Thứ Bảy, 29 tháng 10, 2016

TSLA Investor Discussions part 39

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
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    while I can understand the reasoning re selling in anticipation of a pullback, I agree with Stealth... we all have different strategies. afterall we all have different time frames, financial situations, and assessments of the company.

    in fairness, I have dry powder anyway if the stock goes down... so I guess I'd be more tempted to sell a little if I didn't. but fundamentally, I wonder about them nailing the long term picture and maybe being 20X larger in 2025... I don't wonder too much whether I'll sorely miss $38.04 if the stock is at 36.13 soon.

    one last point... as to a couple of years worth of "wish I had sold at posts". I get that. but I also think the market, and the individual investor may be re-evaluating the company now or sometime in the next year or so... I'll spare you my long list of reasons, but with awareness, I think Tesla makes more sense as a stock the wide public falls in love with than Facebook, and look how irrationally high its stock price has been due to love from the public (and to me irrationally high even when it's price got cut in half after the IPO).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
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    I think Facebook, Tesla, and even Amazon are pretty similar in that they're all valued pretty damn high taking into consideration how big the company COULD become in the near future.

    I have some money on Facebook (was lucky to get in in the low 20's), and I feel very confident that that team will get it right if you give them time. Their reach is just incredible, and I think they can see some success with e-commerce.

    I feel very similarly to Tesla. My only main fear is that by the time Gen III is released, the competition may catch up somewhat. I put down a decent bit of money on Tesla over the last couple weeks, and I'm in it for the long haul. I guess it helps that I'm young and can take more risks. I have a lot of confidence Tesla won't crumble though. :biggrin:

    - - - Updated - - -

    Elon is legit; and he's determined.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
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    I'm relying on the "amazing magical drive train"[SUP]TM[/SUP] and the corresponding patents to counter that near-term threat. In the 5-10 years that it will take the big boys to "catch up", Tesla the brand and Tesla the mfr will be flying that much higher.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I would prefer company push the gen3 rather than model x through but hopefully they can do both. Who am I to tell them this, it's just that I see real transformation with that than the SUV model s.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Patience. They're already progressing at warp speed, never mind that they need Model X to help fund GenIII AND more importantly develop the company, its employee skill sets, its processes etc... If they rush GenIII they'll make a mistake. Let Tesla do what Tesla does in Tesla time at Tesla pace.

    The whole idea of Tesla was to push EVERYBODY, not to do it all themselves. It's an altruistic approach that has a far greater chance to succeed then a self-centered one.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    According to Google Finance, Tesla is up 64 cents in after hours trading.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Yup I see it at $38.67 after hours as of 5:56pm est

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  • 1/1/2015
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    Considering everything that has happened, we really should be seeing a new high sometime soon... :)

    Although there were delays of a few weeks, all major challenges, at this point, appear to have been taken nicely.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Up to $38.67 in after hours trading. Wear your seatbelts gents...its going to get interesting.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Is this interview tonight? I don't see anything about it on Bloomberg. Do you have a link that mentions it? Really wondering when he'll publish/ say something more about the Hyperloop :)

    Would be cool to hear him announce an expanding of the supercharge network or some additional details on the bluestar.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I ended up buying another 1000 at ~37ish, hoping that in the one year or so it'll take to get my rhd signature, I'll have made up the cost of it in shares LOL.

    bought another 1000 SCTY as well, so now I own 2000 of each. Lets see how we go :)
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  • 1/1/2015
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    i taped it on the dvr. I scanned the whole hour of Bloomberg West. He's not there. I guess he got "Matt Damon'd" (as in jimmy kimmel).

