Thứ Sáu, 28 tháng 10, 2016

TSLA Investor Discussions part 1

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Are you sure? I've read that companies go out of their way to prevent that. See:
    Generic trademark - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    The reason is that if your brand name becomes the main word to describe the product, the brand name becomes (by U.S. law at least) public domain.

    Luckily, "Electric Vehicle" is quite universal, so I don't think Tesla's in trouble.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I guess there are two ways to look at it. On one hand if you are small like Tesla, the brand recognition is a good thing! I guess you can argue that once you are big enough to encourage such notoriety then you would want to protect your IP. Maybe if you are selling a product like "Kleenex tissues" ("facial tissues" being the generic descriptor) or "Velcro Brand fasteners" for Velcro brand name hook-and-loop fasteners." Those are things people will not use a search engine (I avoided using the term "googling" there) to look for.

    But you have to admit, from an advertisers standpoint, when someone tell's you to Google it, you are less likely to pull it up on Bing or Yahoo! search aren't you? If you associate a copier with a company and think, "Xerox" then you are more likely to look them up. I know Apple is very protective of their logo's and likeness to a fault. Maybe I just think it's idiotic to not want that notoriety associated with your product because they don't want to be accused of being narcissistic? Maybe? :)

    Then again, what do I know, I'm just an IT guy... :D
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well TSLA is down about 21% from its peak on 3/27. But most stocks are down over the same period. The broader market is struggling, and so will TSLA. Stocks are highly correlated these days. Just the nature of the beast. TSLA dropped over 26% last summer when the markets tanked over Euro zone fears. Those declines had little to do with Tesla's own prospects. If the markets continue to trend down (and who would be surprised after the unprecedented gains seen between 10/4 and Q1 of this year), then TSLA will be dragged down with it. I wouldn't be shocked if TSLA drops another 20% from here.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If it's going to happen, I'd prefer that it happens before the first production Model S rolls off that shiny new assembly line. I haven't purchased any stock yet. 8^D

    On edit: I'm not sure how you're calculating that number 21%. Maybe I'm missing something? On 3/27 the peak price was $37.94. Today, even at its lowest point, the price was exactly $31 (which obviously triggered a little bit of buying). 37.94 - 31= $6.94. That's a bit over 18% of $37.94. Unless I've lost my mind.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I've noticed this. And it kind of mystifies me. Of course, I've never claimed to understand the market, which is why as I've so often repeated, my "real" investments are in mutual funds; I don't try to pick stocks.

    I wonder if most shares nowadays are held in indexed mutual funds so that when investors redeem their mutual fund shares, the funds have to sell, and every issue goes down, and when investors buy fund shares, the funds have to buy stock shares and every issue goes up. I have no idea at all if this is the case. I'm just wondering. It could explain the linkage of diverse issues. That would leave a smaller number of shares being traded individually, to react to actual news about any particular company. Managed funds could be doing indexing as well: Preferentially holding the issues the manager likes, but within that allocation buying and selling all their holdings in response to their investors' buying or redeeming shares of the fund. The manager would react to news about a given company, while investors' actions would affect all the fund's holdings equally. Again, I'm just wondering.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    A positive Seeking Alpha article:
    Tesla Motors: A Stock Worth Betting On - Seeking Alpha

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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It closed at $37.94 on 3/27, but its intraday high was $39.95, which also happens to be its all-time high.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    $39.95-$31=8.95, 8.95/39.95= 22.4%. So yeah, if you change what you said from "TSLA is down about 21% from its peak on 3/27" to "TSLA is down about 22% from its all-time high" you have a true statement there. :tongue:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not true. They hate this.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Stock prices are correlated because so much of almost every company's value depends on overall economic well-being . This correlation is called a stock's beta, which translates a 1% change in the broader market into a beta% change in the particular equity's price. Stocks tend to have a beta of about 1.0. I'm guessing that TSLA is much higher.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks. So I think what you're saying is that a lot of the buying and selling of a stock (or the differential between buy orders and sell orders) is investors reacting to the overall economy rather than to considerations about the company itself. I guess I can understand that.

    Yep. I got that, too. I read Elon's letter to stockholders, and the stuff about the matters being voted on (two new board members and Price Waterhouse as auditor) and skimmed a few more pages and then stopped reading. VERY long document.

    I voted FOR and FOR. There are companies and funds I don't trust even when I own their stock, and I sometimes vote against the board's recommendations, for all the good it does. But I like and trust Tesla, and I like and trust Elon Musk. So I voted with the board's recommendations. Again, as if my 150 shares are going to make any difference.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think it was renewing 2 Directors (Kimbal Musk being one of them) rather than brand new ones?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What list are you on to get this?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I dunno, I thought I just got it for owning shares *shrug*
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    All shareholders should get voting materials. I haven't seen mine yet, but I got them last time there was a shareholder vote...

