Thứ Sáu, 28 tháng 10, 2016

TSLA Investor Discussions part 11

  • 1/1/2015
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    Model S will appeal to a much larger audience than is expected as just last week I was talking to a 2009 M5 owner who is ready to upgrade and had no idea that the Model S even existed. He is currently driving a 335i as his M5 has been in the shop for a week (this has been the norm). He studied the FAQ's and is ready for a test drive.

    Then there is a soccer mom (like my wife) who can drive around all day for pennies while hauling kids, stuff and be the safest car on the road.

    And grandparents who gets the white glove delivery to their home, the car is fully setup for them, mirrors, seat, steering wheel, re-gen, music, auto-A/C (yeah, they may never need to touch it) and never need to go to self serve gas station again (that might be worth it alone), not to mention the cool factor love from the kids.

    But, I digress...the stock today was kinda odd. Thought there should have been more investors "seeing the light" today. Maybe it's still the shorts staying put since their option to buy isn't coming due until later in the month? I really need to understand options better as this chart is perplexing: TSLA Options | Tesla Motors, Inc. Stock - Yahoo! Finance

    I get the idea of Calls and Puts but the prices and expiration dates don't add up. What does "Last" mean in this context vs Ask and Bid?
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    also it is worth noting they have over 13,000 worldwide reservations already and that is before the release date
    it seems of obvious that they should be able to sell 8000 more before the next year
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    I'm not a businessman, so I don't know how Tesla will address this, and I would not presume to give them advice. I think Elon Musk and the people around him have a bit more business accumen than I. It is a serious challenge, but I believe they are up to the task, and I don't think they would have begun design work on the car, or even founded the company without a strategy.

    Reservation holders up to now have been people willing to put up either $40,000 or $5,000 for a car that had not yet been built, to a company whose success was by no means certain, when those deposits were refundable, but not insured. Had the company gone bankrupt, which for a while was a real possibility, they'd have lost those deposits, and yet they still wanted this car badly enough to hand over their money and wait a year, in the case of late reservations, or several years, in the case of early reservations.

    One factor out of several why I did not reserve a Roadster in 2008 was that I'd have had to wait a year for it, and I wanted to get into an EV as soon as possible. So I bought the Xebra. Now that the first Model S have been delivered, and bankruptcy seems very unlikely, more people will reserve, and once the reservations have been fulfilled and the waiting time is a couple of weeks or a month, there will be a lot of buyers who didn't want to trust a new company with their money or just didn't want to wait a year. As the waiting time decreases, reservations will increase, and once you can walk into a store, configure a car, and have it delivered in two weeks, demand will increase to meet Tesla's production capability.

    More and more people are asking me "Is that a Tesla?" rather than "What's that?" And a few are even saying "Wow, a Tesla!" People are hearing about these cars. When I tell people that the Model S is coming out, they used to ask "What's that?" Now more and more of them are saying "Yes, I know. I read/heard about that." There's a thread somewhere talking about a thread on the Lotus forum: Lotus owners are getting upset because people see their car and think it's a Tesla!

    Yes, the big auto makers have lots of dealerships, but something like 300,000 Camrys are sold every year, and that car has lots of competition. Tesla is aiming for seven percent of that number and the S has no competition at all, unless you count the 75-mile Nissan Leaf.

    Meeting their sales goal is a challenge, and being risk-averse I would not bet my retirement fund on it. (And neither is the market, yet, apparently.) But it is achievable, and I believe Musk can do it. What I was and am willing to risk is that I bought my Roadster, knowing that if Tesla fails, there will be no service for it and at the first major problem it would be dead in the water and worthless. Reservation holders up to now have been willing to take that risk, but as production on the S ramps up to full speed, that risk will seem vanishingly small, and a lot more people will be willing to consider the car. It will happen slowly, and there will be no sudden spike in TSLA as overnight the market sees the light. But it will gradually rise as public confidence slowly grows, and Tesla becomes profitable, and the market gradually comes around.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Down 4% this morning while DJ is up. WTF?
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    Geez, I would have hated to see how the market would have reacted if the reviews on the Model S had been bad!
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    Yea, I've completely given up thinking Tesla's performance has any impact on it's stock value.
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    Daimler just shifted its shares around from what I can tell, it didn't actually sell any.

