TSLA Investor Discussions part 30

1/1/2015

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DrDave said: ?

Night shift is already running and has been for a while, along with 7 day weeks. They have made 200 vehicles in a week once, I wouldn't count on seeing 400/week this year, still too many things to iron out internally and externally.

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Time will tell. If I was on the line these awards coming in left and right would sure help to pump out as many as possible

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1/1/2015

guest

Like I said, something always comes along to derail things, I wouldn't be shocked or surprised to see TSLA near $20 again, all it takes is the market tanking as it did in 2008, or even the threat of another downturn (heading toward that cliff you know), and news stories like this to have the stock under heavy manipulation again:
U.S. Oil Future: Energy Independent By 2030, Bigger Than Saudis In 2020
Things quite often go sideways, you need to keep that in mind always.

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1/1/2015

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unfortunately I have a high entry point (approx 33). Watching this stock over the last half a year, it goes up, it goes down, repeat. I am going to sell a few off now, and try to pick them back up around 30 which would be about a five per cent gain if achieved.

i know nothing about the market really but in my brief time following it (six months or so) have no doubts people are making huge money by manipulating variations. there is no reason for stocks to fluctuate wildly throughout the day, yet they do. i do not see why there could not be two trading times/prices released per day ie you can buy the stock at open or at close or something like that. this would eliminate what I am presuming to be a whole whack of traders, nickeling and diming their way to millions in profit , off the backs of the the everyday person.

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1/1/2015

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Ocelot said: ?

unfortunately I have a high entry point (approx 33). Watching this stock over the last half a year, it goes up, it goes down, repeat. I am going to sell a few off now, and try to pick them back up around 30 which would be about a five per cent gain if achieved.

i know nothing about the market really but in my brief time following it (six months or so) have no doubts people are making huge money by manipulating variations. there is no reason for stocks to fluctuate wildly throughout the day, yet they do. i do not see why there could not be two trading times/prices released per day ie you can buy the stock at open or at close or something like that. this would eliminate what I am presuming to be a whole whack of traders, nickeling and diming their way to millions in profit , off the backs of the the everyday person.

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I understand your sentiment and I can see why your elegant and simple solution seems like it should work, but as you said, you "know nothing about the market" and I don't think you fully appreciate the repercussions your suggestion would have.

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1/1/2015

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Just went up to $32.00 .

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1/1/2015

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Citizen-T said: ?

I understand your sentiment and I can see why your elegant and simple solution seems like it should work, but as you said, you "know nothing about the market" and I don't think you fully appreciate the repercussions your suggestion would have.

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Your right Citizen, I probably do not. I would imagine there would be a certain amount of jobs lost for 'traders'. As long as there was a way to guarantee selling or buying, so there was no 'bottleneck' at the specified times, I think it would work well, and acutally do what the market "should" be intended to do, buy and sell stocks you are interested in. what would eliminating all the minutiae accomplish? I would hope it would accomplish a more stable economy. when i step back and look at 'puts', 'calls' and the market in general, all i really see is people with an understanding of the details of an organism, (the market) either making money or hedging a bet based on fluff. i mean really is there a reason for stocks to fluctuate as much as they do, other than this is the game that has been created, to make people money? its a giant organism that has been created to make some rich, on the backs of the 'commoner'. Although my system probably would have far reaching ramifications, that I cannot imagine, I would prefer another type of system based on some type of integrity.

::takes of tye dye shirt, puts on suit and heads to the office::

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1/1/2015

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hey ya'll, been following for months. sitting on some cash, waiting for it to hit 27 (happy late birthday to me), I made my limit then bought a large sum (a year of savings). never forget that morning I looked at my online bank statement and the debit that proceeded. always been firm believer in "go big or go home" saying (thanks dad). my boss and protege (millionaire and avid investor) says not to ever get emotionally attached to a stock and though my estrogen levels rarely surface unlike many other women, I am inspired by tesla and hopeful for this company; nikola tesla infatuation. new to stocks, i've already developed a hunger for more gain. is it just me? i'll stay in it for the long run, I presume.

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1/1/2015

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westcoastvaleska said: ?

hey ya'll, been following for months. sitting on some cash, waiting for it to hit 27 (happy late birthday to me), I made my limit then bought a large sum (a year of savings). never forget that morning I looked at my online bank statement and the debit that proceeded. always been firm believer in "go big or go home" saying (thanks dad). my boss and protege (millionaire and avid investor) says not to ever get emotionally attached to a stock and though my estrogen levels rarely surface unlike many other women, I am inspired by tesla and hopeful for this company; nikola tesla infatuation. new to stocks, i've already developed a hunger for more gain. is it just me? i'll stay in it for the long run, I presume.

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This is the first stock I have ever invested in. I am also hooked an know that I will be in the market for the long term.

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Ocelot said: ?

unfortunately I have a high entry point (approx 33). Watching this stock over the last half a year, it goes up, it goes down, repeat. I am going to sell a few off now, and try to pick them back up around 30 which would be about a five per cent gain if achieved.

i know nothing about the market really but in my brief time following it (six months or so) have no doubts people are making huge money by manipulating variations. there is no reason for stocks to fluctuate wildly throughout the day, yet they do. i do not see why there could not be two trading times/prices released per day ie you can buy the stock at open or at close or something like that. this would eliminate what I am presuming to be a whole whack of traders, nickeling and diming their way to millions in profit , off the backs of the the everyday person.

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If you bought stock at that price then it will seem like a steal a year from now (sooner hopefully). If you bought options like I did then hopefully they expire further out than mine lol.

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1/1/2015

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Interesting, while most here are expecting Tesla to exceed the 20,000 target for 2013 and with minimum gross margins of 25%, Morgan Stanley seems to think the bar is much lower while sticking to their $47 price target.

To quote their analyst:

We think the bar for Tesla�s stock is lower than first appears. We believe a scenario in which Tesla misses its 2013 volume and gross margin target (but still gets within the ballpark) while delivering near-perfect cars to around 15,000 happy customers while achieving cash flow break-even would be a watershed accomplishment. We tell investors to just forget about doing 20k or 30k units next year. Just proving the viability of the product and the business model (even at lower levels of volume) would challenge the most critical bear case against the company.

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I like that thinking, and in case Tesla does achieve 20,000 or higher production volume next year, I'm looking forward to Morgan Stanley upgrading TSLA price target to the $70 level they had before.

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1/1/2015

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Particularly big swings this morning in the stock.

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1/1/2015

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Is it just me who is a little bit surprised that the stock hasn't gone up more the last week or so? It's been beating the indexes pretty much every day now, but I thought the market would appreciate Tesla's possision right now a little bit more. I invested this spring, and the stock has only gone slightly up since then. For me it doesn't really matter, since I don't plan to sell for several years. However, half a year ago Tesla had tons of challenges to overcome. Now Tesla has proved that their product is among the very best, they have overcome most of the production issues and the demand is growing at a rate that I doubt Tesla can meet. For me the stock today seems like a no-brainer to invest in, while half a year ago it was a risky stock

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1/1/2015

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erha said: ?

Is it just me who is a little bit surprised that the stock hasn't gone up more the last week or so? It's been beating the indexes pretty much every day now, but I thought the market would appreciate Tesla's possision right now a little bit more. I invested this spring, and the stock has only gone slightly up since then. For me it doesn't really matter, since I don't plan to sell for several years. However, half a year ago Tesla had tons of challenges to overcome. Now Tesla has proved that their product is among the very best, they have overcome most of the production issues and the demand is growing at a rate that I doubt Tesla can meet. For me the stock today seems like a no-brainer to invest in, while half a year ago it was a risky stock

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While I totally agree with you...

For many investors, looking at Q3 financials will draw a terrible picture, revenue dropped year over year, gross profits gone negative, record high negative net income... Just to name a few. One would need to look way deeper and do a lot of research to understand as to why he should be investing instead of selling his shares.

Besides, even as of now not all major risks were retired. Continues demand is one of them. Gross margins is another. Etc.

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1/1/2015

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erha said: ?

Is it just me who is a little bit surprised that the stock hasn't gone up more the last week or so? It's been beating the indexes pretty much every day now, but I thought the market would appreciate Tesla's possision right now a little bit more. I invested this spring, and the stock has only gone slightly up since then. For me it doesn't really matter, since I don't plan to sell for several years. However, half a year ago Tesla had tons of challenges to overcome. Now Tesla has proved that their product is among the very best, they have overcome most of the production issues and the demand is growing at a rate that I doubt Tesla can meet. For me the stock today seems like a no-brainer to invest in, while half a year ago it was a risky stock

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I think the fact that it's a fantastic car doesn't affect the perception of the people who invest as an investment. They still worry that the company will fail. They want to see exactly one thing, IMHO, which is positive cash flow. Then the stock will go up. Until then, it's speculative.

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1/1/2015

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ggr said: ?

