1/1/2015
guest I think it's a marketing shot. Tesla has used it for a long time. Like years.�
1/1/2015
guest Outside of my core long position (stock and calls), I haven't gotten them yet.
I bought the puts while TSLA was around $234-236. I just sold the one last put I had from when we were in the $260's...
I'm expecting to buy some calls sometime before ER, preferably on significant weakness. I'll get the rest after ER, probably a smattering of dates no earlier than Jan '15. It depends on how cheap the longer term calls end up being as to how far out.
I'm not a buyer long or short in the $220's before ER.�
1/1/2015
guest Indeed, the earliest use of that photo that I can find in short order comes from 2011!
Tesla Model S Pricing Official: Drive One Away for 50 Grand | TechnoBuffalo�
1/1/2015
guest I decided that tomorrow/rest of the week will have us moving significantly in one direction (???)...so I bought 220 calls/puts for about the same cost per contract.�
1/1/2015
guest It's bogus and Cramer is doing his old trick.�
1/1/2015
guest ^ What he said:wink:�
1/1/2015
guest So lets see if I get this straight. One tweet was retweeted based on nothing and attributed to wards. Wards editor denies knowledge of such a story. Cramer's operation quotes this:
"The electric car company is struggling with slowing demand for its flagship Model S vehicles, tabulating a 26.3% year-to-year drop in unit sales for Tesla during September, David E. Zoia, editorial director of Ward's Auto, told TheStreet.com.
which isn't even a complete sentence, that again attributes the statement to the dude who earlier denied it
The only difference I see in this maliciously false information is that the word "tabulated" is now being trotted out.
What I think: Insiders see a Q3 beat, desperately trying to recover a position prior to the stock price never being south of $250 again and Q3 report.:scared:�
1/1/2015
guest The market manipulation is ridiculous and transparent. It makes me wonder how many individual investors are fleeced by the perpetrators of these dirty tactics (with shares generally, and not just TSLA) every day.
Individual stocks are a bloodier game than ever in the Internet age.�
1/1/2015
guest I think it's the typical short attack that we haven't seen in a while. Shorts must have noticed that high flyers like NFLX and AMZN have been getting hit on their ERs, along with Daimler and Toyota selling shares and low gas prices. They probably realized that with the recent low volume that they could tweet some old, incorrect numbers and dump some shares and it would lend legitimacy to the false rumor.�
1/1/2015
guest Judging by the one after another stories from the street I think we know who at least one of the shorter is..
�
1/1/2015
guest We've been through this before, Cramer can't buy stocks much less short them per his contract with CNBC. He makes his money by investing in real estate.�
1/1/2015
guest Cramer's opinion of anything is in my opinion, motivated by his corporate partners and anyone who has a stake in one of his investments, or pays him for his opinion. While he can't personally invest in stocks, he can be compensated for saying nonsense, that he can claim was simply an accident instead of evidence of collusion. CNBC is full of people who have no integrity. I have met Cramer and in my opinion, he is a professional business man, with no intention of telling the truth, unless it pays more than lying.
Unfortunately it's not a crime to be an irresponsible journalist, who is true to his reputation for being incompetent, and just happens to do a poor job reporting on things that influence the market.�
1/1/2015
guest I was thinking his "charitable trust"�
1/1/2015
guest <irony>Yes and we all know what an honest, stand-up kind of guy Cramer is, he has no friends, family or aquaintances in the financial industry with whome he could share information with secretely, before making various announcements, recommendations etc. </irony>�
1/1/2015
guest Excellent facetiousness, Johan. And here is where the real Jim Cramer explains how he manipulated the market when he was a hedge fund manager: Jim Cramer Explains How The Stock Market Is Manipulated - YouTube
Today's action had all the signs of a coordinated bear attack. They turned what should have been good news about the leasing program into cynicism regarding demand. Some manipulator must have provided friends on the The Wall Street Journal with interesting "news" about declining US sales. That was apparently based on a poorly researched Wards Automotive survey that was released several weeks ago, yet published by the WSJ today as though it were fresh authoritative news. There was no mention of the three-week plant shutdown during the quarter. But they were quick to associate this alleged sales slowdown with the new leasing program, as though it were needed to boost current demand. The hedge fund bots and headline stealing parasite online publishers immediately acted on the "news". Shortly thereafter the results of the Consumer Reports reliability survey were revealed. The media used the term "average" in an ambiguous fashion that may have made it appear that CR's overall highest ever rating of the Model S was now average rather than just the minor reliability concerns.
