Chủ Nhật, 30 tháng 10, 2016

Alternative Energy Investor Discussions part 15

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
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    guest
    Most of my research is reading articles. Obviously, I don't stop at one article as the sole view of truth, but what exactly do you recommend reading for research? Every thing is written by some human with some potential for error.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I recommend using first hand data, such as company press releases, 10k, 10q, etc.

    As far as short interest goes, all you have to do is look up the share count in the 10q and then go to NASDAQ.com to look at the number of shorted shares. It is not a perfect method, since float is important but nobody knows what the float is on Chinese solar companies. You kind of have to use shares outstanding instead of float.

    I just want to point out that you have to be careful if you are investing in companies based on reading articles. 90% of the info in articles is wrong, or misrepresented unintentionally. There are not really any good sources for information on solar companies because nobody follows them.

    That is why I have done my own first hand research and have come up with my investment decisions. Now I am trying to figure out a way to inform the world and to spread the word.
    �
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    Ah, ok, thanks sleepyhead, that helps give me a little more focus on what to look at and/or how to weight what I read.
    �
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    guest
    Hey Sleepy... do you have a price target on CSIQ? It's been going great so far and I'm sitting on a lot of profit thanks mostly to you. What do you expect from the upcoming earnings? Thanks again.

    Edit: the question is directed to sleepy but I'm interested in hearing anybody's opinion obviously!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ya if you believed everything and article said you would be shorting TSLA right now.

    Anyone know whats up with SPWR today? or just a breather pull back?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    CSUN just took off again, up 10% today. Rest of solars seem up 3-5% as well except STRI, which is down and SOL and SPWR that lag at only ~1% up :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    One of my brokers called me when TSLA was around $100 to ask me if I saw some article. I laughed at him and said if I believed anything I read about TSLA I never would have bought it (or the car) in the first place back in 2010. Most of the people that write those articles have no clue what they are talking about. Gotta do your own research.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If I remember correctly, sleepy had a blog entry a while back saying why he thinks CSIQ will double (again) when it was at ~$17 so based on that I'm guessing his price target is >=$34
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    According to google JASO was 98% inst. Held and with a short interest of 60% that would be just epic. Its as sleepy says important to use alot of different sources. I have two weeks off now, ao I will try to spend my time gathering the info we need before earnings.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    In that article I actually gave CSIQ a $60 or $70 PT; I can't remember but my current PT is $70 - $120. I don't like PT's because they are kind of pointless. All I know is that CSIQ is going up and I wouldn't be selling any time soon. It might even hit $50 by the end of next month. No reason to sell at all, it is so undervalued.

    Buy and Hold. Even if these stocks double, they are still undervalued. No reason to sell at all.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Might hit $50, means that there is a 1% chance this happens. Please don't be buying call options based on my price targets.

    Some of the options purchases I have seen here are borderline ridiculous. This is exactly what I was afraid off. Some of you guys might end up being the only people in the world to have lost money investing in solar in 2013 with some of the ridiculous options I have seen posted here over the last few pages.
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    Blah, and here I was sitting around hoping for a better entry point to load up on more of those $25 calls :)
    When are the earnings, is 11/11 the official date?
    �
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    guest
    Care to elaborate?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well I closed down some hedged spreads today, made some 8% profit on portfolio total, now have some cash to throw at things again...
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    guest
    People buying JASO Dec $18 options for example. The stock would have to double in 2 months just to make money. Extremely low probability play. Many other examples if you read back a couple of pages.

    And then they say that they are "overpaying" just to get them...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    Ah ok I didn't see that one. Most of what I saw was pretty reasonable, i.e. only a couple dollars above the current share price.

    - - - Updated - - -

    But to be fair, you can technically make money on something that far OTM even if the share price only goes up a couple dollars before expiration. May not be a best option choice in the world but its still viable for profits.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Exactly. There is still money to be made without it having to go up that much.

