Thứ Bảy, 29 tháng 10, 2016

TSLA Investor Discussions part 40

  • 1/1/2015
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    $39.32 If it cracks $40.00 this week It will run on a squeeze.

    There is a large buy offer at $38.50 of 20K and 32K shares offered at $40.00. Some big players taking positions.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    The open interest seems to confirm my suspicion that the shorts are mostly hedged positions. People shorting the stock, and going long $40 + calls. They could see 50-100% downside via stock and 500% + return with options. It's possible these hedges were done months ago when price was $27-30. Would explain the decline in short interest. Anyone that bought the 2014 Jan $30 made a killing and likely covered their shorts. The interest in the $55 Jan really helps this theory. I wonder what this means for a short squeeze? If this is right, it could mean the short squeeze won't happen. However, it does mean a steady continuous run to $55? could be in the picture.

    Think about it like this. Tesla was very heavily shorted from about $20. If you bought the Jan 2013 $30 call, you would have made (1000% +). (sadly I didn't)

    Remember, at that time bankruptcy was a possibility. Therefore, a person with a very bullish outlook that also wanted to use risk management strategies would also short the stock. Some of these folks may be waiting to realize gains on their calls. When they do, they will likely cover their shorts.

    This is not investing advice, just a theory.
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    ill be happy if we close over 39$ today. Maybe we see 41$ this week....
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    The article in Fortune, (How far can you go in a Tesla?), had an interesting blurb:

    Analysts would probably miss that altogether. They would see the entry for marketing that matches marketing costs for comparably capitalized companies and check it off as appropriate.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I was glad to see comment below in Tesla's blog today penned by George B. To me it indicates attention going towards ability to deliver more cars.

    "Our delivery process is also undergoing a number of improvements. We are making immediate changes to the logistics surrounding future deliveries and will provide clear communication between you and your Delivery Specialist throughout the process."

    In 5 minute video below, George basically says, 1) through software/adaptors the car will be able to work with other fast charge systems (names three large standards in North America, Europe, and Japan, 2) at very end his tone is pretty enthusiastic that "we just build more cars" if demand is beyond what they've expected.

    Tesla Sales VP George Blankenship talks living with an electric car. NewCarNews.TV Bob Giles - YouTube
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    This seems right as suddenly yesterday I got an IDS and though I don't have a VIN yet she collected info from me (drivers license, proof of insurance etc) and told me who would be delivering my car to me (and did confirm it would be flatbedded by Tesla and not a 3rd party truck). She has been very responsive as well, whereas my previous attempts to email people at Tesla took a few days to a week to be answered
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    We are certainly creeping up to that $39.95 all time high mark.
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    its exciting...

    lets see if we get to the new all time high....my guess for today is $39.64 :)
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    What's impressive is that TSLA is bucking the downward momentum of the overall market itself. That's surely a sign that there could be a real breakout on Monday with the earnings call. Hang on tight!
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    Its really exciting. I have been waiting years for this moment :) This earnings call will be pivotal even with short squeeze aside.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quick question. What do you all think the average selling price for Model S will be in 2013. I am using $80,000 in my financial model. Reasonable you think?
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  • 1/1/2015
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    IF you're trying to compute gross revenue for the next fiscal Qtr. report, don't forget to add the $7500 Tax Credit to the purchase price. That revenue is counted on TM's books. Personally I think 85-90K might be a better guess. Not many buying the 40kw battery + 5% price increase + some standard equipment in 2012 is now a buy up option. So... $80K is low... IMO.
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    Or, it could be that expectations are getting unrealistic and that despite a good quarter, the stock will drop.
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    Debbie Downer :) You could be right though...
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    Looks like "buy the rumor sell the news" to me.
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    Tough call!
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    I have no idea what to do... crap
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    Normally I would agree - but I think this particular report will be an exception due to the plethora doubt ending events rolled into one:
    Profitable production rates now achieved
    Reservation/Sales secure most of the remaining of this years profitable production rate (if not set it up for upside surprise)
    Positive cashflow on a quarterly basis going forward
    Plenty of unused cash on the balance sheet (we don't know this until the report)
    Quarterly loss will be now going in the positive direction (still a loss, but headed out of the red)

    If all these and some good forward projections occur, any sell off will be quickly snapped up; but I think it will power over $40 instead. Then slowly pull back from there mirroring upcoming market correction. That would be the time to add position IMO
    that's my guess!
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I don't know what you should do either. I'm going to raise a little bit more cash here in the mid $39s. That way whether we are up or down after the report, I can be happy about it.
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    I sold some at 39.50 and rebought at 39.40 10 minutes later. Cold feet. But made a few hundred bucks on the "trade" anyway. I couldn't bear to stay out. ;)
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    I got cold feet couple weeks back before CREE reported, totally missed out on their 30% stock price increase. As far as I'm concerned TSLA has more forward-looking positives to report than CREE did. Yeah I know the market macro is probably a bit different now, but I'm ALL IN... go TSLA :biggrin:
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    I think everything in kenliles list is basically known the past month, having been highly probable for a few months now. I suspect the runup has been the fact that Monday, facts will be released that will make the falsehood of the shorts FUD even more obvious. i.e. the stocks been going up because shorts and longs know the shorts will have to find new nonsense to broadcast about Tesla or move on (move on from their jeering, more so than move on as in massive covering).

