Thứ Sáu, 28 tháng 10, 2016

TSLA Investor Discussions part 25

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, I can probably put my buy in the category "bad trades". I honestly didn't expect the effect of the Morgan Stanley upgrade to last only for one day. When they downgraded the stock last year the stock stayed down for weeks. Apparently a downgrade has more lasting impact than an upgrade...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What effect will a secondary offering have on the stock price? From the recent interviews that Elon has been giving it sounds like an option that they are seriously considering.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You almost never want to be buying into an already rising stock. At that point most of the good news is already baked in. Usually once its up a few points the fast money will exit and you can buy the dip.

    Still though, if you hold the stock $31 isn't a bad entry point. The company looks to be worth a lot more than that, but the downside risks of a potential share dilution are still holding down the price. Plus an outright failure of the product is still a possibility which could ruin Tesla. That is a big problem as long as they only have a single product.

    - - - Updated - - -

    A secondary offering would dilute the value of your shares. The magnitude of the effect is dependent on how much money they need to raise, and the terms they have to raise it under. If Tesla goes to the table at the edge of failure the money folks can hold a gun to their head and (as an example) offer $200 million in cash for half the company.

    If Tesla is not in danger of failing, but just needs cash to finance new R&D for future products, the leverage shifts to Tesla and a similar raise might only cost ~5-10% of the company. However, that sort of transaction might ultimately cause the stock to rise in spite of the dilution because it would be adding value to the company under favorable terms.

    Regardless, Tesla badly needs to execute on the manufacturing end (and thus improve their balance sheet) if they want to avoid getting raped when or if they go to raise capital.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You have to remember that Elon was asked this today on Bloomberg TV. We're 9 days from the end of the quarter so there's absolutely no way he could confirm or deny it when asked; if it's a possibility he obviously had to leave that hanging and if it's off the table saying so would have been major news because he had said at the end of Q2 that it was "possible but not necessary right now". Under the circumstances he gave the best answer he could.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not me. I never go to sites like that. If stock pickers could really pick stocks, they'd be too busy making millions to write articles telling other folks what stocks to buy.

    As for a secondary offering, I'd probably buy in, on the theory that money paid for new stock actually goes to the company. Assuming such a secondary offering is open to the public.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I (and many others) would say every day other car companies are busy producing outdated gas-cars is a good day for Tesla. Why the other car companies are so far behind beats me, and it`s primarily a big advantage for Tesla. There`s a reason why people who get the electric experience never want to go back to gasoline cars.
    Stockwise I`m not quite sure. There are still a lot of people out there who don`t know how brilliant EVs are, and those people might assume that it`s a setback for EVs and a proof of EVs still not having good enough technology. But as long as Tesla proves this assumption wrong, it`s positive for the stock long term.

    Maybe hybrids are such money-makers for Toyota that they try to hold back the development of EVs? Very bad strategy indeed, but this is why good companies can fail (i.e. Kodak) and make it easy for new companies to emerge and become future market leaders.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was a little concerned for TSLA initially given the RAV4-EV connection but, as Oyvind said, such short-sighted thinking by 'legacy' carmakers can only be good news for upstarts such as Tesla. We see this kind of pattern in the software world time and again; it's just that Tesla's disruptive ways will take a lot longer to move the needle. I'm holding tight onto TSLA.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You need to remember who actually buys Toyotas--it's the dealers. Dealers do not want electric cars. They barely want hybrids but at least the hybrids have an expensive gas engine to maintain and they can replace expensive hybrid parts when there's not need to do so because most consumers are uninformed, so they've learned to live with it--but no dealer will push a hybrid over an ICE car.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    OK, folks - the announcement has happened. 6 charging locations today covering most of CA below 200 miles above Folsom. A bunch more going across most of the US within 2 years, and all of US and lower Canada within 5 years. Solar panels, excess juice goes back into the grid, and charging is free for Model S's capable of supercharging.

    Stock closed at $30.66 today. Two questions to show your predictive prowess:
    1) What will the stock open at tomorrow?
    2) What will the high tomorrow be?
    3) What will the low tomorrow be?

    Answers must be posted before 6:30 AM PDT (9:30AM EDT) tomorrow.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    As usual I haven't a clue. It will depend on whether it gets on the broadcasts in Europe tonight. For the U.S, will it be on the 10:00 pm news?

    All I can say it, the charger looks the stylization of a rocket. Anyone going by one of those locations will be scratching their heads and asking "What the #@%& is that?" If they don't know about Tesla yet, a lot more are going to know about it now.

    I can see why they had the unveiling at night.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Stock will most likely drop below 29.00 by the end of the Wednesday.

    But!!! While I would expect some downward pressure because of the ppl trying to buy shares before announcement and then getting rid of them in next few days... Short term fluctuations could force price to go upward or downward regardless of Supercharger announcement (doesn't matter what was it). So it is still mostly gamble at this point. Same forces that make price go up or down without any announcements during regular trading days would play. And I believe they are more powerful then "impression" from this "news". Anyhow, market would feel some downward pressure from ppl trying to gamble on this news.... But do not expect it to be a big one.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have no clue! I think this will make the Stock go up a lot over the long term as it will introduce and legitimize Tesla when they complete a coast to coast network. There is also already a significant number of potential customers who just found out they can make the one long trip they make every year with a 65kw Model S. It may not be tomorrow but I think this will drive the stock much higher :). To clarify I think it will be a game changer. Genius to make it Free!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If I just look at myself, this announcement helps me justify the 60kWh pack versus the 40--just knowing you can get almost anywhere if needed.