Even after the misdirection began to be revealed, seeds of doubt had already been planted in investors' minds before the upcoming earnings report. This became especially effective after big names like Amazon and Ford disappointed the market after their reports. Whatever disappointment there could be in the Tesla earnings report, that may have already been expressed by the market.
As usual when the hedge fund bots go on a rampage, today shareholders with tight stop loss limits toppled each other over like a lineup of dominoes. That makes it cheap for the funds to do their dirty deed. Now until the earnings report the hedge funds have seven trading days for quietly buying back shares at a discounted price. If the earnings report and outlook look any better than what was painted today, those buyers should profit handsomely.
- - - Updated - - -
Benzinga: Credit Suisse Thinks WSJ Report On Tesla's Sales Figures Is Misleading
Link: Credit Suisse Thinks WSJ Report On Tesla Motors Inc's Sales Figures Is Misleading | Benzinga�
1/1/2015
guest I think you are insinuating some pretty awful things about a man that you do not know. I'm not sure how such unsubstantiated claims are any better than the ones being criticized here from WardsAuto. In fact, I find it much worse since we are criticizing numbers and the process used to come up with those numbers, and you are attacking a man's character because he disagrees with your opinion.
I expect better from the members of this community.�
1/1/2015
guest Elon's tweet means we'll almost certainly see a very nice jump today. So, congrats to everyone who took advantage of this opportunity!
I would have put more money into TSLA yesterday if I hadn't already put my last (investement) dollar into TSLA the last time we were at $220. The market can be really irrational sometimes!�
1/1/2015
guest I mean, I had the feeling that things were being irrational as well. I am really glad that Elon is not afraid to tweet things
The unfortunate thing is that I am sorta stuck on my weeklies until Thursday since I bought them from a stock sale...�
1/1/2015
guest Since I'm in the Social chat thread, has anyone ever compared TSLA and CP (Canadian Pacific Railway) over the last few years? Awfully similar curves since Hunter Harrison was brought in. Just interesting to see two completely different companies in two completey different industries ascend in a similar manner.
edit: I bring this up as the share prices are nearly the same currently. CP's climb has been much slower with less volatility and I often wonder what if I held CP instead...�
1/1/2015
guest Well I am glad I put all available cash into weekly calls yesterday. Unfortunately that amounted to 2 contracts...�
1/1/2015
guest Don't feel bad, it was 3 contracts for me when I bought yesterday as well. It was all I could get my hands on in such short notice. But the one set of contracts is currently up 285% and the other 210% and still climbing as the price goes up! So it may have been very little cash, but that cash is quickly becoming a decent chunk of change�
1/1/2015
guest I didn't buy the right contracts. I was astonished to see ATM weekly calls selling for $7. So a $7 increase this week was priced in? to the options market. truly that was telling us something. I bought $200 ITM (and already flipped them).�
1/1/2015
guest My 'play' was to buy equal numbers of $220 calls and puts before close yesterday. While I was not sure of the direction I felt we would see volatility today. So, closed out both positions when we hit $235 (maybe a bit early??) but realized a nice profit on the calls that offset the loss on the puts very nicely.�
1/1/2015
guest Well, I got out of my puts early this morning for a small profit. I took a look at the call side and just didn't want to gamble on the high prices, but of course, they're now double that.
However, if we go irrationally high here before ER, I'll buy puts again. I'm still thinking that ER is going to be tepid and the stock will react badly like Q3 last year.�
1/1/2015
guest We are now in squeeze territory -- shorts are covering and amplifying movement upwards. They tried desperately to hold us under 230 for an hour, but when the dam broke it broke hard. I'm out of my trade already, but it's always fun to watch them run for cover.�
1/1/2015
guest Yeah, I think it is understood that by the nature of options, your decisions to buy and sell are always changing with the stock price and when we post our data here it is always going to be after the fact. I think what helps is all of us continuing to post the sentiments for directions and how we are deciding to play since it helps each of us see the wins (and losses) of others to better ourselves in the future and make good decisions.
