Chủ Nhật, 30 tháng 10, 2016

Alternative Energy Investor Discussions part 12

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    come on csiq, you can do it :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have nothing left in CSIQ at the moment. Any good advices on strikes/dates to buy?

    I was thinking JAN 20$ for starters. Maybe creating a risk free BCS if the stock moves up significantly. Or should I go with April to get exposure to the next quarter? (Or both ;-) )
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My favourites last few days has been oct 20$ calls, and april 36$ calls. I am not gonna give advices here tho, Im just saying what I got. If there is possible to still get the 34$ Jan14 calls for 0.40 I would be all over that.

    If I had SCTY today, I would have sold all of it and got CSIQ, but thats just me. I didnt have any SCTY, so what do I know :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah JAN is probably a bit in the middle of Quarters....but I like to have some extra time. JAN calls would be a play on Q3 earnings (with some margin) and April for Q4 ER. That should be about right no? (Sorry I'm leveraging the more experienced users on the forum to avoid making stupid mistakes)



    Unrelated: SCTY is at it again................47$ resistance showing signs of weakness.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Cheers to all those who held SCTY.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The only timing I ever did right in the past two weeks was putting 1/3 of my 401k into CSIQ when It dipped to 16.98 on either Tuesday or Wednesday. I also have an APR 14 36. We'll see how that goes after November.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, dont by nov based on earnings. I did that in Q2 on SOL. Lost a ton. With JAN and APR you also get the news when they sell plants in the end of the quarters.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, I'm tempted to sell off my SCTY now before it dips too much again. CSIQ a good alternative? That's my only thought now is that I have nowhere else in mind to put that money if I sold it off.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I hope you don't get burned with "short-term" strategy. In the short run solars are extremely volatile. In the long run they will make you money.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Is the general consensus here is that the stock will dip again? Looks like there is a lot of love here for the Chinese manufacturers but not for SCTY, do you think their business model is not that good or that the company is overvalued?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If you're a buy-and-hold investor, now is not the time to sell SCTY. SCTY's announced FY 2014 guidance is off the charts. This is really big news. I doubt we'll ever see SCTY below $43 ever again. SCTY (the stock) just got the catalyst it needs to trend a lot higher.

    Also, I've shared this in detail before but personally I think SCTY is the strongest long-term play in solar (see my previous posts on SCTY).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My take is that it proves that the chinese will rise alot after earnings. Since they are valued alot lower then SCTY, in the long rund SCTY is not overvalued. But the others are def. undervalued.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks again, sleepy. I always keep your earlier advice in mind. 90% of solar positions are common stocks. My short-term is really only a few APR calls.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's not a general consensus. I am not super active in the stock market or anything like that, I'm still in the learning stages. My general feeling of everything is that what goes up must come down at some point :) So, seriously, don't listen to anything I say, I'm more here to learn.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't know why but people here are always quick to sell their winners. I don't have much of a position in SCTY, but if I had to trade SCTY I would be buying.

    There is love for Chinese companies here, because I started the trend.

    I really recommend that people do their own due diligence on these companies. I have come to my investment decisions based solely on my own personal research without any influence at all from other people on this forum or any other forum.

    I am placing my bets accordingly based on my research (which is very extensive). A lot of people can get burned here with these "short-term" options plays just as they did during q2. I came out of Q2 alright and now I am running stronger than ever, because I had a strategy and stuck to it. I also had the knowledge that allowed me to buy these companies on the cheap after their Q2 dip (while others were taking losses).

    You guys really need to spend about 40 hours a week reading conference call transcripts, earnings releases, financial statements, company presentations, etc. to make informed decisions. Don't spend your time reading forums to try to find out what to buy and when. Read the information that the company supplies and then make informed investment decisions based on your own personal research.

    I cringe when I read about people trying to figure out whether a company will report earnings before Nov. 16th so they can buy November call options instead of December options. :cursing:

    - - - Updated - - -

    DaveT beat me to it.

