Thứ Năm, 27 tháng 10, 2016

Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements part 11

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nobody can perfectly explain trading in a weekly pattern, it's not possible to know the motivations of every trader in the market simultaneously.

    Also, people don't get advance earnings reports. Insider trading laws may be circumventable by some nefarious people at times, but not in that blatant manner. That would end careers and companies and mean jail time. So, no it really just does not happen that often, particularly at a company like Tesla Motors run by a hyper-vigilant, principled genius.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Insider trading carries a prison sentence. It's not worth the risk for someone to do it for small money and big trades would attract too much attention and possible investigation so I doubt that anyone is reacting to advance information. What does happen is that plenty of funds watch a company up till the last moment and decide (with all available public information) whether to make a bet on the ER. Lots of trading just prior to ER is not unusual especially on a volatile stock like TSLA.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Disco, I really think it's just noise, but in the case of Tesla, the huge transformation of the company's value caused a warranted huge increase in value, but to a trader that looks like huge volatility and they see it as a chance to make money (whether they know what they are doing or not), and so the noise is larger in Tesla than average. add in the love/hate reactions to Tesla causing irrational impulsive reactions to moves.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There's a lot of exuberance going into the Q4 ER, but we also had a lot of exuberance going into the Q3 ER and as someone that got burned really badly there, I'd just like to point out that the stock is up $60 since Tesla pre-announced the 6900 deliveries. Tesla has already hinted at the giga factory, China shipments, etc. Rememeber, the Q3 ER was, by almost any measure, full of good news, but expectations and rumor were sky high.

    If expectations are similarly overset for the Q4 ER, as they were in Q3, then TSLA may not move like we hope.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    Don't feel bad, I did the same thing at the exact same price. I figured it was cheaper than buying puts. I'm back in now, small slap on the wrist. I was really hoping to get my shares back at a discount this morning.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ditto: I am back in after paying a penalty to be on the sidelines for the open. I don't much regret it.


    There are significant differences between Q3 ER and now. For one, we had had 2 positive reactions in a row. Honestly I was always a bit puzzled by the positive reaction to the Q2 announcement. It felt like TSLA just had positive momentum so a good report was enough to make it go higher the next day.

    For Q3, the momentum was going sharply the other way. We were mid f*re freakout and technically the market was looking for an excuse to push it down. When a good report came out, the fact that it wasn't bristling with extra goodies was enough for the market to push it down, continuing a technical correction. Q3 needed to be so good it broke the back of a strong downward trend.

    For Q4 (now) the situation is reversed. The technicals are on an uptrend and the market is looking for a reason to push it up. We just (apparantly) survived our first f*re FUD alarm with a shrug, a very bullish sign which deserves it's own rally. Plus, there are good reasons to suspect the Q4 ER will be bristling with goodies, as the Q3 was not. The positives have been listed elsewhere (including by me) but include asia demand, model x reservations, GM upside, good factory planning, production constraints easing. Some of that is priced in, yes, but not all in my humble opinion. I think the market is looking for a reason to push it up to a new ATH, I have a target of 220 for the end of next week and I think it will have support at that level.

    I don't think this is irrational exactly, the company is now humming along better than the last ER.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That was true from Q2 to Q3 as well.
    Yea, there was a lot of talk about various goodies leading into Q3 ER. Huge VIN number rumors and speculations on massive ramp ups, talks about EU shipments and demand, what was on boats, etc.
    The stock is up nearly 50% in 1 month and at an ATH.