    so as to the items in the list, I do think we've seen the corresponding rise in the stock, and a bit of an overswing high (don't get me wrong, I own the stock because I see the potential for $600 in 10-12 years).

    now, if Tesla gives some forward guidance, or some new fundamental information (i.e. developments in collaborations with Toyota or Mercedes) etc., well, I would expect the price to continue upward. modestly improved forward guidance (say a 25-30K production target for the year) likely will be shrugged off, but who knows, they may say something suggestive of more aggressive increases in sales targets. I think we may hear something about revamping of delivery process. that would certainly be a sign they are looking to up production with some umph.

    I am looking forward to the call more than the Super Bowl, I think it will be a lot of fun. When the company's developmental successes are made public is largely unpredictable, but the successes are achieved over months and years. this has been a fun run, dip or rise next week, I think we are in a fun marathon with this company :tongue:


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  • 1/1/2015
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    Closed at $39.48, highest closing price ever? (During the day, remained below the 52-week peak of $39.95, though).
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    I'm actually trying to determine that for the year along with net income IF elon's promise of a 25% gross margin is kept. Its just that the numbers are unbelievable. If what Elon is projecting for TSLA in 2013 comes true and the market values TSLA like a tech company (opposed to a car company) the upside on TSLA right now is ridiculous. Backing into a shareprice at P/E 300, my model puts the share price at ~$150. Crazy.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Yes, that's the highest closing price. The only time the stock was ever higher than $39.48 was during the day today (high of $39.68 today), and during the day on March 27th 2012 (high of $39.95).

    Source:
    TSLA Historical Prices | Tesla Motors, Inc. Stock - Yahoo! Finance
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    avatar I think the 25% is possible at some point in the future, perhaps within this year. When Elon sets a target he has a rare ability to hit it, even if some extra time is involved.

    as to $150 valuation. Crazy. companies are sometimes valued in a crazy manner. it was the facebook IPO in a way that got me into Tesla. I had an aunt asking if she should buy. I tried to get context on Facebook's valuation by comparing it to a tech company I knew a little about with to me more meaningful added value... Tesla. Tesla looked so crazily undervalued comparatively, I got in.

    I do think it's possible Tesla may enter a phase of the a "darling" stock people have a crush on, and close some of the gap with tech companies. I don't think quite to the $150 point now... but I think the stock may get some non-fundamental love in it's valuation.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Jean Luc, perhaps $80,000 is a little low with price increase, but I think there never will be a higher revenue mix in sales than what's been produced in the last six months. in my mind I stick with $80K... very likely to come up in Monday's QA.

    more importantly, I think you are double counting the tax incentive, if I understand what you mean by "add in." Telsa charges the prices on it's website, reports it as revenue on shipment, and if applicable the customer benefits from a tax credit when he/she files a federal return.

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  • 1/1/2015
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    It depends on what you mean by "the prices on it's website." Most of the prices have the $7500 already subtracted, and the actual amount you pay is higher. The base price for a model S is 59,900 before accounting for the tax rebate.

    I'd say the average perf is 108K before rebate (I imagine people getting the perf are loading it up).
    The average 85 is over 90K
    The average 60 is about 80K
    With a new base price of 60K, even the average 40 is going to be at least 65K

    I definitely expect 85's (perf + normal) to be more numerous that 40's + 60's, so I'd agree that an average of 80 is low.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    That seems high. Mine (before rebate) is $102k, and the only options I didn't get are the paint shield and jumpseats (I also got the "free" black paint...). Of course that's before the price increase, so maybe you were referring to after the price increase?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Does anyone know if the earnings report is scheduled to be before or after the market opens on Monday?
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I find it hard to believe the quarter will be as great as many of you are suggesting.

    I think they will have eaten into some of the money they raised in Oct. I think the quarter as whole was not cash flow positive. I think reservations spiked up, but the whole year's production was not sold out as of 12/31/12 when considering current drop-out rates. I think it's still costing Tesla more than they want to produce cars (look at all the due bill items and people they're bringing on board and need to train), and I think making cars for Europe and Asia this year will incur some additional costs both at the factory and with setting up Delivery/Service overseas. Let's also not forget the cost of setting up SuperChargers.

    I'm a huge Tesla bull, but let's get real, folks. The breathless optimism here is scaring me.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    gregincal, you are right the website has the price after tax credit in large numbers. poor choice of words on my part. my point was that adding tax credit to "purchase price" (words in original post) sounded like it could be misunderstood and lead to a double count of rebate.

