Thứ Sáu, 28 tháng 10, 2016

Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements part 36

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What would you say to him if you ran into him? I wish I would have the courage to thank him for luring in the shorts for me
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't know about bonnie, but I would ask him what made him raise his target by 56% in less than a year. Is he saying that Tesla's prospects are that much better now than they were then?

    This is from September 2013:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hm, just googled Lovello's previous target - raised to $65 after stock rose to then ATH of $253 on Feb 26. So does that mean we should expect new all time high Friday ;)??

    Merrill Lynch reaffirms $65 price target on Tesla - MarketWatch
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I hope they have a position that reflects that price target.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Um, did I miss some news today? Up $10+ and I didn't see any substantive news on products or Gigafactory.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    These are both good items for TSLA, but $10+?

    If good, but somewhat unexciting news pushes the stock up more than 10 bucks, what's a Model X reveal and/or Gigafactory construction start (not just groundbreaking, but official choice + stuff being built) going to do? :biggrin:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think it's also more digestion of the Q2 results. We didn't have any raise at all in after hours for Q2, it was pretty flat afterwards, despite that the results were pretty good. So I think instead of a big pop, we're getting sort of a sustained rise. Which has been boosted by various analysts coming out and saying good things, including Jonas.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I hope your thesis is correct. It will be a much more stable rise with less 'gap filling' along the way. We have not heard from Andrea James yet..correct?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I believe she reiterated $325
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The stock rise led off a nice segment on Marketplace today about the gigafactory. They attributed the rise to the resolution of the China trademark dispute, in part.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I see two dumb dumbs in this situation. The first dumb dumb named Merrill Lynch took investors money, squandered it and almost went bankrupt in 2008, while the second dumb dumb named BOA bought the first dumb dumb for $50 billion, saving Merrill Lynch from bankruptcy, after having acquired such a dumb deal, they then had to settle various class action lawsuits for billions more. Today, it was posted on the news that BOA (dumb dumb number 2) is close to settling $16-$17 billion more for the mortgage crisis that they had a hand in causing, bringing the total various legal battles to about $66 billion in fees, settlements, penalties, etc. Why would anyone trust either of those dumb dumbs with their money or investment advise is beyond me, without the bailout, both dumb dumbs would be belly up.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    well in bac defense, they were "given" opportunity to buy countrywide and merrill with only a weekend to do due diligence. the opportunity was really a mandate from the fed to do it or else. now for doing it they pay heavy fines, most of which relate to the old companies. the dumb part for BAC (that is the symbol for bank of america) was not insisting on a clause from the fed that they be held harmless from fines related to the previous companies. of course they may have asked for those but with a gun to their head to buy may not have been granted.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Something for the moderators, or something that might be pertinent to stock movements. It is 10:00 a Eastern time on a Sunday night and there are 1200+ people (over 1000 non-members) browsing this sight. Is there any correlation between stock price and number of TMC viewers??? How are the numbers trending for stock price or deposits, etc. just a thought.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I would think that leaving the browser window open would keep you listed as "active" don't know what the timeout is for something like that. I know I probably always look active since I keep this site open 24/7 on at least one device or another. Phone, tablet, desktop, work computer... Something. But that is a lot of people that are "guests" they should make accounts and join us! In fairness I was on this site for about a year before I made an account. Anyway... Just thought I would throw that out there... It depends on what constitutes "activity" to make you "active" in the terms of showing up on the counter.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Cheers.
    1201elon-musk-with-champagne-1.jpg
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just got back from a cruise. Did I miss anything?


    Oh my...:scared:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My portfolio up 25%, but other than that nothing much.

    {Flux runs off cackling with glee}

    :biggrin:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Really wish they would have reported last week like everyone else :crying:, since I sold my Jan15's last Wednesday after giving a week for analysts to report. Now I get to have fun figuring out at what point TSLA is low-valued for a reentry point someday.

