Thứ Năm, 27 tháng 10, 2016

Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements part 12

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    5:30 EST
    �
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    guest
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    guest
    Definitely not as brave as you with the options. I'm licking my wounds from Q3, but I am fully invested. Life savings and all...
    �
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    guest
    Thanks guys.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Minimax regret theory? I operate the same way. I never realized this was a real theory until I took a risk analysis class.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regret_(decision_theory)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm weak. Took profits on 20% of my long position.

    I hope I sold too early!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ah, so you're that "weak long" Curt always talks about?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Guilty
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    guest
    Nice to see I'm not the only one going all in unhedged.... TMC Investors discussions is the first site I open on the comp every morning, that's how awesome you all are :)
    �
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    guest
    all in here- currently my only 'hedge' is no short term Options- all LEAPS
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm unhedged in the sense I just have TSLA stock. Q3's ER burned me so bad, I'm not paying the IV on any particular bet. I'll take the IV though and did sell a weekly ATM put a few minutes ago. If things go well, it's free money. Even if things drop $10, it's free money. I think I'm relatively capped on losses as it's hard to see the stock dropping back below $180ish point since that's where it went to over the week after Tesla announced the 6900 deliveries.
    �
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    guest
    I am in the same boat unwilling to pay for IV. I thought about selling a put but no margin on my account so I would have to come up with cash to secure it.
    �
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    guest
    I'd sell calls too, but while I think the downside is capped, I didn't see a call I was willing to sell because god knows what sort of market frenzy can happen, even if it's short lived I could be forced to sell (the stock is LONG and I don't want to reset that clock).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Same here, brother.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am 50% unhedged calls ranging from this week to March22, 45% LEAPS and 5% bull call spreads, one bull out spread and a few weekly 170 puts I bought after the recent f***. Pretty much all bullish! Picked up another 15% today on the dip. I am not as stressed as Q3 for some reason. Not sure if it is my gut telling me TSLA will beat or because of the cushion I created with the Jan 14 pop.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And here ... :biggrin:
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    guest
    I'm going to be in a meeting during today's call. Will someone be posting highlights as they occur? I'll just keep refreshing my screen. (Pleeeease?)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I too was struck by how expensive options were, so that led me to cash in all my option holdings (and a covered call) and hope to buy back in after the dust settles and premiums drop. I'm still nominally long with TSLA common stock.

    My feeling is more or less in line with DaveT and his spreadsheet: non-GAAP earnings of 0.29 per share or so and GAAP loss of a few cents. Tesla has a history of being minimalist with its reports and I don't expect that to change. I think they'll guide for 35,000 deliveries in 2014 with demand exceeding supply. The promised announcement of the gigafactory will include the location and partners, but no details. The market's response is unpredictable, but based on the above my median expectation is as close to "meh" as possible: 5-10 points up followed by 10-15 points down then life goes on.

    Good luck to all, especially those with more courage than I to go all in on a bullish outcome. I hope your risk is rewarded and you are able to buy many Model S and Model X with your winnings!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
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    guest
    Good luck to everyone. Hope for the best. I wish everyone make good money.
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    Well, went ahead and made that bull put spread I was thinking about. 170/185. I was expecting maybe ~-5% if earnings go badly (since I think there will be less movement than normal due to preannouncing), and we just had -5% today, so I feel like 185 might be a floor. But you never know, and I don't have the margin for naked puts anyway, haha.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So, 4.5% drop going into earnings.

    1) yay, that means some anxiety is out and more results will be considered postive or
    2) the market is saying something
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have a hard time remembering a time when TSLA didn't drop a bit in the day or 2 leading up to earnings. Am I wrong on this?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It was up on the day of last time... maybe that is a good thing we are different.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I see a trend. "Buy the rumor", "sell right before the news", "buy the news".