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    I now have no ideas what's going on... :confused:
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    Whoa!
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    yep...
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    I have no idea about the Daimler deal but I have an idea (or an opinion) about what is going on with the stock price.

    Smart money got in last week (smart money is informed people) in hope for a huge hike in price this week. The big increase did not come fast enough for short term minded people (are there is a lot of these animals out there in the wild) They are now selling. Taking a small profit. The smarter ones stay in. They know the old say "Buy the rumor, sell the news".

    So after these short-termers are gone, a new trend may start soon...

    Still have no ideas why Daimler is doing and why this particular timing. Anyone?
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Maybe, Abu Dhabi's state investors are regretting dumping their big stake in TSLA earlier this year and are now trying to get back in through the Daimler channel? Daimler probably has no say in all this...
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I'm not at all surprised to see us at these levels.

    The 50-day is at about $31 and the 200 is at about $30.60, so I don't see us dropping much lower than we are now, we should bounce off these levels. If we fall through, that could be bad.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Guys. Tesla is already a pretty expensive stock when you look at their fundamentals. They haven't turned a profit, and their revenue is at $185 Million despite trading at a 3.3B Market Cap. Toyota on the other hand has revenue of $223 Billion and its market cap is 120.3B. That means despite having over 1000X as much revenue as Tesla, Toyota's market cap is just 40X more. Clearly TSLA is being valued for its growth potential, but even the current stock price assumes a lot of growth. So don't always expect it to go up from its current price just because there's some positive news on the company.

    Also, it doesn't help that OIL has been getting crushed lately.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    You are sounding like JP. Not that I disagree.
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    In Tesla's case, I don't believe technical s matter at this point. Although I believe lots of people, day traders mostly are following and acting all in the same way because they all look at the same data, so the price moves accordingly.

    But I think we are beyond watching trend lines. News and reviews will come almost everyday now. Now is the time to be patient and enjoy the show.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    At current level, I think the stock is cheap, very cheap. (Please read back this comment in 2 years)
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    I was trying to get some updated data on short interest. The latest data on Nasdaq is for 5/31. Does anyone know how frequently this data is updated?

    Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
    5/31/2012 25,850,776 1,393,753 18.547602
    5/15/2012 24,902,392 1,774,098 14.036650
    4/30/2012 23,483,222 780,148 30.100983
    4/13/2012 23,529,330 1,632,847 14.410003
    3/30/2012 24,238,623 1,203,607 20.138320
    3/15/2012 25,058,088 855,832 29.279214
    2/29/2012 25,124,319 1,119,129 22.449886
    2/15/2012 24,628,815 1,231,965 19.991489
    1/31/2012 25,167,825 1,261,240 19.954826
    1/13/2012 24,447,097 1,363,129 17.934544
    12/30/2011 23,717,388 851,090 27.867074
    12/15/2011 24,575,682 1,185,463 20.730872
    11/30/2011 24,379,998 881,324 27.662923
    11/15/2011 24,874,114 1,594,899 15.596043
    10/31/2011 24,934,508 934,421 26.684447
    10/14/2011 23,587,621 1,181,375 19.966244
    9/30/2011 21,973,122 1,045,374 21.019388
    9/15/2011 21,189,149 688,740 30.765091
    8/31/2011 20,787,279 812,799 25.574932
    8/15/2011 20,099,319 1,630,559 12.326643
    7/29/2011 19,261,081 1,093,392 17.615897
    7/15/2011 18,209,335 1,048,507 17.366918
    6/30/2011 17,666,293 1,659,730 10.644076


    Read more: Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest - NASDAQ.com
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I believe they will publish the numbers for 6/15 today after market close. Usually, short interest data is published 10-days-ish after the last day of the month and the 15th.
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    Well he's a turd. But the numbers don't lie so I still look at this as a risky stock to own. Anyone that expects TSLA to simply go up is delusional even if the reviews are mostly positive. Remember, if just one issue with the battery pops up and the media runs with it, this stock could lose 30% in a day. You have to ask yourself if you're prepared to withstand such a drop. And that doesn't even consider the downward bias of the broader markets and the drop in oil. You can't go broke taking profits.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I am in for the long run. I have no doubt Tesla will be successful. The stock price could loose big or gain big in short periods of time. But in the end, rationality comes back. Stock price always goes up in the long term for successful companies.

