Thứ Hai, 31 tháng 10, 2016

Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA) part 3

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    A happy number, yes...

    Still talking. We'll see.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good going!

    Nice, sign me up for a job when you open the SD branch. :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This would be significant if verified. My recollection is Elon Musk said 2017 as recently as Q2 earnings, but my recollection could be faulty.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You're right it would be significant, although my understanding is that it has always been expected to "begin production in 2016". 2016 would likely be very low numbers similar to 2012 for the Model S.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I always saw it like this: It is a company's own choice how much in invests in itself. R&D, infrastructure for factories, showrooms, SC network: they could just as well decide to invest 50% less in these and leave much more profit for the books. So for me, until their underlying business is profitable, i.e. they sell the cars for more than it costs them to build, it comes down to how much i believe in the compan's leaders and strategy, how much investment in the future am I willing to accept?

    With Tesla, we all know what the answer to that question is, but it is not just blind faith. Elon (& his team!) have demonstrated time and time again (think SpaceX too) that they know what they are doing. Hence, i don't feel like any of the money they spend on e.g. R&D is thrown out the window. (A counter example would be BlackBerry...)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I believe in Tesla's future. I believe Tesla will add true luxury to future Model S - such as night vision, heads-up display, multiple cameras, self-parking, collision avoidance, power folding side mirrors, better seats, dark headliner, etc. I also believe Tesla will introduce a 200 mile 3-series form-factor sedan for under $35K (Model E).

    With a relatively basic 208-mile Model S costing $75K-$80K today and a moderate 200-mile Model E in 3 years costing, say $40K, I don't see how there will be enough demand for used Model-S to keep prices high. Yes, if you need the extra room, Model S would be your choice, but with the 208 mile range reduced from time/use, wear and tear on the exterior and interior, I think many would choose a new Model E over a used Model S. Now, perhaps a used Performance model, but even there, chances are there will be a performance Model E, and with it's lighter weight, better aerodynamics (less frontal area), and newer battery technology it might be a compelling choice versus a used Model S Performance. 3 year old S8s run at about 35%-40% of new prices. You might say that used electrics don't suffer the drivetrain wear that used ICE cars have, but there is battery life to be factored in.

    Anyway, my point is that, ironically, the more you believe the Tesla's future, the less you believe that current cars will be worth more than 50% of their current prices because in 3 years time, then current new cars at roughly equivalent prices will be such great values comparatively.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good point, smorgasbord.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think they will retain their retail value. Firstly the mixture is skewed towards the performance models and while I agree it's the lower cost models that are more likely to be used in collaboration with Tesla financing (as it's people who are already stretching their finances) the Model S is and will be the flagship. I seriously doubt that at about an equal price the lower cost Model E with far fewer options etc even brand new would necessarily be a stringent competitor to the MS that is 3-years old. The car itself will not deprecate mechanically that much and the battery capacity after three years should still be 95+% of the original or basically negligible reduction. The MS will look the cooler model and appeal to people, getting it at a discount of ~40-45% from list price would indeed most likely sell it out while giving Tesla a nice 15+% margin on it for the second sale.

    It's basically the question weather at the same price point a Mercedes E-class (or C-class) new car would fully cannibalize a 3-year old S-class car after sale value. If the price is about the same I think a lot of people would take the used S-class because of the added luxury and status it brings as well as the fact that after 3-years of use most of the initial kinks have been ironed out of the car and Tesla does give an 8 year warranty, which easily covers the 3 years + 5 more (typical financing period at least around here is 4-5 years) meaning that the buyer will enjoy the full warranty benefits and car benefits of a higher income bracket car at a lower cost point.

    Also I think the percentage of cars that get returned to Tesla for the guaranteed value is going to be extremely small. In fact the bigger the return rate the higher the cash flow for Tesla. I'm fairly certain they'll be able to sell 95% of all returns within a month (doing a bit of touching up, refreshing the software, going over service bulletins etc all under warranty anyway) at a 5+% premium. Most likely people returning the cars would be buying a new MS or an MX or a new Gen-III car. This effectively means double sales. For me this financing plan was genius and will not be a burden, but a possible extra income line.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Also, 2013 + 3 years is 2016. That's before the Gen-III launch. The competition would be the MS and the MX (with a very small minority opting for a different automaker). Tesla is effectively baking the cake and eating it too by getting part of the after-market pie. Consider how the loaners fly off the tesla shops and they have trouble keeping up with restocking them. If Tesla is still production limited in 2016 (likely), then those discounted MS-s will fly off the service center parking lots faster than the loaners. Once the Gen-III is in full production and not production constrained with months to wait, then we can start to think about the points I highlighted above, which still bring this as a general positive to Tesla :)

    - - - Updated - - -

    And a further update. This financing program right now is only offered in US. While Tesla might have right now mostly US production it will be a minority in the global production in 2016. EU will take at least as many MS-s as US and Asia might far outpace all of the rest. For EU 2013 is like 2012 was for US. Don't expect that few shipments next year ;) And 2014 will be the starting year for Asia so 2016 all markets should already be ramped up to tens of thousands of cars a year.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Also worth noting that the 50% price only applies to the base model 60, any options above that are priced at 43%. I guess you need to ask how many people looking at similar used cars instead choose a smaller, down market version of a new car instead. Do people shopping for a used 5 series instead buy a new 3?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's well-known, in the US at least, that used luxury boats like BMW 750, Audi A8, etc. are bargains. I believe Model S will fall into that camp. These cars are often purchased for their status. They're often on 3 year leases, they get turned in so that the owner get get the now latest model. A 5 year old luxury car doesn't have the same prestige as a new one. Many Model S owners will continually upgrade to get the latest and greatest, not to mention preserving the prestige. Many will want the latest Tesla has to offer and they'll get the new Model S, but others may not really want the big boat that the Model S is. It's not just price that sells medium size cars, it's the ease of parking and driving on narrow roads. Besides, Model S's conservative appearance will look old (it actually already does to my eye) compared to the expected more modern and cutting edge Model E styling.

    By 2016, Model S won't be production constrained (not because demand will decrease, but because production will have ramped up), and Model E will be getting hyped like crazy. People thinking about used Model S's will be tempted to wait and see what Model E will be. When is Tesla scheduled to end the 3 year lease buy-back program?