    I suppose the good news is I'll have no trouble waiting out the 30 days to avoid the wash rule now on the 50% loss I took on the Jan15s last Wednesday. And most everything is up today, so while I missed out on TSLA, the stocks I'm in still moved up, just not as much.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I cringe when reading your posts. Urge you to think twice or three times before jumping back into options. Bad luck, wrong personality or bad advise. Does it matter? Loosing money when you could have bought the stock and held on is clearly a better strategy for you

    not trying to rub salt in wounds. Just see you getting more aggressive to try to make up losses.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Oh how I have missed these days!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's actually been the opposite. I've taken longer and longer option time frames to get more conservative. My first options a year ago were maybe 1-month, migrating up to 9 month (those were the J15 TSLA options I just mentioned), now it's mostly 2016 ITM (though no TSLA at this moment). The results have mostly been poor regardless as my timing is just miraculously bad somehow, no matter how much I ponder or wait or don't wait. Like last week, I (and others) were checking off which analysts had reported and it seemed like all the big players had reported, so I sold since that major catalyst was gone...except I guess we all forgot DB.

    Losses are somewhat relative. I rode TSLA from $30-$150 or so before doing options. I cashed out probably 3x my initial investment, so I'll never "lose it all" so to speak. I'm certainly MUCH worse off than if I'd just held at $150 though. I've got about 25% of what I would have had, but again, that 25% that's left is all profit from before so while I regret the failures, I can keep some perspective on the overall results.

    Those dollars from those failures are gone and I'm not looking to get more aggressive to make up the losses. As I noted, I've gotten more conservative rather than aggressive. Sadly, the more conservative approach hasn't changed the results much, at least not yet, but what I do next isn't affected by how well or poorly the last trade went. 2016 LEAPS still seem like a sound plan at some entry point and some strike level, the next question is whether or not I can successfully figure that out this next time.

    And where I put the options money I cashed out last week is up 4% today. So while TSLA is up 5.25%, I'm not completely missing out.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    ckessel be sure to let us all know when you buy in again, so all of us others can sell :tongue:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    OT: Anyone know whats up with the Yahoo Finance badge to the right here? It does not seem to work.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Do you have a filter on for ads, etc.? If so, and if you want to see the Yahoo price chart, you'll need to craft an exception to your filter's rules.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nope, and I can not view it with my iPhone either.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sold my Jan16 135 option today for $133, bought for $38,34 in November last year :biggrin: Need to get down on margin, to be ready for the Jan17 options :smile:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That's hack of a huge % you are giving back to uncle Sam. Why not do a spread and recover money you need and delay paying the bill with lower tax?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    In Norway we have 27% flat tax, regardless how long time you keep the options or stocks :smile:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, Uncle Sam isn't his Uncle :D
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    With-holding tax makes Uncle Sam all our (TSLA shareholders') Uncle :cool:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So no matter how much you bring in per year, it's 27% flat? Say $10 000 income means $2 700 tax whereas $100 000 is $27 000 tax?

    There's no difference in tax rate between capital gain, employment income, interest income and dividends?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's the same tax for capital gain, interest income and dividends, but for employment income you normally pay a much higher rate.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I suppose I need to pay uncle Sam, but due to an agreement with the Norwegian authorities, I will get the payment refunded on my tax pay bill :)

    - - - Updated - - -

    Hers :smile:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My apologies :redface:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So am I right in assuming that investing benefit the rich more than the poor since the poor has lower income tax rate than investment tax.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Can you explain this spread strategy more? I thought once you sell & make a gain, you owe tax. How does a spread work to lower & delay the tax burden?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Aliens and tax

    I am curious if you really need to pay tax in US.

    When opening IB and one other international shares account, I filled in W-8BEN form. That is Certificate of Foreign Status of Beneficial Owner for US Tax withholding. The form establishes that one is a non-resident alien or foreign corporation, to avoid or reduce tax withholding from US source income.

    My understanding is that I will not be paying tax to US on my US capital gains. Perhaps the arrangement may be different in Norway. W-8BEN is US tax form, so it makes sense that such form is applicable to all US aliens, including Norway aliens.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hi Auzie

    i agree .

