1/1/2015
guest I prefer #BroderGate�
1/1/2015
guest She also links to Atlantic Wire:
"Elon Musk's Data Doesn't Back Up His Claims of New York Times Fakery"
Elon Muskt Back Up His Claims of New York Times Fakery - Technology - The Atlantic Wire
Interesting analysis.�
1/1/2015
guest Interestingly, the Atlantic Wire POV was pretty much my take as well. If you reread the original article while looking at the data (and ignore Elon's comments), there is definitely inaccuracies and omissions, but I'm not sure there are the sort of blatant lies that Elon suggests. However, continually adding explanations for things he failed to mention in the first place does the reporter no good. It was clear he was not driving in the careful fashion he leads us to believe in the article, and instead was deliberately attempting to push the envelope while doing the bare minimum to follow the instructions from Tesla to see what would happen, and then writing up the results in a purposefully misleading way.�
1/1/2015
guest
Exactly. This was my impression as well. I dont believe this person was operating in good faith.�
1/1/2015
guest That Tesla Data: What It Says and What It Doesnt - NYTimes.com
Lol he's still going. I read it as. I'm trying to keep my job.�
1/1/2015
guest He may have some good points, if he was in fact following some of the advice from Tesla employees, which it does seem to have been contradictory at times. The idea of slowing down and speeding up to use regen for example was terrible advice, if that's what he was told, as was the advice to leave the last charger after only 28% charge had been added.�
1/1/2015
guest I'm skeptical of that. He has said 2 different things. He has said that Tesla cleared him to leave when he did. But in terms of specific quotes, and his timeline, he points to a discussion with 2 Tesla reps who say that he should be ok if he charges it for an hour. The implication of that quote is that it was made before the charging began. He has not given a quote where he makes it clear that Tesla was aware he was leaving with 32 miles of rated range for a 60 mile trip.�
1/1/2015
guest He makes some good points ... the only problem is its easy to make good points when you are saying whatever helps your cause with no worries about the truth. While I can see some of the points he makes .... if you take his first article with his last one it is very clear he has an agenda. He was not being honest for sure�
1/1/2015
guest Now at the logs show what he was really doing, like driving in circles in a parking lot for Christ sake, he's resorting to unrecorded Tesla instructions. I'm surprised after seeing the proven elements of his misdirection and non truths, clearly showing someone bright enough to know how much not to charge in order to fail, that some on this board lend any possible truth to his claims of Tesla conversations that we know are not consistent with e Tesla people we know.
Time to call it people�
1/1/2015
guest Some people have previously reported Tesla employees with a poor grasp of the technology, and I was never comfortable with Musk's claim that he drove around in circles for half a mile trying to drain the battery since that seems unlikely and there is no GPS track of that, just speculation from the vehicle speed logs.�
1/1/2015
guest Both of those conjectures (NYTimes test being monitored by an employee not familiar with the technology) and 'uncomfortableness' are MUCH more difficult to believe than what you would have to believe from the reporter.
It's not even a close call. He was certainly doing something in Manhattan besides making a concerted effort to test "the Tesla Super charge highway". When the next test shows an easy point A to Point B result, will you attribute the success to more informed employee giving better advice about 'when it says 35 miles you can't go 90'?
Your exactly making my case
Time to call it for what it was
Edit:
Before you or anyone else responds and makes more foolish comments, you might want to check this out (Twitter feeds are linked)
CNN Reproducing NYT Trip | Forums | Tesla Motors
As CNNMoney just finished the exact same trip without even breaking a sweat, not even being careful, lots of juice left, no problems.
I suppose they talked to a different Tesla employee...
The official report
Test drive: DC to Boston in a Tesla Model S - Feb. 15, 2013
Once again... It's time to call it what it was and you all know it...
They actually went further than Times test and had many many miles to spare. Maybe it wasn't as cold today... Hmmm no, that wasn't it.... It's all just so confusing... They must not have talked to any of those confounded Tesla employees that mess with the mind... That must be it. Course that would mean Broden is even dumber than they are. Really, how far are you guys willing let this scammer take you, after all Tesla team has accomplished.
