Thứ Hai, 31 tháng 10, 2016

Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA) part 9

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agree- I think Fuel Cell's best application is for larger industrial plant power generation as a backup or augmentation to solar.
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    guest
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    guest
    [FONT=&quot]This is a excerpt from the last 10-K of Tesla (Link):[/FONT]

    Stationary Energy Storage Applications
    In 2013, we developed stationary energy storage products for use in homes, commercial sites and utilities. The applications for these battery systems include backup power, peak demand reduction, demand response and wholesale electric market services. We plan to ramp sales of these products in 2014.


    I wasnt even aware of the fact that the energy storage products were already in production in 2013.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Probably referring to this:

    http://www.solarcity.com/residential/energy-storage.aspx

    I think it is a pilot program that is not offered to everybody.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I talked to SolarCity about that battery storage product. They are somewhat vague about its availability and price (note: I am located in the San Francisco area). They are crystal clear that they will only sell it as part of a PV system that they sell and install. They will not sell that storage product separately. I was very disappointed to learn that.
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    (please don't shoot the messenger)

    Is European demand in a bad state? Look at this guy's comments, he is making bold statements that European demand is bad:

    Logical Thought's Comments on TSLA: Tesla Motors - Seeking Alpha

    "Here, I'll help you out on that one: the sales are reported every month (despite Tesla's best efforts to hide them): http://bit.ly/1gjm3qj

    You can define "demand" however you want, but the only definition that counts is how many are sold, and that number is now unquestionably DECLINING in Europe now that the car has had eight or so months of availability, and it clearly isn't that Europe can't be supplied because some people in the U.S. are apparently now getting delivery dates within THREE WEEKS of confirming their orders: http://bit.ly/1n9VNrA "

    "You're kidding, right? Have you seen Germany, France, Italy, Spain Holland, Sweden and Belgium? Among all of them combined, Tesla sold fewer than 150 cars last month."

    Is this all true? There are many European members here. Maybe they can confirm or invalidate these statements..
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well the waiting list in Norway is still 6 months.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Next time you quote 'Logical Thought' I will be shooting the messenger.

    That guy is short TSLA and doing anything he can to find negatives where they don't exist.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, I know he has been short Tesla since a while. Nevertheless I think it's important to see what the other side is saying and see if we can easily refute them. If so, all the more power to us (longs).

    Norse's response makes it clear that there is no demand issue. Anyone know the status on European charging issues?
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I believe that Europe ships in waves, so it'd be fairly easy to cherry pick a given month and say sales are increasing or decreasing.

    Tesla keeps expanding shipments to new countries faster than they're able to ramp up production, so for a while it'll be fairly easy to point to almost any country that had shipments last quarter and say the sales there have gone down...because new countries that have no sales history are sucking up the production.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Supply does not equal demand.

    Tesla is production constrained; someone has to make a calculated decision as to which market each car is sent to: North America, Europe, or China. I do not think it's reasonable to suppose that Tesla is allocating shipments in exact proportion to current order flows.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Though Elon did stress how important Germany was, you'd think more vehicles would be allocated there if the demand were high.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Could have been that they held off or delayed a lot of German deliveries until they got the charging issue fixed in Germany or until Elon was happy with the final tune-up they are giving German cars for the autobahn.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Elon had indicated he wanted to test the limits on demand for the S in 2014. I think part of the reason for delay in the Model X introduction is that there is surprising demand for the S that can not be met. As long as the battery packs are the limiting factor TM is supply constrained only.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I would like to believe that. Just to put some perspective, here is Elon's exact words in the Q4 conference call.

    "Well, we -- I think there's probably work to do in a number of locations in Europe, mostly because we still have to sort out a number of charging issues. Because the -- even though the EU is sort of 1 market economically. It's certainly not one market from an electricity standpoint. So we're sorting through a number of charging issues over there. And I think that's what's slowing down our [indiscernible] temporarily, but we feel confident about addressing those in the very near term and expect that the sales will do -- will pick up quite a bit over in Europe." - From here

    I don't see any threads discussing this. It would be nice to know the status.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There's a fair bit of discussion about European charging issues here: Europe
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The date of this video interview of Elon Musk from Germany was approx. Nov 1, 2013:

    Tesla-Chef Elon Musk im Interview - Frontal 21 - ZDFmediathek - ZDF Mediathek

    In the interview Elon Musk said he suspect Germany may have underlying Model S demand of 15,000 units per year. Elon explained that he is optimistic about demand from Germany because Germany has the second largest Roadster owners behind U.S.A.

    IMO Tesla is still very much: 1) battery cell and production constrained, 2) channels are still being filled, cars in tranit, 3) Europe, China, etc are just getting started with Model S.

    Actually, most drivers in the world, including USA drivers, still have never heard of Tesla.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
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    Now for something completely different

    Elon Musk discussing the opportunity to reduce the cost (drastically) and increase the performance (drastically) for batteries produced by the Gigafactory for grid storage and vehicles.

    Innovation and the Impact of Regulation with Elon Musk and Lyndon Rive - YouTube

    From Minute 24:40


    Spoiler: Gigafactory materials input costs reduced from Musk's previous $80 / KWh estimate to $60~$70 / KWh.


    Earlier in the same video - Interesting point brought up by Musk that I have never heard discussed in a commercial context: The customer value proposition of high energy density of batteries used in fixed storage (example used - householders don't want to give up a spare room in the house for a battery - a great solution would be a few inches thick and basically unobtrusive (a bit like a Vehicle pack).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It could fit under your bed :biggrin:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You.
    Are.
    Bad.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    A long time ago I wrote this: Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) news: On Elon Musk And Tesla Motors: The Art Of Modern Warfare In A Noble Cause - Seeking Alpha

    This video: Innovation and the Impact of Regulation with Elon Musk and Lyndon Rive - YouTube

    Minute 1:06:32

    Final absolute confirmation of one if not the only theory it contained yet to be verified.

    Tesla Vehicle Packs will Definitely be used in Grid Storage following vehicle application.

    This is MONUMENTAL for Tesla's long term prospects as a business. Musk does not elaborate on the whole significance of it.

