Thứ Sáu, 28 tháng 10, 2016

TSLA Investor Discussions part 33

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I imagine you set a buy order at $33 and it executed at $33.05? Did you SWAG that number? I was looking for $32 based on 200 day moving average.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I just picked up a little bit more at $32.86. I'm happy :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I set a buy order at $33.05, the market price was $33.04 at the time. I effectively wanted it for market price but never ever ever do market orders. And yes, it was an impulse buy. I didn't have a number in mind, it just felt right.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If you're talking about TSLA volume, a lot must have happened in the last two hours. Over 2.1 M volume for the day.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    LOL.. well that was fast. Triggered every sell order I set on Tuesday and took my TSLA position to zero. I had planned on a gradual sell off into what I hoped would be a continued updraft over the next couple of weeks. Instead, my triggers ended up selling off everything over about 8 minutes at around 9:40am ET.

    I have no opinion on how far it'll fall. I always felt that the ~$28 I paid was a fair price, and thats what the big money on WS priced the stock at 2 months ago. In terms of potential it should be much higher, but the price becomes speculative and volatile once you move beyond the near term value of the company.

    I am less concerned ATM about where it'll fall to in the next couple of weeks. TSLA was my mad money that I speculate with. At this point I am concerned with making prudent changes to the 2/3rds of my investments that I normally dont mess with because they are what I am counting on for retirement.

    The potential for Republican brinkmanship and Democratic pushback on the debt ceiling has me feeling that the entire market is looking over exposed at this point. Plus, while Cap Gains are going to 21.2%, taxes on dividends are scheduled to go to the new top rate of 39.2%(!!). I support that (sorta), but it makes me think my big safe investments are about to be overvalued.

    So at this point, I'm dusting off my matress and installing a nice, safe looking, comforter on it because I'm fixin to stuff a lot of money under it until I get clarity on tax policy and some resolution to the potential debt ceiling standoff.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think there are two. Here's one: Solar City IPO - Page 3
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Personally, I think thats a great price 3-6 months from now, which in a rational world means it should be a great price right now.

    My issue is that I am a survivalist type, who literally drives around with a fair sized tool box and 2 cases of water, high density ration bricks and assorted other gear in the truck of my car. Just in case. I'll take a peek outta my bunker in a month or two and if the world still exists I'd probably be happy to pick up TSLA @ ~$33.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I wonder if a lot of people had limit buy orders at $33 that got executed today, like mine did. Looks like the downward trend stopped right at about $33, with the high volume right around that time. As long as it goes back up tomorrow, I'm happy. :biggrin:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sept 25, 2012 - not even 3 months ago: down 9.78%. Today down only 4.68%

    That was when they announced they weren't going to 5000 cars this year. Remember now? :eek:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ah, yea, I actually flipped back to that area in the Google finance stuff, but the resolution of the stats gets poor as you go back so I couldn't tell if that was in one day.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think if you believe in TSLA long term, trading in and out of the stock doesn't buy you much.
    If your buying and selling on small movements, long term you're more likely to be out than in, as you'll probably miss the small upward movements, and it will probably get away from you, longterm.

    If there is a real short squeeze, and it moves $5-10 (or more) in a day or two, you might miss that selling opportunity and really kick yourself for being so shortsighted.

    If TSLA is the next Google or Apple, I'd rather stay in it and it not sweat the smaller daily market movements (%5 is small for TSLA), it's just not worthwhile.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is sort of the holy grail, sought, but not yet found :). Were it to happen, how fast will things move? I've read up on the VW squeeze, but I had a hard time finding detailed info on how the stock moved over the squeeze period.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Here's a pretty good summary, written just a few days after the squeeze: http://www.economist.com/node/12523898
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    W VW short squeeze will not happen with TSLA IMO. That was unique because of the massive single ownership of stock relative to short. With TSLA he short position is a large but less than VW % of e public owned float. As soon as the stock rises during a squeeze the selling will begin to accommodate. It already is Just read the sellers on this board selling at 35 levels. If it gets to 40 many will sell filling the short positions. Short will squeeze and bring the price higher, but no where near the VW example. It's only being used as an template for TSLa because both make cars - that's a mistake, they have no relation to each other. I too believe the squeeze will happen, but not at the VW levels. My guess is it may push and extra 20% out of the stock price. Remember the 'long short' will stay short and not cover believing that EV will simply not survive long term (starkly opposite of anything producing the VW short)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Unless TSLA continues upwards at a slow and steady pace, reservations keep increasing, they must increase production, run a 2nd shift, etc. The shorts are paying interest on the money they are borrowing, eventually they MUST cover. Only a fool would let this get away from them. you see, TSLA might actually be successful, shocker, what would they do with a $40 TSLA, how about $50? How about they announce a dividend, or a split, stranger things have happened.. It will likely not happen until the lower cost 3rd gen model, but it could happen sooner. only a fool would bet against Elon & company long term.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    While Tesla paying a dividend is more than a long way off (I hold out no hope), I also agree that a VW-like short squeeze isn't going to happen. I think there are a number of high-conviction short sellers here that may even try to double down via options should Tesla get to $40 in the next 6 months (which, btw, I personally think is likely). It may take a run above $45 or $50 for the majority of shorts to cover - but some may wait until their brokerage forces them. The two ways to track this are:

    1) Short interest as reported by NASDAQ twice a month.
    2) Price of equivalently priced and dated Puts and Calls. Right now for a given strike price and date, Puts are more expensive than Calls. That's because there are more willing Put buyers than sellers. For instance, today a Jan 2014 Put cost $9.60 while a Jan 2014 Call cost only $5.36. Even at $32 (almost $2 less than the current stock price), the Put costs $1 more than the Call. (Chart here). That's an amazing indication of huge short interest.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ok so I present tesla With fib extensions/retracements since earnings. Key Price levels. It's really been a textbook bull since earnings in terms of pullbacks/advancements.

    Little current twitter chatter thrown in too.

    Hourly Since Earings:
    https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/Screen%20Shot%202012-12-15%20at%202.20.19%20AM.png

    30m Recent:
    https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/Screen%20Shot%202012-12-15%20at%202.20.49%20AM.png

    5m:
    https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/Screen%20Shot%202012-12-15%20at%202.36.25%20AM.png

    Sorry if the volume subgraph is imposing, personal preference.

    Lemme know if there's anything else that anyone thinks is worth tracking down.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    Yup Tesla violates put-call parity. Alot.

    So much so that at a terrible afterhours bid/ask, I can still make an arbitrage trade at market prices.

    https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/Screen%20Shot%202012-12-15%20at%203.11.07%20AM.png

    problem is that put-call parity assumes that the stock can be borrowed for the same interest rate as the risk free rate. and brokers charge alot more then .01% to short tesla shares.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Your comments tell me that you don't actually understand how this strategy works. I wouldn't miss such a move, and in fact I would be even more exposed to it than had I just bought and forgot. That's the whole point.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Few Videos of Elon from the Solar City IPO Day. Mentions Tesla a bit. Can get his fiscal Cliff opinion too.

    So much respect for him, need to find more ways to get Elon capital. Can't wait for Spacex.

    Musk: SolarCity IPO Price Sought Wasn't Aggressive: Video - Bloomberg

    http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000135144

    He steps up in the CNBC one when Rive 'can't hear'.


    Trailing stops work wonders. Limit Trailing Stops are the absolute solution to this problem though.

