Thứ Sáu, 28 tháng 10, 2016

TSLA Investor Discussions part 22

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You posted, and complained, that you would not be able to take your Leaf to a supercharger location. My point is that it is not appropriate, or engineered to take the power available.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Correct. From an investor perspective, even in the worst case scenario things look manageable and it's not difficult to model. So with my spreadsheet, and given the info in that last Tesla blog less than 2 weeks ago, and the fact that I haven't heard of a single case where Tesla failed to meet a promised delivery date, I'm starting to get a little bored with all the wimpy anxiety and hand-wringing. I suspect short-sellers are feeding off those type of thoughts themselves and that's why they're shorting.




    P.S. can everyone who wants to discuss Leaf's, charging and the like please move over to those threads and sub-forums. Thanks!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nigel, I don't quite follow the math here. If their burn rate is $100M per quarter, average selling price is $75k, and gross margin is 25% they would need to sell 5333 cars per quarter to break even, not 1333.

    average selling price $75,000 * 25% margin * 1333 cars = $25M
    average selling price $75,000 * 25% margin * 5333 cars = $100M

    This I can follow. If burn rate drops to $250M/yr ($62.5M/qtr), then to get to $250M in margin it would indeed be 13,000 cars:
    average selling price $75,000 * 25% margin * 13,000 cars = $244M

    Why different math in the two cases? Revenue in the first, earnings in the second. Was there some distinction between the two you were trying to make that I missed?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The first is about cash flow, the second about profitability...two different subjects. Tesla could generate cash and carry forward losses for years (see Amazon); but running out of liquidity would present a problem.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    In the next 2 weeks? The plan given in the last quarterly report Q&A (a "soft" target, though), was about 500 in Q3 and 4,500 in Q4. (They said they are not completely certain that they can reach 5,000 by Dec 31st, but that they will be at a high production level by then).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The market won't remember what was said, it'll remember what was printed:

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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Certainly, which means we need to be prepared for the possibility that the market might get slightly "disappointed". We don't have any information yet that those concerns would have already been resolved.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Q3 guidance and then results will be the trigger for a significant movement either way. (IMHO)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    New Form 4 SEC filing;
    Elon bought 5.3M shares @ $31.17
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Right, depending on where the production will be when they announce Q3 results, they will have more and better information to update the guidance for Q4 and 2012. Although, as the steep part of the ramp up was apparently planned for beginning of Q4, it may still be too early to give certain predictions about quantities.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So for more than $150 million? A non-trivial amount.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Q3 results will be announced well into October so they'll know what the Q4 production figures will be by then.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It still leaves the whole of Nov and Dec for additional ramp-up (which Elon said is possible, above the rate of 20k per year).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    well yes and no; it's actually options at that price so no money changes hand right now, but it does help establish the market price per share of the stock since it's a large block of options;
    term of the option is 10 years-
    whoops - I see Nigel beat me to the punch above
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The options were granted on 8/13 and so they were fixed at the closing price on Monday ($31.17). The market price determines the option price, but the granting of options does nothing to establish the market price regardless of how many options there are.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    my experience in public traded 'start up' is different. When the market price is determined largely on confidence of management and future profitability, the willingness of major executives to accept large option blocks for their efforts at current market evaluations add to the confidence that the stock is based on. No one, including myself is saying these options reflect the market price- but they most definitely help establish the market share price when that share price is based largely on future potential and the management ability and belief to get it there.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    +1
    I can't tell you how many options I had working for many tech companies that never made the option grant price ("under water options"). This grant is nice PR but does not change the short term fundamentals. What has been an increasing worry for me is why insiders are still net sellers of their options at this point (see data below for last 6 months). Also alarming is why do key executives like George B [only 200 shares] & Deepak [980 shares] have so few shares. I get the auto sell to comply with insider trading rules, portfolio diversification, etc. but I can't understand why they would not retain a significant number of TSLA shares with the growth path the company is on.

    Am I missing something here ??? I hope this data is incomplete (like it is for Elon). Tell me it isn't so that I have more shares then the bottom 4 insiders !!!

