Thứ Hai, 31 tháng 10, 2016

Alternative Energy Investor Discussions part 22

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    guest
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    What is the short interest in CSIQ? 7% or something like that? Why is this guy saying solar is in a bubble when PE for CSIQ for example is near 12 or so..? Just because a stock has run up a lot does not mean its about to collapse. It could correct some due to profit taking but as long as the growth is there, company is making money, and it's trading at a reasonable "growth type" PE I feel comfy being in it. What is dude smokin?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    actually if you assume institutional holders aren't shorting, it more like 9% of float;
    total FUD-
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    guest
    Here is what I wrote in my megapost thread as someone asked me for my opinion on this, but it belongs here:

    This guy is spewing typical FUD on solar. Solar stocks up 300%, therefore they must come down. The only reason they are up so much is because they were priced below $100m market cap on $1b+ in sales. CSIQ is up 1400% in the last 12 months.

    I know its FUD when he says 60GW of capacity and less than 40GW of Demand. That 60GW of capacity has been thrown around for 3 years now, and actual capacity is a lot lower. Mothballed capacity cannot come on-line because it is outdated and would need $millions to get the lines updated, which they can't afford to do because Chinese banks are not borrowing to losers and only tier 1 companies get loans. Actual module capacity is 45GW according to solarbuzz. And demand might hit 50GW next year according to them. The most likely scenario is a shortage of panels, which will lead to huge profits.

    In order to produce modules, you need cells, which require wafers, which require polysilicon. According to Deutsche Bank there will be a small shortage of poly in 2014 if demand reaches 45GW. There will be a big (good) problem/shortage if demand reaches 50GW.

    This guy is spewing FUD so that he can get into these solar stocks at a cheaper price. He realized that he missed the boat on solar and now he wants to get in at a discount. He knows that JKS is going to $50 and if he buys at $32, that is "only" a 50% gain. But if he can get in at $25, that is 100% gain. Either that or he is just clueless. But I doubt that money managers are really that stupid to go short an industry based on incorrect data and information. I am a part time small money investor and I have figured out the solar sector all by myself.

    Typical FUD on the industry that scares away the retail investors, so that the big money guys can make money. The retail investor doesn't understand solar, so he believes what he hears from these "professionals" on CNBC and they sell. If I had time I would investigate these people myself and then bring a case against them to the SEC. I am sure that if you tracked what they said, and then what they bought, you will probably find that they are doing exactly the opposite of what they say they are doing.

    2014 will be the year of solar capacity shortage and big profits for companies like CSIQ and JKS for sure. I think that JASO, SOL, and possibly TSL will join the big profits in 2014.
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    guest
    Yes I read 45 to 50 GW for 2014. I have read articles about "adequate supply" of polysilicon for 2014, but not yet any on potential shortage. I hope there is a shortage. Money can be made by money managers talking stuff up or down right (FUD)? :) I am getting increasingly confident that I need to increase my JKS positions, but still have not done so yet. I am very heavy in CSIQ. JKS is 50% the market cap of CSIQ, and if they can keep growing medium term the way they have JKS may provide a better return than CSIQ for 2014, albeit slightly more risky than CSIQ. TSL is also now in my radar. Sleepy what do you think may be a good weighting for holding these solars?
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    He constantly is changing percentages depending on how undervalued a company is, among other things. To clarify, are you asking what his current allocations are or what he would recommend for you yo do?
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    I always go on my own gut instinct in the end on weighting, but take notes from others in my decision making process. So I am asking about Sleepy's own weighting at the moment and also from others as well. I think we should discuss this going into 2014 to try and help each other make the most amount of $ in Solar. I am 80% CSIQ, 20% JKS at the moment. Thinking of possibly increasing JKS to 35%.
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    I personally have my money spread pretty even along all my solars right now. CSIQ and SPWR are my old holdings which have done well and i am holding that value on them (they are LEAPS). they were at larger % of my protfolio but i did some profit taking to spread things out a bit among the others

    JASO, TSL and SOL are all even weighted but have different plays. TSL i only hold LEAPS at this moment and JASO and SOL i hold April-Junes as at the time of purchase there were no longer term options available. I am hoping for a good showing out of JASO before i roll over into LEAPs. The majority of my cash in SOL is in stock right now as its been a laggard and there are no LEAPS available, once there are I will probably convert some of the stock into LEAPs. I still hold my SOL JAN14s that i have had for 5 months now which are about even at this point (should of sold after the last quarter report, but didnt see the stock offer dip coming, lost alot those few days) I am going to contine to hold SOL JAN14s as a ER play as i dont see any way this ER could be any worse then last quarter and last quarter was a knock out. If its not, that is my the majority of my cash is in stock and it wont break my back.