    Your writing makes me think you are one of those short-thinking investor.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I agree - Tesla will be extremely successful.

    I have run some lipos for many years and left many untouched for many years and let the charge drop very low and they work just fine and hold a large capacity still
    To me that seems to be the main questionable thing about the EV and I think many people are worried how long after a warranty the battery lasts
    I am pretty confident that w/ Teslas thermal management, the batteries will not be an issue

    After driving the S :biggrin:- Tesla will WIN!
    telling people about it is one thing showing and feeling it is another
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    Can we say that?
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    You mean short term investor? I do try to minimize short term risk. I believe in the long term success of Tesla, but I'm not shy to take profits when I can. So far it's worked well and I've already made a nice chunk of money towards an S.
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    Why would you ask that?
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    Yes.

    I usually don't invest in the stock market, I find it to be a casino. Usually, I invest in my own business. To me, buying a stock is just like having your own business, it is in fact that. I am one of the owners of Tesla. Would you sell your business because it's value drop in the minds of your partners?

    I don't do gambling.

    Edit: (but if someone is crazy enough to give me tons of money for my stock, it's a different story)
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I think we just did :wink:
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    I'm panicking, I'm panicking. Just kidding, but I am confused.
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    Where is the califlower, haven't heard from him for a while...
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I'm waiting to take profit, but not at only a few percent. If TSLA does crash, I'll follow it down in flames. That would probably mean I can never afford the Tesla I want. That's life.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This probably explains the recent dip:

    http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-06-25/daimler-investment-arm-s-tesla-stake-cut-by-aabar-change

    On the good side:

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  • 1/1/2015
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    It's a small company with some big stockholders. Whenever one of these sells a chunk of stock (which might be for reasons related to Tesla, or might be because they need cash for something unrelated) the price of TSLA will show it. If you're in for the long term, as I am, you just don't care about these swings.

    I agree with the above. The market has already assumed that Tesla will succeed and grow (in spite of naysayers like JP and some on Motley Fool) and its price reflects that. The big investors are smart enough not to over-react on what amounts to short-term news.

    I agree with this also. TSLA has very real risk, and the markets will be skittish because of that. We here all assume Tesla will succeed, and I firmly believe it will. But the market knows that it's not a sure thing, and that guarantees volatility. I'm not smart enough to know when it's going to bounce up and when it's going to drop down, so I don't try to make money buying and selling. I just hold for that long-term growth that I believe we'll see over the course of the next five and ten years.
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    He posted in another thread.
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    If Tesla was going to go down because of negative media and lies I would just about be willing to put everything I have into it to try to help (which wouldn't do much), like a neighbor you grew up with or are very close to that has medical problems as a result of a freak accident or something

    This is only because I have been to the Factory a few times and think their production line is tits and products are better than made in USA products of recently

    almost Germanic or Swiss! expect no compromises
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    usa!


    .
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    EDIT,,
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    Maybe these Aabar folks were shorting Tesla and they got bailed-out by their good friends at Blackstar?

    Something is coming, smart money covering their buts?
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    EDIT,,
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    What if they where short already and they covered with Blackstar shares, they then turned around and "gave back" the shares to who ever loaned them. That "who ever" guy is now liquidating some of those?
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    EDIT,,
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    Someone had to ruin the party. I wonder how fast they went?
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    Short numbers for 6/15 are out. With a staggering 26,522,286 shares shorted and a mind blowing 34 days to cover, we are in for some interesting time to come.

    6/15/2012 26,522,286 780,221 33.993299
    5/31/2012 25,850,776 1,393,753 18.547602
    5/15/2012 24,902,392 1,774,098 14.036650
    4/30/2012 23,483,222 780,148 30.100983
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    Anyone knows when the next deliveries will happen? I mean deliveries to regular folks?
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    What does "days to cover" actually mean? I mean, a quick google shows it's shorts divided by average daily volume, but why is that important?
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I have no idea what's a reasonable low to expect, so I'm probably pricing myself too low, but I've got my limit order in for another 50 shares at $25, and I'll be happy if that executes. That would bring me to 250.