    Top Insiders Fidelity.com (does not include Elon�s 33% stake held in trusts)

    Name Position Total Holdings Last Transaction Type Last Transaction Date
    GRACIAS, ANTONIO J. Director 88,762.00 Sell 05/14/12
    STRAUBEL, JEFFREY B. CTO 79,634.00 Automatic Sell 03/26/12
    BUSS, BRAD W. Director 11,764.00 Buy 07/02/10
    MUSK, KIMBAL Director 3,992.00 Automatic Sell 02/02/12
    EHRENPREIS, IRA M Director 3,446.00 Acquisition (Non Open Market) 12/09/11
    AHUJA, DEEPAK CFO 980.00 Option Execute 07/16/12
    PASSIN, GILBERT Vice President 329.00 Option Execute 07/16/12
    BLANKENSHIP, GEORGE VP 200.00 --
    WHITAKER, E General Counsel 0.00 --

    Predictive Insiders

    Name Position Buyer / Seller Avg 6-Month Return Total Holdings Last Transaction Date
    GRACIAS, ANTONIO J. Director Seller +22.67% 33,333.00 05/14/12

    TSLA Insider Transactions | Tesla Motors, Inc. Stock - Yahoo! Finance

    Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) -NasdaqGS
    29.19 0.23(0.78%) 11:51AM EDT 8/15/2012- Nasdaq Real Time Price

    Get Insider Transactions for:
    Net Share Purchase Activity
    Insider Purchases - Last 6 Months
    Shares # Trans

    Purchases 0

    Sales 1,186,290 29

    Net Shares Purchased
    (Sold) (1,186,290) 29

    Total Insider Shares Held 47.22M
    % Net Shares Purchased (Sold) (2.5%)
    Net Institutional Purchases - Prior Qtr to Latest Qtr
    Net Shares Purchased (Sold) 757,501
    % Change in Institutional Shares Held 1.2%
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree with the sentiment and have wondered some of the same. I've taken many options as well and for the same reason you cite (never making strike price), often negotiated for a lower strike than the current market price for that very reason. Elon could have done the same, did not, adding confidence to the current market price, which is based almost solely on confidence, which you and I are expressing now become less when insiders don't hold shares but sell them...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Did that just happen? I don't think he'll want his shares diluted.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No he didn't buy, they are option grants...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Options at a price below current market has major tax implications, which may end up having you pay tax on a gain that will be realized only 10 years down the line. If the price drops below your lower the option level in this case, you may end up with a tax liability on a gain that doesn't exist in reality.

    To stay OT, it does nevertheless indicate a confident belief in the future by Elon.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yep I think we're general agreement and u were right to clarify options not stock as I should have done initially. My error
    (Often the tax implications are worth it, or can be deferred via trust and other offsetting mechanisms, but your point is well taken)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is news to me. For my past corporate options, there were zero tax events until you exercise.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That's why I said "may". Granting options below market price may be seen as a direct financial benefit, which may be taxable. In Elon's case he apparently takes only $33k in actual salary so other financial benefits would be interesting to the IRS. It's a complicated subject and I'm not a tax accountant.

    Let's not go too far OT in this thread please, we can start a new thread Off Topic if it's of high interest.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Let's just agree that if all the mile stones are met in 10 years (including market cap 43bn) the share price will be considerably higher than $31 and Elon will excersise his option, thereby getting a lot rich(er).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah- Nigel's correct based on my experience. There are good legitimate ways to avoid it (even by adjusting the type of option), but if not careful, the tax boys will forced an assumed gain in the year of grant for the difference in strike and market price.

    Back more on-topic though: I still look for non-fully reported shares held by some of those other insiders. They hold too few shares currently to make a statement about their belief - I like the package Elon just put together as a positive sign of where he wants it to go, but then his recent statement is more worrisome. Looking forward to the September charging station (or other) announcement to try and tie it all together I guess
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    170.000 shares in three hours is *very* low volume. I wouldn't call that a "market".
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Without dilution that share price would be around $430 to get that $43B market cap.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There's no way that TSLA is going to get to $43bn cap without another share issuance. The capital requirements of expanding auto manufacturing at the rate that TM has laid out simply can't be done from cash flow. In particular, the tooling costs for the GenIII lines will need extra cash.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Maybe some people just don't buy stock?

    Maybe GB has some Appl?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There might some of that, but I think with a good margin, which Tesla has said it is aiming for, I think they can grow to a large car company without much dilution, or perhaps without any at all (especially if they qualify for another DOE loan once profitable, which I think they should, as that would be one of the best uses of tax money possible, and the very purpose of the ATVM program).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Why risk your own $ if you have options?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That's kind of a cynical way of putting it.