    But that is a good reminder from @sleepy, thanks. It's easy to get carried away with solar b/c of the crazy growth it's having.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SOL still taking on water...
    �
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    SOL below 5 bucks. Man, hopefully we see it up again some time.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yea, it's been sinking for 2 weeks and I've yet to see any news/reason. Given the quantity of $6 options, then $5 as it sunk, I'm hunting for info trying to decide if there's some unpleasant surprise lurking out there or if it's just semi-random movement on a small stock.
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    guest
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    Where as chances of it doubling in the next 6 months (March-June time frame...) are quite a bit higher? (though still low of course) I just wanted to make sure the options I bought weren't ridiculous because I used the phrase "overpaid" and wanted to make sure you weren't talking about me. I think it's extremely risky, but I didn't think it was ridiculous ;) It won't hurt my feelings if it was, I just want the truth!

    - - - Updated - - -

    "Demand may approach tier I supply by late 2014 or 2015." I think that is an example of someone "starting to get it"
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I understand this, but there is still no benefit in buying the Dec $18 call option, unless you know that the stock will be above $23 at expiration. In order to justify buying the $18's to sell for a quick profit, you will probably need the stock to move 40% by next week.

    The $18's are out there only for the market makers to make money, they are a bad idea. In order to break even you will probably need the stock to go up 15%-20% by next week, 25% in 2 weeks, 30% in 3 weeks, 40% in 4 weeks, etc.

    The potential reward for buying the $18's vs. $17's is miniscule, while the risk is significantly higher.

    I am working on a website and would also like to cover options trading strategies and how I decide which options to buy.

    Your June time frame is definitely correct, and March should have a chance as well. The problem is the price you paid for them, I got those same March calls at $0.50, while you paid $0.80. Even though I think they might finish in the money, at some point the price gets too steep that it is not worth the risk anymore. You could have gotten those same options at $0.65 later in the day; and that $0.15 will make a huge difference in return.

    Right now the volatility is high on these options and they are not so great anymore. I bought mine two weeks ago during the weakness and consolidation period, when they were cheap. Right now I would be buying stock in JASO and not as many options. Buy and hold JASO is the best play, because it might take the market 6+ months before this stock goes up big. I know that it will, but don't know when. It is only a matter of time. It might happen over the next month or it might happen next summer.

    This is not official and some websites lead you to believe that it is. We are also planning on having accurate earnings dates on our website. It is just so hard to get investment information on companies because everybody has outdated or incorrect data.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks for your advice, as always. Yeah, I was pretty bummed about the price difference just during that one day. I should've set a lower limit than I did and if it got away, it got away.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Never set high options limit orders pre market, you will always get screwed. Same goes for selling.

    Only time you want to do that is if their is a news story and you think that the market did not price in the story properly in pre-market. Otherwise, in case of JASO with no news and no big industry news, it is better to buy in the afternoon.

    You may still do ok, but if I get a 10-bagger, you will only get a 6-bagger. I know that still sounds great, but I can strike out 5 times and still make 100% return. If you strike out 5 times before hitting the 6-bagger, you only broke even.

    That is the key to playing options, every penny makes a huge difference.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sleepy, what do you evaluate whether it's time to cash out options?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My gut feeling.

    I am usually 100% invested at all times. So I just observe the market. When I feel that there is a great opportunity elsewhere, I sell one of my biggest winners (a portion of it) and then quickly turn around and buy the other opportunity. That is how I do things. But I have a very unique trading strategy that I developed on my own. I need some more time to see if it works, and then I will try to share everything I have learned about options. I am still in the learning stage, but have a lot of interesting stories/strategies to share.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    my (selfish) suggestion: go ahead and write some of these stories down while they are fresh in your memory. as many different trades that you make in the matter of a couple months, i'm guessing you may forget some stories many would find interesting and/or serve as good examples of the strategies you are planning on describing.

    thanks in advance btw,
    surfside
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    REC opened at 60NOK today, which was 200% over the IPO. They are now trading at P/E at 25. Lets hope some other companies start doing that.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    looks like today would be the day to buy solar if you were looking for a dip.
    i might go grab some more SOL and CSIQ today.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Was there some big breaking news in solar? Every single stock I follow (SOL, CSIQ, JKS, a few others) is down 3-5%, except SPWR which I unfortunately don't own.

