Thứ Sáu, 28 tháng 10, 2016

Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements part 34

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well we can just duplicate this one. Get it? Hardy har har.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am happy with the plan to export all clones to Mars. I will stay here as I much prefer earth's variations:cool:
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, that is very telling how good that cloning is.

    Who is in charge. us or these self fertilizers?:biggrin:


    I sincerely hope mods kill this discussion by moving it elsewhere, but I just can't resist talking about it.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, I used this morning's pullback to buy back some of my short calls, roll some other short calls forward, and to buy some Aug.19 $250's for $7.15 (and hopefully it stays an all-time low for all of our sakes :) ).
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    August 19 ? August 16th ? :)
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Apparently I trade options so often that the MM have created new categories of options, called "dailies", just for me :wink:
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well apparently I had some options that expired yesterday (previous mistaken post) so I guess I can join you there. To be honest, daily options would make huge $ for the MMs on the highly-traded volatile stocks. I am surprised they haven't started doing them yet. The occasional weeklies I do are stressful enough for me!

    Speaking of that trade I posted earlier, my iron condor crapped all over my Model S!! If TSLA stays below $230, I will have lost $250 per set of contracts (only a few thankfully). :(
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I picked up a few Jul 19 240's near close yesterday. A little wet at the moment, but hopefully we'll spring back before expiry...
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    a6wPBQL_700b_v1.jpg
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Happy 4th of July to all!
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes indeed! Murrica, eff yeah, and such.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Eff works. No to casualties, please.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Happy lie-in day!

    Congratulations on freeing yourselves from repression by the English a century or so before we English managed it ourselves.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So grateful to google, must put more money in it. It helps me understand TMC secret code :wink:

    This one is beyond google capabilities, must be due to swedish accent:confused:
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
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    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Adding to your 'patriotic' theme; http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/mfool/SIG=13apf5ig5/*http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/07/04/the-most-american-made-car-soon-to-be-tesla-motors.aspx?source=eogyholnk0000001

    This describes how TM may become 'the most American car'
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Got it. That's so cute. We have similar things here. We need to work more on mutual understanding of our common language

    aussieway.jpg

    I am so curious about the swedish version
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, it will be really interesting when Teslas become more American made (90% of components) than the Ford F150. Symbolically the truck connects well with strength, self sufficiently, and individualism that form the masculine side of apple pie motherhood American identity. So it will come with a certain level of emotional resistance that Tesla over takes the F150 as the All American vehicle. Basically this is a kin to threatening masculinity among certain segments. To aide these lesser members, it would be helpful for Tesla to build truly intimidating truck.

    On the other hand, what does it matter? Tesla can simply go on building awesome cars and selling them in every corner of the globe.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sorry, not sure I can divulge such things to an un-vetted audience. Sweden is after all the executive branch of "US Intel", so can't tel. :tongue:
    The latter part was simply an invocation of good luck regarding additional fatal accidents, which sadly went unheeded. :crying: :crying:
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Imo your fears are misplaced. These public servant spies are no match for real pro's. The aforementioned Google guys could eat them for breakfast when it comes to personal data collection skills. Rather than fearing that, seeing the upside warms my heart. If I ever forget who I am, all I have to do is disable ad blocker. The shower of ads most accurately reflects my interests and conversations.:wink:

    But hey, we are all free to nurture our favourite fears. My favourite fear is market downturn, the last one cost me a lot of money.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Buying calls this morning...
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I just bought some also.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Added some shares. My feeling is some GF news is about to come out.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I also added some calls this AM (july 25, 250s). I bought them to coincide with the TMC 'Connect' in about 10+ days. I am hoping for some positive catalyst out of that meeting. :wink:
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am doing absolutely nothing at this point. It does seem a few stories on Yahoo finance are attempting to attribute the drop to the "fiery crash." If anyone is trying to push the stock down they are failing miserably today so maybe it is bullish. Either way I'm pretty much doing nothing with my position until the stock is either under $200 or over $300.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Tesla still has to fight through a lot of biased media. I find every major business media outlet to be basically anti-Tesla. You can see it in their selection of "experts" from so called automotive analysts to stock analysts. The set up on Bloomberg and CNBC is often biased from the outset against Tesla. It's frustrating, but Tesla is taking on a lot of entrenched interests. I'm sure a lot of them are also smarting from shorting the stock, either directly themselves or having provided "expert opinion" to clients that turned out wrong.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think it is a combination of bias (who buys their advertising) and getting people to 'click on' the articles. While GM's ignition switch problems have garnered media attention, my opinion is that you can sell more 'clicks' and advertisement if you use inflammatory/attention getting words: Tesla, batteries, accidents, f**es ( yes I still do not like to use the word on this site).