Elon tweet:
Elon: "How can @CNN drive even further than Broder (normal speed & temp) and arrive with range to spare? Test drive: DC to Boston in a Tesla Model S - Feb. 15, 2013�
1/1/2015
guest IMHO, it seems to me the best thing to do is to investigate the claims about the Tesla personnel advising Mr. Broder, investigate the cold weather discharge claims for that particular vehicle, and most certainly offer a re-test with the same vehicle, but maybe work on an improved set of advice before, during and after the test. It just seems like some opportunities might have been missed by less-than-ideal communication. This happens all the time in every company and in any relationship for that matter. The thing I dislike most about the whole thing is the tone/language on both sides. I think it may have been hasty to print accusations (both sides) and I'm hoping Tesla and NYT work it out with each other soon.�
1/1/2015
guest I've been tracking freshly assigned VINs for a while. I believe this is the best method to gauge production rate as the VIN are assigned at a specific time in production and then becomes available to the owner-to-be. Either via direct contact with Tesla or via the app.
Conside these data points:
17/1 3832
31/1 4768
12/2 5492
(5492-3832)/26 days*7 (for a week)=447 car per week for the whole period.
For January: 468 per week
For February: 422 per week
Seems pretty consistent as the two periods have the same number for saturdays+sundays in them. Removing those days as production days get us 452 for the second period instead for 422. Very close.�
1/1/2015
guest Sorry, but I'm still inclined to believe there was some confusion involved. Broder would not be the first individual to lack common sense, and coupled with some bad advice the trip could end up as it did. Of course it could have easily been avoided, but when thousands of people run out of gas on a daily basis with well established technology I don't find it unbelievable the same could happen with new technology that behaves completely differently in colder weather. Did Broder have an agenda and purposely run out of charge? Yes, that is quite possible as well. We'll probably never know the truth.�
1/1/2015
guest Let's try to keep discussions here about the relevance to investing. There's a slew of threads in the News section discussing the ins and outs of the the Broder article and responses.�
1/1/2015
guest Borders explanation about wheel size makes no sense. His display was data that car sends in log. A very stupid man�
1/1/2015
guest When I have time I'll go through and move all the Broder stuff over. In the meantime, people, please stop making more work for me!�
1/1/2015
guest Ack, down to almost $37. Anyone know what's driving the price down today?�
1/1/2015
guest JP back claiming $3M in working capital and spinning the Times stuff into a web of stockholders trap may have something to do with it
Tesla's Obscenely Expensive Cure For Range Anxiety - Seeking Alpha�
1/1/2015
guest i believe its profit taking time for some people, therefore, its declining. Also some people think, that the earnings will be not good enough. Thats why i think...�
1/1/2015
guest I believe there are several issues with his posts
1. People always overspend. His argument that you don't need to buy larger battery is like telling Lexus owners how much cheaper a Chevy is. Personal choice still plays a role. The Chevy will, at least usually,get you to the same point
2. The larger battery pack does perform better
3. Depreciation is not over the guarantee only. The battery is not useless after 8 years. It is just guaranteed for 8 years. Why don't you just depreciate your Lexus over the 3 years since its guarantee runs out in three years
4. He doesn't take into account the lower maintenance costs which are guaranteed by service contract
5. His money estimates are off
6. Oh did I forget to mention his track record already on tesla. Not sterling�
1/1/2015
guest I know you guys aren't going to like this, but it's true: this move is all about the technicals. Stop looking for a reason in the real world, you're going to give yourselves a headache.�
1/1/2015
guest Probably right, but I'm not sure the technicals will be sufficient to drop into $36s This could be a good add time, no?�
1/1/2015
guest I'm always curious on this though. Why today? The stock has mostly been 38+ for a couple weeks.�
1/1/2015
guest True story. It's human nature to try to find a reason that is tangible to us. I came back to post... darnit you were right LOL. I'm holding enough to wait for my short term position to turn into long term.�
1/1/2015
guest It's a better time than yesterday. How's that? I'm holding for $36 personally, but that doesn't mean I'm right.
