Thứ Sáu, 28 tháng 10, 2016

TSLA Investor Discussions part 21

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I've got my crystal ball warmed up. I have predictions for the next 6 months (assuming production hits as planned):

    - Volatility will continue through end of September with share price fluctuating from $26-$36.
    - Beginning October when production hits full throttle, share price will not go below $30 and will test $40. This will last through end of year.
    - Beginning January share price will not fall below $33 and will test low $40's.
    - By March, if reservations increase and there is evidence steady state backlog, share price will test mid to upper $40's

    Anyone else care to prognosticate?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'd say you are pretty spot on in regards to the events, the prices are kind of just grabbing a number out of the air at this point though.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That would chime with the Jan'13 @25.00 Calls I just bought!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    short interest thru end of July now up to a whopping 28M shares; Even with volume increased to upper normal, days to cover all way down to 14
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That number is getting enormous. Isn't it? So, experts, can we assume that some of the recent stock price decreases were due to shorts coming in? More polarizing between optimists and pessimists?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Buying opportunity coming up on Monday (despite the SSL #1 delivery scheduled for this afternoon)?!

    Fisker Karma
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. Usually the bad news takes down TSLA a few $ over a few days. Where is Uncle Ron and Citizen T going to place their buy orders at? 25.5?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was happy to see that. I've got my cash at the ready, if we retest those lows, I'm definitely buying.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My guess is this will have little to no effect on TSLA.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm not entirely convinced it will either, maybe we will see a slight down turn. I haven't kept up with the fisker fires, but wasn't it concluded that it wasn't the battery that started it but the motor itself? This is more about a hybrid vehicle then a pure EV.

    Though if it drops to 25 dollars, man I will be so happy. I have been saving up all my pennies to jump back in at the right time and ride it till my delivery date. :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Shorts

    With 28M shorted shares and a float of 64M, does that mean that 30 out of every 100 shares I own I have bought from "speculative" investors?

    Do I understand correctly that 92M shares are currently held in long positions?

    What happens when such an investor goes belly up? How realistic is that scenario? How often has this happened before? What are the consequences for long positions in such a case?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This happened last time, when Porsche tried to buy Volkswagen. The short seller of Volkswagen were squeezed out with share price going up to 1000� from 200�, now stock trades around 130�.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    TSLA doesn't seem to want to push down. Usually after a rally like we've seen, the stock seemed to "free fall" at least a few percent each day. It's holding pretty tough right now, but I am still standing pat until a bigger drop.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You might get your wish soon. Resistance seems to be at around $30.40. If we don't break through it, I suspect there will be a harsh sell-off back to the $26's.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is taking much longer than I expected. I decided not to look at the stock price anymore, makes me dizzy.

    I decided to party instead.

    Rock on!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hope so! Surprised that it's up so far.. hasn't been any news either. Whole market seems to be dragging but TSLA is in the green for now. We'll see..
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Price limits on Limit Order

    I tried to set up limit orders to sell portions of stock at different points in case there's a short squeeze or similar when I'm not able to get to a computer. When setting up a $75 limit order it told me that the limit price was too far from the market price. Are there actual market limits to what prices you're allowed to set up limit trades for, or is this just a rule imposed by my trading platform?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm not sure because I've never set a limit so far from the current market price, but I want to reiterate incase you missed the discussion a few pages back: I do not recommend setting limit orders to sell shares (or buy for that matter) at prices that are way-out-there and then keeping them open indefinitely. If the price takes a sudden plunge one day, well below or above your limit, you risk having your order filled at prices nowhere near the market price that day.

    As an alternative, I suggest setting a notification. Have your broker email you when the price reaches X (where you would have set the limit order). That way, once you get the notification, you can get yourself to a computer, check on the news of the day and the current market price, then make an informed decision about whether or not to buy or sell that day and at what price.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If you set a high limit to sell how would it execute below your price?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It wouldn't. You would have to cancel and place another sell order to have it sell at a lower price.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It must depend on your brokerage account. I set up 4 different sell limits over a month ago. None of them may trigger, unless Steph's ideas come to fruition. One is at $60, a second at $120, a third at $240, and a fourth at $480.