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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I got mine from e*trade this morning at 5:45 in an email.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If it helps identifying, I trade with Sharebuilder
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I hold my shares with Wells Trade. I get this sort of stuff electronically. Snail mail would come more slowly and is (for me) a waste of paper.

    I stand corrected about the vote for the two directors. I imagined they were new ones, but I had no reason to think that.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Fair value $16?

    Featured Call: Short Shares of Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA) | SumZero

    Who are these clowns? Anyone understand what they are talking about? The math isn't really provided. They seem to ignore Teslas other sources of revenue and ignore the possibility that they will introduce something that hasn't been revealed yet.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You gotta love it.

    "Analyst consensus opinion is that Tesla will achieve near-flawless Model S production, meet or exceed sales targets in 2012 and 2013, and pave the way for the introduction of new models like the X and Gen 3 sedan. The company faces significant challenges in order to execute this strategy successfully, and there are tremendous broader risks such as underwhelming interest in electric vehicles."

    Underwhelming interest in electric vehicles? Which is why so many majors are turning to Tesla for their electric drive trains, so they won't be left behind? It's as if these people actually think the Mayan calendar ends in 2012. Let me explain something to you clowns! Gas is going up, up, up! And there's nothing you can do about it!

    I gotta say something here before I forget about it. I don't know how many of you watch evtv.me every week (I do religiously) but Jack Rickard got ahold of an A123 battery pack used in the Fisker last week and he blew up just one cell attempting to charge it. Upon close examination, he realized that the entire unit is spot-welded together making it impossible to repair. On the other hand, should a single cell fail in a Tesla, the cell has two fuses which will disconnect it from the pack so the pack can live on without any immediate service. Elon has foresight. He's not going to make stuff that doesn't perform.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ouch!
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    guest
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    guest
    5000 electric drive trains on the ground.
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    guest
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Almost down a buck!
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    guest
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The 200 day moving average is around $30. I would be shocked if we fall through that. I think we'd need really bad news for that to happen.
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    guest
    EDIT,,
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hah! It dropped a buck! One hour to go.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes you have to fill out and sign forms stating that you are experienced enough to trade options. You can do it on paper for now just for fun and to learn.

    Options are traded in 100 share lots ("contracts") although the price of the option is per share. So 1 contract of the Sept 31 Puts is $480 - someone selling the Put is buying 100 shares of TSLA at $26.20 ($31-4.80) if TSLA is above that price by Sept 31. The person buying the Put is betting that the price will be lower than $26.20 (theoretically buy at the lower price and sell at $31) or just getting insurance as an owner of shares in case the stock tanks. Since there's a time value of this, the price of 31 PUTS at different dates will be greater as the time period increases. In the example of why someone would sell $2 June Puts, maybe they bought lower when the stock was a lot higher or they want to get into TSLA sooner than Sept.

    Good luck and have fun!

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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This strikes me as a pretty legitimate bear case presentation. I would summarize it as:
    1) Tesla's present market capitalization (stock price times number of shares) of $3.5billion is unwarranted. For instance, GM sells more cars in 2 hours that Tesla has in years, and its market cap is only 10X larger.
    2) They don't believe Tesla will deliver 5,000 cars in 2012 nor 20,000 cars in 2013. Production delays are likely.
    3) 20,000 cars in 2013 would be 8% of the large luxury car market. That's a big chunk to get all of a sudden, even if they could ramp up to that production speed.
    4) Model S's ASP (Average Selling Price) will be about 60% more than the ASP of the BMW 5-series.
    5) Even under the "optimistic scenario", Tesla's Enterprise Value (EV) to Earnings (EBITDA) ratio is twice that of Toyota and 8X that GM.

    So, even with flawless execution (5K vehicles in 2012, 20K in 2013), they think the stock should be less than what it is. Factor in that they think Tesla won't make their sales numbers and you get a strong case for shorting Tesla.

    Toyota's $100 million deal is roughly equivalent to 400 Model S's over 3 years, so it's kind of in the noise. The new partially-announced Daimler deal is probably similar in size.

    It's hard for them to imagine a hard-core manufacturing company to be trading at growth company multiples.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
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    guest
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I always find comparisons to GM odd since its stock has been going down since its IPO, even though business has been growing. I don't know enough about GM to tell what is going on there, but that seems a story in itself, and not a good benchmark.

    From a bear point of view, those are valid questions to ask, but they seem to look only at 2013 (and ignoring any powertrain business, Tesla hinted at potentially larger contracts).

    Whereas most investors (I think) see Tesla as a long term potential.