    I am unsure whether it is better to have TM respond to these articles or not. I tend to feel that inaccurate or deliberately misleading WSJ articles should require a TM response.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    WSJ mistake or Distortion?

    Did anyone notice the material error (or was it a planned distortion from a sister company of Fox News?) in the WSJ? The writer cut the number of car F$&@s per year in U.S. by a whopping 66%!


    Per WSJ article July 7th :
    "Car fi^#s are relatively common in the U.S. A study by the U.S. Fi^# Administration said there were about 65,000 car fi^#s a year from 2008-2010, leading to 300 deaths. Collisions were attributed as a factor in 4% of these fi^#s, or roughly 2,600 fi#^s a year..."


    Per FEMA: "From 2008 to 2010, an estimated 194,000 highway
    vehicle fi*^s occurred in the United States each year resulting in an annual average of approximately 300 deaths, ..."


    http://www.usfa.fema.gov/downloads/pdf/statistics/v13i11.pdf
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I would love to hear Noam Chomsky's take on Tesla. He would make a great choice for TMC Connect.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The MS received The International Engine of the Year Award in Green Engine category.
    Judge Carl Cunanan recaps: �The Tesla is making headway where no one has gone before, with a power system that is exhilarating, reliable and proving to be increasingly accepted in today�s world.�
    Tesla finished ahead of BMW (i3):
    �The BMW i3�s two powertrain options are both excellent, but couldn�t match the Model S�s broad support.� ;)
    and the Chevy Volt.
    For further information:
    Tesla Model S Wins International Green Engine Of The Year Award
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    /chuckle @ "Engine"

    Tesla even makes people have to rethink the name of their awards.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    WSJ writer admits error but hasn't corrected it!

    So I emailed the WSJ writer and informed him of his error.
    He replied 2 days ago and said he made a mistake and would correct it!
    It's been 2 days and the article is still Uncorrected. Not surprising.

    Below is a copy of our emails with edit to the F word done for this forum only.

    From: "Ramsey, Michael" <[email�protected]>
    Date: July 8, 2014 at 3:03:34 PM PDT
    To: J
    Subject: Re: Correction needed to your article


    You're correct. I misread this and will correct it


    Sent from my iPhone




    Hi Michael


    Are you aware that your link to FEMA site proves this is incorrect?


    "Car fi$&s are relatively common in the U.S. A study by the U.S. Fi$& Administration said there were about 65,000 car fi$&s a year from 2008-2010, leading to 300 deaths. Collisions were attributed as a factor in 4% of these fi$&s, or roughly 2,600 fi$&s a year out of the U.S. "


    Per FEMA: From 2008 to 2010, an estimated 194,000 highway
    vehicle fi$&s occurred in the United States EACH year resulting in an annual average of approximately 300 deaths,


    http://www.usfa.fema.gov/downloads/pdf/statistics/v13i11.pdf
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    good stuff, tuff, stay after him...email him again and his boss or a chief editor of WSj
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I always CC the chief editor on such "mistakes" with the initial email I send them.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Moderators' Note: Nigel and I will be busy at TMC Connect for the next couple of days so everyone needs to behave! We won't necessarily be paying as much attention to the boards as we might otherwise.

    Thanks
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Have fun! I'm sure we will. :biggrin:
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Party time, who's bringing the keg? :D
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The keg is at TMC Connect. Nigel took it with him!
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, let me take this time to express many angry political and religious viewpoints and let loose my many ad-hominem attacks I have prepared for this! Darnit, where did I put those...
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Don't worry Robert. We are good boys. :cool:
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    We're in Monterey, not on Mars..... :-D

    - - - Updated - - -

    im-not-always-drunk-but-when-i-am-i-think-everyone-else-around-m.jpg
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Another Motley Fool piece of nonsense about competitors for Tesla, but one person posted a response that was a link to a site that is like something you might see Jon Stewart offer. I'm surprised that the link hasn't been posted here before - or if it has, I missed it.