    A dream come true if it happens. Hey! One can dream.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have notifications set up currently, the plan for the limits was mostly as a safety net. For example I was in Tahoe earlier this year during the Exec's leaving panic visiting family, and by the time I had access to a computer the price had already jumped back up and I miss my opportunity to buy. I was going to set up staggered orders so I'd sell 25% at $75, 25% at 125, ect, so I wouldn't miss out completely if there was a short squeeze when I couldn't get to a computer. I'd remove the orders and manage it myself if I ever saw the prices get anywhere near the limit orders.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not what I meant. I mean, let's say that you set a limit to sell at $40. On day x TSLA closes at $39. That night, Toyota announces that they are acquiring Tesla for $200 a share. The next morning, your order gets executed at $40 because that's what your limit was set at and someone else put in a buy limit for $40. You just got screwed out of $160.

    Obviously that is a dramatic example, to make my point, but you can really get killed by stuff like this if you just let buy/sell limit orders float out there for arbitrary prices.

    Alternatively, if you just set a notification, on day y you would have got notified that TSLA reached $40. You'd go to check what's up and see it is trading at $200. You decide to cash in and put in a sell order with a limit of $200. It is just as effective and you avoid the risk of getting caught up in a big move.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I did something similar when I was cruising the other week, but canceled all my orders as soon as I got back. That was an extreme situation, because I had no internet access at all for a week (so I wouldn't receive notifications). If your only problem is that you can't get to a computer, I'd suggest you either call your broker and make the trade, or use a broker that has a mobile app you can use to trade in a pinch.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Of course, if it goes down to $20 overnight you would have lost $20. The decision is whether you think the $20 or the $200 is more likely to happen.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sorry don't follow you there. If it went down to $20 overnight it doesn't matter if you had a sell at $40 or a notification at $40. Neither is tripped.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Assuming it goes up to $40 and down to $20 before you can act on the notification. Sometimes the peaks last only a short time.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Oh ok. I mean that's true, you are giving up the computer's insanely fast reflexes in order to ditch computer's infinite stupidity. I think it is extremely unlikely that a month or two out you set your sell order for exactly the peak and therefore would have benefited from having the computer trade for you. I think it is much more likely that (if the overall trend is up) the computer would trade too early and you'd benefit from the extra 15-20-30 minutes it takes you to get to a computer.

    So yeah, if you are so good that fortunes are won or lost on minutes or tens of minutes of price action, you can make your own rules. I'll stick with mine cause I'm not that good.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That was great. You've used that before, haven't you?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    Actually I think I just coined that, then I thought it was stupid so I deleted it, but now it is wisdom for all to appreciate after-all.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    On another note, anybody have any idea as to the direction today, I'm not complaining but I'd like to think it is something other than the usual volatility? Fisker bad pr+plus Elon Musk talking about going to the graveyard=stock price up 5%???
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sig #1 (and #2) delivery too?!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was about to say the same thing. Again, not complaining, but I just don't know what's happened that we've missed.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm baffled as well. Was really hoping to retest the lows that I missed. Oh well. #firstworldproblems
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Does anyone outside of TMC know about them? Does the market really care about 2 more cars?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I didn't see it hit the mainstream media, but that doesn't mean hedge funds aren't moving on it. It goes a long way to validate that the production issues are indeed minor and production is not at a standstill. Founders may be willing to take car that is not quite complete to help the shares appreciate, but the sig holders are one step closer to the average Joe, so the car must be one step closer to "done".
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You're assuming that it only takes a few minutes to get to a computer. If you work all day, you aren't going to be able to do that--or even if you can, there are always emergencies at work that require your full concentration. The only reasons to set it 60 days out are: You think the stock will do something in the next two or three weeks and you don't want to have to enter a new order in every couple of days. If the situation changes (but the change didn't trigger the transaction) you can always cancel the order and create a new one.

    I think we're both on the same page, just a difference in our daily life requires a different strategy as far as timing goes.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    At these low volumes I'd be very surprised if any funds are involved. Low volumes imply high volatility, that's all.

    The nice side-effect is that for each $ up, a few shorts are forced to buy, creating more demand and feeding the upward trend, causing more shorts to be forced to buy...

    In other news: today those shorting TSLA lost $34 million. :tongue:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Only if they covered, and only if their entry was below today's prices... I'm guessing very few short sellers covered today and if any probably those who started shorting when the stock was 34-36, thereby taking profit... You're not per definition stupid if you short TSLA, you are just playing it differently.

