Thứ Năm, 27 tháng 10, 2016

Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements part 27

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Or Joey standing next to someone's Model S with a Tesla hat on.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This morning Seeking Alpha put out an article I'd submitted late Sunday night,

    Don't Let Tesla Bears' Cage-Rattling Knock You Off Course (TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

    while they vetoed the use of the term FUD, and requested a change in tone, I'm still glad to have it up.

    thus far, I just see comments completely ignoring the content of my article to raise fabricated FUD talking points. Thank you TMC for allowing the use of that term :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I just read that a few minutes ago and was just thinking of posting it here as a well-informed article debunking a lot of the popular bear myths of late. Good stuff!
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    thanks eepic. fwiw, becoming a Seeking Alpha contributor is not particularly difficult if anyone is interested in writing an article for them.
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    guest
    Wow, the thing is should we even try do dispel the FUD anymore? I just think it is a shame if that makes people go short. It has reached amazing new heights since the last time I went over to Seeking Alpha. Still, reading those comments make me much more confident in my long position.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think that people intentionally write negative misleading articles about Tesla on SA because that gets more visitors. I'm not sure many authors even agree with what they write.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Unrelated Note - http://theoatmeal.com/comics/tesla_model_s
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    guest
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    guest
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    guest
    Yeah. Everyone who doesn't get Tesla just needs to be pointed to that.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Great article SteveG...comments section is funny seeing, especially that first commenter who proves the entire point of your article, haha
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Haha awesome, especially since Elon has cited oatmeal's Tesla vs Edison comic before in one of his talks.

    Edit: Here it is in case anyone hasn't seen it yet! Why Nikola Tesla was the greatest geek who ever lived - The Oatmeal
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    be interesting to see if Elon bites on the $8M; Or lead the 'charge' for donations - Would be a great cause-
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    guest
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    That is awesome! Love the Oatmeal.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Saw this reposted a few times on my facebook feed already and we just broke $190 again... hmm Oatmeal rally? :cool:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Maybe Panasonic rally:
    LinkToArticle
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So now Panasonic is known as "the supplier to Tesla Motors." I wonder how many years will pass before BMW is known as "the competitor of Tesla Motors."
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, I liked it until I saw the plea for 8mm USD...that might not just be to get the museum off the ground but may also be for the fluff that comes along with it (e.g. Paying the family member X salary to say he is the chairman, etc.).
    Giving away 8mm is a lot of money and not something that should be done by anyone without proper due diligence...unfortunately the US govt often gives much larger sums out all the time for corrupt purposes where due diligence would have prevented it.

    id also like to see a paper trail of exactly what happened to the first 1.4mm they raised before considering any substantial donation again if I were EM
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agree on this point, Elon has a very high networth but most of it is locked up in his equity from massive investments to start TM/SpaceX/SolarCity. The way the second part took some of the sheen off the feel-good of the whole thing, and if Elon did want to look into helping this side philanthropy it would take away from his scarce Tesla/SpaceX time and could draw complaints from investors. Frankly makes it tricky for Tesla or Elon to retweet what would have otherwise been great endorsement.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, a very bittersweet endorsement unfortunately
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Also, part two mentions Elon joining Tesla Motors in 2004. Elon probably won't be happy about that as a 'cofounder' :p
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's true though, he's done enough to be considered a cofounder and was there early enough, but the company was indeed started without him.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Correction: the company was started with Elon's money so technically the company was not "started without him."
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  • 1/1/2015
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    It was incorporated in 2003 prior to Elon's involvement. It's not inaccurate to call him a founder, and it's not inaccurate to say he joined the company in 2004.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Technically, from Wiki

    Tesla Motors was incorporated in July 2003 by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning, who financed the company until the Series A round of funding. Both men played active roles in the company's early development prior to Elon Musk's involvement.Musk led the Series A round of investment in February 2004, joining Tesla's Board of Directors as its Chairman.
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    This is from this article:
    "Elon Musk: ... And so in 2003, I actually had lunch with one of the other cofounders of the company JB Straubel (now CTO of Tesla Motors) who was actually working on a hydrogen airplane or something. He mentioned to me the tzero car that was done by AC Propulsion. AC Propulsion are the sort of guys who had actually been on the EV1 program and they took a gasoline sports car, a kit car and outfitted it with lithium ion batteries, consumer grade cells, and they created a car which was essentially the precursor of the (Tesla) Roadster, and had very similar specifications: sub 4 seconds zero to 60 mph, 250 mile range and also a two-seater sports car. But it was quite primitive. It didn�t have a roof for one thing. At all. And none of them had doors. But it didn�t have any safety system at all, no air bags, it wasn�t homologated, so you couldn�t sell it. So in order to sell that car, in order to create a commercial version of that car, there was a fair bit of work that was required.?
    I kept trying to get AC Propulsion to commercialize the tzero, and I said: �Look, I�ll fund the whole effort, we really need to do this.� But they just refused to do it. They wanted to make an electric Scion. Which in principle sounds good, but in fact it would have cost $75,000 and nobody wants to buy a $75,000 Scion. The technology was just not ready. There was just no way to make a good value proposition.