    Do non residents of the US need to pay US taxes on their IB trading ? Interesting question

    if we have to pay US taxes , then the Double Tax agreement would kick in , meaning a credit in your home country for US
    taxes paid

    In NZ you would not normally get a refund if the US taxes were more than the NZ taxes

    NZ taxes residents of NZ on US stocks to the extent you are taxable on a maximum of 5 % of the value of stocks at the end of the financial year ,
    , plus 5 % of realised profits , that profit is taxed at the individual's tax rate ( max 33 % )

    No capital gains taxes

    Rob
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    JP Morgan Auto Conference in NY today. Any thoughts?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No, Wenche is in Norway just like me. She will not pay any taxes in the US. She will not be asked to. I sold a lot of options with nice profits in 2013 in a US account and was never contacted by US Tax authorities. I believe the broker has me registered as a foreign citizen. I reported my gains to the Norwegian tax authorities and was taxed accordingly here at home.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Whew! I was afraid I had done it all wrong! I also only reported in Norway!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well my thought was that instead of selling your LEAPS to book short term gain, if you need money or book some profit, you can sell higher strike calls with same expiration to get some money. Since you have not booked any profit, you don't pay taxes. This conversation belongs to advance options thread and do read it to understand more about options before making a move.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Feel free to take this to the advanced options trading thread, but what pGo says is only half true:

    If you have LEAPS and want to take profits without paying gains, then yes you can sell higher strike calls against those LEAPS to collect cash and create a spread, but:

    1. If you sell a deep ITM call against those LEAPS then you will be taxed on those gains anyway, since IRS considers selling deep ITM covered calls (I think it applies against underlying stock position as well, but can't remember for sure). Deep ITM is considered anything more than 1 strike ITM, but nothing is set in stone and is open to interpretation by the IRS.

    E.g. you have J16 $200 LEAPS and want to sell a covered call, you can do so and not pay taxes as long as it isn't Deep ITM. TSLA is at $255.36 right now, so if you sell the $255 or above then you don't pay taxes. $250 might be okay, but is open to interpretation. $245 might not be okay and you will be hit with a tax bill.

    2. If you sell a call against your LEAPS then you may lose LTCG (long term capital gains) benefit of LEAPS if short call is held for less than 12 months.

    E.g. If you have J16 $200 LEAPS and sell a J16 $260 LEAPS against it, then you are okay. No tax paid today, since it isn't deep ITM. If you hold this delayed bull call spread for more than 12 months, then you can cash out and pay LTCG on entire spread.

    But if you Had that $200 LEAPS for 6 months now, and you sell a J16 $260 against it today, then the clock resets and you need to hold another 12 months to get LTCG treatment. So if you sell 8 months later, you are forgoing LTCG even though you held the long LEAPS 14 months, and will have to pay STCG tax instead on gain.

    Alternatively, if you have J15 LEAPS that you held for 14 months now; you can sell them today and claim LTCG. But if you sell a $260 J15 against it today to create a delayed construct bull call spread, then your holding period resets and you are screwed. You will then incur STCG on all of this.

    In the end the tax code is extremely complex. I have done a lot of research on this topic and this is how I understand it. I may have misinterpreted IRS language, which is extremely easy to do, so please consult your tax advisor; although I guarantee you that he will not know the correct answer either...

    Note: I pasted this post into Advanced options trading strategies thread as well, so we can carry on discussion there if necessary.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I hereby institute the Rhino prize for the most inventive FUD about Tesla cars. My first nomination is here:

    CNBC video (it starts at sec. 54.)

    For those who don't want to click on the video, I transcribed the most relevant part:

    CNBC reporter: "Kevin, Kevin, do you drive one of these?"
    Kevin: "No, but I'm seriously thinking of getting one, Karl, I was in South Beach recently, walked into their demo room, and a rather interesting experience, I love the car, I've ridden in it once now, it's a beautiful thing, beautiful piece of engineering, but I've never thought of this before: I was sitting there choosing colours off the panels on the wall, and this woman came up to me and said "have you ever thought if it's good for you to sit on the world's largest battery? What's gonna happen to your 'package'?" And I said WHAT?! I'd never thought of that before... and actually it's bugging me now! I don't know about this yet, I'm gonna do some research [laughter in the background], but I've got a lot of stuff sitting above a battery that's just a few inches [away], that's the biggest honking battery in the world! I'm worried about it."

