Thứ Sáu, 28 tháng 10, 2016

Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements part 41

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, still quite mad about not buying yesterday with the power outage here, my orders which I hoped might happen at open didn't go through because we gapped up so much, sigh. But at close today I bought a nov 22 260-290 spread, not sure why. Break even is about 268. I feel like people might be expecting a delivery miss, but I think they will hit guidance very closely.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Fluxcap - Great mind think alike, I guess mine's just a little faster though :biggrin:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Based on today's action and ongoing rumors, I think we will see a small run up in share price as speculators buy on the rumor.

    The invites that went out today for the October 9 event strongly hint at a Model X Beta reveal in addition to the P85D launch. The fact that Model X Signature reservation holders are receiving invites implies to me that the X will be there, because it would be a tremendous annoyance for those folks to attend the event and not see the X.

    Steady run up until the close of market on the 9th, slight dip on profit taking the next day, then holding until Q3 earnings. Where the stock goes after that depends on meeting guidance and future guidance.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thats good info, I didn't realize it was signature X holders who are getting the invites primarily...is that confirmed by more than a couple Sig X holders and perhaps part of a thread on this forum somewhere?


    just did some research and found this thread..
    Is the X Finally Here? ( - Page 2

    if you look at post 12 there is a sig s owner who I don't believe is a sig X owner that got the invite....I could be wrong bt I think it's just all sig s and x owners are getting the invite as they are considered VIP supporters
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, Signature S customers are definitely getting invites too. I didn't mean to imply that they'd been left out!

    Not sure on the invite status of Roadster owners.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is correct from everyone I have 'talked' to about the event. I still am skeptical that there will be an X reveal. VERY short notice for people to make work changes/travel plans. Does anyone know what type of lead time was given to the model S reveal??
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is my concern, that people will rush to the event expecting the X, and not see it. The tweet from Elon about "Something else" sounds too much like "One more thing"� it makes me expect the X even without concrete proof that it will be presented.

    No Model X at the October 9 event would probably tank the stock in the short term. That would be a "sell on the [no] news" event. Long term probably no effect, but short term traders beware!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My thought: The 'D' is all the Driver assist, including self parking; after showing that off, Elon steps out of the car and says, 'Oh, something else': steps back into the car and goes 0-60 in 3.5 seconds, and comes back and says 'the super P85D S' with dual motors, 600 hp, and 0-60 in 3+ seconds is here.

    Knowing the X would be there would get me to drop just about anything and attend, but not knowing...No.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah the unknown about the something else I like my options right now and will happily sell them off on the 9th (or sooner) before market close and be happy with that run :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Another possibility.... forum member Trev Page posted something I'd forgotten about:

    http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/36465-About-time-to-unveil-the-D-and-something-else/page38?p=774630#post774630

    The Roadster. Elon had stated previously that Tesla was planning something special for Roadster owners, but gave no specifics. A retrofit for the Roadster that includes a larger improved battery pack AND Supercharger access would be an interesting "something else". I think the stock would tank a bit if this is the surprise, but personally I would be very happy to see the Roadster owners to have an upgrade option.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    As a Roadster owner I'd be happy with that, but as a shareholder I'd be very unhappy. I like it (from both viewpoints) that they are going to "do something for Roadster owners", but an event like this has to be about the bigger markets. A Model 3 concept reveal would be huge.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Roadster owner, haven't gotten one. Bought mine used though (from tesla).

    Also they said many times that roadster supercharging isn't possible. Plus supercharging would make a 400mi battery even more unnecessary than it already is. Still waiting out for them to offer a smaller roadster battery, myself.