There was momentum behind it for the past few weeks. We hit our heads on a ceiling at $40. We need to pull back a little and gather up steam to make another run at 40. Remains to be seen whether we break through it or not. At least that is the conceptual version of a much more detailed mathematical argument.�
1/1/2015
guest with markets closed monday- only 2 more shopping days to make adjustments in front of report wednesday after market close;
anybody making adjustments on prediction of what will happen?�
1/1/2015
guest I believe what happened is similar to my situation. Sold half my shares with a stop limit that had been in place at 37.00 then bought march calls strike 36. Only cost 6% of proceeds to buy enough calls to buy back all the stock I sold. NowI get to lock in my profit sit back and even wait till march 15 with no risk. Stock down large no loss other 6% I paid if its up I am still in
i believe many others employing similar strategies�
1/1/2015
guest thanks ppl. That sounds about right and similar in strategy. I don't carry very many shares but use LEAP calls to stay heavy long through thick n thin. Then short term calls (have some mar $40 s) that will trade on the earnings up or down.�
1/1/2015
guest Just trying to get the ball rolling, has anyone done any estimates for Tesla revenue and loss? I'm expecting around 2,700 model S deliveries in Q4 and around 270 million in Model S revenue. anyone one have a detailed analysis? Love to hear it!�
1/1/2015
guest I think they'll have been lucky to have hit the bottom end of the range for Q4 which was ~2,500 units. ~2,750 for 2012.
I am less concerned with that than I am with the cancellation issue. I've been advocating a low cancellation rate hypothesis, but it easily could be higher than I assumed.
This guy finalized on 12/16 for a 40kWh with standard suspension and has a May/June delivery window -
He doesn't say when he reserved, but there are a lot of reports right now of brand new customers finalizing almost immediately, and he calls himself a prospective customer a week ago.
The early part of his date range would be about the time that Tesla is producing it's 10,000th car, while the at the end of the range they will be somewhere nearer to 14,000. So yet again we are faced with data that potentially indicates a fairly high cancellation rate among the original regular production list.
Of course it's a non issue if the reservation rate gets back up, but if it's true then it means that the current reservation rate is already an indicator of production just a few months out. I much prefer an outlook where Tesla has a nice backlog to tide itself through to the point where Model X production begins, but that hypothesis is based mostly on (hopeful) conjecture, while the high cancellation alternative has a growing number of reports which support it.
Data wins. Always.
So if I had to make a bet right now on the conference call, I'd bet on a low end report on 2012 deliveries that came close to, or just surpassed their minimum goal based on the September guidance. Production rate is excellent, quality problems diminishing, supplier issues being resolved, productivity increasing. ~$265 million in revenue for Q4, higher than anticipated costs with the production ramp up. Losses were ugly, but bleeding stopped by mid December.
Might well have dipped a couple of fingers into the piggy bank raised during the October secondary. Gonna guess they have ~$180 million in cash left. Possible unpleasantness with their auditors. No going concern issues, just general "whoa that was close" stuff.
A high cancellation rate (WAG, 50%+) amongst the 11,000 or so U.S. customers who had reserved before the Q3 results. ~7,000ish new U.S. reservations (going from memory, so don't shoot me for not looking it up) in Q4, with awards and the stores being the big drivers of sales.
Reservation list will be knocked down to a typical 2 month wait by the end of Q1 2013. Production rate will be adjusted to new reservations at that point. New store openings will drive additional sales growth, but Tesla will stick to their 20,000 unit guidance for 2013.
No reason for giddy optimism, no indication of impending doom. Nice, middle of the road, status quo report. Possibility of profitability by Q4 of 2013, dependent on increasing gross margins to desired levels, with store openings being key to maintaining sales momentum. Shorts bet that reservation rate will collapse, while the rest of us bet it stay's steady or goes up as more stores open. Stock settles into a trading range between $30-$40.
