Thứ Sáu, 28 tháng 10, 2016

Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements part 45

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow this feels like some short covering.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    Yup, it's squeeze time.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    After watching this earnings and the last one. My new strategy is to buy after earnings.

    My play this morning is doing great but it hasn't made up for the hit I took to iv last night. It's getting close though. I got back all I put into my puts with this play but some of my calls are still underwater.

    My otm calls I bought this morning are ITM now. :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That was a nice move grabbing the calls at the open, congrats, but I would counter your strategy that the stock could've easily gapped up and that opportunity would not have presented itself. Curious to see how Q4 ER pans out in this respect.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    yes, I doubt this is a pattern one could count on. We dropped 3.3% yesterday, went up 7% in AH, opened FLAT, then went up to 6%. That is a very odd thing. It should have gapped up at the open.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What I was suggesting was merely to leave SOME capital to play immediately AFTER the market opens. This way if another opportunity like this presents itself you have something to play with. (Although, I guess that issue could be solved with a margin account, right? But some of us choose not to play that way.) Really I shouldn't have touched the options pre-earnings anyway, and knew that this was likely a bad decision... but seeing the price drop yesturday and I couldn't help it. I think if we had a positive macro-market today and if the shorts hadn't driven the price down this morning, things might have panned out better, but overall it was likely very stupid to play the pre-ER market.

    But if you are going to, you should probably still leave yourself something for the post-IV crush to really play the extra movement that happens after the market opens, because it has never really sat still and traded flat post ER. So buying something in the morning and selling it in the afternoon would be a good cheap play that assuming you got the direction right would pay out well enough.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I bought ITM call two weeks out yesterday, which is up very nicely today. I also couldn't resist the drop yesterday and and to counteract IV crush, bought ITM call.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It sunk 7% again in the PM, which opens at 4 AM EST, back to yesterday's close, which explains the flat open.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Right. Up 7% in the aftermarket, back to zero in the premarket then up to 6% in the regular session. That deep V hasn't been seen before. Usually the regular session will gap up (on good days) or down (on bad days) and it is too late to get the full range for the reaction to the ER. This one was a bizarre anomoly in that if your timing was excellent, you could have bought shares at yesterdays closing price this morning and had a 5-6% increase in the regular session. Strange.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Tesla Motors expanding facilities in Tilburg for european deliveries.
    TM renting a new warehouse in Tilburg to double assembly work to 50km2 in April:
    Google �bersetzer
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, I had the 'tea leaves' right about delivery and production number and the ZEV credits being used to help the EPS this quarter. BUT...I was wrong about sitting on cash and buying a few puts for the ER. So, my core stock holdings, a few last minute 240J16 LEAPS (thanks CitizenT) and calls gave me a 'green' ER but certainly not as green as it could have been.

    So, I have bought back some trading shares today but am waiting for J17LEAP release in about 10 days to deploy more.

    Anyone see a big movement up in the next 10 days (over $250)? Every prediction I have made in the last 10 days has been A*s backwards!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I see a move from 240 through 255, but not further. Many people betting against tesla are trapped and the price will bounce down to 240 and not let them exit, so given 24 or 48 hrs the price will melt up a bit. I don't see much further movement because the results weren't stellar and didn't have any significant surprises. In fact, semi negative but we've flushed all the sellers out in the past 3 weeks.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Timing has gotten increasingly hard. I think it is time to just settle back with shares and have a 5 year timeframe. If it goes to say 800 by 2019 that is a 36% annual return. But, it might be -20% in 2016, then 50%, 50%. Options used to be the easy money but it is getting harder and harder to assume TSLA will take a straight path up, even if you are a bull.

