Thứ Sáu, 28 tháng 10, 2016

TSLA Investor Discussions part 5

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Usually price targets are a 12-month call, though, not necessarily.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Right now Tesla has about 1/2 year of 'full production' backlog. I imagine that they will try to make cars at about the rate they recieve reservations. And by the end of 2013 hopefully have about a 1-3 month backlog. I think they will try to keep a line, so they can force the 'build to order' strategy. With a few cars at each store, to demo them.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Or, perhaps, they will try just-in-time manufacturing. Such that they build to order very soon after the order.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Do you think they'll take the chance of an idle manufacturing plant if there's a downturn in sales? I think they'd be smart to operate with a 1-3 month backlog. That way they can accurately estimate production and if demand increases they can simply increase production to meet the demand.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I quit programming when OSs began running multiple simultaneous programs, and event-driven programming came in. I stopped at C and never moved to C++, which arrived shortly before I quit. I guess this was around 17 or 18 years ago???

    I agree with you. But I don't think Tesla's certainty or your and my confidence will convince the markets. It's been a rocky road for Tesla, and lots of companies have made promises that never got fulfilled. Just yesterday someone on Prius Chat referred to the Model S as vaporware. I'd consider that person uninformed, to be polite about it, but until the car is actually on the roads, the market will see the delivery date announcement as "merely a promise."

    Once the cars are rolling off the line, the market will take note.

    Thank you for that. I was going to ask what was the point of a target price with no time line.

    An intentional backlog has the advantage of aiding with production planning and helps create a sense that the car is in high demand, but has the disadvantage of losing the impulse buyers. Elon is a better businessman than I am (to put it mildly!) so whichever route he takes will probably be better for the company than the route I'd have taken.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It depends... and I'm no expert... small car manufacturers often have waiting times, however Tesla wants to "transition" to becoming a mass-manufacturer. In general it seems to be an advantage to be able to deliver quickly. Some people need/want a car as soon as they decide to buy one. I guess other advantages are that Tesla wants to serve the market to accelerate the development of electric cars, and perhaps also wants to build a market-segment position before established manufacturers start selling/announcing competing (or supposedly competing) products. Plus, the sooner the cars go to customers, the sooner there can be a domino effect. However I'm not saying that is necessarily the case, just seems possible.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I mentioned my car's arrival (likely late July/early August) and a buddy of mine made a remark like "what, in 2 years?". I sent the link to the blog post and he asked which # I was. When I told him, he said "well, what, they've sold 30ish? They probably started at 500 to make it look good". I told him I knew of some with lower numbers: "oh ok, they sold 4 then, 1, 17, 500, 532" -- basically, people won't believe it until they see it, and that's one reason I don't EVangelize.

    I prefer to allow the "laugh now, cry later" thing to happen. Never fails. Phase 1: laugh at me for being a fool believing in something that seems crazy. Then phase 2: kicking themselves when that something comes to fruition and they miss the boat. In this case, likely "oh that's sweet, they're sold out until next year?!?!".
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    How relevant is the price of gas to the success of Tesla? Is a de-coupling about to occur?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It is relevant only to those who for some reason think that people that buy $100k cars care about spending $4 vs $3.75 for gas. That said, there seems to be a lot of those people, so I guess the answer is it is very relevant.

    I think we've got a long way to go before we decouple ourselves from the inverse oil trade.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    In round numbers, a $0.10/gal increase in the price of gas improves the LCOE of the Model S vs. typical-ICE by about $500. This savings can either have the effect of increasing market share (and, yes, at the margin, car buyers do care about cost) or increasing Tesla's margin, or some combination thereof.

    For those who doubt that gas prices matter about car selection, take a look at how sales of small cars vs. big cars reacts to gasoline price swings. People do react.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not sure what $4 has to do with $3.75 for gas. The useful comparison is gas versus electricity.

    Where I'm at, premium is about $4.30. The equivalent in kWh for the same distance in a Model S is about 30-35 cents, or about $15000 over the course of 100,000 miles. $15000 is a significant amount, even for people that can afford a luxury car.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think what Citizen was trying to say was that the people who can afford a Model S and X react less to gass price fluctuations than most. To those that can afford the S, gas going from $3.75 to $4.00 probably won't be the main reason for purchasing the S. it will probably be one of many reasons, but probably not one of the most compelling.