    Basically a trailing stop is a stop order that adjusts based on the market price. So you could buy the stock here and put a trailing stop in for a 10% decline. Right now, your stop would be about 30.7 If Tesla rose to 40, your stop order would be at 36. Stop orders don't adjust down, only up. If we see some serious spiky action then they can be very useful, but don't normally let you 'time the top'.

    Limit Trailing Stops would solve this problem completely though. The only difference between a limit tailing stop and a trailing stop is a limit trailing stop only gets activated at a certain price. So you set a limit price, once tesla stock reaches it, the trailing stop is activated.

    So this is incredibly useful in capturing the entire 5-10$ move up. So, if you wanted to capture a quick >5 dollar move up, selling out at the top, you can actually place your orders. Buy the stock here, put in a limit trailing stop. Limit price at 40, trailing stop at 2% (will sell 2% from the top). If stock breakouts to 42, your stop price is 41.16. It could collapse back into the 30s, but you'd have sold off at that point. It could peak to 42 then pullback to 41 then move up to 100, but, if we get a move like that, it's generally fairly straight up and straight down. Most effective way of capturing tops i know.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I guess a short squeeze requires two things: that the share price goes up to the point where shorts want/need to cover, and that there are very few who sell at those prices.

    The short squeeze drives the price up only until there are as many sellers as the shorts need to cover.

    It would seem that if there are a lot of day traders who sell at modest price increases, then this will dampen the short squeeze a lot, or even keep it from happening. Plus, the day traders will only make modest gains compared to what they could. Effectively, the day traders will cover for the shorts.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hmm, interesting. So I could set something up where I had limit trailing stops at say, $40, $50, $65, and $80? The theory being if there was a constant rise only the $80 would get hit, but if we had little peaks and valleys on the way up I'd do partial sells at one or more of those intermediate points?

    I'm not sure if I've explained that very well...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agree. This line of reasoning has also caused me to be a little more skeptical about a short squeeze. However I would not rule one out. In the VW scenario about 70% of outstanding shares were directly controlled by porsche which wouldn't sell causing prices to rocket. In the case of TSLA I think its safe to say Elon Musk, Fidelity, Vanguard and Capital Group would be very reluctant to sell as the price goes up in the case of increased demand. They would likely extract their pound of flesh before (if) doing so. These folks account for about 50% of outstanding shares - less than VW but comparable. If a small fraction of retail investors become reluctant to sell it could cause a similar squeeze.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good Action today. Some Resistance at the 38.2% Fib extension but stock closed above it. Target is 34.89, 35.4 short term. Sells are at 36.12 and 37 (78.6 and 100% fib extensions). May see +36 before Friday, only 2 resistances left to go.

    https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/Screen%20Shot%202012-12-17%20at%207.09.40%20PM.png

    Yes. You pick how big a valley has to be for you to sell.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This makes no sense to me. Day traders don't buy and hold. They exit their position at the end of the day. Or at most in a few days.

    So typically day traders have bought the shares they are selling sometime in the past few hours or days.

    I don't see how this helps cover the shorts. Sure, they're selling which helps keep the price down. But they bought very recently which helped drive the price up. Averaged out over say a week, the impact of day traders on pricing should be a wash.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Your response doesn't make sense to me either. It doesn't matter when they bought the stock; a day, a week, or a month ago. The point is that they sell at the time the stock goes up some modest amount, allowing the shorts to buy those stocks at that time (without driving the price up very much, which they would otherwise do, since they are forced to buy, more or less regardless of price).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There is still over 29 million shorts out there (as of 11/30), so in total there wasn't much covering yet. I don't know when they give up, and if they'll give up at about the same time, but I guess a complete profitable quarter would be one of the factors.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The huge difference here is ALL shorts are covered and then some without these entities selling a single share. That was not the case with VW. There is no relationship between TSLA and VW stock short situation. NONE. It's being improperly related because they are both car companies. TSLA may in fact have some short squeeze but it will NEVER match the VW case, has nothing in common with it, should not be used as a comparison. Hundreds of short squeezes occur every day, they are all different in character and severity. My advice is to stay on facts for the TSLA case and stop trying to template against a total unrelated situation.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was just catching up on some bearish articles that have been written lately. There's still plenty of negativity out there on TSLA. At this point it really sounds like they are grasping at straws to me, but the sentiment is as strong as ever (though there are more bulls showing up now).

    This is good, we need someone to take the other side with as much conviction as we have to ensure that the stock keeps rising.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I haven't seen many articles by Peterson lately, though frankly I haven't been looking.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    He's still taking shots at EV's and Tesla, but not a direct assault in the title.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What do you guys think the chances of Tesla being taken over by one of the bigger auto makers after the Gen III vehicle is released? I've been thinking about this and I could see this happening. Elon has stated over and over again that his goal to be the catalyst that makes EVs mainstream and accepted. By the time the Gen II vehicle is out for a couple of years do you think Elon will consider his goal achieved and let somebody else take over the company? Elon doesnt strike me as the type of guy that will stick with something after he's already achieved his goal. I see him selling and moving on to new projects.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    But he also said: "We will not stop until every car on the road is electric."
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ok, I think I see the confusion.

    It's a matter of scale. Day traders can damp the effect of a reasonable number of extra sales. But a not a whole lot of extra sales.

    Now look at the data on short interest. Short interest in TSLA is huge. Almost 30 milion shares. That's 58.9% of the total number of shares available for day-to-day trading (the float). These are ridiculous numbers.

    TSLA trading volume is about 1.5M shares per day. That means that if 10% of the shorts bailed out, the trading volume would be almost 3x normal with 2/3 of the volume being short sellers that are buying. That will move the price up a lot.

    The float on TSLA is about 76 million shares. That's the total number of shares available for day-to-day trading. The rest are locked up. So if the shorts all bailed on the same day and bought shares, 58.9% (according to Yahoo) of the shares that could be sold would have to be sold to meet that demand. That would drive the price through the roof and is why they won't all bail on the same day. Some will close out their positions early, some later and some will hang on to the bitter end.

    I don't know much about the VW short squeeze so I can't compare the two situations. But if Tesla executes well, there will be a short squeeze because the stock will go up as as Tesla demonstrates that:

    - they can sustain manufacturing rates that make the company profitable
    - they can deliver cars at that volume without crippling quality defects
    - there's enough demand to buy as many cars as Tesla plans on making

    Tesla's going to have to demonstrate this over time. Assuming they do it, I don't know that there will be a day or a week that you can point to and say "there was the short squeeze". But the short position in TSLA is so big that unwinding it *will* move the stock price up a fair bit.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I just saw on my browser "TSLA Investor Discussions - Page 404". For a moment there I thought it was indicating an error 404!

    This thread is unbelievably huge.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It seems that TM has built and now delivered north of VIN 3000 so it would seem as if they are either on target or surpassing. Wonder if that is priced into the stock currently?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It is worth noting however that the only VINs in the 2000 range have gone to Canadian cars and these have not been delivered yet and will probably only deliver to the Canadian Sigs this year. Have any US cars been give a VIN in the 2000 range?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    lots have. my guess would be they just reserved enough VINs to get through the canadian signatures and went back to the GP cars after that.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm not sure which "confusion" you believe to be addressing, as I agree with very much of what you are saying, in the first place. When I say "day trader", I include "week trader" and "month trader", anyone who is trying to take advantage of fluctuations around a some (perhaps rising) price level, as opposed to a long term investor who is waiting for either a longer time, or a larger price move to some higher level. The long term investor usually does not expect to buy again, after selling.