    I sold some today at 30.90 that I got at 28.50, because I see no reason for the stock to go up today (Nasdaq stood still) and it will probably "correct itself tomorrow morning with a few big volume orders (seen this happen many times with rhis stock). Watch the first hour tomorrow. Or maybe there will be some news and it will soar tomorrow and I'll be the fool...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I do see a reason: the response to the slow-ramp-up news was exaggerated and the stock is in the process of returning to its previous levels. While the next 6 months will challenge Tesla, they will be able to meet the challenge, as the positive reviews of produced cars indicate. Which to me means that overall the risks for investors have been reduced, even if some people think doom is immanent and the shorts have increased, polarizing the positions.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I expect August to show more low volume noise. I don't see how supercharger news would really impact the stock. If the ramp-up succeeds and production reaches 20k/yr and Tesla out-sells the Volt and matches the Leaf, that could trigger the way up. I think many people still don't see what is happening until they see it with there own eyes.

    (And that's the reason why I picked up a few $25 Jan'13 call options)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sorry, must have missed this, what did Elon say? What was the context?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    """
    Earlier in the day, Elon Musk, the founder of the luxury electric vehicle maker, Tesla, told the NCES that the next 6 months would be critical to his business.

    The California-based startup backed by VantagePoint Capital began production of its second car, the Model S sedan in June. This month, the company said that it would meet its target of delivering 5,000 Model S vehicles this year.

    "The challenge Tesla faces over the next several months, which is a very difficult one, is to scale up production and achieve enough of a gross margin on the product that we get to a situation where we're cash flow positive. If we aren't able to do that we will join the graveyard of all the other car company startups of the last 90 years."

    "It's definitely going to be a pretty tough period over the next six months. We can't afford to make a lot of mistakes. If we don't make too many mistakes we'll get through that period and then be able to bring out larger volume cars that are more affordable."

    Tesla raised $226.1m on IPO in June 2010, 40% higher than its target. Since then, its stock has routinely traded much higher than conventional car manufacturers. However, stock has recently slipped after equity analysts cast doubt on the company's production targets for 2012.

    Musk said that if margins improve, Tesla would begin making "a couple of 100,000 units" of its 3rd generation car with a $30,000 sticker price and 20%-25% lighter than the Model S.

    "We can show that it's technologically possible to other manufacturers. If Tesla doesn't make it I hope we have nonetheless served that purpose. I don't want to sound dour but it's definitely going to be a tough six months."
    """"

    Bill Clinton Urges Focus on Clean Energy While Musk Admits to Tough Times at Tesla
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It was interesting to hear Musk state that explicitly, but it's something we've all known all along. This is the critical time when Tesla has to execute their plan.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Maybe people were happy to hear that he's relatively grounded and realistic about possible outcomes....that sounds really ironic considering Space X etc. heh.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Realistic but worrisome to hear Musk speak like that.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm not sure how it will impact the stock either, but I know that it would be very remarkable if Elon was to announce that Tesla and Solar City have partnered to install Solar-powered Super Chargers every 50 miles or so in all directions. The implications of that are pretty stupendous to the EV community and those considering joining it. If those Super Charger stations could someday exchange battery packs, we could get a full charge in less time than it takes to fill a tank. And we all know that's the last big hurdle.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Personally, I find such straight-talk from a CEO to be realistic and reassuring. What would worry me is a CEO who didn't realize how critical the next 6 months are.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    This could also be just putting some context "out there", regarding this tweet from Musk a couple of hours ago :

    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Maybe Elon could say he is a too likely target for blackmail (I think that'd be a valid reason to get excused). But we should go back on topic. ;)

    I have no idea how you would relate one to the other, unless this is some "let's collect all the seemingly weird things going on and throw them in one bucket".
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was a little surprised at Elon's tone as well. Reading between the lines, I think that he was not engaged early enough in the (short) beta process, and some quality and sourcing issues slipped by until his own car was delivered. Then there was a "holy xxxx" moment, when he realized that stuff was not as perfect as he wanted. Now they are facing a very quick set of adjustments and a meteoric ramp-up to keep to the 5,000 shipping target. I think they now also realize how critical cash-flow is to staying on plan. It will be like pulling up the stick on an airplane 100 feet above the ground. I still think they will do it, but is no slam dunk.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    this is interesting; anybody see this in another source?

