Thứ Sáu, 28 tháng 10, 2016

TSLA Investor Discussions part 4

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Apparently every post that quoted Cali got moved, so I'll repeat my TSLA-related notes:

    Having realized that my limit order was sitting at 26, not 29, I had to re-think. Apparently after buying my last 50 shares, bringing my total to 150, I figured I didn't want any more unless it went WAY down. This morning I re-set my limit to 28 for 50 more shares. If it never hits 28 I'll be happy with my 150 shares, and glad to see the price going back up. But if it does hit 28 I'll be happy to bring my total to 200.

    I think the price will start a nice upward trend once there are enough Model S on the roads for people to become generally aware of them, and once safety and range numbers are in. If the reliability stats are good after a year, that will give it another boost. Of course, my confidence in the quality of the car strongly influences my confidence in the stock. But I still would not put a really large amount of money into it. As I've said before, my REAL "investment" in Tesla was the purchase of my Roadster.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sorry, it was something of a judgement call on that particular posting.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    ^ No problem. I understand.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And so do I and everyone else I expect...but onto TSLA stock stuff.

    I'm in heavy already, but still have a bunch to pile on once the bottom has been hit. I'm still realing from that $37 sell off that seemed to start this whole slide back to the 200 day.

    I am worried that we won't see another big push up until TM has a profitable quarter, marketing dollars are spent on ads to kickstart a frenzy, there is a jounalist event for the launch of the first sig's or a critical review published with rave reviews (i.e. "Better than a M5 and cheaper").

    While I can't wait to see Dragon fly and be super successful, don't think it will move TSLA much if any. Here's to hoping I'm wrong!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks for believing in me. I'll do my best.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    We seriously need a "thanks" style button, but for now, a LOL will do
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I got my 50 shares at 28. And the way it's falling I wonder if I made a mistake not leaving it at 26. Well, I'm now in for all I'm going to put in, so the next point of interest to me is when Model S production ramps up to full. I don't expect the first deliveries to do more than a brief bump, with the real rise coming when the cars are rolling off the line at full speed and all the crash testing and range numbers are in.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Anyone have the slightest clue what is causing this? This has nothing to do with normal trading. Something is up. Dropping 3-4% on nothing, this many times in a short period. It has basically given back the entire years gains. What gives?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was completely content with my 176 shares, but the way that prices are falling, it is becoming very tempting to add to my position. I need to stop paying attention to it, otherwise I may end up buying more.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow, freefall. Time to get some trades ready @ 27
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I can't tell if you guys are serious. I am almost forced to think that something is seriously wrong, but the public isn't being told about it yet. How can you be talking about buying more after these types of ridiculous drops? I'm not selling here. Would be stupid to do so. However, these 4-5% swings on nothing really concern me. Even for Tesla, this is not normal .
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is a volatile, heavily shorted stock. Clearly the attitude has been risk-off since earnings, so the shorts are winning. Not enough buying interest at even these prices to prop it up. Perhaps it had been overbought. You're only looking at the drops and not the fundamentals.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is precisely the time to buy. Or maybe wait for it to drop some more and then buy. In hind sight I should have set my limit order at 27 instead of 28.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My limit order is in, too.


    .... and executed. Nice.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    When do you guys think there will be some relief? This is seriously painful.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Here's an interesting graph from Google Finance, showing TSLA, the DOW, and the NASDAQ for a one-year period. What I think is noteworthy is that all three are right at where they were a year ago, as near as makes no difference. I.e., in the long-term average, TSLA has tracked the major indexes exactly, even though TSLA's swings have been much greater. This makes it look to me as though TSLA's highs in December and April were artificial, and it's now back where it belongs. I bet TSLA goes even lower now, and then comes back up again.

