I'm one of those guys too, but I'm not nervous. I have to get realistic and accept that I'll probably have to do a deferral. Possibly even cancel and purchase in a year or two. I'm disappointed, but not giving up on getting a Model S. I want its larger size and probably wouldn't be happy with the Bluestar.
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This might be a bit off topic, but my understanding is that the Model S is/will likely be the safest sedan on the road. Does that matter to any reservation holders? It seems like that would be a big + to buyers/investors.
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Sorry, not crossed here.
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Seems maybe it bottomed out at 25.52 and now slowly climbing again (right now 26.17) , even though the NASDAQ as a whole has continued to dip during the day.
I was quite happy with purchased I made last week that took my cost basis down to below $29 but buy I should have waited... no way I saw this coming. When it drops like this you can always make up reasons in retrospect, but really, did anyone here expect such a deep dip? Anyway, I'm gonna hold my core position now but from buys last week I'm probably a bit overexposed on TSLA so will try to sell some when we get over $31 (next year? )
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1/1/2015
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when we get over $31 (next year? )
It could be next week with the typical volatility of TSLA!
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"Fingers crossed"
OT: FB is almost at $19 now (1/2 of its IPO price of $38). Now if I had FB stock I'd be worried.
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Definitely see a head and shoulder on the weekly chart. Likely to head down to $22 if no tangible good news in the next few days.
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Jon Peterson is feverishly writing his next blog... due out any minute.
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Can you post an image? Thanks!
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Note the Nov/Dec left shoulder, April head and June/July right shoulder... Support at $26 and then $22
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I just see a longer series of bumps. Maybe it's like shapes in the clouds, everyone sees something different.
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Lol - I like your comment. Bumps used to be six months apart, now they're 3 months apart...it's getting bumpier!
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Looks like the fire sale might be coming to a close. I wanted to get in yesterday when it was in the mid-hi 25's, but it took me until this morning to get they money moved around, had to settle for about $27 by the time I was able to get the trade in. I'm long Tesla and its still significantly below my average buy, and I'm happy with the price since I don't expect it to stay around here, but its always a bummer to miss the bottom of the dip.
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TSLA up more than 5% @27.50!!! WTH is causing this?!?!?!
(sorry, couldn't resist. I'm weak I know it.)
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Nice, I hit that one pretty close to the bottom. I think Georges blog might have helped this one (what, they actually delivered 50 cars? But I swear I saw someone on TMC say production is halted to work out major interior issues)! :wink:
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1/1/2015
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Ok, we had some good news from George B and we had a good jobs report today. Everything looks like we hit the bottom, right? For those that bought under $27, maybe it is time to consider selling some August covered calls. Take a look at the August $28, $29 and $30. There is huge volatility in TSLA so, if you are long, you can earn the premium, maybe get called away and lock into some profits. Even if $25.50 was the 'bottom', the volatility could see $26 before we see $30.
The August options expire two weeks from today, so one could earn a good return in that time. Covered calls are good to consider when you are long on a stock ...
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Indeed! Just covered my short on the August 25$ puts, they dropped 50% from where I got in yesterday...
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at +$1.17 ..... and after hours says -$1.17 shortly after
very weird 'reality'
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Interesting, if you look at all automaker stocks, they are all jumping in the 3-5% range. This seems to be more of an industry wide move than a TSLA move.
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A couple of quotes I liked from that article:
On deciding which vehicle to buy between the RAV4EV and the model S:
And the bottom line:
Good news!
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Didn't buy more quite at the bottom of this dip, but darn close. I was hoping for $25. The good news came a little too quickly.
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Or they know something we don't. I think the problem is I've fed them too well. They're not paying attention,.
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I'm back. Seems like it was an interesting week. Trying to catch up on all the threads. Good thing I made money at blackjack cause it looks like I missed another buying opportunity for TSLA. Grats to those that got in this week.
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Wow, couple of 100k trades in last 20 min. Someone must be accumulating...
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Close
I had a buy order at $25.50 - came close but not quite there. Maybe another opportunity soon.
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I paid 26.03 for another large chunk. I can live with that.