    Anyway, FWIW, the atmosphere in this forum is almost exactly like it was before Q3's ER. Maybe the group think is right this time, but just giving a word of caution to anyone that might want to get swept away in it.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I believe the problem with the Q3ER dip was nicely summarized by Austin. The other 'goodies' not given out at that point was guidance. If you listen to the tape of the Q and A with Elon he really seemed to want to make a couple comments but held back.....I think it will be different this time (OK...I am hoping it will be different this time)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Another thing I distinctly remember was that on the conference call (Q3) Elon sounded wiped out and completely exhausted. When he was touring Europe a few weeks ago he sounded like a kid in a candy shop, and look at his tweets lately. He is really on this awesome kick, and you can't be in an awesome kick unless there is awesomeness going in in your life. He has found a new breath if fresh air. There is more to the conference call that what is actually said, how it's said matters a lot. I think the whole market got concerned because of how Elon sounded. We even talked about it here extensively and it concerned us as well.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    While Elon didn't sound good, I'm pretty sure the market had already dropped massively after hours before the call started.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If today's pattern holds, this will be a most remarkable day for this stock. Been blazing up lately, overnight reports of a f*re, and TSLA responds with...low volume and trades within $2 of yesterday's close. Nobody's buying, but more importantly, nobody's selling. I certainly did not expect that. This is an attitudinal inflection point.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    agreed. Incredibly strong today. I think the fact that Earnings call is only a few days away certainly plays into it.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree with Theshadows. Noticed a subtle, but distinctly new confidence in Elon lately. Bodes well.

    - - - Updated - - -

    On a side note, I think there are probably many shareholders who have told themselves that they would be getting their model s once the stock hit 200. I know of at least two people and it looked like there was someone else on this board who also expressed that intention. Success begets success and I'm really happy that tesla and tsla are on a roll.

    Glad that we can shrug off the latest toronto incident. even if this incident legitimately was tesla's fault (of which i'm skeptical) *and* it lead to an eventual recall, this would not be a big deal in the long term. these problems can be fixed with electrical/mechanical adjustments and good pr. the battery f*res were more of a risk because they threatened the fundamental basis of the car which could not be changed easily without a major redesign.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I find the sentiment on this forum pretty interesting. The first fires most of us thought it wasn't a big deal and wouldn't affect the price and we got hit hard. This fire almost everyone has become super defensive and so far it seems like a false alarm. I wonder if we could track the sentiment on this forum then use it as an indicator for trading :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    True, but a pre-call espresso would still be in order. :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    As usual the media inoculation dose was so high, TSLA is now Fire immune. It's the usual flame-out scenario. People can only take so much abuse before numbness pervades
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I thought that was what we've been doing!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I would like to point out that companies regularly pay for damages when they are 0% at fault.

    To avoid bad publicity or where a settlement is cheaper than the legal fees to defend a frivolous lawsuit.

    Tesla's fire protection warranty includes driver error only excluding driver sabotage/arson.

    Tesla's offer to pay for the Toronto damages in no way confirms they were partially culpable. Although they may be.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks Nigel. I wonder how often it is done vs how often caught. ;) I'm happy to assume innocence until proven guilty. Also, I hope the SEC is watching as this earnings should be a doozy.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Have a feeling we'll close above $200! That would be a great start to the long weekend :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You jinxed it....
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Until the municipal parking garage used by residents of our highrise provides recharging outlets, I'm stuck with a car that we learned today is being recalled by GM. Note toward the bottom of the following article that Zacks ranks GM as a strong sell and TSLA as a strong buy.

    General Motors Recalls Compact Cars - Analyst Blog
    3:00p ET February 14, 2014 (Zacks.com)General Motors Co. (GM) announced the recall of 778,562 Chevrolet Cobalt and Pontiac G5 compact cars of model years 2005 to 2007 in North America. The recall is being made to fix faulty ignition switches which may lead to sudden shutdown of the engine, leading to near-fatal crashes.

    According to General Motors, a heavy key ring or uneven roads can cause the ignition switch to shift away from the run position, thus turning off the engine and electrical power. In such a situation, the front air bags will not be deployed in case of a crash.

    There have been reports of five frontal-impact crashes and six front-seat fatalities caused by collisions due to this problem. All the crashes occurred off-road at high speeds. General Motors also reported that some of the drivers were intoxicated and were not wearing seat belts. There are reports of 17 other crashes which had some frontal crash impact and non-fatal injuries.

    Among the recalled cars, 619,122 were sold in the U.S., 153,310 were sold in Canada and 6,130 vehicles were sold in Mexico. General Motors announced that it will replace the ignition switch for free.

    General Motors is a leading global automotive company and has operations in almost 120 countries and facilities in 30 countries. It currently holds a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

    General Motors�s rival Ford Motor Co. (F) recalled 13,493 Edge SUVs in China last month to repair defective fuel systems. Inferior quality of the fuel pulsation damper used in the vehicles could lead to cracks resulting in fuel leakage. This could eventually lead to fire. Ford also recalled 27,933 Edge crossover vehicles of model years 2012 and 2013 in the U.S. for the same reason.