    You mean 400 per year? Larger contract sizes have been mentioned as possibilities (and seem likely to me, for example for the RAV4). Daimler has already received more that 2,600 power trains (packs + chargers, though), I think.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Relax, Cali. They want to push the price down so they can buy in cheap before it goes up. :smile:

    It kind of sounds too good to be true. So it's probably just as well that I'm excluded from trading options.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The key thing to remember with the Model S is that allot of people who are planning on buying one would not have been planning on buying a luxury care other than the model s, so saying that the Model S is shooting for 8% of the luxury market is not quite accurate. I know that if I was not planning on buying a model S in 2013, I would probably be buying a Hyundai Sonta hybrid, a Volt, or the new plug in Fusion. I am sure that I am not the only future model s owner who is going to be buying a car that costs twice as much as the cars he cross shopped with.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Right on. If there had not been a Tesla Model S in this world, I'd have been driving a Leaf already; the average price of the 5 new cars that I ever bought is about $35K...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I met a school teacher who was visiting the Houston store from out of state while I was visiting the store. He said his wife is also a school teacher and they have a very early production Model S on order so he's been tracking this for years as well. This will be his first new, and most expensive car, ever and he's excited. If Tesla can attract more customers like this who are getting the car because they simply have to have it then that's a good sign. He also made the rational argument that upgrading from his 18 mpg truck over 8 years will save about $25,000.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sorry - yes, about 400 Model S's per year over 3 years is about $100million in revenue, so the same total dollar amount as the deal with Toyota for Rav4 powertrains.

    BTW, I do not believe the short articles are from people trying to push the stock down so they can acquire a long position cheaply. I think they really believe it. Making good cars isn't easy, and making money off of making cars is even harder. If you're a history buff, you look at Tucker or DeLorean. If you look at today's successful companies, even Toyota and Ford have not been good investments. So, it's natural to think Tesla won't be, either.

    It's interesting to hear about people who buy a Volt as the most expensive car they've ever bought, and the some Model S deposit holders who are doing likewise. While good, I gotta believe that's going to be a hard way to grow sales. Can Tesla really capture 8% of the luxury price market within 18months, and 12.5% within 3 years?

    My point here is acknowledge the very real challenges Tesla is facing. We all here want and expect them to succeed, but we shouldn't drink the Kool-Aid. It sounds easy to buy TSLA at $30 and sell at $60 during the upcoming short squeeze later this year, but I can guarantee you it isn't going to be easy.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Are those their stated goals? From what I understand the global luxury market sells >500,ooo vehicles a year. Tesla's goal of selling 20,000 is a pretty modest goal imo. That's less than 5% of then industry and I think I'm being conservative on the size of the Luxury market, I think it may actually be bigger.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    However $100 million would also be for a very small volume of RAV4-s. But perhaps Toyota (initially) intends to sell only small volumes. We'll know more on Monday.

    The large number of shorts was already present at lower prices. I think that's people who think Tesla will not be successful at all.

    BMW 5-series is 211,000, BMW 7-seriess about 65,000. And that's just BMW. Could Tesla sell 7.2% of what BMW sells? Why not if Tesla becomes a popular choice among those looking forward to EVs and good sedans.

    If it happens, then it happens easily. ;) I think we all know that there are big challenges. It is just that there are also big possibilities and good work done by Tesla. That's why there are both a lot of shorts (= pessimism), and a lot of optimism, at the same time. We'll know more towards the end of the year, but if you wait until success is evident in the numbers, by then the stock will already have gone up. You could think that so many people expect Tesla to succeed, that nothing much will change when it becomes fact, but the number of shorts speaks against that. The high number of shorts suggest that the stock will go up if Tesla is even moderately successful. At least that's what I think, not an expert at all.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I wonder if Elon's been spending a majority of his time at SpaceX lately, with the upcoming launch.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    20k is 8%? I though it was a much, much smaller percentage than that. There's really only ~250,000 "luxury" cars sold per year?

    Edit: 8% can't be right. This link says there were 84k luxury car sales in April alone.
    Auto Sales - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I guess it depends on what you define as a luxury car. If you are writing a negative article you only include the top 250,000, if you are writing a positive one you include a lot more.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
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    guest

    Aren't you the one who wants the price to go down just so you can buy even more? ;)
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    guest
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Revisiting Elon's dual-company CEO act, can't begin to imagine the stress he must be under; the SpaceX launch has now been pushed out all the way to May 19th. I'd forgive him if he's rather incoherent at the TSLA earnings call on May 9th:

    http://m.cnet.com/news/57428445

    On a lighter note, the Dragon capsule is apparently ferrying disinfectant wipes and garbage bag liners :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Perhaps what they really mean to say is the luxury car market for cars over $50k. You can't say the BMW 1-series (or base 3-series), Acura TL, or Lexus IS are in the same class even though they could certainly all be considered luxury cars.

