Thứ Sáu, 28 tháng 10, 2016

TSLA Investor Discussions part 28

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree that there are many, many reasons for TSLA to go up. But at this critical point in time, there is also plenty good reason for it to not go up. Right now there are many hurdles that they have to clear. I personally believe that they will be successful (or perhaps it's just my optimistic nature). But until there is relatively absolute proof that they can pull off this complete industry-changing concept, the price of their stock is really just an exciting crap-shoot. Thankfully there are enough of us believers to realize the opportunity that we have in front of us.

    First off I want to state that yes, I am short TSLA puts right now. However... there is a counter to your claim of "a no lose situation". And that is if you believe that TSLA puts will hit their strike but they don't and instead the stock only goes up, then the only profit that you have gained is the premium from selling the puts. And since you didn't buy the stock outright, you will Lose? the opportunity to participate in the appreciation of the underlying security.

    Right on! I think that you can't go wrong buying TSLA (or should I say more TSLA?) at the current level or lower.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I had a $27 in last week to even my Tsla share #. maybe it will got to 26.50 so I can make an even better even # 1k...and I have no Idea how my 100 shares keeps getting bigger? oh well. not planning on selling them anyway. i want to follow the C-T method but I just keep buying more
    woohoo 0.1% owner (almost)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    More. :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Lol. Buying is the easy part. Takes a lot of discipline to sell when everything is going right, I totally understand.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I could have sold at multiple highs at this point and bought more shares at the drops but since I'm not planning on selling for years, have just held off. It is tough though.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No doubt about that.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    We haven't seen him here in a long time. Likewise with Steph. He didn't get evicted again did he?

    - - - Updated - - -

    I'm to chicken to sell. However, I'm going to have to sell 50-100 shares in my IRA by the end of the year (for tax purposes).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No, Steph hasn't been evicted again :) - I do stay in casual contact with him. He's heavily focused on Quebecois politics at the moment.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Is he in the Obama or Romney camp?

    :wink:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If he were able to vote in a US election (but he's Canadian), based on his fb posts, I think it's safe to say he'd not be voting for Romney.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Obama isn't the President of Canada?

    :tongue:

    Sorry. I seem to be amusing myself. I had a good friend that lived in Canada and it frustrated him to no end that American's thought that Canada had "states."

    And to get back on topic: I bought another 85 shares today at the low point.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That's one thing about Steph, you never have to wonder how he feels about something.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You might want to save some powder for the reaction to Q3 results, including low volumes of Model S delivered.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yep! That's a factor that is at the forefront of my mind. Right now I'm less than 5% invested in all things TSLA. And for the near term I certainly do expect continued uncertainty from investors. But I'm ready to raise my stake at the drop of a hat. (A Tesla hat that is!) And for the longer term I believe that we'll look back and say thank goodness I bought some at $28.

    Cheers =)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's killing me not to buy right now. My plan is to wait for results.

    You know, when shoes go on sale, you typically know how long the sale will last. There's none of this other business. :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not amused...we have had our share of career bureaucrats thank you very much... :wink::tongue:

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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    bought yesterday some TSLA - I could not resist :) Their product is outstanding - only supply issues make the stock currently stay below 30... but once their suppliers get their **** together (quote from Elon ;) ) we will enjoy the show
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Understood.

    Do they ever, when the sale is ending, announce a further 10% or more discount?

    Or, have a one-day 'surprise sale'?

    :wink:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not typically. Usually they sell off the remaining picked-over inventory to discount stores.

    This is more like Vegas.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Are you trying to tell us you own more shoes than shares of TSLA? :wink:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Imelda "Bonnie" Marcos!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    In case people are looking for options, the June $25 Puts might bring about $5. That's a net buy price of $20 if you're exercised, or a profit of about 30% if not.

    I'm trying real hard not to commit more dollars towards Tesla right now.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not currently.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And if you're more risk adverse, the June $14 Puts are netting over a buck. That a net buy price of under $13!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    They do have states... all winter
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I flirted with buying today as well, but am still hesitating based on the production and delivery ramp. Really hoping TM doesn't reduce either number....again.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree as I like the lower risk through trading options (naked puts and covered calls).

