Thứ Năm, 27 tháng 10, 2016

Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements part 28

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    They were wrong because they thought the Fed was really tapering. Except a small European country (Belgium, really the ECB) has picked up the slack.

    Nervous Investors Move To Bonds Just Like Belgium? | Seeking Alpha

    I'd like to see what the market does with a real, non-manipulated bond market first.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    not gonna happen- bonds ARE the manipulation and the issue of it; that's interesting ECB picking up that slack- a little different take, but I wouldn't doubt they are working in tandem with the Fed. I think that's the 'permanent' world for a long time now. Add China buying to that mix and the world really has coupled now. That partially why I just don't see the bear case currently - maybe later, due to China debt implosion (not likely with some of their current moves- but always possible). Not saying something couldn't always drive it- but currently the bet seems to be against it given the facts we have to work with
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I added to my June 27 calls today and opened a 210 June6 call position as well. Bought during early morning dip. I am doing so based solely on the June 3 annual meeting leading to at least a small positive catalyst. While my LEAPS (Jan 15/16) have stopped bleeding I am hoping just to get back to even with them in the next couple months. The only other option I have in TSLA is Sept 220s/240s.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think we'll stay range-bound until DaveT starts selling iron condors again. Isn't that what precipitated the rise to 265? Or was it one to 230?

    Anyway...DaveT....how bout them condors?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Anyone selling covered calls to expire tomorrow? Only possible negative of that plan is I see would be people buying in anticipation for the shareholder meeting next week. 215s look like good risk reward at this point though. They were looking real good at open when TSLA was green.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I've sold some 210s two weeks ago (they were $15 out at the time.) Cutting it very close right now.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You could probably close those out right now for some really good profit? May not be worth holding onto for one more day, or maybe it would, haha.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That's the thing, though, there wouldn't be any profit because 2 weeks ago implied volatility was insanely low (for TSLA), so I didn't get much premium for them. Now they're at the money and they're just a bit higher than what I got. I was banking on a drop somewhere on the way to today and that didn't happen, so now I'm taking my chances.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I wish I had pulled the trigger when they were being bought for over 1.00 each. now they have a bid at $.45. I could've closed out the position now and made a nice penny. It could've gone the other way too, though...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
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    guest
    3.5 million shares? I think that is the lowest volume in at least a year.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This feels strange. NFLX and AAPL are going through the roof and TSLA has been floundering at the start line. Why is it that those two react to good news, but nothing happens to TSLA? Mostly venting here, but I feel like we're in a rut relative to some of the other big names. I know you can't make a direct comparison, but it's still frustrating.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If you start at 3 weeks ago, we're up 30 points. Of course, the drop to 180 was really unfounded to begin with, but 210 is not a poor price right now. I'm feeling pretty good. Of course we'd all love to be breaking ATHs every day, but that will come in time. We just did that a month or two ago.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Also lowest end of day price change I can remember seeing. I've only been following it since Jan. 2012 though.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think everyone is waiting on the sidelines for Gigafactory developments/Partnerships. Elon has been purposely tight-lipped. As these developments unfold the stock will move dramatically.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good article, except for the last part where he starts ridiculing S&P for saying that bondholders would only get 30-50% in case of default, because TSLA's market cap is so high right now. I honestly don't think that Forbes should publish such bad financial journalism.

    Could have been a great article, but instead the author is making a fool of himself.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So I might play some weeklies for the shareholders meeting. It would appear there is little or no premium on the event. There is some chance that Elon might make a comment related to demand. There have been many negative articles related to demand. The event is in the middle of the day so I don't even have to hold the weeklies overnight. I can buy them right before the meeting and sell them right afterwards if nothing particularly exciting happens.

    With a strong rally leading up to the meeting, however, I probably won't buy anything new. I feel like a recent rally sometimes leads to profit taking which makes a weeklies play more risky.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    Sounds like a good gamble. :) What strike price were u thinking of?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Whatever is ATM 10 minutes before the meeting. Maybe.. Or maybe $10 OTM.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looks like you are going to win (if you held on this whole time). This morning was a nail biter, I bet. I sold some $215s yesterday only to regret it this morning but looks like I got lucky, too.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I bought them back earlier today at $0.17 per share. Didn't want to risk a last minute spike. I made a few pennies and managed to avoid the steamroller.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Smart move. Glad to hear it wasn't a losing trade even though it didn't turn out as you hoped.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No, it turned out just as I'd hoped. I had sold them for $1.28 and left only $0.17 on the table.