I think the fact that it's a fantastic car doesn't affect the perception of the people who invest as an investment. They still worry that the company will fail. They want to see exactly one thing, IMHO, which is positive cash flow. Then the stock will go up. Until then, it's speculative.

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while I wish it weren't true, it's most likely right. Can't get much better than MT COTY.

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1/1/2015

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erha said: ?

half a year ago Tesla had tons of challenges to overcome. Now Tesla has proved that their product is among the very best, they have overcome most of the production issues and the demand is growing at a rate that I doubt Tesla can meet. For me the stock today seems like a no-brainer to invest in, while half a year ago it was a risky stock

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I agree very much with this part, but I am not too surprised the stock has not gone up more. I've seen this before. it's sometimes like it takes a few weeks or even a couple of months for people to really let themselves believe a company is as excellent a risk/reward offering as it is.

I'm about 80% sure that barring the whole market taking a major drop, Tesla will either be in a new trading range 10 to 20% higher than where it is now within two months or something better. I don't like to make short term calls, but I base this on the point you made of things being so much better than six months ago, I'm confident it will sink in.

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1/1/2015

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TSLA wont make a major move up until they prove they can deliver volume production with proven quality. Look to January or February.

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1/1/2015

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Zzzz... said: ?

Besides, even as of now not all major risks were retired. Continues demand is one of them. Gross margins is another. Etc.

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I want to believe, but I too am getting skittish, particularly about whether continuing demand will materialize and whether the gross margin projections are achieveable.

The number of new net reservations declined (very slightly) between the second and third quarters; the increase in the second quarter was 1,800, in the third quarter the increase was 1,700. Once Tesla can produce 400 vehicles/week, it will need 5,000 new reservations/quarter (with zero cancellations) for demand to match production capability.

Elon said in September he thought Roadster gross margin was between 25 to 30%; the Statements of Operations show it was about 15 percent. Compared to the Roadster, the Model S is a larger vehicle, with a bigger battery, motor cooling, and far more interior and exterior features, not to mention free charging for the 85 kwh and 60 kwh packs. Even with improvements in battery technology and many of the Model S parts produced in-house, 25% gross margin seems challenging.

I'm also concerned about the need for more relief from the DOE:

"For the quarters ending September 30, 2013 and December 31, 2013, we currently anticipate that without taking advantage of additional revenue opportunities or making adjustments to our spending, we expect that we will need to seek an amendment from the DOE to modify the fixed charge coverage ratio covenant."

While the election results virtually assure the modificaton will be granted, the statement seems to indicate limited financial margin for error. With the looming fiscal cliff crisis and the likely solutions seemingly targeted at Tesla's most likely customers, as an investor I'm considering going to the sidelines for six months or so. What have I overlooked?

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1/1/2015

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Discoducky said: ?

Can't get much better than MT COTY.

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Let us not forget that the Chevy Volt won that award in 2011. Didn't seem to much for sales or GM's stock price.

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1/1/2015

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brian45011 said: ?

I want to believe, but I too am getting skittish, particularly about whether continuing demand will materialize and whether the gross margin projections are achieveable.

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Seems like you're working really hard to see the glass half empty. Or nearly all empty.

brian45011 said: ?

The number of new net reservations declined (very slightly) between the second and third quarters; the increase in the second quarter was 1,800, in the third quarter the increase was 1,700.

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There was spike in cancellations as nearly 3 years worth of reservation holders were contacted to finally confirm purchase over the course of maybe 3 months. Going forward each quarter would only be contacting about a quarter's worth of people. Cancellations rates are going to be far lower going forward since folks being contacted will only have waited a short time.

brian45011 said: ?

Elon said in September he thought Roadster gross margin was between 25 to 30%; the Statements of Operations show it was about 15 percent.

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No idea on this, but is 15% lifetime or the margin near the end? Margins increased over time so the margins to look at would be the ones on the final model.

brian45011 said: ?

I'm also concerned about the need for more relief from the DOE:

"For the quarters ending September 30, 2013 and December 31, 2013, we currently anticipate that without taking advantage of additional revenue opportunities or making adjustments to our spending, we expect that we will need to seek an amendment from the DOE to modify the fixed charge coverage ratio covenant."

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If you look at this, that statement is prefaced by: "...if we do not raise the proceeds anticipated from this offering..." Tesla obviously completed the offering, so the concerns about amending the loan became irrelevant.

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smorgasbord said: ?

Let us not forget that the Chevy Volt won that award in 2011. Didn't seem to much for sales or GM's stock price.

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That comparison isn't really going to tell you much. The Volt, even if it sold well, is just a tiny part of GM's revenue so it's not going to make much impact.

The Model S is obviously the vast bulk of Tesla's revenue.

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1/1/2015

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Interesting bit posted by cinergi on another thread:

Model S Reservations after winning Motor Trend COTY - Page 3

cinergi said: ?

An employee shared the number of reservations made yesterday with me ... it's probably not information I'm supposed to share -- so I'll tell ya this, it smokes the 57 number :smile: It's going to be very fascinating to see what the rate looks like over the next few months!

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Far greater than 57 reservations per day!

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1/1/2015

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erha said: ?

Is it just me who is a little bit surprised that the stock hasn't gone up more the last week or so? It's been beating the indexes pretty much every day now, but I thought the market would appreciate Tesla's possision right now a little bit more. I invested this spring, and the stock has only gone slightly up since then. For me it doesn't really matter, since I don't plan to sell for several years. However, half a year ago Tesla had tons of challenges to overcome. Now Tesla has proved that their product is among the very best, they have overcome most of the production issues and the demand is growing at a rate that I doubt Tesla can meet. For me the stock today seems like a no-brainer to invest in, while half a year ago it was a risky stock

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Nothing has really changed from a financial standpoint. I wouldn't expect big moves until we get a solid quarter with great production numbers, high reservations and low cancellations. Plus REAL progress on increasing margin.

Tesla has yet to demonstrate that it will be profitable. Even building ~400 cars/week and getting large numbers of new reservations and a hit product will be useless if the margins are too low for the company to be profitable. There is an argument to be made that Tesla is sacrificing margin and adopting a brute force approach to production that is not sustainable. The big money will stay away until that changes.

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Zzzz... said: ?

While I totally agree with you...

For many investors, looking at Q3 financials will draw a terrible picture, revenue dropped year over year, gross profits gone negative, record high negative net income... Just to name a few. One would need to look way deeper and do a lot of research to understand as to why he should be investing instead of selling his shares.

Besides, even as of now not all major risks were retired. Continues demand is one of them. Gross margins is another. Etc.

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Consumer Reports just put up an amazingly positive story about the Model S. Combined with the huge amount of free media from the MotorTrend award and anecdotal reports of spiking reservations, Tesla is fast approaching a point where demand risks are virtually nil.

If Tesla can hit their planned production targets (a moderately big risk, but one that is rapidly diminishing) gross margin is going to loom as the 800lb gorilla for Tesla.

Tesla is putting a ton of effort into making their current production numbers, and their delivery effort continues to strain the company. Insolvency doens't look to be a big risk right now (assuming that Tesla is, or nearly is cash flow positive), but that is pretty far from having the kinds of margin that are necessary for Tesla to actually be profitable.

Until we see progress on that front I would predict that the stock price will continue to be volatile, and constrained to the range we have seen for the past few months.

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1/1/2015

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I agree, that on an investors viewpoint, the Q3 report was not really reassuring. The MT COTY is perfect for the image of the brand. What i'm more concerned about is the way TSLA is (again) behaving towards the European customers / market. There is no information as of now on a bunch of crucial questions: homologation process, pricing, 3-phase charging, Supercharger-Network, service fees, just to name a few. As a roadster owner, Model S and X reservation holder, i have not even been invited to test drive one of those Model S that apparently are touring around over here. If Tesla does not dramatically change this attitude i'm sure it will lose more than just a couple of potential customers. That would indeed be sad.... and to get back on topic, this would negatively influence the stock.

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1/1/2015

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I'm guessing they are a little bit busy right now.

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1/1/2015

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smorgasbord said: ?

Let us not forget that the Chevy Volt won that award in 2011. Didn't seem to much for sales or GM's stock price.

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Not the best comparison IMO. Tesla's only product is the Model S while the Volt is one out of dozens of the offerings GM has.

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1/1/2015

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mnx said: ?

Not the best comparison IMO. Tesla's only product is the Model S while the Volt is one out of dozens of the offerings GM has.

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GM spends lots of money on marketing. Tesla does not.
Free press is waaaay more meaningful to Tesla.
There are probably a few million people just learning about Tesla and the Model S this month.

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1/1/2015

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LST said: ?