With that in mind if we bump well over 240 (as it looks like we are on a path to do) I will likely have to reevalute before the ER with what I am going to do with my Dec/Jan options. The good news is that I will have enough cash at the end of this week to enable a straddle without having to really sell of my Dec/Jan stuff if I am leaning in that direction.
See and I am still having "fun" with it since I am sorta stuck in my position for a few days... Otherwise I would have sold everything for sure once we broke above 237.50. But I do like this mini-squeeze since I think we have been seeing the shorts piling in again in full force since coming off the 290 highs. This failure to break the 200DMA is likely hurting them badly since they were heavily gambling on a break (at least that is how it appears to me).�
1/1/2015
guest Bought a bunch of weekly calls yesterday and some more this morning at $229. I haven't sold any yet - just going to ride out the day. This reminds me of the Detroit Auto Show announcement in January where positive hard sales numbers (although not as specific as that time) are released unexpectedly and the stock rockets. We all tend to think that new Model reveals, awards,e tc. will move the price but they don't have as much effect anymore. Now the big movers are real financial numbers.�
1/1/2015
guest Win is a win. Congrats all!
I was saving 1/3 of my intended buy for after Q3, but couldn't resist yesterday and pushed it all in. The icing on the cake was 15 contracts of 230 weeklies at 2.5, closed them out at 7.5. I love Twitter.�
1/1/2015
guest May be a blessing in disguise! Good luck, remember Detroit 2014, the stock just kept surging into Friday. I hope you're laughing all the way to the bank on Thursday.�
1/1/2015
guest Yeah, same. Stupid SEC rules regarding stock sales... :cursing:
I generally prefer to set a strategy and stick with it, this way I am more in control over when I get out and in and get out of the game of trying to time things perfectly. I figured it would take 3 days to recover back from the FUD, which might have been the case had it not been for Elon throwing something out from left field. Thankfully the strike price is 232 for the important one that I am worried about, so as long as we stay up into the high 230s it should still turn out ok.
And if you are right, we might see more covering tomorrow with a continued rise into the 240s�
1/1/2015
guest Following my own advice of buying calls when the stock drops for no good reason, I bought Oct 31 225's yesterday.
What a GIFT from the WSJ!!�
1/1/2015
guest The conditions do feel a lot like the Detroit saga. I think Elon has thought through that if the actual Q3 earnings report don't live up to the tone of his tweet the stock will be volatile (he doesn't care about high or low, but he does care about volatile).. I'm personally expecting nice juicy bits in the earnings report, including a possible invitation extended for Model X beta reveal in Nov/Dec because the timing would make it right to discuss during the call.�
1/1/2015
guest Makes you want to sing "and the squeeze is on, it's on the street!" To the tune of the popular 80's song.
Now the question is when do I jump off the weekly train.�
1/1/2015
guest Looks like bulls are back from their celebratory lunch and resumed buying.�
1/1/2015
guest Well, I put in an order overnight to try to widen the 210/220 spread I sold, but it didn't go through. Oh well. Largely did spreads for margin reasons - and the reason I sold puts instead of buying calls was because I expected a recovery to 230ish, at least not to drop under 220, and given the premiums this seemed like the safest bet.
Completely paid for the top-end retina iMac I just got with one trade, so that's nice. I do need to go bigger on days like these though.�
1/1/2015
guest I rarely buy weekly calls and decided not to yesterday because I didn't like how big the premiums were and because an irrational drop in the stock can last more than one day. I did buy back a covered call (11/22 270) yesterday I sold when TSLA was ~252. I don't think the magnitude of today's bounce is really justified, as Elon's tweet doesn't give us any information rational people didn't already know about Q3, so I sold a new covered call (11/22 255) and bought a couple protective puts (11/22 210) to limit the potential losses on my medium and long term calls (or just capitalize on a slump back to the 200 day moving average).�
1/1/2015
guest I bought a one strike otm strangle yesterday. I sold the put at open this morning and got 1/3 of what I paid for it back. I still have the call.
I also still have a jan 15 270 call that I'm trying to decide what to do with too. I have other jan 15's but they are all ITM not quite as concerned about those, but I think I want to be rid of them too by this time next week.