    Alison van Diggelen: What was it that compelled you to say: �I have to be CEO here and lead this company.� Why not just say: �I�ll help you JB and get this rolling�??

    Elon Musk: Well I really didn�t want to be CEO of two companies. I tried really hard not to be actually. Yes. So AC Propulsion finally said�I told AC Propulsion: �If you�re not going to do this, I�m going to create a company to do this.� And they said well, there�s some other guys who�re also interested in doing that and you guys should combine efforts and create a company. And that�s basically how Tesla came together. And then we had a lot of drama (laughter). But since I�d provided like 95% of the money, so I could have been the CEO from day one� but I really didn�t want to be CEO of two startups at the same time. It was not appealing. And shouldn�t be appealing by the way, if anyone is thinking that�s a good idea. It�s a terrible idea."?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Here's an excerpt from another article:
    ABG: Why don't we start with how you got involved with Tesla to begin with.

    Elon: So, the way I got involved was in 2003, I think it was in September or October, I had a lunch with JB Straubel and Harold Rosen. Harold Rosen was kind of a space guy, Harold had a space background and a car background. He was with Rosen Motors. But before that, he was an engineer at Hughes and he came with a number of innovations for the early geosynchronous satellites. So, he kind of had, like me, a combination of space, and electric car interests. So Harold called me up out of the blue and wanted to have lunch and brought along JB Straubel. And during lunch, he talked about space stuff, and he talked about electric car stuff because I had mentioned the reason I first came out to California was to do a Ph.D. at Stanford in a higher density capacitors to use in electric vehicles. And we talked about lithium ion and what that meant for electric vehicle range. The EV1 had a range of about 120 miles or so with Nickel Metal Hydride and so if you did a direct substitution of lithium ion for nickel metal hydride, which has directly 2x the energy density you get to around a 240-250 mile range, which would be acceptable to people. JB mentioned that there was this company, AC Propulsion, that had actually put together this electric sports car, which did in fact deliver range of that order and acceleration from 0 to 60 under 4 seconds.

    So, he offered to introduce me to Tom Gage, the guy from AC Propulsion, which he did, and Tom Gage came by and gave me a test drive with the tZero , I said, "wow, this is really awesome." This is exactly what I thought should be done and I tried to buy one. He wouldn't sell it to me and I said, "Look, you should really go into production with this thing, productize the tZero. But they didn't want to do that. I don't know if you're familiar with AC Propulsion...

    ABG: I'm familiar with them and I've talked to Martin previously about AC Propulsion as well.

    Elon: Yes, so anyway, I tried at length to get AC Propulsion to at least make me one bloody car, even if they wouldn't go into production with the thing, but they wouldn't do it. I even tried to get them to convert my Porsche to electric, and they wouldn't do that either. And in addition, after bargaining for a bit, Tom Gage said, "Well, you know, we aren't interested in doing that but there are these three guys who are and said, "Do you want to meet Martin (Eberhard), Marc (Tarpenning) and Ian (Wright)." I said, "Sure."

    This is actually very similar to the path that Eberhard himself took before launching Tesla. When we spoke to him last year he also discussed being inspired to start Tesla after AC Propulsion declined to produce the tZero. In essence the true stimulus for the creation of the Tesla Roadster might have been Tom Gage and his resistance to following the path that Eberhard and Musk ultimately took.

    So Tom gave Martin and Ian my card and they came by SpaceX and gave a presentation. Well, there are a few things that I disagreed in what they showed. I wanted to have a company-owned sales and service infrastructure, they wanted a dealership infrastructure. And I didn't want to be a niche sports car company. I wanted it to be something that would aim for the mass market as soon as possible. So it's a sports car at the intro, but we wouldn't stay there; we'd go mass market as soon as possible.

