Thứ Sáu, 28 tháng 10, 2016

TSLA Investor Discussions part 9

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    OK, going to try to not derail the thread too much and draw the wrath of the mods...

    Jon Stewart's show is one of mostly show and little substance. There are plenty of incredibly sophisticated portfolio managers that dislike what Cramer teaches, you don't need to stoop down to a talk show host to find a reason to not listen to Cramer. IMO this is as bad as taking advice on whether or not to buy a Tesla from Top Gear.

    That said, there are a lot of people worth listening to that like Cramer a lot; and there is no denying that he has done fantastically well trading stocks on the average in his life. Does he get it wrong sometimes when he picks specific companies? Absolutely, and he'll be the first to admit it; but on the whole, I believe he knows what he is talking about, and there is a lot to be learned from the strategies that he teaches on his show and in his books (for instance, those of you who have trouble wrapping your head around options might want to pick up a copy of Getting Back to Even). There is certainly a lot of showmanship in the way he presents that material, but that just makes these incredibly boring topics all the easier to consume and therefore accessible to the general public.

    I've read a lot of investing and personal finance material since graduating college, and learned a lot more the hard way. While I wouldn't say that reading and watching Cramer is the be-all-and-end-all of investing, it is what got me interested in the first place and was a terrific "investing 101". I haven't watched his show in a quite some time now, but there is no doubt that much of what I still do today has evolved from the basic strategies I first adopted from him. When I put aside the buzzers and silly costumes, and reflect on the core principles of investing that he teaches: diversification; buy and homework; sell on the way up, buy on the way down; no market orders; believe in the fundamentals, pay attention to the technicals; etc., etc. I find that I still largely agree with them, and they have served me very, very well.

    My problem with Cramer as it pertains to TSLA is simply that I think he has dismissed it out of hand without doing the work that he himself prescribes. I think this comes from his bias toward Nat Gas as a transportation fuel (he seems absolutely convinced this is the future). I don't really blame him for not doing the work though, TSLA is small and arguably not worth his time, but then I think he should admit that he doesn't know enough about the company to make a call on it and let it go (as he has done countless times with other small speculative companies that callers ask about).

    I think that if he did the homework that he taught me to do, he'd come to the same conclusion that I came to, and he'd recommend buying it.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    so when do I get to see that Roadster? ;)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    An expert who knows less than you on the subjects you are familiar with makes you wonder what else he is embellishing.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Stewart often points out hypocrisy with humor and sarcasm, doesn't make it any less valid. As you say, Stewart is simply pointing out what many others think about Cramer as well. You seem to have more of a problem with the messenger than the message in this case.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    NigelM, Thank-you for this.

    I replied with quote on purpose, very factual, clear and concise. The only thing I would add is the 5000 & 20000 cars numbers are "Very Conservative Numbers" as quotes many time by Elon. One other thing, watch the reservations, they will go up in flames (like the Falcon 9) when people can touch it, drive it, feel it, kiss it...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    One other thing....

    Tesla is very conservative accounting-wise by putting so much of R&D to expense. One would think it would show a better view on it's financial situation if they were capitalizing R&D. Intangible assets like patents and processes come from R&D.

    Change this over conservative accounting rule and you have a very different P&L picture.

    In fact, they are conservative in everything they say and do. I like that. They are pros.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My squeeze scenario is much higher then that, my preposterous sale order will be in the system this week, I am not saying what my number is ;)

    And one thing I will try to remember is not to push the sale button before a good 40M share traded after the start of the squeeze, that number is for 25M shorts and let's say 15M of regular action. It could take some time, 10 days at 4M? 20 days of 2M? 4 days of 10M?

    We will get all emotional but we have to hold. Be patient.

    It's coming on Monday, that's my guess.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow, I'm so glad I sold everything yesterday just as it plateaued.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think you'll find that was a mistake.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    A mistake to be able to buy again in the dip? 8^D
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Explanation: If a company can capitalize R&D costs then it comes off the P&L (suddenly the profit situation improves!) and moves to the balance sheet as an asset (hey, the balance sheet looks better too!).

    IMO (and there is some certain amount of greyness in the regs), US GAAP doesn't really allow R&D costs to be capitalized. You can't capitalize those expenses because a failed concept would have no future value, and research has indeterminate outcomes. Arguably with a wait list of ~11,000 reservation holders Tesla could point to future value but if it started to look too much like a massaging of the figures then they would take serious heat from the analysts. You can capitalize (some) development investments after the concept has been proven but then you have to figure out amortization and accounting within product costs.