    With TSLA, the opinions about whether a short squeeze (of some magnitude which would be worth the name) can occur, seem to be split. And if that is on the edge, then a number of day traders can make the difference.

    I'm not a stock market expert in even a "hobby" way, but if I am looking for a criteria where our views differ, it is probably that I don't see "trading volume" as a constant number. The short squeeze is likely to happen if there will be a development that causes the number of sellers to drastically reduce, while on the buyer side, the shorts will not only want to cover because of that development, but additionally the price increase will be large enough to *force* them to cover, since they cannot afford to take a larger risk.

    In the case of VW (which apparently is an extreme example), the situation occurred because Porsche, by itself, was enough in control of the seller side to keep the shorts from "escaping" through some "leak".
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I went and checked the delivery data spreadsheet to find that you are correct. Didn't notice them being reported. I guess I should have done my research before posting.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The real issue is whether the short interest in the stock is large enough that the extra buying that happens when short sellers unwind can be absorbed by "normal" trading. If the percentage of short-driven buying gets too large, that results in a noticeable increase in demand relative to available supply which causes supply/demand pressure which increases the price.

    This is where stats like the short % of float matters. The larger the number, the harder it is for all the short sellers to unwind their positions without creating supply/demand pressures that will increase the price. You have to unwind the position slowly and gradually otherwise the unwind will drive the price up. Easy to do if it's coordinated and you have the time. Hard to do otherwise.

    The short interest relative to the float is really really high: higher than the 10-15 most highly shorted stocks in the S&P 500. More than 1/2 of the shares that have been sold on the open market are "borrowed" shares: shares sold by short-sellers who didn't own the stock they sold.

    Similarly the daily trading volume is interesting because it gives you an idea of how much stock changes hands on a normal day. Days with much higher than normal trading volumes tend to result in a non-trivial change in price -- the higher volume is usually due to a lot of people interested in getting in or bailing out of the stock. Which results in a supply/demand pressures which moves the stock price.

    If you've got a few minutes, go to Yahoo Finance and get quotes on some of your favorite companies that you think are in real trouble. They click on key statistics and look at the float % and average daily (trading) volume. Unless your losers are a lot worse than my losers :), TSLA's short situation is worse than those.

    Just my opinion but if Tesla continues to execute, the shorts are going to have to bail and they'll move the stock price some non-trivial amount in the process.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes. It will get to 4004.

    Bought 50 of the Jan 38 Calls today for .40 each. Stock's been holding up well since the last pullback and is again testing its uptrend. Going to sell 37 Calls into Strength for >1.00.

    https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/Screen%20Shot%202012-12-19%20at%209.08.37%20PM.png

    I'm a over exposed now but I think that there is enough strength for one more run-up pre-earnings. Then it's all on Elon.

    Sold out my solar city at 11.50 too.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, yes, however this also applies when shorts are simply covering in a normal way.

    My understanding of a "short squeeze" is that this expression refers to what happens when the first, normal, shorts covering causes the price to go up sufficiently to force other shorts to cover as well. This causes the price to go even higher, which forces even more shorts to cover. This spiral leads to a situation where lots of shorts have to cover at the same time.

    So what you describe is a pre-condition, but then additionally it is necessary that modest price increases do not cause immediate profit taking by lots of day traders. The number of those, who will sell when the price increases only modestly, has to be small, as only then will the price increase sufficiently to force the other shorts to cover as well.

    I'd agree that the high percentage of short interest is what makes TSLA a candidate for a short squeeze, in the first place. My understanding is that TSLA is one of the stocks with the highest short interest. But then, for the squeeze to actually happen, there must be an absence of people selling at modest increases already.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Without the fiscal cliff drag (plus jan option expire before earnings call) I'd agree. More money, but march might be worth the price to clear both of those events. Plus market downdraft pressure over next days might provide a lower cost cost for these. That's my watch plan currently
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Do you men in the 2000-2999 range? Or the 2000-2099 range?

    I'm 2301 and will be picking up at the factory on Sunday.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    three negative press releases. question coordinated attack? sounds paranoid but amazing that they all decided today was the day to release this information without new news. i hope tesla released production number and cars produced per week rate at the new year. it will end speculation that helps no one. it will not end negative bashing, too much at stake for that
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was just telling my Dad yesterday to brace for bad press today since we hit a new short-term high. These bears are predictably ruthless.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just read through the articles by JP and Marketwatch. It's really a shame how people get swayed by these articles. These guys seem hellbent on hating the company. I would've commented but there's no point.

    1. First thing that irks me is, they proceed to tell people not to invest but don't hold any positions. Well... Put your money where your mouth is. One can argue that it would present conflict of interest, but I see it as proof of conviction.

    2. Although some of the financials JP pulls are true, they are extremely outdated or are based on ESTIMATES from research reports. The inaccuracies speak for themselves.

    3. A lot of commentators continue to hammer at the point that EV's proposition as clean energy is a smokescreen. It really isn't. Once netted out, it's still cheaper and releases less emissions than your standard ICE.

    4. Many continue to point out that Tesla is the next Fisker or Solyndra. It is not. It has the product and it has the customer. From what I read on threads, the customer service is also there. This is basically where apple was when Steve jobs returned.

    5. They also say that they failed to deliver cars to customers. Last I checked we are on VIN3000? The S curve got delayed by two weeks.

    6. Historically, has the company defied all the naysayers? Yes. I think George B put it best: everything Tesla is doing was at one point impossible. That's why it's so hard.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'd like to hear from our resident accountants.

    I know the numbers that Peterson ended up with don't make sense, but I'm sure I'm not thinking about everything I need to think about to get to the right numbers. Mostly I'm interested in disproving his comment (yet again) that they are going to have to qualify their quarterly report with the "going concern" statement.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's possible. There's a pretty nasty looking head and shoulders pattern forming on both Tesla's short term and longer term charts. Generally a really bad sign, but its happened to Tesla before without disaster.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This might sound crass, but while I actually agree with John on a number of issues related to Tesla (particularly that they were very close to a liquidity problem---previous to the follow-on), at this point I think it is safe to say that he either has a direct or indirect short position, or that he has just latched on and won't let go. This is not to say that TSLA is not hugely overvalued, it's hard to say if they will come close to their current market cap in a year or five years (the important thing is that they prove profits are possible), just that at least in the foreseeable future that things look quite good. I was planning to short Tesla before they did the cap raise, but now that they have cash, demand is strong and growing, and production is moving as planned, the only real concern left on the table that could arise is a debacle of some kind (spontaneously combusting cars etc.). Using the reservation cash as capital is not a great business or accounting practice, but in this situation I think it was probably appropriate and not quite as risky as John argues. Moreover, in terms of the accounting, John seemed to be suggesting that because the reservations are already on the books that revenues will be lower. To clarify, revenues will reflect the full sales prices of the cars including the deposits. So in effect, the deposits will transfer from assets to revenues as the cars are delivered (debit assets credit revenues). Now somebody buy me a drink, all bean counting and no fun makes me a dull boy.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    there is a total disconnect here. running out of cash etc... this company is sure not acting like it. if short of cash and large backlog here in usa, why open up european facility in hopes of selling more there, does that make sense to anyone? have to hire staff etc. they didnt need facility to sell roadsters there, they could have just shipped there while building up cash. i believe situation as stated from outsider without inside information makes no sense. he has understated production number (including the 3rd qtr production number) in the 4th qtr cars production and still understated it. i do not believe the execs are suicidal. they are now bringing in receipts and taking advantage of the situation. have considered why they dont silence people by announcing production number but then they will just pick up and run with other misrepresentations. i believe the numbers will be there, just hope we dont have to wait till feb to hear the production rate.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Is it reasonable to believe that JP is correct in that they have already burned through the last offering of $200+ million and will need another in 2013? Where is his error? Can someone make sense of this? Can we say with confidence that, with any sort of major event or issue withstanding, they wont need to raise more capital?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    While Tesla did decide to make another capital raise, they did so under much better conditions, in the context of much better numbers, and later, than JP predicted some time ago as inevitable.