Planning on my strangle play again for the ER/CC.�
1/1/2015
guest Glad I held a few at the money weeklies with my proceeds -- wow what a squeeze.�
1/1/2015
guest Drat! Sold those calls from yesterday too early.
Can't complain...High class problem!�
1/1/2015
guest I also had Weekly 225 calls. Sold way too early for only 100%. Was not expecting this big a run up, kicking myself now.�
1/1/2015
guest Absolutely nothing wrong with taking a 100% gain off the table! :wink:�
1/1/2015
guest I'm not sure what to do here... We seem to have good resistance in the $240s and yet it still keeps on going...�
1/1/2015
guest I bought Nov 7 $237.50 yesterday, since I was sure it would come back up, just not as quickly as it did. Sold half for double the price today, and now I'm riding the rest through the earnings.�
1/1/2015
guest We hit +$20 so time for the obligatory post. Cheers all!
�
1/1/2015
guest I jumped off my weekly trains and caught another one in case this goes into tomorrow. Used a very small percentage of my gains and bought some $255's for .30.
My otm jan 15 is gone now too.�
1/1/2015
guest TSLA market cap back to over $30 Bn. All is well�
1/1/2015
guest Best single day gains ever for me today. Could have been so much better. I had the cash, but not the conviction to make some serious bets.�
1/1/2015
guest This is definitely reminding me of the Detroit Auto Show run up. Started with what people felt was near the bottom, some news (not complete, but still good to hear) about 'sales/deliveries' being better than what was speculated resulting in a short squeeze. I have been buying and selling calls all day long. I am still not convinced that we will hold this momentum through Q3ER but I am enjoying the action today.
- - - Updated - - -
^THIS :wink:�
1/1/2015
guest Ugh. I've been sitting mostly on the sidelines after having been burned one too many times with short term options. This news is undoubtedly good, but my delta was only minimally impacted. Better than losing money I guess.
Congrats to all who had the guts to get in yesterday.�
1/1/2015
guest Congrats! This ranks as about #2 or #3 best for me and though I wish I'd gone in bigger, I am pleased with my thesis and faith that truth would win out against this kind of blatant misinformation. That Elon himself quashed the lies make it even sweeter.
Squeeze city.�
1/1/2015
guest Ahhh how I love Tesla Tuesdays :wink:�
1/1/2015
guest 50 day SMA at $254-and-change, here we come!�
1/1/2015
guest Gosh, I hope so.
$222 seems like such a long way down now.�
1/1/2015
guest #2 or #3 for me as well. Feb 25 of this year I was sitting on a ridiculous amount of med term options I hadn't flipped from the ER.
I basically went all-in after the wierd Adam Jonas note on Sept 15. I still need some help for that move to be above water...�
1/1/2015
guest Closed out half of my Nov 260's now for some sweet gains. Seems on days like these we always loose momentum in the last hour of trading. Keeping half for tomorrow or later this week if we see a continued squeeze and a gap up tomorrow???�
1/1/2015
guest Ah, how I love the smell of short-squeeze in the morning.�
1/1/2015
guest Damn, looks like I missed the upswing, again. Was waiting until after a some solar ERs and felt there was more short term movement there than in TSLA.�
1/1/2015
guest Congrats to all those that have done well. I think the hardest thing about days like this is actually holding on throughout the day. We often underestimate the news and sell early while day traders are able to notice the strength in the price action and buy later and still make a nice profit. I've taken profits throughout the day, but also trying to be a bit greedy. If you think about it the stock has been real weak, lots of FUD, and Elon just told everyone they had a record month. No reason why we shouldn't continue to go up over the next couple of days (maybe a neutral or slightly red day while people take profits or overall negative day in the markets).
I also think a lesson is that you don't have to always be in early. I didn't get to buy in yesterday since I wasn't by a computer so had to buy in this morning when we opened around 230. I hesitated a couple of times but fortunate enough to pull the trigger. Lesson is you don't have to always catch the falling knife, you can buy in after the up trend has started an still make decent returns.
Now the real question is, anyone holding through tomorrow?�
1/1/2015
guest �
1/1/2015
guest I sold 2/3 of my weeklies at $242. Keeping the rest in case there is more room to run with a delayed squeeze tomorrow (margin calls). I expect a spike up in the morning tomorrow and then who knows. This was the second biggest gainer for me in weeklies since the Detroit Auto Show (and that was 10x this in profit!).