    The guy was dead serious.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    fortunately he was dead ;>
    probably doesn't carry a cell phone?
    doesn't he realize that the earth is a bigger battery
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    lovejoy.jpg
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    As a fellow Canadian, that's our very own Kevin O'leary often featured on CBC. Unfortunately he's about as business savvy as Jim Cramer is investment savvy.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The Earth is not a big battery... It's a big ground (it's at zero electric potential.)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I hesitated writing that... true. it is ground
    ok, fine, add some trees and make a battery

    am I the only one that gets a spark when I touch ground?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Zapped

    Not the only one. I get unpleasant zaps on a more than daily basis, to the extent that I had to google possible treatment/solutions.

    Luckily body learns fast, so now when I approach expected discharge points, there is a special movement that preceeds the touch, to aleviate zap severity.:biggrin:

    - - - Updated - - -

    Thank you Johan, I got worried that Uncle Sam might want something from me.

    Not sure that I fully understand sleepy's post, but thank you sleepy for posting it. I will study it a bit more after some caffeine kicks in.

    My understanding of tax liability is that if I sell calls, puts or anything and get paid for that, I need to pay tax on the premium that I got, at my marginal rate.

    Underlying shares attract CG liability only when sold, regardless of the covered calls or puts tax liability. I could be wrong, but that is my understanding at the moment.

    I might start tax tread as that is one of my favourite fears, or perhaps we could revive some old tax tread, but I appreciate input on this subject.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I got this pic ready that I will be using to taunt the shorts just in case.
    Preview.jpg
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think this is not the case. I think once they're long term, selling calls against them can no longer drop them down to short term. It can reset the clock as you describe, but only if held less than twelve months. After twelve months you're in the clear.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Kevin O'Leary is EXTREMELY business savy. He knows the business world inside and out and has made an absolute fortune by doing so.

    What he is not, as evidenced here, is tech savy. He has very little scientific knowledge, but normally that's not really an issue for him, because he can pay someone for that. (He also has no morals, and limited understanding of other humans, but that's a different discussion)

    I'd happily challenge him on technical issues, but I'd never bet against him in business.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My husband did an EMF test in our Model S vs our Lexus ES. He placed the reader on both the floor of the cars (where our feet are) and also on the seat. The levels of EMF in the Model S were actually very low. The EMF levels in the Lexus were much higher.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Protecting the family jewels. Well done!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I thought the same thing...but I leave judgement to sleepyhead on this issue, lol. Either way it proves his point, the tax laws are so complicated that there is no clear rules on a lot of this stuff.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I guess depends on the definition of savvy. In my opinion business savvy means the ability to build a successful business with solid long term. He's very good at talking, relying on his media presence to market himself. Look up O'leary Funds and the read the first few google headlines as an example of a real company he's been involved with.

    No disagreement with the fact he's made himself a lot of money, but that does not qualify as business savvy in my mind. Just like how Cramer has done well for himself as an "investment guru".. I wouldn't call him a great investor either.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Great, TSLA is up again. Now I will be checking the stock price every 5 minutes instead of working.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I thought I was the only one :biggrin:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    In between those 5 minutes is used to check TMC :smile:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yup. In the gym now checking TMC and Google Finance between sets :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The potential energy stored in the battery is meaningless until you use it. This would be the same as sitting over a coiled spring (or fifteen gallons of gasoline). There is nothing coming from it that can be measured. You can measure voltage (or spring tension, or, I guess, weigh the gasoline), but until you turn the car on, nothing is happening. And in terms of EMF, you'd have to poke around where it's being used, so, the computers, or the inverters, and, of course, the motor. The thought of trying to hold a meter up near the motor wiring while simultaneously mashing the accelerator is kind of amusing. But, it's not about the battery. (Except in the "sitting on top of 15 gallons of gas" sense :wink: )
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    $TSLA upgraded at credit suisse PT- 325, no link yet, sorry.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, i do the same as Johan, bring my phone to the gym and hit refresh on google finance and TMC while stretching. Didn't know other people did that...I had a lunch date with my girlfriend about the same time as Credite suisse upgraded, and she was like "what's up with your phone, i thought the market was closed".
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sold the J15s I bought in march one week too early. Going to miss this run up. Hopefully I'll be around on the next cycle down and not miss the next one.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am confident you will be positioned right next time. :wink:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    When talking to my parents on the phone today, my mother mentioned that; "Tesla is coming out with the Model 3 in 2017." She knows and cares nothing about cars.