    I wrote some Nov $28 and Nov $29 puts last week. Given the price drop this week, I decided to buy the puts to cover (closing both positions). Lost a bit on each. Turned around and wrote some Nov $27 puts and some Dec $27 puts.

    The interesting part was that I lowered the put price by $2 and $1 (from $29 and $28 to $27) and collected cash on the trade.

    Looking ahead, TSLA may drop after the Q3 earnings call (with the Q4 guidance), which could be another opportunity to write more puts/push out the puts.

    If customer deliveries are delayed due to Frankenstorm, that will be OK as it isn't the end of the quarter yet and the production story will remain the same (regardless of delivery delays due to the storm).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This could be a good news...

    Production Rate (incl manufacturing waves) - Page 17
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    One more thing I learned at the opening. Tesla has one employee who is targeting corporate/fleet sales. It sounds like it's a relatively new position, and the individual is the only one pursuing these opportunities at this point, but they would like to engage customers who want to enhance their green/cutting edge cred by associating themselves with Tesla.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    TSLA short interest is now (or rather, as of 10/15/2012) 30,352,848.

    That's a new record, being higher than 4 weeks ago.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Short Interest

    The 3rd public offering increased the float by about 8 million shares (counting the "Greenshoe"); thus far relatively few of the new shares have been shorted. Volume traded in the first full week of November should be massive. "Be careful out there."
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What happens in the first full week of November that'll change the normal volume?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    A rhetorical question, ckessel?

    - Q3 earnings call on Nov 5th
    - Election Day, Nov 6th with an anti-Tesla Presidential hopeful who has a chance of winning
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not rhetorical at all. When brian45011 referenced the 8 million new shares then in next sentence talked about massive volume, I wondered if there were some special laws/regulations around those shares and November would suddenly release them to be traded freely or some such oddity.

    I didn't see any reason to think that first week would be any different than any other week. I forgot about the call, but I'm not sure I see much reason volume would be much different from the volume around previous calls. And even with those other calls and whatever volume occurred, the stock didn't budge much. Unless Tesla announces some devastatingly huge news, I don't see much reason for the stock to move. It hasn't moved much before (relative to it's normal high volatility swings), even when Tesla cut targets by 40%.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So, I am new to investing and I know this is a volatile stock which doesn't concern me much. I wanted to get some of your guys input on purchasing more shares. I will have income to buy more prior to the earnings call, but I see that it may be a bad plan since during the earnings call, or more specifically when the earnings get released, the price is likely to go down. How many think that I should wait until after the 5th? Yes I know you guys can't look into a crystal ball, but I like to ask experienced people before making my own informed decision.

    With that note, how advantageous is it in general to wait for an end of quarter release for a business before investing in them? Is it always best to wait if the date is close, or are there to many variables to answer that?

    EDIT: I am long on TSLA
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm not an experienced investor but if you haven't already saved up enough money for the Model S, that might be a better use of funds.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm not adding any more shares before the call, unless I come across some major news that makes me change my mind. I'm holding what I have, so if the price goes up I'm happy, and if the price drops significantly I might add more, depending on what caused the drop. I've caught a falling knife a few times before so don't take my thoughts as expert guidance :wink:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It may, however I am going down a different track with my reservation. Earlier I was going to reserve in September, but I felt as though I should finish paying off all my debts before continuing to save up for a vehicle that is 3 times more then the one I own now. I do want to get the 85kwh vehicle, so I will wait till that time. Meanwhile, I have decided to invest in TSLA as I think they will go up next year which will catch me up to saving for the vehicle while paying off my debt. All that considered, I should be reserving Q2 next year without having to take on more then 20k in financing (I hope).

    Anyway, that is the why of it. I already have a large position in TSLA (Well to my viewpoint, maybe not others) so I want to expand on it for now. So that is why. :)

    Thank you JRP as well for your input. A neat thought. I am not as happy with my position, while I have quite a few shares already I would like to have more... I think I will wait until after the call as well. Better to be safe then sorry.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    New Elon Tweet: "V proud of Tesla team for completing 1000th Model S body. More cars made this month than entire rest of year"

    Trying to parse what he means by "more cars made this month than entire rest of year". We know that the last week of september they were making 100 cars/week. Anyone know how many cars they made thru end of September?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    w00t!