    Yipes! Watch out Tesla! Move over Tesla! | TeslaMondo
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That page is awesome, I think the best was "Walmart unveils concept vehicle" hahaha
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, it already happened. Check out the Videos thread. Hong Kong: Model S initial Signature Model S launch event July 23, 2014
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
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    guest
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    guest
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    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It is exactly one week prior to the TSLA earnings release, and Elon has already been on that show to talk about the Mars subject.

    IMO therefore, the subject will be closer to home stuff, perhaps some SpaceX stuff (as there are plenty of launches to talk about, government contract bidding etc. etc.), but it's also a ripe moment to reveal some Tesla stuff, or allude to stuff that will be revealed in the ER.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm sure nothing new will be revealed. Maybe alluded but I doubt even that. He talked mostly about spacex last time though, and was just introduced as tesla CEO, so I think he will mostly talk about tesla. ESP since I think Colbert just got a tesla. And they were both at that state dinner a while ago.

    But yeah, I think this will just be a normal publicity job.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So is anyone buying options for this earnings release? I am tempted to buy a few lottery tickets because there might be a catalyst in Gigafactory updates. Especially since Panasonic is releasing on the same day and the contractor for project TIGER said there would be more news this week. It just seems like a decent bet to me.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I will probably buy a weekly today/tomorrow as it is possible that TM/Panasonic could release a joint statement on Wednesday that they will each discuss Thursday with the CC. This joint statement has been discussed as a very outside possibility here on TMC.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm thinking of setting up a straddle/strangle, since I have no feeling of which way the stock will move, but I feel that the stock will move in one direction or another.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It just jumped up a few dollars, any news?
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just posted on short term thread, but Nikkei reporting Panasonic has agreed to invest initial 20-30B yen on the GF.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, so there goes my option purchase... Didn't expect anything today but oh well not like I don't already have a position.
    --
    Eh, bought some anyway but at this point will sell before earnings if stock runs up as it is digested and more details come out. Anyway this is total fun money and doesn't amount to anything significant for me.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Greetings guys. I've been super busy with other work and have not had time to babysit trading, but wondering if/how you guys are playing this ER. Anyone buying/selling weekly puts/calls? I'm in LEAPS and medium-term calls at the moment.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I bought 10x 8/1 $200 calls (I did so a few weeks ago and the time value is magically unchanged). They are trading at near zero time premium. I think it is a no-brainer that some de-risking will happen this week or during the conf call. It is stuff we all know, but the varioius pieces will be perceived as falling into place: Panasonic definitely committed, and with yen in the game; Site work on GF, production line increased a bunch in Fremont, Model X on track etc etc. It will be a nice story and it should be a modestly good week for the stock.

    My 2 cents.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Modestly good week...do you think we'd visit the $240 level from four weeks ago again? That spike was on no news...
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You bought $200 calls today? Or did you mean puts? Edit: oh I see, earlier buy. Were those at the money when you bought? Holding them?
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm mostly in LEAPs as well, but I've also set up a strangle: 8/16 232.5 Call + 8/16 222.5 Put. It seems the short-term results (Q2-Q3 deliveries/profit) will be unexciting, and there may or may not be progress on the GF, so I'm trying to play it both ways since I haven't a clue how the market will react.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No, I usually buy in-the-money calls-- less leverage but less premium cost. I can usually find options that are trading with very little premium. I will hold them to Friday, yes. Just a straight up leveraged position figuring that the net result of this week will be positive, not negative. Because my ITM options were "at cost" I just need to be right about the direction.

    Of course, I also have shares and 2016 leaps.