    In so far as I remember from NigelM's posts, JP's comments about reservation payments don't correctly reflect that they are accounted for as "liabilities", before delivery. Perhaps you understand better than me what this actually means. ;)

    The reservation payments are handled according or each state's laws/regulations (which means, I think, differently in some states). His talk about himself having to go to jail seems smear level.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    He has no more information than you do. Don't believe everything people speculate about. His credential and bias well known. He has disputed the value of lithium batteries (self serving then given his affiliation at the time). If its in his interest now why would you believe he won't distort to his advantage
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm especially confused by how he can say they will have an operating loss of 85 million for Q4, but they will have "burned through" over 200 million. You will notice in the article he just states that the 2.9 million number comes from the JP Morgen report, but this is the same report that gave a price target of $37, so something (as usual with Peterson) is fishy.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    One thing I find interesting reading the extreme bear articles is the inability to recognize the concept of rate of change, or how today's state at Tesla is precisely what every startup transitioning into a going concern goes through. It's as if the analysis amounts to "the state on <date> is <x>; extended for a very short time, and assuming nothing changes, Tesla is out of business any second now". Of course, Tesla is changing at an astounding rate right now.

    When you look at the rate of manufacturing, that began accelerating early this quarter in a major way, and to a level that will produce profitability when extended into the future (though of course, manufacturing level was at a very unprofitable level until recently, so there's still risk around maintaining the rate).

    Similar observation about deliveries (and revenue recognition!). It's been accelerating right along with the manufacturing (maybe a week or 3 lag). Can Tesla successfully deliver 20k+ cars a year, to go along with the manufacturing rate? Clearly they will need to prove they can, but really - if that's the only problem (they make 'em, but can't deliver?) - they'll figure that out.

    Reservation rate - same kind of story, though here, the reservation rate in the US has been outstanding all on its own for more than a month. I use the reservation rate as a leading indicator, and a month or more at this 60's / 70's daily rate for the US is outstanding. That suggests to me that manufacturing 20k/year won't do it, and its not hard to see a need for more like 30-40k/year in the next 1-2 quarters (effectively immediately) as Europe gets seriously opened. It will also be an early indicator that a particular Tesla model is achieving saturation or otherwise losing its appeal.


    The business today is effectively unrecognizable from the business of 3 or 6 months ago. Three or 6 months ago, Tesla was an R&D concern. Today, Tesla is a manufacturer. Will they be profitable in Q4? Of course not, and nobody in or out of the company has suggested that they will.

    Will they have ~50M of net revenue to report in Q4 (taking the past, and extending it into the future as if nothing has changed)? So clearly NO, it's silly. Admittedly a high estimate, but 2,000 cars at $75,000 per car is $150,000,000 of revenue. That's a tripling in QoQ revenue. That won't happen again in Q1, but zowie - triple QoQ revenue is different at least!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's well known that SpaceX is Mr. Musk's 'baby'. That's the one he'll go to his grave looking after. It's also well known that he's not in it for the money. At some point he will no longer 'run' Tesla; definitely not before Gen III. How long after Gen III probably depends on where SpaceX is at with their mission to Mars, as well how well Gen III is received by the market and what else is on the drawing board for Tesla at that time. I think it's a safe guess that we'll have Mr. Musk at the helm for at least 5 more years.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    It's (probably) due to lower reservation payments per car on non signature orders. And the delivered most of the signatures this quarter.

    This has made news before.

    "Bank of America/Merrill Lynch forecast 2012 Model S deliveries of 5,000 units. Reservation deposits for the first 2,000 Model S Signature editions were $40,000 each for a total of $80 million. Reservation deposits for the next 3,000 standard Model S versions were $5,000 each for a total of $15 million more. Overall, the total Merrill Lynch error was $95 million. Morgan Stanley was more conservative at 2,230 Model S deliveries. So its error was $81 million."
    Why Analysts Are Wrong About Tesla: Pro

    Not a sign of weakness.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Peterson makes some dubious calculations using made up numbers. The 2000 signatures in the cnbc article, or 1500 signatures in his most recent article. Foolishly, someone like me will point out his false figures and shoddy math, to have him respond "it doesn't matter Tesla is still burning cash!" Rinse and repeat. He has proclaimed Tesla wouldn't exist after September, then he pushed it back to the end of the year. He will always be a naysayer just because of his previous interest in lead-acid batteries.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    maybe he uses the Mayan calendar ;-)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Please correct me if I`m wrong, but there`s about 1200 US and Canadian sigs? And they probably pay somewhere between 90-110.000 for their cars?

    I assume all of them will have their cars in 2012. So that`s about 120 million in revenue?
    And then there`s about 1800 ordinary cars delivered in 2012, at an average of about 85,000?
    That`s another 153 million in revenues. And except from 250 delivered in Q3, all the revenue comes from Q4?

    So let`s say Tesla will make about 270 million in revenue from the Model S in Q4, maybe 10-20 from Rav4, Merc B, Roadsters and other development? So Tesla will probably have somewhere between 250-300 million in revenues in Q4, but definitively still no profits until Q1 2013. Either way, maybe John Petersen should take into account that revenues are almost 8 times higher in Q4 2012 than Q4 2011. Love playing these numbers games :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Today shinal claims investing in tesla is the same as buying fraudulent mortgages. I agree with the revenue issue but he also left out the model x reservations. Over 2000 a month ago and over 200 signatures. That would be additional 18 million revenue. We all need to book mark his articles and when he posts in future point out his past record
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And please, comparing TSLA to Groupon! Both in the red yes. But while Groupon had an idea and a website (and some servers), Tesla has a fully tooled factory (hughe) AND is the world leader in EV tech - ideas and tech that's patented and owned (Groupon's concept has been extensively copied) AND Tesla has customers lined up!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ok, I see what you're saying. You're going by the really strict definition of a short squeeze. Mine is looser. Both are in common use.

    I agree that we are not likely to see an extreme short squeeze where a large % of the existing short-sellers are forced to bail out right away. I think for that to happen, the stock would have to jump a lot (probably >30% or even >50% in a few days).