    I'm with *Steph* on this one and definitely prefer a conservative approach. This could be a source of hidden value for TSLA in the future......Major R&D expenses are already absorbed so volume sales should provide fantastic margins.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You are going to need to be very nibble to do that (I think). Are you day trading?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Let's just say I don't like to be too far from my stocks. 8^D
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Bonnie1194, the reason my number is extremely high (I mean very very very high) is because of computers....

    In the beginning of a squeeze, let's say at 45$, automatic buys kick-in, they will snap all programed sales. But what if the only pre-programed sale left is mine? Computer, dumb as a chicken, will pick-up my shares.

    Other than that, I'm waiting patiently.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ya think? ;)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    so did you buy at that $31.50 dip?


    nice
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    V
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I did. Now I'm going to take a nap and forget everything that just happened. 8^D
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well done. That's a lot of risk though to make 3%. Too nimble for me. I get called into a meeting at the wrong time and I'd end up owning 0 shares when TSLA is up 10%.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I look at it this way... I have to catch up to the rest of you who got in early. I want to make enough to buy an X next year.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm not saying they could or they should capitalize. As an investor, I look at numbers and I like to see everything on the expense side, that is future value.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wish you luck on that.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thank you.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Don't try to catch-up. The train did not leave yet.

    Monday will be too late.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    To Zack.

    Zack, let me explain some tidbits about what I think on your move...

    But first let me set the stage for you.

    I saw Tesla a few years back. Surfing the net like I do sometime, just looking for news and fun things. At that time, I said to myself: "That's really cool and I would like to buy one but, no money, no candy" and then I turned the page.

    Last November, I saw Tesla on the news again. This time I went deeper in my research. I spent lots of time, countless hours. The more I found out, the more I wanted to know. Not only I found the Model S absolutely amazing, then came the model X! Then I found Elon Musk. That story by itself is completely out of this world. Then I found SpaceX, followed last month launch, the rendez-vous with ths ISS, the landing and delivery to NASA.

    Then I found Solar city with their extraordinary business model and concept. Then, being a former accountant, I now focus on tech stuff, I looked at all numbers, red all financials info, I made spreadsheets, analyzed the numbers, crunched them until death come.

    I found nothing.

    Negative, that is. Zack. Everything I saw was mind blowing. Out of this world Zack.

    Can you name one. Just one story like this one? Just one Zack.

    You can't?

    Me neither.

    This story (and more) will be reveled to the world this Friday. (I assume after market close)

    The stock is TSLA and is the most shorted stock on NASDAQ.

    Zack, dear Zack.

    I don't want to tell you want to do, but. I know what I am doing.

    Good luck with your decision making.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's a marketing event, no announcements, no financials, there's no market requirement that dictates it should be after market close. Tesla is even webcasting the event so it's available to all investors simultaneously.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, if it is during market hours, we will get a glimpse of what will happen on Monday!

    I bet after hour trading will be a tad busy this weekend ;)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What I don't get is how a squeeze can drive the price higher in a few days than it's reasonably expected to be by the end of the year. Will they be panicking that they'll be forced to deliver in too short of a time for them to let the price drop closer to normal again.

    I guess I'll put a sell limit in this week, just in case. Why next Monday? To you really think Elon's announcement is going to be that "earth shattering"?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    From a marketing perspective, I'd time it for late afternoon anyway: Webcasting so that the east coast can see it not too late and I can also have lots of factory employees clapping and cheering before they head off home. OTOH, Tesla doesn't often take the east coast into consideration....:frown:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If the price is driven up high enough, shorts can be forced to sell.

    Some of this is self inflicted (lots of money managers have rules for how much they can lose on a trade before they cut their losses) and some of this is because the broker forces them to sell (especially if they are trading on margin). Remember, when you are shorting a stock, your potential losses are infinite (just like when you buy, your potential gains are infinite). The broker that is loaning you money to short TSLA reserves the right to make you sell at some point, before you lose everything and can't pay them back.

    The end result is that during a short squeeze, traders are forced to pay prices that they don't actually want to pay to get out of their positions. This then causes more traders to reach the levels at which they decide to or are forced to close their positions.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Could be. May as well be ready for it. The sell order is to take advantage of probable computer panic. Otherwise, It's better to wait and see, the panic will be on the short side, not ours.