    This must mean something.

    I do not bring my phone anywhere near the gym, always stays in the car. I also don't train during trading hours though
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Does anyone have trailing stop loss/limit orders on their TSLA? I just added one at 20% below the price, but given TSLA's volatility I don't know if that will encompass the range of reasonable price fluctuations. What do you think?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't think limit orders are a good idea. Especially not for TSLA that is so volatile. There must be a way where you can get a warning if the price drops 20 % or you may just pay attention during the day. Imagine if two Model S's went up in fire in one day combined with a chinese costumer crushing his car over some minor issue. That might push the stock down quite a bit, but I would for sure use that oppertunity to buy more shares if I had the money to do so
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nope. During the forum panic, when TSLA dropped from 190 to 120, I increased my holdings by 50% in the 130s. Only sell if your thesis changes. Don't sell just because the market becomes irrational - and it will become irrational again.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The 52-week low is currently $116 or so and I think the ATH before that low was like $195. That is a 40% decline. The simplest way of hedging without taking the risk of triggering a stop loss is buying a protective put. Although that has its own set of caveats and of course costs money.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    maybe a buy order at 20% below?
    but I only have TSLA I plan on keeping right now..


    hmm, just made tea. fortune says 'patience pays'
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I tried out trailing % stop loss orders on some other stocks a few years ago. They were almost always a bad idea. Really they just solidify your losses at the worst possible time, sort of resembling margin calls that way. Never again for me.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am surprised at today's price action. I thougth we would have a 'CS report' burst followed by consolidation a little lower. I see that there is a lot of weekly option action at the 260 level so we may be seing a little market manipulation. My theory will only prove to be true if we end the week at 260ish.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I use trailing stops to lock in gains, I have a real job (or two...) so I can't babysit the chart all day, but if I see a stock going up, and I think it's time to sell (it's getting near what I think is the top), I don't just sell, I put in a trailing stop at barely below the current price. The risk is that it drops to the stop and then flies upwards and I miss out, but more often it allows it to run up a bit more before selling and netting me just a bit more than had I sold using a market or limit order.
    As with all other tactics there are risks, but there's never a way to avoid all risks, just mitigate them.

    My brokerage has also just now implemented bracket orders, and I plan to use them a lot more in the future. Allows me to buy a stock, and set an automatic stop loss, along with a sell limit at the same time. Much better for peace of mind.

    Figuring out where to put the stop (so that it doesn't get triggered by normal fluctuations, but still protects you from a sinking ship) is always a challenge, but not having one on a stock is a pretty big risk as far as I'm concerned.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I like doing this too. When I make a decision to sell something, either because I am satisfied it is at my goal or to cut losses, I instead set a stop loss just under market value. That way if I am wrong and it is set to run up so be it. Otherwise it will sell as I originally intended.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    Thanks Green. I like this idea. I too have a job where I can't check the market all day and I have frequently received texts warning me of price movements that I can't do anything about. As for selling in general, my portfolio needs some rebalancing after making an average of 300% on my TSLA stock so I think I need to sell some of my position. The options are too rich for my blood so buying on the dips is out of the question.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Here are the actual rules on this: Qualified Covered Calls—Special Rules

    This is what I was referring to:

    Treatment of capital gains with unqualified covered call. As a general rule, stock you own one year or more is taxed at lower long-term capital gains rates. But when you write an unqualified covered call against stock, the holding period is suspended. This means that counting up to the one-year holding period will not continue as long as the short option remains open.