    I had my Roadster up to 90 once, for about 3 seconds. It felt solid, but that speed still scared me. :crying: I think 75 is a reasonable top limit for test-drive cars where there are people other than the driver in the car. Especially if one of them is a Tesla employee! 65 is scary enough if I'm a passenger and I don't know how good a driver the driver is. :wink:
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  • 1/1/2015
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    If these guys realize all in the same time their bet is wrong, in theory it means that, with current average volume, it would take 34 days for all these morons to buy all the shares they need. Assuming there is enough shares to buy. 34 days of pure panic. Can you imagine?

    Of course it wont last 34 days, volumes will be much higher. But hey, how about a two week panic? ;)

    Edit: If there is not enough shares to buy, is what's called a short squeeze. That is fun.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Hey, I know this! :smile:

    Days to cover is the number of days it would take for all the shorts to buy enough shares to cover their obligation, assuming the average volume of shares traded over some recent time period. (Not sure if they average over a year, or a month, or what.) It's important because if the shorts have to cover in, say 5 days, but the days to cover is 10, then the shorters would have to buy double the average daily volume just to cover. This would be expected to drive the price up because it represents a demand greater than the supply. (The much anticipated short squeeze.)
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    Volume was double average today.
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    EDIT,,
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    And the stock is down. A completely contrarian day.

    Interesting to watch. Sit back, relax, popcorn, beer, enjoy the show.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    It's all and Illusion!
    My wife tells me that all the time.. . . . and the Tesla Illusion is an excellent one that I am glad to be part of, no one can have my shares anymore ;>
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    Well, if someone want my shares at, let's say $500 per kitty, I will think about it ;)
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    I might jump on that illusion too but they can't have it all....I'm keeping at least 1 lol

    edit: you're right I should have a sell order at $500 for when it bumps
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    Great idea, I will change my sell order tomorrow ;)
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    Sure: Totally Uninformed Repetitive Denouncer
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    I'm easy. I'd sell half my shares at $500 per.
    I could buy the Model S I want, and pay for enough superchargers to get anywhere I want in the country.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Yep. We are on the right side of the bet, patience is our greatest tool.

    I am following two of what I call "bubbles", no 1 is the Canadian real estate bubble, irrational behavior from people, who think prices will ever be higher, they put all their eggs is the same basket, use their home as an ATM, crazy. I guess you guys know what I'm taking about...

    I find it amazing Canadians, after watching the US family get underwater, did exactly the same thing, same financial dumbness.

    The second bubble I'm following is an inverted bubble. People are stuck in the "Status-quo syndrome" they don't see the obvious like we see here. They don't see the change coming.

    When general sentiment change in bubbles, landing can be brutal, take offs can be equally spectacular if general wisdom is proven wrong and everyone is placed in front of undeniable facts.

    Funny that both "bubbles" I am following are just about to burst...

    Edit: Look at this wonderful chart: Hardcore Value: Canada Vs US Home Prices

    Then look at TSLA chart and notice the pretty much unchanged price since two years. Irrational. Where is the value added? Where is the "change the world factor"?
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    EDIT,,
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    The technicals always matter in the short term, the fundamentals matter in the long term. If you aren't planning on buying or selling in the next month you can ignore this information, but if you are planning on making a move soon, these are the numbers that you should watch.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    DJI futures unchanged at 2AM Eastern. Not that TSLA was "doin' the Dow" much earlier today.
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    A lot of stuff is nuts about tsla. My guess is that a lot of day traders are enjoying the wild ride.
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    How many shares are in a "kitty"? This is a collective term I've not encountered. To me, a kitty is a small furry animal that purrs and catches mice.

    If someone offered me $500 each for my 200 shares of TSLA I'd sell in a heartbeat, and I'd turn around and buy as many shares as that $100,000 would get me.

    I don't think anyone's going to offer me more than market price for my shares. Why would they, when they could pay less on the market? And if in some wild make-believe world there was a short squeeze that shot the price to $200, I'm sure it wouldn't last long enough for me to get in on it.
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    My "Kitties" are well taken care of, I watch them every morning, talk to them and watch them grow slowly.

    All 1080 of them.