    There you go, now is not the time to be selling SCTY.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Got some 19$ strike calls for Jan and Apr... just dipped my toes in a little....I'll see what happens monday... I have a feeling the U.S. government still needs some time to fix its problems. If I am right monday we might have better prices. What I bought today will make sure I don't regret waiting until then.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well I was slightly hedging today the fast runup of SCTY. Half of my position got hedged at about $46 making a risk free spread for January. And the other half is something that I keep around for possible pop from ER. Not even bothering to look when it is, but considering the volatility of solars I've tried to have multiple contracts everywhere so that I can hedge some parts of the position giving me guaranteed profits on half of the position and running longer with the other half.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks DaveT, Norse, JGard, and sleepyhead. I definitely prefer a "buy and hold" strategy and I do tend to stick with winners (have been riding Tesla stock since $30), and you have just reassured me that there is nothing inherently wrong with SCTY so I'm keeping it, too :) Going to sell some of my more conservative stock and invest in Chinese companies, too.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    While true, I think there's going to be one more dip. This pop is driven by so many things. They just bought a company, bumped guidance, and early released some Q3 key metrics. I nibbled (very little) today. My question is... why did they release some of those Q3 metrics?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Here is a quick question for everyone investing in these solar stocks.

    Which company's logo is a red and orange sunburst? Which one is an Orange colored sun? Which one uses a red dot to indicate the sun? What are their corporate colors? Which one has a picture of a canoe on their website? My hopes is that I will at least get you to visit their websites, preferably visit the IR portions of their websites also. Oh yea, and who uses a different domain for their IR website?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Driving now, but Canadian Solar is the answer to the last question.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Dude, texting and driving is even more risky than investing in solar stocks. And probably illegal...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I can say again I do not think SCTY is overvalued, but I think the upside on other solar companies might be greater. If I had scty and alot of money I would not sell SCTY, but since I havent, and I would like to go to the companies with the best upside. The reason I didnt have SCTY, was that I had to sell some stocks in a rush to get back in at Tesla on friday. I actually thought I had both stocks and options, but seems to me I sold em all last friday. If someone ask and get an answear it wouldnt allways be correct, if anyone here knew they would go margin and be millionaires in a week. Im going allin atm with my winnings from TSLA, I also used to play poker for 15 years, so I obv gamble more than others.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    How about a friendly wager?

    I still say that SPWR will have a higher market cap in the long run. Let's use closing price on Dec 31, 2019 as the cutoff date.

    I will bet you $1. Must be delivered in person.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Money making opportunities are all good. Investors do not need to chase the highest performer, but to pick the opportunity he understands the most.

    I only feel comfortable with SCTY, as I use their service. I have solar panel installed by them as part of the research.

    - - - Updated - - -

    That said, I play a short term bear call spread on SCTY, just for the next couple of days, from a pure technical trading perspective.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Today's SCTY price action was all about FY 2014 guidance, which was stellar and beyond most anybody's expectations. It is peculiar they pre-announced this before their Q3 ER. I suspect it has to do with driving up demand for the secondary offering they still haven't closed yet (announced in early August).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Pffff... There's this little feature on my phone called speech to text. It works pretty well.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Does it read the post out loud that Theshadows posted here for you as well? You know, the one that you responded to so that you didn't have to take your eyes off the road?

    There is no upside to sitting on the internet while driving.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Good luck on your play. I think that SCTY will go up 10% on Monday. Just my opinion, but I am not willing to put money on that bet.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    From which manufacturer?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Honestly, the only time I would read is when I'm stuck in traffic. I like how you put it ... "no upside to sitting on the internet while driving". Thanks for caring! :smile:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No worries. It actually bothers me because there is so many people that sit on their phones in morning traffic and they sit 10 car lengths or more behind the car in front of them for a safety cushion. Because of this traffic is becoming unbearable.

    I think they should ban all use of mobile devices in automobiles.