    And as for 600hp which someone said, I don't believe that's possible with the current battery. More torque at zero and faster to 60 seem likely though.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's pretty clear Tesla wants the event to be about the "D" version of the Model S, so the "other" thing would have to take second billing: Roadster upgrade, autopilot, etc. They'd save something else major for its own event.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not if they're taking a page out of Apple's "One more thing..." playbook.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I doubt that Elon would entice the media so much, invite Model X and Model S signature owners to an event, only to deliver less than expected. That's not Elon's style. It's possible we could see more than we expect, including a look at the new Model 3. I'd hate to be low on tsla stock if that event happens.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think you mean "CA Sig S", and only some of them. Definitely hasn't reached this Sig S owner in WA.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Totally didn't know he is a model.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Me either, but I'm glad Tesla was able to pick him up before the Ford agency grabbed him.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    haha, good one!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    IMO, "one more thing" should not be a Model 3 anything. There is no need to build up additional demand for anything that can't be delivered within twelve months.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If Tesla follows their own history... We will get the Beta Model X reveal, then the Model 3 prototype... Not the other way around. So I would agree Model 3 is unlikely at this point, but will likely come within the next few months. Maybe even before the Model X is fully released. Note that they showed the Model X before the first delivery of the Model S happened and that turned out OK. If the Model 3 is a mid-sized sedan, I would suggest that it will have almost no impact on a large CUV... two totally different target audiences.

    I would be more worried about the Model 3 canibalizing potential Model S sales than anything, but everyone knows that the Model 3 is coming, so if they have decided to get an S today, then any news about a Model 3 happening in 3 years won't affect their decision to buy today. Any potential "lost" sales due to a concept release would be made up by increased brand recognition and news stories by people who can not only afford a Model S/X but would actually go and buy one.

    Keep in mind that there are still so many people here in the US who have never even heard of Tesla, many who have maybe heard about it, but never seen one and don't even think you can get one. So better awareness about the company all around will only serve to increase sales as they get more market penetration.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Is anyone aware of a live video feed link to the Hawthorne event, yet?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Chickensevil, I agree with you that a Model X unveiling is more probable than a Model 3 debut. The main point I'm making is that the potential exists for the stock to do very well the next day. Active traders and less active traders may play this event differently. The risk involved in Thursday's event is lighter for long-term investors than for active traders if both are fairly heavy in stock holdings on the night of the event. A "miss" for long-term, less-active traders means a wait of a few more months before the models are revealed and the inevitable upward movement in stock prices takes place.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Can someone explain why the simple reveal of the Model X is expected to increase share price on its own? The idea of a Model X is a known entity and its actual existence should be entirely baked in by now. Unless it has amazing features that are unexpected or demand numbers are given at the time of the reveal, I just don't see why it will increase share price significantly (a small bump due to increased interest but no major spike). If it wins major awards and/or high demand or numbers are announced then the stock price should react.

    I would like to see a major jump when it gets revealed but I don't see the rationale as everyone knows it will get revealed eventually and will have certain known features - AWD, falcon wing doors, etc. Please educate me.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think some investors are just looking for an excuse to buy. This event might just be the right excuse.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Perhaps the share price will get bumped on unveiling the Model X for the simple reason that the public/investors at large will see that Tesla Motors is progressing and everything is on schedule. When it comes to TSLA, the investing community (besides us at TMC) might not be that convinced about Teslas great future and this event might just cement that even more. Also I'm sure the Beta prototype, whenever unveiled, will be breathtakingly amazing.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, it might or might not be amazing, but I don't think that's the important thing. At this point the Model X should have already been shipping according to the timelines from a while ago. Showing a Beta should reinforce that there is a real car there, and it will start to ship soon. This is an important message.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Anyone trading the event with a particular strategy? I'm considering a strangle.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think that is a wise move. Personally I have some OTM lottery tickets that I fully plan to lose my money on. 280 and 290 for this Friday.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm thinking the same thing only slightly modified. Buying calls to puts at a 2:1 ratio.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, so far, the pattern held up a 3rd time. We hit around $236 a week ago and bounced off it pretty well.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Potential additional revenue imo: Tesla release apparel product with Model S silhouette, with the text "Unveil the D" I bet most Tesla fans would buy that. I would..
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I still hold my core stocks, and I'm fully loaded (still some use of margin) with Jan 16 calls from really DIM, to some more risky ones. I do hope for a Beta X to roll in as "something else". I think more than 20 000 reservation holders are impatient to see the X, and when they finally see it, I believe they will buy more stocks. It will also strengthen my own belief, too keep my money in TSLA.
    Something else; I got the EU Model X Signature #573 this morning :smile:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think we see the AWD MS, AWD MX, possibly a more powerful battery option and a live streaming demo of future driver assist technology to come. Maybe they'll use the airport in some way to show the demo. Something like the battery swap event. I doubt we'll see the M3 car since it is still too far away and wouldn't make sense. I'm an MS P85+ owner and MX reservation holder and was invited to attend. I'll be there.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I need a stream of this lol
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No X reveal tomorrow, per a Vanity Fair Elon interview clip released today. On phone or I would link it.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    He says the internet has "guessed the direction, but not the magnitude", which leads me to believe it's basically announcing a super car. Whoopee.

