1/1/2015
guest there's only about 12% short to float- don't think this is much of a short squeeze - some short covering no doubt, but this is largely the GS backing is all I can conclude; Nice to have though - glad to have a healthy long stock position; I almost took Cit-T advice converting to Calls but decided against it as I thought there would be a little sell the news pullback on the S-Charger announcement. good move CT�
1/1/2015
guest Didn't Elon mention he plans to produce a holding company for Solar City and Space X? Doing this would strengthen both companies financial position and growth prospects. Tesla and Solar City both have tons of upside. If MM are betting a holdings company will happen, Tesla's stock going up should strengthen Solar City's stock also. Right?�
1/1/2015
guest that's an interesting thought- he may do the holding company when SpaceX goes public- I think he said that was an end of 2013 or into 2014 target if I recall. They may be laying that groundwork as part of the holding co�
1/1/2015
guest Here is a nice SolarCity Testimonial video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9n3t-U_QBJE�
1/1/2015
guest I'm scratching my head over the concept of a single holding company for both SCTY and Space X. I cannot make heads or tails out of it. What possibly could be the reason, or justification? To begin with, an investor - or an investment bank, or a Wall St. analyst - can use the business model of SCTY to place a valuation upon it. But when you add Space X to the mix.....ugh! What on earth are you supposed to do with that?�
1/1/2015
guest FWIW, I think the benefit of said holding company is to freely move cash between companies.
�
1/1/2015
guest Still going up........I'm totally lost. Does anybody have any ideas on what we are going to see in the next weeks with this stock?�
1/1/2015
guest Let's be honest. This is insane. I'm out at $50.�
1/1/2015
guest I thought it was insane last week. This went up way too quickly for my taste.�
1/1/2015
guest Going beyond 52$. This is Sparta.�
1/1/2015
guest Tryed to get out at 49.73, but sold as 48. I dont think the announcement tmrw has anything to do With SCTY. But I think some investors belive so.
Shouldnt have done that thou
�
1/1/2015
guest 51 ... insane�
1/1/2015
guest I'm out as well. D*mn! I had created a good position in the expectation of it becoming a core long-term holding, but I can't justify these levels at this stage.�
1/1/2015
guest is this a heavily shorted stock?
I heard it had the highest short % on the entire market.
Is this true?�
1/1/2015
guest This stock is absolute Bananas. I definitely screwed the pooch on this one twice. Only made like 15% returns. If I waited a 2 weeks... would've doubled.�
1/1/2015
guest I was looking at this at $23 and wanted to get in but money was tied up in TSLA which was running up like crazy. Then I sold some TSLA when SCTY was around $34-$37 last week, but waited for it to pull back before investing. Today I wake up and its over $50! I have no desire to chase this stock up, but is it ever going to come back down to reasonable prices? I think TSLA has hit its top for the short term, and now I just am lying on a large cash holding because both companies have moved up too much too fast!�
1/1/2015
guest The 2013 APR 30 short interest vs. the float for SCTY was 15%. That's less than the 37% for TSLA, but still very high relative to most stocks. Short covering seems to be playing a part in SCTY's rise, as it has for TSLA. A short squeeze for SCTY may be developing due to the huge rise recently which may be inspiring margin calls. This could continue for days. These are generational disrupters of industries, and not your usual trading range candiates. As with TSLA, bailing out at a surmised trading range top could result in later having to chase a stock that's running away to the upside.�
1/1/2015
guest Lockup Expiration 6/11/2013
Sometime here is when to get in... at least that's what I'm waiting for.�
1/1/2015
guest According to below its down to about 12% now so definitely some short converting. But this isn't near high enough for much of a squeeze. . Certainly not the current doubling in price. Theres another underlying long position cause IMO with some short covering thrown in
Short Interest Stock Short Selling Data, Shorts, Stocks: Short Squeeze�
1/1/2015
guest I'm not sure what you mean.�
1/1/2015
guest Agreed. That's why I'm glad I sold my remaining Oct $22.5 calls today for a whopping 500% gain. Will sit this out for a while now, especially with the upcoming lock-up period coming to an end.�
1/1/2015
guest Yup, this thing is riding the Musk/TSLA wave much too hard, and the wave has to break at some point.�
1/1/2015
guest Still a lot of buyers... could we be past a bubble/short squeeze? It remained above 40$ all week (and often in the high 40s).�
1/1/2015
guest This is not sustainable.