    Some better-ranked automobile stocks worth considering are Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) and Dongfeng Motor Group Company Ltd.(DNFGY). Tesla sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), while Dongfeng carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Short Term TSLA Investor Social Chat

    It's also up something like 3% over the last 3 months.

    The recent gains I consider a recovery more than anything. 120 was plain wrong.

    That said, please remain bearish on earnings, ckessel. We need your good luck ;)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Important point here: we've mostly been retracing ground lost after the three f***s. From Oct 1 to yesterday, TSLA was up 2.9% while the DJIA was up 6.4%. Now it's time for the stock to actually move up for real.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Has this been discussed yet?

    Hon Hai Precision Industry Strives to Assemble Tesla Cars
    SHANGHAI, Feb 14, 2014 (Menafn - SinoCast Daily Business Beat via COMTEX) --Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Ltd. endeavours to gain complete car assembly business after becoming a supplier of Tesla. Assembly lines will be set up in Taiwan once the two sides reach cooperation. This will be the first time the company brings hi-tech production lines back to Taiwan for years.
    Hon Hai chairman Terry Gou shows that Tesla will be the first hi-tech project the company brings in Taiwan if everything goes well.
    Hon Hai spokesperson did not confirm the rumor but shows that the company has an active attitude to electric car business.
    Source: www.auto.gasgoo.com (February 14, 2014)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sounds really unlikely. Given tensions between China and Taiwan, I can't imagine a worse place to set up shop in Asia.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agreed. All the goodwill about fair pricing in China will go away in an instant. No way TM gets involved in that joint venture.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Did I miss some recent news? China-Taiwan tensions have been thawing for decades. I'd say they are pretty low now with direct flights, cross straits tourism and gazillions of dollars in direct trade.

    Once in a while there some saber rattling about Taiwan being a "renegade province" but the pragmatists always seem to prevail.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm not particularly bearish, just that once again expectations are sky high and the ER will have to be good just to hold the ATH. What's primarily moved the stock has been events/accomplishments, typically ones that aren't well expected: first profit, unexpected profit in Q2, disappointing Q3, fires, etc.

    The Q4 is well expected given the pre-announcement of 6900 cars. I think the ER will be full of good stuff, but given we're at an ATH and we're still nearly a year from the X delivering, I'm not sure how much it can juice the stock. Strong guidance perhaps, but the 40k/year run rate has already been tossed around heavily in the news and interviews, so that's not new or unexpected either. A wild card is maybe non-GAAP profit.

    I suspect the ER will go over far better than Q3, but it's hard to see what unexpected accomplishment Tesla could reveal that's cause for a Q1 or Q2 like spike. And we, here in the fold, knew those pretty well based on obsessively pooling our group knowledge :)...wish I'd known then what I know now about options. What do we think we know this time that the market doesn't?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The tension is just a facade.

    Honhai/Foxconn is in the perfect position to do assembly for Tesla. Given that, they are the one who is operating the assembly plants in China that had quite a few suicides, forcing Apple to intervene and raising worker wages. They are not really bound to Taiwan. So I can see that Tesla is in negotiation with Foxconn, but the China side of Foxconn in order to take advantage of all the benefits of having a plant in China while leveraging the knowledge and metal manipulation industry in Taiwan.

    My only concern is that I have not heard of Hon Hai assembling cars before so, they will be a new entrant to the space. However, seeing how TSLA has been poaching everything apple and getting it working, I think there's a chance. They might be in talks instead of having a concrete plan signed though.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It would be cool if Elon drove on stage for the earnings call/conference in the final Beta of the Model X. And on the back it said P110+.