    So writing an unqualified covered call against your stock will suspend the counting of the holding period. If the holding period is already over a year, then it's still long-term held. With a qualified covered call the period isn't suspended either way. Apparently writing an OTM covered call has no effect on the status of the stock at any time, either.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This makes sense to me; a trailing stop-loss doesn't. I view a sharp decline in TSLA as a buying opportunity, not a selling trigger. Obviously it would depend on exact
    why the stock fell, but I wouldn't want to sell my shares under most circumstances. If you feel you've made enough money on the stock, then sell it.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I would like this to be true for sure, but I just want to point out that it unfortunately isn't set in stone - I researched the issue thoroughly at tax time earlier this year and could find only a handful of (mostly non-authoritative) articles that took this position. It certainly isn't in the IRS regulations; in particular, the wording of the qualified covered call regulations seems superfluous if any OTM covered call has no effect anyway.

    However, if anybody does have an authoritative source for this (e.g. IRS ruling or some sort of formal legal precedent), I would very much like to see it because it would help a lot with my trading...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think it depends on the stock, I don't have a trailing stop on Tesla, but I do on some of my other stocks. In addition to what I mentioned earlier, I also use them on volatile stocks where I'm trying to make a quick buck, but that have the risk of going south, if I'm in a stock long term (like TSLA) then I'm willing to accept more downside for an expected long term gain.

    It's all about the odds, some of my bets I feel only have a 60% chance, but it's still over 50, so worth trying sometimes. These are ones I'm trading, not on the strength of the company, but on the market technicals. If I'm trading more on company strength then it's more long term, and the trailing stop is not appropriate.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I wrote an article on Seeking Alpha and witnessed a hilarious exchange in the comments.
    Logical thought is a well known Tesla bear who owns a mutual fund and constantly spreads FUD on Tesla.

    Logical Thought (LT): "...Tesla's $2.7 billion will be gone within 12-14 months, as explained here: (Link)"
    Surferbroadband: "    LT, your Mutual Fund will be gone in 12-14 months if you continue to short Tesla."

    Don't go shorting Tesla guys     :tongue:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'd be curious to know what fund he runs and how the returns have been over the last year and a half.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    From back when I read SA, I recall he's an "executive" at Axion Power, ticker AXPW with a fun long term chart. I wonder if he still claims Tesla/Elon is a big fraud and how his company is poised to revolutionize batteries, etc.

    Edit: Just looked again myself. Ironically, his company made a ~150% jump from .09 to .23 back in March because of the Tesla GF effect (same movement as a whole bunch of related micro resource and "green" companies like Ballard Power and Western Lithium Co.) before coming back down.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Are you talking about John Petersen - or does Logical Thought have an interest in the same company?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hah! Checked my Schwab expecting to see the streets running blood red, and i was essentially flat. My leaps gained value today.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Oops. You're right, I'm mixing up the good old SA bear "regulars" lol
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If I recall LT's TSLA position in the fund he manages is certainly doing poorly... I don't recall the overall status of his fund off hand though.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    On today's movement: While I was disappointed that our move over 260 the past few weeks didn't hold, I am very pleased with today's action. I was looking one of two different scenarios to play out in the 2-4pm range: A move to recover some fraction of what was lost in the morning, or a close near the low of the day. Given yesterday's reversal signal- start at all time high and end low, it seemed possible that we might have a slide today, a gap down tomorrow and land in the fun zone again: 240's. The 2-4pm time was critical, in my opinion, because we got a 3 dollar rally that took us from 254.80 to over 257 rather than an end at 252.

    I think that we are seeing a lot of short sellers open up larger and larger positions here, believing that this is a double top. If you believe that q3 is going to be bad, this might be a double top. I think that with the firming up of the gigafactory and the "100,000 run rate" comment, we are now justified in seeing 260. The market needed a hammer today to say "255 is the current price of tesla and it's a good fair price".