    Those were the two big changes that I had. Apart from that... I said let's move forward and create a production version of the tZero. So I provided essentially, all of the Series A funding. There wasn't any Tesla Motors at that time.

    This was in March/April 2004. According to Eberhard, Tesla Motors had been incorporated on July 1, 2003 but it consisted only of himself, Tarpenning and Wright at the time. None were drawing any salary.

    It was just basically Martin, Marc and Ian working part-time and a sort of business plan that was a kind of a weak business plan actually. That's all Tesla Motors was when I invested. I provided essentially entire Series A round, over 90 percent of it. There were a few small VC investments and a few small individual investors.

    So, to kick things off, that's how things started off with AC Propulsion and basically, from my standpoint, it's started off with a conversation with JB Straubel , who by the way, a few months later called me up and said he's thinking about joining Tesla and had wanted to know if I thought it was a good idea. I said, "Well, definitely because I'm investing in it. So JB joined and became Chief Technology Officer and was really the key guy responsible for developing the differentiated technology.

    Eberhard confirms that Straubel was hired as a Drivetrain Engineer about one month after the Series A funding closed and was employee 6 or 7. Straubel contributed to the development of the powertrain from the original AC Propulsion design. Straubel wasn't promoted to Chief Technology Officer until a year later after managing the design and construction of the dynomometer used to test Tesla's powertrain.?

    So, it looks like Tesla Motors was incorporated on July 1, 2003 prior to Elon's involvement but it basically consisted of just a few people working on it part-time and a business plan. I'm doubtful that much money was spent prior to the Series A, as if a significant amount was spent (ie., over a few hundred thousand) then those investors/founders would have accrued a decently large % share in the company, which doesn't seem to be the case.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, Tesla was a small time "Garage Company" before Elon's involvement.

    After Series A the split was probably 60% ownership for Elon 15% Martin and 15% Marc.


    And their percentage ownership kept shrinking with each new round of funding.


    And they sold their shares during the IPO. But Martin and Marc are the founders.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I highly doubt that Martin and Marc had 15% of the company each after the Series A. My bet is that if Elon invested 95% of the Series A and before that it was just 3 people part-time, then this is how the ownership would look like:
    85+% Elon Musk
    3-5% Martin
    3-5% Marc
    3-5% Other

    A "founder" is not just someone who was there technically at the beginning of a company's incorporation. A founder is someone who has both ownership and has an integral part in growing the company past infancy. Anyone who invests 95% of the early funding in any company is a founder since their role is integral.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    70/30 split is typical for Silicon Valley between VC and founders.

    Elon was not the only VC,90% but not all of it.


    If you give the original founders only a tithe there is no real incentive to start a company.

    A founder is someone who is there at the inception of the company and has the original idea for a product or service.

    An electric car using off the shelf computer batteries, electric motors and other parts where Marc and Martin's idea.


    Every one was aware that automobiles is a capital intensive business. Even small scale electric automobile business.

    They knew future funding would be necessary and that percentages for the original owners i.e. founders would get smaller.

    5% would get widdled to nothing rather quickly.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My main point is that Elon, JB, Martin and Marc can all be considered co-founders of Tesla Motors. Again, just because a person had an idea or was at the incorporation of the company doesn't mean they have a more important role than a person who comes on several months later but plays a hugely crucial role in jumpstarting the company.

    Regarding VC funding, it's different in every case and dependent on many variables. In Elon's version, it was joining of two teams (Elon, JB) and Martin/Marc (who had already incorporated but were working on it part-time). And with Elon's funding injection, they were able to jump to a Series A round (skipping a typical seed round). With Elon bringing in 95% of the initial capital (according to the interview above) and bringing in JB Straubel as a co-founder as well, he's likely going to divide things up where JB gets a decent share as well. However, if you look at JB's ownership of Tesla it is quite small (much less than 1%). Further, if you look at Tesla's IPO filing, Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning are barely mentioned... this leads me to believe they did not have significant shares/ownership prior to Tesla's IPO in 2010. If you combine JB's ownership stake, combine that with Tesla's IPO filing and absence of Martin and Marc's shares, and also add in Elon's disproportionate stake in the early funding rounds, it's leads me to believe that Elon has a disproportionate stake in Tesla from the very beginning (ie., 85+%) and that is the main reason why he was able to keep his ownership stake through all the dilution at a significant 30%.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Interesting discussion. My take on this is that many people had an idea of making bev, many people did make workable models, including some TMC members. But to take an idea and to turn it into a disruptive business is a completely different skill, and there are fewer individuals that can do that.