I agree, that on an investors viewpoint, the Q3 report was not really reassuring. The MT COTY is perfect for the image of the brand. What i'm more concerned about is the way TSLA is (again) behaving towards the European customers / market. There is no information as of now on a bunch of crucial questions: homologation process, pricing, 3-phase charging, Supercharger-Network, service fees, just to name a few. As a roadster owner, Model S and X reservation holder, i have not even been invited to test drive one of those Model S that apparently are touring around over here. If Tesla does not dramatically change this attitude i'm sure it will lose more than just a couple of potential customers. That would indeed be sad.... and to get back on topic, this would negatively influence the stock.

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I can see why you're frustrated LST. there was a lot of frustration expressed about communication by U.S. reservation holders on these boards. fortunately that seems to have changed quite a bit in the last month or so. hopefully it will change soon in E.U. as well.

as far as when the car will be available, I think these comments from Q3 conference call suggest production will begin March or April of '13... have to imagine deliveries soon thereafter.

Elon Musk - Chairman, Product Architect and CEO We've made huge progress on homologation. We designed the Model S from the beginning to meet the European and American specs. And in fact, specs in Japan and Asia, as much as possible. So we believe that some of those specs were usually exclusive. And in fact, we have two, Model S us with German plates currently driving around that we completed as part of our European media launch recently.

So we believe that there is very little to get the European spec in homologation ready for production. We could start production of those units sooner than kind of the March, April timeframe next year. But there is not really a need to do that, since we can fully install our production with North American demand, rather than increase the complication of managing all those cars in Europe. And we want to stay focused in North America just for a few more months, before we start ship cars over to Europe, and then Asia shortly thereafter.

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1/1/2015

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CapitalistOppressor said: ?

Consumer Reports just put up an amazingly positive story about the Model S. Combined with the huge amount of free media from the MotorTrend award and anecdotal reports of spiking reservations, Tesla is fast approaching a point where demand risks are virtually nil.

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There are a lot of products on market that sells very well first year and then sales diminish. For example new models of motorcycles. Or smartphones. It is great that TM got really high reservation rate at this moment. But electric premium/luxury sedan is something very new around. And from the point of view of at least some investors it is not granted that reservation rate for Model S would continue to exceed 5,000 in Q1 2014, year and few months from now. After first wave of early adopters would have got their cars.

I think most likely that would be the case, but still somewhat cautious.

And I fully agree with rest of your post, CapitalistOppressor.

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1/1/2015

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Zzzz... said: ?

There are a lot of products on market that sells very well first year and then sales diminish. For example new models of motorcycles. Or smartphones. It is great that TM got really high reservation rate at this moment. But electric premium/luxury sedan is something very new around. And from the point of view of at least some investors it is not granted that reservation rate for Model S would continue to exceed 5,000 in Q1 2014, year and few months from now. After first wave of early adopters would have got their cars.

I think most likely that would be the case, but still somewhat cautious.

And I fully agree with rest of your post, CapitalistOppressor.

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Considering the fact that people who try the Model S never want to drive anything else will result in more Tesla sales (or more EV sales in general) when a few years ahead its time to trade in the Model S.
I buy a new car everey 3-4 years, and I am certain that the car after the 2013 Model S will also be an EV (probably a new Tesla). This means another Tesla sale in 2016.

They`ll not only attract new customers, but keep the ones they have (unless they do something seriously wrong, or the competitors catch up within 3-4 years which I do not believe they will).

The only thing I could see hurt Tesla sales is competitors launching better cars, but noone is even close to being where Tesla is. By the time traditional car companies are ready to compete, Tesla will already have a strong position. The development of the Supercharger network globally is somewhat compareable to what Appstore has been for iPhone (I know it works well). This network takes time to build, and once you`re familiar with/used to the Tesla stations the threshold to switch to another brand increases.

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1/1/2015

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LST said: ?

What i'm more concerned about is the way TSLA is (again) behaving towards the European customers / market. There is no information as of now on a bunch of crucial questions: [...]

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I could imagine that Tesla will start with these activities only as they come closer to actually delivering european cars. There is never "enough" information until the cars are delivered, and as long as there is a long waiting list in the US and Canada, they don't need to build up advance demand in Europe. It might only lead to more impatience and frustration as it would create more interest.

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Zzzz... said: ?

There are a lot of products on market that sells very well first year and then sales diminish. For example new models of motorcycles. Or smartphones. It is great that TM got really high reservation rate at this moment. But electric premium/luxury sedan is something very new around. And from the point of view of at least some investors it is not granted that reservation rate for Model S would continue to exceed 5,000 in Q1 2014, year and few months from now. After first wave of early adopters would have got their cars.

I think most likely that would be the case, but still somewhat cautious.

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Well, that's why Tesla is very sincere about creating a car that is a compelling product on the car market as a whole, not just for long-time EV fans.

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1/1/2015

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Norbert said: ?

There is never "enough" information until the cars are delivered, and as long as there is a long waiting list in the US and Canada, they don't need to build up advance demand in Europe. It might only lead to more impatience and frustration as it would create more interest.

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We will soon have some pre-owned car factories in Europe! Ford, GM/Opel, Peugeot/Citroen (PSA) all consider closing down at least one of their plants, only hindered by unions and politicians that fear the loss of jobs. If Tesla makes a bold move, I see EU production capacities for Model S on the horizon!

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1/1/2015

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VolkerP said: ?

We will soon have some pre-owned car factories in Europe! Ford, GM/Opel, Peugeot/Citroen (PSA) all consider closing down at least one of their plants, only hindered by unions and politicians that fear the loss of jobs. If Tesla makes a bold move, I see EU production capacities for Model S on the horizon!

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I was wondering whether they would at some point consider that. However I guess if, then only after their european market is established and they are able to predict future sales. For at least a number of years, they will want to make sure that the cost of the Fremont manufacturing equipment is distributed on a large number of cars, and used to full capacity (introducing new variants as needed).

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1/1/2015

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smorgasbord said: ?

Let us not forget that the Chevy Volt won that award in 2011. Didn't seem to much for sales or GM's stock price.

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But GM didn't do much with it. Tesla did a much better job of leveraging the award. And Model S is a very different car. As I own a Volt, I should know.

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1/1/2015

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Zzzz... said: ?

There are a lot of products on market that sells very well first year and then sales diminish. For example new models of motorcycles. Or smartphones. It is great that TM got really high reservation rate at this moment. But electric premium/luxury sedan is something very new around. And from the point of view of at least some investors it is not granted that reservation rate for Model S would continue to exceed 5,000 in Q1 2014, year and few months from now. After first wave of early adopters would have got their cars.

I think most likely that would be the case, but still somewhat cautious.

And I fully agree with rest of your post, CapitalistOppressor.

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Oh, I don't dispute that demand can be an issue in the future. I was looking more at short term risk which is affecting the stock price. I think Tesla has baked in demand for 2013 and a good chunk of 2014 thanks to their waiting list for the S and the X. Going forward I think there is a solid case to be made that Tesla will see increases in demand, but that is clearly just an opinion.

My main point though is that the critical path at this point is cost reduction. Worst case demand problems are a factor 12-18 months from now, while margins go to the heart of the business case for Tesla. I am still planning on buying more Tesla stock (though I am waiting out this mini-bubble downdraft), but it's still an absolute leap of faith that Tesla will get their cost issues under control and get their gross margin up to ~25%.

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1/1/2015

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Oyvind.H said: ?

Considering the fact that people who try the Model S never want to drive anything else will result in more Tesla sales (or more EV sales in general) when a few years ahead its time to trade in the Model S.
I buy a new car everey 3-4 years, and I am certain that the car after the 2013 Model S will also be an EV (probably a new Tesla). This means another Tesla sale in 2016.

They`ll not only attract new customers, but keep the ones they have (unless they do something seriously wrong, or the competitors catch up within 3-4 years which I do not believe they will).

The only thing I could see hurt Tesla sales is competitors launching better cars, but noone is even close to being where Tesla is. By the time traditional car companies are ready to compete, Tesla will already have a strong position. The development of the Supercharger network globally is somewhat compareable to what Appstore has been for iPhone (I know it works well). This network takes time to build, and once you`re familiar with/used to the Tesla stations the threshold to switch to another brand increases.

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I fully agree. My husband has already determined that his next car will be a Tesla. He just can't decide if it will be the Model R or the Performance Gen III. :O)

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1/1/2015

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I'm wondering who here thinks TSLA has turned a corner (ie., inflection point of MT COTY, other reviews, and happy customers) and we won't see a sub-30 stock price ever again.

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1/1/2015

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DaveT said: ?

I'm wondering who here thinks TSLA has turned a corner (ie., inflection point of MT COTY, other reviews, and happy customers) and we won't see a sub-30 stock price ever again.

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I think that the inactivity is due to post-election shuffling and fiscal cliff speculation. I don't think it is related to Tesla at all.

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DaveT said: ?

I'm wondering who here thinks TSLA has turned a corner (ie., inflection point of MT COTY, other reviews, and happy customers) and we won't see a sub-30 stock price ever again.