    Grabbed another 200 call. Below 194 was kinda nice. (I hope).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was calm all day.. up until now! I think like everyone else I am confident and excited but Q3 is still haunting me a little. Currently have all my Tesla shares (don't plan on selling for a very long time anyways) and Solarcity calls. Lets go Team Elon!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Same here, I was all relaxed all day, but now I'm a little shaky. It's going to be a long wait for the report to get published.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I would like to see the 'war room' of one of these companies before ER. If the stock seems to take a dip prior to ER do you add some 'good' news to help your investors. News you might hold tll later if your stock was going up?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Holy crap, all the shorts were trickling in orders and then right at the bell, someone just shoved a buy order for 92,014 shares into the market. Good times.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
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    Wild swings early in AH but overall good. Liking the "very soon" news about Gigafactory? In 90 minutes? :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My oh my, Google AH numbers are all over the place, 205, 202, 198, 205. Driving me crazy!

    edit: Everything seems to be okay though! Good revenue, non-GAAP EPS beat, 35k guidance and Gigafactory news!

    DaveT - I wish you weren't right about the ZEV credits :(
    �
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    guest
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    Forcasting 28% margins for Q1 very good... 7400 production and 6400 deliveries... again good... very nice forward looking statements... Gigafactory annoucment within a month? YAY

    - - - Updated - - -

    The wisper numbers of $.30 eps were almost on the spot.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    Isn't 28% forecast by Q4 of '14? Rather than Q1?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    206 and counting in aftermarket. Today's drop was not warranted. Good call all who bought in. If Elon and Deepak "add some flavor" (analyst's favorite expression) during the call tomorrow could be a fun day.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My bad... you are correct. Still a gd forcast. I bet they achieve it by Q3
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    $210...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My protective put may RIP!! :biggrin:
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    guest
    I can't wait for margin calls to come in tomorrow
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    guest
    Over $210! congrats!! Lets hope the call helps boost this over $220 :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So... About that $280 party... Please email me those free tickets and hotel stay for the next get tesla together :D
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I love you TSLA!! (As long as it holds), you just paid for my Model X next year!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Congrats everyone, TSLA is knocking on 220's door!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So last sentence is very interesting, regarding Gigafactory: "This will also allow us to address the solar power industry�s need for a massive volume of stationary battery packs."

    I read it as us=Tesla. Tesla will own and operate the Gigafactory. The market for energy storage may soon surpass the car market???
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Congrats all TSLA longs! Hoping the stock can add to its gains during/after the conference call. I was sitting mostly on LEAPS, but decided to buy 1 $225 call for next week. :smile:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It seems like this report wasn't very exciting - I wonder what would have happened if they guided for 40,000 vehicles this year! Whatever - even if I don't understand it, I won't complain about the stock going up! Congratulations to those who went all in.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, I would like to say thank you to everyone here. I can't even think right now. I wish I had a quick way to estimate the value of all or our contracts.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This made me LOL!


    Good Riddance!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    $221 and climbing. My goodness.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Anyone want to buy my weekly 170 puts? I give you good price.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Johan - that is what i have been saying for quite a while, but a lot of smart people have said that the battery storage market is significantly smaller than the the auto market, but I digress...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Can I just say once again how much I love this forum? Thanks to the big posters for their insights. 280 here we come :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There seems to be this cascading reaction where short-sellers of the stock are desperately buying it back in the after market, for fear of a further price increase. I wish there was a name for this phenomenon. Oh, I remeber: Squeeze baby squeeze!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow, up 30 points and climbing.

    Very soon I achieve 10-bagger status with my investment. No plans to sell until 100-bagger achievement level unlocked!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    These good puts. brand new. famous brand. you buy, no?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If it's the future for Tesla you do not disgress. And while it may be smaller now let's talk in just a few short years, right? And who else is there in this emerging market??? I haven't heard of anyone else planning on building a GIGAFACTORY (love that name).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Party like it's may 2013!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am going to have to pay so much in capital gains tax.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    same here ;-).... I think I'll have a late night party here in Germany.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I admit I'm baffled as usual by the stock movement. It basically came in right where whisper numbers said and everyone should have been expecting from 6900 deliveries. The ER had all the things that seemed to be expected over the last few weeks with margin and such.