Sold out and will buy back at 40 or even 30. who knows with this stock.�
1/1/2015
guest mixed feelings on the rise. i do think however it could be sustainable, if somehow part of the supercharger announcement is linked to solarcity.�
1/1/2015
guest I believe SolarCity is the main supplier of solar for the supercharging stations but this should be priced in since it's known. Unless the supercharger announcement is so great and solarcity is a huge part of it. I just don't see it though.�
1/1/2015
guest We are back above 51 in pre-market trading...�
1/1/2015
guest It's "Musk Madness" :biggrin: TSLA up in pre over $100.�
1/1/2015
guest This stock right now is a tulip, isn't it?�
1/1/2015
guest What caused the sudden drop to $45? Nice recovery, by the way.�
1/1/2015
guest the same thing that caused the rise to $45�
1/1/2015
guest Big drop yesterday. Good entry point?�
1/1/2015
guest This stock is not worth the risk yet.
I think lock-up expiration is on 6/11 meaning all IPO buyers can sell those shares on that day. Considering the IPO was $8, they are up a ton and expect a big sell off. I'd look to buy for the long term the day the lock up expires or the day after.�
1/1/2015
guest I'd give it at least a full day or two. I don't know that there is enough volume to absorb the selling that is probably going to happen in a single day.�
1/1/2015
guest With a very long time horizon perhaps. But honestly I would hold out until 6/11 lock release. I added to my long just before supercharger announcement, but only with some put protection and knowing that I'll be adding Calls on that 6/11 date. Don't think I would advise adding more till then. Even if it doesn't drop a long term add should be good there. They will report profit next report I believe and good forward guidance�
1/1/2015
guest I bought my SCTY shares in March and sold last Thursday after my position had multiplied 2.66 times. My original intent was to hold for the long run, but the June 11th expiration of the IPO lock-up caused me to exercise prudence and stand aside. I could see not only IPO buyers selling beginning on that date, but also others exiting during the preceding days to avoid any post-expiration sell-off. That of course has been happening ever since I sold my shares. During the days after the lock-up expiration I'll watch the situation settle and then consider whether to reenter.�
1/1/2015
guest I intended to hold SCTY for at least one year. Bought when the stock was at 24.
Hmmm. I am getting the whiff of some sort of radical drop with the June 11 expiration.
Fear factor! Big losses? Like down to 15 or something?
Should consider selling with urgency?
Thinking that I will just forget about it and check back to see what it looks like a year from now.
I can't believe it will be down for too long.�
1/1/2015
guest I had a note to myself to sell later in the week, because of the lockup period expiring. I was caught by surprise yesterday while traveling. Bummer. I do, however, intend to buy back in mid next week, and hold long term. I think this is another company that "the street" doesn't understand well enough to value it correctly.�
1/1/2015
guest If the share price tanks in anticipation of the lockup expiration, maybe next Wednesday will be a good time to buy Calls. Any options players have an opinion?�
1/1/2015
guest Was wondering the same thing myself.�
1/1/2015
guest I would be playing this strategy though with options only going as far as Jan14 i don't feel so confident.
I may end up buying actual shares.�
1/1/2015
guest Yep. That's my current plan. I have a core set of shares. I'll be adding LEAP calls on the lockup sell.
That would be the J14s probably a $40 strike. Remember when the J15s come up, you can roll them out�
1/1/2015
guest I bet there will be alot of ppl shorting this Stock now. It will be epic if all the IPO-holders decide not to sell, having Tesla recent short squeese in mind..�
1/1/2015
guest funny you should mention that- It's my opinion the sell-off will be much less than expected; some of the blogs confirm that SCTY folks think of SCTY tied to TSLA already, as such see huge potential for both - my guess is there will be some profit selling, but much less than the pre-selling expectation will drive the price down to. As such, I will be adding LEAPS in 2 stages - 1/2 before the 11th (assuming price remain depressed) and 1/2 after (in case I'm wrong)- If there's one thing I've learned in this investing business, it's
Assume you are wrong, and you'll usually be right about being wrong.�
1/1/2015
guest I hope it goes a little lower cause of this, anyways I will be buying at this Level, just not sure when.�
1/1/2015
guest Does anybody know when the J15s will come up?