    (just made a note for myself to definitely sell them on Friday though. It would be a big mess for the options to get exercised!)
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I found this link over on a thread at TM site: If you need a laugh to take the stress away from Q2ER anxiety: Sophomoric humor.....NEW CAR - YouTube
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Some tangible Tesla excitement this morning in the ticker. Should be an interesting ride leading up to ER, buckle your seat belts!
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Actually, I am surprised more by the lack of a strong definitive price change either up or down since the opening bell Monday. Initially, once the Panasonic news was announced it appeared we were going to have a strong run up to ER, then BOA chimed in and muted that rise. Seems we will be trading sideways up to ER.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Indeed I thought we would see some more heavy swinging today but we haven't yet. Still plenty of time before ER for things to move though, with the "AJ twins" analysis yet to come, as well as tomorrow's 10am GDP report looming.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hahaha "AJ twins". I just realized how big a TM nerd I am, took my brain less than 2 seconds to parse and resolve who you were referring to. And that included about 2 seconds of wondering if Andrea had a twin.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Geez, ER in 2 days and not even 3 million shares traded yet today. I can't believe how quiet it is here but I guess all the momentum players have left.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well the AJ twins have spoken, and are quite a bit more cautious with their language than I predicted. This could magnify the upside significantly if there is any positive surprise in the ER, I think. But I'm inclined to go with Mr. Jonas this time. Not going to bet the farm on calls this ER, myself.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agreed. since I am heavy on the call side I am looking at 'protective puts' as we speak. Half my Jan 15s are underwater and I was hoping for a little help with ER, but now am not expecting it.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Which is extremely unusual for tsla. Usually down day of (prerelease) and day before.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Tomorrow and Friday will be very interesting. As usual, it comes down to the CC and guidance. If Elon/TM gives very little info about the GFs (locations/partners/partner's contributions), model X and 3, and demand in China it may be a rough time for call options.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, with the confirmation of Panasonic partnership in the Gigafactory, I bought some additional shares this morning in the pre-market.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So I sold my fun options at a very slight profit since I really was just hoping for a continued run after the first hint of a Gigafactory announcement and definitely was planning on selling before they lose the earnings premium. Otherwise I'm going into this release completely neutral. I can't see myself making any big bets on any future earnings releases to be honest.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I sold 1/3 of my shares @ 230,00.

    Still stay long.. and plan to be for years to come. But in case of a dip after ER tonight I have cash at hand to step in again.

    I think there could be some overreaction to even a small NON-GAAP loss, that is to be expected as Tesla is currently investing a lot in growth by opening Sales Offices, SeC's, SuC's, manufacturing upgrades and R&D for RHD, Model X and III. All positives for us being in for the long run, but could trigger a short-term sell.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nice to see Panasonic shareholders also being rewarded for the GF news. PCRFY is up over 3%.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Regarding Panasonic's rumored initial investment of ~$200m in GF... Of course Panasonic isn't going to throw a billion dollars on the GF up front and hope that tesla succeeds with their projected sales volumes. When you think about it, Panasonic is investing in GF the only rational way ANYONE would (i.e. Incrementally). That is: Spend money on cell manufacturing equipment to meet Tesla's near term demand. Then, as demand is validated, continue to invest over the coming six years leading up to the full production capacity of GF in 2020.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The market apparently didn't care at all about the Panasonic agreement. That doesn't seem to bode well for a market response to Tesla's ER.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes it did. This movement is the broader market panicking over hypothetical nothings. Yellen will not relent on keeping rates low as long as employment is in the crapper, but the market is worried she will after GDP report...even though she said she won't.

    "U.S stocks were poised to open sharply lower on Thursday amid mixed corporate earnings, Argentina's default on its debt and as the strong GDP reported Wednesday had investors concerned that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates to curb inflation. "
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This was one of the points that Adam Jonas was making in his note.

    We also had a taste of it earlier, when the speculation about the Sparks, NV GF site was picked up by the media at large, but it did not yield a lasting response - TSLA quickly spiked and then, in short order, went back at the point before the spike...
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think the US markets may rebound after all the European markets close...we will see
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The market doesn't know what the hell it's doing, it's just Afraid of being on it's own again. It's forgotten how to analyze data and make valid medium term economic predictions, so there's no base-knowledge of anything but day trading. So it's just Afraid. It dives because Yellen might raise rates for inflation curb- and concurrently dives because EU might be Deflationary. It's afraid of it's own shadow now, because there's no Fed hand- the training wheels are off and it's trying to balance
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    yep. Reno is still just a rumor until TM confirms it. I'd like to have confirmation today from tesla that Reno is the first GF and ground has been broken.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The "nearsighted lens" is on, and on top of it is also fogging up... Makes any flawed analysis completely invalid...