    Screen shot 2012-05-18 at 7.13.04 AM.png
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    A while back you said you had a limit order in at 28. Is that the one that executed, or did you change it to 27 and get that?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I cancelled the 28 earlier this week, thinking 'you really really have enough TSLA in your portfolio' ... put in a limit order of 27, was distracted and took a couple minutes to hit the final submit button, so when I submitted, it executed at 26.85. (yay)

    That gives me a nice even number of shares, not on margin, and like shoes ... I have enough.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ditto, sweet! :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It was barking dogs. Everyone needs barking dogs.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm going to tell you bluntly: DON'T BUY STOCKS. You don't have the personality for it. You might be happier buying bonds, which aren't quoted as frequently, and holding them to maturity. (Not that bonds are a good investment right now; they generally aren't. But I'm talking psychologically. If Tesla issued bonds, they would probably pay a pretty good interest rate; they'd probably have wild price fluctuations; but you wouldn't KNOW about the price fluctuations, so they wouldn't BOTHER you.)

    Stocks are wildly volatile. Even "conservative" stocks are wildly volatile. In the old days, the advice was not to read the quotes daily, or it would drive you mad. Those of us invested in Tesla are fine with the volatility and happy to wait it out; I've estimated the value based on future profits and an expected P/E ratio, and so I'm trying to buy Tesla below its expected value. If the volatility upsets you, stocks are not for you.

    As for me, my buy limit order is actually at a LOWER price than the current ones, and I've been debating whether I should pay a bit more, but I'm hoping for a significantly larger drop; I missed the drop in January because my order wasn't in. :mad:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    agreed. Especially when they earn you a quick $1 per share!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Spot Bonnie's trade here:

    Screen shot 2012-05-18 at 8.05.37 AM.png
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm just realizing that I'm probably already more heavily invested in Tesla than most of you... I already have more than everyone who's mentioned a number of shares. Though if Bonnie accounts for all of the 64K shares that traded at 26.85 she might be a really big investor . :tongue:

    Edit: blast, deliveries start in June? The price is going to go up as soon as deliveries start, I may have to buy at a higher price than I'd hoped.

    Edit: I decided to up my limit order; Tesla's unlikely to drop back to $25. (Sigh.)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Down 30% from it's high on basically good news over the last month. Both my purchases are now underwater, though there's a lot of time for it to recover before I have to purchase.

    I'd grown used to daily multi-% fluctuations, but this is rather depressing mostly because it's completely inexplicable. The stock seems to have absolutely no correlation to what's going on at Tesla other than the occasionally obvious one-day bumps/drops on specific items of news.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not quite 64k. But easily enough to cover my Sig Model X.

    (the dogs got extra treats this morning for getting me the stock below my limit order - first time I've ever managed that)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't think it's been overbought. It's just volatile. The Greece thing spooked the markets, and since it's volatile TSLA went down more than most. At this point I suspect it's just going down on momentum. My bet is that it will rebound, but will probably take some time to get back to its previous level.

    Of course there could be some more shocks coming from Europe... if you can't stand the heat, put your money someplace safe and wait it out.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The smartest ones in my house:

    three amigos.jpg
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Cool. If it goes back up a bit now and never hits 26, I'll be glad I didn't leave my order at 26. As for missing the absolute low, I don't feel too bad about that. I'm not good enough to spot the low. I, too, now have a nice even number (200) and I don't think I'll get any more. My average cost now is almost exactly 28 since I got some way back when it was much lower, and some at 35 and 33.

    We keep telling him/her that, but to no avail. I like bonds, and my portfolio has more bonds than stocks. Nobody gets rich on bonds, but they pay a set coupon for a predictable income (as long as they don't default :crying:). I hold them to maturity, so they're just like a high-interest, uninsured certificate of deposit. I don't even look at their market value since it's irrelevant. I think my bond portfolio is averaging around 5% now. It's a decent return in this environment and I'm satisfied with it.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I see you caught them passing along stock tips.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Spain might be affecting the markets as well, though TSLA seems disproportionate today.

    Nice looking dogs! I'm more of a cat person myself, but ever since I visited my cousin in CA and was numerous times buried in dogs, I've come to like them a lot.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    lol the third dog is a straight-arrow. No insider trading for me!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nice. Unfortunately I didn't get into many bonds before Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) started, and it makes no sense to go into most bonds now.