If cancellation rate turns out to have been low then I'll consider being giddy again
�
1/1/2015
guest Ok my vin 5733. My reserv number 132xx. Do the numbers 250 3rd qtr. suspect 2700 4th qtr 1st week jan factory closed. Calculations over 400 cars a week. Even more interesting 3700 downgrades/cancelled reservation prior to 4th qtr. subtract that from my reservation number then subtract my vin number leaves 3800 missing reservations BUT no builds yet 40 kw, red color, standard suspensions. Anyone with these options have been skipped over. More than explains all the reservations not built out yet. So we know production good. We know low cancellations in reservations. We know about 12000 reservations 4thqtr at least another 4000 so far this qtr (with Europe) despite price increase. We know revenue high with average price of cars they are delivering about 90000 (remember all 85kw about 750 sigs ). The only missing items are guidance and cost. I believe with rapid ramp up costs will be elevated but wii come down. Good luck to longs and fts (fxxx the shorts)�
1/1/2015
guest Look y'all - We can try to read the tea leaves as much as we like but the bottom line is there isn't that much data for us to predict whats going to happen on Wednesday. So lets just enjoy the ride. Longs stay long. Shorts stay short. This way when the Tsunami shows up the longs can clean up. Happy presidents day everyone!�
1/1/2015
guest Won't work, but excellent advice avatar.
Everybody relax. Tesla's going to do great for the longs.
ppl , thanks for that , good numbers to consider
(Nice job @TeslaRoadTrip. Incredible)�
1/1/2015
guest A thought about revenue flow for Tesla and the reservation backlog; building the 85's so heavily throughout Q4 will be good in the short term (cash flow), but in the Q2 or Q3 timeframe, there is going to be pain associated. Or a bad business situation will develop (or of course, both).
We are seeing pretty high reservation #'s getting delivery timeframes at this point, as long as what they finalized are the 85's. That means the remaining reservation backlog is steadily shifting towards the lower end of the revenue mix which leads to uneven/reduced revenue flow in the future. It also means that the 40/std suspension early reservationists are sitting on the sideline, continuing to wait for their car - some for years - while others new to the party reserved and get their cars in the seeming blink of an eye. That can't be healthy for the business if it goes on for too long.
The solution that I see necessary to manage this well comes in a few parts, and is something I will be listening for when Tesla reports:
1) acknowledge this developing situation (or explain why building the 85's and not the 40's won't lead to a future shift to lower ASP's)
2) explain publicly to the 40 /std susp. reservation holders what is happening (cars not yet crash / EPA certified), so they can't be built. The alternative is to shut down the factory (clearly not a realistic option)
3) the only clear follow through is that when the 40 / stds have their certs in place, let everybody know that the 85's are going on the back burner while the 40's and 60's (and std suspensions) get "caught up"; which could mean a full quarter of significantly lower ASP's
4) Ultimately, the ideal state for Tesla is a single global reservation list, with cars built close to in-order, regardless of the geography or configuration. That will provide a more realistic (and less subject to manipulation) quarter to quarter revenue flow and ASP value that will allow investors to focus on delivered units, and less on what those units are.
If there isn't some sort of clear and conscious catch up period for the people who've been waiting a very long time, that has the potential to start translating into ill-will and an increase in cancellations (they'll take my reservation money, but they won't build my car).
I have no personal skin in this game (X reservation), though I like many am an investor. Handling this ASP and revenue flow issue transparently is going to be important to avoid investing shocks in the company. And now that I think about it, it seems easy to see coming.�
1/1/2015
guest Probably doesn't mean anything but I find it interesting that Elon will be on the Jimmy Kimmel show on Thursday just a day after 4th qtr earnings report. A good sign?
It will be interesting to see if he spends more time on the NYT Broder flap, Tesla earnings or SpaceX which has a launch to the ISS next week and expected to have another grasshopper launch shortly.�
1/1/2015
guest 1. at this point it doesnt mean a thing because the 85kwh order will continue to pile up.
2. as the ramp up occurs, it will cost less to make per unit
3. elon stated profits projected at end of 2013.
4. 40 kwh hasn't been epa certified as of yet which means many people haven't finalized their orders and still waiting word.
5. if you've waited this long, there's no reason to wait a little longer, TESLA is doing everything it can.
6. even if you burn through the list of 85s, the average car still cost about $70K after all options are included.�
1/1/2015
guest 1) I agree that over the long haul, and for long term investors such as myself, it won't make a difference. In the short haul though, the affect on revenue of building 40's primarily can be a shock to investors, especially if they haven't been prepared for it. If an 85 has an ASP 20k higher than a 40 on average, and assuming margins are the same for all the cars Tesla builds, they may find themselves building 5 cars to get the revenue and margin they that they get for building 4 today. That may not sound like much, and it's not a long term or permanent problem. But that kind of lumpiness in revenue streams without any warning to the investors is a way to build distrust in one's accounting practice.