    Energy sector is up, Dow is up, Nasdaq is up.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I see this as a typical solar swing. They may end up green in the PM. There really needs to a catalyst for SOL though. It's sad to see it getting beat up like this.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Im not worried, tho this shows how important leaps and stocks are. The only thing that sucks is that its such a long wait until monday :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yea, that'd be nice. It's been a mistake so far to double down when it's dipped. It's easily the worst performing stock in my portfolio. My Nov $6 are probably trash at this point, but the larger bulk is in Jan $5's, so those have a shot. Both seemed fairly safe bets at the time. Well, the 6's were a bit more of a gamble as the stock was at about 5.5 at the time.

    Edit: Wow, most of the solars are over 7% down, brutal. Worst day of losses ever so far (not just solar). Yea, I said that a couple times already in the last week...very sadly it's been true each time. Been just a brutal month. Haven't felt like this since the 2008 crash.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, for thoose of you wondering about getting into options. Stock portofolio down 1.85%, option portofolio down 40%.

    Btw CSIQ still higher then what is was on Tuesday :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow.....big drops across the board. Feeling the hurt especially with CSIQ. I fortunately reduced my risk in solar a little in the last two days but this is a big move. Judgement day has come? Is there any new piece of news out there?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well Asia is down, and a chinese mobile company(NQ) was just accused of being a fraud. However China is doing okey: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/24/us-china-economy-gdp-idUSBRE99N0BE20131024
    And tho the growth is declining, I think its pretty obvious that solar will grow. If we keep doing 3-4% in the green every day, we can live with a red day in the week :)

    I wish I had money to buy today, but I havent. REC Solar gave good results and rallyed 200% on the IPO. Sunpower will have earnings on Wednesday, hopefully this will be good. When institusions starts paying attention and pension funds starts buying there is no turning back.

    Remember the apple-thread where almost all of them got wiped out. Do not lose money on Solar.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Very good reminder, Norse. Thanks. :) Once I've banked all my retirement goals, I may take some play money. But only then.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    yep -Agree with Norse cautionary remarks; Been sticking with stock and LEAPS ever since it past $100
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Days like this are needed, since these stocks can't go up every day. This is good for the buy and hold investor. Last time we had two days of heavy sell off like this, the stocks went up as much as 50% in a couple of weeks (CSIQ from early October low). Shake out the weak longs. Buy and hold will prevail, because there is too much volatility in the short run to try and time these stocks.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sounds like a good time to buy options. I would have except I spent my available funds on adding to my long term positions on a few stocks. I guess I'm still a buy and hold investor. Every time I run a potential trade on the options profit calculator, there is way too much risk for the potential reward versus just purchasing the same stock. http://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/ Probably because all the stocks I like to look at are upward bound. Perhaps a downward or sideways stock that was about to head up would look more appealing. Like today, JASO options looked somewhat appealing, but I already spent my money (some of it on JASO stock).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
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    guest
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    guest
    Looks like with solar its a game of 2 steps forward and 1 step back.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nothing has changed about any of these companies! It looks like at around 11:30 ET, a massive amount of shares were unloaded for no news reason at all. I am guessing this is the work of institutions/computers wanting to offload shares (maybe for twitter IPO?). Nobody wanted to buy on the way down, so here we are.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    We can guess all we want. China is down today aswell. Maybe someone thinks the Q3 earnings for SPWR and FSLR will be bad, and wants to get out of the sector since they know they follow eachother.

    Buy stock and we will have forgotten this day by tuesday :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just one of those days. The market is up and most of my portfolio is down. Contrarian investing blues I guess.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sympathy for JRP3. ;-)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I bought more JASO stock today in the afternoon (no more trading for me in the morning as I seem to 8/10 times get a bad deal). Not sure if it was smart short term but long term it seems like a steal.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You have to treat all of these solar stocks as a long-term investment. They will all outperform in the long run and the short term volatility should not matter if you are buy and hold.