    �
    Hedging its bets, Tesla has also agreed to install battery storage systems at 90 stores around the country owned by Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) and that have solar PV rooftoop systems. That�s not going to be a major shift in Tesla�s business plan, but it is interesting nonetheless.
    �

    Green Energy: Cars, Fuel, and Solar (TSLA, WMT, ASTI, AAPL, KIOR) - 24/7 Wall St.


    That must be the same news as before for Solar City- They must have mis-attributed to Tesla I'm guessing
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I believe that Tesla actually makes the battery storage units for Solar City, so this article could be correct.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    ahhh- that explains it-
    thanks
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just speculating, but this could be the first piece in the upcoming Supercharger puzzle. To power a Supercharger with solar is going to require a big array. Those Wal*Marts have big roofs.

    Larry
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Should dramatically increase their volume buys of Panasonic cells and drive down their cost. They can pass on savings to customers or increase margins. Or little bit of both..
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Maybe, but these types of stationary applications do not require lightweight, expensive batteries.

    Larry
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Why? If the Super Chargers remain proprietary to Tesla Model S (and later cars) then surely they are only relevant to those Tesla owners? How would a Leaf owner benefit from this development?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hi Kevin,

    We have no information regarding of what would comprise a Supercharger installation. If Tesla partners with a big nationwide firm to host its installations, its likely that an array of outlets would be available in addition to the proprietary Tesla connectors. 90 kW, 60 kW, 20 kW; sort of like those gas pumps with multiple octanes.

    Larry
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Maybe.... but those arn't Super Chargers are they?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What if the upcoming SuperCharger announcement is that they will be located at certain regional WalMarts? :)
    And of course they will be powered by massive solar arrays located at these WalMart locations.
    WalMart gets green cred, and a backup source of power at the same time.

    Hows that for massive unfounded speculation?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hi Kevin,

    The point is that a mutually beneficial partnership can be forged that will permit the rapid expansion of Tesla Superchargers along with other chargers. Tesla would obviously benefit, and so would the host, say Wal*Mart, in being the one-stop shop for all your charging needs. A big installation like Wal*Mart could eventually go into the battery swapping business.

    Larry
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hi Mitch,

    Beat you to it.:wink:

    Larry
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Maybe, but as you said "We have no information regarding of what would comprise a Supercharger installation" and historically Tesla have chosen to support proprietary initiatives not open ones.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So you did. Several reasons Tesla could seriously be partnering with WalMart? They have a massive nationwide footprint, and they are already located in population centers, they have massive parking lots as well, and, they almost always have 480V 3 phase as well, they are near perfect locations, really... Add in massive solar installations, sounds like the perfect marriage of high technology and the worlds largest retailer.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I really doubt they would install superchargers at Wall*Marts. That's the last place they'd want a supercharger. It would always have some local plugged in trying to save $3 on electricity. This would block people on road trips who really need it, plus it might wear out the packs prematurely. No, they'd want Level II chargers at Wall*Marts.

    The superchargers belong on major highways between cities, so it will be available when and where it's really needed. I'm hoping they announce a network of superchargers along the major highways, so we can easily travel long distances.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And one reason they shouldn't: People of WalMart

    :wink:

    (I'm gonna get in trouble from someone for this post!)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hi Kevin,

    Tesla has chosen proprietary intitiatives, not because they wanted to, but because they deemed the existing alternatives at the time to be inferior designs that didn't satisfy their vehicle's needs. Now we are beginning to see collaborations. Frankly I don't think that Tesla wants to get in the business of building charger infrastructure on their own at this tenuous period of its company's life. Yet now is the time that it needs that infrastructure to better market its cars. The right type of partnership with an array of chargers would do that. I guess time will tell.

    Larry
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    From the Latest "Finalize your order" date thread:

    Seems unlikely, then, that they're going to achieve 5,000 deliveries this year. If that makes for a temporary drop in the share price then this time I'm ready to jump on it...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes Kevin, exactly what WalMart needs, more real green credentials, not "green washing"
    In case no one has noticed, most Walmarts are in general located near major highways.
    Tesla simply cannot afford to do this on their own, at least not nationwide. There will be partners, for the site costs, Infrastructure (do you know how much it costs and how long it takes to get a 100KVA 480V transformer sited and installed?). WalMart/McDonalds/COSTCO/Walgreens are about the only eligible nationwide chains that work.
    I would not expect to see SuperChargers located at highway rest stops... Just because of the power requirements.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hi Doug,

    As Kevin points out, the Superchargers are proprietary, there will only be other Model Ss to compete with. So there won't be a Leaf sipping electrons all day sitting in front of you. In addition to Superchargers, I'm suggesting that there could be a full spectrum of chargers there, including Level II chargers, and smaller so-called "standard" DC fast chargers.