    I do agree that a lot of the reservation holders who are buying the Model S would not have bought another $50k+ luxury car instead. They either aren't in the market for any car but find the Model S special enough to either replace their perfectly good existing car, or simply add to it. Or they would have gotten a cheaper, more practical car (Volt, Leaf, Prius, etc.). So I am in agreement that Tesla doesn't need to steal luxury car market share in order to succeed. They are largely creating an entirely new market. I do feel though that this is more true now of the early reservation holders, since we all tend to be ardent supporters of Tesla and EVs. As Tesla wants to expand they will need to more so compete head-to-head against the other $50k+ luxury cars.

    With that said though, Tesla definitely has its work cut out for it to hit 20k cars next year. Hitting 5,000 Model S's this year is only an issue of capacity. If they can make them, we certainly know there are enough reservation holders waiting to take them. Given that there are roughly 10,000 reservation holders now, that means they need to sell an additional 15,000 in 2013 to hit their target of 20,000. That's no small task when you consider that the Roadster sold just 2,000 in its lifetime and that the Volt and Leaf both missed their target of 10,000 sold in 2011. I can certainly see Tesla selling 15,000 Model S's in 2013, but 20,000 is going to be very difficult.

    As for the stock. Assuming they don't have any production setbacks and have the capacity to hit the 5,000 number this year, that will be big for its stock. The stock will shoot up based on its early successes and growing potential. However, as reality sets in 2013 and the growing pains become evident, I wouldn't be surprised to see TSLA give back a bunch of those gains. This is going to be a rollercoaster for years to come :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I could probably trade in options through my broker. But then I'd have to pay a commission and that would take a chunk out of the profit, and would cost me another commission if conditions dictated buying back the contract before its due date. My on-line account gives me 100 free trades a year, of which I use maybe 6 or 8, tops. But anyway, I don't want another 100 shares.

    Absolutely true! I'd never have bought a three-wheeled car if it had not been electric. I'd never buy a sports car if it was not electric (or, in the case of the Porsche, destined to become electric). It's a common fallacy to claim that if a person had not made decision X he'd have made decision Y. I voted for Candidate C in an election, and then had people tell me, if you had not voted for C, A would have won instead of B. But I'd never have voted for A, so their reasoning is fallacious. Similarly, the Model S will bring people into the "luxury" car market who'd never buy a luxury car if it was not electric. There's a pent-up demand for electric, and even though Leaf and to some extent Volt are easing some of that demand, the Model S will expand the sector. It's not a zero-sum game.

    Knowing when or how to judge anything about the price of a stock is pretty much impossible. That's because people react to a variety of impulses, including each other's trading, and it's a chaotic feedback system. Betting on the success or failure of a company is a crap shoot. Speculating on short-term fluctuations is a crap shoot to the umpteenth power.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    When Tesla's market cap is so big people start talking about Tesla buying out Porsche, Audi, or GM you'll know it's time to take the money and run.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think that Tesla will have more challenges selling 20k Model Ss in 2014 than in 2013. There is pent-up demand for this car. The key is going mainstream.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That's my thinking as well. Telsa has noted Roadster owners tend to cluster, if every current S reservation holder causes 1 other person to buy, the 2013 year is pretty much a done deal. How that extends out to 2014 though, who knows.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I've sold two Model S and one Model X to people I know - I have every reason to believe that if they love their vehicles as much as I love my Roadster, they will also sell more Tesla vehicles to their friends and acquaintances.

    The Roadster, while sales are clustered, is a fairly pricey vehicle. Most people just say, 'if only ...'. As Model S, Model X, and then Gen III hit the market, we may see a .different story
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Also there will be press.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    BMW 3 series does goes up to $61k, but even if you just count BMW 5-series (starts at $45k, but with gasoline savings and novelty value, Model S $50k can match that) and BMW 7-series, those are 211,000 and about 65,000 per year, BMW alone. So the 8% figure for the whole market cannot be even close to what the actual numbers for these price ranges are.

    One way in which Tesla will do this is to introduce additional models like the Model X. And then of course Bluestar. These arguments are not based on facts or even market analysis, just someone looking at the financial reports and putting his personal pessimism in words.

    It seems your numbers are based on incorrect information about the market size, as I pointed out above.

    The Roadster is something completely different. Also Leaf and Volt are not comparable for three main reasons
    a) they don't make profit and hence the companies have no real reason to sell lots of them.
    b) both Leaf and Volt have a severely limited electric range which narrows down the market size they might appeal to.
    c) they don't have long-trip fast-charging which (in the view of many in the the mainstream, but also in my view) is the defining point of elevating EVs to "a", or even "the", valid future technology. (I'd call the Leaf's fast-charging good for medium trips, even though you could also do long-trips if you wanted to, but in the US there is no infrastructure yet). Tesla will hopefully begin implementing a backbone this year, in significant steps.