    When the stock get to let's say forty-five-ish, smart shorts will start to exit with dumb long selling. Smart long will sell last and dumb shorts will buy last.

    Let's see who got some balls.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow, maybe they thought about the east coast after all.....

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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    We have the answer... After market close.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And it begins(continues)!
    A co-worker of mine (EE) finally bought some shares @ $29. He'd been waiting and waiting and watching and kept almost buying at some of the dips and missed the last $26+ and $27+
    He is pretty confident that EV for cites is the way to go & I've kept him updated on what is going on since Oct. I think he'll be a future Tesla owner ... it's just a matter of time, he has stock now.
    All of our electrical engineers and IT are pretty excited (and a little jealous this weekend!)
    market is all pretty good today.. keep it up
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't think the Friday deliveries are going to have a big effect on the stock price. Shorts already believe it'll happen. The rise this week is just some Johnny Come Latelys getting in, and the stock could easily drop to 30 next week.

    Here are the prime movers I see coming:

    1) Elon's "Blow your mind" supercharging/battery swap announcement.
    2) Any quality/recall issue, especially as it gets blown up by the press/bloggers.
    3) Tesla looking to be on track for 5000 cars by end of year.
    4) Reservation conversion rate
    5) Reservation backlog
    6) Q2 stats

    #1 happens next month.
    #2 can happen any time. It's unlikely all the cars this year will be perfect. I'm expecting normal things, but even those could get blown up out of proportion with corresponding big drops the stock price.
    #3 won't be a known until Halloween
    #4 won't be known until about Halloween
    #5 is ongoing
    #6 will be bad, but hard to say how much the market is anticipating that

    #3 may be what brokerages are being conservative about, but #2 is what the shorters are looking for. Tesla's volatile enough that keeping trailing stops tight is impossible. If you want, the game here is to sell at the first sign of trouble and buy back before everyone realizes it isn't that bad - but that's a dangerous game. For myself, I've got some shares that I've had for several months, so I'll be holding those through any dips since I want the long term capital gains later. I also have some synthetic long option plays that I'm looking to be profitable this year.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's doin' the Dow again today.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Halloween is just around the corner.

    Short term thinking?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I wouldn't be surprised if we get a small spike from those who buy shares after seeing the Tesla in multiple news outlets. The launch should be covered by every major network, will probably be on the front of Yahoo/AOL/Google News, articles should be in thousands of newspapers, radio stories, etc. "Tesla did what doubters said couldn't be done", "Tesla delivers new 300 mile electric sedan early, paying back DOE loans early", "Tesla quelling range anxiety fears with their Super Charger network", "SpaceX founders other disruptive business".

    Stories like this should get the a lot of those who don't follow EV news to login to their ETrade account and buy some shares, which can only help the stock.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You're assuming the press itself will turn objective, or even optimistic. That's unlikely, IMHO.

    I think it'll be more like:

    "Tesla delivers only 12 cars and only to company insiders."

    "Tesla reducing options available to first customers." (no gray interior, no std suspension, no aero wheels).

    "Tesla frantically working to upgrade Model S interior." (Opportunity Console)

    "Tesla scared to have their cars reviewed."

    "Steve Jurvetson has bad taste in music." (see screenshot of his dashboard in another thread on TMC).


    OK, so I'm pushing it with that last one, but you get the drift. The press will continue to portray Tesla as they always have until something comes along to change their minds. Maybe Elon will blow their minds with his supercharging/swap announcement, but that's a month away. Until then, it's going to be bash EV makers as usual. And, Q2 results won't help matters.

    But, as others have said, we just need a bit of patience and little luck.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Financial Analysts will see this as a positive (even if some TMC members don't), they hate excess SKU's and love simplicity in the manufacturing process.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    true; although now you can help design your own center console ;
    that's a pretty cool idea I think
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Did Tesla say when they will make a Supercharger announcement? I must have missed the mention of a date. I was hoping they'd discuss it on June 22 so I can figure out if the Model S will do what I need it to or not...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The Supercharger network will definitely happen. The question is really when, where, and how quickly.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Elon said it will all make sense on 6/22. I doubt he we leave any room for unanswered questions. I did not see a date either. My opinion is that they will announce all details and roll up dates on Friday.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was always under the impression the supercharger stuff would be discussed in July. Can't remember where I heard that though.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think the notion is that computers will be told to buy (to cover the shorts) at a certain price, and there'll be a panic as all those programmed orders try to execute at once, driving the price way up.