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Me and joefee have predicted around $50 price level in Q2 2013. You probably will have a hard time finding bigger optimists around here:biggrin:

Nevertheless chances of going down to $28 short term are still there. Not to mention $29.xx. If I had a chance to bet even odds that we see sub 30, I would bet my money right away! No brainer. We most likely will see that price.

As for turning point - I think Q1 2013 release would be it. We are still 6 months away from that point.

Zzzz... said: ?

My back of envelope calculations say that we will hit Morgan Stanly and Maxim Group $50 price target after Q1 report release(April 2013). Lots of assumptions here, so more like educated guess

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joefee said: ?

I see the $36 level as a new support level for yearend and $50 by Q2 2013 :tongue:

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Zzzz... said: ?

I'm watching institutional ownership, it was slowly decreasing from over 59%, to 58%, and now it is 57.95%

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kenliles said: ?

Institutional ownership is at 58.84%
Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Institutional Ownership & Holdings - NASDAQ.com

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Institutional ownership jumped up to 73.81%! Difference between 57.95% and 73.81% is ~18.05 million shares.

With so many shares bought very recently, I could not believe we still at $30.xx level.

- - - Updated - - -

Is it possible for short interest to jump from 31M to 40M+ in last 2 weeks? That would be a huge jump.

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Aside from all the financials, if you were to assign a percentage to how much the whole dealership lawsuits, etc. junk is affecting stock price, what would it be?

Do you think the market is being cautious and waiting to see how that pans out? I mean, if Tesla has to suddenly adopt the traditional dealership role, that would affect all the other financials, no?

If the market indeed is waiting to see what happens, and we feel this issue is a significant percentage of effect, how long can we expect to wait for a ruling?

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Zzzz... said: ?

Institutional ownership jumped up to 73.81%! Difference between 57.95% and 73.81% is ~18.05 million shares.

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That's a big change. Perhaps the non-institutional shareholders got confused by the continued fluctuations and the resulting day-trading mentality. Now the shares move over to the more experienced players just before the price goes up.

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Zzzz... said: ?

Institutional ownership jumped up to 73.81%! Difference between 57.95% and 73.81% is ~18.05 million shares.

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How much of the recent offering went to institutional owners? If it was most of it, that'd account for a big chunk of that jump.

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BTW, that doesn't leave much for Elon, does it?

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Zzzz... said: ?

Institutional ownership jumped up to 73.81%! Difference between 57.95% and 73.81% is ~18.05 million shares.

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If these numbers are correct, and if it is correct that EM owns 27203237 shares, then it seems that EM owns about 23.9% and this leaves only about 2.3% for non-institutional owners other than EM. Is that possible?

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Norbert said: ?

BTW, that doesn't leave much for Elon, does it?

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Yes, shares outstanding 113.78M, inst owned 73.81%, so that leave 29.80M for non inst ownership.

Last time I heard, pretty sure I recall this correctly Elon himself owned 27M shares. I will Google though now.

ckessel said: ?

How much of the recent offering went to institutional owners? If it was most of it, that'd account for a big chunk of that jump.

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Offering was a month and a week ago...

One month lag on nasdaq.com updating that number? But updating it every day???

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Zzzz... said: ?

Yes, shares outstanding 113.78M, inst owned 73.81%, so that leave 29.80M for non inst ownership.

Last time I heard, pretty sure I recall this correctly Elon himself owned 27M shares. I will Google though now.

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See my additional message above. It seems to leave only 2.3 % for non-institutional owners other than EM.

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Norbert said: ?

If these numbers are correct, and if it is correct that EM owns 27203237 shares, then it seems that EM owns about 23.9% and this leaves only about 2.3% for non-institutional owners other than EM. Is that possible?

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No. It is not possible.

But sometimes they count insiders who hold 5%+ shares outstanding as part of inst ownership. Probably that is the case.

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Zzzz... said: ?

No. It is not possible.

But sometimes they count insiders who hold 5%+ shares outstanding as part of inst ownership. Probably that is the case.

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I think I was hoping that individual EV enthusiasts, combined, would hold a larger percentage.

EDIT: This might be disappointing for JP, who likes to portray Tesla's share price as a result of greenies looking through rosy glasses.

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Do I understand it correctly? Bigger then 100% ownership is possible because of short interest, which essentially add to number of shares floating?

Data from Yahoo finance, but it lags behind nasdaq.com usually.

And 42%+67% is 109%...

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Zzzz... said: ?

Do I understand it correctly? Bigger then 100% ownership is possible because of short interest, which essentially add to number of shares floating?

Data from Yahoo finance, but it lags behind nasdaq.com usually.

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Hmm this is what VW looked like before it's squeeze. Could Elon and friends be buying some of Tesla via institutions and then since TSLA is oversold demanding the shares from the shorts?

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ElSupreme said: ?

Hmm this is what VW looked like before it's squeeze. Could Elon and friends be buying some of Tesla via institutions and then since TSLA is oversold demanding the shares from the shorts?

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How do you mean "demanding" the shares? I thought the broker "loaned" the shares of other customers to short sellers, so that for example if I'm long on TSLA for all I know "my" shares could be "on loan" and currently being short sold? And that the only way for me to "demand" my shares would be to sell them? Or can I actively request that my particular shares not be "loaned and shorted"?

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Johan said: ?

How do you mean "demanding" the shares? I thought the broker "loaned" the shares of other customers to short sellers, so that for example if I'm long on TSLA for all I know "my" shares could be "on loan" and currently being short sold? And that the only way for me to "demand" my shares would be to sell them? Or can I actively request that my particular shares not be "loaned and shorted"?

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Right now there are 115% of Tesla share outstanding, in institutional and large owners alone. This means people are selling Tesla short without actually borrowing the shares. People are buying shares from shorts that in fact do not exist. When the short sale of VW happened the shorts had the same sort of problem.

Porsche announced on Sunday that it effectively controlled 74.1 percent of VW stock�holding 42.6 percent of the carmaker�s common stock and 31.5 percent in cash-settled options. This left less than 6 percent of Volkswagen stock as �float,� or stock not held by majority owners or insiders.

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Porsche Purchase of Volkswagen Stake Causes Short Squeeze—the First of Many?

The state in Germany owned 20.1% of VW also. But the short interest was more than the total float shares left. Thus creating an 'infinite' theoretical value of the stock since Porsche could set any price it wanted even if all the float stock got into the hands of shorts.

Basically if there are enough people who wont sell where shorts can't buy any more the squeeze happens.

EDIT: Oh I forgot to add. Porsche wasn't actually allowed to demand shares. They were able to demand money. The VW squeeze was really part cornering of the market by Porsche also. I am not predicting a short squeeze by any account, I am not qualified. But such a high oversold rate makes it easier to corner the market (or get close enough) to where the shorts have to start covering their positions.

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Johan said: ?

How do you mean "demanding" the shares? I thought the broker "loaned" the shares of other customers to short sellers, so that for example if I'm long on TSLA for all I know "my" shares could be "on loan" and currently being short sold? And that the only way for me to "demand" my shares would be to sell them? Or can I actively request that my particular shares not be "loaned and shorted"?

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My understanding (which is very little) is that they cannot loan out your shares unless you have signed up for options trading capabilities on your account. I have gone so far as to request a hard copy of my stock shares in the past. Usually there is a small fee for that.

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ElSupreme said: ?

Right now there are 115% of Tesla share outstanding, in institutional and large owners alone. This means people are selling Tesla short without actually borrowing the shares. People are buying shares from shorts that in fact do not exist. When the short sale of VW happened the shorts had the same sort of problem.

Click to expand...

I agree with your views on the short squeeze and on the potential of a short squeeze here. I also agree that the >100% "ficitive float" is the result of "People are buying shares from shorts that in fact do not exist" which I believe is the same as "naked short selling" which by the way I thought was illegal? (please correct me if I'm wrong). But me question is how would someone (Elon and other big shareholder) go about actually "demanding the shares" [back] from short sellers?

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Johan said: ?

I agree with your views on the short squeeze and on the potential of a short squeeze here. I also agree that the >100% "ficitive float" is the result of "People are buying shares from shorts that in fact do not exist" which I believe is the same as "naked short selling" which by the way I thought was illegal? (please correct me if I'm wrong). But me question is how would someone (Elon and other big shareholder) go about actually "demanding the shares" [back] from short sellers?

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They just need enough of the company to where shorts stat getting scared and covering their positions. Basically if position of the group of 'people who will not sell' is great enough where the remainder of the stock pool, or the 'float' is less than the total short position. This is a red flag that the price could become theoretically infinite. At this point some shorts start covering, rising the cost, making the other shorts have to cover their positions and the dominoes start to crumble. VW increased in value about 4x in less than 2 days of trading after Porsche announced they owned 75% of the 80% of stock that was available. The short interest was greater than the 5% left and VW wen from $200 a share to over $1000 a share by the next day. Then everything got shut down, I am not too sure how it all got settled, but I think Porsche offered a crazy share. Porsche also made some more bets about the stock going down after the squeeze and other such stock maneuvers that made them a huge chunk of change.