    1. Say goodnight John Petersen, EVs are in fact an environmental and economic masterpiece.
    2. The resale value of the packs can be calculated in MWh throughput in grid storage. This opens up an income stream for Tesla that blows away the revenues ICE manufacturers make from maintenance on poorly designed vehicles and replaces that income stream with a battery upgrade business that is attractive to all parties: Solar city - purchase of a ready to use significantly depreciated battery pack. The customer - a high trade in value of an old 85KWh pack when considering a new technology pack while simultaneously refreshing and upgrading the value of the Model S or Model X vehicle. Tesla - a fantastic value proposition to offer its customers each time a new technology pack becomes available leading to high percentage of fleet sales conversion of a high ticket item.


    This ads at a minimum another 25% to any future valuation model applied to Tesla as a giant additional income stream.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think it's conservative by 50%.

    (Edit - Referring to video taken down, which suggested 5-year price target of $550.)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Your videos are unwatchable. Please stop posting them, here or anywhere else. Thank you.
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    guest

    That's exactly what I'm saying. The advantage isn't in technology. There is no technological barrier to them making an EV. The barriers are otherwise.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The very definition of compulsion. You can't stop clicking the link and watching. I can't help but point this out to you. The moderator can't help but move both our posts to snippy thread.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I did have trouble making it through the video, i stopped about 5 minutes in. In order to be constructive: I think the presentation was a little slow, and I was going "get to the point". I skimmed a bit further, and it seems to be a summary of the past year events, which is not relevant to the stock as much as the forward looking issues.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Several contributors here seem to dismiss the IP and patents that Tesla has/has applied for. And Elon has stated on several occasions, they have IP for which they will not disclose via the patent process. Considering no other company in the world has developed or can deliver a 200+ mile range electric car in volume, perhaps there is a bit of a technology moat?

    I completely agree, with FANGO's assertion, "The barriers are otherwise." But I also think there are possibly some meaningful technological barriers Tesla has solved or improved upon.

    (edit)

    I was going to try to paraphrase this quote, but found a reference to it from 2012. It's in response specifically to the demise if Fisker, but it reinforces the point I made above.

    (Bolded for emphasis)
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  • 1/1/2015
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    @FANGO

    To your first point, as soon as Tesla gives away a franchise then the US auto dealer associations have got their hooks into Tesla. Right now they cannot claim to have done a single thing to earn a piece of Tesla's action. They never (intentionally) marketed Tesla and they never put a penny of investment into Tesla new vehicle inventory.

    To your second point. Dealers are way ahead of Big Auto execs in identifying the danger from Tesla. If Big Auto operated their own sales and customer interactions they would be in possession of the same warning signals. Yes the brand dominance of Tesla, but also the technological advantage.

    What Tesla has done technologically, is definitely beyond the capabilities in evidence across of Big Auto. The motor and control system is not the same as any other EV on the road. Every other EV on the road is using some variety of permanent magnet DC brushless system because the control systems for an infinitely variable speed and torque AC Induction system with the efficiencies achieved by Tesla are at the limit of modern power engineering. The twin AC induction system for the Model X is on another level beyond that.

    As for batteries, Tesla has a battery that exists in a 5 star safety approved vehicle at approaching double the energy density and approaching half the cost per KWh achieved by any other EV on the road. It is very, very difficult to do this owing to the fact that as energy densities go up, so does the potential for something to go catastrophically wrong. Unlike a tank of gasoline that contains a preponderance of fuel and a fraction of the amount of air to burn that fuel completely, a charged battery is effectively a mixture of fuel and all of the oxidiser required to burn it. The higher the energy density the greater the propensity for trouble. Tesla has combatted this with, again, a masterpiece of engineering with layer after layer of safety systems, control systems, thermal management and fault-tolerance. It is very difficult for any cell in a Tesla pack to experience failure and very difficult indeed for the failure of one cell to spread to the next, and more difficult still for one failed module of cells to negatively affect additional modules, even following the direct intrusion of a metal object that would have exposed the contents of a gasoline tank to all the oxidiser in the world. This is a level of engineering that is significantly beyond that which has been shown to exist in Big Auto, which is why Tesla has not only the safest and longest range EV with performance approaching that of significantly more expensive supercars. The fact that Tesla now has the confidence both technologically and in terms of projected demand for its products to compound its first mover advantage by setting out to double the worlds battery supply capacity under its own control is no small hint either. To answer your point directly - even if there was some way around Tesla's safety and thermal management patents, just putting what is now 260Wh/Kh 18650s in a vehicle is not on the cards as a simple method of competing with Tesla. That is before we get into Tesla's patents for hybrid metal-air.

    The fully firmware driven car - from drivetrain characteristics, to suspension, to climate control, to security, infotainment, navigation, peer-to-peer communication, over the air diagnostics and servicing, predictive servicing alerts, back to base SOS, even running apps for goodness sake, is an accomplishment on a par with iOS - Tesla has built its own Linux Kernel "tOS" to run the car. The fact that Tesla can run an iOS emulator to run iOS apps if it felt like it (on top of the operating system of the car) is Silicon Valley vs Detroit level of streets ahead. Apparently SAP was not good enough to build Tesla's back-office systems behind its web site, engineering, accounts and CRM so Tesla built its own ERP system. Big Auto is in a different century (a previous one) when it comes to IT capability. Building that kind of strength behind a low cost sensor suite from Mobileye promises to deliver exactly what Musk has been talking about: The world's first commercial, significantly autonomous vehicle, leapfrogging anything we have seen to date with park assist, adaptive cruise, lane change avoidance and so on.

    The brand advantage that Tesla enjoys is not built on Superbowl ads (obviously) or any other kind of ephemeral marketing ploy. It is the result of unbelievable engineering to create an unbelievable product as well as unbelievable innovations in business model and customer care. Simple example: Not for profit servicing, a business innovation that is aligned to customer satisfaction and building reliable vehicles. End result - more demand at better margins and a cultural advantage over Big Auto to drive vehicle innovation and not design compromise as a profit center.