    Another way of stating it: Part of your employment package is based on "future money" that may be worthless (underwater options). Any good investment advisor will point you to diversification rather than buying yet more of your employer's stock.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I guess you are right, it is a little cynical. To elaborate, there is not much sense in buying stock at market price if you have options which vest in the future at much lower than current market prices.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Making another run at resistance. Will it break through this time? Last two times were a no go, but the lows are getting higher...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Lack of volume buyers = inability to break through ?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    But why not exercise and retain those shares if you believe, like many of us do, the stock will go to xxx $ in 2-3 yrs. The only reason to exercise and sell is if you need the money or you believe the shares will be lower in the future. It just not send a good message to the market to be the company cheerleader and hold tocken shares George 200 - CFO 980 shares. I hope I'm wrong.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Does not send .... iPhone input:cursing:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My thoughts (hopes?) exactly.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Maybe George B with grant us a blog update tomorrow. Be nice to do something with my Aug calls.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    We're going a bit off-topic again but the short answer is that when you exercise you are losing power/flexibility and leverage.
    You would be better off leaving those options as options and spending the "new money" on separate/additional shares.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    new interview with Elon. Helps clarify some of his earlier remarks. Great read- highly recommended:
    from the article "The next six months for Tesla are going to be tough. I think six months from now, we'll know whether it will survive or not. And I think it will. But the next six months will determine that."

    Q and A: Elon Musk, CEO, Tesla - Automobile Magazine
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, BUT for example, the CFO (of all people �the money guy) has exercised and sold $100,000+ worth of shares vs exercise and HOLDING shares which would show more confidence in the company/shares.

    Ownership Summary
    Institutional Stock Ownership 33.1%
    Institutional Mutual Fund Ownership 33.3%
    Mutual Fund Ownership 1.2%
    Insider Ownership 0.2%
    Other 32.2%
    Total Outstanding Shares: 105,432,497


    AHUJA, DEEPAK � Chief Financial Officer
    5 Most Recent Transactions (Last 2 Years)
    Date Transaction Shares
    07/16/12 Option Execute 10,000
    07/16/12 Automatic Sell 10,000
    05/10/12 Option Execute 10,000
    05/10/12 Automatic Sell 10,000
    02/02/12 Option Execute 10,000

    Current holding as of 7/16: 10,980 shares (980 + another 10,000) better but still a net seller.

    Again, I hope I�m wrong and this data from Fidelity.com is incomplete and does not include shares held in trust (like Elon�s).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's good to take a look at that, but before reading too much into that stuff, you should probably try to find out if a) the options had to be exercised by a certain date, he may have just wanted to avoid letting the unrecognized gain go to waste and b) there are lots of reasons to cash out of investments regardless of future expectations, maybe his wife wants a new kitchen, maybe he wants a new ferrari etc.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Joe, you can find more on this subject by searching back through this thread but let me try and put your mind at rest....

    *ckessel* highlighted back here Tesla's Form DEF 14A where the company confirms on page 22 that:

    From page 25 onwards you can see in detail the long-term incentive programs which are all equity based.

    Most of the sales you see are part of the directors compensation packages and the reason they sell immediately is that they are automatic under Rule 10b5-1, which avoids insider knowledge issues by making the sales automatic. These sales are not determined by the employee but happen regardless of what he or she wants.

    In short: the directors have a long term equity incentive and the short term sales are automated. It does not denote a lack of belief in the company.

    Hope that helps.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Disclosure: I have never shorted TSLA. As a long with 1900 shares, this is a big deal to me and going forward I will switch to a short term (days) trading strategy until I see a better insider buying pattern (buy & hold vs buy & cash-out).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks for the info but this supports my concern if I compare this data with the Fidelity data (again, maybe I don�t have all the data): Their current holdings are far less than the options they were granted & exercised/sold. I can�t image that they "needed" the cash that bad if they thought the same shares would be 2x 4x 6x in the next few years. Maybe an analyst can clarify what their total long term beneficial holdings are and we can hear from them directly on an conference call.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    ^^^ It's all there in the declaration and if you read pages 25-28 you have all the data, the SEC site explains Rule10b5.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I�m going to let this go after this post (maybe I�m too dense). If you compare the shares granted/exercised (your data) with the shares now held (insider info on Fidelity, Yahoo, whatever) it shows a big net sell for George and Deepak as I see it.