    I see many valid points in Smorgasbord's post... including managing expectations some.
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    I'm inclined to agree with smorgs.
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    Yes. Thank you.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    FWIW, I sold half of my position today @$39.40. Given the volatility of the stock, I expect a re-entry point sometime later this month that will give me some upside on the pair of trades.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I bought some puts a few days ago as short term insurance. Basically will help me sleep at night and not fret over things so much. If it does tank after the earnings, then I use money made from puts towards buying more shares! If it goes up, it just eats a tiny bit into my profits, oh well.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I'm curious, how do we know if Tesla Motors has sold through all capacity for 2013? have they released any information about the reservation and cancellation rates so that we can make some kind of projection on the total number of back orders?
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  • 1/1/2015
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    avatar, if you want to dig into it they did talk about cancellation rates on last quarter's call. Seeking Alpha has a transcript of the call. my recollection is the cancel rate was 10-15%, and on the call, Tesla management expressed their expectation it would be lower in the future (as the wait list is comprised of people who made a reservation months ago rather than years ago).

    as you probably know right here on TMC is a thread where reservations are tallied. last I looked it suggested something like 21,000 net reservations, with a footnote explaining their calculation of net. I don't know if that number takes out from net reservations the 4,000 or so cars now delivered.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I believe it only nets out the announced shipments. If that's true, then we'd need to subtract last quarter shipment once announced, say 3000, so we'd be at 18000+ with 10 more months to add.



    I hope smorg and citizen are right as I would like a pullback to add, but if the report validates the list I posted, I see little chance it doesn't close above its all time high over $40. Might pull back after that if the market corrects. That's the way I see it
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  • 1/1/2015
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    This.

    And this, especially.

    Personally, I think Tesla has to have a few good quarters before we'll see a sustainable push. We might see some increases after the conference call, but on balance I'm expecting a pullback. There will be plenty of ammunition for the concern trolls to keep pushing stories about Tesla's terrible financials and inability to turn a profit.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    That I agree with. I see a Tuesday deserving of all time highs, assuming report of discussed items and minimal use of new cash. Then pullback over the coming weeks, but establishing a higher low, in the 33-36 range. It's fun to be part of this over the next 5-10 years
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    Yes, after price increase, because I thought we were talking about revenue going forward. Not only extra $2500 base, but the 21 inch wheels are no longer included.
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    It's been above $33 since some time in November. So I'd expect it to remain higher, if not significantly higher. It should become obvious that there have been significant steps forward, and not only for those who follow the forum chat. Of course, the stock market doesn't always make sense, so who knows.
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    new all time high!!! $40!!!
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    $40 is the new $39.95
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    Sorry to harp on this but have looked back and on oct 17 they had press release about earnings report in nov for 3rd qtr. there has NOT been a release about report on Monday. I do not believe we will hear results on Monday. If anyone has more information let me know. Market very much believes report on Monday will this be viewed as negative?
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  • 1/1/2015
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    all the financial outlets have 2/11 so in better darn well be on 2/11 (aka Monday). I agree with you that since there's a history of press releases about the upcoming earnings call, Mgmt should continue doing the press release announcement.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    The day isn't over yet, so there still might be. But why 'should' they? Can't they decide to change historically what they do? What difference does it make one way or another? Other than to alleviate ppl's conspiracy theory. And even if ppl is correct and it doesn't happen on Monday...so what? Monday? Tuesday? Next Thursday? It'll happen when it happens. The news isn't going to change based on the date of the call. The news is already history and anyone who's been following Tesla knows what's coming.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    conspiracy theory? Where did you get that from? I agree so what which day other than you need to know when to tune in. You need to chill and stop looking for buggy men. Your first name isn't Freddy is it?
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    It is pretty standard to have a press release officially announcing the date and time. The fact that they don't have one doesn't mean it isn't happening, but it is a little odd.
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    Do they? I just checked. Neither Morningstar or Bloomberg list Tesla on their earnings calendar for monday. Wall Street Journal has Feb 11th - Feb 18th (estimated). Nasdaq has Feb 13th (estimated based on previous years). Google finance doesn't list a date. MSN lists 2/11 - 2/18. In fact the only place I see Feb 11th listed is Yahoo (not exactly a beacon of financial advice).
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I think it's worth a moment to re-read Tesla's Q3 2012 shareholder letter.


    And with Q4 having about 10X the number of cars sold, Q4 revenue should make the $400-400 Million estimate they made. That's good.


    I'm guessing that Gross Margin for the quarter is different than Automotive Sales Gross Margin, as the former includes everything, not just Model S sales.


    Has anyone totalled up the capital expenditures for Q1, Q2, and Q3 to see what's left from $240M for Q4?


    Musk's tweet would indicate that they did that.

    Note that they had a DoE payment in Dec, and have another one coming in March.

    - - - Updated - - -

    If you want to talk conspiracy, then note that Petersen says Tesla is spending the time arguing with its auditors over not getting a "going concern" notice.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Google finance clearly lists 2/11/13 as the TSLA earnings release date. However I am now seeing conflicting information across the interwebs.