    I'd call that "pessimism", not "reality". And which "growing pains" will become evident? You say that as if you already see them. Surely there will challenges of various flavors, but there isn't any reason to assume Tesla is not able to meet them, given that Tesla employs many with experience in the car industry. In the blog about winter testing, Tesla wrote: "After days of rigorous testing, we left more confident than ever that Model S will set the standard for premium performance � no matter what's in the forecast." Doesn't sound like a growing pain to me.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    While I know that some folks have made road trips in the Roadster, and that some major corridors will get fast-charging in the near term, most of our highways will have no convenient fast-charging options for a long time, and even "fast" charging adds considerable time to a trip.

    The Roadster goes 245 miles at 55 mph, which is about 4 1/2 hours of driving. I've read 53 kWh or 56 kWh, but I'll say 50 kWh, which at 240 v 70a is about 3 hours of charging. At 65 mph the figures are worse. So driving the Roadster roughly doubles the time needed for an extended road trip. Or let's say a day's driving is 9 hours. At 65 mph you drive 200 miles in 3 hours. Then you charge for 3 hours. Then you drive another 200 miles and then charge overnight. You've gone 400 miles. In a stinker you'd drive that same 400 miles in 6 1/2 hours, saving 2 1/2 hours. Or you'd drive the same 9 hours but you'd go 550 miles, with a half-hour break.

    My point is that even with fast charging (available only in a few places) an EV takes a lot longer. Driving is exhausting for me. As long as I can afford the gas I'll drive the stinker on road trips.

    HOWEVER (and this is the really critical point) most American families have more than one car but only need one road-trip car. An EV is the ideal choice for the second (and third) family car. And as most people replace cars only when they are wearing out, there is an enormous market for EVs for many years to come. And by the time a significant number of families have an EV, the first adopters will be starting to shop for a replacement for their by-then ten-year-old EV.

    The Roadster has shown people that an EV is not a golf cart. People used to see my Xebra and think "That's really cute, and it's amazing that it uses 2 cents worth of fuel (here in WA) per mile. But it's too slow and doesn't go far enough." Now they see my Roadster and think, "Wow, that's fabulous! But it won't fit my family and I cannot afford it." Soon they'll see the Model S on the road and think "Boy, that's the car for me, if only it was half the price." And when Bluestar comes out they'll be ready to accept it. And if gas is $6 per gallon by then, the incentive is that much greater.

    So I don't see public charging as a particularly significant factor, except maybe as it affects public perception. I see battery cost as the biggest obstacle. Right now battery longevity is a big question mark, but by the time Bluestar comes out there should be enough real-life data from the Roadster to answer that question, and if longevity is good that will cease to be an issue, just as with the Prius, there was widespread public doubt in 2004 but now the car is mainstream.

    So I think Tesla is on the road to success. But it's a success that will be shared with other EVs, and with REEVs. I think Ghosn is very serious about the Leaf and that the Leaf is a serious competitor. But I also think there's plenty of room in the market for several EVs.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You guys also seem to discount any market outside the US. Those 20k is worldwide production. Norway supposedly has the second largest amount of reservations in the world only beaten by USA. Tesla should be able to sell 1000 Model S and 1000 Model X here every year, if they price them right. The rest of Europe should be able to take a few 1000 Model S as well. You can see it here with the Leaf. It has made great strides here and it's not unlikely that Tesla might get a big Taxi order as well, those are Mercedes E-series usually now.
    Chinese customers like their large sedans, so Model S should sell decently there, especially when bigger cities force half the petrol cars to stay put on bad pollution days.

    In the short run, Tesla should be able to find customers to just 40k cars, I'm more skeptical of the Bluestar, it will get stiff competition from Leaf II, BMW I3 etc.

    Cobos
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good points, Cobos. If we can read anything into the Signature allocation, Tesla sees nearly half of its sales coming from Europe & Britain. EVs make tremendous sense in much of Europe, which is more densely built up than the U.S. There are no "Nevadas" in Europe (i.e., hundreds of thousands of sq.km.miles of lightly populated land with little infrastructure). An 85kWh Model S in Ireland, for example, could travel almost any two points without stopping to charge.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    First, if a fast-charger is available en route, 90 kW fast-charging may add a s little as 45 min to a 7 hour trip, and that's just maybe just 20 min more than most drivers stop for in any case. I think many if not most people would find that acceptable, and in itself it isn't something that would reduce the market significantly.

    Understanding this is important not only for actual use, but also for the willingness of people to support this technology. People want the profit which a car company is making from their purchase, to be invested in the right direction. They want to contribute to something that is going to work.

    The largest markets for EVs grow mostly around small geographical regions/cities such as in the US: LA, SF bay area, Portland, Seattle, Chicago, New York/Boston, Florida. This means that a moderately sized network along both coasts, and a few additional major transit routes, may already address many needs.