Also, don't you need to pay income tax on your J14 gains if you choose to roll them out when J15s come up?�
1/1/2015
guest Should be later this year- not sure which cycle they are on;
yes, unless you're holding them in a RothIRA, count on tax when rolling them out�
1/1/2015
guest I'm waiting for expiration to get back in. I'm expecting a big drop followed by a nice recovery as soon as all the selling is done.... If I'm right it will be tricky to get in at the right moment though...any ideas on what a good price point could be?�
1/1/2015
guest I would like something in the low 20s, but I think I'll start putting money in around 30 to make sure I get something in.�
1/1/2015
guest Yeah I guess the best strategy is to get in gradually. Low 20s sounds very optimistic, I can see a lot of people making this play and dampening the drop quite a bit...but who knows... after all if you bought at 8$ and need the money selling at 20$ still sounds pretty good.�
1/1/2015
guest Careful planning on a lockup to lower prices. Quite few stocks this year come to mind that didn't drop on lockup expiration. FB didn't drop, WDAY didn't drop. It's almost too obvious of a play.�
1/1/2015
guest 82% of the shares are restricted: that's a BIG increase in offer! It will be interesting to see what happens but I'm afraid the odds of SCTY going down are pretty high. The question, I believe, is if/when/how it will recover...�
1/1/2015
guest If is yes. When is now. How is fast�
1/1/2015
guest The most difficult thing, as almost always, is the timing. When to buy in (if that's what your going for), or in my case when to sell the puts?
BTW: Big shout out to aznt1217 who brought me the news of lock-up expiry on June 11th. I sold all my calls, for crazy profit, and bought puts that are now showing nice gains already.�
1/1/2015
guest Right, but if you haven't noticed SCTY has already fallen over 20% this week alone. People have already been selling in anticipation. Doesn't mean it won't fall more after the restrictions are lifted, but it isn't a sure thing.�
1/1/2015
guest Exactly. I know I've noticed. Hence my post above that When is Now and a reformed strategy for adding Calls (going to add half before the date and half after). I think at least a significant part of the sell off we've seen is in anticipation of the date. Further we know next report will likely be first profit report and so do the insiders that have the stock. If is sells off much more they may not sell and just wait a month- that's what I would do. To the degree that's true your best price will be the run-down in front of the date�
1/1/2015
guest Absolutely. I was slow selling but am still happy with the profit I got. Converted my SCTY position into TSLA (90$) which turned out to be a good play.
Yep. Nothing is certain but death and taxes. Also, of the 82% of restricted stock a lot are owned by Elon & others (>30%) and I doubt they will sell anything.
No matter what happens....this will be a risky one: audentes fortuna iuvat.�
1/1/2015
guest SCTY closed at $35.97 today. This is 32% off it's all-time high of $52.77. Seems like a decent time to get in if holding long-term.�
1/1/2015
guest I agree. I'll be putting on some J14 Calls Monday before the lock up date expires Tuesday�
1/1/2015
guest What strike are you looking at?�
1/1/2015
guest No problem. We are all friends here at TMC eh? I have a feeling SCTY is going to take a while to recover... then recover around the beginning of Q3. Need to let the craziness settle.�
1/1/2015
guest To my surprise, my limit order for some Jan'14 $30 calls got executed today while I wasn't paying attention.
But it's ok, I don't believe for a moment that there will be a big sell-off on June 11. Stock already dropped more than 30% from its high.
Knowing my own greediness, I think there are people like me who got the stock at close to IPO price, having seen it reach the $52+ level, who will want to wait for the eventual retesting of the high.
It's like if you bought TSLA at $20, but weren't allowed to sell. Suppose it droppen to under $80, would you sell at that level to make 300% profit while you know you could have made close to 500%?�
1/1/2015
guest These aren't retail investors that are locked up. They are institutions and hedge funds that have very strick risk/reward guidelines. Greed isn't a factor, it is just math. If for no other reason many will need to trim their positions because the rise in SCTY has their portfolio overexposed and they need to rebalance it.
If you try to imagine what your fellow investors are going to do and think that they are like you, you are going to get it wrong. The vast majority of your fellow investors are not retail investors and behave very differently.