    As for wear, a 3-year old air suspension, sunroof and rear hatch lift are all suspect in my book. Tesla thinks so, too, as they don't provide an extended warranty for the air suspension (it's excluded). And, we've already seen the pillar wear threads, seats already look saggy, and cars just, well get bumped, dinged, and interiors have ice cream spills, child vomit, etc. A lot happens in a few years.

    Right now I believe a fair number of people are buying Model S who wouldn't otherwise be buying: a big luxury performance car. When Tesla's electric drivetrain is available in a smaller and cheaper Model E, and with better battery technology than the 3 year-old Model S's, those Model S's ain't gonna fetch sky-high prices.

    I don't know if this is going to be a liability for Tesla or not. It could be that Tesla's tight timeline will mean the impact will be small.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I think there are a lot of people out there who want the MS, but can't afford a $80+k car. They will happily get the MS at a 40% discount in three years. The touch up of the vehicle isn't going to cost Tesla tens of thousands. Majority will most likely be just fine needing only an interior and exterior thorough cleaning and it's good to go. Those minority that might require some spares will still be offset by others not requiring it. And I'm a bit surprised to hear the MS looking conservative and old. It's an extremely good looking car borrowing lines from Maserati and Aston Martin. Lines that are decades old and still sell extremely well, I see no reason they wouldn't also sell extremely well in the next 10+ years.

    You have to remember that the possible clientele increases as a power law once you get past the early adopter price levels. It's not a linear relation. Therefore a car 40% cheaper than the brand new one, but with some years on it will become accessible to a large chunk of people that just cannot go for the newer MS. I'm going to assume that by 2016 once the cars start to come back the Gen-III (why some keep calling it the Model E when that's not sure?) will have at least its design unveiled therefore people won't sit and wait that much. And I think it's going to be somewhat different market segments that compete for the MS and the Gen-III and the used MS will just dip into the extended possible clients pool that is going to be far and big for years to come. If the financing with a guarantee continues for years and years, then at some point in the future this may be something that needs thinking, but at this point in time it does not bode as a risk or liability. Also, by that time we'll have multiple years worth of data on the return resale rates.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    It will be a 3 year old Model S, and a quick search showed a 2010 BMW 535 at $29K with 45K miles on it compared to when new at $51K

    Wear gets deducted from buyback value, so it's not really a factor. You don't get to turn in a beat up S and expect to get the full value. So Tesla gets to deduct $100 for that worn door pillar and replace it for $25, for example.
    True, but also in three years time there will be a lot more people who know about the S and want one, and don't want to pay for a new one.

    Even if Tesla took a loss on each one turned in, which I doubt, the impact to the bottom line would be small.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I can easily see two scenarios that make me comfortable that 3 year old Model S' have value. One is Tesla offering a new battery pack (100KWH?) as an upgrade swap option. It perhaps having been introduced with the 10 Model Xs they build in 2014, but primarily with big Model X roll-out in spring 2015 - they'd also make it an option then for the 2015 Model S' and then for reconditioned S' that start coming back in summer 2016. So a car that might have sold used with a used pack for under $50K will have the battery capacity of a new Model S for around $75K. I don't think many people will option up to that, really just helps Tesla build the story that these cars are upgradable unlike ICEs.

    And I can see a Model E starting at $35,000, but really being 40K+ with basic options, and moving into the 50s and really the 60s before its performance begins to get close to a 2013 standard Model S. So 2013 Model S, that cost say $90K, Tesla buys back for about $40K and sells for under $50K. I see that appealing to enough people that I am not worried at all. And to stay on topic for the thread, it should not have a negative impact on short or long term Tesla earnings.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I would bet against 2016. If at gunpoint, 2017 as well. Elon threw out "within 5 years" or something in a recent Bloomberg interview. First time I had heard 5 years. They haven't done any engineering on the concept yet. It's a waiting game for battery tech and production to shake out. That's the most important thing and really out of Tesla's control. (well they could raise a few billion to solve the battery supply issue, if they wanted, but it still won't get them energy density)
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  • 1/1/2015
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    TM hasn't done any engineering on Gen III yet?? Knowing how Elon and JBS are always pushing forward, I don't believe that. I'd bet there is a group of engineers working with Straubel on Gen III and they are fairly far along with vehicle engineering. Gen III will need fewer cells than Model S to have 200 mile range and Panasonic already has the next higher density cell than is used in MS 85 Kwh pack. Pretty certain TM has been cycle testing next cell in packs for past year. Tesla requested changes to the cells Panasonic is making have already cut per KWh costs significantly and those efforts likely continue. I suspect they will do everything they can to have the first production models available by late 2016.

    That is necessary if they are to continue to leave GM and others who are only now executing 'hard right rudder' to start changing direction of the supertankers they are steering, eating Tesla's dust. Doubt they want to have a moderately priced EV with double the range of Nissan Leaf on the market for a year before Gen III. Would be bad for the 'Long Term Fundamentals' !
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    @smorgasbord - You bring up a lot of good points, but there is no way this vehicle depreciates more than 50% after 3 years and 30k-36k miles on it.

    Even if it does it will probably be close enough for Tesla to break even, and the numbers will be immaterial anyway.

    I would guess that about 25% of vehicles are classified as lease, and if half the people give their car back that is about 12.5% of 2013 sales or about 1,000 cars. In 2016 they will build 100,000 cars. Even if they take a $5000 loss on each used vehicle that is still only $5m loss on $10b in revenue.

    If this lease program becomes a losing proposition on a larger scale then Tesla will have plenty of opportunities to modify it before it has a material impact.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Someone is going to have to raise that "few billion" ($8B to $10B in my estimate for 1/2M G3/yr) and I suspect Tesla is the only one that can tell the story well enough to raise the money. Either they do it, they limp along at a pace consistent with their vendor's investment in capacity or they go to a major that then funds the process (along with providing the supply chain management for larger scale production).