    It is my expectation that we hang out in the 255 zone for another few days before a piece of news puts us over 265, and if we hit 267 again we will hit 280. So I'm going to build up my position of shares and options with covered calls at the 280 level for september. As each week passes and nothing happens, I will prob get closer to buying short term options for late september, because i speculate that there will be model x news in september. Each passing week reduces the time premium, and makes those late-september options just a little more attractive. I don't think we can see an extension of the "handle" that is being formed on this cup and handle for more than another 2 weeks. One might argue that the cup portion was formed from march to august and therefore we should get a long handle, but i don't think that tesla can spend much time at the 260 level without something happening. Tesla had a periodicity that seems to change every 2-3 weeks, so I am gunning for sept 26 options.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I wish there was more news on the Model X. Tesla must still have it under tight wraps beneath the roof of the Fremont factory.

    Spy photos of a Model X driving around will surely send TSLA a few points higher.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    As much as I want it too, we won't see it until the beta reveal... Unless someone leaks some data which as nice as it would be I am betting on a Sept/Oct reveal. This is to likely help with Q3 outlook. If I knew I was going to very likely be putting out a negative financial I would try to time as much positive news around that negative as I could. An X beta event with a new surge of preorders and just review after review of how simply stunning the X is going to be... You wouldn't be able to drive the price down if you wanted... And I am betting they have the finalized site ready for the earnings release to further pad any potential for a negative... Just a guess... But if I was going to try to motivate the stock price and investors to swallow a negative EPS pill I would certainly have that pill ready to be washed down by a smooth glass of X and gigafactory ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I've posted this before but a TM employee told me that the reveal would be at the Detroit auto show in January. He said he was very confident in that.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    California Gigafactory


    California Senator Gaines and Senator Steinberg (President Pro Tem) are actively advancing legislation to provide tax breaks and to expedite any obstructions which may interfere with Tesla's Gigafactory construction.

    Senator Gaines has spoke to $500 million dollar tax breaks, with additional advantages going forward. The last day for the California to enact new bills will be August 31.

    Will the market react to such legislation?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Gotta disagree here. Studies have shown that trailing stops, properly used, can reduce investment risk at a statistically significant level. Ex: The Value of Stop Loss Strategies by Adam Y.C. Lei, Huihua Li :: SSRN . Worth a read for anybody who is interested in such things.

    The answer depends on your investment/trading goals, but I personally use trailing stop orders on anything I buy or short (except options). As you mentioned, the best trailing-stop methodologies will tie into the asset's volatility, so that you don't get shaken out on a fairly normal price movement. There are lots of ways to do that: average true range (ATR) stops, standard deviation stops, etc.

    For TSLA specifically, its ATR right now is about a 7% move per week and a 13% move per month. That suggests to me that a 20% trailing stop is pretty reasonable if your timeframe is medium to somewhat long term. So you could comfortably stick with that.

    Alternatively, if you're comfortable with monitoring the situation manually, you might consider setting a mental "trailing stop" a few points below TSLA's 200-day moving average. TSLA hasn't fallen below the 200dma since November 2012. That's a sign of a really consistent uptrend. If it finally drops below that level at some point, IMO that's a good time to sell and see what happens next before possibly re-entering. Of course, the 200dma is just a line on a chart, but a lot of people rely on it so it tends to create a significant psychological barrier in both directions.

    Right now, the 200dma is around $197, so it's about 23% below the current price. That's a nice cushion for the day-to-day (and week-to-week) volatility.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Perhaps, but I don't think we saw much movement during the Reno site build discovery and such (course it wasn't fully discovered and mentioned until mere days before the Q2 release... so there was a lot going on at the time that it is hard to tell for certain the impact it had).

    But CA passing legislation to help them get picked doesn't mean that TM will still end up picking them. So unless it comes from TM in Sept after the final call is made by CA, then I wouldn't think it would have too much of an impact... Crazier things have happened, of course.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Continuing with that thought for a second longer, if CA did pass something at end of Aug, based on the timeline of "decision by end of the year" if one of the other states is close to coming to an agreement as well, then I would think TM might hold out a little longer, show people the offer they have on the table by CA, which would further kick the other states into high gear that CA is ready AND this is what they are offering, give us something or we will move on this. CA legislation just gives TM more bargaining chips with the other states, honestly.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There has been a flood of upgrades and new price targets in the last several weeks. Back when they were predicting 200 to 260+, I was a bit skeptical that we would be here so soon. I expected at least a year to pass. But, here we are and new upgrades are still rolling in.