    Thanks for the news.


    p.s. I believe that after the fifth post you're allowed to add an avatar. Then you'll be avatar 2x.

    And if you were to use something like this Avatareye-80x80.jpg then you would be avatar 3x. :biggrin:

    Cheers =)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    We know they have completed production of 359 cars total by the end of September... With ~100 of them produced last week of Sep. So not much information in the statement...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    In his Oct 3rd blog, Elon mentioned they (just) completed the 500th body. This means they made 500 bodies in the last ~25 days.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    GG explained what I was thinking. I probably should have put the volume comment in a new paragraph as I did not mean to imply a special law/regulation.

    I think TSLA and the market have been trading with relatively low volume because of uncertainty; the conference call and election will resolve much of the uncertainty (the fiscal cliff/taxaggedon still has to be addressed.)

    The conference call should be more substantive than prior ones, with official information about:
    -deliveries
    -production rate
    -reservations
    -financial details of Supercharger capital and operating expenses.
    -guidance for 2013, and (maybe)
    -customer relations.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So is there any validity to the fears of this "taxaggedon" thing? The way I understand it is that next year taxes on investments (or sold stock?) will be more next year, forcing a lot of people to divest before the years end to avoid it. I don't know, it just sounds like it won't happen as dramatically as people are saying.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It may or may not happen. The market will reflect the probability that it is going to happen. As it looks more and more likely that the tax rate will change, more and more people will sell. If it begins to look like the tax cut will be extended, more people will hold off on selling.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The prevalent belief is that both parities will punt the problem into 2014; but until they do, uncertainty reigns.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Finally an advantage for Tesla followers who live on the east coast:

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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It would surprise me if they went through this effort to release any disappointing news just before the election. So I'd think in general they expect the news will be seen as good, or at least encouraging.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is a good article to remind us of what not to do when investing: 15 Biases That Make You A Bad Investor

    Actually just 14:

    1 Confirmation bias
    2 Recency bias
    3 Backfiring effect
    4 Anchoring
    5 Framing bias
    6 Skill bias
    7 Hindsight bias
    8 Pessimism bias
    9 Halo effect
    10 Illusion of control
    11 Escalation of commitment
    12 Negativity bias
    13 Ostrich bias
    14 Risk perception bias
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The Tesla spokesman makes an odd statement.
    So, the moved call time is related to Romney's attacks, but yet the info on the call won't be related to the election...in which case, why move the time?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Source?

    I'd think that the earnings statement will show that Tesla is not a "loser" (even if the delays may have had a negative impact), but that it otherwise will not have any news relating to the topics being discussed in the election.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, I guess this:

    could also mean that they expect the results to be perceived as negative (which in the financial-short-term they likely will be). I guess we'll just have to see how the market reacts to that there have been delays, while production is now increasing.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Skeptic in me thinks that they do not want to release disappointing news and trying to move release time/date as close as possible to election so that bad news wont be used in political football:cursing:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And you are getting angry over your own skepticism? ;)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think TSLA will confirm guidance on production and revenues at the lower end of what they said before (2,500 vehicles delivered to customers in Q4) and that TSLA will be cash flow break even by 12/31/12. This is good news for the DOE loan so having as much time to release the results before the election will prevent Romney from making any more negative statements regarding TSLA and the DOE loans to TLSA.

    There is a balancing act between getting as much of the production ramp behind them and as much time before the election.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Except that they are moving up the release, not delaying it.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Am I missing something? Complete silence regarding this so-called Q&A session. While the east coast is certainly having issues, Northern California is just fine. Has it been cancelled, postponed, or what? The silence is killing me.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The earnings call is next Monday. Was there some other call planned today?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree with @JRP3: if this is bad news, they'd want to delay it. So, I'm hopeful that it's good news.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think it was originally scheduled for today. A few weeks ago they moved it until next week, then adjusted it again because of the elections.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hmm... Not sure. But even with everything going on as planned (usually "nothing" instead of "everything":biggrin:) we should have some sort of guard.

    Not to get angry at him, but to learn when he managed to come up being right and when he usually fails miserably... :frown:

    Guilty as charged!!! I just thought that Nov 5 release date was awfully close to election date... Without looking too much into details. My bad.

    Opps, I do agree with JRP3 too!