    Back on topic. Big week for solar next week? I say yes.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Early this morning I saw the 2014 guidance so I rushed to place my purchase order, I noticed something about the secondary but since coffee hadn't kicked in yet (4 am) I wasn't sure if that was new news or already priced in, thankfully my pre market trade was executed & todays price action was greater then I had expected, the guidance puts a strong floor under the stock & upgrades should flow next week.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am not confident with the idea of our politicians figuring things out over the weekend, however I've arranged my portfolio in a way that says I think they will. If I was more confident I would be buying a ton on margin. This way if they do figure it out I'm good, if they don't then I still have a bit of margin to use.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I post my experience on the Solar instillation thread. You should be able to find more info there.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I "dare" to play it since the loss is bounded. Many time I found myself right in the end, but since being afraid of unlimited loss I can't pull off the trade. I don't have to be right on this particular one as long as statistically I am more right than wrong over the long run.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You mean like the Model S screen? :wink:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Been kicking myself all day for not buying back in at 28. Was waiting for a fall to 26.....lesson learned: When it's close to your limit and you're sure it will bounce back, just buy it!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    That is my motto too. I never get too greedy when trying to pick up something cheap. If it is cheap enough I will buy, I never try to squeeze out that last penny before buying. Same goes on the upside. I always cash out a small portion early to lock in profits.

    If you look at the SCTY options and the 52 week high's and low's, I have the low price on the Apr14 $30's and J15 $30's at $5 and $7.50, respectively. I ended up hedging them like 3 days later at more than risk free with $35's and $40's while pocketing a 30% gain.

    It looks like I should have kept them undhedged, but that was like a month ago. I locked in an easy gain and my delayed construct spreads are going to net me another 125% return. One smart trader once said, "I made a lot of money trading because I always sold too soon."

    I quickly recycled that capital and compounded that return anyway, so that is the beauty of these delayed construct spreads that go quickly risk free. You can continue recycling capital at a fast pace and create these spreads that will definitely end up in the money as long as we are in a bull market.

    If you can create a risk free spread once a week with a 1:1 risk/reward ratio then you have a 50-bagger return in just 1 year.

    That is almost impossible to do, but not really.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So the bet will be which company (SPWR vs SCTY) has the highest market cap at end of day Dec 31, 2019? Sleepyhead takes SPWR and DaveT takes SCTY. How can I resist?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Lets make a condition that the winning company has to have a market cap of $10b.

    There are so many things that can happen that I wonder how we can make this fair. What if one company acquires someone big buy issuing stock, that would significantly increase market cap while not increasing shareholder return.

    We can't go just on market cap. It will have to be based on closing share price as of Friday and investment return.

    How about a bet which company triples return from this Friday, i.e. 300% return. So SPWR at $116 or SCTY at $188.72?

    That is a more fair bet and no time frame.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    How about we take the stock price of SPWR and SCTY on Dec 31, 2017, and see which company had the greatest stock price gain % from this past Friday?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sounds good. Bet is for $1. Winner must have market cap of at least $5b on Dec 31, 2017.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I wonder if anyone else held any of their SCTY options they bought back when it was around 40 before it started the dip down below 30 ... I had 25 options that I bought at the very top before they started to dip and held on to them because they had fallen so much in value I figured what the heck. I did not even wait to see what the news was when I received a text from my brother and friend that SCTY was up so much. Checked the options and they had over doubled to get in the green. They expired in Jan ... holding 10 more I had bought somewhere on the slide down ... I think when SCTY was around 35 that expire in Mar. It was very nice for the account to receive a large Band Aid since I have so many underwater options in TSLA right now!

    I think I am going to take some of the profits and invest in Canadian Solar after I do a little more research this weekend to make sure the fundamentals support it. (p.s. Without doing my due diligence I think Dave has this bet in the bag!) In Dec 2017 Solar City will be well on its way to becoming the largest power provider in the world (Muhahaha)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    One of my key considerations for who will have biggest market cap (and shareholders returns), and the fact that I bet on SCTY, is international expansion.

    Currently SCTY is only US based, where SPWR is international, and has Total backing them. SCTY's stock is going to pop when they inevitably announce a deal with Direct Energys parent (Centrica), expand into Europe, Asia, Africa, etc. Now with the Zep purchase they will also have a better foothold into international markets.

