Thứ Năm, 27 tháng 10, 2016

Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements part 26

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am typing on my phone since my dawn power went out, so I will give you a very short response:

    looking QoQ from Q4 to Q2 it seems that growth is just me and not near 100% per year like the stock is pricing in right now.

    Wall St. does not look much past 3 months ahead, and they really do not care too much about the long term...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Tesla will be at two conferences next week, Deutsche Bank and Wedbush IIRC. realize this is very likely wishful thinking... but if Elon pulled out 2015 guidance on Solar City, perhaps he mentions something in the 60-70K vehicle delivery range for 2015 next week (analysts seem to be expecting 45-60K, low 50K average backing out from revenue estimates).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And I for one thank you for that. Was right on the fence and needed something to persuade one direction or the other. Your posts helped pull my pre ER position to my bare long position savings me $s of loss. Your thoughts and others on this forum are extremely valuable and are likely heeded by more than you realize. Please keep your opinions coming, they DO make a difference, especially on fence sitting decisions. Thank you Sleepy (and others here as well)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You've been arguing this point for a while now Steve.

    I guess I can see why you think that way, but everything points to this being a momentum stock.

    Tech Stock with big ideas: check
    tons of speculation: check
    high volatility: check
    large number of die hard supporters: check
    called a momentum stock on every media channel: check
    jesus CEO: check

    I mean if it walks like a duck... etc. etc.

    Thats not to say TSLA is vaporware like most other momentum stocks. It actually has a product, a future regardless of stock price. But that doesn't mean it isn't a real company being treated like a momentum stock.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    exactly, which is the problem with company's having to report quarterly. Really, TSLA is focused on Gen3, it's very clear from yesterdays call, and their current products exist to get them to Gen3, setting up their service centers, Superchargers, retail stores, etc, this is all being setup for the future. Sure, they have the Model S and soon the Model X, they are to generate cash flow and keep improving their technology... the real "meat" of Tesla won't be here until 2017... maybe they can accelerate it, we'll see.

    One more point, the reason Elon & JB are so FOCUSED on 2017? Very simple, its a small matter of having to start to repay $2.3B in loans, Tesla has to gear up for a much larger volume, mass market car, to complete the stated mission of bringing electrification to the mass market & to meet their future financial obligations.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sounds like the next Apple to me when it came out with the iPod. There's never going to be a wrong or right for certain. Everyone will be right or wrong depending on the time. It's just a matter of looking at the fundamentals. It's strikes us as odd because all the valuations of Tesla were based on the same metrics, but now the market is in risk off mode, when we have more concrete plans to secure Tesla's future.

    I think what people are missing is... The crazy potential for some ridiculous margin gains with this Giga factory... Yes they'll be making Gen 3's but I'm pretty sure the ASP's will be increased. Because they are also using commodity cells, the Model X and S Version 2's will have significantly more margin than the current models.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Perspective
    not sure if it helps anyone else on here who owns shares or long term LEAPs but I often in my head just divide the share price by 10 and pretend there are 10 times as many outstanding shares (I.e. Same market cap) and that I have 10 times more shares.
    When I do that I look at the movement of the price with a much calmer mind. A stock going from 20 down to 17.50 the day after earnings meeting expectations is not the end of the world and feels kind of like a good buying opportunity, especially if it drops any further...but for some reason when I think of a stock going from 200 down to 175 in one day it is much more stressful and like the stock may not recover for a long long time.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I like perspective in hard times. Anyone lucky enough to be on these forums has already won the mother of all lotteries, birth lottery.:wink:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    Cwin, I disagree with your definition of a momentum stock.

    I think what really defines momentum stocks is speculation of potential future earnings of a level no one really has a clear handle on and a probability of success of reaching any particular level of earnings no one has a clear handle on. With no one having a reference point of what earnings might be, and how probable they are, the stock price has no bearings, and moves with sentiment.

    An example of such a momentum stock would be a social media stock, for example Facebook a couple years back. A billion users, so, to a momentum buyer, "yeah, they'll figure out how to quantify that user base and they'll be a giant this century." to a momentum seller, "how do we know they'll monetize any of those users. how do we know Facebook doesn't become "uncool" and that billion erodes steeply over a few years." (I say Facebook a couple years back, because while I don't follow the company at all, apparently at this point they've had some success figuring out how to make money, and there is considerably more of a sense of how to estimate future earnings now).

    Tesla on the other hand, while of course not having certain earnings, has potential future earnings based on successful design and execution of a third generation product based on their second generation product. Successful execution of a Gen III product clearly has a market, as opposed to the vague notion in 2012 of monetizing a billion facebook users. Potential earnings based on a successful 3rd generation product are also not pulled out of thin air, but rather on concrete information about the Fremont plant's capacity, the capital Tesla has on hand, the margins they are getting on the second generation product and how credible management is when they estimate margins, capital needed for Gen III, etc., based on their track record for the 2nd generation product. of course, probability of execution on Gen III is not a certainty, but such estimation of probability is far more meaningful than the wild guess of "one day this social media company will figure out how to make money from all these people on it's website."

    So, we may argue about the probability of 2020 Tesla reaching our earnings target, and we may argue about various inputs in estimating that earnings target, but based on 500,000 vehicles, low to mid teens margins Tesla has suggested, and mid to low $40K ASP, I'm not alone in a ballpark $15 eps estimate. that is a point of reference from which I decide whether I think TSLA is cheap or expensive. I think what defines momentum stocks is the lack of such a credibly based point of reference. This is why I don't consider TSLA a momentum stock.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    In some respects a momentum stock is still independent of the fundamental business even if that business is very good. Its more about the type of trade it is being involved in. Sometime last year the stock went from significantly undervalued to not so undervalued to maybe fairly valued and even possibly beyond fairly valued.