Basically as soon as you raise the "I cornered the market" flag where the float is significantly less than the short interest then the snowball starts rolling. I don't know what the 'significant' level is.

I also don't think a short squeeze of TSLA is imminent. I think it will probably happen after they prove profitability on their quarterly earnings, and only if there is still a significant short position then. And I am not an economist, or stock broker so I am just basing this on my basic understanding of the markets and math. And well watching "Trading Places" helps too!

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Johan, I don't think anyone needs to demand the shares back, when you "borrow" stock (sell it short), you have to pay interest on the money used/current value of the asset, as the price moves up, your probabilities of buying back that stock at a lower price ("covering your short")' decrease, and the amount of your exposure increases, so what happens is, eventually the shorts accept their losses, and have to buy the stock at a higher price than they sold it at. However, since there is such a small float ("available shares")' the price tends to increase rapidly... Hence the "short squeeze". Once the rats start abandoning ship, they all run for the exit... Like the story of the 100th monkey Hundredth monkey effect - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

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Johan said: ?

I agree with your views on the short squeeze and on the potential of a short squeeze here. I also agree that the >100% "ficitive float" is the result of "People are buying shares from shorts that in fact do not exist" which I believe is the same as "naked short selling" which by the way I thought was illegal? (please correct me if I'm wrong). But me question is how would someone (Elon and other big shareholder) go about actually "demanding the shares" [back] from short sellers?

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Better answer.

By displaying that a short (when their loan period is up) that they will have to buy from a single source, at the source's dictated price (could be infinite) the shorts get scared and cover ASAP. As they can't wait until there are no shares left to buy when they need to cover.

Much simplier.

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Johan said: ?

can I actively request that my particular shares not be "loaned and shorted"?

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It's not so much about what level of option trading is authorized; many brokerages will allow selling covered calls and buying protective puts in a tax-qualified account; it's more about the cash/margin designation on the account. Securities held in a cash account can not be used as security for borrowing on margin (nor can they be loaned to other customers); securities in a margin account can be both borrowed against and loaned out. USAA brokerage, for instance, lets you designate which securities you want to hold on the cash side and which you want to hold on the margin side (certain thinly traded securities can only be held in the cash side of the account.) Institutions are required to report their long holdings quarterly so the information is always at least 1.5 months stale; institutions do not report about holdings they have loaned out for fees. There are steep fees to borrow Tesla shares, and there is no guarantee that once borrowed they won't be called back.

Retail investors/traders can prevent borrowing by holding their shares in a cash account, but at least in TSLA case, it's likely the institutions are providing liquidity for short sales.

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ElSupreme said: ?

Better answer.

By displaying that a short (when their loan period is up) that they will have to buy from a single source, at the source's dictated price (could be infinite) the shorts get scared and cover ASAP. As they can't wait until there are no shares left to buy when they need to cover.

Much simplier.

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Good answer. That's sort of what I thought - showing confidence in the stock and holding your long position even as the price increases.

One point though: In the VW example and maybe also any other short squeeze situation that has played out to date, there is the rapid increase in price but then the price comes down again and settles. It's like a law of nature because the top of the curve is absolutely not related to actual value of the company. Everyone knows this. Now Elon for example I think would never sell. I for example would sell if TSLA stock suddenly jumped to $150 in one or two days, since I'm aware of this fact. What would other big institutions do? Mutual funds etc? The extreme price movement up can only happen it seems if there is but a few very large institutional owners who, no matter what, will hold on to the stock. In the VW/Porsche example the fact is that Porsche bought all the VW stock not primarily as a stock investment but as a way of taking over/buying the whole company. Now I myself as a stock owner in Tesla have no plans of eventually being the controlling owner of Tesla. Neither does any mutual fund I'd think. Elon is probably happy with his ownership level? So wouldn't the whole squeeze here be dampened by people trying to capitalize as the squeeze unfolds, thereby making it not unfold (at least not as violently)?

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Johan said: ?

Good answer. That's sort of what I thought - showing confidence in the stock and holding your long position even as the price increases.

One point though: In the VW example and maybe also any other short squeeze situation that has played out to date, there is the rapid increase in price but then the price comes down again and settles. It's like a law of nature because the top of the curve is absolutely not related to actual value of the company. Everyone knows this. Now Elon for example I think would never sell. I for example would sell if TSLA stock suddenly jumped to $150 in one or two days, since I'm aware of this fact. What would other big institutions do? Mutual funds etc? The extreme price movement up can only happen it seems if there is but a few very large institutional owners who, no matter what, will hold on to the stock. In the VW/Porsche example the fact is that Porsche bought all the VW stock not primarily as a stock investment but as a way of taking over/buying the whole company. Now I myself as a stock owner in Tesla have no plans of eventually being the controlling owner of Tesla. Neither does any mutual fund I'd think. Elon is probably happy with his ownership level? So wouldn't the whole squeeze here be dampened by people trying to capitalize as the squeeze unfolds, thereby making it not unfold (at least not as violently)?

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Right you (and me) are in the 'float'. Large institutional owners can have self-imposed limits on their buying. Like some mutual funds can't just dump a stock on a single day. They have to go through some loopholes. But Porsche, during the VW squeeze, bought shares (really options for shares) through institutions to hide who was actually buying them. There are also index type funds which are required to have certain stocks (but TSLA isn't likely to have many shares owned that way), like VW being in the DAX's - DJIA equivalent.

But also the more apparent the squeeze is, and the more oversold the stock is the higher the squeeze will go. And it will, or at least should, come back down as the stock should reflect the true value of the company (but it really doesn't).

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So, were there a squeeze, is there a range on where the squeeze is going to send the stock before it plummets back down to reality? Obviously predicting peaks is impossible, but based on the over sold shorts and some assumptions about the time frame they'd likely be forced to buy by their brokers, can we say something like a spike between 2x and 5x (numbers pulled from air and are for example only).

I'm debating setting a sell point on my stocks at some crazy high point just in case things end up crazy-go-nuts while I'm not paying attention.

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ckessel said: ?

So, were there a squeeze, is there a range on where the squeeze is going to send the stock before it plummets back down to reality? Obviously predicting peaks is impossible, but based on the over sold shorts and some assumptions about the time frame they'd likely be forced to buy by their brokers, can we say something like a spike between 2x and 5x (numbers pulled from air and are for example only).

I'm debating setting a sell point on my stocks at some crazy high point just in case things end up crazy-go-nuts while I'm not paying attention.

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This was discussed to some extent a while back (july 2012) in this thread. I asked something similar and Citizen-T gave a good answer:

Johan said:

So, with a looming short-squeze (question is not if but when) I'm starting to think about how to time my selling, I want to sell close to the peak during the squeeze. The way I'm thinking is to watch the volume. We know there are roughly 23 million shares short sold. I'm think a few of those are "long term shorts" with big pockets, i.e. those who believe that in the long term Tesla will fail and they will "sit out" the squeeze that is will not cover even if the stock soars. These will be only a small percentage, say for simplicity 3 million. So then we have another 20 million who will be forced to cover at one price or another. Then what you have to do is define when the squeeze has begun (this is hard) and then watch the volume. And then what? When 18 million trades have occurred we are close to the peak? Problem is some trades will be new players entering, and if I was a non-believer in Tesla I would think that if there was a squeeze and the stock suddenly went to say $50 I'd think it's even better to start shorting at $50 than current prices. Also, during a squeeze it's common knowledge that at one point the price will be artificially high, so even if you are TSLA long it would make sense to short the stock from the peak price (if there was a way to know where the peak was) in the short term.

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Citizen-T said: ?

What you are trying to do here is incredibly difficult. Let me suggest that you sell shares in stages as the price rises rather than trying to nail the top. What I mean is, if you want to sell 100 shares, and you think that a short-squeeze is in process, sell the first 25 as soon as you see it; sell the next 25 at some higher point, sell another 25 when you think we've peaked; and sell the last 25 if you were wrong and we get even higher.

People always talk about buying low and selling high. I buy on the way down, and sell on the way up. I find this works much better.

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Thanks Johan (and Citizen-T). I'm embarrassed to say I recall that now that I see it in front of me again.

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Cool. Didn't have to do any work and still got credit. That's my kind of question.

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Motley Fool recommended Tesla in a second of their newsletters today, which may account for todays rise starting at noon.

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DriverOne said: ?

Motley Fool recommended Tesla in a second of their newsletters today, which may account for todays rise starting at noon.

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Accelerating demand and first Canadian store opening might also have made an impact. What I would wish for next is Tesla announcing that they have achieved 400/week production and that they'll increase it to 800/week to cope with extreme demand

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Just an update from Tesla On the number of cars delivered would provide a boost I think. Unless it was a low number of course

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Johan said: ?