    But I do think that as the stock price continues to climb, we'll see people closing out their short positions. The short interest is so high that I think that will move the price up some (5-15%?) especially since I suspect most of the short-sellers are hedge funds and other institutions that take larger positions than individual investors. It will also reduce the supply of stock available in the open market by a non-trivial amount as well. Not sure what that'll do (probably increase volatility but who knows?).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It`s just like John Petersens consistent bashing of Teslas reservation numbers. He repetedly states that it took Tesla three years to build a reservation base of 13.000 people, and continues by stating that the queue will be emptied after a couple of quarters.
    He ignores the fact that reservations have been steadily increasing from about 30 a day in june, to 60-70 now (peaking at about 86 in beginning of december, but at the moment it seems as if people are getting ready to celebrate christmas instead of ordering a Model S :)

    Furthermore he ignores that a continous reservation flow well above manufacturing pace actually results in the queue increasing, not decreasing. Why Tesla would run out of orders in 6 months is beyond me, but seems logical to John Petersen.....
    It`s a bit irritating that he is so smart, while at the same time acts so dumb just to bash Tesla.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    premarket is down $1, should be an interesting day
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    On 100 vol...-_-
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    ha! how is that possible?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What are you looking at? Google finance? Google seemed messed up this morning - at 9:37 it was still showing market closed for me. My brokerage account shows correct volume though.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looks down about .25 at 6:51 against a falling general market.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Our government is going to totally mess up our stock market. Due to the potential of tax increase on capital gains, investors are better off selling holdings this year, taking gains at the lower rate, and then buying them back, extablishing a new cost basis for thier stocks. Stocks that would normally be strong will be sold to save a few dollars in taxes. This is in addition to the normal year end tax loss selling.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, now it's back up to $34.05 (Nasdaq's site).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Actually watch out with that strategy I cannot remember the exact period of time but you have to wait 30 or 60 days to buy back to have it count for taxes. Of course during that time you will miss the 4th qtr report
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is what they agreed upon a year ago. Not very well thought out? No surprise, is there? The next deal they make will also be poorly thought out.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I believe it is different for long term and short term on the buy back. Not sure on the specifics though.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I created a spreadsheet to see what the difference is. It seems to depend on the situation if that maneuver actually saves you money. I understand the idea of thinking you will save tax for the gains which have occurred up to the tax increase. But actually, when buying back, you will have less money to invest (after paying the taxes), and then for the gains in the second time period, you still have to pay taxes. So even if you always pay less taxes, you might sometimes also have less money at the end.

    It is easy to create a small spreadsheet and run the numbers for various scenarios, easier than to explain in detail.

    What I found so far (I might have made a mistake, I just spent 15 min on it) is that if the tax% is the same or larger in the second time period, then you save money if the share price increase is relatively small, but you lose money if the share price increase is relatively large. Would be good if someone could double-check this calculation, or already knows the answer.

    EDIT: Example: Let's say you bought shares at $25, and you sell and re-buy at $34 while the tax is 15%. The tax increases to 20% when you sell the second time. According to my current quick version 0.1 spreadsheet, if you finally sell at $56, this maneuver will have improved your profits by a small amount. But if you finally sell at $57 (or above), you will actually lose money, and it is better to just keep the shares for the whole time.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The wash rule only applies to sales at a loss, and the waiting time is 31 days. If you are selling at a profit, there is no waiting period.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    They already have.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    New number: As of 12/14/2012, short interest was still 29,091,311, not very far from its peak.

    In hindsight, this is always good to know, as it means the share price remained at its current level *in spite of* that many shorts.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That was essentially the basis for my cashing out of TSLA @$35. Heck, I did a major rebalance of everything I own.

    Except for the Republicans failing to pass their middle class tax cut (and thus confirming that their conference is even more FUBAR than I feared) everything seems to be playing out as expected. We are now flirting with 90% probabilities that we are going over the cliff with no mitigation. But its also clear that whatever (if any) small fixes are attempted, whether its the middle class tax cut, a modification of the sequester, or both, it is now almost inevitable that we are facing a debt ceiling fight in February or March just like the one we saw in July 2011.

    Only this time I *think* I believe Obama when he says he wont negotiate. I don't know what will happen with those discussions, or whether someone will back away from the brink, but even talking about it tanked the economy last time around, and this time it will happen while the economy is experiencing a severe fiscal drag. If we breach the debt ceiling we will be deep in La La Land and facing a self imposed crisis that has the potential to make 2008 look like a minor blip.

    It is beyond bizarre to me that the only credible path forward that I see, other than a balanced agreement like the ones that have already failed to come together, or total capitulation by one side or the other, is to mint trillion dollar platinum coins and purchase debt back from the Fed to allow the government to issue new debt without breaching the debt ceiling.

    That is just silly. But I can easily see that happening in March if a deal doesn't come together which causes the Republicans to withdraw their debt ceiling threat. And as of right now, the demands that they are making have united the Dems in opposition even, apparently, in the face of a potential default.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    In my case I bought at ~$28, sold at $35 and have not repurchased because I am making a bet that the market potentially faces a period of tremendous turmoil in the context of congressional dysfunction and a fiscally induced recession and potential for a politically induced default on U.S. obligations.

    Under current law, capital gains in 2013 will be 20% + a 3.8% surtax for a total rate of 23.8%.

    I'm not expecting my strategy to be a money maker for me unless these risks manifest themselves, but I think that I am ahead at current prices even if capital gains stay at 15% ie. (35-28)*0.15=1.05tax which should mean I can repurchase at ~$34 and be fine.

    TSLA seems to have established a nice floor for itself in that range but I am skeptical that it will rise much in the face of politically driven uncertainty that is starting to put downward pressure on the market as a whole. I'm hopeful that this limits my potential losses when I buy back in while leaving me in a position to bargain hunt if there is a sharp move downwards.

    Frankly, Tesla is an awesome company and IMHO folks who are actively shorting it are foolish. It would not surprise me in the least if it rises to $40 next week. But the situation in Washington has me seriously concerned to the point that I am ignoring the fundamentals of the company and instead am looking hard at what the latest word is from the Washington Post.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    We will go over cliff. Too many see benefit, at least for some goals in doing so. Only way for republicans to get spending cuts and to broaden tax base. I personally don't mind paying more if everyone else does too. Dems see immediate political benefit of assessing blame, and have republicans vote against tax cut for those making less than 250k. They also get defense cuts and again watch the other side have to approve or go on record voting against social programs.

    Funny that this was all created by congress that now can't deal with it. Truth is that all will get hurt. We should get innovative and do a value added tax. Consumption based, hidden to consumer, broadens base. Claims that it is regressive not true. Those with less buy less and therefore pay less. Don't like paying tax dont consume as much
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Half of me says to exit the market because of the cliff. The other half says stay because of TSLA. Oh boy.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The Bear Case Against Tesla

    Thought it would be a good exercise to try to argue the Bear case against TSLA:

    1) Model S reservations are growing nicely, but there's no telling when pent-up demand will be satisfied. The Leaf, for instance, also had reservations and pent-up demand, but that pretty quickly dissipated. With Model S, that's obviously going to take a longer time, but you can't prove that there's a sustainable 25K/year demand for Model S over multiple years.

    2) Model X reservations suck. Something like 2K at this point in time I think. Yeah, we don't have real specs nor pricing and they're not pushing it in the stores, but considering the additional base model complexity (eg, falcon doors), added items (3rd row seat), increased weight, increased use of materials (it's a lot taller), it's hard to see the base model not costing $10K-$15K more than Model S's new pricing. That means it starts at $70K. So, it's a high-end premium SUV, which means it doesn't compete with X3 or Q5, etc. It ain't gonna capture any mini-Van sales unless people are willing to spend more. A lot more.

    3) Gen-3 is a tall order. The highest price it can come in at is $47,400 which the Fed rebate brings to $39,900. This isn't a mainstream car. Even so, it's $20K cheaper than the base Model S, yet I don't see how they get there. It needs a 150 mile range minimum, and needs to compete performance-wise and luxury-wise with BMW 3-series and Audi A4, etc. Luxury-wise, Model S is about there (little better in some things, little worse in others), but they're not going save that much money just shrinking things down size-wise. For 150 mile range, they'll need a 45-50kWh battery, which at today's prices is something like $22K. Let's say battery technology improves 25% in 3 years, that means the battery will save about $5500, which means they need another $14,500 in car itself savings. Motor can be smaller, but getting that kind of savings from the mundane car aspects is impossible. Even a 50% battery price per kWh savings saves $11K, which means there's still $9K in savings due to size and quality needed. Pretty steep. Gross margins are going to suffer, and the car is going to need a cheaper to build design, while at the same time compete with the best in the world in terms of appointments/comfort, etc.