    Of course it all depends if you value it as a non-growth stock vs. rest of industry or growth stock vs. rest of industry or a company with significant disruptive potential.

    It doesn't really matter if alot of the volume and the push to $250+ was driven by traders just looking for a stock with a strong directional move. If it was, then that last push may have been supported by one of the above valuation models from an external perspective but for the actual buyers it may have been more to make a quick trade.

    What many of us are reacting to is that the earnings call was a clear, strong show of execution towards rapid product and revenue growth but the stock reaction was not. I (and others) don't think the investment thesis has broken down or been challenged by the results.

    Those on the other side don't seem to have a cogent argument on why the valuation should have been so impacted other than it was overvalued to begin with.

    If there was a significant push by momentum traders, than the reasons behind the change in the momentum do not matter as much as the move itself. In this case it may be true.

    I think we have a significant growth stock that had alot of momentum traders on the way up and now on the way down.

    But my bet is on the growth, and I expect to see this back about $220 in the next 6 months as it becomes clear that the company is set up for 75-100% y/y growth with expansion of the production lines and introduction of the X.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I do this mental exercise all the time with TSLA, helps me cope with days like yesterday.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I sort of do the opposite of this. TSLA's drop today covered more ground than my entire original investment (@21 bucks). That would be a big deal, I guess, except it was only an 11% drop. Which means Tesla is about 9x what it was at when I started in it. Which means things are going pretty damn great and this is just a bump in the road on an investment return which people would generally kill for (~900% in 2-3 years, if you count from now, and don't count the shares I sold at 240...). And if you ask me, it wasn't even that risky of an investment to begin with.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That's a great position to be in, congrats on getting in so early.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Can I just point out the obvious: Tesla guided 7500 deliveries for next quarter, analysts were expecting 7800.

    Stocks are predictors of future earnings, not present. It doesn't matter if Tesla beat or not (they did) the guidance was more important and it was soft. This introduces a tiny bit of doubt over whether or not Tesla can scale fast enough to meet the lofty expectations that are assumed in the stock price. We don't need to invoke the Boogeyman hedge funds that are surely "manipulating" the market to explain this drop. It was slightly disappointing guidance in an environment where the market is very skittish.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    While I completely agree with you what were analysts expecting for production though? Production of 8,500 to 9,000 sounds pretty decent to me, and I am happy to see they are filling the pipeline instead of just trying to rack up the highest number of deliveries at the end of the quarter. The joke is will the stock go up if they produce 8,750 and deliver 8,000 next quarter? Then they exceed guidance? I mean I would think production should matter more than deliveries. But either way Mr. Market is Mr. Market and we know he is certifiably insane.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Regardless if you believe or don't believe, TSLA is heavily manipulated. These funds know it's going to be huge someday (the most valuable company on the NASDAQ?) they ride it up and down, to profit in both directions. Once the battery floodgates open, it's going to get harder to manipulate TSLA, so they use every current opportunity. It's no "boogeyman", it's just how they play the game...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The thing that makes it hard for me regarding manipulation is why have hedge funds not done better. Returns on hedge funds are not that great especially considering their fees. On the other hand SAC is an example where they actually got caught. So maybe there are lots of bad hedge funds ready to profit from high fees and riding on the success of the few "good" ones that truly manipulate the market to their benefit. To me it I am agnostic. I can say on the assumption that they turn the stock around again and run it up the manipulation is good for my portfolio. I buy more when it is on a downtrend and when it is skyrocketing I sell what I bought on the downtrend. So unless the stock is somehow kept down for years I'll end up better off thanks to manipulation.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks FR. Cramer's comments are very revealing (unless he is lying about past lying he says he and the other hedge funds did).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    For the record, I don't find Cwin's posts inflammatory or trollish. I think he read very well TSLA's situation both before and after ER, and profited from it. It's hard to be on the losing side, but arguing with the fairness or logic of the result is pointless. We lost this one.

    It's not even a matter of having different views about the future of the company. You can very well think Tesla will swallow the auto industry 3 years from now, and at the same time take a good opportunity to land a punch against it when you see it with its hands down for a fraction of a second.

    Even though I believed and stated we'd go lower, I didn't touch my positions, because I thought, and still think, we'll recover. The problem is it may take a few months, during which my J15s will shrivel to irrelevance, so that was a big mistake on my part. I'm saying all this to make it clear that the shorts landed their collective punch directly on my nose, and now I'm all bloodied and dizzy, but so what? You gotta roll with them punches.

    TSLA is like the new, skinny kid who arrived out of nowhere and challenged all the jocks to a fight. Everyone ignored him until he started getting all the attention of the ladies, so now the jocks are furious. Of course they're gonna gang up on him every time he looks weak.

    But let's remember that longs got the shorts' lunch money almost every day last year. So we had to return some of the loot this week. Big deal. It's only temporary. Even the jocks know they'll end up alone at the prom, can you blame them they don't just disappear into the night without a fight?

    The Petersens and Santos of the world are dishonest scum, but Cwin, incidentally, doesn't strike me like one of them at all. He's more like the guy on the sidelines who doesn't want to stand with the skinny kid when he's having his ass kicked because, what's in it for him? He's just opportunistically taking advantage of today's trend. Tomorrow, I'm betting he will take advantage of the opposite trend. I can't blame him for having read the situation better than me.

    So I'll say, you landed a good punch, Cwin. But I'll get back up. Watch out :).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I wouldn't have put it that way, but sure why not.

    In better news, it seems like TSLA is following the rest of the market rather than going through another selloff. I could be wrong, bit it seems like this could be calming down earlier than expected.