    If many people think like me, the average sales price of the Model S will be somewhere in the high $70k / low $80k, perhaps prompting some analyst to recalculate their revenue forecast for Tesla.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    and you travel for 'free'
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Establishing this network reminds me of Apples iPhone and its ecosystem a few years ago. The car itself is extraordinary, but by creating this network Tesla leaves the competitors behind. And yes, it will clearly reduce range anxiety, and make the cheaper versions (excl. 40kw) of the Model S more attractive. And that`s the key to mass adoption ("affordable" and free of clear disadvantages :).

    The only thing that worries me about a proprietary charging network is the fact that it will easily work in the US if deployed strategically and fast, but that`s not gonna happen in Norway or Europe. This means that Tesla needs to explore other alternatives in Europe, which means the car is going to be delayed and not benefit from the same infrastructure you guys will get.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You mean less attractive since the 40 kWh car can't use these superchargers.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The stock is up 2 % in the European market while the markets in general are heading slightly down.

    My guesses would be:
    a) 31.50
    b) 32.20
    c) 30.50

    But don't trade on these -
    I am wrong most of the time
    and my trading strategy
    does not require I am right.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Tesla just announced the issue of new stock.

    See the SEC documents.
    http://ir.teslamotors.com/common/download/download.cfm?companyID=ABEA-4CW8X0&fileid=S1193125-12-402291&filekey=1318605&filename=1193125-12-402291.pdf

    - - - Updated - - -

    Tesla published a current report.

    - lower number of delivered vehicles in Q3
    - revenue in Q3 $44 to $46 M
    - negative gross margin in Q3 because of fewer vehicles delivered AND lower than expected payments from the Daimler deal
    - DOE loan is fully drawn
    - 255 model S produced as of Sept. 23
    - 77 of them during the last week
    - delivery expected: 200-225 vehicles in Q3 and 2,500 to 3,000 in Q4

    Quite some news in there.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Great information on Tesla.

    Thanks for posting link. Today's market will be very interesting.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    > delivery expected: 200-225 vehicles in Q3 and 2,500 to 3,000 in Q4

    That's about half their earlier estimates for Q3, so ouch. I saw a separate news item saying they expected to be over 20,000 cars in 2013.

    Couldn't find any info on pricing of the offering - will it simply be at market price?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    -13% in premarket now...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    As Johann noted, Tesla filed an 8-K yesterday, found HERE.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What an overreactioon!


    I think there are some option traders makin serious money with tesla stock. 15% drop in premarket is simply too much...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yup interesting, no huge surprises in there although a few small ones which throw my spreadsheet a curve ball. (The most annoying thing is that JP will have a field day! :rolleyes:)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sorry, yes :) Cheaper, not cheapest was what I should`ve written.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    One surprise is the mention of the increase in the cancellation rate:

    Is it really the time between reserving and locking down, or is it the change in information made available to people between reserving and locking down?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    WTF-
    are they broke?

    After reading the 8-K PDF it almost sounds as if they searching for a justification to close shop...it almost sounds as if they are shorting their own stock in order to make some profit
    123 batteries anyone?
    :confused::confused::confused:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I strongly disagree with that assessment. Tesla Motors is projecting that they will be cash-squeezed by March 31, 2013 if they maintain their current burn rate. After hearing Elon last night, it's clear that he's in "damn the torpedoes, full-speed ahead!" mode, and he believes that there are enough investors who will agree to give him the money he needs to continue building cars, developing new cars, and building out a full-scale infrastructure.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Indeed. 8-Ks always sound like this. When you spend a few hours thinking of and writing down everything that could possibly go wrong, it doesn't usually come out sounding that happy.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think that Elon is right. Electric cars are the in the future of mankind. No doubt about it. And on this respect Tesla is ahead of other brands.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sort of missed every target possible. Lower Q3 deliveries than 500, which itself was lowered from 1000. Lower revenue. Lower Q4 targets. That all sounds pretty terrible. Quite a bit worse than I envisioned holding onto my stock to buy P2840 at the end of the year. If the stock takes a beating and stays beat until next year, my life is going to get interesting as I'll be at a serious net loss on the stock and won't be able to buy the car I've locked in.

    I knew it was a risk, but I really didn't envision the numbers getting that bad.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is going to be a fun day. Most of this was built into the MS report
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looks like they are still ahead of what Morgan Stanley is looking for, and they have a $50 price target, remember? Don't make any rash decisions today guys. We've know this was coming for at least a year now, don't get caught up in the moment.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    We've known they would miss Q3 and Q4 targets for a year?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not the targets but the inherent risks the company faces
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hello all!

    Back from a fun ride...