    - - - Updated - - -


    Anyone notice how during the last 45min before the market closed TSLA was completely stuck at exactly $38.00 for a long time? Someone was eating a ton of shares at $38. It's always amusing to me to see that happen.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Sorry. Saw it in news article but it didn't happen. Actually glad it didn't Why risk it now. Could get hatchet job like Cramer on solar city interview. He was there to talk about solar city and got ambushed by Cramer with tesla questions he refused to answer to keep discussion focused on solar city. Funny how microphone for solar city guy mysteriously totally quit leaving him totally out of interview
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Tempting prices but the short squeeze is just starting. Volumes up larger pricing moves. Less than 2 weeks to report. There are obviously fundamentals of company growth etc. however pre and immediately post report stock price will divorce itself from these parameters. The covering of the shorts will determine price next two weeks. If you look at ownership stats individuals own very small percentage of stock. Don't let shorts off easily. Remember these days, they don't come often enough to cash in prematurely. You have mostly believed in the company and are not day traders. These two weeks are your reward/bonus
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    Yawns* profit takers.
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    Good point.. 71% institutional owners. I'll bet that out of the remaining 29%, there are a higher than average % of individual investors who believe in Tesla quite a bit, and wouldn't sell their shares unless something REALLY bad happens. I can't help but think there is a very good possibility TSLA sees upward action coming up to earnings. 37% short float is nothing to sneeze at.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Has me thinking I should do something ridiculous like offer up my shares for the low low price of $100 - see if there are any takers :biggrin:
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  • 1/1/2015
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    What makes you think $100 is a high price? :)
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Actually 52% of float is short. (The nmber you quoted i believe is of total shares not available to trade shares). Netflix had only 18% of float short. I suspect we could see over 50 by time earnings come out which of course more relates to short need to cover rather than the fundamentals
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  • 1/1/2015
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    A little more info in here on the Elon-Boeing situation
    Of course any joint work announced would further escalate the stock, although perhaps not imminent , you just never know. As Elon says they use this in both Tesla and SpaceX and in SpaceX a much harsher use and requirement and weight reducing role. Could really be another addition to reputation hat feathers
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/29/boeing-tesla-idUSL1N0AY11R20130129
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I'm thinking Tesla's stock rise might burst when Q4 is announced. Despite Musk tweeting about "cash flow positive," even JP Morgan thinks their cash on hand at the end of Q4 will be half what is was the prior quarter. Are the people running up the price of TSLA aware that everyone knows they will probably report a loss of around 80 Million Dollars for Q4? If not, there could be some surprises.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Reuters reported recently that Elon Musk said he is hoping Tesla will have "a profitable quarter" this year (2013). I don't think anyone expects Tesla to post anything but a loss for Q4 of last year.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Everyone knows there will be loss. I think surprise would possibly include higher production rate and higher reservation number. I would hope he distances himself from Boeing would not want anyone assuming lithium ion batteries all bad. They probably wouldn't credit him with fix it would make Boeing look bad to have to get outside hehelp stock resilient today bounced back from some seriously negative ground. Hopefully sets up good day tomorrow
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  • 1/1/2015
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    People will think (and assume) whatever they are motivated to think (and assume), regardless of facts. I see no reason why companies shouldn't help each other, especially if there's an overlap of technology. I see even less reason why that would make a company look 'bad' for asking for, receiving, or accepting help. Would you rather Mr. Musk not extend Tesla and SpaceX help and see one of those planes crash? I've yet to ever get the impression that Mr. Musk does what he does, simply for or primarily, for the recognition, so I doubt he'd lose any sleep over not being officially given credit.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    The best way to distance yourself from anyone assuming L-ion are all bad, is to solve the problem with your solution. Think about what that would accomplish as a trust factor
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Correct me if Im wrong but wouldnt now be the best time to short the stock? They're nearing their 52-week high and they'll likely post lower than predicted numbers for Q4 2012.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I'm pretty confident they'll hit the low end of their predicted numbers and the fact that they are now at full production should really make investors confident. I expect staying even to a 5% to 10% increase on the day. We'll see though. I think it depends on the brokers response to the numbers and what they tell their investors to do.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    You can sell Jan 2015 $55 calls for $3.50 per share. So that's an effective sell price of $58.50. Calls at $100 are a little trickier to find buyers for.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Yep. Q4 was a transitional Quarter. Involved getting production up to 400/week (or more). Now that TM is showing that they deliver quality cars, the lingering questions become:

    1) What will be the demand ramp this year? TBD... I think demand and sales will certainly be more than 20k in 2013

    2) What's the longer term margin on the model S? 20% etc.

    High Demand and good Margin lead to quicker ebitda profits (later this year). Elon's already stated they achieved positive cash flow in Q4
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  • 1/1/2015
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    We'll see a big jump in the stock when Tesla officially announces they are producing more cars than 20K for 2013. The end of Q1 2013 for that announcement?
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Doubt it lol the market never reacts rationally. I'm just expecting a slow and steady climb
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I see where you are coming from, but you've made a rookie mistake in your logic: market price is a reflection of FUTURE earnings. This is an important distinction, if it weren't true TSLA would be worthless because the company doesn't make any money. A consequence of this fact is that the guidance given in the quarterly report is much more important than the report of the quarter passed. A slight miss on predicted Q4 numbers (which is unlikely at this point anyway) is not nearly as interesting to the market as the guidance that will be given for 2013. Many commenters have pointed out that news about increasing production beyond 20k units (which is looking very likely) would be far more interesting than news about how Q4 went, and they are right.