    Curious what the something else is. Elon said giving the letter would make it too obvious.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think that Elon meant some kind of fundamental shift in the way people drive, or a feature that people have guessed, but really underestimate the long-term implications.

    This will either be a WOW! moment, or few will understand and many will be confused.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Based on what we all think we know about what is coming, it was too risky for my November options that were doing really great, so I bailed on them today, but I have set up a healthy straddle of basically pennies to play tomorrow if we go up or down. My biggest risk is that the people that have been forcing the stock to close around 260 all week are going to decide to bail out of their game and let the stock do something tomorrow. But there is too much of a downside risk that I had to take those November options off the table. (I made like 160% on one, and 130% on the other, so not too shabby).

    My current setup has the 292.50 contracts I bought early in the week, these are almost definately going to lose all the money I put in them. and then Today I did a 245/277.50 straddle that favors upside. I really think tomorrow is going to move heavily in one direction or the other. So we will see what happens. If all of this becomes worthless then overall I still make out pretty good for the week. If the stock moves heavily one way I will also be pretty happy :D

    My only regret on all of this, is I sort wish I would have done the straddle on next week's options instead of this week, just so if the stock goes flat I could have recovered some cash instead of going totally worthless, but I am still happy with where I sit I think.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't know but the protective puts I bought this morning might get sold soon. They are up 150%. If I do I'll buy the same amount a few strikes lower. That will pay for the wild card through the roof calls I bought for tonight's event if it's out of the park awesome.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That's what I already did, I timed it decently around the last bottom at around 1PM, and then re-bought some puts back again at a lower strike at around 1:45 PM close to the top of that last hump. For once I actually timed something decently... So wherever we move from here, I feel pretty good again, and sorta just want this day to be over haha.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I sold them for 238% gain. Bought the same amount 2 strikes lower, and used the rest (-50% original investment) to buy some 270 weekly calls.

    I hope the market likes Elon's D event. I hope he pulls a black swan out of his hat. (I'm listening to the book so now I know that black swans go both ways.)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Isn't it black swan/white swan?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So far the idea is that white swans are common. But it's rare to see a black swan. And those are the events that can make tons of money for people that are positioned correctly. It's a rarity to see one and catch one.

    I'm taking it so far that it's outlier events.

    Subtitled: The impact of the highly improbable.

    UPDATED: some of the black swan events listed so far in the book.

    1987
    Tech boom in late 90's
    Google
    9/11
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, long strangle in place. Hopefully I will make something unless we stay very flat at this price, which I think is unlikely. We shall see!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I intended to go into this evening's event with a strangle in place. However, I legged in with my puts first, around 12:30 EST and managed to time the huge dip around 1:00 almost perfectly. So, I decided to sell the put leg immediately for around 300% gain, buy my $265 calls as a "free" lotto ticket and sleep well knowing that I've already come out ahead on this trade no matter what happens tonight / tomorrow.

    Here's hoping for some great news and a pop!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Does this seem more like a bug rather than a feature to anyone else? :)

    From USA today article
    �The car reads speed-limit signs and adjusts the car to the speed on the sign.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I figure you can configure it to say 10% over or something. There are places where driving the speed limit will get you rear ended.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    "Tesla owner gets rear-ended multiple times in the same day on Houston freeways for going below the speed limit + 10."
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I've seen a few signs where somebody used spray paint to turn a sign from 55 to 88, or 155. I hope the car is smart enough to know that there are no speed limits that high.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hehe.

    I want to see what the firmware says when it detects higher than 155.