    However, the majority of the public buying "big cars" (I assume big engines) vs. small cars ranging from $20,000 to even $40,000 are going to be more susceptible to react to gas price fluctuations. I'd be interested if the study of big vs small cars in the $40,000 and up range show the same degree of swing as the $20,000 - $40,000 cars. I would doubt it, though.

    And while the $15,000 is significant for those affording S and X's, it is not an immediate savings, rather 100,000 miles by 15,000 miles/year on average, you are talking $2250/year, or $190'ish/month. Again, for those affording S and X's, it's a factor, yes, but not one of the main one's.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That's what I was thinking. It's like cell phones: carriers subsidize the big upfront cost of phones by locking you into a 2-3 year contract. The value of the contract is worth more to them in the long term, and the customer doesn't see it as a huge amount because it's paid over time.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    True, it'll matter a lot more to the Gen3 buyers a few years from now. Especially if Tesla can create a little "equivalent monthly expenses" app that shows the Gen3 versus an ICE. Something like:

    Lease/payment = EV $X1, ICE X2
    Fuel = $Y1, Y2
    Total = $Z1, Z2

    People will be able to quickly see the monthly expense for an EV is at least on par. They could do that now, but as you said, it's perhaps not as big a factor right now, particularly for the early adopters buying the more expensive 85kWh Model S.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    $4 gas may not matter to some people but all it takes is one oil crisis with gas shooting up to maybe $6 a gallon and the Model S would make a lot more sense to many people.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Exactly. Because while I (and my family) REALLY want or could use the X, and I'm hoping to have myself in a position to get one down the line, if that doesn't happen, me and practically everyone I know will be really comparing monthly cost of ownership for the Gen3.

    Back to main topic... TSLA dipping back to under $30 today. Is this the "newness" of the delivery announcements wearing off? Am going to be very interested in how prices react after those June and into July deliveries take place.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is just wrong.

    • [*=left]Many people who buy expensive things are cheap.
      [*=left]The car is $49,000 if desired. It's not a Roadster.
      [*=left]Driving by a gas station is wonderful. When the price goes up it's even better.
      [*=left]These cars have a high percentage of people buying way out of their normal pricing comfort zone and they are very aware of the price of gas and how it influences their decision to make the jump to electric.
      [*=left]Regular gasoline in So Cal is $4.40
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    He DID say 100k. If you're stretching to fit into 49k entry level, you're not buying 100k cars. I'm with citizen on this one. if you're buying at the top tier of the Tesla lineup, you're not likely to be worrying about saving $xk over y miles.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sorry, guess I should have been more specific. AnOutsider captured my meaning the best: individuals that are in the premium car market, are (on the average) less sensitive to small fluctuations in the price of gas (in my example a 25 cent change).

    I am 100% on board with the thesis that the long-term march to $8 or $10 or $20 or whatever number you want to use makes EVs more attractive to larger groups of people, I was just making a snarky comment about traders that buy and sell TSLA and other alternative transportation stocks because oil went from $100 to $95 this week (again, use whatever small increments you want here).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The original question is:
    The question asks about the success of "Tesla" .

    Tesla sells a single car that ranges from $49,000 to +$100K When I am standing next to a Roadster and tell someone that Tesla now has a new car coming out I stress that the new sedan base price is HALF the cost of Roadster -because it can be. This is important. Tesla is working at making electric cars more affordable and portraying the Model S a $100K car is off-message.

    For those stretching to buy a $49K Tesla because a Leaf does not do it for them then gasoline prices are very likely to be part of their decision
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think we agree there kind sir.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ahhhh, bending like a reed in the wind....
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Tesla is down because the market is down. TSLA seems to have a high beta, I.e. when the market goes down, TSLA goes down even more.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks!
    I'm relatively new to the market, so learning all the phrases and abbreviations helps!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'll bet there's someone reading this who could create such an app. I'm not that person. But it would be a great idea.

    It really seems as though when there's a sharp rise, it rises too much and then settles back, and when there's a sharp drop, it drops too much and then bounces back. (By "too much" I mean more than the market wants to settle at for the time being.)

    That's just how it looks to me. I don't understand the market. I only bought TSLA because I love my car and I think Tesla is doing good for the nation and the world.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not to get Facebook into the thread again, but...