    Many a trader has been burned because they traded the quarterly report based on a thesis that they will beat/miss the quarter. Just look at Apple's last quarter. They beat the street, but got obliterated because the guidance was awful.

    All that said, it appears to me that the market is already pricing in a successful Q4 and an increase in production for 2013. I wouldn't expect us to get above $40 in the aftermath of the conference call unless there is something else put forward that the market has not foreseen.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    True story. I'm thinking the real thing that would make shares appreciate now is the shorts covering on a slow steady daily basis.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Tl0.de

    Hi everyone,
    i have been following the company for years and beliving is such a great company i have decided buy some stock (i am an european investor).
    To avoid double taxation i bought the tesla stock listed on the XETRA market with the TL0 ticker.
    a few days ago however my broker informed me that the stock has been delisted from that market.
    fro my research it seems instead like no major thing has happened to the stock itself. :cursing:
    can someone, maybe some other investor in the xetra market, please give me some color on that?
    thank you.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Wha!?!?!? You mean no short squeeze to make the price jump wildly high!? ;)
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  • 1/1/2015
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    So when it broke $38 I caved and sold all of my shares, regretted it immensely, and bought them all back today. I was able to pick up a few extra shares, but I think I'm going to just stick to my plan of riding the company till it picks up significantly more. :tongue:.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    And he gets very credible back-up from an EE professor at MIT

    "Musk's assessments of battery cells were confirmed by Donald Sadoway, a professor of electrical engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

    "I would have used the same words," says Sadoway. "I'm glad someone with such a big reputation put it on the line."

    "He's engineered [Tesla's battery] to prevent the domino effect, while Boeing evidently doesn't have that engineering," adds Sadoway."
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  • 1/1/2015
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    As predicted Boeing not interested in his assessment. Too much hubris good job though. Nice to see tesla designed battery packs in airplanes but could you trust them to install correctly and not tarnish tesla reputation
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Once again yesterday was one of those rare days when there actually more shorts than longs- amazing
    Interactive Charts
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Next time you "cave" just sell half of your shares or a third ... pick up more on the pull back and hold most of them so you are covered and dont "miss" the big upswing
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Well my initial plan was to play the swing game with the volatility and pick up more shares before the Model S launch and then hold for years and years. I just got antsy looking at all of the profits but I immediately regretted it. This time my mistake cost me nothing and actually increased my position by 1%, I won't dare dump any more unless it's a short squeeze.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I did exactly the same with 20% of my shares and bought it back at 37.50. Now I'm only holding on. I have no idea how far down it will go, but in the end I believe it will go way up, and I don't want to miss out. I don't even want to miss out 20%, and I don't think I know enough to make money on day trading.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I did the same, except I lost $1 per share on my trade. Some idiot posted on this forum that ELon was going to be interviewed by Bloomsberg and made me rush to buy my shares back before the closing bell. Turns out it was some made up phantom BS, Elon never had that interview. Whoever that person was SHAME ON YOU!
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Sound investment strategy...
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    I hope this is a joke
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  • 1/1/2015
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    youarethecaliflower ?!
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I've been reticent to sell on the recent highs mostly because I don't want to reset the clock on my shares. One set is just past the 1 year mark, the other hits the 1 year mark in May.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    The optimistic part of the market, surely. However, do you think all the remaining 26 million shorts had already planned it in? And that they were planning on something to happen later-on, in the first place?
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  • 1/1/2015
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    In case it isn't a joke..

    Your investment decisions are your own. No post on any forum is responsible for the financial impact of your investment choices.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    The market in aggregate is pricing it in. I'm sure some shorts will get caught with their pants down and some longs will have wanted more. On the whole, I think the market expects these things to happen and it is going to take an added something special to push us much past $40.