    I have 2016 leaps and some March '15 I am holding since I think we are low historically, but if we hit 255-260 I would be temped to close those and go to all shares, and take a 5 year nap.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Put in an order last night to buy back the top part of my iron condor for 40 cents, it executed at 33 cents just after open. Probably could have done better but ill take it. Just wanted to protect myself from us going over 250 today or tomorrow, which I see as possible. At least, I hope it happens, haha, because i still have 260s for nov22 which aren't worth a lot.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am tempted to buy weeklies for next week. It seems to be bullish when the price is getting pegged to an option expiration value like today.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I just read this article about Elon Musk's involvement in plans to build large numbers of small communication satellites. The most remarkable thing about it is the comments on Tesla at the bottom - the consensus opinion seems to be that he is just a conman. I can't believe so many people still don't get it - it seems that the WSJ doesn't attract any readers who understand Tesla!
    http://online.wsj.com/articles/elon-musks-next-mission-internet-satellites-1415390062
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    WSJ currently owned by Murdoch. LOL
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Does he write the comments?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Draws the comix? :tongue:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Most likely RM attracts the audience that are like him - stuck in the past and fighting the future tooth and nail. No wonder they refuse to let go, RM and his ilk have so much to loose in a new equalizing world.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The more recent comments have a more pro-Musk slant; certainly pushing against the earlier anti-Musk comments.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow...didn't expect the pop on tsla today!
    Feel silly now selling $242.50 options exp 11/22 for $8. on a limit order. But a win is a win.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well I was right this time but didn't buy any options. I probably would have had I not lost all my gambling money on GTAT. Not that I'm complaining. So the pop happened while I was getting a root canal. Best root. canal. ever.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Maybe you should go to the dentist more often :) If you get root canals for the rest of the week we can be back at our ATHs :p
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good stuff today. Was able to exit some OTM Nov calls that I held over the ER at break even during the run this morning. Phew.

    If we close above the 50-day SMA (just above $250) I think the rest of the week could get interesting.

    As pointed out by several other wise posters here it seems the market is just about to start grasping the possibilities of stationary storage and the GF. Like I posted last week: the biggest news to me in the shareholder letter was that they expect the GF to output actual cells and packs in 2016. That could mean a whole lot for volumes in 2018-2019 and could mean the next 1-2 GFs might come a year sooner. Best way to protect your head start is to aggresively expand the distance between you and the competition. When others start thinking of building GFs Tesla will already have poured concrete for the next two...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My January and December calls are finally back in the green again... This has been a tough couple weeks for me. I really do regret playing the ER. But at least I learned something from this experience. But having a hard loss can be very demoralizing.

    I am likely to just hold these positions through either close to expiration or when they go to 100% returns and then roll them forward. I like having something on the table for days like this and I still think we will get some good news out of Tesla before Feb. Outside of that I am still a believer in this being the third rise following a similar pattern from previous, and it will culminate to breaking new highs either because of the next ER or slightly before it. We shall see what becomes of this.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sorry about your losses. Large losses can be shattering. I still carry capital losses from GFC time, but that comes handy now in this bull market, to offset my tax liabilities for gains. I am chipping away at those losses every year since then, but there is still plenty left. Pain is gone.

    Regarding TSLA play strategies, it is becoming harder and harder to predict short term move, so I stick to long term. Core shares and leaps, no short term play. I sell covered calls occasionally and whenever I do that stock hits ATH.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What's GFC?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008)

    With regards to short-term I really do believe we will se continued upwards pressure continue this week.
    (...and here's the predictable end-of-day rally pushing the value of the NovWk2 $255 calls up >50% as compared to a few hours ago. Here's to hoping for a gap-up start of trading tomorrow.)

    ... And a nice close well above the 50 day MA!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ah lucky you not to know that :biggrin:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was super lucky to have all my money tied up in Real Estate, which in this area did no go down.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was half lucky, as I was well diversified.

    The bad luck half was quite useful as well, I learned valuable investment lessons, such as the importance of diversification ( icon14.gif ), the extent of my inability to predict market moves :)mad:), the difficulties of selling out when the avalanche starts :)scared:), and how to cope with losing :)crying:).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was only focused on real estate investing at that time so I know it as the mortgage melt down and real estate bubble.

    I have an idea what happened during that time to AAPL investors thanks to ongba's compilation of the Apple finance board.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Memories of what happened to AAPL during the GFC and in the fall of 2012 still haunt me.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I bought aapl then at 85. Moved up to 130 and I sold. Thought I was a genius, ha
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    When I first started reading the doc I was just learning options. Now that I have been investing in options for over a year I now see how an event like that could easily be catastrophic. Unfortunately I did not have first hand experience so March and April this year were devastating to me. However now I hope I know a little better how to handle amazing months like February and the first part of March this year.

    Plus having tens of thousands of dollars evaporate into nothing in options I now know that an extended down cycle can cause the option investor to be totally wiped out, or worse pile on loads of debt if they were using margin as well.

    The power of leverage in options is amazing. The hard part for me is getting out soon enough. I tend to hold on too long hoping for the next multiple and end up loosing my gains.

    Had I been content with a 50% or 1x gain I probably would have been better off because there would have been lots of options I sold for a profit and not sold either for break even or total loss.