    Cars for Facebook billionaires (yes, they're still rich) - Tesla Model S (2) - CNNMoney

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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    8^|

    sigh.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It may exist. Leaf, Coda, BMW, Volt, I, etc. owners also have an interest in such an app and may have created it. The EVlogger app team might be perfect for it.

    Great if it could access and display TSLA stock on the readout.

    Also access Gasbuddy or similar to show exact current rate of savings to share with people asking "But doesn't your electric bill go up?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm up $480 now. Of course, that's silly because I haven't really made anything unless I sell, which I'm not going to do. But it's cool that I'm now up that much.

    I imagine a simple, generic app:

    Input:

    1. Nickname of car.
    2. Wh/mile or km; or miles or km/kWh.
    3. Local cost of electricity.
    4. Optional: Miles or kilometers driven per year; or the app would calculate per 100 miles.
    5. Cost of car or down payment and monthly payments and duration, and cost of routine maintenance.
    6. Expected lifetime of car in years or miles.
    7. Expected trade-in value at the end of that time.
    8. MPG of gas car to be compared.
    9. Local cost of gas.
    10. Repeat 5, 6, and 7 for gas car to be compared.

    Then the app would tell you your pro-rated cost per year for both cars. Or you could leave out 5, 6, and 7, and it would give you energy cost per 100 miles. I would not tie the app to any given car or company. Admittedly, the Volt would require a more complicated app.

    Or the app could be generalized for any two cars by including percentage of EV use. For an EV this would be 100, for a gas car it would be zero, and for a PHV it would depend on your driving pattern, which in the case of the Volt I think the car tells you.

    I think this would be a simple app to write, for anyone who has the tools to write apps. Two decades ago I programmed in C as a hobby, and I think I could have written such a program. I have not attempted to write software since I got rid of my DOS machine. I don't even have a compiler installed on my computer. I know there's one in OS X but I'm not sure even how to access it, and writing software on a multi-tasking OS is more than I care to attempt. (Though I'd really love to have a C compiler (not C++, which I never learned) that would have a CreateWindow function that would handle all the events for me, and just let me write an algorithm that would run in that window.)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Gas price volatility and expectation of volatility has me in real angst: $4 today, $2.50 tomorrow, up to $6 then back to $5. For me this uncertainty is definitely a big factor for going EV. I wonder, however, if an oil glut takes the price of gas down to $2.50 and keeps it there, whether anyone would care buying a Tesla Model S? Are this car's other features such as style, storage, quiet ride, sound system, quickness, environmental benefits etc... sufficient to keep sales going?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That's the idea. Musk has always said he wants to build great cars, that also happen to be electric, (though part of their greatness comes from being electric as well.)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If you're not in it purely because of the price of gas, sure ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    But it always trends up.

    When we took delivery of our roadster 6/09 gasoline was 2.80 (in LA). As you can see it went down. But it always goes up over time.

    [?IMG]
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Traditional sources of oil are drying up. Newer techniques - shale rock, deep water - are economically feasible only if the current price levels (or more) can be maintained. Rest assured, there's no oil glut out there that can knock the price down...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    About the only thing that could produce a somewhat sustained drop in gas prices is a global recession.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    We have to face the fact that we have to leave oil in the ground for use for plastics and chemicals for the next 10,000 years. It's an amazing resource, but it should not be burned. Tesla was adamant about that.

    �Whatever our resources of primary energy may be in the future,� Tesla wrote in Century Magazine in 1900, �we must, to be rational, obtain it without consumption of any material.�
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    No doubt that could easily be engineered. We're getting better and better at it.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just like the EV, Bioplastic (petroleum free...mostly) is catching on: Bioplastic - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    In general I believe we will see the value of EV's go up as gas goes up. I expect even with battery improvements that the TM brand (aka their slew of battery/charging patents and overall manufacturing process and design aesthetics) will continue to appreciate as they are years ahead of their competitors. And even though we are a true global economy, as recession can travel to neighboring countries like the weather, the demand for gas/petrol continues to rise due to it being a monopoly for transportation.

    TM will change this. That's why I'm here and most likely why you are reading this.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    For me, it's all about driving electric. My lifetime cost of ownership with the Roadster will be FAR more than if I never bought an EV and just kept driving the Prius. But I don't like burning gasoline. I bought the Roadster because at the time it was the only freeway-capable EV I could get. I'd have bought a Model S instead if it had been available.