    Daily Finance shows it as 2/13 - Tesla Motors Quote Page (TSLA)

    Nasdaq has it at 2/13 - Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Earnings Report Date - NASDAQ.com

    I suppose of these three NASDAQ is the most trustworthy. So lets go with 2/13. :)
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    Last year it was February 15th. The press release seems a bit late in any case, but just as a matter of a day or two.
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    I'm laughing too hard to go back and quote you. Tx
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    I erased from the message do you live on elm street. Thought that would be over the top
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    You, over the top? Gosh, no. I could never imagine that. :rolleyes:
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    I'm showing an after hours drop of 44 cents to $38.80.

    Someone sold a bunch.
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    I think that happened several times recently, but the next day it often was up very soon. It takes very little volume to change the price after-hours.
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    There was strong support all day at $39.25.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Hello all, my first post on teslamotorsclub.com. Just a few thoughts on smorgasbord's 4Q2012 results concerns:


    "I think they will have eaten into some of the money they raised in Oct. "


    I assume you think this is bad because Elon represented the offering as a "just in case" thing. Still, even if used, that doesn't imply it was wasted or otherwise bad. If it's to finance more expansion to meet demand and generating more than put in, there's no problem.


    "I think the quarter as whole was not cash flow positive."


    Only a problem if you assume Elon's 04Dec2012 tweet of "narrowly cash flow positive last week" means everyone expects the entire quarter to be net cash flow positive. That's not what I inferred, but if everyone else did, yes this could be a disappointment.


    "I think reservations spiked up, but the whole year's production was not sold out as of 12/31/12 when considering current drop-out rates."


    I think the positive feedback loop:


    more Model S's get out in public-->more sales generated-->more out in public-->loop


    has not come anywhere near leveling off. Therefore reservations-drying-up scenarios are a very low risk.


    "I think it's still costing Tesla more than they want to produce cars (look at all the due bill items and people they're bringing on board and need to train), and I think making cars for Europe and Asia this year will incur some additional costs both at the factory and with setting up Delivery/Service overseas. "


    I assume you're worried about excessive, rather than "some additional" costs for Europe/Asia. I see no evidence the team aren't adjusting for the additional costs in overseas markets, as well as production costs--given Elon's stressing the priority of 25% gross margin.


    "Let's also not forget the cost of setting up SuperChargers."


    From Hybridcars.com interview 25Sep2012, Elon estimated $20-30 million for a charge station network of just under 100 installations. This is approx the gross margin on 1300 Model S's (1300 ~= 25M/(75k*0.25). Think of the Supercharger network cost as the gross margin from 6.7% of 2013 Model S sales (=1333/20000)


    "I'm a huge Tesla bull, but let's get real, folks. The breathless optimism here is scaring me."


    I would balance this off with the breathless negativity of 40.8% of the float being short as of 15Jan2013 (WallStreetJournal). Given the 15% rise since then (from 33.90 to 39.24 close 08Feb2013), there has probably been some short covering but nowhere near 100%. Further, I don't think there is much "breathless optimism." Compare the reasoned, fact based optimism I see on this forum and elsewhere, with the rampant misinformation/illogic/irrelevance-based short case. When Tesla makes it official they're making 400 cars/week, coupled with possible increased production and revenue targets, there is strong potential for big analyst target increases.


    Another consideration: Many seem to consider the 39.95/shr alltime intraday high as some sort of immutable barrier. Rather, this happens to be the peak fluctuation in the largely sentiment-driven world of pre-20k/yr Model S production. Once this production is officially verified, it's very likely this "barrier" disappears, being replaced with hard numbers: 20k+/year, $1.5 billion revenue estimates and P/E/growth ratios that give much higher than $40/shr targets.

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    Stainlesssteel, welcome to TMC. Excellent first post, great counter arguments!
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I sure hope you are right Stainless :) .... I recently sold about a third of my position to lock in some serious profits and be ready in case there is a big pull back since i got burned a few months ago.

    I read in an article that Tesla confirmed that they had not announced any earnings date but the article speculated it would still be soon. Sorry for not posting link.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Thanks for the reference, you probably meant the article at the following link, an interesting read:

    Tesla Unveils Supercharger Stations; Six Now in California - HybridCars.com

    Regarding the general analysis, I very much agree with you. Targets should increase in the near future, and a lot of skepticism about Tesla will bite the dust. Just not sure if this will happen already with the upcoming earnings report, but if not, then it will remain hard to predict that point in time. So one should be ready, as I see it.
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    Very confusing suspect it's wrong but wait for press release company
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  • 1/1/2015
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    When a company raises money "just in case" and then uses that money, you gotta wonder what happened that they have to dip into their safety fund.