    There is almost nothing that I can point to that has not been thought out from the ground up as the best way to do something rather than some iteration or tradition of the old way of doing things.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Um, Julian Cox articulated my point better than I did.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Don't worry guys, we're not going to snippy you. The user in question was banned due to several violations of our terms of service.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thank the Mods.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    @Monsoon, that is kind of you.

    OK. I have been looking into this Simon Sproule hire because this is an area that absolutely fascinates me.

    There is something special here. First of all, this man is very bright.

    Back in what must be 2009, Sproule produced a piece of disruptive innovation at Nissan in the field of marketing communications.

    Essentially Sproule in-sourced the role of content creation, internal journalism and reporting if you will - actually built a studio at Nissan and enacted a policy of producing a continual stream of rounded stories from Nissan for social and mainstream media uptake.

    In the context of Tesla, less so at Nissan, this kind of approach holds the key to an awesome amount of power, considering the fact that with Tesla there is a considerable amount of pre-loaded social media and online interest in the brand. In other words, an overwhelming appetite for Tesla content.

    The result of that kind of approach will be a greater quantity and quality of accurate consumer education and media reporting (that will improve the demand-side fundamentals of the business globally) as well as the ability to constructively pre-empt and address disinformation attack on the business.

    What I feel personally, is that the rate of expansion of the geographic footprint of the business is currently stretching the limits of Elon Musk's personal celebrity to align consumers to the theme and purpose of the Tesla. It is also true that to an audience for which a 70K + EURO vehicle is an extravagance regardless of merit, the life story and humanitarian aspirations of the $Billionaire behind it can get hard to relate to at a distance, especially amongst cultures where the American dream is alien if not positively noxious from a marketing standpoint. In these instances it can be valuable for the corporate persona of a caring an innovative company to take the lead from the personality cult of a caring an innovative $Billionaire. Most Brits for example came to take an interest in Steve Jobs via a positive experience with Apple and not vice versa.

    I also feel that it is due if not overdue to level a disciplined and strategic mass-communications infrastructure at what will undoubtedly be a battleground for hearts and minds between the greater good that Tesla stands to do, and the tragic countermeasures against that good emanating from special interests to ignorance to malice that will escalate as Tesla starts to threaten to take meaningful market share from Big Auto and Big Oil.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    The Norwegian Labor party, which is also usually the biggest but not at the moment in government, wants to keep the tax free rules for EVs. They also want to increase the price of gasoline, which currently cost over $2.5 per liter.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Seriously Julian, the best words I've seen given to the subject of what Tesla has accomplished, it's strategic advantage and future potential, a beautiful read! - deep bow to you -

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  • 1/1/2015
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    Thanx JC for your post, most of which i think is spot on. I tend to disagree on the part of the autonomous car. Mercedes Benz just completed successfully (Neue Z�rcher Zeitung 13.3.2014) a trip from Stuttgart to Pforzheim without a driver. We have not yet seen anything from Tesla on autonomous driving car but announcements from EM. Which i think is perfect, since it will be the field of the future. Here the other manufacturers are not sleeping.
    I totally agree, that Tesla is miles ahead when it comes to EV's. I have the feeling, that other manufacuters are trying to avoid the competition, bringing some of the plus points of Tesla to their cars in a different way. Hence the bigger touchscreens and integration of iOS and other details as seen at the Geneva Motor Show. It won't be long and we will see a copy of the doorhandles � la Model S. At least in Europe they might be successful with this strategy, because for most people the real advantage of a long range EV (meaning TMS) is not yet visible, and the SC Network has to be much denser to be viable. In other words, Europe still didn't got it. This will IMO strengthen the position of Tesla in the long run, widening the gap. In the short term, sales will continue to disapoint (at least my expectations).
    Tesla has strong competition, but the battle is not faught on the field but behind the scenes. It appears, that Big Oil and Big Car make it difficult for Tesla to find locations for SC and Service Centers ( yes this is a conspiracy theory, based on rumours, but from sources i have no reason not to trust).
    Based on this feeling i would not be surprised to see further pressure on TSLA the stock, until really positiv news bring it back on a upward channel.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    @100thMonkey - thanks.

    As I said earlier

    "There is almost nothing that I can point to that has not been thought out from the ground up"

    Well there was something: That was the over-exposure to inaccurate misreporting in the mainstream news media and online and basically permitting speculation on several topics from environmental credentials to demand figures to descend outright FUD attack in an information vacuum. (Not complaining when the result is an engineered short squeeze to pay for a big factory but sometimes I can't help but feel that a less volatile media cycle would be an aid to the pace of consumer adoption now that they have the cash to bring forward additional Model S production capacity to absorb it).

    Tesla has just found itself what must be the     only CVP of marketing from the world of Big Auto that has a plan to insource media content creation, and actually understands that success in online media is something very different from setting up a FaceBook page and buying 100K likes from a click farm.

    Looks like Tesla has a decent chance of going on the offensive from April 2014 with pre-emptive in-house generated social and mainstream media information content. I like watching the SpaceX in-house web casts of their launch operations. Who would not like a regular feature virtual factory tour of Tesla with the chance of a pertinent executive comment, Supercharger unveilings, celeb vehicle hand-overs, examples of someone's solar powered Tesla villa...

    - - - Updated - - -

    The Mercedes system looks very impressive indeed. As a matter of fact the Nissan one does not look too shabby either (although that is self-described as in its infancy with a target launch date of 2020).

    What I don't know is if the Mercedes sensor suite is commercially affordable (or any target date for launching it at any price). What I do know is that Mercedes head of electronics Harald Kroeger is on Tesla's board.

