Thứ Sáu, 28 tháng 10, 2016

Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements part 46

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

    Me too, only I spent the rest in short term puts this morning. I hope that is wasted money.

    My feeling is the same as jte if we break 200.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Betting the ranch is never a good idea. I think we break 200 in 1st hour of trading, and then the fall could extend to 183, followed by 151 ... long term 300 price target is still in tact. You have to have the stomach for this volatility and manage the risk in your total portfolio or you very well could be "knocked out" !
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    In that case, I hope there's more FUD released from analysts, news of the D getting delayed, cheaper oil, and anything else that can be thrown at us so we can get in cheaper.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    for sure, we could use a tweet or a blog post right about now. It sucks to see it happen but I feel like if I ride out even this short term pain, it'll be fine.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think Tesla is at a bargain price. What worries me is that the market can still fall a long way.

    I've taken defensive moves by rolling my options to longer term expiry dates and closing some bull call spreads (selling higher strike calls). But I haven't placed any new bets and am keeping money in the sidelines... I want to make sure the market doesn't fall under our feet.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I've gone offensive and rolled in half my 2017s into March 260s. Maybe I'm crazy, but I think now is the time to be offensive, when we were hitting highs was a time to be defensive.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This thread is not showing up as read for me. Maybe if I post it will fix it...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Is this tread broken? The investor's section shows people posting but they don't appear for me...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    (thread repair post)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am confused, the little ticker thing is colored green instead of red like usual. What does it mean?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And we made it through without one haiku.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I just bought some 200-250 spreads for 20 bucks. Pretty sure we will hit 250 within the next 2+ years so seems rather safe to me...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think we've seen the bottom at 204,32. If I had the cash I'd buy more like now.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What are the 'magic' support levels from ath (291.42)?

    Sqrt(2) gives 206.06
    Fib (61.8%) gives 180.10
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I see you got too excited...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That's a couplet, not a haiku ;-)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I just want to go on record and say... I miss the 290s. I hope this time next year I say... I miss the 500s
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I too miss the ATH spirit. Last I recall back then the TMC gang was in limerick mode. in hopes of regaining the TSLA mojo, thought we could bring back the spirit.
    :biggrin:
    There once was OPEC squabbles, dragging down price of oil.
    Journalists cried fowl on Tesla, bringing its shareholders to boil.
    Like comparing oranges to apples, can't they see there is no relation?
    People buy Teslas for performance and safety, driving one's like taking a mini-vacation.
    Soon the price of oil will be next to free,
    Although it will no longer matter, since we'll all be driving Tesla EV.
    :biggrin:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't recognize the meter. Are you going freestyle?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Here a limerick:

    There once was a man who sold oil
    For fifty cents and some soil
    He said it'd spell doom
    For electric car zoom
    But that torque would his plan grandly foil

    Will it work the other way around? We should composing poetry of what a great short TSLA is and maybe that will turn it around the other way.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It took 5300 posts, but it's now clear why the social short term thread exists. For poetry :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Obligatory reminder that there is a poetry thread Tesla Poetry / Limericks / Haiku - Page 7
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The meter is a little broken in this, and the subject a bit dated:

    There once was a man named J.P.
    Who perched by Swiss lakes royally,
    �Why drive an EV,�
    Quoth he from his Audi,
    �unless with an Axion battery?�
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Oh no, not again.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Untitled.jpg
    the batteries don't seem to hold their charge very well?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Aaaaand we've been dropping steadily since the poems were posted today. Way to go, guys. :frown:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Somebody post the opposite of poetry! Technical manuals? Minutes from the Fed meeting?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Robert, I request half seriously and half in jest that, in the future, you delete all poems or send them to snippy thread! :biggrin:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No, especially when you consider that there was a 50:1 reverse split in September. The stock's ATH was $6 (=$300 adjusted for the split). I have to feel a little sorry for the company.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is a bit of a hijacking, but why are they doing so poorly? There seems to be a niche for big heavy batteries. Logically it should be possible to optimize for light, dense, expensive batteries (LiIon) and heavy, not-dense, cheap for the utility market.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    IMO, cost. I was looking for a stationary storage solution (MW-scale, for a commercial power plant), and Axion's offering was surprisingly expensive. Until they can move down the economies-of-manufacturing-scale curve, they aren't price competitive, but they can't move down the curve unless they get sales volumes. Tough place.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    up to 210 lets go up today!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    A real Champion today:)
    loor.jpg
    Update: Didn't make it to the close:(
    Next week, next chance!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I do not like this bloodbath and I am ready for it to stop.

    Anyone making large moves today in either direction?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No big moves. Just still DCAing J17s 200/240; I did buy puts last week..for protection....They are up but not protecting very well.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Same here... My puts aren't doing a good job with protecting me from this downturn. I'm inclined to buy more. Anyone have an opinion on that?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Really ready for it to stop. What completely kills me is that I correctly picked the top in the $290's. I sold EVERYTHING and went to cash. Then it dipped like 5% and I bought back in because I am incorrigible bull.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Same here. I sold out of everything at 280s and took a breather, went in big in the 220's, thought I nailed it when we floated back to the 250's. Boy was I in for a nasty surprise!