    Has anyone, perchance, tracked price targets, the initiator, date and price at the time of initiation or upgrade? It would be interesting to see who the top performers are when it comes to analyzing Tesla. If someone has the info, I can put it into Excel and see what we can find.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Bloomberg ranks analysts in real time on their performance vs. targets and how much their analysis moves stocks they cover. Adam Jonas of MS has been number one for a very long time. I don't currently pay the $30k per year for a Bloomberg terminal with access to this data, but when last I looked, this was the "leaderboard:"

    TSLA Analyst Rankings.png
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I know it says archambault is unranked, but he doesn't deserve to be on the bottom of that. His note comparing tesla to apple, maytag, and ford, and looking at all the possible futures of the company out to 2025, was quite good. Yes his PT is currently 200, which is a bit low (though the stock was trading near that when the note came out), but it's good analysis nonetheless.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Guys can you please explain to me if the term overbought means anything other than overpriced? I.e. that it's an opinion on that whoever is saying it means that the current stock price is too high and bound to go down? Because for every stock bought one is sold right? So if a stock is overbought then it must be oversold too? But I'm guessing it means that in the last time frame there have been more buyers than sellers which has driven the price up and now it's too high and bound to go down again? Or is it more of a factual term, that you can calculate and everyone will always agree on? I really don't think I understand this term.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have always believed the term does mean that the price has been 'bought up' to a price that is probably a bit higher through exuberance than it should be. It is an 'indicator' that the price is more likely to go down than up in the near term.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Why isn't Jeffries ranked better? Their stats looks good.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I'd go with overbought being the market exhausted itself of short term buyers and everyone got a piece of allocation they want. In a run up, people just want the stock, but they usually don't want 100% of their worth in it. This can probably be tested with a large buy order followed buy a large sell order in an illiquid stock. Overpriced I usually just point to that VW squeeze.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Oh, that chart is from February 25th 2014, not at all current. Also Jefferies is ranked 2nd (look to right column).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    �Many of the buyers in that (high-end luxury sedan) segment want what�s new, and they�re trying it,� said Lexus� VP of Marketing, Brian Smith. �They�ll probably come back (to Lexus) � I think the question remains to be seen how many people will buy a second Tesla.�

    What a goof (although he obviously has to say something like that). I love the last sentence - yeah because Tesla's customer satisfaction rates are so abysmal...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Haha, The question remains whether any Tesla owners will ever go back to Lexus especially if they saw any of their anti-EV ads.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    More like bridging the gap between sand and the head of Lexus' VP of Marketing.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What do you think about talking at an oil conference?
    This is an oil conference?!

    - - - Updated - - -

    And no, I think that is definitely news! I don't think anyone thought China had done that well.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Well thanks Elon, I am going to now go read "Merchants of Doubt"
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think he basically blabbed that China was buying more cars. I suppose we will get more confirmation of that by early Nov (ER).

    But... I think China just has to sneeze to buy more cars than most other countries. Something about 1.35 billion people... it's just a matter of time before China is the #1 Tesla-buying nation.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    at that price point? I wouldn't say number 1... maybe number 2 for a while. The US is likely to remain their strongest market. Even their current projections puts all of NA (which is like 90% or more US) at 40% of the expected demand and all of Asia (CN, AU, HK, JP, KR, etc) at 40%. While China is sure to be their largest Asian customer, I wouldn't think they would surpass the US just yet.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You are right.

    To be exact... I meant "China was buying more cars [than Norway]"

    And then... "it's just a matter of time [and it won't be soon]..." :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Musk semi-active on Twitter this afternoon talking about Europe and Spain/Portugal Supercharger expansion.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Merc s class sales are 3x of us in China at double the price afaik
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The fortunes of TM and TSLA longs depends on CHINA:wink:
    �
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