    Edit for full disclosure: I then went long the same number of contracts, again at 210, this time hoping for a spike :) A lottery ticket that left my gains at $1.00 per share. I'm happy.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ah, that's more than just pennies :) good job on the trade!!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    $10 OTM will give you more leverage...of course, at more risk.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm considering doing the same. I like ~$10 OTM because it usually costs somewhere close to a dollar for weeklies. So you can get a few contracts for a 3-digit amount of money, which is nice.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I did a spreadsheet analysis and found that 2% OTM on weeklies provided the optimum return over 26 weeks if there is no trend in TSLA. If there is an upward trend, long term options give better results. (But don't take my word for it, as I'm a hack)

    I have been averse to weeklies because I don't like seeing my money disappearing over random events. If I look at it as a strategy to be repeated weekly, it feels more like relying on the probabilities to come out ahead in the end. Unless there is some goofy action Monday morning, I think I will try starting my 2% OTM strategy then.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I reserve weekly options for exactly things like next week - potential major positive catalysts with no expectation (there low IV unlike ERs). The Detroit auto show was the perfect example where I achieved a 10-bagger in one day. Even if I had lost everything I had put in, it was worth the risk. I don't know if there will be any catalysts at all next week, but I think the odds are greater than 10-20% so I am willing to take the chance to potentially make a 5-10 bagger. I bought some calls before close today in case things go up Monday. If not, then I will add more before the shareholder's meeting (probably 5-10% OTM) and sell after for probably minimal loss if nothing happens.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is the strategy I am employing as well. Over the last few days I have 'tried' to dollar cost average some June 6 210s. If we have further drop Monday I may add a couple more OR if flat or a slight rise some 215s. It certainly does NOT feel like the auto show where I was very sure we would see a spike (I was amazed at the size of the spike!) but I think we have a better than even chance of having positive news come out of the annual meeting. Of course, a 'macro' event could occur in the US or Globally that wrecks that plan.......I think I recall some European economic news is to come out on next Friday so if we get a nice rise Tues/Weds I will probably close the position and not take a chance of a general market dip late in the week.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Pretty much the same here. I bought a 215 today and two 225's as a lottery ticket.

    What time is the call? I might be sitting in the service center when it happens. If it turns out good I'll go buy them a case of beer. And tell them to thank their boss. :D

    PS: I hope I have to buy a case of beer on Monday.

    Updated: (Oh shoot, it's Tuesday, never mind. )
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nothing wrong with Monday's beer. :tongue:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sure win strategy, that beer, Monday or Tuesday:biggrin:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Funny I am sort of happy seeing TSLA down a little if I am going to play the weeklies tomorrow. I figure there is a higher chance of an upward movement even with no news. If we end up rallying up towards $220 prior to the meeting I probably won't buy anything at all.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I bought on the dip this AM...not at the bottom probably....some more 210s June6 in the 'hope' that we might see a jump.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This to me is awesome, buys me some time to make more money to send it into my account.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well I doubt anything will happen tomorrow, but I got some June 215s at 93 cents just in case.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I didn't wait until the meeting I picked some up right before the close today. If we are down again tomorrow I'll pick a few more up as the meeting starts and will probably close everything out by the end of the day even if I'm down a few dollars. Of course if I get lucky and they double by tomorrow morning I'll sell half.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Out of curiosity, what are people expecting to find out tomorrow that could cause a big jump? Do big firms actually sit in on these meetings and make buying decisions on the fly? Maybe I'm naive, but I just can't picture a room full of people with their phones out and fingers hovering over the "Buy" button hanging off Elon's every word.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Who knows with Elon/Tesla? They have been known to let out important news at unexpected times (Detroit auto show for example). I think most people here are just taking a chance that IF something comes out, then they have some short-term calls on board to leverage a nice profit. It is easier this week than an ER week because the IV is low and won't suddenly drop after the meeting tomorrow so there won't be any significant loss in the value of the calls if the stock trades sideways tomorrow. If nothing comes out, then the calls can be traded back in for minimal loss. My expectation of some kind of news that could bump up the stock to be about a 25% chance. That is easily worth the risk for a potential multi-bagger with minimal risk.