    If they needed the money to expand Model S production up to the promised 400/week, then that's bad because they didn't plan it right. If they're expanding to start Model X production, then there's a concern they're spreading themselves too thinly. Finally, if they're using it now, then they don't have in case something does go bad - like a major recall, Federal government shutdown panic, 500 Model S's getting destroyed in a freak storm in Fremont, CA, etc.


    I think some are misinterpreting it to apply to the whole quarter. That's too optimistic.


    That's not the point. The point is that some here are talking as if the whole year is, in fact, sold out, when it isn't. That's too optimistic.


    I'm worried about both. Even if you believe Mushk's offhand comment about some isolated gross margin being already half of what they want, it's a hard road to double the profit margin while expanding into new markets with new facilities and new people. And, to do that in just a year?


    It's being treated as a marketing expense, and it makes reaching their profit margin goals that much harder.



    Scroll a bit more through this thread, where people are creating short-term models for $150 and even $200 stock prices.


    The anti-EV gibberish crowd is vocal, but too poor (JP, are you reading? :biggrin:) They're not the ones doing the big time shorting. There is serious money behind Tesla's shorts, and serious money is almost always from serious investors, not fringe bloggers grinding axes. There is much still that can go wrong.

    Also, every analyst covering the stock reads TMC. They know production for Q4 probably made the 2500 promise, but didn't exceed the 3000 top end. They know people love the cars. They know there's still some assembly line/supplier kinks to work out, and probably more new ones to come. They also know what selling in Europe and Asia will cost.

    What no-one knows is what post-2013 demand will be. I agree there's a positive feedback loop, but that won't go on forever. Right now Tesla is selling well by getting a decent number of existing sports sedan car buyers to switch, and by getting a surprising number of mid-level sedan buyers to spend double what they normally do on a car. But, those pools of people are not bottomless, and Model S's appeal, like all cars, does have a limit. Tesla was smart doing Model X when they did. I'm guessing Model S sales will peak later this year, but by then Model X prototypes will be shown (maybe another Oct factory tour?), and that will help keep Tesla's overall sales rising.

    But, there are real risks with Model X. For one, the price tag is going to shock many people. I predict an EPA consumption rating over 425Wh/mile due to weight and aerodynamics for Model X. And it could be as bad as a 20% efficiency hit from Model X, especially with snow tires. I think Tesla has to respond with a bigger battery pack for Model X, which pushes the ASP up even beyond Porsche Panamera territory. People may not spend $80K for an SUV that can't make it to their favorite skiing resort, and may not want to spend $120K when the Porsche is cheaper. And, I'm not even getting into the more sophisticated interior of the Porsche.

    Now, that's what I call Breathless Optimism. First, I think you're putting too much stock into "officially verified" as a stock catalyst. It's clear that the analysts read TMC and know how many cars were and are being made. That's why the price has risen 30% or so. Any further up movement will come from promises the team makes during the conference call.

    Second, P/E ratios for fiscal years are going to remain negative for the forseeable future. What do you think Tesla's profit will be for 2013? We all agree that Q1 and Q2 will not show a company profit, right? Q3 might break-even and Q4 may show a profit. So, overall, Tesla won't have a profitable year. That's an infinite P/E ratio. So, move out to 2014. Oh, now we've got Model X ramp-up costs, and then Gen-III development costs. If Tesla self-funds those, then there will be no company profits. If Tesla does additional capital raises, then existing stock is diluted. Either way, the metrics don't look good.

    So, let's catch our breath here and realize what we're investing in. Tesla won't be company profitable for a year while Obama is in office. The price isn't set by P/E ratios or other such investing metrics that Wall St. uses for profitable companies, but by future potential.

    Most importantly, this is a marathon, not a sprint.
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    I think that's really the most important thing to keep in mind here. I know that everyone needs to get happy according to their own plan but when I see all this "market timing" discussion going on here, I'm getting dizzy... I have to admit that I don't really believe in active trading but rather long-term investing. So as food for thought, read this little article on a cat beating investment professionals over at the Guardian:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2013/jan/13/investments-stock-picking

    Alright, enough seriousness for now - let's get back and speculate about Tesla numbers :smile:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So instead of a long wordy argument, I'd like to just open source my thought process. I hope we can have a respectful and data driven critique. Would love to hear folks thoughts on the below. I tried to boil down what 2013 *could* be like through a HIGHLY simplified model. Lets say we had a time machine and it is now December 2013. What could that look like?