    I'll start thinking about G3 production when I see the foundation being laid.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There is a flaw in your reasoning, which is that a Model E will be better than, or at worst equivalent to, a used Model S. But "better than" is a subjective measure. The S will certainly be bigger and more spacious than the E. It may still have better fittings, more leather, more wood paneling, etc. So people who are finally coming to buy an electric vehicle for $30-40k might still prefer the used S. At least this would make sure some decent market exists, and there will be only about 1/10th as many of them, so the price should remain stable. The Model E will be "different to", but not necessarily "better than", the used Model S.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Has anyone on TMC tried to calculate capital TM will require to produce as many Gen IIIs in current Fremont plan as it's size will support? As they already own Fremont and it should be able to produce 300 - 400K Gen III on top of 80 - 100K MS and MX, won't total capital needed to reach 400K capacity be what they already have on hand for dev costs, plus whatever costs will run for assembly lines and robotic systems for setting up as many production lines as will fill unused space at Fremont? TM picked up lots of line equipment for current Fremont line at bargain used prices. There is no shortage of shuttered auto plants in North America, so I'd expect that will continue as Fremont is expanded for Gen III.
    TM did not spend 2 billion in capital filling 1/4 of Fremont. I'm not sure how much they did. If an estimate of that is available, then multiplying it by factor of 3 to 5 should give a good estimate of capital cost to bring Fremont to full production. How do you arrive at 8 - 10 billion estimate?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Possibly $1B for 300M cells/yr. Gen 3 would need significant new manufacturing capacity.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Not talking about capital cost for a battery factory. Assuming TM could buy needed cells for all the cars Fremont could produce, what's likely capital cost to get production to full capacity of Fremont plant.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agree, and Elon has said something to the effect that they are putting 5% of their current effort into G3.
    Also agree, if they delay G3 then they are opening up the door for someone else to steal the momentum.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    pulled from the http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/21273-How-to-solve-the-quot-giga-quot-battery-factory-issue/page3 thread

    "Just to add a little more data to these calculations, here's a great article on the cost of battery factories originally posted by someone in CapOp's battery pack price thread.

    http://americanmanufacturing.org/fil...main%20(4).pdf

    The article roughly states that a new factory costs about $4 per cell that it will produce each year, which is consistent with the Suminoe expansion you mention. It also says that the same factory in China would be about 15% cheaper than the US though."


    Quick math would put the costs at 4K Cells/G3 * 1/2M G3/Yr * $4/Cell gives you $8B.
    Add to that-
    Engineering
    Ramp Costs (equipment, vendor tooling and other NRE)
    Receivables funding (hopefully by credit line)

    and you're talking a good bit of cash.....


    I think worse than a delayed G3 would be G3 with insufficient production. It would put to bed forever the idea that BEV can not replace ICE and yet Tesla would not be able to meet the demand they will have created. That scenario is the best one for another MFG to step in and fill the void.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Tesla's disruption means that the old guidelines don't apply. ICE vehicles maintain their value precisely because the new models aren't all that much better than the previous models. I believe Tesla's new models will be a lot better. Early technology adopters are used to the upgrade cycle, but it hasn't happened at $100K automobile levels before. This is uncharted territory, and if Tesla continues to innovate and improve their products as fast as I think they will (and need to), then this is the price.

    - - - Updated - - -

    It's kind of like saying all those people buying new BMW 3-series should be buying used 5-series. It just doesn't work that way.

    Except in this case, the new model will have better technology, and technology is a big selling point for Tesla, wouldn't you say?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    All Tesla has to do is upgrade the center console and possibly the battery, and then the Model S is valuable for many years to come. The aluminum frame should have a very long lifespan.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Smorgasbord has a really strong point about the pace of cost reductions and/or advancements in the battery/inverter/engine making a used S look unfavorable compared to a new E. However, I'd have to think Tesla would be improving the battery pack in the S and updating the model otherwise the E would make even a new S look like a poor value at the current pricing. Given that, I'd hope that Tesla would have some sort of retrofit option to bring older S up to date, otherwise I can see a 5 year old Model S having resale difficulty akin to a 5 year old iPad compared to today's versions.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I would say that there are people who need the space of a 5-series, and would not even consider a 3 series. So they buy a used 5, because that is what they can afford. And with the market of people who will consider EVs (at all) growing rapidly, there will be a significant number of them for whom the used Model S will be the right vehicle. At no time did I say what you're saying; quite the opposite.

    Ummm, no, that's not what I would say. I agree that the Model E will have better technology and technology is ONE big selling point for Tesla, but it is certainly not the only one. I think that in three years, the Model S will be the second best technology on the market, and maybe the other selling points will outweigh the one, for a non-trivial number of potential purchasers.


    Oh, BTW, I have every intention of being one of the first Signature Model E's delivered. It will actually be a better match for what we want in a car, and I do expect it to be better, faster, stronger... But there's also one Model S that will never be on the used market while I can still drive.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Right here. When it's time to buy an EV, if I can get my hands on a Tesla, whether used or new, I will. As long as the battery is is good shape, then I wouldn't mine a used Model S......it's still all about getting off of oil, moving the EV adoption foward, etc......
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You think the new Model S will have greater range, better performance, and cost the same as a three year old Model S? I don't.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Why do people pay more for a used 4 year old 7 series than a new 3 series?

    edit: I was referring to the guy who was claiming that people would rather buy a new Model E than a used Model S, and my post was supposed to reference that.

    Still these are theoretical low probability scenarios that you cannot worry about. There is a whole list of remote things that can happen to Tesla, and those are the risks of investing in general.

    I just feel like the risk for TSLA is actually very low right now (relatively speaking compared to the majority of companies that are publicly traded) and you have to invest when you find opportunities like this one.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    resale value will depend a lot on how well the batteries hold up against degradation and the pricing plan and implementation of battery exchange (at SC's) or swapping.
    If someone can get a brand new (refurbished?) 85kw battery for a relatively low price, then that will dramatically increase the value of the original (current) Model S's
    On the other hand, if we see significant degradation (very unlikely, it appears), then purchasing a used MS will be a very dicey proposition.
    Re-selling used EV's is very different than ICE's - it would be beneficial to everyone involved if a standard for 'battery health' could be established by Tesla to allow for fair comparisons in the resale market.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think it's an impact in relation to the amount technology advances. In 3 years, Tesla may very well be able to offer a 85kwh and 110kwh for the same price as today's 60kwh and 85kwh.

    If I'm shopping for a used 85kwh Model S, the price on that used car is going to be valued in relation to the new 85kwh which is now Tesla's cheaper model rather than the high end model.