    Nope, even recently it was scheduled for a day before election. If you would like to go into nuances, then you can figure out was it schedule before full moon or after.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Earning were pushed back a few weeks ago. See this post.

    Also referenced on this page: MSN Money
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Would it be better to buy now or after earnings when it could potentially drop due to delays? I'm betting post earnings.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yay, my position as a whole isn't underwater anymore.

    Not sure how much of today's rise is the Automobile COTY vs. the market just being up big in general.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think this rise before earnings is an ominous sign, as it increases expectations. There's no way earnings will be good. It seems really unlikely that Tesla did any better with production than their revised guidance, and there's a decent chance that they didn't quite make it. Add in the financial numbers are going to look bad and even though that part is expected, I think there will be disappointment and the stock will tank - temporarily at least.

    My prediction, which isn't even worth the bandwidth used to send it to your computer, is that Tesla just missed production targets for the Q3, but has "caught up" during October. They'll keep the revised Q4 production target intact. Reservations will be near 15K total, and the number of reservations taken during Q3 will have been the highest ever. Stock will drop, with a recovery by early December when production rates are up a bit and non-Sigs start getting their cars.

    Now that I've gone on record, the smart money is probably betting against me.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'd guess a little of both. The awards effect, I think, will be a spike, but ultimately what is going to drive the price is production increases, cash flow, and consistent quarters in these regards.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agree with most of this. Though, the influx of Car of the Year awards seems to be what the market cares about right now, and then there is the election. Too much news flying around right now to trade, I've got my position set and my insurance in place. I'm just going to sit it out.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not sure. But analytics I saw were placing EPS losses in .90 to .98 range.
    With revenue projections from 48 to 51M usd.

    I think that is already priced into share price. Will Tesla underperform or overperform? Toss of a coin. So Q3 release could drive share price up or down, but it is hard to tell...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'd think that for investors two big questions are whether Tesla will be successful with the ramp up, and later with having a continued market for the Model S (the shorts betting against that). The two "auto of the year" awards should definitely increase confidence in the latter. However the shorts might be difficult to convince, and just be stubborn for a while. ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Smorgasboard, I agree with what you are saying re messages on production targets, and reservations likely to come on earnings call. I don't agree with your expectations on the stock price.

    I think we are bascially in the process of a momentum shift. Since the summer when it became clear that the first car or two produced was delivered a couple of month's before the company was really in a meaningful production phase there's been a cloud on the stock. throw in the reduced production numbers announced with secondary and momentum has been flat/negative.

    the awards, cash added in secondary (short term hit to stock, but bigger safety net a long term positive for the viability of the company), Supercharger announcement, feedback of reservationists getting cars (I do believe analysts are reading these boards),and the tangibility that Tesla will inevitably get to 20M/year production rate (whether in December, Jan, or even Feb) are shifting momentum in my opinion. I think the earnings call will either modestly or significantly reaffirm perception that ramp-up will happen near inevitably, imperfect execution becoming irrelevant (and also inevitable in hindsight).

    I say momentum continuing to shift if the call goes as you described. If, however, Tesla drops target, or describes supply issues that may disrupt production, obviously headwind for stock.

    Here's why I am optimistic of momentum shift. Look at a one year chart of the stock. upper or mid 30s in March/April and July. the stock moved up earlier in the year based far more on expectation than tangible results compared to where we are today. in other words, if the market priced the stock in mid 30's before any cars produced, what's the market's view with actual production progressing, very enthusiastic customers with cars in hand, $200 million increase to cash safety net, Supercharger network response to range question, and Car of Year awards. I think the main reason price hasn't rebounded sooner was the second slow down in production (where delivery dates were missed last month) and poor communication about these issues. I think these have both been dealt with, and I think the call will solidify investor confidence about this. of course, if Romney wins the next day, knock on stock. but then again, Obama has some lead.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not an experienced investor posting: If I wanted to purchase TSLA stock, and after reading this thread in a cursory manner, would it be better to buy tomorrow (Friday the 2nd), or wait until after Monday's call and consider a dip for a Tuesday purchase? Just asking.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sublimaze1, I don't always get it right, but I've done a fair amount of investing... when I'm sitting on the fence I often split the difference, i.e. take amount I plan to buy, and by half now, leaving dry powder if stock goes down after announcement. I don't know about you, but my transaction cost is $7.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Excellent advice. Nobody knows how the investment call will be regarded, but getting stock tomorrow with a tight rope may not be a bad idea. You can always put in a stop loss amount and then let the market decide if you went in too soon and should have waited until after the 3rd quarter announcement.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No way. Tesla shorts are all from Missouri. They don't believe what Tesla management says. At best they think Tesla is playing fast and loose and can't keep all the balls in the air long enough. At worse, they think Elon is playing a shell game and will fail spectacularly. To them, imperfect execution is the tip of the "Tesla is going down" iceberg. They will look at Q3 actual deliveries, not Q4 or 2013 promises. They will look at Q3 revenue, not Q4 or 2013 profit margins. They will look at cancellations, not increases in reservations. They are all saying: "Show me, dont promise."