    As an aside, how does drivel like this (Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA): Why The Stock Is Questionable | ETF DAILY NEWS) continue to get published? Every main point in this article is completely and easily proven false. I guess the good news is that as long as people believe this junk, the stock will still have lots of room to go up.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Shareholder annual meetings in most companies are dull, completely un-newsworthy. But Tesla isn't most companies....

    - - - Updated - - -

    To collect clicks and advertising revenue.
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    guest
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    guest
    �
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    guest
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    guest
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hi. Would someone be willing to explain to a complete novice what this lottery ticket type of weekly order(s) means? I get conceptually at the end of a week you think the stock price will be up to 215 or as a wilder gamble yet to 225 per share. How would that be described in plain english perhaps? I'm not asking for specific advice as much as hopefully less lingo or shorthand so that I can learn more and ultimately understand what you're talking about better.

    Thanks
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Short-term options react to changes in the price of their underlying stock in an exaggerated manner. For example, the price of the stock may rise 2%, and the corresponding weekly option may rise 100%. On the other hand, if the stock drops a few % (or doesn't move at all as the option expiration approaches), the option price will approach zero and ultimately expire worthless.

    That's extremely oversimplified, but hopefully it gives you an idea of what folks are talking about.

    In the example of the Detroit show, people who were Johnny-on-the-spot buying weeklies right after Jerome let the cat out of the bag were able to sell them for obscene gains later that day as the news sunk in and the price of TSLA jumped.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thank you. I got the lottery ticket analogy of either an obscene big winner or a worthless scap of paper depending on the events of the week when it expires. A pure gamble. Is there an online simulator or calculator or something you might recommend that I could play with to learn a little more and possibly model a 215 and 225 movement in TSLA scenario?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Of course to trade options you must first be a client of a stock brokerage that has approved you for an options account. Here is the tutorial from the Chicago Board Options Exchange where I took classes, participated in mock floor trading, and daily interviewed market makers: http://www.cboe.com/LearnCenter/Tutorials.aspx
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Honestly it is easier to just do it in your head.

    For example (hypotheticals), if the stock is 205 and you buy 1 weekly 215 call for $100 and the stock jumps up to 220, then the option will now be worth $900ish ($500 because 220-215 = 5 + $400ish for time value + IV). If the stock closes at $220 on Friday then that option would be worth $500. (Most people would sell it before close to avoid having to actually buy the 100 shares.) So your $100 investment got you $900 if you sell it right away, which is a 9 fold return (9-bagger).

    Now, same situation, but you buy the 205 call for $400 instead. The stock jumps to 220 - now it is worth $1,900 ($1,500 because 220-205 = 15 + $400 for time value + IV). So this time your $400 investment became $1,900, which is almost a 5-bagger.

    You can quickly make these calculations in your head looking at strike prices and contract costs, then estimating return based on different scenarios of what the stock moves to.

    If the stock stays flat, goes down, or only goes up a bit, then the 205 call will retain more value (less % loss); thus, it is safer to buy an at-the-money call but less potential for major return if the stock goes way up.

    I don't really see it as a lottery ticket because if nothing happens during the 2 hours meeting, I am planning to just sell all my calls afterwards for minimal loss (assuming it doesn't drop much in the meantime). Kind of low risk, potential high reward.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    To all TMC members attending the shareholder's meeting. Wish I was there, I know it will be fun. Ask meaningful questions as we will all benefit from the answers! Especially counting on Flux and DaveT to 'hog' the microphone:wink::biggrin:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just got to my seat, front row :smile:. I don't think I'll be asking questions but I hope to see some other TMCers on the mic as well.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I joined the few others in line for a lottery ticket and I got me some $215 weeklies. I'm hoping Elon announces a vertical take-off and landing option for the Model X.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Is the live stream not working for anyone else?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Would explain "Grasshopper Mode" in the maintenance screen. :)
    U0a8wjOh.jpg
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just started. I am in.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It loads, and then the connection is immediately dropped off..
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    working here
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    I second those thoughts.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well no special announcements I figure nothing special will come out in the questions so I sold my options back around the same price I bought them for.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am waiting. Hopefully someone asks a question that elicits info not already provided.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Is Elon going to open up Tesla's patents? Wow.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well I guess the weekly 215 plan didn't work...now to sell for a 50% loss or wait to see if the market digests "Gen 3 in late 2016" tomorrow....
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Or long term TM will be "one of the most valuable companies in the world".