If my post reads as a sky-is-falling, or that somehow Tesla is in danger of going bankrupt, then clearly I've written what I intended to say very poorly. I see short term lumpiness in revenue (and therefore margins) coming Tesla's way. It is inevitable if they do the right thing and focus on the 40's and other options that they haven't been able to build. My only point is that when I listen to the earnings call and read the report, I want to see Tesla talking about the short term lumpiness. (Transparency!)
In the end, the only way I see this being a serious negative for the company is if they don't talk about it, and then have to explain what happened (past tense) in the Q1 or Q2 earnings call. That sort of a conversation that could easily be anticipated lowers investor confidence. Much as I love the company and look forward to driving Model X, it will surely lower my confidence in the company as an investment, if for no other reason that this sort of dynamic in the business is what they need to be explaining before it happens so we're all ready for it when it happens.�
1/1/2015
guest I see where you are coming from but you are thinking purely in terms of 100k vs 70k; however, I believe that you are forgetting one very crucial fact about TESLA. We are an electric car company, the reason why the price of 85KwH is more expensive is because the batteries are larger and more expensive to build, while the 40kwh is half the size and is half as expensive to build. The main cost of the vehicle are in the batteries, everything else is relatively cheap and easy to build. Therefore, the cost to build a 40kwh car is much less than the cost to build an 80kwh car. Regardless, if we meet the projected 20,000 delivery rate then we have a great chance of success with a minimum of $1.6 billion in revenue. 25% gross margins of $1.6 billion is smokin good for a startup.�
1/1/2015
guest Don't forget that the battery cells come from Panasonic, not from Tesla itself. So it depends on how the price is calculated. In theory, a 40 kWh battery might only mean that Panasonic makes less money, while for Tesla the difference might be much smaller that one would think.�
1/1/2015
guest Tesla does put all the tiny cells into the battery pack. Panasonic only supplies the small cells. Does anyone know the duration of Panasonic contract or whether terms are yen or dollars? The yen has dropped a lot with the new Japanese gov trying to lower it further. Would be a nice cut in costs to tesla if they can take advantage�
1/1/2015
guest "fluctuations in the value of the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar as our battery cell purchases are currently denominated in yen." according the http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000119312512402293/d413621dex991.htm�
1/1/2015
guest That's a worldwide trend (printing money, devaluation of money) central banks around the world are all doing the same thing.
Has the US Dollar fallen more, less or the same as the yen? Hard to say. Currencies world wide are headed for the crapper...�
1/1/2015
guest Personally I don't believe the percentage of 40kWh cars is that great (less than 15%), so even next quarter when there's more of them they will still be a minority of all cars built. The price difference of standard suspension is small, so I can't imagine that will make any difference to the bottom line. Probably made up for by all the red cars they will be building, which chances are will be mostly higher end cars. I doubt there will be a signicant impact to the bottom line.�
1/1/2015
guest Actully the amount of 40kwh is 8% and 16% for 60kwh, 38% for 85kwh, and 38% for perf. 85kwh. That is from 333 responses. just made a quick survey to figure out how much people are spending on options: Cost of your options, View on Tesla
I'll post results soon�
1/1/2015
guest How many companies have their product tested all day on CNBC? This is amazing press (as long as nothing goes wrong, of course). Stock is showing the reaction today, too.�
1/1/2015
guest Woo hoo. That is great. Yen has dropped more than 10 percent in relation to dollar. Will look good next qtr�
1/1/2015
guest Market seems to really want the stock price up here when Tesla reports. Interesting.�
1/1/2015
guest Don't get too excited... Keep in mind that the markets are at an all time high and this will come crashing down when the market pulls back (if not now then in a month or two)�
1/1/2015
guest A lot more people are aware of TSLA than were aware of it a week or so ago.