    As gaswall and I think DaveT noted, a lot depends on Tesla's support for reasonably priced battery (and/or motor/inverter) swap outs in the future. If Tesla has really good support there, that has a huge positive impact on resale value.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Oh absolutely, I'm just commenting on the difficulty in knowing how well Tesla's guaranteed price is going to really hold up to actual resale value. I personally think Tesla could take a loss on that guarantee as part of the cost of encouraging adoption/demand. Who cares if they lose a little money on each of the first, oh, 40000 cars if it nets them a solid market presence with 200,000/year demand in 2017?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My guess is that they already do. Laptop batteries keep track of charge cycles and they also calculate total amp hour capacity. They have done this for years. For the car to tell you the range, it too has to be able to calculate the remaining amp hours of capacity. To figure battery health you just have to divide the actual Ah capacity by the original value when the battery reaches full charge.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Depreciation of Model S's is definitely been on my mind ever since I got hooked on the tech. Largely, I believe it depends, with all other things being equal, on ongoing, future and 'perceived' demand. I say 'all other things being equal' but have faith that they are actually 'better' than the competition and will remain so for the foreseeable future in the EV market (c'mon Nissan, prove me wrong!) as the 18650 form factor is better with TM's IP.

    If TM increases range of a future battery and there is no other competition I believe they will price accordingly. As a consumer, I really don't know how much margin they have in the battery. As a shareholder I'm happy. As a member of TMC I know they are increasing margins as I'm sure the price/kWh is dropping.

    I am concerned about the wear and tear on the rest of the car (i.e. non-drivetrain) but when I go to sell the car, when the X arrives, I believe that I can get waaaay more than even 80% **IF** there is at least a 2 month wait on 60's and I have ~60k miles left on the battery warranty.

    Realize that I'm deducting the fed credit and sales tax in WA State in my estimation as I believe the buyer has to pay sales tax on a used EV (not sure on that, but will find out when I sell the car ;))
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  • 1/1/2015
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    JB has said that they have a significant advantage in battery costs (roughly ~50%) so its more like $2/cell not $4/cell as you cite above, so you get $4B instead of $8B (which is a big difference!). And the current excess cells are enough for TSLA to produce several hundred thousand cars/yr.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    It's $4/cell to build a fab manufacturing facility. Lola is talking about the capital expenditures to build a battery factory. You are confusing cost to produce one cell with the cost to build a factory.

    What $4/cell means is that if you wanted to build a factory that can produce one cell per year it would cost you $4. Then you can probably make this cell for $1 - $2 and sell it to Tesla for $1.50 - $3.00.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I almost never read the full content of any Tesla article by analysts anymore. I go straight down to the comments section to read people's opinions. It is impressive to read how the majority of average Joes are realizing Tesla is onto something big. :)
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  • 1/1/2015
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    This seemed an appropriate place to bring this up.

    My last two converts picked their cars up on Friday and Saturday. The Friday delivery had a long list of quality related problems (Door panels not aligned, trim panels not in place, GPS not working, charge cover indicated as open when it is not....). The Saturday delivery only had one small quality issue. Both said the delivery process was awful. The Friday delivery knew more about the car than the Delivery "Specialist". The Saturday delivery showed up with his whole family at fifteen till two for a two delivery and did not make it out of the SC until five. Both have come away with a very bad taste in their months while still saying the car is absolutely wonderful.

    I expect startups to have issues. Lord knows I've had my share and customers are forgiving in the beginning. However, the beginning has passed (and having taken delivery of three cars during that time, Tesla was doing a reasonably good job) and now we are into the controlled growth stage. Tesla could very well see the current growth for the next few years then be hit again with a huge bump when they do G3. If this is how Tesla is going to handle sustained growth, I'm no longer worried about funding but more about middle management competence and upper management's inability to asses middle management and know not to push end of quarter volume up so high.

    Rant over..... I just feel like an idiot because I set these guys up to go buy the car. It's a shame as the first six I sent down went so well.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Sorry to hear that, hope they don't see it as a reflection of you. I suspect Tesla feels under pressure to do the end of the quarter blitz to please the stock holders and beat guidance. I think that pattern will continue until next year.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, I understand and as a shareholder I can appreciate the sentiment. It just can not be done at the expense of quality.

    I need everyone I place in a car to do exactly as I did and go sell more of them (as does Tesla). This puts an unnecessary obstacle in the path of Tesla's success. They started off with a fantastic customer experience and there may even be truth to the idea that a three hour cluster **** to sign title work and hand over a check is still better than even the best traditional dealer delivery. Then that misses the point that Tesla has been and should continue to be much better not just a little better.

    As for me personally, its no biggie. I've known these guys for a while and they both spent a lot of time in both my Model S'. They know my cars showed up without issues and thus have faith in long term ownership.


    I really wish they would not follow the Apple Store plan verbatim.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Do you believe that perhaps they shift employees from other departments into "delivery specialists" roles for the end of quarter push? I've heard some crazy numbers like 50 cars dropped off at the Atlanta SC to be delivered. They can't have that many DS trained people to handle that workload.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I've been commenting to our local Portland area store and service people about the need for the company to get out of the maniacal end-of-quarter rush, each and every quarter. The effect is to shift a delivery from q+1 into q, thereby creating a need at the end of the next quarter to shift q+1 deliveries into q, and on and on. As an investor, sure I like the bigger numbers at end of quarter. But the increase in quarter end numbers from what they would otherwise be is a mirage - get the business onto a footing where the deliveries happen when the deliveries happen. This quarter or next, it's a delivery - do it right; build it with quality, deliver it in a quality fashion, keep the SCs and stores stocked with loaners, and don't let quarter end short term thinking become the norm for the business.

    It's the one thing about Tesla's business that I worry about (and frankly, that's a great problem to have, as the problem and the resolution is entirely within their control).
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I don't see this as an issue because Tesla increases production by a substantial amount each quarter. If production was flat this would be a problem, but it isn't.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    We hear these kinds of stories at the end of every quarter. They are at a fragile time right now, hopefully soon they will have enough confidence from investors that they don't need to play these games.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Letting the street control your product quality is like letting the little head think for the big one. I do not know about you folks but that has never turned out very good for me in the past.