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Realized some gains today which paid for yet another option. I've got a big chunk in long term however in hopes that one day we'll see a squeeze.
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And it will bounce around some more. 8^P Tesla's stock is volatile and it will be volatile for some time to come. Crazy trading doesn't go away very easily.
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wow, out of gate this morning 7%, guessing there is news pending...
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Or maybe it's just TSLA's random volatility!
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JP is at it again... he sees TM go bankrupt any time soon....
i'm happy to have gotten some more on august 3rd ; ))
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Don't get greedy guys. If you are completely out of cash and have shares you bought at $26 last week, pat yourself on the back and raise some cash. Either that or don't complain that you can't buy any more shares the next time we are down big.
This is the hard part, the selling on the way up.
As per usual, I'm not talking to you long-term investors.
EDIT: For context TSLA was trading at $30.85 at the time of writing.
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Still no idea why to swing. Reservations are up by about 3% in the last two weeks though.
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+1
If you want to make a little more return and get a higher price, consider selling some August $32 covered calls for ~$0.50 per share. If the options expire in-the-money then this would give you $32.50 per share on August 17. If the stock drops or stays flat then you get the $0.50 per share. Always nice to lock in on profits ...
TSLA trading at $30.18 at the time of writing.
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Where is Califlower? He should be singing TSLA praises today!
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Yeah his one-sidedness is surely a mystery!
Sold half my Aug 28$ calls today for 2.95 (paid 1.40$ for them). I probably would have sold some covered calls here as well, but the average price on my stock is bad...
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A portion of my shares are at $30 (the portion farthest from any hope of the 1-year capital gains rate), so it'll have to hit something near $35 to make it seem like it's worth selling it for short term profit.
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I did say "and have shares you bought at $26 last week". Make sure you sell the right shares, don't fear the tax man, forgoing a good trade just because you don't want to pay the extra tax on it is usually not a good decision making process. Definitely include it in your process, but a reversal in the price of the stock will do a whole lot more damage to you than paying regular income rates on your profits. And you won't have any cash to take advantage of the new lower prices.
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Right, but it's not just the tax man, it's also the cost of the risk of selling when it doesn't drop back down. It's easier to sell on the way up when you bought at the bottom of a trough. It's less obvious to me when you bought part way down and it's now part way up. In the scheme of things, it was at $40 at one point and I bought at $30 which was a price I felt pretty good about at the time.
There's a nebulous sell point that accounts for tax rates and further gain/loss risks. I don't, for example, see much point in selling at $30.01 just because it's a .01 profit. Unless I was somehow convinced the stock was going to drop much lower.
Not sure what this means. Shares aren't tagged in any way are they? If I sold 50 shares today, on my taxes it's my choice to designate which purchase they were related to, right?
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I've learnt from previous experiences with the stock (didn't sell any at $36) so now seold 50% of my stock at 30.50 for some nice profits ($3.50 per share). Already it's turned and is now below 30. Whenever the stock rallies like that in the first hour of trading ON NO NEWS and goes up more than 6-7% I think it's safe to say that taking profit is the thing to do for those of you trading, or like me have a portion of your holdings for trading and a "core" long position.
Helps when trading short-term that in Norway capital gains tax is 28% regardless of short or long term.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
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Yet another reason I may have to move to Norway, I'm like 1/8 Norwegian anyway heh.
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You'd be very welcome! I'm 100% swedish but have lived here the last 6 years. Great country!
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What are 'the right shares' here? If you bought at 26 and 30, are you selling the 30s to have cash on hand but no tax, or the 26s to minimize their future tax? Due to a different stock I have that purchases quarterly - I try to never let that one get negative so I can avoid wash sale rules when the next set buys, I've yet to sell TSLA when I had multiple lots though (but am in that situation now with some at 27,28,30,31)
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Why wouldn't you stay in Sweden, aren't the women prettier there? :smile:
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Things are a little different these days with the IRS rules changes for reporting cost basis:
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And what I've done these days to avoid messing around with adjusting the cost basis reporting is sometimes buy additional shares using a different brokerage account. As it happens, I did just that with TSLA last week when I bought more � in case I wish to sell this newer batch of shares in the short term. My accounts are all set to the default first-in first-out for cost basis reporting.