    Seems a good reason for the stock to recover what it lost today, but not sure why it's going bonkers since there wasn't any surprise in the ER. There wasn't any surprise in the Q3 ER either and it dropped like a stone.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I will be buying the Tesla store in Austin a lunch/dinner platter for all of the amazing work that they have done to make this possible - I move that other satisfied investors do the same!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Feel free to transfer some of that money my way... I'm still carrying over losses from 2007-2008 :)

    - - - Updated - - -

    Its clear. Look at the AH volume. just over 2.5m shares.... someone is caught w/ their pants down and is trying to cover their ass before they are out of a job. I'll be surprised if we hold over $220 tomorrow.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Best $3,500 I ever lost!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am going to stick with the technical argument. The stock was spring loaded to go up and was looking for an excuse to do so. Anything from the good news menu would suffice.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I had sold 250 shares when it hit 199 a week or two ago. Then I regretted it. After taxes, I calculated that I could buy back in at 189 and not loose anything. But, when I saw the stock come down before closing today, I decided to buy half of them back at 194 just in case it went up again. Man am I glad I did!!!! Woot!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So the big question is what happens tomorrow morning. With the massive AH volume, it's obvious someone is covering like there's no tomorrow. How many? 2.5 million shares is 10% of the short interest, in half an hour.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well. We have to hope that all of us hold onto our shares an let the squeeze continue.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If you can get the institutional investors on board, then we'll have a wild ride. Sadly, I don't think TMC has the ownership stake to pull it off.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I promise to hold on to all 100% of my 1 share that I hold and will not sell for at least a decade.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That would be the small short from Doug Kass, no? :-D

    WSJ Money Beat - Doug Kass: I AM SHORTING TESLA blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014� $TSLA (Twitter / DougKass: WSJ Money Beat - Doug Kass: ...)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Excellent! That will result in such a squeeze that your D$280, March 31st prediction will come to fruition. Dave (and I, if he lets me contribute) will be buying that plane ticket and dinner in Cali.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Oh, this is too funny. :biggrin:



    I don't even want to guess what else is on that list...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am planning to hold all my 1000 shares for at least 3 days for the short squeeze, Depends on how good the Conference call is.
    Don't want to lose my free Tesla Model S, But allure of Another gain is making me not sell right now.
    So, in short, my decision depends on call.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't even want to guess what else is on that list...[/FONT][/COLOR][/QUOTE]

    I actually have a copy of his list right here, just updated. So, his TSLA short is actually #4. #3 is as follows:

    "Once I stubbed my toe on a chair as I was walking by, so I stuck my thumb in a doorway and slammed the door on it as hard as I could. Miraculously, my toe no longer hurt."
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeh. I've lowered it in park before. As soon as you start moving, it goes back up.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I've only got 5.8.4, and that lowers in park.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I actually have a copy of his list right here, just updated. So, his TSLA short is actually #4. #3 is as follows:

    "Once I stubbed my toe on a chair as I was walking by, so I stuck my thumb in a doorway and slammed the door on it as hard as I could. Miraculously, my toe no longer hurt."[/QUOTE]

    Lol good one! Congrats all! Viva Tesla! :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Now that you mention it again, I'm a bit surprised there is no comment about 6.0 or NHTSA anywhere in the letter. Elon talked a lot about 6.0 in his Europe trip. So, it seems there is STILL a lot of exciting news to come: Gigafactory, NHTSA, 6.0, actual numbers from China, etc.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    They just can't control the NHTSA report. Nothing to say about it, really.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Does anyone know of a website that I can enter all my option contracts and type in a date and the price of the stock and it will calculate the total gain / loss for each option?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    How could you? Extrinsic value=time value for any option is highly subjective and can't really be calculated, only estimated (guesstimated) in advance. Just look at what will happen now after the call, with the IV crush.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
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    guest
    I have good news and bad news. Much of my TSLA is in my IRA and I'm retired, so I don't have to pay the taxes until I withdraw. The bad news is that I don't get any long term capital gains benefit.
    My limit order is on common stock, so I doubt it will sell before tomorrow morning, and who can guarantee that the price will still be high then?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Options profit calculator
    Option Price Calculator

    The latter allows you to modify the individual parameters and see what the "fair" value should be.