    BTW I just got a call from my Saturday delivery buddy (the one that did not have quality problems) and he has a battery coolant leak along with a window that clunks when raised or lowered. That makes two for two. Arg!!!!!!
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    So question, as the production ramps up, month over month, year after year, will Elon be able to bounce back and forth from SpaceX to Tesla like he does now? If they have a hard to with quality at the end of a quarter, I can't imagine what it would be like for hundreds of thousands of cars being produce.
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    Agreed.
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    As I see this Yuri, the issue isn't the numbers themselves that are the issue, or the possibility of a miss on the numbers in the future that is somehow related to this. The issue is the priority shift that happens inside of the company that is suggested by these stories at the quarter end. Most of the time, Tesla prides themselves on doing it right, building a quality product, and generally doing right. Then end of quarter arrives, and the culture shifts to pushing deliveries out the door, and we'll deal with the consequences later (an admittedly strong statement - it's a personal impression, than a belief that this is a stated priority
    of the company).

    And what I really worry about is that the short term perceived need for this approach becomes embedded in the culture - a badge of honor around how hard and how tired people get at the end of the quarter, and it's expected and accepted, as part of doing business the Tesla Way.


    For my own part, one solution I can apply as an individual is to try and time my car (Model X - I would prefer that this just stop happening in the next year) so that it gets built in the first or up to the middle of the second month of the quarter, and then have delivery happen in the second month or early in the third month. If delivery starts to look like end of quarter, I would just schedule it for early the next quarter, specifically to avoid the window when the delivery specialists are being slammed to push out cars. One individual taking this approach doesn't change the business - but if enough of us start behaving like this, that becomes a business process problem for Tesla, and it's entirely self-inflicted.

    The good deal with self-inflicted wounds - if they don't kill you, then the solution is entirely under your own control :)


    Note: This is all my personal impression of Tesla and Tesla's business. I am long TSLA (second largest position I have), and expect to be an owner/driver for the remainder of my life.
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    May I ask, what is your largest position?
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    I think its interesting that every analyst out there seem to think that Tesla is just going to stand still and not improve on their products and lineup. So many analysts think that the competition will be able to catch up to where Tesla is today within a couple of years due to their enormous RnD budgets. I do not believe that any competitor will be able to catch up anytime soon due to the fact that any product mentioned such as the i8 is simply not able to compete in any criteria. But even if they did manage to catch up to where Tesla is today it is not like Tesla will not improve themselves, Teslas goal zone will keep moving forward and the competitors will have to chase faster and faster in order to catch up. This is also applicable to the future of the company. Many analysts seems to think that after the GIII car they are done and are just going to stop after that. I for one am super excited about the follow up products to the GIII, first the GIII SUV but then after that the F-series competitor that Elon mentioned during the Texas thing and then other vehicles such as a Van for industrial and delivery services etc where companies can save hugely on gas, especially as the batteries will be MUCH cheaper by then. These follow on products after the GIII will ensure massive growth potential AFTER THE GIII and will provide revenue growth as well as higher PE numbers far into the future and beyond the GIII.?





    ?
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    If these are isolated incidents, then I suppose statistically there will be some issues in even the best manufacturing processes. It does make one wonder how thorough the ready to ship inspection and test drive was on your friend's new deliveries, and how strictly it was adhered to if there is a push for higher 3Q numbers. At early ramp up, there certainly was a strong emphasis on quality over speed. Given the Model S price points and clientele, this ethos seems as important today as it was then. In general I think people experience less disappointment (and it is shorter lived) with the delay in delivery of what turns out to be a stellar product as opposed to quicker order fulfillment at the cost of quality, especially for a product in the Model S price range.

    lolachampcar, will you please keep us informed on how and when these issues are resolved? Since the problems occurred, nothing can rectify the situations better than a quick resolution to the new owners' satisfaction.
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    The Friday delivery returned his car and has been told he will receive another (different) car. I feel for Tesla as that was probably not a comfortable conversation. I suspect his next car will have been gone over with a fine tooth comb before delivery.

    My Saturday delivery filled his wind shield washer bottle last night and check his floor this morning. The fluid was a diluted blue which indicates its a leaking WW fluid reservoir and not battery coolant. The Dania Service Center offered to bring him a loaner. He deferred suspecting more minor issues might crop up and he will get them all addressed in month when the West Palm Service Center opens. He has the leak, one window that "clunks" going up and down and the spinning maps that others have commented on. All in all he is a very understanding guy and very pleased with the car.
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    Glad he is being very generous about it. But I feel your pain as the friend who recommended the car and as a stockholder/multiple model S purchaser.
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    It may sound sappy but I just want so badly for them to get this right.
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    I'm sure most of us here understand: a sense of responsibility. Good on you.
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    Ditto that. Hoping it's just growing pains, and wishing that the mothership will figure out how to correct them sooner rather than later.
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    Model S may not be a JD Power 3 month initial quality hit yet. The company is so new, the whole process is a shock to the system for them, especially volume production & quality control. There are bound to be some amount of growing pains. When I supported new product introductions at the Detroit Cadillac plant, there were many more quality issues for years on the Deville and Seville models (fit and finish, non-integrated electronic components, powertrain component failures) and yet both models ended up on JD Power's Initial Quality list.
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    Quality of products and service is of critical importance in the car business. Need to track this closely.

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    http://www.smm.co.jp/E/uploaded_files/20130926%E3%80%80E_Final.pdf

    FROM Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Ltd. 9/26/2013

    In view of growing demand for Tesla-powered EVs, Panasonic is planning to increase production of its lithium-ion batteries.     To respond to this expansion of the market for automotive rechargeable batteries, SMM has now decided to undertake investment to expand its production facilities for lithium nickel oxide at its Isoura plant in Niihama City, Ehime Prefecture. Expansion work is to get under way in October, with completion scheduled for June 2014. The planned investment outlay is approximately 4.8 billion yen (US$48 million). After expansion, SMM�s production capacity in lithium nickel oxide will increase from the current 300 tons per month to 850 tons.
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    Well, after five months, Tesla received my 6-figure check yesterday afternoon (it was the ever-present problem of geography that was the cause of the huge delay); at any rate, it means that my car will be one of those Very End of the quarter productions! Yikes - please everyone cross your fingers and let's hope for a well-aligned, well-gone over 85P Model S!