    I was thinking 3-5% drop today, but it looks like +-1% either way is what we will get.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yea, my J15s seem hopeless. $300 by J15 seems impossible given guidance. Well, $318 to break even.Then again, when the stock was $120, something like $220 seemed a very, very long way off.

    For my J15s, the question now is salvage. Will the stock recover soon enough that it's worth holding on to them for a while and trying to reduce the loss I've got now? Or do I take the loss now and reinvest in a more reasonable J16 strike (or stock)? I'd thought, back when I'd bought the J15s, it was far enough out that the rolling LEAPS plan didn't seem that high risk and we'd already seen a substantial drop down to $220. But it certainly hasn't panned out so far.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    52 week low is now $63. I expect that to be climbing rapidly.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I plan on holding mine. The downside risk is almost nil as they have lost most of their value so my risk/reward says for me to hold.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Same issue here,my calls are in the red, $300 looks far away from here;)
    Still I am planning to hold through, the overall story is still the same.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have a slew of J15 300/320's as well. I added some 250's before ER and some 230's yesterday. My plan is to hold through to Q2 ER in August and roll them to J16 in August or September at the latest, regardless of whether they're in the red or not.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm keeping mine. It's a risk I'm willing to take.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ditto -- and with 80% of the value already wiped out, keeping the remaining shards of hope seems like a reasonable play.

    Moderator's Note: some tete-a-tete posts were moved to snippiness.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    How can you be so confadent in this expectation? :wink:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I could make a killing forecasting the 52 week low!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Don't you go jynxing it.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks Sleepyhead, and all the others who provide such valuable data here. With all the info I was able to glean here, I also didn't have a very good feeling about heading towards this ER. I'm pretty much just a long term holder (though I read every word here anyway), but I was coming up on needing some more cash to finish paying for an addition I'm putting on the house and decided to pull it out before ER and not risk having to sell a larger number of shares afterwards if it dropped. Worked out well, since I'd have to sell 300 shares now to get what I got Monday for 250 shares. Now let's get back to the good news and friendly winds.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So I guess the "explanation" that they've settled on this time around is that guidance was soft and that's why the stock went down? When the call specifically said delivery (but not production) guidance was lower because of pipeline filling, and when the exact same thing happened last quarter and didn't result in a drop?

    This sounds like the many "explanations" of why Q3 went down, I saw tons of articles and all of them had a different "reason." One of them said it was because of increased R&D expenditure or something...which is sort of a hilarious reason to sell off a cutting edge growth company. When you get so many different explanations and nobody can settle on one reason, that tells me that none of the reasons are sufficient, and people are scratching their head trying to figure out why. Because there's no real reason why, so they have to either a) make up reasons which wouldn't justify it at all because they're not truly negative or b) just make stuff up completely (like the people who labeled earnings a "miss" because the gaap revenue was lower than the non-gaap consensus expectations...).

    And when a stock is down for no reason, that tells me it's nearing time to buy that stock.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The comparison with Q3 is so striking. The stock went to $188 immediately and on high volume, before I could get the shareholder letter on the website, despite constant refreshing. I simply cannot buy that a disappointment with soft guidance or any other "softness" prompted this. This is the same way it went down then as well.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thing is, once the first bot-sell off happens, the rest is self-fulfilling. People see that people are disappointed with the ER, and start looking for reasons. They all come up with a different one because there isn't any real one. It's very ex post facto.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm thinking that in the first seconds the ER comes out, you may have bots that are less sophisticated and selling because they see a downtrend starting. Hey, it's easier to design a bot to sense a trend and jump in than actually design something that will read the ER and react rationally.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was not able to listen to the call, last night I did read through the transcript. My observations...

    Model X is intriguing me more and more. Their commentary about making the production version better than the show version was interesting. I think Model X is going to be really amazing. Plus they are taking time to get it perfect in the development stage so production can ramp quickly. They continue to impress me with their thoughtfulness.


    As the "master plan" is coming into fruition Elon is sharing the spotlight more and more. First it was Jerome and more recently JB has been getting facetime. I wonder if JB is a candidate for CEO for when Elon eventually goes full time to SpaceX. JB is a founder and was even commenting on some financial aspects of the business (about reaching 28% margin at end of year) in the call which surprised me. I really like what he has to say and he represents the company well with a high degree of technical knowledge. I think Elon will want this in his CEO.

    I also liked how they discussed the need for gigiafactory to come on line in the timing they need it to or else they will have a factory, tooling and manpower but no cells to build the cars. They are bringing space craft style redundancy to their manufacturing and infrastructure. I am not an expert but this struck me as very calculated and well thought out.

    In all, I see the "master plan" progressing at a quick pace and it gives me confidence that Gen III is going to happen within 3 years of Model X launch. Will continue to hold my shares and buy on weakness. Losing interest in options though as the volatility is really unpredictable and I have other things to do than monitor every article and post here.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    a

    hi Fango

    your name seems very appropriate. Isn't the fact that Tesla had to make what appeared to be a last minute "Hail Mary Pass" attempt to get over 10-15% of the 1st qtr sales delivered to a far off small country in order to avoid a disastrous miss on Sales a good enough reason for unbiased, rational investors to take pause?

    what am I missing?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    apparently the the whole point about their business being production constrained. Despite lack of marketing, despite lack of a dealer network, despite a multi month wait to actually get your car.