    Basically, I don't think there will be anything in the Q3 shareholder letter or conference call to make a Missouri Short change his or her mind.

    I'm invested in Tesla on the long side, but let's play Devil's advocate:

    Tesla: "Model S is winning awards."
    Short: "Chevy Volt won Automobile car of the year in 2011, and it's been a consistent money loser for GM."

    Tesla: "We successfully raised cash in Q3."
    Short: "Yeah, and you're going to need even more since you're not delivering enough cars."

    Tesla: "Superchargers across the country."
    Short: "That's going to cost you money you don't have to build, maintain, and power these things."

    Tesla: "People getting their cars love them."
    Short: "Yeah, all 249 of them."

    Tesla: "We will produce 20K cars in 2013."
    Short: "You couldn't even make your reduced shipment guidance for Q3."

    Tesla: "Reservations are at their highest rate ever."
    Short: "So are cancellations."

    You get the idea. To the Shorts, it's all promises and futures and Tesla hasn't been all that great at keeping them in the past.


    I'm not selling today in anticipation of buying back after the announcement, but I certainly won't be buying more before the announcement. (Of course that means now really is the best time to buy, since I'm usually wrong).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It is one thing when a company is producing 'things' that the public can't see being made and aren't invited to view. Tesla has shown off their factory and production line extensively. It is working and almost up to full speed.

    How can you still live in Missery?

    I think the stock will creep back to $35 during this run up and P reservations will be contacted next week to set up deliveries.
    Recent awards should put the S in the lamestream media.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Smorgasboard, I don't doubt that there are short true believers. I don't doubt that some will take a bunker mentality even if it means losing every penny they have.

    and yes, those short true believers are part of what determines Telsa's market price, as are all buyers and sellers. to the rest of us buyers and sellers who impact the price of the stock but do not wear short true believer glasses (including shorts who are wise enough to act on reason rather than emotion), all the encouraging information you've repeated makes for a more attractive company than the one that was valued in the mid 30s earlier in the year. to be sure, there were shorts this summer when shares were trading at $36.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Guess that depends on your definition of "almost." I thought they were an order of magnitude away from full speed.


    No way, unless there are 500 built cars all waiting for 1 part that's arriving tomorrow.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Given that the shorts have only increased in recent weaks, I don't think so either. However, if it is as Elon suggested, and the potential to short is more or less exhausted, then they can't drive the price further down.

    I'd guess the share price will at some point start going up, due to other investors' increased confidence, first, long before the shorts give up. Though not necessarily next week already.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, I think there will be (some) blood on Monday. Took some profits today and may jump back in after Monday's call.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Prediction: The price will go up on Monday.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Prediction: The price will go down on Monday.

    - - - Updated - - -

    You're both right.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    When I was an economist at the Fed, this was a frequent, short-lived conversation:

    Other: "Will interest rates go up or down?"
    Me: "Yes."
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Interesting, since "no change" is actually the most common occurence.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well... He didn't say when.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Here's one of my favorite idioms...

    Question: How do you make money in the stock market?

    Answer: Never buy at the bottom and always sell too soon.