    4) If battery technology does vastly improve to make Gen-3 a reality, then BMW and Audi and Lexus could arguably more easily throw it into their best in class cars than Tesla can build a best in class car to surround its drivetrain. The Model S's borderline OK interior shows us just how hard it is to compete with the established car companies in those areas.

    5) Model X production line will probably require an additional capital raise. Gen-3 will definitely require a large capital raise. Those are going to impact the stock price. Other companies can do what Ford does and build different powertrain versions of the same car on the same assembly line, thus reducing their start-up investment costs, and keep risk down. Tesla doesn't have that cost nor risk reduction. And, they still have to pay off their existing loans, which is money they can't invest in new assembly lines.

    6) At today's price (around $34), Tesla needs a lot of profit to get to a reasonable P/E ratio - more profit than they can get from Model S alone. Despite super high short interest, the stock price has already priced in Model S success and Model X successful kickoff at least.Compare Tesla's numbers with a full 20K/year Model S delivery in 2013 to any other successful car company and you'll see that Model S success is already priced in. There's a limit as to how much future potential the stock market will support and Tesla is already testing it.

    7) If the Fed tax rebate goes away, the high end Model S/X sales won't be much impacted, but Gen-3 sales would likely be heavily impacted. That's an uncontrollable future risk for Tesla.

    Again, I'm bullish on Tesla, but I'm trying to build rational bear arguments. What have I missed? Please do not give me grid constraints, coal-power, or other such Petersen-esque items, I want to keep this reasonable as a check against overlooking the real risks and concerns.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The other bearish issue, in my mind, at least....

    Trouble transitioning over to the European / World stage due to charging / battery issues (already having some US reports of excessive battery charge loss in the cold - would make it difficult if one lived in Norway, where we are seeing the greatest number of European reservations).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Would any of the bug/defect or winter driving issues being noted have any impact on the stock or is that all sort of irrelevant relative to cars delivered?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Missed the surtax. With your buy price, and a total rate 23.8%, the threshold moves up to about $71 (when re-buying at the same price). I do expect to sell above $70 eventually (perhaps in a few years), so I am better off keeping the shares until then.

    Yes, selling at $35 and re-buying at $34 seems fine even if capital gains stay at 15%. But the difference in share price between $35 and $34 has a large effect, compared to any potential tax-related savings from this sell/re-buy maneuver even when taxes go up to 23.8%. For example, if you have to buy back at $2 higher (at $37), you already lose all the tax-related savings regardless of the final selling price (unless it is somewhere below $30).

    When re-buying at the same price, in your case, the threshold would be around $73.

    In other words, if one expects to eventually sell (after a longer time of owning the shares, perhaps a few years) at around $70-75, or higher, then one should do this sell/re-buy maneuver only if one expects to be able to buy back at a lower price. (Depending on your original purchase price, though.)

    This is also the time when news from Tesla (about becoming profitable, reaching a high production rate, and continued reservations) may drive the price up. So I guess any "downward pressure on the market" will have to come at the right time, and you'd have to be sure not to miss that time.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Potentially, but in general, the Model S is doing far better than the naysayers predicted.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Responses to "The bear case ..."

    In general, I think, much of these arguments are existing skepticism, and they are already baked into the share price. But it might be an equally good exercise to respond to each.

    The bears predicted all kinds of problems and impossibilities, which Tesla has meanwhile resolved (assuming production rate will be good soon, or already is).
    Continued demand is the last remaining major "question". Model S will improve, sinking battery prices will give Tesla the option to reduce the price, and variations of the platform will address additional market segments, and the SuperCharger network will be extended extensively within the next two years. But even without those, demand currently appears to continue in a healthy manner.

    I think Model X reservations are mostly impacted by it being far away, while the Model S is starting to be available (and having a large cargo room as well). The falcon doors are too new for people to trust them from the distance. If implemented solidly, they will turn into something attracting buyers who would otherwise not consider an EV. Not everyone will like them, but their functionality is (currently) not available on any other car, electric or not. And a top acceleration of 4.4 sec with electrically controlled AWD will of course be another selling point.

    Compared to the Model S, aside from the smaller size and for example lower cost interior materials, significant savings will of course come from mass-production and lower high-volume prices from suppliers. It appears battery technology in the next 3 years may have a larger than average decline in costs. Also, with the Model S, Tesla will have gained relevant experience in reducing cost and efficiency in production. A major advantage should be that Tesla can easily offer great performance without much higher cost.

    The Gen III doesn't seem to need a better interior than Tesla already knows how to make, and in any case that is an expertise which should be available on the market.

    However, building a cost-efficient first-class electric drive train, hardware and software, is non-trivial, involves lots of patents, and is an expertise that can't be bought easily on the market. Other companies have not shown that it would be easy to do something similar, on the contrary. Leaf and Volt each required many years of development, without really achieving the same 'wow' result for the electric drivetrain.

    I don't think Model X will necessarily require an additional capital raise, and haven't seen anyone (who would be knowledgable enough) saying so. Once Tesla is profitable, the need for the recent capital raise as a "cushion" will go away, and since the Model X will be produced mostly on the same production line, the necessary investment won't be that high.

    The skepticism of the bearish position is also already priced in, the existing short interest can't be put aside. So the argument goes both ways. In so far as Tesla will address many concerns about production and profitability in the next months, many risks which are in fact still baked into the share price, will fall away within a few months.

    I don't see that happening. Tesla is in the midst of proving that electric cars are *the* technology worth supporting, that a valid business model for them exists, and that they contribute to a working economy. This will increase a very positive context for government support. Also, for example, one city recently decided to have most of their fleet be electric.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have been watching the reservation numbers closely. The Model S been running at about 70 a day 25,550 a year. Model X been running about 10 a day 3,650 a year similar to what the Model S was at this stage of the X. Once they start releasing more info on the X reservations will increase. They are taking in roughly $400,000 daily in reservations. I have been thinking of selling my profit alone but have not done so yet instead I keep buying on a weekly basis (You read correctly "buying on a weekly basis")
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think we are past the danger phase. Production has ramped up nicely. Tesla has shown all of us that they can make these cars. In September, when there was a danger that production would not ramp up at the proper pace was when Elon said they were in the critical phase. They did a secondary offering to bring in enough cash to get them over the hump. Elon is not a man to pull punches and we all saw the stress and nervousness when he spoke of the six month pitfall. There is plenty of evidence of his not holding back and everyone might remember the moment on 60 Minutes when they mentioned how astronauts thought SpaceX was reckless and dangerous. Elon was very choked up that his heroes didn't believe in him. Elon is now confident that Tesla will succeed.

    So that is my reasoning for why Tesla is going to seriously kick @ss. If Elon is confident, then I am confident.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The idea here is not to defend against the bear arguments, but to find the best bear arguments you can.

    Then you can decide if you're being overly optimistic.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    :confused: To me it seems to make more sense to put any arguments in their proper context, *before* using them to check your optimism.