    Man this thing is getting interesting :) Got an order for some more this morning.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No, the secondary offering. They started talking about that a long time ago.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So they will issue 4.35M stock thereby diluting the current stock by only about 4%? Then it says they will raise $150M selling stock - is that the 4.35 million stocks? That works out to a price of about $34.50 per share... who's gonna pay that?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Seems like a buying opportunity to me. I'd rather have a company miss earnings because they adhered to quality rather than quantity.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Oh yes that too. I actually didn't think they'd need it but I know Elon put the cards on the table a while ago.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not a time for rash decisions indeed. Holding on tight at my position that averages out in the $29-something range. No powder left though to jump in on the new offering.

    Halfway happy to hear of some cancellations (hopefully, less than P 1,620 range) to offset the slow rampup so that I can get my car this year...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Given where the stock is at right now ($28.48), it's actually not that bad. We were in the $27 range just three weeks ago.

    I think today has two forces playing, good news from Supercharger Network announcement and bad news from the 8-K. They may have been very smart to time these together, we'll see.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    With all the gobbledegook in the report, I didn't see anything about what I have to do to get in on this. Or will it all be bought by brokers and put onto the general market?

    I'd say it's both. Some folks have reported that the new information has pushed the cost over their threshold, but I'll bet there are people who just changed their minds in the long interval, either because their own circumstances changed, or because they've decided on a different EV instead. There's Model X in a year, there's Leaf and iMiev and other choices.

    Short-term gamble on a volatile stock is a very risky way to make money for a big purchase. Still, you might get lucky.

    The statement says that Elon will buy 33,311 shares for a million dollars, which comes out to $30.02 per share. I'd buy 50 shares at that price if the money goes directly to Tesla. If the shares just go onto the market, I might wait and see what the price does and try to buy on a dip.

    So, what does one do to buy into this new issue?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Before they had talked about raising cash to cover a) a cash cushion or, more likely it seemed at the last CC, b) to accelerate Model X R&D.

    Given the lowered sales for 2012, is this offering needed for cash? Or can it be used for R&D? It seems likely the weight is shifting towards (a).

    Holding here, while the end of 2012 may be skating thin financially, the company itself has had a tremendous 2012 with many pieces coming together for a bright 2013 and on.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Have to say that the writing was on the wall that Tesla wasn't gonna hit its delivery targets, so this comes as no surprise. But long term that shouldn't change much as long as the delays are for good reason (e.g. Improved quality) and that they quickly rectify it and hit full capacity within the next 3 months.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Buy the car anyway as a hedge on the stock, if the company fails all cars produced will sharply increase in value off setting an equal weight in stock.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Damn I need more cash to buy more!!!! I already threw everything I had in.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    End of Q2 reservation level was 11,500. The new 8K says 2600 reservations taken in Q3, which should bring us to 14,100, but it was only 13,250 (8K reported 13,000 plus 250 delivered cars).

    So, that's about 850 cancellations out of about 6000 people asked to configure (according to TMC thread). That's about a 15% cancellation rate. Tesla says the rate will decrease.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So the stock drops $2 pre market because of lower 3rd quarter / 2012 production. But no mention about the Superchargers as far as I can see in stock news items. I would think the fact that with a Tesla you can travel free across the entire US in a couple of years( or many local places depending on where you live) I plan on taking many Model S vacations. Money spent on those trips wont be on GAS and maybe I will help local economies out a little
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There�s a massive difference between a cushion and a probably life saving infusion of cash.

    The sole content of this 8-K document is something that in a professional, obliging PR should�ve been presented mandadory somewhere around mid 2010, when customers where starting to invest both in the cars and in the stock.

    To present this now, in the midst of turmoil, seems a) a forced act by the SEC/DOE or b) a sheer act of desperation in the manner of a justification (we told You so, it�s not up to us if we fail).
    Either way having the last word:biggrin:

    So either Bob Lutz was right back then, we faced a nightmare of execution, or they got screwed by the suppliers/subcontractors at this time.

    In any way, it seems that the DOE loan is much more critical to their as they always evoked.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There's no revenue from the superchargers and they're an initial outlay of money. Cars are revenue and they lowered the shipping targets, so less revenue.

    Long term, the superchargers are good, but you can look at Tesla needing more money, spending on super chargers, and selling fewer cars than projected and wonder if Tesla will live long enough for the super chargers to get used. I'm hopeful, but I think this is 3 or 4 quarters in a row of missed numbers?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Here's the information I see released since 11 eastern last night:

    1. Supercharge Network. Free. Plan in two years near full country coverage. Solar Powered. Unofficial indications supercharging will not harm battery. Very big plus.

    2. Secondary to raise $125-150 million. Previously disclosed as a possibility. Provides cushion for slower production to ensure quality. Pending a reasonable price of shares in secondary neutral to positive.

    3. Potential future additional secondary due to requirements of DOE loan, i.e. not simply a choice Tesla makes of its own. Timeframe if required would seem to be anywhere from 12-18 months from now. While Tesla may be able to renegotiate with DOE and avoid another secondary, I see this as negative news... the fact of unanticipated capital raise (to me anyhow), and the fact that it would be due to bumping into required ratios of loan. This will take some time to get perspective on how much of a negative it is.

    4. Deliveries 200+ Q3, 2500-3000 Q4. Many expected, but some will make case to expect numbers to come down more. Filing stated this represents 4 to 5 weeks behind schedule, rather modest. Neutral to somewhat negative.