But my question is how would someone (Elon and other big shareholder) go about actually "demanding the shares" [back] from short sellers?

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My understanding to protect your shares from being "lended" by your broker is this :
I believe in the States, it is called DRS, Direct Registration System. It (virtually) moves the registration of the shares to your name in book entry form, instead of leaving under your broker names where such games as naked short selling happens... Simpler than taking delivery of a physical certificate and easier if you ever want to sell them.

More info here :http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Security_%28finance%29#DRS_securities

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Oyvind.H said: ?

Accelerating demand and first Canadian store opening might also have made an impact. What I would wish for next is Tesla announcing that they have achieved 400/week production and that they'll increase it to 800/week to cope with extreme demand

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I think getting to 400 reservations a week is already happening
Now just the factory must follow

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This influx of reservations = influx of cash (even if isn't GAAP revenue). All to the good towards making TM cash positive this quarter.

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This is the short squeeze fyi

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agelston said: ?

This is the short squeeze fyi

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Darn. Now you've jinxed it. Everyone kept quiet since last Saturday and it's been creeping up. Now it'll crash again. (I hope not!!!)

P.S. But I hope you're right.

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agelston said: ?

This is the short squeeze fyi

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We've been up to $40 before, so we're not even close to that yet.

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agelston said: ?

This is the short squeeze fyi

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Nahh, just up with the market and amplified a bit by its volatility.

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agelston said: ?

This is the short squeeze fyi

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If I had a dime for everytime I'd heard that, it I hope you're right!

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dmckinstry said: ?

Darn. Now you've jinxed it. Everyone kept quiet since last Saturday and it's been creeping up. Now it'll crash again. (I hope not!!!)

P.S. But I hope you're right.

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It's going to go to 36 then drop to 34 by month end based on call open interest. Some of these are from last week, i'm remaking all my $TSLA stuff tomorrow.

Option Openinterest

https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/tsla%20openin/call.put.dec.JPG
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/tsla%20openin/call.put.nov.dec.jan.JPG

november 19th confirmation (knew about today's breakdown before today, friday's close)

https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/tsla%20openin/11.19.JPG

first breakthough confirmation chart (where I added my jan 35 calls)

?https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/tsla%20openin/1h.JPG

This is my Daily chart

https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/tsla%20openin/taking%20off.JPG

Taking off 1/3 of my postion at each green line, I hold a ton of Dec 30, Jan 31/35 Calls. Going to sell calendar call credit spreads at 35/36/38 strike prices and roll my postions forward on pullbacks.

If its a real squeeze we could see 45 in January. I'm aiming for touching 40 this month and falling back to 35/36 to make a base.

This site is super helpful for monitoring short info. Interactive Charts

You can see that today, short interest fell (they started covering) and despite the stock being at a higher price, there were fewer new shorts then yesterday (last graph). This is unusual, normally short share # rises with the price. So instead of adding to their postions, they're covering. it's the beginning of a squeeze.

Techniqually started this morning.




did i still jinx it?

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Squeezing a little, in any case...

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agelston said: ?

This site is super helpful for monitoring short info. Interactive Charts

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Why does the daily volume on the Interactive Charts appear to be so much lower than other sites that report historical data?

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brian45011 said: ?

Why does the daily volume on the Interactive Charts appear to be so much lower than other sites that report historical data?

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I've not noticed that till just now. It follows the relative amounts (like day/day change) but not absolute amounts. About half the volume registered on other sites.


This is entirely a guess, but I suspect it could be because it takes end of day data. So its the volume of those who bought and did not sell by end of day, or sold (shorted) and did not cover by end of day. Intraday volume would not be counted, accounting for the difference.

This is by no means authoritative I really am not sure, i'll look into it though.

Morning -2% was to test new longs.

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This ones a real joke on "Seeking Alpha", apparently anyone can write for them, intelligence not required.
Will Tesla's Performance Live Up To Its CEO's Hype? - Seeking Alpha

I commented on the article, and it was deleted.

"TSLA shareholders are laughing at you, all the way to the bank. It's too bad you're too shortsighted to recognize the next GM, Google or Apple. Your "advice" lacks vision, and your analysis is deeply flawed"

I really don't think that comment is out of line. SeekingAlpha, more like SeekingMediocrity.

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mitch672 said: ?

This ones a real joke on "Seeking Alpha", apparently anyone can write for them, intelligence not required.
Will Tesla's Performance Live Up To Its CEO's Hype? - Seeking Alpha

I commented on the article, and it was deleted.

"TSLA shareholders are laughing at you, all the way to the bank. It's too bad you're too shortsighted to recognize the next GM, Google or Apple. Your "advice" lacks vision, and your analysis is deeply flawed"

I really don't think that comment is out of line. SeekingAlpha, more like SeekingMediocrity.

Click to expand...

I do not think they delete comments like that. More likely that was your first or one of first 5 comments, and it would take some time before moderators "approve" it. After first few comments you made got approved by mods, after that they will get published right away.

There are some good articles there too. May be a rare beasts, but still....

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Zzzz... said: ?

I do not think they delete comments like that. More likely that was your first or one of first 5 comments, and it would take some time before moderators "approve" it. After first few comments you made got approved by mods, after that they get published right away.

There are some good articles there too. May be a rare beasts, but still....

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The comment was deleted before it was published, they have now deleted 2 out of 2 comments I made, 5? I'll never get to 5. I'm not going to bother commenting or reading anything on that waste of electrons again. No page views for you!

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Best charts I've ever seen showing the Short Interest by day. Thank you for pointing them out.

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Squeeze is looking improbable to me. Shorts have dropped almost 20% in a week and there seem to be plenty of sellers. It will be good overall to get the speculators out and leave mostly value investors.

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Thumper said: ?

Squeeze is looking improbable to me. Shorts have dropped almost 20% in a week and there seem to be plenty of sellers. It will be good overall to get the speculators out and leave mostly value investors.

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How is it possible they dropped by 20%? There hasn't been enough volume for that many trades, has there?

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ckessel said: ?

How is it possible they dropped by 20%? There hasn't been enough volume for that many trades, has there?

Click to expand...

This! It's been low volume last two weeks

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ibcs said: ?

Best charts I've ever seen showing the Short Interest by day. Thank you for pointing them out.

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no problem, there's another great site for implied/realized volatility (on individual options and the average IV for options on the security as a whole). Also has Call/Put volumes daily. Super helpful if you ever use options and dont want to be ripped off (selling puts at times of high IV, buying them back at low IV is pretty easy to do with tesla since its IV on puts gets absurd).

Here's that site if your interested

International Securities Exchange, LLC. :: Statistics :: Quotes, Volatility & Calculator

Thumper said: ?

Squeeze is looking improbable to me. Shorts have dropped almost 20% in a week and there seem to be plenty of sellers. It will be good overall to get the speculators out and leave mostly value investors.

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Yah I agree, that 20% drop in short interest was mostly from yesterday, explains the huge volume. But the price action wasn't nearly what I expected or enough to cause the rest to panic cover, which is what you need.

Today was the slow and steady reshort throughout the day, hence its trading like crap all day. No short squeeze imminent, unless there's news. It's not going to happen.

I sold some dec 31 calls to offset a bit of my gains (about 1/5 of pos) and picked up some Jan 14 puts, 15 strike for 1.90. The puts are not because I'm bearish, but so I can sell a Jan 14 strike 30 puts for a debit spread when it pulls back (and IV rises a bit, it's reaching historical lows). I don't have the $ to just do naked puts in significant amounts, so I spreads. I'll post the trade when I do it. Planning on selling when the stock hits that new support line (at about 31.70 right now).

Repost of the chart with the new support line. I'd update it but traveling ATM. From Friday I think.
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/tsla%20openin/taking%20off.JPG

(Where the line came from and was proven)
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/tsla%20openin/11.19.JPG

Despite Tesla's terrible trading today, it's still in a strong uptrend until it breaks that support line. After today, it will likely test it at the very least. Which means there's about a dollar more to the downside at these levels, wait till it hits the line to buy calls. Then bak to resistance at 33 then only Goldman knows.

Kinda decided I'm going to pretend to be a market maker for tesla stock and enjoy the ride up. I'm relatively new to this stuff (2 years, junior at JHU majoring in applied math/econ) and only working with 7 grand for now(+margin , so take anything I say with a grain of salt.




On a completely unrelated note, I've been applying for summer internships and just found this tesla posting:
Tesla - www.teslamotors.com | High Performance, All Electric Vehicles

It looks really sweet. And seems incredibly perfect for someone like me who loves the idea of tesla and would work there but has no engineering background. Unclear if it's a summer internship though.