    Lastly i hold about half as much of all the rest of my solars in ITM LEAPS of YGE. They are down a good 30% after the ER but i will hold them because even if they struggle for a bit, the rising tides of solar will lift it up. Its a laggard too so it still could pop if things for them improve and they found a way out of their mountain of debt. Bt that debt is why i hold alot less in YGE then the rest. I am not betting on any major move for YGE, which is why i hold ITM LEAPS. Unless the stock stays flat for the next year, i cant see how i am going to lose anything on the play. IF they cant dig themselves out then i guess i will go down with the ship, but one again, that is why i hold very little % of my portfolio in YGE at the moment.

    I also still have money in the tech sectors as well making up the other 25% of my portfolio. I hold no TSLA at the moment and waiting for a clear sign of recovery (still do some day trading on TSLA when i see fit)
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    guest
    You are reading the wrong articles:

    Warning from GCL leads to polysilicon shortage - CIOL

    And that is only a little over a month away...
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    Academic curiosity I suppose since my TSL stock hasn't lost anything, but I'm a little surprised TSL hasn't done better than its siblings yesterday and today. It had a huge opening from the ER and dived hard, along with all the solars, that day and saw its ER bump wiped out and then some. I'm a little surprised it's just limped along with the pack rather than leading it given the positive ER.
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    guest
    Looks like another depressed Solar day. Market up huge but most solars are not having any part in it.
    Anyone have any news that might be the cause?
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    Don't understand what you are referring to. As of now SPWR is up 2.3%, SCTY is up 4%, JKS up 1.7%, CSIQ is off .12 or .39%. Doesn't seem like a depressed day in Solar to me.
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    guest
    i dont watch SCTY and SPWR is a US solar and that is also why i said most, not all.
    Chinese solars, JASO, TSL, CSIQ, CSUN, and HSOL were all in the red at the time of writing, SOL was diving. only JKS was up, Due to a Zacks upgrade and YGE was paring back.
    When the majority of the sector is in the red and the NASDAQ is up nearly a full percent (a pretty bull day). then yes i think something is holding them in the red. If DOW breaks 16,000... watch out.

    It looks like something just triggered a solar buy though. JKS, TSL, SPWR, YGE and CSIQ all on a rally.

    JASO volume seems awfully low.
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    I don't think SOL or JASO are going to rally like the others until their ERs come out. The other solars have already proved their worth, now its time for those two to prove they are worth investing in (to the rest of wallstreet not to us).
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    My understanding is that Renesola makes its own polysilicon (and wafers) while Canadian and Jinko do not. If a polysilicon shortage is likely in 2014, why do you think CSIQ and JKS will make big profits "for sure" but you seem less sure about SOL? What am I missing?
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    guest

    Both SOL and JASO have not Reported and they are both trading on very below average volume today.
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    guest
    It is way too complicated to explain, but in the end it is simple economics 101. Poly shortage means panel shortage and that mean panel makers can charge whatever they want (not really but you get the point). If price goes too high, then demand goes down and no more poly shortage.

    You are also misinterpreting my comment on SOL: CSIQ and JKS should have ~$5 EPS in 2014, SOL will not get that high, no way because they have twice as many shares as CSIQ and almost four times as many as JKS. In any case SOL is still really cheap, but it is not a foregone conclusion that they will be very successful, whereas CSIQ and JKS already are successful. SOL also doesn't have hardly any cell capacity; so if cells go up then SOL suffers.

    The whole solar industry is very, very complex and you really have to spend thousands of hours studying it to understand it.
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    No analyst understand it for sure. Especially since we know they like TSL the most. Except for Gordon who raised his PT on TSL from $0 to $3 today.
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    A raise is a raise :biggrin:
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    Hmmmm CSIQ underformed most of the Solar sector today by a decent margin. Wonder why.
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    I guess if there is one thing I've learned about the Chinese solar sector is that there is no pattern of logic in the daily or weekly stock movement :wink:
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    guest
    Agreed. Sleepy and others have made it pretty clear that trying to make sense of short term movements in the solar industry at the moment is a waste of energy :)
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    guest
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    My weighting is 65% CSIQ and 35% JKS for Solar. Let's hope we get some more deals announce for Solar soon and get another rally going in December.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    we have SOL's ER on Monday morning followed by JASO Tuesday morning. Lets hope for a one, two punch since JKS and TSL were not able to deliver it for us due to stupid FUD articles....
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    guest
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    SOL's ER is actually Dec 5th. And yea JKS and TSL both had great ERs its just a shame on the timing of that article. It completely killed the TSL post earnings bump. And took a lot of the gains away from the other solars that they have accumulated in the past couple weeks. If JASO does good next week then I'll be a happy camper since I have a larger stake in them than the others.