    The reason these stocks are down is because all Chinese ADR's are being sold off because some short-seller published an article that there is fraud going on in NQ. So the market started selling off all Chinese stocks. Nothing to worry about here, probably a great buying opportunity.

    I was a big buyer today.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Done.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I wish, but Im already allin. However I guess we are only down to what it was on Tuesday so I have no worries at all. We might be up another 15% before the next 6% dip, who knows. Never booring when buying in the emerging markets.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Lazard has once again raised CSIQ PT from 25$ to 35$, have a nice weekend guys!
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    Norse. Link? I am trying to educate myself on solar. Thanks
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
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    Thanks Norse
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    These analysts are playing catch up the whole time. I have a $70 PT on CSIQ, but I guess it would look ridiculous if an analyst had such a target. Although I think I might even have to revise my target upwards next year.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    LOL! Look at the link again guys! SunPower (NASDAQ:SPWRA) had its price target raised by Lazard Capital Markets from $35.00 to $42.00. They currently have a buy rating on the stock.

    Looking forward to monday!

    Do note that when Lazard upgraded CSIQ last time, it did not rally instantly, but this was in the middle of the debt ceiling debate.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks for posting, Norse, especially on a Friday night. Have you even slept?? Anyway, what is the intention behind release upgrades late Friday vs Monday morning? So investors can take time to analyze over the weekend?

    Here is a link for those interested. Lazard Capital Markets Increases SunPower Price Target to $42.00 (SPWRA) - Ticker Report
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thank you! Im trying to researching how to find Price Targets. Its nice to know who to trust and who not to trust.
    And when speaking of that, anyone seen that Nomura PT for $CSIQ? I think we might have an issue here..
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have only seen people saying on other boards but haven't found anything confirmation yet. You could try contacting Nitin Kumar, the CSIQ Nomura analyst. Nitin Kumar | LinkedIn

    Why do you think there is an issue?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Cause I havent seen it anywhere but twitter, and on other forums. It`s pretty easy to fake these things.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'd treat it as fake until major outlets start reporting it.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Effectively have been without access to internet since driving out of Alaska >three weeks ago, so it's been quite trying in getting to read up on everything. And besides, I had my P85 delivered, so have been having some fun!!!!

    HERE is something on topic, not so good, out of the Arizona Republic from Thursday, Oct. 24. Summarizing:

    Maricopa Cty has CANCELLED its economic development contract with First Solar, 2 1/2 yrs after agreeing to provide them $20mm in development incentives. That occurred after FSLR, based in Tempe, AZ, shut down activity at a Mesa AZ facility, citing "various business and economic factors"....FSLR's head of communications said company does not intent to retain that facility...it wasn't an "effective or sustainable business model" (am quoting the paper, not the spokesman).


    So.....sounds to me as though FSLR has had to backpedal on a manuf'g site; not so good as this was absolutely in their back yard. Or front yard.

    Article is from page B7, is headlined " County, First Solar Cancel Deal".
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Doesnt sound good.

    Btw, as im trying to find some PT here, I found something on JKS. Im not sure if someone has posted it before but Credit Suisse initiated coverage for JKS on 23/9 with a Neutral rating and a PT of 22$ even tho the stock was trading at about 17.50$ that day. On the 17th of October they upgraded it to outpreform and put a price target of 32$. It is currently trading on 23$. So both JKS and CSIQ has PT 50% over their current trading price.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Research analysts at Credit Suisse initiated coverage on shares of SolarCity Corp. (NASDAQ:SCTY) in a report released on Monday, TheFlyOnTheWall.com reports. The firm set an �outperform� rating on the stock.In other SolarCity Corp. news, Director Elon Musk purchased 214,869 shares of SolarCity Corp. stock on the open market in a transaction icon1.png dated Monday, October 21st. The shares were purchased at an average price of $46.54 per share, for a total transaction of $10,000,003.26. The transaction was disclosed in a document filed with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available at this

