Thứ Sáu, 28 tháng 10, 2016

TSLA Investor Discussions part 10

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    We ran into a brick wall today at the 80-day average (which has caused us trouble in the past). I thought for sure we'd break it this time considering how easily we handled the last two lines of resistance, but the news out of Spain was just perfectly timed to turn us around.

    I suspect now we will return to the 50 or 200 day averages to regroup and gather more steam before making another run at it. This means we could very well see the stock at ~$30.50 before we see $35. If it happens tomorrow, I might dip my hand in the cookie jar one last time. =)
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    I'm confident it will double.

    Just don't know in which week.

    :wink:
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    On the bright side, more smart money got in today with good volume.

    Tomorrow should be hot since it's the last session before the big event. And talking about hot, we are dying out there, 35 degrees Celsius under the shade, it's so humid, you could drink the air.

    The smart money (informed people) are getting back-in. Regular folks will start entering on Monday if the news is powerful enough. It'll be interesting to watch.
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    Of course I hope you're right. It shoots up above 50 or more and then drops back to 30 where I can re-buy more.
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    EDIT,,
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    While there may be the possibility that a member of the media might get a 10-minute test drive, it's far from certain. Tesla is seriously putting customers at the head of the test driving line. Cars for media won't be available until near the end of summer.

    There will be no Supercharger announcement on Friday.
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    Where did you get that from?
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    This was covered in other threads but from Jalopnik.com on June 14th:

    In other areas it has also been suggested that the drives for Journo's will be this weekend.
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    As excited as I am about Friday's event. I believe the noticeable impact will come next week when the media put pen to paper. There will be a flurry of articles (covering Tesla and the event) on Monday and Tuesday, like we have never seen before. In the aftermath of those articles, we'll see positive stock movement (Tues. - Thurs.). For the rest of the automotive industry, the bar was just raised so high, they can't even see it. People will be going into dealerships saying "show me a car that doesn't use gas, and has a 160 mile range". Wish I could be a fly on the wall for that!

    It'll be icing on the cake when they find out that Elon is the same guy whos' company built a rocket that resupplied the International Space Station, then safely brought experiments back to earth. "Of course he can make the best EVs anyone has ever dreamed of".
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    EDIT,,
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    Agreed!

    when to my local mercedes dealer asking them about trade in value for my car he was trying to sell me a new 1 of my slk trying to figure out whywould want a tesla. I told him someday maybe I'll be back and it will be to buy an electric mercedes and oh yeah it will be powered by tesla !
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  • 1/1/2015
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    While researching Tesla Supercharger network to feature solar panels, battery swapping I asked Tesla about announcement timing and was told "We will be deploying the Supercharger Network in the future, but no timeline has been set."

    Like I said, there may be some media test drives, but as they discuss in the Jalopnik piece, many journalists aren't so interested in a 10-minute drive, so while they might have invited some, it doesn't mean they will happen. In my own case, I am trying to decide myself whether I should spend a few hundred dollars and maybe take a day off work to fly to Miami for one myself. Even if I can swing it, Tesla customers have priority on the time slots so it's not even certain they can accommodate me.
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    I'm really looking forward to all the reviews. Too bad that Fisker guy didn't pick up a Model S too. His reviews would have been great.
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    Apparently that heat is also making you delusional :p
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    EDIT,,
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    Today is

    D DAY !

    :)
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    Today is the sucker rally.

    I don't know who's selling but they are idiots.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    And so it begins:

    Amazing how quickly a waiting list can turn into a "backlog".....

    This wouldn't surprise me either:

    And at least they finished with:

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    Thrilling times.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Took the day off and here is my setup for today. IMG_0540.JPG

    At 6:30 I might even have a beer in my hands, we'll see ;)
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    Maybe the Bieb will pick up an S and he can do the comparison. :p
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    Anyone knows who will be there? Any big celebrities getting some cars?

    Will Obama be there? That would be an extraordinary event for his campaign! Showing that DOE loans work.
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    Oh God, I hope not. We don't need politics anywhere near Tesla. Nothing could be more damaging than getting half the country pissed off at Tesla because one candidate or the other likes them.
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    lol, the keyboard warrior in his natural habitat :p
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    I hope no one political shows up. It's tough enough just dealing with the business FUD.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Yea, agreed. Tesla's success shouldn't be even vaguely be tied to politics.