    "I'm sorry, Dave, ..."
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Really struggling to decide if I should just sell off my options on open or hold out for a couple hours... they expire today, so I probably shouldn't mess around too much huh?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Puts or calls? Or both???
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Oh was just talking about the Puts, I decided to bail on one of the trades which was a 250 Put, and still holding onto some 240 Puts. Kinda wish I would have just sold them both on the market opening, but it's ok.

    The calls I fully expect to end up worthless at this point, but the puts I already sold have more than paid for everything else to possibly just go worthless.

    I think right now, I am just going to set a limit order on the 240s where if the price dips down to about 239/238 range it should trigger the sale and if it doesn't go there, then oh well.

    I am now contemplating what to do for Nov/Dec timeframe... but happy to just sit on cash for the moment.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ok, bought some medium term calls that are slightly itm at SP $244.
    I duno, this looks like mm wanted to push this down, imo no real reson.
    Once implications of yesterdays event (improved electric powertrain, autopilot already in production) for Model X and Gen 3 sink in, this will probably move SP up.

    - - - Updated - - -

    The German media echo about the new features is not positive and in this special case here devastating and unfortunately not quite correct:
    https://translate.google.de/translate?sl=de&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=de&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.n-tv.de%2Fauto%2FNeuer-Tesla-D-powert-auf-alle-Raeder-article13758001.html&edit-text=

    By the way, do you see the same as I can see on the above web page?!
    In second menu bar line the are three items (what the hell, BMW?! Is this advertising?!):

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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Figured this was going to happen after seeing polls this week with over 40% of people saying it was going to be a new car/ model x reveal.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I thought there would be an X, but not a 3. Even with neither of those present, I was very very impressed with last night. And I thought I wouldn't be happy if X wasn't there �
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So yeah, I ended up exiting out of all of my puts finally when my limit order triggered. I in no way caught the bottom, but I still made out like a bandit on today's price action so I am really happy with these past two weeks of trading. My calls for today will likely expire worthless and I don't care one bit :D

    Now, I just need to take a step back, not trade anything else for the day, and accept these past two weeks for what they were and leave it alone.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good trade. And regardless, it's not like one could ask for a refund or do-over anyway, right? :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I didn't make out like a bandit but I did manage to make some money, and my strategy was heavily leaning towards a gap up.

    I learned a lot from this week and I think I might have a new strategy for playing events like this. Had the stock recovered well today (still has that potential but I very highly doubt it) I would have made out like an army of bandits for no risk after I finished my trades this morning. Right now the stock is at its worst possible place for the trades I made today yet I still made money. At the end of the day I will post my new strategy in the advanced options thread.

    I think collectively with the strategies many of us had for the day we could really fine tune some nice plays based on similar price action.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Don't hesitate to post those strategies here also Shadows!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Doubled my '16 300 strike leaps position today, since I bought originally at 23, and added more today at 27. Originally bought the 300s as part of a spread with some 500s, but bought those back a while ago.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What's your style?

    • Normal
    • Sport
    • Insane
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My experience is with events like this, you get the results 2-3 weeks out.
    As a Model X reservation holder I was hoping for a view of the X, but when I saw the D :cool:, and knew that was the platform of the X, just with only another shell, my belief was kept in place.
    I bought 2 x '16 200calls and 2 x '16 250 calls today, and will buy more, if price goes down :smile:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The media/market is irrational. I am holding some March 2015 and January 2016 calls. Once I have sold these I will only add to my shares. While I am certain Tesla will be successful long term, I am convinced the media will never give Tesla nor Elon Musk an objective accounting.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am curious if anyone has a case for a decent rise before the Q3ER? Decent rise being back to the $260 level pre ER. I don't unless we get a large positive catalyst (model X reveal, preannouncement of beat on guidance). I see us in the 230-240 range unless we get a big catalyst and with the factory not being up to full capacity as quickly as TM predicted (hoped for?) I don't see a 'beat' on guidance for Q3.