    (and we can bump up the 3Q revenue estimates by $110K......) ;)
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    Did I miss something? Why it takes 5 months?
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    Probably cuz they were waiting to find a brave enough driver with good insurance to deliver a Model S on a flat bed truck in Grizzly country ;-)
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    This is exactly the kind of upstream investment that needs to happen for Gen III.
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    judging by the latest price movement, people have started to price this in.
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    WOW! Made my day!!!! Thanks!
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    God this stock price is so high. Any predictions on splits, corrections?
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    I believe that Tesla will likely ultimately be a >$100 billion company due to a megatrend towards electrics which is only just starting, solid track record of industry-beating innovation and a solid head start due to first-mover advantage and battery patents. But it's very, very nerve-wracking to sit and watch as the stock price is where I believed it would be 5 years from now. There is significant risk of a major correction if anything goes wrong or sentiment changes. This is true even if my investment thesis still holds. If it doesn't, we'll sooner or later get a major-league whooping which we won't bounce back from.

    No predictions from me, except that there is a huge amount of uncertainty.
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    You can always put a trailing stop order that goes with the stock. Just make the trail large enough that simple daily/weekly movements don't cause a trigger yet protect your investment. So if you bought in at 60 why not have a trailing sell order for your stocks at price-40 usd. This way you'll get out at worst at 152 usd more than doubling your profit and it's unlikely that Tesla will have a 40 usd swing just like that. Makes life far calmer and you can even take a 2-week vacation without worrying about stock market :) And if the stock goes up the trailing amount pulls the stop up as well.
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    If your plan is to hold long term, then chances are that sooner or later you will be stopped out at a price where you should have BOUGHT and not sold...
    From my experience I am always stopped out at the worst moment. If I set a stop @153 I can be sure that the price turns around at exactly 152.50 and then shoots straight up.
    This is why I don't use stops anymore, if I want to hold a stock long term (short term plays is different, If I want to be out soon anyway, then why not set a (trailing) stop).
    If I buy today @193 I would never set a (trailing) stop @153. Rather I would set a BUY-order @153. Such a huge dip would be a buying-opportunity imo, not a selling-opportunity.

    Just my 2 cents. :)
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    Rather than stops, set alerts. Then you'll know when something happens, but the machine won't trade for you.

    I don't like stops. Seen too many killed in a flash crash because it triggered their stop.
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    And, I guess, add Kia? Guessing the LA Auto show is their big reveal http://laautoshow.com/

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/kia-motors-announces-plans-first-190453234.html
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    This is exactly what I currently have in place. I was just on a two week vacation, and then had a surgery that put me out of commission for a week +. Lastly, and I'm almost ashamed to admit it to this forum (pause to don flame suit), I do not currently have an internet access smart phone:redface:.

    Yup, I can certainly see the wisdom of this, and will consider making the appropriate changes. I just remember looking at a historical AAPL chart and seeing several ~ 50% drops over relatively short periods of time and came across the trailing stop as a tool, so I chose to employ it. And, as an aside, your timing sounds about as good as mine - j/k :wink:.

    I had not thought about this when I made the trailing stop my safety net choice. By "flash crash", I suppose I've heard of price collapse based on some rumor that turned out to be false, or maybe an electronic SNAFU on an exchange. Are these the types of scenarios to trigger such a movement? Are there others?

    Hmmm, set alerts...maybe it's time to go buy that phone!
    Thanks,
    Gary
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    Sure there are all kinds of reasons the price can drop then pop in seconds. Imagine that hackers get a hold of CNN twitter account and tweet that Elon was killed in a rocket accident. 2 mins later Elon tweets that reports of his demise were greatly exaggerated.

    You can't possibly trade faster than the machines and professionals you are up against in these situations. Take time to understand what just happened and make a decision. Don't relinquish control of your money to a machine. At least, not one that blindly sells based on some predetermined price.

    I mean, at least check TMC before selling. Right?
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    This is really good advice!
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    Elon has got to be shaking his head at this story. Toyota is going to blow major money going down the hydrogen path. Nissan will be eating Toyota's lunch in less than a decade if that is the plan.

    What focus group told them people want to drive hydrogen cars???
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    Easy market neutral pairs trade you got going here: Long Nissan, short Toyota
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    BMW has been trying to make hydrogen work for a few years. Pretty much the only major manufacturer.

    BMW's Hydrogen 7: Not as Green as it Seems - SPIEGEL ONLINE

    Always thought it was a dumb idea but they have pushed it for a while. Toy has obviously been sipping the same kool aid.
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    I'm going to be buying both. Having the battery pack punctured by a road object is no different than getting your gas tank ruptured in the same way. Very likely the same effect will occur in both cases. From the pictures and video I'd still say the Model S is the safest car on the road. Even during the highest part of the flames a passenger or driver would have been safe. I saw no flames in the cabin of the car. Very impressive, in my opinion.
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    I agree. This will be a short term media 'gotcha' moment followed by the realization that this actually makes the car look much safer compared to an ICE with a similar road hazard encounter.

    Actually, the media I have seen seems to give some balance to the story. The problem is 'a picture is worth a thousand words' phenomenon where they show you a burning car.
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    I'm glad The Baird-Flaming-Debt Showdown fiasco last week had limited discussion on this Thread. Those events don't belong here with the Longs. The amount of exaggeration by the press (to sell their stories to their advertisers no less) was completely unjustified and shows us how little the mainstream media really knows about Tesla. Very little. I have been investing for over 22 years, since September 2012 for TSLA @ $29. Ever since, I have researched Tesla for 30 minutes 6 days per week and I have never been as sure of a company, its people, and its products, to succeed as I am with Tesla Motors. The Model S is the best rated, safest and near fastest car in the World and nothing can take these achievements away. Please refer to my other posts on TMC for more reasons supporting my position (I only have written a few times). Technology and advancements will only make cars of the next Generations better, and less expensive (remember the first iPhone was $700).

    Glad to see Nissan is stepping up to the plate and perhaps GM in believing in EVs. All EVs from other manufacturers are less of competition to Tesla than they serve to help support for the EV future which Tesla will play a significant part. A much bigger event occurred last week than the three aforementioned events that picked up limited press coverage, however has a far more reaching impact on Tesla, that of the World's largest Auto manufacturer, Toyota's CEO ($206B market cap) saying "no thank you" to EVs. This is absolutely huge and shows TSLA has much more upside.