    I certainly agree that Superchargers should also be near major highways, but I have difficulty visualizing Tesla constructing large PV arrays directly off of highways. Maybe these would be different designs, but Elon has hinted at this PV approach presumably to deal with demand charges. So maybe the highway Superchargers would charge a higher fee than one connected to a Wal*Mart, or as Mitch suggests they would be near highways, but not necessarily on them.

    Larry
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't think so... a simple lack of knowledge is all they required to make some of those decisions... plenty of alternatives if they had looked.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is "green washing" and Tesla should have nothing to do with it if they value their brand. Are you serious? WalMart?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That's exactly where they are required... not in stores.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    We are building a national charging network in the UK and have 124 locations live today... so, yes, I have a reasonable understanding of what it takes to do this.

    So, Tesla should partner with some company with a questionable environmental and workers rights history because it 'works'? Why not choose a more ethical partner and be part of the solution not the problem?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Kevin, we have to agree to disagree. Located at retail stores, you have somewhere to go/something to do.
    If its a mile or two from the highway, that's not going to bother any Model S drivers.

    I repeat, Tesla needs a partner or partners, they do not have the money to buy/lease land, deploy the required infrastructure and pay for the SuperCharger hardware, it's simply not realistic to think they can do this without an already existing nationwide retailer.

    Elon is talking about hundreds of sites with DC fast charging, I thought all of your sites are 230V 32A or so. It's apples an oranges, they can't be compared.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    On most interstate highway here in the US to fill up an ICE you have to pull off an exit to get gas at a nearby gas station. The same thing could apply to nearby Supercharger locations.

    Larry
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That's never been in dispute and IMO one of the reasons why the proprietary Super Charger is a mistake. However, Tesla should not contaminate their brand by linking up with some of the worst companies from an environmental perspective.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't believe PV is going to solve the demand charge problem - the array would have to be ridiculously large, and it would only work at high noon on a clear day. The solution to demand charges is local power storage - assuming that could be done economically of course.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    We have one 50kW CHAdeMO site and a number preparing for the new 43kW AC standards so it's not so very different. I would also say that Elon has precisely zero public locations live today so lets see what he can actually deliver (talking about charging infrastructure is easy).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Mods, I think we've gone off topic here, and some thread cleanup/migration is in order...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    how is charging infrastructure not relevant to TSLA Investors?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No offense Kevin, but you have some horrible ideas. If Tesla implemented your ideas, they would be out of business.

    Nobody in their right mind wants to sit at a highway rest area for 40 minutes. There is nothing to do. I'll take a supercharger at Walmart anytime over most other places. 99% of Walmarts in the US are located near other stores, not to mention restaurants. A very easy way to spend 40 minutes.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You might be right, but looking closely, a slew of them got notice to build last few days, including at least one that was over #3000, all with the same estimated delivery of Dec/Jan. Also, note previous delivery dates have been about 1 month conservative. They may not make 5000, but if they make 3500+ by dec and get to 5000 by jan, that's close enough for me!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    3000 P + 1000 S + 50 F = 4050 and then there may be 200 Canadian S which would be 4300. Very close.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    From my perspective as an investor, the biggest problem I have with a Tesla / WalMart combination is the clash of image. The stereotypical WalMart shopper is not in the Tesla demographic. From a purely logistical POV, though, WalMart would be a great partner.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And if TM delivers 200 Canadian Sigs + some additional Canadian Ps, they could be even closer.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hi Doug,

    I'm sorry, I wasn't clear. This speculative discussion started with the article regarding Tesla installing batteries that stated:

    So in my speculation I was putting the two elements together, that is, battery storage and large PV arrays. I didn't mean to suggest that a PV array could directly supply a Supercharger. The battery storage would feed the Supercharger after being charged by the PV array. I imagine that depending on how many folks charge per day that the batteries would have to be supplemented by the appropriately sized grid connection, but the batteries could mitigate the demand charges if not eliminate them.