    I'm trying to teach myself to never be disappointed in any profits I take. As long as I'm always taking profits I can't go wrong.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So, $9+ up today, and I see nothing of note in my news feed. Did I miss something?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Today's pattern of bidding, offer acceptance and trading volume was suggestive of institutional accumulation of Tesla Motors shares.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is very reassuring. I think that there might be realization among the institutional holders that Q3 ER, while showed some hiccup in execution, at the same time enhanced the long term view of TM's trajectory. The most telling part, IMO, was a hint about early completion of the GF and potential of using the GF batteries to expand capacity for Model S and Model X. Taken together with Elon's reveal during the Q2 ER call that existing (pre-GF) supply of the batteries is enough for 150K, may be up to 200K cars/year this mean that TM is hinting on potentially exceeding these levels just with Model S and X as early as 2017.
    http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/3473357330x0x791902/d7b8cc04-9c3e-4216-9ce3-7fb4d7e0c00b/Q314%20SHL%20Final.pdf
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My wild guess, the news of building microsatellite network for cheap internet access is very good news piling on for EM, adding to positive sentiment on Tesla.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    TSLA is teasing me - I sold a $255 11/14 covered call a few weeks ago and would like it to expire barely worthless. Hopefully the big boys will keep TSLA under $255 for me today and let it pop upward Monday.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    For what it's worth, that does seem to be the price that is being fought over as we get close to the end. Since +/- 1$ would be fine enough with me for today (I am just happy for the slow steady rise over all) I am hoping for your sake that it closes right at 249.99 :D
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'd prefer 24,999. But we can compromise and go for 270 or so....my 260s for next week are so close to making me some amount of money...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow this is a very nice EOD and EOW push. Close over $260???
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The big boys let me down, but I closed out my covered call position and still kept more than half of the premium I collected. Oh, well - it's a good problem to have since the rest of my TSLA portfolio is happy.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sitting in more cash than I like now. Question is, to buy some puts.

    I bought some weekly 255 calls this am for .14 and sold them for .85 before lunch. They peaked at almost 6.90. I only got 2, I wanted 6. If my order for 6 filled I would have sold half and let the rest ride. A gain is still a gain though. (Oh yea it would have been a 49x return).

    I'm testing some new theories.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think those peaked at 3.78 right before close, I had the same ones :)

    Had 35 contracts at 0.15, sold at 0.6. Great gain, and I'm happy, but man over 3.00 would have been a good start to the weekend!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What's your guy's thoughts on purchasing these? Do you look for dips in the pre-market and soon after opening and decide that the dip is ridiculous and that it will rebound in the next few hours? I was going to try to do this, but decided to just observe (i'm a newbie).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was watching them I saw some going through right before we peaked at 6.84. Unless I was looking at the wrong chain.

    Does anyone have access to see the OHLC option prices for the day?

    I hope to be doing that many contracts some day. I'm just testing some theories right now so my amount are small to see if I can be consistent.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm showing a range of 0.01 - 3.78 for that issue. It's possible there was a bid that high that never got filled.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks, I must have been looking at the next strike lower.

    Man, imagine if you bought when it was .03. I sold right at the peak before lunch, I was afraid of it going back down.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow, I go on vacation and you guys shove the stock back up near 260. What'd I miss? :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm not sure. I'm as puzzled as anyone else over the steady climb back up, given initial media/pundit dissatisfaction over the "D" event, and a steady but unsurprising Q3 report.

    It could be that more market entities are realizing the long-term potential of the company, but the markets are fickle so I'm not really sure of this.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    To those of you who doubted pushing up to 260 before Dec... I say: "HA!" Although I am quite happy it seems to be going a bit faster than I expected this is a nice trend to be back at the ATH when the real positive news is ready to come out :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, now I'm in a deer in the headlights state. In sitting on more cash than I normally do and im not quite sure how to invest it. I bought a few slightly otm weekly puts at market close today. As insurance if we have a pull back next week.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    J'17 LEAPS out next week......hmm.....:wink:

    - - - Updated - - -

    I am still amazed that TSLA went up post ER, and is still going up. I am not complaining as I, like many here, are enjoying seeing their portfolios increase. I, like TheShadows, am sitting on more cash than usual and undergoing 'analysis/paralysis about how to deploy it.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The speed of the rise has caught me a bit surprised, too. I'm nearly all in with shares and leaps, so the rise feels good.