I hadn't bought any weekly calls for many months now and I think I prefer it that way - only use them when there is an obvious downward overreaction with a high chance to quickly reverse (or weekly puts if it goes up for no good reason). I used to nibble on them all the time but I became numb to their risk and potential.�
1/1/2015
guest Taking profit isn't just OK, it's the ultimate point of short-term options trades. I too have learned that for my portfolio, weekly options and other short-term instruments are to be used to take advantage of overly large price movements that one expects to reverse, or particular data that the market is not interpreting correctly, only when one has a sound thesis to back them up. Otherwise, might as well be in Vegas.
As for core shares, no I don't think it's wise to move in and out of those with great frequency. Have a strategy that isn't just following the herd, buy and hold for the long-term investment thesis, and never risk what you can't afford to lose.
Caveat: I am not a financial advisor, please invest at your own risk and don't do what I say.�
1/1/2015
guest I wouldn't say you always have to be in when the news hits. I made a lot on what I bought this morning. And I also made some more on what I bought with profits this afternoon. Though I haven't closed that position yet. That speculation for a continued rally tomorrow.
I also bought some weekly otm puts near market close today in case there is a pull back tomorrow. I'm actually hoping for a pull back then continue the rally, that way I can make money off of both positions. Time will tell, but hey, that's what we pay for by buying otm weekly options.
I'm trying to learn how to play both sides.
I would rather sell too soon than hold too long. I have had many times when I held too long only to see all those gains vanish into thin air. Never regret taking a profit too early.�
1/1/2015
guest So today I am feeling the pain of not being able to sell off those options... but I am still up nicely for the week so far and if we can recover back to where we closed yesterday and then propel forward tomorrow I should still come out about the same which will make me very happy. I am still up 150% for the week on my TSLA option portfolio, so I really can't complain�
1/1/2015
guest I remember someone posted an article somewhere which had Jerome Guillen (I think?) commenting on battery prices and it was in German (I think?). Does anybody still have a link to that article? Perhaps it wasn't Jerome Guillen and it wasn't in German, but the article was about Tesla's battery prices and included these numbers: $186/kWh, $130/kWh.�
1/1/2015
guest Excellent interview with J�r�me Guillien�
1/1/2015
guest TSLA is about where it was at the beginning of the month. What a roller coaster... up to $260 in the wake of the 'D' announcement, down to $222 on the fabricated news from Ward's, back to just under $240 today.
I am left wondering if the stock will rise on the hype of potential Q3 earnings. There are lots of unknowns. X marks the spot with the buried treasure?�
1/1/2015
guest Thanks MikeC, but that wasn't it. I just found it: Elon Musks Gigafactory: - manager magazin�
1/1/2015
guest Not seeing the 186 number. The article says the price is somewhere between 200 and 300. Which I think everyone knows this... If it is actually 186 that would be per big news! 136 by 2017/2018 is pretty bold. And on a nice party toward 100 or less needed to hit full cost parity to an ICE.�
1/1/2015
guest if you read the 3rd page http://www.manager-magazin.de/unternehmen/autoindustrie/tesla-chefentwickler-jerome-guillen-im-interview-a-998892-3.html Gerome says that Elon's goal is to reduce the battery costs up to 30% but he says this is a "very conservative" assumption as they want to acheive cleary more than that. Halving the price should be possible.�
1/1/2015
guest I get that, that is where the 136 number comes from, I assume. But what about the 186? Are you suggesting that is just the conservative 30% that Jerome was suggesting?
If 136 is half then currently they would be paying 274 (which seems a little high... but I will go with it). A 30% reduction from that would be 191... so that doesn't seem quite right either... I am still confused on what the 186 number is supposed to be.