    The only exception would perhaps be Jerry Brown (CA's governor) since this is a big event for his state.
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    Mayors are ok. Maybe even a governor, but please, no Senators or presidential candidates.
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    Just received an apple on the head. My Newton moment ;)
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    My thinking is: People should talk about it, in good or bad, but talk about it.

    If Obama is there, it will be all over the news. Which is good for me and my stock.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    agree with all above regarding the politics. An occasional lobbying meeting with current office holders and CA governor/mayor types on events like this are fine. Beyond that, stay out
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    If not today, Tuesday when GeorgeB promises a sort of post-mortem blog. How's your Beer supply Steph?
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    Not..
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    Untouched for now. Bottle opener alarm is set for 6h30PM.
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    I agree with Nigel- won't be getting lease program announcement until end of year; but this might be one of the relationships that eventually drive it
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    Squawk on the BEAT on CNBC today:

    [video]http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000098094[/video]
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    Press arrived:

    Untitled.jpg

    Note: Wayne Cunningham is CNET Car Tech Editor
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  • 1/1/2015
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    NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! Brian Cooley does the Car tech reviews so much better. Not sure why Wayne has been doing them lately, but my wife won't even watch them anymore.
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    Whether you like it or not:

    Untitled.jpg
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    Dutch press is present too

    #TeslaModelS brakes heavily on the engine so the (friction) are not needed often. First test lap as a passenger was spectaculair!

    https://twitter.com/carrosmagazine/status/216233940644663296
    AwA3n5TCEAE9Di1.jpg
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    He seems to have chosen a good avatar.
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    Rally into the close... Maybe these early twitter comments are helping.
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    Nigel - Thanks for the news clip. That was a pretty good segment. Just enough of a teaser to make newbies want to learn more about the car and the company.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Silly way to "invest" I know... But I just bought another 25 shares @market to celebrate the day. Anybody else want to join me? 5 min left!
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    TSLA price will continue upward in after hours trading.
    It could also move up sharply in pre-market trading on Monday.
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    I'd feel a lot better if we could close above $34. Come on TSLA!
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    Nailed it :tongue:
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    With the reviews so far I don't see how it won't bump the stock at least $2 if the Dow and global crap don't bring it down.
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    EDIT,,
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    Yea, I'll be really curious what the kick in reservations looks like after the general public starts seeing reviews in the next couple weeks. The problem with general public making reservations is we may not hear about hardly any of them here so it may be tough to judge until the next earnings call.
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    EDIT,,
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    It's getting louder as all the shorts are buying up TSLA in fear of a squeeze :scared:
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    Interesting
    I thought this would be happening much sooner.

    Also they drive your car for 100 miles before you get it.
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    guest


    This was interesting:

    "the Model S follows a similar strategy to BMW's ActiveE when it comes to regenerative braking. Instead of being triggered by the brake pedal, it only kicks in when you lift off the accelerator. As such, it's a lot like driving a manual transmission stuck in second gear and using engine braking to slow down. Where the ActiveE will turn the brake lights on as soon as you let go of the accelerator, the Model S relies on accelerometer readings to warn the vehicles behind you -- clever."

    GSP
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    EDIT,,
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    yeah, i thought that was interesting also. especially the automatic brake lights on release of accelerator...

    dream job is right Ron..!! agree great video- the quietness of the ride was so apparent
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I guess we here at TMC are going to have to get used to ignorant reviewers that have not driven Roadster.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I saw that too; barely knew what to even think, so I moved on