    Thinking that some set of good news is going to suddenly cause all the shorts to cover and that nobody is going to sell into that is just silly.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Wow. You need to reevaluate your trading strategies. You are going to get eaten alive doing stuff like that. I don't say that to be mean, I just want to convey the seriousness of a move like that. You are lucky to have only lost $1.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I like this phrase.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I don't think it will take that much to go past $40, though. We've already been above $38.50 three days ago, after all. Why shouldn't we go past $40 sometime in February?
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Sorry, auto-complete fail.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Just something to think about to avoid getting into panics like selling and buying based on a bloomberg interview. Ford is a roughly $50 billion dollar company. If TSLA can grow in the next 5 years to 25% of that market valuation - say $12.5 billion, with currently outstanding shares each share would be worth $110. Go long. I mean really long - not 1 week, not 1 day - go 5 years long. Buy and hold at every opportunity unless something catastrophic happens.Time your buys, not your sells with TSLA. Just my $0.02.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I agree, when I'm long, I'm long. I don't do short term trading. I did just sell some Adobe to buy my car (over 10 years, 1000% gain).
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  • 1/1/2015
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    That's my general plan from here on out. Thankfully my mistake ended up making me a little bit more, but I won't sell until it's over $100 now.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    me too- I'm in LEAPS J14 and the bid ask on all TSLA calls is too wide to trade in and out; I will sell the calls, but only to roll them over to J15. Keep enough of those options rolling for the next 5 years to track at 4000 shares or more.
    Then I use some straight stock shares to play the swings

    Worthless day today- ended up right back where we started
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Fellow Teslamotorians - A nice call out from Larry Page on TSLA in Wired:

    Googles Larry Page on Why Moon Shots Matter | Wired Business | Wired.com
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  • 1/1/2015
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    That just doesn't make sense to me. If you take profits at opportune times during those 5 years, and then use those profits to buy more at opportune times, you will crush anyone that just blindly held. I don't understand why everyone can agree that you should buy more shares of a stock you love when it is clearly undervalued, but have a hard time accepting that you should sell when the stock is clearly overvalued.

    It's the same thing.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Not really. An overvalued stock can stay overvalued or even get more overvalued. Or, the stock can catch up to its value (think Amazon). However, an undervalued stock, if the company continues to deliver, will eventually approach fair value.

    Buying more of a company you believe in will reward you if you're right about the company. Selling an overvalued company can bite you even if you're right about the company. Timing is hard to do right.

    It's like trying to get ahead in heavy freeway traffic. Unless you've got an edge (say an uber-quick and small Roadster), you're typically almost as well off as just picking a good lane and staying in it. Most retail investors don't have the equivalent of a Roadster for trading tools.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Amen brother.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Not too bad of a day. I added 15,000 shares. I would like to buy more so it would be ok if it waits till next week to move up.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    My strategis have been successful 19 out of 21 times (90.4% success rate) thus far. I play the spread and as long as short interest remains high I will continue to do so on this stock. The reason I had to buy into rumors of Elon being interview on bloomsberg is because he usually gives very insightful information on those types of interviews which may swing TSLA up or down (you just have to read between the lines). Last big interview he had where the stock dropped about 8% was when he side stepped questions regarding production numbers back during 3rd Q. Since I'm gunning for a short squeeze like many of us, I had to rebuy on rumor of the interview bc I surely didnt want to miss the boat. Since I don't have cable I couldnt confirm on that rumor, just had to buy with blind faith. As for being lucky to lose $1 buck, it was a culculated risk, there's no way TSLA is moving above the high of $38.80 IMO without significant news, I predicted this and posted it on yahoo last week. But in case if it does, I still have thousands of shares bought into 2014 and 2015 call options at $40 strike.... average price bought for TSLA is $27 per share the last 2 years with gains of 30% in December from playing the spread alone. One thing I've learned from this past week with TSLA reaching new highs is that I rather HOLD onto the stock and NOT risk a squeeze than to gain shares on spread and possibly miss the boat-ride. I will HOLD for several months after 1st Q conference since I having a feeling a squeezie is in the horizon sometimes in 2013.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Uh no, it's simply inappropriate to blame a simple post about a possible interview, on your decision to act on it exclusively;
    and then conflate that decision into your successful strategic methods to demonstrate its importance to those methods.
    I don't think you'll maintain your success rate if you don't change this part of your strategy. In addition, you don't need cable, simply go their website and look at the schedule of guests. If you can read this blog, you can do that; as I did when suspicious of an interview so close to earnings report.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I can careless about losing that $1 to be honest, especially if my record has been successful thus far and I'm not blaming this on anyone but myself. However, if it were me, I would post information that is reliable, I also checked the website and googled the information (not naiive not to) but didnt find anything neither, I thought maybe perhaps the person had some sort of inside information that we weren't aware of, I took the risk and lost on the bet, so what? Its only a buck while my initial investment was $27 a share, which meant I made out with $10 in earnings. But what I'm trying to convey here is SIMPLY post info that you deem reliable since we all read this forum, it would be a complete waste of time to read a bunch of BS, simple as that. The other point that you missed completely was my second message to investors, which is I felt remorsed for selling my shares and picked TSLA back up immediately so I don't miss out on the ride in case there was squeezie. my 90% success rate didnt come by accident, it was carefully thought out meticulously, however, sometimes, the greed of this game gets the better of me. Once in awhile, I need that slap in the face to wake me back up. Don't trip out on my style, its working for me and I wouldnt ever chastise your style if it worked out for you nor would I ever wish any negativity on your investment strategies.....
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Welcome to the internet FirstInLife!