- - - Updated - - -
In other news, if we get a run up from this Barclays note I am selling off my options for sure before the ER. It does seem like the premarket is currently down though, so we shall see.�
1/1/2015
guest sorry, haven't found any numbers you are mentioning. But, yes, according to the interview, Guillen says that the 30% intended cost reduction is a very conservative estimation.
pre-market is a bit down due to concerns that Fed might increase interest rates erlier than anticipated.
despite the good news:
�
1/1/2015
guest The article that 32no posted had this in it (from google translate):
And he was also the one with the 186 number... so don't look at me, I am just as confused on that one.�
1/1/2015
guest Whelp, this morning I sorta screwed up my sale... got out of my 232.50 options today at the open and was clicking through the screen too fast because I was half distracted by other things going on, that I sold them for way less than I meant to, but oh well, a win is a win. I am happy enough with about 250% return on this. Too bad I couldn't sell it back two days ago when I wanted to because it would have been north of 7.00, but I have learned that being in restricted funds is no good and to be careful about trying something like that again in the future.�
1/1/2015
guest You made 250% buying a phantom derivative product using money you didn't have that day, by pushing buttons on a computer (or phone). Don't beat yourself up�
1/1/2015
guest +1�
1/1/2015
guest I should print this out and tape it to the top of my monitor. I need that reminder often.�
1/1/2015
guest Haha! Thanks�
1/1/2015
guest Does anyone know when 2017 LEAPs will come out?�
1/1/2015
guest Nov 17th�
1/1/2015
guest Originally Posted by austinEV
You made 250% buying a phantom derivative product using money you didn't have that day, by pushing buttons on a computer (or phone). Don't beat yourself up :smile:
Still, such hard work can leave some sore callouses. :crying:�
1/1/2015
guest So I'm out of puts. I sold my last put position at a sliver of a profit this morning (capturing 240 -> 236) just in case this Barclay's report is tradable.
It seems that the market has ignored it.
This ER is very hard to determine. I'm trying to figure out the low end scenario and I'm less confident that Tesla had a bad quarter. The headline numbers, much to the chagrin of Tesla bears is going to be pretty good because of the ZEV credits. If Tesla is able to significantly beat guidance, then non-GAAP EPS should be positive. Of all ER's, this one might be ... a lot of nothing as far as the stock goes. But that's really hard to assume since it's Tesla and and well... one has to factor in the Elon Musk wild card. We might even get a small pop, then a drag down until something new comes like P85D reviews.
If you subscribe to the alternating quarter theory, we are due for a down ER. (Q3 '13 down, Q4 up, Q1 down, Q2 up ... ). I definitely want to go in with some sort of cheap insurance puts... maybe 210's for Nov 14. I bought some $250 calls for Nov 7 which I intend on getting rid of before ER and Jan15 $265's which I intend to hold through ER. This is all outside of core TSLA holdings.�
1/1/2015
guest Kind of interesting that the Barclays report didn't show up on the Yahoo news stream on my phone.�
1/1/2015
guest I was thinking the same thing. Checked my computer a couple times today just to see if it would pop up. Elon gets a hang nail and it is reported. Barclays claims a 15% delivery beat and...nothing.�
1/1/2015
guest Doom and gloom about Q3 results have characterized the price action for the last 6 weeks. We are off of the ATH's because of the generally accepted notion that results will be at or slightly below guidance. So, I am not concerned about that. If that comes to pass I expect no noteworthy move, or a small move down. Or, we could get our first ironic bad news rally because the bad news is out, digested and no longer weighing things down (sort of the opposite of the stock plunging after good results are announced).
Given that so much gloom is priced in, I expect some other aspect of the letter or call to be the catalyst. Forward guidance, news about the X, or news about demand. Really it wouldn't take much to seem like really good news based on how much gloom is priced in.
I am not sure if the price will go up after the announcement, but I think it will rise smartly in the weeks that follow.�
1/1/2015
guest Sorry, the $186 number turned out not to be in the article, the $130 target was in the article, and $186 is what price you would get if you assume 30% savings. Sorry about that lack of clarification, I didn't remember the article to well, and I guess I fudged in the $186 which I calculated.�
1/1/2015
guest almost all of tsla reports are preceded by significant 4 week declines, based on my memory. The day of the report and day before usually present large swings down. This so far not unusual activity�
1/1/2015
guest Yeah the key seems to always be that if we are down pre ER we have a good chance of going up and same the other way.�
1/1/2015
guest I need to stop scheduling meetings at 9am Friday mornings. Today looks like it could be an exciting day.�
1/1/2015
guest I know how you feel, except I don't generally control most of my meeting scheduling. It was a good thing Wed I couldn't really touch anything because I had a meeting at 10AM that lasted until 11AM and had to travel to get there and travel back which basically threw out the entire morning trading session for me. If I had wanted to trade, I don't think I could have.�
1/1/2015
guest Tesla is opening a new store this week. This may not be big news, but its in my town, just 3 miles from my home. Decatur, GA will have the second Tesla store in the greater Atlanta area. A third store, without service, will come to Lenox Mall in Buckhead. EV sales are quite strong. Residents get a $5000 tax break from the state, in addition to the federal $7500 tax incentive.