    TSLA Insider Transactions | Tesla Motors, Inc. Stock - Yahoo! Finance
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That's because of the automatic sell order. It seems strange if you've never experienced it, but it's not that unusual which is why the analysts are not bothered by it.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Deepak seems to have exercised regularly (back to at least Feb 2011), it might be more his income than an investment. (And you probably don't know how many he is keeping.) I think employees exercise options all the time, including in companies with very positive outlook. They want to buy houses and so on, before they retire. To me that doesn't seem a good guideline.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'd hazard a guess that 99.999% of SEC insiders (insiders as defined by SEC Rule 10-whatever) in publicly traded companies have an automatic sell schedule set up. You'd have be insane or independently wealthy not to.

    The problem is that the sales windows for SEC insiders can be very limited. If you have material information that could swing stock price, you're not allowed to trade the stock until after that information becomes public. So when Tesla is working out deals like the Toyota Rav4 deal that probably took quarters to negotiate, you're locked out of trading from the time people start talking about that deal until after the deal closes and the details are published. If you have multiple deals in the works that could swing the stock price like the Daimler-Benz or SolarCity deal, you're locked out until every last one of them is settled.

    And even then, you're only allowed to sell in very limited trading windows. At my company, it's something like one month out of every (3-month) quarter.

    So at a company like Tesla, if you're an SEC insider I think you could easily go years without being able to sell stock unless you set up an automated sell system. (I certainly saw that happen at my company in its younger days.) But the automated sell system means you sell a certain amount every quarter no matter what happens.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Also for diversification. Who knows what might happen to make all your options go underwater for a few years? So sell some regularly, and buy other stuff that is not likely to be affected by anything that happens specifically to Tesla.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Diversification of job and investments. I don't think that little info we have (without any details) is much to go by.

    (Although in my case I did well to keep a large part of the stock options for as long as I could, until the expiration date came up (just 1 or 2 months earlier would have been slightly better), and now wish I had kept the others as well.)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Short interest

    I usually use the NASDAQ pages to monitor TSLA short interest, but a) they only post these figures twice a month, and b) the mid-August numbers (they usually post data for the 13th or 15th of each month) are still not up.

    Does anybody know of a more timely (but still accurate) source for the number of shorts?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Since Tsla is traded on Nasdaq I would surmise that is the most up to date source.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No conversation since yesterday morning?? Problems with site?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Really not much to say right now.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    OK. Just seemed odd. :) I enjoy reading the (sometimes heated) conversations and learning as much as I can.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good, largely realistic, "Forbes" Article: tesla-motors-three-risks-that-could-affect-our-price-estimate/ gives a price estimate of $41.

    In other news, Fisker reports ("Fisker On Death�s Door? Big Recall, Exec Shuffling, Money Woes For Electric Carmaker") seem to have stopped the TSLA surge today. The market needs to learn Fisker and Tesla are not the same.

    To paraphrase George Orwell: Tesla good, Fisker bad. :wink:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    OK, I'll bite. Here's an idea: Jan $27 Puts are bringing in a lot of money: over $4.

    Earlier today people would have paid you $4.20 for the right to make you buy TSLA between now and Jan 19, 2013 from them at the price of $27. That's an effective buy price of under $23.

    Clearly some people are thinking Tesla won't make enough deliveries in 2012. If you think they will, this is a good way to put your money where your mouth is.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't trade in options but as far as I know, a put is an option to sell, not buy. The contract you mention would bring in $400 but you're betting that at no time between now and Jan will the stock price drop below $23.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Daily volume has been quite low for the past several days...therefore, not much is happening. :shrug:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I decided to move the Off-Topic posts about Bonnie's avatar to random chitchat - Page 22 because, well, it's off topic but might be fun to discuss...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    He is referring to selling the put and collecting the option premium. By chance if the option comes into the money, then he would be able to buy at the effective price stated, (strike - premium). You would be correct if he was to purchase the puts.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Right, the person buying the PUT option from you is buying the right to sell you shares, which is the same as making you buy the shares.