    In the long term, one should keep in mind that there are "only" about 130,000 gas stations (number varies, and goes down), and even many of those are at the same location, and often in places which an EV would cover with charging at home. Given that the US spends more than $400 billion *annually* on gasoline, a network equivalent in functionality to gas stations costs just a small part of those amounts we spend on gasoline.

    That is a market, but Nissan and other companies know that as well.

    The Model S is in a price segment with a significant market size of its own. The car market isn't just low-cost second cars. That would be narrowing it down to where other car manufacturers are already getting active, and where battery cost gets in the way.

    Battery cost is currently a given. Fast-charging is of course a way to allow an EV to cover a larger area without requiring an even more costly battery.

    However it *does* affect public perception, and for good reasons, one of them being that the technology must be viable for the future, not just for a niche market. It should be able to provide a completely solution. While some people may rationalize an EV with the gas cost savings, they know in the back of their head that it is to solve real problems. It can't do this if only suitable for a partial market. So there is a high value in showing that EVs can cover the whole area (both literally and figuratively).

    In the EV community there are many who keep pushing the low-cost component, as if there was a lack of understanding that cost is an important factor. Most car companies think so as well, and that is what makes them wait for better times. And those who don't wait, like Nissan, do shoot for the cost segment. Good for Tesla, but why keep pushing that if is already what most companies try to do?

    Cost always need to be in relation to the value provided, and fast-charging increases the value of the same battery. And thereby the market for the same product. And that is what is needed from a business perspective.

    I think we all agree that Bluestar will be a great thing, if battery costs comes down by then. My point is that Model S is also a valid product in itself. It also will become increasingly compelling as battery costs come down. In fact, Model S might sooner be able to reflect reduced battery costs than Bluestar. It, by itself, makes Tesla a viable company.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Maybe this has already been brought up before... but I don't plan on having a second car. I'm a just a shut-in? I don't tend to take road-trips but once or twice a year if I am lucky. Most years I don't go anywhere that is an hour outside my city. So I think there can be a lot of promise for consumers like myself who can use the Model S as their primary car. I often get the question "What will you do if you need to go on a road trip?". I think the answer for me is I will rent a car at that point. No sense to me having two cars to be honest, but that's just me and I am not a car person.

    .... well I WASN'T a car person until now. :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    LOL

    I have two cars because we both work and need to get there. Taking the bus would be about 2 hours each way for Denise to go ten miles because of the poor transit schedules. I would have to leave at about midnight--if it could even be done. The Model S is to be the primary car--the one we go on trips with. A decent supercharger network is really what will make this viable. Renting a car isn't an option because most trips are out of state.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    if a tourist can rent a car in LA to do natureparks out of California , I guess it must be possible for you too!
    I guess you return to the same place after your holliday, so no dropoff-charges will apply I guess! ;-)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Possible and practical are not the same things.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    OK, perhaps the 8% number was pulled out of that author's ass. Good to know they wouldn't need to capture such a large % of market share. But like I said, I think they're creating their own market anyways, so I wasn't hung up on that. I still contend that it's going to be tough to hit 20,000 next year. Not trying to pessimistic, juts trying to be realistic and identify the real challenges facing Tesla. This is an investment thread, right? It would be foolhardy to not acknowledge these hurdles. Like someone said earlier, you can't just drink the kool-aid.

    They have pent up demand. Assuming they don't have any setbacks with production, they will succeed in reaching their 5,000 target for this year. That will be received well by investors. The growing pains will be the challenge of getting enough new orders to hit that 20,000 mark for 2013. Investors will want to see profitability, revenue growth, and more wide-spread adoption for the stock price to justify the sort of multiples you see now and will likely continue to see through this year. You don't think I want Tesla to kick ass? Hell yeah I do, but to pretend it's gonna be a walk in the park without growing pains would be silly.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think the HPC is 18.8 kW. Will the Model S be able to charge at 90 kW, and is that the size of the fast chargers that Tesla is going to be installing? That's over 200 amps if it's 440 v. Would an ordinary person be able to even lift the connector and cable? If so, that changes everything, at least along the routes they'll be installed, and assuming there are enough of them that you don't have to wait for several cars to charge ahead of you.

    I didn't mean to downplay the validity of, or market for, the Model S. I was merely speaking about the path to widespread acceptance in the mass market, where the majority of cars are purchased. Elon Musk does not seem to want Tesla to be strictly a luxury car company. He wants to build and sell a car for the middle class. My point was that his path (Roadster, then S, then X, and then Bluestar) is ideally designed to change public perception from EV= golf cart, to EV= a car for the ordinary folks.