    The specific high-yield-bond strategy which I was referencing with "if Tesla issued bonds" is to buy bonds from a company which *you* are pretty sure (from investigation and analysis of the company's or municipality's future) is not going to default, but which the *markets* think has a high risk of default (and therefore offers high interest rates). This can be tricky, though, because paying high interest rates can bankrupt an otherwise-profitable company.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I find it almost comical that the market expected Greeks to agree to all the "austerity" measures without a protest vote. So, what will the market do when Greece moves out of Euro ?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I see the markets being in a funk (hmm, FB hasn't really helped) for the next month or more till the Greece situation settles down one way or the other after the election redux in mid-June. Other news - Spanish banks, reduced tech spending (per CSCO) and the Fisker Karma fire NHTSA investigation in Sugar Land, TX - hasn't helped either.

    Worst case, we may be looking at a slow train wreck for a few months; I wouldn't buy in this market at this point hoping for short-term gains for sure. Hold on to your hats!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I would buy Tesla bonds. But mostly I have mutual funds, and bonds recommended by my broker, who has all the analysis of a major brokerage to draw on. A number of bond funds are paying 2 to 3 % now, but Vanguard's High-Yield fund (technically junk bonds, but conservatively chosen) is paying 5.56% today, and their Long-Term Investment Grade fund is paying 4.48%. Of course, bond funds have the disadvantage of reacting to the market in a way you don't need to worry about with individual bonds, so I have both. Again, you won't get rich or finance your Model S purchase by investing in bonds, but they're more stable and reliable than stocks. In stocks you can get rich, or get wiped out.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Speaking of investing in general.... I've come to realize that, in general, if you find a really profitable company with a great future, it's probably privately held. (Why would they share the profits if they don't have to?) The exceptions are capital-intensive companies (like Tesla) which need a lot of investors, and companies where the founders are trying to cash out -- and I don't really think the latter group are good long-term investments.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    FB is hovering around 15 cents above their $38 IPO. I wonder if it will go below $38 today?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That makes a lot of sense. I don't think it's a wise move (selling TSLA to buy Facebook) but it seems like a good explanation for the price move. I would not touch FB. But then, I don't like FB and I'm not on FB.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    At least FB has slightly better P/E ratio. :rolleyes:

    EDIT: I agree selling TSLA to buy FB is nonsensical.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm just dabbling into investing lately and while I don't know much I am proud of my all of 30 shares I got at 27.07 :p
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    ^ Cool.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nope, but only because Morgan Stanley kept it on life support: Morgan Stanley made big bet on Facebook - Yahoo! News

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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I watched at the end of the day as it dropped asymptotically toward $38. It was going between $38 and $38.02 madly in an obvious high-speed trade war. I wouldn't be surprised if they spent BILLIONS trying to prop it up as people jumped ship, realizing it wasn't going to be the easy day trade profit it was assumed to be.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Tuesday or Wednesday now in the middle of the trading week. Feel more concerned about SpaceX's success in general than with Tesla's. Showing the world that EVs can be cool, fun yet practical is one thing; opening up the space frontier in a relatively-affordable, red-tape-less way is a whole other ball game!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't think the SpaceX delay will affect TSLA. Space launches always have delays. NASA was always delaying launches. I'm sure the Russians delay launches. It's in the nature of the beast. Even if (heaven forbid!) the mission failed, I don't think TSLA would be affected. Apparently they had a one-second launch window. It would have been surprising if they had been able to make that.