    But for mass-market acceptance of EVs, they'll have to offer value for the price. They'll have to be as nice as a gas car with a similar total lifetime cost of ownership, and gas prices are one part of that equation. After the people who want an EV just because it's electric have been served, $2 gas would probably make EVs very hard to sell. But $2 gas is very unlikely, given the exponentially rising global demand, and the rising cost of extraction of deeper and harder to get at reserves. An economic depression will suppress prices, but when price falls below cost of production, production stops, supply dries up, and then everyone will want an EV. In fact, apart from the total cost-of-fuel equation, the reliability of supply and the convenience of charging at home (vs. gas lines the next time there's a shortage) is a very big point in the EV's favor.

    Imagine a Model S is $50K and a gas car of similar quality is $30K but you have to spend 4 hours in line once a week to fuel up the gas car, while you just plug in the electric car at home, which do you buy?

    For now, Tesla is in a market segment where cost of fuel is not the major factor in purchasing decisions. By the time Tesla moves into the mass-market segment, EVs will be much more widely accepted, and the uncertainty of both price and supply reliability of gas will be more of a concern. Tesla's principal competitor won't be gas cars, it will be EVs from other manufacturers such as Nissan.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Excellent write-up daniel. That and the amazing magical drive train are the reasons I've invested a butt-load of cash in TSLA.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    OMG... don't let cauliflower see that! :tongue:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    1974 and again in 1979

    For those not driving then, many states adopted Odd and Even gas days based on the last number on your plate

    [?IMG]
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ah, the good-olde days, eh? :redface:

    I remember my family (in NY) being happy we had one odd and one even plate, because in an "emergency" we could fill one and siphon to the other. I don't remember us actually doing that. I also remember arguments about turning off the car while in line. While it was shown that idling wasted more gas (assuming you didn't need to flood the carb in order to start), many people were worried about wear and tear on their starter motors. The lasting effect of this was that small Japanese cars took market share and never looked back. People who had made fun of the Honda CVCC (a claimed 50MPG) as a motorcycle with bodywork suddenly were paying over sticker for small cars.

    How soon we forget. How long did it take for big SUVs to become popular?

    BTW, does anyone remember whether all letters was considered odd or even?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I got some stocks a while ago at 32.8, and I've been a bit frustrated that I didn't sell at 38. I'm in for the long, but I still like to watch the market and TSLA just for fun. When do you think we'll see the stock set a new all time high and pass 40?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Oh my GOSH! TSLA is down 2% on NO NEWS! How could this atrocity occur? Why isn't Elon doing anything?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Can you hear me Major Elon?
    *repeat*
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    While I don't want gas prices to go up necessarily, when I see a large SUV with extra big tires riding a few extra feet off the ground (getting worse gas milage than the stock SUV), I think "$5 a gallon gas would probably really help that guy appreciate his car". And maybe appreciate EVs a little too.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Totally agree...higher gas prices are a blessing in disguise. Crazy how low us taxes vs Europe too imo.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    As a former off roader and occasional builder of lifted trucks with ridiculous tires I'm waiting for the day I can do one as an EV. Just waiting for the right motor and battery combo to come in at a realistic price point to justify it :cool:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Have been getting dirty glares from such folks 'high up' since I've started sporting my OILSTNX plates ;)

    He's too busy with some rocket/spacecraft stuff, I believe...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I had a terrible thought this morning... If something happened to Elon, what would happen to Tesla investments? Does the company have any life insurance policies on its executives and other key people?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    A morbid thought... the 'Hit by a Bus Syndrome'!

    A great exec should be grooming the right folks to step in as needed. We had sort of discussed this in the past; as SpaceX (Elon's first love) grows (btw, you can see the amazing Dragon-ISS tango live right now! It's beautiful!) and as the DoE loan requirements (personally w.r.t. Elon) are met and Tesla's production of multiple models hits a steady cadence, he might conceivably give up the Tesla CEO post to JB Straubel or someone else.