    So ready for this tide to turn in our favour. Unfortunately my short term calls (Jan and March) are decimated.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am (probably stupidly) still adding J17 LEAPS for every $10 drop. I realize I am catching the knife, but it WILL eventually go back up and I want to ride the whole wave down and up. I'll probably add some on the way up too...hopefully sooner rather than later. :(
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No big moves but I would considering picking up a few more options in the $170s. I am not predicting it would get there but if it does that would be the next time I add to my position.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I thought I got an amazing deal on stock at $238... it's not looking so great right now...

    The past week or two has been pretty depressing, my overall portfolio has lost a lot of value (not just Tesla), and the Canadian dollar has also plummeted leaving my dream of buying a Model S with the investments looking further and further away...

    Well, it won't last forever, I just hope I don't take too much of a beating along the way...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm glad we retook 200. Let's hope that was the bottom. And hope for a fast recovery.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Oil is rocketing up on strong volume simultaneously. /CL and /QM are tickers for those of you with ThinkorSwim, or USO is an ETF for those of you without direct access to commodities prices.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is the strongest indication yet that TSLA is quite closely linked to oil prices. Both slowly but continuously drifting down doesn't tell us much, but TSLA immediately following oil in a sharp upward turn is very suggestive. Look at the first peak USO reached, 11:02. Brief downturn, after the peak, and TSLA's rise also stopped momentarily. As soon as USO settles at a still-positive level, TSLA's rise continues. USO's next big rise and settle at a high level prompts TSLA's next big rise too. Huge cross-correlation.

    To me this strongly backs up that we are at highly discounted prices and that it's a good time to buy. If the oil slump has contributed to the majority of the recent slide, it might have taken around 20% off the stock value, while the effect on TSLA's demand will be minimal. I highly doubt that average consumers' lifetime savings of having a Tesla falling from $8000 to $4000 will dent demand enough to justify a 20% drop in share price, even for Model 3. Then of course the lower oil cost also reduces the cost of manufacture and shipping, so some of the reduced demand will be made up for with higher margins.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    At this point I am not doing options at all. I'm just buying. I'm having trouble with the options making sense to me right now with the way option interest looks.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My USO puts are a 4-bagger and climbing. :eek:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Barely hanging on to $200 now.

    I can't see how TSLA will hit max pain of $232 in 3 days. Or has the max pain dropped that much since last Friday?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's skiing season, and TSLA is clearly on a double-black-diamond hill. :mad:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Max Pain has dropped a great deal. Shorts are collecting on their bets and driving the number down. Calls are being added deeper ITM too.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    ??? Max pain is at $230, not much of a drop. I think that most options players accepted losses at this point. Max pain for next week is $220. Anyway, I'm surprised how easily Tesla blew through the 200 day AND the $200 marks.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Basically this down slope had no resistance and no rebounce at all. I sense the MM is selling firmly. Frankly speaking, I'm nervous now and I'm afraid TSLA is going to have 50% correction towards $150 range. If we see a nice rebound in coming weeks, that might be a good chance to offload positions.

    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    MM is selling firmly? Can you elaborate on that. I don't quite understand it. It's year end. Like I keep repeating big moves will not be made until Jan.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Without some big hands selling firmly, how come the stock price falling like a rock? It would be nice not to have big move towards year end, but it's falling almost everyday since Thanksgiving. I have BIG worry for those lofty $300+ PTs, once some "dummy" analysts figure out that those PTs are not reachable in 6-12 months, are they going to cut the PTs?

    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm showing Max Pain at 220 on my model for this week at this point.

    - - - Updated - - -

    The MM just want to make money on the "action" and some will want to take out the most options when they can.

    I agree about next year. Funds will want to show it in their portfolios for next year. No need to dress their windows with TSLA for the end of this quarter. They are probably waiting for the best price they can get in the new year.

    Lots of newsy things going on in 2015 plus increased production capacity and good price targets will make those fund managers look smart next year.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Those price targets could be hit easily. Just look at the price from last December.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm finding that sleeping until the market closes reduces stress from seeing red numbers. I'm already all in so might as well not worry too much about it.

    That said I might rebalance and do some share replacement soon, though I'm also thinking about tax consequences at the end of the year.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I share your sentiments. Almost to a T lol
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have been just keeping my accounts closed for most of the day, except for the few times in the past 2 weeks I've opened and bought a call or two for jan 2016.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Answer is actually "yes". The only evidence supporting that they're not behind the bans are the words of the Republican Party chairman that his party stands for free markets. The actual policies implemented by the party show the opposite.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    All in all, that probably just means that auto companies donate more $$$,$$$ to Republicans than Democrats.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    For mejojo and anyone else who needs to remember what a green day looks like.