    I do expect TSLA to continue to be a wild roller-coaster ride. Some time after the S is in full production, I expect it to climb, but I expect that climb to be superimposed over the same wild fluctuations as we see now, with general market forces, or the selling of shares by some big fund, or some bit of news, or nothing at all causing it to go way up and down. But up overall with the success of the S and then the X and then Bluestar (which I suppose they'll end up releasing as the Model B -- for all their engineering genius, they lack imagination in the selection of model names).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    One second launch window! Wow.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Levis Strauss was private then public and went private again.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So was Guitar Center. Bain provided them with a leveraged buyout to go back to private from public, which was in some ways a scam by the majority stockholders who wanted to cash out after jacking up their stock's price through a form of manipulation. They ended up with a $650M loan. The company still owes the full principal, many years later, and from what I've heard, they've also accumulated another $1.3B in debt.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes. One key person sneezing scrubs it. I don't care if it's mostly automated.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If anything, the data acquisition and the timely error trap of the excess pressure in Merlin engine 5 and quick discovery of the root cause (faulty check valve) makes me more confident about Tesla. Certainly SpaceX technology is finding its way into Tesla, through conduit known as Elon Musk.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow! Learn something new every day. To me a Merlin engine is the engine found in Spitfires and other WWII planes. :smile:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looks like the dragon is now due to fly early tomorrow morning. I think that the scrubbed launch, along with the less than stellar facebook IPO, may create a buying opportunity today. I wonder if my $25 "it cant possible go this low" limit order will trip.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You too, huh? That's where my order is set for also. :cool:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Glad I sold a some other up positions and put in a trailing stop on TSLA on Friday. It executed this morning and I'm already up a dollar per share.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good move! I'm starting to feel my $25 limit order is too optimistic.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm thinking that TSLA was down because of lots of profit taking for the FB IPO, but now that's flopped, everyone is jumping back into TSLA.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    OMG califlower...would you look at that, TSLA, a volatile stock is moving up over 5% on no news! Gee willikers, how could that possibly be? You mean stocks can move without news?!!

    Obviously being sarcastic there, but the point is. This stock is a battleground. Lots of shorts...lots of people betting it'll pop as well. Some days investors are risk-on. Some days they're risk off. Such is the nature of the beast. The stock moves...it moves a lot. Get used to it. You don't need news to move a stock. You just need people willing to buy (or sell) a stock at the current price. Obviously good news increases the amount of people wanting to buy. Bad news has the opposite effect. But it's far from the only reason.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And, there's the mantra about investing for the long term. Here's an example using Cali's other favorite stock - AAPL: it was roughly $110 back in late March 2009; if one had invested $40,000 into AAPL back then (ahem.... the deposit that the early Signature reservation holders put in earlier that week ;)), it'd be worth almost exactly 5 times that today - $200K; enough to buy two loaded Model Ss outright!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It was always my opinion that TSLA would be a great long term investment, but before the Model S launches there would be some violent swings. So I've been buying low, selling high, riding the swings. I think that this is the last major dip before the price starts to climb with the successful S launch, so now I'm in it for the long term.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The failed SpaceX flight clearly encourage people to buy Tesla. :tongue:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I would say the delayed spacex flight (failed would imply that it blew up, or crashed into the space station, or any of the other terrible things that could go wrong)

    Either way, I am happy it is on the way back up, even if my overly optimistic limit order never triggered (I am happy with my holdings regardless
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This has been a completely undeserved sale which I have exploited to the fullest to pick up lots of cheap shares, but I wouldn't mind seeing it end. I think I'm done buying.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I completely agree with you about this "undeserved sale", but I'm probably not done buying. Today's close at $28.77 still looks like a bargain to me. I'm just waiting for some additional cash to transfer to my account tomorrow. :smile: Once some cars are delivered and some reviews published the stock may really jump.

    Or not... I thought the news out of the Q1 financial results conference call was all good & look what happened. If the reviews on the delivered cars are all really excellent, who knows how far the stock price could fall!! :tongue:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I find myself obsessively looking at the price, even though I have no intention of buying more shares. Somehow it's almost hypnotic, in a slow-motion sort of way, the way it dips and jumps. But I'm kind of glad to be done trading, now that I have the shares I want.

    I don't think it'll hit 25 or even 26 again. Unless there's news, or something happens, or somebody stubs his pinkie toe...

    The next big event for me, Tesla-related, will be when (I hope) they bring a Model S to Spokane for test drives. I'd love to see and drive the car, just not badly enough to fly to Seattle for.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Would it be inappropriate to ask these questions? (too late)

    How many shares have you accumulated?
    What percent of your portfolio have you vested in TSLA?
    What is your average cost basis?
    How much have you made by selling TSLA short or long since TSLA has been public? How did you do it?

    Could make for interesting discussion while being wildly inappropriate.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well you could drive. There's a Tesla 70 A HPC in Ellensburg. That could get you over the pass to Bellevue. Or don't you have that connector?