    This is not a finished product with a reputation you can trust, only fools trust what they read on an internet forum.
    Consider this a lesson and you will do well. Alternatively you can feel angry and I suspect you will have many more challenges to come. To each their own path.

    -Otmar
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  • 1/1/2015
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    At $38 again. I'm looking forward to $40+
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    Don't be such a pessimist. ;)
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  • 1/1/2015
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    40 is the new 30
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    Buy 100 more at $38.
    I am buying 100 shares every month and now I got 900 shares so far.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Now that is funny!
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  • 1/1/2015
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    So, so glad I jumped back in.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Added a bit more yesterday at 37.20. Every tick up pays a little more of my Model S. ;)
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Exactly. Research has show that most people who try and get in and out timing the market end up with smaller gains than if they had just stayed in, because they tend to miss some of the upward movement. I accept it if people say it works for them (the same way I accept it when people say their system wins them money every time they go to Vegas), but it definitely doesn't work for me.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I agree and seldomly do I trust anyone. I research as much as I can before making a move; however there will be times where Ill act on instinct bc these are critical times if you want to make $$ on tesla, the swings are more volitile now then ever. Don't assume that I'm angry for the lose, which is far from the truth. I love this stock and the gains it's giving me. I trust our CEO and his product.. I'm simply just calling out the guy who posted false info at a very critical time, he is also LONG tsla..so i gave him more benefit of the doubt than i should have..It wasn't just me who fell for it, others wasted their time searching the source and taping the entire days worth of Bloomberg and re-watched it hoping to get a glimpse of Elon. Again, if I came on as angry I apologize it's not my intent. My hope is that we are able to post reliable info. It's definitely one of those things where if I played the game according to my instinct then i can eliminate mistakes, but when I start to listen to others, my mistakes are more abundant. The stock is higher today, congrats to all that bought back in. Take it from me guys, you'll feel a lot of regret from selling TSLA during this critical moment where the company is starting to meet production goals.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    fwiw, I wouldn't count on a forum post to make my investing decisions.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Love to finish over $38 today. Go Tesla. Go Elon.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    U.S. car sales signal return to normal


    DETROIT (MarketWatch) � Automobile makers kicked off 2013 with yet another month of rising U.S. sales, indicating new-vehicle purchases may now be on track to return to pre-recession norms this year.

    January U.S. car sales signal return to normal - MarketWatch

    An expanding market should be good for TM.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Toyota Top Auto Brand, Tesla Gaining: Survey

    Toyota Top Auto Brand, Tesla Gaining - now in top ten of US Car-Brand Perception (at #10)

    Consumer Reports says it is taking more than a single ad campaign or one new model to make an impact on Americans.

    The exception is Tesla. The electric-vehicle company has just one model, the Model S, and its marketing has been limited. However, Tesla has been in the headlines several times in the last six months as the Model S was honored with awards such as Motor Trend's Car of the Year. Tesla raised its score in the latest survey to 55 from 42 last year.
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    Wow. So if I'm reading this right, over the last two days shorts are only at 30% of float now? That's a big drop from earlier in the week.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I think the percentage of short activity we see on the interactive charts page is for that day only. There is simply not enough total volume of trades in one day to drop the overall short position that much.
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    Pretty cool that the price has been running up this high and the shorts are just not starting to cover ...
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    Not exactly. These percentages are activity per takes for each day, not the total. Shows how he shorts are behaving on a daily basis. This reduction in percentage over the last few days would have minimal effect on the current total, but shows e trending direction
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Got it. Whew. That makes sense. Thanks
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    Discussions about Tesla marketing and advertising were moved to Tesla Marketing
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    That car looked good. If it was electric and had decent range (200 miles+) I'd be all over it.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    $39 anyone? ;)
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Sure has been fun watching the share price heading north the last month. Let's keep in perspective that the Dow is at a lifetime high right now.

    I would not advise purchasing more shares right now. Even with a great Q4 Conference Call I think the share price will correct down, especially if the market overall sees a pull back, TSLA will follow. I am a buyer at $30, previously my highest purchase price was $28.5.