    To be balanced, I am not sure of market's reaction to the remark about the patents. It looks that Elon contemplating something unconventional. It is probably something more complicated and nuanced than just opening them up, but I think that given that there was no explanation that Elon eluded to, he should not have said what he did...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think the market would react to the announcement, but maybe not to the theorizing, unless we start seeing headlines. Same with gen 3 2016, unless we see headlines about it, nobody will notice it.

    I'm not convinced the patent thing will be bad for Tesla on any time frame, because I think other EVs on the market does benefit Tesla, and can't really do any harm unless the demand drops below supply for Tesla, which doesn't seem like it would happen. The market may well consider it bad....or, maybe the market will consider it good. Or maybe the market won't understand it. Not sure which way everyone will go on this.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am content with the shareholder meeting, Elon and Tesla basically affirmed everything is on track and he seemed more confident than ever. However, I too played weeklies, 215's and 210's which are not looking so good right now and I almost closed the positions right before market close but I figured that tomorrow and the rest of the week there's a bigger chance of share price going up due to the market digesting what was said in the meeting (which I think is positive) but also because the markets and TSLA has been taking a beating for a few days now and there's a chance that it rebounds. Good luck to you all.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I had 200s, 205s and 215s going into the meeting. Sold half the 200s at 50% up. 215s not doing well but low cost/low loss (but a loss is still a loss). Not sure what will happen over the next two days but the positions are small so I will wait and see. But, whille the news was good and I am happy with it I was hoping for Elon to drop a bomb on a question or two or have the curtain open behind him to show the finished X or mock up of the 'E' (or whatever name they give it). :wink:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Is Apple seeing something approaching in the rearview mirror? They added TSLA as a default pick in their Stock widget on the new Mac OS X.

    Between Jennifer Aniston and this, TSLA at $700 is now inevitable.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If he's opening the patents, he is probably going to shift to OEM or open up some serious royalty cash flow to infuse more cash flow and will shift to OEM status. I was thinking about it the other day. It really wouldn't be hard for manufacturers to alter their cars to a Tesla power train. Take a 911 for example. You can reorganize the batteries and place the motor for the same weight distribution in a 911 body...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think Elon is looking to take a page from Nikola's book which would be a great tribute to the man. However, I hope Tesla Motors does not suffer the same fate as Tesla the man if it were to open up the patents.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I would hope he decides to build the whole skateboard out and let manufactures build up from there. let them have the skateboard with motor and batteries and the rest is up to them. Talk about unlimited demand .... :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow, the patent remark made a really big splash. It made the front page on USA Today.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Elon may well have floated a glimpse of what he is thinking to see public reaction to what he is considering. Leaving it for the public to speculate what the idea may be a form of crowd sourcing thinking out of the box and gaging public reaction to a wide range of possible courses of action (and a source of amusement to those inside Tesla). Perhaps a bit like the hyperloop buildup.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Would it be cool to see all the EVs have "Telsa Inside" logo? :biggrin:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    TSLA spiking over $206 on high volume. News? Didn't see any...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    i bought 13 shares, must've tipped it over into the green
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, to almost complete the story: Sold the 215s at a loss and the 205s broke even. Still holding the remaining 200s as they are 'green'. So, basically with all the buying and selling hoping for a 'pop' from the annual meeting I have broken even.....:wink:. Lots of work for no gain. Will see how the remaining 200s do...hopefully the European macro news tomorrow will not kill them.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think we r gonna retest the $178 lows .
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Then why buy the 13 shares you just purchased?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That was a scalp, <60min hold time. I think lower low is coming within weeks
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not sure how much money someone can make from 13 shares in less than an hour, especially on a flat day. When the short trolls come out that has historically been a pretty good time to buy. Wish I would have gotten more when we were being warned about falling knives in the 180s.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I can't afford more shares. Folks on this forum are trying to go from $5k to $1m... Gotta start from somewhere.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Oh, you wanted to make money? Here's what you do: stop shorting, hold your shares long, and check back in a year. Can't imagine how anyone could make a profit paying the transaction fees on a 13 share scalp when the stock is only moving 0.5%.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    i'm not against going long. I said on this forum that we will test $170s when tsla was in $240s-250s, i also said retest $200 when tsla was down in $180s, and I said $200s will be resistance going forward....