    Why should tesla only launch a car in the US? Please name another auto company doing something that asinine?

    why don't you share your wisdom regarding second, third and fourth quarter sales with us? That way we can check back in during the rest of this year and see if tesla continues to grow per mgmt guidance (my bet) or whatever it is you see?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You are missing the fact that some of the logistics are easier if you ship lots of vehicles to the same place at the same time. Also I believe some incentives in Norway go away at the end of the year, so it was advantageous for Tesla to really saturate the country early.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    GP, I can understand the line or reasoning in your statement, however, Tesla stated unequivocally on the May 7th conference call that Q2 is completely sold out. This implies Tesla is sold out at least 2 months forward, as part of Q3 may be sold out as well. So, while I can see the Norway deliveries gave you a moment to pause and conjecture potential demand issues, we now have a direct statement of demand convincingly continuing to outpace supply.

    (fwiw, as to other explanations of the large Norway deliveries: if I recall correctly, the Model S deliveries to Norway in March set a new record in Norway of sales of ANY vehicle EVER in one month. Tesla does not have an advertising budget, outside of Norway, the EU generally has not seen the kind of Teslamania seen in the U.S. in 2013 or currently in China. I think Tesla is looking to get Model S/X sales to 100K+ by 2016. I think headlines of the Model S having the best sales month of any vehicle ever in Norway is a pretty good way to lay the groundwork for the level of European demand needed in outyears to get over 100K+ vehicles sold. China may go absolutely wild over the Model S and X, but I don't think Tesla or its investors are served by taking this for granted that EU sales growth is not necessary... good free publicity in the EU is worth having while it is there for the taking).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I THOUGHT almost the same thing (113 MS/MX sold in 2016), until I've read the latest 10-Q, which pretty much confirms our thoughts. From now on I will drop I think, and just say that Tesla PLANS to sell at least 100K of MS/MX in 2016:

    From p.20, under the Performance-Based Stock Option Grant heading:

    In January 2014, to create incentives for continued long term success beyond the Model S program and to closely align executive pay with our stockholders� interests in the achievement of significant milestones by our company, the Compensation Committee of our Board of Directors granted stock options to certain employees to purchase 782,500 shares of our common stock. Each such grant consists of four vesting tranches with a vesting schedule based entirely on the attainment of future performance milestones, assuming continued employment and service to us through each vesting date.


    		�
    		1/4th of the shares subject to the options are scheduled to vest upon completion of the first Model X Production Vehicle;

    		�
    		1/4th of the shares subject to the options are scheduled to vest upon achieving aggregate vehicle production of 100,000 vehicles in a trailing 12-month period;

    		�
    		1/4th of the shares subject to the options are scheduled to vest upon completion of the first Gen III Production Vehicle; and

    		�
    		1/4th of the shares subject to the options are scheduled to vest upon achievement of annualized gross margin of greater than 30.0% in any three years.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sorry if this has been mentioned, since I haven't read every post. I think the end of the report, which said 2014 would end with a loss for the year (because of rapid expansion), is the main reason the stock took a big hit. We see the expansion as a good thing because it solidifies the future of Tesla, but I think the average investor didn't like it.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just for the record, no incentives in Norway are going away at the end of the year. There is a political debate about whether to remove free bus lane use and free parking, but the official line is still that all incentives remain until 2017 or until >50,000 vehicles are sold in total (total as of Jan 1st: 20,000).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I see......so is there any evidence of significant sales improvement in EU sales since the Norway record deliveries in March?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It may not be possible to see evidence of demand upside above current production rate. We can only speculate based on order book and deposits. The other side however, global demand below the current production rates, would be very easy to spot if it were to happen, but we are not seeing such evidence.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, No (glass half empty) but there could be (glass half full).....Since TM does not issue monthly sales figures, let alone country by country or region by region ones. Our only knowledge of these figures comes from our European friends digging into registration numbers. My 'glass half full' (but also my opinion/my logic) is that while TM is supply constrained and trying to open up new markets...NA to Europe to China to RHD countries they are shipping cars and setting up SCs to not only support those vehicles but, without advertising, get their brand in front of people. So, any regional sales are not as important as overall demand/sales. Since it has been stated that all the Q2 production is already spoken and deposits for the X now exceed 15,000, and increasing every day, I will put my worries more on execution of the building of the GF than I will on demand in any particular region or the fact that the X has been delayed.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agree on GF.
    Bottleneck is battery
    Also with cost reduction and better efficiency, TM will enjoy higher margin

    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't know... the news of the record came out early April, it would take a few months for any uptick in orders to flow through to deliveries (lag for customers in other EU countries to see the news, take a harder look at Tesla, decide to buy, place order, have car built, shipped and delivered). in the meantime, you could ask on the EU thread here in the investor's forum if the Norway story got any significant coverage in the other EU countries. finally, fwiw, as you'll see in my post, this is about building recognition and interest for sales in the out years (2014 demand is not an issue)... I think the Teslamania phenomena we saw in the U.S., and see now in China, is sort a cumulative process. Hopefully, the Norway news was a piece of that, and other near term events will add on (i.e., some of that Norwegian fleet driving through other countries this summer as a SuperCharger network comes on line in earnest) but that remains to be seen.

    @GP, what do you make of Tesla's prospects in China?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Regarding Tesla's driving through Europe to increase visibility..

    There are (relatively) quite a lot of Tesla's in The Netherlands and many of those owners would love to be able to use their MS for their vacations in Germany, France, Italy, Croatia etc. It could help if Tesla could be a bit more open on their plans and status / progress of SuperChagers on these popular routes South. People are making their vacation plans now.

    To my opinion the Tesla SuperCharger European webpage should ASAP get a "Coming Soon" tab and update. Long overdue really. Many people considering ordering an MS seem to be waiting for the European SC plans to progress. A promise to 200 new SC in 2014 is great info for us insiders, but not seen by these customers-to-be. They simply look at the Tesla website an see no plans other then 'End of 2014'. Also Elon seems to think so, as he specifically referred to such an update during his Amsterdam visit.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So, assuming this mornings movement holds, which it may or may not, does anyone have an explanation for whats going on?