    Apple has managed such a transition very well.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What I find interesting here is that it's a purely technical analysis of the past behavior of the stock, using market theory, with only passing reference to the upcoming Model S deliveries, and no other mention of the product the company builds or the potential public acceptance of that product. They don't even mention competition from other EV makers in their reasons for shorting the stock.

    They expect the stock to obey the theory of how stocks behave, without taking into account the question of underlying growth in the company as it sells cars and brings more models on line in coming years. But maybe that's to be expected since their focus is probably on short-term speculation rather than long term investment in a company whose plan is growth.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That's technicians for you. An awful lot of people trade like this. That's why even if you are a fundamental trader, you need to pay attention to the technicals.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That's really yet to be seen. A technology centric company won't really see degradation due to loss of vision/direction for about 2-3 years because of the time it takes for projects that were already in the pipeline to finish. Until that happens, you don't really see much impact from the new leader's direction.

    I personally suspect people like Jobs and Musk are basically irreplaceable. I don't think Apple will remain what it is today. It's so big I don't think it will crumble, but then look at a company like HP that was so dominant and crumbled when it lost it's original innovation based direction.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I would sell first and ask questions later if something happened to Elon.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I dunno... Tesla's product roadmap is fairly clear for the next 5-10 years. At this point Elon's main role is to push people to go beyond their comfort zone, to do things better and faster than anyone else expects. Once that's ingrained into the corporate culture it will likely survive him.

    Meanwhile at Apple, Jobs is gone. Who is going to come up with the next major new product idea, as opposed to the next incremental improvement to the iPad or iPhone?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Interesting, it's actually a problem you see in a lot of fields where people forget a model is just an abstraction of reality and if the model doesn't include a relevant factor then the model isn't going to work. They get so invested in the model itself they think of the model as being the reality.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The thing is that when it comes to stocks, this type of thinking creates a self-fulfilling prophecy. If enough of the big guys that are buying and selling enough shares to move the market are all looking at the same technicals to decide when to buy and sell---guess what---the technicals will turn out to be right.

    The model becomes reality because those taking action based on the model make it reality.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    As a teen-ager I spent a lot of time trying to find patterns in things. I found a lot of patterns. Of course they were meaningless, but if you look for patterns you'll find patterns. That's what stock analysts do: they find patterns in stock movement. Some are self-fulfilling: the model says a stock will fall when it does thus and such, so people who believe the model sell and the stock falls. And vice versa. Meanwhile the company builds a product, and if the pubic buys it, the company grows and in the long term the stock rises.

    Thus an investment in a good company will make money over the long term, but in the short term the stock does the classic drunkard's walk, and the greater the company's fundamental uncertainty is, the wilder is the walk. Tesla is a start-up company that's had to struggle to get going, and most people are skeptical about electric cars, so the walk is a wild one.

    If Tesla can keep going, and sell cars, and compete with the likes of Nissan and Mitsubishi and the others, the stock will go up. If Tesla loses the competitive battle, or electric cars just don't sell after we enthusiasts have our cars, then our shares will be worthless. And meanwhile, if you can predict the rises and falls ahead of time, you can make money speculating in the short term, or you can lose your shirt if you call it wrong. I can never predict them, so I'm just going to hold my shares and feel smug about owning a piece of a company that I believe has vision and a social conscience.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Re: SpaceX and TSLA

    For those of us debating whether or not the SpaceX launch would have any impact, it certainly doesn't look like it. Or if it did, it's lost within the normal TSLA volatility.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hmph. June 22, here we come. 27 days to go.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Gotta love today. Up 6-7% so far. As far as I can see there is no new news. I guess it is just another day with a very volatile stock. I think we're gonna see many days like this in june, both ups and downs
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The question is, should I try to profit take and grab some more on a low swing? I honestly don't think it will go into the 20's as long as they deliver the Model S without any huge mess ups.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    As you probably know, I'm all about taking some off the table while you are hot and saving it for a rainy day, but even I'm not making moves here. Too hard to predict, just as likely to miss a big move tomorrow as you are to lose today's gains. I'm just sitting on my hands.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm probably the one here with the least experience from the stock market (some weeks), but personally I don't think it is a good idea to buy after a day like this. All the indexes are up today, and so are Tesla. I would wait some days (for bad news from Spain or Portugal) and then pick it up at a cheaper price. However, I think it still is a way good price and I expect the stock to pass 40 not long after they start to deliver cars, so I would definitely buy as much as you can afford. That's what I've done
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If you are really itching to book some gains, I'd look at the 50-day moving average. In the past there has been a good bit of resistance there and the probability of a pullback is higher there than it is right here. I might consider taking some gains at that level as long as we don't get there on June 21st.