    I an hoping someone can see a way back to ATH before the model X reveal which may be late into Q4 or early Q1 2015. I am a long term bull but short term I am just hoping we hold 230-240 up to Q3 ER and hoping we don't need the support of the 200 DMA after the ER/CC.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think you're right, and my suspicion is that it's mainly because of two things.

    The first is that Elon Musk is bound to make some people, some of whom are media people, very uncomfortable. The sheer outrageousness of his stated goals, combined with the gall of making continuing progress towards them, makes people react very strongly to him and his enterprises. Just think about it: fully electric transportation? Solar energy on a continental scale? Reusable rockets 10 times cheaper? Colonies on freaking Mars?? Just who does this guy think he is to believe he can upend the natural order of things, just like that?

    Not everyone can withstand their core assumptions being challenged to such a violent extent, and not have their inflated sense of self shattered to pieces ("How can he possibly do all that in a single lifetime? What have I done with my life?").

    The other thing, which is more mundane, is that Tesla doesn't spend on advertising. So, if you work in the media and you are one of those people who can't stand (and understand) Elon Musk, and you don't see a dime from Tesla while you get quite a few nickels from GM and Ford, how is your program/editorial/news report going to look like? The same goes for the stock analysts, politicians, etc.

    In other words, "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it." (Upton Sinclair)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Familial, this is a superb and eloquent explanation of what I would call the socio-cultural impact of Tesla Motors on an unprepared global audience. The world literally is underprepared to comprehend the revolution taking place.

    I now view it as a core mission in my life to help them along that path, and I hope all of us here continue to help our fellow earthlings understand that these changes are not only possible, they are wonderful, beneficial, and necessary.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agree with you that Elon might be making many people uncomfortable. It is much easier to dismiss him as 'snake salesman' than to recognize his courage in daring to have a go and try to achieve impossible goals. Elon gets called many outrageous names for no reason at all except for doing his job. Many times I am concerned for him for attracting so much jealousy or whatever that is, not sure.

    In comparison to Tesla and EM, Google founders, LP and SB, have much more money, power and a grip on the world like no other company ever had, jet they do not attract similar attention, interest or passion.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think TSLA is down most because the market is down and momo stocks' ups and downs are magnified. TSLA is going along for the ride as it often does. Hopefully the market will rebound soon and then we will see TSLA back up again. If the market was bullish, last night's reveals would have been good for a boost I think as people would have looking for a reason to buy. Now they are looking for a reason to sell.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree, but Sergei and Larry would give their money to Elon lol
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Now I don't know whether to be happy or sad. I got in near the lows at 236 and seeing as to how we closed near the lows I'm not so sure of a rise on Monday anymore and couldn't decide whether to keep the stock till Monday or get rid of it so I placed an after-hours order to sell if it came above 237.. which would mean I'd hold it till Monday if the stock does not rise in the after market.. and lo and behold it filled the order around 7:30pm so I am back to cash. Bummer. Good luck to all the other longs holding through the weekend in these market conditions... I'd probably regret this sell order come monday :crying:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm at a loss for what happens Monday? Either we keep trading sliwly down to maybe even below 230 or we gap up. I put in some cheap skate Jan15 OTM call buy orders that didn't fill yesterday. Wonder if I'll regret that too...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If we go under 230 I think that we could be technically broken. Hope that it doesn't happen.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The more I think about it, the more the setup was obvious.
    -EM saying stock a bit high
    -The stock, as the market, was in a down trend
    -The tweet gave a bit of fresh air, but assumptions were high (X reveal in some minds)
    -EM negating X reveal and saying that what was about to be revealed was not going to be perceived at its just value
    Perfect setup for a buy on the rumor, sell on the news.
    Magnified by the market nosedive.

    I still fear that we might continue down to the 200 dma, then we would be in real trouble if we'd go lower than that. Nevertheless, there could be any surprise (a tweet about X) that could come any time to surprise us and reverse the trend?

    I remember a bit more than a year ago, after the fires and the bad press how so many of us were douting and were seeing the stock spiraling down. Eventually it came back alive and kicking.
    What do we need to regain full confidence?
    A good Q3 (not a beat, but on track)
    Good outlook for Q4
    And positive news on the X...