I was at a bar with some friends this weekend and we were talking about the Tesla I ordered, and the bartender started going on about the a-hole NYT reporter and what a ***** he was. Pretty funny, and a huge percent of people were definitely on Tesla's side and didn't believe a word about the NYT article. So I'm sure a percentage of them look more into the company, realize earnings are tomorrow, and throw some money in the ring.
It will surely be an interesting week.
�
1/1/2015
guest Here's an interesting bit of why Toyota should buy Tesla. 3 Buyouts That Just Make Sense: Toyota Motor Corporation (ADR) (TM) Buying Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) and More - Insider Monkey�
1/1/2015
guest It's not legally possible. Daimler has first rights.
Definitely an interesting day, scary day but definitely interesting. Place your bets people lol.�
1/1/2015
guest I'd be much more scared to be short -- not because I know what will happen, but because being short is scary on a stock that has this kind of potential. Yes we could have a poor report and be down to $30 tomorrow and it would suck, but if it's great and goes up $10, the train wouldn't stop for quite a while with all the shorts that would need to cover...
�
1/1/2015
guest Musk and friends/family still have controlling interest in TM, and unless they are interested in selling Tesla Motors, no one have got a "rights" to buy company.�
1/1/2015
guest jeez- really missed that 37 opportunity on friday to add some additional LEAPS I was interested in;
shoulda, woulda, coulda�
1/1/2015
guest Agreed... so much for a buying opportunity at $36 prior to the earnings call!�
1/1/2015
guest just seen this article where it says the waiting time for new orders is down to just 30 days!!.
How should we interpret this? Is the ramp up skyrocketining to 1000 / week or did lots of people cancel their reservations??
Tesla Motors (TSLA +5.5%) moves higher as the... - Seeking Alpha�
1/1/2015
guest That information is from this article. Tesla Triumphs but Questions Remain - TheStreet
And from a store employee, so take with a grain of salt.�
1/1/2015
guest
Cancellations might get an emotional reaction in the market but it will not be large enough to cause Tesla to miss its current 2013 sales target. I believe that we will hear that capacity is still sold out. They are increasing their sales centers and the Brand equity has jumped significantly this last week with Brodergate.
A 20,000 car sales target is not a big hurdle to make in 2013. Europe will pull as much demand as the US. Asia is next in line if demand slows domestically. Their powerful execution to date has built in counter measures to ensure they can max out their factory with a make to order system.
I think that they have been running 450 - 470 cars a week based on the data posted here. They are still capacity constrained and we have seen VIN #'s past 6,000. It is a state of the art facility that is just getting its running legs. The trajectory is up from here.
Tesla�s challenge is generating enough cash flow to feed growth. With new service centers, sales centers and superchargers in the capital budget.
Disclosure: Still buying TSLA and will be for the next two weeks.�
1/1/2015
guest Volume over 2mill today�
1/1/2015
guest Don't forget that we still haven't touched European/Asia/British/Australian orders yet, those orders account for over 3,000 model S. US orders are priority right now.
Secondly, I don't think that the arrival came from a trustworthy source, I see Kramers face on there and I know he likes bashing on tesla, the guy is seldomly right about his wild picks anyway.
Thirdly, many people haven't finalized their orders yet, most are waiting till tesla gets the bug issues resolved and after broder incident, they're going to wait a little longer.
Lastly, no one knows about cancellations, it's all speculative at this point and to read into rumors before a cc report is not a good strategy. Remember broder?�
1/1/2015
guest From what I see/know, they are confusing reservation time with "time to configure your S" email. From time to finalize if you selected all options you could get delivery window as low as 30 days. But if you reserve now and select 85kWh with standard suspension, it would probably will take more then 6 month for Tesla to produce that car.�
1/1/2015
guest am curious to know the monthly deliverynumbers till now!
Hope they divulge it tomorrow!�
1/1/2015
guest This must be the largest 1-day jump? 6%? Come on...�
1/1/2015
guest OMG. This sucks! I was so wanting the dip to get some more in before it took off.
It doesn't really suck.. I'm glad tesla is doing well. But, still would like to get in some more. Guess I had better do it now anyway. Going to just keep going up. Will wait for tomorrows report first though.�
1/1/2015
guest Big players coming back to make their play. I'm as totally convinced of that as I was last week when it pulled back after the announcement confusion.