Anyone got any suggestions for the cover letter? Think I should mention my ventures into Tesla equity or stick with the traditional template?
If any Tesla staff read this, I'd love some tips or just info about the application process. PM or Email.

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Thumper said: ?

Squeeze is looking improbable to me. Shorts have dropped almost 20% in a week and there seem to be plenty of sellers. It will be good overall to get the speculators out and leave mostly value investors.

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Which graph are you looking at? I think the percentages are precent of daily trading volume, or something like that. Not total short interest.

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Norbert said: ?

Which graph are you looking at? I think the percentages are precent of daily trading volume, or something like that. Not total short interest.

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^
This

The charts aren't labeled very well. See how short and long always sum to 100% (which is also the daily volume)

The short % is the number of shares that are shorted in order to meet market demand. So yesterday, with a short % of 30%, that means that the majority (70%) of shares which were bought on the market came from people selling their shares of tesla stock. Only 30% of shares were short (i.e. created out of thin air). It's bullish because the shorts were not eager to increase their position (but i suspect today's number will tell a different story) but more bearish because the stock didn't move up very much, despite very little short pressure.

I'm going to write a more fluid explanation after I finish my internship applications.

But don't loose hope yet still in a super strong upward channel. If it doesn't break 31.70.

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I don't know if it is just my computer or what, but people keep writing "this" and then there is not any attachment or link attached. The only graph I saw was from way up thread.... http://www.shortanalytics.com/getshortchart.php?tsymbol=tsla It does show short going from 60% to 30% in a week, but I'm not sure how to interpret the graph. Perhaps it is just the percent on the day and not the total percent.

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"This" is usually referring to a quote above.

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JRP3 said: ?

"This" is usually referring to a quote above.

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Sometimes accompanied by a ^^^ to denote the post above.

Awkwardly though, while the poster is typing sometimes another post sneaks in before they hit send...

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Sorry if that was confusing. I also need to stop using the term Short Interest. Short Activity would be more descriptive.

Just did a recap on the Hourly and I actually still really like what i'm seeing.

https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/tsla/Screen%20Shot%202012-11-21%20at%208.31.50%20PM.png

closed above the 50 and 30 ma. just a healthy pullback imo.

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Worth posting here (sorry if I missed it):

A lot of things I have had in my mind put to paper really well.

Will Tesla Disrupt? - Seeking Alpha

Not really much pushback in the comments. Anyone here see any holes in his calcs? (JPR3's optimistic comment is noted)

I think he missed something in the Tesla-positive but can't put my finger on it.

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vfx said: ?

Worth posting here (sorry if I missed it):

A lot of things I have had in my mind put to paper really well.

Will Tesla Disrupt? - Seeking Alpha

Not really much pushback in the comments. Anyone here see any holes in his calcs? (JPR3's optimistic comment is noted)

I think he missed something in the Tesla-positive but can't put my finger on it.

Click to expand...

Really interesting article to read. Lots of work involved, and I want to thank author for writing it.

Few things I want to point out. 85kWh Model S uses ~7600 cells 46g each. That totals to ~350kg battery cells weight. Model S weight 2,100Kg.
By using cells with twice the specific energy density - how big would be weight savings? Obvious savings of cells weight, smaller battery pack, some savings of the support structure... But I do not feel that those combined would bring over 20% weight reduction, shaving off over 420kg from Model S (that is more then all cells of 85kWh pack weights!). After all you still have to carry 68kWh pack on board.

And his "optimistic" Model S shaving off 26%, or 545 kg!

$444 is a price per kWh at which TM sells extra capacity to customers. But that price include distribution, battery pack production(bigger pack cost more) and margins of premium class car. The price that TM paying Panasonic probably do not not exceed $300. Which is realistic guess, you can find li-ion cells(LiFePO4) that retails online at $400 per kWh.
So while he is talking about predictions of $125 and $175 per kWh, that is wholesale price and should be compared to current wholesale price of the cells, compared to less then $300 and not to $444. Not to mention that those prediction most likely overoptimistic to get in two to three years timeframe.
That said he used 2x multiplier in his calculations, but I still feel like reality would be less rosy.

Nevertheless awesome read.

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Zzzz... said: ?

That said he used 2x multiplier in his calculations, but I still feel like reality would be less rosy.

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Yes, I agree expecting 2x by 2015 is probably slightly unrealistic. However, eventually we'll get there. Elon sounded like the battery improvements in the next few years, for start of Gen III, will be *very* good.

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mulder1231 said: ?

Interesting, while most here are expecting Tesla to exceed the 20,000 target for 2013 and with minimum gross margins of 25%, Morgan Stanley seems to think the bar is much lower while sticking to their $47 price target.

To quote their analyst:

We think the bar for Tesla�s stock is lower than first appears. We believe a scenario in which Tesla misses its 2013 volume and gross margin target (but still gets within the ballpark) while delivering near-perfect cars to around 15,000 happy customers while achieving cash flow break-even would be a watershed accomplishment. We tell investors to just forget about doing 20k or 30k units next year. Just proving the viability of the product and the business model (even at lower levels of volume) would challenge the most critical bear case against the company.

Click to expand...

I like that thinking, and in case Tesla does achieve 20,000 or higher production volume next year, I'm looking forward to Morgan Stanley upgrading TSLA price target to the $70 level they had before.

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Just re-reading this thread, and that quote explains for me why EM was making such a point of mentioning "cash flow break-even" for Nov. 2012. MS thought it would be a "watershed accomplishment" if it were achieved sometime in 2013!!

"Watershed"; no wonder EM now feels they've passed beyond the Valley of Death. Cash flow break-even about 10X faster than the optimistic scenario MS proposed.

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tander said: ?

That's a good point. It would be nice if it's already priced in. But they still have to actually do the stock offering sometime this week right? 5% dilution should equal a 5% drop in share price but it doesn't always work that way.

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Just re-reading this thread, thought I'd correct this mis-apprehension.
If the share proceeds improve the company's worth/valuation by 5% or more, there is no true dilution. You have a slightly smaller share of a slightly larger pie, and share value is stable or higher.

But if the share proceeds are just to feed cash burn, and don't improve matters beyond staving off collapse, then dilution has occurred and per-share value drops.

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vfx said: ?

I have as well. Politically leaned far right with anti-eco sentiments, usually misguided with false information and a myopic unwavering ideology. They would consider Tesla's failure a victory.

Back at the Factory launch EVent in Oct 2011 Elon on stage talked about forces (oil?) that were (are) fighting them. I wish I knew what he was specifically referencing. At the time I figured that it would come out in the press later but nothing emerged.

- - - Updated - - -



Thanks for this analysis!

Also, the insuring of Tesla's success is part of the greater and ultimate goal of electric transportation and all of it's benefits to the USA. Obvious, I know but the core reason for the loan in the first place is worth a mention.

Click to expand...

Re-reading old comments, and thought I'd expand your universe a little.

I'm way right of center, and support Tesla enthusiastically. I think the eco agenda and assumptions are 90% dreck, and disagree with Elon's goal/analysis of oil dependance and CO2 reduction.

My conclusions, which have real-world data behind them vs. seriously incompetent primitive climate models, are that CO2 is a minute marginal player whose climate effects are trivial, readily and thoroughly counter-acted and swamped by the dominant water feedback cycles. CO2 levels, moreover, are almost entirely determined by sea water outgassing when warming (in multi-century and multi-millennium cycles) and absorption when cooling. That warming is mainly driven by cloudiness over the Western Pacific, or rather lack of cloud which permits solar heating.

CO2 levels are crucially involved with life processes; it is exploited by plants and phytoplankton which laid down coal and limestone etc. and continue to do so. These processes are almost too efficient for their own good; we are only now recovering from the near-famine levels of the previous few centuries. We and our crops would do much better at 1,000 ppm. With little or no warming effect, unfortunately: the current warming cycle is the lowest in a declining sequence since the big one that melted the ice sheets over much of the Northern Hemisphere. You won't like it if the dip currently beginning gets back to 19th C lows, or worse. Not to mention the possible overdue return of the big sheets.

As for oil, frac'ed tight oil reserves have about quintupled US reserves in the last 3 yrs., to the point that they equal the rest of the world combined. The US is doomed to be an Oil Empire for centuries to come. Obama's blocking of approvals to drill on federal lands is a trivial and temporary delay; private plays are more than enough to push capacity to the limit for many decades to come.

So, why Tesla? It's simply got superior technology, which improves energy efficiency and quality of life for all who use it.

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jcstp said: ?

in US, stop subsidizing oil-companys, stop-subsidizing Ev
It is a win for the state and win for Ev's

by the way 40 ModelS's ordered in one day in Europe!
Guess TESLA should think about a third shift in their factory! ;-)

Click to expand...

Remember that long-term TM sees its sales and market split about in equal thirds: US, EU, Asia. (I think the Asia ramp-up may be the most interesting and dynamic, when it begins!)