    I've inched up starting at 18, 23, 26, & 28.5. So far I have timed my buys with the valleys and a very happy camper!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The magic number is 88! ($ or mph)

    31 oct: $28 with 31M shorts;
    15 jan: $38 with 26M shorts.

    By the time all the shorts have covered we'll be at $88.

    If you see any fault in this reasoning then I don't want to hear it. Thank you. ;-)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't think its that simple - although I don't have an alternative model to offer you :)

    I'm also very suspicious of the short percentage data points. What is the authoritative source for total percentage of float that is short? I've heard its 50% and other say its near 30%. Not sure where to find this information.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Maybe I missed it but does anyone know when the Q4 conference call is yet. Looked at the investor area of their web site and nada.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Feb 11, 2013
    Q4 2012 TESLA MOTORS INC Earnings Release - as per Google finance.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Is it possible for them to report a profit? Has anyone put together achievable numbers that show a scenario where this happens? I have an odd feeling that Elon has a surprise ready for the shorts.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Seems all but impossible. They only had full shipment for 4-6 weeks and that using massive overtime (I'd guess some workers are hourly) plus opening new stores, super chargers, etc. Any surprises would likely be about the future rather than the past, such as higher long term production rates or some such.

    I did hear one interesting thing a few weeks back, though no idea how true it is or if it's really have any investment relevance, that Tesla was going to create an aluminum foundry to produce all that aluminum themselves. And SpaceX uses quite a bit as well apparently. I remember some interview where Elon was joking about being jacked around on aluminum prices and wondered what it'd take to make aluminum...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    drunkonkoolaid
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Can they realize revenue for cars that have been sold, but not produced? Wasn't there an announcement that they were trying to get as many reservations finalized as they could? I read an article a while ago that got the impression they are trying to realize revenue for cars that will not be produced for another 4-5 months.

    Assuming 400 cars per week, this would allow them to realize revenue for 10-13k cars. (Positive territory assuming 8K cars = Positive ?). They won't receive the EV credits until they are produced, but in theory, they could use an accounting trick to let them achieve revenue that wasn't expected to be seen until the middle/ end of 2013.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think this was addressed on one of the earnings calls. Earnings are not recognized until delivery.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That's right from what I heard. Likely the best they could do is count a shipped (loaded on the truck) as 'delivered'. That's about as far as they could stretch it likely
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Firstly, I don't think this is possible in any accounting system in the US.
    But, even if we assume that this was somehow possible, why would they do this? If they showed all the un-shipped sales this quarter, yea it would be great, the company might be able to turn a profit, and the shorts would flee shooting the stock price up. But it really wouldn't be a sound business strategy. Next quarter, or the one after that, when reservations slow down because all the early adopters have already purchased the cars, and the company would end up showing a loss because the cars they manufacured for that quarter were already shown as sold products on the balance sheets for the previous quarter... That doesn't make sense at all. Def. not a good strategy if they want to show long term strength (which they need to get the financial backing from investors to develop the 3rd gen model).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Do you mean count the deposits as revenue?

    No, deposits are booked as liabilities. And Tesla only recognizes revenue on the delivery of vehicles to customers.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    When is report date? Yahoo and google list as feb 11 but no company announcement of date that I can find including company web site. I am sure there are rules on length of time to give out notice, does anyone know what this is. Could they still report on Monday? Wonder why no announcement. I always have anxiety around meeting announcements. Had outs in Zales which expired days after the date of report and they cancelled report 1 hr before presentation.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Above $38.80, nosebleed territory. According to Google, the 52 week high is $39.95, but that must have been intra-day. The highest close I see is $38.01 on 4/3/12.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    39$ watch out!! we're coming!!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Reservation deposits are booked as liabilities, because they are refundable. The question is when the car is finalized and the deposit becomes an advanced down payment how is it accounted for.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You mean $40 now!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Im not sure about 40$ today. Its a tough step!!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If the shorts get scared, who knows. I'm happy with $39.

    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Time to buy some puts for protection before the 2/11 announcement. And then hope it goes sky high to make me look foolish.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If you are a long, $40 is just a beginning. There would be $50, $70, $100. Probably even $200. Very likely, IMO (setting aside earthquakes, tornados, tsunamis and so on).

    But I would agree, you would need protection if you need money by predefined date, like to fund your Model S purchase. Or if you know that in few months you have to sell TSLA no matter what. Buying puts is insurance, but it have got a limited expiry date. Not relevant for longs.
    �
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