    Most investors can recognize the added value of these rare individuals to the business that they lead. It is no wonder that most investors are very concerned with Elon leaving Tesla but many do not even know who the original founders were.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    An article from earlier days.

    Onswipe
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Lots of semantics here. I've spent the last 20 years in the valley working on start ups and have grown to appreciate that depending on the situation a "founder" May or may not be integral to the business. I would suggest that whatever EM is to the business with regards to founder status pales in comparison to what he has become to the fundamental success of the business.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    it has become clear with Elon's recent interviews that even when he steps down from CEO he will always have an integral role in the company. I hope that JB steps into the role or some other very capable person after Gen 3 so Elon can start his VTOL battery powered Jet or take a more active role in making the Hyperloop a reality.

    Or maybe after Gen 3 platform is up and running we can crowd source the funding for the Hyperloop from TMC members :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    +1 ... They could of done it with taste ... mentioning that he bought a 1 million dollar toy the overall tone of part 2 were ridiculous .... I feel if done in a different manner a large Elon donation would have been very likely ... it might still be but It turned me off to the whole project (under current .... management)

    - - - Updated - - -

    I read that exact same line as definitive proof that demand in NA is increasing and a complete non - issue unless the issue is the ever present need to make more cars to satisfy the completely organic demand. Word of mouth is called the best advertising because it is free. It will be a much easier sale when there are commercials on T.V. letting the world know how insane this car is. Once that starts there will be much more of the free word of mouth advertising we have now.

    You think there is some issue here they are hiding but that is clearly not the case. Cheers and happy investing.

    Edit: I think any trouble they had forming sentences was related to them being in disbelief that they were getting these questions instead of questions about the ~500,000 square foot facility they just leased. 1. What is it? 2. Why not use Fremont for that? 3. With reports of Fremont being almost 50 percent used do you still think the factory will be able to match output when it was run by Toyota/GM
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest


    Ken, i'm sorry for missing it, but what's this 8 million donation about?
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Looks like he's in:

    udutymev.jpg
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Well, interesting. So, now you have to define 'help':wink:
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Oh snap!

    Way to go, Elon.

    o5Nk1ox.jpg
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    He's probably going to ping Matt offline to discuss a fundraising campiagn... I would say maybe a crowdfunding match, like 50/50 up to $4mm, with some sort of accountability on the proceeds. Doubt it's going to be a straight up cheque for $8mm.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Interesting.

    Mr. Inman mentioned that they were able to crowdfund at the rate of $145,000/day at one point during the initial campaign. I would also suspect some sort of 50/50 match from Elon, wouldn't be surprised if it took all of a week to be fully funded. Tesla (The Nikola and Automtive) variety are hot topics these days. There's huge awareness compared to just a few years ago.

    Also - TSLA has spiked $2 shortly after ValueWalk mentioned the Oatmeal's review... coincidence?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, TSLA showing more strengthen with run to $193
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    Seems to always look like running up and breaking out, but always dips during the last 2 hours of trading.
    Perhaps daily traders taking profits.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Seems to have tracked the major indexes, which took a dive for some reason.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    ostensibly worried about all the economic reports out tomorrow and next days
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I just did my bit of helping with my paypal account.:cool:
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    The first article you linked is also trending to the front page of Reddit via r/technology right now, which is actually remarkable considering that the mods tried to ban Tesla news from the technology subreddit, and from the front page given perception of "political/controversial" subject matter, or something. Anyway, long story short, the land of Harry Potter is thoroughly excited about the arrival of the Nimbus 2000 aka Model S on their shores.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    They already have. Or at least, Top Gear Magazine has already reviewed it and stated:
    "The Tesla Model S is the most important car Top Gear has tested." and "Following the slightly tentative Tesla Roadster, the results are game-changing."