    I own both SCTY and SPWR, but more SCTY mostly due to the Friday 25%.

    I am ambitious for all time highs in the coming weeks.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The funniest part is the attention to the specifics of a bet for $1. It'll cost more than that to meet the condition of meeting in person to hand the $1 to the winner. And with inflation we all know that by 2019 that dollar will really be worth 60 cents or less.

    An an interesting point on the short-sided ness of the article posted above about solar and the midnight hour. To use a word from on of the other threads the us solar market is peanuts when compared to the global solar market.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And imagen the whole energy market. Its just in the beginning..
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Alright, we've got a bet.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Is anyone here a SCTY customer using them for solar energy? I'd like to ask you a question, either here in public or via PM or email. Perhaps knowledgeable investors could answer this also.

    My question is about the inverters.

    Typical inverters were large units, controlled an array of panels. The DC energy feeds into the inverter, gets converted to AC. A string of 10 (or X) panels comes into the inverter together, the inverter operates or converts energy a the efficiency of the least efficient panel. What this means is that if a panel is in the shade, all panels are in the shade. If a panel loses efficiency, all panels lose efficiency.

    I have solar panels with a microinverter provided by a company called Enphase. The microinverter converts the energy right at the panel, allows all the panels to work at maximum efficiency. If one panel goes down the remaining still work at maximum efficiency. I can monitor each individual panel online via many devices real time and historically. Enphase has recently come out with an inverter that increases maximum output from 215 to 250 watts.

    SCTY seems to have the "Solarguard" thing for monitoring. With solarguard, does this allow monitoring of each individual panel?
    Does SCTY use microinverters or the older technology?
    Can a customer buy a system from them or is it only leasing? If a customer buys, is there a recurring charge for the monitoring? (Enphase charges $2/panel/year for my residential system)
    If there is a charge for monitoring on purchased systems, how does this charge differ retail vs large scale system?
    If SCTY uses micro inverters what is the maximum output on them?

    My amateur ENPH discussion here: http://4nursebee.blogspot.com/2013/10/enph-research-and-update.html

    My direct email here: [email�protected]


    Thank you for any help you can provide as I evaluate both these companies businesses
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SPWR is already very close to a $5b cap right now. Do you actually see a possibility where both companies will fail to reach $5b in 4 years? Just curious.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If we dont raise the debt limit and a massive world recession happens then growth stocks will be hit hard :O
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    A friend of mine has a solarcity system and they must monitor each panel individually because they called my friend to schedule a panel replacement. when they arrived with the new panel, they knew exactly what panel to replace.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have an east-west system (no suitable south facing roof in No CA). My SC 16kW system uses Canadian Solar panels (63 of them) with individual SolarEdge modules on each panel to handle shading/panel failure. My understanding is that these add-on modules (which clip to the back of the panel and are in series) allow for 'bypassing' of a bad/shaded/underperforming panel. I have 4 individual SolarEdge inverters, for 4 strings of panels The inverters are large. Each inverter individually reports the entire output to SC via Solarguard (inverters send data via Zigbee protocol to a small receiver which is connected to my home Ethernet and my router to the Internet). I can see my output by the hour from each of the 4 inverters on the SC web site. If a string starts to underproduce, SC knows about it, and then they would come out, check that string, and replace the bad panel. AFAIK my system does not report which panel in the string is bad, just that the string itself is underperforming. Presumably then SC would send out a crew to check each panel in the string and replace one as needed. They guarantee my system output, as I am just buying power from them uner a Power Purchase Agreement (did not buy or lease), so it is in their best interest to keep the system performing as engineered.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No surprise the whole market is down pre. However there are some good news coming out:
    Canadian Artes Company (CanadianSolar) solar cell technology in the International Society "EUPVSEC" a speech, introduced a new generation of solar cell development situation.
    http://translate.google.com.hk/translate?sl=zh-CN&tl=en&prev=_t&hl=zh-TW&ie=UTF-8&u=http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20131014/464683.shtml

    and Photovoltaic industry rules a number of Group companies or closed:
    http://www.microsofttranslator.com/BV.aspx?ref=IE8Activity&a=http%3A%2F%2Fsolar.ofweek.com%2F2013-10%2FART-260008-8480-28733494.html

    Solar should really be up today, well see what happens.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SCTY is the ony stock I follow which is flirting with the green at the open.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SPWR aswell, and CSIQ doesnt know what to do.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, these stocks are confused and they don't know what to do. I am optimistic for this weeks in solar.