    Here is a nice write-up by the CNET boys- with a great pic of the rear facing seats and charging port:
    Tesla Model S first drive: Quiet satisfaction | The Car Tech blog - CNET Reviews

    posted from Seeking Alpha:
    10:10 AM The first reviews for the Tesla (TSLA) Model S start to pour in, largely on the positive side. The electric vehicle boasts impressive acceleration, a smooth ride, and a massive infotainment system cock full of delights, according to the writers. With demand for the model uncertain, and its success seen as an all-or-nothing watershed moment for the company, early buzz on the car is viewed as critical. (Reviews: Engadget, Wired, CNET) (Read the comments on this)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good summary quote from Justin Hyde (Yahoo News) after test drive:
    ��if Tesla fails, it won�t be because the Model S misfired. It�s a car that runs from the blocks with the Cadillac CTS-V, Mercedes-Benz E-Class, and Maseratis of the world, and it will be far easier for Tesla to close any gaps with the competition than vice versa. From behind the wheel of the Tesla Model S, you feel you�re driving the future, instead of burning increasingly limited gallons of the past.�

    For those just getting up; Here's a little collection of official reviews
    2012 Tesla Model S First Drive - Motor Trend - Mobile

    Tesla Model S first drive: the sports sedan goes electric (update: video) -- Engadget
    Driving the Tesla Model S Quickly, And Briefly | Autopia | Wired.com
    Tesla Model S first drive: Quiet satisfaction | The Car Tech blog - CNET Reviews
    Video: We test drive Tesla Cleantech News and Analysis
    Tesla Model S: First drive of the electric sedan that will change the world or die trying | The Lookout - Yahoo! News

    Every review I've seen thus far is positive and ranging to fantastic;
    congrates to the Tesla team!!
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    "...cock full of delights..."??? :rolleyes:
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    Teehee :)
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    This rooster has something to crow about.
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    And from USA today to reach the masses:


    First Drive: Tesla's Model S electric is spectacular
    First Drive: Tesla's Model S electric is spectacular


    Great Thanks for that post Nigel. Love the charts in front of the buy recommendation and $80 target!
    Screaming for Joy over here!!!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That's the second reference I've seen to the turn signal stalk being too close or similar to the cruise control stalk. I don't understand why the rear window seems distorted in the rear view? It doesn't seem any more sloped than many other cars.
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    It does have access to the internet after all :biggrin:
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    The comments show the intelligence of the general population. Outrageous.

    Sent from my DROID BIONIC using Tapatalk 2
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    I'm guessing it was just a typo. Chock full?
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Anybody unfamiliar with the Mercedes stalks on the left side will confuse the left turn signal with the cruise control. Most cars only have one stalk on the left and it's relatively high up. On Mercedes, the turn signal stalk is relatively lower and the cruise control stalk, while higher than a normal turn signal stalk, is close enough that it's easy to hit that one for a turn, when you're used to a "normal" car.

    I've been driving my Mercedes since last August and I still occasionally hit the cruise control stalk when I mean to hit the turn signal.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    On Audi, there's 2 stalks, but the cruise control stalk is BELOW the turn signal stalk. When I rented a Mercedes back in May, I made the cruise/turn signal mistake quite a few times (as well as being irritated and eventually accepting of the "gear" shift stalk). I think it's a poor setup, and something less-used and less-important should go BELOW the stalk that's more frequently used and more important.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    "Chock full," obviously.

    And yes, the two stalks on the left side of my Mercedes are still occasionally getting confused after years of driving. They're just too close together and the cruise control lever is a bit too long, imho. But most of the rest of the car is pretty well thought-out. Except the weird feature where the key has to be in the ignition in order to turn on the light in the back cargo area of my G55, and the switch for said light is above the driver's head instead of being triggered by opening the rear door. Which is why I've only turned it on twice in all the years I've owned it.

    One more thing. If critics of the cost of replacing batteries in Teslas are to be truthful about the real cost of maintaining comparable gas luxury vehicles, I have stacks of multi-thousand-dollar receipts for repairs I had done to my Mercedes which magically began to accumulate the MOMENT it went out of warranty. Owning luxury vehicles is expensive. That's just the way it is. Even my previous (comparatively inexpensive) BMW Z3 managed to throw its fan blade into the radiator one hot summer day, destroying several thousand dollars in parts as it tore around the front end, finally breaking free. That's just the way the cookie crumbles.
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    Ahem, guys this is the "Investor Discussions" thread.....:wink:
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    EDIT,,
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    DJI futures are now down. About as much as they were up earlier.