    http://tickerreport.com/banking-finance/42721/solarcity-corp-receives-new-coverage-from-analysts-at-credit-suisse-scty/
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SOL and JASO are taking a beating... CSIQ is still up which is good.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And JKS. Really need these to turn around in the next 3-6 weeks. I'm scattered across 5 solar companies, but only CSIQ is in the green since I bought them a few weeks back. SOL in particular is bad and my 2nd biggest chunk in the portfolio. SOL's had two pushes up to 5.5 in the last couple months, the first quite short lived and this last a bit longer. Hopefully it blips again and I can convert these shorter options into long ones.

    In my newbishness, when folks were talking about "long" options versus "short", I was thinking months versus weeklies. I've since realized that when conversation talks about "long" options that really means something closer to LEAPS. The lingo needs to add "medium" or some such for clarity :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That's why I recommended buying shares for the solar companies. Options are too risky and there might not be a turnaround in 3-6 weeks; although I am betting that they will.

    BTW, with the stocks pulling back for the second day in a row, it might be a good time to get into solar if you were sitting on the sidelines.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I should be in good shape with SOL and JASO, as I got into them with $5 APR '14 and $11 JUNE '14 (respectively) calls.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Raised as much capital as I could to buy into this weakness. I see this as a buying opportunity.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ditto. I grabbed up some more SOL since it was my weakest of the 4 solars i am in.
    Speedy, have you had any chance to look into what to expect out of SPWR for earnings this week?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sold almost the rest of my stock to gamble on dec calls tomorrow.
    �
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    guest
    For which company?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Depence on how this day goes. Sold some TSLA to buy JASO and JKS right now.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have been searching for a announcement/article about JKS. Any reason (other than solar is volitale) that it would be down 10%
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    None what so ever that i could find either. since solar was beat down and JKS was on a huge run i think its just taking the hit a bit harder then the rest. I actually used this dip to buy a few June options for my first JKS holdings.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think thats one of the smartest things to do atm. Nothing has changed. I have said earlier that I belive we are where TSLA was one year ago, and then these swings also makes sense.

    We are used to this arent we? :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well on an otherwise bleak day I was able to grab some JKS at $19.75.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Today was my worst day since, well, I don't know, maybe worst day ever $$ amount wise. Hopefully SPWR has a good report Wednesday otherwise this pain may not end for a while. Luckily I have listened to Sleepy and most of my holdings are stock or LEAPS so most of the stuff should do very well long run and make up for any short term losses.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ya i am still sitting on some Jan call that i bought back on Q2. i was hoping to sell half of them before earnings take profits and leave the other half for a earnings play. Last two days of trading have pretty much whipped them out so i dont know if i should hold all, sell all or do the 50/50 plan still, although it would no long be risk free.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Diluted the cost on my SOL and JASO options today. Hopefully we start to see things pick back up now that earnings are around the corner. Maybe if people see companies like SPWR do well this week they will start to load up on other Chinese solars in anticipation of their respective earnings reports.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good call on stock and LEAPS. Solar stocks have been going up and down in huge swings and nothing will change in the near future. The trend though has been up, and I expect it to continue and so does DB.

    I lost 30% of my portfolio over the last two days, but I don't care because I knew this would happen. And my portfolio is still higher than it was last week even after those losses. I am sticking to my strategy to buy and hold and hope for the best. No reason to trade in and out, because you will never time the market right with these solar stocks.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I picked up some JASO last friday only to see another big drop today. I am tempted to pick up more solar stocks like HSOL, CSIQ, JKS, SOL given that I really don't see any sensible news/reasons for the global slowdown on Solar stocks. Anyone care to educate me why the sudden drop and which ones of the solar players do you recommend for a short term ride up (profit from the senseless dip, not planning long term holding).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have posted the reason for the drop a few pages back. Hint because of NQ and Muddy Waters.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I see. I plan to watch out how the solar stocks fare tomorrow and possibly load up some more if I see weakness. Did you have any favorites amongst HSOL, CSIQ, JKS, SOL? HSOL for instance took a pretty hard beating in the last week.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just make sure you are a buy and hold investor. If you are talking about stock, then my favorites are CSIQ and SPWR, since these are the two best companies.