    I hope the CSIQ pre announces earnings this week. I also wouldn't be surprised to see SOL pre announce earnings tomorrow, but I wouldn't bet on that one.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, my plan here is to still be allin, tho I will sell my stocks today and have the money ready for options when a deal is done. This is aboviously not a safe play, but im ready to take that gamble, but the risk/reward is really nice IMO.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Woa....SCTY just had a 1$ drop on crazy high volume. Some big investor bailing out or a cascade of stop loss orders?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    France is banning fracking, which is good. "And that�s not just talk. France has ambitious goals for a low-carbon future and is currently considering a tax on carbon emissions and a nuclear tax. Revenue would go to renewables and energy efficiency standards. France plans to cut fossil fuel use by 30 percent by 2030, at the same time that it de-emphasizes the nuclear power that provides three quarters of the nation�s energy." This is what I have been talking about, countries will follow Norway and the others that will benefit renewable energy and EV cars.
    Read more at http://cleantechnica.com/2013/10/14/frances-ban-fracking-absolute/#C9ktwo7mkrLTUr5Q.99
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Earnings preannouncements are just speculation on my part, but last quarter we had SOL and then TSL and YGE preannounce earnings.

    Some companies gave, what I would call soft-ball guidance for Q3, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a pre-announcement. Some companies do it and some don't, I am not sure what the threshold is to preannounce.

    JKS had a stellar Q2, but they did not preannounce, since they do not give gross margin guidance (which was their main reason for a beat) and only slightly exceeded their upper end MW shipment guidance. Nonetheless they had a great quarter.

    CSIQ and SOL on the other hand do give gross margin guidance and they guided for 10%-12% and 7%-9% respectively.

    SOL had 7.3% GM in Q2 on $0.63 ASP's and $0.53 avg. cost. They guided towards $0.66 ASP in Q3 and flat cost. According to math, their GM should go up by 5% if this ASP proves true, which will lead to 12% GM. If they also ship more modules than they guided for at the top end, then we might see another preannouncement. At the same time you don't want to preannounce every quarter, because then the market will start expecting it.

    CSIQ on the other hand guided towards 10%-12% GM without any (high margin) power plant sales. They had 12.8% GM in Q2 with one power plant sale. In Q3 they will already have 2 power plant sales. This could lead to a 14% - 15% GM. I also expect them to have higher capacity utilitization rates than in Q2 (some capacity sat idle), which could increase GM by another 1%-2%. It is very likely that CSIQ will have highe ASP's in Q3, since all of the data points to rising ASP's for tier 1 Chinese solar panels. I am also hoping for some reduced costs as well. They also closed the sale of 2 power plants to Blackrock on the last day of Q3. I am not sure how these sales are accounted for on the books, but there has to be some significance to the Sep 30th. date, which the same date they closed the other 2 plant sales to TransCanada (these are accounted for on a cash basis).

    All that being said, I wouldn't be surprised to see CSIQ with gross margins near 20% in Q3. Highly unlikely, but it is a realistic possibility.

    CSIQ also guided towards 410MW - 430MW of module shipments in Q3, which sounds low to me since they had 455MW in Q2.

    If I am correct in my assumptions, then I would expect the company to preannounce earings. Then again they guided towards 380MW - 420MW and 9%-11% GM in Q2 and delivered 455MW and 12.8% GM, with no preannouncement. IMO those numbers were not quite good for a preannouncement, especially since they probably knew they were going to lose $0.40 EPS on currency exchange (which will not happen in Q3 according to my research, possibly break even or maybe even slight positive). But if they reach the 15% - 20% GM in Q3 and deliver above the high end of their MW shipment estimate, then a preannouncement would be the rational thing to do.