    don't focus on my share count (i may have leftout a few 0s)... it's a public forum, i see no need to brag about share count.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I recall your prediction in November when the stock was $150. Everyone else was standing like a deer in headlights after the fall from $194, but you said it would fall to $120... you were pretty much bang on. I bought about half of what I've got at $117.50. So you have some props :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    U recalled wrong. I said, at the time, $200 retest 1st, then resistance & downward going forward,
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    To be fair, depending on the brokerage account and packaging he could be paying as low as $0.01 per share commission, so you can make a profit on some pretty small moves at that level, of course on 13 shares a small move is probably not worth your time, but some people think differently...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    "I suspect we are gonna revisit the Goldman downgrade price around 120s" is what you said on November 5th, unless I am reading the forum page wrong.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yep, next time the short trolls come out, that will be my buy signal. Let's see, if you had held on to your 13,000 shares (that is a few zeroes, right?), multiplied by $5, that's $65,000 you missed out on by selling yesterday instead of holding.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Who do you think you are... Antonio Gracias? :cool:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Okay guys, lets keep TSLA at $209.50, so that my short covered calls can expire worthless today :)

    Then the rally can resume on Monday, so that I can sell new covered calls :wink:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Please, everyone, listen to this man.

    I assume you sold 210s expiring today? I went big and sold 210s for next week. Fat and juicy. I'm betting I'll have a chance to buy them back today and keep some of that juice for myself.

    I feel dirty for shorting, but as I said before, I'm a selfish bastard.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't consider that shorting. Selling covered calls is a brilliant strategy that tends to perform just as well as holding naked stock in up markets, but significantly outperforms in flat or down markets. It is a winning strategy, as long as you don't get caught selling calls right before a 20%-50% move. But even then, that loss will be more than offset over time with gains from selling covered calls.

    edit: yes, I sold the $210's expiring today for a little over $1/piece yesterday.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's not shorting, of course, in the sense that it doesn't involve selling anything that doesn't already exist. It's just the idea that, as soon as I sell the calls, I am putting dirty thoughts in my mind. I sold ATM calls, so whenever it goes higher, I am mumbling "you make me sick" at the TSLA ticker.

    I shudder.

    Anyway, usually I sell them $10-$15 out, but today I thought it wouldn't jump much from here. In the absence of any news we're floating with NASDAQ, and I'm expecting lower levels today, at least for a time, after the initial gap up due to the job report.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You don't have to be shorting stock to sell calls. Example: needed to replace cash in Ira to reflect a withdrawal and like to keep 30% cash in Ira. Didn't want to sell at 178 so I sold calls for 190. Knew they would be called away but got 5 dollar price so instead of sell those at 178, got 195. Yes it is less than I would have gotten if sold today instead but my decision at the time was to sell at 178 or sell the calls
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm not shorting stock, I am long stock and selling covered calls. The terms of my account don't allow me to sell naked calls (not that I would, anyway.)

    Good call(s) on your trade!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow, you really go tight with them. But who am I to judge, I learned about this technique from one of your posts, checked into it, and using it for the past three months. I tend to go much safer: sold 215 yesterday with expiration today. The premium is smaller, but I sell a lot of them... :smile:

    This week is my eleventh of doing this. Works like a charm, pays much more than my day job!

    Thank you, Sleepy!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So you must be holding a fair bit of shares or long dated calls to cover the short call position?

    I have been selling call spreads in TSLA for a while, essentially the same thing that you all are doing now. It's great when it works, but the time that it doesnt work and you dont close the short call, you are going to get hosed. I was targeting spreads for at least 10% upside to max downside risk and it worked for many trades and then you get the 1 or 2 that don't and its tough to stomach, especially when you are selling a lot of calls for low premium.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I hold both shares and September calls. Before I started doing this I've dropped more than a year worth of historical TSLA data into a spreadsheet and did analysis of typical price movements on Fridays. This of course does not guarantee anything, but gives a good idea on how to choose the strike for the calls being sold.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That's true, you don't want it to spike and not come back.

    As a data point, I started selling covered weeklies (once I sold calls expiring two weeks out) in mid April. I got called away only once. Compared to when I started, after adding it all up, my net gain expressed in total shares + total cash is about 5%. As far as I am concerned, that is a smashing success.