    HOWEVER, I don't think that the delivery of cars numbers 3 through 13, or 3 through 23, is going to have any effect on the market. Everyone but the know-nothing gas-heads knows the delivery will happen, and that's already built into the price. The event will be exciting for all of us EV fanatics, and for all those waiting for an S of their own. But for the market, it will just be confirmation of what is already known.

    As more cars are delivered, and the line is gradually speeded up, confidence will as slowly pick up and share price will slowly rise (amid the same volatility as always) and if there are no serious problems, the stock will be higher once full production is reached and continues (knock on wood!) to show a high degree of reliability.

    I think it's just plain silly to expect a big spike or the start of a short squeeze on Monday. (Unless the DOW is up, in which case TSLA will follow.)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    DJI futures are down a bit tonight.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The combination of 700 test drive reports + 10 deliveries could have a larger effect that just the 10 deliveries. Even more so if the first 10 owners deliver extensive my-first-weekend reports. I'm saying "could", not "will". ;)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My opinions are worth exactly what you paid for them. :) But they are my opinions.

    And FWIW, apparently the entire market was way up yesterday (Tuesday) on hopes the Fed would take favorable action. As always, TSLA went along. We like to think everyone trading TSLA is thinking about Friday, when for the most part they're just watching the market.

    Off topic: Why am I posting at 1:00 a.m.? Sometimes I wake up in the middle of the night and cannot get back to sleep again for a while. Getting old is the pits.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
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    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't usually like to brag, but I F'ing nailed this. =)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    BWAAhHAAHAA

    $34.20
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow. 1 million shares in the first 30 minutes of trading... Somebody is buying...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    wow, what the heck. glad i got in :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just wondering when we hear again from JP.....
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just yesterday he was re-insisting that Tesla will need to do a capital raise next quarter. His rationale is that every Sig model delivered costs Tesla $15K in cash. $100K revenue, $40K deposit, so only $60K cash coming in (since the $40K was presumably spent a while ago). With profit at most 25%, that means each Sig costs Tesla $75K in cash to build, but only $60K new cash comes in.

    Nigel - any comments on that?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Cars with lots of options tend to have better margins, so I'd think the Sigs would be better than 25% margin.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think that's part of what Nigel already commented on. I don't see anything new compared to what we discussed already.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, the 25% target is when they reach full production of 20k a year. That tells me that the cars being delivered this year will be well in excess of 25% margin. Once the 40kWh, no air suspension, and other cheap options become available, the profit from each car should get dragged down on average.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    1. A capital raise is typically done to improve the balance sheet and to fund large investments. A capital issue to fund current liabilities makes no sense in Tesla's case as their current liabilities will be reduced as they start to convert reservation deposits to revenues - see point 4. below. Unless Tesla wants to start some major new project it seems very unlikely they'll raise capital for cash flow...in the worst case scenario Tesla will end Q2 with some $250-300m cash resources available.

    2. This idea that Tesla will only receive $60k per car against costs of $75k per car is just plain nonsense. Let's assume that the car costs $75k - that cost is made up of variable costs (parts and labor) and fixed costs (overhead and amortization). Some of those costs are already paid for (e.g. factory prep) or capital amortization (e.g. tooling). So the truth is that IN TOTAL (JP are you reading this?) Tesla has received $100k for a car that costs $75k to build; they just received payment in two tranches, the deposit and the final payment. Now Tesla has to sell a number of cars before they amortize all those investment costs but that's no secret and doesn't require them to raise new capital.

    3. Let's say for a minute that JP is right (and he's not!) and that Tesla loses $15k cash flow from each of the first 1,000 cars. That a negative cash flow impact of $15 million - so what? They have plenty of cash ($387m in cash resources at the end of Q1) and liquidity looks great even assuming they have no other sources of income.

    4. Conversion of deposits to revenue will improve the balance sheet as it reduces current liabilities! Anybody who spouts like JP must know that Working Capital is calculated by subtracting Current Liabilities from Current Assets; ergo if you reduce your current liabilities your working capital will increase. Take a look at the 10-Q, Part 1., Item 1.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
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    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    NigelM - you're the man. Thanks for the explanation and great links!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    We've been discussion the price of the gen 3 car. I've always been thinking of a price around 37 000 which makes it below 30 000 with the tax credit, but here Ahuja says: "We know very well, that when we go to our next product, which is generation three cars, we cannot rely on these tax credits to get us to affordable price points." Does this mean that they plan on making a car for 30 000 without the tax credit?