    I have no doubt Tesla will succeed and have bought shares along the run up and never sold, nor even thought of selling. My job requires my full attention and therefore I can not "play" the markets by trying to time the highs and the lows, was never very good at that anyway. Also, that would be a 2nd full time job, and I would much rather spend time with my family and friends than to watch the ticker tape parade all day, no matter what the gains. I'm in for the long haul. Once the Tesla 4X4 pick-up is introduced I may think about selling some of my position, however that is probably around 2020.

    I can't wait to get my three year old bare bones Model X in 2018 for $35,000. It is interesting that in my position I am not a fan of purchasing a depreciating asset, even if it is the Word's best. I'll thank my Dad's frugal upbringing for that which he clearly passed on to me.

    Thank you for reading and have a great day. Go EVs Go!!! I believe.

    Best,
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    I'm the same, but the Gen3 is probably going to force me to buy my first brand new vehicle ever.
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    You guys should consider buying the car as investment research if you can afford it. When I got the Model S this past winter it reaffirmed my conviction to hold my LEAPs long term until the end and invest the rest of my savings in Sept 75 call options which turned out to be my best move. Now I have a reservation for the X and when I get it if I feel that it is the best SUV ever it will reaffirm my conviction to hold the stock long long term again, etc. if its great but not the best SUV ever then I may consider selling some of my position soon after I get the X.
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    I see the company as much more than a single vehicle, but the Gen3 is going to be the big one for Tesla in my opinion. Of course a lot can happen between now and then.
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    Hello Words of HABIT.
    Thank you for this post, and for this perspective. In trying to stay current on Tesla and TSLA, I have been subscribed to both this thread and the Short Term investment thread. There is a lot of excitement on the short term thread. It is fascinating to watch the tactics discussed there, and to slowly become conversant in some of the terminology (not to mention witnessing some of the gains!). The risk / reward quotient is different over there. As you say, besides requiring a wealth of options trading knowledge, minute to minute monitoring of daily trading is likely the norm, which presents a tremendous challenge if that kind of dedicated oversight can't be applied. It is gratifying and sobering to read your perspective, in part for the well-founded basis for your long term commitment, and in part for the recognition of your own comfort level with various types of investment approaches. I subscribe to this thread in part to balance the view and focus on the short term thread. In trying to formulate my own investment approach, I will take the words you've written here into strong consideration.
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    This popped up in my IB news window for Tesla:
    http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/What+Secret+Project+is+Tesla+%28TSLA%29+Working+On%3F+And+Whats+In+a+Name%3F/8755589.html?si_client=intbro

    The interesting part:


    This would add a new revenue line to TSLA.     ?
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    SpaceX halo on TSLA

    I haven't seen anyone mention Elon's Sept 29 tweet, following the successful launch of SpaceX's next-gen Falcon 9 rocket with "lots of new technology." Elon said:
    "Between this flight & Grasshopper tests, I think we now have all the pieces of the puzzle to bring the rocket back home."
    Twitter / elonmusk: Between this flight ...

    Grasshopper is a test rocket that SpaceX has been bringing home from increasingly complex short flights. Here is the latest one:
    Grasshopper Divert | Single Cam (Grasshopper vs. Cows) - YouTube

    But Elon's tweet is about bringing home the Falcon 9, to a controlled power landing, after a mission to orbit. In other words, the world's first fully reusable orbital launch vehicle.

    If SpaceX solves that puzzle, it will be a monumental achievement that will revolutionize space industry by cutting the cost of space launches by orders of magnitude.
    Why Make Rockets Reusable? - YouTube

    NASA couldn't do that: the Space Shuttle launch boosters dropped in the ocean and the fuel tank broke up on reentry.
    Space Shuttle external tank - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    No other government or corporation in the world has done it. If Elon and his team can do it, I expect there will be a halo effect on Elon's other ventures, including Tesla.

    "The next orbital flight test of the Grasshopper technology is planned for the next International Space Station delivery mission for SpaceX's Dragon cargo ship, currently slated for February. If all goes well, Musk says, the first stage of the Falcon 9 used for that flight will have landing legs. The plan is to have the first stage booster touch down back at its Cape Canaveral launch site."
    Musk: SpaceX Now Has For Reusable Rockets - Popular Mechanics
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    49:14 - "[We're] doing a little bit of advance planning on the third generation vehicle that will be a mass market, affordable electric car."

    That seems a long way off from what a lot of people imagine about the GenIII. If they are now at the stage of "a little bit of advance planning", what does that mean for when GenIII will be launched?
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    Do u think there's a risk/mistake made by Netflix when they misjudged consumer reaction of roving mail DVD option?

    What if tesla gen3 is "technically" $30k, but just like the $50k model s, it is quickly abandoned? And gen3 , with decent options, is now $50k?
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    Still Nissan and Bmw will not sell one single EV with profit when a 30k$ option comes. But its also smart. People will upgrade and most will probably spend 40k. However the GEN3 will never meet demand before 2030 IMO
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    Then I won't buy one and I suspect many other people will be similarly disappointed. It'd still be a success if it was a well-equipped $50k performance car, but to really blow the market open they need to get to the bottom of the luxury market to get that plus upsell the premium mainstream buyers.
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    To me the big question is where will they build the European GEN3? Building a 30k$ car in California to ship it to Norway makes me think it might be abit more expensive here.
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    A base 3 series (not talking about the crappy 320 but 328 base) also starts at close to $40k and you have to spend $45k - $50k to get decently equipped.

    I hope that the Model E also sells at around $50k, because:

    1. As a shareholder, I want a good return and Tesla will have no problem selling millions of these cars a year at a price similar to BMW 3-series, i.e. starting at $37k and with must have options closer to $45k. BMW sells several hundred thousand of these in the US annually. They also have the 328x and 335 series that are even more expensive not to mention the M3.

    2. As an owner, I don't want to drive the same car that all college kids are driving. It can't be too affordable so that it is still somewhat exclusive, like the 3-series. It should be targeted more towards the successful middle class person.

    I know there are a lot of people hoping they can get the Model E for the same price as a Camry, but that is not going to happen. What is Tesla supposed to do if demand outstrips supply? The answer is obvious and they have to raise the price at least a little; like they did on the Model S.