    BTW, if you are looking for more risks, you could also check Tesla's own SEC filings, usually at the end they contain a (somewhat) scary risk section. It is actually quite easy to come up with negative what-if scenarios.

    There is actually a bunch of arguments that I can think of, which raise the question of whether I should be even more optimistic, long-term. But I think it would be 2-3 months too early for that discussion.

    Right now, the question for me is if Tesla will use the first profits to cover areas that have been perhaps underfunded so far, and hire staff to get on top of things. However this point in time hasn't really come yet.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Huh, you know the production rate? Can you tell me and what your source is? Company very quiet. Getting me scared. There would seem no reason to keep it a secret. I am long on company but have to wonder if I can continue that if they are not willing to announce production rate after new year. Unless lower than expected no reason to keep secret until conference call. Remember this is CEO who broadcast cash positive as soon as it happened. Criticism was only in his choice of media he chose to announce it in.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I would be shocked if Tesla doesn't talk about the production rate at their next quarterly earnings call / announcement.

    I would be equally shocked if Tesla says anything official and public about the production rate before the next quarterly earnings call / announcement. Between now and that quarterly earnings call / announcement, we'll be speculating about the production rate because its such an important indicator of Tesla's financial status, but again - I would be shocked if we have anything but speculation.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't find this odd at all. We'll here soon enough. Can't expect up to the minute updates on the state of the business.

    Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I do find it odd. He can't wait to tweet cash positive but suddenly develops restraint not to tell of another milestone. I know we will hear at cc but what about next week. Not asking minute to minute mundane updates but production rate was huge miss last qtr. by the way it's hear not here or hair
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    He probably 'got yelled at' for doing that. I believe it is illegal to do that sort of 'selective distribution of information' which is why the SEC just went after the Netflix CEO for tweeting that they reached a billion views. There are SEC social media rules in place. Elon probably learned his lesson and I wouldn't expect any other updates like that except for him posting stuff like links to articles published by other people talking about something positive for the company.
    http://betabeat.com/2012/12/elon-musk-is-the-latest-tech-ceo-who-cant-be-bothered-by-secs-social-media-restrictions/
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks for the English lesson, but that was just auto-complete acting up. I should have proofed it before posting, but usually when I'm mobile, I'm rushed.

    In the future you might want to make sure you have all your prepositions in your post where you criticize someone else's grammar.

    "not asking minute to minute updates"

    Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There were a 'ton' of cars sitting outside on Christmas Day when we drove past the Fremont plant.
    I had a feeling that they were getting close to the target as of the 1st of December when I picked up my car but they were near 300 / week at that time
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    How do you know they were at 300/week on 12/1 when you picked up car? More than one person told you hopefully... Thanks!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    close to 300, just under, from what I heard it was around 260 the week before december). We were also told to forget #'s (when a group of us was watching the station/employee times & looking at vins and sequence #'s)

    I'd love to take another factory tour. Maybe someone can update from a more recent tour like last week/this week
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    260 a week isn't close to 300.


    Who told you it was 260? You overheard someone in your tour group say it or did a Tesla employee tell you?
    On Dec 24 I read they are producing about 200 a week and by the end of the year, 400.
    http://www.jconline.com/article/20121223/NEWS/312230027/Tesla-owner-s-electric-cars-a-gas
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hopefully musk doesn't say forget numbers in cc
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Perhaps production rate is already high on average (ie sometimes even higher), but still fluctuating...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just spoke to a source in the minority whip operation in the House (ie a Dem) and they've been told to prepare to whip Democratic votes for a small package that addresses taxes and defers at least some of the sequester. McConal and Reid are working the details as we speak and it's not certain exactly what will come out of the Senate, but right now she thinks its based on the original Senate bill that lets taxes rise on income over 250k. Cap gains rise as scheduled and dividends get rolled back to the new cap gain rate instead of being taxed as normal income.

    She isn't really sure yet though, except that the package is expected to rely on Dem votes to pass the House and that probably doesn't happen unless its close to the original senate bill.

    I'm thinking I'll dip my toes back into TSLA tonight and put some orders in. Debt Ceiling isn't a crisis for 2 months, and by this evening we should have more info about the proposed package, which I expect to boost the market and create (potentially ilfounded) confidence in Washingtons ability to get a deal done on the debt ceiling.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Um, that's what I'm doing. Finding the best bear arguments and then see if they are good enough to make me more cautious. Got any really good ones I haven't yet covered?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Honestly, I don't. (Except maybe something like: EV enthusiasts might lose their enthusiasm after a few years of working electric cars. However I think the opposite will happen, so that doesn't count.)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Re: Production Rate. I was given VIN 2383 and told it was finishing the line on 12/16. Contributor Mark on the Sequencing thread was told his VIN 3229 was "finishing the line" now. If we take "now" as tomorrow and do the math, that is 846 in 14 days or 423/week. This should be pretty close.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nice to see this channel of more reasonable analysis after spending way too much time defending Tesla against JP's latest attack.

    I believe that Tesla is out of the woods and pretty much a sure thing.

    Elon Musk has done it. He came up with a formula for how to make it work and then executed it well.

    He created a car that is priced equal to or less than equivalent ICE cars in the same luxury class, and that operates at 20% or less of the cost of those cars, while out performing them on the road and with zero emissions.

    He got the factory up to speed and operational, a little late, but it's done! He is shipping cars left and right.
    The cars are winning awards left and right. There is a tremendous amount of excitement around the car!

    Now we are entering a phase where momentum is building around the car as they are hitting the streets and more and more people are becoming aware of the advantages of this car, how cool it is, and how well it performs.

    I wasn't that excited about the Leaf, or the Volt. I have never been this excited about any car as I am the Model S, and I am not alone, and that is by design- this is not supposed to be just another EV, it's designed to be the best best car, ever.

    Most people don't realize that there is basically already a charging station at every house (120VAC outlet worst case) and because of that, with a little planning, an EV is MORE convenient than an ICE car for 99% of trips, not less convenient. There is no stop at the gas station anymore-- not to mention changing of oil and many other routine maintenance rituals embedded in ICE cars.

    The supercharger stations turn this into a slam dunk.

    The supercharger stations eliminate the very last adoption hurdle - the ability to take long trips. Sure it will take a couple of years to roll out, but people in the target demographic of the Model S can afford to wait and Tesla's business model at this phase is designed to survive and prosper on that relatively low volume of sales.

    So maybe the best course of action we can take is to just buy long as much as we can, and hold. The more people shorting the stock, the bigger the short squeeze will be down the road.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree with everything you said above and I'm a long term investor.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    VERY good news!!!

    - - - Updated - - -

    VERY good news!!!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm looking to schedule my tour around mid-January
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I had a nightmare last night that the short squeeze hit, and Tesla hit 400 dollars a share. However, for some reason I went to sell and all my TSLA shares were gone. They were in Microsoft for some reason.

    Anyways, just a heads up in case I am dreaming of the future!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    TESLA the nex DELOREAN? NO WAY JOSE!

    TESLA the nex DELOREAN? NO WAY JOSE!

    From the inception of TESLA motor�s IPO, many doubters have been comparing this company to the failures of other automotive companies such as Tucker and most notoriously, Delorean. Ever since the successful launch of Ford�s IPO over 60 years ago, approximately 5 other automotive companies have attempted to become the next big 4 of the American automotive industry�all have failed. It was from this premise that led many doubters to short TESLA stocks, betting that this new startup company would also meet the same fate as Delorean. However, as a historian and independent stock analyst, I am betting that TESLA will NOT meet the same fate as Delorean, but on the contrary, TESLA will be the next big 4. However, to understand why TESLA will succeed, we must first analyze why Delorean failed.