    It's not solid that "at no time" can the stock to drop below $23. There's the remaining time value, there's that you didn't sell the PUT to a specific investor so some people paid more and some paid less for the option which affects the breakeven for them, and there's also that you end up in a pool from which assignments are given. Finally, if your approach is that you want to buy more TSLA then this is a way to either make some money or buy at more attractive price.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What do you think of the new GeorgeB blog post that only 74 cars have been built for reservation holders � Sept is only days away � seems we should be much further along. We see what happens tomorrow.


    Inside Tesla - 08.21.12 | Blog | Tesla Motors
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That seems about right given the numbers. It was something like 1 car/day to start. Then a few weeks later they went to 2 cars/day. It's been, what?, 8 weeks since the release...9 maybe? Not sure how many it is per day now, but I'd say the 100 less the 26 for other purposes sounds about right to this point.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The question isn't so much how many cars they have built until now, but more how much work they have left to do before they can ramp up on a larger scale.

    I suppose production rate depends on the slowest component, perhaps on one minor small thing. So we can't tell from the outside how much it will take, and very likely they can't exactly tell in advance, until all individual components are ready for higher rates. Plus they may still have to do lots of additional manual testing, to avoid missing any problems at each increase of rate for each component, until they can rely on each step to work well automatically, before they can reduce testing to a normal level.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So they doubled the total number of cars in 3 weeks? That sounds right on par with what Elon said would happen. Remember, this is an exponential ramp!

    100, 200, 400, 800, 1600, 3200, 6400

    So they need 6.5ish sets of 3 weeks to make the 5000 unit goal. There are about 20 weeks left on the the year. Let's see...20 divided by 3 is... Oh my gosh, 6.7.

    They're fine as long as they stay on the exponential curve, which they keep saying time and time again is the plan. The problem is humans are really bad at imagining the exponential. So, before fretting, write it down.

    EDIT:
    Actually, I counted wrong. They only need 5.5. So they actually have a nice buffer to boot.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    However if there are delay issues there is no reason to think they can still hit the exponential curve, so it's probably going to be tight.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just responding to "seems like we should be much further along". No, I don't think we should be further along, I think we are right on target, if not ahead of schedule.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Market agrees so far �. 29.85 0.74(2.54%) 10:19AM EDT
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Edit: where did you see they doubled the total cars in 3 weeks? I just see that they build the 100th car, but they'd had 10 Founders + ~10(?) test drive cars back on ~6/22. That leaves 80 cars build in the last 8 weeks. Did I miss something?

    Anyway, 20k/year run rate is about ~1150 in 3 weeks. Even at 30k/year that's ~1725 in 3 weeks. They'll never hit a production rate of 3200 or 6400 cars per 3 weeks. They could make it though even at the 20k/year rate if they don't miss a step:

    8/20-9/10 = 200 cars
    9/10-10/1 = 400 cars
    10/1-10/22= 800 cars
    10/22-11/12 = 1150 cars <-- 20k/year run rate
    11/12-12/3 = 1150 cars
    12/3-12/24 = 1150 cars

    total = 4850 cars

    So, it's certainly possible, though it's a high volatility target since missing a step somewhere along the line cuts off a lot of end year production.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agree on this, remember Elon tried to down-play 5000 ("soft target") but it has become important for them to hit it. At least for the short term stock price. In the longer run though it will mean nothing if it's 4000 cars in 2012 (and the 5000th comes in say week 3 of January).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    In the last blog post which was posted 08/02 (three weeks ago) GeorgeB says that there are 50 total cars. Today there are 100. Double.

    Elon said with almost certainty that they would be above the 20k/year run rate by the end of the year, but I agree, they aren't going to hit 3200 cars a week in the last 3 weeks of the year. I wasn't saying that they were going to, I was just pointing out that when you double the total number of cars on the road every 3 weeks it may look slow at the beginning, but numbers like 5000 are well within reach after just a few doublings.