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Ok, I haven't sold anything since things changed. When I go to sell at this point, will Ameritrade ask me which purchase it was related to?
Very ambitious options programme! Musk is confident!
Newbie question: these 5% of Tesla's share (some 5 million shares) that he will be eligable to buy over 10 years, where will they come from? Newly issued? Bought on the open market?
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
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They will be newly issued.
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Nick Butcher on Elon's new package of stock-option inenctives
They can also buy when the stock is �undervalued� and book these shares in their option program.
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Doubt very much that Tesla will be doing any stock buybacks anytime soon.
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You would have already been asked to confirm your cost basis reporting method for your overall account last year (or maybe it was back in 2011). I know I was asked on each of my brokerages, including with Ameritrade. You can of course go see what it's set to under your Ameritrade account profile settings. It's labeled "Tax Lot ID Methods". I've never tried to see if or how you can set a method for a particular transaction (before settlement). I just let things be with my selected "first-in first-out".
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I haven't sold any stock since 2009, so this will all be new to me....oh boy.
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I'm with you. I'm afraid that if I sell, it'll only go up and I won't be able to afford to buy back in.
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Realistically, why would that happen if there wasn't a big new announcement, or if Tesla has a great quarterly? Now I think we're just seeing wild swings with the markets (i.e. a high beta)
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I'm not saying sell it all. Not even sell a bunch, just take a little off the top. If the stock price never falls back down and you can't buy back in, that is a high-quality problem to have. Nothing to be upset about.
I sold 8% of my shares at $30.85 there when I posted that. If I never get back in, you won't see me sad about that.
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What is the sudden $2/share drop in post-market trading? Then, it just as suddenly pops back up to around the closing price.
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" ... and achieving a gross margin greater than 30% for four consecutive quarters."
w00t?
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And that is why you should never ever ever use a market order, especially in after hours. Always set a limit.
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Wow, that's quite an article ! Off the top of my head, I think Elon has about 25-30m Tesla shares ?
If the share price really does hit, say, $150 within 5 yrs, that kinda makes his stock worth $40 billion or more. Add in Solarcity, Space X and the Tesla Options package etc, and this will put him at the top of the pile for worlds richest people �
I wonder what its going to cost to Terra-form Mars for his new mansion? Or, maybe he'll just move to some island with an extinct volcano and hollow it out !
Off course it could all go horribly wrong, especially if someone invents a good old fashioned matter-transporter or sumthin ..
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Welcome to TSLA the first all electric rollercoaster!
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Bah! Dang it money transfers! I was going to buy 100 shares on Friday. Guess I will wait for another down turn... if there will be one. :/
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I guess this is good news for me as a Norwegian, but this is my first year in the stock market so I still haven't filled my taxes. Just out of curiosity, how are stocks taxed in the US?
7 % today was yet another good day. I think it was interesting to see how Blankenship's blog post (probably) impacted the stock price.
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Maybe we should have a separate day-trader thread or so. I think for most here, messages such as 'sell 8% but keep 92%' are quite confusing, especially when they come on a continuous basis and one loses track of how they are related to each other and the current stock price at 11:37 am and 1.2 seconds versus 28 min earlier. Just my opinion.
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+1 - The traders could use their own thread. They're not investing, they are gambling. ;-)
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Always with the either/or around here. You can regularly buy and sell shares of a company and still be an investor. There has not been a single day since Tesla's IPO that I haven't held a large position in Tesla. When I do sell, it is with the intention of buying even more shares later at lower prices. What is wrong with that? Are people that only shop at Macy's when they are having their One Day Sale gamblers? Are people that decide to sell their rental unit when the retail market is in a bubble gamblers? Is a farmer that decides to sell more corn and store less this month because prices are unusually high right now a gambler? Does the bank ask you when you are cashing your check whether you made that money after a day or 10 years? No.
I am an investor; but I choose to take advantage of the volatility in TSLA (a stock and company that I know extremely well) to grow that investment. My core investment, those shares that I have no intention of selling for a very long time has doubled in size since the IPO. All of those additional shares have come from profits in the portion of my investment that I trade regularly, not new deposits into my account.