    As for the latest news: the P85D is, for me, a whole new car. It's a supercar, much more than the P85 was. How many sedans have 691 hp? And what is the massive torque?
    The whole offer (the range of cars) got better for both the costumer and the company.
    It will take a while for people to realize, but when they do, it will be reflected in sp.
    People don't realize yet what the better effiecinecy for AWD means and the autopilot as Tesla is offering it is a better thing than what competition has.(adapting to speed limit, lane changing, who has that?!)
    All in all, I think long term, better than ever, and the next Q3, Q4 and X reveal are crucial...
    Just my 2 cents!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If the price drops, I buy more calls (though I'm running thin on investment cash).
    If the price rises a little, I take some profits on calls from Friday.
    If the price rises a lot, I liquidate all my calls and wait for the next drop.

    Oh, right, you were asking what the market will do. Not sure. :)

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quoted for context. My perception is that when people use the word "supercar" they are describing a vehicle that "outperforms" what "the common man" can afford. They put it on magazine covers and other pedestals. And the average joe, and his kid with the posters in his room, dream about somehow driving one but never being able to buy it.

    When people label the P85D a supercar, they are (IMO) including that "out of your reach" aspect and it's wrong. I'm not saying it's a cheap car. But it's not a $500K car that has a limited production run, only available in select markets "if you know a guy", etc.

    In short, P85D is better than a supercar because it is reachable -- and will be an outstanding daily driver. It's not a car to park in the garage on a pedestal.

    I don't think the press, much less the non-TMC individual investor, is anywhere close to fully grasping the importance of the announcement.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    "In short, P85D is better than a supercar because it is reachable -- and will be an outstanding daily driver. It's not a car to park in the garage on a pedestal."

    You are actually right, it's got some attributes of supercars, but has some better attributes indeed!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    IMO now the Model S D is the best car in the world (as it was in Elon's intention). Only ventilated/cooled seats needed IMO.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't know how "reachable" the P85D is outside of the top 5% or so. I'm a senior software engineer, which is around the top 15% mark in income, and it's far beyond my range. The original P85 was probably 30-40k outside the highest range I could afford and only happened because of a death in the family funneling about that amount my way.

    It's the D's enhancements of the lower end that I think have a lot more value. Better handling, better range, better performance for an affordable price. It's a good omen for what's to come in the X and 3.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    120k for what you are getting is really quite a good price. But yeah it is still out of reach for most people. I can't wait to see the price and performance of the top level of the model 3
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    A colleague of mine bought a second hand Maseratti a couple yeras ago. She didn't keep it long: reliability was an issue. And every visit to the garage was an absolute pain.
    Not even talking about supercars, but about high end cars (911's and equivalent): there are plenty of mechanical issues that when out of warranty make those cars affordable to buy, but horrible to own.
    Here in Belgium, you start by paying huge taxes, huge insurance premiums and the fuel is 1,7� per liter...
    So yes, I could offer myself a 2nd hand Panamera, but I would have to pay 5000� to put it on the road, another yearly fee of 2100�, insurances of more than 2000� and pay a lot for fuel.
    What is remarkable now is what Tesla offers: supercar performance, high end price but very affordable operating cost.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    After Friday's drop, I'm predicting a steady climb back up as market entities have time to fully analyze Thursday's event.