    It is therefore hard to imagine that Musk is claiming the likely ability to come to market with a system ahead of a program controlled by one of his own board members without having his facts straight.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    They just raised $2 Billion last week. While there may be conspiring on the part of big Car and Big Oil to push them down, money talks and Tesla has a lot to spend. I don't personally see this as one of the big risks to TSLA. More risky I think is executing their business plans in a timely manner. If S ramp up, X development, gigabattery factory buildout, or Model E dev. slips much against published timelines TSLA could correct. This is my biggest concern.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I'm not clear on your point. Until I clicked the link I didn't know he was the same guy who spams SA with his crappy videos.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    sorry my sense of humor can be strange. just pointing out we are all driven by compulsions whether the posters posting his videos, your watching them knowing they are bad, my pointing out your compulsion is my compulsion, the moderators moving the post. dont think too much about that one, meant no offense.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    No offense taken, but my only "compulsion" is to verify that he is "Investary group" and then report him as spam.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Elon also spends half his time with some of the best avionics and guidance/control systems engineers in the world at SpaceX. Launching autonomous multi-stage vehicles to dock with an object flying at 27,000 km/hr is not an easy task. With the confidence of his statements regarding autonomy, I think people are underestimating how far along autonomy R&D is at Tesla.

    Btw some very well articulated points in the last few pages Julian, bravo!
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I'd love to hear how far R&D has progressed at Tesla, not only on autonomous driving but also a finalized Model X, alpha of Model E, and the partners in the Gigafactory. I personally don't doubt the capability of EM and the team, but i strongly believe the absence of info puts downward pressure on the stock. Our perception / insight and public views are two different animals.
    The biggest risk, i agree, is execution to perfection and keeping up with timelines. But i wanted to make a point, that thinking there is no competition, because Tesla is technically far ahead, is a misconception.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Happy Norwegians !
    Our Swiss Governement wants to impose a new tax on EV's (500 CHF/ year = almost USD 600 !) instead of promoting them with some kind of incentive. The rasoning ? Since EV DON't use gas, they do not contribute to the gas tax which is huge ....
    For me just another sign how desperate the lobbying against Ev's has become. Hopefully this will never pass.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I don't disagree at all execution is a huge risk, especially with regards to timelines slipping by trying to tackle so many things at once. I think from a higher level view competition is not that big an immediate risk because the probability an established automaker will completely leapfrog them is low, and even if so would more likely eat into the ICE market share rather than Tesla's (again, in the short term). Agreed on short term price pressure if no updates come out though.

    Edit: Woohoo, hit 100 posts!
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  • 1/1/2015
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    To me that's simply part of an overall approach of generating profit through a high gross margin in exchange for offering value to the customer through minimizing TCO on an excellent product. The sales-to-service structure, not-for-profit servicing, pay-up-front Supercharging and free mobile data are all examples of that.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Julian - what is a CVP, please? Thanks.
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    Corporate Vice President [ WAG = Wild Ass Guess :) ]
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I think that it doesn't really matter what they do in Q1. If they deliver 6,400, then Tesla will still have to deliver another 30k cars to meet their guidance number (adjusted for sandbagging to 36.5k, and will probably crush that number as well).

    That is 10k per Q in Q2 - Q4, so they are going to have to ramp up quick and I would imagine at least 9,000 deliveries in Q2, 10k in Q3, and 11k in Q4 or something like that.

    So even if Q1 is only okay, I believe that Q2 guidance could be huge if they guide towards 9,000 deliveries or more. If not, then Q3 and Q4 will be huge!

    In any case, TSLA is looking really good by the end of the year. I just don't know if TSLA goes up next week, next month, or 3-6 months from now. If this economy holds up, and no force majeur event happens to TSLA, then TSLa should be in a very good position to begin 2015.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Agree with sleepy. In fact I'll punch a little further in that I believe there will be a force majeur over '15 and '16 that will transform both EV(TSLA) and Solar into predetermined conclusions
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  • 1/1/2015
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    It is happening right now and nobody even noticed it:

    Russia wins "referendum" to annex Crimea.
    US most likely will implement economic sanctions on Russia as soon as tomorrow.
    Russia to withhold its oil and gas shipments to EU and other countries.

    How to ensure that something like this never happens in the future?

    Very simple answer:

    Solar and battery storage!!!

    Solar is really cheap already, the expensive part of it is bureaucratic BS if you want a residential system. Battery is expensive, but Elon says that they can get under $100 per kWh cost by 2022.

    Solar is also a matter of national security. It is not just about going "green".

    Solar is such an obvious option that it is mind boggling to me that our leaders haven't come to this conclusion yet. The old way of building power plants and transmission lines is not the way to go.

    The technology is here to change and there is no reason to hold back. Also, nobody wants to see transmission lines in their back yards. And there is no reason to build transmission lines anymore if we can get battery technology widespread and economical.

    This is such an obvious thing to do and I can't believe that the US is not focusing all of its efforts to go in this direction.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I recommend you read the book "Internal Combustion" for the answer to your question.
    The same thing has been going on since we burned wood, then coal, the used horses, then moved on to oil & gas, it's been going on for thousands of years...

    Internal Combustion: How Corporations and Governments Addicted the World to Oil and Derailed the Alternatives: Edwin Black: 9780914153115: Amazon.com: Books
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I really hope this latest Russian standoff pushes the EU even more towards solar and wind for everyday power generation. Germany is already a big proponent, I even heard of an intiative to build huge solar power plants in Northern Africa and supply up to 15% of Europe's energy from there.

    However, I do not know if solar could be the answer to the main usage of the Russian gas in Europe: heating. My country imports about 60% of the gas from Russia, through the Ukraine, others in Easten Europe do more, but even Western Europe is somewhat exposed. We can have pretty bad winters over here and I doubt we have enough sunshine to switch everyone to electric heating in, say, January or February.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I am not sure if the main usage of natural gas in Europe is for heating; maybe it is but I doubt it. I would assume that a lot of it is used to run natural gas power plants and/or cars that run on gas (most these run on propane or butane so I am not sure if that is imported from Russia as well).

    The key is that solar would reduce dependence on oil as well as natural gas.