I may just need to test drive the D with Autopilot before too long. I actually drive by the new store every day. So there it is, mocking me. What's weird is that I had not noticed it until this weekend.�
1/1/2015
guest The investor forums are a lot less frothy than previous quarters where things were bid up really high and then took a tumble. Perhaps that's a good sign that expectations are tempered and poised to move the other way with a good call. I expect Elon to be upbeat and Willy Wonka-like, much like he was at the last conference when he said we only got to see half the deck.�
1/1/2015
guest I'm really looking forward to tonight (it's the middle of the night for me). Hoping for a little bull run today fueled by pre ER optimism and 5 stars in Euro-NCAP.�
1/1/2015
guest My prediction is that they have really ramped up production, and will be announced today. Wait times have gone from 4-5 months to one month. I don't believe that demand has waned. 2,000 P85Ds have been ordered which should have increased the wait times, but that hasn't been the case.�
1/1/2015
guest So what is the overall consensus for tonight with regards to people's position. Are the majority of the members of the forum cutting back their positions, holding, or adding prior to tonight? I have Jan 16 280 strike calls which I have no problem holding through earnings tonight. I also have March 15 300 strike calls which I'm not sure what to do with (hold or close out). There are good arguments for closing them (ie slightly bad earnings tonight) or for holding them (model x reveal perhaps in Jan and another earnings event in Feb). Any suggestions on the latter would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.�
1/1/2015
guest This pretty much sums up my opinion as well. The amount of delivered cars +/- compared to guidance isn't so relevant, even though the markets and bots might react to that initially. I think it's what Elon says in the CC that determines how the share price fares the coming weeks/months. Hopefully Elon will pull out some gold nuggets from his hat.�
1/1/2015
guest Can you share more info on the 2000 P85D orders? I havn't seen anything yet.�
1/1/2015
guest OK. Most of us are LONG TSLA, but as this is the Short Term Social chat........any predictions?
Close today: 248 (due to election and 5* crash rating)
AH close today: 235 ( I think we hit deliveries/just miss production ) EPS .01 (Elon said we would show a slight +)...but it will because of ZEV credits (not sure how market will react)
close tomorrow: $230 (FUDsters will hit hard)
long term: lots of good things coming ( ex: model X reveal/ beat 35K guidance; huge EPS Q4) $300 May 2015
Wild card...as always...EM CC: He could blow my predictions up big time......I hope he does. While I am sitting on cash to buy post ER, long term it will not matter if I buy in at 220 or 260.
edit: And, I am wrong out of the gait�
1/1/2015
guest I got out of Jan 15 calls in favor of Mar 15 and Jan 16 because I want there to be enough time for a recovery if the stock dives and because the Detroit Auto Show and Q4 report should be good positive catalysts. I've also had some protective puts that I was hoping to sell on a pre-ER dive which appears to be in progress as I type.�
1/1/2015
guest I'm still mostly doing nothing. If we are under $230 by close maybe I'll buy some shorter term options. I have March options I bought the first time we hit $240 and then $220. If things go bad I will probably buy June options next week or so. Mostly I'm looking forward to next year. Still, little things like stating how many P85Ds are on order or a high production run rate might make today the last time we ever see the $230s. I am certainly interested in this shareholder letter but of course I look forward to every letter because you never know what the latest news will be.�
1/1/2015
guest Based on past history I think you have it backwards
It will be a drop today and then rise tomorrow. All the good ERs have traded flat to down on the day of the Earnings (before the evening announcement) and then it shoots up after hours never to return from whence it came! Given all the macro-low sentiment and the TSLA low sentiment I think it won't take much to be a surprise on the earnings and if we are lucky it will be a HUGE surprise�
1/1/2015
guest With the drop this morning I am feeling more bullish that we are set up for a positive surprise. I bought a handful of weekly calls at 200 and 210 strikes (very little time premium in those).�
1/1/2015
guest and based on this mornings drop I have bought a single call at 245 for this week at 6.15. I am willing to gamble on this drop today being totally uncalled for (macro movement mostly) and the earnings information tonight will call for a return and shoot up into 250+ and beyond. That is my prediction (I need it to hit ~250 in order for this gamble to pay out for me).