    I'd like to see one come to Spokane too.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    350 SHARES. AVG COST APPX 29.40
    Declining other answers
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Model S Crash Test Ratings

    TSLA, please take off along with Falcon and Dragon! :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Okay, my fears are quelled. Model S just got a 5 Star overall Rating :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    But most importantly for the stock "Cars can now be built for sale to public!"

    REVENUE $$$$$$$
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'll laugh when the stock tanks tomorrow. I'll laugh even harder when Cali shows up wondering why the stock is tanking on good news.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Test drive time!?!!!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Spacex in orbit!! Now for tsla stock to follow!!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Stock up by 10% in Europe. Lucky who bought some shares the last few days.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Several problems: The time in Ellensburg would add, what? maybe two hours to the 4 or 5 hour drive, making it 6 or 7 hours, each way, plus an overnight, just to see and drive the S. Even 4 hours is a LONG time driving. 6 or 7 is very hard for me. (I do it for my summer trips up to Canada for hiking, but once there I am there for six weeks, with only a couple of hours getting between hiking lodges, so the payoff for the long drive is much greater.) And as much as I enjoy driving the Roadster, 6 hours alone in the car is hell. If I had a girlfriend who wanted to do it, that would make a big difference. And finally, if someone else happens to be using the HPC in Ellensburg, that could add several hours more to the trip.

    Actually, I'd fly before I'd drive. But I guess I don't want a test drive in an S badly enough to fly to Seattle for it. I flew there for the day when I test-drove the Roadster, but that was because I was serious about buying one if the test-drive was satisfactory. (Which, of course, it was.)

    I really cannot see how SpaceX would affect TSLA stock one way or another. I get it that there is technology sharing, but I don't think the market is sophisticated enough or focused enough to take that into account amid the whims and vagaries of the market.

    I've already posted that I now own 200 shares of TSLA. My average basis is 28.62. I won't say what percentage of my portfolio that is because I don't care to divulge its size, but this is a small amount for me. I've paid as high as 35 and as low as 23.73 with other purchases in between. Clearly, I am not good at spotting highs and lows, which is why I don't trade in individual stock issues unless I have non-investment reasons for wanting a stock. I.e., I just like the company.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This will bump the stock today, I'm sure:

    logo.gif





    Tesla Motors to Begin Customer Deliveries of Model S on June 22nd
    World's First Premium Electric Sedan Ahead of Schedule
    PALO ALTO, CA -- (Marketwire) -- 05/22/12 -- Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) will begin delivering Model S, the world's first premium electric sedan, to customers on June 22nd, 2012. Several customers will receive their cars that day at an invitation-only event at the Tesla Factory in Fremont, California. In its Q1 financial results communicated earlier this month, Tesla announced Model S would begin deliveries ahead of the July timeframe originally communicated.
    "In 2006 our plan was to build an electric sports car followed by an affordable electric sedan, and reduce our dependence on oil," said
    Elon Musk, Tesla Motors CEO and Chief Product Architect. "Delivering Model S is a key part of that plan and represents Tesla's transition to a mass-production automaker and the most compelling car company of the 21st century."
    Model S is the first premium sedan designed from the ground up to take full advantage of electric vehicle architecture. A revolutionary powertrain sits under the floorboard of Model S, creating an ultra-low center of gravity. Paired with an aluminum body engineered for superior handling, Tesla has created a vehicle that will raise the bar for vehicle handling and efficiency while meeting the highest standards for safety.
    Without an internal combustion engine or transmission tunnel, the interior of Model S has more cargo space than any other sedan and includes a second trunk under the hood. Model S seats five adults and two children in optional rear facing seats and accelerates from 0 to 60 mph in as little as 4.4 seconds. The interior features a 17" in-dash touchscreen with internet capabilities, allowing for streaming radio, web browsing and navigation. With the most energy-dense battery pack in the industry and best-in-class aerodynamics, Model S has the longest range of any electric car in the world. Model S comes with three battery pack options to fit the unique needs of different drivers.
    Tesla will be publishing regular updates about the event on June 22nd, as described in this company blog post. Model S test-drive events will begin rolling out to select North American cities in July. Tesla will be ramping up production throughout 2012 and plans to deliver 5,000 vehicles by year end. Reservations for the premium electric sedan currently exceed 10,000. Customers can reserve a Model S at one of Tesla's retail stores or online.
    About Tesla
    Tesla's goal is to accelerate the world's transition to electric mobility. Palo Alto, California based Tesla designs and manufactures EVs and EV powertrain components for partners such as Toyota and Daimler. Tesla has delivered more than 2,250 Roadsters to customers worldwide. Model S, the first premium sedan to be built from the ground up as an electric vehicle, begins deliveries in June 2012.
    Forward-Looking Statements
    Certain statements in this press release, including statements regarding the initial delivery date of Model S, Model S safety, Model S test drives and Model S production in 2012, are "forward-looking statements" that are subject to risks and uncertainties. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations, and as a result of certain risks and uncertainties, actual results may differ materially from those projected. Various important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements, including the risks and uncertainties identified under the sections captioned "Risk Factors" and "MD&A" in Tesla's Form 10-Q filed on May 10, 2012. Tesla disclaims any obligation to update information contained in these forward-looking statements.
    Add to Digg Bookmark with del.icio.us Add to Newsvine