    Many decades from now when battery storage becomes cheap, you will probably be able to put a big solar system on your roof with a big battery storage device next to your house. You can then run electricity and electric heating during the winter without the need for any oil, gas, or other fossil fuels.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    1. In EU definitatly Natgas is mostly used for electricity generation (http://www.seec.surrey.ac.uk/research/SEEDS/SEEDS143.pdf)

    2. I'd be very careful about making predictions about details "many decades from now" :) I guess one thing that is very likely is that there are not going to be bi battery storage devices next to houses. I don't know what we will have, but likely not that.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I think looking at natural gas can be a bit tricky. You may ask how much of the gas is used for heating, and get a certain figure. But if you look at it from another angle you may ask how much of the heating is relying on natural gas.This EU estimate says 45% of the EU-27 residential heating is based on gas. I know that for countries of the former Soviet block this percentage is even higher as we had cheap and easy access to Russian gas. A Wikipedia page on Hungary's energy consumption (I could link it, but I doubt you guys read Hungarian :tongue:) says 60% of our heating is from natural gas, while we also have a really high number, 17%, for District Heating (central heating for many blocks of buildings), which no doubt relies heavily on gas too. (Some of it is from burning waste). There are 3100 settlments in the country (from city to village), and 2600 of them are connected to the natural gas pipeline network. The peak gas consumption in the winter is 60-70 million m3 per day, which no doubt makes out the majority of the 13 billion m3 of gas usage per year. (We normally heat from late October to mid March.)

    So that's what you would have to replace with solar. I found some data on the total number of sunshine duration per month in Hungary. In the Summer it gets as high as 270-300 hours/month, in the winter it is 40-60. (I know some of you are reasearching solar energy as well, so if you are interested here is some official data on solar radiation for my country in English by the National Meterological Institute)

    While i have all the confidence in Tesla's energy storage buinsess in the long run, I do not see how one could store elecricity generated by solar panels in June-August for heating in February. Especially not on this magnitude.

    Of course, one could say the EU should build those solar farms in Northern Africa, hell, make them 5x bigger, and have all the solar energy from there during the winter. But that would be just as risky for energy independence as Russian gas, subject to local or internation power plays.
    �
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    guest
    Another data point re sector usage:
    figure_45.jpg
    �
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    guest
    Is it windy in the winter? I would think wind turbines + energy storage would be the way to go.
    �
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    One possibility within one decade is gas heating will be replaced by fusion power.

    Lawrenceville Plasma Physics expects to demonstrate scientific feasibility of their small-scale fusion generator within 12-18 months, and have a prototype within 5 years. Then they plan to license the technology non-exclusively to large manufacturers, who will have incentive to ramp up mass-production quickly to gain market share. In 10 years, the rapid ramp could be underway.

    We'll know more about the likelihood of this scenario this summer, when LPP begins testing their new electrodes that should eliminate plasma contamination that has been holding them back. If their fusion yields dramatically improve, as expected, you will hear a lot about it in the mainstream media.
    �
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    guest
    Let's bring this discussion back to TSLA, please -- there are other places on TMC to discuss the future of the energy sector.
    �
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    guest
    here is a link to the new Goldman Sachs report on the website scribd which Lump had posted on the short term thread. I created a free account on scribd and downloaded the report. I did some quick research on scribd and they seem to be an established website with a business model that contracts for copyrighted material (fwiw, I suspect Goldman themselves may have decided to temporarily put the report up on the website).

    the report may have some helpful fodder for discussing Tesla's long term outlook.

    Tsla Goldman


    update: having read the Goldman report, I'd say if you read it, read with caution... I think they wanted to try to shape opinion on Tesla for their own purposes, and then formulated scenarios with some dubious assumptions to paint the picture they wanted to project (the picture may be "yes, Tesla may be appealing, if you think they will be building over 3 million cars/year in a decade... we think there's about a 15% chance of that, while there's a 25% chance the shares are worth $66"). so, read carefully (i.e, the amount of dilution, the discount rates), and note footnotes, for example the ones on page 4 that indicate the future share price in the chart is not a 2025 price projection but rather an average of 2019-2025. fwiw, I think they did this to minimize the extent a reader would notice their outsized share dilution and discount rate assumptions (if you spend some time looking at their charts this will make more sense).
    �
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    However, I think he's fundamentally wrong about there being a negative impact on wealth. I think it's quite the opposite since electric vehicles improve efficiency in multiple ways, and the resulting increases in efficiency improve human productivity to increase wealth. What it could do is move wealth.
    �
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    It's kind of an abstract argument he is making, since wealth is hard to define. It seems overall wealth is constantly increasing in the world, the only thing you can do is shift it's distribution. Sort of like energy that cannot be destroyed only transformed between different forms. I do agree with him however that there is an inevitable evolution taking place. And if wealth is bein shifted I like the way it's shifting in to my account ;)
    �
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    Kesarios makes an interesting argument, but I think he understates the time scale. The world has a tremendously large installed base of gas- and diesel-fueled vehicles. Even if every single car sold beginning in 2015 were an EV, there's at least a decade-long off-ramp. But we know that the ramp is going to be much longer: it seems wildly optimistic to me that even 10% of cars and light trucks will be BEVs by 2020, and the conversion rate for large vehicles will be even slower. Therefore, the wealth destruction is more on the scale of 50-100 years, which is so slow as to be unimportant for most companies.

    The dealers are a special case, however, because their continued existence depends heavily on legal constructs. I'm 100% certain that auto dealership owners earn far more economic rent than their services justify. They know this, too, which is why Tesla's direct-sales approach is so threatening to them.
    �
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    guest
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    They could be rich Prius owners :wink:
    �
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    Or were poor prius owners who invested in tesla and are now rich tesla owners :tongue:
    �
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    Now there's a couple of thinkers! I'll bet you're both right

    - - - Updated - - -

    Edit
    �
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    quote_icon.png Originally Posted by Jonathan Hewitt viewpost-right.png
    Or were poor prius owners who invested in tesla and are now rich tesla owners :tongue:


    quote_icon.png Originally Posted by JRP3 viewpost-right.png
    They could be rich Prius owners :wink:


    �
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    I'm not rich and I'm a Tesla owner ;)
    �
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    Some people might disagree with your statement and estimate of yourself as 'I am not rich'. Or some people might say that you are 'the exception that confirms the rule'.