    That is the unfortunate course of the business, but as a shareholder I am perfectly happy with this and actually demand this behavior.

    As a customer I can hedge the potential increase in Model E price by buying approximately $5k worth of TSLA shares today.
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    Agreeing with everything Master Sleepy was saying, just adding a few thoughts...

    I've been saying it for some time now, that when the time is right, Tesla should found another brand. Even if the (battery) technology was there to make a 15k car, they shouldn't... under the Tesla brand.

    Not saying this should or will happen in the next 2-3 years - although, they should start trademarking some brand names if they have something in mind -, but I think this is the only thing that makes sense in the long term. Changing people's mind about EVs is onte thing, but a luxury/premium brand will always require some exclusivity. If every second teenager is driving a Tesla that would damage the brand.

    Having said that, they could still market it like "xxxx brand by Tesla Motors", make use of the positive halo around the premium brand, and of course they could also share a big part of the parts and platforms between the 2 brands, leveraging mass production. Almost all big car companies do that - your Audi is probably as related to Skoda as humans are to chimps. Many of their common parts are even produced in my country/region.

    As for Tesla itself, they could still go lower with pricing for a BMW series 1 competitor, a shorter, more compact ("Model C" anyone?) version of the Model E.
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    What are you all going to do when teenagers are driving used Tesla's? :wink:
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    I think we will all be happy when teenagers are driving Gen 3's with "autopilot" and more importantly crash avoidance technology from Tesla :). From comments from JB and Elon it appears they are pushing hard on this front.
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    +1. I would trade in my S in a heartbeat to be able to get an E for my early teen daughter with those types of safety features. We talk about auto safety in my family almost daily as the day approaches when she can drive. The debate: If nothing else is out there 'safer' than the S when that day comes she may be driving a two year old S....mine.....


    edit: But only if TM comes out with firmware to limit some of power/top speed :wink:
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    Companies are increasingly finding that rising salaries in China and other Asian countries mean that they can produce more cheaply at home. Blue collar labor is actually quite cheap in the US, and the high level of automation also reduces the importance of the local cost level.
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    I think the benefit of EV vs gas will be even more acutely felt at the Gen3 price level. As Musk pointed out last week (not for the first time I am sure) a 35k base price point will bring car + fuel for Gen 3 competitive with a $25k ICE in the US, and competitive with a $20k price point ICE in Europe.

    Merely looking at this factor alone, one can see how demand for a $35k Gen3 can far outpace the 'accepted' understanding of the total addressable market at that level. That higher demand, coupled with the large increase in gross profits from Tesla's ability to sell at MSRP rather than at the wholesale prices ICE mfrs sell to dealerships, gives me a warm feeling inside as an investor, even accepting a base $35k and ASP of $42-45k.
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    Sorry to nitpick, but BMW sells only about 100K 3-series in the US annually. And about 400K world-wide. And that includes all variants.
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    My point is that cheapest model S costs over 10k more in Norway then in the US. So I I wonder what the difference will be on the GEN3

    - - - Updated - - -

    A 35k$ GEN3 is comepetitive with a free gas car in Norway.
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    I don't think the Mini is in the same category as the 3-series and the upcoming Model E.
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    Did you do the calculations on this? Seems about right to me. As in, a $35k electric car is more or less cost-competitive with a gasoline car if you get the gasoline car for free.

    Probably not quite this good, but close. Quick calculation with no discounting the value of money, 12000 kilometers/year * $2.33/liter of gasoline * 0,07 liters/kilometer = $2796/year in fuel costs per year. So after 12.5 years (no discounting or inflation adjustment) you've paid more in gas than the price of the car. Add in fewer servicings/repairs after year 5 (typically at around $1000 each, and I'm being conservative here) and cheap electrical power, free parking and no road tax for at least a few years, and your ballpark estimate starts to look very good. The yearly distance driven is also quite conservative, ~7500 miles.

    (Gasoline in Norway is approximately $10/gallon, but I've used $9.32 in these calculations).
    �
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    Sleepyhead does well with the stock trading numbers. But saying Tesla will sell millions of a $35-45k car worldwide per year is quite a long shot. When one says millions, they mean multiple millions. Five million $40k cars annually is 200 billion dollars gross. It would make Tesla the largest product exporter in the USA, but we would assume other worldwide factories. This is way outside the capability of one company to dominate this type of sales profile for such an expensive car. 200,000 annually when tied into a general widening of competition, a decline of incentives over time and a slow adoption rate of EVs (slower than hoped by all EV advocates) means that people may be taking a very overly-optimistic view of Tesla and the EV industry's future. Without even more selective models and options available, there will have to be more attractiveness than the smooth acceleration, moderate luxury and "different" factor. In five to ten years, if EVs gain traction, there will be a stable of competitors. EVs are happening but at a slower rate than predicted a few years ago and assuredly not at the rate that some fans expect to occur ongoing.
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    The only way that Tesla doesn't sell the Model E in millions is if it introduces a cheaper model that will cannibalize sales. I think that Tesla will introduce a new brand when this happens (Scion vs. Toyota).

    EV adoption will happen as fast as Tesla expands capacity.

    The competition is so far behind that they will not be able to catch up any time soon. I guarantee you that Tesla will be the biggest car manufacturer in the world, and it will happen a lot sooner than you expect.

    If you want to be successful in business, then you have to see the future, think big, and then execute: Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Elon Musk, etc.

    If you really want to make a lot of money in the stock market then you have to see the future, believe in it, and then put your money where your beliefs lie.

    If you can't see the Tesla revolution coming, then you will never see any good investment opportunity even if it hit you in the head. This is about the easiest and most obvious investment opportunity of a lifetime that you will ever get. It really doesn't get any easier than this. Even at today's share price Tesla is a huge bargain. The only reason it is so cheap is because people still can't see that Tesla is growing a lot faster than anyone imagined; and will continue to do so. Demand is a lot higher than anyone can imagine, and definitely a lot higher than Elon Musk says it is; probably 2- 3 times higher than he says it is.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I've noticed that people who dismiss Tesla like to change the subject from Tesla to EVs in general.

    The Model S was launched a little over one year ago. It is not like other EVs.
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