    I should add, though, that a large part of that gain can be explained by my first trade, when I sold calls before earnings. The premiums were very high due to insane volatility, and I got to keep most of it. If I take that out of the equation, my return on the strategy would be a bit over 1%.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It all depends on how many calls and what your risk tolerance is. The $210 calls I sold yesterday for $1.03 will yield me more than 2% in one day against my J16 $210 LEAPS. It all depends on how you deploy this strategy. Of course if TSLA finishes above $210, then I start rolling them forward.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am going for a lower return per trade, while trying to win consistently. I am targeting a .5% gain per week on average. In theory, if I manage that for 50 weeks in a row, that's a 25% gain per year, uncompounded. So far, I'm ahead of that target.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I usually don't run them that tight. This week was different since we had shareholders meeting and I was waiting for a pop on Tuesday or Wednesday. It didn't happen, so I sold on Thursday. Normally I would sell a $215 or $220 that is 1-2 weeks out if TSLA is around $205. But when there is short notice, as in only one day, then I might get a lot more aggressive. But it depends on a lot of factors, such as recent stock movement, market sentiment, macro data, macro mood, etc.

    And yes, you can make more money this way than at work. It doesn't really take a lot of shares or LEAPS to start earning nice income either. The problem is sticking to the strategy after it backfires on you once or twice. I have become pretty good at playing the "rolling game" though and it certainly is not for everyone.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I thought you meant 5% total gain or 1% after taking out that one week. If you are averaging 1% per week then that is huge.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I did the covered calls thing a few times before (1-2 months ago), but I am hesitant now because TSLA 'seems' to want to break out any day, like it is waiting for a major positive catalyst and will take off to 225 and beyond. I think 200 is a strong resistance point and have sold some naked 200 puts the last two weeks when it dipped to the 204/205 range. This is riskier because I don't have anything covering it but I just see the risk of a drop to 190 or lower as very low right now unless we get a negative catalyst of course or the market tanks. I wonder what will happen next week with the positive press coming out about the first UK/RHD cars being delivered. I kind of wish the stock was lower today to buy some ATM calls for next week, but will just wait and see.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    When is the official RHD date?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, that's what I meant. It's been 5 weeks since my first trade (I was wrong when I said mid-April; the first trade was on April 28). I managed 5% overall, which is an average of 1% per week. That, in turn, is twice what I was targeting.

    If I took that first trade out, I'd be behind.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was thinking about selling several days or little over a week ahead of expiration, but for now decided against it as obviously more risky strategy, requiring good understanding of the potential of stock movements. Key is, as always, to do your own analysis and pick tactic which fits personal level of comfort the best.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    the casino always wins in the long run...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, in this case, aren't we the casino? Time is on the option seller's side.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You can always sell a 1-2 week call option and then buy it back as soon as it loses x% of value; e.g. sell for $5 and buy back for $4 same day if you think that you can spot the daily peak. But I usually just sell and wait.

    It does take a a lot of work with research to deploy these strategies, so it is not for everyone.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Exactly!

    That is why I like selling weeklies instead of buying. Of course I buy weeklies too, but that is just my gambling nature making decisions (a lot more exciting and fun). Selling weeklies is my brain making decisions.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That's what I did today. I sold 210s at $5 and bought them back at $4.2. Then I sold 220 Jun13s at $1.1, and I'll sit on them for the next week.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This might belong in the newb thread, but how do you roll forward? There's no "roll" feature I can see in my brokerage's tools, so what is the manual buy/sell equivalent?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    How would you roll this trade forward? When I had short calls finish ITM I would simply buy them back just prior to close, taking the loss.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I use a combo aka spread aka diagonal spread or calendar spread (depending on strike prices), to roll my options forward. It all depends on what your brokerage calls it.

    You can always buy them back and sell new ones later if you think TSLA will go back up in the near future.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Most brokerages will list it as a Spread trade- having 2 legs. Make the first leg the Buy-To-Close and the second Sell-To-Open; you can perform the trade with a Net Debit Limit- would not recommend market - know what the net max difference is you want to pay and set the limit - The legs will execute together to limit the net debit. The 2nd leg can have both a time roll out or a strike or both from the first.
    �
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