    Most people living in 1st world countries with decent education may be classed as rich, or perhaps 'well off' rather than rich :biggrin:

    The more I think about it, the more I agree with bears argument that people who buy Tesla are well off (for now), but I would not put it in the same terms as bears like to put it - 'rich person's toy'. The term toy is used to diminish the car.
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    It depends on what you consider "rich". Certainly by US standards financially responsible middle class can and do afford to buy a Model S.
    �
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    �
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    I suppose one could argue that any vehicle purchase beyond basic transportation is a "toy". Why buy a Camry when a Corolla will perform the same function?
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    In terms of the fundamentals of Tesla in regard to "rich man's toys:" it is worthwhile to remember that the cost of entry to buy a Model S is relatively high, but thereafter the cost of ownership drops dramatically below that of any gas car, in the areas of fuel and maintenance. I have had my Model S for 11 months, and 22,000 miles. It was a huge stretch for me to buy the car. Few in my income "category" would even consider the purchase. However, in the time that I have owned the car, my only costs have been around $320 dollars for electricity at my house, and $45 total for charging at several KOA campgrounds over that time. Even insurance is very reasonable, only 12 dollars a month more than I was paying for my 2003 Acura.
    I live in Northern Wyoming, far from superchargers and service centers. I recently drove the Model S to visit my daughter in California, spent an extra two weeks travelling around the west coast visiting friends and family. Total miles travelled 6020. Total fuel cost: $0. While I was in California, the car needed to have seals replaced on the rear lift gate, and also needed to replace the on-board charger. I was able to get into the service center the same day, was repaired in 3 hours, during which time I was offered rental car to do whatever I needed to do. Declined the rental car so they gave me rides to and from local park with a delicious bakery/deli nearby for lunch. Cost to me: $0. (Well, except for the lunch, I paid for that.) My one other expense so far has been winter tires, which I bought together with the cool Rial Lugano wheels (that was an indulgence!).
    One other time last summer I had an issue with my rear passenger window regulator, ranger service arrived at my home next day, completed the repair and proactively replaced the other side. Cost: $0.
    So for those who watch their budgets, the Model S is a dream car. Once you are in, the cost to operate and maintain the car is very manageable. I would guess that over 8 to 10 years, the total cost of ownership of the car will be comparable to a gas car in the range of $40k.
    In my particular case, I had saved $30,000 toward purchase of a new car. Invested that sum in shares in TSLA stock in February 2013, and by May, I was able to purchase my car, with the originally budgeted sum having grown to 92,500 which I paid for my S85! (Ok, so I got lucky.)

    I can say without hesitation this has been the best purchase I have ever made. I drive the car everywhere, use it for work, for hauling, for camping, or just for going for a sunset drive. The pleasure I have gotten for the money is beyond anything I have ever owned. Worth every penny! And from now on, it is literally paying me back through savings. The Tesla Model S is an awesome piece of work!

    So the notion that the Model S is a "toy for the rich," is completely off base in my particular case. The car is phenomenally practical and reliable. It has served every need that I have had. Has also performed amazingly well in severe winter conditions. I suspect I am not the only person who has had this experience.

    The cost of ownership over several years falls right in line with cars that have much lower price tags.
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    @imherkimer
    an excellent point and testimonial- no coincidence Elon envisions a very strong pseudo-lease market that extends the market range- I imagine the GENIII range may extend down similarly
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    "Rich man's toy" is very clever bear argument used to portray Tesla car buyers in a particular way. Here is my thinking behind this ploy: The whole population of world drivers is huge. That is the market that car manufacturers, including Tesla, are trying to win. Majority of drivers buy a car as a necessity. Very small subset of very wealthy drivers buys cars as 'toys'. Some very wealthy individuals fill their garages with all sorts of exotic cars. By labelling Tesla car 'a toy for the rich', bears are implying that only such individuals will purchase Tesla car. Bear conclusion: 'Necessity' drivers are not the market that Tesla can enter. Market for Tesla cars is extremely small and Tesla is doomed. Bears convictions are as strong as bull's conviction.
    Any un-disputable signs that Tesla is tapping in the 'necessity' drivers pool will propel the shares as that will destroy one of the bear arguments.
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    Your total cost of ownership may be even lower than you think, if the Model S holds its resale value better than other cars, which seems likely due to its rustproof aluminum body, long-wearing motor, upgradeable battery, upgradable software, and continuing high demand. Maybe in a few years, you could trade in for a Model E and get money back.
    �
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    Elon Musk invested into the software startup that mimics human learning. Their first technilogy "is a visual perception system that interprets the contents of photographs and videos in a manner similar to humans. Powering this technology is a new computational paradigm we call the Recursive Cortical Network" Seems to be a perfect fit for a company that is working on driverless cars!

    http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/mar/21/zuckerberg-invest-startup-brain-software-vicarious
    �
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    Look up "superinsulation", "The Super Insulated Retrofit Book", and Passivhaus standards. I'm a *huge* advocate of superinsulation.

    (Do we have a thread about home energy efficiency somewhere here?)

    If your building is super-insulated, you can easily run it off a very small heater. It's even easier to do for larger apartment buildings than it is for small houses. The super-insulation techniques were largely developed by Canadians and applied to 1850s farmhouses in Saskatchewan -- a very harsh environment with an awfully high heating need -- so Europe is MUCH easier.

    If you can afford it, superinsulate any buildings you control. It will pay off really, really fast.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Autonomous automobiles are nowhere near useable. It's much, MUCH easier to run autonomous spacecraft -- they operate in a more controlled environment. (Really.)

    FWIW, autonomous trains are a solved problem.

    Bluntly, I'll believe that they're getting close when the "autonomous automobile" can spot a white-tailed deer standing at the side of the road and realize that it needs to slow down to 10 mph in case the deer decides to jump out in front of the car. They are nowhere, nowhere, nowhere near being able to replace competent drivers. (Incompetent drivers are another matter, but don't we have enough of those without making robot imitations?)
    �
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    I'd have to disagree. To my mind over half of the drivers on the roads fall in the incompetent bracket. ;)
    �
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    Ohdeer. I just missed a couple of deers the other night, around midnight. Don't know if they were robotical, but they decided to not cross the road as I approached. I stopped anyway, with hazards flashing, because there was another car a bit behind.