    (They can't rely on the tax credit because every manufacture only gets the tax credit for 200 000 cars)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    He'd get in big trouble (with investors and analysts) if he started making political predictions in any case. Basing future business outlook on temporary tax breaks would be political forecasting and not prudent.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Is it possible to call a $39,999 dollar car a "$30,000" car? How did Tesla talk about the price point of the Model S before pricing was set, as a $50K car?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    exactly right-
    I think as long as they end up in the $30s they'll be fine from a market perspective; That's a pretty strong sweet spot for upper end of mid-market. Gen 4 will need some battery tech advancement due in 5-8 years allowing attack of the remaining market sub $20k starting; They may choose not to even go there, but I suspect they might
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    $30,000 - $32,000 = "...for just $30,000"
    $33,000 - $34,000 = "Just over $30,000"
    $35,000 - $38,000 = Quote the exact number, e.g. "$35,000" or "$36,000"
    $39,000 - $40,000 = "Under $40,000"
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Pretty sure they just said the price with the tax credit included --> less than 50k.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm guessing a $30k starting will be too challenging with a 25% profit margin. My bet would be sub $35k start and optioned up to low $50s where the S starts. All without tax incentives, which may or may not still be in place
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not a direct link from Tesla but pricing was discussed in this thread back in 2007. Was said to cost less than $50k.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Volume!!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Also, nobody said that Gen III target profit is 25%. I think that is pretty unlikely.

    EDIT:
    And I'm ok with that.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I believe it was the investor's meeting earlier in the month that Elon said margins would drop in the mass market car.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hey! Don't diss the dogs!
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    guest
    EDIT,,
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Look like smart money is getting in :)
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    guest
    EDIT,,
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Heh, I don't want that kind of responsibility, but I'll happily share my best guesses here for free.

    In the spirit of that: I have been doing some work the last few days, and it is my opinion that we should be pretty safe to hold on until the 200-day average reaches $35. At that point I think we will be over-bought and due for a correction regardless of how good the fundamentals are. I don't know what the price will be when we get there, it depends how quickly the price increases, maybe about $42? I think I'll wait to see $40 and re-evaluate, hopefully things will be clearer then.

    Oh, and I did miss the low, I started buying back too soon (my first buy was at $35...way too soon) and my lowest purchase was at about $27.30 (again, too soon). All I did was recognized when we were going to breakout of the funk that the stock has been in.

    Oh, and obviously these predictions are done in a vacuum. If Elon gets hit buy a bus before we get to $40 all bets are off.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    DJI down .1%, TSLA up 5.27%. Very good day. Very nice signs.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Been watching the stock for some time, and just watched. But, I decided to jump in today. We'll see how the ride goes, but as someone with a vested interest as a reservation holder, I hope it goes well....
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    just listening to corey johnson on bloomberg negative biased and uninformed review he gave!! listen to at 6 pm est time bloomberg west
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I could never bring my self to sell 100% of my shares either. I still own most of the shares that I bought at $19 shortly after the IPO. I strongly believe that the key is to have some portion of your shares that you are holding for the long term, and some portion that you are using to try to take advantage of the volatility.

    Personally my ratio of long-term shares to "shares I can play with" is 2/3; but maybe a a different split would fit your risk tolerance and investment objectives better.

    EDIT:
    I guess "ratio" wasn't the right word to use there. To be clear I consider 2/3 of my shares to be "long-term" investments and 1/3 to be for trading.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    vfx: "Volume!!"

    both good points
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    guest
    EDIT,,
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    A few months ago he was claiming Tesla would not have enough money to build up the factory(ries) to the point where they are production ready. That's about to be proven wrong (at least when Tesla starts ramping up). Is that still his criticism, or did he just switch to another doomsday scenario?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This (and your previous points) seems to amount to what I was saying before, which is that they are trying to create the impression that Tesla is financing itself via reservations. In a sense, one might say, partially that would not be really wrong, but is not a actually a problem since they have enough "assets" (even without drawing the rest of the loan, which they may still do for other reasons or as an *additional* buffer).

    Is it correct to say that the Q1 balance sheet already reflects those "issues" by listing the reservations as liabilities, meaning, there are no additional considerations outside of what the balance sheet shows, that would need to be taken account of. (?)