    Excerpt from the article reprinted online here Maserati Ghibli takes on Tesla Model S - BBC Top Gear
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah I did see that Top Gear Magazine super positive review of the car. I was referencing the show however - which I believe has much broader influence than the mag.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Definitely a nice day. Can $200 be far behind?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Although my calls are still hilariously red, this slow steady march has been nice to see. This is actually the most tempered I've ever seen TSLA since the early days. I don't believe we've had more than a 2% swing in the last 10 days.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I thought TSLA's relative strength today while the market was sharply down was a good sign. I have a feeling that, with the string of positive news about market demand slowly trickling out, that we're on the road to recovering a lot of the ground towards the ATH.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agreed in sentiment. I went to my minimum long position (stock-LEAPS) figuring a possible drop to $150. But the relative strength has altered this this, I came off minimum position a week ago via adding to LEAPS. still going to be a tough sled for a while against a koala-bear market. But I think the quality growth stocks like Tesla are starting to grab some traction again
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  • 1/1/2015
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    OMG!! There is a color next to one of my TSLA calls that I have not seen in some time.......could it be......Yes......GREEN!:biggrin:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm the same color... with envy
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Heh, yea. My calls aren't green. They're red enough I should probably pick a new color...necrotic gray?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hey, I am in the same boat with you and Ken. Just had a recent purchase of a June 27 210 go green. The rest of my calls, Sept 220/240; Jan 15 and 16 LEAPS of various denominations are all WAY closer to '0' value than being 'green'. But fellas, we are hopefully on our way to at least salvaging some $ to invest another day:wink:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Beat this (June 270's);

    Calls.JPG

    Luckily, I am now seeing a faint heartbeat in my LEAPS.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    you win
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Close: June 300's -96,6%
    I really knew about the IV countdown, I had hopes, but leasons learned the hard way :crying:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I hope that day comes before opex in June. I bought a lot of June options in feb and early march. Not only tsla but solars as well. Most of them have salvage worth right now. If they all expire worthless I will have more expiring in that day than the total value if my short and mid term options account right now.

    My common account is ok, my leaps account is hurting pretty bad but there is still some time for those, though I'd like to see a rally before June so I can roll the j15's out to j16.

    Solar business has been booming though. 3 sales, likely 4 this week alone.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    How many times?
    hugydy3y.jpg

    That's most of my Detroit auto show gains right there.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Yeah, Same here. My only consolation is that the Detroit Auto gains still paid for a cash cushion and my bleeding LEAPS. Let us hope the Annual Meeting and first England deliveries coupled with ground breaking on Gigas float all our boats up.
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    Open 200.0. Now does it hold?
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    I hope so.
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    Glad to hear that solar business is booming. Do you think it is just a hot streak or are you spotting better trends recently?
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Looking good! How come it�s so quiet here? No cheers... Can�t believe it yet ;)?!

    Any good news today that I haven�t heard of today?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nobody wants to 'jinx' it.:wink:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Great to see us back over $200. Here's to all the Longs...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    In that strategy that I outlined in the other thread. I would be selling some weekly (daily?) $210 options for $0.85 right now against my TSLA J16 LEAPS (or better yet shares). If TSLA closes below $210 tomorrow (more than 90% chance) then you keep the premium. If it goes up past that amount then you roll the calls forward to next week. You can then do the $215's for next week and still pocket an extra dollar on top of the 0.85 you earned.

    The only downside to this strategy is that the stock can go up 15% and you miss out on the run. But TSLA has been going very strong for the past two days, so I see selling $210's for tomorrow as very small risk.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I use his strategy as well to cushion the large long position held. Instead of trying to play the swings, leverage your long position against some safe call selling. It helps provide a dampening so you don't have bear(punn intended) the brunt of expected pullbacks. You don't have to sell as many calls as your long holding if unsure and still want participation in gains. Good strategy for those holding stock/LEAPS IMO
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm guessing that you're "more than 90% chance" of TSLA closing below $210 is just an assumption right? :)

    One thing I think I've learned is that trading options is really all about IV. It's not about catalysts or anything else like that. If there is a big event coming up such as ER, than IV will be really high and so making money off of options is much harder. For this first time my play for this ER was to sell calls and puts and it worked out well. Over the past week or so my guess was we're going to stay pretty flat and I wanted to sell some options but IV was just way to low so I stayed away. The right thing probably would have been to buy calls since they were so cheap. If I would have bought weekly $200's yesterday I'd be up at least 200% today. While we probably will stay below $210 tomorrow there is also a chance we won't :)
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    guest
    Over the long run, you will make a lot more money selling weekly calls than buying weekly calls. No matter what the IV is.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That's true, but if we don't the IV won't move much from the current anyway. But yeah the IV can really play havoc with those short term options. Good point
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You can actually buy and sell volatility in a particular product as if it was a product all by itself. For example, to buy/sell volatility in TSLA you could sell a call option and buy the delta equivalent of shares for that contract at the same time.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have done this strategy before, sometimes you get burned because of TSLA starts a major run....As for tomorrow, we are up 3% and the rest of the market even momo stocks are up slightly, so I think we pull back. Not so sure that I would place $ for a day trade.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah that's true. And sometimes the IV is actually much easier to anticipate than the share price. Excellent point
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Easy money...