    Greenday.jpg
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Green Day looks like THIS (NSFW profanity): http://youtu.be/99PwfIzMzr0

    After Green Day's set at the iheartradio festival was cut 20 minutes to give more time to Usher, Green Day lead singer Billie Joe Armstrong unleashed a profane tirade on stage, smashed his guitar, and insulted Justin Bieber. As the band exited, Armstrong said "m&(&$/-&ing love you all! We'll be back!"

    TSLA is back!!! (Or the markets are, at any rate).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    TSLA up in premarket on very low volume, + 5 USD to 211. Will be interesting to watch.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looking good in premarket. Now +7.
    Glad I grabbed some shares yesterday.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It is amazing how many puts were added at 205 and below today.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Added more Friday morning at 205. What to do? By investing rules, TSLA is too large proportion of net worth. I'm not smart enough to do something better with the money if I pare down! "Problem" is only going to get worse in the next few years. How do others handle this?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    same boat... but Tesla is the only 'stock company' I actually believe in.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Rules do not apply to TSLA. You found a golden nugget. Forget diversification.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    10+% in two days...exactly what the doctor ordered :) :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I diversified again this week. I own some SPWR options again. So now I'm 95% tsla and 5% spwr.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Next is to test the 200 DMA at about 230. That will be tough without any news.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's no difference from 100% TSLA :wink:

    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    just sold my 4 Dec 20 $220's for scrap value because i didn't want to have them expire $0.01 in the money and have a headache taking possession of the shares. watch them soar now!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well done. How about next week?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Keep in mind that if any week would be affected by max pain it was this previous week due to the 3 combined option expiration (weekly, monthly and quarterly). I would expect less control over things next week but wouldn't rule it out entirely.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thank you. I'm showing 210 now, but confidence is very low. It could swing a great deal very quickly because there is little variation in option interest at several strike prices.
    Lots of unusual variables with the holidays and last week's run up. I think I'll sit out next week.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No need for news IMO. It's just that TSLA is going to become "don't care" with respect to the oil prices and then the 200 DMA will be got. My 2 cents.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Anyone else watching for it go to below 200 and buy last week (mid Dec 2014)?

    It sure seemed like TSLA was going down (it had been up to 292 or so) and last week it was down to 206, then high 190s. I grabbed some more shares, and now it is up to 220s. So I am figuring I wasn't the only one to think that the price going below 200 was a "sale." Were others of you watching for that and saw that as an opportunity?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes. Several people in the 'Short-Term TSLA Price Movements' thread did this. Personally I bought shares at around $220, on the way down. Made for 2 unpleasant weeks but I don't think the slide really shook anyone's faith in the company's fundamentals.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Funny enough, after the mid-October "sale", global, local, company circumstances and the media FUDdy-duddies made relying on my trusty old plastic ruler feel somehow wrong (it was GREAT for the first 5 purchases!).

    Feeling a bit lost (Nov. 5), I just divided the play money in my account (less ~$20) by the number of shares I wanted (to get to a nice round number) and set a GTC order as a sort of placeholder while I continued to ruminate on price movement. $196.29 was a totally arbitrary trigger price that I didn't think would actually get hit.

    SURPRISE!!! :biggrin:

    So no, I wasn't watching for it, but yes, it was a nice opportunity!

    Happy Tuesday!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Merry Christmas, investment friends on the internet. :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    +1 from one who benefits greatly from all the advice/opinions I read here on TMC.....Feliz Navidad and Happy and safe 2015 (and wishing for PT for TSLA of 300+ in 2015):wink:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And best wishes for a prosperous New Year.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    A happy and safe holiday season and best wishes for the coming New Year, to all!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    + 1 :smile:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Merry Christmas from Toronto! Looking forward to seeing $300+ in short order as well!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    elon latest tweet

    @elonmusk: Roadster upgrade will enable non-stop travel from LA to SF -- almost 400 mile range. Details tmrw. Merry Christmas!

    @elonmusk: Should mention that a battery pack upgrade is not coming soon for the Model S, but it obviously *will* happen long-term.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Happy new year! Thank you all for contributing to our great TMC forum. It is of great value :smile:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, I just sold off a bunch of far OTM options (20 contracts, I think) to get the losses, planning to buy some back in 31 days, still have a pretty good delta on TSLA but I guess I sort of hope we stagnate before quarterly earnings (which will be after my wash sale period is over, so I can speculate on them if I like). I guess this means I'm out of any auto show speculation, but would still be happy if something happens, since I still have plenty of TSLA left.

    I did buy a 5 contract bull call spread on dec 9th, but closed it today for a very small profit, so I think that shouldn't affect any wash sales since even though it was opened within 30 days, it was closed today. I know wash sales count 30 days after and prior though, and since I bought a call and sold a call, it could trigger just about anything...but if I closed that position then that should mean the purchase on dec 9 doesn't really count, right? Does anyone know how that would work? Even if it does, since I sold 20 contracts and the spread was 5, then at least I still have only a partial wash sale.

    I figured I might as well close the positions now, and then if something changes within 30 days, I can always buy things back and then just deal with the taxes as they come. It's not the end of the world if I have to pay some taxes, was just trying to balance out my large ST gains this year with ST losses.
    �
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