    5. Reiteration of 20,000+ 2013 deliveries. Reassuring, somewhat offsets item 4.

    To me long-term super charger very good, but issue of DOE possibly requiring another secondary has some negative overhang. Supercharger great attraction for new customers, DOE issue would affect confidence in viability of Tesla (bit early to get perspective if just a tiny smudge or something that will create material overhang), and with that consumer confidence. So overall my mind says long-term nice improvement in past day, but my gut says, be cautious re developing perception of company�s financial health as news is digested.

    Anyone see any other major issues? Overall sense of long-term impact of past day?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Didn't Elon say the Superchargers were free for 85's and a nominal fee for 65's?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The Supercharger is nice but when a start up is struggling to meet production goals it's going to be on the forefront of any other news. Tesla desperately needs to get these Model S' out and any failure to do that is going to shake investor confidence even on the heels of the Supercharger network news.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I heard him to say that there might be an upfront charge for 60kWhs, but I'm quite sure that there will be no usage fee. A usage fee would require Tesla to set up a complicated tracking-and-billing system that would be expensive and cumbersome.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So is everybody still long on Tesla? What effect will this news have on their ability to pay back the DOE loans and stay solvent as a company?

    I really want to stay long on Tesla but may wait till Q2 2013 before I pick up any more shares. We need to see if they can hit their production target and their margins of 20%.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There could be potential smaller revenue streams with the superchargers to help offset the costs:
    1. Tesla could contact local area businesses to see if they would be willing to contribute to the cost/maintenance etc in return for getting customers. This way the local businesses would have an affluent customer base to buy their goods or services.
    2. potential for advertisements at kiosk /wifi? - these are already on gas pumps.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What? Yes, of course we are still long. As SteveG3 laid out so nicely, the news from the past 24 hours is net positive. The 8K says that Tesla is working with the DOE on a plan to repay the loan early, does that sound like a company that is concerned about being able to pay the loan back and stay solvent?

    I too was caught of guard by the comment about needing to do another secondary to meet the terms of the DOE loan. This is interesting, I wonder what has changed in the plan for 2013 that brought this about. 5 weeks of production delay isn't to blame here. Accelerated GenIII maybe?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm just wondering if I should buy another 50 shares right now at about 28, or wait for the secondary offering.

    Hey, Citizen-T and our other resident chart experts, what do you think?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The most significant piece of news I heard last night (from a short-term stock play POV) is that there will be a piece on Tesla in the Sunday NY Times. I expect that this will be a very positive piece, particularly about long-distance driving. All the stock brokers can read the piece on Sunday and then buy stock on Monday.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    actually no, they received a wakeup call from the DOE

    Tesla Told to Speed Repayment of U.S. Electric-Car Loan - Bloomberg
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Why do I get the feeling that JP is gloating right now. :mad:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Let's try to put today's TSLA price movement into perspective:

    - TSLA has been a very volatile stock all along
    - the news that came out today will be considered bad news by the Street
    - the markets do not like secondary offerings
    - the markets do not like companies missing their targets: production, revenue, margin - all were missed

    Taking these factors into account, I am very surprised TSLA lost only 10% in trading today (27.84 as of this writing)

    To me - that is good news; I am buying more shares
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I just bought another 300 shares, I think this is positive area, still long just adding to the bundle.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That article doesn't give me that impression at all. It clearly states Tesla has made all repayments on time and in full to this point and they are merely discussing the possibility of some changes due to the fact it's 4 years down the road and times have changed as has the financial position of Tesla. The article clearly states that Tesla is wanting to pay back the full amount in less than the original 10-year plan. So 'wakeup call'? I think not.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No. The only real news thats off the reservation is the possibility of another secondary offering.

    Aside from the "news" my problem is with what my analysis shows. Tesla has been producing ~80 cars per day for the last couple of weeks, and it was clear that 250 deliveries was their upper limit for this quarter for at least that long. However, it was also clear that if they had wanted to make their goal of ~5000 units for the year, they would need to double production, and then double it again just to get to 320 units/week and even then they really would need to get to 400-500/week to get to 5,000.

    Ok, fine, they weren't able to do that.

    However, their new guidance is projecting an average production of ~230/week (assuming 3,000 cars) for Q4 which is well short of the 400/week they need for 2013 if they want to make 20,000 cars. That concerns me because that indicates an extremely shallow ramp up. They still indicate that they intend to get to 400/week by the end of the year but its not clear why an additional two or three months of work will allow them to do so. There seems to be a lot of emphasis on supplier problems, so obviously they need the time to increase capacity at the supplier level, but until they do so this issue is going to be a knife at their throat moving forward.

    - - - Updated - - -

    +1 for the short term.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Let's hope it decreases. It seems more than a few reservation holders bought stock hoping it would rise enough to help pay for the car. It doesn't look like it's going to happen any time soon.

    As they cancel, we'll get a clearer picture of the true demand for these cars.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Dow drops 100 after Fed official's warning - Yahoo! News
    Maybe today's drop has nothing to do with Tesla at all.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest


    It's a precursor to a wake up call. Prior to this morning's announcement, the DOE was aware of Tesla's difficulty in raising revenue so they wanted Tesla to document how the loan will be paid off. They want some reassurance that everything is under control. The DOE doesn't want another Solyndra on their hands.


    "Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA), which received $465 million in U.S. Energy Department loans to develop electric cars, has been told by the agency to devise a speedier repayment schedule after getting a waiver on existing terms."