    EDIT: Jonathan beat me to it haha.
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    No problem, I read an article yesterday talking about the SOL ER being today and because it was written yesterday I at first thought it new news and was legit. I then thought to check the renesola website and realized the guy was clueless.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Solar on very low volume today again it seems.
    SOL only 1million shares, average of 5million.
    JASO on 1 of 3
    CSIQ on 1.8 of 3.7
    TSL 2.7 of 5.8
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yahoo and Google have been saying Nov 25 for weeks, but Renesola announced the date just today. You can sign up for email alerts about Renesola press releases at their website.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Speaking of Yahoo...the estimates listed for the 2 analysts covering JKS went from $.23 for 2013 30 days ago to $1.14 for 2013 7 days ago to $1.98 for 2013 now. Estimates for 2014 went from $.49 30 & 7 days ago to the current $2.76 estimate for 2014. Forward P/E went from 60+ to 12+...just like that. I'm hoping the analysts put out something for the press/investors early next week.

    Have a great, sunny weekend.
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    So none of you guys have answered my question. Where will solar stock prices be middle of 2014 for the top 7 popular ones? We played this game with Tesla and didn't do too poorly with the $200/ share guesses. Shall we play for solar? FSLR, SPWR, CSIQ, YGE, TSL, JKS, JASO
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    Much higher than today, I hope. I would guess but the current prices are too low and it's too hard to know if they'll still be too low next year.

    Buying and holding.
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    Thanks for the answer. I was more looking for numbers. They have come up from levels of bankruptcy to that of low levels of growth. Yet year over year capacity growth for the industry should be around 70% +/- until 2016? I'm not expecting another 500% move in 2014 in stock prices on average like 2013, but more of a 100% to 200% average move. The average mover candidates would be in my mind SPWR, CSIQ, TSL types. The smaller ones may do better as long as they can grow and stay in business. All of this assuming the overall market remains healthy. Anyone else care to play?
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    guest
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Weekend update: This weekend I spent more time in researching Solar. Nothing new to post here other than what ya'll already know. The spat between China and Japan over those puny islands is a bit irritating to say the least and not good for the market if it continues to escalates, especially for our Chinese solars.
    Here's a nice to know bit of data I found on how some of the Chinese Solars are tracking their price targets. They aren't tracking too badly so far. So I would expect to see CSIQ and JKS hit $40 range not far from now if the trend were to continue...

    JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. : analysts consensus and price target for JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. | Nyse: JKS | 4-Traders

    Canadian Solar Inc. : analysts consensus and price target for Canadian Solar Inc. | Nasdaq: CSIQ | 4-Traders
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    TSL and CSIQ taking a beating this morning. Ride that wave.
    I made a gut call and bought more TSL to average down my March $13s i bought for a ER play during this dip.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not that familiar with options can you share if you bought to open a put or a call? If you are long on this thanks
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    guest
    Another no reason tanking day for Solar.
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    guest
    Some of the solars have been taking a beating the last couple weeks. Made the mistake of Nov/Dec/Jan options, largely ATM, back in mid Oct after I'd been reading this thread for a couple weeks and started to feel like I understood the discussions. Unfortunately was a sort of local maxima for some of the solars (SOL in particular has been terrible for me). In the last week I've been converting the options to pure stock, but a couple will likely be complete losses. I'd have done better with straight stock purchases across the board. Fortunately, CSIQ and JKS performed well enough to more than offset losses in the others, but my poor choices certainly had me under performing where I could have been.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    there is a reason in my opinion. The cheap iranian oil which will pull down oil prices in 2014 seems to be the reason + I guess we are currently in a solar correction phase. Nothing exceptional after + 10x gains this year so far.
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    Good points. I was thinking more of the latter although I did see the deal with the Iranians. I was more worried about the China-Japan island spat.
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    Why would cheaper oil depress solar so badly? Doesn't solar largely compete with natural gas and coal? I know oil is used for some electricity production, but I thought it was a relatively minor in comparison.
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    guest

    don't let facts get in the way of this. market reacts emotionally many times and not rationally. its really quite amusing (although painful financially today). Lets hope it jumps up a similar amount tomorrow in its usual over-correction to an overreaction.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    this. I think it is an combination of different factors, as sleepy is saying all the time: Don't try to understand the short-term market reaction's on solar.
    I didn't want to imply that falling oil prices will cause lower solar demand (might have a very small correlation) but just that the market reacted that way, because maybe some are shifting positions in their energy-sector stocks and the market anticipated falling prices. I am pretty sure that today some stop-losses got triggered as well, it was quite a drop in the first two hours.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What a painful day for solar......really hurting today..... especially with CSIQ dropping so hard.