    Unknowns in the short term: Q3 earnings in 3-4 weeks. Model X.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Can we please have that steady climb sometime between 9:30am and 2:30pm tomorrow? To about $290? 'Cause that would be great. It can be as steady as she likes, no preference there. Thanks.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    a car dealer once asked what other car i was considering buying. as a joke i said a maseratti. he said "those Italian sports cars are like supermodels. Beautiful but very unreliable"
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Any talk of autonomous car racing? I'm guessing the P85D would be a real beast in an unmanned contest. 0-60 in 3.0 seconds, perhaps, if no driver. This comes in handy when you need to summon it.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I like the way you think! Imagine having overslept and being late for work: throw on some clothes, open the app and summon the car in "insane" mode - look out the window and watch it driving out the garage and up to your door at full throttle :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    looking for some advice, i have basically my downpayment in the form of TSLA shares at the moment, down a decent amount. Will have to sell the shares in mid-november to pay for the car. Should i just bail now or ride it out for another month and hope to regain at least some of my losses? How would you guys work this scenario? just trying to pick some brains here. thanks
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Funds needed in the near future should not be invested in equity's especially a high beta stock.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't have advice for whato to do as I am not a licensed financial advisor. I will just say that Jesse Livermoore (fictitious character) Mentioned that wanting to use the profit to buy a specific item, is the worst reason for buying stocks. It has a lot to do with your emotional state of mind.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I do believe that we have the potential, as of now, to rally above the $240 area in anticipation of Q3 release. Of course, if the stock breaks the 200-day/40-week support, then we could head down to $200, at which point, I believe even a report that is in line with expectations with some positive words of future growth (being on track with Model X) should be enough to bring us back where we are. Therefore, if you don't need to sell shares until mid-november, then I believe that you should hold on till then. The upside is we hit $240s between now and then, and you will get 10% more. The worst case scenario I see playing out is we go down to ~$200-$205 and you take a small hit, but the stock recovers as long term investors add more either prior to Q3 or after the Q3 CC in which case you should be able to get ~$220/share at that time anyway.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    However, if Jesse made a big profit on TSLA, it makes absolute sense for Jesse to then say "I can now buy one of these things!"
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks for the advice, im prepared to take a loss at this point just wanted to know what the more informed investors were thinking.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    We do seem to be holding up pretty well. Bouncing off $218. Hopefully we don't break that line. I don't see us moving up too much in the next couple of weeks, but breaking $218 might hurt if it happens.

    Anyone buying any 2016 LEAPS? Strikes?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am DCA on 2016 250 LEAPS as I am not sure of the bottom but am convinced in a year plus we will be in much better shape. Holding bulk of remaining cash for post ER for 2017 LEAPS/stock.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    bought 2016 leaps, 280 strike.
    Won't be buying anymore until the market stabilizes.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I picked up some Mar'15 235 calls yesterday and Jan'16 220 calls today. I think the market is over-reacting in general and under-reacting to Tesla news re the D, China, and storage.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good show, Robert! May those calls bear fruit.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Totally agree - also bought some March 15 $235 calls yesterday...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I got some Jan 15 270s calls and some Jan 16 200 calls today. Unfortunately didn't time well intraday.

    As Robert said, market is overreacting. It often does. Ebola incurred mini crash is rediculous.
    OTOH difficult to know how long this will be going on. To be safe you should be in stocks (I am for my core investment). Hope these calls turn out good and I can buy more stocks.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I've been buying mostly Jan16 LEAPS and some Mar15 calls the last 2 days. This 'feels' like the bottom. The NASDAQ has now had its 10% correction that everyone has been waiting for and the Ebola effect is way overblown. This isn't a zombie movie where the disease suddenly explodes. It can only be transmitted by contact with bodily fluids (not airborne) so even if it has a small outbreak, it should be able to be easily contained in a first-world country. It is much less contagious than SARS. I can't comment on the oil price effect though.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Robert, I know you have a lot to do but given your experience as a former Fed economist, I'm particularly curious about your specific thoughts on current macroeconomic forces as they relate to TSLA trading. Specifically, do you have thoughts on the price of oil having outsized effect on bond and equity markets, as well as Fed's ability to move rates in the environment we find ourselves in with no appetite for fiscal stimulus? Are you concerned about deflation and/or Fed's inability to move the needle in a liquidity trap scenario? Are you concerned about equity/asset valuations outside TSLA?

    Feel free to answer over in my macro thread if you wish, or here.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow TSLA in the green and so is every single other stock of mine except AAPL. For me it is just a weird day but weird in a good way.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nice to be in the green. Put my money where my mouth is and bought both Mar15 and Jan16 OTM calls, various strikes earliervthis week, and as we dipped below $221 (the magic unicorn number) this morning some slighly OTM Nov14s.