    It's now a complicated tug-of-war between the forces that have controlled TSLA prices up to this point. Will it do the Dow? Or will it simply be extremely volatile and subject to day trader profit-taking? Or will it begin its inexorable climb to the greatest short squeeze in recent history? I'm on tenterhooks. 8^P Good luck to us all.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    The Roadster windshield wiper stalk goes on in the wrong direction.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    So, will the stock go up because Model S is getting glowing reviews? Or, will the technical "sell the news" carry the day? Here's me thinking aloud:

    I think the short-medium bear case for Tesla is crumbling:
    - Tesla has delivered Model S on time. (I love using the past-tense there!)
    - Model S is getting glowing reviews.
    - Reservations will spike up now and continue to rise as more people take test drives and see them on the roads, so 20,000 cars next year seems very do-able, I think even to previous doubters.

    I think the only hopes remaining for shorts in the short to medium term are:
    1. Tesla has problems ramping up production.
    2. Q2 financials won't look so good.
    3. Some serious problem with the car emerges, such as a battery fire or safety recall.
    4. Another big large-scale financial melt-down.

    Of those, only #1 is the kind of thing shorters would bet on, and the case for that is too thin to literally bet the bank on. So, either shorts start to cover now, or they wait for the "bad" Q2 earnings report, or they hold on for a medium to long term bear case: Model X isn't a slam dunk success, and Gen-3 may not be the huge sales success Tesla wants it to be. But, those don't seem certain enough either way for shorters to make that bet, and in the meantime Tesla is going to turn profitable.

    The stock has previously touched $40 and the shorts really didn't cover. Will we see $40 this week? At what price do shorts start to cover, or do new people take new short positions at the mid 40's? Are there any more shares available to short?

    Sorry for the rambling - hope it was worth the reading time.
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    I'm thinking the same. I've heard TM has said one car/day production rate through July? Somehow I doubt this slow rate as all the initial Sig's have the same config so building one/day and tweaking/reworking/ECR/ECO/modifications might have an initial hit on profit margin, but that will greatly diminish after a few weeks (unless hard tool changes are necessary). Anything else would either be labor, materials or financial and I doubt they would have issues in those dept's as they have been hiring, are using mostly raw materials and have enough monies to draw on to build out 2012.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    That was the ActiveE that turns on the brake lights when the accelerator is released.

    What I thought was interesting was that the Model S uses an accelerometer to trigger the brake lights. This is an optimal solution that would not turn on the brake lights if the car is gradually slowing down (for example regen comming down a mountain), but will turn them on when slowing down at a certain rate or higher. I haven't heard of any other automaker that has done this.

    GSP
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    TSLA is doing a little better than the indexes, but I can't understand why it isn't doing even better. Definitely not a short squeeze yet
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    Ya think? :biggrin:

    I frequently see "8^P" in posts. What does it mean???

    And the small and confusing and hard-to-press cruise control buttons on the end of the turn-signal stalk make c/c very hard to use. Nearly worthless for me. Fortunately, I wouldn't use c/c on the roadster much anyway.

    Friday's event was a big deal for us Tesla boosters, but it was a non-event for the market, where it was taken for granted long before it happened, and any effect it was going to have on stock prices occurred slowly over the last few months, rendered unnoticeable under the wide price swings of the stock's volatility.

    It will continue just as volatile as the underlying base price rises very slowly along with the success of the Model S and successive models.

    (This is my opinion. You'd be a fool to make investments based on my opinion. I don't even make investments based on my opinions.)
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Glasses, nose, tongue.

    TSLA's not exactly doing the Dow today. It's got a special little volatility all its own. 8^D

    Glasses, nose, smile.

    I'm relieved that it seems to be slightly more detached from the market now.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Right.
    At the moment (10:00 a.m. PDT) TSLA is only down 0.37% and NASDAQ is down 1.93%.
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    The small cc button can be mastered with marginal dexterity ans little bit of determination. I use it to play around with mileage readings. You can get your Est. Miles about 30 miles higher than Ideal Miles . You can t hen range charge and get a read out around 260-265 for Est Miles! Haha ... Great to show the cynical gear heads who don't believe the advertising!!!