    I did make a small miscalculation, though. I bought three Nov14 calls just before the ER and sold them the day after the ER at 244 for a 28% profit. I figured that the 3Q ER might result in a gain and then a pull-back and wanted to take the profit before it turned into a loss. In the future, I think I'd sell 2 and keep one for gambling that something positive happens. We often see a two week period of moving higher after an ER, and I should have gambled with one of the calls, but I felt I could have lost money with the 3Q ER being so lukewarm in certain areas.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Your planning was good. There have been more times than I can count where I held too long only to end up loosing. I'm working on retraining my mentality to be happy with my gains no matter what they are. I'm trying to take a profit with each option contract I buy. I used to wait for that magic number of 100% gain. Now I'm content taking much smaller gains.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I can assure you the world is not ready for the Tesla Lawnmower: fully electric, dual motors, ultrasonic sensors, completely autonomous, renders your lawn into a delicious and super nutritious green smoothie in under 3.2 seconds. The laser cutting blades with digital control can also put on quite a show for the whole neighborhood to enjoy on warm summer nights. My next lawnmower will definitely be a Tesla, if only I could convince my wife that a self-mowing lawnmower with frickin laser beams for $94,000 is totally worth it.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I just put my $40k deposit down and got sigL #1
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So many times I hear "I need to get" or "I deserve to get" when selling investments. I have always maintained you get what you can get
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not sure about a Tesla lawnmower, we have a Black & Decker Electric Lawnmower and I love it. No more smelly gas, priming the engine, fiddling with the choke. I just unplug it, pull it out of the shed, put the key in silently engage the drive wheeled and go to my starting point.

    Then I push the safety button, pull the bar and the blades whirl to life, pull the drive bar and I'm off. It cuts thicker grass than the old 3.5hp ever could and it easily mows the 1/2 acre hilly lawn. Silently drive it back into the shed with no blades spinning, take the key out and plug the charger in. If I want to transport it I lift the battery out and put it in the trunk then easily lift the mower body into the back of our Tesla.

    It's winterized now, I followed the special instructions of plugging it in.

    Electric is changing the world again.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, we've got one too. It's 4 years old and works fine. A few months ago I was at Lowe's looking at other yard care equipment. I was surprized to see that just about every kind of power tool was available with lithium ion batteries. This was not the case 4 years ago when I was buying yard equipment for our new home. So batteies seem to be replacing lots of small gas engines in this space. As density goes up and price down, I would expect this trend to continue. I think this also has implications for trucks. Trucks that can support keeping lots of electric tools operating, whether battery electric or plug in, should become increasingly popular. So a Tesla truck should sport lots of power plugs and have options for really high capacity batteries, like 200 kWh, not because that is what the truck needs to travel, but to support mobile worksite power needs and for towing.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The nice thing about having lots of plugs on an EV truck is you wouldn't even need 200kwh to power the equipment, because it all uses vastly less energy than the truck itself. Cars use lots of energy. You could probably run your whole house for several days off of one charge of your battery.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Is there any way I can see the Stats for how many users are on TMC (how many accounts)? How many active users in a given time period (lets see if the quiet theory really is true)? How many people signed up over time?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You can see the total membership base here: Member List - Tesla Motors Club - Enthusiasts & Owners Forum
    Only the admins can get usage data. The best others can do is look at the real-time "viewing" data in each thread, but that doesn't let you see easily how many people are reading any thread in the Investors Forum, e.g. Then there's the problem that "viewing" members might simply have walked away for lunch without closing the browser tab. If I were to be serious about such a "quiet period" measure, I'd just use the # of posts.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Gah, The market makers saw that I had bought some weekly calls yesterday and decided to punish me. Time to double down...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That's rough man. I followed my own advice and bought NovWk4 $255 and $260 calls when stock was at 246, also was able to buy some DecWk1 $260 calls at today's lowest price. We'll see, it's a risky play but we've seen this stuff play out so many times now that I'd be kicking myself if I didn't act on bad analysis and market knee-jerk selling.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am pleased by the opportunity to dip into some cheap calls today on reaction to erroneous analysis. Expecting us to resume the regularly scheduled program in short order. Onward and upward.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I started building up my 2017 leaps portfolio today, 1x200, 2x250 and 1x300 :) Good prices in my opinion, and I will buy more if/when the price goes down, or when I have sold some of the 2016 stuff at good prices, as I happened to fill up my margin again with 2016's, in the 220-230's. I'm not too worried ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nice, I joined you with 1 $200 and 3 240s today. Plan on adding more if we continue to head down tomorrow. I suspect a rebound or flat trading though. I have come to believe that the MMs do try to find maximum pain for expiring options and are successful if there is no major news that supersedes their 'power'.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I got my first 2017 today - a $380 (highest strike).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Maybe next week will be better for the 2016's :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Once again, I can strike "sell weekly 250s!" from my to do list :mad:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have been 'stalking' the NAIAS website for hints of what manufacturers will be at this year's show. Sent them an email requesting details this morning. Anyone heard if TM will be there?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Usually they are. Wouldn't be a surprise
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The dealers are scared over here too!