Sent from my Droid RAZR using Tapatalk 2.�
1/1/2015
guest Have not been following any of Solar City's Earnings reports or really reading any news on them but I just picked up 4 jan 15 leaps. First investment attempt for Solar City. I love the business model and with a big recent sell off I feel like now is as good a time as ever for some Leaps
Edit: I actually only put in an order to pick 4 up at 7.50 which was the ask at close ..... who knows if they will execute tommorow�
1/1/2015
guest Probably not since it's Sunday :tongue: (well, here where I am it's Sunday already, but if I'm right by the time you posted this in Texas it was still Saturday).
Also, are you sure you don't want to see the price action the first hour of trading before you decide if 7.50 is a good price? No-one can know, but there is a case to be made that the probability of a continued drop in price is pretty high.�
1/1/2015
guest Ok, you may have a point, and definitely more experience than I have
Or, do you think there is enough time left for recovery and a decent chance for STCY to test the $50 level again prior to Jan '14?�
1/1/2015
guest I didn't know that they released Jan 15 LEAPS for SCTY. Are you sure?�
1/1/2015
guest they're not up on my broker -�
1/1/2015
guest they were Jan 2014 Leaps .... and no I am not sure I should not wait and see what the market does ... I am sure I should wait actually lol ...at least the first couple of minutes of trading to see where the stock goes ... although my day job makes this only possible on my cell phone which is a pain .... might hold off an do it anyway .. thanks for the suggestion�
1/1/2015
guest What I do for cases like this - put in an a limit order the night before at a price that can't possibly be hit. Then you just use the phone to update the limit price the next day once you're sure. Still clunky but not as much as trying to open a whole new order.�
1/1/2015
guest +1 on that- good suggestion deonb; I've used that and similar technics for phone trades;
Also, a newly acquired iPad mini works great now for that- not too big but big enough to show chains and other trade - and isolated from the phone use, so it can stay 'lit' ready for action... just another thought�
1/1/2015
guest Wow it closed in the green today! I was expecting a first drop right before the close. We'll see tomorrow.......it's going to be a tuff one.�
1/1/2015
guest is there any way of getting the scty ticker instead of the tesla one for this thread?�
1/1/2015
guest Entering SCTY into the chart's search box essentially does the job.�
1/1/2015
guest Thanks Curt.�
1/1/2015
guest Yeah would be great to have it permanently changed.�
1/1/2015
guest Just getting pounded today with the lockup expiring. It's almost time to buy again!�
1/1/2015
guest I'm dipping my toes in a little.... any ideas on good timing/price?�
1/1/2015
guest No idea. I bought in around $18 and kept adding for awhile and even bought some options and dumped at $30 or $31. I'm waiting for it to go below $30 and if it does I'll pick some back up. I'm not convinced it will go below $30, but I'm determined to have some patience here especially since I sold out and will be paying taxes on that sum. It makes sense to wait it out for me.
These solar stocks are always nutty!�
1/1/2015
guest Below 30 would be sweet....but it would mean a >20% loss... not something we haven't already seen SCTY do in the past... but it would be intense following last week's devaluation.�
1/1/2015
guest How long can a decline last that's coming from the lock-up expiration?
as in will we see down days for a little longer or is it impossible to guess?�
1/1/2015
guest Impossible to guess.�
1/1/2015
guest Or
it's ONLY possible to guess!
My guess is it might last some days but after that the price will be effected by other events. Like pending report of first profit etc.�
1/1/2015
guest Disproven: "I guess 27.3 days."�
1/1/2015
guest Hmmm, that's one sidereal month. Any significance?�
1/1/2015
guest Not that I'm aware of.
Strong Law of Small Numbers - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia�
1/1/2015
guest Looks like we might be done with the SCTY downward trend. I'm wondering if the $35 level is a new base and it's time to start buying again, or are you guys still in wait and see mode?�
1/1/2015
guest Place your bets ladies and gentlemen... Who's in and who's out?
I'm (moderately) Long at an average of 34$.... based on guts more than anything else so I wouldn't recommend it that much (!!).�
1/1/2015
guest In and looking to buy more. I'm not sure if this is the bottom, but I'll probably pick up a few today.�
1/1/2015
guest I sold my Put protection (made $100 ta boot). I may add 1 more lot of J14 Calls to my stock position to complete my long allotment (I'll roll those J14s to J15s as soon as they come up)
It's holding up really well on a down market- so just added those J14 calls- that makes me full long - I can always add more if needed but this is full allotment to SCTY for me�
1/1/2015
guest Just added to my J14 calls, to bring my average down. Good day for SCTY so far. :smile:�
1/1/2015
guest what did you get them for mulder?
looks like we have $3.60 last trade- was that you? (those are 50 strike though)�
1/1/2015
guest Lockup expired and not much changed. What do you guys think, are you making any moves?�
1/1/2015
guest I got them for $9.60, but they are 30 strike. However, looks like I acted too soon--stock was up 5% when order went through but after that it gave up all the gains for the day.�
1/1/2015
guest I dipped my toe back in the water today. This is not an "all clear" I have no idea what is going to happen with this stock. I'm surprised we aren't in the 20s...so I wanted to put some money back to work incase I was wrong.