    Just need to get a bit of good music, fairly flat path (easy in MD), hour drive time ....or so ....between 35 and 50 (45 seems to work quite nicely), and the Est Miles start going up! Regen .....even a little .....increases Est M nicely. With Est over Ideal the battery charges up to 99% whereas if Est lower than Ideal it only charges to 96 or maybe 97%. Pretty weird but fun for a relaxing recovery from commuting ...... which leaves Est Miles 20-30 miles below Ideal!

    I know .... Off topic ..... my bad!
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    Not so much. :wink:
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    I admire anyone who's got the patience and dedication to drive a Roadster as though it were a VW Bug. 260 to 265 miles range? Good on ya! I'm afraid my foot likes to work that pedal. Get the estimated range down to around 170. :biggrin: 'Course, that was in winter with the heater on, after a Standard charge.
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    I wasn't expecting a lot today since I expected time for the articles/reviews to come out, but given the press that did come out over the weekend I'm a little disappointed the stock didn't budge.
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    It's a freakin' yo-yo. Every which way but up.
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    EDIT,,
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    Do you guys think they'll meet their sales target of 20k units a year? iirc, they did 1800 reservations in QI and did 1500 in Q4 of 2011. That's a far cry from the 5k reservations per quarter they'll need to meet their sales goals. Now that the Model S has been released do you really think they'll do over double the reservations they were doing before the shipments started going out?

    That's really the only think I'm kind of worried about. Will Tesla be able to dramatically increase their reservations in the next year.
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    I think they will exceed it by a good margin, in CA alone perhaps. It's really a small percentage of the market.

    by the way Jeffies Capital just released a strong Model S review statement as follows:
    "Jefferies said Tesla's Model S is the best performing performance sedan under $100K. The firm expects positive media reports on the Model S and is confident in its 5000 unit sales target"
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    EDIT,,
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    I played with the thought to move some money into TSLA that sits in a depreciating stock. Just in case that short squeeze might happens. But the stock never did what was anticipated in this thread, neither on good news, nor on chart witchcraft ("breaking the 200 day barrier" - LOL - unlike some sound barrier that can be deducted from physics). Methinks the shorts will abandon ship only when it becomes evident that Tesla turns cash positive the second or third quarter in a row. Not earlier. Neither a flawless ramp up to 5,000 cars nor an exploding reservation list will change their mind. Profits will. Nothing else.
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    Based on the test-drive reactions this weekend, no problem. The fact that Tesla has reservations for 10,000 cars without test drives tells me a lot. Get people behind the wheel, and the rate will pick up strongly.
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    I agree. Not only does Tesla have 10,000 reservations without test-drives but that is 10,000 $5,000 reservations (granted, fully refundable). That's a much bigger statement of support and interest than $99 the Leaf had. All this without traditional advertising too. Amazing. I hope they are able to keep it up. I bet they'll update the interior after the Model X arrives and take care of that concern. It will be a tough car to beat at that point.
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    Isn't it 1000 reservations at $40,000 ($40m) and 9000 at $5000 ($45M)?
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    EDIT,,
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    None of that news was unexpected. Anyone who had a serious interest in the stock, and any analyst who seriously investigated the company, knew what the Model S would be, and knew a month ago or more that deliveries would start when they did. The Roadster has been on the roads for four years, as a testament to what Tesla is capable of, and SpaceX is a testament to what Elon Musk can accomplish. So as I said before, for the market, Friday was a non-event.

    That's the sixty-four thousand dollar question. I'm bullish on Tesla. I think they'll do it. But that is indeed the next challenge they face. They need to get the production line up to speed, build and sell the cars, to show the market that they are here for the long haul. And as that happens, I think the stock will very gradually rise, though that rise will be hard to see under the inevitable fluctuations.

    I think TSLA will be 20% higher in a year to a year and a half than it is now. Am I confident enough of that to put a significant part of my portfolio in it? No, I'm not. But I'm sure not going to sell my shares, either. I'm not a risk-taker, and there are real risks of all sorts, some of which Tesla has no control over.
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    Was was unexpected (well, new) was the universally glowing reviews.