    5c06fb58057cc8b798affc5901d4ac01.jpg

    This today's front page of the Norwegian Financial Times.

    The headline reads: Electric car downturn for car service shops.

    The bubble reads: Less need for service and repairs.

    Underneath it says: A steadily increasing number of electric cars on the roads mean fewer service appointments. Part sales will decline, says market participant.

    Some tid-bits from the article:
    So far in 2014 there have been 15737 BEVs sold in Norway, 12% of all personal car sales.
    Nissan and Volkswagen dealers and repair shops all say that maintenance and service on the LEAF and e-Golf are cheaper for the customer than for similar diesel/petrol cars. There is less revenue for the service departments, especially in sales of parts.

    Guys, 12% of new car sales so far this year! And this with only a few models on the market: Model S, LEAF, e-Golf, e-Up!, Kia Soul EV, Renault Zoe. We are crossing the chasm over here!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Johan, thanks for posting this front page headline. Model 3 will be huge in Norway. Looking forward to the day when BEV sales overtake those of ICE vehicles in your country.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    As Liz Lemon would say...I want to go to there.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What're people thinking? Are we in a lull, stuck in the $250 range until major news or milestones?

    For Q4 I'm thinking P85D sales could boost profits and margins, but Model X may be where the action will really happen, as SUVs typically have wider appeal and bigger margins than sedans.

    "WHERES MY MAC N CHEESE?!!"
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think we have a couple of catalysts coming up in the next few months that will take us to $300+. As the P85D starts to roll out, first deliveries should be very soon, we will hear more about how awesome the car really is, it really shows how far ahead Tesla is and how competetive the BEV is, I don't think the market has baked this into TSLA at all. I think we will see some talk about the insane demand there is for the P85D which I think will grow the wait list even longer (temporarily) even in spite of the increased production rate. The very fast roll out of superchargers and stores will help boost demand too. We might start to hear more about the potential market for energy storage too, this is not something we hear much about, neither from the articles or the analysts. I believe it was part of the speculation that drove TSLA all the way up to $265 nearly a year ago, if that part starts gaining some mainstream attention it could easily add $30-50 to the SP. And then there is the Model X, can't be long before we see the finished car.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Don't be too optimistic although I agree P85D is awesome. The demand for P85D will be limited as it's very expensive. If you order a P85D today in US and you can still get it delivered in December, maybe this theory will hold true for another 2-3 weeks.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Its not really THAT expensive for what it is. The car became a value proposition against the S class, Audi S series, M performance models, All the panamera line, and other high end super/sports cars. Its "cheap" for what it offers.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Actually Elon has talked about the extreme demand for the D already, he thinks 70% of sales will be Ds. They have the shortest delivery time because they are getting production priority. You can't even try a P85D at a shop yet and already the demand is through the roof.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    *cries* why did I get sucked into that link??? The stupidity being reflected in the article and the comments below just hurts my head. I knew there was a good reason I stopped reading the dribble being posted over there!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The P85D is an amazing halo car, but I think the importance of the "D" announcement (commercially) lies with the S85D. Public perception (here in the part of the world where winter involves snow and ice) strongly favors AWD. More than a few New Englanders I've talked to about the Model S have been skeptical about have a big RWD sedan. The S85D addresses that market perception problem for a mere $5k.

    (and, yes, I know that there are lots of arguments that the Model S does fine in snow, etc. Facts here aren't as important as the perception.)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And the economy gets better. Go from a bmw 5xxi to the X-drive and you take a 5 mpg hit and IMO the x-drives have a very heavy feel to the front. I doubt this is the case for the D's even though I have not driven one yet.