    Tomorrow morning it's JASO earnings day (before the open). Let's hope we bounce back fast.
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    A good buying opportunity. I am rooting for an ATH finish to the year
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    guest
    There is always a reason why solars move the way they do. They usually move in the wrong direction for the wrong reasons. I remember a couple of months ago a report came out the poly prices went up a bunch, so the whole sector rallied big time. This was dumb, because poly is the raw material and higher poly means lower margins for CSIQ, JKS, TSL, etc. But the market took at as a good sign that demand is picking up.

    What I am trying to get to is that if you want to trade solars then you have to be on top of every single piece of news out there, and then you still have to guess how the market is going to interpret that news. This is impossible to do with solar, because the more research you do on solar, the more you learn the truth. So you will end up interpretting news completely differently than that market does, because the market still applies the same principles to solar that it has been applying since 2008; even though it is a completely different market out there.

    You will not win by trading solars short-term. It really is a buy and hold investment.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I took this opportunity to buy CSIQ and JASO. there is no reason for Solar to drop because of bigger supply of oil report. oil is a temporary source of energy. Solar in my book is a permanent long term source of energy.

    but like most of you my portfolio had better days.
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    Any way for small time investors to get in on one of these bonds?
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    guest
    Way too expensive. Solar City charges $100/month for this, or $1200 per year, $24,000 over the 20 year lease. For a 10kWh battery that is over $2,000 per kWh.

    Way too expensive!
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    guest
    Haha, that's why I want one. Actually I want to buy one not lease it. They need to make this available to buy. If they don't, Magnum, Outback, or SMA will. And likely within the next 5 years.

    This unit dramatically simplifies installation and cost. This concept without the leasing is a huge game changer.
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    guest

    I think, along with Solar Panels, this would be a great "Option" to choose when people buy a new construction home as the cost will get diluted into the home price. For an exist home owner cost has gotta come down even for a lease unless you are wealthy and can outright buy one whether living in the city or the boonies. Eventually prices will come down. What's interesting is the battery has a Tesla logo on it, so Tesla is already making some sales against its accounting books...? That is news to me. So this Giga factory will produce these as well huh?

    That said JASO earnings better bring the mood back this week for Solar for a happy Thanksgiving. I crapped my pants the whole day today :)
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    JA Solar - Investors - News Release

    JA Solar Announces Third Quarter 2013 Results
    SHANGHAI, China, Nov. 26, 2013 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (Nasdaq:JASO) ("JA Solar" or the "Company"), one of the world's largest manufacturers of high-performance solar power products, today announced its unaudited financial results for its third quarter ended September 30, 2013.

    Third Quarter 2013 Highlights

    Shipments were 500.2 MW, consisting of 305.0 MW of modules and module tolling, and 195.2 MW of cells and cell tolling, above the high end of the Company's previous guidance of 470 MW and an increase of 7.9% from the second quarter of 2013
    Net revenue was RMB 1.8 billion ($287.3 million), compared to RMB 1.6 billion ($258.9 million) in the second quarter of 2013
    Gross margin was 11.3%, compared to gross margin of 8.1% in the second quarter of 2013
    Operating loss was RMB 31.6 million ($5.2 million), compared to operating loss of RMB 33.3 million ($5.4 million) in the second quarter of 2013
    Net loss, which included a non-cash change in fair value of warrant derivatives of RMB 138.3 million ($22.6 million), was RMB 227.0 million ($37.1 million), compared to net loss of RMB 132.4 million ($21.6 million) in the second quarter of 2013
    Loss per diluted ADS was RMB 6.77 ($1.11), compared to loss per diluted ADS of RMB 3.58 ($0.59) in the second quarter of 2013
    Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash at the end of the quarter were RMB 2.5 billion ($401.1 million), compared to RMB 2.2 billion ($355.8 million) at the end of the second quarter of 2013
    Operating cash flow was positive RMB 623.4 million ($101.9 million), compared to positive RMB 503.5 million ($82.3 million) in the second quarter of 2013
    Non-GAAP net loss1 attributable to the Company's ordinary shareholders in the third quarter of 2013 was RMB 90.2 million ($14.7 million), compared to a non-GAAP net loss attributable to the Company's ordinary shareholders of RMB 138.8 million ($22.7 million) in the second quarter of 2013
    Non-GAAP loss per diluted ADS was RMB 2.24 ($0.37), compared to Non-GAAP loss per diluted ADS of RMB 3.58 ($0.59) in the second quarter of 2013
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    So if I read this right, the three analyst consensus according to Yahoo is -$0.36 and JASO reported -$0.37 so essentially in line with expectation or at worst a $0.01 miss. Revenue estimate was $260M while they reported $287M so a beat. Ah, I see they changed their guidance upwards so hopefully this is considered positive. Will read the letter now.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Also, the GM improvement to double digits is good I think. I have though no clue what the analysts and investors were hoping for. Hopefully the recent downturn had muted expectations and it's considered a good beat with decent outlook. No 2014 guidance, but I hope someone can listen to the conf call and pick up some guidance info for 2014, I think it started 23 minutes ago?