    :tongue:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What happened there at the end of today? Big mutual fund selling of ahead of the Q3 call?
    [after a 4% rise the stock lost all of it plus one more percent in the last 20 mins of trading.]
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Big sell off for profit taking or did someone get an advanced copy of the earnings sheet?

    tsla.PNG
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The volume involved looks more like in the order of 50k shares. So nothing big.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What a turnaround at the very end of the day, right before the earnings call on Monday!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The Dow dropped about 200 points from the time it opened to the time it closed, which probably accounted for some of the drop.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hello People. New to this website, and a bit of an investor in Tesla. I also dabble in Apple and found this comment on a website I use, Nanseninvestments.com. This is not an advertisement for that website, and I have nothing to do with it, I only post it as a reference for those interested in elaborating. If I understand this correctly, is it possible that the tremendous short interest is actually a sign of extraordinarily high naked call volume?

    Most of you are aware that when you own a call spread you always have short calls as part of that spread. It is important to be aware there is always the possibility of having those short calls assigned if they are in the money. When short calls are assigned, you will have to sell the stock to the holder of those call options and if you do not already own the stocks, you will have to short sell the stocks and end up with a short stock position. If you do not have the cash margin to hold the short stock position, your broker would automatically liquidate the short stock position immediately in the open market. Of course your account would receive full value of the short calls that were assigned. You would then have the option to hold onto the long calls by themselves or sell them in the market. You could also continue to hold the long calls and go into the market and sell some more OTM call options. It really is no big deal. I never worry about it and it rarely happens.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I would edit my comment to add this post, however, I don't seem to have the right permissions. Does anyone have any thoughts on this? I an not very well versed in how options work, aside from the definition of and method for using Calls, and Puts, and an understanding of what a naked put and naked call is. I have no understanding of the mechanisms involved in how these things work, aside from that Hedge Funds and institutions tend to be the issuers of puts and calls, as they tend to have the highest volume positions and tend to use these things as mechanisms for hedging. Could the insanely high short interest be a sign that some major institutions are engaged in very high selling of naked calls to produce a short squeeze or something completely different? With 27% of the float (Or about 27million shares) owned by Elon Musk, about 7% or 7million shares owned by other insiders, and around 37million shares or 35% (owned by institutions) and about 18million or about 15% owned by mutual funds (Who don't usually short as a matter of practice) and 15% held short by retail investors or funds too small to be forced to report. It is possible and likely that half of the institutional holders have hedged their long positions, and that retail holders are either long naked calls with the expectation of tremendous gains,

    In short, is is possible that the institutional holders are 50% hedged? In short, is it possible that via straddles, (Where they sell go long and short) funds have sold calls against half of their positions and puts against the other half? Is it possible that the 15% held via retail is actually much higher via derivatives? In short, conceivably, 8-9% of the retail that is long may have sold puts and also purchased calls from institutions?

    My overall question in simple English. Is it possible that due to some sort of accident or abuse of international rules on the selling of naked puts, (Which I think are illegal in the USA?), the institutions have screwed over the retail investors that have purchased naked puts resulting in the short interest rising to insane levels? Basically, the institutions are short as a hedge, and have hedged by selling puts to retail investors which may be shorting under the assumption that Tesla will drop to 0. Basically, the short interest is not retail (as that would cost way too much to have sustained this long), with the risk not justifying the return. It is institutions taking advantage of the interest for calls and puts among retail investors?

    I have no clue if what I've said makes sense. Anyone with a better understanding of options care to shed some light on this?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ditto. But it may be a possibility. Maybe Citizen-T can comment.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    @thedrinkerofkoolaid:
    Even though it's a little bit difficult to exactly follow your train of thought, I think I get what you mean and what you are asking. And it's not a stupid question and I would love for some of the people here with a lot of insight to comment on it. I have myself struggeled with the fact that it would seem that the short interest i >50% of what we could call the "actual free float" - i.e. the number of shares outstanding which are NOT owned by Mr. Musk, other insiders, big institutions and big mutual funds. I wouldn't know though if it's correct to assume that "mutual funds don't short by principle" but I would think that in realilty it's quite unlikely that mutual funds would take a big short position in such a volatile stock. So I have asked myself the same question that you are asking: Who is actually shorting the almost 30 million shares that are shorted? Are these shares shorted for the reason you would normally think, or is it a kind of artificial situation (like the one you are describing/implying)? None the less, the short interest is hughe and if (when) the time comes that the stock climbs higher these positions will need to be covered.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am going to jump in here with my shorting conspiracy theory. I won't be offended by scoffing, or pointing out something basic I'm ignorant about.