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Curious to know if Elon will announce cash flow positive in November or wait till the Q1 call. We are almost at the end of November now. So if there is an announcement coming it would be next week.

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avatar said: ?

Curious to know if Elon will announce cash flow positive in November or wait till the Q1 call. We are almost at the end of November now. So if there is an announcement coming it would be next week.

Click to expand...

Except that there seems to be a production slow down this last week in gearing up for Canadian Sigs and GP. It could just be the holiday though.

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avatar said: ?

Curious to know if Elon will announce cash flow positive in November or wait till the Q1 call. We are almost at the end of November now. So if there is an announcement coming it would be next week.

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No financial announcements in the 6 weeks prior to quarter's end.

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Grendal said: ?

Except that there seems to be a production slow down this last week in gearing up for Canadian Sigs and GP. It could just be the holiday though.

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The slowdown IMHO started right after the election/Q3 earnings.The frequency in which "bursting with pride"new owners posted seems one fourth of the mid october rate.Now unfortunately since the delivery spreadsheet is no longer accessible/open/whatever it might only be a feeling, but anyway....

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Odd. Good news coming? or just someone buying last minute?

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Discoducky said: ?

Odd. Good news coming? or just someone buying last minute?

Click to expand...

As usual, I have no clue. But the volume has been low, so it probably doesn't take much to change the price. I have to sell some (75-100 shares) in the next two or three weeks, so I still want it to go up some more.

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getting worried. testing that support line

https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/Screen%20Shot%202012-11-27%20at%2012.33.38%20PM.png

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agelston said: ?

getting worried. testing that support line

https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/Screen%20Shot%202012-11-27%20at%2012.33.38%20PM.png

Click to expand...

never mind. Tested and then ran. great sign.

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Something just occurred to me. I wonder if Tesla plans to open another factory to accommodate the future demand for the 3rd Gen.

In theory the Tesla factory in California can accommodate demand for approximately 500k cars.

However, I suspect at the current reservation rate, they are looking at demand for the Model S at being 30-40k per year. This will likely jump to 50-60k fairly soon. If Reservations jump by 30% Quarterly for the next 2 quarters, this will happen. I think they might come in faster. Pricing isn't even available for Europe yet. I see no reason they cannot achieve 300 reservations per day by the end of next year. 150-180 in USA, 80-100 in Europe, and 20-40 in Asia seems realistic. They currently have no significant presence in Asia and I expect this will change fairly quickly, especially with the Chinese government pushing for Electric Vehicles. Once this happens the achievable number could be much higher.

The Model S and X is a western made high end luxury sedan that packs Amazing performance, is priced competitively, and is considered to be the best car on the Road. I have a hard time believing those in the Market for a high end car won't look at Tesla.

I wonder if there is a figure for what 5-10% of the intended market in China would be?

I suspect this is more then achievable once the car is approved. As for the rest of Asia, I would love to see what possible future demand will look like. (Future demand being 1-2 years from now). I find it difficult to find a reason they won't see demand of 300-400 per day (Especially accounting for the Model X).

300-400 Reservations annualized is 109,500 - 146,000 per year. The supercharge network isn't up and running yet, and these figures appear to be reasonable. I suepect we'll see huge jumps in the reservation rate following any Positive News. I see no reason that 200-400k reservations won't be achievable for the Gen 3, especially with demand for the Model S being this high. This would put them at 500k cars per year by 2015-2016. I think these numbers may be too low. With public perception being that the Model S and Roadster are a rich persons toy, I have a very good feeling they will change their mind once the 30k car comes around. (If not sooner). A 30k Bluestar will be an undeniable value proposition. I wouldn't be surprised if demand exceeds anyones wildest expectations.

Any thoughts? I have seen the reports published by "Major Analysts" and they seem to discount the rate at which reservations are coming in. They also don't accept the 25% Gross Margins as realistic. Most seem to model for 16-18% Gross Margins and assume they won't deliver 20k cars in 2013. The "Analysis" I have seen seems to only model for 100k Gen 3 in 2016. Something seems very fishy about the "Expert" valuations. Any thoughts? If Demand is Europe is high enough, it might make sense for them to seek out another "Discounted Acquisition" which would allow to engage in further expansion. By that point they might be able to build their own from scratch with the money they'll be bringing in. 146,000 x 70,000 = 10,220,000,000 (400,000 x 40,000 or 16,000,000,000) = 26,220,000,000 x .25 = 6.5billion in profit - 1billion operating expenses = 5.5billion in earnings. 5.5billion x 20 = 110billion valuation.

The only hiccup I am able to spot is if the NADA is able to force Tesla to close all stores. I see this as very unlikely. I surely must be missing something, otherwise the media would be all over this. Am I?


Any thoughts?

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The BMW 5 series only sells a couple hundred thousand a year world wide and apparently ~50k/year in the US (source Wikipedia). You might make sure your koolaid hasn't been spiked

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I think your numbers might happen in 2020, if things go well. Gen3 will take a bit to ramp up... let's say we see first models (a few thousand) come out in 2015, and production ramps in 2016 with 100k cars produced. 2017 might see 125-150k gen3 cars, 2018 150-250k gen3 (inc. crossover), 2019 250-350k gen3 cars, 2010 350-450k gen3 cars (like your prediction).

Following your numbers of 6.5b gross revenue (inc model s/x, gen3), earnings will likely be 4b (or even less) x 10 would equal a 40b valuation (note: Ford and GM's market cap is about 40b currently). (I'm not sure where you're getting a 20x multiplier... 10x is closer to the auto industry, which isn't valued like the technology sector is.)

Again, this would be a very, very optimistic scenario.

A few other notes:
1. Entering the Asian markets might be difficult considering all the barriers to entry. I think Tesla can do it but it will take time, probably several years to get decent penetration. Ie., China, Korea, Japan markets are fairly protected IMO.

2. I don't think Tesla needs to be thinking of another factory for at least the next several years.

But overall, I'm very bullish on Tesla. I just think it'll take longer than you're expecting.

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I could be mistaken, but I think we're less then 2 quarters away from 50k per year

According to the reservations page we are currently at 80 per day in USA, 8-10 per day in Europe, and 2-4 per day in Asia. 90 x 365 = 32850 +(.30 x 32850) = 42,705 + (.30 x 42,705) = 55,516

30 percent increase quarterly may be too low. Once the supercharge network is fully up and running, the rate could easily double (And fast). Someone surely must have spiked my Koolaid

- - - Updated - - -

I agree that it may take longer then I think for them to ramp up production. This could lead to them being very supply constrained, which may increase demand even further. What company with this type of growth rate only has a PE of 10? Elon mentioned Tesla would produce "At least 20k" in 2013. He also said Tesla will have gross margins of "At least 25%". He never said what demand would be. I suspect he is under-promising and planning on over-performing. Perhaps this is the tsunami of pain he was talking about?

What types of costs would be involved with building 150-200 cars per day? How many additional workers would be needed to make this happen? Is the current factory capable of achieving this scale?

I wonder what would happen if Elon were to announce that he is raising guidance to 40k cars in 2013. Perhaps this is the tsunami of pain he was talking about?

I wouldn't be surprised if we see a bluestar beta by the beginning of 2014. I believe Elon said the secondary was to speed up production of the 3rd Gen. If this is right, the bluestar may be ready earlier then 2015.

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drinkerofkoolaid said: ?

In theory the Tesla factory in California can accommodate demand for approximately 500k cars.

Click to expand...

On the National Geographic documentary they said the factory could expand to 1M cars a year.

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blaz said: ?

On the National Geographic documentary they said the factory could expand to 1M cars a year.

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Everyone on this site should watch that Nat Geo Doc.

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It was a great video and the first look I ever had of the battery cells.

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Up 4% on the day currently. Any specific reasons?

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Possibly the word getting out that delivery volume is ramping.

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bonnie1194 said: ?

Possibly the word getting out that delivery volume is ramping.

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That would be my guess too. Cranking up production = cranking up stock price.

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Grendal said: ?

That would be my guess too. Cranking up production = cranking up stock price.

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Would think cranking up the price on the car helps too.

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vfx said: ?

Would think cranking up the price on the car helps too.

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Price changes aren't going to have any impact on the bottom line for at least 9 months though or whenever Tesla works through it's backlog of people with reservations before the price hike.

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Maybe some institution read my post and agrees

Maybe I should add a disclaimer :/

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ckessel said: ?

Price changes aren't going to have any impact on the bottom line for at least 9 months though or whenever Tesla works through it's backlog of people with reservations before the price hike.

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No, I mean that Tesla has to have some big ones to raise the price of their only car. Confidence like that may be seen by investors that Tesla either knows something or is simply riding on the hubris of the action itself.

ETA:
related
What These Risky Bets Reveal About Tesla (TSLA)


Tesla Breaks Another Rule -- Will It Pay Off? (TSLA)

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