The 10-year story for solar is still incredibly good, so I want to make sure I have at least some exposure. I'm looking for other names in the space too if anyone has any suggestions.�
1/1/2015
guest Didn't change because the price depressed on the way to lock up exp. People probably going to wait and stagger out. I'm not touching this yet.�
1/1/2015
guest "SolarCity was upgraded at Credit Suisse to outperform from neutral. There is increased confidence California will continue to support solar generation, Credit Suisse said. Price target is now $52."
+8% in pre market. Go SCTY!�
1/1/2015
guest Citizen-T,
Here is what I wrote in another thread:
"In short I believe that SPWR is the safer investment (less volatile) and will probably perform better the scty, so it is a win-win. Although I do admit that scty is a wildcard and has potential to do better, but I have no idea how to value that company and there are too many unknowns. There is no way that scty should have a higher market cap than spwr as of today.
Sunpower has:
- Best, most efficient, longest lasting, lowest degradation, best warranty, highest quality, lowest levelized cost of energy (LCOE) panels on the planet. They have the best technology and are introducing products such as C7 tracker that will generate 6-7x the amount of electricity from each panel, and will require 6x less land to purchase to build a power plant.
- Diversified across the entire world, and across product lines.
- Just turned profitable and growing bottom line quickly. Margins improving each quarter as well
- Stock is still undervalued at 1x Sales and 25x forward PE. Very low multiple for a growth company in the fastest growing industry in the world. I kind of know how to value this company as apposed to scty; although it is hard to figure out revenue recognition, etc.
- Financial backing by Total S.A.
- Great exposure to fastest growing markets in US and Japan.
I would encourage you to read the May 15 Analyst Day presentation by Sunpower; make sure to download the slides. It is a good company and is expecting a big second half of the year financially (according to CEO). They are also sandbaggers and give out low guidance, so expect them to beat in the upcoming quarters.
I could be wrong on Sunpower, but I think that the risk is moderate at best with a huge potential for returns. In the perfect scenario, I can see this stock going up fourfold by the end of next year, and I don't see it going down more than 30% at worse. Good risk/reward ratio. SCTY might go up even more, but I have no idea what to expect from that stock."
Basically it comes down to this: Spwr has significantly better panels than scty (uses YGE and TSL, i.e. chinese panels), they will last longer, with better degradation, and will produce more energy. I would definitely go with spwr panels on my own roof (and may be installing them soon). SPWR's lease option is also the better option from a financial standpoint too, but customers don't know this and I have doubts if they ever figure this out. Scty uses like 3% lease increases per year, while spwr uses 1%. So people may choose scty over spwr because it may seem cheaper at first, but when you factor in lease increases, degradation, etc. you would have been a lot better off buying spwr panels.
Another plus for scty is that they have the backing of Goldman Sachs and leases are very expensive, so you need a ton of capital. scty was able to install about 60k residential leases already, while spwr only installed 20k. Last quarter spwr said they installed roughly 2k, and that is only because they ran out of financing. They need to get their financing in order and I hope that Total S.A. (who owns 66% of spwr) will help them, but I have my doubts since they haven't done it so far. Therefore if scty continues getting $billions from Goldman, it will scale a lot quicker and grow faster than spwr. If both companies had unlimited finances, I would place my bets on spwr because they are superior panels for about the same price. SPWR says that the average lease is for 8.6 KW and that is limited by roof space. Scty using cheap chinese panels would only get 6 or 7 KW's out of that same roof.
Remember that spwr can also build a 500 MW power plant, that would require scty to install 100,000 residential systems just to make as much revenue.
I feel like spwr is the safer play, but scty might be the high potential/bubble play. Ride the bubble with scty, but don't get too greedy.�
1/1/2015
guest Thanks. I'll start doing some work on these.�
1/1/2015
guest I'm trying to understand why office park landlords don't seem to be moving quickly to solar. The typical one or two story buildings that are everywhere in CA, AZ, NC, etc...