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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I echo Robert.Boston in thinking that the recent rise in price is more a recovery from all the stuff that happened before. Several things make me bullish for earnings. First, the pre-announcement of sales figures. They did this prior to Q1'13 and despite the pre-release there was still a massive upside after the call. If they were willing to pre-announce, then I strongly suspect there is a lot of great news in the pipeline. Second, the market shrugging off the last "f;re was a huge bullish sign. If we were teetering at an unstable price that would have been an easy excuse to cash out. Instead, we are seeing consolidation within a few percent of our previous ATH back in September and our major gains have been on volume. I agree with others that the stock looks poised to breakout. Third, sentiment is on our side; much the opposite of Q3. There is no political hogwash going on; Elon is chipper; and finally the company and stock went through a four month trial and is coming out on the other side much stronger than before - better PR practices, new talent, more SC stations.

    My positions are based on these sentiments and if we enter earnings in the low 200's next week I will let my investments ride. If we have some big gains prior then I might take some of my shorter term options off the table.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was looking for a time to take some profits. I ended up selling all early morning Friday, near ATH because after reading through the incident reporting, it appeared that there was a unique potential contagion that could result in a drop where I'd buy part way back in. The potential contagion is that this event may be unique, because it may have happened spontaneously. The other events were related to occurrences with known causes, making their risk something that can be managed (higher suspension, lower Amps, greater user precaution etc). Certainly a known cause will likely be determined, but my sense is that, barring out right fraud, that if this fire started spontaneously in the motor, that mitigating the risk may be much more difficult for Tesla than a simple software upgrade. with respect to the risk of a pull back for TSLA, I felt that a spontaneous event is more likely to result in an over reaction than another one of the types we've already seen (accidents and charging adapter issues). It's a gamble and I'm not going to beat myself up if I'm wrong, but I'm holding out a bit before buying back in to see if it's just taking a few days for this event to sink in before a sell off. I have to say it's given me pause, particularly that the car was not plugged in... the thought that our car, parked under our bedroom, could burst into intense flames, without warning, is a bit worrisome, especially with a house full of kids. I hope the cause is determined soon, and that it's determined to either be a random, extremely unlikely malfunction (catastrophic short in the motor) or delayed reaction to a undercarriage strike or that the fire was not actually related to the car, but instead to something in the car or garage or some kind of outright fraud like a short who was desperate to get out of an impending squeeze, who originally planned to pay for the car through short earnings but was now broke.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    +1 gym

    Also, I think there is little benefit in saying that because we TMC nerds know something that the market must also know it. We can be in front of the market.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think this thought went through all of our minds but in the other thread our TMC investigators (lol) ruled out many things. I was nervous about the motor or drivetrain being the cause but from the photographical evidence it definitely wasn't. You can tell just by knowing how the Model S is structured. The majority of the car is in tact (although we don't see the front clip of the vehicle). But it's good you did what you did. Understand your risk tolerance, but it's also very risky to time the market.

    - - - Updated - - -

    The fact that we know what a Tesla Model S is... puts us at an advantage. That and the common public still thinks they go on fire. Unsophisticated, I will take their shirts and cash.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This has been said several times but ice cars burst into flames in garages all the time. The only concern would be if tesla cars were more likely to do so. There is no evidence of that yet.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agreed. If the motor was the issue the problem would be in the rear of the car. All the focus is in front of it. We all have to be comfortable with the decisions we make, particularly when our family's safety is involved. However, I still sleep easier about the Tesla that sits in my garage than the ICE vehicles that share the garage with it.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    +1. There's equal evidence the Lexus sitting next to S caused he fire. Is anyone worried about Toyota stock being impacted?
    We'd all be safer if we just parked those iCE fire hazards outside I think. Leave the garage for the EVs
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That is an awful lot of speculation and guessing about something the market digested, processed, and completely shrugged about.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agreed. Buy a smoke detector.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, since I missed the chance at a good setup for ER with calls, mostly because I don't like how high the premiums are, I was thinking of possibly doing a bull put spread? Selling a slightly otm put and buying a further otm put (like sell 190 buy 175 or something), just in case we see another big drop for no good reason, but this way I make some free cash if the stock goes up or stays flat? I'm pretty sure it will do one of those two things, but not sure enough to sell naked puts, and not sure enough to know which calls are worth buying given the high premiums. What does everyone think about this?