    A ray of hope for Tesla is "...DOE obviously will not do anything to force us to pay while in the process injuring us.�
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm working on it...they don't look good. I think we could see $26, maybe soon. Very bad timing on this news, I wish they would have put some space between the positive news from the supercharger announcement and this. The up-trend that was starting to form when we broke through resistance is now nothing more than a fluke.

    Bad trade number 3 going in my journal today. Bad news got me again.

    All is not lost though, I did raise some cash at $32.50. Would have raised a lot more had I known the secondary was imminent. I don't know that tomorrow is the time to buy. This looks like it could go on for a while, and with the supercharger announcement behind us, there's nothing on the horizon to help us change direction.

    IDK, maybe they finally learned to low-ball it over there at Tesla and that they end up delivering 4k cars in Q4. If anyone sees something out there that can turn this ship around, please point me to it.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The Model S is pretty sweet and reviews are still all pretty + and owner experiences have been +++ I'd buy 2 If I could (And I think they will have little trouble supplying enough once they have all of their production quirks ironed out - like Octoberish)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    As I said earlier, I think Monday will be an up day, following on the expected NYT article on Sunday. If I were in to short-term trading and wanted to expand my position, I'd be watching market dynamics closely over the next couple of days, perhaps with a standing order somewhere in the low 26s.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Right there with you, but I'm going to watch closely tomorrow and Thursday for a roller coaster ride as it could drop into the $24 range given this news: 1,200 Tesla Vehicle Purchase Cancellations: Video - Bloomberg
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That has to be one of the shallowest pieces of "analysis" I've ever heard. People get paid for doing this stuff? Really?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Oh man classic example of people not knowing what they are talking about. Lol
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Bloomberg has been consistently negative on Tesla for the last year that I've paid attention to the stock. Even JP has deeper (though still flawed) analysis than they do.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Don�t conquer facts by moods-

    the question remains:
    They are by this day still @ 10 cars/day and "seem" already facing a battlefield with the suppliers.
    The question is WHY they didn�t play it safe the last 6 months, instead of luring even more people in.


    On another note:
    Daimler seems reluctant too, remember the official confirmation for Musks drivetrain hype didn�t come yet?
    Maybe it�s the Daimler supplier parts which are the root of TSLAs trouble?
    When Daimler announced that the next Smart EV will host batteries of an Daimler/Bosch venture, there was another hint.
    Daimler shurely knows more on this little, dirty game, since with Dr.Kohler on Teslas board, they saw it coming and could have done something.

    Toyota too, literally pulled the plug on their partnership, stating they will pull out from fully electrical cars and instead fully focusing on hybrids.
    Guess the RA4 "success" was mainly press driven then.

    For those big players Tesla is just a thinktank, a blueprint for challenging, potentially brand affecting technology,a lab for stuff unmanageable in their daily politically auto corporate hell.
    http://www.supplierpark.eu/Daimler-Tesla-partnerschaft.jpg

    How can You ramp up at all then ?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The thing about the 10 per day that bothers me is that it is achieved working the equivalent of 2 shifts and 7 days. That cannot be sustainable, considering the amount of OT + mfg costs of running those shops all that time over. From my understanding, the high ramp numbers (80/day, 400/week) were all based on 1 shift and 5 days a week. That's a big jump without adding some days in the week somewhere.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I believe in Tesla. I believe that they'll succeed in the long run. But I also think it's going to be a struggle to overcome all the obstacles that folks here and elsewhere have pointed out. A number of people have cancelled their Model S order; some because the price was already at their personal budget limit and it crept over, some because they decided a Model X suits them better, some because their personal finances or life circumstances changed.

    But I've not heard of anybody who cancelled their order because they decided it was not a great car. I've heard of nobody who drove one and didn't love it. I've heard of no Roadster owner who's been dissatisfied with their car unless it was just too small for their needs and not "practical." A sports car is never "practical."

    What I do not know, and in fact have not the vaguest idea about, is what's a fair, solid valuation of the stock or how the market will bid it up or down and by how much, on all the news, misperceptions, misgivings, national or global financial concerns, etc., etc., etc. And since I have no idea about all this, and still believe Tesla has a long hard road ahead, I do not expect quick profits. So I am not concerned about the price of the stock except when I start thinking about buying some more. Then I'd like to buy low. Which I almost always fail to do. Otherwise I'd like to buy in the manner that most benefits Tesla, because I like what they are doing. But I have no idea what that is, either: Wait for the public offering so that they money goes directly to them? Or buy now, which would exert (infinitesimal) upward pressure on the price so that they could charge more for the public offering?

    Or I could resist the temptation and be happy with my 200 shares.

    I have a standing limit order for 50 more. That was at 23, but I raised it to 24. I wonder what price the stock-knowledgeable folks think is a good price but still possible. What's the lowest price you'd give it a 90% chance of dropping to before it finally starts to rise permanently? Or what's the lowest price you think it will hit over the course of the next two years? Or maybe that's a totally unfair question because anybody that knew that could get rich.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The fact that Tesla has to have a stock offering in order to meet changes in the terms of the DOE loan is a short term blemish for the stock. This is an absolute buying opportunity and the bottom of this flash will be a great time to get into the stock, increase holdings or to average down the cost basis for Tesla. The fact remains that Tesla and Elon Musk expect to be in the black in 2013. That time will come and when wall street sees that Tesla is a profitable entity, the stock price rises sharply. The perceived concept that a new automobile manufacturing company in a very tough industry is doomed from the outset goes out the window. The gross margin numbers per unit becomes a huge focus after profitability is attained in 2013 and Tesla comes out looking like a leader in the automotive industry.