    This is all speculation on my part, so please do your own due diligence and do not rely on this information.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thank you. CSIQ along with SPWR doing good atm, and with some good develepment in the debt ceiling issue I think they will both preform well today. OT: something is up with KNDI today.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Norse - Only the potential reward is really nice. The risk is really not that nice :wink:

    I am actually surprised the stock didn't fall 5%+ before recovering later in the day. This is normal solar stock behavior, especially after posting a huge gain the day before. If you think this kind of price movement is discussion worthy, then would encourage you to stop looking at the intraday charts and save yourself some stress.

    Just another day at the office for solar stocks (read: huge volatility).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What is happening to CBAK? I bought it @2.05 just a few days ago and it is already $2.9, off a high of $3.5. Feels like another KNDI?
    Interestingly I look back at some of news, in June CBAK announce they produce the battery for KNDI. Now it does make sense.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I had a chunk of money to invest, and I've been trying to decide which solar company to bet on. From perusing this thread, SCTY and CSIQ are the most popular discussion points, and reviewing the companies data, all of these are a bit risky. I looked at SOL, JASO, JKS and SPWR. Instead of placing my bet on one, I decided to just bet on them all! I'm not an options trader, but rather a buy and hold type of investor. I did already have a small position in both SCTY and CSIQ. I added $30k to each of these and then $10k to SOL, JASO, JKS and SPWR.

    I suppose if any of these starts to tank, I can cut my losses and hopefully the others will have covered the loser. I'm not too worried about adding to my position in SCTY after the big gains on Friday. Gains from Friday should cover any loss from a slight pullback on the new investment (if that happens, which I hope, and I'm betting, will not).

    I just put some panels on the roof of my home this past weekend. Still need to install the inverter and get an electrician to tie it all together. It will be nice to finally be driving on sunshine (after nearly 20 years on electric powered cars).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was not surprised by the price variation, but mostly by the volume. Almost 400k shares in 1 minute when the average is well below 50k. Is that normal action?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Welcome to the world where algos run the markets.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nice to see SPWR push through the $30 mark. Heres to hoping we can get a bit of a run out of it.

    EDIT: well it did, it just broke out a bit.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So far I still haven't touched SPWR, but every time I look at the stock it keeps outperforming some of my other solar investments.

    I like their technology and products, but I am worried about their growth potential. Can someone point me towards some info about their current/future production capacity and the level of saturation of their current facilities?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Last Friday I wrote this:

    Then an hour later I posted this:

    Raise your hand, if you bought SPWR or SCTY on Friday.

    edit: SPWR up 7% today on high volume and rising fast.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SPWR was and remains my highest stake in Solar, with CSIQ behind it. Sadly i could not buy anymore of either friday like i wanted due to the botched earnings release by Micron which as sent their stock into a massive fall. I was planning on using Mircon money to put into TSLA, SPWR and CISQ. Instead i am left holding Micron to try and remain at break even with them. (or even use this mircon fall as a buying opportunity as it was only a bad earnings call. The company is stronger then ever, just like i used the SPWR Q2 fall to buy more, same could be said for MU right at this very moment)

    EDIT:
    And with this run my Jan $39s from Q2 are back to even (bought more after dip to bring cost average down) Time for some greenage.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Raises a hand half way up ;-)

    Good calls as usual. Is this rally of U.S. stocks sane though? I haven't heard of any developments regarding the debt ceiling....

    Also, do you have any of the info I'm looking for regarding SPWR?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    CSIQ is taking off. Sleepy is right on the money again. Maybe they are going to preannounce very soon.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I also had those same J14 $39's that I bought for about $0.60 or so and held on as they went up to $1.50 only to see them fall to $0.20. I ended up selling them at $.25. They are now at $1.40 and climbing fast.

    I am not too upset about that decision though, because I used the capital to invest in other stuff and have earned a great return in a different manner. In hindsight though, I probably should have held on to those.