I figure this is all totally uncalled for and that we have enough information to safely say that Tesla will come inline with guidance with a decent chance for a surprise... which as previously stated even coming inline with guidance would be a beat on the current expectations because the market is projecting a miss.�
1/1/2015
guest I am recklessly long going into this ER, with hopes of a relentless run tomorrow and onwards.
Short term wise, I'm holding J15 260's and M15 280's into tonight, and added a few of each on the dip this morning below 233.
Good luck folks.�
1/1/2015
guest I also threw out another low ball limit order at 5.00 on the same 245 strike, if the price continues to stay low and I get that one to trigger, I think we will easily get a 5%-10% pop tomorrow alone and possibly continue to run up on Friday.�
1/1/2015
guest My feeling is that we will go up, just because we are already pretty low and it seems expectations are low.
I have a few puts, I also bought a lottery ticket with week 2 dec 290's. I have been making my plays this ER with that week because the IV is much lower at that point. This week's IV is higher than SpaceX rockets. I have a call and a put for this week that I bought last week, I will probably sell them before close today. The put is up 50% and the call is down around 40%.�
1/1/2015
guest Buying weekly ITM calls now. Can't resist
(I need to call 1-800-STOPGAMBLING). I can't shake the feeling that it's possible to outsmart the casino on this one...�
1/1/2015
guest I sold a 200/210-270/280 Iron condor. Hopefully we end up between 210 and 270, but of course 270 would be preferred.�
1/1/2015
guest This dip in QQQ and TSLA feels overly sharp on nothing legitimate. I am day trading this dip ever so slightly.�
1/1/2015
guest Good luck my friend. I am slowly offloading some 240 puts and buying 200s. I may grab some lotto ticket calls (Nov 14) at the 275-280 range. But it will be a small play and gives me something to watch today.�
1/1/2015
guest So you're sticking to the original plan huh?�
1/1/2015
guest Yes. :wink:�
1/1/2015
guest Totally right there with you. Like I told myself leading up to this Friday, Monday, and even Yesturday... there is no point in buying, the IV crush is going to kill you... just wait... just wait. But the stupid crazy drop today, just doesn't make any sense at all which gives even more hope of a positive jump tomorrow to blow through the IV crush. This is going to be interesting, maybe we all need to go to gambling anonymous�
1/1/2015
guest I for one hope the fish are jumping in the boat�
1/1/2015
guest Thanks for everyone's input. With the selloff today prior to earnings, and with everyone's encouraging words, I will hold onto my March 15 calls.�
1/1/2015
guest I'm full long again. I hope I made the right decision. I no longer have any puts.�
1/1/2015
guest This belongs in the newbie thread, but....
So, when you buy ITM calls, does that mean you will simply yield the "cream" off a rise, at much lower cost than buying the stock?
So, if you pay $20(00) for a 11/22 220 contract, once the stock hits 240, you will yield a buck for each point above 240....so a rise to 260 will return (approx) 100% profit?�
1/1/2015
guest Yes. The time value cost much less with these calls than the ATM or OTM ones. But you tie up more capital.�
1/1/2015
guest so far this is like all the other day of report trading except the downward trend less severe percentage wise. expect to drop further. i am not making any claims about the report (although i do expect a beat). will sell half my puts later today and hold the rest through tomorrow just in case. the puts were not meant to be a day trade for me but insurance to take the sting out of potential loss.�
1/1/2015
guest I got weeklies with a 200 strike. The stock was 235 at the time and I paid about 36-37 for them. So only 1-2 dollars of time value "cost". You get less leverage but it is still possible to make money off of a relatively small stock movement. My breakeven is only 237.
(Remember to sell weeklies before expiration so you don't buy thousands of shares of stock�
1/1/2015
guest So the puts were utilized to protect shares? and by selling half of the puts today, you are going into the report net long, ie shares to put ratio of 2:1? Thanks.�
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