    - - - Updated - - -

    60% from modules, 30% cells, now they are confused because the analyst is trying to figure out where the 10% came from :D

    - - - Updated - - -

    Haha, guess I joined at right time. Q about 2014 price. They expect about the same solar price as 2nd half 2013. Overall smaller ASP. 2-3% cost cut for silicon and 1-2% for (didn't understand, modules?).

    Preliminary documents for two provinces, hope end documents by Q1 end. No new projects this year that will be recognized. They do expect for next year. Expect to develop 200MW in 2014.

    They expect a little price decrease in Q1 (2-3%). Third quarter china shipments 40%. Hope to keep stable shipments in Q1, expect to grab some new markets to balance out chinese new year etc that usually are lower sales periods. They hope JP will offset that.

    - - - Updated - - -

    50MW worth of projects in planned development. All of them in China. Fully develop them and then transfer them.

    Asked about the 8.2GW utility cap by Chinese government and that top 8 are 10GW, asked if there is risk for missing some projects. JASO expects their 200MW projects to get approval as they were mostly developed this year etc. And their further out businesses are more in even further future so not likely to be hit by the next years gap.

    ASP was modules 66c, cells 37c.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Utilization rate right now 99% for cells. Maximum capacity 1GW for wafers, 1.8GW to module.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Upgrading cell and wafer capacity still ongoing. Internally contemplating module capacity expansion.

    - - - Updated - - -

    500-600MW facility creation takes ... (inaudible, 230M$?)

    - - - Updated - - -

    Mono/multi breakdown 50-50 over the year, but in recent quarter increasing multi demand. Their manufacturing can do either one relatively easily so changing the balance doesn't really add cost. CapEx evolution wise they plan to expand some of their capacity and plan to implement some new technology to increase efficiency. cell efficiency 19.3% for mono and hope for 0.3% improvement.

    Guidance for FY2014 will be given at a later time (someone asked for QoQ breakdown of projects and GM).

    Their underutilization penalty was 2c.

    Biggest exporter to EU for cells. Can't disclose price as it's part of a confidential agreement.

    - - - Updated - - -

    And call closed. Sorry for the gaps, understanding chinese english is tough ;)
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    Thanks Mario for the earnings call highlights.
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    Time to lose more money :)
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    Well the news are claiming JASO missed by $0.07 in EPS, but beat revenue and raised outlook. Stock down 6%
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    I have been burned so badly on short-term earnings trades recently that I think I will abandon it for the time being. If you're wrong, you're very wrong, and if you're right with regard to earnings, you're still wrong (JASO, TSLA)
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    Don't forget Tsl! :) that one still makes me sad.
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    So to turn this into a learning experience, as I'm still new to this...

    I'm guessing the institutional investors already knew what JASO and TSL would report. They see limits to growth in the near term, and they're reducing their position to take their cash gains. I'm still planning to hold for the long term.
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    Today is one of those days where I refrain from logging into my brokerage account, stand back, and look at the longer term perspective.
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    I have the feeling this bloodbath is now over, added some JKS, CSIQ and SOL. Wish I would have more cash around, long-term some of these prices are just ridiculous.
    The Cramer-show showed again that the market is still very much afraid of what happened 5 years ago, they don't get that the situation has changed:
    - Diversified demand. Not only europe, but the whole world wants solar
    - Most of the big players have diversified products, using the whole value-chain.
    - $ / watt are dropping like crazy, in a lot of places we have grid-parity, demand will increase even more.
    -->Think africa. This will be a very big market in the future. Electricity prices are high, demand is growing like crazy yet production is constrained.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ouch. The last 2 days have crossed the break even line I had in solar and it's now at a net loss. CSIQ had done so well it covered for most of the others, but even that can't counter the cumulative movements in solar over the last 10 days or so. SOL has far and away been my biggest loser. Between solar and TSLA, I'm down 60% from my portfolio high just about 6 weeks ago :(. All while the general market is hitting new highs.