    Just some assumptions up front:

    AverageSellingPrice = $80,000
    UnitsSold = 22,500
    Operating Expenses for 2013 (Extrapolated from 2012) = $420,000,000
    Gross Margin = 25%

    NumberOfOutstandingShares = 113,780,000

    From here we can arrive at the following for 2013:

    Revenue = $1.8 Billion
    Gross Profit (Margin * Revenue)= $450,000,000

    Scenario 1 (No change in market sentiment scenario): Market maintains share price of ~$40/share. For this to happen, P/E would have to be = ~150 or 50 times Ford's premium.
    Scenario 2 (short scenario): Market paying 10 times Ford's premium (P/E 3). TSLA projected P/E = 30. TSLA projected share price = $8/share. - This is in a sentence is the reason even people who believe the vision of TSLA are shorting it.
    Scenario 3 (Optimistic Long Scenario): Market values TSLA like a growth tech stock (P/E 300 - 600). TSLA share price at this market treatment = $80 - $150

    So here is what we come down to. How do you think the market will value TSLA at the end of 2013? Roughly like Ford? Roughly like Amazon? or somewhere in the middle. Place your bets gents.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I would agree with that, but we'll see whether it happened. They likely were cash flow negative for the quarter, but they would need to be negative by more than $109 million (cash on hand at end of third quarter) to have dipped into the $222 million follow on offering.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think your average selling price may be a little low. A quick poll on the FB Tesla Owners Group page (a very small sample of 52) shows 1 ordered 40kWh, 9 ordered 60kWh, 15 ordered 85kWh, 18 ordered 85 kWh Performance, and 9 ordered 85kWh Performance Signature.

    The single 40kWh barely counts and we can count the sigs as just Performance. So we have 9 60kWh, 15 85kWh, 26 85kWh Performance (dropped one P85 since we dropped the 40).

    60kWh starts at $63k
    85kWh starts at $73k
    P85kWh starts at $88k

    Let's assume $5k in options per car (probably low). That makes us at $68k, $78k and $93k.

    If the percentages hold up then we're at 18% 60kWh, 30% 85kWh and 52% P85kWh, that comes to $83,480 per car -- I think that's conservative though.

    So I guess your $80k wasn't far off, but I'd speculate that it's more like $85k+ average per car.


    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Elon promised that Tesla would get to a 25% gross margin in 2013, but it's not clear to me at all that he meant it would apply to the entire year.

    Right now I would guess that there is a 0% chance that Tesla is extracting that much margin from current production. There is just way too much evidence that they are taking a brute force, cost be damned approach to solving problems right now, and while it's necessary, that is emphatically not how you go about increasing your margins.

    I'd be pleasantly surprised if they manage to reach their margin goals in Q3 or Q4. But I really, really doubt they will achieve that for the entire year.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Given Tesla's potential growth in revenue (EV technology, infrastructure, Gen III), a PE even approaching 10 times Ford who has no such growth potential would get bought up in a heartbeat. If Tesla enters gen 3 in 3-4 years they would likely be selling in the millions per year producing a stock price of $1000 per share at PE in single digits. That level of possible growth is not even in the realm of possibility for any other major auto maker.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You're confusing gross margin with earnings. There are a lot of costs that are deducted from the gross margin to get to earnings, including e.g. debt service, corporate, unallocated facilities costs, R&D, marketing, and service.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The $450 million includes all that. Its a brought projection of all operating expenses.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Why are we even drawing comparisons to Ford and the like... You can't value these shares apples to apples. Quantitatively and qualitatively these shares differ. Granted, share prices have been making me nervous but it's only because I'm not used to seeing this kind of movement.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    kenliles, I'm in this stock for the same reason in as you, I see tremendous growth opportunity. that being said, I'm sorry to say, I expect it to be a slower ride. I think roughly 2025 Tesla may be at something like a million vehicles if all goes well. hey, it would be awesome if my 2025 projection is low, but I mean this kindly, if all goes well, the numbers 3 to 4 years out will build up to 100,000+, not millons.

    The 2025 potential in my mind would mean a stock price of something like $600 (in today's dollars... so I guess something more like $1000). so that's what draws my attention, the potential for such tremendous growth. at the same time, I remember when AOL and Netscape seemingly were leaders in the internet (I never analyzed them as stocks... I just remember them as market leaders to the casual observer). I'm not bringing these companies up as dot.com stocks, but real companies, with a seeming real edge on the competition. it's just real difficult to predict well into the future (and I don't discount you may have a more optimistic long term picture than I do proves to be more accurate). so I see the possible place the company may reach in 12 years as a point on the horizon... even if it never happens, I think our investment will do well, as long as we've got the vector of the company's movement right, if not the magnitude. I will say, I've never known a company with a helmsman I felt more likely to hit such a distant point on the horizon than Musk.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah I'd be more than satisfied even with your 2025 target. Agree about Musk, although I think he will be disappointed if it takes that long. He hopes to be on Mars by that time! You have a good point though, Gen III in 3-4 years won't start at millions, like take some years to get there. I'll split e difference with you and predict by 2020 they'll be at millions per year! Either way, at that growth rate the PE of e stock value won't be anywhere near Ford, GM etc. putting the per share price somewhere in the multi hundred area. Appreciate your views....
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I liked your Mars context there, and I hope you're a better forecaster of volume growth than I :smile:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm not sure about the value of specific financial terms here (like P/E ratio).

    It's pretty much a given that Tesla will re-invest most of the money it makes, in future products and growth.