    In summary, it wasn't supposed to be a prediction as much as a demonstration. Your scenario path to 5000 is likely much closer to reality, except that I would allow the rate to climb to more like 1200 cars in 3 weeks before growth stops completely.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    In between GB's two most recent postings, there were 13 production days (assuming M-F production). Indications are they were producing 2+/day at the beginning of that period, yet their mean production rate was almost 4/day, which suggests, using a reasonable approximating function for growth, they were producing roughly 5-6 cars per day at the end of that period. Similar extrapolation (again this is still rough) suggests producing slightly more than 25/ day by the end of September, in order for cumulative production to exceed 500 by the end of Q3, a target EM suggests they will certainly/at least make. Cash flow positive occurs at ~32-35 per day (working back from EM's 8K or so positive cash flow comment at stockholders mtg). Putting this all together (and my rationale for posting this in the investor thread) suggests that TSLA could be at their lowest cash point as early as mid-October. I see that as a major risk reduction point, as it means they are not going to run out of cash. IMHO, that threshold is even more significant for risk reduction purposes than hitting their 5K end of year target.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thank you for your analysis. I'm Sig. #121 and was told late September or early October by my rep this week. Counting the Founders (41) and Roadster (244) owners I should be within the first 500 vehicles or #406 if my calculations are correct. Getting a confirmed date will certainly boost my confidence in the magical 500 number being obtained. I may not take delivery by the end of third quarter, but if it in route that counts for me.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    here we go again... - now that all the other JP catastrophes have proven false, cash flow and production perfection are all he has left. Seems to think the stock will only hold this level if they make production and turn positive can flow

    Tesla's 'BS to Book' Ratio Says It All - TheStreet
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    He starts considering the possibility that Tesla might actually make it, as he comments on what he expects to happen then.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This article is so stupid that it defies description. A company intending to make money that doesn't, and/or has negative cash flow, is definitely a huge red flag and investors should be extremely wary. In Tesla's case, however, this seems to me to be entirely intentional! They knew they were going to stop selling the Roadster, and there would be lag before they got a lot of Model S's out the door. So how does his "BS to Book" ratio prove anything?! I'd be wary of stocks when things don't go according to plan, but it seems like Tesla is more or less on schedule with exactly where they intended to be.

    I don't own Tesla stock (yet) because I figure I've got enough money tied up in the company at the moment, but an article like this paradoxically really makes me want to invest because if this is the best this guy can come up with, they must really be in good shape!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    yeah- I noticed that as well; A first for JP;
    I think he's starting to hear the crows fly in for his pie
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looking back over the past week or two, it looks like tsla is ripe for another mini profit-taking session.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Elon Musk:
    > One of the things that I've been really emphatic about is that in 2013 we'll produce at least 20,000 units and the gross margin will exceed 25%

    Let's run some basic EPS numbers. The average selling price I pulled from thin air.

    20,000 cars x average $80,000 price x 25% margin / 105,000,000 shares outstanding = $3.81
    25,000 cars x average $80,000 price x 25% margin / 105,000,000 shares outstanding = $4.76
    30,000 cars x average $80,000 price x 25% margin / 105,000,000 shares outstanding = $5.71


    20,000 cars x average $70,000 price x 25% margin / 105,000,000 shares outstanding = $3.33
    25,000 cars x average $70,000 price x 25% margin / 105,000,000 shares outstanding = $4.17
    30,000 cars x average $70,000 price x 25% margin / 105,000,000 shares outstanding = $5.00

    We have a range of EPS between $3.33 and $5.71. Give a P/E ratio of 20 (again, pulled from thin air) we get a stock price range of $66 and $114. Not too shabby. As for when we might hit those numbers? Perhaps when we see 5,000 cars/quarter being produced with an order rate to consume 20-30,000 cars annually.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    "As for when we might hit those numbers? Perhaps when we see 5,000 cars/quarter being produced with an order rate to consume 20-30,000 cars annually."

    and short term $38 when sig 200-300 get delivery dates or $28 if not!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    DriverOne, that is gross margins not EBIT margins you are forgetting about $350 - $400mm of SG&A and R&D in your calculations as well as interest expense and eventually a tax rate.

    Using your numbers 20,000 units at 25% gross margins and $80k ASP you would get $0 to $50mm in profits or about $0.00 to $0.45c in EPS in that scenario without taking into account interest expense or eventual taxes. Using a 20x P/E would get you $9.00

    At 30,000 units and the same ASP and gross margins you would get $250 - $300mm in profits or about $2.40 to $2.90 in EPS again without interest or taxes. At 20x this EPS you would get $48 - $58.

    hope this helps
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was right. Expect a climb toward $31 and another profit-taking day within the week.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Woa... if the trend continues, we'll have 31M in two weeks. They must get encouraged by all the "profit taking" comments here... ;)

    And there must be a lot of balance coming from the more "bullish" who start buying when the shorts cause the price to go under $30.