    Edit: ah, you'd like to add all your options. I can share an Excel sheet I have for that, but it only computes for day of expiry.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, I sold 60 shares at $200 about the same time. Bought 61 back when it was down to about 194 a while back and another single share at $193.9 when it just dropped (whenever it did). I don't understand anything of what happened today. But at least I've got 62 shares from the set of trades.

    I was hoping that like the fat man with the one thin mint in Monty Python's "Meaning of Life" that would make the stock explode.

    I don't know if it'll carry over to tomorrow, but I'm hoping.
    �
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    guest
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    guest
    i'll be happy to join
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's not actually that bad. I only hold LEAPS in my taxable account, and I could just exercise them (2016) and hold on for a long time. I was smart enough to put most of my medium term and additional LEAPS (2015) in my TFSA :d. I've learned a lot in the last few quarters.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am listening thru Seeking Alpha on my Iphone
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm an options guy, but I finally decided to officially make myself a shareholder and bought 5 shares of TSLA during the conf call ;) It's not giving me excellent delta or anything, but I didn't want to buy the symbolic 1 share because of commission rates so went with 5 shares :) Majority of my delta comes from LEAPs + March options so this is really so that if anyone asks there is no asterisk next to me claiming to be a shareholder ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Welcome, Mario. You won't regret it.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Is there a standard or advisable range for the delta you should have on your account? Or is it totally up to your risk tolerance? My net delta was very large since I initiated all my positions for this call. I'm happy about the results, but it was crazy to see all the swings these past few weeks.

    On another note, I'm currently working in Sydney, Australia. I'm pretty certain the Model S will do amazing here. I walk to work every day through downtown and see so many high end cars, it's actually surprising to me. I know there are usually a lot of nice cars in big cities, but there are almost no clunkers driving around here and a very high number of luxury cars. Any insight into this by locals? There is also quite a bit of sun here; offsetting energy consumption for superchargers will be a cake walk.

    Oh and this time change is getting exhausting. Market opens at 1:30 am here so my nights have been late plus I'm usually setting an alarm in the morning to catch the close too.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    tolerance for loss vs goal for gain really. I take something of an equivalency to stock. If I'm willing to risk X shares of ownership, I convert that to net Delta for the Options (these are all LEAPS, not designed for short term loss/gains).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Holy moly up almost 25 points after hours. :-0

    The shorts are going to lose their shirts, again.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks for the offer. I whipped up a spreadsheet earlier to just calculate the intrinsic value of the options, to show me my profit, and calculate the % gain. A lot in the 300-500% range. :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Dollars, not basis points... Big difference

    But tomorrow should be a bloodbath for shorts. A good indication is the CC. You had John Lovallo still ask about FCF which is totally useless in this respect. Some just don't get it.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    at what point are those who have been shorting and loosing everything all along going to start blaming the bear analysts for steering them wrong, again and again and again! At some point, you'd think the analysts would just admit that TSLA is an anomaly and they have no idea how to guide investors on the stock and leave it at that.

    I'm feeling pretty good about my moves over the last week, sold during the occurrence last week, held out till today, and jumped back in near the low of the dip today minus the profits I knew I didn't want to risk, and then POW!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hey, if they liked the short at $198 (*ahem*), they're gonna love it at $218...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It will be interesting to see the amount of short interest in February: Feb 14 reported 2/26
    Feb 28th reported 3/11
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Until most people get the correct facts about Tesla and it's products, I believe there will continue to be significant numbers of investors attempting to make $ shorting the stock.

    When Macrumors posted an article about Apple possibly talking with Tesla about a merger, it started quite a fight in the comments section, with the naysayers getting virtually all the facts wrong. If the generally tech-savvy community of the Apple faithful is like this, imagine what the general public or people in financial industries are thinking.