    If you had 10 ITM TSLA LEAPS or 1000 shares of TSLA, then by selling the calls I mentioned yesterday you would have made $850 in one day. That is more than the average American makes in a week.

    Yes, there is risk that TSLA shoots up 20% today, but that risk is so remote that even if it happens every now and then, you are still going to come out ahead with this strategy. You wouldn't lose anything either, just limited your upside. On the other hand if TSLA were to close at $212 today, then all you had to do is to roll the options before close to next week's $215's, while still scalping a few more pennies.

    I had training with an ex-trader from Societe Generale (Not Jerome Kerviel :) ) who started his own consulting firm to provide training for investment banks, and he did some proprietary research that shows that selling covered calls will yield you a lot higher return in the long run, than just riding naked stock. In good times, you come out even, but you make significantly better returns during downturns.

    Anyway, who is participating in our $5500 IRA to $1m competition? This starts a week from Monday, and you will have to fund your account ASAP if you want to have it ready by June 2. No hurry though, since anyone can join at any time.

    DaveT and myself are participating. I had to fund my account by April 15 in order to take advantage of 2013 Roth contributions, since I may not qualify for Roth going forward. So all of that money has been burning a hole in my pocket :) Looking forward to it, to see how well we can do.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Having 1000 shares of TSLA would also put your net worth way above that of the average American, so it's not really a useful comparison.

    This is not exactly true. If you're planning on holding your position long term, then having your short calls spike into the money is worse than limiting your upside. You are all of a sudden faced with a choice to liquidate and potentially take a major tax hit, or deplete your cash position to buy the calls back. I sold covered weeklies against my TSLA stock a few times and would absolutely never do it again after the stock spiked 10 points on me unexpectedly. It is a very unpleasant feeling. I imagine it is what shorts feel all the time.

    Can I participate? I funded my Roth IRA back around tax time (only $5400 as that was my contribution limit). I've already started trading in it but my current account value is less than $5400 because solar :crying:.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Are you doing that on here?

    edit: NM. Found the thread.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Strategy is not for everyone. You can always roll short call forward, so no tax implications (although I read about about selling deep ITM calls, since it might trigger taxes).

    Yes, you can compete as long as you have no more than $5,500 on June 2, 2014
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I posted a question about this exact strategy in the newbie thread a while ago, looking for some confirmation that I wasn't deluded. It's good to know it is not considered that bad (in the right circumstances, namely somewhat low volatility.)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    As a chronically long holder of position, I've used it effectively to add some income; best times are lower volatility on a rise in the stock. It's an effect tool to leverage a position to add income with really not a lot of risk given it's covered. plays the house rules, and the house always rules!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sure you can roll forward, but now you continue to hold a short position in a stock you fundamentally believe in, for a longer time frame than you anticipated. And in the case of TSLA you will cannibalize your gains because we have seen the biggest gains occur as swift and often unanticipated movements.

    I'm not trying to pick a fight I just want to present my take on things. I think covered calls are a losing game for a buy-and-hold long term investor. However, I LOVE writing covered calls on volatile short-term holdings (many solars) in my tax advantaged accounts.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Link to said thread please? I searched and couldn't find it. Account is ready though lol
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not sure where to put this but an update article on the Model S in Australia. No date given for first deliveries, just stating that pricing likely in line with elsewhere (same as US price + extra taxes) and that supercharger network planned.

    Tesla Motors Inc Model S Price In Australia Unveiled [REPORT]
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Traveling in South Korea. Young tech savvy population with wealth. Seems ideal tesla territory. Wonder when they will consider
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    TM is supply constrained and looks at China as potentially the biggest consumer of their vehicles worldwide. Would it totally infuriate the largest market if people in Korea got vehicles before people in China? I do not know the geopolitics involved but assume that as the TM-Chinese government mutual respect grows (giving TM preferential importing possibilities) do they chance it? Just asking...I don't know the answer.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looks like Korea is left-hand drive, so it could have been introduced earlier, but I think AIMc has a valid point about which country in Asia you introduce the Tesla to first.