    Press Contact

    Shanna Hendriks

    Tesla Motors

    650-681-5179


    Source: Tesla Motors, Inc.
    Tesla Motors
    3500 Deer Creek Road , Palo Alto, CA 94304
    Service provided by Shareholder.com
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    sigh...wish I had bought even more at sub $28 prices.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I kept debating yesterday and just didn't go for it. I saw that crash testing was complete last night at about 8 and then I couldn't sleep most of the night and kept having weird space x dreams. (probably didn't help that I was watching the Ancient Alien Astronaut Theorists show before bed)
    Of course the stock price was gonna bounce and by the time I managed to get onto slow wifi $30.30 ow.
    oh well this is a pretty exciting day I think... crash testing done, test drives and deliveries soon, ..........

    ....and Scottie will finally rest in Space

    -Scott
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was going to buy at $28 but couldn't afford to until Friday, guess I missed that boat.

    With my current holding I am -13.61% on the price as of now (I bought at $35!), nevermind. It's money I don't need. But keep it up TSLA :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow, it's just shot up to almost 31. I'm glad I bought that last 50 shares at 28. But I don't regret not having bought more. I cannot predict the market, and I could not have known this (or any other given drastic move) would happen. I bet it goes back down a bit now and settles somewhere above where it ended yesterday. But I wouldn't actually bet by selling any of my shares. I guess the crash-test results gave it a boost. It's nowhere near where it was, but it's above my basis. :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    8^D Thank you Bonnie.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm pretty sure that the firm delivery date has at least as large a positive as the crash test results. Frankly, I'm surprised it's only up to $31, especially given the happy mood in the market overall this morning.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Maybe not the best time to buy, since it is up 6%, but I finally bought some shares :) ($30,40)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    How many "shorts" will get burned if it steadily goes up over the next month to say $40? How does that work exactly? I'm wondering if we'll see a squeeze during the run up to shipping on the 22nd.

    I'm really hoping to see the stock hit at least $35 again, but $44 would be better so I could get the Performance version:tongue:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Were the results publicly stated or just on Elon's twitter?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The June 22 delivery date is announced HERE. The crash results were only tweeted.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Given it was at $40 not all that long ago, I'd guess nothing will change there. Once Tesla delivers, all bets are off though. Tesla's press release said "multiple" cars being delivered on 6/22, so this isn't just a single car for show in June, this is serious delivery beginning.

    Between SpaceX and this I'm practically jittery. I wanted so bad to be an astrophysicist when I was a kid, but didn't quite have the mathematical chops (i=i+1 I could do, so I'm a programmer) so the SpaceX flight literally brings tears to my eyes as the kid in me gets excited. Add in the Tesla bit and I really should have skipped the morning caffeine...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    To quote Charlie Sheen...

    Elon-Musk.jpg
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Know how you feel :) Couldn't stay up for the launch at 12:44 am PT but, got goosebumps just watching the launch video early this morning. There are other videos here of the atmosphere at SpaceX after the launch. Elon's a rock star!