    This is just a small downside blip that was unexpected due to the change in the playing field provided by the DOE. Tesla is by no means in trouble...they are just playing their hand smartly.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Interpret with caution, I say.

    I agree with what Jonas stated in the MSNBC article about Tesla getting it right the first time. In my opinion, they absolutely have to get it right the first time. If the Model S is significantly problematic in the first year, I'd say that Tesla would be finished and the Model S would be a collector's item. Drawing from stock is a foreseeable response to the slower than expected income generation.

    I am not sure that the drop deferments and cancellations are significant enough at this point: Tesla would simply move on to the next reservation holder. With 13,000 in the queue, Tesla could still meet its 5000 production goal even if half of reservation holders cancelled or deferred. That's not the issue.

    I just hope the suppliers will be able to ramp up and that the suppliers get it right (or Tesla gets it right, depending on your perspective); this will allow Tesla to ramp up.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Agree.

    Given the reviews thus far, the Model S will come out on top. I think mixed in that potential success will be whether Tesla improves its PR with reservation holders. If it comes out of the gate solidly, there will be no long-term problems. If it comes out of the gate with blemishes, Tesla has problems.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't know enough about your situation, so take this with a grain of salt.

    If you are happy with the 200 shares you have, then I think you should be patient. Leave it and watch how things play out the next few days, $24 is not outside the realm of possibility. If you can split that into two separate buys, you might want to consider buying 20 shares at $26 and the other 30 at $24. That's what I would do, I never try to catch the bottom.

    You guys know what I'm going to say: buy on the way down, sell on the way up.

    Again, a lot of things to consider; but if it were my money, that's probably the strategy I'd employ.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    When Tesla delivers a car, that reservation disappears. Bloomberg ignored that, and so with 255 cars delivered last week, the number of cancellations is 255 less. Also, the reservation number given was a prediction for the end of the quarter, so there will be about another 80 cars delivered before the end of the quarter that Bloomberg isn't counting.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Is it just me who feels that we're back to normal....there was a storm in a teacup which lasted about 4 hours and now we're bumping along where we were two weeks ago and the usual low volumes. Deja vu anyone?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not to mention those who cancelled their Model S reservation and then placed a Model X reservation. Between the two models, I believe there are more than 25,000 reservation holders.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And those that bought Tesla stock to fund their purchase with profits thinking the stock value would be up much more than it is now. Now, they can't afford the car and have to cancel.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not just you. Me, too.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    But two weeks ago we didn't have this gloomy SEC filing news hanging over our heads. And if the broader market has begun a correction than TSLA may well be taken down for the ride. It's hard to feel good about the short term prospects of this stock. Unless Tesla magically surprises us and exceeds Q4 delivery estimates, there's little potential good news that can come out before the end of the year. But I do think Tesla has a compelling story in 2013.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree, I'm really wondering what the market will think of 3Q earnings in about a month.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This week's 8-K was a thorough spoiler for the 10-Q, so I doubt that there'll be much stock reaction to the Q3 numbers. The Q3 earnings call, though, could be interesting.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My advice to Tesla and Elon Musk: under promise and over deliver. So far it's been the opposite. With the latter, the surprises are almost always unpleasant. With the former strategy it would be a different case.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Can't agree here. How about third party 0-60 testing at 3.9 seconds?

    Huge.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's hard, they needed to make big promises when they were just a story stock to attract investors. It made sense to advertise what they thought was possible. I do agree though that it is time to start making the shift to a more conservative outlook, now that revenue is going to become the driving factor.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is all pure speculation. Tesla doesn't publish the number of actual cancellations, so nobody can claim to know that number.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Couldn't agree more. But that effects performance car buyers and much less so investors and Wall Street, who are looking at other "performance" measures concerning the company's financials and production goals, and less the car. Regarding the former, Tesla has been overly optimistic, which has hurt them when the optimism is not reflected in actual results.

    But it will be interesting to see what happens on Monday when after the NY Times article, which I assume will be favorable.

    To me the shorts and doubters are woefully underestimating the very high odds that ICE's are dodo birds and that Tesla is changing the conventional wisdom and assumptions. But of course, they don't have their money staked on the long-term. I hope Elon's right that they're in for some major hurt.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And while it doesn't help for people who just look at verifiable published numbers, there are dedicated Tesla supporters who concluded that the S is too expensive for their budget, and are chomping at the bit waiting to reserve a GenIII.

    Thanks. As I've said before, this is sort of a hobby stock for me. Not a significant part of my portfolio. But I love what the company is doing, and I believe they'll succeed in the long term. I lacked the foresight to buy Apple or Micro$oft in the early days. I think Tesla could be big like that in a decade or two. I just hope I'm still around to see it.