    And since most American families are multi-person and have more than one car, EV as commuter car nicely bridges the gap between today, and the future electric highway. Two-car families are not going to buy two news cars at the same time, but they don't need to for the EV industry to succeed. Public acceptance of EVs, production capacity of EVs, and public charging infrastructure, all take time to grow, and can all grow together symbiotically.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, I'll end up with some cash to put into TSLA, but it'll likely happen after the 5/9 earnings call. I'm not sure if that's a good or bad thing.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's expected, but their loss will be huge since Roadster sales have wound down and Model S rampup costs are in full swing. The reasons are expected though. The transfer times from one account to another are just such that I'll be on the cusp of a 5/9 purchase before the earnings call.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Maybe the earnings call will send the stock down to where my limit order executes. Hey, I can hope! Plenty of time for it to go back up after the Model S deliveries begin.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looks like TSLA's well on its way to < $30. Down more than 5.5% today to $30.66 right now.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What a freaking disgrace. The fact that manipulators can cause a 5-6% drop like this is absurd. What prompted this? There is 0 negative news. Earnings are tomorrow. One would think the release of the RAV 4 was a bad thing. WTH. I'm about to have a heart attack. What is causing this? Earnings should be a plus!!!! WTH!!!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Stop it. The entire market is reacting, not just TSLA. This drama is ridiculous.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My bum the market is falling. Tesla hasn't fallen 5-6% on no news with this type of volume since the 2 execs left. What gives? Earnings is tomorrow, and the RAV 4 unveil was yesterday. I don't think it's a coincidence this is happening today. What happened?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, it's all Greek and Latin to me anyway ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hi Cali. Good to hear from you. You can blame me for the drop. I'm using the psychic power of my brain to make the stock to go down so I can get a few more shares cheap. After that, I'll release it from the grip of my iron will and I'll start working on making AAPL go down to $5 a share so I can pick up some of that. :wink:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Apple being down 13-14% is normal trading. It's simply touching its prior low before rocketing to new highs. Normal volume on Normal movement. This movement is not normal. What was announced or is going to be announced after the close that would prompt this nonsense?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Cali, it's the nature of volatile stocks; they suffer more on a bad day for the markets (given the political troubles in Greece). For e.g., take CRM - all positive news but, down about the same % as TSLA; going by your heart attack thing, gotta check on my Salesforce-employee wife :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Bad comparison. Salesforce.com is a web company. Web companies are insanely volatile. TSLA hasn't dropped this much on any geo-political nonsense ever, unless it was followed by a downgrade/ bad news of some kind. I'd gladly bet some sort of news is coming out at the end of the day.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Where is that LIKE button??
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You guys are horrible :cursing:

    This manipulated stock is going down the toilet for absolutely no reason!!!!! Tesla is an amazing company, but hedge Funds are playing this baby like a puppet. Really freaking annoying me.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not sure what'd convince you but, take a look at how institutional investors react in such times of uncertainty:

    Wall Street hits 2-month low on Greek uncertainty - Yahoo! Finance

    TSLA is not a "defensive" stock. And, I'd argue that it's very sensitive to the state of the economy; folks are less likely to spring for cars in a downturn (as seen in the period from 2008-2010) let alone a relatively-pricey premium EV.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is just the last leg of the march to the 200-day moving average that we have been on ever since we topped. No surprises here. We are just above the 200-day now. With earnings coming up tomorrow, I say as long as they affirm they are on track for delivery this summer, we are within $1 of the bottom.

    In fact, going to go buy some right now.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't think Greece has anything to do with this. Elon Musk, Defend your company!!!! You better give us some good news, otherwise I'm selling 100% Thursday morning. I'm sick and tired of this waiting game!!!! Still sticking to this 200dma nonsense. Why did it pick today of all days to complete reverse? I am seriously crying!!!!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Oh, and if you don't like the CRM comparison (which I thought was apt) then go look at CLNE.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Cali - this correction was coming and everyone knew it. TSLA stock is very volatile. Its the nature of the stock market. You have lost nothing as long as you don't sell. You'd have to be crazy to sell on a dip on a volatile stock. As fast as it dips it can just as easily spike. It has done both in the past 2 years.

    This is a buying opportunity in my opinion. LONG LIVE TESLA MOTORS!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, I just cracked the screen of my Mac after seeing Tesla down 8%. This earnings report better be good. I'm off to go get really drunk so I can be passed out all of tomorrow.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You will make a fine father someday.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You best believe it :cool:

    May as well spend the night doing anything to take my mind off the world falling apart, and my money flowing down the drain.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'll buy your shares at $29 :biggrin:. Just paid $29.82 for some.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If anyone would be so kind as to explain what type of technical analysis bull causes a stock to drop 8% following the unveiling of a car that they are being paid a crap ton to produce, and one day before earnings that will include info about release dates for the Model S?