    The reason I sold is because my wife kept bothering me every day when our portfolio was losing 10% every day for what seemed like eternity. I ended up selling at the bottom, because she was stressing me out. So I revamped my strategy to make it a little "safer" and have done well since then. Would have done a lot better with my original strategy though.

    Therefore, I opened a new account with Interactive Brokers and they give you a special key, so only I have access to the account. Now that my wife doesn't see the daily fluctuations, I can invest a lot more freely and make a lot better investment decisions. She was pretty upset about this for a while, but I kept the other account open for her to see those fluctuations.

    Lesson here is to not share your passwords with your spouses if you want to be able to always make the best investment decisions. They will ulitmately force you into making bad investment decisions.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    CSIQ might be joining the party soon.....

    Everyone seems to be buying.... makes me start thinking about selling something.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Now that is the best investment advice I've heard here...bar none!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If SPWR holds, or continues to climb then this would be my largest single day gain on one stock outside of TSLA.
    If SPWR break the $31 on volume, watch out.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am chosing between Jan14 or APR14 calls on CSIQ. I'm leaning towards Jan14 to capture a positive QE3 report, but not entirely sure. What would you guys do?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I had the same dilemma. Solved it by buying a bit of both :-D
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    well I have it simple. My wife is totally annoyed if I try to speak about funds and the stock market. As long as all is fine and we have plenty of daily funds available she doesn't care what I do with the investments.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ditto.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'd do LEAPs or common stock as sleepy always recommends. You are basically gambling when you APR 14 options. Don't play solar earnings unless you know absolutely what you are getting into.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You're absolutely right and I do already have CSIQ stock as a core position. However I do want to take a little gamble with options and I know the solar industri is very volatile. But a gamble can have good or worse odds and that's what I am trying to gauge.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    **Raises hand** Only bought 200 more shares of SPWR friday, but already had 500 shares and some options for it.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    +1 :wink:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I just received an email w/YouTube video from SolarCity regarding an apparent net metering fight about to get started in Colorado. I haven't yet read up on the background, but it seems like this could have an impact on SolarCity's efforts here.



    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am in California, but I am posting it on my facebook anyway.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I thought this article was about me initially when I saw it, lol.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hehe, I bet you contributed to some percent here, both directly and indirectly:)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I second that. I'm shifting to a balanced portfolio, 50% tsla and 50% solar. :). I still have more tsla but I have a feeling solar is going to be the winner even with a lighter position over the next month. I got
    price rises from my suppliers on csiq and tsl again this quarter ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree. While more volatile, I believe there is greater upside to solar than, dare I say, TSLA, in the next 1-2 years.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It looks like they are not us listed (yet?).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good day for solar across the board. SCTY lagging behind for some reason. I guess it's to be expected after a >20% run up though.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So how good of a possibility is there that CSIQ will preannounce earnings? When are they scheduled to announce? I can't seem to find the date.

    EDIT: Nvm I found the date. Nov 11th is what yahoo finance says.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The date is just an estimate and could be any time in November.

    There is no way of knowing if they will preannounce. I am just speculating and writing opinions on an internet forum to stir discussion.

    Nobody in their right mind would make investment decisions based on a possible preannouncement. If you like the company then buy the stock, if you don't then stay away. There is no difference if they preannounce or if they don't; this should not even factor in to your investment decision. The stock will end up at the same price on Dec 31st anyway (give or take).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    A questions to the more experienced option traders. If I would like to make a play on a positive ER from CSIQ would the best option be to buy the Nov13 which expires on the 15th of november, just 4 days after their ER or Jan14? I guess what I'm wondering is how options "usually" behave when an expiry date is so close to an ER?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just buy some Apr14 to be safe.