    Agreed on the short term. I think there are many obstacles to overcome along the way, and I think the market will change its perception slowly. But I also think that Tesla has the engineering skills and the management skills to pull it off, and a good lead in the sector. I do not agree with those who think that "as soon as <X> happens," the stock will skyrocket. But I do think the company will succeed, and that as it does the stock will rise.

    They overpromised on the production schedule, but not on the product. Everyone who's driven the car has been blown away by it. I flew to Seattle 15 months ago out of desperation. My EV aspirations were crumbling around me. My expectations for the Roadster were not high. I just wanted to see if it might be barely acceptable. Instead I found it to be the best car I'd ever driven. And I still feel the same way about my Roadster, in spite of a few imperfections. (Notably the uncomfortable seats.)

    On the product, Tesla over-delivers. And in the long run that's what matters. Customer satisfaction is what counts, not how rapidly they can ramp up production. Because the latter is transitory. The former is lasting.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Count me as a TSLA long that can't wait for stock appreciation, resv. #313X, but went to testdrive a Chevy Volt today. Yeah, I know it's not apples v apples, hybrid, smaller interior, but $20k less. My daily commute is less than 30 miles, so I would be oft amped, with only a reserve gallon of petrol sloshing around for months...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That's a good point. It would be nice if it's already priced in. But they still have to actually do the stock offering sometime this week right? 5% dilution should equal a 5% drop in share price but it doesn't always work that way.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have a Volt, which I love, but there are too many times when I have to exceed the battery range and run on gas, which, in principle, I hate to do. I'm one of those people who believes the sooner we rid ourselves of the current addiction to fossil fuels the better. I want to put my money where my mouth is.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It depends what they do with the money. If the money goes out to present stockholders as dividends, or to executives as bonuses, then the stock is diluted and share price should drop. But if the money is invested in the company, or is used to pay down a loan, then it should not affect stock price. Cash is an asset. The cash raised offsets the increase in the number of outstanding shares.

    (I held the same mistaken assumption until someone on here pointed this out to me.)

    OTOH, if the market reads the issue as a sign that the company is having a hard time, share price could fall, but if the market sees it as furthering a positive growth plan, the price could rise.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No recent posts?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No Brian, deliberate MISLEADING.

    I�m shure You followed the Autoblog Interview on Sept. 7th:

    Elon Musk :"...Musk: I actually think Tesla is in a pretty good position. In principle, if we raise no further funding, Tesla should be able to reach cash-flow breakeven, so that's kind of where we are right not. It's a public company, so you can see our financials. We've got a couple hundred million dollars. If we make a bunch of screw-ups, then we'll be in trouble, but if we execute reasonably well, then we'll be in good shape. As I mentioned in the last earnings call, we are considering doing a small financing round just to improve the cash cushion, just in case bad things happen, but hopefully that's money we'll never use. We might go something like that, but it's not yet approved by the board..."

    Basically the same repetition as in the conference call weeks before.

    here�s the Autoblog link just in case You forgot:
    In deep with Tesla CEO Elon Musk: Financials, Falcon doors and finding faults in the Model S


    He furthermore states that the DOE loan basically needed the security of a Daimler credit line.

    Sept. 25th:
    8-K filing, principally no money left.
    Issue additional stock, negotiate with DOE for repayments.No wonder Daimler seems so quiet recently.

    So that is the OPPOSITE content of the interview....

    I do not like those games.
    That�s not honesty on Musks part, instead we constantly witness a hidden agenda, on the shoulders of his hard working employees, Designers, marketing people and George B and in the end us as shareholders.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not even close. About 1900 Model X, 14,000 Model S. Maybe 16,000 total.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Horse pucky. Tesla will be required to make early payments only and when it becomes profitable and no longer is dependent on the loan money.

    Your paranoia will keep you burbling and happy for some time though, I'm sure.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No need to get personal, yet still not answering a single question.
    Team Tesla?
    How will they raise all the cash for the charger grid expansion & new stores, hiring second and third shifts, not to speak of brutal material inventory needed to be able to ramp up for 20k units?
    Quality end control, delivery challenges all over the world, and all that BEFORE warranty issues and cost, since all new cars rely on those?

    Do You really think the projected "income" thru a second offering of ~150 million will be sufficient for those challenges?
    Really Brian?

    That�s not paranoia, that�s a driving stock factor.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think the arguments back and forth about the projected financials aren't going to do much good ATM mainly because we all know the financials look like crap when a company is in its burn rate phase.

    What we need to realize is the secondary offering is strictly part of the DOE's new ratio requirements in order to extend terms of the loan and not so much out of desperation. The real problem lies in the supplier shortages. For those considering buying the stock or deciding whether or not to dump it have to ask yourselves: is the product good and is there a market? I test drove a Model S extensively and it's superb it put my mind at ease. If you know the type of buyer and market tesla is going for, the model s is a value proposition and a statement making car.

    The other thing that has to be done is tuning out the noise. People will reference DMC a lot when speaking about Tesla, but forget to mention that the delorean as a product did not deliver on its promises, the performance on the vehicle was atrocious. People will also draw comparisons to leaf and volt sales. People judge those cars as electric cars which already spell compromise. The Model S is being compared to gas guzzling competitors and is being judged as a vehicle.