    It's hard to find a non AWD premium sedan in our area. I think Elon is right about the 70%, if not a little consertive.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Exactly. My family mostly resides in Massachusetts and Maine. All are 'interested' in a TM product based on my experience (and driving my car). However none will buy without AWD despite anyone's assertions (including mine) that the RWD version, equipped with snow tires, does well in snow. My brother, a 'Maniac' (inside joke for you Maine people Robert) has an X reservation but is considering the 'D' as I write this.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think they will need to bring back the RWD P85. It looks like there is a big gap in their line-up now. The "mere $5k more" only really applies to the S60 or the P85+.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Need to be careful on downside and ability to hit revised production goals. Elon has been talking about how hard it is to scale quality so I would assume that this is an actual issue. May affect confidence of getting to 2016, 2017, 2018,... numbers even if underlying thesis about vehicle superiority and WW demand holds.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What is the thinking on buying a deep ITM LEAP? That is, why a $200 instead of a $300? (Unless you don't think it will get to $300 in 2 years)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Generally less volatility than the $300. I can 'control' the gains (or losses) on the 100 shares/contract and get more leverage than just holding the stock itself while limiting the risk in a situation where I believe we will see stock appreciation over the next two years but not the type of % increase we have over the last year and a half. If I believed the stock would go up another 2-3x the level it is at now I would have bought $300 as the greater leverage would give you a superior return over just holding the stock.

    Long winded explanation for wanting more leverage than stock and less risk (IMO) when buying 200 vs 300 strikes.

    Don't listen to me though as they are many much more experienced investors on this site than I.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I buy out of the money options to gain leverage and speculate on large moves. I buy deep in the money leaps (like strike 110) to "reserve shares". There is almost, at most 1 dollar premium and I can "control" a lot more shares for the same price. The price will move like the share price on average
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I listened to Chickenlittle on a post months ago and have taken a liking to investing some of my money with deep in the money leaps. I've bought quite a few 125s over time. As he says, the premium paid is very little, you don't see a time decay for that reason, and you control more shares than by buying stock. Most of my money is still in shares, but I like the leverage of putting some of my funds into deep i-t-m leaps. For me it's the right compromise between leverage and downside risk.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Enjoy the day off from trading tomorrow, all -- best wishes for a happy and safe holiday.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looks like I'll have a productive day at work for a change!

    Happy Thanksgiving to my American friends!

    For a laugh:
    US Thanksgiving - Canadian Perspective - YouTube
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    FWIW, I'm looking to buy this morning.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    While I believe we may test a lower price, I am with you and added to my J17 $200 LEAPS.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I've been buying the J17s too. But I have to admit, falling under the 200-day has me worried. I want to reclaim that level soon. Very soon.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    + 1
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Did you manage to add to your positions at all, Robert?

    I picked up some Dec 22 calls, as I think this dip is on nothing material.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If the delays get out I fear we could go lower. I sold some 230c weeklies this am (the premium was too high on buying puts) and bought an equal number of 235 calls for tweet protection.

    We broke the 200 day also and these two factors have me concerned.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I picked up a block of shares at $226.50. I'm quite surprised the order went through given the time I placed it. Happy, though, especially with the price already on its way back up.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, I did most of my buying today. I don't think I'll be adding to my position unless we see $160 or so. I really really doubt that number of course.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am buying a smattering of calls and stock. Mostly for Jan and Mar, with the NAIAS possibly providing some fireworks by or on Jan 17.

    Here is the calendar: North American International Auto Show : NAIAS 2015 Show Dates

    Last year, Jerome Gullian made that announcement on Jan 14th and I think that was part of the Industry Preview, which is Jan 14-15 this year.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Uselesslogin, I believe you'll be happy with the decision. I'm planning on buying Tuesday but kinda wish I did it today instead.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    look at the premarket volume, 444 shares doesn't mean much...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    if we fall below 200, im goint to invest again a big chunk. Probably a knock out unlimited with 3 leverage.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Pre-hours trading looks grim, down $4. Buying now feels a bit like trying to catch a falling knife.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, i'm considering taking the rest of my cash and buying puts. That way I will have some downside protection incase the floor drops out. Worse case scenario is that things level off and we stay here.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Robert. Looks like everything is down a bit...by everything I mean a couple other stock I follow..AAPL, BABA. I think the market as a whole will have a red day. Just hoping that TSLA does not have the usual exaggerated one. I may not even open up the trading account page.:scared:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    As usual, sadly. They rehired Reyes but it doesn't seem to have changed their overall lackluster communications strategy.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's a sell the market day today. Don't think this is the bottom.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Today is a better deal so far. Funny I was telling my coworkers I would buy around $205 or so but I couldn't take my own advice. Ah well...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Needs time to get re-oriented with the company.

    I seriously need a Santa rally.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ok I'm in total bear mode.

    The way things look, I think we'll be going below 200. Going by my chart, I think the next safe entry point will be 177.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am up for any rally, regardless of it's name! :wink:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm all in. Never thought we'd see this low again without some cataclysmic event.
    �
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