    I think the interesting number is: How much money will they be able to put on the side, in order to make these future-oriented investments.

    If you subtract these investments as a negative, the bottom-line number will likely remain just a small positive value (or fluctuate around zero). I think.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    2013 earnings are largely irrelevant and should not be applied to calculate price of shares based on P/E. Just like 2012 lack of earnings dose not make TSLA shares worthless.

    What really relevant is year 2018. Or 2020. Will TM be able to pull 2 billion in earnings that year? If yes, then you can calculate price of shares in 5 years based on P/E 10. That is realistic scenario. Optimistic would be 4 billion earnings with P/E 20. Pessimistic would be half a billion earnings with P/E 3 or no earnings at all.

    BTW, analysts are not sure if TM would be able to pull earnings for 2013. Some predict small ones, other foresee slightly negative numbers. But once again, whatever actual earnings will be in 2013, you could not derive share price from that. Just like you could not derive share price from negative earnings of 2012 based on P/E(nonexistent one). But losses in 2012/2013 would not mean that $38 or $50 TSLA price is not justified.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think more than actual #s, the stock price will be driven momentum of sales and progress. If (stock) buyers think (car) buyers are going to embrace Tesla and buy their cars, it will drive the stock up.

    Of course really bad #s would kill momentum, but I don't see them reporting anything that bad. But, we'll find out soon enough...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    For people who keep comparing TSLA's P/E to AMZN:
    Amazon Q4 profits fall 45 percent.

    I think it's very reasonable to expect a higher P/E for TSLA than an established automaker which really has very little room to expand and can't increase margins without being mauled by its competitors. However, any capital intensive manufacturing business cannot be reasonably compared to tech stocks, because the cost of production is so much more of the total revenue than in a software driven business where the marginal cost is minimal.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Investors might consider that Elon has a goal of changing the world's transportation. He and key like minded investors might be perfectly happy to keep re re re investing back into the company with little profit for decades.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's a good point and generally true, and certainly true when looking at a software drive business;
    but not so much when the technology disrupts in a way to alter the manufacturing capital itself.

    Intel is an example. Certainly a capital intensive industry, but they used technology to drive that cost per u it way down and then leveraged it to become the standard used by the industry. Tesla may not achieve that level of success, but that's exactly what they are driving to become. Much of this because of the vision of Elon, to not only change the industry itself (even selling to his competitors as the standard), but his focus on actually changing the manufacturing capital structure, deploying manufacturing design technology within the product design cycle. A big Part of the 'gotcha' he's investing in changes how a car is manufactured and sold, producing misjudge nets by current industry investors about the level of capital required. Using today's technology , the Capital no longer represents the same Intensity to achieve scalable volumes. He's doing precisely the same with SpaceX. Brilliant really and a testament to Elon and the team he's building
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Model x reservations at 10 a day now! WOW
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Please always attach your source for posts like this :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm 85% out of my position right now, made a ton. Watching for reentry.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah looks like Friday was a big seller take profit day. Be interesting to see if that reverses on the report.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That's behind a pay wall.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's odd, because I don't subscribe to WSJ and I can see it fine...


    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I tried again, this time I can see it. Might have gotten a new dynamic IP address in between, as I needed to reconnect.

    - - - Updated - - -

    It says the report will come in the next few weeks, but probably just to be sufficiently vague. I'm also hoping for tomorrow.

    BTW, the article says Tesla needs to produce 400/week (which is about 20,000 per year) to break even. I haven't heard that number before, and I think it is actually 8,000 per year (in the context of Model S production), as Elon said in the last annual shareholder meeting. (Though it is not always clear what exactly the numbers refer to).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm either excited or worried about the Delivery buttons people are getting tonight.

    My reservation #13850 made in November and finalized on the first day I could, 1/11/13, Delivery button received 1/28, has a delivery window of Feb 28-March 14th for my P85.

    I saw someone else (hershey101) posted they got their (#18278) delivery button tonight. They Made their reservation on 1/14/13, Finalize button 2/4, Delivery button today 2/10, with a Delivery window of March 13-27.

    So their window overlaps mine, even though we are almost 5000 reservations apart.

    Does this mean there are a LOT of cancellations, or Tesla is pumping out cars at an enormous rate, or...??
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Difficult to tell. Sometimes they end up with a specific configuration already in production, but for some reason not to be delivered to the person having ordered it. Then they go ahead in the list until they find an exact match. Just one possibility.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    True, or some who don't finalize as quickly as others...

    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Currently they are not building any 40kW packs, red paint jobs or standard suspension cars. I expect there are some cancelations, but my guess is most of that is the options that are not available yet.
    We should find out more at the meeting.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    True. It's pretty awesome if they're pumping them out fast (and keeping the quality up). I'm assuming at the Q4 report they're going to talk about how many they've pushed out the door YTD too -- which I hope is a pretty staggering number. Sure seems like it based on the reservation #s they are getting up to.