    Right now it's just a matter of time and execution. I believe most at Tesla understand this (at least I hope they do) given their past experience with the roadster delay.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    to me, the most comforting (not sure that's the right word as a stockholder, but you get the idea) part of the whole thing is that at the end of the day, EVERYONE is saying that the Model S is a fantastic car. It may take a bit longer to get some of their manufacturing or supplier issues sorted out than they had hoped, and that may cause some short term pain and angst with the stock price, and maybe even cause them to need to raise additional capital, but at the end of the day, the product is here, and it's amazing, and that's what they really need.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Personal attacks are not appreciated in this forum. Please keep the discussions civil. -mod
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My point exactly.

    - - - Updated - - -

    The stock market can def. do that to some people on both sides of the coin. I think its when one gets emotional about investing is an indication of taking a step bank and using your head and not your heart to invest.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was never a fan of shorting any stock. Usually I'd like to believe that we want companies to progress and improve as it would have a greater macro effect on the economy. Anyway, with that said I really cannot comprehend why so many people WANT Tesla to fail. That's right I said it people WANT it to fail.

    The short interest pretty much displays that and a lot of publications such as our friend JP in Anti-Tesla Jibberish want it to. I think people fail to see the big picture. If anything, WE as American people should be hoping Tesla succeeds. It helps everybody. Not just for people who can afford an awesome vehicle. This would have a huge macro effect on the economy and competitors.

    If Tesla were to succeed we can finally bring the market in line in regard to petrol. We can finally use the huge natural gas deposits that the US has a surplus of. We can advance solar technology. We can push competing car companies to make better cars. Even more importantly we can create JOBS. The jobs that the economy so desperately needs in more than one function. Manufacturing for the cars, sales jobs for the retail stores, corporate jobs for growth in Tesla, and maintenance jobs for stores and service centers. This translates for more money flowing around the economy, more spending, and more importantly has a domino effect on the service sector which the US relies so heavily on for jobs.

    So with ALL these benefits I really cannot fathom why there's so much hatred out there for what Tesla is doing. Yes they took a DOE loan, but not every company is a Solyndra. Not everybody is Elon Musk. You better believe that he picks some high performers to surround him. A Players only play with A players. It's culture when it comes down to it. People who nitpick at the loan, fail to see the purpose of a loan. The US will get it back and will get it back with interest. It's like when people focused on lending to the big banks for TARP. The US actually profited off of that loan program. We lost money when we invested in GM which makes inferior products (although getting better) and was poorly managed at the time.

    Anyway as full disclosure I am fully invested in Tesla because all my words mean nothing if I'm not willing to back it up.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    To pile on

    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hi All - Long time reader of the forum but first time poster :) so hello ! One reasonable explanation for this is that Musk under-estimated cash burn during the ramp by an order of magnitude. Manually inspecting cars and holding up the assembly line is expensive business. Quite possible that they just burnt through that cushion he keeps talking about.

    I have another theory on why he is annoucing the raise right now. With 30 million shares short I think its possible he is trying to capitalize on a massive short squeeze. getting the regulatory stuff out of the way is smart in preparation for an appreciation in the stock. I know if I wanted to raise a lot of money I would time it when the shorts where desperate for new shares to buy to meet those short positions.Someone here asked the question - who would pay $30/Share for TSLA? The answer: every short that needs to cover their position in Q4-Q1.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Absolutely. The only thing I'd say different is that the short-term problems are inevitable. The market is distrustful of start-ups and EVs; suppliers will always be a problem with a new business; Murphy's Law; all these things and more or similar plague every new company. But as Tempus says, the product is solid, the demand exists, and the spread between electricity and gas prices will grow wider. It will continue to be a rocky road for several years. The market will not accept Tesla over night. But it will come as the cars continue to show their stuff and the engineers and managers continue to be creative and motivated.

    You are mixing two separate issues: The short investors and the haters. While there may be overlap, they are fundamentally different.

    Investors sell a stock short because they expect the price to go down. There are principled investors who put their money where their principles are, but mostly the market is made up of people who want to make money, whether it be in the long term or the short term. And people who think that EVs are "impractical" and that batteries will never be affordable are likely to be skeptical of Tesla. So they short the stock, expecting it to go down.

    The haters are acting on emotion. They see EVs as a threat to an industry that they associate with their own sense of self. People who love Detroit or the old muscle cars or pickup trucks or big SUVs. They may see the EV crowd as "holier than thou" or they may feel that we are trying to take away their right to burn oil like there's no tomorrow. They may even be angry because we are not paying gas tax, or because they have to pay so much for gas, or because they erroneously believe that we are going to break the electric grid by plugging in our cars.

    Then there are people like JP who are in direct competition with Tesla, but those are very few and hardly relevant to the discussion.

    I do not believe that the people shorting Tesla are motivated by a desire for Tesla to fail. Of course, once they hold a short position they want Tesla to fail so they'll make money, but their motivation is a belief that it will fail.

    I have never met anybody who wanted EVs or Tesla to fail. Most of the people I talk to feel that an EV won't work for them because of range anxiety. But none of them are hostile. They're just skeptical. And everybody who rides in or drives a Tesla loves it, even if they think they need a stinker.

    I think you are mistaken when you assume that the haters are the ones shorting the stock. People who can afford a margin account within which to sell short are not likely to invest based on their hatreds. They invest based on their expectations.
    �
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