They typically can capitalize expense/ investment over the 20-30 year time frame if they are in long haul, and if they are debt financed over 5-7 years (more typical) they should be able to "rent" the roof space to SCTY and SPWR for part of the generation income stream. I'm assuming that with flat roofs and high load/ quality electrical systems that are typical to these buildings that the install time should be less than residential, especially since we are talking about much, much larger areas.�
1/1/2015
guest Me too- that seems like it would be a strong market- I'll bet it's just early in the game and once the competitive rent pricing of those that do this starts to catch- they'll all follow like sheep-on-a-hot-tin-roof�
1/1/2015
guest I think it's easier when a business owns the building and operates a business out of it. For example, Walmart owns their buildings and runs a store out of it. So they're interested in reducing their electricity costs. Thus, it makes sense to go solar as long as they can get financing on it.
For typical office building owners, they're leasing out the building and don't really care about lowering electricity rates for the tenant. The tenant cares about lower electricity rates but isn't typically willing to sign a long-term solar lease (that's something the owner of the building should do).
Add to this that there's a huge overdemand of solar right now. The big bottleneck is the lack of financing available and the capacity of the installers.
Solarcity leads the field with residential and small business installs because they do two things right:
1. The provide lease financing. You don't need to find it yourself (ie., some other solar companies you need to arrange financing yourself via a 3rd party or partner). With Solarcity, they'll do the leasing directly.
2. The provide a turnkey service with everything done by them. Other companies will outsource various parts of the process (ie., install, maintain, lease, etc). But Solarcity integrates the whole process and takes responsibility of everything. Its their installers that install the panels. Its their people that maintain. You lease directly from them. It's the simplest and most convenient (compared with their competitors).
On a side note, in the last earnings conference call (Q1 2013), Lyndon Rive mentioned in an answer that they have enough demand from one state (presumably California) to meet all their growth targets for the next 10 years. He's claiming there is no demand problem. They're overflooded with demand. They need to scale to meet the demand (ie., installers, processes, etc) and most importantly they need to get financing lined up to provide leases. That's why the $500m deal with Goldman is so significant. Goldman signaled that they're going to spend billions over the next decade financing solar like this. It de-risks Solarcity even more.
I bought my shares in January and plan to hold for a very, very long time. I see SCTY as a $50-200 billion company in 15-25 years.
On a side note, when I first invested in January I only vaguely understood the long-term potential of Solarcity. But now I'm starting to see it more clearly. The big factor is that Solarcity will be scrambling to try to meet demand for the next 20 years because demand will likely always be greater than what they can fulfill (SolarCity's CEO Discusses Q1 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript - Seeking Alpha). I see Solarcity's competitive advantage as being the most convenient solar provider because they offer a completely seamless and integrated experience (install, maintain, lease, etc). Over time they will use this integrated approach to drive down costs more (similar to Elon's other ventures of Tesla and SpaceX). This will keep them as the dominant residential and small business solar provider for many years to come.
For long-term investors, I say any big dips are buying opportunities.�
1/1/2015
guest I work in Raritan Center in Edison, NJ. It used to be swamp land that this company bought up and turned into this massive complex of warehouses and office.s Fedex and UPS both have massive hubs here as well as a ton of other massive companies. Just recently they added solar to every single roof. I assume my landlord must be seeing nice savings.�
1/1/2015
guest Right - SCTY should get more bang for their installer time by doing bigger installs on office park roofs. Since permits and wiring are needed on a per site basis, i would think you would want to put up as much surface area per install as you can. Also i would think that the office park owners are probably more financially savvy and should be doing this if it is their best interest.
I ask b/c we are buying a new place and I'm trying to figure out to go solar now, or wait a few years (given the increases in panel efficiency). Also buy vs. lease. I could construct a rather complicate spreadsheet to model out a few scenarios, but I'd rather think this through first. I have a few friends in commercial real estate so I'll ask them this weekend and get back with my findings.�
1/1/2015
guest Today the Associated Press reported on a Friday statement issued by the Chinese State Council.