    The rest of the market is up, other tech stocks are up, yet SCTY is flatish and TSLA is bouncing around -1%

    My current guess is that since we have the circuit breaker gone, a lot of new shorts are coming in.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think the shorts are testing how much fear still exists among the longs. With the current headlines pointing in every direction imaginable, it's the perfect moment for them to try to capitalize on the confusion. They'll push for as long as it's practical, after which TSLA will resync with the NASDAQ. That's my reading of it.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agreed. That being said, its a pretty weak push. If the NASDAQ doesn't **** a brick later today. I expect this will end up being a pretty green week.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Cwin, I may be mistaken, but I think you wrote last week that you have a short position in Tesla (fwiw, I don't have any problem with it if you do). If you do, are you looking for a quick small percentage move trade in the next few days, or are you looking to hold the position for a substantial, say 10%+, move?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I had a short position over the past few days, since the ER. Obviously it hasn't paid off much after the ER.

    I haven't decided what I'm going to do for the rest of the week yet. I think it will be a decent week, but I haven't yet looked at the weeks coming events for TSLA and the market in general.

    If there aren't any mild catalysts, then I think we will see a slow climb back to 185-189 this week.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    thanks for posting your position. I'm not clear though... do you think it will be a decent week for your short position or for TSLA longs? where do you see the price headed this week?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I got out my short position this morning with the small drop.

    And by short, I just had some 177.5 puts for the 17th.

    I find it hard to justify, without any research, taking another short position. So it looks like a good week for longs in my eyes.

    That being said, the without further research is a big caveat, I find this board unreliable for negative news, or even negative speculation.

    My current target, including a large amount of guesstimation, is 185-189 by friday.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    okay, appreciate your straightforwardness.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If you want more honesty. I bought some 200 may 30th calls while I do some more research today. If I can't find any significant reasons for us to not keep moving up back to 200, I'll just keep those.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    well, those I'll wish you good luck with ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ha! Tesla just got an out-of-the-blue endorsement on CNBC.

    The host asked the guest, at the end of a short interview, what company she admired most, and the answer was, "well, TESLA!" And who was the fearless endorser? Jennifer Anniston.

    So now, real housewives in Cali and elsewhere might consider picking up a Model S after shopping for their hair care products (which Aniston was there to push.) $250 must be just around the corner!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thank you Jennifer Anniston.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Really market? Really? Massive 3-year profit potential is de-risked heavily in the latest ER, but no, it takes Rachel from Friends to increase the market cap of Tesla Motors? :rolleyes:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Everybody knows Tesla is production constrained.

    Is there absolutely no concern that the "Hail Mary Delivery" of cars to Norway was so last minute?
    was this just a one time mistake by management?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I wouldn't characterize it as a mistake. They delivered what they said they would, in the month they said they would.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Gravity, you raised some questions, several of us responded. 30seconds and myself have now taken a turn in asking you some questions... are you interested in taking a turn in answering?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Am I concerned...Yes. Greatly concerned: No. Why: I have no idea why they made that many Norway deliveries in Q1.....and we won't know. They made their guidance, appear to be well received in China; NA demand growth of 10%; supply constrained. I am not even worried about the X. If I have real concerns/worries it is about Gigafactory/ability to ramp up from say 100,000 X/S production that they are capable of with Panasonic increased battery delivery to enough batteries from the Gigafactory for an additional 300-500,000 Gen III in 3 years.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Evidently the logistics weren't so easy. Otherwise they wouldn't have needed to rush employees from other parts of the world to Norway in last few days of the quarter in a desparate attempt to barely meet projected delivery numbers.

    from what I understand Norway's incentives to buy electric vehicles are Not going away this year. Am I wrong?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Based on another poster's comments the Norway incentives, while not guaranteed to stay appear to be safe for at least another year. Logistics: Probably easier to move people around for a short period than to have cars go undelivered in time to meet the Q1 deadline.

    BAsed on your questions and comments what are your thoughts on TM's ability to reach it's timing and production goals? BAsed on those thoughts what are your price targets short term (up to and including Q2 ER); medium (through Q4 ER 2015); long term (beyong that)

    Mine short: 170-225 (volitile, not sure if we are 170 or 220 at QER2
    medium: I think we blow out Q3ER this time; post ER 250-270; Post Jan 2015 Detroit Auto Show/Q4 ER: $300

    long term: ?? All depends on execution of Gigafactory/China sales; I have small concerns about US/Europe demand.......We need China
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I recall some blurb about Tesla setting a record for deliveries in a month in Norway for any vehicle model. Given the love between Tesla and Norway, they may have seen how much was going to Norway in March anyway and pushed for that record.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Lemme take at shot at this question, with some local knowledge. The incentives are not going anywhere. What I believe happened was that in late 2013 they changed pricing and people were invited to finalize their order before a certain date in order to get the old pricing. Many people with pending order did. Their cars were built and there were reports of large amounts of Norway car stock-piling in Fremont. They had some logistic challenges both with getting the cars across the pond and then to Drammen port. Quite a few people had their estimated delivery pushed from February to March. They did make a push to get as many cars as possible delivered in March, cars that were due to be delivered in that month and quarter so yes - they did rush employees etc. and this was to meet delivery numbers but even more to meet their promises to customers. It had nothing to do with production, which has ramped up steadily.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Little bit of a slump despite the expert endorsement.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am not analytical enough to think my estimates of 2nd, 3rd and 4th Sales are of much value. However as I've said before I am concerned there may not be as many people in the world with the means and desire to buy a $100,000 Tesla as will be needed to keep the stock price up until GenIII is truly ready.