    Right now the 50-day is at about $33, but on a downward trajectory.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm totally new to this. How do you find the 50-day and 200-day that other people are talking to. Can't find it on either Google Finance or Bloomberg. Maybe I'm just not looking good enough
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    technicals tab on google finance (under stock chart)
    here:

    chart.JPG
    but if you look at the (200,2m) it is not the 200 day shown here( 200, 2 minute) , you need to zoom out to a daily for a 200,1 day MA
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks! Been looking for that for a while:)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And that's really what it all comes down to. If it could be predicted everybody would be rich. But of course, for some people to gain others have to lose (talking day trading, as opposed to a rising market where everybody gains until the crash comes and everybody gets wiped out). So it's not predictable.

    I'd strongly recommend against speculation if you don't know what you're doing. If you like the company and believe it will succeed, buy some stock with money you can afford to lose, and hold onto it for the long term.

    Remember, if anybody tells you what to buy or sell and when, ask them "If you know so much, how come you're not Warren Buffet?"
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks, thats exactly what I'm doing. I really like the company and I'm therefore in for the long term. I only see now that I should probably have waited for a while before I bought. (Bought at 32.8). I'm only 19, and next year I'm moving for myself as a student, so I didn't have much money to invest, which means I won't loose that much either if it fails
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good for you to be investing at 19. You are going to do just fine. Use this as a learning experience and soak up as much knowledge as you can.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good luck to you erha as well. I bought just a hand full of shares of Apple around the same age at $14 but never bought again because it kept going up and up and I thought it couldn't possible go higher. I'm hoping Tesla is like that. Oh well:smile:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The stock price continues to baffle me. Up a non-trivial amount yesterday, back down today. I guess until Tesla ships it doesn't really matter what news, blogs, or store openings happen.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The whole market is in the toilet today; though TSLA is down more than the market, it's not too far out of line (my casual guess is that TSLA's beta is about 2.0, i.e. a 1% drop in the market leads to a 2% drop in TSLA, all other things being equal).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Bouncy, bouncy.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow!!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looks like we might retest the $27.50ish level. Cash at the ready.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Too many speculators and technical players. Not enough value investors!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Anyone care to send me �2k so I can buy some more?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good news for me. The dip today triggered my $29 order. :D Can't wait for after deliveries and the next year to come!!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Can be said for the market as a whole I'm afraid. You know what they say, "If you can't beat them, join them."
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Guess I should have sold at $32 and put in the $29 limit. I was so close to doing so ...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hindsight. If we knew what it was going to do, we'd all be rich. If you'd sold at 32 and bought at 29, yeah, you'd have made money. But it could just as easily have gone up and you'd either lose money buying back in, or miss out on future gains. That's why I just watch it out of curiosity now. I've got all the shares I plan on buying, and I'm holding them for the long term.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I just got lucky is all. Had money available to buy, but only at a price. If the market hadn't dipped, neither would have TSLA probably and I'd still be sitting on my order, and I would have been perfectly OK with that outcome also. I'm in for the long regardless how many shares I end up with.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Mine too. Another 115 shares. Now I'm at a nice round number of shares. And I definitely don't have any more liquid assets to buy more. TSLA now has my permission (Ha!) to just go up. Of course I don't expect that to happen until after the 22nd.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yup, my friend from Los Altos (38yrs) asked if I was getting the two-seater Tesla when I said I wanted to go by the Santana row store if I make it to the area. He works on games and graphic design and has always kind of been into cars. Still shocked at how sparsely know Tesla is. Also My cousin visited over the Mem weekend. His girlfriend works for G /Android and he hadn't seen the S and barely knows of it!! It's Coming! I showed him some of the latest vids :eek: hehe
    and TSLA asks me for yet more money
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was awake a half hour before opening yesterday, but fell asleep for just a minute right at 8AM. I had intended to sell everything and re-buy in the dip, but I'm sure I'll get another chance to do that before the Model S release. It's starting to be a pretty predictable pattern that seems like it might have one more iteration, at least. 8^D But heck, as a short-term value investor I can live with only making the amount I'll get from buying at 28 and selling at... (well, 40 gets tossed around a lot!) 8^D Or not. Maybe just leaving it. Depends on if I decide to buy an S. I'm still on the fence over the X.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    28.01. Wow
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I could not help myself, I just bought another 30 shares :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I bailed while I still had a profit. I wonder where it's headed? 27.91 now... Hey, there's still two more hours (well, 6 if you count after-hours) of trading time this week for TSLA to do crazy stuff!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I couldn't help myself: I put in another limit order for 30 shares at $25. And I transfered another $500 into the brokerage account so that when it arrives I can up that to 50 shares. I don't really expect it to drop to $25, but the way it's acting, you never know, and if it does I'll grab a few more shares. Another brokerage (a small local one nobody is likely to have heard of) just came in line with Wunderlich, upgrading to Buy and giving a $42 target price.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Me too. Got some more. I'm done now. Have too much in Tesla with cars and stocks. It'll be hats and jackets now for a long time
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm in. I've been talking about buying in since the big dip in January. I'm now a happy partial owner.