    I guess we are in for quite a ride.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Short interest not droppin??? They're gonne get burned!!!don't these people see the resevations??? Dont't they see great reviews? I'm gonna re-buy in at below $30.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What exactly does this mean?

    Also, how are you guys going to play next week? The downgrade really hurt today, and I am still waiting for an entry point. Don't want to be too late... how is production doing relative to expectation? A bit behind?

    Thanks! :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It looks like they've begun the first step in the ramp up two weeks ago. They went from one car a day to probably four cars a day. Next week we'll probably see eight to ten a day. To answer your question, Tesla has continued to say they're on track to do 5000 by the end of the year. The other number is 500 by the end of this quarter which is still quite possible.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I would be surprised if there were any similarities between the photo with 240 volt AC charging at 3.3 to 6.6 kW and what Elon has in mind other than the use of PV arrays and battery storage for charging. I'm guessing that an application with a 90 kW DC Supercharger would require at least an order of magnitude greater surface area of PVs. So Tesla might require a partner with a nationwide presense having structures with very large roofs, large grid connections, and positioned nearby major highways.

    Larry
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Gas stations maybe? :scared:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    hmmm... wouldn't that carry the ironic day
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Something like this?

    BP Snellader.jpg

    Of the 20 some fast chargers in the Netherlands I'd guess about 7 or 8 are at gas stations.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    yeah thanks for that- hard to see it happening here (US) but it's a changing world
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't see any logic in having supercharging tied to solar. PVs add hugely to the cost of each station, limit where they can be located, complicated zoning, and add to operating costs. If the supercharger is not grid-tied, then that's a clear signal to the market that the superchargers aren't going to be used very often, i.e. Tesla isn't really going to sell many cars.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hi Robert,

    All true, but don't you ascribe any advantages to demand charge mitigation and "free" energy?

    Larry
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The demand charge mitigation comes from having batteries -- and that may be sensible but is independent of solar.

    PV is among the most expensive sources for energy; it's "free" only if one ignores the capital cost. (I'm comparing the wholesale price of energy, not the delivered cost.)

    My point is really more basic: Tesla needs to manage this secondary business in as streamlined a way as possible. The more complex, the more manhours and money it will take -- and Tesla doesn't have either to divert unnecessarily.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I say you are all speculating, no one knows for sure, yet. It's probably going to be one of the big box stores, and Walmart wouldn't be a surprise at this point, with the 80 stores in CA about to put massive PV arrays on, along with storage batteries. Walmart's focus is being greener, and providing emergency backup power. It would not be a stretch to see them install the SuperChargers either, given the connections with SolarCity/Tesla to the project.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Don't necessarily disagree with some of your points; although Elon has made verbal connection between the charging stations and solar (generally, not specific though)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So without solar you would envision a grid connection to slowly charge the batteries perhaps off peak and discharged them quickly on demand during the day? This hopefully would mitigate demand charges without PV arrays if the usage was low. If usage was high and the batteries were discharged, then Tesla would be charged the full impact of demand charges. (The same would be true of a PV powered battery of course.)

    Can you please elaborate as to why compare to wholesale? Why wouldn't the delivered cost be relevant, isn't that what Tesla would be paying?

    Thanks.

    Larry
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yep, that was my thinking.
    Because there is no economic reason to allow net metering in this way. It's a retail tariff design flaw: installing PV doesn't change the cost to the utility of installing or maintaining distribution or transmission, and consequently there's no reason to discount the wires charges through net metering.

    That's the rational answer. The answer from the rates perspective is that large C&I customers like Walmart typically pay their wires charges as a fixed sum based on the kW rating of their gear and the peak energy usage. Their energy price is pretty close to the wholesale energy price. So, net metering for a big box store isn't nearly as valuable as net metering for residential customers.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Discussion about the Motor Trend article went here: Motor Trend
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Another article, this time focusing more on options/shorts: Shaeffers Research - Tesla Motors' Pullback Doesn't Deter Option Bulls

    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Prepare for another leg down if news of the latest delays/supply issues hits the mainstream. Cash at the ready.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    IF the market sees this a parts supplier problem and delays are less than a month, an optimist would assume there won't be too much TSLA price impact. If delays are over a month, price will take a dive as investors will see Tesla as a one trick pony and a long delay could have a major revenue impact.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yep, this delay is certainly not going to help Tesla's liquidity.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wouldn't it be better to not discuss unconfirmed delays on this thread?
    �
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