�
1/1/2015
guest When buying stocks its impossible to time the lowest low and sell at the highest high. Count your money, place your bet when you feel comfortable with the price; otherwise you might miss out on the ride if you wait for a specific price. Should the price go down, don't panic, think long term. I believe this stock will get expensive after conference calls. ELON will be appearing on national television on thursday, 1 day after CC on the Jimmy Kimmel show.�
1/1/2015
guest I would love for you to be right, but the only hypothesis that has actual data behind it requires for there to have been a substantial failure of reservation holders to have finalized when given the chance. For whatever reason.
- TSLA Investor Discussions - Page 483
As to Europe, EU car sales had their worst month in ages (like a decade?) in January. (edit: reading the link, its more like "never"; at least since this publication started tracking this in 1990).
- European New Car Sales Reach New Lows | The Truth About Cars
The EU is firmly in an austerity driven recession.
- EU recession deepened at end of last year - The Irish Times - Fri, Feb 15, 2013
Walmart had a class 3 freakout about January sales.
- Wal-Marts freaking out about the economy. Should the rest of us?
The U.S. had negative growth last quarter for the first time since 2009.
- U.S. Growth Halted as Federal Spending Fell in 4th Quarter - NYTimes.com
The Sequester goes into effect next month and will have a substantial negative impact on the U.S. economy.
- As Obama calls for short-term fix to avert sequester, CBO reports falling deficits - Washington Post
Look. There are bright sides, and alternative views on all of these stories. But to say Tesla isn't faced with substantial economic headwinds is to just ignore reality. I have a lot of hope for Tesla this year despite all of this, but just assuming that everything must be going gangbusters in the face of data which indicate it might not be just doesn't make much sense to me.
I'm waiting with breathless anticipation for the conference call, and I'd be tickled pink if they report better than expected forward guidance and a low rate of cancellations on reservations. But despite my earlier arguments with Omer (and others) in favor of a low cancellation rate, I see no evidence of that, while there is a large body of evidence pointing to high cancellations.
Edit2: I should point out that I'd lay odds that the U.S. is in an austerity driven recession even as we speak. Nobody in academia or the government is willing to say that because of the reputational costs of being wrong, but I see no particular reason to conclude that we aren't, or soon will be if the Sequester takes hold.
I'm comfortable being wrong, but it always seems like these things are already well underway by the time you start seeing data like we've been seeing.�
1/1/2015
guest This Thread is Too Big
One of the reasons for creating this new subforum was to let this bloated thread die. It's time! So please move on... nothing to see here...
Before you make a new thread, please scan the other threads in this subforum to see if there is an appropriate place for your message. Make your moderators' lives easier!�
1/1/2015
guest 1Ok evidence. My car completed today vin 573x. My reservation my reservation 132xx. I waited three weeks to finalized after getting email. 3700 known cancellations before 4th qtr. that leaves 3840 reservation unaccounted for. Subtract fro those anyone who ordered either red, standard suspension, 40 kw. These are not yet into production. That accounts for most others. I think it's progress that the shorts have moved on to new arguments.�
1/1/2015
guest I go by VIN (not reservation nr.) If you are VIN 573x and it's about to be shipped, that means they shipped 1,500 cars in the past 14 days? My VIN is 417x. Delivered 10 days. 36,000 a year? Tesla staff told me yesterday they're shipping in 3-6 months.�
1/1/2015
guest Hard to extrapolate over week or two. The person handling my paper work apologized. He is management and doesn't usually do this. "They have everyone out delivering". Of course yours could have been delayed. Everything moving very quickly. I actually requested they hold car to the second week in march. I believe the surprise if there is a surprise is that the ramp up did not stop at 400. Musk doesn't do increments or grow slowly. He buys an enormous factory, more than needed right then, he doesn't go to the moon but rather mars�
1/1/2015
guest You might need to lock this thread if we aren't supposed to post in it any longer.�
1/1/2015
guest [moderator's note: We were hoping to avoid the need to lock it, but I think you're right, @JRP3. Now that there is a whole sub-forum for investment-related discussion, let's end this thread. Please open new threads selectively to discuss particular topics.]�
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