    First let�s examine the company CEO

    Delorean�s CEO was John Delorean. John Delorean quickly rose above the ranks in the automotive world and was making approximately $600,000 a year after bonuses at his peak (about $1.5 million in today�s money). Although Delorean had immense success while working with GM, we cannot compare his intellectual capability to that of ELon Musk, who is a certified Genius. By age 10, Musk was a self taught computer programmer and by age 12, had invented his first video game and sold it for $500. By the age of 28, Musk was a self made millionaire after selling his internet software publishing company known as Zip2 to Compaq for approximately $340 million in cash and stock options. If this isn�t enough to persuade you that Musk was destined for great accomplishments, his next big invention was PayPal, which sold to Ebay in 2002 for $1.5 BILLION.

    Aside from being a brilliant entrepreneur and computer programmer, Musk is also a genius physicist who owns another business--a rocket company known as SpaceX. Currently Musk�s rocket company has billions of dollars in contracts from NASA, private satellite launches and the U.S military. SpaceX is the only private rocket company in the world that has successfully demonstrated its ability to dock with International Space Station. SpaceX has been so successful in building rockets, that it is capable of building its product efficiently enough to be less expensive than the entire Chinese government can; therefore, proving another of Musk strengths�his ability to innovate and invent. SpaceX currently owns the only known equipment in the world to build rockets so efficient that it will cost less if you contract with them rather than the Chinese.
    It is through Musk�s genius that led him to create the TESLA Roadster, an electric car capable of zooming from the speed of 0-60 in 3.9 seconds, comparatively; Musk�s Roadster is faster than the Ferrari Modena Spider and F430 which clocks at 0-60 time of about 4 seconds. Imagine that! An electric car that�s faster than a Ferrari. Therefore, it�s through Elon�s genius and entrepreneur background that makes him a much more qualified engineer and CEO than John Delorean.
    Delorean on the other hand was in financial trouble, he was indicted for being in a drug smuggling scheme to help finance his car company, this ultimately led to his company�s downfall as the company was in financial troubles. Delorean�s net worth was very minor compared to Musk, although a $600,000 annual salary was impressive, its nowhere comparable to Musk�s net worth which is somewhere in the billions. Another characteristic that sets Musk leagues apart from Delorean is Musk�s pulling power. When Musk talks, Washington listens, he is one of the best lobbyist and salesman to date, his presence commands attention. This was very much evident when SpaceX, a new startup company won contracts from NASA and U.S military when it competed in the ranks of Lockheed and Boeing. Even the state of California bent over backwards to lobby for Musk�s TESLA Motors to be stationed in the golden state. Presently if you buy a MODEL S in California, you will receive a $2,500 rebate check from the state and a HOV carpool pass. California also awarded TESLA $10,000,000 with incentive towards the production of it�s next vehicle�the model X. By the time Delorean had produce his first vehicle, the DMC-12, he was already in financial trouble. This is where we really draw the line between TESLA and Delorean. Despite being in financial trouble early on, Musk�s aggressive style investment in SpaceX, Solarcity and TESLA simultaneously proved to be a huge success. Clearly out of the woods in terms financial hardship, Musk led TESLA into the production of its 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] vehicle the MODEL S, and by next year the MODEL X, within 3 years the mass market 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] generation rumored to be known as �bluestar� will be available to the market around 30-40k. Presently, as of December 31, 2012, the MODEL S is virtually sold out with 19,983 anxious buyers.

    Second, lets examine the Delorean DMC-12 to the TESLA Model S as both vehicles have comparable prices.

    A Delorean DMC-12 would have cost you about $25,000 (which equates to about $63,000 in today�s money). However, take a closer look at a Delorean, and you will understand why this car was overpriced. First the Delorean 0-60 time clocked in at about 10.5 seconds by the Road&Track Magazine. While the TESLA Model S costing $52,000 base price (after rebates) has a 0-60 time of 6.5 seconds. Thus, the Delorean is a slow sports car at best, for the asking price Delorean was competing in the same market with faster sports cars such as Corvettes. The Model S, however, is in a class of its own, where else can you find a sleek sports luxury sedan capable of seating up to 7 passengers with sleek styling that runs on electric? Arguably, the Delorean DMC-12 was indeed a very stylish and sleek car during its time; however, asking 63k for a gas guzzling slow sports car is by the far not the right way of approaching the automotive market. The slow Delorean reportedly gets only 20MPG, thus further contributing it to failure. Why would anyone pay more for a slower vehicle that demands more Gas per miles of travel? This explains why Delorean reservations were extremely slow compared to that of the MODEL S. On the other hand, TESLA approached the automotive business by tapping into a new market. This market is one where the consumer would rather pay much less for MPG, instead of pumping gas into their cars, customers can fill up their battery with electricity�at a much cheaper cost. Furthermore, TESLA�s genius is that it ultimately was able to break the notion that electric cars are ugly, small and un-cool. By making the MODEL S fast, stylish, and roomy they are able to command higher prices for the vehicle. With a goal of only selling 20,000 Model S for 2013, TESLA is virtually sold out and the New Year has barely started TODAY.
    Besides the cool, electric, stylish, spacious, luxury, and speed factor; the MODEL S has one more quality to it that the Delorean lacked�advance technology. The model S is the only car where it�s command center is a 17inch LCD touch screen. Not only is the touch screen an automotive marvel, it�s instantaneously responsive, smooth and more powerful than your IPAD. Additional tech such as regenerative GASING is available on the car; this means that the moment you release the gas pedal, the MODEL S immediately uses the kinetic energy to regenerate power into its batteries. The MODEL S also has better handling as the vehicle has a lower center of gravity, which gives the driver better control and less �roll� when the vehicle makes sharp turns.
    Clearly, the MODEL S is worth the money for what the consumer is getting in return. Although only a small fraction of Americans can afford this car, TESLA claims that it would be profitable if 10,000 Model S are sold per year, a goal that appears within reach as production ramps up to 400 vehicles per week.

    Third let�s examine the factories.

    DeLorean�s factory was approximately 600,000 Square Foot set in Northern Ireland. It cannot possibly compare to TESLA�s NUMMI 5.3 million square foot plant set in America where it�s main customer base is located. The NUMMI plant is capable of producing up to 600,000 vehicles per year. TESLA bought the Nummi from a joint adventure of Toyota and GM. After buying the NUMMI plant, Tesla went to work and immediately sought after Detroit�s manufacturing tools and equipment during the downturn of the automotive industry and acquired those equipments for pennies on the dollar, saving TESLA billions of dollars in cash. Today, Tesla owns some of the world�s biggest aluminum stamping machines capable of producing hundreds of Model S per week at NUMMI. If you are curious about the NUMMI plant, I recommend you visit Youtube and type in the word �TESLA NATIONAL GEOGRAPHICS� and you will get a clearer understanding of production. No word or writing can convey what you will learn from watching this video, enjoy. I AM LONG TESLA
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am guessing it is not firm or at least not announced since I can not find the info anywhere .... but does anyone know when they will release q4 data? From looking at past releases it looks like maybe a couple weeks into January? any knowledge on this would be appreciated :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Domestic oil prices are dropping compared to world prices as North American demand drops and production rises and the infrastructure to export the excess isn't developed. This could reduce the demand for people to switch to electric in the medium term until that gets corrected.
    �
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