    Also was thinking I probably want to buy some March/April calls just after ER, depending on what happens. Though I might just break down and do a few before it too. Don't think I'm willing to go big with these premiums though - but then, that's burned me before (Jan 14... :-/)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I personally exited my short-term option calls on Friday. I'm also considering a put credit spread (bull put spread). Here are my notes:
    PUT CREDIT SPREAD
    Feb 14
    sell 185 put for $580
    buy 175 put for $315
    $265 income and max gain
    $635 max pain (closes $175 or lower on Feb 14)

    I was also brainstorming an iron condor, but I�m weary that ER could surprise on the upside. I�m more confident that it won�t break below 185 than I am it not breaking above 210.
    IRON CONDOR
    Feb14
    sell 190 put for $800
    buy 180 put for $450

    $350 income and max gain
    $650 max pain (if expires at 180, then close out for -$1000 but already received $350 income)
    *$370 max pain (since received $280 from selling calls)

    Feb 14
    buy 220 call for $420
    sell 210 call for $700

    $280 income and max gain
    $720 max pain (if expires at 220+, then close out for $1000 but already received $350 income)
    *$370 actual max pain (since received $350 from selling puts)

    On Feb 21:
    If closes 190-210, then gain $630.
    If closes 185, then gain $30 (-$500 + $350 + $280)
    If closes 180 or below, then lose $370
    If closes 215, then gain $30 (-$500 + $280 + $350)
    If closes 220 or higher, then lose $370
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Today looks like it will be a very interesting day. PM around 205.25 at the time of writing. Looks like a squeeze in the making. Frantic shorts releasing new articles on SA, repeating the same old BS over and over. Get the popcorn and lean back.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    yes, still climbing PM, pushed to 206.00.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Bought put option contracts for half my position at strike price 195, February 22 expiry. To be sold Thursday morning after the earnings call.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sold a put credit spread this morning. Sold weekly 195 puts for 8.27, bought weekly 190 puts for 6.33.

    Credit of $195 per contract. Max loss $305 per contract ($500 minus $195 already received).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I sold my feb lottery tickets this am. My feb 245's I sold for a 30% gain and I sold the 250's for a 10% loss.

    I still believe in these but the time decay is going to be tremendous. My thoughts are to rebuy them tomorrow for less. If I can't do that then I am fine with that.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My Jan '16 145 leaps are up a whopping $0.70. Leaps are weird.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    actually not. very predictable. when deep in the money, their value will drop (not below stock price minus strike price) but you will see higher appreciation for price increase with otm or close to otm than these. sounds crazy but think of the buyer who wants leverage (the real advantage of the calls). the leverage keeps dropping the further out of the money they become. dont hold too long (i grieve for you since the calls are all so expensive)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    At this point they're thinly traded, being so far in the money. If you look at the bid/ask, you'll notice that the last trade is well outside what you could currently get for them. (At time of writing, last:78.35 bid:79.60 ask:82.80)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't have any TSLA options set up for earnings. However now gathering cash (selling solar calls). I figure if there's sell on the news I'll buy medium term (Apr-Jun14) calls on sale, if there is a pop after hreat news I'll wait for the price to peak and drop a little, from experience the IV of the Mar14 or Apr14 calls will deflate shortly after making a buying op? I' talking about around $10-50 OTM calls. Thoughts?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sounds like a good plan. I'm sitting on some bull call spreads that I'm nervous about... I don't want to miss out on the ride up, but after the way I got burned last time, I don't want to take the risk of a bullish position.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    that sounds like a reasonable strategy to me and about right on the IV cool. I would lean to Jun14 calls I think as positive re-sentiment sometimes takes longer to engage than anticipated

    - - - Updated - - -

    yeah- @austinEV
    that's especially true for odd $ strikes like those $145s (vs $150 etc.). Nothing wrong with them and the market maker has to make good on the Greeks to follow the stock moves. Make sure when you roll them insert a limit order high side of midpoint and move down until filled so you get the best price within the spread.