    Also noteded for a second we were just below $218 which I had decided from some amateur charting and fairy dusting was my lower limit number for this dip. Now onwards to $340 right?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I like the run-up to close and the large amount of LEAPS I have been buying the last 2 days are green, but I still expect a dip tomorrow at opening or through the day. I bought some weekly puts before close as a hedge. I plan to sell them if we dip to $225 tomorrow.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Holy cow; not sure my health can take this.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Breathe...! :)


    ....and buy
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Our fellow momo stock NFLX down 15% AH after reporting earnings.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, and this makes me a little nervous about our Q3. EM, we need strong guidance!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hoping GOOG responds...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That seems to have affected TSLA in after hours trading, despite the fact that the two companies' products and prices are totally unrelated.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am an educated man, but can someone smarter than I please explain today's TSLA price action? The macros said the market should be down, and it was, until it wasn't?? Curt? Flux?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Assuming HBO doesn't make cars, we should okay. :wink:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow! 300 point reversal for the dow in the afternoon. Was down 450, finished down 150.

    None of the news `experts' can explain it yet.


    I feel like I ran a marathon today.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Indeed the macroeconomic news would have negatively affected the market. The reaction to that may have appeared rational. The wild card however was the new Texas Ebola case. Whatever reaction to that in the stock market would have been emotional. It is days greatly affected by emotions that can serve to washout those investors prone to panic. That can lead to important market bottoms, especially in Octobers. Those who are more level headed appear to have picked up bargains in the afternoon. Buy low; sell high.

    In the case of TSLA specifically, the selling in recent days appeared more emotional than rational, as those investors who were expecting something else at the D event showed their disappointment by selling. The truly great news at the D event may now be sinking in with those who can see the affect it will eventually have on consumer and investor perceptions.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm hoping that surge of all markets towards close wasn't just a dead cat bounce. I can't find anything else to shift sentiment so quickly.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What a dumb headline though. "Success is jeered?" Come on. Also, it bothers me when people characterize Tesla as an individual rather than a company. Tesla is not a "he," it's around ten thousand "(s)hes" now. It wasn't even a "he" when it started, it was at 5 "hes."

    That said, Leno is one of the car personalities who truly understands and accepts new technology readily, which is a nice departure from so many "purists" who somehow think inferior products are more "pure" - despite, of course, being impure by definition, given that they pollute so much.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks Curt. pz1975: That is my problem as well. Curt may well be correct. The action on Netflix should give us all a little cause for concern as we head to TM Q3ER. While it is not time to panic it is time to be cautious, IMO. Netflix met guidance for EPS and Gross income, it did not get as many new customers as the market would have liked to see....so 25% drop AH??
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Curt has been writing about the market a lot longer than me and his explanations are sound. However, as you can see on CNBC right now, no one is completely sure what is going on. I have my theories, but that's all they are. One of the theories I feel strongest about is that we are back to levels of true market volatility (propensity to swing up or down) not seen in a long time.

    Today, I used this theory and the fear in the market to trade like a true momo trader for the first time in a long time, riding the waves down then up to close out the day better than where I started, mostly flipping DIA puts by buying them ATM and selling on the way down. I am short the Dow and Wal-Mart into tomorrow morning via DIA and WMT puts, because I believe that despite the rally into the close, there is fear and weakness that will drive things down again tomorrow. I expect more wild swings and I do not expect flat trading. Market-wide strangles may be an interesting play here.

    As for TSLA, I agree with Curt that we were significantly oversold after the "D and A" event because the market had been primed to expect a completely false Model 3 reveal despite facts to the contrary, and though we followed the NASDAQ much of today, we showed much more resilience than some other stocks in the index due to the underlying strength of Tesla Motors as a company.

    So from a trading perspective, I was not a TSLA buyer but I held my core shares untouched. I was a market put buyer riding the wave down, cashing out intraday to recoup losses in some 340 TSLA LEAPs that were underwater, which I sold. And I am slightly short the market overnight.

    I remain positive that these gyrations, brought about at least in part by the forces of oil production, are even further evidence that a larger transition to a solar-electric economy would provide the security, stability, economic prosperity and environmental rescue of a magnitude we so desperately need.

    I will continue to work to make that more of a reality every day with my advocacy of Tesla Motors, solar and distributed energy storage, and I'd encourage others to do the same.
    �
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