    George B mentioned in an interview, I think at the 6/22 thing, that based on the results coming out of the new stores that 20k was no problem. That lead me to believe they've got decent numbers on traffic vs. reservation rates.
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    I'm not trying to rain on Tesla's parade or anything but I'm just wondering what Tesla is going to do in order to increase sales. If they're relying on the coverage they've gotten from the media to more than double their reservations, well I don't think that by itself will be enough to increase awareness among non-enthusiasts.

    I read an article that said they plan on opening 12 more stores by the end of the year. They already have 22 stores. Personally I think Tesla's product is excellent and if they were able to educate the public about electric cars then they'd be flying off the showroom floors. I just don't know if they're doing enough right now that will spur their sales to over double their sales they were doing before the release.

    If they started a Volt-type advertising campaign then I think that would definitely increase awareness. But if they're solely relying on the media's coverage and opening a few stores then I have my reservations. Time will tell, but at least they have the 10,000 back order right now.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    When Toyota first brought the Prius to North America in 2000 (2001 model year), they did very little advertising and got terrible reviews (perhaps because they did very little advertising--I have one of those early ones and it's still a great car). Most of the Prius success is due the early Prius owners showing and bragging about their car. I believe that Tesla owners will do the same. You really only need advertising when you are up in the 100,000+ cars/year (or have a bad car).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Right, but look at the dealer networks that any of the big automakers have compared to Tesla. Tesla has 22 stores; the big automakers probably have 22 dealerships in the Los Angeles area alone. The comparison doesn't really fly because of the huge network of dealers that Toyota and other big automakers have.

    Many of the 10,000 reservations that they have right now are enthusiasts and people that have been following Tesla for the last 3+ years. I'm just wondering if we can capture the regular joe who doesn't know anything about EVs. The good thing is that I have a lot of confidence in Musk and Blankenship so that eases my worries a lot.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    With the internet there is just a lot more free "advertising", good products sell themselves. As more Model S's show up in the wild with enthusiastic owners raving about them demand could spike quite significantly. At this point spending dollars for ads on a sold out product makes no sense.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think there are a huge number of untapped "enthusiasts". I found out about the Model S accidentally when talking to someone who knew about it. Ironically, he hasn't reserved yet and I reserved almost immediately (Jan 2011).

    My reasons aren't because it's green or because it's not gas, but because I love a great car and being a software geek I really appreciate technology. Tesla has a huge market just in the tech folks, who make good money. I'll be giving at least a dozen people test drives and Tesla will be in a bunch of major malls. It's not hard to see it going "viral", people seeing a Tesla, seeing the store in a mall, checking things out, etc.

    I have zero doubt in my mind at least one or two of the people I show the car to will end up ordering. Multiply that by the current 10k reservation holders and Tesla should be in good shape.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was at the dentist this afternoon for a routine checkup. My dentist, who had not been thinking about electric, is really excited about the S and is heading to Santana Row this weekend. He was planning on getting a new car in a year and is in love with the S.

    I agree with ckessel. People will be buying this car not because they are an EV enthusiast, but because they frickin' LOVE this car.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I even talked my parents, who are close to retirement, into getting a Model S. Granted, they never would have know about Tesla (at this early point) if I didn't have one but they're really excited and going to show all their friends. It will definitely open the car up to a group that normally wouldn't see a Model S for a long time given where they live.

    I also have many people at work who ask me non-stop 'is your car here yet'? I don't even have to bring it up. Granted only a small percentage of those people will buy a Model S but I bet I've got at least one more Model S sale in me this year.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Also, I think there's some "settling in" for Tesla in terms of market niche awareness. I keep seeing articles, over and over, talk about the Nissan Leaf's sales. Ok, I get it, it's an EV, but I think they authors completely have it wrong. The Model S isn't in the Leaf market niche. It'd be like comparing the BMW 5 series to the Camry...it's just not apples and oranges.

    Once Model S buyers, who are undoubtedly financially secure overall, start showing it to their friends, it should become clear comparing the Leaf to the Model S makes no sense.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    They will increase their sales via test drives at the stores! I'll wager that based on the reviews and feedback seen here, the wait for the Model S will quickly escalate to 12+ months by the end of the year. I've talked to many people that said if the car drives well, they will buy it. More stores equals more people in the car and more sales. You can't sell the skeptics without the test drive.
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