    - - - Updated - - -

    @austinEV
    agree with Chicken
    My advice would be to consider rolling these to a higher strike perhaps after ER when IV cools down. Currently the high IV isn't doing you any good right now anyway, so wait until IV of all higher strikes reduces after ER, then roll up in strike. If you want to maintain equal $ invested and delta tracking roll up to a strike to achieve 2:1 on the number of contracts with same $s. Just a thought...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I sold my Jan '15 $150 calls for the reasons AustinEV kind of mentioned... they are no longer giving me the leverage I want and are too thinly traded. I bought some Jan '15 $385 calls instead :cool:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Those sad leaps are up 84% as i bought them on Dec4. At the time I didn't really have a timeframe for the slump to recover. As I recall, 2016 was only $10 more than 2015 leaps.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I know I didn't mean to imply those were sad. Nearly my entire TSLA position is in J15,16 LEAPS. And you're exactly right all thru dec (and some of jan for that matter) the extra time value on J16 was crazy low. I did the same and added lots of J16 $250 strikes then. And the DITM strikes are a good stock replacement strategy as well. It was a nice play
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    dont despair about the far out of the money longterm calls. although thinly traded, be ready in a short squeeze kind of like a shark feeding frenzy and everything sells. just be ready.

    alternatively, i used to buy deep in the money calls. almost no premium and a less risky strategy than otm calls. if you buy or hold stike levels at say half the current price, they essentially move at same price as stock. however you are "controlling twice number of the shares" than if you bought stock outright. less volatile

    - - - Updated - - -

    dont despair about the far out of the money longterm calls. although thinly traded, be ready in a short squeeze kind of like a shark feeding frenzy and everything sells. just be ready.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    exactly- these are a great way to base a set of options or just replace a stock investment. I did it for years with AAPL and have in the past with TSLA. Currently, given TSLA super growth, but volatile state, I use a small base of liquid stock position in proportion to a large position of OTM Calls (J15 $250, $300; J16 $250)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I personally see whatever happens tomorrow as a win win. I have a lot of short term OTM calls so if things go up to $225 and up it's a win. But if we go down a ridiculous amount then I'll just get ready to play the ride back up to $200 again but do it even better. I'm in a better position now then when I was last time we were this high (have a lot more LEAPS). So if we gap down a ton, I'll wait for things to cool down then get ready to play some more 15% gain days like we had not too long ago.

    If we do go up a lot, then I'll take profits on short term calls and let LEAPS ride. It's getting harder and harder to make great returns on TSLA so I might focus more elsewhere.

    So I'll either be down 50% or more and I'll use that remaining amount to play the ride up even more aggressively or I'll be up a good amount and can't complain. Just wanted to share my perspective :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nice discussion of LEAPS today. Is anyone planning to hedge their Long term options with short term calls? IV is sure to drop after the earnings report. I have some jan 16 175 strike leaps. Cant decide whether to cover them or let them run. Thanks.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looks like we are going to get our first close above $200 today!
    elon-musk-champagne.jpg
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I may be hedging tomorrow depending on run-up price, with a sell-to-open OTM calls against the same or higher strike I carry in LEAPS (J15 $250)- probably a June; haven't decided yet, but under consideration.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And it stayed over! Good luck with the earnings call everyone. I don't know for sure what will happen but I'm getting a positive vibe!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Anyone know the call in number for the earnings call tomorrow?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Tesla Motors Announces Date for Fourth Quarter Full Year 2013 Financial Results | Press Releases | Tesla Motors

    TESLA MOTORS ANNOUNCES DATE FOR FOURTH QUARTER & FULL YEAR 2013 FINANCIAL RESULTS
    WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 29, 2014
    PALO ALTO, Calif., January 29, 2014 � Tesla announced today that it will post its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2013, after market close on Wednesday, February 19, 2014. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory release via Marketwire containing a link to the fourth quarter and full year 2013 Shareholder Letter, available on the company website. Tesla management will hold a live question & answer webcast at 2:30pm Pacific Standard Time (5:30pm Eastern Standard Time) to discuss the Company's financial and business results and outlook.

    What
    Tesla Motors, Inc. Fourth Quarter & Full Year 2013 Financial Results Q&A Webcast

    When
    Wednesday, February 19, 2014

    Time
    2:30pm Pacific Standard Time / 5:30pm Eastern Standard Time

    Shareholder Letter
    Tesla - Investors Overview

    Webcast
    Tesla - Investors Overview (live and replay)


    No phone number that I could find everything is now a web cast.
    Approximately two hours after the Q&A session, an archived version of the webcast will be available on the Company's website for a period of one year.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    tried to find that phone number for you but I don't see it on their website. Someone will post it, I've seen it for previous ER's. So, what is the general consensus for tomorrow? I'm 80/20 that we will see a positive reaction to earnings and see a $5-$20 gain in stock price. I'm only holding shares right now and I really don't want to hedge. Opinions?

