leasing market. In Q2 it was already 26% of the market and larger than the next 8 competitors combined. With SolarCity�s relentless focus on cost-cutting, I don�t see what will stop SCTY from taking over 50% of the U.S. solar residential install/leasing market within the next 1-2 years.

    ZEP acquisition: On the conference call management noted that their acquisition of Zep Solar has doubled the productivity of their crews. That�s amazing. Here�s a video overview of ZEP�s mounting solution that SCTY�s is now using and owns.

    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have trouble getting behind solar city. It's a great model but there is no protection from other deeper pockets replicating it. I suspect this is just my mistake in not jumping on board but what is the barrier to a utility company doing the same model?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Their main competitive advantage is their relentless focus to drive down costs of install/leasing/maintenance through the "Musk optimization method" (just coined it now). By the "Musk optimization method" I mean you look at every single part of the process/system and optimize incrementally like a mad man. An example of this is SpaceX where they've taken every part of the rocket/launch system and have optimized and cut costs to ultimately create a rocket/launch system that no other company can compete with (and especially so when they achieve a breakthrough with relaunchable rockets). Tesla is also following this "Musk optimization method" by religiously driving down costs to create an impressive 25% GM in the coming Q4.

    It might sound easy to focus on all part of a system/product, optimize and drive down costs. But it's actually a lot harder than it seems. The biggest challenge is to have the focus to do so. That's what other solar companies lack. No other solar company that I know of is attacking the integration of residential solar install/leasing/maintaining with the same religious fervor to drive down costs as SolarCity is. Nobody is even close IMO. That's why their current market share is greater than the next 8 competitors in the residential solar install/leasing market. And this will only likely grow a lot bigger.

    The challenge with panel manufacturers that I think as an investor you should have confidence with is whether the panel manufacturer has a long-term business model that is scalable. For example, if a company manufactures panels and that's their business model then what ensures a high gross margin? What's the competitive advantage over other panel manufacturers when there's a lot of them? Also, more importantly what's stopping them from becoming a low-margin component supply company that is stuck with shrinking growth after solar ends its hyper-growth period (eventually). Meaning, solar sounds sexy right now (ie., new, growing industry) but what's so special about panel manufacturers that they can become enduring, scalable companies that grow for 50+ years into world-class companies. I think it's possible and a few will likely emerge into those world-class level companies and evolve their business models as well. But for now, the solar stock boom is largely a rebound from an overcorrection that started last year when global demand for panels shrank and the market was flood with over supply. Chinese solars were on brink of bankruptcy, and now they're recovering and you're seeing a return to normal valuations (even though it's probably got a while to run still, but there might be some bumps along the way). So after it returns to normal valuation on fundamentals, then what besides the general solar industry growth pattern, will separate these companies as attractive high-growth companies?

    The reason why I think SCTY is special (apart from other solar companies) is because not only are they riding the solar wave but they've created a business model that is actually enduring and will last 100+ years even after solar growth tapers.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks Dave. Did you play calls on this ER? And are you not afraid that SCTYs partners might become their competetion? Or just a general shortage of panels in the next years as China ramps up local plants.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hey Norse, didn't play calls on this ER. SCTY is too volatile for me to play it short-term.

    I don't have much concern about SolarCity's partners becoming their competition. Expiring tax subsidies and changing net metering policies are probably my two biggest concerns, though I think both can and will be overcome via the cost reduction goals SolarCity has. Also, I don't think a shortage of panels will affect SolarCity much. They'll pay market rate (or a bit cheaper because of the scale of their purchases) and they can afford to do so because they're way ahead of their cost reduction goals, meaning even with higher panel costs they can still provide panel systems for cheap enough to make financial sense for the customer, fund investor and Solarcity.

    By the way, thanks for the link to the China auto quota article this morning. It was a good read. For those who haven't read it, it's here: China, choking on auto fumes, cuts new car sales quotas - NBC News.com
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I did not play it eighter but I think today might be a good day to get it. If Tesla falls deep the next days it might take SCTY with them, and we could get em both pretty cheap on Monday, but thats just a wild guess.

    Regarding the news from China I think its a strong signal to buy KNDI and TSLA again, if it wasnt for the downward momentum I think this should have boosted TSLA 5% alone. It also shows how important politicians are for helping the renewable revolution.
    Long-term I think SCTY and TSLA will do fine without politicians. And remember that the oil-industry is heavy subsidized, and that will not last much longer.

    - - - Updated - - -

    That did not take long: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/greenchina/2013-11/07/content_17087263.htm?
    China plans to raise its whole-year target of installed solar capacity to 12 gigawatts in 2014, up by 20 percent from the original target, becoming the latest stimulus for the country's sluggish solar industry.
    The new installation target for 2014 will include distributed solar capacity to 8 GW, and solar power stations with a capacity of 4 GW, according to a newly released document by the nation's energy authority.

    Great news for the chinese stocks.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Awesome news indeed Norse! Hopefully the NASDAQ cooperates today and lets these stocks shine :) .
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    All solars are down around 2% in premarkt. Maybe being drug into the mud due to Solar City.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm reducing my TSLA long position today and diversifying in more solar. It's too bad TSLA can't catch a break.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That and CSUN posted (apparently to the market) lackluster earnings this morning. They beat estimates but apparently not well enough to keep the stock from dipping ~12%.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    looks like another big down day in my portfolio.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Great timing for me to add more CSIQ. I'd also like to add more JASO but I don't like that there has been zero news from the company in the past two months if I recall correctly.
    �
    • Người đăng: vào lúc

    Không có nhận xét nào:

    Đăng nhận xét

    Đăng ký: Đăng Nhận xét (Atom)