    I am well aware that Tesla has not yet "advertised" it's products. However is choosing NOT to advertise the most effective form of Advertising?
    Instead do a ton of PR, Social Media, etc., and let all your fans remind everybody that "this company is so hot it Doesn't even need to Advertise!!"
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Concern? No. I think it was great, actually: free press of workers pulling overtime to make thousands of customers happy? I'll take two, please.

    Those cars were put on the boat weeks earlier. Maybe there was some delay in the boat and so the cars arrived days or weeks later than planned.

    If they had wanted to juice the numbers for Q1, they would have delayed some percentage of overseas cars and concentrated on building and delivering cars for the US instead. They didn't.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The TSLA stock price is based on future prospects. Recent production levels and March deliveries to Norway are largely irrelevant. A young growth company with huge potential to disrupt major industries cannot be evaluated in the quarterly manner of a long established manufacturer.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No biggie. The thing is, I sincerely believe we're wasting time on the Norway deliveries and NA demand. There are plenty of things to worry about that could affect the stock both in the short and the long term, just not those.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm not good at preparing or expressing forecasts. However this is where my less upbeat point of view comes from. I got my Model S Dec 2012 and quickly became an obsessed Tesla fan. Started buying the stock when it was in the mid 30's, started buying LEAPS around Oct/Nov 2013. While the stock was dropping in Nov I told all my friends and anyone with an ear that TSLA looked like a bargain. I loaded up on more and more LEAPS and in mid January of this year profited tremendously.
    I tell people nearly everyday that my Model S IS THE BEST CAR EVER MADE!

    Soon after getting the car I became convinced it was just a matter time before orders and reservations in the US would skyrocket. While US sales have increased significantly. However Sales per Tesla Showroom have dropped! (Correct me if I'm wrong).

    how could this be?

    if the other ~25k Tesla owners are half as vocal about the Model S incredible qualities the Reservations and Orders should be increasing at a much higher pace.

    I'm realizing that there was great pent up demand in 2013 and that there probably aren't enough Americans with means and/or desire to buy a $100k car.

    my greatest concern is that the same may happen in EU and China. Then what would happen to stock if worldwide demand for $100k cars is not enough to keep sales increasing at rate acceptable to Wall Street until GenIII is ready.

    Among other concerns is that people in China live in buildings that make charging of EV's difficult. Isn't NY City an example of few Tesla owners due to same issue? What if GenIII is as delayed as Model X has been.
    will list more concerns later....gotta go for a spin in my Model S
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks. Just trying to get a 'handle' on what you believe/project will happen in short, medium and long term. I don't think anyone can answer your question about long term demand for the S and X in any market. My hope is that TM can make enough headway, both money wise and brand recognition wise, to pay for Genn III which is where the stock appreciation will really come from. I 'believe' the demand for the S and X, and the money TM makes will be able to achieve their mission statement but I do not have anything other than the belief and when one invests in a company doesn't that what it comes down to.....You like your S, you believe in the TM mission but you HOPE they can achieve it and in so doing make your investment grow.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Feel free to disregard this unsolicited suggestion, but maybe avoiding options would help you sleep better at night. One should always tune their portfolio to reflect one's actual beliefs about what is most likely to happen. If you cannot allay your concerns with evidence that is convincing to you (regardless of what others think), it may be a signal to adjust your investments to the point where you feel the risk is acceptable.

    There's no need to invest with fear. I think most people here (not pretending to speak for them, just a guess) are comfortable enough with the long term future of Tesla that the size of their investments still lets them sleep at night. That's the case for me, anyway.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    In my mind, I think sales per store will decrease from initial levels until a lower steady state level. However, this will be offset by steady geographic expansion (they have a fairly small footprint in most of the world right now) until Gen 3 is ready. Definitely a concern if sales suddenly 'drop off' in a particular market, as seen by the attention to NA demand pre-earnings. Fortunately, most recent signs look okay for now with NA demand increasing 10% QoQ.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    GP, I listened to webcast and the message that came across to me from listening was very different to the message that comes across when I read your post about that call. I trust my interpretation.
    It seems that you have concerns about the future demand. Future demand evaluations are inherently speculative by anyone who is not clairvoyant, including Tesla CEO. I personally have no concerns about the demand. My position on demand is based more on my evaluation of the car differentiation from ice cars rather than on someone else's statements on how sales are going in a particular shop.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thank you for providing your Tesla history. I see that you live in California. That's where Tesla cars are made and the lion's share of their owners live. Indeed, in California the interest for first time Model S buyers could be plateauing. It will be some years before they'll need replacements. Many Californians with sufficient means are likely waiting for the Model X. Of course many more are undoubtedly waiting for Gen III.

    The company does not advertise. The virtues of its cars are spread by word of mouth. It takes a while for that to radiate out of California. Since the company is production constrained, there really is no hurry. Meanwhile here in Chicagoland, most folks are either unaware or vaguely aware of the company and its cars. Once production ramps up and the company starts advertising, look for talk of orders plateauing in America to be forgotten.

    China has four times the population of the US, so not nearly as large a percentage of Tesla buyers would me needed to match US buyers. Regarding people who live in apartments anywhere in the world: as electric vehicles become the norm, expect all public and apartment building garages to provide charging outlets.

    You understandably present some concerns and "what ifs". That's what makes a market. It's concerns that can keep a stock price lower than is warranted until it becomes clearer that they will be alleviated. Some people cannot see the forest due to blockage by the trees. In Tesla's case, it's those who focus on quarterly fundamentals rather than long term prospects. The concern should not be about a recent quarter's numbers, but about the potentials for Model X, Gen III and the Gigafactories.