    As a result, I think the stock has a long way to run. If TSLA has rocketed up like this while it's still an early adopter item, it's going to be absolutely insane once the broader public figures it out.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Assuming you have some in-the-money calls for the end of the week, why didn't you just hold on to a few of them through Friday, and get a better cost basis? Oops, maybe I just answered my own question; you said 5 SHARES, I was thinking 5 contracts...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It is the right time to say a big thank you to everyone here providing true and/or valuable information.
    Same as with Q3 report, but as I imagine most people here, including me, prefer the outcome of this Q4 report;)
    Hey, this forum has almost become my second (virtual) home!
    Thank you, guys!
    And a successful year 2014 for Tesla!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    gym7rjm, welcome to sun citi. There are multiple reasons that people drive fairly new cars here:
    Poor public transport, commute to work of few hours is very common, outdoor living with lots of weekend driving to nice destinations, beach trips, low density housing (meaning suburban sprawl which requires personal transport). Incomes are high, pushing most employed people into middle class. Unemployment rate is low. There are a lot of cars under lease or company cars. Each adult in the household is often a car owner. Even people on welfare can drive fairly new cars as cars are affordable. It is true that there are hardly any clunkers on the road, it is not cost effective to own a clunker.

    I often mention Tesla car to whomever I am talking to however I can count in low single digits people that have some vague idea of TMC. Back in June I managed to recruit one more Tsla investor here, by recommending the car and the stock. Once Tesla opens showroom, I expect the news of a good car to spread like wildfire.

    There is a lot of sun here all year around, but check the roofs when you drive around, not too many panels are installed. Until recently, investments in roof solar panels were subsidized by the government and even with the subsidies the investment was not very cost effective. That might change if electricity prices go up or panel prices and installation costs go down. Solar city model of financing might do well here if they ever decide to expand their business downunder.

    I hope you enjoy your stay here. My recommendation for a good time is to get involved in any outdoor water activity, preferably deep in, on top of or just next to a body of water.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Anyone have suggestions as to what to do with options that expire this week that are ITM as a result of eR? should I offload at the opening bell?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I wouldn't be in too much of a hurry to unload them. They have intrinsic value, so if the stock price remains constant, they will perhaps lose a little value. But the writers of those options (some of them uncovered or highly leveraged) need to take action. That's what a short squeeze is all about. There's pressure on the stock to go up both from call writers and short sellers, in which case you might be better waiting a bit.

    Of course if the stock price drops, all that goes out the window.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Than k you.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If I had the answer to that question, I would be retired by the end of the trading day.

    In all seriousness though, you need to make that decision on your own. That is why I stayed away from weeklies this time and played TSLA with longer term calls. I can sit back, relax, and enjoy the show.

    When things start getting frothy I might sell some covered calls, but I don't expect to be doing that today unless we get close to $230.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    :) Fortunately, most of my other calls are non-weeklies/LEAPS - I made a last minute decision to play a weekly :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If you want to sell, but you want to hold at the same time then sell a higher strike price against it. That way you will cash out 70%-80% of the value and still be able to participate in some upside up to 120%-130%.

    If you sell an even higher strike price then you might cash out 50% of value and participate in potential upside to 150%, but the risk is bigger and the guaranteed profit is smaller from cashing out.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks. BTW, thanks for all the insight - great google+ last night.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sold a weekly put credit spread when stock at 211. Sold Feb14 210 put for $4.18 and bought Feb14 205 put for $2.28 for credit of $1.90. Max gain $1.90, max pain $3.10. Expires tomorrow.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nice income play Dave.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Trimmed my long-term position a bit. I am getting seriously uncomfortable at these price levels. I have now reduced my long-term position, purchased at 34.5, by approximately 30% in terms of total share count. This latest sale is a 12.5% reduction of my current position (let's just call it a prudent hedge). My previous sale was at $153/share.

    Probably would have sold a bit more if I didn't have to pay 28% tax on the profits. Ouch @ Norwegian tax law.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My weeklies at 215, 220 and 230 were looking much more juicy when we were at the short lived $225 yesterday AH. I want to see that $225 again!!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Quickly dropping back to 200, Elon should have announced the bfactory news yesterday, now everyone is waiting...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ok, gap filled, is this the reversal? I hope so, I grabbed a few more calls near the bottom, I'm either a fool or lucky. :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Does anyone know when Elon will give more information about this factory?
    What is meant with "very soon"?
    Thanks guys - hoping that 225� will come soon :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    he said "next week" so probably mid to end of next week IMHO.
    �
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