    The reservations have already been subtracted, there is no need to do so twice. Just to make it as clear as possible.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That's laughably bad
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Exactly. What does it take to get on TVs these days and act as an expert? Apparently not much.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This guy is not getting a ride from Elon in the Model S!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Was there anything right in that experts review? Well, there is a company called Tesla that makes electric cars. Other than that, not much. He should probably just throw dried up bones on the ground and read them and his advice would be just as reasonable.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I hope not!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    We are contrarians here.

    Here in Canada, we are at the top of a real estate bubble, just like in the US, but even bigger. The bubble is showing signs of failure. In this great blog about our real estate bubble:

    Contrarians The Troubled Future of Real Estate

    He discusses contrarians. Which means going against the mainstream thinking. I can help myself making a parallel between a bubble and Tesla. Tesla (the stock) is at the opposite of a bubble, the company is clearly building value and the stock is not really following the value added. Why? Poor information, mainstream thinking is that EV's are not for now, they are in a distant future.

    They are about to be proven wrong again. Just like they were back in the US bubble and now the Canadian bubble about to burst. Sad but true.

    The mainstream thinking is about to change tomorrow. The question is: will it change brutally or slowly but steadily. This will all depend of the WOW factor Tesla will provide the world tomorrow.

    BTW, I'm renting a house ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    TSLA is once again doin' the Dow.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I've said it before and I'll say it again: Tesla is headed for a position as a major car maker, but "mainstream" thinking will change slowly and the stock will continue to be volatile.

    As for tomorrow's event, aren't most or all of tomorrow's cars going to founders? There will be a slow psychological shift when cars start going to buyers not connected to the company. Will there be a delay between the founders' series and the signature series, to get feedback before moving forward?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Don't be so sure. Keep in mind it is THE big event.

    We don't know how quick the sentiment will change. How about if they receive 10 000 new orders during the weekend alone? 10k is not a whole lot. Remember lines at Apple stores the day after a product launch?

    People go nuts.

    Let's see what happens on Monday. I am ready.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    edit: ... comment was posted twice...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I honestly think you may be (unintentionally) exaggerating tomorrow's significance in the eyes of the world. WE'RE amped, but most of the populace don't even know what's going on, and if they did, many would probably shrug at 10 100k cars going to company insiders.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am not exaggerating tomorrow's event significance. I am thinking out loud.

    What I am saying is "What if..."

    If it does not happen, I'll keep my shares and forget. I'm in for the long run.

    But. Be ready for the "What if".
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agreed, but I think the press that the event will generate will certainly attract some investment dollars. Especially from retail investors.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And don't forget the shorts. Twenty-six millions of them...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't think shorts are going to change their positions over the weekend. If they haven't changed their mind by now, then they've already accepted that the Model S will ship and are looking to some other kind of disaster.

    At this point the conversation seems to have changed to "after the first 10,000 orders are filled, will there be any more buyers?". Like with every other time the bears have predicted Tesla will not be able to overcome an obstacle, they will be shocked to see there is enough demand to sustain that level of production, and they will move on to the next thing to justify their position.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I know the parallel is getting a bit tired, but it is very similar to the situation with Apple back before the iPhone, then again before the iPad. Once it DOES work, how many companies will be trying to follow Tesla with products that mimic whatever it is that most appeals to buyers? If it's the EV powertrain, great, Tesla may be able to make some change off selling and licensing. If it's the gizmos and such, well... we'll see.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    IMO, Friday has 2 impacts:

    1. Analysts will check off the expected milestone and take note that Tesla truly is ahead of schedule. (Will that affect any ratings? Probably not many as various analysts have been issuing updates recently anyway).

    2. Press/Media will get some test drives, even if it's only 10 minutes Jalponik, and that is going to result in reviews and press coverage.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    3) possible announcement from Elon on charging plan
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    4) Stock doubles in a week and everyone on the financial planet now have TSLA on their radar, which leads to a short squeeze of a gigantic proportion.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Makes more sense to save that for another news cycle. I'm also skeptical it'll have a major share impact as it may well be seen as another grandiose plan - although Elon's gotten pretty good at delivering on his grandiose plans.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I doubt the event will do anything to the stock, but the various test drive opinions by the press written up in the week or two following might. Such things seem to have a transient impact though.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Let's hope your right!
    �
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