    I suppose it was all gains from TSLA originally as I cashed out my original investment, but it certainly hurts looking and thinking it'll probably take several years even at a strong double digit annual return rate just to get back to where I was 6 weeks ago.
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    Looks like some recovery now from the initial lows for some of the solars. Maybe some will end flat or even green today...
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    JKS already 1 % up, is showing a lot of strength recently. And TSL is just a sorry story, lucky that I sold them a few weeks back.
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    Baby don't hurt me, don't hurt me, don't hurt me, no more... :)
    Smart money buying up solar again..?
    �
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    and CSIQ in the green :)
    wouldn't surprise me
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    guest
    Massive recovery from the big guys (JKS, CSIQ and SPWR)
    TSL and SOL hit massive resistance and got stuck.
    I bought more SOL on this dip. Just like many of you, I wish i had more cash to pile in today.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It was a great buying opportunity in the first hour- csiq and spwr already up by almost 2$ since their intra-day low!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    After that said, SOL breaks out. Headed back to greener pastures.

    I swear is JASO breaks back to even today i am going to lose it, haha. TSL takes a beating after an amazing ER and JASO delivers well dont get me wrong, but not to the level that TSL did, and has a chance to shrug it off.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hat off to those who had the balls to buy into CSIQ today.....I was out and couldn't trade but would like to think that if I had the chance....I would have bought something with the stock down 6% and recovering....
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I closed my entire CSIQ position today when it reached $30. I got rid of CSIQ calls a few days back. It's my way of dealing with the huge loss on TSLA Dec 21 calls. I've made more profit on CSIQ than the loss on TSLA, so I can finally live with it :wink: and learned a lot along the way.

    Hope CSIQ will keep going up from here, it will be an amazing story (already up 13x for the year!). I may buy in again, even if it goes up from here. Just had to do this profit taking to feel good again about my decisions (you lose some, you win some, it's all a game).

    And many here have expressed this before, thank you sleepyhead! Without you I wouldn't even have known about CSIQ.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well due to an attention lapse I accidentally bought two JASO calls instead of selling them, then after thinking for a while I shrugged and decided that that was a good move too. That was near the bottom and it turned out to be a good move indeed at least in the short term ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm not sure why, but that gave me a good laugh. Thanks for sharing.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Subliminal contrarian investing, that's too advanced for me! Awesome!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    I don't know when you purchased JASO or TSL, but I've learned a good time to buy is 2+ weeks prior to ER. Anything less the run up has already started.

    I'm long on a few solars too, and I think we'll do fine.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well that's better than me. I got into Solar late and have to bet on CSIQ and JKS and the sector going up in December and early next year. JKS strangely sold off today where most solars are up.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I got back into CSIQ today with Jan '16 $35 calls, much less risk (and reward probably ;-) ) than the Jan '14 calls I sold last week. Bought more TSLA Jan '16 $150 calls as well.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    % wise those calls are almost exactly the same on the upside. Interesting although probably total coincidence. With all the price targets for Tesla still being bumped down my warm n fuzzy about buying more TSLA is not quite strong yet. But shorter term, pending no more sudden negative news on Tesla, TSLA may slightly outperform solar and reach the $140s again and hang out there for a bit, after which Solar will likely overtake and outperform TSLA again. Lets see how things play out. Have a nice and safe Thanksgiving ya'll.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks for the link. I admit that I find that the stocks I follow most closely (TSLA, JASO, CSIQ and JKS) always seem to dip AFTER a positive SA article.:wink:


    Positive report about CSIQ: http://www.solarpvinvestor.com/spvi-news/831-canadian-solar-is-looking-strong-in-2014 I very much enjoy reading/researching on this site...solarpvinvestor
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Was going to post the CSIQ one too but looks like you beat me to it :) The author is long CSIQ, JKS, and SOL. I also posted an article above on th cyclical nature on Solar profits. What do you make of it?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, with the end of year approaching I'm going to have to clean out some positions for tax and cash flow reasons. Market timing is everything I guess. I was just too late to the game, not reading this thread until mid Oct which turns out to have been a poor time to buy. If I'd bought a month before that, the world would look much different.