    ;)
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    It could shoot that high. No one with half a brain would buy my shares at $500, a wild computer could. And you're right, it would not last very long. So the right thing to do is to place a sell order, open a beer and wait for the machines to go nuts.

    The cost for this: $0.00

    For anything else, try Master Card.
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    Looks like the big sellers are gone. Very thin volume this morning.

    I can smell fear.
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    Dowin'?
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    Man o man that's a lot of kitties. How do you keep all the litter boxes clean? :crying: :wink: :biggrin: I only ever had the one kitty and I cleaned his box twice every day.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    So I had a dream last night that Tesla stock fell to $7 and I was personally yelling at Elon. What would you guys do if the stock price lost 75% in a day? Hold on and hope for a recovery I would assume would be most everyone's answer.

    But ya. Me and my 120 shares were very scared this morning ha.
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    Seriously, if you don't mind my asking (don't answer if you don't feel like it) how high do you or would you set your sell order? If you set it too high it's just silly. If you set it too low you could end up selling out when the price is legitimately on the way up.

    I'd be interested to know at what price others have set sell orders in anticipation of a possible short squeeze as well.
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    For me it would depend: If the stock fell to $7 on news that the company had gone bankrupt I'd tell myself, "Well, it was a good try." If it fell to $7 because of an investor panic, and I thought the company would survive, I'd probably buy another $10,000 worth.
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    I don't want to tell my exact $$, but my first one is in the 43-45$ range. I will be adjusting it as the price of the stock moves (inches up, I hope).
    I have another lot of my shares up for sale in the 75-80$ range.
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    Repeat after me: Before hitting the "Post" button I will get up from my computer and take a walk around the block. Before hitting the "Post" button I will get up.....

    You back? Nice day today, eh? Take another look at the short interest. Look at the actual number of shares shorted. Oh, well, look at that - actually less shares shorted than 2 weeks ago. OMG!!!!!

    Yup, you read it right. The number of shares shorted DROPPED by about 325,000. The number of days to cover went up because the average trading volume dropped 1.4 million shares/day to 780K shares/day.

    OK, so what does that mean? Well, the sample size is too small so far. Maybe some shorts decided to cover due to Tesla saying they would deliver cars. Remember, this is short interest as of about 2 weeks ago - before the actual deliveries. It could also just be noise that that the number of shares shorted will rise at the next report. At any rate, there was nothing to get alarmed about. Volume was pretty high last week, so average trading volume will probably be higher at the next report, making the days to cover drop even if the number of shares shorted increases slightly.

    Now, wasn't that a nice walk? The sun is shining here and the temp is in the high 60's. The Tesla factory is humming along making cars, reservation holders are getting test drives, and reviews of the car itself are all positive.
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    Go get Elon Lunch somewhere and go for a walk in the forest or maybe a round of disc golf
    I'd keep what I have and buy twice what I have.
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    I would hope I woke up before the heart attack!
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    Volume today looks like it will stay below 1/3 of yesterday, and far less than average.

    Update: It was at 700,000 when I first posted this. It ended at 929,000 50 minutes later, 229,000 trades higher. There's 6.5 hours in a trading day (neglecting after/pre hours), or 390 minutes. During the last 12.8% of the day's trading, 25% of the volume changed. My conclusion: Day traders love TSLA.
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    EDIT,,
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    Shorts increased from 25,850,776 to 26,522,286, from 5/31/2012 to 6/15/2012. (Note that's more than 26 million now.)

    Not sure how large an effect that has, but surely contributes to the stock price not going up (aside from Europe etc.). Also surprising (to me) that the shorts increase with otherwise rather positive news in those two weeks, and without the stock price going up (on a larger scale). EDIT: Though gas prices are currently going down.
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    Ooops- my bad.