    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ahh... I was just gonna post this (you beat me to it :))... I really hope that they can keep the quality of the cars up at this rate/there aren't a lot of cancellations otherwise I'm gonna look mighty foolish buying long term calls on the company...
    By the time the summer ends, I'm hoping that their stock will pay for my car (Capitalism at its finest :D)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Did anyone post this one from Friday? (I did a search but didn't see it)
    Forbes:
    Tesla Motors Cruises Into Earnings With Better Margins And Model S Sales
    ?
    "Tesla Motors
    is scheduled to announce its Q4 results on February 11."?


    http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2013/02/08/tesla-motors-cruises-into-earnings-with-better-margins-and-model-s-sales/

    - - - Updated - - -

    Also San Jose Mercury News from 2/8: "Other solar companies also fell, as did electric car maker Tesla, which declined 0.6 percent ahead of its earnings report scheduled for Monday."
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    As there is nothing posted on the Tesla Motors web site, I can only assume that is in error.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Usually earnings are telegraphed here...
    Tesla - Press Releases

    Of course I've only been watching for a year or so.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Investor Business Daily reported that it would be Monday morning. Confusing at best.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Considering the NASDAQ website states the earnings date is wednesday and not tomorrow, I suspect it is Wednesday at the earliest, next week at the latest. It seems a bit odd that they haven't made a statement regarding the discrepancy.
    Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Earnings Report Date - NASDAQ.com

    Without a press release from Tesla I'll consider any comment from secondary websites to be highly suspect.

    Tesla Motors' Model S Sales News Key In Q4 Earnings Report TSLA TM - Investors.com


    IBD claims they have heard directly from Tesla, though I'll only believe it when I see it. Maybe this is them trying to surprise the market? Can they release earnings if they haven't publicly announced a date?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I wonder if they held back at the last minute for the NYTimes story and its impact to run its course before the earnings call?!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Interesting thought. Although, I wonder what kind of impact the article will have - if any. The writer technically stated things that were already known, and other news sources seem to have held off on following the story. It is already known that cold weather impacts the range of the car. What negative things did the article say that would signify trouble ahead? I certainly didn't see anything.

    I wonder if they will make any mention of Model X reservations. They seem to be taking reservations at 10 per day. Considering the car won't be produced for over a year, that's fairly impressive.

    I can't imagine what bad things they could announce, unless for some reason the cancelation rate was really high. The only thing I could see happening is if it turns out a really high number of their reservation holders flaked out and decided to not buy after a test drive. I somehow don't see that as likely.

    Aren't they likely (At the minimum?) to announce that they have produced over 5k cars, delivered over 4000 and are operating at 20k production capacity? Would think VINs over 5k being issued would be confirmation of this?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I believe you are correct. 8K/year is breakeven and 20K/year gives them 25% gross margins.

    25K/year gives them $45/share stock price. :biggrin:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Let me start by saying I am long on tesla but they are aware of this confusion and have not clarified the report date. That is not forgivable. Question not professional. They don't need to respond to rumors or news stories but when it confuses investor base they can announce date. I e mailed investor relations 1 week ago in regards to confusion over report date still no response. Please don't tell me that position is too busy building cars to respond to legit questions even if its to state that no date is yet selected
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I always receive an email from Tesla announcing the earnings call, but I haven't received anything about the Q4 call. While I disagree with @ppl that Tesla should respond to rumors, it would have been helpful for them to formally announce the call date, thus setting any rumors to rest.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    the question is why they didnt announce the date. Is it today, wednesday, next week?? Nobody seems to know..
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Share falling now pre-trade. Rignt now (1,5 h before opening) down to $38.00 (-3,16%). However according to Nasdaq.com only something like 2000 stocks traded pre-market. I think it's the NY Times article... Been on the fence for a while now after taking profit at $35. Thinking about buying some pre-market or wait until market open for an even bigger drop???
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    depending on how much you are looking to add I might suggest picking up a few shares now and then if it keeps dropping when market opens you can add more the further it drops or if there is an announcement of some type that is good and the stock heads north you will have some shares to benefit from .... it seems with no announcement this morning the stock is looking to drop early but I know there are a lot of people who have taken profits looking to get back in (me included) so i dont see it dropping too much without any significant bad news
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I know conspiracy theories are more fun, but did anyone consider picking up the phone and calling investor relations?

    I'm sure they couldn't tell you when earnings will be announced ahead of an official press release, but they could confirm that it won't happen without a press release and tell you when to expect that.

    This is the kind of stuff they are there for.

    Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    so is there no press release today? did they just forget to announce :))
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree. First if it were today it could be after the close. But they did not miss date even if not today since they never scheduled it. You have to wonder if either there not aware of issue (not good for investor relations dept/guy) or there is some reason to keep secret which would make no sense what so ever.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I emailed a week ago telling them of confusion. No response. Maybe position empty or person asleep at the position
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    dsdsd.gif

    Could be a good oppurtunity to buy more shares today :)
    �
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