    CSIQ (and JKS gets an honorable mention) has done its best to try and even things out, but TSL, JASO, and particularly SOL have been significant losses even if most of those had great overall years.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The fundamentals are still strong in Solar, however the bearish trend for the past two weeks have been the longest since the rally started this year. After a healthy earnings season this seems to be odd.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yea, I'll be holding a couple solars indefinitely, I'm not sour on them. Just bad timing to get into it and I might as well write off losses on some for this tax year.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I bought JKS at $34 (stock) and the 15% decline makes me think previous buyers of JKS went Black Friday shopping with my money :)
    -------------------------------------------

    Apparently George Soros bought 121K shares of JKS around $15+/share last. Not sure if he sold.

    Soros Posts Losses with JKS, TRQ and YUME, Sighs TGIF
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looks like the whole solar sector is slowing down recently..... did we see the (short/medium term) top?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was thinking the same thing this morning when CSIQ and JKS was taking another dump, only to see a strong recovery at half day. Here's some good articles released today on Solar. Happy reading:


    Solar News | Latest Solar Power and Renewable Energy News
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This article is two days old and has nothing to do with today's price movement. Solar is a very fast moving, (most of the times) news driven industry. You really have to stay on top of the game if you don't want to lose your shirt.

    It is a very risky industry that requires and immense amount of research just to have a fighting chance. Otherwise it is just gambling.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So what news is driving today's price movement, in your opinion?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    !!!!!!!!!!!!! Sorry guys.... was a bit too quick to post that.... did anyone discuss that piece of news on this forum?

    The whole solar herd is moving today significantly..... was there any impactful new news?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    IMO it is the bullish note J.P. morgan put out on solar yesterday mid-morning.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks. Any opinion on Renesola's ER tomorrow?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't know exactly what Q3 results will bring, but I think that the stock is a steal at $4.50. Look for guidance and update on poly plant; those two things will be key. Also wafers got excluded from the EU-China negotiated deal and that is a new piece of information we got this week - this should be a huge benefit for Renesola.

    I think that Renesola has (almost) the perfect business model for today's solar industry and the stock will do really good in 2014. I think it will hit double digit share price for sure.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hey Sleepyhead,

    I think you and someone else were putting together a site all about solar, is that finished? I already have some shares of Solar City, but would really like to get into some of these companies that actually make the panels. I agree with you that you have to study quite a bit on the sector, so I'm just looking for a starting place. I skim this thread every few days, so I know there are several companies to look at, but can't remember which ones are in the lead.

    Thanks!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You can find the site in my sig. It is a work in progress and we are planning on upgrading our site to 2.0 in the coming weeks at which point we should have better news flow. Then we will focus on getting more members who are interested in the topic. We will make a lot of money if we can focus on researching this industry as a team effort and then share our research and opinions.

    The five Chinese solar companies that are investible:

    CSIQ and JKS - the two leaders that have a chance to become even stronger, because they are profitable and generated a lot of cash flow in Q3. They will be able to start using this cash flow to dominate even more. Share prices are high for a good reason, but have plenty of room to run in 2014.

    TSL - Knocking on the door of the first two, but nowhere close to the leaders in my opinion. Now that the valuation has come down a little it is starting to become a more attractive buy. I prefer JKS and CSIQ over TSL though, but still have some minor TSL exposure.

    SOL and JASO - Two dark horses that are undervalued and can provide huge shareholder returns if they are able to turn a consistent profit. It might take them a quarter or two, but as of today it looks like it is only a matter of time; good to be in early on these two. Of course things change rapidly, so you really have to stay on top of the game.

    Everything else is speculative: CSUN, YGE, LDK, STP, DQ, etc.

    From the US solars I like SPWR the most, but I think that they all (SCTY, SUNE, FSLR) can do well (maybe even FSLR if they get their new Tetrasun panels in production soon; and they work).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have stock and calls in both. Stocks have been doing OK but my Mar 22 '14 $10 JASO calls are down 50%. I can't decide whether to get out and take a loss or buy more to average down. What do you think of the risk/reward for those given there is still 3.5 months to go?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I really can't help people with options, and I don't think anyone should be helping anyone else decide which calls/puts to buy/sell and when. I play options myself, but always discouraged others from playing options in solar because they are too volatile and the LEAPS are too expensive. You are on your own on this one. I think that everybody needs to be making their own options decisions 100% by themselves.

    I thought solar would go up big leading up to Q3 and I was right. I thought that solar would go up even bigger after the great Q3 and I was wrong. I think that there might be some window dressing solar stocks in the month of December (since it is the best performing sector of 2013) and it will lead to a rally in the next few weeks. Some agree with me, but others think they might go down in December and then start a rally on Jan. 2.