    Lary
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    From a traveling point of view, the main problem with Walmart is that the stores next to them are Lowes and other home infrastructure type businesses, which aren't all that interesting to anyone but the locals (the restaurants are usually a mile or more away and the ones that aren't Rotten Ronnies are further still). Sitting in a Walmart parking lot for 45 minutes to an hour isn't all that great of an experience. An RV park would be better, and an entertainment complex better still.

    On the positive side, Walmart does have stores in the smaller towns where you would actually want to charge during trips.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I checked the map for MN, WI, IL, and it is amazing to see how they are right next to interstates or major state highways. (There are only a handful of exceptions). There are also a few ideally located Walmarts between Minneapolis and Chicago, so I am all for it!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hi Robert,

    True, but what demographic do you think the Gen III owners will be in? :wink:

    Larry
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Interestingly, CostCo have a much better reputation for labor practices and greenness than WalMart, and they are currently in the process of TAKING OUT chargers at stores that used to have them!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    In my view, I think wall street would consider anything less than 5K units in 2012 a miss (they expect companies to beat not meet forecasts � even �soft� ones). My model had 6K deliveries in 2012 � if we get to the next earnings call with no revisions/material disclosures, I�ll feel a lot better.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Normally true, but when in the 'profitability' transition mode of TSLA not so much. Most of the analyst I've seen are modeling a more conservative 3000
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'd say helping to clean up a "bad" company should actually bring them better press than gloming on to an already "green" company. Solar City solar panels with Tesla backup batteries will lessen Walmart's environmental impact. How is that bad?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    But none I'd prefer to Tesla's design. Tesla will lead. (And they did look.)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    S0rry I will not go to Walmart (other stores, maybe)
    rest areas, ok
    especially in OR - free coffee, & wooded parks- pull the BBQ and cooler out of the frunk mmm homemade road meals
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I would prefer Target to Walmart. Much more in the "demographic" of Tesla buyers.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, we're a bit off topic about the SuperChargers in the stock thread, however, that announcement (when it's made) is likely going to affect the stock price, one way or another, so it's not totally off topic. With that said, we don't know what their actual plans are, but whatever they announce, we are going to have to live with, be it WalMart or some other large nationwide footprint chain.. No point in getting worked up about it until we hear the actual announcement.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Indeed... I think we're approaching the limits here. Everything Tesla does arguably affects the stock price, but we can't discuss everything here. Let's move our random speculation closer to the topic at hand...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was Really worried when I heard the somber speech that Elon gave but now that you mention it you're right. Most analysts that are overweight on tesla are taking a much more conservative estimate versus what tesla has been saying. Now the only thing I'm worried about are run away costs. Hopefully their costs are in the ball park of what they estimated and aren't too out of control.

    I really don't understand why Elon would take such a somber tone and even bring up bankruptcy if the company is doing well. Im pretty sure everybody knows the risks. I could understand of they needed to mention lowering their production numbers but why mention "going under". I hope he's just trying to spook people so that he can get more shares but he's got me second guessing myself
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Maybe he want to buy more.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Kevin, Isn't the Leaf having trouble keeping their batteries together and temperatures controlled at lower charge rates?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Or maybe he doesn't want us to be too harsh with Tesla-skeptics, as without knowing Tesla well, what Tesla is trying to do must seem like a huge (not just big) challenge. So as not to appear ignorant, or even crazy, he says: yes, it is a big challenge, there is in fact a danger of not succeeding.

    Plus, some say that in order to address anxiety, it is good to rationally consider the worst thing that can happen. And, he says, even in that case Tesla will have shown others what is technologically possible, and even that will have been worth the effort (in some sense).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agree, Elon likes to beat the odds, and seems to always want to emphasize how difficult things are. In interviews he often talks about that he thought the SpaceX project had less than 50% chance of succeeding. But he went ahead and put all his worth in it anyway.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just to be honest, TSLA is not a stock I'd want to own now. Simply too much stacked up against it short term. It's crunch time when more reservation holders are asked to commit and when they need to ramp up production. If either one of these aspects are disappointing, investors will freak. There's already so much short interest and downward pressure (not to mention the macro economic scares) that I just can't stomach owning this stock in the short term. If it gets beaten down to sub $20 maybe I'll jump in, or I'll simply wait until Tesla's story is a bit more clear. Sure I may miss the initial ramp up in share price if I wait, but I feel like I'll avoid potentially far worse. TSLA has done well for me, so I'm very content with the profits I've made already.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You need to revisit the history of Tesla's engineering visit to Europe and ask yourself how they missed the Type 2 ("mennekes") design. You may think Tesla will lead but how will that be true when Type 2 is on millions of cars and Tesla proprietary connector on a few thousand?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sorry I don't understand this comment... what's your point?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, my business acumen allowed me to retire at 50 so I can't be a complete nut case :wink:

    I do not think you want to dilute a premium brand like Tesla with WalMart... IMO their is a shift taking place in the attitude of many young people and I don't think Tesla want to be on the wrong side of that. Think Shell and Greenpeace - Arctic Ready
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So, Canadian pricing is out -- US price + tariffs + a small markup for higher shipping costs. This seems like about as fair a deal as good be expected. If Tesla uses this same formula for Europe, what does that portend for global sales? Any sense that the Street will like this policy, or even care?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Exactly. Very well said.

    This kind of leadership improves Tesla's chance of success a great deal.

    GSP
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The Tesla plug looks better than the mennekes, and adapters are easy to use the few occasions you might need them, so it's just not a big deal.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I hope I don't start a 3 phase discussion again, but the Tesla plug is not capable of delivering 3 phase regardsless of the adapter.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You can start the discussion again, no problem, just in the correct thread please. :smile:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Cash Flow

    There's been some comments in various threads and concerns about Elon saying that Tesla must become cash flow positive soon; well Elon was just stating a known fact but I though it worth looking (very rough and unscientific!) at some numbers to see what really needs to happen.....

    1. It's fair to assume that Tesla's investment needs will diminish somewhat. There are certainly development for costs for Model X and for Gen III but unlikely to be any serious tooling costs in the short-term.
    2. FY2011 Tesla increased their cash holdings over 2010 by roughly $160m, but also drew down $200m cash from the DOE loan facility. 2011FY loss $254m so we can round it all together and say that worst case they burnt through about $300m in cash last year.
    3. 1H2012 and Tesla has $40m less in cash and drew down $150m from the DOE facility. 1H2012 loss was $100m so assume they burnt through roughly $300m worst case. Now given all the investments in Q1 and Q2 it's fair to assume that 2H will be 50% lower as far as cash drain is concerned; let's say FY2012 comes in at a burn rate of $450m.

    OK, what does Tesla need to do to become cash flow positive:

    1. Let's be really pessimistic and say that they need to generate $100m per quarter from Model S only.
    2. Average Model S price $75k. So they have to deliver 1,333 cars per quarter, or 450 cars per month. Even if we take out the deposits and assume $70k per car, that's still only 475 cars per month needed for basic cash flow to be +/- zero

    And profitable:

    1. Assume that 1H2012 losses continue, but at a lower rate and FY2012 comes out at $350m. It's pretty fair to assume that FY2013 costs will be more like 2010 levels and I'd assume that Tesla will need about $250m in margin to break even.
    2. Uising their stated and indicated margins, and assuming no powertrain business, at a Model S average price of $75k Tesla will need to deliver about 13,000 cars next year.
    3. IMO, with powertrain and development revenues it's quite feasible that Tesla can breakeven with around 8,500 cars next year.

    Conclusion, I'm not concerned about the current cash rumors and I can see why Tesla might raise capital (especially if it's cheap enough) , but why they shouldn't need to raise capital. I find it pretty amazing that my private model shows a breakeven of 8,500 cars and I remember Elon saying somewhere a long time ago that Tesla could breakeven with 8,000 cars per year.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good numbers � but the other issue dragging down the stock now is the production ramp/run rate which is not moving at rocket speed right now!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No, I think that's the issue Nigel is talking about. We are in the phase that GeorgeB has blogged about 11 days ago, and any changes since then that we might know about, and discussing here, are very temporary. There is no other new information other than anxiety which some people think they need to express over and over.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree with your calculations, I posted a crude spreadsheet here a few weeks back with basically similar conclusions. Just think how positive the cash flow will be when the pump put 20k cars in 2013, or even 30k (as implied that they could do with not that much more effort in the quarterly call). I think that the sooner TSLA becomes profitable and the more profitable it gets, they will move faster toward the Gen III vehicle, which is smart because they want to keep, or even try to advance, the headstart that they have on almost all of the competition.
    �
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