    Strong shareholders have reasons to believe that Tesla Motors will one day dominate its industry. Short sellers apparently do not. Whenever their timing is nearly perfect, the shorts may make some money. Usually they don't. I see it as much more likely that those who keep holding TSLA shares for the longer term will be the ones eventually enjoying comfortable retirements.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    A poster on the Model X reservation thread mentioned how suddenly everyone in his circle of friends want a Tesla. The majority are apparently putting down a Model X reservation. Anyway it is completely anecdotal but I really feel like there will be a second wave of demand from people who realize Tesla as a company is not going anywhere and there are no major issues with the car and it is perfectly safe to buy one.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    To be fair, GP, I do not think this information is available so it is pointless to keep asking. TM does not report sales/deliveries by the day, week, month, country, region, state or store so no one on this forum can answer your question. I think you need to let that one go. Can you say that any particular store or every store with personal knowledge/certainty has had a drop in orders? Also, more people are becoming familiar with the model S through friends/family and are willing to order on line without a trip to a store...my opinion. So, I could make that a logical argument that a store will have less people 'buy/order' at a store.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Because no one else thinks that particular metric really matters. Tesla could start closing stores and that ratio would obviously increase. They could close all their stores and sales divided by stores would be infinite - what would your price target be then?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Mod Note: thread temporarily closed while I clean up.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Mod Note: sheesh people....how about agreeing to disagree sometimes? No need to attack individuals. 39 (!!!) posts went to snippiness, it wasn't easy to sort anything so the whole argument went there.

    Also: please watch your language! This is a family friendly forum.

    Thread will open again in a few seconds.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I apologize for losing my cool. This board's character was always better than that, and my comment made it worse. Won't happen again.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agreed. This isn't something that can be easily proven or disproven given available data.

    It could easily be said that California is having a decline in sales due to saturation, but a couple stores aren't indicative of the company as a whole. However it could be an interesting investigation as to a POSSIBLE saturation point that we could reach in the nation.

    Cars sold person (California) * total people per state.

    It would only be true until Tesla starts marketing. But still something fun to wonder about.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks for your calm reply Curt

    Of the American people who would be inclined to purchase a $100k All Electric Vehicle what percentage do you think are unaware of Tesla?

    I'm confused about how large the market would be for a $100k All EV in China. Everybody talks about all the wealthy people in China but when I research it I find info like this, which says the US has over 4 times as many millionaires as China:
    24/7 Wall St.: Countries with the most millionaires
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Mod Note: one more post, and that responding to it, went to snippiness.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    In my experience, until one becomes aware of Tesla, one is very unlikely to be inclined to purchase a $100k electric vehicle at all. After the awareness comes the inclination.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I used the last dip down to the 170's to get in on some J16 leaps. I didn't execute the order the way I wanted to and think I could have got a better price, but got in on the J16 300 leaps for a little shy of $15.

    That and I bought a Model S! Demand looking pretty strong from where I'm sitting.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Why do so many people quote it as a 100k car?
    I got the 60kw with several options for 75k all in after taxes and the 7.5k rebate.

    #1 - I suspect perhaps twice as many people can afford a 75k as compared to a 100k car
    *#2 - people realize that this car pays a 2k dividend per year in gas savings alone, not counting other service costs savings as the car gets older...like an increasing dividend over time

    *avg American spends 3k per year on gas
    http://abcnews.go.com/Business/real-money-save-money-on-your-daily-commute/blogEntry?id=19325852&ref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F
    Worst case is the electricity costs to fill up at home are 1/3 as much as gas

    - - - Updated - - -

    my coworker just got his S delivered this weekend and my neighbor yesterday was asking me about it and says he is going to order one now
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Because they're trying to discredit the company and make its product offerings look less attractive/impressive, of course.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    To be fair, ASP's are in the 100k range. But yes, when an author wants to be more accurate, they usually say the starting price too.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, the FUD is really bad with TSLA...makes me realize we have a real winner here long term...if their ASP was only 75k their margins wouldn't be quite as good and we'd be hearing it for not having good enough margins...it's very impressive that so many people buying Tesla's are maxing out options bringing ASP to over 100k but as you said authors and Bears are now trying to say that is a weakness by saying "how many people out there will buy a 100k car?"
    damned if you do and damned if you don't
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If you and may others get the 75k version, how are we ever up above 100k in ASP? Maybe I should start with a different question- what's the most that someone could pay for a model S with all the options?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    About 130k
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    FYI,
    Another guy I know got the 60kw version with only the tech option and paid about 65k all in
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    See the Cory Johnson thread and watch his absurd video. Calling the car a 'millioinaire's car' is backhanded put down, implicitly and explicitly indicating that it is only a niche car.

    My neighbors are pretty excited about my purchase. I haven't even got the car, but they have already told me how excited *they* are to see my car and test drive it.

    I see tons of cars in the 40 to 70 thousand range near where I live. I see a large portion of those people being Tesla customers once they see the light. Many can afford a car that's 70 to 90, but choose not to spend that much. The addressable market is still huge.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    this
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There is a point here. I also have a 60kwh and paid $75k. But what does it say about today's Tesla buyers that they are all buying in the $110k range? Why aren't there more lower end buyers? It's been a year so it shouldn't be all rich early adopters anymore right?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Two answers I suspect:
    1)I think a lot of people who would normally buy a 60-70k car start looking into the S and end up spending 80-90k to get the 85 instead of a 60
    2)there are a lot of wealthier people now buying a loaded P85+ for 130k which Tesla prioritizes to have a 4-6 week wait and so there is more demand for this more expensive version due to the lower wait and fast shipping times equals more of them getting delivered vs. a 60kw which has a 2-3 month wait time.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The second point makes sense to me. The first not as much. Some people, like me, have a budget and have to wait.