    Sorry, did we just stray outside some boundary here? :redface:
    �
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    We can certainly all agree half the drivers on the road are below average.
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    I'd like to think that any system developed would have some type of infrared capabilities to spot live creatures on or alongside the roadway. There are currently heads up displays that are suppose to do that even in heavy fog at night.

    I have a feeling that any car approved to drive itself will be a far better driver than I can be.
    �
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    Polls reveal that over 80% of drivers believe they are above average. Most of the rest concede that they are about average.
    �
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    We're talking about the mean, not the median. That could certainly happen if all the "badness" were concentrated in a handful of REALLY awful drivers and your evaluation system was not a rank order (best driver is 1, second best is 2, third best is 3).
    �
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    they are, and they follow me everywhere I go... I'm sure of it
    �
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    WHO: air pollution 'is single biggest environmental health risk'

    New figures link indoor and outdoor air pollution to around 7 millon deaths a year � more than double previous estimates

    The new figures are more than double previous estimates and suggest that outdoor pollution from traffic fumes and coal-burning, and indoor pollution from wood and coal stoves, kills more people than smoking, road deaths and diabetes combined.

    Air pollution is increasingly linked with ill health and deaths in rich countries as traffic emissions rise. In the US, air pollution causes about 200,000 early deaths a year, with emissions from cars and trucks causing 53,000 and power generation 52,000, according to MIT's environment laboratory. California suffers most from air pollution, with 21,000 early deaths.
    In Europe, poor air quality is the top environmental cause of premature deaths in the EU, causing more than 100,000 premature deaths a year and costing from �300bn-�800bn a year in extra health costs, said Janez Poto?nik, the EU environment commissioner.
    Air pollution causes 29,000 early deaths a year in the UK and similar numbers in France and Germany.

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/mar/25/air-pollution-single-biggest-environmental-health-risk-who
    �
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    I can believe this. For some reason, in the US, drivers with long records of reckless driving keep getting their licenses back, and often don't get charged with anything; I've been reading studies about this. I could *easily* believe that the "badness" is concentrated in a relatively small group of repeat offenders.
    �
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    What is the timeframe when Supercharger can fully charge 85Kwh cars in 10-15 minutes? anyone willing to chime in and speculate? I think in addition to charging network availability, the charging speed is a crucial part too. JB Straubel mentioned once that full charge in 5-10 minutes is achievable.
    Tesla CTO JB Straubel Says His Company Can Charge Electric Vehicles, With No Battery Swapping, in Five Minutes | MIT Technology Review

    By charging faster, it also means that Tesla requires less charging spot per Supercharger location, because the congestion caused by the time to charge will be less.
    There supercharger network might be split into 3 area:
    - spot for batter swap,
    - spot for 5-10 minute quick charging
    - spot for parking, which probably will have achieve 180 Kw/H charging rate by then
    �
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    I don't expect to see a 10-15 minute full charge any sooner than 5 years, probably not even in 10 years. Partial charges, maybe.
    �
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    Anybody know Dr. Menahem Anderman of AABC? He runs battery conferences and has a report out about batteries and EV makers.

    Conferences - Advanced Automotive Batteries

    Industry Reports - Advanced Automotive Batteries

    Note page 3 of his report dated December 2013 that Tesla is not on the list. I assume Tesla did not cooperate with this study because Tesla wants to keep its secrets secret.

    http://www.advancedautobat.com/industry-reports/2014-xEV-Industry-Report/Executive-Summary-Selections.pdf

    It must drive him nuts that Tesla is not talking. I wonder if Tesla participates in his conferences. Attend perhaps, but probably not a presenter?
    �
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    The once-a-year negative article from Barron's has arrived this weekend. With the expected 60-Minutes story tomorrow, Monday could be interesting.

    (note: there is a paywall at Barron's)

    Tesla's Giga-Plan Looks Too Ambitious - Barrons.com


    Here are the last few sentences from the article:

    ... LG and Samsung have had losses or razor-thin profits at their underutilized factories; a $5 billion investment in a Gigafactory could yield similarly lousy returns unless Musk sells 500,000 cars annually. "What happens if the market is only a half or a quarter the size he thinks it is?" says Anderman. "Then he has a big factory running at only half or a quarter utilization, and his costs are not better than they are today."


    Given how well Model S did in its first year (2013), the strong demand Tesla is     already seeing for the Model X, how well the Nissan Leaf is currently doing, there should no surprise that Tesla could sell more than 500,000 units per year by 2020 after Gen 3 matures. Given the performance and the quality of the Model S, understanding that Tesla is very much production constrained (in 2013/2014/2015/2016), I suspect current underlying demand for the Model S is well over 25,000 units per year in the USA and 2x that for the ROW. Model X will ramp even faster because of the groundwork laid by the Model S.

    As battery cost goes down, the TAM of EVs is pretty staggering. By 2020 the world will be producing cars at the rate of 100 million per year. There are 800 million cars on the road today. By 2050 this number will quadruple to 3 billion.

    The first Gigafactory Tesla wants to build will produce about 30-40 GWh of batteries per year to power 400,000 to 500,000 EVs. By 2050 our planet will need more than 100 of these gigafactories just for the auto industry (not including what will be needed for the stationary storage industry).

    This is just the beginning of something that will take decades to play out. 500,000 EVs is just 0.5% of the 100 million cars that will be produced in 2020. Not only 100% of the capacity of the first gigafactory will utilized, by then planning will be well underway for the 2nd and 3rd gigafactories (by Tesla and others)
    �
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    It strikes me that this may be the least risky moment to invest in Tesla in a while. Yes, issues like the Gigafactory still exist, but they have existed for a long time while other issues have systematically been addressed:

    . Designing and Prototyping a new Car for a new Car Company
    . Creating a Factory to Build it (and other models eventually)
    . Having it be the best car made (seriously, I still am incredulous when I read, daily from new owners, "I test drove the Model S against a Panamera and it blew it away" - it's hard to grasp how amazing that statement is)
    . Starting a sales and distribution network that upends 100 years of car buying (with it now looking like the backwards states are falling over each other in an effort not to be the last to outlaw direct sales)
    . Exporting all the above to Europe and Asia
    . Having another vehicle imminent (Model X) that will be a bigger hit than the Model S. It will.
    . Being constantly under media scrutiny, getting screwtinized by the media all the time, and consistently blowing past it with social media, forums, blogs, and occasional interviews.
    . Inventing, producing, and implementing the Supercharger network.
    . Upgrading the car with constant software updates.
    . My fingers will get tired if I keep going...