    Cauliflower, I was wrong - TIME TO START PANICKING!!!!!!
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    EDIT,,
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    Doesn't that mean when they are forced to buy, you'll get a share of those billion?
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    EDIT,,
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    What?? You want it all. I think you'd be willing to share some with the rest of us on TMC.
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    I think silicone valley alone could keep Tesla alive as a company( and a very good growing one). Many of the investors know really nothing about what will become of Tesla. just a thought
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    Who does, really?
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    You mean silicone valley or silicon valley? Silicone valley is the nick name of the San Fernando valley in LA...silicone being the material used for implants and other procedures for superficial glorification of body looks. :wink:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Any thoughts on why health care reform is bad for Tesla? Seems to have fallen very soon after the ruling. I would imagine this bodes well for Obama's re-election. I really don't get it. I seriously don't believe the freak movements in this stock have anything to do with normal trading. But what do I know, I'm of the belief that a number of groups are conspiring to manipulate this stock.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Doesn't have any affect on Tesla, it's just people selling the whole market.

    We just now touched the 200-day. I suspect we have reached a near-term bottom here. I'm going to put a few more dollars to work as I think the odds have now shifted in our favor and we are much more likely to rally here than drop further. That said, I could be wrong, if we do close significantly below this level, we might be in for quite a drop the next few days.

    The rally might not happen tomorrow either, we might need a couple of days to gather steam before pressing higher.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    haha .. yep
    I guess both of the Si based valleys would make Tesla a very large CA company ( I was meaning the Chip one but the vanity one works too). Sales could easily be 10,000 in Cali alone
    The cars just aren't available yet to the people who would buy them with out a second thought.

    LOTS of people would if they had the chance to drive one!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    would love it if someone would explain what is causing this yoyo effect. These ridiculous swings on no real bad news, don't make sense. I refuse to believe this is normal buying/selling. When is the Supercharger announcement coming? Would love to see some sort of sustained positive movement instead of this constant swing movement between 28 and 33. Why people are refusing to recognize any positive news as legitimate is beyond me.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Despite all the positive news around Tesla of late, the naysayers are still arguing that

    a) Tesla may not be able to ramp up production to the levels that they want to get to
    b) There may be significant defects lurking in the cars coming from the initial production run. Need more on-the-road data from atleast a couple of thousand cars in the hands of real customers
    c) Ultimately, there may still not be enough of a market for premium EVs at the Model S's price point(s). Need the pace of reservations to pick up for the S mainly and for the X as well in a few months.

    So, I'd not be surprised if TSLA doesn't go anywhere for a few months and, if anything, could slide backwards if b), in particular, comes true a la the Fisker Karma.

    Disclaimer: I'm long on TSLA.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    and c) we won't know until next quarterly meeting where current S and X reservation numbers will probably be released. Until then, the stock will do its thing.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    They are in the denial phase. Next is fear. We may already be in the fear zone.

    Next-up after fear: shear panic. Then comes the acceptation.

    Then, they do it all over again.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Technically I believe the psychological stage after denial (according to the Psychology 101 class I took in high school) is anger. Considering the increasing number and increasing ridiculousness of the JP articles, I would say that anger has set in.

    After that it's bargaining, depression, and finally acceptance.

    It'll be great when JP finally hits depression...
    ... I mean... acceptance :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I like Steph's ideas!

    &GG
    a) I have no doubt they will be fine once the 'workers' get a few cars through the line and settle in to their groove.
    b)defects happen but it seems they have been bustin ass to iron stuff out an quality test all via rough customers and the likes.
    c) I mean, Who the hell would buy a $500 + 'smart' phone anyways
    (I'm waiting form my $100K cell phone that takes you places and makes you:biggrin:too)

    Res' will pick up when they are seen (and not heard) on the streets. The first smart phones (or cell phones 4 that matter) were maybe owned by 1 in 100 one month (others had pagers and a Payphone) and the next year phones are owned by more like 1 in 10.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Welcome to the stock market! At any given time there are LOTS of groups trying to manipulate EVERY stock. That's what the market is: People trying to get any given stock to go up while others try to get it to go down, all in hopes of making a buck in the short term. If you're in it for the long term, none of this matters. If you are in it for the short term, you are just gambling. No different than playing craps in Las Vegas.

    I agree with all of the above. (I agree that the nay-sayers are saying, and many believe, all that stuff. An that this affects the market. Not that they're right.) And while I don't have as much in it as some of you, I am long on Tesla. You pretty much have to believe in the company to own a Roadster. :biggrin:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There is one HUGE difference in that you are contributing to market liquidity which is necessary for a successful market.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's a speculative stock, plain and simple. Even though electric vehicles are a sure thing to the people on this website many people still remain unconvinced. I'm about 99% sure that you won't really start to see the stock take off till at least mid 2013. Once the factory is at full productions, we have a clearer picture of their sales, and they report earning and we get to see their margins will the stock really take off.