BEIJING (AP) -- China's Cabinet has announced measures to curb the country's notorious air pollution�China's new measures are intended to adjust the country's energy structure, increase supplies of cleaner-burning fuels such as natural gas and methane, raise the quality of car fuel and phase out older, more polluting, cars�The Cabinet also expressed support for the country's solar industry during its "production and operating difficulties."
Full AP article: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...MPLATE=DEFAULT�
1/1/2015
guest target 12$ http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1088432�
1/1/2015
guest Almost dumped about 20 June 22nd options this morning when it was above 104... would like to sell them and get some sept calls or maybe further out .... but I think I am going to hold out and see what tomorrow brings... The Theta is killing me on these .... or at least it will if the stock does not continue to go up daily ... the longest I plan on holding is until Wednesday ... I cant stomach holding through the announcement with so little time left on them.
They are strike price 105 contracts i bought when the stock was around 108 so just looking to limit losses on them
edit:meant to post this in the Short Term TSLA Price movements thread ... mods please move if possible�
1/1/2015
guest Ok, I got a chance to briefly talk with my commercial real estate investor friend about this. unfortunately i didn't realize i was meeting him mid-day on Saturday during a party so quality time this was not.
basically he was interested, but all his deals work in 5-7 year time horizons. this has to do with the fact that many/ most commercial loans are floating and typically refinanced / rolled over. payback periods of 10+ years are hard (but not impossible) to figure into the worldview of his limited partners (aka the big money).
oddly enough, i also came across a report that showed that NJ has the second highest (after CA) commercial solar install base.
still more work to do on this�
1/1/2015
guest Here we are back at 35$. We saw some good climbs in the last week but nothing major.
Is 35$ the new floor? Any predictions for Q2?�
1/1/2015
guest outside of macro market moves that effect all equities - that's the way I see it. It behaved weakly for a while (likely sellers from the lockdown release)- but seemed to hold well from $34 or so. A note of caution though- it may be holding up as a follower of TSLA which has shown amazing strength in this down market. If for some reason TSLA moves down SCTY may follow- I can't tell if it's holding on it's own or not frankly�
1/1/2015
guest Cramer just said to sell, sell, sell Sunpower. I don't see a world where Solarcity can succeed and Sunpower fail. IMO, both companies are poised for great success.
His street.com (or whatever it is called) had Sunpower rated a "sell" forever. It just upgraded to "hold" last month after the stock has gone up 400%. After their ratings upgrade the stock has gone down about 10-20%.
Don't listen to Cramer on stock picks, he doesn't have enough time to research all these companies he talks about. Sunpower is still my favorite, especially at these prices.�
1/1/2015
guest Almost reentering my buy number.�
1/1/2015
guest Try harder.
Sunpower could have bad management. They could have inexpensive processes. Any number of things could make them a bad provider or bad company.
SolarCity isn't tied to any individual manufacturer. At least that's my understanding.�
1/1/2015
guest I wonder if the Obama's Climate Plan (Tuesday 1:35PM Eastern at whitehouse.gov/live) will boost SCTY stock. Will he mention carbon tax? Would be great.�
1/1/2015
guest I know quite a few on this forum hold SCTY as well, but there doesn't seem to be the same depth and discussion on what is driving the short and long term for this stock as with TSLA (understandably so of course since this is TMC).
What other sources of information do you fellow SCTY investors regularly use to keep up to date on this stock?�
1/1/2015
guest +1
I've been trying to keep the discussion moving but apparently there isn't much interest... I am also looking for some other sources of info for SCTY.
- - - Updated - - -
Could be a really good catalyst... today might be a good buying opportunity to make that play....�
1/1/2015
guest +1 to this as well.
I'm glued to it, but there's not much discussion... relatively speaking, that is.
I'm using Google news and the SCTY tag to get info whenever I can. What about you guys?�
1/1/2015
guest It certainly could. The President says he will speak about executive actions to implement "a national plan to reduce carbon pollution, prepare our country for the impacts of climate change, and lead global efforts to fight it."
I first purchased SCTY in March. I then sold on May 30 in anticipation of the June 11 lock-up expiration. I bought back in today.�
1/1/2015
guest well, I cant see there can be bad News for Solarcity or Tesla. But I can really see him come With good News.�
1/1/2015
guest Indeed, and the news today about Tesla Motors Supercharger stations at CBL malls should benefit both companies, since SolarCity builds them: Tesla Supercharging Stations at CBL Malls | Business Wire�
Không có nhận xét nào:
Đăng nhận xét