    At each challenge, Tesla has not only solved the apparent problems, they have vastly improved things with those solutions. About 6 months ago I wrote in the comment section of an online article that I thought that going from 0-20,000 cars/year was the hardest part and going from 20,000-200,000 would comparatively be less difficult. I got raked over by a few people for that. I now see that it doesn't really matter. Tesla has been up for every challenge whether it has been more or less difficult than the previous ones. I still think the analyst who predicted $1,149/share by 2020 will likely been seen as a prophet. I know I hope he's right.
    �
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    What happens if dramatically cheaper batteries can't find a market in automotive, solar/wind storage, or consumer electronic applications?

    It will be time to hit the ski slopes of hell.
    �
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    Important to note that the gigafactory won't likely need the full $5B to get off ground. I'm sure that there is some significant amount that will be staged in
    �
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    If Panasonic don't cooperate (which I can understand if they don't), Elon Musk will find other partners.

    His first principle says "others are making batteries, we can & will too".

    He has shown a propensity to make if he cannot buy at a reasonable price over and over again.

    One way or another, it's going to get done. Batteries will be made. Costs will be driven down.

    The inflection point is near (somewhere below $200 per kWh).
    �
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    Indeed. Some people seem to think Tesla and partners will need to write a check for 5 billion the day they start building the factory. Of course nothing could be further from the truth.
    �
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    "Tesla and partners will need to write a check for 10 billion the day they start building the factory" would be further from the truth.

    :)
    �
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    smart-ass
    (Gotta love it, nice one :) )
    �
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    Times infinity :tongue:
    �
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    Better than being a dumb-ass, (Said by an ex-teacher I know well, to a student who called her on a muttered "smart-ass").
    �
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    :) :)
    �
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    Worth a read. Honda it seems has come to many of the same conclusions as tesla + solar city.

    Except for fuel cells that is

    Log In - The New York Times
    �
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    Actually Leno was negative about EV's previous to that, and made the ridiculous statement that EV technology had not changed since his antique Baker electric car had the same range as many modern EV's. Of course he neglected to mention the Baker electric had the performance, safety, and amenities of a golf cart. At least he finally realized his errors.
    �
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    Thank you sharing this amazing video. But this video reminded me of what an idiot I am.

    I am an idiot for not seeing this video that was filmed in October 2012 ... 2012 !

    I am an idiot for not watching Jay Leno every night.

    I am an idiot for not researching TSLA stock in early 2013 when all my neighbors were buying the Model S.

    I am an idiot.
    �
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    I did all those things, and I'm still an idiot- certifiable. Apparently, there's no correlation- I think you're in good shape!
    �
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    ... said the "certifiable idiot" ;-) That must feel very helpful.
    �
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    Ha Good point. :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
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    Thanks Hummingbird. I was just able to access the article for free by googling the title.

    It's a silly thin bear case for anyone that's following Tesla, basically relying on disqualifying Tesla's future success by suggesting 1) 500,000 cars/year is quite a jump from 35,000, 2) Tesla will be hampered by competition from other automakers.

    there are some interesting comments from people they interviewed about pricing trends for lithium ion batteries.

    update: this is the comment in the article I found most interesting:

    But Wolfgang Bernhart, an electric-car expert at the Stuttgart, Germany, office of Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, believes that Tesla's current deal with Panasonic could provide lithium cells for about $185 per kilowatt-hour at volumes of 50,000 cars a year. Technology improvements and the Gigafactory's scale might cut that to $130. Other industry experts guess that battery packaging and electronics would add another $45 per kilowatt hour�for a total Gigafactory cost of about $10,000 for Tesla's base 60-kilowatt-hour battery, versus a possible $16,000 in today's plants.

    not sure I've seen any mainstream media articles suggesting kWh costs this close to what TMC members have suggested.
    �
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    One popular bear comment lately has been that Panasonic might not spend $1 Billion to buy into the Gigafactory because of fears about future demand for Teslas. The line of thinking goes No Panasonic, no gigafactory, no future for Tesla. What these people miss is that Elon will move mountains if necessary to get that Gigafactory built. How many billions of dollars worth of Tesla stock does he own? Would the man who is cutting spaceflight costs by 90% sit back and watch his investment in Tesla dwindle because one player is reluctant to jump in? Hardly! He will find a solution, whether it is substituting another battery maker for Panasonic or hiring the top men in battery production and bringing them to Tesla to start an in-house battery company. One way or another, he's going to get the GigaFactory on track, and I suspect he's going to do so sooner rather than later.

    Once the details of the GF are announced with player commitments, watch the stock price run to a new ATH. The GF is the last piece needed for getting Model E and the big plan for Tesla moving forward.
    �
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    Leno has done a number of positive pieces about EVs, including the Roadster, which was prior to his Model S review. I am no fan of Leno, but I do think that he is one of the few car guys who REALLY "gets it." He's a classic car guy through and through but understands that EVs are a great advancement, inevitable and necessary and positive, and even said in one of his reviews that other car guys should be thankful for EVs because it's ridiculous to be wasting gas driving your Camry to and from work when classic cars need that gas to run. Such that everyone should be driving EVs daily, and that this is no threat to the classic car guys who take their old muscle car out on the weekend, or whatever else.

    Maybe he's made negative statements about EVs, before, but I haven't seen them. I think he's been quite insightful in every bit I've seen where he talks about modern EVs or his Baker EV.

    (but if you have a link to the comments you're talking about, I'd be interested to see it)
    �
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