    People see that they can build the car....great. They want to see if Tesla can actually make money off of the car.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This may be to generalized of a question, but I have been thinking about buying 100 shares of stock. Is now a good time? I realize no one can be certain because it's to volatile to tell, but do you think it will get lower such as we saw before around 28-29?

    I am in the stock long, well as long as it takes for my reservation to come up this time next year. I have no shares currently. I have very little experience with shares.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Think about it this way. 100 Shares moves to $28 from current $31 you've lost $300 dollars. If you in it for the long haul, I'm hoping $300 will have very little meaning when the stock hits $40+ or up $900 from the point you bought it. Nevertheless, every purchase is a gamble and you have to willing to loose it all. That said, I'm very long with Tesla and trade it daily with the market swings. I was very successful until May. Now, I'm working my way back.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If you want 100 shares, I suggest buying 50 today, if the price drops, buy another 25 if it gets ridiculous, but buy your last 25. If the price takes off ever higher and you only get 50, that's a high quality problem.

    Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You want us to give you advice about a stock that is so volatile it's like fighting a forest fire with constantly shifting winds? Look, if we say yes, we need a promise from you that you have a great sense of humor and are a very quick learner, so you can figure out what's going on and contribute a lot of reassuring insight to the forum. Otherwise, we suggest this... get a test drive if you haven't already, and decide if it's worth the risk based on the product the company is selling.

    I was up $4K a short time ago. Today, I'm down between $100 and $200, depending on what minute it is. I was laughing the day I was up, and I'm laughing today. Get ready to laugh. BTW, this is the first time I've ever invested in the stock market. I watched too many of my friends over the years get cocky and lose their shirts. Today might be the day mine blows off! Whee!!!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm complete fine and am not emotionally attached to money I spend on the stock market. I did have some shares in TSLA, 30 of them. But since I am saving up for the car I figured I could put some more in. I am not concerned about losing ALL the money I invest in stocks and at least from my limited experience perception that's how one should be.

    Citizen you have a good point, I don't have to go all in at once.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    Might I suggest you not 'invest' your money in a very speculative stock (at this point in time). And that you not invest (which implies long term) money you will need to pay for the car.

    Another point is that you are laying all your eggs in one basket. If something goes really bad with Tesla you will loose your reservation payment and the money in Tesla stocks.Prudent? I suggest some diversification.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    For conspiracy theorists: Is it possible the big companies that would love to see Tesla fail are shorting Tesla to keep downward pressure on the stock?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There's a quote that goes something like "Never attribute to malice what can be explained by stupidity."
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Exactly, and that's not how the Smart Money does it. They know that they can't pick the bottom and the top. Buy low, sell high is impossible. Instead, buy on the way down and sell on the way up. The last few days we've been on the way down so it is a good time to start a position. Start being the key word there.

    Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I need TSLA to go back down to around $26 so I can pick up a few more. Right now I'm at my "minimum" position since I sold some last month. Since we won't see huge gains for a while, we may as well have wildly volatile prices. I capitalized on the last "one-day plummet", and I'd like to see that again! ;)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If we knew the right time to buy and/or sell any stock, we'd all be rich. Nobody can tell you that.

    But I will say that I do not consider one year to be long term. I consider 10 to 20 years to be long term, five years to be medium term, anything less to be short term. In a year from now, the market still might not be convinced. Maybe the stock will be higher. Maybe it will be lower. It's a gamble. I would not gamble with the money that I need for something I need or want. And I would not plan a purchase based on money I hoped to win by gambling.

    I own 200 shares of TSLA because I feel good about the company. It's not money I need for anything else and I have no other plans for that money.

    What would be the point? Tesla will succeed or fail based on its products and whether or not people buy them. Not on the market value of the stock. In fact, a lower stock price will make the P:E ratio look better. :wink:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well when the stock doesn't perform it puts a negative perspective and outlook on the company. Just more pessimism. I'm just wondering where 1 Billion $ of shorts are coming from!!
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