    - - - Updated - - -

    You don't know when they will announce earnings.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    CSIQ earnings on 11 November is a guess, if they announce earnings the 20th you might be in trouble, however the stock might go up until earnings. It`s insane that yahoo don't have a "(not confirmed)" or "(confirmed)" behind their dates.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was just curious, I'm not betting my life savings based on speculation :tongue:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Having read here and then done at least some due diligence in looking at the companies, I picked up end of year options on a few things. I realize now though that I have no thought out exit plan for either options or stock. There's no reason for me to think exiting any of them make sense right now, but it made me ponder the meta question of what factors do you look at for an exit plan? For Tesla, I'm obsessive enough that I can mostly go on feel of the accumulated news, but for other holdings like CSIQ or KNDI, I simply don't have the same kind of time to devote to it and so I really need to come up with some sort of proxy metrics/guidelines.

    I know sleepyhead approaches it like a 2nd full time job, but that's not really possible for me (well, perhaps physically possible, but the personal sacrifice is beyond my pain threshold), so I'm looking for suggestions/advice on somewhat less time intensive diligence folks take. I suppose the simplest, near zero time, is a market mechanism like a trailing stop, but I'd like to take a more active role than that. Stay on top of the stories each night in google finance highlights?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    In your case you should have gone with Apr options for CSIQ. Short term options are not for those without time to follow them actively like I do.

    SPWR tanked because the market is irrational. There was no reason for SPWR to tank. Even if they never build out capacity, they can still increase MW's shipped by increasing module efficiency and by selling more C7's. Their EPS of $1.2 can easily double or even more from cost cutting. With the way that the solar market is developing and with one of the strongest balance sheets, they have to build out capacity.

    In fact, if I was in charge of SPWR, I would be building out capacity as fast as financially possible. I would go all in on capacity expansion. The demand for solar products is moving so fast the not one (major) company will be sitting with idle capacity in 2014. You have to be proactive here.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Noted, live and learn :). Sounds like use a minimum of 6 month options or go pure stock given the amount of time I'm willing to commit to following them.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What are people's thoughts of SCTY before October Calls expire? I'm thinking it hits ATH before then. Debating selling them now. Have made 840%.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well done!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks! Oct 32.50 @ 1.50 on 9/5/13. Probably one of my best trades. Just struggling to figure out when to let go!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am the type that would sell 1/2 now (keeping at a minimum a 400%+ gain) and see what happens with the rest.



    Also...ER not out till Nov
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Awesome - that's exactly what I did. Sold @ 14.50. Let's see what happens with the rest. Thanks!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I did, got Apr14 17 strike @ 6.70. Unfortunately this was after today's 10% rise--should have done this yesterday :wink:

    Thinking of doubling up or should I wait? What's the outlook for next couple of weeks?

    CSIQ has had a good run up so far, but as we all know all good things eventually must come to an end.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah! Tesla taught me that. Oh wait...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    IMO CSIQ is going up, up, and up leading up to earnings.

    Your buy point was when it crossed below $17. I think I even wrote in my article that once it broke out of it's 2.5 year rounded bottom pattern that it might test the $16.50 mark and that will be new support.

    Well it tested that support and now it is off to the races.

    Good luck finding a good entry point. I would look for intraday pullbacks like today from $21.85 to $20.50. That is a 6% drop during the day. The way CSIQ has been going, I would call that a pullback.

    CSIQ is going up again tomorrow.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah you've been right on the money so far, great work! I've loaded up on CSIQ stock and options too. However, do you feel CSIQ can keep running tomorrow even though the situation is the way it is over at congress? I'm even considering selling some of my CSIQ positions tomorrow and try re-enter at a lower price. That might be the wrong move, we'll see what happens in politics tonight and pre-market tomorrow.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I put some CSIQ buy orders in the low $20's when I saw futures tumble on the Fitch news expecting a lower open tommorow, now that futures have reversed & shot higher I might have to chase higher...thats what I get for not executing after the close when I had a chance.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have also been saying the same thing over and over and over...

    BUY AND HOLD!!!

    I have bought and held (with some very miniscule trades in between) all the time since the government shutdown started and my entire portfolio is up 67% since the shutdown started.

    Buy and hold!

    You will not succeed by timing the market. If you are afraid that the politicians are going to royally screw up then sell everything you have and sit in cash (not money market accounts). Otherwise:

    Buy and hold!
    �
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