    And I finished up for the day! 8^)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, well, you know how it is. Anyway, I didn't buy. I just put in a limit order in case it goes really low.

    Not too much chance of that. I think Warren Buffet knows a little more about investing than I do. :biggrin:

    * * * * *

    On another topic, someone said to me today, "That's all-electric, isn't it?" More and more people know what my car is. I wonder if all the news coverage of SpaceX is bleeding over to increased public awareness of Tesla. Some folks in this thread have wondered out loud whether the success of the Dragon mission would affect TSLA share price. I didn't think it would. But here's something I think is possible: That by making people more aware of Tesla, and showing that Elon Musk is a guy who can get things done right, SpaceX might help boost sales of the Models S and X, and so give important support to the company. The market might not react to that in the short term, but it would increase profitability and in the long term that will mean higher stock price.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    ^ Surprising. The Motley Fool usually has nothing good to say about Tesla.

    He talks about the S having a range of "nearly 300 miles" and in the same article he mentions the Aerovironment quick chargers that can supposedly charge a car in 30 minutes. If I'm not mistaken, those chargers can charge a Leaf to 80% in 30 minutes. Assuming an 85-mile range, that's just under 70 miles. So every hour of driving you stop for 30 minutes. But since he does not mention that these are two different systems, he's giving the impression of 30 minutes of charging for every 300 miles of driving.

    The Motley Fool seems to get it wrong even when they're saying good things about EVs.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    seeking alpha anti ev flake

    SeekingAlpha

    This guy is so biased and needs to be shredded for his hidden agenda of apparently shorting TSLA

    Makes me wonder about seeking alpha allowing such trash on its site.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I've stopped reading anything from Peterson, and I'd encourage everyone here to do the same. I think he simply enjoys baiting us (collectively). As they say in the zoo, "Please don't feed the animals."
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree. If you're ever able to start your counter blog (I know you have work restrictions on what you can write), I think that would be great. Your expertise and knowledge of the electrical industry would be great for articles for us to point to.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, indeed. I suspect he watches this thread and enjoys the reaction from us. And, by linking back to his article from here, we are only driving more traffic there and SeekingAlpha can only be too happy with that!

    Sad that Yahoo Finance automatically puts up all articles written about TSLA on SeekingAlpha up in the News section without any curation.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The SA editors have requested that I start writing articles instead of commenting, but it just doesn't seem as much fun. Maybe I'll give it a shot.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No question that writing is mostly hard work.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You should do it. We need someone who knows this topic to write intelligent articles dissecting what's wrong with his articles. We can then post links to it in his comment section:). I doubt he'd allow that though.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It could be done without directly attacking him. Just write about the positives and let folks draw their own conclusions.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree. Just take his arguments one by one and provide actual evidence and facts why he is wrong. No need to call him a fifth grader or make references to unicorns (JP's favorite attack lines).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I too have decided to not comment on JP's posts. His premises are based on numeric assumptions and assumptions that car buyers only care about numerics.

    It's the taste of Kool-Aid that I'm selling.


    *Gibberish thread*
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    He seems to think that the Model S competes with the Prius.... let him continue to think that.
    �
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