    In another news, TM released 6.0!

    Current status of Firmware 6.0 ? - Page 4
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    WOW!
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Except if you read the thread it was a false alarm. Maybe someone accidentally put it out there for a second. It could be a foreshadow. Who knows.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That is my theory. I don't want to get any service reps in trouble, but I think that was an accidental slip before announcement this evening. We shall see.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, it was me. I have no idea and the service center has no idea what happened. The system said 6.0 was available, so they installed it, but then it was pulled from the cloud end, and my car wound up with 5.12. Talk about exasperating.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Maybe 6.0 has such great features that they want to mention it on the ER call before saying it's available to everyone today. One can dream :)
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You should have refrained from posting about it, told the service center to go ahead, let the update complete, THEN post about it...
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Without the benefit of hindsight, it was impossible to know they would pull it mid-update...
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    I know, I blew it. :-(
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    True, with that said however... it seems very plausible that Elon is going to mention on the earnings call that "we are going to release version 6.0 to all our customers starting from tomorrow".. and describe how it is a great leap forward and how this differentiates Tesla from others...
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What's everyone doing for this ER? FLuxcap? DaveT? Sleepyhead?
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    DaveT is hosting a google chat tonight.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'll be on with Dave later tonight to discuss tonight's earnings release and conference call. Techmaven should be joining us as well. Not sure about Sleepy. Al, you should join in if you can!
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Do you have a play for thisER?
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'll be at hang-out as well
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I just raised a little bit of cash. I don't have a clue whether the stock is going up or down tomorrow, but I wanted to have some cash on hand incase it is down. I've made a lot since the 200-day, so I took most of that play off the table. No reason to give it back.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm oscillating on my decisions. Probably following Citizen-T's strategy from above, but might buy a tiny amount of lottery ticket calls.

    I will hold all my shares, all my LEAPS, and have an hour to decide about the rest of my calls :).
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I would totally buy some lottery tickets right now, but I'm getting on a plane at 7:30 A.M. tomorrow and will be quite unable to follow the markets or trade for a solid week. So...that's not gonna work.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I closed my weekly calls yesterday, figuring today would be down. Good so far, but now I am not sure. We are forecasting a small negative EPS, non-gaap right? That might end up being the headline.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hasn't Elon said that he expects to remain profitable? Why are we looking for a negative EPS? Maybe they sold some ZEV credits to compensate for high spending?
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The Q1 shareholder letter guided to be marginally profitable in Q2 on a non-GAAP basis.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks, Dave. I was just looking for that. Seriously though, has there been any discussion about ZEV credits? I haven't really been keeping up with the investor boards this quarter. They didn't have any ZEV income last quarter, what are they doing with all those credits?
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No. Zev chatter has gone to zero. We are all taking Elon's advice and not trying to count it, but it is "out there" as a possible surprise. Zev revenue has to resume someday.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Tesla has been holding on to their ZEV credits, and eventually they will start selling them. We'll find out soon if they sold some in Q2.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yep, no ZEV last qtr. So, Its probable they sold some in Q2. Back-to-back qtrs with no ZEV credit income seems unlikely to me.
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This would be an excellent quarter to have sold some OR next if the factory shut down/ramp up does not give them as good a production figure as they would like. Of course, I have been thinking they would sell some credits the last two quarters...so what do I know.
    Getting down to the last minute to pick up a 'weekly' but so far I am standing pat.........good luck everyone......
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    T-15 minutes...

    Michael-Buffer-internet-radio-royalties.jpeg
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I just have no technical read on the stock either. It is just "in the middle" and directionless. I figure there is a 50% chance of nothing much happening since earnings is about on target, GF news we know, deliveries on target... there is no pent-up energy pushing the stock up or down. 50% chance this ER gives it the new direction.

    Estimize consensus:


    - - - Updated - - -

    estimize.PNG
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well I decided against weeklies and bought some August 22nd OTM calls. 6.0 Firmware + GF location + small beat would be lovely, OK Elon and Deepak? :)
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    ir.teslamotors.com refresh, refresh, refresh
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, I panicked and bought some calls and shares. (more than I already had, that is). The news should bend positive.
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