    JKS is probably a little oversold, but I think some Bloomberg "expert" (who has been talking solars down for a while) claimed that JKS sells panels to itself and that's why it tanked. I have not researched JKS enough to comment on this, but that is the reason for the huge JKS sell-off. Probably a great buying opportunity but I am not sure how seriously people are taking this guy or if the accusations have any merit (my limited understanding on the topic is that they don't have merit, but please research yourself).

    JASO and SOL are my two favorite value picks, they only need a hint of good news to take off. But as you can see no news could be detrimental. These are long-term buy and hold investments that can pay-off quickly or slowly (or never, but then the whole sector would have to tank unless there is some fraud or force majeure event).

    I don't know much about HSOL, but the solar investors I do know prefer SOL over HSOL since they both have the same market cap.


    And lastly, people only focus on how much money they lost and you can't do that if you want to make sound investment decisions. I lost a lot of (paper profits) money too over the past two days, but I still have more than I had last week. Stocks go up and down, solar stocks go up a lot more and down a lot more. If you invest in solar you have to understand this concept. So if you are getting in then do it now and plan to hold for a long time. All of these stocks are down 15%-30% from their peaks on Thursday. They may go down more today, but I am not sure if they have much further to go. Even if they do go down more, you still bought at a 30% discount compared to others who bought on Thursday.

    As much as you can't get greedy when cashing out gains on the way up, you also can't get greedy on the way down looking for an entry point. You had the right idea: buy some on pullback on Friday, then buy some more on another pullback on Monday. If they pullback again 5%-10% today, I would probably put in the rest of my money to work because they can't go down forever unless you think these stocks are worthless. This is just my investment strategy, but everyone has a different risk tolerance and financial goal, so please make your own investment decisions accordingly.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    JASO back above 10$. I have but a small position in JASO but I'm glad it's recovering a little.

    CSIQ also going up nicely.

    Solar stocks are displaying their usual "upwards ramp" behavior: a slow and steady raise throughout the day. Might be a good sign that the good times are back.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ya JKS back up 10%. man i shouldnt of limped so weak on JKS yesterday, haha.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I shifted some SPWR money over to SOL. I got SOL at $4.16 so was able to see all 10% it went up today while SPWR "only" went up 4% today so it ended up being "smart" for today. I did this I've been real heavy in SPWR and wanted to shift some of it somewhere else. I wanted to move it to JASO or SOL. After some research last night and the fact I'm already as heavy as I wanted to be in JASO I picked SOL.

    Here's to hoping SPWR has a good ER tomorrow and it brings everybody up.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have a tiny amount of money I was considering throwing at the weekly, but I really have no idea what to expect so that feels akin to spinning the roulette wheel.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SPWR getting a pop is purely going to be on guidance. they have been at full capacity for some time now so they cant grow (Q2 took a massive hit because of that) If they havent expanded their capacity or at least tell us they have more coming online in Q4 then they are probably going to take a beating again. I looked and cant find any proof that their will be new capacity. Best info I found was a possible partnership with another company in 2014. I dont know if that is going to be enough.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    ckessel,

    with solar stocks being so volatile and the uncertainty associated with earnings, I would recommend spending the money on a LEAP rather than weekly options. If spwr disappoints in any way, there is time to recover with the LEAP. The weekly would be worthless.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Or even stock, lol. I learned this the hard way last ER. SPWR was supposed to have an awesome quarter, and they did, but guidance wasn't what the street wanted so down the stock went! My stock came back with a vengeance but the monthly options **poof** tax write-off.