    As for TSLA, I think $40-$45 is beckoning. If there are no hiccups (major bugs with the cars), we are looking at well north of that in the next few months.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You are definitely right, you're a programmer. A mathematician would have said i=sqrt(-1). :smile:


    (And an EE major would say I=V/R.)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You are right about that 'i' is the square root of -1. I never used 'i' as an increment in my programming classes in college. Couldn't bring myself to do it.

    I don't really use 'i' as an engineer. But know that I could use it.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Apparently not an electronics engineer. 'i' is my friend. Or 'j' as some call it.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nope mechanical engineer.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    As a power system engineer (dealing with three phases always thus complex numbers) 'i' is my first increment, 'j' is my (-1)^(1/2) and I =V/R. Back on topic I am so glad I sold my up positions and put in the trailing stop, got lots of TSLA at $27.70, having previously bought a lot at $30.05. This is a good day.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The delivery date is not really firm until it happens. Until then, it's just a promise. I believe they'll make it, but that just means I believe Tesla's promises. Have those first cars been built yet? If not, anything could still happen. But crash tests are solid news. Over on Prius Chat there are still people shouting up and down that Tesla will fail. They probably reflect the sentiment in a segment of the market, and that sentiment will hold the price down. Actual delivery of cars to owners (not merely a promised "firm" delivery date) will be significant news. There will still be doubters chanting that it's a low-volume luxury car for tree-huggers, but the market will take note when the assembly line is pumping out cars and regular people are driving them. Another milestone will be when they start paying off the government loan.

    For me it was just i++. So much easier.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was avoiding that to be nice to the non-programmers :wink:

    I'm also a little surprised the stock didn't move much. Then again, the stock movements haven't made any sense to me for a while now.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Welcome to the future. We use for-each loops these days. No 'i' required. =)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Which they said they plan to do when deliveries start.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Actually, weren't they scheduled to do that at the end of 2012? I remember an article being posted about that recently.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Investment community gives Tesla Motors vote of confidence - latimes.com

    I don't think I saw this before (sorry if it was already discussed). Something I thought was interesting in here.

    Those estimates are a good bit below Tesla's targets. Which means that if Tesla is able to meet its targets, Morgan Stanley will be forced to raise their price target. As you may recall, this is the analyst that triggered a massive sell off when he dropped his price target to $44.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Tesla Says It Will Start Repaying U.S. Loans By End Of Year

    "Speaking to Bloomberg, Tesla chief financial officer Deepak Ahuja said 'We are delivering on the milestones, what we're committed to...once we are delivering customer cars, that signifies completion of the project'.
    That suggests that Tesla will begin to repay the loan as soon as the first customer has his or her car, and will be a relief to anyone beginning to worry about the viability of the DoE loans."

    It does seem to be the author's inference instead of an explicit Tesla quote.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This sounds rather ambiguous, it's not a "promise" either. It's simply a specific scheduled date, as opposed to a more vague one so far, and indicates that there are no more major unknowns (even though unexpected delays are always possible, if only for the possibility of an earthquake). The dates in the contracts are more like promises. But if they deliver June 24th instead of June 22nd, then I'd consider that simply a delay, and not a broken promise.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree. I don't think they would have announced the June 22nd date unless they were absolutely sure they could hit it. The first car is probably already done and undergoing close testing.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think year 1 @ 5k should be easy barring no hiccups. Year 2 and beyond greatly depends on demand once the early adopters have been served.

    Thanks guys. It does seem as if Deepak said December though:

    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The most recent rating given by Morgan Stanley has a price target of $44. Assuming they're using these sale's estimates for their price target there's a big upside if Tesla is able to meet their production figures, and even more if Tesla decides that they want to increase productivity over their stated goals.

    I think Tesla will increase production capacity over what their stated production figures are if they get a flood of reservations. If there isnt a spike in reservations I think they'll only produce what they've stated they'll produce.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Tesla has definitely taken a under promise, over deliver approach when it comes to their press releases. I have a lot of confidence in them if they say they're going to do something.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    With that history in mind, would be nice to see DOE loans start to get repaid in late fall as opposed to "repayments to begin in December". Could be another nice little kick in the seat for the stock. ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Elon indicated he thinks advertising will not be necessary the first few years. However they are thinking of passing on battery price reductions when they may occur.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
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