    But even then, you will eventually run out of people who can spend $110k+ on a car. The fact is that the 60kwh is an amazing deal for the price and the market for that price range is a lot bigger.

    I think that lower ASPs would tell me that Tesla is starting to go mass market or do we have wait until GenIII?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    thats true what you say, however, re: point #1, many people who could afford a 100k car might normally look for a 40-60k new ICE car and will not even consider learning about a Tesla or much less its cost savings benefits because they know it's starting price is out of the range and more than what they are comfortable with spending on a new car...if they did look at the S seriously then they could easily justify spending more than what they would for a new ICE car (65-75k instead of 60k max) for the 60kw S.

    in the same vain...many people who could afford a 100k+ car but are only comfortable spending 60-70k max on a new car will look at the S and end up spending more than they would have and spend 70-90k for an 85kw version with a few options.

    its like...if I wanted to go to a nice fancy dinner with my wife, I know $200 is the max I'm comfortable spending although I could afford a much more expensive dinner if I wanted...I just do not want to pay more than $200 for a dinner so I won't even look at restaurants in the $300-$500 range. Even if there was a magical restaurant out there that gave me steak making me live longer I would likely not know about it because I wouldn't even look at those more expensive restaurants.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    GP: It's not necessary to be a millionare before buying premium luxury cars. How do you explain Chinese consumes 50% of Mercedes S class production? Note S class (price range 850K Yuan -- 2.8M Yuan) is much more expensive than model S (price range 750K Yuan -- 1.1 M Yuan) in China.This same story might easily happen on Model S. Also keep in mind, Chinese government is the most pro-EV government in the world, so it's not surprise to see Shanghai municipal government gave free licese late to imported EV the same day when Elon arrived Shanghai. The senior officer (Ministers) hinted to Elon that lowering tariff for imported EV is under consideration.

    Here is the link of half Mercedes S class sales go for China : http://auto.gasgoo.com/News/2013/05/17075146514660213721447.shtml
    It's in Chinese though, but you can use google translator.

    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It doesn't matter. The buying power is determined not only by wealth but also the desire. Mercedes S class alone sell ~30K in China annually, BMW 7 series sell ~26K, Audi A8 sell ~12K, the China market is much more than Tesla can supply before GenIII come online.

    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Digest this case study please. I am not wealthy. I paid $65,000 for my Model S and with the federal tax credit I paid a net of about $57,500. I have a sufficient number of solar panels on my roof so that I need buy no electricity to charge my Model S, and I commute 90 miles each weekday in the car. I plan to keep the car 8 years, at least. I laugh at the thought of ever going back to an ICE-age vehicle (borrowing term from Curt). Not only is this car safe and kick-ass enjoyable, it will end up being as affordable as an average Icemobile over the long run. Granted, the 40KWH versions are no longer available, but buying a 60KWH version isn't all that more expensive. I am not alone as there are many others who will also discover the value of owning such a car.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    As long as Tesla has enough new areas to upen up sales to (China/UK/Australia/Japan/Russia/...) demand is not an issue. But GravityPull is asking a legitimate question about what happens after that time and before gen III comes online. Another legitimate question is why we are seeing so little signs of being production constrained in existing markets. Right now in the Dutch delivery thread we have customers ordering and seeing their cars go in production a mere 6 weeks later. Shipping and final assembly delays in Tilburg add more to the waiting time than factory production.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Tesla is production constrained globally not in every national market.

    Highly optioned cars like Performance Plus get put to the front of the line while base models get put to the back.

    It is not first ordered first delivered policy. Sometimes, celebrities and powerful influential people get their cars first. I know, life is not fair.

    German sales and demand have been disappointing. I thought solar power loving Spain would be a rather large market, Spanish 1%ers can still afford a Model S despite Spain's macro economic problems. There are no Tesla stores in Spain yet but I take it Tesla does not see strong demand there.

    Bottom line is Tesla can max production given the number of battery cells Panasonic delivers and the US, Norway, and China would buy them all before they are even made. And that looks like to continue upto and past Gen3 introduction. But I am not clairvoyant and neither is Elon or anybody else. We are just making guesstimates based on available information.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Gravitypull also claims elon is a problem holding tesla back. Not devoting enough time to the company by not devoting enough time to the development people. Like there would be a tesla now without him. How can you give his comments legitimacy
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Schonelucht, once Tesla has a global network established in reasonably-promising markets the supercharger networks will have matured in North America, Europe, and in parts of China. The whole dynamics of selling electric cars changes once a suitable supercharger network is in place. The electric car is now a practical vehicle for not only local driving but also for cross-continent drives. Make electric cars practical and the market expands immensely.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Mod Note: more posts went to snippiness. Zero tolerance policy is in effect now.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    An S85 from finalize to delivery in not even 3 months (remember 4-6 weeks for shipping and final assembly)? The most forward date currently reported is end of august/september.

    That would mean that Tesla isn't production constrained but rather that demand isn't there (yet).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If Q2 production, as reported, is already sold out that, by definition, is production constrained. There may be towns, cities, counties, states, providences, parts of countries or parts of continents that have no demand, less demand, etc. but since TM does not even publish overall daily, weekly or monthly reservation numbers or delivery numbers it is all speculative. The only thing TM has officially said is Q2 is already sold out.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Tesla Tuesday today?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What does Tesla Tuesday mean nowadays? Up or down?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't feel like looking for the thread. I'm just going to assume down though. It seems like yesterday though. Down in the morning, up as we move later in the day though. We just need Monica to chip in today.
    �
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