    You can still make good money in solar with stock!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I also feel like working with options is different for each company and you have to be tracking it for a while to get a good grasp of how it moves. I've watched TSLA enough to understand it but these solar companies are pretty different (IV, volume, etc). Having said that, with a lot of these stocks going pretty high pretty fast you can still make money but there is more risk obviously. I've gotten some options but recently have been focusing on shares. Got some SOL, CSIQ and SPWR yesterday and don't regret it so far :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hmm, so riddle me this, sort of the same question in reverse. I've got a block of November 16th options on SPWR I bought a few weeks ago. If you already had the options, would you sell and buy stock/LEAPS?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Depends on your tolerance to lose that cash. If you willing to gamble it, hold them. If not change over to LEAPS at the minimum. I really have no way to know which way SPWR is going to go as there is no information on expanding its production line, which is what hurt them last ER. Is this no information meaning they dont have anything? or are they hiding it? and even if they have something, is it enough to make the market happy?

    I am slightly bearish on their ER report due to the lack of knowledge on increased production (Disclaimer i am no expert so dont blame me for a bad trade) which is why i am only limping in for the ER. That is my opinion and i am trading accordingly. If someone can show me some hard data they have expanded then i would be on board.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Which solar is reporting Q3 earnings first? I am focused on earnings on the ones in my portfolio, which are basically the ones most discussed here. I am planning to sell a portion of my calls before earnings and don't want to miss the boat because some bellwether solar that is not on my radar reports early.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SPWR tomorrow is first
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SPWR FSLR and SCTY in that order. The Chinese have not announced dates yet.

    Btw, CSIQ did not follow SPWR down after earnings last time..
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    FWIW, I am extremely bullish on SPWR and all solar stocks going into ER (no, this is not an invitation to start buying Nov. call options like crazy). I have done a ton of qualitative research and this quarter has to be really good for everyone.

    The only way SPWR goes down after earnings is if they have incompetent management.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SPWR Earnings Today after Market Close

    SPWR is announcing earnings today after market close. The stock is up 100% since I started recommending it here in June. I know that a lot of people here have been spoiled by TSLA, but just wanted to remind you guys that stocks don't normally double in a few short months. The average time it takes a stock to double is 7-10 years.

    I am very excited to learn what kind of growth strategy they have come up with. I have posted my Q3 earnings preview article this morning with link below.

    I can't imagine another Q2 happening. For those with short memories, Q1 was the exact opposite and SPWR doubled in a month after Q1 earnings. The stock has also rebounded 70% after the 25% post Q2 decline.

    This is a testament to how irrational the markets can be. That is why I always recommend to buy and hold solar stocks if you are interested in investing in the sector.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks for the preview, sleepyhead.

    Some news out of CSIQ this am:

    http://investors.canadiansolar.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=196781&p=irol-newsArticle_print&ID=1870012

    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I totally agree. If they didn't get the message after the last earnings they never will. However I don't know enough about panel manufacturing and I worry that increasing capacity might be a harder problem than we think it is. They might need more time to put the pieces all together. Wouldn't they have announced any major expansion plan before the earnings call? Does it make any sense to wait until now with any major announcement?

    Still I would be shocked if they won't at least announce some future roadmap or something similar (at that point the market would be justified to just kill the stock). Of course even if they announce something the market might still not like the timeframe of their plan and tank anyway.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is all true, but they said on last CC that they might have an answer on this CC.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    price action on SPWR is looking very weak.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I wouldn't read too much into it (unless somehow, there is an earnings leak). The markets, for the most part, are down today, along with most of the high fliers and all of the solar sector. Let's see what earnings and guidance look like later today.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Once again, every solar is getting crushed pretty heavily. Every solar stock of the 6 or so I checked is lower than it was a month ago, except CSIQ despite also being down lately. My December SOL 6's actually have zero value now :(, no bids in a while and the ask is a shiny nickel.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't know what chart you are looking at but on the 1-month chart SPWR is up 25% and CSIQ is up 35%. JASO, SOL, and JKS almost at break even, only down 5% - 10%.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I wouldn't read into it either.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That is because everyone else knows its junk. i hope you paid very little for it and are a lucky SOB when it comes to earnings.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    ckessel,

    volatility is is the norm in the solar sector, so it is expected to fluctuate greatly. I would strongly take sleepy's advice when it comes to investing in solar: either buy shares or LEAPS. The closest expiration I have in solar is march 2014 for jks (which I bought recently before the June expiration became available) and I am nervous holding them, as I would like to roll to June as soon as possible.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    ckessel, I am sorry for all of your paper losses. I still think there is a tiny chance for you to recover on some of your options. It will require a blowout from SPWR to begin with.