We could split the thread if you want. But traders/investors is not the way to split it. First, if everyone left in this thread is truly a long-term investor (whatever that means), then this thread should be almost completely inactive because you shouldn't care about the day-to-day movement in the stock price or what the news of the day is. Second, if breaking news that would affect everyone's investment choices is posted in one thread, everyone that reads the other thread will not see it right away. Worst yet, we'd probably have duplicates of all news in each thread.
Maybe a better separation would be a thread for trading strategies and technical analysis vs. news and general discussion. Whether your trading strategy is to buy today and set a $300 sell limit order then spend the next few years drinking beer in a hammock, or it is to write a computer program that tries to squeeze every single penny out of the volatility, you can chat about it to your heart's desire without creating too much noise here for those that just want to know about market moving news or talk about how stupid they think the shorts are.
Does that sound like a reasonable break-up?
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I agree citizen good to. Keep combined IMO.
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I agree with CT as well. I"m a long term holder who has traded in and out of some of my holdings.
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No one has mentioned the exceptional reviews for the RAV4.
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I agree wit Citizen-T, but I still would like a separate thread that concentrates on long term strategy and company fundementals, per Norbert's suggestion. I prefer to hold stock for years or decades, and I don't want to wade through all the posts about technical stock analysis about what time of day to put in your order.
GSP
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They are a nice validation of Tesla tech, but also pretty much expected, and such a small volume production isn't significant. Unless Toyota orders a bunch more.
Been reading everything I can about it. Seems very interesting because the Toyota people are starting to talk like they might expand the program. Reviews are very positive and Tesla is getting credit for most of it in the media. More brand exposure is definitely a good thing.
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I'm in the same boat, arghh. Between Ally Bank and E*Trade--both are exclusively online businesses--why a "quick" transfer has to take 5 business days, I just don't understand.
What do you consider a down turn, how much would it have to drop for you to buy? Or are you looking for a number of days of subsequent drops? Trying to figure out a strategy.
Btw. Please nobody mess with this thread, it's one of the most visited. I check it every day.
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it's more that there is an increasing amount of messages one cannot understand without knowing that you are operating against the 50-day and 200-day averages and so on.
Finally the stock is going up again after being at its lowest point since more than half a year, and I read "sell" and think "What?", until I remember that you are probably going to buy again in 23 hours.
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I think this misses the point. You say expected but I doubt others expected to read good reviews like "holy crap" .
This cements Tesla as not a "two trick pony" and that they can work well with others. All good for the prospects of the future.
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That's fair. Though, I did end it with something like "Long-term investors I'm not talking to you". Not sure how to make it more clear than that.
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Wow! Who the heck turned up the Volatility on Tesla during the past month? Why aren't we much higher by now?
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You sound very much like another poster here.
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I was not expecting such a reversal already, but I'll take it. Looks like there is resistance at the 50-day. Will have to see how this plays out, but we could retest last week's lows. Maybe I didn't miss the chance after all...
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Going to be patient here. Last time it started dropping, I bought in too early, and kept on buying, and buying, and buying. By the time I got to the 25s, I didn't have a great average cost. Not sure exactly when I am going to try and get in, but definitely not before 27 or lower.
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Absolutely. I made the same mistake.
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Just wondering when that "breakthrough" point will be.. maybe once TSLA reaches 5,000 deliveries, without any issues? Seems like this up and down pattern has been going on for a while. When do you guys predict it will bust through and near some of the price targets we've seen earlier such as $50 by Goldman?
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1/1/2015
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In general (and loosely speaking) technical patterns continue until a news event pushes you in a new direction. For instance, it was news of the production delays that broke us out of the up-trend that was put in place by the first deliveries. It seems GeoregeB's blog and news of Elon's new compensation plan was enough to give us a short-term bump, but not big enough to get us through the resistance at the 50-day.
The only other news on the horizon that I'm aware of is the Supercharger network announcement. Seems like it will have to be a really serious surprise to make something happen here (oh, and not cost a lot of capital, because investors are already nervous about that).
News about improvement in the overall economy, Europe, or more easing by the Fed could set the whole market in Bull mode, which I suspect we would participate in.