    Will someone please just remove Greece from Europe and let their country implode under its own stupidity so we can move on with sensible market gyrations?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What's the point if you have a coronary in your 20's and don't make it to your 30's. Chill OUT!! Remember you are investing for the LONG HAUL.


    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think this reaction is a reason why some people sell. A lot of people trying to sell lowers the price ... causing more people to sell. Eventually enough people start buying, and the flaky investors are all sold out.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I remember someone mentioning to me that covering of shorts causes momentary selling pressure, resulting in this type of thing. Is that true?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    For all of califlower's emotional response, I am curious what's prompted the giant drop today. The market is down, but nothing like TSLA and this is a big variation even for TSLA.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Some here at $29.81 :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, the good news is for my local investment club. They had a buy order at $30.02. They got it today.

    I think the drop is a general process of people panicking. An overreaction to the general drop in the market.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You've got it backwards. Short covering causes a short term rise in price because in order to cover a short the individual needs to buy shares. This is not what caused this to happen, but will contribute to pulling us out of the nose dive.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No news? The news is that they're releasing earnings tomorrow. That's all the news you need. As a company gets closer to its earnings announcement, especially one that is already heavily shorted and volatile, uncertainty creeps in and volatility of the stock only increases further. The fact is, there's a lot of uncertainty heading into this call so it's not surprising that you'd see both sides (shorts and longs) close their positions so as to not take on the risk of how the stock will move after earnings. Today it appears it's the longs that are risk-off. Could easily change tomorrow before market close, when they announce.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There's a speculator saying: "Buy on the rumor, sell on the news". I think SOME of the movement is that the people who were waiting for the RAV4 news to take their profit have now done so. Some people (even here, including me) take the RAV4 press release as a disappointment: it's pretty clearly a limited production "compliance car", whereas we were hoping for something that would energize the world from the company that brought us the Prius. And lastly, the market as a whole, and the fact that a volatile stock amplifies the overall market's movement.

    So, I've tried to give you a reasoned response to your question. These are hard lessons to learn. The main lesson is, keep cool.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So you're going to lock in your loss? This is not a winning strategy... it's an emotional reaction. I can pretty much predict that you'll regret it.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just put in a new buy order, just under $30. I think I'm done now. :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I hope it keeps falling. I can already buy back in more shares than I sold but I would like to do even better. Peterson bring out more FUD!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    haha. Monthly meltdowns by Cali are always entertaining.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Smartest thing you've ever posted. Sell all your shares and get out, you have no business investing in the stock market at all. I'm not sure you're even stable enough to walk around in public on your own.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If you knew what I was dealing with at the moment, you wouldn't be saying that :cursing:
    And no, I'm not talking about the stock. That's just icing on the cake.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    With all due respect (everyone says that before saying something insulting) but if the market can rattle you that much, then maybe investing in stocks isn't for you? You have to take the emotions out if it or else it will rule you. You will never be in control of your money if it's controlling you. Market fluctuations are a part of the game and YES, the stock market is a nasty game and a heartless bitch. If you can't work with her, she will own you. Now, I from what I read about what Toyota released, frankly, I took it as bad news, yes, I said it, BAD NEWS!

    Here is why: The Rav4 is too expensive ($50k before tax breaks, like others I was thinking $40k before tax breaks was more in line) for what it is, a 100 mile range pure electric with OK performance and not what you come to expect from a Tesla Powertrain (but not Tesla's fault). And then compound that with the fact that they announced they will only produce 2,600 over the next 3 years and will only sell it in 4 California markets. It's pretty awful to put it mildly.

    Then don't forget, Tesla Motors has a lot of people who want to see it fail and put money behind shorting it. If you are Long on Tesla then stop watching it everyday unless you are looking to add to your position. Otherwise, if you can't take the heat, stay out of the kitchen!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm forced to disagree. Also, for me to sell any position at this moment would be stupid. It is $1 from it's absolute (The execs are leaving and the company is falling apart bottom). I bought @ 34. I'm not selling until after earnings , at the very least. This is still pissing me off. We lost 28% from the top for absolutely no reason.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Or, perhaps we got to $39 for absolutely no reason, and the price is just returning to a more reasonable level.

    Actually, I think we have probably overshot the reasonable level now and are too low. I don't pretend to know for sure, but that's what it looks like from my perspective. This is why I sold at $39 and why I'm buying now.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, your going to stress yourself out and get sick if you don't learn to reel back those emotions. Just trying to look out for your long term well being... :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I suppose the financial numbers from Tesla, by themselves, might not look very good on paper this quarter since there probably have been larger investments for the upcoming Model S production, and fewer Roadster/powertrain sales, than usual. Which would be as expected, but the market often responds to such short-term changes nevertheless.
    �
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