    If you don't recover, then I am going to use you as a case study why it is a bad idea to buy options in solar. That is why I have been recommending shares, or LEAPS if you really want to go the options route. Unfortunately, hardly any of the solars offer LEAPS, or are prohibitively expensive.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Didn't look at SPWR, yea it's up.

    Otherwise, all down from 30 days ago. Some down by not much as you noted, but negative.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Well, recover or not, probably still a good example.

    What hurts is it's nearly everything that's been hit and it all went south at almost exactly the same time starting ~3-4 weeks ago, which is precisely when I tried to diversify out of just TSLA stock. It's the conjunction of all stocks dropping and all doing it at the same time that's been the killer. Even if they'd all dropped, if it'd been more staggered some options would have been ok, some bad, some I could have reallocated. I'd still have losses, but the conjunction of the timing really magnifies it.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    With a few bad treads and the solar hit i am only a few ks above where i started 6 months ago. My only Green right now is solars though. (options portfolio)

    - - - Updated - - -

    SPWR beats, very little AH action, people might be waiting for the CC to make any major moves. (talking about volume)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sunpower (NASDAQ: SPWR) reported Q3 EPS of $0.44, $0.19 better than the analyst estimate of $0.25. Revenue for the quarter came in at $657 million versus the consensus estimate of $583.24 million.

    Sunpower sees Q4 2013 EPS of $0.15-$0.35, versus the consensus of $0.28. Sunpower sees Q4 2013 revenue of $675-725 million, versus the consensus of $723.3 million.

    That to me is a nice beat, but weak guidance... So the result might be mixed and probably means indeed everyone is waiting for the CC.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ya lets hope. Its not even back over how much it lost today.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The way I understand it is it sounds like SPWRs biggest issue is this fab plant won't be fully online for a while. They will be able to increase capacity some but are mostly going to be production constrained most of 2014.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yup, which is exactly what i said i saw happening. I dumped most of my options mid day today, kept my Jan 15 LEAPS.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Alright guys, here's SPWR's Q3 earning call transcript:
    SunPower Corporation (SPWR): SunPower Management Discusses Q3 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript - Seeking Alpha

    SPWR Q3 earnings slides: http://investors.sunpowercorp.com/common/download/download.cfm?companyid=SPWR&fileid=701503&filekey=95e5eaa2-7ee0-4873-a9f8-61c14ad3f68d&filename=Q3%202013%20Supplementary%20Slides%20Final.pdf

    SPWR Q3 supplemental data: http://investors.sunpowercorp.com/common/download/download.cfm?companyid=SPWR&fileid=701504&filekey=1e1a2208-5507-4557-82db-f324cc96c548&filename=Q3%202013%20Supplementary%20Metric%20Sheet%20Final.pdf

    Here's my quick take. I thought it was okay to pretty good. Their Q3 results were impressive and their FY 2013 non-GAAP estimates of $1.30-1.50 eps is impressive. The challenge with SPWR (and other manufacturers) is that it's difficult to ramp production quickly. It's going to take them 3 years to ramp for 1.2 GW capacity to 1.6 GW capacity. The growth investor will likely want to see more aggressive ramping than that since their revenues will likely track their capacity. 2014 guidance seems very similar to this year. So, again the exciting ramping of growth is missing. Overall though, SPWR is positioning themselves as a very strong player in the U.S. and global solar market. They have a strong pipeline and have lots of cash on hand to fund their growth. The challenge is with limited capacity ramping ability it's difficult to give them a high growth P/E multiple.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So it looks like SPWR is a year or two away from any real stock growth.
    �
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