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Looking at all the "news" in the past year that has contributed to the volatility, I think the breakthrough will be a quarterly report where profits are realized. The other news (5,000 cars delivered, supercharger, beginning fed loan repayment, etc.) will create more volatility as news has in the past.
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Yeah. Banned after one post. Must have posted something else.
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Or perhaps he had the same IP Address as another poster here
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Yeah you're probably right, I have to remember that what I expect from Tesla is not necessarily the same as what the rest of the world expects.
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Question for all you seasoned day traders here, let's say you decide to get in at $27, would you put a limit order now and let it expire in 60 days, or is that too risky?
Just don't know if I'm going to be able to keep an eye on the stock price all the time, and there are some wild swings, even intraday.
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1/1/2015
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Well, the reason you do a limit order is to avoid risk. That is you'll get it if you're the first in line at $27. Of course, the stock could go lower than $27, but if you've decided that $27 is the price you want to buy in at, there isn't any risk (other than the risk posed by holding the stock at all, which most of us don't think is a risk). Of course, you might put in several orders at different prices: $27, $26, $22 so that if it does go down more you'll get some at each price level.
Thing is, that if you're going to day trade seriously, you need one or more of those real-time stock trackers and you need to watch what happens every minute. What placing a limit order and waiting is, is basically investing. If it just happens that you purchase the stock at $27 and it goes to $35 the next day and you sell it--that isn't day trading (at least it's not day trading as I define it).
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1/1/2015
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The type of trading you do needs to be proportional to the amount of time that you can spend watching the stock, news on the company, and doing analysis. If you do not have and appropriate amount of time or inclination, you should take a more medium term view (at least) rather than setup limit orders and let them ride.
The biggest risk with setting a limit order and letting it sit is that if some news event causes a dramatic change in price, and you didn't happen to be watching that day, someone is going to sell you shares at a much higher price than they are worth. Think back to Jan 13th, TSLA was down 20% at one point. If you weren't watching that day and had a limit order open at only 5% below the former close, you would have got killed. On the other hand, if you knew that you wanted to buy if it was down another 5% and checked that day, you would have seen it down 15 or 20% and could have put in an order at those prices (always, always, always, limit order).
Allow me to suggest an alternative. Set a notification. Most brokerages allow you to set a notification for when the price of a stock reaches X. If you think you want TSLA at $27 have your broker email you when that happens, then you can get to a computer and see what the news is, see what the current price is, and make an informed decision about whether you still want it for that price.
I've got to reiterate. If you can't spend some time on TSLA every day, you should not try to capture the daily volatility. If you can't spend time on TSLA once a week, you shouldn't try to capture weekly volatility. If you can't do your homework on TSLA once a month, in my opinion you shouldn't be invested in it at all, buy an index fund or invest in a mutual fund.
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Another question: how come yahoo finance says that that the after hours price was $30, but the Nasdaq website says that there were no after-hours trades today? I'm fairly "seasoned" and I'm still not quite sure what's going on there.
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CT, thanks! Great suggestions and advice, I'm learning every day.
I bought my shares last December at $30 with the hope to let it sit for a year and watch it grow, then sell at a nice profit to help pay for some options for the Model S that I otherwise couldn't afford. When it was at $39 I felt really good about the strategy. But after last couple of weeks I thought I may have to buy more to lower my average, so that I can still squeeze out a profit come December.
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"D" prints most likely. Probably trades they were reported after hours but happened earlier in the day.
For what it's worth, I think that a closing quote would be appropriate to post on a day with major movements, but perhaps not on a daily basis.
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Approaching resistance again. Maybe news of the first Sig being delivered today will get into the mainstream and give us the extra little bump we need to get into a new range.
Might be wishful thinking though...
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Not sure what to do here.. I know I'll be mad at myself if I get in and it drops significantly again to the $26 range. Then again, I feel like we haven't seen resistance after a rally like this. Usually it just seems to "plummet" back down again. Ahhh.. decisions, decisions.
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Welcome to The Netherlands where capital gains tax is 0%!
Instead we do have a capital tax of 1.2%: you pay 1.2% on your end-of-year balance.
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