    I thought I would wait and see what the price action is tomorrow, if we have a big run up it will make me nervous, I would rather see flat or some profit taking before the end of the day.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think they've stopped publicly sharing the call-in number since it costs them money for each person that calls in. Instead, they're publicly sharing on the web url and privately sharing the call-in number to analysts only.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thats annoying bc ill be on the road and i dont think my iPhone can listen in from the web...
    maybe if I can dig up the number posted from last quarter it will work...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Try the Q2 number. I don't remember seeing the phone number during Q3.

    The iPhone might work though.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    yes, good call...found it and will try that.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    "Exponential explosion upwards imminent. Just don't know when."

    Doing my taxes and going through my transactions. I found an interesting note that I write on December 26th 2012 on TSLA while reflecting on the whole year. Back then, the recovery was still in doubt. The presidential election happened. Great uncertain abound. I was worried about Republican taking over and putting a damper on green and renewable stocks. On the other hand, Romney might be a great candidate to get the economy going coming from a corporate background
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    iPhone won't work unless you can call in f course. The website still uses Flash (unsupported and properly so on iOS). I've put in several requests for the website to update to more modern HTML5 standard and get off Flash use, but they must be busy with other things ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just so you all know, I had a dream last night that on the conference call today Elon pulled a hat trick at the end and said version 6.0 would be pushed out to everyone tonight. :D
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Excellent! Solar: Answering your question here on 'social' thread: Still plan to do solar at my house this year. Will replace 20+ year old roof first, the go solar. We discussed for the business but too cost prohibit to supply ENTIRE electrical needs but may try to do partial.
    Options: Did sell the 2nd third of my weeklies when we hit $206 briefly yesterday. Riding the rest of the weeklies through ER/Guidance no matter what happens during the day today. Keeping my deep ITM Jan2015 Leaps. Have some $110s, $140s and $170s. Not sure what to do with them but I have time to figure that out.

    - - - Updated - - -

    OK. A favor: Can you take a nap before earnings and dream of an AWD S announcement?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Napping is out if the question today. I loved the dip though, bought a few more feb calls when the price was in the $197 range.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    All joking aside, I hope that no one (shorts, longs, day traders, speculators without a clue) is so over-extended that this would be the result of one stock moving up or down.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Is this why when I got in my car this morning, there was a software update waiting (NOT joking)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow wouldn't that be cool. Ours is warming up, I'm heading out for a meeting in a few, maybe we will have one too. :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    i had one as well this morning - assumed from the chatter on other threads that this was a flavor of 5.8... would be a sweet surprise though
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's here in Norway!

    ara8e4eg.jpg

    This call will be great! What else did you dream??? ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    can you tell which version of the firmware you are now getting? version 6 would influence my short term play
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Interesting... It seems like this update is being sent to all vehicles simultaneously instead of up through the VINs. Isn't the infamous ninja update that removed susp lowering the only other update that worked this way?

    And I had to leave for work - going home to switch cars and update in a few hours, so I will post if someone hasn't beaten me to it
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No update here.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Funny, I was thinking about that yesterday.. I kind of expect it to happen, actually. Should have a bit of an impact if someone asks a question about the lowering or charge reduction and then TM/Elon pulls out a new firmware update concurrently w/ the conference.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    image.jpg
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    an up-sidedown-date? did you crash :tongue:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I just called a local tesla showroom. They were unaware of any updates and hadn't heard anything about firmware v6 coming out.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Bummer

    image.jpg

    UPDATE:
    I was able to lower my suspension to the lowest setting while in park. Did it multiple times, even made someone stand and watch to confirm. LOWERING IS BACK!!!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    this was still doable in the last firmwares too, nothing new. If it lowers, or you can lower it near 60mph then it might be something
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Oh.... Crap.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Bah, isn't that typical. Here I go and close my short an hour early in expectation of surprisingly good earnings numbers. Thankfully the results aren't out yet. Surely there isn't anything to be learned from an event like this.