    For a map of left-hand drive countries vs. right-hand drive countries visit:

    File:Countries driving on the left or right.svg - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    To avoid confusion, right-hand-drive autos drive on left side and are blue in the map because they are left-side-of-road countries.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am totally utterly confused, not sure any more which side to drive on:confused: I guess I will just follow the guy in front and hope for the best:cool:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Memorial Day weekend almost over in the US: I dipped into short options successfully last week for the first time in a while after weathering (still weathering) a heavy beat down in my J15s and J16s. While I do not have that 'Detroit Auto Show' feeling that we are about to see a massive positive move I do think we may see $230 in June. Stockholder's Meeting will probably reveal some good news and breaking ground on first Gfactory should occur in June. Anyone going for June calls? (personally looking at some mid to late June 230s for tomorrow)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I dipped my toe back in the water last week too and it was good. I've been thinking a lot about sleepys strategy and am considering trying that. Though tsla seems like a loaded rocket right now so I'm kinda hesitant to try it with tsla. The options prices are pretty good though so some leaps might be in order if I can find somewhere to pull some money from.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes. IV is dropping so call prices becoming more reasonable. If we don't get a quick jump tomorrow I will look at the June 27 220s/230s......maybe try something even shorter term but I will have to sleep on that thought and decide in the AM.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I hope that both of you are right, but it is posts like this that make me want to think the opposite.

    IMO TSLA is at the mercy of the market. I don't think that any catalyst (unless really huge) is going to sway TSLA one way or the other. The market and the momo trade will dictate which way TSLA goes.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks...........Well, now I will really have to sleep on it!:wink::confused:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm sticking with stock and J16 LEAPS just above my min long position for that very reason. The good news is it looks like the momo rotation is largely over (damn Hedge Funds). Bad news is there's no near sight return to that, we're just going to track the S&P largely. Trading range for a while I think. Don't think we're going down a lot either though. In a hold pattern for a while is my best guess
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Today is dissemination date for short interest. Will be interesting to see market sentiment/position.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Anyone have a link to Sleepy/DaveT IRA 5500 competition thread? Can't seem to find it
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was trying to find a link in the thread they were discussing it (short term vs long term investing) but could not. You probably need to PM DaveT or Sleepy.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looks like we are going to do it on a different website, since TMC is not the best avenue for this. Our (or DaveT's, since he brought up the idea) intention for the competition was for it to be a learning experience, so I think that it would be great if every contestant can have his/her own thread to use as a journal for others to learn from. I will try to get some details up either today or tomorrow. It is all about sharing and learning from each other to see what strategies work and which ones don't.

    In the mean time, get your accounts ready and we start trading on Monday 6/2/2014.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Since May 12, TSLA is up 16%, while the market's only been up 4%. That's the optimist's story; the pessimist would note that both TSLA and the NASDAQ are up only 1% so far in Q2.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    yeah- good points; tough call right now- TSLA has some pretty solid resistance at $220; NASDAQ has a ton of healing to do even while S&P at highs. Getting caught in that momo hit put us in a tough bind. The 'real' growth stocks will have to prove themselves out- the blind momentum money rarely returns very quickly. On the other side of that, relative to traditional pasts, there is more underinvested cash right b=now than ever before- interest rates making bonds a poor place for several years likely - so I'm hoping we return to reasonableness and lots of growth money goes into demonstration of growth (rather than speculative). If so, the TSLA and Solars should stand up best over the next few years.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have been hearing a few people say that a lot of money is sitting on the sidelines, but I also see that margin borrowing is at an all time high. So, I am a little confused here, since one would indicate possible upward pressure and the other downside pressure.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    We are at a pivotal point in Tesla's history. Price action going forward will be determined by Gigafactory partnerships.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, it's a really odd situation we find ourselves in.
    It's the worst time to be IN the market (record highs, record leverage of Investment houses, hedge funds just pulled out of high valuation stocks).
    It's the worst time to be OUT of the market (Corporations have record cash but not invested in the market and best balance sheets in decades, net positive cash flows, the economy gaining positive traction, inflation low, interest rates lowest in history, major disruptive tech just entering a long, consumer confidence strong but not overheated, largest age group (22-24) just surpassed baby boomer age)

    I'm a bit confused myself. Best guess is we are at a crossroads and will see a panic sell off correction, but without a recession OR the economy will force monies back into market on a selected basis lowering the relative leverage and grind higher for next few years.