    it is very possible to me that the shorting has been done by a group entrenched in the existing oil/ICE standard.

    as one possible example, the 6 supermajor oil companies are said to have earned $1 trillion dollars over the last decade. earned, not revenues.

    there are other possible groups (OPEC, or more generally, oil producers, sovereign wealth funds of these countries, even individuals worth billions from these industries... in places like the middle east, Russia, south america..., even the behemoth automakers).

    taking the 6 supermajors as an example. if you earn something like a $1 trillion in a decade, what is there really to lose in shorting say 20 million shares of Tesla. if you lose $15 per share shorting, that's $300 million... or 0.3% of a year's profits, 0.03% of a decades profits.

    clearly they have an economic interest in ICE not giving way to an alternative tech, and clearly such a loss is nominal... but how would shorting be an effective way of protecting turf for these companies?

    consider the past couple of months for Tesla. Everyone knew they might have enough cash to get to profitability, but it was close. Elon even allowed that a secondary was in consideration during the last quarterly call (though I think he emphasized this was more about optimizing investment in Model X and G3 than fear of running out of cash in Model S launch).

    anyway, we all know the fact is there has been a secondary.

    by shorting and putting downward pressure on the stock price, the offering price of the secondary was lower than it might otherwise have been.

    that cost Tesla some cash on hand, but it could have been worse.

    Fisker Karma has had their government loan frozen for not meeting milestones. beyond lowering the secondary price, shorting could have made it difficult to get a secondary at any kind of palatable price, or perhaps not even at all. consider the clear Tesla bashing we have seen in various reporting, blog posts, and even from the Republican nominee (though in his case bashing might be too extreme a word). My point is if the tandem of a low stock price from shorting and attempts to paint Tesla as "Solyndra on Wheels" had a large enough impact, Tesla's DOE loan could have been frozen as well (by blocking the path to a secondary). Tesla's loans has covenants, which include financial ratios... I imagine ratios of cash and loans outstanding are part of these covenants.

    so even if it was unlikely for all the dominoes to fall your way, if you're prime goal was protecting your profits, and you make $100 billion a year, wouldn't you risk several hundred million dollars to potentially pull out the lifeline of the $450 million loan Tesla has? doing so could end Tesla, or certainly put any kind of Gen3 considerably further out into the future. even falling short of such a direct hit, such a short position investment to hurt Tesla and negative press could put major clouds over the company in public and slow down the opening of public consciousness to their coming product (if "swiftboating" works in politics why not business... it's really about tarring public perception).

    another piece. even short of the loan being frozen on Tesla, an interested party would have another payout based on shorting combined with negative press. it could be part of a broader push to characterize battery powered cars as liberal, fantasy fluff. this could pave an easier path to a new administration revoking the $7500 EV credit. again, while this wouldn't necessarily kill Tesla, it would certainly slow down the adoption of EVs. this last pathway of a conspiracy is consistant with Romney calling Tesla a loser, and criticizing the government supporting the fostering of new technologies by direct assistance to companies (the loans which he called an investment).

    I'll give one final reason for the idea of a conspiracy. shorting a stock is risky. when you go long you can lose your investment. when you short, there's no limit to your potential losses (I guess as much rope as your broker offers to hang yourself). I understand that Tesla could fail, and that draws the attention of shorts. at the same time, if Tesla does succeed, it could be spectacular success- a tremendous disincentive to short (think Elon's "Tsunami of pain," "very unwise" comments). based on normal motivations and risks regarding shorting it just doesn't make sense that Tesla would be the most shorted company in the market. this would be consistant with an abnormal motivation for shorting.

    anyway, I realize this is a super long post, but I just thought I'd throw this out here as we eagerly look forward to Monday's call... and, oh yeah, an election too.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    SteveG3, I love conspiracy theories and do think that there's some meat to yours!

    One other impact that I can think of if TSLA stays in this zone for a long time: attrition of key employees. Elon himself has said that, much like many other Silicon Valley companies, Tesla employees do not get great salaries but get good stock option grants. Tech firms around here cannot hold onto good engineers for too long if the stock doesn't do very well during a typical 1-4 year vesting cycle even if employees believe in Tesla's mission.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Does anyone know what time the earnings call takes place on Monday morning?