    Although I'm pretty sure it's shorting going on right now, and not profit taking. The profit taking would have happened earlier.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Twiddler, thanks. Probably a combination of profit taking and shorting imo. edmunds car breakdown likely didn't help either.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Alright guys, I'm all in now, house,grand mother, future wife and all Mostly March calls ranging from 200-280 and Feb wk 4 call at 250. The deep OOM calls were added on todays drop. From what I've gathered this ER has huge potential and it would be foolish not to take a chance. If it doesn't go the way I hope I'll still think I've done the right play and will be content with that no matter what. The market can often act illogically, but what matters is that you've made the right analysis.


    I hope you guys have the Champagne on cooling.
    I'll end my meaningless rant with a quote from Napoleon Bonaparte: "I drink Champagne when I win, to celebrate�
    And I drink Champagne when I lose, to console myself."
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Same here with 120 shares @ average $198
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    New FW pushed now that let's user set Low means they will announce all clear from NHTSA during the call.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Johan, I would agree in principle, but it doesn't sound like anything new was introduced in the latest firmware update that addresses vehicle lowering.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No? I read as you can now drive in low while before it was blocked? Maybe I didn't get it? My update will happen tonight while I'm sleeping.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    By the way the webcast of the conference call from the Tesla IR page works on iphone. I listened to the call driving home last quarter. They must have switched to HTML5 instead of flash
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Excellent news- thanks demetri;
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, it was my mistake; I didn't know that those with 5.8.8 could lower while in park. I just took the car out and it still does not allow lowering at any speed, even after 5 min of >65MPH :redface:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ah. No harm, i just went and took out a new mortgage on my house and put it all in Mar14 $300 calls based on your post

    Seriously though I didn't stick to my plan of sitting out today as the drop for no reason today seems too good a buying oportunity to pass up. Half my cash in today.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have managed to unhedge most of my TSLA calls, and have not purchased any puts or protection. I am looking for a very big move up.

    Either the shorts are getting crushed or I am: I put the odds at 70/30 respectively, and I will take my chance on those odds.

    Go big or go home!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm equally as scared I as I was Q1 2013.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Crazy! How deep are you in?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    what strikes are you looking at sleepy?? Better odds that a hard six or hard eight!
    cheers
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My plan changed today. I didn't expect TSLA to drop this much the day before but half the people I know sold shares in the last week as they don't want burned again. I think people are being fearful so I am being a little greedy.

    Instead of hedging my June calls I decided to add a couple ATM March calls. I got hurt last quarter so here's to undoing last quarter. If I get hurt again there's always next quarter. Rinse wash repeat until I'm bankrupt or rich ;) I read about a similar strategy in "options as a strategic investment." :wink:

    - - - Updated - - -

    That's good, right?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, i bought my first protective put today. I am going big but wNt to keep my home. :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    LOL well Johan, that did coincide with the LOD for the stock so far, so not a bad time to load up (I sure did). I share the sentiments echoed above, but in the end, I think 70/30 (up vs down) is about right. I am in heavy with calls (~400K), all bets placed. Fingers crossed. Champagne on ice.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    that is the Texas slogan right?
    or Tesla slogan ;>

    you 'guys' are awesome here. BTW
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That and "Don't mess with Texas [Tesla]"
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I had a bunch of "covered" calls short for March from $210 to $260. Last week I moved almost all of the $210 - $230s to $240+. This week I started buying back those $240 - $260.

    I bought back a bunch of $250 - $260's today.

    So I am riding this ER for the most part unhedged. It better be good.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Haha. Love it!

    I'm actually pretty relaxed. Just one month ago my portfolio was 50% of what it is today. If I go back to that level it won't change a thing. I'm actually more worried about missing a big move up :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My calls are naked as can be. Added more feb today in the dip. Go big or go home.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    When do they send out the results and letter? right after close? Right at 4:00pm ET?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    CNBC just said 4:05pm.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Increased my exposure by about 40% by scooping up a bunch of March $200 calls around today's low. I wasn't planning on doing it but they seemed so cheap.

    GO BIG OR GO HOME
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Anyone know what time the conference is going to be held today and where I can stream it? Thanks for the info. Too lazy to skim through 148 pages to figure it out.
    �
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