    I really have no idea what the solar industry will do in the short-term, but over 12+ months it is still looking really, really, really good. That can change in short notice though, but I doubt it will any time soon.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Great info. Thank you. I will start doing my own research on them.....I knew you liked SPWR the best from keeping track of this thread, it's gone up and it's at $30 now. Is this a good time to get in or wait?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If I had that crystal ball I would be the richest man in the world :wink:

    SPWR is still off 15%+ from it's high posted a few weeks back, so it is not the worst time to buy. It is just a matter of what do these solar stocks do in the short run, will they continue showing weakness or will they pop at any moment. I think that $30 is a great price for SPWR; it should be a lot higher by end of 2014. You might see lower prices in the next few weeks, but I wouldn't count on it.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I see. Thank you. I just don't want to get in where I shouldn't. I should have put some money in the company when I first saw you talking about it, but I was focused on Solar City.....one more thing - do you focus any at all on how the companies are managed or just on the trends? I try and follow the "Buffett" code by looking for companies with strong management.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't really focus on mgmt. because you will never get a true picture of management unless you actually work on Wall St. and personally know these guys that run these companies. I focus on business models, financials, and most importantly the macroeconomic picture within the industry.

    In 2013 solar was so undervalued that it was a no-brainer to invest in the industry with improving economics. These stocks are still undervalued and the economics are only getting better. You can argue that these stocks are fairly valued today, but that depends on your view of 2014. The way I see 2014, it looks like these stocks will have plenty of room to run. Now is the stage when research really becomes beneficial to choosing the right stocks. 2013 was just too easy.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sleepy and Norse: Got a prediction on Renasol (SOL) Q3ER and what will happen to the roughly $4.50 close price? I know with JASO and SOL predictions are a 'crap shoot' but just curious. I am not placing more money on your prediction...:wink:

    Disclosure: SOL is my smallest holding ( JKS>CSIQ>SCTY>JASO>TSL>SOL )
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am not gonna predict anything, but I do have a shitload of SOL Calls.
    After JKS and TSL ERs it really shows how hard it is to predict the solar market, but the Stocks have lost alot of value since then.
    The recent trading in SOL shows IMO that there is not much expectations for them this time, but I hope they have som surprises.

    Anyways, I hold CSIQ, JKS and SOL atm. I also hold some JASO Calls, but they are not Worth much ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Haha I like your enthusiasm. :biggrin: I'm on the same boat but think mine are APR so hopefully they will yield some profit before expiration. Hopefully, Christmas will come as early as tomorrow.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am surprised you don't have any SPWR.

    If I had to guess, I would say EPS -$0.10 excluding extraordinary items, 10.5% gross margin, $380m revenue. Complete guess on my part, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a small profit though.

    The most important thing is that SOL is probably the most undervalued solar stock right now and it really doesn't have any room to go lower. The market is pricing it like a failing company, but all signs point to a company that is about to turn around in a great way.

    Unless something out of the ordinary happened to make SOL's future prospects look a lot less promising, there really is no room left for the stock to go down any lower; absolutely none. We will find out tomorrow, but remember that SOL is sold out of panels for at least 6 months so you would have to be an idiot to sell out and still be losing money.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am positioned only in SOL stock, but I do have some OTM JASO options...small amounts March '15 $11 (ouch) but Jan '16 $8 (hope there). Currently both are 'in the red'. I really am going to stick to stocks and LEAPS. Shorter term options just lose me $.

    OK. Hypothetically speaking:wink:. If you had a certain dollar amount that you wanted to put into 'solar' and you held positions in JKS, CSIQ, TSL, SCTY, JASO and SOL which would you sell to buy SPWR?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'd sell CSIQ, it's already done 13x just this year.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hypothetically speaking I would have sold SCTY ay $65 and bought SPWR at $30. Since you like SCTY then keep it, because your other 5 positions don't really offer any diversification. I wouldn't sell anything other than SCTY, but you might want to keep that one. So sell a little of everything to buy some SPWR. Normally I would have said to sell TSL, but it is beaten down so much that it might be due for a rally in the near future; actually they all are.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Alternative Energy Investor Discussions (formerly SCTY thread)

    The nice thing about the solar industry is that high level management is usually accessible. If you attend the big solar shows you can likely meet some of the VP's and possibly even the ceo's. Also watching how the employees of the companies act during these shows is a big eye opener. There is a solar hot water manufacture that we will never do business with because of their marketing gimmick they pulled at a big show last year. It was the most tasteless thing I have ever seen a major company do.

    If you are spending tens of thousands of dollars investing in the solar industry it's probably a good idea to spend the $700 for a plane ticket $150 for an expo floor pass, and $400 for a night or two at a hotel.
    �
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