    I open to all opinions myself!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nice points, ken and sleepy.

    I feel like below 200 there are tons of buyers, and above 210 the sellers come out again these days. "Range-bound" is the term some folks are using. Anyone playing short-term calls/puts on this movement?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I picked up a few June 6 212.2 calls this morning. Up 37% already! Just five contracts.

    Makes me wish I had the cajones to place bigger bets!

    BTW. I'm an options noob. What do I do once I'm ITM?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Always have a strategy in mind and an exit plan, that's the first and best rule of options trading imo. Ask away over in the Newbie Options Thread. 37% is not a bad return for a day's work, you might want to take profits now if it's a weekly gamble (and weeklies are indeed gambling).

    Edit: I see you already posted over there and got a good answer from uselesslogin, so good luck.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    In my experience the bond markets are actually the best and most accurate predictors of medium-longer term flows and ebbs. The US 10 year just hit a record low this morning at 2.44% and that's with the Fed tapering the buying AND the market trading around 15 PE. That's why stochastically I'm also still leaning bullish on the market for the next couple of years. Never in history has the market not risen when interest rates rise but under 6%- which is exactly our situation for next 3 years. The 15 PE should correlate to an interest rate around 5-6%, and a economic growth commensurate with inflation rate as a historically balanced investments scenario. We need 3 years of a cranking' economy to get to those interest rates again- and most measurements show that's what we're approaching (and confirmed by the Fed moves). I see 2-3 years minimum of significantly above inflation growth (and new tech helping that with costs kept lower), added to lower but steadily rising interest rates, that both feed bond buying holding those yields down AND concurently stock buying commensurate with the growth and rising inflation hedge. That's the pattern I see setup for the next 2-3 years. Layered on that is the baby boomers buying bonds and blue chip dividend companies and Gen Y buying the next wave growth stocks (TSLA, Solars, etc.). Those are my thoughts currently and mirror some of Siegel's line of thought.

    this interview was before the new record low bond rate hit even
    Why stocks still cheap, despite new highs: Siegel
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Great thoughts and article link, Ken. I keep telling myself that it's logical for us to remain in a bull market while rates are so low, but it's hard to time/endure the "engineered corrections" and "risk-off" dips. Best way I know to bet on this though is to own a pile of Tesla Motors common stock, which I happily do and will for years to come.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    I don't think we see a recession in the next 2-3 years either, but a China economic implosion or some other unforeseen event could trigger one in a blink of an eye.

    The yield curve says no recession is imminent and that is what I use for my tea leaf readings first and foremost. After that, there is a bunch of economic indicators showing that we are not in decline, but actually accelerating (very slowly) economic growth.

    Also, there is a ton of excess capacity in the economy which means that there is a lot of low hanging fruit left to accelerate growth rates. Once we run out of excess capacity and the yield curve goes flat, I will be out of the market for sure and going short. But there is still plenty of time for that to happen.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    roger-that
    yield curve is an excellent correlate;
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I see Jeremy Siegel as a perma-bull and usually avoid his predictions.

    My Forecast for 2008-Kiplinger
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    yeah- I really made my own prediction based on the data I see- His views in that interview correlated to my own currently.

    I'll also note on a more micro level. The play the Hedge Funds made to come out of momentum growth so far is not playing out very well for them as other money is starting to back fill the position. Normally they count on that to induce a broader market pullback which isn't happening because the economic condition is not conducive - I think all they did was provide others the opportunities - but it'll be year end before we know for sure if they moved too early. For certain the bear predictions of bond rates catapulting from Fed tapering aren't currently taking shape.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, I played one this week as a test.

    I sold one covered 215 call on Tuesday near the peak for 283. I bought it back early today for 74 plus the $10 in fees for the round trip.

    I probably could have let it ride but I was happy with the gain and today' spike to 212 could have possibly had me running for the door. It was covered well, however I know how these things can get massive if the bull goes for a run.

    I'm pleased with a $200 gain in one day to test a theory. I feel like I got some if my money back from the dozens of times I was on the other side of that trade.

    Thanks sleepy for sharing your strategies. Now I just need to wait for a nice run up to try it again. (I almost tried it with kndi today but didn't. )

    I saw the pre market action on twtr today and considered buying a one strike otm weekly call and didn't. One look at their chart will tell you how I feel about that decision. Oh well I had too much going on to sit and watch charts all day.
    �
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