    EDIT: Thanks GG, I didn't realize there was another TSLA investor thread I should be looking for.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    5 am Pacific: TSLA Investor News - Page 4
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    8 am ET.
    You can listen to it here: Tesla - Events Presentations
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Lets see how good is a crystal ball of the street... And they got revenue prediction down to $10k:cool:

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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I can find plenty of shorts without resorting to conspiracy theories. Hedge funds probably make up the bulk of the shorts. By their nature they are drawn to volatile stocks and Tesla's float is pretty tiny compared to the amount of cash many of those funds command.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Q3 2012 Shareholder Letter is out:

    http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/2155426097x0x611344/42cb80fa-6f64-4e48-93ff-2da29de21acc/Q3%202012%20Shareholder%20Letter%20Final.pdf

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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    More quotes:

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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Missed estimates by $0.02, I don't think it will significantly affect share price, maybe not at all considering the other positive announcements.
    I thought this was odd though:
    Does that mean the 60 kWh car charges at a slower rate?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I read this as a very strong quarter. what caught my eye:

    over 200 cars produced last week
    this rate is at threshold for positive operating cash flow

    in a month expect 400/week production rate
    toward the end of the quarter positive free cash flow (includes capital expenditures)

    resolved a myriad of supply chain issues

    confident in 2,500-3,000 Q4 deliveries, 20,000 in 2013

    reaffirming 25% gross margin target for 2013

    I also like how they highlighted the supercharger network, and the free use. seems they have hopes that this will get some free word of mouth in coverage of the earnings announcement. announced capability to drive Boston to D.C. expected online next month. I think tangibility of supercharger buildup will make a big difference in consumer receptivity to model S.

    of course, they did miss by $.02, details on call may or may not seem as positive as release, and a less Tesla friendly administration may be elected tomorrow, but all in all sounds like quite strong improvement through the quarter regardless of stock movement today, or this week.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Or that it can't charge as long at that rate, perhaps. (Or both.)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think this reflects the fact that once a battery on charge reaches 50% SOC, the Supercharger starts slowing the rate of charge to protect the battery. I.e., the only way to gain 165 miles of range in 30 minutes is to start the charge with an 85kWh battery at 0% SOC. With any other combination of battery capacity and SOC the charging rate starts to drop in less than 30 minutes, hence the 'up to 165 miles of range in 30 minutes' caveat.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I wouldn't think the charger starts cutting back as early as 50% SOC, do we have evidence of that?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was reading between the lines and should have said 'approximately 50%', but I remember reading real world reports of Supercharger users who experienced the tailing off of charge rate. Will do a forum search and report back.

    Updated post:

    The link below is to a blog post by a new owner who took factory delivery of his S and drove back to LA using the Supercharger network. It is most likely the same event the Q3 letter references.

    From Fremont to LA, SuperCharging all the way - Blogs - Tesla Motors Club - Enthusiasts & Owners Forum
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Live Webcast only for registered user?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Anyone can register.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Wake up Elon! :wink:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Gen3 vehicle expected to have access to supercharger network!

    - - - Updated - - -

    Someone should have given Elon a RedBull or something, way too low key. I had trouble hearing many of the answers.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I found it re-assuring that the information he gave was effortlessly consistent. ;)

    Yes, and expected for "most" future vehicles. And since he also said that, to makes sense, it requires a range of 200+ miles (@ 55 mph), we should be able to conclude that "most" Gen3s are expected to have a 200+ mile range.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Elon did sound a bit sleepy, perhaps added to his natural tendency to just say what's on his mind :smile:

    this is from my notes, so I won't put in quotes, but I was quite encouraged as I heard him essentially say...

    Recently I had stated Tesla is at a critical point in its survival, the valley of death people refer to. I feel we're through that valley. I feel Tesla's really past the point of high risk.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Any production numbers shared, besides rate?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Will tesla need to raise more cash? Looks like their buffer is getting low.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    300 million is low?

    From the shareholder letter.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If they can sustain a 200-400/week production and delivery rate, and see a decent profit margin, then their drain on cash for Q4 should go to zero, and Q1 go positive. So I say no.
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